From e2f197c7fe90f4752ef3dd03c1520b321f07c068 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini <hzambran@users.noreply.github.com>
Date: Fri, 23 Nov 2012 18:31:25 +0000
Subject: [PATCH] added vignette and some figures
---
inst/vignette/agufull08.bst | 1828 ++
inst/vignette/figures/f01bvign.pdf | Bin 0 -> 6374 bytes
inst/vignette/figures/f01vign.pdf | Bin 0 -> 60595 bytes
inst/vignette/figures/f02vign.pdf | Bin 0 -> 65917 bytes
inst/vignette/figures/f03vign.pdf | Bin 0 -> 67275 bytes
inst/vignette/figures/fega01.jpg | Bin 0 -> 78856 bytes
inst/vignette/figures/swathydroPSO.pdf | Bin 0 -> 80704 bytes
inst/vignette/hydroPSO_vignette.Rnw | 1789 ++
inst/vignette/references.bib | 32507 +++++++++++++++++++++++
9 files changed, 36124 insertions(+)
create mode 100755 inst/vignette/agufull08.bst
create mode 100644 inst/vignette/figures/f01bvign.pdf
create mode 100644 inst/vignette/figures/f01vign.pdf
create mode 100644 inst/vignette/figures/f02vign.pdf
create mode 100644 inst/vignette/figures/f03vign.pdf
create mode 100644 inst/vignette/figures/fega01.jpg
create mode 100644 inst/vignette/figures/swathydroPSO.pdf
create mode 100644 inst/vignette/hydroPSO_vignette.Rnw
create mode 100644 inst/vignette/references.bib
diff --git a/inst/vignette/agufull08.bst b/inst/vignette/agufull08.bst
new file mode 100755
index 0000000..c4a69f6
--- /dev/null
+++ b/inst/vignette/agufull08.bst
@@ -0,0 +1,1828 @@
+%%
+%% This is file `agufull08.bst',
+%% generated with the docstrip utility.
+%%
+%% The original source files were:
+%%
+%% merlin.mbs (with options: `head,ay,nat,seq-labc,nm-rev1,jnrlst,lab,lab-it,keyxyr,blkyear,dt-beg,yr-par,xmth,note-yr,thtit-a,trnum-it,vol-it,volp-com,pgsep-c,num-xser,ser-vol,ser-ed,pg-bk,pg-pre,pre-edn,agu-doi,doi,edpar,bkedcap,edby,blk-com,pp,ed,abr,ednx,xedn,jabr,and-com,em-it,nfss,{}')
+%% physjour.mbs (with options: `ay,nat,seq-labc,nm-rev1,jnrlst,lab,lab-it,keyxyr,blkyear,dt-beg,yr-par,xmth,note-yr,thtit-a,trnum-it,vol-it,volp-com,pgsep-c,num-xser,ser-vol,ser-ed,pg-bk,pg-pre,pre-edn,agu-doi,doi,edpar,bkedcap,edby,blk-com,pp,ed,abr,ednx,xedn,jabr,and-com,em-it,nfss,{}')
+%% geojour.mbs (with options: `ay,nat,seq-labc,nm-rev1,jnrlst,lab,lab-it,keyxyr,blkyear,dt-beg,yr-par,xmth,note-yr,thtit-a,trnum-it,vol-it,volp-com,pgsep-c,num-xser,ser-vol,ser-ed,pg-bk,pg-pre,pre-edn,agu-doi,doi,edpar,bkedcap,edby,blk-com,pp,ed,abr,ednx,xedn,jabr,and-com,em-it,nfss,{}')
+%% photjour.mbs (with options: `ay,nat,seq-labc,nm-rev1,jnrlst,lab,lab-it,keyxyr,blkyear,dt-beg,yr-par,xmth,note-yr,thtit-a,trnum-it,vol-it,volp-com,pgsep-c,num-xser,ser-vol,ser-ed,pg-bk,pg-pre,pre-edn,agu-doi,doi,edpar,bkedcap,edby,blk-com,pp,ed,abr,ednx,xedn,jabr,and-com,em-it,nfss,{}')
+%% merlin.mbs (with options: `tail,ay,nat,seq-labc,nm-rev1,jnrlst,lab,lab-it,keyxyr,blkyear,dt-beg,yr-par,xmth,note-yr,thtit-a,trnum-it,vol-it,volp-com,pgsep-c,num-xser,ser-vol,ser-ed,pg-bk,pg-pre,pre-edn,agu-doi,doi,edpar,bkedcap,edby,blk-com,pp,ed,abr,ednx,xedn,jabr,and-com,em-it,nfss,{}')
+%% ----------------------------------------
+%% *** For journals of the American Geophysical Union ***
+%% *** NOTE: this version does not limit the number of authors in ref list.
+%% *** Use agu08.bst to limit authors to maximum 9.
+%% ***
+%% ----------------------------------------
+%% *** Version 3.1 from 2008/08/27
+%% *** Multiple authors of same first author and year now in order of citation
+%% *** and other minor fixes
+%% *** Renamed to agu08.bst and agufull08.bst
+%% ***
+%% *** Version 3.0 from 2004/02/06
+%% *** Changed date format for AGU journals
+%% *** The date now appears in parentheses after authors
+%% ***
+%% *** Version 2.2 from 2003/06/26
+%% *** (with bug fix from 2003/08/19)
+%% *** Includes new fields eid and doi
+%% *** The eid is what the AGU calls "citation number"
+%% *** and doi is the DOI number; both of these are
+%% *** used as substitution for page number
+%% *** The issue number is now also included as
+%% *** 84(3) for vol. 84, nr. 3
+%% ***
+%% *** Version 2.1d from 1999/05/20
+%% *** Book editors done right as P. James (Ed.),
+%% *** Missing italics with some authors fixed
+%% ***
+%% *** Version 2.1c from 1999/02/11
+%% *** This version does not crash older BibTeX installations with
+%% *** more than 3000 wiz-functions
+%% ***
+%% *** Version 2.1b from 1997/11/18
+%% *** (page numbers over 9999 are broken with commas, as 12,345)
+%% ***
+%% *** Version 2.1a from 1997/05/26
+%% *** (contains improvements from copy editor comments,
+%% *** notes added with first word lowercase (bug in 2.1 fixed)
+%% *** and journal `number' never output
+%% *** abbreviation for grl corrected)
+%% ***
+%%
+%% Copyright 1994-2008 Patrick W Daly
+ % ===============================================================
+ % IMPORTANT NOTICE:
+ % This bibliographic style (bst) file has been generated from one or
+ % more master bibliographic style (mbs) files, listed above.
+ %
+ % This generated file can be redistributed and/or modified under the terms
+ % of the LaTeX Project Public License Distributed from CTAN
+ % archives in directory macros/latex/base/lppl.txt; either
+ % version 1 of the License, or any later version.
+ % ===============================================================
+ % Name and version information of the main mbs file:
+ % \ProvidesFile{merlin.mbs}[2008/08/27 4.30 (PWD, AO, DPC)]
+ % For use with BibTeX version 0.99a or later
+ %-------------------------------------------------------------------
+ % This bibliography style file is intended for texts in ENGLISH
+ % This is an author-year citation style bibliography. As such, it is
+ % non-standard LaTeX, and requires a special package file to function properly.
+ % Such a package is natbib.sty by Patrick W. Daly
+ % The form of the \bibitem entries is
+ % \bibitem[Jones et al.(1990)]{key}...
+ % \bibitem[Jones et al.(1990)Jones, Baker, and Smith]{key}...
+ % The essential feature is that the label (the part in brackets) consists
+ % of the author names, as they should appear in the citation, with the year
+ % in parentheses following. There must be no space before the opening
+ % parenthesis!
+ % With natbib v5.3, a full list of authors may also follow the year.
+ % In natbib.sty, it is possible to define the type of enclosures that is
+ % really wanted (brackets or parentheses), but in either case, there must
+ % be parentheses in the label.
+ % The \cite command functions as follows:
+ % \citet{key} ==>> Jones et al. (1990)
+ % \citet*{key} ==>> Jones, Baker, and Smith (1990)
+ % \citep{key} ==>> (Jones et al., 1990)
+ % \citep*{key} ==>> (Jones, Baker, and Smith, 1990)
+ % \citep[chap. 2]{key} ==>> (Jones et al., 1990, chap. 2)
+ % \citep[e.g.][]{key} ==>> (e.g. Jones et al., 1990)
+ % \citep[e.g.][p. 32]{key} ==>> (e.g. Jones et al., 1990, p. 32)
+ % \citeauthor{key} ==>> Jones et al.
+ % \citeauthor*{key} ==>> Jones, Baker, and Smith
+ % \citeyear{key} ==>> 1990
+ %---------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+ENTRY
+ { address
+ author
+ booktitle
+ chapter
+ doi
+ edition
+ editor
+ eid
+ howpublished
+ institution
+ journal
+ key
+ month
+ note
+ number
+ organization
+ pages
+ publisher
+ school
+ series
+ title
+ type
+ volume
+ year
+ }
+ {}
+ { label extra.label sort.label short.list }
+INTEGERS { output.state before.all mid.sentence after.sentence after.block }
+FUNCTION {init.state.consts}
+{ #0 'before.all :=
+ #1 'mid.sentence :=
+ #2 'after.sentence :=
+ #3 'after.block :=
+}
+STRINGS { s t}
+FUNCTION {output.nonnull}
+{ 's :=
+ output.state mid.sentence =
+ { ", " * write$ }
+ { output.state after.block =
+ { add.period$ write$
+ newline$
+ "\newblock " write$
+ }
+ { output.state before.all =
+ 'write$
+ { add.period$ " " * write$ }
+ if$
+ }
+ if$
+ mid.sentence 'output.state :=
+ }
+ if$
+ s
+}
+FUNCTION {output}
+{ duplicate$ empty$
+ 'pop$
+ 'output.nonnull
+ if$
+}
+FUNCTION {output.check}
+{ 't :=
+ duplicate$ empty$
+ { pop$ "empty " t * " in " * cite$ * warning$ }
+ 'output.nonnull
+ if$
+}
+FUNCTION {fin.entry}
+{ add.period$
+ write$
+ newline$
+}
+
+FUNCTION {new.block}
+{ output.state before.all =
+ 'skip$
+ { after.block 'output.state := }
+ if$
+}
+FUNCTION {new.sentence}
+{ output.state after.block =
+ 'skip$
+ { output.state before.all =
+ 'skip$
+ { after.sentence 'output.state := }
+ if$
+ }
+ if$
+}
+FUNCTION {add.blank}
+{ " " * before.all 'output.state :=
+}
+
+FUNCTION {date.block}
+{
+ skip$
+}
+
+FUNCTION {not}
+{ { #0 }
+ { #1 }
+ if$
+}
+FUNCTION {and}
+{ 'skip$
+ { pop$ #0 }
+ if$
+}
+FUNCTION {or}
+{ { pop$ #1 }
+ 'skip$
+ if$
+}
+FUNCTION {new.block.checkb}
+{ empty$
+ swap$ empty$
+ and
+ 'skip$
+ 'new.block
+ if$
+}
+FUNCTION {field.or.null}
+{ duplicate$ empty$
+ { pop$ "" }
+ 'skip$
+ if$
+}
+FUNCTION {emphasize}
+{ duplicate$ empty$
+ { pop$ "" }
+ { "\textit{" swap$ * "}" * }
+ if$
+}
+FUNCTION {cite.name.font}
+{ emphasize }
+FUNCTION {tie.or.space.prefix}
+{ duplicate$ text.length$ #3 <
+ { "~" }
+ { " " }
+ if$
+ swap$
+}
+
+FUNCTION {capitalize}
+{ "u" change.case$ "t" change.case$ }
+
+FUNCTION {space.word}
+{ " " swap$ * " " * }
+ % Here are the language-specific definitions for explicit words.
+ % Each function has a name bbl.xxx where xxx is the English word.
+ % The language selected here is ENGLISH
+FUNCTION {bbl.and}
+{ "and"}
+
+FUNCTION {bbl.etal}
+{ "et~al." }
+
+FUNCTION {bbl.editors}
+{ "eds." }
+
+FUNCTION {bbl.editor}
+{ "ed." }
+
+FUNCTION {bbl.edby}
+{ "edited by" }
+
+FUNCTION {bbl.edition}
+{ "ed." }
+
+FUNCTION {bbl.volume}
+{ "vol." }
+
+FUNCTION {bbl.of}
+{ "of" }
+
+FUNCTION {bbl.number}
+{ "no." }
+
+FUNCTION {bbl.nr}
+{ "no." }
+
+FUNCTION {bbl.in}
+{ "in" }
+
+FUNCTION {bbl.pages}
+{ "pp." }
+
+FUNCTION {bbl.page}
+{ "p." }
+
+FUNCTION {bbl.chapter}
+{ "chap." }
+
+FUNCTION {bbl.techrep}
+{ "Tech. Rep." }
+
+FUNCTION {bbl.mthesis}
+{ "Master's thesis" }
+
+FUNCTION {bbl.phdthesis}
+{ "Ph.D. thesis" }
+
+MACRO {jan} {"Jan."}
+
+MACRO {feb} {"Feb."}
+
+MACRO {mar} {"Mar."}
+
+MACRO {apr} {"Apr."}
+
+MACRO {may} {"May"}
+
+MACRO {jun} {"Jun."}
+
+MACRO {jul} {"Jul."}
+
+MACRO {aug} {"Aug."}
+
+MACRO {sep} {"Sep."}
+
+MACRO {oct} {"Oct."}
+
+MACRO {nov} {"Nov."}
+
+MACRO {dec} {"Dec."}
+
+ %-------------------------------------------------------------------
+ % Begin module:
+ % \ProvidesFile{physjour.mbs}[2002/01/14 2.2 (PWD)]
+MACRO {aa}{"Astron. \& Astrophys."}
+MACRO {aasup}{"Astron. \& Astrophys. Suppl. Ser."}
+MACRO {aj} {"Astron. J."}
+MACRO {aph} {"Acta Phys."}
+MACRO {advp} {"Adv. Phys."}
+MACRO {ajp} {"Amer. J. Phys."}
+MACRO {ajm} {"Amer. J. Math."}
+MACRO {amsci} {"Amer. Sci."}
+MACRO {anofd} {"Ann. Fluid Dyn."}
+MACRO {am} {"Ann. Math."}
+MACRO {ap} {"Ann. Phys. (NY)"}
+MACRO {adp} {"Ann. Phys. (Leipzig)"}
+MACRO {ao} {"Appl. Opt."}
+MACRO {apl} {"Appl. Phys. Lett."}
+MACRO {app} {"Astroparticle Phys."}
+MACRO {apj} {"Astrophys. J."}
+MACRO {apjsup} {"Astrophys. J. Suppl."}
+MACRO {apss} {"Astrophys. Space Sci."}
+MACRO {araa} {"Ann. Rev. Astron. Astrophys."}
+MACRO {baas} {"Bull. Amer. Astron. Soc."}
+MACRO {baps} {"Bull. Amer. Phys. Soc."}
+MACRO {cmp} {"Comm. Math. Phys."}
+MACRO {cpam} {"Commun. Pure Appl. Math."}
+MACRO {cppcf} {"Comm. Plasma Phys. \& Controlled Fusion"}
+MACRO {cpc} {"Comp. Phys. Comm."}
+MACRO {cqg} {"Class. Quant. Grav."}
+MACRO {cra} {"C. R. Acad. Sci. A"}
+MACRO {fed} {"Fusion Eng. \& Design"}
+MACRO {ft} {"Fusion Tech."}
+MACRO {grg} {"Gen. Relativ. Gravit."}
+MACRO {ieeens} {"IEEE Trans. Nucl. Sci."}
+MACRO {ieeeps} {"IEEE Trans. Plasma Sci."}
+MACRO {ijimw} {"Interntl. J. Infrared \& Millimeter Waves"}
+MACRO {ip} {"Infrared Phys."}
+MACRO {irp} {"Infrared Phys."}
+MACRO {jap} {"J. Appl. Phys."}
+MACRO {jasa} {"J. Acoust. Soc. America"}
+MACRO {jcp} {"J. Comp. Phys."}
+MACRO {jetp} {"Sov. Phys.--JETP"}
+MACRO {jfe} {"J. Fusion Energy"}
+MACRO {jfm} {"J. Fluid Mech."}
+MACRO {jmp} {"J. Math. Phys."}
+MACRO {jne} {"J. Nucl. Energy"}
+MACRO {jnec} {"J. Nucl. Energy, C: Plasma Phys., Accelerators, Thermonucl. Res."}
+MACRO {jnm} {"J. Nucl. Mat."}
+MACRO {jpc} {"J. Phys. Chem."}
+MACRO {jpp} {"J. Plasma Phys."}
+MACRO {jpsj} {"J. Phys. Soc. Japan"}
+MACRO {jsi} {"J. Sci. Instrum."}
+MACRO {jvst} {"J. Vac. Sci. \& Tech."}
+MACRO {nat} {"Nature"}
+MACRO {nature} {"Nature"}
+MACRO {nedf} {"Nucl. Eng. \& Design/Fusion"}
+MACRO {nf} {"Nucl. Fusion"}
+MACRO {nim} {"Nucl. Inst. \& Meth."}
+MACRO {nimpr} {"Nucl. Inst. \& Meth. in Phys. Res."}
+MACRO {np} {"Nucl. Phys."}
+MACRO {npb} {"Nucl. Phys. B"}
+MACRO {nt/f} {"Nucl. Tech./Fusion"}
+MACRO {npbpc} {"Nucl. Phys. B (Proc. Suppl.)"}
+MACRO {inc} {"Nuovo Cimento"}
+MACRO {nc} {"Nuovo Cimento"}
+MACRO {pf} {"Phys. Fluids"}
+MACRO {pfa} {"Phys. Fluids A: Fluid Dyn."}
+MACRO {pfb} {"Phys. Fluids B: Plasma Phys."}
+MACRO {pl} {"Phys. Lett."}
+MACRO {pla} {"Phys. Lett. A"}
+MACRO {plb} {"Phys. Lett. B"}
+MACRO {prep} {"Phys. Rep."}
+MACRO {pnas} {"Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA"}
+MACRO {pp} {"Phys. Plasmas"}
+MACRO {ppcf} {"Plasma Phys. \& Controlled Fusion"}
+MACRO {phitrsl} {"Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc. London"}
+MACRO {prl} {"Phys. Rev. Lett."}
+MACRO {pr} {"Phys. Rev."}
+MACRO {physrev} {"Phys. Rev."}
+MACRO {pra} {"Phys. Rev. A"}
+MACRO {prb} {"Phys. Rev. B"}
+MACRO {prc} {"Phys. Rev. C"}
+MACRO {prd} {"Phys. Rev. D"}
+MACRO {pre} {"Phys. Rev. E"}
+MACRO {ps} {"Phys. Scripta"}
+MACRO {procrsl} {"Proc. Roy. Soc. London"}
+MACRO {rmp} {"Rev. Mod. Phys."}
+MACRO {rsi} {"Rev. Sci. Inst."}
+MACRO {science} {"Science"}
+MACRO {sciam} {"Sci. Am."}
+MACRO {sam} {"Stud. Appl. Math."}
+MACRO {sjpp} {"Sov. J. Plasma Phys."}
+MACRO {spd} {"Sov. Phys.--Doklady"}
+MACRO {sptp} {"Sov. Phys.--Tech. Phys."}
+MACRO {spu} {"Sov. Phys.--Uspeki"}
+MACRO {st} {"Sky and Telesc."}
+ % End module: physjour.mbs
+ %-------------------------------------------------------------------
+ % Begin module:
+ % \ProvidesFile{geojour.mbs}[2002/07/10 2.0h (PWD)]
+MACRO {aisr} {"Adv. Space Res."}
+MACRO {ag} {"Ann. Geophys."}
+MACRO {anigeo} {"Ann. Geofis."}
+MACRO {angl} {"Ann. Glaciol."}
+MACRO {andmet} {"Ann. d. Meteor."}
+MACRO {andgeo} {"Ann. d. Geophys."}
+MACRO {andphy} {"Ann. Phys.-Paris"}
+MACRO {afmgb} {"Arch. Meteor. Geophys. Bioklimatol."}
+MACRO {atph} {"Atm\'osphera"}
+MACRO {aao} {"Atmos. Ocean"}
+MACRO {ass}{"Astrophys. Space Sci."}
+MACRO {atenv} {"Atmos. Environ."}
+MACRO {aujag} {"Aust. J. Agr. Res."}
+MACRO {aumet} {"Aust. Meteorol. Mag."}
+MACRO {blmet} {"Bound.-Lay. Meteorol."}
+MACRO {bams} {"Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc."}
+MACRO {cch} {"Clim. Change"}
+MACRO {cdyn} {"Clim. Dynam."}
+MACRO {cbul} {"Climatol. Bull."}
+MACRO {cap} {"Contrib. Atmos. Phys."}
+MACRO {dsr} {"Deep-Sea Res."}
+MACRO {dhz} {"Dtsch. Hydrogr. Z."}
+MACRO {dao} {"Dynam. Atmos. Oceans"}
+MACRO {eco} {"Ecology"}
+MACRO {empl}{"Earth, Moon and Planets"}
+MACRO {envres} {"Environ. Res."}
+MACRO {envst} {"Environ. Sci. Technol."}
+MACRO {ecms} {"Estuarine Coastal Mar. Sci."}
+MACRO {expa}{"Exper. Astron."}
+MACRO {geoint} {"Geofis. Int."}
+MACRO {geopub} {"Geofys. Publ."}
+MACRO {geogeo} {"Geol. Geofiz."}
+MACRO {gafd} {"Geophys. Astrophys. Fluid Dyn."}
+MACRO {gfd} {"Geophys. Fluid Dyn."}
+MACRO {geomag} {"Geophys. Mag."}
+MACRO {georl} {"Geophys. Res. Lett."}
+MACRO {grl} {"Geophys. Res. Lett."}
+MACRO {ga} {"Geophysica"}
+MACRO {gs} {"Geophysics"}
+MACRO {ieeetap} {"IEEE Trans. Antenn. Propag."}
+MACRO {ijawp} {"Int. J. Air Water Pollut."}
+MACRO {ijc} {"Int. J. Climatol."}
+MACRO {ijrs} {"Int. J. Remote Sens."}
+MACRO {jam} {"J. Appl. Meteorol."}
+MACRO {jaot} {"J. Atmos. Ocean. Technol."}
+MACRO {jatp} {"J. Atmos. Terr. Phys."}
+MACRO {jastp} {"J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys."}
+MACRO {jce} {"J. Climate"}
+MACRO {jcam} {"J. Climate Appl. Meteor."}
+MACRO {jcm} {"J. Climate Meteor."}
+MACRO {jcy} {"J. Climatol."}
+MACRO {jgr} {"J. Geophys. Res."}
+MACRO {jga} {"J. Glaciol."}
+MACRO {jh} {"J. Hydrol."}
+MACRO {jmr} {"J. Mar. Res."}
+MACRO {jmrj} {"J. Meteor. Res. Japan"}
+MACRO {jm} {"J. Meteor."}
+MACRO {jpo} {"J. Phys. Oceanogr."}
+MACRO {jra} {"J. Rech. Atmos."}
+MACRO {jaes} {"J. Aeronaut. Sci."}
+MACRO {japca} {"J. Air Pollut. Control Assoc."}
+MACRO {jas} {"J. Atmos. Sci."}
+MACRO {jmts} {"J. Mar. Technol. Soc."}
+MACRO {jmsj} {"J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan"}
+MACRO {josj} {"J. Oceanogr. Soc. Japan"}
+MACRO {jwm} {"J. Wea. Mod."}
+MACRO {lao} {"Limnol. Oceanogr."}
+MACRO {mwl} {"Mar. Wea. Log"}
+MACRO {mau} {"Mausam"}
+MACRO {meteor} {"``Meteor'' Forschungsergeb."}
+MACRO {map} {"Meteorol. Atmos. Phys."}
+MACRO {metmag} {"Meteor. Mag."}
+MACRO {metmon} {"Meteor. Monogr."}
+MACRO {metrun} {"Meteor. Rundsch."}
+MACRO {metzeit} {"Meteor. Z."}
+MACRO {metgid} {"Meteor. Gidrol."}
+MACRO {mwr} {"Mon. Weather Rev."}
+MACRO {nwd} {"Natl. Weather Dig."}
+MACRO {nzjmfr} {"New Zeal. J. Mar. Freshwater Res."}
+MACRO {npg} {"Nonlin. Proc. Geophys."}
+MACRO {om} {"Oceanogr. Meteorol."}
+MACRO {ocac} {"Oceanol. Acta"}
+MACRO {oceanus} {"Oceanus"}
+MACRO {paleoc} {"Paleoceanography"}
+MACRO {pce} {"Phys. Chem. Earth"}
+MACRO {pmg} {"Pap. Meteor. Geophys."}
+MACRO {ppom} {"Pap. Phys. Oceanogr. Meteor."}
+MACRO {physzeit} {"Phys. Z."}
+MACRO {pps} {"Planet. Space Sci."}
+MACRO {pss} {"Planet. Space Sci."}
+MACRO {pag} {"Pure Appl. Geophys."}
+MACRO {qjrms} {"Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc."}
+MACRO {quatres} {"Quat. Res."}
+MACRO {rsci} {"Radio Sci."}
+MACRO {rse} {"Remote Sens. Environ."}
+MACRO {rgeo} {"Rev. Geophys."}
+MACRO {rgsp} {"Rev. Geophys. Space Phys."}
+MACRO {rdgeo} {"Rev. Geofis."}
+MACRO {revmeta} {"Rev. Meteorol."}
+MACRO {sgp}{"Surveys in Geophys."}
+MACRO {sp} {"Solar Phys."}
+MACRO {ssr} {"Space Sci. Rev."}
+MACRO {tellus} {"Tellus"}
+MACRO {tac} {"Theor. Appl. Climatol."}
+MACRO {tagu} {"Trans. Am. Geophys. Union (EOS)"}
+MACRO {wrr} {"Water Resour. Res."}
+MACRO {weather} {"Weather"}
+MACRO {wafc} {"Weather Forecast."}
+MACRO {ww} {"Weatherwise"}
+MACRO {wmob} {"WMO Bull."}
+MACRO {zeitmet} {"Z. Meteorol."}
+ % End module: geojour.mbs
+ %-------------------------------------------------------------------
+ % Begin module:
+ % \ProvidesFile{photjour.mbs}[1999/02/24 2.0b (PWD)]
+
+MACRO {appopt} {"Appl. Opt."}
+MACRO {bell} {"Bell Syst. Tech. J."}
+MACRO {ell} {"Electron. Lett."}
+MACRO {jasp} {"J. Appl. Spectr."}
+MACRO {jqe} {"IEEE J. Quantum Electron."}
+MACRO {jlwt} {"J. Lightwave Technol."}
+MACRO {jmo} {"J. Mod. Opt."}
+MACRO {josa} {"J. Opt. Soc. America"}
+MACRO {josaa} {"J. Opt. Soc. Amer.~A"}
+MACRO {josab} {"J. Opt. Soc. Amer.~B"}
+MACRO {jdp} {"J. Phys. (Paris)"}
+MACRO {oc} {"Opt. Commun."}
+MACRO {ol} {"Opt. Lett."}
+MACRO {phtl} {"IEEE Photon. Technol. Lett."}
+MACRO {pspie} {"Proc. Soc. Photo-Opt. Instrum. Eng."}
+MACRO {sse} {"Solid-State Electron."}
+MACRO {sjot} {"Sov. J. Opt. Technol."}
+MACRO {sjqe} {"Sov. J. Quantum Electron."}
+MACRO {sleb} {"Sov. Phys.--Leb. Inst. Rep."}
+MACRO {stph} {"Sov. Phys.--Techn. Phys."}
+MACRO {stphl} {"Sov. Techn. Phys. Lett."}
+MACRO {vr} {"Vision Res."}
+MACRO {zph} {"Z. f. Physik"}
+MACRO {zphb} {"Z. f. Physik~B"}
+MACRO {zphd} {"Z. f. Physik~D"}
+
+MACRO {CLEO} {"CLEO"}
+MACRO {ASSL} {"Adv. Sol.-State Lasers"}
+MACRO {OSA} {"OSA"}
+ % End module: photjour.mbs
+%% Copyright 1994-2008 Patrick W Daly
+MACRO {acmcs} {"ACM Comput. Surv."}
+
+MACRO {acta} {"Acta Inf."}
+
+MACRO {cacm} {"Commun. ACM"}
+
+MACRO {ibmjrd} {"IBM J. Res. Dev."}
+
+MACRO {ibmsj} {"IBM Syst.~J."}
+
+MACRO {ieeese} {"IEEE Trans. Software Eng."}
+
+MACRO {ieeetc} {"IEEE Trans. Comput."}
+
+MACRO {ieeetcad}
+ {"IEEE Trans. Comput. Aid. Des."}
+
+MACRO {ipl} {"Inf. Process. Lett."}
+
+MACRO {jacm} {"J.~ACM"}
+
+MACRO {jcss} {"J.~Comput. Syst. Sci."}
+
+MACRO {scp} {"Sci. Comput. Program."}
+
+MACRO {sicomp} {"SIAM J. Comput."}
+
+MACRO {tocs} {"ACM Trans. Comput. Syst."}
+
+MACRO {tods} {"ACM Trans. Database Syst."}
+
+MACRO {tog} {"ACM Trans. Graphic."}
+
+MACRO {toms} {"ACM Trans. Math. Software"}
+
+MACRO {toois} {"ACM Trans. Office Inf. Syst."}
+
+MACRO {toplas} {"ACM Trans. Progr. Lang. Syst."}
+
+MACRO {tcs} {"Theor. Comput. Sci."}
+
+FUNCTION {bibinfo.check}
+{ swap$
+ duplicate$ missing$
+ {
+ pop$ pop$
+ ""
+ }
+ { duplicate$ empty$
+ {
+ swap$ pop$
+ }
+ { swap$
+ pop$
+ }
+ if$
+ }
+ if$
+}
+FUNCTION {bibinfo.warn}
+{ swap$
+ duplicate$ missing$
+ {
+ swap$ "missing " swap$ * " in " * cite$ * warning$ pop$
+ ""
+ }
+ { duplicate$ empty$
+ {
+ swap$ "empty " swap$ * " in " * cite$ * warning$
+ }
+ { swap$
+ pop$
+ }
+ if$
+ }
+ if$
+}
+INTEGERS { nameptr namesleft numnames }
+
+
+STRINGS { bibinfo}
+
+FUNCTION {format.names}
+{ 'bibinfo :=
+ duplicate$ empty$ 'skip$ {
+ 's :=
+ "" 't :=
+ #1 'nameptr :=
+ s num.names$ 'numnames :=
+ numnames 'namesleft :=
+ { namesleft #0 > }
+ { s nameptr
+ duplicate$ #1 >
+ { "{f.~}{vv~}{ll}{, jj}" }
+ { "{vv~}{ll}{, f.}{, jj}" }
+ if$
+ format.name$
+ bibinfo bibinfo.check
+ 't :=
+ nameptr #1 >
+ {
+ namesleft #1 >
+ { ", " * t * }
+ {
+ s nameptr "{ll}" format.name$ duplicate$ "others" =
+ { 't := }
+ { pop$ }
+ if$
+ "," *
+ t "others" =
+ {
+ " " * bbl.etal *
+ }
+ {
+ bbl.and
+ space.word * t *
+ }
+ if$
+ }
+ if$
+ }
+ 't
+ if$
+ nameptr #1 + 'nameptr :=
+ namesleft #1 - 'namesleft :=
+ }
+ while$
+ } if$
+}
+FUNCTION {format.names.ed}
+{
+ 'bibinfo :=
+ duplicate$ empty$ 'skip$ {
+ 's :=
+ "" 't :=
+ #1 'nameptr :=
+ s num.names$ 'numnames :=
+ numnames 'namesleft :=
+ { namesleft #0 > }
+ { s nameptr
+ "{f.~}{vv~}{ll}{, jj}"
+ format.name$
+ bibinfo bibinfo.check
+ 't :=
+ nameptr #1 >
+ {
+ namesleft #1 >
+ { ", " * t * }
+ {
+ s nameptr "{ll}" format.name$ duplicate$ "others" =
+ { 't := }
+ { pop$ }
+ if$
+ numnames #2 >
+ { "," * }
+ 'skip$
+ if$
+ t "others" =
+ {
+
+ " " * bbl.etal *
+ }
+ {
+ bbl.and
+ space.word * t *
+ }
+ if$
+ }
+ if$
+ }
+ 't
+ if$
+ nameptr #1 + 'nameptr :=
+ namesleft #1 - 'namesleft :=
+ }
+ while$
+ } if$
+}
+FUNCTION {format.key}
+{ empty$
+ { key field.or.null }
+ { "" }
+ if$
+}
+
+FUNCTION {format.authors}
+{ author "author" format.names
+}
+FUNCTION {get.bbl.editor}
+{ editor num.names$ #1 > 'bbl.editors 'bbl.editor if$ }
+
+FUNCTION {format.editors}
+{ editor "editor" format.names duplicate$ empty$ 'skip$
+ {
+ " " *
+ get.bbl.editor
+ capitalize
+ "(" swap$ * ")" *
+ *
+ }
+ if$
+}
+FUNCTION {format.book.pages}
+{ pages "pages" bibinfo.check
+ duplicate$ empty$ 'skip$
+ { " " * bbl.pages * }
+ if$
+}
+FUNCTION {format.doi}
+{ doi empty$
+ { "" }
+ {
+ "\doi{" doi * "}" *
+ }
+ if$
+}
+FUNCTION {format.note}
+{
+ note empty$
+ { "" }
+ { note #1 #1 substring$
+ duplicate$ "{" =
+ 'skip$
+ { output.state mid.sentence =
+ { "l" }
+ { "u" }
+ if$
+ change.case$
+ }
+ if$
+ note #2 global.max$ substring$ * "note" bibinfo.check
+ }
+ if$
+}
+
+FUNCTION {format.title}
+{ title
+ duplicate$ empty$ 'skip$
+ { "t" change.case$ }
+ if$
+ "title" bibinfo.check
+}
+FUNCTION {format.full.names}
+{'s :=
+ "" 't :=
+ #1 'nameptr :=
+ s num.names$ 'numnames :=
+ numnames 'namesleft :=
+ { namesleft #0 > }
+ { s nameptr
+ "{vv~}{ll}" format.name$
+ 't :=
+ nameptr #1 >
+ {
+ namesleft #1 >
+ { ", " * t * }
+ {
+ s nameptr "{ll}" format.name$ duplicate$ "others" =
+ { 't := }
+ { pop$ }
+ if$
+ t "others" =
+ {
+ " " * bbl.etal *
+ cite.name.font
+ }
+ {
+ numnames #2 >
+ { "," * }
+ 'skip$
+ if$
+ bbl.and
+ space.word * t *
+ }
+ if$
+ }
+ if$
+ }
+ 't
+ if$
+ nameptr #1 + 'nameptr :=
+ namesleft #1 - 'namesleft :=
+ }
+ while$
+ t "others" =
+ 'skip$
+ { cite.name.font }
+ if$
+}
+
+FUNCTION {author.editor.key.full}
+{ author empty$
+ { editor empty$
+ { key empty$
+ { cite$ #1 #3 substring$ }
+ 'key
+ if$
+ }
+ { editor format.full.names }
+ if$
+ }
+ { author format.full.names }
+ if$
+}
+
+FUNCTION {author.key.full}
+{ author empty$
+ { key empty$
+ { cite$ #1 #3 substring$ }
+ 'key
+ if$
+ }
+ { author format.full.names }
+ if$
+}
+
+FUNCTION {editor.key.full}
+{ editor empty$
+ { key empty$
+ { cite$ #1 #3 substring$ }
+ 'key
+ if$
+ }
+ { editor format.full.names }
+ if$
+}
+
+FUNCTION {make.full.names}
+{ type$ "book" =
+ type$ "inbook" =
+ or
+ 'author.editor.key.full
+ { type$ "proceedings" =
+ 'editor.key.full
+ 'author.key.full
+ if$
+ }
+ if$
+}
+
+FUNCTION {output.bibitem}
+{ newline$
+ "\bibitem[{" write$
+ label write$
+ ")" make.full.names duplicate$ short.list =
+ { pop$ }
+ { * }
+ if$
+ "}]{" * write$
+ cite$ write$
+ "}" write$
+ newline$
+ ""
+ before.all 'output.state :=
+}
+
+FUNCTION {if.digit}
+{ duplicate$ "0" =
+ swap$ duplicate$ "1" =
+ swap$ duplicate$ "2" =
+ swap$ duplicate$ "3" =
+ swap$ duplicate$ "4" =
+ swap$ duplicate$ "5" =
+ swap$ duplicate$ "6" =
+ swap$ duplicate$ "7" =
+ swap$ duplicate$ "8" =
+ swap$ "9" = or or or or or or or or or
+}
+FUNCTION {n.separate}
+{ 't :=
+ ""
+ #0 'numnames :=
+ { t empty$ not }
+ { t #-1 #1 substring$ if.digit
+ { numnames #1 + 'numnames := }
+ { #0 'numnames := }
+ if$
+ t #-1 #1 substring$ swap$ *
+ t #-2 global.max$ substring$ 't :=
+ numnames #5 =
+ { duplicate$ #1 #2 substring$ swap$
+ #3 global.max$ substring$
+ "," swap$ * *
+ }
+ 'skip$
+ if$
+ }
+ while$
+}
+FUNCTION {n.dashify}
+{
+ n.separate
+ 't :=
+ ""
+ { t empty$ not }
+ { t #1 #1 substring$ "-" =
+ { t #1 #2 substring$ "--" = not
+ { "--" *
+ t #2 global.max$ substring$ 't :=
+ }
+ { { t #1 #1 substring$ "-" = }
+ { "-" *
+ t #2 global.max$ substring$ 't :=
+ }
+ while$
+ }
+ if$
+ }
+ { t #1 #1 substring$ *
+ t #2 global.max$ substring$ 't :=
+ }
+ if$
+ }
+ while$
+}
+
+FUNCTION {word.in}
+{ bbl.in
+ " " * }
+
+FUNCTION {format.date}
+{ year "year" bibinfo.check duplicate$ empty$
+ {
+ }
+ 'skip$
+ if$
+ extra.label *
+ before.all 'output.state :=
+ " (" swap$ * ")" *
+}
+FUNCTION {format.btitle}
+{ title "title" bibinfo.check
+ duplicate$ empty$ 'skip$
+ {
+ emphasize
+ }
+ if$
+}
+FUNCTION {either.or.check}
+{ empty$
+ 'pop$
+ { "can't use both " swap$ * " fields in " * cite$ * warning$ }
+ if$
+}
+FUNCTION {format.bvolume}
+{ volume empty$
+ { "" }
+ { bbl.volume volume tie.or.space.prefix
+ "volume" bibinfo.check * *
+ series "series" bibinfo.check
+ duplicate$ empty$ 'pop$
+ { emphasize ", " * swap$ * }
+ if$
+ "volume and number" number either.or.check
+ }
+ if$
+}
+FUNCTION {format.number.series}
+{ volume empty$
+ { number empty$
+ { series field.or.null }
+ { series empty$
+ { number "number" bibinfo.check }
+ { output.state mid.sentence =
+ { bbl.number }
+ { bbl.number capitalize }
+ if$
+ number tie.or.space.prefix "number" bibinfo.check * *
+ bbl.in space.word *
+ series "series" bibinfo.check *
+ }
+ if$
+ }
+ if$
+ }
+ { "" }
+ if$
+}
+
+FUNCTION {format.edition}
+{ edition duplicate$ empty$ 'skip$
+ {
+ output.state mid.sentence =
+ { "l" }
+ { "t" }
+ if$ change.case$
+ "edition" bibinfo.check
+ " " * bbl.edition *
+ }
+ if$
+}
+INTEGERS { multiresult }
+FUNCTION {multi.page.check}
+{ 't :=
+ #0 'multiresult :=
+ { multiresult not
+ t empty$ not
+ and
+ }
+ { t #1 #1 substring$
+ duplicate$ "-" =
+ swap$ duplicate$ "," =
+ swap$ "+" =
+ or or
+ { #1 'multiresult := }
+ { t #2 global.max$ substring$ 't := }
+ if$
+ }
+ while$
+ multiresult
+}
+FUNCTION {format.pages}
+{ pages duplicate$ empty$ 'skip$
+ { duplicate$ multi.page.check
+ {
+ bbl.pages swap$
+ n.dashify
+ }
+ {
+ bbl.page swap$
+ }
+ if$
+ tie.or.space.prefix
+ "pages" bibinfo.check
+ * *
+ }
+ if$
+}
+FUNCTION {format.journal.pages}
+{ pages duplicate$ empty$ 'pop$
+ { swap$ duplicate$ empty$
+ { pop$ pop$ format.pages }
+ {
+ ", " *
+ swap$
+ n.dashify
+ "pages" bibinfo.check
+ *
+ }
+ if$
+ }
+ if$
+}
+FUNCTION {format.journal.eid}
+{ eid "eid" bibinfo.check
+ duplicate$ empty$ 'pop$
+ { swap$ duplicate$ empty$ 'skip$
+ {
+ ", " *
+ }
+ if$
+ swap$ *
+ }
+ if$
+}
+FUNCTION {format.vol.num.pages}
+{ volume field.or.null
+ duplicate$ empty$ 'skip$
+ {
+ "volume" bibinfo.check
+ }
+ if$
+ emphasize
+ number "number" bibinfo.check duplicate$ empty$ 'skip$
+ {
+ swap$ duplicate$ empty$
+ { "there's a number but no volume in " cite$ * warning$ }
+ 'skip$
+ if$
+ swap$
+ "(" swap$ * ")" *
+ }
+ if$ *
+ eid empty$
+ { format.journal.pages }
+ { format.journal.eid }
+ if$
+}
+
+FUNCTION {format.chapter.pages}
+{ chapter empty$
+ 'format.pages
+ { type empty$
+ { bbl.chapter }
+ { type "l" change.case$
+ "type" bibinfo.check
+ }
+ if$
+ chapter tie.or.space.prefix
+ "chapter" bibinfo.check
+ * *
+ pages empty$
+ 'skip$
+ { ", " * format.pages * }
+ if$
+ }
+ if$
+}
+
+FUNCTION {format.booktitle}
+{
+ booktitle "booktitle" bibinfo.check
+ emphasize
+}
+FUNCTION {format.in.ed.booktitle}
+{ format.booktitle duplicate$ empty$ 'skip$
+ {
+ format.bvolume duplicate$ empty$ 'pop$
+ { ", " swap$ * * }
+ if$
+ editor "editor" format.names.ed duplicate$ empty$ 'pop$
+ {
+ bbl.edby
+ " " * swap$ *
+ swap$
+ "," *
+ " " * swap$
+ * }
+ if$
+ word.in swap$ *
+ }
+ if$
+}
+FUNCTION {format.thesis.type}
+{ type duplicate$ empty$
+ 'pop$
+ { swap$ pop$
+ "t" change.case$ "type" bibinfo.check
+ }
+ if$
+}
+FUNCTION {format.tr.number}
+{ number "number" bibinfo.check
+ type duplicate$ empty$
+ { pop$ bbl.techrep }
+ 'skip$
+ if$
+ "type" bibinfo.check
+ swap$ duplicate$ empty$
+ { pop$ "t" change.case$ }
+ { tie.or.space.prefix * * }
+ if$
+}
+FUNCTION {format.article.crossref}
+{
+ word.in
+ " \cite{" * crossref * "}" *
+}
+FUNCTION {format.book.crossref}
+{ volume duplicate$ empty$
+ { "empty volume in " cite$ * "'s crossref of " * crossref * warning$
+ pop$ word.in
+ }
+ { bbl.volume
+ swap$ tie.or.space.prefix "volume" bibinfo.check * * bbl.of space.word *
+ }
+ if$
+ " \cite{" * crossref * "}" *
+}
+FUNCTION {format.incoll.inproc.crossref}
+{
+ word.in
+ " \cite{" * crossref * "}" *
+}
+FUNCTION {format.org.or.pub}
+{ 't :=
+ ""
+ address empty$ t empty$ and
+ 'skip$
+ {
+ t empty$
+ { address "address" bibinfo.check *
+ }
+ { t *
+ address empty$
+ 'skip$
+ { ", " * address "address" bibinfo.check * }
+ if$
+ }
+ if$
+ }
+ if$
+}
+FUNCTION {format.publisher.address}
+{ publisher "publisher" bibinfo.warn format.org.or.pub
+}
+
+FUNCTION {format.organization.address}
+{ organization "organization" bibinfo.check format.org.or.pub
+}
+
+FUNCTION {article}
+{ output.bibitem
+ format.authors "author" output.check
+ author format.key output
+ format.date "year" output.check
+ date.block
+ format.title "title" output.check
+ crossref missing$
+ {
+ journal
+ "journal" bibinfo.check
+ emphasize
+ "journal" output.check
+ format.vol.num.pages output
+ format.doi output
+ }
+ { format.article.crossref output.nonnull
+ format.pages output
+ }
+ if$
+ format.note output
+ fin.entry
+}
+FUNCTION {book}
+{ output.bibitem
+ author empty$
+ { format.editors "author and editor" output.check
+ editor format.key output
+ }
+ { format.authors output.nonnull
+ crossref missing$
+ { "author and editor" editor either.or.check }
+ 'skip$
+ if$
+ }
+ if$
+ format.date "year" output.check
+ date.block
+ format.btitle "title" output.check
+ crossref missing$
+ { format.bvolume output
+ format.number.series output
+ format.edition output
+ format.book.pages output
+ format.publisher.address output
+ }
+ {
+ format.book.crossref output.nonnull
+ }
+ if$
+ format.doi output
+ format.note output
+ fin.entry
+}
+FUNCTION {booklet}
+{ output.bibitem
+ format.authors output
+ author format.key output
+ format.date "year" output.check
+ date.block
+ format.title "title" output.check
+ howpublished "howpublished" bibinfo.check output
+ address "address" bibinfo.check output
+ format.book.pages output
+ format.doi output
+ format.note output
+ fin.entry
+}
+
+FUNCTION {inbook}
+{ output.bibitem
+ author empty$
+ { format.editors "author and editor" output.check
+ editor format.key output
+ }
+ { format.authors output.nonnull
+ crossref missing$
+ { "author and editor" editor either.or.check }
+ 'skip$
+ if$
+ }
+ if$
+ format.date "year" output.check
+ date.block
+ format.btitle "title" output.check
+ crossref missing$
+ {
+ format.bvolume output
+ format.chapter.pages "chapter and pages" output.check
+ format.number.series output
+ format.edition output
+ format.publisher.address output
+ }
+ {
+ format.chapter.pages "chapter and pages" output.check
+ format.book.crossref output.nonnull
+ }
+ if$
+ format.doi output
+ format.note output
+ fin.entry
+}
+
+FUNCTION {incollection}
+{ output.bibitem
+ format.authors "author" output.check
+ author format.key output
+ format.date "year" output.check
+ date.block
+ format.title "title" output.check
+ crossref missing$
+ { format.in.ed.booktitle "booktitle" output.check
+ format.number.series output
+ format.edition output
+ format.chapter.pages output
+ format.publisher.address output
+ }
+ { format.incoll.inproc.crossref output.nonnull
+ format.chapter.pages output
+ }
+ if$
+ format.doi output
+ format.note output
+ fin.entry
+}
+FUNCTION {inproceedings}
+{ output.bibitem
+ format.authors "author" output.check
+ author format.key output
+ format.date "year" output.check
+ date.block
+ format.title "title" output.check
+ crossref missing$
+ { format.in.ed.booktitle "booktitle" output.check
+ format.number.series output
+ format.pages output
+ publisher empty$
+ { format.organization.address output }
+ { organization "organization" bibinfo.check output
+ format.publisher.address output
+ }
+ if$
+ }
+ { format.incoll.inproc.crossref output.nonnull
+ format.pages output
+ }
+ if$
+ format.doi output
+ format.note output
+ fin.entry
+}
+FUNCTION {conference} { inproceedings }
+FUNCTION {manual}
+{ output.bibitem
+ format.authors output
+ author format.key output
+ format.date "year" output.check
+ date.block
+ format.btitle "title" output.check
+ organization "organization" bibinfo.check output
+ address "address" bibinfo.check output
+ format.edition output
+ format.doi output
+ format.note output
+ fin.entry
+}
+
+FUNCTION {mastersthesis}
+{ output.bibitem
+ format.authors "author" output.check
+ author format.key output
+ format.date "year" output.check
+ date.block
+ format.title
+ "title" output.check
+ bbl.mthesis format.thesis.type output.nonnull
+ school "school" bibinfo.warn output
+ address "address" bibinfo.check output
+ format.doi output
+ format.note output
+ fin.entry
+}
+
+FUNCTION {misc}
+{ output.bibitem
+ format.authors output
+ author format.key output
+ format.date "year" output.check
+ date.block
+ format.title output
+ howpublished "howpublished" bibinfo.check output
+ format.doi output
+ format.note output
+ fin.entry
+}
+FUNCTION {phdthesis}
+{ output.bibitem
+ format.authors "author" output.check
+ author format.key output
+ format.date "year" output.check
+ date.block
+ format.title
+ "title" output.check
+ bbl.phdthesis format.thesis.type output.nonnull
+ school "school" bibinfo.warn output
+ address "address" bibinfo.check output
+ format.doi output
+ format.note output
+ fin.entry
+}
+
+FUNCTION {proceedings}
+{ output.bibitem
+ format.editors output
+ editor format.key output
+ format.date "year" output.check
+ date.block
+ format.btitle "title" output.check
+ format.bvolume output
+ format.number.series output
+ publisher empty$
+ { format.organization.address output }
+ { organization "organization" bibinfo.check output
+ format.publisher.address output
+ }
+ if$
+ format.doi output
+ format.note output
+ fin.entry
+}
+
+FUNCTION {techreport}
+{ output.bibitem
+ format.authors "author" output.check
+ author format.key output
+ format.date "year" output.check
+ date.block
+ format.title
+ "title" output.check
+ format.tr.number emphasize output.nonnull
+ institution "institution" bibinfo.warn output
+ address "address" bibinfo.check output
+ format.doi output
+ format.note output
+ fin.entry
+}
+
+FUNCTION {unpublished}
+{ output.bibitem
+ format.authors "author" output.check
+ author format.key output
+ format.date "year" output.check
+ date.block
+ format.title "title" output.check
+ format.doi output
+ format.note "note" output.check
+ fin.entry
+}
+
+FUNCTION {default.type} { misc }
+READ
+FUNCTION {sortify}
+{ purify$
+ "l" change.case$
+}
+INTEGERS { len }
+FUNCTION {chop.word}
+{ 's :=
+ 'len :=
+ s #1 len substring$ =
+ { s len #1 + global.max$ substring$ }
+ 's
+ if$
+}
+FUNCTION {format.lab.names}
+{ 's :=
+ "" 't :=
+ s #1 "{vv~}{ll}" format.name$
+ s num.names$ duplicate$
+ #2 >
+ { pop$
+ " " * bbl.etal *
+ cite.name.font
+ "others" 't :=
+ }
+ { #2 <
+ 'skip$
+ { s #2 "{ff }{vv }{ll}{ jj}" format.name$ "others" =
+ {
+ " " * bbl.etal *
+ cite.name.font
+ "others" 't :=
+ }
+ { bbl.and space.word * s #2 "{vv~}{ll}" format.name$
+ * }
+ if$
+ }
+ if$
+ }
+ if$
+ t "others" =
+ 'skip$
+ { cite.name.font }
+ if$
+}
+
+FUNCTION {author.key.label}
+{ author empty$
+ { key empty$
+ { cite$ #1 #3 substring$ }
+ 'key
+ if$
+ }
+ { author format.lab.names }
+ if$
+}
+
+FUNCTION {author.editor.key.label}
+{ author empty$
+ { editor empty$
+ { key empty$
+ { cite$ #1 #3 substring$ }
+ 'key
+ if$
+ }
+ { editor format.lab.names }
+ if$
+ }
+ { author format.lab.names }
+ if$
+}
+
+FUNCTION {editor.key.label}
+{ editor empty$
+ { key empty$
+ { cite$ #1 #3 substring$ }
+ 'key
+ if$
+ }
+ { editor format.lab.names }
+ if$
+}
+
+FUNCTION {calc.short.authors}
+{ type$ "book" =
+ type$ "inbook" =
+ or
+ 'author.editor.key.label
+ { type$ "proceedings" =
+ 'editor.key.label
+ 'author.key.label
+ if$
+ }
+ if$
+ 'short.list :=
+}
+
+FUNCTION {calc.label}
+{ calc.short.authors
+ short.list
+ "("
+ *
+ year duplicate$ empty$
+ short.list key field.or.null = or
+ { pop$ "" }
+ 'skip$
+ if$
+ *
+ 'label :=
+}
+
+FUNCTION {sort.format.names}
+{ 's :=
+ #1 'nameptr :=
+ ""
+ s num.names$ 'numnames :=
+ numnames 'namesleft :=
+ { namesleft #0 > }
+ { s nameptr
+ "{vv{ } }{ll{ }}{ f{ }}{ jj{ }}"
+ format.name$ 't :=
+ nameptr #1 >
+ {
+ " " *
+ namesleft #1 = t "others" = and
+ { "zzzzz" 't := }
+ 'skip$
+ if$
+ numnames #2 > nameptr #2 = and
+ { "zz" * year field.or.null * " " *
+ #1 'namesleft :=
+ }
+ { t sortify * }
+ if$
+ }
+ { t sortify * }
+ if$
+ nameptr #1 + 'nameptr :=
+ namesleft #1 - 'namesleft :=
+ }
+ while$
+}
+
+FUNCTION {sort.format.title}
+{ 't :=
+ "A " #2
+ "An " #3
+ "The " #4 t chop.word
+ chop.word
+ chop.word
+ sortify
+ #1 global.max$ substring$
+}
+FUNCTION {author.sort}
+{ author empty$
+ { key empty$
+ { "to sort, need author or key in " cite$ * warning$
+ ""
+ }
+ { key sortify }
+ if$
+ }
+ { author sort.format.names }
+ if$
+}
+FUNCTION {author.editor.sort}
+{ author empty$
+ { editor empty$
+ { key empty$
+ { "to sort, need author, editor, or key in " cite$ * warning$
+ ""
+ }
+ { key sortify }
+ if$
+ }
+ { editor sort.format.names }
+ if$
+ }
+ { author sort.format.names }
+ if$
+}
+FUNCTION {editor.sort}
+{ editor empty$
+ { key empty$
+ { "to sort, need editor or key in " cite$ * warning$
+ ""
+ }
+ { key sortify }
+ if$
+ }
+ { editor sort.format.names }
+ if$
+}
+FUNCTION {presort}
+{ calc.label
+ label sortify
+ " "
+ *
+ type$ "book" =
+ type$ "inbook" =
+ or
+ 'author.editor.sort
+ { type$ "proceedings" =
+ 'editor.sort
+ 'author.sort
+ if$
+ }
+ if$
+ #1 entry.max$ substring$
+ 'sort.label :=
+ sort.label
+ *
+ #1 entry.max$ substring$
+ 'sort.key$ :=
+}
+
+ITERATE {presort}
+SORT
+STRINGS { last.label next.extra }
+INTEGERS { last.extra.num last.extra.num.extended last.extra.num.blank number.label }
+FUNCTION {initialize.extra.label.stuff}
+{ #0 int.to.chr$ 'last.label :=
+ "" 'next.extra :=
+ #0 'last.extra.num :=
+ "a" chr.to.int$ #1 - 'last.extra.num.blank :=
+ last.extra.num.blank 'last.extra.num.extended :=
+ #0 'number.label :=
+}
+FUNCTION {forward.pass}
+{ last.label label =
+ { last.extra.num #1 + 'last.extra.num :=
+ last.extra.num "z" chr.to.int$ >
+ { "a" chr.to.int$ 'last.extra.num :=
+ last.extra.num.extended #1 + 'last.extra.num.extended :=
+ }
+ 'skip$
+ if$
+ last.extra.num.extended last.extra.num.blank >
+ { last.extra.num.extended int.to.chr$
+ last.extra.num int.to.chr$
+ * 'extra.label := }
+ { last.extra.num int.to.chr$ 'extra.label := }
+ if$
+ }
+ { "a" chr.to.int$ 'last.extra.num :=
+ "" 'extra.label :=
+ label 'last.label :=
+ }
+ if$
+ number.label #1 + 'number.label :=
+}
+FUNCTION {reverse.pass}
+{ next.extra "b" =
+ { "a" 'extra.label := }
+ 'skip$
+ if$
+ extra.label 'next.extra :=
+ extra.label
+ duplicate$ empty$
+ 'skip$
+ { "{\natexlab{" swap$ * "}}" * }
+ if$
+ 'extra.label :=
+ label extra.label * 'label :=
+}
+EXECUTE {initialize.extra.label.stuff}
+ITERATE {forward.pass}
+REVERSE {reverse.pass}
+FUNCTION {bib.sort.order}
+{ sort.label
+ " "
+ *
+ year field.or.null sortify
+ *
+ #1 entry.max$ substring$
+ 'sort.key$ :=
+}
+ITERATE {bib.sort.order}
+SORT
+FUNCTION {begin.bib}
+{ preamble$ empty$
+ 'skip$
+ { preamble$ write$ newline$ }
+ if$
+ "\begin{thebibliography}{" number.label int.to.str$ * "}" *
+ write$ newline$
+ "\providecommand{\natexlab}[1]{#1}"
+ write$ newline$
+ "\expandafter\ifx\csname urlstyle\endcsname\relax"
+ write$ newline$
+ " \providecommand{\doi}[1]{doi:\discretionary{}{}{}#1}\else"
+ write$ newline$
+ " \providecommand{\doi}{doi:\discretionary{}{}{}\begingroup \urlstyle{rm}\Url}\fi"
+ write$ newline$
+}
+EXECUTE {begin.bib}
+EXECUTE {init.state.consts}
+ITERATE {call.type$}
+FUNCTION {end.bib}
+{ newline$
+ "\end{thebibliography}" write$ newline$
+}
+EXECUTE {end.bib}
+%% End of customized bst file
+%%
+%% End of file `agufull08.bst'.
diff --git a/inst/vignette/figures/f01bvign.pdf b/inst/vignette/figures/f01bvign.pdf
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..20f32f1e4170ce9fd88ed7e378d95e8cb61db353
GIT binary patch
literal 6374
zcmcIJc_5VQ*O5x2B1x1oT#RnUJBwLkY-20CkqL7dvoIQlS(qdVMM<($%2r%dRBB4m
zCRs|MD`ku9rIaKTE#EuRy|;Vs_x*l<-0%Hop7%UwKj%5mIq&E?lda)MLnDZ8-AHmC
z1Or7td47QqV`IRc73?nzfMP+2D`3sx3R!$8V9liqS!5Q2$7GR65P^`-q6b05SzTUU
zJZ~%IDAQYcn)8+8Z~ClLY7X3O)uC&4QL&h{=Ycp?jA6u@EE~D?Y_$01gBq<+$9H~-
z@mIH1yrhJ;4i>*0!WH=E8-3mO^<3Gb=calS@7VS9Cx*q(V5v#dW106l2^q@iW5h<}
zddAu>rS$=$T^cPD5fRv7g4m~I51D6wP-fSQbee%R?N(OSQo+4?&!Fc66r^4Q_H;(q
zNNj$>sz<lnqd)mQ-t~4+5czfL%BDT+(IeAbRDBDp#q`8|URp{)@nlnA@t1cR_v23>
zp1bBneDOQe>6eZRU54$0ZG3(rhgSqU|0O(X=j9v3ufzA8awFe;y7kDTsYvrg<l~52
zJ4c<nG6=8cbtUD_7dZvj7UehK)0(mFl<0bFQzMLfV?$J<v212@R`QgS=DH3Oe7Att
z?Cm(Ichz{6;vHM6!mgK@<DVr(HktirZ+l!grdw|wG?kt(xHr!`&aPMghT@?;=LhGt
z2OscA!&r}>cSM@cwAX3T4|L+TxE0C0y08FWrKct4irRMNCwsWH=DAfIp;ZkNx3o>L
zC8AfNiKBHD9UcvO6P@-2`U+N#_BBNG4u7rtP3yOqPS-vD7?FRD2gGNa^^#53myu7M
z<IozZQE>H;+7j;scG<#AqW+Uib;DJ?-cMJ1UCd6}4J*LU7}plB|CP!<x=<I-UEF7N
z6jA$nP0x$;tcE4L*UH9zy$1&0^WKjIzVsB<KfGv%r!8`LF?KGf{I*;hvvJ);XtNlZ
zQQX<}X~Oi@MhKjTJm$w;o`_qgVAuA<acs|#QOd#J(D@&k)m0M1h`m=yzc{Rie(}fY
z+uhL|-r!)NImL_4ck@0dsnx?Q)~XbwESttni!mZNk@ccWC+l3S-nh86>?zY#9-T~r
za<yLXyLbJ1L}(q;`r`f7?L^tTYS}4WrTeVC7TrFB7--MKG90aktWPY`Rrz$d{&v=?
z+$bZLDeoKi<bECwm>}JmdYe|JYG%1**99-1V&JB8r^M7S?B(V+mHyGT%gjHc#b3t9
zhwrrmxNF5pM6Vka)LXyg76Yb(1{H$6MN?Z_Up3q-aZ*g(*sG;{V&7dn)rbGU<;V^t
z(Q%Q>^1HjsIhGHWm$IoA&8y9d8Xy8~t^&t#oy1;li%g%KrmAPSc)8}4N817tl3|N7
z`qXLWp^}3tD?b8{`MSOGwvhCPdIb4+nT_!Tv(R%D3$EHf3S7MAumv_uxp1?+<awZ3
zO39iRNZmwNtd=Z9>sO*K;^to8F7EuoHrcz7)*6krC`ru%Z%f^_^r?*a&&rMi%aX;T
z^VT|e*tM3-d)w+S)2{7$XaDv#?c7XluHLeO?%d?S1xp7Ovr;I&?#3k5pWdsUoY&zB
zKe=7r@@=2WqUG{H>b@mKcje|Im)q);pJ|abJVP1xCO&929IRiwCh-?a%o^%epXl4{
zy>fB)E$S*us#dfgQe2_E<dSALh?|}irm?+Y_1?}z>d1?gqz|Z~K&N)Z>ex8J;{r#N
zcdm_ljQD4Bh=25G41D~0pwO!d7C4+$^B{kryBc~vu5!<Yu3s<Gd-k?^0t5>-!4N~7
zm)K)vd|khz{<(w4w#AG`3Z<S(_P$ktS<doNYxV^l_lxn5donn)m9eF&LU`&O+{9-{
zL%%FKW&aJ2D$7$iBcFVS7d6ATp5SK4;i)kh>Dp-_y`fJURzaQ*1R7?gX@40oz%Ozi
z)ZoHy=F>7P6YCPybZ>noFcl~UO199%s(|IX+7JU~o@4uxO-|?&)M^!tLYtO&Me0)f
zlMQOQL%J=S3Vkh=(%@J<{?faPGTQ5CNhWot{V<X5n@43%?=%frP!20w7`0~c$3t|+
zsh*cJl2?+~t*bI88m`YU!dLm!$QjA!T68I0MUkl;G6rRC*jU#Ubcc+T1PiOZMwL48
zgGlYkvCx<4%~wkOW0o9UUXX(C*;#6duB9b|g4p~lMZ2y7wRS|k76q}rI+7Z{Ysbe|
zuN}vXc17^V^)6}jKCL`_?u321FA62d=T54`l2Z<hEOS|U#yQUq0fTx}=8?+U85`>&
z-z<Hr@^W6?q1uNFTW||$vB(*6LBxJVvxb@?SkmgDC^bm)=$H37-EX=>BkvI^;c|*A
zQc`bF4n(U}Hf6_TrDwCys0dH(eo^xW71_ERZMDJvgz0Ek#r77h)wi_{aRM)lH#~0T
zQAHL?R)(^7$xr<NLztOrUY+&sGq=?uN+npy0tI&yRsGjT9edB1rk+xyVya9_V-=zu
zZTr37H`GkN$%8K!$z6K5zGYnI;sWA$tc7MYN8&$!aIsp-L02XGjUuJ8T{<rJUwL+{
zhREuyYjayXQ!QbK&P;O!JEFzivhX$!|DTQYlw$mJ8%y)v$6joAE7cy@cur^DeYI|p
z$`;vr&*%^}Z_P}y@0x{+(v0@YS1&uEm6hgJa?-UUIeuMiKSfe8rfAz$Gr8ooL!M4`
zKl>s7l4%a@<|njsuYE&K&7I->X-OQFq>D>zI~EQF_@0mZ#6hdl?#F^<uqMCyAlq3Z
z@2G>NnPwSKQs}7P5i&*G=ml37xqLO#WF#MlWTPltWye*wk97Y;YkL>sL9JhTH^!l8
zue-1Ma}TeH^68mpId=I!U(6hQ?5{t+{nYg2JHPPIvhu5hPMSCE=1H5w2hJ}`aZ!~x
z?v?2v+zZlsIdVMPVc_g$WzRPf*>I&-j$6GObY8$xjRQ40_vcw1XdZfTncQ_-Shplj
zdC1~wpGB%;A8peR+=mN?cgq*x13Et&#JU;SQytGV@hj^JpJ>;Hr-zxzpQ=6!kttlC
zw4NavQWw^<og)ucsP@)Y$5GCgsvm33tNozn!gy21wVSzp!LMQ8sep7R?#%Y~A>;Vi
z(8v9U`l*sF-6RdssylW`ltu-!jDV1>8Y9C1?$xW-J`-GcSCLBGCkh2xwzA)#G0=kP
zY_!q0#X7(&_O@qvj1Gys&Y}>q_ZOSk8jax#3zB>y(n8exi$l}kZ0mGd^?Vn(@u$w?
z2qzK5Y2Q+%v3t{rk5}6r+NrX7LT&y&-=^}x>_bX6F45sKA86|=E&=IKs#W8uz~9z$
z_xze#QQfc>lRUFnF>Lu%X*KSq4&r)=wTjlJ-!7l~`10DVZig>27jo9_c(8e5Kiye&
z6QfNZA~aBDByMWG;D3xdd~ghMIj38ZW`XQm7_NyOvpsa!%t<EIy=wDOjPRvi1$f7Q
z6&DEyi8H6C-$nIYfOEE2P5G%CaVRdQyFW&K9XXx4V*_QOR!6k`D2KGA`LoAS05EI~
z?{68dS&hX&oj8*gmJMT2GDpIh>|*Y>;S0(PtvY0@RJ8P-Z+X(Zc@^?zxBw>?_Sr4y
z&5;WAXSB5x;*3V;*MyNriMc9dyKZ}?!U*MjU(aW<PWDChbY@ER^#OG3PD^=P5;ZWX
zV;(krlHt%a6&tIiE%#*QJ!(6Tx+h-!KxiwYDfCQxXwMGY2%xDVhj+)>ER#SCe;>HX
zAp7~jN+RO5Iq&&U&y8c4%g}S9jgy7El!mqSEV&>+{Wz4wfZJV*@E9*?ZX+C|9)6GV
zJ$=NJeuQ=VR<FjLmP}<Whx-pdAL~TPtkk~Q71E2a%IRX2U8<QU-b~QXG!Ny*C*tOZ
zEjXKX=U6l204$8CCVA#x8!1DJjEav)SZC0tnb3MLwAByPu=R91N#(3*Wx!%(Z{)ka
zQ8;#oQuecet9P6Qajv_=izjkokL*u{$&r%NTHN86OJDcIq|LmCuf1?rQjk!y$UH79
z_2ZdkySL&DE+;tUD8%WgU23Z=c)Q88^z^ab=@Is0+WV45jVhT90k2<`R6k5{IJBXu
zVc@5m3D4pH?2RMHb?yn}Ckhj;!+M(d#bEdK*kh5&Kv#iI&&>$lk{0`cTHoKKXX?JH
zB+jb^Z@{07EIFu(yeYAWD@&b<<Q_e&=0z&CO%19sdAs4+dDTQzH118%_2Z~l;bER@
z7SL^095a&H**18-(D7bQ({Y!lSQ&Ep-36Z&g7o(sJ@ruD{YGPCiSh2Pe9uO{GmK~Z
z;b#R?tw`G!A4G!7Gan;%3a+(xJ)OejhOZ3!SaoINl2zG$yC<&ey|r@eV>OIi@9(tz
z<?1wYDBp8r?JkbWcGvWUyVgu9mK0jsMw-!MUXH}Pb6u_Zf?=`kw-YNWVrZ4a$^p8`
z{H>aA9W$=z?0&5nSMBXG`f6gLCNc5wd!0Ai;DmSTs<}5-oesXTNTuxTcHKss6??wo
z=3D5TT&L}Mka7KZo{eu~uybWmfl8qAWdHP1mCf1OS4^&d3RKQ&;ua?JE{z4Q_B8t5
zi4I9S(Jr$7a}#cEbXSYM#Ov8eR8;7W@>KSdo$y67^u<R{uFTzb@gqV1!rPT;Nj;b+
z5+&!t0o#Pfbt96uV<*?B<oVWi)tc;eH|`7j32!}FvhbS1@fEd;I@G=xKI7dv>CG^8
z_X$>A*O_{xbKkzmetj$~{K%!WhT>vL*S)U~1n+lgzvd}!a*X_XU}w(?E4>NVX9Ah7
z@y|h4?ln4nHJcQ6s*buGFg`nEmA$O|4f6S~{e6MQqJKIdj~caS9Jx|iV$+tPr(51}
zZd4^Ka-e)Y?}HJ|^qr&Dl~($R^<k$zej?|H?ZS@>yoIp}GMU-ed?Us`eQy6Xaofj$
z-`?)+yg2Vvgrs3W7Iz}=iDu!~`A;jyKeK|Fa}yo7l1_or*-!e5#-Q+!IhfHO6C!1M
z2n%qg`?CNC7L!A_;EADL2yh#T!XcqZG{%Sq0k`?AU?CJOogyKCD@(u=@fj=uIA1#R
zc?>s}&<g-3P$)oQiG?7#l~`!wCIn|pC{oG^B(dg!<VfV~3pjEDmf$<cQ2>>Ws;&?a
zG^dzU#JABE<OXU6omEW$1vYb-0;m^6s<<nJ1_e2Yq%8kLD&_u-bdJ)JE~ImL{@+>5
zY45-i(wX26Xy9LD<9=lDhZzvS$=LylB$4KnoV99Blq(J*rE~qmgjqAc?-C#c=`P@k
zhv0uilfvh)Ea(E3)I)$RiyOugav1bk3ue6r0o+7>LTQYo?f`Z8?kOp||CJtY!Q(Rj
z3nsHZnBy{=2;aT)hghnE{r9g3NFywkM4HPkV^eVmow1E2g!-}kIl(5d(QCJ0P!7`s
z=7DiQID}ZT0ywr2e3n~;BZU#MjX_|-Oi2)9Q#zQGEV!5+0%y;Dju1du0)~mUrK`QQ
zwiH236bFR_fkA?bgSf#0qSypBOF{(KQZN96&Y}pnnZT$H&QKwb$KA#eLQ#eULnIuD
zHh{AE^dMF^kG~CyG{nL{mV73g=nCfNH-_Mw2`oS;3?TwQczC#BINFfM_Xm&!0s%mv
z02B%iV!#F4gN1Z4JXr7(C~sB~4)u4kV1ePRPKFF#5Wt}VNJ9khT@V>GhtCNSa(KZ|
zsbIPvPb4&fVQ@?)&JW3i(~a;rI1<TXz!BgBXZzt92s#Ui#A68GC58M+!yiO}8=x#S
z=mKy>1kWB*#9;AFU^dS7P@4drK=@5G6mN(_z<@c+{{@A>i2SqdU>N6&HwJNt4m>7@
zy`2o6d=d(QM8OegI1)uc;)zBmA_lzyfg~aj#=u`N!H|Qbmf%My@T1g!LHZ}mKaukI
z6fhA;WDXq~hA<@HzKNN|o!c@7q~Z9JH~vNc&_f&?{%;Qj1xXWEibo{#7@{Ds`q`2H
z%e43xBgtg^u4agc&z;SDCIet`SyGJzU@(!Oo=gUj&Ep5r!Mvr1gmA%vBu!@kOgb3J
z7~B+cgj^PB_FS2Bh2Iujj`W-mx%6Ov6POszWU=WYt`J57q{Y_3(*lrY1mI5bVSts6
z6D<1165N0X(St?b5?26#856Lb$>%w{IRR{rzlhHg0N(*V(s~14R6f>RUbtldoi8*5
zFRX82<#I^h7PI;Qf9MFV7}C_@@xQ6*#tQweFDZf^<i`(S{e{CUhLpqabpMbzvmmgh
zfH?&GUa?3J=)d&*dyM`l)8OT00t=TGVQ}?hiy*xT=Wc=TMMeLgYRY=>=9W4WOa|#m
z)h83BK}DdEC?wtpHG9Hg2m}m711rIQz@SKTNdNykJHBho<Lm!k8bFx2NEiTu<`Q82
z?>D=c&tgNs-Ukhl7Uypd6pO*2F;F&i4u-}XfnAIAfd+qvVXy?S&H53B#^L`C!=k}9
z<VQRN0{J(7Xe{z?cxZyO@A#3{2!RJXqQAmWf5Sr)FkpN1BOaQ7{~OE*iTRUUA)n6S
zviRWt2vER{69Kk!Xei*y<AHsbw3mSbcEM~O^jjMR*pZ=L#waTU!rB6fMp_cg5!QHX
sYjZ0y-Uw-qG_p3wS>O<)|BOMCwsZm^c)DkUfgxa#5M5m>Cu_+605Z1<!T<mO
literal 0
HcmV?d00001
diff --git a/inst/vignette/figures/f01vign.pdf b/inst/vignette/figures/f01vign.pdf
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..262283f3dc2210698d6679f373967f5112046c80
GIT binary patch
literal 60595
zcmcG#WmII%vNnj*xVyVG6jivpyIbS#?$AKv4vo9JySp^*PUF_NyG_6Mo^S4%^_^KW
z^J8k|s#Os?GvvvL%G{BAQz?pyGXj~|kf?U|rst91fy|`Lr1nNuNW8oNSxY-pLnliw
zQxj4kK$et^otc9fpg;-)0mMkzfNVf^fc)PJs-$de9PFF`Nm3nBRt_L3keykVpC8H8
z&g364r2pFo2_6LeA048m#`Y$riiS?M&VMzE*xR_;+BuW50u-H0O)QOF?4ACq<L3v6
zTiUpoIswFO3|&nBdk8>EREL*~OIVzfRfJiTO_*JnQ(Tyhjg<og5))+?W@TaLViDr!
z<q-Z$h;WE=u!yiQgIGm`*oA<cVyv9P9DfNekPyEvK+4X<)I;a5;~<uQ2s3+9uD|vv
z17uC@%v~%<*}48P#_hkn<N_$$+q;kg|8YPWpz;?QQWh3~s;7e~KvUV&44|O{Bn6QI
z|N8Ij;$&)Qiv(}6X=G%AYG7bwAPtL-_+9Wv9h@X{1sI$g9%<hO#Lq9#=+sK2T5+kT
zUZnAl*#Y74hSZYD0r3{Q0()hbVBj!dGqrGEkl_EK`7eq8!qwTu(8<Na$<z!9o*4<A
zib_mD90~q^VT}aO0{S0_{}XnkTpWLAl=JVj{<o7H>;M%~7S8{R-3A8RCI$w|reHse
z4-iZJ(ZaNFIq~C$IP+2i$Pxo`$RgH<CyZucVf4g9_bHUPBy!hqX)c1S>>&yIT4#{^
z%@e`CFoRtl!SDVD^ZyIMe}$Qxsf(eBp^M>P<o-cb(a_vf*3ih*#+j7;|719ma{kxv
z|AJcNZ)Y2O^ZyAl;J<k*VsGbSYUkoi3S|AS5h70Z4#M^xI{(Bq``?ZnTp(S5+~43b
z{NK2Lqww#@e`!)Sb+&hPGB$N41^u^O%JwdQgO8Mp`M>A;A2a{W0+zqx|K-nrz+2qX
z$=QYUZ}$8zxS2Ws$(?_RQZTYoak2e(><3lX?bZZQ-;+FLRcE_uZ0Uq|(b3ao3R07$
z!(d_Udw<q3dQ$}VTvpoV1{W8Oi3~w@G?<%DWpe3F1wi2Rrou1<z`=b3N4Qc5#3Xh=
zVa;|X;SGobgQyZxG~mr8#bplejYI&A%y%M2S{VK=o@1g5{$-c)t$VFvMtq6rTku4Z
zC9=4u8IV1VSp(X*b-!A)A(6>9(1-R`%;GGH7g55*NbkIJJuCj&U?!Fxg90`*!??Nz
z<%+N<sc(pg8U10+)&usA<-nw#ZXz3XH1e=>eW;_$$`FK*oo~WSY{VrfN0=m}`Ypqx
zt-dsfTx5Qmn=qh&Ra>3(RQ=`s&2>phRZv0^1^OrE(9hc!2h6Gj7iadcx&1QPsSM4Z
z_{f!(8_*X8O=KJ?Esq-d{7oa=#A|aaLlM7^4!EUHXBx>U>8Ok&XT$(H#W1vRRa$<q
zIqX&3r4-+&gC}Kf3eH8WdhAw5k4QtsbU!oTS)v<`evfJo7t7Wkta1)7VRUfO#G0k4
zHvi7N-+dd+Ot>ndRc>$_Q_RFQOWoJl+tF2xJEsC=LKKWVxvNh($Ol{<jB-zTEP@mI
zbzlCFH8&b=%bxxm>r9g;%xm}1p7h}B=W3h4_KYGr8*!<2ht@?}VE9a?`U2{G8xB~X
zlepkKfbA173EM^qX?-RMS;5&D<&dk_Q>W^9r=?@y(G;VSytJr}j%iVfH2At=t=FA8
zs{ZEID`lgxDEnk*QsO7w?k>950`TpLb{snO8>M@a4oJptJj^|bMcktoWbL;2*%Pnk
zCFHxsrw3X&s3IxSw^~ld0)e5`vL6E3K66zZZvJ3ya1R-mWcDA|sZ`syh@9Ttvho|^
zTq1Rl2KqgY8y>r-4kIATQTz$8<n#`;Y%CE9cYDg_v?bmls%m~U`y*TiX)H;2sqptN
zi~bK@z<<j5e-iTlK1cqQ8bA(Ku76L339a#JOb*nIM~yot>N(t=^W^-mUuemtA;N^d
zDq>soAD~ZC_Uh)o`JU|5Z{%&9{(+avsorx^Tdkho@X4NdbIcZwXo$R}^WdYYI09VK
zNVwb0XIvikP`7qy7HtqlXDK*DM{yW<-0g{E0#F+AdO{I?KOZNh3GgOfXAN{5n-*EW
zoE~F_+(&{u-TF$mj}qpck*!8K*U~p#GA;r#)$SaAm4k7hrb{ZWKhv*t6gC2I|7?oo
z>W}J2A!%1dU9LoBa1`H~Xp9_OdwRL>>qx%%z#at5$X_W;FIg7>?}PTHIcj}V6PLIr
zj}ZKCmyfSbZ)p_#xUxSpv$Hwqjj#tirO+@JI+yxHTWw#tNw)^IVH+&4oFhB8)3x$s
zcB$7s@Uz(I_YUdTT%p@L<(kKwH_0A6c_v=ZcUJ8IdO5LDLjx6imq$4*D(>7jK^bN1
zm`VCY7cS%L$GyRHec0a;gzR)}uNqxw>6X<>x0@dZiK*;x42*FR<TcO*7P0)iJw9Hd
z%6`2sm}23?Cae|uWFzU#ZMIki)Nf1g$^*R7N;?xG+4dlq<)K8f(Q1)?h!`-EWgH;@
zk%UGvz`W$>pSh8-C(v0ig0?|&WDcXI;z8n``lOzqvFpMR{|oXNdMT((&226W@acf%
zOn{;**M&^3Mc$uUFy-9BGA;)=yLuyK(z<*Ge@C=wPL$jgVX&Z%)?wI{XM8?wYduh0
zJ&YB6R1qzb^JI_$mFbyvn<=p#e7NwERLBjz^jl|d#X_4Rg55<TR^xF3OKVE>gQokM
z%zj~NQLOOm<Ep{0e)05DLlZgO1i_Ix<p8|;;kqU|c0{=br{i``x~^n%i;el%_L9(i
zp~G`#JY4zE<Byy@I(qk~Jr9saem9{)?MP@3I7|{UU>gS>9u~=OW9M0~rmyM<gJ>Ni
ztGzwTAl6WXmc1l-#fHlmV~rRVPCZ3YvNW=K!Fp(QCqg$Ix#FF1DVXpIzvV#f8$zf3
zerc)KpEQUf&M{Gw4%f4x9eC#T<<hjt<`|;JVdu_Kre-W2BnrCbY}+^HpGK#vOHmYt
z>k(PM;%lqSJD6jFZ28vL9Vu;e>QerGpRSU{P#Ee=$Ji0Vt$VSzgr7^UG#i!ty<*&a
za627~WMRw51t@Zi%ioKdY!*E;&)CakUy-dX+1Fw;)Jk?58?jKE8X7?Xn~+C-y$_pO
z$|j*;2kpr41x+tyqwMm#DGXz+Ux*DXWnT{HvD%zJGhK>`{AHc}!?J(>FV>93uZz)E
zqth;nm9^WZ^~jJaqOE}?{C0EW=@2>Ym|{&0pLGe5+#{Ws!}S)(-`mN=*pU1@Pj6c#
zCb2he9&Z;rd(irb2DLkVSBU8b+s|;_Jl~2huftzp%`hLwxT$kV20+jE<7h7YM4P@Z
zcf^!)_zM%}5`PpzC3w;;n5%6!SibUQw3~1H2M199aN<b0azlrFNG}inAqE+5_Xe{R
zEIW-R1|4}x9g#Gd|K-|P%w&F{t^6x|&xp~^D?aya1~Yc|mp%5LgyAs-o@<v~+BfnT
z$WJ-qVEui^UV8|wXHP&jb$mYno$G2#RQXAa684QcA*ttVXg=sKMGO0pp$gw4dEmb_
z_?P?&d(GNb`PPV|fFTQM|I3mzmD=-+eVsk-ARu`+elb7ArJ)&^aBQ1jR^*_C(lRQ?
z5Iku$a;6>8ZzoM>gFaxptVYAI9J6OZPiM2#cg~qE4xeG-u<oihGRC&Yna&TNf#tvx
zQykMz4gT9rx2ewQo-?L6s^9E<J*ME;$gttgw%x9r_S;gIt<(JASTiHC(%{$yR^7ai
zD#qvMqR{u}{w6?9p7N&&0mLTql<}<nebow{j{<`@f_b+f?*jX-1UN#LlsRZuho4l&
zU;hT2d-&;R?64#)%bbnQA03gIdPlx4F8HM<scmjJ5@FV6gFBd&o57f>ypSEA=UpYE
zpyC*PUg@{6o6af19=6m($&8}=ET3ajrA-sd63WOe-cCRV`s8~F*BX-6S(MOWSI$A%
zfcL={&h`gfI$=3hQUZ@$Nu{VTVWt5lR+2_j&PU{~y<cQoLZSNdspB)xha*blrpOge
z90I+hkZ2y$z?%9Z04Orv<T-jQdCyBDyVYW6yDKV4>0x!_4v(GPPKpzPIsW$U;L)kT
zyX82@I=m><;_4@WmbJZ+|K_5UHm`UG=E}vX>6;+ac8@;;#7L<iRI7}KM`$ZdlqWGb
zGi1jMW(&+F-=tt#-wo^wh#~OHf&mx$Z|L?nHw@4=!{kNv-6#AfJTn->+1cfPS{vE^
zXKfVv=T^t=?_LuiYU*ZbY^p3F{GaZB{<U6$*#2(i<w;roea*~Fc2`wh#txnCa`(!c
zWS+zGN?>C4zhfdLf>OdYgTWmG8$gt^2`d#8MMDD@i_7%~FUXUu3^O95Ej2)qL{&6m
zjwmfP5nqz_@$|erIC%WkwY6q`>HN6rozuhwMyWu;1b|M4AWfs$hV|l{*9exFse1>5
z@$d&P24mJbF6$P$=o6#_aNu~gkHEb}ZX$w9zIB`aIaVkM{8X5$RP6=>8_^#;w2|kQ
z8GI&}AHyt+IA<X*9;S@I6Aw=VNGlFH8O7-A7v=b3uPRNPnGov??q;g2j@kep!#uo0
z;wX#;B?h7KzR4Gd*+*)!NTp6-UF$g7fI`!d!6GP|5jZP7&@#eO2T_n+(5{`p912?j
zoQDY54)svGB5j3*X18sQ*AVSYGO>16wv)NuPM`!%h=4qSgrt%EhGQnW(K1;*cCbkE
zkFR)+w#WJ8I_cUv+W6^sY2TGfKii);s4mXQyWpRGvxF@@hMw2FDW8BDOhi~UoTBJV
zd<Wxhh9GtSM9DZL1EUo4weGnd^0e6X49EGRY#SBL!om{WN|+qqn%i^g$Nh%nd(B62
z?beeLdNCGm3ZDSw;<%wnCq*aB&&QWEx;umP$vgPTc~x_(i9Zs4aK*)|BwA`Q*4oLb
z)ZuAU?Vr(K;OzNX7XHb6rl6f^9Z!3o1I9M?MRFq-V*iNWKOYqw-Ba=R{nqPYAPV$u
z22L?|9p_^X^!sbIL-<qtRP-z15jw7{IovZ|r1h>f+>AdMB{<dyBvvlCO8^-&q<Swl
zCj>_=#8ZF)D)JHpb{OoaKMF{QX$28p5N!qe;fJ&$<cSc41vrf$EGH6^|M)g{E8K-Y
ztN~P1;E@4LC-^NYlpz^NG+>`hO%eg*KS2s(g3>0$uSklCEGFWJih?fOHiKRIg+7=*
zPrDTD1)CdM*S}gAa)!?WGyTW+;LU+AvOmgdL6t}Z1Bfed4<Ug&Yz~B(Fh{-5SMse8
z)q$~n=U32A+&-|x0XYK=Uj)OxASsC;qQUI`cp^iS{Ms+UP8ux9r5xHwsw)X_LckL$
zj(4X;jQEjXfT+|=tDyQNB3N3)RuHRzUP(gfyp(u>ae>wf<{nN?oFNZshTQ^iNAE(&
zjiKw$B*BrpK9e%zKC}0S0~awQWVTP!kQca<3N^tk3p@lX#&RZR@y8pOFsjq^tOQ>|
zJ`FWBf?k0*`+f#I<2oaCBYee{7%bbJaJXpwLWq(Q%J7SAXKEM55u??!6H^btKJam%
z;d=E6-G{Fm!4Fa(CWl56!{v)xkby9SAxqwm8R1q@4@nO(O7z9>r9m+Al-6)fAzt}T
zVM3~IiqW_`DW*cnpK*-|E<rBYF0pqJveecIM5AaX;GQ&X@jmfysc-5($PFoXsQQvu
zXqBjDnSiv{!svi9s$<GFb&y2;x0}L!q)|({&cx=#NK6&0K-HuLx-!EuEz5|;vc?>j
zdY3wvggdokDZI+4=BNxr9cul<+6l2VAiVHwZmXhZB4eW07}XdjmdIkBml8&)*n)lO
z`vRU8-l}PRUcFYmTD`f6gvA%Rj6*S*{G=KAnGlQ16k33zcE47=vDEm_J}PIY2&Wh)
z!ZzVH^)?=-%Y)+^yPNQvjsu>361rT>J1huH5Ee51H|13ILi#oOdQ1c?1=>xGA4zvf
z5J^jPMCvCh>1ygq4~p_?n>9X4p4!31yQM#Km5ZI!O{J6at!l>97*+U6UZR*}-1BK>
z8UFCy;jvM%DX`^fS84aGb+*TNg?VLrRlHCj{eTgnP%n@z&@mQQQJdFb(P+@R?Z(!N
z%)_c_QmD|dme-Nsk@e1S3w<bz$&5*nkCAVf649-%4zx?R%et`Tiy{^QC|&w*%K2(;
z2@B};NPmWa+Zb5(vT+(P*J5@pc+uHgZp;~q{LD)*3^8ojDMgzc`9(WjI`AjBuGlf?
z+HOy8Pk|bnT8jFf8b#JrRwMN=%`NT2s@Q%QQ~~O+m1lS7*s|EP{BTO^15MQjj$ddi
ze)VB&)^gGDX>6?D*J;+2*Rs?W(^1nwVkt%R69?`^u&u4FdKKJTp1QLqvqNNHu=lLs
zuTihDugWtmYfWkC_4rK4Z^T$?SaTRDw8S<Gm<a6V9`?GFI(zJv?u@wEIAl7^IZHcm
zAKvw^4yIlHKIA<z+N<9@=w#SE+0p*9c1gX5y{mrwu%f%cH`TT3J3P>Dob}67p|Pap
z$ZpyYU<ydqC|I6=ufRIhxbsNp4D4j+%6a<pdga^hW4MLY?d?NSy`Vj+v$_NO*7^4E
z#CNlNt#JFv4~DT#qKI|HI>XA$QOgmAj)}E^c}Km%)k^s!6lNF3T*#veVg)q<U6>}=
zDp_qzlCI0|E2={of}96<C~DF2(2&p?DmK(Fb@_-b(X>#x8pX}!meMP%v6iT-_%NvO
zhN8IfqGOOF?IJ#U?~Ip#=Ej{y<;G^3OqITsM>Y~}c-|4lzvvER2iJy@hvkP?ht9(@
zBHY6Ou{nqB4h(Go3|<T?^h5M_^jJzJ%3!J{>b;)@2@2OH9^swYm`RD1i2<sC3qKa(
zSu+~DELnW)zl(4uc2jq$2x7g<-ov>D>jW3zJ>aR~+5at0Dws)`U)R6X-#56MDD1Z$
z`E(&S#WYp(XfV1vU;ObZxo;xKMFJAEb6D9-Y;ksv8qd#822F-%_>HiPGE91RQQ637
zbUS?%ztvR{>trBM!aqR|tlP9K+DO<Q*<EfKb{l`jC<LGNTZ>VP9f*-cXbmlQgWk(`
zD}uA?cwS|`${=6#pY5LGubtPvT9mn1${()~Z}FX*-qrWlFMAg}=rQW6>ovsIDzw@c
z_Lt;4_Z)ucz6z)gYiyP|Ra;f5mv1WZx%>MXT;=ZdCF38Y=chl0wuW9Tc`Y<ATP`P&
z3=>XqzBTeUc0XDVFGnN6BZ(oA#9qZj5hC%f&08$4tQ0P&&LMIjWR%2+5qCUCpK@d|
zhA=i&H7@1vZMR-MHP{#Q5OMGL=D$+znT)$@Z>hB?t--J7J)AwH#XQBtPhCv~s4&R8
zy05x5`P$#T$In}pR7{Oz({aggX85`7e4A=py)8Q`0SxNmp2nPfcW_)BTIU1jdr#>E
z=(e4Ge>SR7xol%_(~#G1YV$h5-_!o(I(~ZYi|uPGp!qhlWWT!gec(j=NbWR47jhhS
z3Yi;Gul2y|^v1SkefhGolZ6=*<l@fh<gw56da>VC=nc3u|DEGkdrbCXxI<AUaS)qC
zy!>AJXnY!WFp{RUJljnpq(B^1H=O;M_%R=P{Z_JHa)42e5uIR`P*U={#ExI*-R8~n
z<o5aaM^2Gn_4mBj-41<1zvB!oHkOZ{pH4f=yBaq&F`ar3?cPg%57!y{9JkKF_6J+U
zzP~({U-{482Yn7<&q5<&y+}IvJ^j2|<2q}vGQc3g9)oUQ|I;4ypK|N}bA5*W-*=i;
z2Ds1z#9&akV0Wfq|FP)9@&8IF3(Mcrg#X^r0!dl_o+mK>yOu^BSRXa92mY2W9N|cp
zFZ~FyGgzXcP(g9R2vlTHKWCIBzjR4rd_{{x?^T0B!z8P&2=fQj?X1m+i8*2+B)htw
zhrz=)>ymjse#&tH0I}q+>+i7Lnf6mzX*}msnJg@1fnioEa9RttCgRH%J-+t~urs^}
z``BMIFA;t_ZxfLhP{q&JTTCUU^?Y!5BFC5DC{<yrn0?b{_1a8i&0oDFlQ(iS+}tm?
z?)xr^RT1B94#aeQWR;{Y7r@_X9%4BHRO^~ge-FaJxF_N^b`v6Ii{ch!ZNck5H9KU?
z#z---6@M`re4HH1(DJxM|8&XcLqS~yOr>dXn!gm7#nEC}t_{bTy0hESgyv^5P9@O_
zF;G<vG|m;$f=+pgE!UDQ{ltqi1Uq#1wGnc6@c2onP@#2Ephr2kyQXc9D2zKi%=iu#
zFzh8F;~x13+Y<Wy<}C1aLm%k#k{Yuw3UU4zkChx4=vct=NusFu>lH5lfqWtPfU0pf
zQzkm4yHOM&e{A$7e<H0#p{iQ?9j+*{u2JP^{QHu^WefJw#rVf7FA}YGag}v9<hg=)
zlK0vfpx;gbja?&PIfYK%^Adp{--k9IX^t**c-A9buq`q4MWNUzJt8?xp2dQC@@Jlw
z2Rn36Bx-t)CUh8;him03D{QL7ttB|)U=P>!@^PF8yG97k4EdXm?D9Oiwlv2~^vff8
zSsS=Q^2n9ZHg!85pECkuLR8V**Agrj1}|Hzs$w=A#45NtWo?<$ndz2UlBx0K<u4mC
ze(p0cQK8X|;TQQGK&Fd4Z;Hl@qVEhF66-*-!3Mb*n-p1I-(<Z!8VdlQw8B{PSHX%h
z>>W3{pSGN^whoY1t-O_k<?q<R+NabDx(ijR%PzpX@qXp63+J>(OcJt5kteY6<I!l0
zjyxy19<I@<773MpP3)a&OoayztsIr67x83$<V{C=?z8MZ0j5uk+G@40eOT*Eo~<9<
zioc0KZxUYqA3@z7lAvViThb?yMvScoCa)m3J$*J5bLopBzWO5wRe7vCT)voWpP$+J
zzRG@i=0|e^#rIfblk<1xUN98<o@=pbhg5IIlg=|;xlOQz^1=G~J)~ca%4Qhu=*>!(
zk5RjX>}SWnbkX^di2h;j61kj%71yn8IVO0k&L5acQH_N$Kzd?Xd)7;r#K3@&%Vu@#
ze{$qn)k-U15icr<CItFup3IO1!Xn8^$x9Q)&Gc+F`M%zD7cVdJ)tq=eo9c2mM%tg+
z&$nw8$QYe0R}twljGa0%vk)v$4GAzW<5;8+)UH3nqIAm!y?ZL|2h%x0@|VIaMPXbW
zj9GN212Iq=XvxifM5LicSPnkDC~u9oKPkU;_v$CScl(OVdtpDlnD{jV9E5Lney*RJ
z<T61xI!f-ySgL29A>g)kC-(LR4;9h1jgHiGy1D!mC}V!9XHq5BC1_;V%nkIDZ=21_
zAq!t6D{|*rDr(<t0%zc-`g_dC$j3m%#m>Z}b3!Y1h;>B?-3bD0sVbRipE6w5_qc3y
z<Bm<Ae>1Q5bJ~2W^iK*EEmD`ZJTC90%7P?%9}S3+>9z@>$AM{oN>G8wdLQ}fs`>|7
zyf-}d`c>MG40F?O*F#P&d&y(h_&b@97?#Ln(9r~(sR*1>Pb;TVa?>k1ElGf&lvgtR
zE3H8D5A=4oDdg0)-O=yg=Qve(>2_%H_S-%<XVvK1UOxMG%>sV<Y?<oLyxjQle(bdY
z44TF#0kqhln%ae&%*r)e7j;rHJW4W!WwxSD9gV^1aWSgm2s6oPc$fQWIMy4Q@-K={
zq9n4DBR{2F>IDl5!4OHZ=x5ldv=YZtl+!aR;c0JfO3eA>G}?2LAFqb^-Kg$!ZIogJ
z6DVDzI}+zAN5uk`+UgR3{E<Fdb&df+Hmv&10u{_UcRvNFXRcK`ndG~biiJ1Gjhs!C
zob7!Q0pn3k^<wryI|O0+AA{W<sDT$hg=P!FeSNjWzdEvZiv2>Z6zBh<c`X$<L?J^d
zhfhe5LR9jdNwH8<mzstj6)RZ-5i<`|_L$jXLElWPD4{QH=%fj5ZF2Gl;^g;~uDnWP
z@OPlHX!r%;L~NypPuon|h<Ldufc+Mlb~5DvaA*Ds3_+i(7u^um8UK)*yecU^G8x@m
zDll=0j`P}-35LK7{YA)}zzhTH7IR>iv?Bx}gh!6?;0+>ql`eQI!z&_p?wN}7dHSJf
zsn9{@Y3<GSCqTiO)Qsb^m$wHn%u&l~pQH0rUpqTak(-99rL|>bK)}SQOn{=ozVhp7
zX(fSiN|**)t}2DA%dV*|^CM;QYxLsr0o?FORAyy~vB5z#ah94PzL~O}k(;Lu@3_~R
zL?UTZ@eF*?mnTudeOCAYT0DUVOU)Uon=(c$(6`!Y(y~aSEFtJu*`i3pEV!&H7dT~_
z?=w=95wnA-b}BvzVvoP$bibu%F!D25{iq)FqcC`SRqDNaWZ;lh$P#SqVFoI$=g{80
z2Y2_(c?WGq1{kseXE=@I=_l`vv-|zW@-;<}#AHm4*N@r@8g@VMy~%lyMQnNF60k}a
z@tk`w1Te2*;P!?2Xcd*?XvT!nw8*PCzDo+RhcKFl(TYGc#fdOxK^h?@S`Iph=0n^e
zaVr)Bgh&;C5{+DZ)k|k%(?LE;1w(px6mO~E&2rln(`}F;c<LCp$H)<Od7~$@%Ckv~
zFJi6xvTM3p9^dJzcmp9ojJ5wVv&N2PVo+Mq#>%a32@j-NJBO#rH@+7^U##D?UXDgy
zXeY$m?b&Vu;N%oyTux4@2dCtzaYJkpVU$LrHz8O{XMt4(N{EPRUHM@}(C2s4)=O<k
z6ud<O8^VOgGdn#9O9=!hQ4)Hj^$GC(0P=)Xhhb~nv5?ZISZp<cZY{eKm(C<N`Xo3H
z&RRG<nuLSBg)1e%TDlHaWi;I7=Xxfk__cOrU2S}|$KP<O-eQYLQh9ep28)8CPYYu;
zQJap3cgI9cF$i)`3clmj8bqMYAMQHhACbW{OTHq#Q+XS1po1)oU)N`xw#~W`ShX>;
zcBEqC0r=3pl-t-<TejzU8}dZ>IB*^4&*1V9&$1bA8O=PH^^p5)y;y?y%;=i%z6`lt
zUEtSC3CrIu`EA?<y?WD09V3%!o(Zii6$&@9QR3W7oO=-v3w~@3NkUJfs2a5Nb%4>3
z@FIL86Oml7j}te})uQ#m%tD7LK{{{OTq#-@UXQ4b4%*0WC#z96-+?|Um=zw&p*u9%
ziE<afskNnVK%Sj&?qezh8KifGwIgU!h3WjLr#+tk1K|RN-qbxIEz)kvy7%>K$ai2>
zLyOW6$IP*)Jv(d@=aD`^Z&D0g=!xJD^xQNe8B;R>@`jv_DK8{X$iou!iiv{s9MRPn
z#k606Z<k*T5o$GW$PI9?-kCls{e2=TQ?8kMnP3ILtK-NIB=PgNKOo-l;muWK7}k;K
z!>?Pjn;{>q+VC`UpS5bsX{Y96t7C%hVeT7~3#Q3|Nk7^03wee2C}vIwx#1KvpgUk~
z`yLYtfDpLjhL<*D*Kd%_n5Z1fda$yPUW(bSA=KXxC)zMCSEa9&BxpCkL%k7CzKR=|
zKs9bQFhf|A=iamJF8A~N?7z{|d!OLX+h#5Fu!oIkL7q{Ik8|ZC&^aT%Am$l;pY+JF
zW7~8$7g`FP0Qc$TB}GVuc&F;cwiej1YRO+5Zn;2<hB%F#u@2)Dq-iKhEE~qNvQ(eN
zo;JCz#>XW)c)wt$^Uf2nGTPT_?}pFjFxhhCZ#z6~6zh9Oa!SUMIEKe<akRq<&FX?5
zv5s_vzkXEC^aMk_(XuipDdP0*8v?f_I+7cD`uMZ!?_>vMH}6EnOsHA#JnW#kUK-sH
zTOAS9^u>A3&B_^@Te&$zV@!{AdaPh{$tY@ZBhlu&7|R5jGBW$)Ea{$@m9?EXiLVGt
z6vP;dSvv_i??7tUvkl@dagt>Gaoq3|Ry_d~zJ8p3A<({PX$fUvs1wfmx3rb5o?Q5$
z#e_M6f3(qJbp&}iuUQP2PUuZM8(dub*m-Z_mkoA<@*VO{tX7g0y8B?k>P775cZdx^
zgNTJoFuVFS3SOvG?6E!Z3grI#0GUENj;mTv*tspFv$%G9|7p1u+(VgOjIdYoD?A%y
zOJCI(h-&7|Afg-ot73=~&^Itw9q_inPOY)v;U0@%Pv~`q3w*;sO*~C~4MlrX5h#5u
z>-2h@ACKWpTB`^`f9sjFmasPY&7GSC(JTx27wqwtwRSqOz3fV-%uD0jU&;88uH`FB
zi1XL8SkwO$Li_EpDOCm^;<XJwiCE(us(0BXt;VXvYqu!2>|I#25&Md#T(uil<%j1r
znbc_uR5~WoF9+7PtqaM7dv1*8s~P#m(*{>j#ra=0@(l06RQhh9UMk=g_<N!{_cHTh
z;QBvX06ixz8fVWgh+&h#?hiU|I8QX7+VG4w3U`u&?L&`(@D}>)1QFu-3El-Zt>lxl
zq*|<he_?g>QZAkk1u0#^Obs;7t_mhVPq5Vk3TEZ=YrNBuZISaBhr47NpiKObOZe&q
zjx4^4k~GmUOt?+lV(t;usFYKjF(BEZ6vOENOzeGyl8;!g0_q96)SHORKZ{?qR?2L=
z^RnSznE^JczUPginfm^otXsDfHx|$zM2nBCfwEvXmOrv2o;PW)+G;Pq6@H>M6TmbR
z5^T-C&&gXA&Jw@t3g7pi<uOeeRrXP_F6jlDTmNA)NN9Eh1;77jPln62N8-}Mw$9i$
zG)O0A=)W-HF(Mc~V_*5Ls}yU&rgyd;XGXu9Rh&jFaF&G`M5Cl)&gJsUA7I(;ivA$u
z?tpXpN@-<_1NH<_7eb&Md%q<w+!0pi3U&Je9!+6{<kVnr#D;Y$`h*|z_S#1+*~G&9
z05VW9HIP%W-sY{V)>1I)1a~vG+69*7u_RHi2G+*7&R8#E3DUHER3fet8f96^&l*+D
zJ3F(S5?L9;=KcB|UDrC)tz4ZKKIPpw1V_%Bn4dK}(*;#Iw4xVV-v#kK%xe|z!rsVM
z+>fKdEYA)fx55vd`4X5v>HP;9{1mPoE0y+IA?o}aH+Z5>f+gJ24=LPVS%axC*=T#~
zT2k&pE%JY~@?+H@v$U*q&2OdBQO?XQIYK9w3AX~1)m1<f3boX{R*Bk4!+Js16h3L5
zL`$f><w1OK9<Q^-4uX#vYEpoZ?zS`+hT6f*SnkOZLTBh`aO_mLR1J(=5@~RQvFBZ~
znpc0ZUL%7%qTJ($rdn8fOMHhaNB<>ljahA2>z{#5qptw4(~y>$pV@qOrC@K<=ttlu
zmuJO0r2sNpzgHkWgfGoiU0lE07=#}_ZiEBOzHFnI`4#b!f@Vd_-m5S1$DZ5ZIx-Jq
zOo*s%cw0XD?JExMUdl|-gLt|Laet>z=1qW0R4n@vY#iS)bp-^wj=}^iAF%m!*1!P3
zjFJlR<S%T%tq2zNQ&M=nvgB}yF%`CEz^651O>2numx@Io*#ed^#iCcTcpk51uU9VW
z2&@;Rib-0F@te&r53$UKvE`lo@#XVx2Lq45l_w6HFtDO@Zwvot;7|sNQIwDHUM-V5
zhd|&5#tPk*GPg;)XX-Hiv@%oN{Z=7cixOZDr@fz0%y*IuH$|i@o(t7-t}J6UaxK+3
ze%WE)x9)muL$!j8iYEcAvPfQq5daJFU$zJu#Khm{h5n85mbAvhp$zW<zvN~(jTD0~
z6qrYF>5KHP7Vg^hGX%U%(A*&Za22eZ>@LYG8!ifMZ}mB(eFa(fz%!*d|MGSMqxO@Y
zPI`r)9~srUxCGVt+5+F4BQNjiuo=P~yhduFK%(nDYV&J>#EiNE;K@#Gp^rA0?~0@C
z;v<C_S>kM#6&4>d<-}o}SyI=c=K$Ad$oK-dO~4onN3^ss+#7>%;c3H*;$gp=<XkYU
zCpyyOk^?>#;0u36C&F7uK+@dp(lFIZV(kM(i0)MhI3L7UIiGL+<!@g><-#-7k4m>H
z;6W4Qs*Q}PT*FZur|Hcy^UziPDE|A%|6QASp*@fdoM=6i>OyLp%mCIwz=7b-=rSL>
z7HH!~hHQaB9eK8Q6tIcmfFD|`HV!RJ&ojqIwJ#Rkfm1eOiO?a{3rTP!KT!t3k^5Gg
z7NkI9gS^uc^18qCo#QPm`Ec1K<DhRXOS&bEC&2X!4FzwE9SboOa=h_(c)tDzSzaA~
zPiOF@Ocbi=zBQhuuXzEf1U4&5#*={3;H)2QyKwtm*eep2wZICfGxBAm(EEI_r4;Ts
zSK&EK{viLIc00~E2}W>d9LD)p9WegU2<EK*Nm>@t_aYt(=<WgfKLp@NMLk#$n{;nq
zcLYZ7aaYQH0OUCQIu5v-p5kOH`gtc*;P0E_BYs>a#@q7X))he6B8_|X1MKePxV{n>
zF8px!a5q%fZFlj0_R@G;+(1#gLnbsF+w0;VRxEibmwdDaS^0r)neS|W+%*sKE9tx3
zdGGIIa6p6$Th1%4(7lY&P<t3B)YojTIJtf*_5R00>7<I0A#k|ssOA|9t|>EKG6SiF
zz=(9Ix8QWiPJbYL?)&^eK(pVV7xG>q^qOEU93DC&xj`Hr@-^}-a%qbVf{*uo(dAFU
zszQZYq>ogYx+ytj0mR#5L>l7m)l=MC@86GEUYZQjK)d<vmd3y;<eUW^1ZQI!-hs}O
z<A^(ba>h%X0g|TIQ(wa!?+Csv(XLnoeaZdErXJ1{v^Ao|R5$OS8kR4f{LrlZ?vc;L
zA4>LI<~i1%oHqIbja!=m)q9@A&k|y`%AS$tdOIRLC2!_W+XAKcgYSs<na~0{PeucA
z)v<R?^}lfxW3@aKG_IMH^x9%$xu8vnkv}_7Y9!)MBQ;6lJ|*1hUz^whjH(JWA=&3l
zyt&udq0eCih%dXQzfu5vvLK!~8JS~$jlG05zy&iJ9-*=MyI0R>!ra9jp}xEYOcStj
ze+l=xhdR8`f~XbAq4@^A4<XjSWs>QdjH)ESPxFO`LKD+bocWIc7YXVS*p4}Pe<)HG
zc&A{r$m>TwqrTH+Kn^CuCe5o6)8;GJ3pt+k8u5yVf*?oq+UdK%x|i(bfg6T*!^LAZ
zWfKSO1M&p;!loCY^9b{k&O5En$xex(e9G(h+7zRM>@?g8vD&~$x=DsLYXO@Q^)T<C
z;a(a-hUG)zMkq}p<jT|Mummd7$DGi%oN>No0cCr=qxi>zD>`S>ZYu!xb31@G1N^$k
z7S#vik}inILAVg8?_R^AUxM2Kd+1NxC>=9NT-)^-;RUbbg*#Sh8#D5*YzUcZ{m1T=
zr|H*mTY?iG!PSLN<!QeJ*8PyC*jl&Qk5>SATkJ`G6@MrZP~nC9R`lB*&67J3(9dQV
zH?W7!_xz-5IjR4WZ+X*cFx%5_ljG>cS{581z5~Y9zA7H0Ifs|%^bx-cmNAae$6DNj
zi&B+9^^)N9$jh%4GfcdreerbwJ(&>2`=0+w?~w?+i-QMDv;5IYLwkMX%T`9xYh5SJ
zI@<IC@z?Oykv%Lt30{#5yb@ZGm?4S<wCRg_1jU}%0Fy$`aIbu#*VHW){R*yOOOmm{
z)L3+HRzZqWRHWpOBF+XcjT07w*vSTxT=I&<h$_~V*l`P(x2X^__m!`|HgZ>f-MW<U
zobg;Cx}`M)nC)al%$f7yIic8d_3z4-d|NfY!dS$cIIp$8EIeM?NIdpU7|RD;6CEnz
z`J`@Sx0FukL|vjikZ-a`uKAoES2s+3@1NR#szfx!A8Mx96v}MzI2;W+PgdaB&)%E9
z7#|}Jp41f{h~DcP@K`1+>`*P{+u`^3k{$Mz>_#|9GIwwv<149K;$9G1Z-_rKoSVX&
zMpn|906(v?dE`08e`?>Ab>r(-OT~~jpt%#-v_9a{@-8e3bT^6ccp`Qyh;<*oBukOM
zBCZ&&tYr}o&}sY~RPO?@1`Y`Z5fU<m=?QQH+CuyMDCo`_<R{2Mf#5i15r*IfvmMGN
zpg4<CB&*+iIRl*it|4)dxNpmWQp<UkVuegU<?qrPhxTd4`QA-4efRXuo}TN4P+<w$
zQ*@lO{oJ%eA;|9<L^)<85Y8!3>TAihG|%j36OeuWAcVhjWEKDL28zC7VdIzR2)oUU
z<QnK}@z%I+OZ$C$YP_Ms_c_`G=3ul_QNi*{^_4ys<**yvDke$tSA*@s8aE=ruJrM8
znJ4@$<Y8;hAaN_F1WS(_3CItFn^!-atHz&QdZcaISE_hi@iiWKNwBSEBLM`Qejdm@
z>{+*<*#5=gTM?AH-s2jZ8h+7J^wkx`;DdnlP;i3b{5)6_5_IgAeYww@90Q8vy3pO$
znjo2;!EKANDGXQ6pNdJL4(HQc;DT*dj9Fp9@-$|$2OR!AW#x`GXJ0CMq+MPow7tPt
zdjuQel9^d@oiX=DbEjW>f<1wl5b}*(8Q7p$dQDY1>CiW*nrtB;ofct5a_ht9A!ru$
z8_bbQ>;J_bEZ_|LR*<kDcd-%SmLBUS0JScDrf@l!xe|cyxhY5#F|c%!HL}N8Sp)HI
z7$`fyp(R;1Rgrj-hS+nMvwyoF;vH2eTETFJRu_^>GD#ATJblJ0xxeF5bnv&{vt!(k
zOtWL2Zmy{Jz~ZjFCiavzwp^Lp*T0q6UHrgO6iYYt;8wxH-O<2*G;i*M9=V+YZ&NJ4
zo2ig_y~w#mAjDU+VD6iD+ZAg#AFFiabEsHu&5y#5I-RTnTY<V~jsAw?Xh%B*eeY>N
zi+m%L$%^)?0nPXo?~&}4>&~<BHSS37k>S;GC184QodmiOtl7}F0%dj97w&!Q7rHa8
z4b-$%<<JxHL>X@6Q17o^aNFCW0rdbza2~ehkZ7~a!sG0WqU_~Y%O&N?;}W1A^LOAc
zm&TX=hYs-O@leBu@DK4J4u;{VZ-F&~9M5F7jo8ZcCm`MIj423uf3ZZ`DS2@FKW{FO
zJ`=h(gs#Q=`rrg;dJ*^Cj7z_P<&#yKQNNPoN^>miD`?ifWtL632(Wf1p3DDfVDey>
z*;V(gZb$P#O@-BwyPM}IpETue6hO7t?$zFBoHEf+w%!AaZuXk_ga7(^wOG{C9Sk3U
z*I8mwqFnEvCND5{tL+$r!1Mq~iPLU<MWkEsfH&2)T#H~!<#WZ`I4SC?{&hNJ$lK^o
zwd9JiHAFk*$ZeiAC93|&lceAl#LZX1oG+eCqRD$c*XRJn80X`4q3qz#W<s2iWfV_r
zCdF>m5$7GFamQ{qJA{Ae7__(};b<oVn*#*Nb?q~RaF#ON)IF^I?%0(*^gXu5k`RxZ
zN}0=e;2G4T2Kabk$3b?ApiY~F=qAivwtuF^&>LMh2QX$RD?Ij_2KW{S=~T>skg67?
zqO-l+0iz@T`!t$?uXj@m)#C^M+)nLX{A*tPb8m=;vf#_j$)+*7%+v4tGhkn!@E9L7
znmI(1lfnGjqlzz{!qdm@1o0_K9PQNMISTDY14MTtr@cK`kJMz2ujUxb!%*t&5O+KD
zwI24PcWF0g3J!Zn7b@zJgr?uUZ)YD_8_b@$oI`V><xR{Q=Tm+aAw&+?`m^yMhWql^
z@09a;1G+erO&AYoA6v~<sF8BdLx&yKY~dSk_>C04;67zi5<>1rtg9x%<``&&wQ1-S
za2ZNJV5{;itiPO_=~dyan*(0$;3)D1x5N{;K|=SdV_$3b`&GjOtb!NEKfOCs;B_Z!
zEnyYXN&X=xI-NsEz}VB8c_1`*5uN#_0DY#}+<iqqKXE%(_n?k=27cIscbv2LB`nQu
zi<i)i%`$r=bn&$!><Gc1@D55P94C97z~J!c{OAzgk@>+<%6ub@aG~z5$V9lj9!Bj&
z&_;Zj&{wqC5*XQq5hNcP3uTYGGxHw5B{AiP+9J-~9SIS&;FK7$aQaF|;4c71FwjrX
z-w&~B_?ExB_sTkPaUpHM6&K5VTr0?gYV3y6UG$97tDH;0j77`;E2}MCaqC#v7so7Z
zIKnxI01PN7wX%^0-uullG~{yp&2L+vZR?d}1N!^RW8QQ}h=u4)k>U5}OT&ku!P~oc
z-%=KK4*i0wvswaULX_{2Tv}VJ+9i+hpgZDG=u61Z2k;;O)8X1@nu}lE5*XUcjBf2G
z8ZW|k5*(Hz{Rv(l;O)v#B~kn>*VEO=mDa6cfq`E1Gpb>;z{+8qxyjChC?`q-jqrmA
zktt5EKx_6+RNUiG{=r5+`BMj^;u5@T?Bqwn=4+04ojg%FU|M_JvZV#b#QDAjbI~1b
zhl4Sw<{kMgw2D>#w+!S1XOA*0xFd@E@7M+!GF!fS;Uk=|qx*7aQvRd57^P;;1oRpA
z6a3{?4V>@t@d^XNk9$yuv)>$#lz#^%+_$M^vE;^Rcv8<SX3HFFcR=f&Rw*QNGC1MS
zbJ8HYdSp3eYSS)LK3(R}3aFfQX|C^#Uuw7y&1B!mr`{7~qX=hA4)K1FW#{}LjJ+3L
z5t^jae#wNuT0mo0Y`kZ*IebUgISX9)Cb%i!jj+RMMgAapHv6KtlE5m}nB*G7bi@Mv
zRAMabEpxJ|ow(vx$6|p|%jH6XRJ-(3chBzX`w8tue>jg>J^z8#wDwbPw(OYeg;3Xr
zY+3fw!eBy(Q=wwIFT&W@hkKp^8=eEc&IhL{3n<UbvCM%NJp&onPZWz-C)TFRVHU{S
z74ix9N0q$B^ZtwQHKekV1YyS650)Wcf!ql^DSmLr8pTZxmw5J2L@x8>WA6anp=^iy
z@AXd|i19uC-31n-eA{e|B0nxk;dyRlJdbMeOVE1IHk-aJ{<157WQ?6vG-r#GyRAgA
zBp$BYv5Wy#hJ0p6aVIJQUsg~be-ub=pkUAWV50h!B*N+9?>F>f!@m|#KVAxU>Y{X`
zlJ-nXKXU9O=x8;j`?|h@8|0xyo10IZZYTIDP&{8I85FeOxK9jr=gf!uY<`Qn?7NvN
znSK__z8{LXWVWJlZSn39^2Qrl#bTY>6y-0x59b|xXAx{%Rx&3b!g`GCgyBO-vyTPw
z*GkOZviEV2?{PsNUexTq;kc5}ber$9E%VEEW%;DrcZmaO=fyi1<mxka2qyCoJJ`FM
zz**O=LO;+SjoG#{&X+l9>&A6y4E&^5H*@ILUb)zAHlyvGV8$Z2M#|)D`A~$23uW#7
zd{AmsGF!K7E(?;C_6}OMBnGii@12X42ueab_3=)5;kAV8ve%x9#T79ekCwfD@omfX
zrFN${@rI}Bqv}UFPV=W9zd^re3L#x(rR;P;D$&$^w8Xoo0ZQ06RaEyEN{kf1jM1*E
zyaP0f^k0B4rd=m{2JKHeY&*{QHTj=I-*wtD@Vf$uTViKmZoe?%fYtbCQrz{xJ|zS$
z;+9*D70|hG<lEx*_Z#(4HzM=WT=G;p&qdV?61m1O>~6y{K={IBqWX1fQ1l>>-q5IK
z2hb}VdoM3P-ol=k2eMsg#F=JN?rp(_>Acyp)&$%>k>6AH+jjXberXx)KPz9YRY0aE
zo$@?`Yh>x(EXVF8H=vwNBXz)k7d%SA5nePLv4c1N-Jmq;mr^SslS{8&AOYpXRz2Tq
zQIU=rkby-%PHJA!!I2~YCUDY|fVxt#rBOJb%O>jalj)XjBrQ%rXljvm*)Pyhx}c&w
z(1M}qF)t?+k|OuSYs8OUwTNEzLN)H0zf|!VdY>7IsOE(Fk3gBc{xj@52j0#Kn9UMy
zfg|i3(|l@yqjuo>iC46M#l)OuzM`ji-icIn7XA=^yRPtgA1+ek{GZZUeh7_4QIC&$
zA{Z;gIc96&X509W*EEMj%S;77S11oz8x7<96Y2Zzkvpf#bVFly@|^M`O!{kAjSr=~
zlk@b_Olr~x+-({{<y`DtpU=uy$d_*lQvshF0_CNq&ktz~#5Ic(xbXFvqaf-QW;#PB
zmV}Jd-y{1l)G}#b4W0NBhGemUS|cXl3D2_C#-Nl@Lh6RJ2_sO#C?fTInyfJ>NeY-i
zCmWH92}+wN^q1mK;H7Spr3R*rm_Q_4%MJra4S!BjMviJy8>gCp@Fpn(M`@{#W#>|(
zOh7+I9jO0S5<qxkCSMZzWMP1KBb32Xpae?la9J2;DTBEjDFNzb(D8U7O2VdWwc%Xk
z=%TC_s4YSYg<1o2Jhcx`y^;F&S$D34@l+SXxil#nYN9k3gSl)e9_nk^HPAJS<p5<&
zc&wB)bye!Ou|lc@O=`weR`a<iDHUqDR93UOFewpgq||Tylp#{S)c2_irplpGw$!t-
zR={whUDI8|UFNzpO<7rL7>v0=hcu`(RbZKkQ^=?#br0~FBf$^&oHPoM{cd)HkwB7`
zY2@^C6h*e%-08=tBlQ;WIeC;rHU{{dKB`2m4}AVPiX+Q!euI~wkml3BpCkLxw|^<i
zZ+62$O#*z58-<nKG<OOb^_JZ<y+KZBNh377!A{^vdrKN6kVOW1W{q0QB7;1WMj2%F
z%$)p3^;0_s_r<7R(>i<iJ*lUGp2?#uvL6%smejAQyhHm^)C$a=nWM(C^r?v~aLk^G
zqk7cdsb^+4UlMd>iOuR0Mnz<aO>StYQJ9}85?<31fvbHcJPEI<HpWhX1n*QE)B51i
z4Ow=Uw#ZRxYJ#-iqb86EJgL8@_EBW*jO(*Uxv8zw5<yx6CTt06vg)9=B)AMdnE&r>
zn3vk-6Zik$_JC{i-|ZaN=KrQi#lk^UwB@VyEY+qlXtRZA77MqiHl83U<qLB#II4(M
zaHDdR&mc*ERWk}lU)K1>4QAvxR3wEOnW$Mh2yt)I4X;}=$Xk@D<7i1fNJwSI0F)6+
zD;q?lD%NO}4M;5>RHceYO3fEl5*s%O6UIuf6b(Rsmfoj}uNb7HqAqvAP_^hp-%I@a
z)`?E|SE^xppm?|}l{iCu-XJa2T#}@UQ6V}-B5w5{GnH}@t~MGElu;OZAcIk;Fru=N
zftU@wsI=G_bC?O$&qPVpX_!(MIO#i$;}<%|Ds*4934ZB2_0bxo{1kKzhFO*H3RN?{
z#8%~lIo)uE#6QKL)AGRs`VCWQ7p43L^sK}`rJ}G@YZaC2bZ9j<HWfko;q3IMoK!ya
zy4F<MbdF`{j7ec?`C?*`XsDA(7V5J`l%gtB>9nTCRQPnJB2@Uaj^SR|1){!1l_jFO
zR41k8O-W(u`N>|`ML`;H3SzgcUrO>lxr3^LiV}<A@ucH0Ln=fS#ewCjrOM$f(wXYh
z-&OMb7_I?S-_>?gBFqZNzE@i$gI_1Wzn2cuQOTE^3zW`0N@ptWwt78ep>NS2a7YuX
z>{?UBl+)^$&7{!Z1;hJR51LE+lxO?q4+<pRkVwDjhQ}s7WklS>!~2#F!eYt&67JNW
zbwM0NquNv%b5HV+2yaQ^tjzB$8vLxYr|FebvnK4FZaWsAXO)r?meH}Jt=F;`Cx)`j
zRZO0Pum#LvM-)k|3tEyQj3}3qh9N{oz%zv*ki*n<RYE{Sw37bVWs2DD&TD1ReEs0i
z_ucc}<GjtjHOpq9IdK0x%JjY%?P5Kum`dDZeS#PQMjX+_%q1StW*7CD(`FZQ3SVOm
z8Kyr|-e>1>iaN$k5#@Sh!aS;+6|Bfy;|>w0w`F*B(7Gv~<*rn()uWYLF^I4#u`2UQ
z*G2E5MO0yuMTDvmoUm;PSMZ9~rA_fk)`jnaN4(Nq6tt!oQ4H}luE1y?*hO^w`JIL7
zu2@;3DS`7_zH6P<u1Hhn$SzOKuDCUPswz)Yt}eoeYABlZ7Uo1(!I5YPKEj$Vxnc=^
z5VXjR<cKt+yr><lDeTx}rG|=Bjy04DP_KGNi=;g{z6o~OfQWc5Ukpx_NYNJqrWhfM
z#gPl{loa{8JljNQl{ca96b+qN9Lh#$N8n-3)A73KB8jnWXkqDI6g$jLNJm&=Vqt11
z%NEg=gk}r7v!~@p5w|BMGv#rli#kGYT!?y61gp~()8^9_rsisAhFzD7d51cdi@kc_
zlqMI2`7F+10F#UNm7<gwpDrQz)4d94#pevFt+ax0^R%nQ5H%Ph(YVTsz=5)IBVvd}
z4$3Afh)Nh&w^{n~U47+kP{6QV&|;-8D~vLy>aFA;*dj07tUg-``O9ouH>R(uGm5Bv
z`l<|@HA-?(dQ(@LRJ>5iW1;&Wp?LX7UFq2@>{IdCq<jQ1^To<{MqT0A@Fm#-Hl8^n
zxBr8-yMWD`>lQ>EW@?zz(Az-6)G#ws!^}(#Gcz-%;WW&gykTZ$W@b(%{r)-sIY*j1
zb9F~oTC(IN%eE|e%i3Pg+UmlEhkOeK3i)zmigiU|3et)wp?^y7r({^9g%>Hx&@sar
z&|!c1rqa?+<;0R?b@P1@Wx8W#N`hLE>y;By6q*_pOT*#!=YR|KQ=~Tuw@WK~np34@
z!_&H^Gt~)zzhvt7>Ryb#1ouGR(0kQ*ggWRD`QY+^)ahoA@CMD^Sv5KIhRX&HT*`aY
zzv_8JzJj(PUv#NOWb${w7i|&TZir<0HEv3~^w0}>txZaLAwK>2{nM*&QrHVeCig9l
zSj+2+4A3sa8`NL`fobnxiYM&e!Iak`g_hUga!?k}e3vxH{E1T29s7hER@SF>4<!nE
z3xtc1O=F$tApW86X|LT5^od~+yp^E?-f4RkDPtvy0V6Hv3*p>EeB;r<Nc17ru*Th;
zy;!H17j^?sunLDTK>9iB8hr3&i$~Le&OXm8$OCy9Z?XgLT;N5f%n^ECJ-U8g@6@RY
z(K@i+7JfD2#JbzfLLYv2u6k!zxq9w;cv1Q~vO0awsAc?`g(J8vfpeE!!r$Jpm|v}I
zmO5PEF03Q#<Rt#&<``=>_*iz16D?OCi|Qs3^7qp)mr;eivS~$)iu(AUe53KM;S4#s
zP#AST-<<Q-ugH*3mtQB~>_Z`?`Q7EPu;e_#cy|?3Y}zWj77oL)XAe1d;!~mr&du2C
z){<9=v5qtknNsXcsI`rL4wlX;k0}-IKygQz7XXyXmDn}IICmAO2xb!C1`>yr2G9$*
zn1xeMDU^o=3M4`e;_M;!Wq+YlOBAb8+Dpm738E#~MS&H7>^wzr8Cg=u;_P4-L?A^f
zh;Y~^esOV0(wC?%I+R*QM9<%pQDr1bN<5X~iTB`P_ap!O(2$rX$6gsZD>&~b%VMGp
zb&tpVRxUG*gC<KRG2VO5Z6A3iQ|I2ergBEI%(3D)F=)gZKW06nR&P?fhjkFd<o?5`
z(re3PtkLl}&Z5pfPq{&Y)R5X_pK1TbIP)&&C_tPMw|Qz&KOsXzimiX-D$dC?bb)=x
z9dVEa*U&$oKplZ2ea7dDRbPeOPPjv)n;ISE(zBi0P|3vjkmIqt@g5^Vqr-R;?C<cY
zb3cte&C`=JR>GmHo3@fB3T|#2Sp@1)iwGQ@`9T$CC)(+#aoB=Ld1~BL1$EYv&>LlP
zY0Y6u>$+WOih}o=MCzrg*|z@KT=7UeMagSiyh&U0NK9r`^Y}<aYH_*;=(nRIUwi!F
zH{aV!qFWcalL8C>Wg>47&ogT5^V(Zp&nf0!C0=dc4Jhy<?-Q&K_l@_Dp3=}QQVuiI
z@Lz}y;*xr>nuv&1*qHp>-vc1&iT1mc>9O|tP{1~Wm+0Z!<e-^;V;Td0UGgC+31T#L
zK_=28Qf*44!0pjP0t9gq1Yo87sC7vw<Pe1AV9<2ABK*MygR5hp4Ro0!{9<F^Np*kh
z0_m~gWCnwXZP^im_-%0zAfOR^-Y1ct1&9t2+rPpy5`()5Ad3Y{{^tDUUoi>E(L+87
zJDo$i$RC6h14kKya7GM^`kP=82#0A35337>hD}U}fCB9n63B`IK7|4qi^5O`DM}y)
z^ku*r!2ZBU+rnys!P+!=g!Kv_+H`+J>Ik&iwD^In)0J!+W!8y&x}Du)a!Kg{M${vE
zN$de~(c^B5ISy>K#a;Jp+(K`IwCTpX<Y<Gc?54hC%m_%{6#fA^um$-8YNAKp1t}}g
zWYg>im~5Ax3u=~+pe+g#aHopszDwH$;T~wc2+64jZ3+F)co1lH31b<E!iAu*NxX=F
z+zoI6IS+o>)Lw*n075n4o%?ZaA*mvtZ2tSbM_}v1RYfe-C0~VM1K!yZl=)cbv41zH
z_>GAFl5OzeaOxfPHc|b-e$PAbez5rQzey71K-tcMMBxJE!GD;8h$3zlgW|LJ<o(|z
z|9uA!?Dsqa>j#T3`0m*T7Y?VMQSB4epUI9#@yldw^6kn^x^~o}q*}3lue%c&^G^Tq
z+$FxG2{_dyFJqwSazE`3r?Yx6a`X|7CkT;B=+c#Mv|h%+kH{}^dd@HROPNj&;p!z!
z(fuE77lTpSp$b`R9xYEU#y3X}u;5G+SEJ73Sv(fc&rPnn#@V%%8E1)oV+3P*NiLKe
z%cygdG=j$q^^zYvo^Hso&v$3jlr-9K(RXLOx*-*^7f5mA*DHf4;wKJkLpl<UJ860O
z!kIPS?n6%}*G(COge53LVY#85SuqkF2{U4G%fq9lh5Ln^@#w$PR5}SQYfSAcmC~>f
z0|3Nx#?maJY}sKEotM&vuYDOI%i$J|^8Nr5om>qpJW^pH;j^QdlwU_VQF-5RSJFss
zt)z`Lq<;CaSFBtPjg6F3F5^=Eq%NP!_*k*=y4Lgi3iJOyKEnEHt$rMLe^4x8@R*;O
zI)QSpKSw9J-(1f(MD^XUl%K)WvDG!?O|CC5M;YIFR5nNm;YH+&fvc~eh9`%quW&@D
z)HRS!R@hjH{%$9<iefz%U0z!5e>;p@#56W(SHtYUH{D}GE;Z!YH}Wdh2aVXv*)yo^
z9)OE*nfzmb^Mfg2ZhK@Lj^XE+x$QX7d2_7wXqJB-Jd=a17R|m?PYN^>*OsfbA&80@
z(^-n1XiIgJ6DtbgTt!1(d3z;%d#V^wx-Y{8Z{^cYt@6iIt*NsTmbPRo9;f2uO~3`e
z`v*xKRX4ZyBlih?+L9ae`UW>Yxf_25VnDV+dS-RsIw$pr-o%5_bDNiqGB9iBZtVJ*
z3XIT3E6CH-s=R$tQ48&I1%Az|(I#poF_ul=vTKmxh#jLo%Zz6t`%b;*{Ay(_i!XA;
zq_XN|b&k**c;?W03aS%0!d=_V)^k2L{#v1NH}GKaFuPP8p;dANVe2WML$Z0lLVc{6
zstUyO@|UowqTRe{dc*l19jR-e28uV-Uv=yK0)-XS8Oa}Ex)H;h{<M*WMzs8~75uZ5
zt(c>q+1do)gzYFGV7yJnRJkQ7r{U5>C2YNzr}MluRnp(JQJbG)o4Wk))NP<nD6YZw
zu^qUNx9sty9bT(kCh%mD_fr<t4kHQuuej3Rj!^$cuEfZ|{9h%Jk{p9|4?V)_9b6O*
zhnN!+E>zgBtC)u3wev8cRxo{uoV~8jXtE!$95E2lT&uCyi|x+4B!hJKg#$2oq$5p_
ziHO}e-$do+bTdQURccZlK~e|b8iX=9ak-fzV>Zm1gw{9Bu>WA)Aza7P)Z|eT2R|RM
z5x?PfLz?8nz%65bj}jo1<?uMf;m6zt$8YeFOYT^%Z|@^F^)E9MFilXXJS+dY^l^iC
z!j;B5wq5;Js2<zk%yn}u?M!5BB!fA!)hE`l33Jg2%VSuNzfA=MnUyxT`CmPoza7l}
zkI&|BtDVm_VE=RgWBAI#$i(*FY}fxnU48ktx=J9cLq`?35Uvv90M!&m;s3I&jsmKq
z-&6lPJZzh)CERFDt2Nip&k7^X`C}vD=K7kVrgP1EbL44Xs+q~*;NR$qK`numBu}z&
zqr>Hx+w>iDcXwhmbEZxw4=)s{oQ!c}LZ=Rh)$}sSDI`KfQslaoLCNI(WTZ+%A`6g@
zH2!O_RIl&B#du%7<pPZ5`OkOhcKkg<*9ZAsxx;db+bgvh<<}r#8fnv-b;ZZjUyw*V
zu;jCenT!t(aMdy;L*`$@E`w5=CHH&D)ih#xL61CZ?M*OmUySCYa#d`;*63s~xxa(W
z;_+5SVO=@wV~nQ07vqpgyy5o^e1a@yYtm1UWi_r`><CX@o>#a07i4k#3uFm=f-HBf
z1O>qaw(mU$q+CpgZWLnu#24+xctkjy!Wnl7ilSW7TubhB)2sYjyk^Xi`+2<KW-M0u
zoQIIlF`t!_i>%AS$kRROIao(5Zqe_-yj>@msY)YmVO&btgWNk=2s|+OeA1=N&R>-_
z?v>3}u^(Dt)||UIS5r1YWx2zWTrJWs_+IklkFpqELaSB;1IAc39gU)9*4_Q1p@_l`
z{eKM?+A(JV<dF7q-{MO`3Uf^gXAsiFYYj~?w+lC&i3Q?gsEA4+DkWIb_d#w<L22@Z
zAK9QiI*>w}ni<<-Fn2akTe6a-8C!g<XFIVZ#}Gr*sCp!Q(hrT>QZ-DQ4ZkNELzd?&
zyI5G5(v-KFnrek4PP#4oJa|yQZTWc^)K6MHI&)feyDUm+9Llu7?`&JQd=qF@K5m?8
zuR}8s>9z7TE;1y!S91%@%6Yq`;HG?GBx)~o3wSAzyWhgU?Lsu&3ai2`eb>N0E>E9y
znrc8@n<k&6LmsIXd&m=O2BTD_JmwBju#PwkU73XHD^<@I&@g-{t=nq1XP|i);MU`I
zXheX;ENMsSjCb0E|K4XaRqD3}U9l)L)N}U`G<_bo#XJ3W3$orP7+0;72Hi!JyY|@d
zFiBd6_3_8$hoU|2S-cG`pOKPG^wf?^yzI2%FTP_sOlO`q19ct3X)bB+ToZbMtRnvu
zGwp8Pc`oQRcy)KNW2Hy(XQpnFM7VZ=O8p?W%&1AcTg>)|$@J?7y@04`&RZ3?iDJZi
zR?o<d#9y;d8OL(oWw71?yc>dOX8PU0p?H7{HZLtFwZm<3MC_3nX%I4A8i(O!jxV@E
zTs-Q_x7!nUt?c#oiZfT~=+airsb<Ai)~oWja&=ZSTQ#Y*WtKb(Ay;lBV`G1gf=B4x
zM=&dUFeki^9R5t<#cX(C>lBi2oBrl}cg&zVQBwP*S&X2R@T3ZW;sn^=2_g}d$ahDp
zL&@6@kneG)4+QizGfZ7<fR|bi-}pG>_*H9C@cJ(y;etpy67ji)I>5oJ0tl$@R8-<a
z;v%j_EP3&-;*e9BobqbFq$ksKeVyLfjYL{Ig2;?p6SR#~lg+~ipvoQ-R)>7+ZbuV#
z7n_>Cm*kPD{RGCNUk=xJC<<qqwO5wSbj2Y;>r>Db8I%vb4>j*Ff&ZjsOjM;LC$|7g
zc0{Oq_y)a9_tplRripU6D=P#0>o%`yHug6(Ht08={tN1-R5{m=A+$M`X7!!W=%-W&
z3~2;MwCz;1;~?BzPdmF@+7o0lIYKbs?OQ2~dwFe3cJg0GDH!w)LZkdqW<S(>(H*2H
z+@pA9+WsWqzj@2c$Me}`RXTjT?RX`M{s?)1EMsMNeG(Sf$4q#Pk5}%D97Z4`^C#Oq
zZYWG}JoCG4W;g9snnFBE^`(7h_l0^FN(6z+c7ax8Vl=|cq?!Cm3DP5W0QXB=9P{qF
zAYqrR6fUgh^(a+#M)`ceXw9=aT1$A1QgW7bk^+{lKw3h4f47@&Bx7+1J3Fvrbg_v~
z0JDW|BwH<peEqM-dN<&rmEn=!7g!-taL}K!|Ld`4K0Q|NieEPyNat&)C(0N91#<uG
zNWlG-5pH$w&?S1NK$ZF4SKYpEh^X>OgK5kZthCfJZ<_fM)h#kI9$%@-%CIQ}92F*-
zb?21K<$vFIB>3%C!TqG3ox+$c$n4B2JcNJK-3>vlbU+bRyLz<$%_JY86xz7hi<QHy
zQ`ia2-W$M{5F0_aLi42AurUwfW#Q&j?6BgN5K)FNdCa0h|C~E>07`XZ<4-aq>69WM
zCv3^t$_d@-M%^b0Jt;Ct2yJ<3eSNxw{5_S$>hG}dP_{sjy$>>K{SMmfr4wPpCw>mv
z_@graJMnKr83`GAI{6^)%Ux7&5#wxCwT0MJwtiZS=s%(*BFDwO<C%Xw)>CBtkr8bF
za>VKAKOT!9QO)|(W69|MRI}(c;yELgh*4KG4OD>eAo(hR8_Jg;MfAe_{ZJprLNXBH
zfQVk~I9Js~?j2O|NMF@Nz=T@MZ#I;uEgv9!s4vw>*)g<zw;H3Y6c<na>9GP-LO(=+
zmk$L#M;98#DOu{irr!MeIfcCPhcB?6yaf+1?O5PFriM8Vy%|bzI|E#Spo!wuLAYT_
z6w}T?M^U5xH}ZSKpZGz`E?+sB<nl=Oy}o(DOe3NX`nu`n{NPoY^%pS-Yg>QpdQ!t~
z(EJ*QfHcbo%km3WjDc_eOV5|o>nrO^Fr#;U2(Ugi-?FIf->HhVyS7oVlV82*+MJXN
zXGFM)C4Y)@d$T=RZ7YUE>5vK`&PFmaCIT?|xxPy}#x-J^XI+RYc|{?&TPb=$1+{$k
zrZh+_1X0XgE94{L_$eA^nuMWK>+~z9AA<tr1G3UJ@R2Oj#pY+ypEiW@DcH-?6h7(M
zVrf;CV}wHjAw*2at`C;tKVr|h6o5C7$XmLuQ4%T|$!ii0IZiKIT7Y+ACxH1qD}!BP
z^b3n4PH@6JwYoO^n{{6_$0pBiClBpuk;AwD;;~A}{(7uxhoWLJE2|P(%FsWa?+AZ7
zbIpVE<(?I)%)b(QSnsKbTyVJWk5=G*3jn+pRTwRlz~R_*t<aEv6m+AVbP(&B%xH6_
z+E0X|g>dp~SS9O2mhIGGiA~x2i15(EHVL0RsK1z2Du(w9cUSPa`o#0`%oMg4o+0^K
zLc7w~lE*+rfF$v6fSFp@2((1*vaq!vubjmYRRP3S_4mwpg40&e%qkDK6V|r4F2MvT
zKb#o^x^B4lR?08G1BbvTAXElXP|xs+r%+5$;k-kWKRp)4S+mk2`RwqDUqyJpT2f1H
z8Ro$z<Z=0w)NnS%zQSLRh4JaJ>Z2w{Z@Or66h1vxN(-!NpO{8O%U_QLQ3w6$v1TO%
zJNB4&@W1<d!CF;0%lX;)NkpPq0}K@h`S~<-ndwne;NOh+&^VJM#yW(Ib)5b0aEGBr
zqsiw}bj-cr963b_2$6?7xdW_#s6+6++)9tFkMUr`ly%zuwIHnsuVhUEVF{$BRemo_
zmy#42!eiy%*^0^fcSM$9SM&CM>i*t80RGAUA*<5@K%K{%?NRr2#tbb<DEmUb$AC-Z
zi+M05?$ScBxMqgek!=~d1yn_HH&JXj$oBc|Q^$S}rHeb6X<uH;yrrN!Uf?p}6c)`P
za&=F->1?t74UF^?Vr2<`QN;o+uT1KI%8Et*c^~%Y$4kDSV)l0X8O1t>kcy~4!=0vO
zZENexDcJ+tj+VMn+sU|J8GI_@qmL^efFAOB#K&r$U)`uNr@o)<oFUTVACJY%2VL9z
z>9N$zt$$9letN7jb8Ol@&vPV7_iaz5fe?pZp6FaQgU$ncyD613tdI|EgK9tV3#fHh
z`<oN-o$je~%B=d$@;7Ad_KEohO-dr)$orPy=@1W3e%Mg;KR_o#%{nmImL`?@>H#^%
z*n)eO`O7oFe>sws^`*o+DU>=)X4NpaDct9~{-l*|NYX7kFEG4;Pt!w6wvTc3fx@Lz
zuyCMWpITt<87$H?D171RW{L<+ndtv|mW)ctNOX<e$>&rcw8L~A&b3cvZssYQIhtP8
zUtXBB&yrvo)$P%MviSYy*)T<J*v@{6gJUs~T0BTe=_0ID=;RqlAuetAitmfhnt~3<
zu4=jb`ott6NTJvp?Ixg<rrY1w>^GxzojI{4R+H56Js5I&Bk6}0khbIn_i;8LQm+Go
z%eRgWEE~8VGcVdFwkfeAy-0ikW<!-j(*rTtkQgI5mR_J~_?rGRO{J!Ny8?|hB+>WI
zk^D}9Rp?T=x{%VH*rif6J+U1nAbm3`!3l_IK6b+W{6nyO%bGM5`lR6w#uBX_$)Fu!
z9CcceXrkBcn7Cz3JTFv6{gO=^txw%FE72l?w=PM~dhX<B$=eT%KaTKLoLf<GCsW^k
z;Z$<Y<ECM&OC}ZH_27z@*mJ|Aw-VeYq%34gsgurQg`zI1gTX$^wCZtLcP}qs91#LP
z$zo3mco2z94)1;*`7T52lyPmkJD4imY~s!Ej;Rju?#~Fv_@K}E1cEFyV>!-NLK=bh
z?`<DfKNV|Er+%gPNAi&tK}R~d&6w7;X5G+RIk8R|f;wb+Bu^cFyQ*+cL9#;p&GHY(
z+I_(ndD(r*$g76AD5g=<YcQxNf|+p1R3OmPF*9|imtJ%uc0XaN;WF`gNLV|p|8x4|
zh3zgYFmt#8Yq`W0<fhyBt|D_^?1qUx8q>v#4~GWWS<sRNh=JuJl&*51oWO(R!Me{3
zf8_-_^#GF$b~syPm&Fm8m$yB!6f^1Fi{on{ENmGf>lcWv3D#gOr&z~L^*VFP3&30&
zgYfAj>!h#g>7}DF^qi{+s=*DMpe@g7O-1W)>F&!1nJ|vVC#9l^?q%S*<BO|n!CH2J
z2h3|6kS_&zP2qQ*sP%O>pdP-eJ%}X(&o<wF>+~*i1i8M&^fOdLHK$hH;D$Srcp!>C
zdFr9%FXLdl<5ZO}Ruz`8*k-9Nlzn4Z2Wcf{xlU2qNR@~`^;I2MKB_;K$nn?o{uykE
zR6WjIU|KzY)Z83;hg4tVKWT8@uexfiL%uL6bYN3A_9?Ogax>-simZXf^^lfNkrm*!
z{Ex`$f3emd6IfxU|4D>Gf5DnN)_U|;WT`_+B|KvFJ0WF443`bnp<8s3MeHEyOMy>>
zT%DB_a{gZVdi(t<Y95T>Q)G$Wh^vF(8=A2NjxC`76<G$1qtX9}ELDttuK){@)uoJR
z7Kkb;U0Ja8jyiJu$v0!=$?)Gc)_`)bq%`=+LdXQGihKs302AnqIoPcr1&CC$97lp9
zT@|(}*!LQ6=Cux_dp<~M@CqiRDYp}I^$T5T`zlt~4@BLy%X|6h+Gs)ypAWUuRoS<U
zc4mY#^4&8NUJ?J_7a%;C3X3wSo3h}7DC0gEp&f@X>ub+nEbe4HIwyL(S3`es>J{}(
zZ5Ef(t0?JueIOXTGPbO)OT~|prX<VC5ynJaO%1yt*FdisCiWPg_&()8_d5~bLYzYH
zgDQd$$$>~gU;D<QiXWy&&d#<#-fVh|2D_I;DhIf61@d4^Y0<MPl$)559mhjiLcsZO
z<zUeZ&%1u>pOA@A$!9O}I-_m&(wb1=^&s+((9siwpqN_~eH%ljT=zgR*d@gcc5F_6
zg1sf`l6eZ6CY~9~W1e?OviBMN08}>nyW#TAB<_nH8zA*J;R_&+f)2*ZXpLpf4&#T{
z1pPjhlvdd<RKKHKN`=s+am2N7g^U4h6X_u@oa8&8+~nD$o1JftRRAhhHNd-D%gx&2
zLae!5Sh(n5s4h^OQpAA&f&iFjL2lx8w<=ua`7-Epaq1|3Tlrne?Ojmf^3c35zUYmC
zPJW802OYvPqv+G@f*x6mH-+Niu;R<<yFhk4nYYd%LYFkvW7b;q&7)Dk+#~@=_}HrH
z{2_@gN_uaa28QT6;@ISholjf0VUORjZTIlwvOZ}b5Xr(^P<KK2fs0iKq>b%r_(|T1
zj$~J-Wdg(q2nzX_KukCtiL9a1qHeN=%)$c_1;ag`%&H$*a&5M{17uT1ZP7Z=tx7m0
zYD4RWqJf4fS-?{iD{IF&e92OFCp~un^3xz&tZg0pM4k2MKcHWtRKYhPH(|I{JIjMF
z;x}}nK-a;=2i}Lm^IgFHKonf8*b^X5Bsj{#ypHQ%3s*X<3tA)F^o?|Y-dFO)lk;Ab
z>MlZK4ZhUq@w~R}#PbqzxS?*DyVgCEDbN^O140GFe<2iY#6<=Z9c17QBGhvSY-8%L
zYlg5Kcn;N8-$${8n}O^@;W^E!-Y}UP7wJ~GfEiUnBgx@fj!J;GPCEAJwNv=q6<`{c
z$1n#X6YDlr;2|Z*3j$XKM_A5LePnAGrHX8sjuFJXkDSy)FRD<Vq4+$HYyy2u;CLk;
zW$n448mKqI2LmTC@xx5Alws}_i#^2ocpE{7bwHO;ngoH%)(FZ^%B{-nftBQjmy}x3
zP}^#`L_&Cvsj*dv=DK+OeDZ0{qWQu)Z6!I+QippE$ndH~NAv@=oltMIrBbuXdk;}X
zJnL5iLH^IKQ7si9O$D*K9-q||9l6$Ex76hDDcWVQU@WG^KGoo6PGVYYu;q=+5#qR{
zC8539C9%Em*m)q&yxjPQFQR1!^fGC`ks)wniKo7UL8We?OrX5^IE{1w8&y=EX<=st
zo*_6lqnpuBR>|%J8M4Q1x3|*UqZm3TJQqs*>vJJ?SP{J>@fMFS#oJlv*_`<B_myR_
zc0cf4T|2Sgi`Qf?;NdqEPoDtCo|=yWxte8f!t&9R>%~EJ3#1;Iz7#i<IiMXHqYszS
zZbR%Z9xnrWFVDZ<?wy#k4_p(7FzSU9X|~(CgWuDyv$y=cE9cQ3(CQp8UoE%75rsR}
zrx%8Q>F{wHZ?S9j)(Uy<@$l@U&$?p2UaYqf3RlqSd-6RIEe@Tl%tM6Lcl6>`r2<xF
zrWz>^*&eT4&fASCUAInldj`ycT)BQWh-OGrSi*Bg7ejG56!hEYv~mSc9w2+H=S<0n
z)s;fiCr_aIXgzannSX_*Kz|49WYh+P++VTtFXD7<hcNm1ehfYN{D6kxg-7ABJVe-p
zG{;_k!18>Gb7y<aSH0qTqTSza&feA{Gmu_^c0YtYER@%1|1i;rK5AdB(6^a?8;{Sw
zhw5ARUCLfok2XNUf%7h<GZN>1Wgb1U-$1@sC|hMhGpI*#vi(xvD(p=Va5f8O7CnXi
z7+|osyqcK=X3^v8$c=2q2)X-yBln=#eDExK+;_q?+yTa86!l%@tS?vd0n&)+YkM7{
zpUpNqWEHqf7}x&ExyOxTSaqub(xHsS?&2xZ$_t%oQB^^3?)dV4$SNHMt50*(c}=IX
zdqx%~#Xv3W#CT5&t%uT-c7*conE{~b12g8OnD+Ttaq-JdekGG^K8sg?_X6R~z|RPV
z$Moriie+~#n%DK4GaAv;)Q25U2kXv$^qh_=i^=;W+$Fu2p_yv0${F`bFtzSR<A4Q0
zfjj=Wj_Rm|mmYFH=I6QcWum02U6;km2j7R*3z)<9rFS4>yGrZwGQY^<df9699{19H
zh@yKH*>rA%iXrZoU>+tJ#UT9ffnx6M^SYa<4rE`$-A|B}L*$;mAx~6F*>7fp8_7UK
zesAgnHU9;d>`l_n_)eu{!iSr6q9Yrw9F?kOT9=o$2<MXXBz;Y{HpA9mpJ-wx(z?+`
z6#tab1Z}LF4WnSfjd7Q79WJ0RRVKA&V)NS{rj!-kjdlK+&uPfI2WhHE+{g?1bcwB=
z)4Mj|f^`y)=qjwM4BzSf6*1>5hkG<9z<`NS@r+ml!4<-Gjc|quvt=XKGWi3(x4q8K
zdkV{QeO%)V7{b2V{jVE)j2Ge$UUdeHS%TMU#g$zCt%B$5k@c)Oh|5`#T*&cGg&~{*
z<qXhupFGi~++yn_jA<znMnzwSA}Dhb%cwH>z|bnT2s4X8J-_Fn3hTn9@|Dp3knEz`
zd=!q;0KG|ggr-;$ItOu*=&P>Sp;YXHe)6Of@Y|2&75>xOtEaEF@jRqtIRumHr_BuA
z<1iQ`E9DdK-Q#c1V2vu7FXD1@so6qkIVE023l_~W6ZhQ{54)*^*(cKEqS-q`4LK2}
zsUi>Urw^f*blRT``}AAvzI#0#&43&3ezetO?HZ39>8mEqbe2xV7q7zp1Jh*NEC))H
zACFEKWgKkr?q2QXt)=_C&6prE-#r{1_fyPu5O4ce7j(v|QIA4a_-V@Xs)#G%yfV{@
z=y`RcUgS@G!yTA!s2_-L*nSJXnvc3Z)u{=Ld!9=&>I5xE|Ehu-_B<nG#=XhlMKFJF
zO=Jc4@|Y<l>s@`1bRU)a<(*j5%N_7k*_i^)P+3=xrH6<u-FW5k?V$SCtlFrZH)K}d
z>lH#|?8%^U8U^|Csf$_MqQ7u@tscBlIJcra>;83vzIFUt{*8;Vfz~tLo=bYJte4OS
zVeStT%I6l$^(C+T%rKt!EDlhI$#sK!`iGP|+Wmx<a}!mIn^QN68yIPSt*WtcKbk4z
zBa<1^Eray#>}G=ZDavE22Ww$o8oo{<Un|o4B4+~`OHo8Fn;b-8J&QZ*ge%N>6<@C^
z{=%*F?>R~b$`W@{K{_{d*RIDoydrYBbCCBTs)Cn<V?;5?c22lt!?rDxaAm)PE*bQK
z<1d-UYK!S!Qd=p{P+z6?ERtrvZrMoaD88gl51^a4yU*cduE}TL95L~P_FYOsHYh;b
zjei?|{F8ZsSVX9BT-!1Ev>se_G*Ilo;{Y?qnhj0l(}XcQP6d2SgZL26zzcKW_awyr
zEUbwENatT!_Ah$%dk%UbU2rXX4mw1?1it+^1s+_TMMI>4a#nTB1zKKo1Uzi4{7Yo1
z|A)vD1_lF(|5IcQ{1sWb{}x${Wk)9T|A?%*#%JI^BJ1V9iL7q6CmyQ?OnIv1e~GMN
z-@bo~EHsZ%?th6akn}IwL3bT2e?`{BUy-#RW14+vQwsh3kI33!<4Jy#aWTn6VUyHP
z<WX5e;DQ<TF9)p8Ec}@;;<^1tWVt2$6<LasJ1CJgEi=XD|5Ic|!uk9cku~^VMb;I8
zR_Uk6YF(&;_WTrCnz#QUvK;ge$3I0@Dfp+zg8wZ^7Nh--$U?Zr|0}Y1gyweyj!@|o
zqHm5?__F*z8VIo{KSdT2twN{L;LVo8iQR86YsA0%(OWSGg7t2nA`A9EL>Bjd7g@jl
zEwZrwimcsFk!A5$WVzk4fwEVIJt=zF=;McTq7gM!fOXjLWe^1W7w5|5Jg=uwX>1ET
zXOjS*8_aDa&)+<Adi0)19|TE9d=anmeQx*W+6TyzE}Ksl4g7)w6WrlQ#vshMfQ9uJ
zc`b~Ymv4Qk-19_V<uk@sF63KG$UV&L*0qtn;?sEDYZFXPCFu{s9e?3Xw|_r>kkhiG
zrL#nE|MGP_y6XM-#l>I1o}hoCWz&*!W|yGe?owFe2Lumj!%eW*xATg`7P^&!F4V8c
zZ5WqukIz-M3^8hNqg&gqT#&mD=uLF)aDL=`gg<_rQ*WNITM{5=)nvodLMKVQ>)Y1v
zKY(kThHX+FoNe0cmc(PMI%HkG0Wm!vc5=<Qp|?y35VEeVVLy*{qr+-B)|)}fV&sMS
z+)ZmfK-@sKWUzAnQ8kNm?3R)3Kf+z_H$wJ7>{2@bOKTehwE=d&T<%v?M(3ZN*<URB
zwkdr-zDXDWO;vn@@=bbQW50wzbK4UB95#>+em$p~f|{mDWsSetMcoEG?a*q|txXmx
z*>wYn_DTkYgMbIKjXyx}LDY+A>4SgS{OOSvj$U9S7FVJ2qR0~L9mEm|-UbdH-Z1b=
zQX=|dhQ77A)E9$~usgp8jGZrHiRLkBe*=8P=N_n(bI9eq|3}cXDEw9{We=Bn0<8kN
z7o<<m+2k4Ap^pH!gYM?T_hZ-V!uuE2<IzSi&joJTm!agqr@hYLrR2ErnS+Pl<BO|Y
zk$w(6))96jk1V@}o+cLl>(qmj?qpc)$oR|9C>>2H79S?lZ%gXXLWhFRUGJio-(Nj7
zhcmn>Z!QZ)4U%h|gvJjxdq{c?MuQRkn&<Wf1D4)((*?6)16R<txJI*JmXPZcv_L*K
z-GZ1j*RjHroZ;cOF78FOM&`I#UqIU*cq8>Q)s<AT>XW9lZDa=vk8LRboRf6hs6*(y
z5G*3EnE5s(L!CN!{dNM|Cd_CeGLaQn=P(Q$r;8asQ9j`F7&jm&`fdjx&$*aoDRZi%
zea#?=4hlLSfE~?i-X1S#g8sHrEAc6^B30Z0lPp;yM;xs<S_kEl|A?&VPmyKil3A09
zTl`mK5mEjlvN*R!h?G7>R`y?!MY9c^JF%}%=uLE0L_A>7j^ZSz7?#9S#K&GAjEHXK
z37-Cx)64oo&w>&2FtIN1BMLW^8`V9b1M8kl8r9Q?AdmV{3iSObWpX{Pr4f_-Ugs2H
z8O#!KO%%NB&QPTl&m(3zyw!F)D%Dapb-5Okr^<wR?}u}qmUpg_tfcv_xFELz#aIWV
zBj(F9fqdiIHKDc!y9u)o7k|OHyeC~%bIS*GoiI1<iZk&zkgEavX3bOSt5s{2d#=;x
z`ZxJ<4!0jtb{ohPjv_I#e5=$64~Sa3V*tVN)PhgWg;o7cvp)O#JFQ>>UCsrCx;?TB
z!CBlUXGr(>tL8d;SvO9;jgLvW+*vi=iRZ`;bFUh_;S|@2XIikGrAt~alEqf%w>-o?
zr2uEk5ce+m{Bvk{Gak5*PDNbAe?%7RKO&3hQ)EH^BeLNB5m~8qNuMIiOE>mQWK-?F
z$K&qC6wJFj`Qo8f9|2SK#lf$y*=*1|?lEnjbxvMMCZ5&XoDs{?Yp2@QliD(NPVAAj
zjWNisp1BBi9|$OKcLlZn9q9j4WSK-Wuh)uB|EI{J`xIGLe??Zpr^u3M&)`zm{S;Zn
zGsdm(pCW4$Z>$iZ70^-t{wcEjAIQ%K%z<p2#dfOt(XITz_mrA8UirEQMf1&e_>EnJ
zSqz65#dvjhLO(94y!N+C?lu{_ZLeBSpES|P<P9&I*q?lL6R9HQ8RyqtMrAh?h75gf
z=G*DGGLgNRIwu4VF>H_q&xFJGWcptGZVdh0(58hqCT#}@e}XUC&?g9dSVQkR6Wc~S
zAnUKQ3I&R2F<im0!^LdYz}u+arjf6-S^qfWOJRAJ0z71Pl-s<kH-7FHid^IloEg*&
zafwhv07r-qVBRi3-*>;V1X1DLn8K|^ni2$6RV`M+mV-|Wy&&ObFz>+IiDu4(F+X;N
z@nwU2>&w1SroJEvd4-)b@u5<DUU$5Edj;jNj_LP=tBHy?e0B%53-3(apR)zk$&V6h
zDtFF-+hSEq(PF{7AJT)&Z}#E#_3B^HSVB-mi1^BZ2Qj|MJsG&yC+CV@Q`)Weps94Z
zL4G=eS{yNVNa%|n`GkvYl^9QATPq+;xohe8P`K^B3H|1b3ifh$1LxQj9t0yh?Z|`3
zj&?0N*o<rRY(p<&@k`zc#k1g^=a<J1dN8WW;MZgUqdx+D){tuF{%{!C{77??M^rX`
z?|FY-F}x?e<G(~n1Aj&`;5L$8*hjMCnlLw2RxCXF_kWKpfWt7spvs<IESJy!{X#xV
z6d})t7kQ6sMQZEl7?4c&qUY1khgi#DxPf`xnGGvi(jR!cAmlU9E5ibys#KT=AEg`k
zgTrb}I$Yu*^BYXZxsM2gYNH}5%nVFF8q}-%3#2(<{9&S*H)rB*7yohNE$<pP>B6V^
z`U+P%g7_<S%6Aic_;`H)8&h-WP^6T#ZcW6H0$_njt=o_xURVl~Q4MIw6W=VgPoFww
zh#8+MWlWzsZipLS@~N?;^b`j3eTEDHPg2(@yNpA6jG;q90JM|{6UHcU*7)y$RH=SO
zoE}5wczG$tPm2{dP8K-?1L#RbFknm&r-~<*f?~qyHT)V6Dy5J@#w4yEH<-^G4*_^f
zxizvUi06@VV>;^FRR?gVYWCzq$Csx5GO@>qx0b3foK6(S0;td*jpn1pM@ezen@!{s
z#5YJS(}$W&r-f#VQv>XzJfzea&AN8&0b{AXjAs4$l<@#5Tqd*LeByX0sbi*+fn7!b
zgVZr&Nl!j&yt<S*W2mu$zc@M?9U3xPaOhaCzCI&EN(>-qglsTBP8>46R%)F7DRQV%
z>V0e%3&6|t6gm_w<)v$%Hbe>7V0wxg5(j)s@fg{~1L!cZkMB|gbQqufh7P2746Z5T
zWm7yxcS!*s`q#3658Z3x_)exLpP?72b%Sf#cmt{T{@qHcb-ioW_&lj~{cAvcC%vox
z&=)`@lWXLV9-xxZHE?L;lW09L#V4n<4eox8$4cRv*kuPyFuDc}Wv6hB?SjM?rEm@H
z!UCe1TqDHU;~4><fM~|02}7dzb}2%=n&6=xDJLe^kRg95LS1{_cwWZlXmQF<spZ7j
zoIHdCc%W}iA94b$q^$NCQpa<qTI$uL4iQMPGBjrnSxLPEcYl5oElb^+EOFR)N2&S$
zU|EZ&4F4ZupF!_sK==RGs2$M#S6B?_{y&76n-q%b*dEPuL%^8kdM<IVJw{7Gn=oC7
zK1PdLX!@|mtY4FSptYQSDyn2+Q^)J|JBs8movfc~SuY7W=AR}=DrTKfR|)pU*K47W
z&%eGu^^+tR6+>|(r08t2z!;=MOC-=K8H7W-ulI*gJ`Yw4^&r1a7*r+^4HcJ=QhEXu
zPr8uzQ^uAHC84HDL@4V=pynlF7YGHRk|v6&kVuDqkw8$<PeBz-6jRn0b3N4!>5@R8
ziY5SKkP8Lft1dyI+^ZHOj!P6%Ad&C8Q+Yy7I4rupQ{Ltve=bgFPdqHB(J2*@C9jar
z4MtTd?QWsAOQb4DM^&MkQpT7U4y9J=7?=2^kei1}kYHLV#7VyVCwGP7OXaX-`KQSG
z`RDMj$kLG{SEsORMjiVrveaB_w@{=LO%>KHA%y;ov5Y*)k16d^!@}irD-`DCa~n|W
zl{BTva}$eyZ|5dlQf*P%q(N;Zut^73B~~R&D-jFA#&z2!!VHs%6u>D{*!>J;qB>{8
zcvcSmG+E)Oyvb}hkXMSX@dzPA%7@V8GSqeweV&y98<chmp=ea+8sr`F!<C6YDtc8U
zJWAp`ehXxmPMT2NmY`-+Tvdm?h=qDn?(rr*2BQ*DT{$Q2f@8Spggy-8eGt7EgApk^
zUR*hxXO8ludQKPuPRLSYJY~fIC}6|^F-EG0*l{58WHG`Jpz>48R28#f^W~1wU^sjv
zO}gQ8w6yibm5wDH1qw7j%jd$#Tss{m5X0*|wX`?f-`a2<*EiS?vfK|cKHjoFo;Ez<
zAY)YW#-CzTn(+4`d3UZEle6tzL!Dh?N8sD8Txof?t_^5;x3#<m_t@7Tzb6yfx(1DW
zq1`y(?i{d?bzmReqx3o#r<J|zA85wkwvQPx&=hf<0B^geNPg42w_Cz<oaM`vA3z<1
zN#@pca#-ry`$CKCfU|!sH|y&nO|<Lm>NE28y6UNUzGsh|d}05Dl-%09+P5d;Rm=IP
zWqojM<#o<V+i1Tuw1?@{)#!3&OuMmL<DcCcy0Irh%XaCo;Lsd3Qm@(I&>Zy8mbTE*
zwRfUfv3<=#t0Hoi8AF|WzZYYrNgKVa!biJfZ#GNlYZ<xxCE|!&-W}EuK6&i*TKcsm
zyxB5hxs@32aSzK*ZDLP=R!|eF8R1gn;bvsPP7SZ#ng985Z2mF}%T{e{&x7{B?r3kJ
ze7hzt+7hy}Em)H6VyVxFJz0kKz+SE2h%);ZG|>{fX40iN-F~BXZ>K47GNeb-%@daJ
zqt<eBot@d<G-`by@l7u4J>r-=p2J16{K{TTVX+mQA=1V4ppnyTP@50y<??r0CRYQ`
z*#<~PQu7zwd|LBX2u5!66}VK)`dLBq=78o|+ma~ts?M2`wx1X*bbd<qB_V0476}fN
z;b|rU5_$W9F>%GN4EZV9)Y}T!EGB|*E)%cCsnXx+%#AIWk|mKkJ>WiqENO|oYQNK_
zz8d3b`e{x#=L?UGN|b0SJaWfBamPQ7fxXgt(T2Wq5G6y<YSR+Zo)?#ZZ-=EN31rC6
zFoyVtXNE_HCx!>==<Z{sxa7r3a$$jEabJ||aM!oV_Xv*(_X!WV_g`hfty9>4X_BKQ
z<I>YSH;KS&eKqK}{t!>-1o;L$Fns}E<^j+4+whm2eCNDm821c#4&H3s1h>UM>jb^n
zS#>Y|z{Ll@@YCt5y!{Y;rTXaf_XhufTjyU{nbh%X1f~~vf_f6Xg1zFuhHrU%SOj@|
zluoK3l)i}~el9QQn=JocLcHq@+XkZzd^(uAN9%!nC(3&zP4Eu6b_lw8oxpW_<E1aV
z<~2|~;`OuWjDGP%=0fa73%2us<ATkati0i^xOgC%Mt(#-hJK6omA3^si}ri_(TIF-
zpGyNL0wk=`Xzc2gY@GTCv5x=HTQmNsvJU?szWnL}vWk2T{%~CQc;V}X<pI60ir6mc
z-0>lkaKZQFbZM1f)6;I<*Y32f-I#Nxv1xoMT?M`hVcqM<w&}HCaq#?E{P0paS8;2z
zuzu1h;@<fI$1v6@{ryHqX5=+lxIu)LU>&!atcJbD$i+dZG4+_$osG@9!{z33e}OHS
zM&hh+uz#?x2agnw<b)Ipu`(JTy@HH7fVx{b7CtzbB#d}vax>;}2!((!*HMt!CIrrK
zkQp5t_0B)`eGq8t9dJ8wva#G*q$A&4^l|3pd#iYM*t^yKw%+Sz>Y~`$rPN6~jitu9
ziltV&?KkL(t!uM1JoslTF&4vUEjDZGTuf!@TFhjrIo8OCAhw`~Al6|RQ#1*IF6uj#
z2DX~d`_0HQY3$a$n1-5UzGD;lv?ePXBi5O;QDiK8Ph{+pQ7s8#Pb~@4$T2Asy=$DV
z1PoaS;B%5578~|z+RSym>cQ$FSR3-{{EF~C3^Q-w;tOM>HAnlB^vh~;Q>8<=$U-<R
z@#*kr1sjLXulMOEjiPQ`C*%EDwBVsHwjoZeY@&+p?fEQ@nm6GE&8+MS(<hNm=5;S;
z-3XnTs5dM7$YZ&0lr!OgF4KIGod9_lys0(pi)gGxJrZq%frI3EJVY;lAQBqX)ECyA
zz%_>A>;-L`*(XPVe36ARwC<L)qdUE|gf=&lX^?_|w6D2ok$%f>cd85S1k6$TyhLU;
z@PW9ZbNTgl(QfN;+_!(Y&8$wbt<~B@UFQf<)!GcVU<wv!aesH;-g7tfC-t>?_1&Kt
zrd8TSS6XdlwR(i(K3ED9kHVo*plpQrOKG61bI>!Rz#-E1=^X)e#h#;a3H0kxEDS%O
zq2x_Ig7P_F-<FUspww7>CN>RsbPuzi1wWdDKfJe?1U7TwExrX<<!dzIYeLaNYIKq7
z!Y?AQ`i6IjRDo(j%=^Q4p<qLR>k_EKKLc@XK~)jQp$~kutKiBYsQHi&p|o__4<Qcx
zjC3gvK@NP#bs1D4F#RBPc|v@gCZW{%;ZvZ~x-=&t_I*U?@tA$obOFWCOnd|>NQJ)Y
zC{QdpxKfbHIjBlL_Hs}X{IC>I!Z|4DJ{~d9_WVdGU^V<OhQ3lUpnhKo@_m(Jz~cB(
zVL*7rAb4Ux+JNAzK*$Ur=qV7Y3<x#~goyY`i0wmo=!0qMgInx_+6yXt1`$Pq0s<NE
zOR;Xsjvh+Jj}8cX$^Hobh~NR|h0Fum2~Ol64gA+&lToz+eO`Fs{{XD)Vz{Jz#CSx$
zyx80TcKSI3S2mM3X)XaS;B81=pk7GtkZn-fkd;1pn<kq^mx`CDE??R}vOfD~^Fr~0
z@j^`ansgxpnKoe_c^(N}aPgsJeZO^~ZQ9ww;6wZ~d~m_t`+Mrrh4_7`f<A?61(I&+
z(IXIoA^SlC-!^${>6)NDK1YjH#B(rbKThD;=E^3kE%hR-HRuKyo4<`8!6v|#v<Xxb
zxdME_?`#v-mgN!Zk)sLD15p#U;_F(y2IV|&-*b`b2l`32{+nW%ci5e5_51%O`3Az^
zLjon&3lfIS_XV6nA4C`-Cj=Dz|1$X>7q6GCzNeh$>02&ReL=U#)<07$^9=i&G~n#o
zxKl%C`rO*lXh>|s;1Hqc7<c;1DCK7`$2J=d?eu~qJH^1Ycz3o}$Z!kak*z9!1^v;M
zCda{TsRR=QPADrq?5n@$G_~rJ{NTy*=L}|##lR-AJ%;ms-cHi>+%D~9pVOw@;Q0{J
z!PR<;Q*>i!B5$9pHh@N3uEcUUVHf}Rj}&bMRaH3}bgY6RvH^Gn4S8|1dR5gJijan(
zBy-=nlE>?zKK+{%g~d1prcQd=DT6wk1Umu05yk?lvDpT)a;kwMRAmVUnet(Z%%s&O
zH<4>PCFAV1t=i%_%<P_XrqX`x=y2XEJIz<D8I01-MPe%Ii4t)Po2fsLfeP$thxR7Q
z0G3fUb!oWFIYXynWz1Thyz`7|>ND6=LRcrx&IMJp(|dYiI5>Df9111rL?E|UawzMQ
zw1^Y^=H~Pc%H$S3)ouV2*FF9CO3x3Q#*-Sg1Iu~#bjNYy%v!aBQ~y)C901aVXlg!I
zlnnk#c-AEH1FjK^*z=Kgd;Y-vaSB{v)fVlVUS`e>1n<y<N`VBgmMJA}LCY6q&JuQQ
zQtov7w3Vx<U1&&A!8V_Lx#EoEt76Nmu!Q{GTYU$4aXr-UHYO9_<@1Hv1th{!x#>@i
za{Zo1(pu+PA};KWjXBJoH=`=RM2lHVA2V=pb_}v=`fBq;3mcP~4hqM(I`;z665)%A
zW_(MiHA-tw-*dKWa(G)k4HRWwMj68!nj9nf91hUGML6dxu|~J6RaXu3YA4Ap!(kaV
zbRab}pzx{@-OrK9Q`crEE=`#GbC+Ra_Z<6?mj$Q1g#@pRk^Yx(fKiJGYAWWz-Pk55
zI3l%M{mGn+w|khc#gTH6WrRJ4W87r@-cGd6_U>yKPzN2gwqDa&eDRywIoi^#xKp#~
z&X?}oYHvpCa?OC#{lO;Pb6T_g&g>rkIwiFUmT3fl73Jc0J%coy_n#33w_hb<fT#+N
z-DZ;TrzfcV=+>6QlQOfgh<fdGKsqSttD%tV@se}d$v~Yw&E8&fGhhk&`ewR=i>7r}
z_gz7LHGdL!)_|=V2ab9c%25*^X-5KA8IKt*5NfX(Oc}2(EETg-c+8}<!Nm%*QjOay
zt3N@v-bL!ql}G*3=UQgl5L(zKq)v<%e37+F%`23suJ=M&+_5IIyGv-U_q$)SQk}Lh
zK{>6a)6{oJ@(Y9ZgJigi>xL%vk_>_~X_Z#uRx1qC)eU6rTjDLvqtz?J!WEC^!gQpP
z0NEm>B74NOgrrV9_^n+38JsWeRJjZd%c5pttZZYRUiLps7F7rl8%;<p3voENM?cT0
zWhr(`&P;)8rCka&zrw;^Mt44+f@T;_DR`Mcb#1%&%ldBFyelU8V03J5zezJ|s&jHJ
zb%(5Q|Kv`+!K=>l%~b7m%6v+4WIj4c4eRRLsd1qUjoDOlMv$h8SJZU&)ONHgNnE>y
z`S)>q2VwvRjxgM4V4)(p!_(|)w}8Wznk;Exe|Q;sKIQ&QbjTTKs9!v$0)*EP&v4B0
zzB6ZhnYmt@-0YGkt9!2Ww}^>+a}D4boT~EDy0UMZQgTp5be_sF*ZZ#rNRdiq@8{nY
zulm6frKlKG<*2@12PO9}H41lG2p2<;+n%9n)|vgswGJax4ZW#DO7?x9MHZ&<k(4F!
zKmGHG7!8&U4VK9a0Ok(%a48J%nj%ho17Pu4iIW9BjtsHAH9xJQ7>aGbH8zos3X<J0
z?7YRE*~1$pZzV~{A{YL^zpt!P$vylo#oJSgu7Thb{d*QoO1wI{5^fd%<CoL$tVP=?
zoOxz;2l>XsRDPL=zS~NH`DgCJ3F7;4D(k5whYr7-ORI;&URk<H_G{)aFv3WVl5kjT
zo`dPlU;@K2b0v0#YxO%<$#iXfg-SK=!%^CgiXWKCLS<xPtbyFD#^87k6nOB1te7!Y
zwAO{)RRF&0!JnsTp*41BMzVqLK{!~?piI`emaDyjE@N}3Y-16)D+-IlVV`Tr>7M^E
z7~r5*j@f2Jg=?jekMX;yUSeyn-|1JWs7P<$DJNJUSmQD9wjH9eSXi(5&g6O3_`I;z
z!YtVIbRSPTg1P!|q{S(Fs?GZGX*-+tLrV`DbR0~LKDJ8Jmn+>f&iK*3^_o<_qly8V
zP05rgWrh9*9eY9BZo;)t!YE{hF%eUAbn1Y~G~OXT(aMSEDHcQsyH$eu1687%lw#w;
zdaen)luUk;e@4{&wC031PY584se$Bb>GD~Wwnf}P+P=0pZtwSfS>ZbTzTtVL=47nr
zft7>Gd{G#iqnEq%oXdELqpxVW{d`8P9{-K2@RdQf$>^#67nA*7yJ~pZCf~Lf?2^nM
z4HKrh4(5BV66SHrbS2Ci%kspW_*5_&R=;HU7p2k_;1%F+wXs^~M+71l4E3Qkw~fxX
zxG8pPU1}Gog&%v|*J_rVc+8o1`XsU)LZHMcr>1YK#_=f%3iL9w#u;j}E6vqPW;M;7
zl=OO5bWS2iEFB`IrIrk;HVD{ix#`f4=?T~v@)!+d_Iaj5>6+v8rxRV=(()2cBw8(9
zmf92a7jEyIooDZ9ihmuWo40dx*sixM84=7Ve)_A0GIN@;)ArxobvY%&f0STy6^f?!
z<{gz1MyapS>oObn+ZqJi-s3D{=^^8^%)E9>{_I91^iI157C2Dfz?ZHpurz8idWTJ&
zH6D-BmXde<5f{69x-Kk894)7!$XISbnizzs^gz^3m2yLB`X8K~Q;=psyJov=+qP}n
zw(Y7eTU~aSZQHi-m2KNLrvEb&6X#+sPRx$H*qJ+aL`Gy@Wxmf^1B|tR$*PvPt4#m;
zsD{4|;u8_h=EY`7=9f?7`kDbTPbA}<Gr_VF<a9|c>p+R*7&%Sl-Q;AzJml^=Nr$3B
zo8-k%5>-&<PZ;i5|7@t%&VQCB60MIN5r|4``@V6Ac?Nr&OJ{%SumQDL15dgF+onP@
z)*AH=;<6_)D*r-mX#nAk;XH)m`R@%Lnmk45(hLjKnF!84U(SK8*-POA4nSo(%8AW=
zMU3|tHxJW@YdH-$f@5xrhsW(dlfrGQg|E?|mc7NkILo<+oFJQMx-{EL?_+!M53&?j
zgP}q`<#>NEtU;fV(0$tgR`B4WPW;!o4&G*nAYK@m+<O4%fc2+o)2cxJfOg(QS!|M7
zY?4xpyk+d~oj-akMSotrBA-zU3EDk&^<Vb}=rwrRVlh1?>as!h#s@5AQ)*;t1Pmo*
z(Wpo#>qhZ%4qG3pbaDzBpPQq}ocGWkDIq5cmWcy%s#@K3CajdW;1stcz?zwmr{A{n
z<&SjNwNWXxI<<n>*?=*ZIDig%+?u+l3O59dtk^h)s{i6{RAYOV**VWl`e_%WI}`WK
z8BprRet5C88mhW&^`L?3s=t)uH}l+aZS^hoVEs|j@#r<A^tGSy-t>;v?7TcJU&)Z6
zarspIx=7wSclA*8TD2BWcO{XfV$FQ9QL@y3f<D**bQe~X=Hp8$6v@jA;j1&v7k6b6
zF{@E@OpukGpwKm{;wpr}emJt=@zVKSx6BBL!(cMXb!~a|<JU>W9<2JjRI0$8W8Eu$
zvpj8c;e1kdJ5*J!;Wd#F*;Kl(E6mzlEOI{#KrD6AV56VB>S`}-bK9C0%TMVrP8Fxp
zgdH(dD>D8fliG`|xPN0K;*$yMF>%X;yJpQL^SRs3r^#8@w7Mtl+^?pWnaxd#cQIV~
z1HcGX7NN4PjPulkxNJbt#~>Cn)!?LQEh;Ih6>S1v-B1tccGpU5&_bOtuNgHkCi@w@
z<liyC=%64CHmv+Q#iCXoJ60W2Pdw+AY6qbf2ead(qWV~?j=Vq{Faq<H5<-g%-sG6K
z=-lSv@U!beto39NV%8c>cVO9^+lF;~kaB34M^-B#%{HR^SUX0&>_<M6fTwn}nB_y4
zt1{R?zP2A*s&tW7LR9NWc)J+zeR<JP{a1-}(dCfCbHwjB_+EaZN<mT#P0pszDlmFo
zU%9`99<)@p(yq6B9#e<|LD1<UzSU<3Q=NJ>mcF1eLF)mw?Wn!)bQhZ_TEnH7IG;72
zO3Z!8=AkazApQQFYK#%578dL}#&zj`eq^#QG9KXZ_BvRoE%0#${Gk@>Yp)`*i7R@m
z5f^4kGv0oz(MzP29#o7$l1=%0*19?5WR2RU??^nwa;l~Zl4;XATRXo`XmezMqlFi3
zs&Z_C7Q%LfXVg8sw$GyBuZ+W19AbuQL9$7mI)1yG(~!0&w01P_Wm8z1Nr>h$W`a`)
zqH`spGYnk4jZ9=Bs-tHi>-F5@+BUd~Ggl;uqnvV9C=VxKMm|~dlnbpa=vW}5Ci~~F
z6|;(JIvzZgyH|1D#Yi!hYxCZs6bdCB6np1N!9>==BD2{W2fFEH1I9E0M8)7!e@Dzh
zB}TH>X)S}#=Y4v~VL{TJH5*5y_MHu!Eop^o2AtMX`ZL#t8^TmuQ|Ckm7oY#<a!ZKX
zR_3aGtMh*F?_SiE&gW{nk~8r&QSmkA5h)ccGaT&na#{;pk4f_(5SWq>w*0j-aqqnT
z=^XBP>=Y`3^v%|3R*2l&T*e6HHUmZLMe9<ArR!;$8cD7}c=@oIBI(L%$``BzWnZrl
z$>F0|(MIt?r46U!q}VI2E8Mg;$^p>S)J3qE0`1DBAsL4+I+W2648{ZSdtuGo4b6qs
zO%JJq>yb8=gb9TsQ)O+?W?EdG-XvRTDRN(u%aiotB$b9CL3vs&`EfVC8=?2|N8(B|
zojm?%H@=OF1;<|OFZ=Gi8P7)5j~>sQH{A#A#xaz!6|HB^4aext<?=-(d0ZY%>fhq~
z9$sQ!%@KvS!h7?8<72wC_>);`O=HZ8bb}N%ja|6V6EW?9{>kMi9Tf{T({;51%6&TZ
zMBVwnnP}5Z7Qs3sc6)>|x%JpH8)q%W@74H;6F9fp%F^@mQOuv?`R8wH!`X0aUQt^`
z9Ne<ztx`w7d8(*9q5Aiu1)bE@c)ZbvQ7HCXBH|LU4y#B1o)f?;{L6zZGMbuW(V1nW
zh%6*pdIgkxSa}i4z04T`PbtpI#;dE&Pe5yPg{YgUsQj`@l7csot-s1g?8B24Z%?<<
zoY75V!?D3B^0UP$XJX5ImrYGWEvXx30;sP3T~>7TWuG!XX;^z;*1~I4H?N&RH_uz*
zk{JB_NQUQ)j3r@Xn+f9<RxUuFI8ylIvMa(vF2IR5V4s)qITwVf8j&avA}CKRKv%k?
zWqm}n7j3-BF1Gn<QP7_re>&rIF-!q!)M|NaO8y>H7UPd!s;C1p9c&t<{n<{)OJhmv
z$Kkz!u8(qB39R48OP{Mnwq4$UrNCbnr4a?~+NHi)GZzgfyF3IYo+(|ZVzj_yIl_w_
zb4wEg6o=dII?1MmvZ(#sb^6*_z<w=tNq&x`f;&DnHRF6=o}|o`#h1sp>f`2~AeN8H
zjS6m4fH$Xu^b+4+rd|fC9&~RUq!g670W11FYvnI6P$LlIv9w0n^8JEz^2!tL$41RZ
zbZ%u3Q?gqtlKEab$M>>y>cEdPILKuDdB9}-!!A4Sk8^ze)2n&><7~9$hP@GDae(;!
z<|uA56pln99{sb?7L3Vc{J%T@^OpmE1Y$($FQJB*@G4SL<l?;KZ{hS$6M_Bn-m*-r
zHpxG_faKVvqS#5o7}G#i9qEqoirStu<IqJ=<Rh<9EsI|Gn*0?&bE(v&^RtAIxZ@--
zP*PLf7wh;noGE;|OvX6xy!g6QuuB5{yolGh_Phf4*n0%j8CUl8#^cF*qzZ+87AN=J
z`cN%7f6lAzKB*EC9upExdnT_iK1r@3$CDyK_LoLS;j6)OI7O%Y(*?h4Ok|dz-F+wY
zsd77Qg2yXVay7ET&0m0Y5<v=px*;9kv{EwP=mk~!h?xv(z|KjF@NNL8ownc$tG!C_
z4X?dQ)Kiw;gts7*H=III@cy<IwwQdi7UuaP2<&4FnmN4XjPhx);&L@2ML%izFK$*j
zS>+vrp!Pprz=bKIM!hyd6GS(|P(2P`=|RWRX(O&(_vswXlgW(rzmGXUkC1}izX{yj
z6s^rPAQa7aHe%MnX8oM_*Wcy!9+oULKGmF!NVG||qGHH@8EBKl#Q6K;NM|eC3BFIW
zSxzNO%({=jb|~TutO;4ARJl(F1^(&kY7kU$(D2_8+==Y(d+hmc_WjBZ>h`s90&cF<
zfYA2VsKLgCY<h-$d^A{H$X?(ynchr~$v?}k^iF+w`EJjk4crbCRJhr#$oUqu$m_K*
zyXiAj@K<m*tm|#;Joz*I{Q%;7If=D|X26#tc$4wV9wof$3~%VkE+{*Q4<vA!ZL7Ua
zDEARe&sW3-{KMND-053lvjizBD<mkLGNk8Fv^t>@Ha~>#QDEi4f$!yK+3E;xJxvxQ
zJY`2B3o);qQ)+T$0f4AbhMK&8jhX%7)mS&F`Q*K?E@N~)`;qB4@R)w6!|vy3d}%%9
zpc+?Dkv<9ftr7tA>v5H7?*D-+VP^av;YwJzn3?`Bu7s71iIwxeqg|RZAq-WA-=B9>
zIG}+3iJ=kMX(I^9Bprk$!GxtK8-)5uQLXxQ1woUHqcCG2os?8TZ<>D<*cT8RgP_&}
zxefh^gw#}26%4F9@iyQ7caZ-tV*cVU;>T-op3cHzah#owG9O+>PDdW(6bi3!t*PZ8
z!}sa~bU%uLhPslb_n=VV%7J+1JUWwpC67OA_A7olb1XJZ)yH*iP@u@3)TtOnY`N3x
zy-P}d*&IP>547zji?`lzfM_FE?9e9SvqL^qVydAd6?xcW&z`H@@_BQM$4?8C<Nk*4
z_dDAGjHT4gk?2BfzpsT-|K@&)Ycy^V2ht8-VV<S&&W6bixmN*y{G0O~Tcdg5=Ih#T
z-C&HFEX}Tm)yrqmplwp?TSBa3!7s7~$^mUNSK;ylt(X_fD0!r!6}PicE9{OpxHEZZ
zJD0yQMPm-PzgsgmMg2y}1*~d2@#hmai>i@~M${`)+A`Z3FNlWP!=}GB!~GHFQ66#a
z^6ehkeI<Ksl#&!$=PMuSz65*cuwqzKmj!JqnoE8f34W&3k(O9n66D|_vKFRazMrOF
zL@Cd>a=mx0Ey=SV9M8EW2ERUEUO7J8H`pk}OJe4B0&keE%AB=tXg1|F_Ldz`R+xvG
zRz$u_zicW{OViBfn^{wj=X^SH&}W6UMLATUw!~#l-4=(5b$5i^m9e(OWX|lh#Q|sd
z+Co1?$u10A5|yWZUca8&GVlx7sAby-26~g3Rf9jH@C%=sklr1<g7J$-t?)K+6hCmz
zs9x(4I&*_(w7oEU;`%j)ko^=6a^oh-|K#Lb%$Z-px3Mp%uZzxz7zo<*NHWX;9--GA
zX|&xsA5r*$UJOPLe+&v&tRT9Dc+TX!VE7L3yi(of?AITD&>BciNpx@KJ|2PI*CigA
ze1*NO2z=!~&S>5<;PY0#T=ZW{!|$;6eaek}gEV*MUcx<5nYi#r--JW)<GFl-n+z6&
z=>EuCa%U4kXcRoDPoQg)Z74P6SY}I@@<ly+VB60L$3biyOD*0dS}N=zue?+)dq6t^
zl!5}^D|?pRDwp@({h%C0^}_$^RnWUtq#(X^A<KTm!dCu0Yk_d)(<uB5CJ0-c#vpQi
z#luTr8*CoUKe1LA;tc03ND;$VyLkRJ?{pQ_G$6nl1Ni}aeZ$248JvOsUT7OZaQ6H5
zy$)JHT3~^}Mflr4+Hct7o(C`NgVZOs-?hh~ZHD0Wg(ACP!LnbP8)u&z2i*x>BsXYI
zdckFi@Ta}fxd&OLkrl^8I~cuO%xX?st~y0sCn`{3=`VKwU+$9-Q4JJyD&KSKr>1vI
z1{~{{CUR}uktuWSu4P@BS?%CpHu%ssr2RQ<>j-LE^%7fL*$rGK?9d^*YS-DC!5_P(
zXKm&hh6QdLy(W8Ygx98^PLfSNq-7y%>LW!WxzdGYq%XZg1A;<nPw8W|gOS*FCzl-e
z!|=U9C+ARjEM7|Q-GFbcbgVP0@-OB0=k_l5+8n+P_ltG1cHhpH>I7sRFKt!_)n0ko
zs|>aRViMh!5Gl#R7Ob2}pH>E{9Sd^L_ZJ6>%^YA4)L@UpkImbOD(umd>D0MRHIov;
z<D$AWDqI#aOqD3dmy+$P^$r$Z`<)t>IPXSw?v<#E1{Z~#4R=+2gp?KY1ee8N5+Wd~
zO{^I5(oSFP9-hHeE(<3saX;>Rnp&jfW2sEcr5d_qiKRX>INdjG&qzSCx-Y9|e(S`k
zRxDLpNn7=d<RoR<E@1r0yl9k+^iWDbI??m(k~LT6_$Y^XLe{+vuwhTv?d%MTcHA0~
zvzxBSIC8-P{kLp!jFPT<N~1KUwwYpU#p}CY+~Y8!rzPhR)&K{A8Gw)86?oi;Y{Gjz
zj}koK9s8}iR4Vwk8o@*%sT(N)tBx`NvJ%{oAMDW+462mE!(OULgxfRRuJ6`a&RFwD
zIbq}Q?a>FRfemrqun1BM7ZQqm=7lu8WMWLC*O{E-o{rw7)h22^wKw8btZl=B^avw1
zm$u2!xSWD7`@$}GB{d;7Dhc?h3hM|j0jZae0D(zNRitJm^^)p&>7~dC)T2!dM;7Zk
zSxS}J;ER>ORxo)YH7lNe;%J(3O5p@JvWvHU8>1}o!PV2keUl}-jO8f8>D72)mQo6<
zcpECwXX@dAJkMX=$@>7=hsv|8hd0jMILDGqA-eWyrA_ZoSD|c(1xyrPIBm{mGUnd%
zxubZFC7nkb%Uv!-GY7EotnNIOHfwY1M&+;)A@+5Fad;*5Tb~hW$rFZ9sAR^n06h^y
zp#OJ?q+^AwdI1A5X)UG)C}8O24N%}{tCY8V9UXB-1Xh($UJPC4RN0f&Q3m5`QWTCj
zwI+aQO1eK4lKam-lxjIFZclL3)}0fP!;A2)C>^W8n^|VF*0VOqx7J?R-O#MYfTc7%
zytlP>R0s+Rf$N3+ZfKs_CfF$Lp5g+L{WbUp0`$*TF;dRu-apxO+{E8akD%LGxA}lS
zJRK`n(Hbl$g_#tMeFw3Q7AfeqZs-^(DWye8=oW_x*HrhnuxX0tSl3s06aenYPD1;h
zHZ{G8<pznO7MrMgissEix^X&%xfED}D_@|ND(`Vfhme{xtG9B`BRZsGUm%(Q)U!$$
zgFPx-`#nT1xF8bYkvMOn5X*X4w&F0CxSgu_$0*2GD^|aMt}G@X0X#qQk77xIyC89E
zRxGvXJ@!F9A=Vi<&qSGrharGiy`}W0HUHE?m`_KkLVL-^To2{Ukg5TkLdES3&F4o$
zFWsl!DP|gs5|^<o_0)@DmT=g;a@L669HLeS2hTL5!$3`2p(oU-wMn04Ekgs`h#!q3
z;l3Hv{a*Hw4sVZOQjoZpn6}1#z@6u5OCT(gSpWkvmuLkpB8f@~(iT$0NTJ<q0P~kI
zr%%*_kEh*`T(`=-seA05lD~oiE6<4)Sp*K*N%HcOOVSOwen{ESMzCmsE$b$L-|_dp
zxu>pFjb)Ng7lhEk!&aGH;s}C-#z{RZb*wMBu_S9Expcw4Dq+MZGqTNM^u1V%MCdEp
z3fp>=#=Nx4(UId`@dY~?&`a#yl3+xFaD_6N;1!`|040o{gNTyYq8)MO<`nBB3kFFP
zWz*z%h@rvM5D*yVCzmhWt49X}vP3vjLFmMR>$7VFMVxpyP6P=%Pn`ELS@36*%>`0o
z&}ka#3otkPQF5sFYmMzfjh$$lgWTCa*|k#RJE*P!5?c_o0&Po##}#h#^Q1+o46#2l
zf4)F7T;noVY6}F-yRT-HKB=3<iAbO)NOF3&m8GjDTbb;9v^7lhpep!#sHFoVW;Eyu
z^$)WN$vkTb&<PTpzYzBFFkP9f!(MbKxzK`;KO?9v6#8H<SUAUyaM$SAEP-<l`-76Y
zA*!@F_K)I<b6H^f-w9iR`{}Y!P{t4^`Y~DXx5KpZHjFy--FI<a7L^cehyAtm<31FZ
z+@e#(DtwodVdEaj`WjSglvu8G<Vkf@l-N5WSLGoXwnoZx<N6eC2vBo(YNqY{xg{g|
zLge3tZ<u6I(Z%7NN!rw|G#P>LdA0WpOkI*Mgr1f8q75<J7fh-JqnvNE$FoRz1eoyT
ze=hcRAcrzm2)9v*eIp<0tcd7lX~<f!+1}Q}OIpl9sOvvSd@R^DVfYK<F%Ah$S|tql
zqkIC}3H%}y&6^Ytu%%Tj``|ljOF0qqS*JH8TXk9WD5vR*+4s`^#da~4IOB>JC6H*I
z+$W$5b=drnJ5fx`7lcXT-f6r-bYI-*ejzRH)C?2ax4eN<f~>KQxy<!N2^k2-TwN`4
zGACeXc8b*0LLH1SCiQkxMRN=)eyi;xl#C$#z>a@}IUA{05eH#+jwqQtKD7NlY|NPv
zX4%j(LFX)O60pp84r9Ss2j#|h0dW>YN(1|Wtea)E%veh_KV{3BK@%I%Uu+j10>XRJ
zQvNuXEALSfgt^Kb>aJkaKew_dUhKDwgJH_3H;A{x7^BenNkV6yc9>NfF=GvI#H9q=
zT$YH|l8t)g4*vmXTa5dapR1UK7Q}UU7BwiHA6lb4d%iEobrQl<gDntohd!)LG5&Ai
zNJmOq@9cvYa+py=7m-+@Zq6kSlqTj3ifi7Xu&YZ|+$|M+DV`R$3rpUEFr%htE$#T>
zmh2s$&vYF5AWZsQhWNnb6%o?qi-;^0&a1P<xr^oq#CD=cT6^$$Lpv@a>Tj&0Em{Mb
zjhAa4gB+g5Pu}ntI|}$1pRo`mdq4Vu8GDlr3)G=r{#BP~Qhk*Mj*HW8HVYwX5`Q^B
zh>1J5HTJ=ty)dRZEQWPbSyFv12eQ3mC!OpVW<T=$dcLS*dc4}@8u~(i76<uDG-$M-
zy1a}C<C|WDkN9n|0P2M#_viS6Oj+WbTd%qmZk1+Q)+i`X*6bMDdXPQXzd3DTRsVJd
z!<l6R=G)s42R7NQPu&_h?Iy;AHSOegX^SMuv7HGI9I7+pOzL;Pu-#&In!**A3*PY?
z(6a2$O~0qoWQZ%%^h!bSu5M^O8>d5dQ9Q3hzgvW3==d9D&N=8Y-T^)~T9yp{;oD%E
zg2<r{BD0$gLjf%2O0|Mj=o{QVbc>-ZTJ*3tcXTKgL*Zr_mkHm9ZQhR{l}9dy^hh7R
zmUIdK-(#S82yPfb7Oomx(QQnDXuQ)4I7Wsc6|dj2uNdu9{H*<53CuBm9y2-#_OYdF
zky?4lt^~z@TpnvBFBqrl^#kD`A2-Z&GDaNNmi3-eng}H^x;U6vg$XyD$+yTh9<+yf
zo0N#eLRO=LE}s?`UbEgcw-8GdpLY?BF2FA7X#N!FrYa}dS~OKw+J)m`3}4Y+E(Tng
zp(_R-@<hWpIO_~9(>CgcyJNt)HH+Y@6!YQO#f2FlVMcafNsH)-IQkM48~TN}SO<|y
zGQ5kaXcK>k|0$qY_fE_T0(n;CUB74U@&=J37(ksE!J@y!V8QnL1I%pd@2R*(>fPU6
zQ485gV<_Px3<qX;Lr&Ry$#6<QcD$8Ga<pC-b(zeZE5596X;LI0Y7&!c)Jq%h2%b^A
z2z!^Ak3TLy=vztxf9$`AHQwV2eDF>YX<`iT6glaNSv%x|!5pTu)8CUR%{R4n>fKnb
zS(X8E67DH?ND=_2vU4r%T7A++uu-_A%l6B3;>|*T_89R&mRBsYot~3DS2$BouH5*N
z9fRnbFc>c%-VOJDBJhLzaU8lQwI1@SI}LoDy@tk!0*$M5Xw&w&kb9)}))xA4$shU=
z;uO(C(2!T6vF~>vmY9Ci41V1tri9pt<b+@+Tas@FO!X39Qy+CH&Mt@CJB=8QoT6Kf
z>Jdh%gNWaTrLW*z?R{T25L=`a$GfrpdNCSK^19t`j*t(h)nDD9;>FIwyXPVtVZgmA
z9@A+3?)F3z^?#us)ta!Q2eKB?Wal2rAfs1m3y%!<4Tf2Qw{)f6@_y+W^+*lQniu}Y
zL-4ZvU~1hKeV~p0S;j30_Y<vw_mQSs^h>};Hmu4r?iR<Z_QfR87thu(u5O6%8r+Gw
z0Gc%_Nd@2Y;*$*1(T$VnwG6m0AJJHx)(m=kQRo`9u>`HVq+cX4#vO^2wmv_P>e-CR
z$TNVSdl}UKfV+!T!XEkYIPk7gQepD%6&^Q-h8uB3zrO@h|HXg_l@Z{>2z>YlAVmFM
zr{Rz6+MD7Oqf_tqg?QsgrDt|YUh9ZPhD~7P^A3D)h`l;zqljTc2>}aH&=o=mVj6h;
z=V2n%Z|=xOOYbe(^bsm5<7`HmU<<<gkka!JT6zItAXG>0YVSJcqUK%yG4rLUI-&Zi
zsGsnnS1QVr56cSW$@n~PM!ds@X+^FW@c8CZt{=dAljq?J{{A*R^08>;&{TZAY-b22
zslts-3sK6n1F5dUa3S$K*lUe`_4iRy?1f8Z+PXGDp#W_W{xV$B8FwUmdC_zp4knOx
zz}`8x#v>CWlxaYGfkTk#g?AN_w<64kR##ZiECgFci2DS?f00qR7UYLLezT3`)p(qw
z1a0(@2Y&HR)#t7d17o}L(X}R8269DcTjlmI1GTAh<_3M8Y+^*U(A&n1bj;$*|L#3v
zT>q+b2JM3FF{MOtw$`aTym{um^f-;QR{TJA8$2&>z(CS9;C2Z5NWNC|Q#_%&HSc3E
z^*b}{P&A;oKv^A~6`W*{8^(3Empk|b=l|7v%l0&iU8D_c15)|r8I6M7f&cenP0GVR
z$eUyu={94YWa38SHgg|i55t%sp?*;d!d@M^jNmw^#87GMTbN*0)5?9%VoQlHkPoP`
z$xGO7-1$rXvAy?HW5W`8*{};?8I66~8B@goMA3*Pf-O6(bEt#OMGn8?n*Cgfge3A9
zyWV4_WKQ?Xvkvzf=QdVP&Y6v16TNvpPGpb$Mj{Q;ACvvTQN56SAjPoj&d4@PhD9{z
zcu?};U!EMNJeEIY-_S%I`j%dlCG91!9`1=Yye3jp1d_FsI_&{3um{MQ*g02lBjy$7
zw1k>=VBHu=j!m0e;2fa%(#G(45#;66O;%QWO|`6L{6%_V@*Cp=>8%&EZe%9M{Ifc}
zQ2}bv_k!dnGaoMCccP;}5T^xNd_L&Go_+!T5DVxvR&2SFugXG$sC}Tze$O96-};|S
z-~$aW7DRl_+J66PCHYp+`OXnV2SKC9W`O{>TOqVw)GHb%8F&>Lpf9O$;4Lva()dNW
zyy}rOsNIuzQR6SzXvxW9!OlqfRM<kyaT`+^{bI;KN2ucy#PF;mO@{b2QKSppB-VUv
zwOL#WRL3|$yoipvuG1IeD<_2WdK5i#zu4xu)fax+FK;8>ZsZ3I`2AQ`cJ5rwMn(r)
zq2BCZSAc1SiG1IB0oBMPY;c65EA{*+;H!$+1mRMxN}}G)hV~_7c>Ny|MPBuzO~APN
zna0fcngF>zcY@eUF?|dBhGv<fhCm2@TPONOlc0Fqv9sgr;IFT5CEHEwpnL`z=7}Rh
z<Z8cX6r+akp=bCgSXF=Az0dw7viF;&g~L$y2%#QB{BqZvC)x}X#>*MeHQB^}l+8s~
zfn0AC=cs9M11A_<5|@KMX=gs*I+d|lN4!8A4XN$OHhYe$I#mZTB-6}aY|M4n*w!_n
zJB^14GbGdGz`;2Z!2#aW8k?Z+0mJ<dVSSz;3xbq6Fb@TdjK5P5opNTu4uhnOyRmk=
z8iQ|7R8ByNEI`eSEI@sK5+8sZ;Ss&i315Deums0){3#CXSF0e(>6fou54Evo411zJ
zas+iAM>6b4mNj<<9k`lPKKwPfETZMC893xFr?~ysSv(vRFY!(}jQN}q*&#OTRt|fJ
zmOIkxFphe1sh%l@bJj-74%U)_y*f785IoQ7vTFo&CoeQn(8u07I=;9uE*t;ySvt2g
z8eF$uhw#-Ldz$baPhn59#@DV#iS<mYw_s&Ctg+wTAbnKTf%u_Y8JbKl3y9&F9&BNF
z|G79*wxr+Qv2EnKzl>mpu#K(r{U@qEjWg`27<#zr?`+IyxMFK_&wq%~EsQ+Lj&uKk
zz1;L^04?~AhHM&kupBg76kEL)C$>E|Z<<(@sGPK5TrupXy1{CQqgn1=x~9|EV!0t$
z<v`%=-M41JIZ$uWEp=Ctg<4Y>@yar<;IkCU*VKW4+)&{6N6>n!{MysXBR_w7Z2vNf
zAX2>slF9l4Ug`--j)lJjgkDcge69B7*m}<|;@bvyo#0G!V@U+(Pd{?Eg`IBns-S!&
zIoGy>n%RU|bm3aXnnYv8u}#gmL@<GVxuCsIOEpET7FvOHUgAkJ=@i1+l-0ATzP|+V
zsayI5FnN>NV$?nmZPPLAFRz?LK9EFvqbIMrFUTFs2lvxA>hytoBU!ywQHWgc^`oa+
zaPQRlnrA6nFczP}6pwwVpJNy)N)0J@h0PH5hGOzOD@NEbZwstOc||9h*>hTKs1f}p
z=NREa<fUnxC7*B;{YD+r30@o9(XE_rX~@E}jpMFV%IWut?gf6K7VnTu=bvjQm|+^;
zJpCjB#N1DGQyBfMY2rkD$(hZB=7vFiD2H~7khs*3(mwNWD@io+43jV*Tc}H}NM1Ye
zQO%5xtsZ^SuS{gueP0OLIL0*}du0$lYXW;$MYa=JM5_trR110kC3#*JG#^VhmV%5I
zzU%Vs8|!;B9K#|CR43HGYzO1K@nQUI2eI%!nf@9H&i*HUuW|f_<a&tu*kBP@R5^Xi
z*#y93UC<S;pX1hcZnE^`6o_UCZUMXq&UnM`|564e)2`#*U5jHsx-J3`S)l!*3@sq_
zHL&XrhM%NI{N(Q<<^y~gY6Ny4xS9^YW}J0Xbzfm2Zmxm3THpq-C8K>kEMmy4KWYA&
z=-2dFN4Pst7f*Z*=jY*!JjA2g#foGFCVY=bsII(X`|<YB{xun4jf{sa^4!OTb2H>C
z<XKvf8}by6^?X3x-?T5q-60PG(j>75iBsuVy%^zKk!?_*j`O#%!VhQj6YK$w_FSKt
zcH>)k(>ljKp^En35=zj5|92jYZT?)i7I-HgYciuumn1QnjAhKvoC93vDd=CG22<sB
zx?{Z4gfmiyRF+xa_ChkffC>0#ew13JSPNu*ZcIy^R&KeFo@mj|!?U%vtnT+w3uot%
zf0)uh>_vG$VqpD;R&%t)Z38u#aGkbDvvHntFNnst>p?51MJ?cem<v-pDeElvLb`VU
zbpx<+0(9%t&veF$6Zv&$MSi>Tz}0Ij1%E-qvFLNU=NS6Xuf$~wMKB@zc7d9lvW0)p
z?QcdgaUg$HV7$M<J}xmWqCBl49JuRMiAWm?h^Maz$A>*ZPKokxBwX}|QkH63=>K`)
zubcM4zxfGSPB*iz_KXA{e=5<msc<dPHHmEOj!Dyz&x>nTJMlS>R@jlfdb*g)SqX$F
zkLNr=vG7rwewja0{z802%zXlzdEp;zls|Fi|8ji&3cUz9O*K&DIPi@g-JsGsrkDm>
z@-$?eR$45LG!Y2!`#@V7cullxD%7sgQr*E0bsdxWmw@fR?!f&7T@N%Syex5J1-e>Z
z8sRBdkk~Phdzy92@chM2w2ifPl3QTwi+4P5a!W5K@-tDO#eNAkNf7wvhkkqnG~!~x
zV>_YQ$aj2dlw@QddUX#pFAL^sNw}@&Cvl-z!yi@>@uJlQbDWuWag&Go#e+>eBWDp%
zt0eKyT<YjnVdp#zI-~HD_pS{FC*m7D_dWDU!|&(?wertd-Yqb)dZv2<zWiX=Gza`o
z6SnPv|MnE@izYVb#rL?R<k8EmDDWkLT|xl5vDkhtvTJwCu-a2kxqwyU>}ekLz9Mf7
zhYgoA?7RQUtL}}*?vMRG+Wz%b9>`YT1MS)xIRf^Ks$_r%=0!g+<XO!*ie^!jT4uAi
z0@7lDux(N1R%--uJPhZ85RPUscHcg<R@bHgTMavktA_SkEc6q3_#4r{(wOts0hkZr
zwN$v0qzl&{jp4~*LMhuH`H}Z~!|7A52mjRbQ|_%Hf61}_=(W<z9*QrnmueKz(p8lT
z;$1CY@KVdjwo5EW$}Ud_&1px%KqOJrpRL7+?wRfeZ@jSvuK$auUBkSDlL9PM{w0E+
z-m3gL<a}NNn5)Kq1e1D1axTt&{%D>5@e6Ti&5^R7uX5R_Nj2-_hBM)y4W10Km+NL`
zyt~(T0#Evjao`@w+aI_+1!IR#KhTjrZ(OsG^n)ejzZBQl%U88y&2Fs6oB2*x0*G#t
z(324~WgH{Z9mo384eo~a*HUlh1Se^{52);jHr^LTlU4wx<0wxTiu*ULgFEj!tcJSh
z@;#r}=6951p~toEw3k=!F4W@G!R;uH!q4nr>CRWzBr8zYCh=V_cGn<1GCNJ@+{S^;
z69V9bKBYE-KgWUayA*BCg33!QVCf^3`?zY?hS(oStGIETG?x;e`m;d)MtG0D$2l)|
zjK6nt;Yz}E6$YP{46D$tc8ph^XTZgl<$tajUpjv)fSW9~5(L(rL2jTO`>kxpx-Pr@
zps&FH*fMT4_w~|De${Lb^bSit{`==W^;=JElg{*Y$<TJUQ^h9Izjq7m<@8)ZZKY9=
zyN2M`!K5m$3XOk$^P~U{uO*!`?{5@KY)*uFbMBO_(O%f-mVbA!wo{K9)Gx`)RzDKI
zQ-j_<;Uc5GLB@nu@n3%;FT^IgH<IN+bkAbZkPdo*4%@b$ZXAn0{D+^2kGAnX{SN&l
zcXd$zB01razWPptV0{n_CEppHtjt1ilkJ)_;$2f7q00h2p}p;5{N_6?8z48h_2#<M
zi{9OQVe}UR4TpWef&V6|0oeh3GQ2AE+<Yn26$)MM6i#>C53Q-Qt*iuB1Ac5S0|{?#
z0;^NPU4QTlOWw`fq{2Hf7lE7mT_K}_Yrx746T<!TZvsI+emT+6kF5XHgZF}c2n^^$
zEr0W2upApqa{6p@vM=PSnc-%h&2*);9~h53L}4Ke+97yOqgz`9ucH$^i_ZE5WaqgT
zEv+-0)TJ2a^afc29AF#<IsM_1+cR$6Z8d{Z(`UxM+A%BPE`x*@*B~HYgd10DIA7?9
zS7o4Dz+QM*HGNXSCoTb0`h-0}C_AI+1KYR8a17`ERquXwl(`^a)1J|TNkr2{py!z#
z*!Q;Nw|aV~T*Hd1D1kQzpkoL&9n5!lSw1=0hbbqpVv7?!*<Kr>)l)T#>u4fM`&DDo
z!Z<61mX6<M#U_`l!S!ooFJ|c2?8BIG3&Ndo@9MHueBObfW38}`>bvitbWO1$4(dDU
z9EFl52=hQHqumHbx>q2X%PF)?w2{d^5_prCZ(ka|&ajU}0i4Smsyd6wcRWk5IaF<B
zGQS<9{92E*l23p>ue6hW9Zce#OD0<TB`BqQU?_T-P-YHJ_-yJe%w7s?ZP4{1JyO^4
z%6j;qJ!8c9TlcX_29|RJ8?qC2_Tq6_kZ~ctiiYg-dtgw#b9@gu0!(X4Iaj^N)DePr
zz<OVjV=(TsDUZ8IZ745CBRo=K4Pp2FMeGA#YZQGPEK3Nlz?l!zJSBZGJmNM9V83G^
zMvjRrS8xO0#pnKd_XXadg6#aqd5t(i{Ir$-`CLZ=hqS{Jc>|Mgsz3gb;xTfqPNo@s
zVl4@BHEp^&JP-erLFN&foQ9BEs4I#J1Y98iH?%_)6Kp`&{!C$q7V@c-_y8uUx+B_*
zYC#pc!$r1yxX;6L<!Mc}e0~hCC=?bgebVH|@ig?267-(nUu$YBY)~QgX1p`gk-k~O
zbh_i{fuNzJ(}}gr%Au%thcEsaediYFJmQ0N^#KRRs6a9!^V{H%s7Ig?rL2)H6<(`y
z*w?a6rZDx;-D$9?`<T&dn6xTJ(mNeWmxn^nwG8#Epq96`3d|SwYbDBszJlzTWD5V3
z#V$+Q1lE<wEz#~DP3J122VK)3qB|JL$o4lm^kgm7f-COLKF|rmitlu5&5=vU7RHSk
z#%puIGN!|3jjIQN-(VJBSPjZfpLkb{n}48_sBYjIa?23=eclZn>rVtToEYEP;^Oun
zegUY1Wupv}EGK?Z{;xTK_YITT8>Ah{VxVUmj~j)F-qMJHG$muWLV#{?k0Zr<#%oG@
zT88MPM3xL=YuCt_U$;t)%u61B%^~~qNo23u!o#VO9mTpo|2p0Jc&xU}Oa{S%)0aty
zR=@?cW&Le0qG<A0J3_V{=BZqu1I?d{p%k^PcQm4hK7j6wdh9dz@}C0`M={(<g1fP6
zk~)K4up3E09q-Sd+gwA>$W^+Y?9`o2jDI4|oBPJaW<yZ_o48yZL4(B|tJCH^O`1=Z
zK4zPcg<ltHD6G59G?1-Ns3&VW&?c!5C_#>ti#d?>IEph5{fdkkTqNJ-K(+T+O*iQ?
ztG*@7qIe|<6;8*r&g!32Lf*%=s4DHhXhmOJWsk&%!Rz$53}&_Fq~eRy3da!ry%9sh
z|D|GRL#7p9KGYl;G>2dQq6Ya_-jhZ3<{M7KpS&{X?hNlpP?AUV0)81#uRl14H;i>f
zF6~&#s;vC{O4lt-mgqN9JBEE~#k}C$X|(wzJ~zSQ;~-UGY&7--Cewe*m{QqG(#|k+
zqgIq%MyZOcd`LY)gB~PC^sSOUag*MtgH{}=6iJglu`-Yb<we6fj3~w@MmH>YeCa&<
z(oRpUAPhkTY?m{sdaVq4-YQ(L{EtQ!spx-K{faI2!U+8RqwdQPb))kpiFu*sZKoJ~
zMDiYa$zU^G%w<Dm&75on+%*`Yi6Kh0Km7LnkH%GY^LU8)Uw{@#lSaP^;vTJssrOv8
zJ3B&u)uGmqEK{z2r>sFgixmgj-UeKgw~!-?SkI&*is#SxBZ!n6t=KwTbFQI#JV1Zs
ztK?YgC3oMwoLFPW-&&dswoo6nIa;iS+#{J322K7G%G`Pz0zfIPw-&$ATiOvx3W65D
zp=a(9UkV>>XFFo2=C+w<*pXe&l@9KMTuL^rL*1pJXZ8_W$`$Q~W=liYglEsdJ+pVu
z&^<8#Jq1IPy^(jOA>xQD#X>8`sN9gM)^Z(b-^8<{z=~o_g;t@#*3|QlnTXf|fbc?V
z*|B3(3*Y45%#l+38$Y8G1tuF(%-{ebw3S-;hgAfI?YW7y#_e%O`YFk@KZh<fn%72J
z(+$x__9?}*?vBf5S)cMLJety4_7++LQ1&KNM(xQ*=qZ_6_7&k5u>T^_OaS7P5Ly^b
zd&Bk|GkySXN;~aJ{iIQQiWxhAHYJ_*$B@dry`(@2V+=NhIOU9XL9?Vm)+l|_i48!S
z5<!ciIns#QfLeFhs5{IYYeoyeOrg;dZ#-0Ey#~K)h&FEjV@3*qOxdFy)O6Bv(hO~Y
zHNu)?4kybrBLw_P`KHyPO{c}8J)^avEvNm`RMvcNcr<FyD&~-3NXen)qsD#;aIrWW
znNKc;k+DdTr^VBvH#s95o~6ca4x>ru+h}Yuu>#D89x10R(^hNJ8%Y^URavgW%qI-1
z%qhB@qNBli3nQ;COwDJJ<rHJdsHAYFkkiI!Vb`;oMwnUkxtGnjmyPDQYMs{&)h(Kr
z4=X2<WfX(UpvsV*{DaIID`XBEGikx1XN#E-QDqG7TW|rC$DKltSOHWi0$SgHTbJY~
zDCXtsP8?HqwERrol8-O}4737`xMpt=M-nLnnmra=15Rl-?q$TwAaAiphGMkbY0q?k
zz{u6>zYdx`HQ{nWK59sr@M|;oWB?4bdaS=QG{!7Mx%HPOZ%K{YfO{y5XC{khBtRG~
z!Ef^$=Z+W6=ekStwc&eu08iGn-Sj(M3P<}bkJk3?$5mOlTu9e6l>PyZ-HEcp!Q_9o
z-aRw`K+90yHP#T)=oi?yJ*g!yqvc@i8GEGFGsi-UMtkI=LjYKyRd8JXKN}AO@E!?{
z>E7&$_7msJ0%UX0f%2M(m0buE2r3CFwHanhG-Oo91j}D1s0%*QkAVroPKt?yN6udt
z;e5RuyD${tyy&=3DyP!Hl%khfm0hScYR4hJA-Cn$YPDW;bv?3CH*LN!RfDJa!{Q(B
z+8}lCc(L;I;u-A!;C(aYFaGd-Gqtd*kY*#Kkl%yO#u1nkoslV|AUZ{tH(GeiKD$?z
z4#F2o6lXj}1nUVZ0>9r=YkWAU=?zIjAj%g2fh)L0z}EWbdT{Wi@LFsuDD@F7x(kQo
zCI31yLnGkX_z-_FRmmTZ&GpYWwY4@_2aB~fOb3azHbe)Xwe_zpbhc`st;i4i{;@4g
zCl+_m&l;ojgFo9R9x5A`9#F6Fx5T%9%!^5&alyy~N%~m&c7E-Ek_R~aQUEc4$N}yF
z=Y`@0;)TZr#|Oa&g9nPM1Bnd_fCz*L0O|Yc^X>E7)!)V6rRm!`2O8zyr8i`#gD6v5
zAehG(m)_4~2!sd^T1S&Zwja%&6E(69QOYk<O4Alvj44A>{lyl&9*r%$70`jN7NU(Q
zhxkaQN>%~f{7WsCS|qtZT5-EfD6Mpu5`h}YOq47SmXc2zBSa{@potPLQmkBwI*GXg
zB~-h=8t8|I5v~j56aJNBmlyV=HoySb;aBf3eF#7JPZU_dztA{H4nz)!JP<`-FBtrQ
zq7PbH!3fjBMuE7|gv0RRW-zvxosgKKjA9fMLNg`2T2O^J-2i>261i$Zo&{EDeqq)@
z#0gdgE`&S?tjMi)OX0fX;>PWSdY-ltU75KmN(Iu91Y6#@691x;DxNi#H5D~Vav;Wy
zD3_v}D)&UFw1}1xx+=9B3s~|bA8ZZ~KPWvAM&M5%(6_@b$Zl`I4#*A24^-hh{w+aY
zFYpiWC(EtQE=ON&V5^~v0oXKf?Js`>AA(o>TfJS_Tjt-`uRMm(uk6vUP`f&Pj=Pw*
zb&T(iu*V*-%^+-;Yy*XeYys=RR%_ws5>NSFN;ryqWlv@Hsu<RI)^yfz)@;^j6)3KF
z)?|?qu6dD)_Oeeti@ZrNYT?v^M}_x_?Pa*QnYOCv(y<Bon5Z!Yx3Q#~M!#Xxz_vq&
zzENMHe#5^q-D2M&^u+}b01E_&3czfR9CF&5ZN}<Qwwkm$Wc7L)XYCx}9JtFz-(}Q?
zn0zyd|1(Rk^RqKOzo!|8IpFmA8sji*n6HaB>i8CZ%Api?nJ3NL--*4(jyaIrNMNcI
zk<4R2NjytT3kBUrjNOf$L9(EE$IC>k(pKTbZQ|w2)#Z{SO%SqLh_b$S)G>^Ok^kwU
z)x<8s=piWDhE;B&kZcBDfv^haMxUInMJWLM8DH)Q&Z8IuOULmA@-rpwYXt=k)C&{|
z!~nk63-kqghfK1h&s$!C`(S_QU6+klafv4V#V}t_IS4L4-xy4cajHcxzV!>L4Ii25
zbbAOv)^?wx<Ky)^g1={_JMhM__M~&`;<YBi^;7%B+HY#e+Ap~?u@`<{ql3r8uOP_5
zy>@qlT>X~r+PnvAJ#*8q$8lhWqs`anD>%;KNeQs!`pI0f36x7X1pgy`dGPFh#XR-?
z81Ldm`Ze|FzL1Wz(aG+mfo)cI-EiH=48A(sR?kWMK^sOZLF*KxY1l*(aS-ts?zk!G
z9i4S2F~SkUZ0xfriSvvFj}?oVhAz^&_lL;*FCLSk#3RG0f0>2$<JNmX4%2A}cVge!
z*03vhw#X<Q!#tCkSO>OVRP0)5A!qi6&gfag!?|@6-MT%Uv!smU`sSYw7~AM#E_63t
z#nD9<SvjOoCuP)pWWi`@Op=MqvY<B)+VljKTT92L!mXow1u7G}Zz;8l45{<!@hmqZ
zK(!`cd7E>>ZRLs!esNi+I$rT98D1j!PvnwjuicG)1Lu}N`t~;0o8>$8&mku&XFg&O
zu#`ZCEPAbzYY1_^;wqX`KlmxMkPIjAkEl`|n8d(9&hK!+@Cz1wVNpp%QCMiP4wB#S
zt3Xpk^;%`F5kxhWduZ=JKF;SAlKpIN(pT5SPQvCQlNU~WM&Svn3FPy#-110xu78XE
zGAPyJ8g!_#8NBhTTJ0C<6HyB*L9~-%Rm;d!j#H~#8mVJm*d%$M!Yi{p063=mj+cfe
z3N*?KI7<Avvl*R7G__cL?K@UQuvnsr$@!{PsZq7k?K@~0TDyvdbmUT#kIl`_t?H|r
ze1zCk_L~=?t!j!h(9cmH-oxl78`5pPY(@s2jk%5{q#Q}hRig)M0920HpK@A9Z|d!`
z#fFE}X8LdYw0=!Q4-mH2Idpss$zY`$eJl*)PZ&Fi7Yuq7I$md}Uv6d=t}Vuu@*;qx
zil8?)XSaI0cms>s@h2-P^-N{6#m11HoOFn4E-Kp01e4|?$die5El4b@nCw)YLoU*Y
z!+4w!v#=YVz_im;NFuk@h9P9{kG2s(HtpT=02Q3|M&%Igl-shtagBsUY@3CqO7nFw
zqlEdK?tPL-zREHMQc3;uk`UGmIXCUGip}}=u{Q{WF4tay&)IGVJj)E<(KXhd9t(Gy
z&_>5D2}a)^lSYY^X51c5$J=>RjfXu1d0QXrrWU`A1DhKE_Y&-#Sc?2qZxakN*hxej
zD#C+RK;c?s;$!!a<owyqZ)@X8q*`VOe8pHQ)b*-z4~pFey-}_QXgUN8dVQ`*xct_W
z5|one*&P&v%f5Db3#^k4ds;e%@!NGX<DJH6;a0QB`K_54gtN=-u1)057S3F1x7IKT
zp5rNb@AC|3@s`EgBlhE#DFXzxspkf$Dq$d;wVVQCGileC8aNrAfAv;R=}{i9vb7P}
z7SDaJ%ZZ7rHx^QKzPmbW+qSjra<93j1+KY8$BAIU#mBjf^Z~ht747`0{ew8A)pCg#
zO%zexvgr6f^f*I96BAac^$iVWltA-Dq-08EkPo}4jz8)0AH5Hv>>LWWvCcI6t|44G
zldqdfjNaJp0t=m_i|w-&@#Sz;Jw<GaH&(Qbo*C@0wwCv_QMlSi`WxDI$`e-N<qMX)
zt~MBLoT=?)#SVG3Ya&}6clmO~<FT?f^&3i-OQwewMX2g0)0I?ip6GXbXcx~l&KD|I
z<i64=Y<xQv&1OaE&e98dZ33Vy(+HjdG&{0RMq(WZECfqMYB@!nyVKMKLAaSoN~PtK
zGKps}C-=&bz2J`Li=oO)RK<!s(`T87G0rHE*Xct^6WDk159-3PTu-@P@MBifo1nB&
z3}(jki7L@|xS8pjn}C~Put_cU=DzF6R?8GT%}&Rgiq8bN7nhG#HLH0(E-w7cXJbzX
z&pW47u6jeO^5(Xp&Gd4nI%X`J*+=%K=1spU_s6#l-zaqDUL%x$@CNe0Y%0BT8v6@|
z%C?>@n=#$L3_g2i7MH{i89u=t<Hzl975SZo+rkT|-QQ{5vk8nV3!twd2`bJHI1LxH
zF{}OUAF#}aXc&d3$-@RYaD{E4R7t5@xpzL8000w1t(D#I8rLwpowA!*jfF_Mx~yP_
z+jO)0Vl9@<#H1-)l`cGvbxBJ;ZMXgSWPCfi=dv!md16~eMIgfqw85|Y;c0;B<P3j1
zy2Ma3=lxytDm0DFpae}N+;vXLj8@doDUwDVI>1zIqogHHK9mOC?&JA6lUxL?k;UA>
zTTV>EQ`^Z=!qrToJ(-(;*VSThKU+oT&&<}GVyE-@@o*r!yO4|_mxrH_^Dl`seyDC*
zB9gmg&Xr##0IP_lKJHcGlsP6^*mWkjr6GBxD_lT3wiDccl+w7Ynz%!i*Voz-XxTY6
zs2}5gexGJ~s2xvKAhzfN&1jEO>C&SWvgqCg?Z5e9oqaU5Yyt<h(gw`cG*nkz+$<`@
z=?k&^TQ(-B)uc__mb%iNok1oq(`dlDn%lv}%gvjQg-?C&FMTH+k738jK~_IdlC-NS
z)HS0pa(5f5<(D(K#lkp2N?W<l>1>txE>fEj1>{#m+dk;T%1`nHB9fPbIjRWvw8S)F
znsTw>yQd9r!43W<WoAkorR=lHOHoT9JG`1ECiIv|ZmlQXNEIg+ayR-stLa&r#RF^>
zXbepBRY|9Gb}M96rgB<HX;747l4OkLSc<i{%+U&)iza1f`P2)gle0`B{4>KU655nc
zCmBLttIK8tTMUHv*M<C^*TwI;D<O_p{JAR}^m)o&B>#UN#0<rK0@6%Kk|awWrP-=i
zjEO^P|F?11f=+&hzYQbZ?<UnI`))I%>pkAh?(Yom3Gwo)<O!f@IILDg)kWEl@j%Fg
zLJe%_LB2nwbk9Ue$Z%Xj+l7xw$=2V|Rzp75-WTI61jA3hF3}0P!Rwn`-KrX0lYdFi
zuRXNDk46v7z>*Y(0Mg9jz6NPW%+0^$JLvUG!ehS0yJS)Le986ACFy<X^;3l2jJv7`
z+oM_ZLobZZ#}<a9x`sdm&=jqSgNiU3kO+wkNuWeFkeLKX_FEvd!Sh*VH|t7MVEf||
zn}jyV$4oF|k*&XW{ld3_H~7PKfk)wlCc!Ong2RQFY6x&c3xg#oL^=Dve&ZWCXxgI1
zx(RD}?C_V_fkTYL&7!}arYY=n-oZSHwG|lM=?*M$LLoE@-C+m6ID{$3X~IO@aKToK
z-O)hmE(htCi5WU*UKS%>`K_Nlc~ED`1$FleQr0nD>LNqNg8t##>+h@E(Bfe|w8hzE
zMTF<tco+HVr~C4?|7jR8Hz>4`nwi}V-QE2h4$SYNv58F04kEJnG4#k2IK6ZP|KNZN
z9r)`1=C|NnU0CUDr}$s(T@P#%*BK8XO&}1U&;eSz^<>tNLeBTz{ju+iZE)-aQpI4B
zQ2vC_p6|}V!S<Q+nV3HvCH!rGsH|*lwrFToLz@Cyw|3gfT4g{;5gqBuKeb~8+HOM)
zFsKF!Fb($3`D4d%-A1C)Cix^=e(!zn`@Z-4zPr5d7u{WCBZXagd;h^NPZ1w*?3GQY
z*xR2T0*_qy{y#@{Z*8_5d8Rm6|Lm>ocQ+ghvg}8XD))*#yY>`L+4)M-t*0;FX>YEb
zP%}4c$tLdld%8<69KGIY4|dF~InB&C^5v1U&zEw1%QIunKJ?wCj<XY9zS>gDU;Rb<
zcgpS_JDqdj-&a4`^7@4d+n-o^a_-&0dy5YdHP&(O-1t}1yIpm=3Ht&|ckA7pVc8k0
zJFm}3a@!hAdDmKrR|%;Y*L%YnMw7%`j3g>o2PI;jyS760$KSk0Rsa`R2;OqN@#_z}
zr=P$ZvsdOlRPVle<yqaKJNi|tGLRQLH;*tT@q&zb(eo;Aj5476<SN2$RkO9oS=M9J
zDXF~3t9;C?d1fTY3o9fQb4xYefJJxh4{bWkD_V3587FWC?b34ZoHdG6v1V?iux5q8
ziMpBATyw+}@dy1#8y4~V0wGhxqT@x`Et$}7t((wcQ4w{8MQ76nutiQ6W|tKSqxGa7
z;sT&4^ty39Wh9LxTZoYWa0Gw^WO2xt0E-?9hxHyhYcBd_Rz#1f+)>hN5Vb72<*FJq
z5ky^GoxYCJ%SsIaIS#2I36jK-1dbk_rScIx5Sr4Xq)(4S3JHogsCwl9rs?I~a#*$K
zbef_5qi1EJ&~GOgR(w$_qCiMK$u9-e5CQd&=vR*Bnnl6nkrh9$TKQnm=M{L(3K0}N
zW+FBeGo;B2io~n35?yD%`RIZxq?H4EH4B=@KCe}gYx$5On~C0bOs6Ik?HxEh>cC)I
zng^;^^+^LQMa|fJ>cHNZeJv0sA0Mc(=pwi%dHAqT)mfchL6JkUN5x!nous&AZ$QOx
z%mbi47*w$;yX+4lMBHAVS6z)cWl^e5wSa;4qYD_|YR}xbaQ1l{^**lu>%xrExj)W<
zkUpBsdO`LR5k81w3<ky+Nt^6i&?E=?SV;gO4gpTGl@OX3gNbCP1JVS5nMja~#mL-0
zA}f`$?6bNmqAAJfMV}9QQc^-%ax&;-A>*|4$|k5mFnT?!zlkexlD#_a8-ggqlOu=*
z5Q5Y|1W~8SrO0AfkQA#8<&2wGF^4y#dVM}g!8kpwH(&(|y#Z0K3q5Yu&Yzh4{dOIN
z!s$%zd|&we=yiL2xuu;0(J3Z}EQGboK&itT4tqrt5IvCRSR)SH0OB+UDV&#h7Wc3;
zNAYf2Bmo_brqdZecVIZtSZN@n@&Q5W(<=&s2N)$I&M^ifPP+{>?q&hNDVk;_5>Onn
z)TcLYZc3bb0*|h!=yFc<U(e&#h?e<n9kB&}TNaSsw2>i!n}#b5*N_kxl5je^(r^t4
zfguT}v+KUWl^d%Fr2r}e>rlOyq~fGv6=#Xpr%DP@;?uUnl7P1KL{HsI_t(7~s(ayA
z)xE!Q0j=b%>m*K0pASxVca}ZgXrME5vyXOdt(^EuSI!UizB=*T$HTHFXI!{5>Oc}_
z=%F|RSz{`1)-}H0kO{|StZ$L?k9mG{aa+TP&z5c;cGR+e?Mt)Uf5KYSCGBm-oDa_L
zYgkgh`R2iotbcoA|4RX<`{dC^`;<BMGjm*Lj#pi3zB%gB@wcBUJFsWbjN7io`^J9n
z^MaNygiRF}cRLGq8kbF4+toI^cJJK}A9(UyW2--FT3J2J-qO<4#5JEG##k(;7GM5s
z+xU%t5j+#Bvuf95|8iu`hDU$DsHS87MR|5Ny!X4w^Orq8>2TY5-}%hZ8GAREPD_Fd
z6T_t^FfLy4hs<WeF8jj%KnSA=mm-N?0TrJZB&}8yxIwWjbyS%-uBe2i?ZCkl8H(7F
zB8H)jBw6e*6w#D{qij~Qu?RKn#u6iCrvORYZ3Y`;i)psVh#DMevsM$O0gsGv$fffB
zykLoPSynNqu_)z4g?EjFLC}*Yi^?Srv9JnaBnGQve8uwfZg)mze#Z-j(Pg7Y`)Ad+
zjcD(BVEm5pvqpyV#=W@V!8zbRIpcSX*2t2;tgMHVpn|s6iW*TQPhKvBhP>Rz9xI+#
zl9!u|L*b}2hmz({;whLkhw{}_8LEj>7tx6o^#2EkVl+WRJe@O`LqUIhqjXLmy_$@P
z8Kk9`ijB(l?qAYe3}TZ1*SQ#hlswvV=WqsyB2JT}0p}=>8>e~RKto7Nj9^T2F$w$8
z^aecvkkrjIT&eL%7)`^K07&X)8m`p%B#frvN&qBvGYwa2d=f@e!SxNf7#LT&+U0<%
z{a+e`8Yxmv*cCZgBuA<s!{`CzFp36xj$$whQhG>}7{hXU2&)Mvq5*hKP<sro0ckXH
zWHo{K0;CLMqpHfKkQ`P7DTI-l!E#i)tBCT!xZaB0#n(tyYaU{aWOr>IH6(@zqDngj
zMI<&JYB&tW%~~%7@(X{K&sT*Xv|U+HaOLHko33-m8r$bK?bx<n9<zPYwQH91j}#V8
zJld7NzP;g#lll48`?<I3>C*?Y7OY=;x%tf>{$uIl+aGVeIbp@rdzEK@x~FmF?vpp*
zVMFkE{_c*4f3-dD=Cxg|`<Ct6(%Kf@aOQQv^xI4(|Ip;&NB+95DR)fmR{Oke_0I=y
z6+dV5gEyb+%*^{_xN+0QKTd5vKz&~D##5)lf4VnyN5R-*qdtA@#rI#$7@pDc^U{JO
zBm@=5StaLYsQbpvu#C-4GAsja9B|lanxhdRW4F<um}5Cm?1*wRq7<n@R0|?#AfkfM
z7YZQCfWf2<$!U(QLZpphFndEWgV-C8z}~!bqNDw_X(w*n`}?~5?2gu1g=5D(odJHF
RwIT^haa4@~kj5BU^It+^=Y;?O
literal 0
HcmV?d00001
diff --git a/inst/vignette/figures/f02vign.pdf b/inst/vignette/figures/f02vign.pdf
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c8778c005b37bab8f9749a7ed51951ca0f8bf422
GIT binary patch
literal 65917
zcma%i1y~%}(kSk3fnWm!x0wM326qV(+$FfXI|O%k2~LpU?he6&1`h-$K(G)rkL2#X
zcmLge@BKYr&*`o{=ahC;cbzU;MR7@15E~~Z?bes6Sxhtt00^)*vclx&XP2|IGc|Ow
z^fEO8fY{{#5D+IPl>HTehg|}|#SP-*W><KEt3JWOARxOmKnK9X4FQ0GU_C)WOjA3P
zU$X%IVZ%i8a56Rfg$WGBL<9b@fu0cm+5mR{hJk?GJb#0MxVZiX<KTe)4aN!O{u>Me
z{u>Mo<mCKoKMu&>ad2^hK!5GW4F>%UFE<Cz-)M#cdBA@e`@|abuXsUVF3!L52IA!4
z`YX*K2#|~8uk%6vE*B64{5RgfQ0^xQ|4%uCp-{+QVH`jZ_h0$t0CGb9${QCanES81
zJ#q0jxo|;1pudfUa6tcxgX>B3f8~t}!t=L&K;SP^`wt&3PKK5?rcRh>Pe!ZqWUl}Y
zE_P*mdl$fy>;TH_GInP6fG5%ZIuzI82a14!5DB29h@=RV0|F8e1B;7`K){kbU<kJ)
z6e20e4+V4ZfW>%#5D`g92_Pp_^yyTRi$?_VG>Ds9f<sV`UD3(Z?U&^PfltPc=ImnV
z<nk}824bSo(n`FN#6<h6>0_dCJn8)3H<zTPjf<%hyQGbwi>bJ&vAu~Yy9@xt0e-sC
zKp+UaoT;6;i^bC+7rP3811c!!?BZl<Xp4zvv2OJGb^O!5{s9J|*$tQnM+Y!7{LIty
zI^YEZ;vfb_0>(YY9kB$lfcW$8P&OX2HJqMVS`y=XD)0UX<Z&zvy4`5QX!cLquSifR
zD{aCJznR<*a3Wiw(7^Y1ioU~C7akw&`L;kwJ^76s&;#>|hQtOF?dfj*1OFfQ^)JEx
z;U(lvT?|bOT?_%gm{Vp~G&DDrGc+=_aRxkT_YZ(G;7O}b$EuzVrtD%*oo(#R|LY{4
zEaTskiP_t^nA*8G>wuoj3ZVQXkbgD5=LY=p5x;=H)e87!QNPZfZo;Pq{A9xbWj%H=
zCwm7`dk>vor(94jHZT~#!wJ@7mp3)BH2kLviiS>482=zp+0@zI)yde@8Ss17Co6J!
z(hmR%{1@rJnENl?zq<S(1PKopDV1McpDa*H1q1;9=3P*bUGj;cCzz@#2mty`;nN}b
zNv*$#eLCa>fPNe1Q%^-Fdt((-7ajH|hs>^O>fypJWBY_oRF7Trm64UH@vmuQY{3AI
ze~p!~<p6N}7Sa=x6TtCXP=Zg}zg_QdbbpX1YUphGixPG*aWQcjF=jDC8%rZ6OLlQn
zXX7W08rr%1y6UV0{!NS?yM*17L0a0Gv&)z~$;Q&flU15s#ns5=m->F`@JSr@YIc^t
ztQG+Nt(1Ss=hrNMqTm;$|3tw{@&8cpA50pSb|QApmj5}Iv~+TI5wkFK0&oI<OYs-2
zPL>WX_D%rsZ_TsI8UE1&1cLsTJSSJv-)8pv?>EyLmL@J1&N>{xCy71nztjNc`t|?o
z#|7m6U+w?y|Hmk9D1ht9y>dOt{mJ(NIDfhQrym5&@ig}@wQxNdB<F9Vgm6Lt5C|B+
z_1kW_I5_~ET+pWxzpR)G!VTboKDEEC__u@oJ<rov=&u<$pYZ&ehvR9!CoE4e4&YP!
z<eYz<gTcS9K5_HZazmdedV+C11-V}>5Wv9+eexWjC)4-^eH!&d7dMFOPtp1JP4<U^
z{=pyp+Xr!RJ~_F6`yc6u1`R!Ha&8>o4TIXa#gGc=!l@8ti?x}C<Y2mI=hMkXcJ~QR
zw)iVl{@vzg4T%ekzRXA)0*P+B;~&SR?<}1zhCL%0vlMr?qh0ORhhOi>x%stZTV%K7
ztow3o$h)!iW)zP*MuhJAN@zY{)!XfMhaDXZPT8;dJhX6u(z`PK!WbV(iO_Ri0eijx
zw+la*es4$*Z;opQ`|%yi_nlHeEX|H?U;K<!L2M;9*qwzDNi=Zr1O-lvo#G;NI;w8U
zyw=uG!Wv4wI)?4#>@G_u&sHDsDaYi~SRsnCSC=xe5ynXV(DGOnkm6j3aO|=CU8=sQ
zOCdnJ#_IY-Tbqr%f+8trfw3o#+o_hE^r`Y@sp~D#s&1r>P@BblpBNh}T^MxP1`SD}
zh9rHqO%(Z%nRY4~<wy@q<;<W@3}e>wWdI)GEgKCkP@ax3!|Vv7v+uJB7cpB8k*2Oz
zQeQwqO%<y-247hge9@c_txQ268j_DW+O`+54tZ>Rk_|XPoHgvq`(taA4CGsC^(+gW
zRw-SOR*~I^B))`f{wp_7af2rY0H~3vA?&H2nvquL98WvNh-{;_yI(s)gimn$ZaRc3
zwa`I~Lh^gsAjpV<s?4VLi+B*%FzSLY6tzLcF{gMwfa$00J+%=-9URjc7AA=dwUKnk
zhO0W~fb*PUqB*J<Q59Lfc~t`EhKatTD(&aQgz5wOX+|L#6h&k#IA|5hIo#`Xk>u+Z
zaO~DXq6r0d_6r=DuYv(=(#M1pC^O_0A^?L-cJW3Gei(Sy%z!!LPYeKRqUWm5@szk&
z)CrzTh%bf*g-V!OJWti8uL$j_ZAE^^#kl%%70BMGz*&hWmrn#%EK(Bx(P%h_5x5;w
zzTd=k?h1nm;EY=Rb{lFcA2NjKVS*-I76N+NL+z#U0;;9=)7Ad+UfW`}vcSCv6M>YK
z@FYVm(Q7x>DU*MGW}1*!(cpulS+cek$f=M&*UEkNWUwZcN9S6B6qJ_Z^1@6yGq9nC
z{eTRU^H`>h6MODb)!L8M@eFalZv?TnB#`;_zN1YD4p-sN>bB4rbJt@fA!EHe>8!Tz
zAp65i$7*XyF}=HVi0ed4aYS70B3Dpt)zWcE6*OL6&)emVyxv_6hU>(;MJ_2WRpkEs
zDw6MQ>r8nQO0nLj$Mwkr3ewIl9WqA^1Wi*;AkqGXFPU(TFK6%$9Vf`SE`O2En9+{D
z1$XX*0yaVl@RD@W5L56X1E_l`ZD((LLZ;+dnddGt8S&buuEZs!Y0jM@-ygXKyj!^l
zsju_AaEivX!LfV(>9%7?or!D!M}qO}J48aKqB1hkJc2vY33uil!=REv;xWbcfbesk
zZ-kBb2z8`TneQEl;j(Ao5!7^ulk)VM4IG~P2JYAm1SJxd8)X!e5%aNffbUx^X`35n
zl`4-kmDkpzLiU?0{Cx9wBP7q(A6(V9qvbprQMi(Jjwm;is642$-)z5SQ|v&YY4w6J
z#WXLAR~4MWr<G|u7f$w^@&a9w3HL#l26@m#48*(Ja%8-|0dZD{E@3I#WL#3o+WHv;
zJOBh&vZk~c>0X?qpin;3+4{XbhvL=!GL3Q(#a3l3ufrTC9M#k082FRqn4I@JpFSPE
zuahWk9wlnG-O=2cv);+eU1gSHk@r<pu}@tqSY>G!D!p30X$h>H@9}9*#uBYb7a}Wp
z76vbvw%bqW&!kn=+4%?~DzPfh-^K9N=!;LwVCK;WP3s3A9yqctx%P{@_Tkc~_R{+P
z4V&>Y(4$}h22B{H=bGbf>c*|YqH0*Eu3THNEgt)wvAeV9*{02_{U2i|Cy$#4W{9Wm
z9?Lo1_eb-0_4Pv7-3s0&=Wpg#oTD@qY3AeO?+iQz*8Lx!>Dx0`t97d>YB&I=aQEoC
zhQx;iR$Q&Fo1;p{!lLkX`dv-kW03LPv9I5r3i@m^=Ju?g3a;zroOJWU8Bs=g4Svgd
zJ89r1U{t%$W)ZniLbSy}DdYR2+GiTe5K{r1-Qo4Hn|3<I&lj9@LkWun6Ajhn|Az;{
z-w$g4|4;(q;reqZQPq&GBICwby=J_Hqv51IbPuqpL;p-l?6|&lMcw+7TJ2sg&hS&N
zmCStvi?Yxo|KkrwUHYH**Hcu+DXo(W)iV;4bf$-8JLP-+{*-lY2VM|cQ#<Hsp}rNR
z7i;I(&BHpVXzoYNOM~x*n?aRYnPO|fg)DYqO>}!xL6l60qT`oWunjM>{95oQ>wK=)
zA2*p~<#ha}m76QBX?SIG9(!LLGSs*Fl+WtB2=2biyby}xe1_#-zn%kIiR6zyJoRN!
zX-I$X0vqo3l#xgW%KY6@K&M@9X=<fwW4MAy;O6?yqt{Nn9qX~mG`2qN!-i?U#WE6h
z<RK&H(cKST{Tw34X9yG2UVU4mH0}Gm-0ZVGm8H5n;D(oarNZ$C8K$IoVg!x4Wo<l4
zivz5y$iB@~>GX}9b}43}4J@;)ow}N2eyJ4?$p>s(C>Y)gY;95GG?kEiK2<E<prl=j
z$FP{Xee_ps>v|z7Y!)<bYQ#oJQ-T`XrZ$6n%d6}oBu$VRP3bk40O^V9!SF0h97goC
zVSi7p6w)Jxl?KsWI9)$VcALV22^jyC-9VpKere%vBvF2N?ju1Om`8V7?FIskZnFHF
zF>6SCN+v^j_hzV~JPARqoFq95U#NBcNXKV+P|_LU%2w2eQ7ohcaLd!&#s(#Ar?sqw
z2XMYcehr{YZ%9{Z&bI{?G-Pmj)e^zt;)vvGgw9dfNPd)<PIZheagPEa%n7^A%r1AT
z$rRG<H098((89i)LxcAyxU5+ER2klbG4TRkc`CL8LEI*~U;l(oda{3k?Q!7}gSQPx
zNUkvI!A?!aD{!1nSmIX%P02^n;Nln-Mc=N%EvQL5#X`xQ0|uhO>L4{Zp3Y&M78E^@
z&PcHmV1g$f0?oWIx%$gO9b%j-U!!>hm{2map*i+U-dHL|%FJDodwznjBkfLV!h21e
z(H%nh?5C(A%=wkX(|1QOHj;U-WZuijF!uuLqHe)rio>&`KOy0i6)Dm9ea)PV{gED)
zCbWP{WBUm;V!kwkOAR^@Z)m6qkYYKc3lrMRPm!nT793>B8@?_Rg>&L=t20=4iXh66
zC!Y9>rMPLPe`T}P8x689g55C$ztcux7jV|S>2~5CqcCLHJ+`5{WFuYnDOhc^Mac2+
zjh>V1-h_izRm#U~mX}))3R|Zb3mHqDNbi0OZf9)dX|{oiXRIk}<^tS|GdU*@nIQtZ
ztulQjQxeYCbM)KE3o19tD)YJRC0F}s3d56{10ohfvv4m@VasZ);=K_{50m<g+J%0^
z_Tj~ve#;q9=NE07JT$B~jh1u}3*(aOeNJr3B>zUF6QxK37}5K6_3cLv!w0=DI7lZp
z`JGxeODL<?lA(B)sAGyQ6qjxd1ok`u4VXowb)*&Iob8;pJGU>Xjd2)ks^UgOUefWW
zrb{y=xUceJc*}}i<0(*ZeVA&?cz0!LB#v4ml?w}Q<1M%iaOdJzdA=!kuqKN7l@_rd
zg^O3Np0@~0KVru5Jf;kmgy~aeKf=A4iz_Xz-I!|Q<4D4oB<Fz!1I+HcdjteVDR}7y
z)>7XdSN_Tn&4kjkHN9`@>|2+?!8)hwa~jlqoumltsd0+-`4wO&-2o`Ij#<S(0SAR+
zj0nChP9250aK(Ljk@aG_S^cD03%H*Z#2H6V%ZM!Ua)s;j&a#`=RLAKTc|5Djt#i8|
zmf3_0*oP9{x9kQ!jWCSGJVoCVf{+W$hGH!4){sPuUeWIKd^nzD5|mc_@x#HFAHytW
zJ(kqfTZ-;`AiUjl7Vaz@pU`G3wG;+B*H?|Pcdx;zpBGPjMkV)$mKi=A8+KgPN_jb3
z&R$?GV3u;C)M(woXSQu-gK6renlCu$4mTwtOTL<dSzt}+`eV&75WX&8m^WldEVKS(
z?Cf;(1x{o=;_XKh9oO&0yk`2=N0NK+b;>Sq7H)x+qC2)*(7?#(eaq&9x{!g<Xv5{l
z;TH95Mb>WpT$da}pNI{Tq+?pa0Uz?DQrnUaY=3*tc@YwxVr}+5KJ!7HSJ7WOfcNs-
zU*fuF^oOd(8VKpJzcY_!eD$|5n^x~s90*+i!1}`t8si3FOO^2HQ?l4q(|)J8H8-`e
zk4snk1~JNQ`C?RdGI#I#dV3G&bhf^;c&>W(E$*Sa-g_yxY94!^HT3b);oZ3)TaRfE
zTUG1vUP~W~kFv~6U8jjrKDu!f#9wOYyXzesrf<4o;9=4?`5pc#w*9};HvfK2;^yG~
zb8Iuwkcr)f;B+i9U&5jpC2pN#boT}*g_Q;U^mk+_J4A|xEg_TuXOOhkO>o3|Ho4w=
zHhRXouA1*%^O%3;dz1IJo-(Hb#&HrhFT{(@&j8_6W5wJ>x_@`7!oVCOV4{&iSIe9n
zfu{rJIs4)D(zms+Zf~+LU&q?Nec@U8cGC{8`d)WWAa5nL;BNam^6e?KNd9e?nKbDt
zIZV<XcZ&92K~4M2^n@CWuJZ_rPjmg2&f=FlI{8lT*#bjWA0Pau;hYZHS!q38VlN)^
z>A<F%we7~kg3qqnPMrsosxK13L6Wc$2i{6H@10O!{1D=cuS?9WK4S&y2%k$8^VKL_
z#zqZ@Y@JI+#hs<pzNa1tnjLm&aqvaW+~a~dsd<ANN11=eip`#pqTxFIok|mKmPw>=
z#ShU!w1PBnj(406Cng(<4-jCQ6Ds=t<W!Qz(}WXewD<}=xVv=wcopKIcJfBkLMf)J
z9O+9j#2!r&C!phQ_dQDXJB-LF?98JIC7=aDJp4zQa2$`w74fC5bW3&P5%{Y)G<u_S
z11rj8FkT=?7w1efqFv)Bq8GoF=w`h4PJ}OKaB?ARU3_n<<Hz^~<&i-$i)Kue``+dm
zJeb<K>~lI4>JxF4L^sCme54lx-)FL5LsiAqTHg&nGreEv_q-2=DEs`}|Fp9BaRlS*
z>e&t<_~eX~3mLHe8RKwB-K_Tr8C-2DF1CA)2~$J*!K-@1!Zh+TOkLX$_N`WbL@pId
zuz_Q*^!Me!Tf$fZln@vVv~s7sH}6=e0v*sYX2Ch%Dt>bFz8<Jf*-7s;(7Y8Q_^{5)
zvhZ5*-ZtO?P2|j%k7q*}&Q*QRuWmmY1I_xRMs9uR{ag<>oGHdI-@)LF%8fYELS2op
zd%)W*1l$CIt<!xWk<WRxbu$Mb+!Zo)r?0*k^ZT#ZY+04ym=q<$##W-`q}B44x*wMi
zIN-e~>J!T8^8$BO%wliE^%dPp(EJA8PXyR9Wi6->?Y>s^dqKv_sy;z)y{B-H<6d=G
z1x~lFXoJaGOc6mv=!T8pvN5^S(n3*GkA>!xvRGcY<#=8YudrlGNzgsCw{aM7c?+aS
zg!oO2`!r27k|oxcTMO>U*jlaGy$X6rnxPeY?;BG1?Ey|@-{h`uB8k;n1BC1zP)W|#
zn@57#l!fW_`4bzD${H+ln*~#XTYc}RFoWwIZOlOVLpu!;9>U&^uscSDH$$CrtE!9D
z8jTyMX?cl=`c!Soq&MM;6Yk~a_G!#_ZvIl}Uqj}v3b@`r%Nf$KlRzd;$lgiBdL(UD
zunt!Hep#`C%Tpdp78`zz{*|riMplntpq_8xg=d+nS_9L3ZSj4Tjr!(%RE1VMQ54L)
z0~RaSkI3)t90$E-drQZa8<p3Do$8lahmj}mMsKH%su#PZ1laB?_SIfSPcm99emRZv
z``Izq7D;nvw!{+4HepH2%&zi2_~3LdSGbUrT)(b@07vVPLxW)wCTK~G(6qQ*NaLe=
zos$|Zrzr~!gFzb;6;D3i+ThCwow~lVwB+vuc2l&)tqU;62sj1G24Dt(2;n0Bpk4G6
z+2%=M7%2bn;5)`yF)&UU$!-Z#vFv1H%jZLWb9g%v_Y3Yqc8_jRned=zGQHt2I-|gw
zd@p?`HuMQ6+P!AQBL?V+QOx3=3$cw5f_B^BZBwnV+VFrfLlKqo5{#OiUY;Z=m0+ng
zb1p)8${@#H7&ekPalR842jW(HkA_ignJmtUkDD%kR*<oCG~kv{P+o<Q+nN}K@TW3I
zl97(8>ze0<h}f{YS}OJiF9uOj5H$sR*yQo-s{1z1v|ESE#LP~H0IBz@d>u^1t_YW!
zvT>)1!BJX+T6x#(GzI364Ek5E>b`_2!G;OEm2@HBCpz}60jG>q4p{9hZ6XcV=c^(4
zU{g-aOdrwk&@WXbv<$ew7=qg{uUrz=Xj5}OsS(S5B?FQ59*<rwIH=y^&3T7wH#)Q)
zJs(Ba)mV(%PL<i1e<2$i=SK^>q`q_R)&oBjFA3EOr7pb6el1SCIjKR0-MmQ@T`Pqq
zR2WHDI|F`wMqDxHz&8Su6(5%EfZHkuHAK-?R&)LI*x|DyhUQ#g+7A=`<0HF40HS`z
zoc>O>bpGK|&1;xRXgpVMK0rFw3yB~WY(qKmp`$D@Lr>Z4IV&jP3aaYez7cnt{StlE
z*;}8G9x^HhU{*p(qVGP($naXgVWk;*=Zagj0oYe^JW35ix~&&pUlaJ0@Rd&|(ExF<
zf1cx#s5?IQCf#9se|)*peC+Mw+1sah7}_c_{!j7nS9bBA^18AT%n~ZfGE%1Ywx%vl
zmc}Zcwnp|g&i_p(|KF3mP|#nKyd1wWo67%9@;>$WPYU|~n&X8)IRBjA{FR#iU%Zrp
zIsP2DRi6Sk4L455HS-}n3xWGNiC++Gf7n9r&u*U7qM}|H0knki=v5Wp)#I1G8@9UL
zLcXiTFq7VFJ^uc;ZHp~4`|bvdQ4U{x#_u+70@1;K8}8Qvf);}AtGX~Z6cbkJxL=RZ
z1+V!_k7($pJ1!Pga1vjD$b589aWVMjo7#idk?zd8bwJx|y?nwK>%zc=fYVe~WG0{H
zAm#2OyoR-$QIFPv1ARQz(cy?`C*o!*G^oNIUat*j<|lWZFJtJj&l}99qZ>wb*p;qk
z{hsNE0CF0=MUVQLB{M7#ikY~qk;3Hq9T}h!O{@|4MIapOm7Ypzb5vH_h_|muJxi{D
zl3NDbkAn`~FEZoYYeuev`g0^|ZJ*aOcjFgu1!P%7p0ZufZ6<Pgw4|LTp854<4iCNO
z!?`f+R7sEXY@dyPmM?vYBVf8g@v;eGa-WNatca`$A>ZFzYFbz@<^2pP*BG7ZH$kZM
zYMp?!IA9WLZik>w^gCcNR_?GOnP}(DkMpC9d>z{MuD6zRSX$Z+z3({~Cx5LiX+y+>
z`r3T`SvIU|7DkuC-NPWSP=BmtGtROwM?(pTxX>p-HkSAI;;k^>J-XnVTlC>Ij_PtG
ziW!)`kTy>fEgp4tg-}(Grk$KG2)Jf1Np3e)U5-qJT2>2vcEDh<mpXxdg$kXdhr`7=
zm&_uj#YRPSf1vI2>+-;E>Eh7of>B3oJOG+-WxI>w>EtE>_jZBM<8QZoSc)at!t2L?
zMQUbi(Dm};0PX0tp?F-|Ge?Na!|jEjfOu;3{()EXS670rwVE&AlooeANluriJnOPX
z&?~eS&PH_uVSnD-9PM>88(=@~R4^Jdmkdtc+};&e8wjBe8O$>#GFdn9iDpRd?pK#_
z?C~BCCY`ym+9LV2s?dfu>#c~$Gu?cZNu`rtkt;M{(py9+j%gH9Sb_B}?_-`QPEH97
z7!49ngHxYMLy-MY2W7?={B~T^tgH@yhMz>k63b-xY+S1TFt)l_^MQSMTvkG!$9_+P
zDFl}}4v&GbQCU|jj8MNy4Cn10Nqd><?SzKGn>;K_Gu?C$Z6ZJ6M8_7(OH=UPn8VB&
z4pd{;mx8+Y;j@MjRi8m7YhNFGcgtc@XPLzwgVn=!QEL#p8gH54IK-!Hm}~ZGzMer%
z{`tKt+y0R@&4>pIeFrub4rm|^i*KGV(iWN85~d!iwqs&jgr@KV2J*vNXns<8z+ku&
zOSy9PDvN1PQO_=^BZ}f<?l%e3lg;T^uok~ZtiX>ht6h?pV~zy5RI$g~W@|Q9tX?Ko
z%VVDo;N;)1iexR+j3J6%uE@MEe>v@IX?Tjb>o<6-+AOk@MU_cNmq!{zg<jvXS6X6Q
zCS`F$^a$5L53?Dh-@hY|Uu|uUcB|aLsx|*675pZp#3~LeEt6@=`<cBpCGo4d)R8!R
zEB=tAuq>IxAeg?~$+kY~hlU#Dmqr`ZhDFf}+|G*fv3&tu2vlVunyeYdHPRTHYqh!_
zlswpaK0-~_LY}KIf_nsl6!eUlbWE2mh+K_nN^9GXDK^<2n8+2AB|zCrIKaDXR?*LT
zcCq;E3Ataw)#2Z+(}sVR|Jq^}801r4Xw7Muu+YXF{zbE1WszX#L<^2u^^=?wj_3i*
zu`tkeUfQEA!fDy@xuEbEmTZQ3Jm-A{9rU;cyr2lr+|rO4oER^Agc2^-Yi1>3hS7pm
z*>Uuyrze>B8N-7VVHjUu(~wpcBjNg*JRb_~fZ?e#n`g$bdJ8<&YfXSTpd~iST!1Zz
zae#tl{p9+w1;2eaKXT;cL@xk`YUQ|yA@OQ+I?5J&vxjtDj<d?;YGm+YwSyw3w>z-q
z914=rb|9m-f=uFTJqYI4XbB1mRWNPN4w$CCE|m|=k|k=T@`U<@eM4sH#Pe1<)Rt}G
zj0qrXN-w=2b8dpI#@!}0i1V2E88HfqF`1N<95YX<@~uf8oROGKYrXoiOlx3@8Jl*7
z=azLanxUHuBMZO^3soBW?CMRLY1NvIfe<=3ex}>UL(#0F9F_5N804$8eq*DN;*PeG
zq>BNk-nN@Fud;&R7H#)#imM=aS9+Le=hG4Cm`cF7njIYSEcVW21(h<%#lmW+w7J4M
z-gU+s;)TPQ#h-8(Fnogi-v1Ov|Fnqy|5$y4aDx6Eohmijt4z3X#`l=X*m^;JLNCMv
z0Mx?LG`Kib1Nu~S0Y9<dmD^2?<0XAv<88WI(-T;fc8rc6i!Bc6w$s>f#EWYo|4yAA
z`lZA;AZ~?Adz^J!drNndil4|KN@hkf4spsl&XuR+l6Q-tkI>2~rxsf7mYM1hQ6as|
z6pLQG_zCuB%Y)b5rk^ZTY5L2Suh_5IYnv30Vk=50PU3XPyu;X=)A1@h{kwc`q5jT4
z@n7A%D}8<<w54-q&s-9FcdLHGIt#;-?7Uh=$Y;slYLw|ICKvVo*oHobeq;UA1LwqF
zcq?rMaqN013|A+oEzM-)H1SP3y~*Yw$_nQMZ-8s@0!0<BhNxdI@?vy*6B*8R$Iwd9
zC!(sUbnD#eDZ)*Cj-E)tg)ARpt??0~OytYsN%U~SL^*u_n~7?(_DthbW18vVh*Ra9
zoxAD*352etlvilTs*8>2Vl9W|KdX^wPfGb_JNk~^`gg594($wNqR{rf!NbYbw8nZ%
zc^jMf9!0Aq-mu~{9bQm=UdJrOOuZ#iuQ5iIGsVk1foev+m`|&2q%hO0cAvdP+qG$l
ztg^u<jANgY$YnJMuOjfdTzP}-_r4VLYGLx+xB^j9yh!*QvEU``_o#HF(Jg~rF6&`$
z?Q^fc=ot22)I(uzyg%$8bYh}9!H13*y208d4@~(`DQSE#^E1OYC~lk0(8zj)ITApq
zAtJPragQX2Y@W2eSZahW50Tgp#*le6$f;I6J~y$dU(6wiy(xj%FCS7Q5;&``h@YgN
zDjPf>v9~e<hoYL41<$QMdt6I)cVx6Dkss1@(3e57x?JT=*lRU(__>_HDHAQrk~eQB
zAt`kfeO3yCH6TU?uzFtPmD6D;@@af}PNlaen#JL2C4HU1P6BRIwuVfv(&*DxEOoJ2
z){YE?vKe1V>QyAZZvVt6d#O}8Z@A`Rp2h4ZnY0K{8p3<=O%q&QWN-wbB@qE4ZqsJ^
z4zdkqp!?wD1ovmdrpi6fZyMjT@t^s7IcFcQW{Zip8-9_{tf!p}y#Fetp%(Iqw12Q>
zo{~%>but+i!qd4_;mY^;;%Vo=(CKX|5{G5NWz_+^ZPDJ!U2Kog`KsBE^>)}k0oG+v
zt>(QJqJn*_SyHh=^_xPU<<~_ESCp$OM}o+Eb1Zdp0>Ol_Nuy1bRtc7*eM`!|hX}!s
zxo!IIPeQ%XS6NcJ3JJy(yalRH1?K8kHAGR9B94YLZA0c>eM^-ZLxUYkJ7*$mS>zK)
z6PBm^{5^HO0=vH2Q}}M~UN}MX`|XU2s?v|qMjv5f)s~zvk1SW)7<<iKx@UUx2}c%e
z>(eDmVG|$cT-tMaAn4u#NmkPcR@&#*n%rr}YC>~e#CYBvO&kh{Q8bXTTL>*|y}Z0>
z$jS;SpEEmgK5dbi|HNdt*LS%x-^kM9dd>1uU26*tHzjt+1rNve&5~KAgXyLS#bo|X
z-b!WVYzGk0kB2dcj-!{@FSxdSa&UnE&SU0N#z}?trd;CW{nfMg>RyGNz0!?mIXm>$
z7kXi@pV6`ia$~V>a`K>ZWuG9AXe-orXD-)g^U;4nRIxo57Ne?D7|F!f%}zT-37<1_
zeO}PlubnYuL-|!QZ;uWI$IqVhe5jZm=;{>S(ELmplpEErzXYWF_$@<TM^*E=T?CIM
z;#fj2i~W(Ori&Fx0b0;eG37Mxu*V&F$@Q34aaw04?1fh!_LoWA)N7<n>RO_b`V$^k
z!(<*`g1igxtR6P2%|Zlzvh>{tq4HV!yKiZ*>&MOzHIFbKH;=m4jhe;%9K{_4qgO-U
zrN#7$fj%#jCf>9iI_}qyhiuJwVa(eP8g;$N0CqU>&jFW`kK>7Sg;W+l?O|xuo@t>Y
z4R?nHy5!GuK35|^yWq99${Aa;6zl&AB`Z00IFqxST&<UI427rY(|PWqA2!i6!Li;5
zq|`t5aXfMD;x#62a>1e*gT?8%6gU(kD-bz4o@oLl-oXyl8jys=BKZd-i|OlhOWA-8
z>6{Ud)+dNROLXIpW$Z0GR&uqmrn0NQh{;x);<?1|TalTXl=1$dv$db>IY~lEO=!oF
zL;D@rMtu%qaci*|uvQvKZrsPTh3+k4#=PK}6KTd0!`?X{fgdU3WmO=Pfpz-ckTdT_
zm@YX~hY{kBNDSkcA`tOU@#@zHDgTSNDW3oFwTOv^Z0tZ2*3%N7Pasicw@Y;PCaehi
zOw_7>(yd~y422n}s!3ewMTNA#{^>^*+ePmp^(ywy(w?YQPni+#-Q=H9+Ey_Zm7Ec6
zJ<`PwUW>EXw-;B#N2kmN+>ht;C!xN!Uz6Rt9<S%8cv?#$f}ELxka%tP8W1GQHG_~z
z<iv!|4HVix-@q>_Q!cg_Rq2?d2i9h$c6{JkJ8~p^hY~GZ6PUv>O-;PqtlZ1|HjKmR
z6*tyF!-SaR^C*YA_(7aLjdl&YTcd6i=kjH~sg>eRy}*eTHWInv6UbqtY_X%K(#vwq
z=-GYoGTn~8u$h@5#w;C_1fCwBQl(&ee3Fk;`r#<**KX^h-_FM-_rJh-hgi~ilzbiJ
z+BsWIwX=PQ-^{sRW?~k;d8l&F1jhbQ_7+h}zp0qN^@*pS0&;JYDNH(wFuYV6J|
zom&yHVr9`r&$_NU4=uSo1aHzfpJO#E9kedf6%Jm_b{(VW4E7IV5Z%l;wPoqI^RBQO
zKxVh*F=$4qR-hWVl^d*;8xk5Tg7TmjvC@6HOm#IKpY@ETN&Hu=V@RZ|yirG9ik@#>
z0i>wC2Y95WEA%#YI#j(1czl1nrY!(&eXVJdYjDr1<jjS@DNxz|<eoa}s&4CPyvf>G
z>kZfJmC47!T;)g(MLom4-{hVs#$93QKGqd~!@_RzQqUosXY%<=DJ^v0-W9rir%*=q
z=r~=Lx;xx}J42xhgbH5oGvc}ivL;zW-8B@3#n8_%$CTVbx8e8f^9)L4(*%UWDrKKD
z#1{^Paa9YJ-sJo8*9AtVOR5uJoITSO!h;{^I4jk>MVGgfhJt|&XPzsB^T-g!m(V(O
z<1>uhjPT(HCPUw%XD`;zKXfQLTpI$;`!t1uS>llJ)Dg=lA8~l-8YO5L^tBV2x5FnH
z;yU~X=E>LnB|5bI)PwfavYZu*56SMZsF%X-YT~U6y?UVpYg9#?#}-nB#--J;J7+;m
z))xc}3SrO5NfU{;*KcP$=lHGqc?Y<#e7SFC=E$C3vG&aoWoe*3AS|bia}f-w6&hY<
z<y+=^3tSXYlzYTi5HnwJxv<1+u0NzxfGyTiZ^<MfjdfP9yz@(EL`UB&f8d|!){9Dy
zD|eipU8})Pr43%gd~Q!tXC&nHh0r-R^$q@QV_cpIl8uB_;J1r&QQmqBA!b+u5dszh
zu?$M?dKfcprqIa!gzK)d@VHxJ=7*f&un+C^??bM`X}>lpuH?@+({Fw&7DNhk7yzk&
zOj(VfMQnh)Vh>;~K_*PI+sRMLmX{0siU&XJSr<MVg?jFztGU&?to-Z{7Z|v{OH9F$
zdnHe$f;P7z5Rk!p)v{Wj(>66W!GBlv4VCNpPPh&W94+AlD(Tl}I>1~K{^6g;%C{Yr
zoOorYQJo3GX;Rfj50337Y*y{-{L4b?$1MsETUViPaZg_36&vY2@9Sd6q@Va$mbu^d
zvcHXBN6*vDaa~|d6Z+a(i2t^$=SUu4@E)^Y7a}0KI)5pKRjfQ8a_<>97c%gni02bJ
zb_p92*4m57OAaRAABUfrUM1(&8_zy$0pEa0$u>tql{+UmyF|(Rv18>{5z*$3qGMoe
z1vp9ZD$}X-LRWY(%|^)eVTUAy5|*=bPj25X#%l%*WYkhba|IkJ=X}A4F(y;MvJ%WK
zmVk$)ntllN5-Zu>yhAvBJ8^iJ`OxSu%dJ{3X3WF(!m%eqi#v@8+w|Ex-dkW$n=`0y
zNgn+kCvU#&5%y#ZOE5LkMKmEp;^UefrOGv*_}fgY8%%(zm_hk7g$&g$I^<;<ag|os
zGN)|$>J>{{m09doao-#(PV=u><!v)x_&?6PMH9~c$uoVn#A-a?%X8HFfNmm_1dfq!
zNfkmhaWKgAyo@G<X(qI<gL-h@gyO#1<Hh`GEvKsDtQ2!*TKmRYP6K9Dou=l{;Nxkj
zDk9M!X`W7LOii3(>JElacrTOE_E<5B0arrb=yw{6fbTj!K$M{&n}Aznd2c?frgzK5
z?3@78U4Wn&@9vF03Rd7M2M&9O?yT^quOd<l&k*@r-K%^Io%S!i8S8{EKq4fl_#@11
zwU-F`fR)TeSf+l&V+VfP;s>|y6h#45lZvm46YDsS8yUXQcB-~7LKLvhl=|U`K9ZmH
zgk+VG=H))V!H+LuGw&8}0r9$%#eRj~59sv}TP)(0Rbh-baXEl5lH$_;i2{Vlh~_=`
zr?B>?&v^eIuVLK(^EJ#x16swxjWK>l5Q*7P>H8sv$7LIy-vf31)3+%fZw<n-+-rE_
zfWUGIrB#{tBpT?Qg93efjp~)OmlQ|f2BeQO>#>B%G^wW2FmDB`bGC?0z`oX@`d{qq
zV`<&ah#lWgC!NOdJXhMQ6{^lLhC7b#40)zRB3}P35)b`*s!Ws4I1ehxi0gHFaO!tS
zVn+4%Mmh-c8>K(q^F+V&s{XWrLDz`mER!Ii(TnD#kOX@TYXYw|v@{rO&@dQ3&0YWv
z&-_}?2#1hdAZ#h^5wKBhP~|U*h1yLvDhEoN_VAwA{8D^ceH2PSqZ)ZH14EwmqFcVG
zg<&9Phkf+Q)AXzPa&F&Rj(*|m>pX!{l1=@1!`W5MQ%&uW4`i-U)aK^=Tf3=S0Ua+t
z(V>tDzLoXh*%m!^z{L_<)3v=DqK0+jILaZNNTG^h8)mFIXXWD=ciWD92h$ntZeOeG
zXB-D#`k7jvN4$jv?UdhB>}<d7jC`GSCmh~Ytjvsg=1n<g2qtbHY}T4IA2ikHM-xL+
z8MF^>)dUhAOs>DOUy%kNLtqFBM2*%99Ye4LIA+umh6yASVt;CJy%UHp!OakoYs$2+
zGDcs5xein$oJK$jHs2VCkn1UD2}^b-x3>3c^<cv3(>K+$S~JrX*6;(Rk0!x$Uj{R&
zIsU*4CL4@lp@FegdB>q*brl7ZFQQ?!CLvK$z|Zrhl}Vgw5-DxrYIl^`oIe!S`y0s9
zv~gLNyDf`*()jg&{`)Q@=Mjir+y~A|zRc%ION)uaOfmS{(A{iKnTzxnCQcA_NZ;T)
z`v(igG1w|&_#earY^=603RUKNaMum+`4VGNw&`)y#m1hY@<A+k9v_=*a|+8d-_`rY
zlz(UJv$MguMvhFPmftyGdY9usK6*b+@=Uc2lP!Rrj$GZ_EU<#1{6$Y#M0oJmnq*@H
z7FDtDS3!nyexH5_ON#~AJ`?vu?h~3GrscoPpQ>JI?^1eZO^+4B`nfeTRE$+2Yda$J
z`RkBl-X>kXyoMYKrl9-jL-#vlKjgFo_Z_=_a@QjWaqI%ZCRlzYZx`NCc!C9QBw$9Z
z#jjcF`8Vr2{NRn*rlbf#1`G&Cq4@`lA~rM#is5!hzPu*6TOzh+#CC>!S-$y)=$M_h
zeCx4YVWU{S=;t5VcO}Yk!IPVoZOMw`xT;t2vv@xg8JN$LGP&m1d;DwTeuQKJmDBU%
zJ%%@gCEj=B2QQXmTcGSCv5IJXOq<w#c$4<hPIiCj(NMYlWt$Cs7t-<G)e-h)HFF3e
zvkk<UZu)qC#eT8+QwZBT6G!<X`a}Jb%@s-%e=JV191o5Y^j)ItGIWvlrJ`y|f4})}
zvm2u+CbruCny+TzVG|GYStakrey(2UA^|0O=z;#(2Bom+c=L$9nyBOa0dzrxM;C9}
z^T>AQ+l=3{K?q41$|i9623}Xf*B18v^d@;7Z^BHZ(ukTc0EY5ul$*@LHEVvXiE&L$
zncvGVTX>F1g*|s`wl{CAy$2%-8r1izA{&z&D|>lMHaiDQwG>oiO0c3!tja+%wroND
zY6peolKHZw`uy`o`aUy5`Kc+~EMhPD?nlWEj~#Gu7f%+K=t44X<x2r;)sNR+R1&J5
zCe}Ft=`fwa=9m(1uNvTyQVmd-?d$~ec<Pt#pL>uq5~<hS#xUaR1`^<m3{mVh5WSI`
zK)6^UUg)1j%j>!kM@b{=oHvZEg~`N#lJ5YL4BunGDt<xKwx7cJXgLNeUW$&1VXG#U
zQ$?Y$xQtIATq9UG%pQ~y*hV=PSy?17zw$9hmfl)*Wz$<Nz;rCNG7L>F27@xK(G1YI
zMCTr3B@)*&lp2G<w4yl%OZ1arIr6xq)!iiKNWBJj9B=f)W>ALfZI{ic`e^M8AA?sV
zf!LHvF=P0hOO&Oq5PKRoQz)H*%IQwc5C4%D2!|Z)KY>(M*V@w<H3TLcrYUvV>0yPU
z2y|+Mg!KzEFL=0QII^KU*j+H3#kcTz7pD0GA2K6-au;rc>|>A(Aqg5b<BMNHyv=oI
zJS^m{(gRcKmZI2EKDB>J?Nkw#Me{D%7LIe0xEawq5`OC&zxd<)9$=}ixr#Pd89ng)
zXNKX6vYUX~xwfV2x*<kysAK0F>yk#f3qZOg?~bMCU~MjkTeE9%2G^%T?-O$@fdJ!*
zPHeS{Tvy9XI|nk)@>s=`Hx3;I8EcQI74Rjqwvw^*m68g<1*X9)cL;P*Gx+u8@vnI3
zWAbzeyUN&LRQE>k;(0`v$T;u^79|*W9nlJ7y_}3yqi9~0mEdm*J$=o&SRlyz4>9p~
z-NOIkRS*0>zUHjdSg|9M!0~-sy)Q)yN~-E=4vxn&LJdb4(85I!8PU#0UvBKp^AXxp
zy|Qs*O+;a2U+0~jcZKTd%_}&f4yJTSJGL_p(lRrBP<$!wn1`mCn#aIO@s6#Fq|Yx8
z55usGwG2Zs{7|^Hbta8Rk=CN0TD9E3ByS;nMpyt>O~UhRI#~h(00<z%DE@qilTVP!
z-_#=$)9;bLlsS|;s%k}Hs7hyWgy-_U><UuJIfSX26;x@&PGH%Q6m^_@_P&)UI%?Gt
z1tmdjk||A+WJwfhV+D0nLt|{K74f4E5Jk}9b(vDC<WfafzR8|ALHKQ?%liz_4pSB}
zr?miTUQyN%g;z{883P#Sejei+X@4N^T7ZKN2MoP%TOt=4RYqiD?%SmrAAW1hckztb
z-jobXOz^dEd_gLzF7nn`?+%`GFhvuZ4#KEIll;XPSw1#h3ipg_kX&}C8MA$OT?14A
zXwkr(-&e?N%^5Wrm1$23|F~0tP!z5cs0tTE4K%o+!HGD$%WwEhpV%ob*o=Q@S%pqm
zOWF$Ka<QOlmn=rQ(L5`sZC)GX1r^Alu%$a4xEL_IJ7Wv&)0U>V)OfpQhMlAF>8LZ#
zu0F>P+V0_fwRgNWFJx~wHAZdDz1MBmm17bClFCerrC#FCZJ}`-UYcs=UfjzPDnZVQ
z;c?7L!)HRb^eXo(_YpZV$b1P*A$fQa>Ni!OiNZd~=C`VwyH`Ioe^a}e=<`ssL+hcq
z7sr~bci-T7zm+XAX?V~Yfk&G+(4gp}diQu^Nnt_WdWr8|8|r;hFnmxps-=Y8La0_C
z_ST|h`R$yDDzZ(PvJ$<?P15qKRlnMd$4t@Lv9zMC?1AIb@QM`bs>Yh;P<_uu<to|8
z+rWvQ;x~M%g!MW`{zC~FaP%ll?3=vq4>+Vc8wnFdSJ`lQ9HdK`7UE}_NVf>t2&-Xj
zyb{;aaI(AGoQG?d_Z;p)<2p0m34Hu5o_Xy@2T*lKm5&Cgx{e!ZIF4zj`hhSlqbxM1
z@u-5Knq0(;vJ+cPcL%-PciR*jTO|U%akw~g@LR+hb;9*_3#Z<ze4L9*Uc?J+Nk-Qi
zJYp}tjM*KkMjBg0P6`angquZV+Sd?4WfcY0N95Tgzmths7=f(rvX+nn?}huCV2YCL
zhKL6~PWzM8fEui#mMhVxHr%LJ`gY+7m{_H2=;SpC@;O9e(G(F8_I*pj77$+%XU7b8
zt00iaq=J!|werW!CV(wrNsd~xp~zbM7mcFZLL7;m$^%%^$S<Gm6i|n&o><D!`zm#r
zn`BZQi3KMZm0EBSi?1W6Uv4JYq$Wi5#47YhY|@qoTBTW1_$78dORuuEh@SJH>(SuB
zMru+1N(lUN{<){{Q=t?U?y52yTIOg*0cP;KIL6iLs>uQ@Sy2nPJf_%ySR!;~i@|l{
z!T~s{ms!Fyun3*FA4-^c0(;L)@X6DKw-sE7-6nM3*(BJMer}~6+=qXowtEUFcvr~;
zKu*E$-2bRW1#Z=HHodg?n!Cq%gtOY^juM(!Y5RJ2$Xjgsc7ONeaQ9SbW1pY{YFidA
z=JjLWfmwMuY<R~8em_@1J?EKu)>znvz@6bZODcNAR$z0R0)*5yZE<B$!@c@M{&mMl
z`zuP)<iz2;?2V;%UvFP`|L}%yARUgk3_II_K+2NSc{_J2#{<xZpJ-UsqT06)ZvI!2
z*uk;N)z=%?hSTnzXY-5Q0$xAHQ3eJMcs{#c78bl14V2<brRVLqF_2w6I*~o$#eb{H
z=1`UY$??=j`g`XRV<=!5M;qfKQ5##0UQ=|WYE*w(@tOENkH&}AbHp^zGuwKUG|f1l
zO-QOoE&Pw7B>kbHYr6>YuPDgs=eNpn`v8`(cdX%4hUBU2aY)M|_~JQOoL9hlP)&2z
zbYs|=lodJ6kYYXE_#{m0*+5tTa!so}<nV_eh49MpCq9$Lwj6?`X)x&N@x^;=P;BR_
zW{jwI5qalR-WFBYmsNKgstSg$RLEQsO&jfn&CTM+dfQ>x2`wFQBWj>Lfl<^140p)g
z_nK0JN5e4vpc+q83kS<=%c$pXlw0AzG?o%SWlRk+2=1Dl6`_wDN^BcS2Mwo*A66GI
z>Egb{ItfuZv4(YxHZ5j}6n=bQ?tzgqkWKri`1I$>LMiZ59iy3{tBni$E5)Z;SQ}^4
zrvv$?+H@6>KTcKT0YEk&_+Lee|EbkvR})kI?^t_>e|7$E{o+&U=>H<&3I0>M(_-D~
zbsoLqYhpxr7?`J(KN?k-{C^_<R}td>KfH2qa0CA+1O`1-@9}_n{<{!pvEHDA?4u^}
zU9h?HnP`*?N*{XMG_JTXLU6n&IxSW5iv|KbQT7>xL6k_G9yJ790;;Nta99JQ{>J>M
z$So!!mZOtpTtb4Qs`!q(pC#F8X;KLf$B*y^liYig<2i2TlNlNDBI1o@=`4qWyoEY(
z8(lu<z81N#PUmSX=ZGhQKOhMo6Gtqyc>Hg(4gATq!bWDp-l<0&)K|0W-V~doe(Z3^
zHMdm~IcYFH>xC63tfuijrDixhv5l8g^=Ij`joM|=R&SqNheu(jITZ5w-f^#MHFJ$#
zfS81{4y1Qqx^H=5%{-Gv)n#vYlKm$6Lv;!Mv4Da}H_+d(_g*V5U8G<xXoM}4rM=#f
z6iTpT<6I?-s?BIgp3g-mk)X8!lAmpoyHf$LAuu^7ShEI5n*H!e7A9~JAb9a5?^?e;
zCoVc?E90t2<y8kctLVBn?j9D}Pnp6D7tG~~^o423wxHb7IEFa&AlpK{OBexhSg%0+
z;_CzdANU;$8Dg%L^dH19BUWcmK75An@k?&dc19M(v^8iPigE0Yn)ZFx(I10)a?P1%
zk<nCj18EQ<Q9H48&O>SMl=#$v*wH0-7IeM-nWh(+W*LxEXGtwz@F7{O_1#ZSrUDX+
z3@y&A-DzEt%qa8Ovv!>Pvhb8R%{LmunNk;lAr0X~vv~Je*nTls5$5P79w64iZc`Ul
z)>1+ja=mJQ_LR({Zzio6?C|O{nEM%|mMJDIDP~-2;@pLccKMABCvWmysnkV}Ea7i&
z)NlJeZ-$=duY5aoTMj;}$!MC+ad|d0xaRUI*sWsDzSP^2ekj_b2{AJ#F`{&8dhC+t
zxKL^zbt(16f@_|7l`W(WbFUDyN(@sYEJd?%V@A>Xz4)5M+DjMtG?8v5mO;F=Sn6G?
z0oB%bemJeVlppb$^RXf|7NtX)Ms78%`*n6iwe8}(`?PoMNbp#cy#@W~k9(eJMs5_S
zA+}@d*5)LJ9i3thuF>}U7u_Aa+K)n}H7?`C4iJ)VKeIi}4=cm?S?<ZB;zW6zBJeEF
zsXR~W0Cc&HfBE7#?G{~tFYQt3eKm?@Zh_G3EHTy8N7!*r_AN^5+>jH`_W}&AO!w3e
zh=#bbA^Ig6K(S8Aume}GBz@6+%$qwLQK@}fudsFQ!#AB024CC>$sN1$yf{&;d)|JW
zyq+e=Oaz)N&oL&^%a2cvl5s<f<-C^nm1v}juqYueBcGGEiv~nc;gNOMx(zleZgrR1
zHJZoT+zzJMy54uoADP9lMU)vdyScn)s2=Vew^2+Z`1zU4AWu)B$8L|3x1j>%&N+Vs
zQ)L^$M-j7%g#Pnb!bcx2<6lMo;^PQ}98?6e;b&K+k9zGtl<&KG43ZwY9wgno=za{D
z_@}ZvD4!=Jt{j`>vB5byN^i<qswaO%Cx&(<_k5<6pk;)97^&`Xb4e5`1GHH`V~VT7
z)Fx$_?iK1@-3Ru>4}6WEX(l^T);n7cAbgw1#~PoSn~_LH`YessHTlH_nnxm>eny&o
zC<Dj)>lAmWVx6Hs#?FpQ6~}}StGlvU&!|KJ9&>Tgc4`l84m|n8hrrmeZi`T+X9#US
zl2qVw9!6MP<@OOJdm`e_?q2#)5v=>4i_6PbEqH7h`%#HV5Q<F%?~S9HilHiXx9}*X
zUftm{U<V32dX=EvF|aqi!E1A!L`#QmeSr0w@yPa29)BhJ!TH{?phDT{@+Ymt1l*u!
zSC!uM?YTey<Cj+U*NtNz#@O+|&3OZFvn!WvZOi~vBrm8m7P*Q$ytxOaCPZk>!p)?o
zFkCLCusP4^%TW}6h*OS_j3mpr)Cm_B!C+A4Fio@4Y9)`QDJLdXqA{GGmzoPoXtcad
zzP=n3^g_HUVo{0}PI}?;vOPI*+%hC^0a`l?6h!yUsC5hsX5lnQ6{-iwUM33BO`qX+
zuqkvYm58oU8#$XOIotarv(H91)`{DTY?4MBJPtg1-~^o{ihL}Lc<{}TWO3x|kQm0P
zloUkKJd+U{q>+6g|NJ>=8eyp)n_`is9v!_P4q>VW20=c!>^i&If~ko?QOe+@h?6F)
zwaMW=+~Mk^o`On4h#yE<JmQ3GG_KOar*%4GM6z7`Y5f<GVIu8-{hRp>C=_o7EU_l8
zGxjJy@vXGP+<bI>q0q!8Cf;jZDg=%oY?us~1Vlo1kKM6L*`xxKp<%^%@JCbLy)3vd
zBcY{s?w*YI`SC{4@>RQG>(L$Oe#9$hpc(hi&$`|0L)<Md+`DzMHI#GX6~RKZrSGao
z`h{$?BZO$`{VQ3H(#MaC)1oxE@>FSDZHyM#(!KG<9)^}L&k>AmCEa#aKs8Q_u@jX*
zOb$kRP(=r8uBqS-&C7Ug6^jsM1RrXE)AJzV<R?-HSoV!>=2Fo}CO7Qk=Ok(;^X?x?
zW(I2}gD2J75X$g{_KVCUER5uu8M`bCysO5Tm_B^KqkP6CqOsMD3%rMCczuhUOj=T^
z09ZDNCw_PQir_X-R7mkaK=gF52bf80K?b5v+5Q1~WhiW_T$vwQKwEct?7mi;;piVD
zkU<!h4?!K7#F#sbZrzBWjP(#haLS{=W0;&G+{tsypnlKor|Cx&%4#0Y&=1!bFUFb!
zZ-kL*Ip82(;B$$|t60J=2~f-?964ms&xF#*{vX=jImnXd(c5g>Hm7adwmH+bZBN@X
z)3$B<w2jl6wr!i+-`~aF8}Z)VjeX;d$cQ?bm32;5#)<r+Dxc4TbeIZ)c>gHTQo*0)
zz9X?-FN^o&Gva`rBkKCbAUZF)Oiiw4WsEv7UawB>b(*{P?9V?2yv}Q~8w2(zYq?mt
zR?cD=$~LZIN{bJlgnuhH8(gf$CoFZtWgQ6UwK1R+l%d+lNGgJ35^Fhv@$`_-<&>Rg
ztfX-RYeXVKL^tdG{I0BydJp+q;l&?s*B~rS0z>y;Z*W(5{mG~;^-betW%}vWafg~k
zYJS0sKwY<{)QhmO15?Po`!)A-rL{JvTJO!+2?adCIH#|txbly*grV_awO&41lUq@H
z;kWXOHuTbmsB-*2qQ`Q*<v|fwWl09OU8fVra~;-MDCt)@FUfi}yr!M7m(7W9*zih~
zukC?Z3TE!C``PGJS7#7*O?pw7wQ*{=zw-ADV|@*29SasxbbQJt%EZvgjkL&wdSpm)
ztklx1I{HcZg!LhRAQgfZ1Yu6MfUT@%pg53wO~zh`xkDF1SB|1_>3XFDOOhWjXm2~?
zJNdG}^$j8RKN%(IJOL%X9f%u{++JI0TX49d`Tk<;c;J(w+a^be%-nXCz`;JoJkAYG
zSGR9x5A%dxO}y|xHKAB6)em_VY<P=5uW5mHYGrPz2bu8hph;kC=SA~kJ+zW*#)%R#
zIg;49<iASqi!||OtMZpEjBxM9ErYv)(PGfmtur0jNHfHcAXmV516g{&j+j8xm+RE6
zkw{pfTk$KkesdZ6lQ~6u$=|9`ud2}Ad;a=7C$$AnmeGef%j?@5%)$Jnly{G|0lBol
zMb(R`T1cSKkFjPDXdt#tZ*67PCPKkN#5Jq9Ma0ko7R@09uZcP61vQ=YyH>wsW5N1P
z=bO25y<}pdl$9!kZk8C;_HnV{W1-!Xe?5mJC_499meg`~07w|v&cPCXV4ASfSku(>
zUUX1f;Eup5jo=CO;3{(PW|h|`OiWzhf={xzp&mpdK=Mu3Q%Y5PqoN{bnF=#A4CC@#
z_<BL)1QS+gv7v7A;`pK|VQn+!@yL8vz=P4$Z^X6-njV5R=y=)y%(ek(deWUv*T#33
z=<i6&2TWI31h^~fciA-S%)DfCOuJio^vm)f71fQyi(mD~F9np6IYp;6TV8q(gog<x
z0LfL1wM~*kU8ltAKqve|O{b;hlEBVpTp^MV!6-IlFi}CV^D`3+3nl<}Zq;sQ8O|oL
zK7sPoWKWfDHK-)mDf=b?k_~i|(}P-#w6+`z)p;SOMIO1Cm1ohJ7<|=_baRG&ZH5BV
zTe)<*xIfONZ8>2$Ov>L~=w6O&((U%ts#%8LLAIBNFeWT^Q6E#qqvXTchiZPU)66_&
zzLCXxu{AXVN*E7hE1hggo4hC}(oI-$7@#<#H9BacN^e?uK5Plcq!!eLPiQ^B=Ez<7
z0&&BluiUo;4O`~1L3lL3?>)l11_vFhcEf91HA#8mFta5N-)j<voPwuF>)~Gg^5UD_
zggpDxUK0eAU&1+v?%9oa1-qiLMY8f!j{{}o+6W}PA-W0!J7HA?aqEC}Zu1IGl#2<N
zQ8?JQt!X_CK{Pfq^y`Xzp~WYAiqf7->_X|(s+=6thv`#r9G2!Ygm2ovC$h`TTX1ZN
zln-`W^~PzA)D5rGhdP8iwu<mD7Pv=QKPa5RpkjE!uZc8fU<ZzH3=!*&Gq;?$Rm}Ux
z!2N9xZO?KX9=ktMYY$l@JjF^!)0ImuyYEkzE^`)u$><<#OiW$Ol5dx&WJ05;ZGu3%
z%6jPWTnlNc;oEtKHNjv;HbTM)vH%NaCT1XyUk>KX5LiR+an1!~Y7vRO!;!WaS7xx!
z)?b}pWin^*E+JaN&RXPsQt3>N)(_9v;VptIWNxre9ZT&hUqVfZH7+lU&p}MM)iV{$
zDCXDrWFXlg<}nO)$+<w92E-M1)e9Zk(2Ec^QPEAfPuyc{6V|Adlb_Kc+94OierGau
z@Ka1aWWNH`<9BH`5n6l}zvwKL+4|&V!@aUF*=qWoH;QK(1co+_+>+l|LVhs(ePj=o
z2f4AV&yw@npuU2vz5G%5iQ0@0)l7iDIpa60Xk9o%^sXm=-*=YBIK^7oJILOvA8v7a
zq-Yr3>@)=X3hBmxDZGj2+(|#jIV#p8FQ6H+KIlGx6thfN+t!gsG-KVl)Iv6iFu<qa
z!tcMtM+2i&R6J#U6bEiFO@E4UmO`|}xbRpuzcK}V1!;`PRY-K&ofYDaYH~__a372(
zHHf!o-Zy1KyAXNBLGX+msPN0$!tl(jr+BO<y?CJ~)L5?}yT=p!Y-oPKL{-cJN}(y-
zknl8jv3xv8(fM5my`E=)cP=x3P`Bjpz<gnKeh5i4z75~RDZ?-HhZuU6hgAl;xF@#+
zpGlq%s&;%`7pj>L?i=%c9oyRGz)H-Az4@fXIy<xG=QqO*JMj#Uxm&P>T~{_{iJcsr
zRUTI~>Xzae=SoO5mN>ph7DRrAp_YcQixB(Z=>~D)DoEaj`Sz&;^hOx&o>_aOj2a#Q
zG(%OfX)3Xag69Br9c`>1%%Ws#g%{!iN>6!+0IVnUbh4xHV}^zdQwX4q$Ca&i?MDbN
zL%!`TB_1+8CpvQtrLa&YSkK+<pqTz6m|T!q4;r6v!&!w9vihw2mh~=4Rg3qGH?+;4
z;HJ@6CXmyxmhL~<U3U>6Z$RTif4rl_8R_|yU+%f@)QG_V^d|^uBR;dALXZej+~Ceg
zEBS1mN~ctnfBCN81))EksCLdnvaqE3^Q(J)s6;-$yTn|}9jW@TDR3a0=nIN?3G)s~
z;h*}AY&6c62Tm^F--<ZIoO`olEPbt=#o&UuAgPdh;3nVxOmpIwwYiZW^x7~JC#&#P
z!0daX*)hko8`&1>0;h2jsSuZ7FhIP74Gi1qZxv&5vT$l5Tr{6~f4Dxk=T!JU35MZ)
zh9RQns=F{DvI^yU-h#&bj<+IP*e5zDnGQhU+sBs;m*<L~hS<d&17-cpXgokVF?kbB
z$uKGH=0VtX=H_69CRgBf<9b!bcLBS>i|l0L)NjkM<|s6^pbc!Aw<_N^6Nb8?js26V
zD3(bT^cvW$>T~EV3#!z+!g$t}r&3@^?V8Y8liy8SSFJS*Ljrw-AV0$o-@_FGPz4Ty
z?hbmo1Bw}&#k%+}rxEV_s=d%23@9XEeZ-bPjVJFg3>k^!(9bE^2{zZ<w-mQDBE9b-
zTC!(S%<iaHE{?%BtA6p~P}D+yP%f^2q7D6y5J*1|HrY}ow8w=igFkN}2(R&66F~B<
z+IPz9PhY`Va_bd{pF9M;ROs}zpI?fGc}}^Q6XvNk02MTg2zO2BTS&QBz<nf-MGop0
zjlVC-(l#mg!+YeuQfLaXU(~^&q<DpP2(J|x?-f0{AHqPhae!I@DBW*FywW=gkBjMg
zlv3uJyw)xWK=Q+!fn9*xhw7i{&4Y1<pEC`B+Vz>{`R(ve`+zC#qBPsIX-k_)wF|*`
zsq9`r(z>qn*`r<c47Gu~l=rw%3)xa`&%tJhJymTBdbMsM3gs6)W3F3!)w-9=Rvp+I
zg7=NWC>4H>g%0fBOU)6EuN8m>Vwr6Gh~YQ{A8n|6P-Kp_Vm^Svcb|v2b+I-oF|76^
z@T!4+P{XsGpat!icI!9lA_=@NLNd+z#U6@GYS>zhkF=*E*Rv*8!G3`jsN}4cs<;i6
zi2Lhf_S_X6&`*1W4~kgSjS03v^G3fdG<uJ-RPD<|hAsHr5n{tjl9XFH??eLheM532
zfWy>e3klSwgGIDR>t1so3y}P)m&%O?FVZ8@9mQ?SL$Z&v^tT<3n7I7`5h}Lbb=Xg9
zw!D-}fp3QI!r@OmuQt<{^<xq`8s3-RPA;>)nQ~j^9!8wP1%Aha9U7k3+o3xl75*$X
z1)YoL5Xr@gMPYU)nL;W%CC$4}4r9?ULEuPug6H_{No0Z{{8|zYZuePxPd_9B-xwr}
z&iYMPyoZF1V23cDP}yM_>*?V{Zj&NNS0=|0`i&*UI4en22<-OQmWl|lY=d*_v;LUr
ztxYG(Y(KZv(imKYlr#Sw-o=E9zrXY3IPA`Vgy9mqpSTJ7#LsBkCrV&byel5wKzc8_
zshj%5h&I|<-i&Db6hS0g2`u(%-53xaFt0VWe7GWnw7Q6V-r|vK<C!h>p`!9#ePbt0
z>uLIu_7hj|>CsxiNk~HAun&j@Sb`}$rShwifApF+VceKg=#)#;y4W>Q6iJin`@9%F
zRoQzXTY%pC%*#6SH&ZCqKE+uGoMfNO4sBKt>FA9g_POMc8-+KZA{JDHpV+Od7u>NG
zHTu5fC62h2#bs3q<~`;D<M+{Xh=@lRBHrZ<4*x_Cx>N*2_Xgz=&b#8mwaB6npN|K^
z_D#VgOJ<@XJS$B>5AX;-=>%RGiCKUE)pn-=-In9n>mA!vgHey80PVm>|1f~`P<k`=
z!}RX-WZ{GNC$O35uTR_h;6~+Z7M097VpJEn3rbT9Q9l7I*vA6M*dOmFtJJxD0P$Io
zcAEv|kTvPq7MbjA)B`WbY8mDZQPK4kEY(O;8x;feLKyg|H_?tM+{pVO>V<_f@IHP%
zWzlQT57&2$AgyL4S^{u!J7zBIYlRQ7+2aFe2%U*xHL<v6GqFfLbP>suOSMimY_7EQ
zwI@&@ltBQ@Y=Kj1&%f;JHME;+%6rwy?%kRQPqu=m2hoDtc0tsOaV42u09)^SO5mE5
z+l*#TZ=5!@Usfnt^)>oiM_j5<vvExCW+K4-e&ZBx`!U<bfyWr=OLCdv^3G8Vju@&J
z+}^S<g0!lX9eVGRwGoUpf(GCq?<7DgM=XDgy?5yn`T-_hptpYVZUieA7w+dx?3wf0
z9JrA|2vIrh(_~XgXc}@kIrgr-k#HViVU3(D{$uaDK88FyZ!(6MS}bm`U>+5C(Ri!U
z9Uo{~==IyXfbcbKQzf8+XUIwjFPw##;=wXda={3X_Fc}&{622pqKD|a<)%`oCM>3o
zRV}gBjO|kv;v`Y6j$*4wUHsv(NXu%=F76qt1^VP57iJOAn{|(9!#ZRzO|h*WxJ6aY
zmbz-VxgpX}*<qRah)5fY7k<f{A-mn5=(SO(>VOK6T8j1rqFCM974iXjUt#$Yb{kj|
ztq@k@JfXkxfYK}oY+LwOC>{v{+znJ8sBJHd@vJgoh<ZB?$k&Tl&t)F{=S}c7#BTJc
zYxsjZ#4dOgYB_U}R<dLHkrUjDJ>64RjFBuI%-S|}wR#sZE$Z=6tNSvQ5%`QiZuFUe
zqbuYJgq<dt5#g742!1~(yTb{1M|~>sT>7VQAnoU!;m2lSEuj&>U~q_d)%LoU%o+)=
zVB=og(OzwR1z{@ZEkYn%K~|y!xFnZw^F&R%?w1Xg+BQM99!^|@V9Nz>6D*<F7yZ1e
zlB1t(ncjSrvX8IZHV~Zec(N<uZz7VNTvx~4bHF}#D5Mhy{lT07TCcOtl_f?WOHcx<
z=VI)Az`tbY&l-5!7S_IT?x=@6*e+qg4v$kOE^KXwi@^2{?~eo<(5-<!EiH?<GIyq2
z;sbz)bzGA4a0B7|3NIM`4&3o#nHStG_(5yV08uNq6kE45F?#?yFTX)B4^s}O+(;YH
zPo;QV`Smx_f^b{Sdd84Z_HDSxWI)TTc~88<i#aSyOTaD>2l{$|oX!r>z#EtJL{O^M
z%Box~R7}CDCm`Wgn|F-<pw%PLf;oU+VRxUmKCM_fl9x|Eo%X>{<<NFXblDiFz8Blp
z*_FC#%6H73?WLWvQAFV2(m1MQxfzUcNH6t$Q6%SFYz^0P_p%J0nfPA7I^H#2_tHqQ
z?9xB3i4$la$d5cHzXZ8@M!$pxjv7D|i!Rtq^Om-{O`Mf~;e4stI7im_YP7^@9N^7$
zFn}~aa?5+7jM1!lDM{pD?1za1gKtU+7zLAc)6Y`}vOjTre#<E#S}|d#&|No-kKllK
zxBQ53^)xRLAww>~uNuO$h9O3G=Y|!U;}5>6&uPn;W$Xj01I!^2F+Ym$IGS>3{N$aQ
zwTh>X&Zb^6m2$3S=tB)?Ym;~*T?Czmw03<RFz%C8bM8Z@9tD3Y2<d0truCOqKNCC|
z@_$z#tOSdxDZ4TlXv^cqo<9uA;~s%_niVGin#Y`%tV5q$%pA^K1ZVrKF`W+^LJNjF
z1RzX<Ed||I37SehO56nq$xY<dqVn6+VeR@bTNu(~ff9p4H%+D>eTQs@IGZQH=S+8s
zGWW9o<*k2dp-Wd=oHOLv`!q-}H*<o#dda)QNF1_E^@5MNS&75uj0gbR+=Fgh))g%)
z9jEuQ=fy4sNmkA0=7a3ayPZ?GVtE{KndkWv0BbAh3AymvtnD&f!P#QWLiGLX2}yoe
z)rO^uQ!(%Gd(V?-GhZICeQWtgWX65liTM_&A*n6LjFLeGXUg&Phj6DA=;`kk?gTxt
zs@P!mg%cSQo3qP)t(1=!PFfK2+wA--*-<ca-gj!C%^(kB>k{&>A4k=F9<E6%7TkyW
z{X~sPSG_JXoNDtrb^Q2PmyvmV<VH%Rut$GLfZ_JPg?&kP$wB?#M;bu<$oAS$bmDFY
z<vN9VrivV(y|6x3oqv!R2<_>#3O}oo0z;!2hM!m382+jANQz{`bBqPmB~g*s+0-$8
zn<{)TjMMt{Drg)p7qd8>jkhz}z}O`<RExf507;*4@yACW%x<3u)eC>R1I$?;^S0z^
zV}KjWgHq5{57Kutked$)TE#3+c(RKlsb%2#PDm>7{`~Jo^4jaGa(Mr&)J3@D0XY5+
zEa>rgg-^T;{kF?u!!R^5EX^Z^c;@K*SdfCvrqsO||MqJ%n@^>Xa6WfN%VvoyP~oa*
z(8~w>Nx}N#Y*;nBj;TMBX<^1L;_*-Grr7;pTW2lH8ATwsP~S_%<t`%Ps2h&Z>Cf9j
z`2>%7%06tneUvBDr72?4?A8v=6M$(7lw2VH6=%=*)@gs=ps@KQTR42lHO8+^wJpFN
z4NNkK*Vc3!Q*g~;tsB4Rm_KJLoHpY#d@o1(CbDfEU2sWe%g>6yeML=2AWz>T`1iZ@
zc=(}vg1{U%63?*?im%=mUFt{HVG4YnV{gn~Rr`Z%HeaFI!Nzr!9%qY?Qzw7e>YI7k
z>R)feTZlwdts}UozUb5qs}M>$!#^{!im9dgw`6@R9FhCPFy_4?5-8`YuI3RLU78^u
zL;6x6YSfJOlCbF2Jd_y;7FQ#RJ@MO!F4222H(Gv<cP4}?hQ~wIpl?sV|K5~(2ta9(
z<OM{7#Vk0-gw3D6(qse*fn@aeW%Tud=@`A`@9e&^PY_+;8FKszXFjeKMnW-pfB}>}
zKlZ@ok~4!-^A2aVr7Le9qxoT*Ck-ha!f=5Y2kz8%umuM~?jRv<raXW41UPp;3bn((
z&0mV;cp%P2?9uhT-E8)EMn@hVf4(YP*xF}H_AVQ74RNEs;W?)R8k$5dF-?yI{=jcQ
zBb|f882p%M`eZx)Fs=e8yUXh^{3Q3p`V?d|pXyHadNMw!i`L;IJ9N4F{d>FNpkK0g
z4eyq;&o-cTk`y@7cOL0TWUdr)7S21y7#QHl(2q-T87(p15gK~s0i9Qgc|w%&PSy1&
zlwh32t8S3pl&qH4f^6z?--7Yi19h8=A*kk^^DO+lQF=`d{DHSy6&lnDS#d4Cp@hs%
zpkDM4JL2%Z+=WE&ur5w5nL7b(+T#Rou~iG(U-7pTx#;6A1lBB=)1m5GaKe3?P8M5k
zTo-@Bu`IC2wQ2ol^}_;{TqY(@tW`dGIB%!qvLZvG4ei@wd{Pe0gMMY!)jo1*hq0xS
z7uCcI7BD<_63dY269gC#m>F^}x+F45qx+HxhB=SQsoZ#vXnO#Twt6Nu|3i2~$OnC!
z+nVe_`mF9ne+ivkqcO=Xk#Uy|@~LE3%t!8ILpO0LppMNFzLvw47_oLCL2uXo3iO2f
zqA!xqyk2nM8mRl!lkJqayB6#Ho~9~LRTfEwxG$Z@{wkTMb9U+>x$Hjf<9WWHIRkS8
zk;E%?*VU7J@<BXJv~Ov>8EOG_P*;?Cc~JmnwHmsP-h{8}KozQ+|9%+p>MvZzmhKC-
zqo3F5a71RuiR(N?|MwBBBT``d<lXez1D7lS)K6;Wk5A93WeUWm2!{Is_RW+Lha$N@
zd8bWNdHlNi<#(cz?I~T7Xe?dgY0(&y{y73OZTL?CTsP`svb#Fc3rMNo?Zotj&oCq(
zidF=!R=<ECtJG)l>1*BK*X{yOqJeLMbnBZTO7>>6x(|QPUxO$l*|W1)YJ!wL2xAYr
zwSLBK=&!M$zxpdu-FUe$1H#Anas&^ty%w<P0R5%w^Zgg6Q0E#L7FyHdKJd@K7N~Ae
z9)Tb;`oo!ouJUV4H+Xjlrr82Ro|{Bsz-5Tdh!_jZ)Q;|`TZ4JO{HN^Si(s!X_ii_q
zzwc=WbLBJ6?b-j@hdHoku%4|vEkMoiR}j9)t;PQhbZ{5m{WU=35ghmqYvvVDY<X!h
zKjMQ87+t2OJ0L0HY`W)%@roGog5L4*jNKV{H}?^0ib?<0{q9dz9ax&fmaxJtu>U@$
zeTX_@9CbfG#KjSn9>LeWuzDfl05^0eka#XL@b>e`IL7B;j^L2#=n%m=@Uj!*k}!rh
z^1eH^bKDoV>H0%BRMC(227(z2b+aAXQ{ttFIM0ByTo9=^x?2NXu;d!<#o(+ZsiSPB
z<A~*z+Kx4T)*AE*Zsb|?(<e}fM?E&LyqG^-)PsB_jFg`K!AA77r{M<B4@EWkq`IbZ
z*h+@vUrRP!(j#+y=)-Z-0YVlax{q6VlL+we^AifF_2*RI6@=6oDr5cV3Tz$Rl)S~`
zj%QL;B3oNnHHdZ0pr5Ethko7r1-6qpoGr|^ds<};N)IWCo&^h5GK1{u??tLk7<5+c
zI3$3d^yUHU(*#j&%;7CbBDIT$7}H!{hT1BUSC8SG-R`6IEO1ru!3P`U_u?1IyQUx(
zQgXuj3Bm(?Lp1`4xBue6>_2@}d_uA!d+v91xZML&+KzRT1E*02m(+o23P7e-_ebIp
z6&tS5g?%6XdrbG4`$<VokP%pgx65HKwW5J{%b{rF_+78!8alQOZyb{rNUbiASNFX@
zTC7E`Q~<{$$Q_T6V?`=gOCjWtY1OE92nDf$(sUK;q&o*zs%+@_PD?UyctDYZvb<XP
zGFqN#xEz<$ocyNDTQd*Mz+;~nvwWjGax4wZI3Co$&j`|*bm|e<E|d$r-y?Y1d@qR7
zO?K$^nloui$L$x<WYZbklcXG!w>PZ+GkPyyZBqYp)R}UTRcFYQCV@g8i%n->504T)
zb;5!*e)I>WOX`F<YxJl*C0i;6OWIW7FB#ATEBTwWJ(f|kKmDe(2{d1)(gsY)5^O1T
z<XO|?4Oz2CxhYN3Oqp@}zh%kbCCtc6vfz%ILL{hD_NO73uqKY8PzI+JGRv6%8Tj^l
zl!Ovi9*PyWXV04QJ?+k9Hf2;p{)M^ikBkFlSL&UqGh_mhJfp>ImJAnV3d`|WA$-D=
zJTJ@fNFjK_gZv6hq{VD<WR46zrIWm`ye^y7;GQZaL)rkVRc|3rg1LM;t5shiOM;|4
z9;;Q)9vUT!{0Upxa3Ny?ue>!|q`7Le3<f$AIx>2A<m7;{F)K^zFUqj-ZzF|KG874H
z@``NFv7_B-Z_%SQ^8Q9QYzaB3ZzFrqlqIRYz&$=ns<ceQ8-@gjRNu)x?u43D0+Snx
z1g2EqsXaEz9M<QM(P8<I(LG}MkEuO!$^era(gftxPT-yZrBqty_#Ppp1DjX$C@Q4`
zt5@)-L0ae39&^HCYUkJ<N`h8u=foZbC3M<b=xDUOzM*sA=&gLV$qjviMJoT~9#B5p
zxISkzK|b5?hC5+6m4B@8rwmU5NP<-AnMr+$3~oYr+L_S}O2WE4k?9Rcf)Gnv&M0x(
z+HhgwC?h3b+S<4&bb?Rn+N3F8f}Q+@aedNgmV7hw^28nzWk%}S)E*~gfT1&8LaaO|
zvktH@WR#cECT*?H6fq$qt#;Yu|3{%W?R$vt{XbgF<9q+DEX4Kx59Rk=DM@WQoi3s!
zVn$oOhDn45t*ePd1psA`)-@Q7j!yS)P^*4uwVH7#+IUiH^UkaY$~Y~f!cXn;0W=D%
z3X5p<BRmQ$+WntVa_FQ7bSz4dZM0(q6y|g+75Qdx1M(E+)GCDot`u-|x|CuVrPJ&b
zH%TLEWLl8~6vebG5=9x6q6vwqrQ*$KI<ls;EFzKDvN3ALm1wxKF)Czwk?a(bbS$!w
zzhz^T$uuIjG3)wC!f03;$=taIP$;0Z28u-s)d%7Nr8UW9BE|1*f61og4hSdN2cl`w
z%@_=xm53W8z0p#<P&*Z&btN4Yv7VL<VA7@#$^NJo_ej#=qF_`zZl|4*h@6sjRn0Fz
zBTTfcskbi??;LBWLi49sDXrX1yef08O0p~(D3WbdC)13?!eo#XVb{vnk%*o_QAo1P
zPmE2nEKEd9vdkTzIMIngyHBdmMsrIlEy(_>Nv0dAd!mzwrcdz|fip*v8Fg@s(u|g@
znoes<EuxB3jV6LSSgM*QOEE?5q$}{M5c*Ly(4F|C5oti19vk}9mahXfphSCDfF?xk
zBrEW$9|}<0DMX{1Z*WL@lBDU@+-XHKpmCCycvcMsDCYq+j@T#!HFnVN&rB#j$`U`7
zcP?dp3kNpU6OlEJz$rFrEO|k9x}u7AN#kg*t5pF71FN!~MFXgq`wA2v@qT<kQROeY
zApV#5hQEwBGjW$UBO>wOs2NStV}6#RGWM{64*tS5#K6sxa1oK2vvn$~Y#f|mZD0vL
zOi$M}uaH~LHd_JcG^d2UbvyXq31xjAyH0&>9%lv|cJ=~aH+(kzJT?;AgiZ+fC4;4C
z;*>k3ufY_&vUhm!e3N%@qxvzF)Cls^lvFNdqJlA?kJkL7s4N|c2lb-_FyhtDiqkqu
zTM~?+2i>FW>KU*}$D85A;U(AxO)$RG5EU(nqUL*wH|Oc!PBxD9V`LnyiDBT=5EXg`
z8iNnMW1P}l6bvrR&_1fJi5*@Pw?-Q?4C1wKDW0s0IPncy^LpS{Inxa?xY}b5%0^*g
zjMLZ`r*WxVN=D&RC#(EWs#9;)BuyS!pouu8#u{J18z76aF{=o%{8L3e<eO)E9<MDt
zBb@>)IXzIBNUCBSAZUNXi(1BLp#F&g3Ma&HUNCN<I`OOOFANjIf-qZ&+Ps>4L8|O_
z-suUo_3_v1HfOHTXmd?9`MlEn)^uZ52?~L`Z|x0{7?^j{`;D%+T{93-6-VyFbNDii
zvNRH~5-fw<%RAyRNep9rF~1qchJ6}sbz-RhFm$14%_fRQ(V4=3bOgrdZ%9X>vTKuk
z$07+EPd-I`t~VnkQ)*@>4I6cWjL5@KjQSBp>P+AdxE(L!(&kJdg;M!JnUNGfBn%gB
zOB94dl0ilCGJfDJF2uW-LMFxeD1Mih)@9akW4K(evz(!Wk>={f<Q<-kf!nxLgdt#A
zcY(1^JxkL*X1?!mj26Y%XpUF4oQBmfM@uF_tCu4BTmHBBZ|UD88I+_uW@;4q3AX7m
zwJO>)^caLRJ4aw_dWQKT<e@>LN~m&dZtQGfP<+bbYL+zlmge6kV{%0hLxp>3QX3|@
zCDebgYerW|raaNDU~loi{jAGjc|d=I5$buw`9uN?wmD1-K^ydIIb!V^^kH*9^1S5q
zmR!O5+LmGpvCc;l_d#C?X7(;w?fE#uZAg3)?#X!KZ~WxCpBv!1>l$4AU2}XosC9q5
zL+1!~o^p@7Bj-pExBaFPLpY;^Z6N*%*_b2s%JZ&%t<xptD``MQw6GYZw7VjveM#eq
zmT3p=#1Hbi9l4aY1JKTC<yv66h(wHt@3&tHz0RryKWyGz<BS=d2AjM}wU2An;L`F{
z=Q3E!x4{r=huk5r#U%<;xI(d=zegh$7X-m~oO~a-Z@1d<v#b$&)o+D9@2FeQ)3#w)
z&<(ER+eT_7)a<u&q^s_LJgthtWvGt9C9jSs!%P{r#c+sQ{>C`tidi$qJutXN%J?U}
z&_+yQR<uk-7sWc!HTK71>b&+6cMZ$DXZ;K=HYS@vI^87vWYU3jLy?VWLy<tAswO$T
z6H>By=ucJgX*2`~j!kGU>XF-Ee!dY%EOy9q5d~Y}8<~$^O2&XX0Hr|#ld*EcWuuaz
zAW=id`4*>vsx{~=&t?f1=0sxWY|Jk$>(Vqvg+WAbf+khHQq6Lwubp2b6dHWR(i(9U
zMWb;ts%Dmd*k@E2HA2RUScf5wX(xy;sgnwo%hY#ps4&BaWK0MOie_+_oH1mz!r+SN
z2*`_6@_x_4NCmMIAOrs>j6Rsg%CrT|jJBdD4}_ah@gyixWywVu%1p{YC$KvWiL<C2
z8Od*XnV_|D85#ABLBz6rcy?~ZT+TG~EFF86Jo5Uj)8rR4sKrl!nX@gQamH$Raeh~^
z65)2arSW-$7qa<XCFdP9GZw2kLyLf2m6@iL0Zijq059I9?6usJG|5nL#A8{vL_z%N
zY{_Ps8MXlq7vrtML><oAHFPj<BCb>S{cLF#tUz%dR<+tbM$z%a`4%p-U4I!;zW+Rv
z&0f?pKdEC&vkv6dJ0n)g`HkO!hGBGsdW~>03O=J?Sd;zMY*J4yvB2erm&<&;Ic1WT
zyydp9gbqCRjcf)(=<Zlqx9PJpCw);ZPm!tU?Mq^P-vK3irfdNsV)Cr9N&grt?Yl^T
zq+~8yxNHCk`5UwVk-9hTSnka*v9Q52T-Yo9u95*eBFl2T)>cce@Q~2U;OBD7=jWBR
z(NlyX&I;v^;U9g*+7OGP==33w(=fM2L=&Mrj))UsIw&C^PezmzAWZB%uBG8t%$WSj
z&`rwV_KqSP@<Ft%c$8uk@;@V$LHCuR(6?xDkkJxFVKMr-ao|l1*)e*Plwq`bsBvJ)
zb3wwy1owKGao`k3LP;HY5W++paS<S(5duG^kzYiS?t(UcA?o~s?aHMx?J1fDZx`c|
z4zG5Ebq!)aLU2bR#Z)E1{X>F^Mnc3Jgji`96o&$B&K!h_kQ=T&ErQ@0XgMv4Auc*F
z%}KyP0s=ksgTUmCtg)}g5p=4b>5A<QLZ}b<O28L-vyaOW2@qDZMX%;hyfoMy2;63S
z!VnCK-zI-T5e$6XM#v0%+`{ODzwG(9rDGe>lTbfcYa5drl&Sxp<)T-G8;q$B{)(R;
z8ra9?h?5;Ac7?$Y3%w0;7EWbId=@Hj#eEj0SBvi6<GuvN+9=G%5A}UpWeJSb6N0n9
zzZRD0XY3UTKM4Mozc%t?FK;XMMNr2!qc*(FmSQWoefVET{580i9$IZ!Izyf{1g_p#
zM{xS!QzIIBqv|{bg4Z0APnWZRxOZUPC(nb>@W<iO=l??^aW0hOJV+c~j|w=qHHZ}A
zRw*a}M_|GKUgLj`;F0G+aCqZz>6O4I$K=xG%rCABSohTkcuCk|>KdEx{@HyOmGfhi
z47cNGF;m$eI?HNVSaU$KA<9oaKE5$lZ^+}U_TW(JarR<(Si{iWcdG#R&`Z%IBzH3@
zHFecYtGjd`@0R)v`1<hU+&S@PZ9%PSxL#K&D;7W1E!m>W=U^Upj%#=Vyuo>@)4SM%
zlgooMTnFK&rcLC@pJbZ5)8q{ysuCbdp26lFqZJe>|3b@WAZdE0VA;>1o7E8%kz<$1
zNP}?>6WxLkNImD_L-ArtJcgH2X;L1+>cy?<;y+Q<!E9=ccy@`Dth%dyJ++N}FWXiQ
zHj^}(-(`Qey8eioOgCO=&W>Tv{N$W<BxTC~=(ARs&y8$Lv0NAsheuUW=}_B6XC$2W
zn)fu3QVXdr7`2UF7)mqgI8?ILvsTbtkZ#tss#+i$T6P5JjSK*7$=Pfzbk~<*ius>a
z`02B2Ty%M}DN5KbevHJh8C1sfM>|9;ctq@VyUJnC&8ZbkMBc3y_@>Ghsg|kJCjE2x
zP)YuekN@8CKOXKMO`w`Fr4*isDLVS3imJ>GXLj!#l5~jmmp2xe!43Xy#0mT8`S8J=
zGo0Ho*zEZvYLM|7e$&C3-oQ!~q5hf(X8nKqbkubbhCb*v@~pHH8%g=#KNiRsW~61^
z8!bOM=V}b_SEfIwrab3`K{6+YC&y315LYnoh*Sib?Mx_Z#xwEJ4QVq}^z#I?9!j>e
z_+Z5`PE7Q>-KVlanh;G~g&em12K`Yq(P$Dzcs#^Awk+(a-nJ6gd;?&-D<=1|#T)AU
z1RTTz7v8jh`D-d-o(%i;XY!&zbO7}JyWDg++~eE!qiv6+<}0CRz$3)pBS<Gs6n|MW
z_XBgEoHN_-t`W8K+m|j5P@n8YuKv>sIL}VRw1>R=`v+qsJG~wUCimBMfR4SExxT;t
zM`>qFXSp{JBj-@b2g5yn^Wp*GWKGZ~Y5lPJ{t4VZXVnb(sr<*qu?E1(y~g>#V?A96
zK-^K%8)tT=8cY><DhH+k+OnztcWbN<Y~u=F-6t3kG-vo+3sCfIRNy%A6z|~Z^t6gI
z5OIU}+>rKp%5yLF%H?mF<Q-gYBERcyZXB*m1!0P%$a+f)fN2U1uTb4<U$0K_m(R8(
zcmtP<KuRg=GMEs`-`j5FaAC@H=ql?^S;;!0b))?;{6WzJ(lDmT`oH3l{!75U$UjE7
zFLNRXGn1H%_?M9G%P#gsE2(~I`y8dstSl^DNjO<K{@onsO2Y7EQu{|@XyHP_{;vdI
z(SIC!3>;scH3qgXwHga6J2MH-S1RwnPD&ctS=o9~|GR#U=HJ@B)QzkpUxu@Pe&iot
zo1&53mn87Ni|YPqSNk#`x|&!rDLOdY8QK1;tJc2_h@F|4N#;u`Xk{W|Z((aj!px-R
zYG$WN!u{{szJIR%zx8oUUwdc%bst~4wf_Qp{ZFCB|3#Pg&xClne0}vlM#(Q7pOUkw
zne&$>kNQ6}c{EI_W)@aosx&WZkuU$L8O>K@v7@7{*_V~ZmE?;P`)5kk9i(K$6^tDJ
z)2+uOuJz>x{JMqzK1>qUe@PGjGxYfD(tkSqqqX~YknNu;lh${(@2sqxdfeQs-`SWs
z_5Mrz@xRP`|F4)CE9-yJ7FcemE7#c%kRYr-!^I1@1v)0Ri%b7?8=bcKTe!~Ss9Fg1
zODycoFG#YC*YGa;{mkN4?s3g4C9qqCS%4BJt0hEEdz56&(U}Mjb|I~?0B^FA{EGgf
zg<^Z{nMHV&^&>k$E+6qCEUyilYOBWdcV-UjEs2mI+guHc|89(65J*wa&dAfg#BfD6
zswd{h?|v*))4@qWKJ6d*oYE^wFjXi!l{X&#iEz`apI(#!8Z9%vR>o3Io@i0$`I=Fb
z1(oX+vMKf3+hdjD%Z>tKO&SP1@xw*N5oYdQXHtQnAQ($_l>e*$|No~XPF6N97ViJ#
z@i<w&Ql|bJkLU9*9`Cd5ybDFQ5Ef!PRO$$hj0{W^29_Z)L>bK*4mJ<l>L<ldG6+XZ
z5pjtgH%!z!3eK~m{QTCj_Gq*9%@s^N<=S(&(T>l{w6??jeHBxoj?W&hLq3bKtTaB4
zgUmEoTygaj+0p!o-^+UK?=SmvmtwabBsGriADws4<do=sbKxVjG(S3-QQ9p&JH(;-
z6r*>%=FC5D#;<tA0R;KFlO>bw#ZN;A@$6*jujnc{7IINHCH_eS7jmw~RAZ+qU=r&B
zh_ewVOyaEyqi3OVHjB#*$lD#i{EsTzLZ25XfRp4agrc77XKzKff1tE8eg|;OLLck_
z8F^n?<mw~iE~x4avbi2lLQA>);{<!IZ?P~YGoDj%DaW3`2C06Td9d1(hwo%EOqrFs
z$uU%kHI5Z>v!3!5TdgEp1;`d>h<4~Dsz#6FXA{CG!>KIYtE9%ff4ojKgR(X|W!^Wc
z#petuJ#2=vdnn&2QBLMo%;Xd`MlH+{-l6%4LpGw>!rPTV9~;5VjNd_ZDSh_mTyad<
zmYWDD2wF?;WxK|Q5<@)X7ynJ?L$S7mF6XfS`KlLl(Q!p+FX~xS13FmI={D(+_dZkV
ztd#!FefF?b>jm%Wm$V!53Ai%Z4mW-wi5{ARNS98aj=!1tC{q`mn_*+K!kR4Rp=F15
zn!D=2$)l0hh)|!XP@63B>H*W0j<#g^m;~=$fp=Q-#ncy<yK<n>6C1bW(UV*B>Q14a
zY>Ln+?vo2TJ%;N1qV+<J$(qb5zG%JOs&&x{t4SU)8?wrng<0Ot!|%r)7W=0*A@=><
zt5)Dc{gNx<9<zEl*pJg)EGv_;0bJ`+tIX!y_UP=Z7`sb{#~j{&h>C`fX#S>z9&xOb
z&oT{`BOm4=S4+TaN&eM--25Z$pcmilvO3n8%oyq~p&mD=FXTLyBwZ#qa~UMp##l^c
zFNV)vWB(h;PW8NILGp2|t#Ow4QSyF5fOddh(}&Za%5D(56}-DmD{URQdYN;u;EP+C
zwb$C-oCCju?u-t{KriD!{wXBR_eJaFOIdP#Xxv&B?-w*mb+w@+sX+=TDs3qUN+`|g
z7YS*trQOB*yhKGD;Cd%#_rrMoelRNbg8US}1#@NcT6vc(>93h4Mm<pHy~FE@!#z>p
zm3ElnyQ39#sMv%?;T6A}H8}DsU|h;M#(%5M7n{OX|4KJg@WgueWl|^}r3o%pOyjrO
z3At|LF_E;09~&d!F@CCz$rFP@#!JoSBxwqe?FM{37Fa(W%htMU?Hs4T_ORdNY*VOp
zt0<0TlrH_k^?a+iyMh1UdWUygJ)Od(cKRds_yqh<#z@e&c_Z<vd!b;;h?QxS7$a(<
zU>s`2BxX+XV;EVi6n|!=Veaw-u|1Fqp~3TniXg##Vy|_0wod1MwgpYI42IL$w`c^l
z!+fJ4l_Ke~lF=nG-GiJJ1IJEDEIKU8>%3XH2LA~jwZn8Fzkl5%ViO#?0)3c-fBuRW
zm3ltslVqY-J|2&#GkW~2CYGkdb8HnUBhw};1+K0`x*7P(APF;d%B{F5=w|A5Y~frX
z_h+Y~TQOA0fzkx5&hv=6c~MHzI$C?KTB#T_!@SWlw!+L_zVe}=u6L;#N~l>(6n_s4
z&nRrK@G>xD3_6~$s%-R;9k3UY6G_9xGOG}Qtyqe09q~Xx;iR{4p^yg#AzGxv!%L9+
za{x~Ec$S9C^uTFCFw%-Y%tV%g@{a&h>Oc*x0PwZDwa}`xk;Ku-;tueV6Z08?98%fr
z1sO^~e;Yma)5@xSQ}QrGbyisQrmML)#pC?v-LseFfa^tAWu|h<R;O}-VYwoRMBrxc
z-5EjB;5e2wI|)Sp$T;T7pX{M~xWbhEqGLE`o!-h!izC*@gqw??fnlbCi^TDJ7!KUP
zlv&O$dJAi(QVsnb^%&reu%fXlH3jy13jPGm*nSI!JdE2DM7*4;l6u>8bL#w`)bAHc
zaqxSok(!L%4AfxY*L0~X(5SGUdbA@B>`h7}!_wbm!b&`8QvXszgVK5R7{=9ep9c0u
z%CyP691>{A-kt1y3*X5flMN(OrFze7&{QZnfOCT>#4eK1sFlo%(-Ns^WLuou16&cs
z5IDW@Ldzv4#V}#>q7PDIb`KT@p_oBA|CH!mBN<YbHAiZRebw#Sj5#xuTzDe5Z|+iI
zZI_fDew@!kp&-=-I{=C44a!2>Zz{hc!Hk1|9u`ObeI%^&gPFV|1|HcPQWeAi1@GL3
z?^}Q!5NiF}3TfaBiy)O4;Tr^0^8Tfp9Q@drn(Ej=(P7fv4(m^`;$+AMmzQtl?Qvsm
zj83>h<)CIbxCLrV7cp&AP5hRXQ?yDfnilauFG^6&i<221%wi*?5xGeQhv3#s3ovmS
zS)2OgBmx-6Ksmfn;Y`__Cj|N<RZJVYP&n)h4(a0^aSP>beYI0GaSKrk8@;I6Yh-=Z
zIW$+6;?=tzb$@}ygXF~h{hMJ4g)7?YO&Hu>00wKY-#Fr&78M3Dy)5Eiq~dx2@#(8o
zSNy#{0zyG#(9||h89h^k7aTZkI2xh=1_L8&?V_91;kS31Yi)b9uoZDbU&T^Qs)={S
z8|6a$fstTu<<dsxoKq1KXYLvyFKHvjuqup*Z(^cN%AyQ45QR9UH&>40#iE_~ox(}o
z7(vQb_S7xtLhKga)p%2|q<92pp^Meyt}8de?R&`_Fz#xbl!Bp8d*8L^Mc1kMq-@Yo
z2l}1esGd)A4?;!6F%KZ8S2;1wO-fJO*acN=qL?XG?4mJt(7U8}%ymYaPKUy+^?rg~
z=XjmVJtesQd2efLzoB)FP5}Wb!u*wtU6FJvN&)Q(E+zee{nibsv0upK!lL72rS3>$
zj#b@AI~sqayuL^JociYWu`&(eBYVJ|O>XUDcDAT1)Y6IcvMx*1wdhCfsh~O!9Lx&t
z<i6@D9I#-nrD>tpL`|PQ-kEZ$TWOco)5OwxoWOMr82lS6tqC<-XH7!tYk#ga<RIjB
zv-hAYrGx&iwpo9w5gy~Qb$*e%_1u?o1Q@Ixp0nqRy#YoPMDWRG*rlN1E}*U;7Wz2n
zhKm})ITn;`+MVaED-x!oz;~eSgDS#7%4fJ|H1lE93+yHJ6bVx@qiG}g$>nBsfgUd;
zZ2q_uv~7{{?@2FoEYR4x_L}d@mhbSpEI5m^2qeal4DF8mjR&|ao3@X&096F_L~51f
zlxuYO6+R?9C;dd%nMloDWwrR+$5^oNk?g8Lf95`qY1YJ#$fV+cJel+si8h5jCH}}3
zW;cg)N-`;kenz$eI#HXV%oU~))mT&-oeYYc6@(;QUb1OqMz#r;?uM5v+MT$t{GDcy
zTb3`Tz#hqzZKPM2&k%tbE*1G5Qdo`ew|lBz<OJY?_Y^S^F*S#J&Dekcdbf1dXl460
z?`@TQ35;H&6K6?cushO%Ls_xzo;Ld*T5q_AV>XFEMvQ$eC&++o`-ipBe!CF^3(?{n
z=a#;bJrtJL8@skf;@+v8)<B<k^w*~H>nUTFtXcj68n0B!q1=63S2zG8p1a4&&r6HW
zaMT`d*w@2Z&&^NJFsRvs<<mf1VUMvE#hJp}AfB8*ejaMhYeuro#Gu{7yMD&ZtWen-
zE!<Ex##_fWg*BlT2obbCW^S2&^8HrQqaP26w&x||CV4B~yv<AN>jDoTk6OC|?aQ9P
zEN~rSXMPkAED)X^_9G^cX6@G_^A3tCPJkP-4|StIau>8BxGVd2>NKOwe5@~C?^<Es
z;%^TO#id6J?K1l17q6FHd|I&WBiF@8Lk09rXtr$a7M-g5LoEls%Q;&0r}nlKYHY<g
zQ}{)SW^@g?);D`)#X#jx*U?)bK=H=H&^N%-Us!+(ti{_IlbJw!_d0f_wprE2f=Q1E
z-Ujxd&~E;P-8J_IvOk5-EEru*v9278riWVkGsPsU6gAJ%np|*9N?B|h?&T4Fx*3Kl
zfMxXy*!$WUFkxZx`++XhH3``(#(<<lwfvd~k|+KP*sBMWOdZ^7?`o>h-NMOoNSO$J
zhp^rI0`}rcZz6aeTnSI47BGa5X<I<&j9tG69e)9P>pky1ibYIdH<g^!mlj7*U~`H7
ze2!gzk+w;DVx(~wb=**@k$>d6b_9h_uKxaHH0+r51NSxW8)7y9%@$ut2~sk0p*}5e
z#&9gV<~;lL7}&xwoxF|EcuqNDc7Q0$$oV0`m6j6KwNq_`KQK1*;*EYk%PIckra#x%
zg#w6QG`C|4*`{nQNF=O{Tp96>7o1wKX<ZfH?`^je09zHW>DOlJchP>q+ey<_@)K|2
zNn>9gMfjw(A*%^JplKR{Ah*Fi&~#W|F%l9P^j;TTjcYIX>wQO~M{*kH2CooTNg;Rt
zVx*9Z&_pCYxsK!=b?8PFZohpmk%!QXMGm=X#T7G*sQubbwoc3}33>~15NH%(ayRVT
znCNTHwPNY+5)U>W_+qW^1$IsswiZ)oKkGQ&*Fx^nM{n)Gl{+|+6a6SOV=b915N3bt
zNH{%kEMoG->_MH|Z}H3HXCbmD8C9!XvJ$-yT(*ZFPanXn7_N1&hv#h^I<6FK9P%Sa
zU&pQd#x&zQc$K}1;iBm`dL0Y4KsK+h!meu(q#E}?^E6nE^{-foYY6yznRc#T*EOve
z+m(vVdE#;2D4d=X1lc(K2tH;B`=L~RX#<xAhB5t(F9+_;Y3tT#vu)%P+?ET$mV*;e
z@S2o0KO)B0d8t~CZHDaTo@|WBSmgA8H&B(w7o?CK%NBNy-RK4lez~B$YgT5Fz>hF-
zH3YY+XDnqqn7R&^(E-1LS~DE&M|UGH)t<n<iXGCG5O;;qKCJ`0j=BY(ZbcaWK8v_E
z_#zmpyBrDv5U$(~n>BfFfzCDXv?Uzs1Z?&j=?AY7EO}wy@S=8w6}$mzVOh^?W4dgY
z)R(pA?(kXz7dcL8Vz_$j<rRD>Ib4h9FnmxJ>K-<9-Dsv&s)Q=YIH7CUCaJR*c^&NS
zt-Iu^&YAC0J6Nz<mQu<%*#AD$**W#WAQyRBu)EfP*swG&7TDJW5f^5=H^0)=OnPoA
zRPk75K*#(QVxI7c@w_GSjx-XG;Q~*<{0OSck{S+lwxMO{*JXy>Z6%Ml+TtPFoT6<<
zZ+EN2j`V26JNh;|=f;|oAKD}M+nsI6ck)WWbGH2#!mUXqY&@=+X3;fuUlS@|sT0oz
z#!#a#8{*B+N{v1D^>2A$3i;-mZ9A^EIiq+6)~x3ju?J7js>WPXEG(2L+SAxjB&PES
zDi>JPW6UScc3xrlMeHGL(V7TVH8GYnAuW7^wn_Lj09il`AZGCMIbwl&1F9Z^o*bSP
zZ(A~vItaZw;eq){T{-=-<=YPw0!NVG#&_m?$w&9}IF+jWyL$BwfcbR7pS26lN){K}
zVeJ18Vh{d^%!gco1=(0%P!>`cYe>rGi`XM_?a~0vsDeHSCc;_0w`9Jet_4Yjf(Rrt
zq*R89QN;-a=qOEA;<F&@$38o9H8sg9$Cu1Ni<QC;Nrv6?$BO!~2HgvzDudjC6_@ck
z^gk_!T}QE({H=NSTC6!uI|;uusl9esLLnVvepC*)C70zS9>94{r8LyLF!zUhAFfpc
z6w!~+-=f5_WtZ@i9CnY|*cW9F0bR>@qFz$Pm>I)W$z4cpOjWcRsG2y3^D4KgUw!A2
zI&d|`WL=6uwB@qk1-xK?A$E$8V-(Mj99nJpZz;`BwZ+Z$&eb(H2yk)RLm-CP=YJx0
z*2q?#Cb1)ofb)VT2xNabo%=dwuT28$__MPdN*m6n_W|A0uAQ&Gw>W3rvQZ{J!RH|Q
zY<?1{(Nc2|9k7UlTpnDGR99i50^Sn_z#|G)e~9(-Q`pU_)D?WQFJ!NH;U8o#FI6Dj
z{0rG5V_GAFlf_<k-~ltZj_`qa8cLAT4(DiMseRA%A;JfOEoXS1Pn6bSqh2$u9|k%b
z)<F4=!Nea?N>(xHRjFM_5eY&d)f1h{eb@gNvIlcz_l4}eTH)juK0#kf)=njW>v*5W
zj(#C~oG$>2e~>+}T3`Y+|9Vh*pyFA->KEjPQcKuM+=}VF(NPL%8?#~{4W=tKYW#Yn
zvvm&39ZTN2nh>pR%{MF1d(%0zKCXV&7_>fc)%y>!N4u*#Pt1w_>T2s!yNP$6AoaR_
zMXsA_Fjtj~Y~um7ZhZl<K$;nL1=0T36NOtk?iuzDX0-ve1?KjEtdfVAT9C-*lDi=h
z%GkcvNGg_1sN}$%_aKT&<w4hw$*gba%fc~OjgNS02DOmF`^$}N)|B|C(HF6Yn5YtM
zbdirqbYa{>)kY&*;skzzKpk-G-VVEIgn1Vm7&f*U1p+h`ihieRA_DiY*^C|u1!56}
zS!B<`JkFJRhi(hBppF^9F5|QY8?D<R%ssnxxOFWr8sqw}R7jEgV?Bbmh-Bl!ujWcN
z8zJn>PUvM~`CT`MU9c@w91<C7Qym2kM0Z2IyH{kMmfyZosS<yRC(q>i1H`JwL0b3=
zafsElLTk$KgFh6k5a!}Jf>ffzSYoQA8#IpFX*|8hgINaqsjbVeq^$F=(1xf3KY&qC
zFCVC<{}*ld6kORCzKc4xv0|*)w$YuWW81dPl@2@Zj&0jc2OZnCZENTE-)CR$i&J$@
z)q64LsG7JMHEYcAd>?dF{J{~V1ST6++TfSh!+%4%fNjvZhwkcp8S(g$n>0ebgb*-R
z`0dcUkR<fkH7Oox^Gq)4S@6O~Ua$h&47WM;N@t~4Jxt-GI;6Fhe21m_rH%9xXNdl_
z|4Q=Qf1``#HLK$={p5VN7iY)0_96M7pji7Z{;WO8D_@Y}!K?_mZ*$7!Hp#uR%R}lz
zZ2rSN`Rn=lv32U9lE3a6l^)mN^K#fn`9t=0P(bw}=A%l33(A}ALw_jHz+vBJzlAxM
z$mJ@7>5ZYPdS!4h<0l_#*yp;=LjKZy$RcdQ7uP%Rx0B2Jc1m9XPGD6gi0PLe;~zv4
zd$?h7K`QK<DfYxO&KgTy_HeZvJdjj!8;;-2?r>8Baa1({?6`&Hb-0?!qFkAWOkuWw
z?{>cw*mfpGr7;gsaa_?7lYQOGAU%mP{4s{tlk>Uf3z`Jan}k>ji_QS=_!dq6`mvT=
z-SXJ2AiZ~3>cL7f`Hpl+hHSG!yd<t5#vQcc^%~H0-_o4Cn)qnGe(4K&w?TSIl=5Dh
zc@K3EXLQy4qFgo8r_h&C_3&=UOj#z#PF&t!6C^`3JNe#-+N2^=ASi3HjTxh2<Km$W
zQxOBRa1T*1Y*g}oXmnv=J$e5)C$r#{;0NzJBA`~a5&6CKLT1HW#M_J@cyqud!Vs2l
zSKuK1V*VgK!O&xna4OSY$)uj&_EI=E(^dvmJX0{8-2HEY9heL9y4k17rPIqrj=(02
zKs(qe-)qU5ew5nYxk*vWr*Vm&DvsYh-dQ;G$f8!aRW!-=rd#)0EuIO|N6}4V`J=u@
z?WRvr=YERdt$&>Z)A=I{vgMFF^2)|Y-&4u^UaIEbMNglpDBXuj=;?dKDL=(dhqHd4
z*FG~5ftUHp4HEU5IZw~IRapNyzvS)n@dwx>AD_nZib~UOm*Zvcn#=L$Af8TGnGAqg
zN70NU;ma70=(05faS=**`z+J9S0RX*xI^rdK>ss4e@VXzbKK%iE2IHm!pmu}=!zf?
z&F5ra^Lw1a$xy+jZhufjB^zBWn~`u;j@A`FLE5@uJ)v7)N9^IL#Fy41M{!TB4?NgP
zkGP%iuA3*`kPd#9E!JJNxWc^08?&o%xXeji(Bl~R<T?*02)c9>I0vEDuRfxjUnOt(
z1b2oXA}Moidbiy+)MuBl^YYS*XG;9~vW9U9<4#?yHR}kL?JF*C!+vV3`8BOFRxM5(
zzHpOiVZJz}9fNDIQ!%BUD5Vy;T_;EvD2<046WU>1o)5NXUMY3#yceX6J%m#eBW|Bo
zdhiCxlctO0x*@!|Sngs537zVh@r~kHe4Yci@?n=o+#A>S_kw%Vtji|%EYv4azn$`_
zxpSF_0-HnvK%m^;?BACo^`t!@!4E7QBsVPLZ$-DfFQei>4<ZB`E??CV(XIbAt@6J{
z@;#m+uIc+-6pPGT_#?;#ns4xT4#Y?9*)qTQDr6oHw{EyPcen`50}{}yXFUC?U;NnK
zA~k?YIIpw?&-#}#<+WMAo=p(%jGIw!(EO?ZHj~v?XnsXhhn9y<SuR2rJWuYI6++x9
zKK`ARK4pi(jQ}utGG8~pgA^kJl)HhoMT5y&1g-E@>B<W68X%L3e`Z!Oi?CtL>+i?z
zXTtHf6~CdkM7MB*5Z>xIF1nI0uJ?U^bm4!vUSsuo(12kUqJ-$=7uS;@4gcbL&{?a0
z-B8m@Fa9PnxICJCoKCus9wfRy7*~Ls9C4*y&Iu%i@ZAzV;%s@1kxWi&HpbW%3`^&Y
z$7B~>5i_g^5I0SEZm{pyu_ia~w#wbdCl7MtoX!}~PHrOk-H^X{2vhQoPA$4!O%Q)y
zIX?R0dh9Hy=YqDV9;iD1hwC+U+k@CpXONblb<T8`Fy7<*nWBwIR!svA+@B-|OUqZ<
z_x-iQ{e|IHLm!JhjOA?=qJ155ktvmI?&TA%Q5G~LgqKL!ujBwqp|^ZyPer}e&#=(G
z_fsU~wDTtrKEaD<9g?@Od*T_H@W0qHm>Mu_N_vE-&K!-uv|h+dM0RUD+hpJ5+<#i{
zYkqr9%gQeGl@(fDt(-hMli%RY_82Ixf%2y{VRzee5fa)hck1H)=}mK-dH?-?Yd!Vs
z+f?x{tw;7G@~^VsK^=Wy5$lQB*M8{m=Z2Rd1@ee!nymcpYIyB?#%tU=#D-VLYuu&&
zqs%M(QXuorDhV_PY?HBHIqGtcAN1wl=6)9%Tc}OzivB0!v18mw%5KSS|H*^VpOp|g
z5boAl$OPj&^6Y-xG@TWX>=pZ(vkJx?hHu6($A<TT=N^o<$*6f}n3n|m4oQPi+Cj{H
z+|S^44FDCG6*iU3^a*e}5M{!MMKMU&*}n~3=zz&BhEM03IWQWIdC+?k#^yqE{ZO53
zzywjMA@+6kBv9y(eSY}@b^xbr6aKP-edmB??JTq09*P(W(5=4vco%))l8E|_N|6qz
z0hryUp3zyGofS{3d*JJt1dw#K-7GdMqO-_6V4WjLo1|#n1@TqyyXZP@pekm#Y3%T~
zDPOW@I8__ryhQk2`QDA2`l(k;gg*1ayIL@uIdOuogALW^$}q%bnK?7$IG}jp=O}~-
zU>ct~HMy1^mJFue*#Q;$0(4?s5(t6?kPk}?VD?fSyY6{(gqs8ZJ0FA_V$YQjWNAXc
z9ceo70}92jgz)N%pTAxa<HRlwW#P}1)-yT8${H58{AKyFddfcfQC!xs;cv)C)kvJx
zH*dq61hFPv?AN)c)?2SIPiH*%-xB+y(tK>%Y(wgg10n*CR*yRw8y_EYabiYD+DY(r
zP;A4CaYvFDABkbZgD3SSi3x<dmCtD%(|*j&{73Z^?$!7n-k-;aPf_DWEN&lO6ZYHT
zyEw9&xj~x+hm#v*^LVeyW6vEi_M&YX&;F?Mhb~@CtY`gT*(65q_ZPd!F+-fV!Zy7w
ziDRl?Qm-4w?ilTf;y<ZJw5hkc-DQ0VmkbWQRT;S0y(keP6PS@^fpR#pOP`lhJ>)m9
zfyD%g(4FgI0BJyPbSm}K@-F5HT_by)+*dB}0ai0yg+$`<L8uST;NslZK7r;BwzRkY
z&SRmyDfFcE+B^83-b)WM`-s%kV7Fb_-aQE0#_ncg|BTv(1<4hi$ABgA_UUHdx_E|E
z%X_x&2nRb{@otAq)Lij*+qb(twcM+D=DPq-rdfPDI~h9=w?*+^1pW=HJ}14NgeLRp
z^tO|2Bla$yu#Ai#T`qViPGl}@hEu%~v<iKyZ0~;vhb6yI*G?dkpcss94}DR+fu~PW
zyJ%l$9BAC*VI|^(jrQz1@F$`gR=N%#-Plm{&S4_)X0egGiv~D-AVlymBKr*ps$S=b
zC^i6<0hSMJHt-MoT537`dnVJvMQ_EG<1Ah;G6*V%<K#j%z))y2_xCH?r|?zw+U0xf
z1%&YJ>eWPhsAu^8X#SVg>s`D3ad>*WI`w7s0>koV`|N)@al9e#sa{Sj@HteIuC9{v
z9{Oz!34y)t2rPa~7QEIs!h}ytUi^HI-O{;R<;mv#^gY<VO&y%DI1kU9><JqTRY*rA
z2)VTx3xkV%2Xck+kw-RB=XoUvqSum~Shj<G^l(C01h+8*sxJV5zRmO4HuWPP+Xs@4
z&QH9Aqq*FdlZwU+_g5b=uGs(?B|jW=|5@XwmCIiLmUO^PCx>C|En=g^l^{<SiG_mb
zhPUbW3Ff$o%f&+x=Lr*{TwS4fW6%G`>iNkliS&^@?&2a^3T?K2?UF4M<UVzQX}EUY
zq-g8)K-V+lE-rt&AKs}aD`u5*{4*8GZPlTIc%KIG`EGJ<akCNGh}`ui<fno3UV0I%
z_4)0M^lsUAY?p-e18VPE1&%E&XTImY3maVtq-~Dpsm{_@f0U*r*b+SPbzvXaZ3^pN
zABqRdOZ_Dkj*!<8KH21<REW3P+TWd&eh!Q=j|OM9D^RvEYm$%^ji!q&1Rb$_S9&~M
zCPgbMRgV?Run*C>0*Ay6r&=Rdjd@gEvUB8_Z07_@78{F~!ENWNk5?<Dy!q&RN-Nuh
zHy6-NQ;(k@_maVo2fc81mRQCfUk_ny+Eu2LtdjLOZ=T~hh<D-i%U5vzjNe#>SDj*R
zn^WI6u1!mLUBWz=YY;EtH7==dH_aTMkuGEM3Lij=Q|{2MK|^0s@8mzJN9IQ^U{h!x
z>zCW?;1wLoS01RVZRjV0$P$BWz&>Zh`S!@skeeWV6@%P`Ln!&;&mwcn3i_0{LUK)w
zn}pP%Ir$%{H~c?R@8wJC87xybJ6kqBojgEx8<P_|6_1r~#|KD~?_VYw<~Q&1n|E9u
zx)y+hQFnc6+HUb2{nah}e!US5oEO-;GjrQk=TNl&q*_X+0d;^g1zl!?uNfHd>KxN|
z8SHT%c@07MBwTk1M(8)dccJ4kTf%t+Y~LC*_(23r(%5wQg?saUt#o+@VJH?yyW^x8
zbN6%eW!0U3LA{q*-EzhaoXyyKuua?SFi3><H8-SJ%#r)gZ`U7_C0|RHzVY>n8e^jJ
zcGkN-a5rGl*N=UVS5%bOUr>*^F+9Db>wP05sps6qT+ybuz0Dx?NB~Al`d8P=Q;~!s
zX4kDv=jp{`v5D-a%&uQ)ia}h~V2cCuxcf)=V}=~^Rpw>43v8ZT$49feM=Epf!Uv}6
z*<3M(0h|f?aive-Vxqwd`o^gDdrY6!TeJ0<3x4(P`>nrDYdZSh%&Z#JS(savN>h-A
z$b`we1Ng_Dp<rkkQ^GV>E5S4sf|Aij^{)y@=8{*G(+t^NnXY^$D_-RP?ethbZaeY!
zGa+k*f4?BjnbB>wcX<d0<lt~G^}XYl#i*#hyn=Q0Z?5ceIsyy|vcwuHo15{cxwI1W
zIB_0^!I2AiBLxHf2Nrea2{j?2DEP2p<aY$8miJo~-QeoV2WTH%RYx`{&#oyH6OVFz
zkZuHY&%yI6t)-Fdr%Kkqc{MgWOW%l}dS3bA2l6*=BRU;%Pzkek=AWVVY==mIhdwlq
zA27SYVN7kvYZ~5{eUY&+5+d`Qai3EqBVRWt%^mSm%)fCNG9vD9Ra+GQbaML`+4KsC
zM~_DCHb*rPT#M<T7Z|&BoC&&{=Op$&G>Qo`!%r;cD9gI3nHB#9TWvu04#Y)nxS#3~
zZ^zZu$DH0T_s2alii54EQr!gj1PEhB6A@1o{Uw88qiQ;4RdP%9*SGcOR39&4B~X!{
zN5oHjYNHRRR=Ph-E6M2D5`=kzhvh8c&A!Zb59sD!RB_n~c#Ng9)(Y%AkW-kmwnl>1
zqBRYPBM3=AXcZm07puZ_u8i9kOM-8e7*Ynx1Tz5Yq=v+R8i=XPrde^VVh3=kjHXF(
zsbc1EsZ0gmhB$!zViCcz*vd2oB2ry(0zj2uSpeIQp>IIU;3%9w^c0dqJV29>D0DV$
zsirt3vASSW1Uy>P;J9tEQ21dqHq{|CU{DAW2AiT(TO0=vGPnTYn3>|clrZqCTp49S
zY}|&JH+-wIlmbu#?ije|3|tS<r7B2|lL>Lfp7}mRDaHht(UPJD5{0;;&FD+<1MNa6
z5Ut25XbKwRD1hL=%HRep=ihMvF^munoEcdu6(A0R6<I-ToP-!Yf)(i=1Q1^A1hJI5
zpel|}%o_0*j<SqY2HIb=Y&6Mm#(x;b2&}<zl1Lg-no@~z(!k>246K{-xB$fG<T!)i
zH-<fGpfJL-=ny<`FvOR6j~_S~Oo)A>0Ng})mKZ_@8X!JP4<(Crq208`O$PhY?O_5*
z5TC>1J~3}RfF$tG>2atbzNCA8z)N^uhP`UB53)TyU;w~bYKUKK18_qPbb#lj*^>i0
z!10pqxdE%;z0`*MfdN=I5pl^OXP7sC;&4JbNcX&elki^ZL+oM?2wvJlDq>k!H^Fg(
zA*yh+I2af=DRGh^XXtf0L*!!a@Lrlj@<3F0FU28}U;)y-N3jc>I`JWQ;A-$1wP|^r
zPskeio;^?}c#YDuK8`=c7NbsSh)9eJu2pZyPRyTrPaSv~Qh`~gE|nU`DW;Ct`hAEF
z$c>0zKZy4KKANQ8&Pc@nf6W-N`2S7?k@){5Cf&QThMXD=XR8QYF5gE7(CA%{1|pI=
zNu}Ms8W~kpTWZ1X@Da7CNA7Dg%<iN`M81eKRJK@x{lj1c*wji5GS20eH)`f2-qJHk
zholtu>oOi3QPel46!wor0FKev8&ayi{{qZ5&{SFehEXaIS81e~%M*$8WxQ!f$?G@G
zbohfJH)s44u-iB^PbL}Zq#ZSH90ka499l3=0BC8OTC*xgqH7~98m9p8w2>;M2q9R%
zMfPC-5(mOqvDT2WLXvfoIpKaw13)%N%{#rjbzw2S9Q*n;wn#?`@tHX=dLN%@SWl}&
z(l;FC_V2gVTxjbS$s8B;7izoChqz7eU}RnzGxFI?|A>sycAd)W1f080+ciopm^Dq4
zm3+6+bNvGV&#X=aFgCVGeTjGq>*<cXXSi^4ZH`JyA&ea{#xzSa6GnV1GjT?IOQ*mX
znW?-k^@Z8IDuA1-t{vk}V@cuePQ#VWcDZE|{I)8`=+BzQnueJ<pg5v(uVW)zIfX<b
zikh{PbYwi=g$B_}GvIS(2ZzzW%90O%r#PZ$8BO?P3ROE}YNsXURX?n2b|(cO>9!`^
z_@qw%cX}rrU|@5dD1TFk;+HF)eL7{K?OWDQ&39qK_>r6VS=_(b_#_qi_n3m@WC~Wh
z!@z0#(_~YoZ?~kX;Z$AiQb+AFvaMXF@<P3wvhiX4<PW8d0mCq3^-WAPvS)mB5C1?M
zn&a3Gnk;ExFeA;9`sx5geab&5DdSxVkx&XA^EyMrjFe!Yq0UT(PP2AWbZY8ls_>@3
zWW(Kp&*?%Q-(i-^MQgG4Y~aQZ-WSjY)g9pYjWgE({e?0&elLL=K9e+a5dQt=)Fk|S
zRK^WV?&6O_n_z$GBQ>!>xcA_UXOp@|gxvgKeX2oyvOBV4-@qyKuMO7TF;gtOw=By(
zNmD>ESa>3-WlWLM1V64RwA}aL2lN%0BRnx-G7hPu;{>7|&KF?os7i1a#b6fc9Z&Ap
zeL+)?@Pg7u=wh4X+^<ZnqkX}|WP@GeN1|draDpOCPh89G*;CDM=Tw6i<Q}cbQ-XU-
z>tFRLU#N03gD=P|Hhw&Gi5{Vd8BpJGiZvJ8B7*E?mH`mwq^>q2O;DEnxjM>C6jMzJ
z$Uj+E(&`ey?SKubx?R6?n}1J*CfKn~jqly0!&OqdlIOYwFJR!4HtUNs8OT|xjWoeo
zQnoH5I3FMfS5dnX<?aV3{XVUtY)BAT#&CY-3<kur<DhFxS%T+22OprP$pl|eD{zHP
z*^=EcIG?8Op^lSsWD3}mJd6KuPPPj6hQCKUk=Od3Q%Xz!fv87I&viMGaIc;dlfa2u
zl9@3hQNn2!(gD^O*J&;$S5VJtwhqBTY4(n<C_d7LT_R+*4#UA~W)D?HPJtnfRwkEf
z<S!XNq%Rkd4X-L!Lf3CHTSB4wdnX+<qVk56Q->vtSdu_U4^++AaS4nVN)4eUMpTd6
zsdX5D-;W=?9WofA#3JV&1!7Thk5XX)v8b@5uQg?~f`9I1rS5$-cVHK8jT9M@th&V*
zA>9M+QSC`Py^Bm>apMgA-Z=nYhF^x$g4cpe9sX+K2qMp<5|a>v5%YE~ipeOY%)}S7
z7NZlBb}ssvG5kk96ip5eJ?|gutQfe-T!R!YD<gnO>=j~5U<>i+mGI>Q{t4;o5~Ps(
zNdo%YSF2$7Nx0<z`U^23_W2iFDAa_c=OYZn4nhSBU}eJou<cNP!rY1l1weP8`V|L$
zg7H9mqCNzmzVUZEfL}s<^gCu=5s2qrp<Jzoo`y6d8Er3u3`Ad(LsJ|vuBf)42!&Dn
z{<5r*z7ehn2R#r>`LEaLdXCq~K9z23Z>#kwZ{zB|Vzz9?f>(q6tIe<R!@I)R`u=Xc
z4gHS49qupUssC5q6NLqd2kCth0;Q)m$ngy9t`JNd^bYcCOAqO6L+)j7lk1IjO%D-W
z2W(q)qk=1dXF&;od+H`r3&6ZVc0X>XNd}Tk>rwlnu55-p^nt>1-icZkgB+^`9jjq;
zE>}UX;F}O<Fl(?aI92Vi7aq+`Docgu7+s}$bZ2uyOlyUH$}Q3G@cbzV+v=)7TLpWW
z4Yn4>R?b%5Rx?Kz<z~ENE+4LDyNwnv$J<M;Nb^E>6=!kh-L25Q@!|X7beKiz>|%%F
zq^ag#oWlgLi<HZ53vM=xtl3rKL8pp+e5y4l({p_GnE^!k2I;!-gt)r#1q-rz^>*VQ
zoVNELoW+Y%bNB^B#Qffd(SwU{4EEY4TlgB(8dMs{RkBr@UytGy*s6;t9JYZ?rb<?2
zkk@B#;b|=~HgXp2f7|Pb_}E+P`Pj>d&>CJ2s{g}IZ%$F%_w0u~`)9bvYIq~!!gSKm
zqpm!UeHs3p2-|M>p{L2z=DSOsSq<;9>U2s5M6U{-Zm4k3_7$Y7d3U@bF-L1RxwpK}
zgqP+>{ie%YUy7W4kDR0&lj`Qa7`>j3Ub}A8@N-c-Aai<6B7RqHkc2S6r3NsKKJHL(
zma*<&VXMjIGuR;U3lljQQHD~B|E$L`e>hZ@t4Bfs-8Otj;r7sT;DPOtN-|w`$P}M_
zIuBl+8xNX1n%hJ|f&-Amord%?a3Gx((gX*2D(Dh-S|M}6at5A{FLlc8*itFE!~x6A
z3pyGr=nYOO9MX91i8fBo66&vzp(Fy-?ekQ_hGvDGrrdqQxrRb!CyAe5KnadR|Ap3T
zqQRyDrNwv_Yw#4e1q!guf5qQM=aHc<V09vM&eUPm-{CUqJ=W8r>3kCg8J&9|N7O6q
zY;G^LwiWUe#<;f8#faU*&`$OxM6dznvfq*VgGdwc^~oZ$L81R+7L^y-as$kFp@@HR
z;6o!|>Z=6g=jS&2x4>T$B?S2%ijl`U;H%)xU`^mn5KUlQkX+zg5L{sPFl$hns4eI<
zC^Y~UFim7lXia!c@D^}K!7aXS=We#{Mo=M$5@Z7w2_6ZC2#yGL`?bx(1^gYv3t9$g
zfl@(upkt7b2nGxC6yg!MD`XKw8(1a?MT9>Gc?!W2oC7iqEE+@$f)NokWXnMzg}?x5
zcT<QU=in<smq4k4jewhhlttika226wps>JpK)xcxq&R4hdtiAWTM;NUm|!q15Gg4p
z8rTy!L^tde1REGJh+qqX2OI@NWC*DV4gleGL-K&&4WV$syg?{A(3W7<AcPz!8Zg^+
zTw6RaWD&3k?Wi2oXb1@~9B>@4LvRByA=o#}E4-~u@N9?=@F)H)%x>Q9O|SsyjKZtO
zK%D&8uQF>wP#NI9U{8o!lOSR654b0d?pM(4S2-zp@D0c};;(hF|CyJduL!#NLCxR}
z;Qq)@*jve<cn~)@HP|5dU$8gAEB0;z&?0y>xIcm?wj<INX7_*dPYi@UOb3)F`W3_$
z+?H3j3&^P3sJk8{4hjN6g0KwXYDj8OYjCcRwj@EK-LoJPh%5*Jcu$Bco-NjHRIp80
z0R&H|E5U9La8yWQ2w&JMQbW`&@a|^tN60SdCFB-VN9HZ!?sbqJ$N|C~;sRm~{t0Fa
zrF#+F0CEkbC0bjz89DHi{3-zIBewe!{Ye<&Q*!GQ?v3RCKG*;Q#tJ5iB!UKs_74o|
z|I@?&^A4MmTd#1wB!QRYSAI}kvE7g8PeKs?4SsTCzQqc$e=0zK=Eu5h=t_$!<wK5D
zUwKT?VypddQ_P$@!=ZspX~--S3qx7P$Di{mOYYXS8bO7rE<!8Akz=sqIdiA}877m+
zkJkkaxP-+l%S0Q&Brleb|0gM*$*D0gnfK&#neCnZx(8)|$L#-E`G|;!MzTez8Qmal
zrUt`)dpsl6Qqj^<lElOa56d3iFsGrcu0M)}^K3bgc2Qb*EoAKP<^-7K%qwVy!u0D$
z$X+$&q``I#oz2j|-0`*uv%cx1lPEOBvQ~3{-WzK=EjIm7@At8Duhy#M@;T>XuEu}P
z?DhP(MA!}Set1D_$1}Un_y)KIsms+%@7GKokCdV`+@&%Qme)IW=vA`azMO^fk~goi
zT?w+;ayeK3Mp2Y;JQHaDZdAxt%5s0@qPnn@8sv@A2phI9;pus{CQ8KNdJI!hI`PYX
z4Z+FNCa%fbirzdQO(>&WoJgz3@kpgp{&MUNrV+-};yxj3cJ}orGwdc3o2Z|n!^1;L
zd;~?J6vbF#;<aah@MXzf?l6vvMdXw5lxIaY61V9ouw9R~RG=3MmmG5pDQt8EeY##8
z+Z5uAk8?-tCt985QX+YP)`TTv50b-B@ElD)zAk#U@SvS3cb;$#i9(%E6hr=ujpF?g
z0e(=Z8m^!_S0Q^Do`l`ZIpMNYpxk?So+i}7e!j6P^nKeAAcOD(jR$iB*Kl{PZveG!
z=aJO7X_cziDIIRmj!Tb8h!-b2BT`|apZaho-X(kRlZeax4y~cok=61AECb&60`$W?
z=wCL`l#K5I2!(z8SE!_`q+7!T(Q`wMVj`uQew$3_Z+j`uXz2_&DR-S;JMWh=()8Z+
z68KX@k!pXqXy&a=g967KX$_Rs3Bk^nYXo0$RsSf!1_^MPj}}rz21itVFV~TH<jYfn
zMW|lyEEys$AEnJ?r}T0Cr^i~(=~mHIJT{MK-B$Jb@A(Ap-iU+6%1Xg5MlQT&m0awi
z0h#D|HjQp<WhM)oBceIkJn8|qyj^0WJWYu_O5HT!Q88Sb#XV-8-gm1X5!F<2o>hzf
zE8U-=jSz1d6^SVoiAyqZlK8aL5h~zxQO+t!`VVj;xzeQ&3Bm=(kjeh13@{Ox*R38g
z*nr>)iG8SM)fH3jeiYmK7fS|iE_!tZ`Z;x{je#Ua;m!GJpHJpyb%yNuBPDuV^-2|j
z$ToG4`*U4g{kEfvWg^IRN~%QlVZwt9^L$SHYgwPO_%M>r7KfPe>|IvvHFKNL@0h<N
zi`G6yilUkAD-j3#q&HxR!z*oZG*eSCO78Qx(M15Zy#IxM$d)yz8$c~(!~2sl%o%gN
z#q2AQPNRU`B)455h}KFN*L(%McELUxfdW$XKMVajR*^@8=;v(ligGL<J-^s&ALF~~
znX9lYzFWt~+&_s5n_Ui;v$HmI$FSLLSDvVNN5{fE^%l#yM3p$tD|Xde0qJ1FDRQJ*
zOm4ez{A96~-~3O)-{#PtOUZ9kBtxzA=PVigBT0xi1f%BijC62`kn`h>uu$mrTHvgX
zV!)7T2P?Y*?(xy+nL^OzoBXXZj+wQ*S-K6TO}T2dgS_{I7=WGM>=fy-YVg$Z67a<!
z%LCo1qvv24S4|&M=D%q-E}L-rc-|j5BPScNw)4(g=B7PLIg86?BCvAGBa_Ht<>lxD
z^q3>7lD{vG=AD{N-)r6>NhYDh{{1hKD4BqX>Fw*qZQQM#Zv;>%(?7WhQJ>S`25DiL
zI=aEfCVN>W<x!!+b*EibW93hNf81CiBJih+pkZ(Hmi@tY|KaqWd-o4|cHL7Y>!0mZ
zvVEP(`~qn9ytzygMPzh;tf6dvLAIFQP;HjTx_t9II7z2cgBFXfGp&l~*{N;(gKHh1
zSAl-kPAk9?=4etvPB6pKmG^-cS6UrNSswRCO=_5~z!Y0~GHBdpFoqaL&a##Ghc24S
z+LX8f2F$pWaPt7bv4u+LypTE}JK~uzt1LyE<|c&jtrkLn%4rS3a{q94WU@FhTY+9U
zTisuXk=VGCaRzhBIg9vW<}6u?pVE?~X^*#W8?G(lW&g*dxmp=o-D>Kj+JdYC%VHJ&
zc$+iQ)MP>i`Ih@DBVCYJ15W0a8s1WOVn))(%Fs9+WYT0#8VjI$3O-uDpDw3w%RMS8
zTHvT@sA~;oroHswkcI$#feO(kKBRHDcg57m?x{U3VPMXLK!SByOX<zin}y2ru*Jy8
z!4@)hHj2>Y+h7RKui_)F^1(dt&DC`OImB4&r>KU%c1l-s6emrP=<&mJu_6DcQjsyT
z`(iB;NhTu(dk<$14snda=$+H9VB{Hg?pmOWv9?usMl`1L$GN|2YM3|E|JnxuUABPn
z<TQJ9R-3<YMt}ZDMS!Z1nzC<}!~K@QDAxPaH!7b;K-Aqmvgd#+p`E-Z$L>x$Ko3T4
z);e;_6~WxCs(p|Ey+fevCJ7sx4;_j;a;xrj{Dg{r&y~+XDOgDF3m-gxEJS|dlFSy@
zvp2?+u-teL=RLn)SM@NxP!4&LW*w_Nk*ouvGtDMxAQD0%6w|*oW1n_M1jS%0@Tm(N
zYi53v>(3idz*bx(rM?*+xgR#UjHfow7GQlf-G7Pc{#Q|`OOwWS4|DxQ|H72*`$D}(
zo=iDBv&L>jWj@)k;bHyQ>9Dyx)%H4fq33X(;Y`E!8mLxIoPvWq`SOr9k2*14bQ$op
zGu3gd;QKI?b^Cg7FZdBlQssF)F=6FFq}6tClu0z}-U&L?y4qYc<QmDzo0AjQlGZ{i
zWC&O0GA^|J_jOFk1rB@Je{yYn@5$Q<-ss~*b=YqZo%=M!GDECLcTZY$0jkuA_0!fD
zLxXI^(xlW1N=}7b65uy#Gt<Xh6n2^Q!<Xp}u@fGQw&f)nwYQ8VF3Z};e(k(;WwIMH
zzR<avib$J&yB2{KuXLt3SQF^9@%rVo7kO6n9qV_>eBeJbRY<qkqurZlXHEe(-lRO;
zKY4^QYB7?ngc8q=SclcqP_b&@jQZ-x%;llUYJH<++t(WAY&X0q`Pq7uWJ<2G5XgiG
zuKar~RO4ejz;|UKZCamS2@{9x2FkzIw@vmM=8S4rm45JGpcG?bWX`1RyTDfPxpy*F
zyKCQzXlupgXd;}h*+FLh-rD0${P@#hd#au9?OI?|Mz7>Mse&9yg^0F3zXiFq6GAzQ
z+4I|DFtLT3j0RWy`{u|?TcMtsx=BS*z2jZ1mi|H0gBePqbAzCwAa<VI?2?u_`jZ^u
zeUFPO5ktIe%~ff<nksd9m3$1RTV2^n=&>%VI)!#cNvG7Fk(+9QTEQdFbtAFBun!N4
z!xjcAG0NnvD^Q=D@Jh;MbsCZ>wK6!HbNiP;b^z4(5@+ei-n^K{<a}qPV##v>e}nw~
zO6RVO=0%Y**OH0+@Q0N!CDjLU+@JLV6G_Ik{uc~ka`(zqhE%Xsj*498Ii{`Y)o&4Z
zTEh%w2A`Gz>m$eWC`5=STmS{Vb?s?`Y_++1+x|wu{`t|1R6zQMl8I6sNB&%?>viZy
zSzRgRMc&3febOT!|I|DH6M*+2Yas=4tEOY;Kcdgp*4@z3)70g+bJKWS=n{yRsX6j2
z?nlyclbAYXOd+H@t)QjLnrp`&7=r5hAgFnhJxS}6N1r?0t6f0ZiQ4{q{=}2GWt1Aq
zXkbMwu?*W$=YS(Bef_H-L&IdPwjq?tR65X=C!VTdQ;K%);%*Izk+<K}T?+nyRR*TI
z>uTLeT({(a{l7mZgSR?VPuGnskLF7B-y8t$+h+`W1BCARwwm#HidBgFe7|ipxg<*i
ziPlmtdXT51+I8iV*$FYcGZ5H^W5*KVH=>5(cDIXOUX=m@gc&-;JySC$cdRNZqGWaY
zm2bdhoUr{;INQkdeY%HF)y9rwIoT{M%%R5c0m!5cQA$Da2wE@_=Y6BrP<SEo<3$A_
z+yyf@`sSD|B+MPPQSk#4^a?>yoO3gf+xV&+0uQa4v2r|6BkH>n?t~#crPRS}nJwt!
z-{ghu_ptLiAQF;8Zhn?@P#05c=9o|wwX<kYlRgKbGSLhPf8$BX50Y(jD@;j7tY}Hx
zXUh`;CK;JZ3g=F;OL)wY42`p}<}1*nlRO}50kETg!fD|}bMB48X>uY(%nXgvFp5?)
z4*|a~4ejEkaI^jGz*T5o77Zh?=`U$_jH;YTB^4@_YeN(^D{q`q$6ZIM$c3mmo-9!N
z9(WWzpu|BEl1XzWg3douq}V`RvfC;67My@_R%h^{OP5K?q0gI2dfpNq{v0oA6l4BU
zZ_DR?cX#B2(8)N81DB2k(_rYDt=}I=A9}7$Sw~(jW;1+;fSxrUdr{rkE{7mdIXg8r
z1V@1z)w|a;+v(bS!CD)IFeVK7{=-i3$FATFT~aYV+sOJ>zS4+b!f@Zs9jI6bb+ipm
zs|e6@8BB=oqr#iErQx2=Axvt?+Fls-+wB#va#@60QdygPp+ZR}`wp%mi96=3&|znM
z9H80x90Uwnr(8;*Hf%H>IF8?nb!2Lu^mekR%Hli}@l{|E4iYdZc!>0$H8pbfWy_!C
zk-kGCl6I_N>H)R|_xY=_MSalXmrDKn1{4gjP%o2?c~^7Z(4vG*C~II=N1nBw9^uz7
zly1Rjd$EMilUDrk!(VTL<tDr+K9z<&{@y=flkfQP1tlq>c(KL8%W9jeSvd0>QRMh}
zb;4r%cb3A5kb7ie%OQH1#AG_c{z7L7%Eubz-cqvd6@6V*^$Cg=q*xsm_08FJj;TzI
z_J>ll^s|u6#CSjh*2#PvN0~tUYf=Kk(@VpZ2|ocq0bnj)slz*5x+uPopPgul#K}}@
zV=#|z&5){nat+gIJz?hTwJuss$=zzU!YZjxwz9<E3NGOXuw0z%5KUC}Kr)kJ$Jd(A
zOww?%K-p1SQ;UEO=<JYUc|fNnp5mKE<0i{Lg%q8`PlMLHo%!lOH1_o^uwjEV9@5$;
z#anRPotU$vWyP*f%Fm@w)sjb8Krx%@Y|I*dJ&TZ7USucX+w;Dduu!?d&c3j&crr(0
zRo{bE`a`{P6Cdr>hVB)EwNtv>xNEZAGl+hVGm-$cqWydyc|L=G)~bPL932=(#M9yN
zQps+tRhzT2)344=a(5HA14AdPrtA?RmWO{Vkhru!cYX2~!vZ#Osg17oSdCcJKoJX@
zT03%dB;vn3;3OwvlN2@PEnryAsYwV_u)+q=jxHmFjuNxD)2v(v!#wP_G(gE!Thmc9
zrBLHz6<F+^0;mYHQYw<!QA?kY=$SaV&r>^(s*abxBVML1x|NsIA;>3hR(R$4yNDZ0
zw2rFJXyBw!a7pO0T-Gv-`JD2<@Yxe-w>%8R6w%%{Fnw|F)EWLx^KGhHqgT%OG2Z(S
zO`Z3gO2Mss*0SIg`h$O?7-saNxRE3pqi-$t=J0zvx^y@;kqHKr4$wMJJBs3GwYbrU
zkztNTwZVzev59uFD~ms5*An|*5TTq6RtGl5XC$>;|9odiNB{I|nSY-4-K8V9oAXTo
z;%R>Vv&M27eKh{JRDfThYOMkTi8(gn-g-UVB$ZmAh+R*;ga6|hU&AdjQfJ3IQGR$T
zN?K!~SzGscFRd(XK9)iIqw?8HfrYy|o1>TuGb!@7$f}&*Ggq^mnQJOCAYT8_S=*W$
z$wBjVjZp<3ri;C=&d<aDm2;oxC3Ik7wwd1k=d-)h$b=DW0^uY%wRj5UwxF~6-tXw)
zpuhh5ahUkT{IqFK_p}9qItzO!*^HJC%`W503kJa&UbQCu*=Qv6Lhe@4)Tt42Rr<1H
zFF?yelf(kpq%I;hn8J~RNN+Jp|6Kx>W}2}g?m58U+2iJtW@kcq#%7pw2TNr6i5YP!
zqdJ}_glPF)hKnlglAZM=hR^<3r<uUW#;EaZGpF0Kk5+@zNPJoENLY<08OckN3q$>4
z>r#1ZVmIZ6)Z4V0WX@92Jt|=f(Q~<e_@VDL2pDw%;Mx8F66un*99n!?^SO<EBROc<
zTIrC=u=qPSRSpsIYR&!Yl89T)3X@tWdM}s{O!hZIT`qEJiW87{5d^l%^ox$)C0@Fn
zKlH7UoJ&l=O*?jF{pP*L@b`&etk21=AV2Io9bZEFMQ|$u`8Cg@y_mr*?xYRF%AlBY
z_dnTT<kI05?qMBu(yO|>vH(i6nIumx*^&|p0U_S4WbkdNe?vn)V?=;i#-6CW54+6$
zNC9(6z2(9Ca_<|NDj(x}WFNqRbD&s&Q3nl$Y2sLGq2LMyY0ROdWc4w#Wdwg!s@@Wz
z$KAx~#}tX1wfowVyIf_M76DdW(ICIW$@u-s_;Z(`P-P)xyt(>fl{6sqUn*tbN`!H8
zxuD0)n`23U^I)iz7rvX}T|BSMJ2vAodotYqIJrwXM#D-X&Un-Oybq#vt>0y!?J;`4
zby;}Zvtb_8zNYDGV*&Ci89~$cCeKlp7hTsUsaiF<c4=%4THB*5R>so$7iZm?Ej8i^
zn{jK`Mwx9D?W4RFU2}?Ar~UnY2`eroy}~3(Wfp?l@RhT{Yo+rs2imV1;9%`cH7<!G
zVr}Uc_Nk4vf?Lw7>~<$9t8tv<yv`PFl1jizTO;<H!=|JkG8dX4@_jp#L#1Xi`Q;KY
zx5e#mHS{fPLreQ(|CmliR+^<4@T&EiT-z%+UeUcd6GfN1%EqY6=U}Y8)#<k$4W1&G
zVD)q(3$i^X2KFpzCK)uU|7l+}L`I`mpv~)-g2~vssUex@LXV+fqicpBlsV@mf_d#J
zF-CPnV-%iTOP6~4-dj7p4AZ_TENWLNdFwuFRqHc;%(%36RRlcKVo@7~rb+uzc#pM6
zFm(37%h0EUH~4DJ2jNp|Znt>tpw|qM8~(;58s_s8;;(9Wj%ZktYW&Jmk@m1uBU&n|
zLVsgOX`_LEshIt1VKTGi)ZrExp>olRHqcEuBD8H`WuPM>spG+EcR=PBd`P==Yeb($
z(do(3LSePahXu^18nIzK4$xUn$LSBx&+m5Qc0<*KDL)~*$PJa2T~2T57h_&SW-_*G
ze0bGftCAv8k)d_<J#<tS?g(^(Wr#5<I(o&s)*ulbGeeCy`0ig!llk?N^_JpHz!$9)
zB++nt$gG<!$;iXGompC)6ZUYO_bq!%ynOj$WCpR03nzjfd5>=UoHctyzt0^s9<<bH
z&y)?a1_)FYl!w<fiGSM7`@1>fY3wxfe?)FMr{;->-a6U#w7$_!p;eIzQ<_uc(X2-0
z2~<f2-_uk`7-5h6R`1p*#n0}tp2scL?rH&8Q77cTCnx7;7dN)Bxi5WltN3Z;y!}be
z(g*{*BvE!9qCD`|GP}Mea|w94HBd`WRZ)YStk8OXil`e2BtZsCzPz7fy0q3>K)a$y
z^5A54xXKr<_Pls#8rDIn0=I|Wn5*+MG8^tVC#qb<QB4|KM`>GTZ%g+gaE%w2%WER~
znS(*oKEe;g@MG#E>{W?l426y{3N%snV+rk#F&ej|NpGs)=%zy;4GZ8}JF(hsqsyg5
z%#w<mGc=yolHQqRldLi(|93f~t$6LuHu_hu<7lIG8QINv0m`IyMZjFGp);S~VVk?i
z;<6F@@z;m8)HVUv+~Nd-M?R{9@Ad)}Q#}Qbc6v<6S(qU^QWer#h6+Jr<K<Gb{Rm^E
z4a4+H?=-BB#T>&1g`~{O53BLcqpdP!EUsZXw&66^LN&8LZkD}eY@^Jgz&#~Riv$7=
zTnx_Ig__|5huTIJ=PR*mljD_xZ*FLTf5j-JUw&wpDwPv$Fr=5~G|+h#&IX^9(RGH3
zBxy{tg=<+pUgJkg*o`|dlPrIlHMcfa0F903v?~W_I>|4H`DL=fe(988<_T>iS)N+2
zt~6E4vF66TrRs_#2^66)Co*bar4;tEy>!yVS=Xsb4)lCyqS|#O@`*e2y2EqFQ;HnL
z^j7koM`|}}F%bK!pm2J-Nx$enrm%l_TkaW(6&(;pKT!F={;y$RwBNb5h2$@9mLfwJ
zNA>4lK;$uIze}?RKsH<1aIvlhmr&+TZI1)Xi)?4kv>Er;m;M;Gu8LSuMd~YQkd`yo
zk`a)MTB+;LGOflH9iUz8^W@iEVCdO7P$m95NXUQ~B2yPKrfFv&cl<L+w{v;mSk67h
z!-=ka)E*vS`c1n2J(ZVp_DU0K;6q}wTS#0@$puA%Rw#w~R6v0^QoxJhW{)O`TE~o-
zORTdm&Vy^|j5EWH1E)95Tk8AIDJNU^{u}9+Cst*1!|JZ3R^K0{3e3pI1ald}X_uC|
z4BpKtV=cxVyqWI4pmH|zS=jwA4~<l=ovTz+-<g`Bl#kSi>^dV+x8g<p-g`+@M~pxJ
zFga_<iI9&u+DWiTn1W*%+OC0Rs6YF?2Kv7^y77|jW24JUlTP7GVklsmR>IY(gM^cP
zF}YEs3_|~8s>Ru1eU8?Z)b2HYb4AcVEWnG92?_gE-8Cq8QWg>>!&{G4Iy%CfNJ^}n
z+Q}7`tl_@KEN4nbuSLPPGY;KIP+U?0;aR1{F7&rj!F_?D(*&5A`Y`cZq5WV!%$(xb
z?U=arV!{^ceNQ>SHwGa_)ONrsom4Gf9OCA8DC)8quN|8XGo=eg`ru}AbSCEL^(a>g
zxfj;9ViSa!x%gm#Y(nBMh?Z2ioC>fTnNI(NeMxl8HdYXXXHVs}-8i_gryZEaEvI1w
zxbAtkk0%Ah(}(w)Tku&DXktB&99;1wE9{P_&EJYR>bF5Dm+W24={D=JPBe`k!e0(i
zK86_Q$Tzov=y3C+>D`K+%=25b_NcQXc=bR73H}bz$WS7)RK$h_j4K}Bj)-UC^63*b
zoPhArw~Cb#v!c^+e3%(Ge6BR~W_^Xv?~sTd+Le7POd(NTu$DduZYR8D@V&DXXq6Dm
z|MIa*2wiAMLLh0*B#ppB{AkX;|3*p}&!Y({D^qgAE}IbNYz@C%RfMHxHe-p@X3>~H
z_1Kbi<~CP~rN&sZE3^4M(KjONsJA9<Pe16Kx4bci-5ji4b}{k2^+}T{CM~0Xql3f4
zk4X^Po9G<BVz0TD>NS=UV^B2y+h($UQQRW!o;X$|;UYVxlAPzOBX**KC7pXs#B=}~
zjAWC-kkfH0j+HlwiKC>S7}SHrU&Wd@dVV&xaq9!UH2>&@l%6x_`m_(^=#5;?B+%+{
ze_vi*8WS=?r%FB^UJJ)Js&eW4AarFs!(a}4Tp%Qr{#!qqg?FsF&9&!#RF)XzoYjc9
zl?tCEOn;|a#@wkI9hp+A*_%x@<kw|?#f@rO7&^owmsVXT7@Fxvb5|)7_6}R+OBz0V
zx*EZ_-7=3|F6QTFlP(fXb^e$=k0hDlE!Vxpy~UCAa-k9s)<nbe_#4(BL6`)_{Seo0
zSa)p#@(=$Rw4FuqvV{$m2i$0e=L|F0&A6v0T{M`%@z<|gS-9);QmrNx$l(~<e7d+&
z3Imj-W(UXgeS|VyCOZ#LP69GN-#!E8?__F@4ReR+6FcBG<6g2`2eE0)L|ca(5lR~_
zX{0EiG-LviExfCbD#kTP^`A=ASn#1Ako8mAHR<@IWu(7(4ul=VY(KV&mtZ9Z-)b5U
zY1Wa}aXgP7V4o6;ozEK<&05J*Y8sk|a%t?CSou=O`M!<T{;qB3sbH?dw<{v#TH3T^
zwm+%v!{5j<Fg(PwKlM1|GVt}WKl0)I8Do-QZGRJ%>|f_``S<-awuwGLTD^21ejcS8
z^Bp2<=-0^vsmY2yZsC1sL-9~No>hc~q+r?|rngOfs-_xM5GDuANvd-*1>3X48={Yi
zLEJd&a#T~E?ig}xObi|FhJKs{&fM4o-ay+Ub+SLtaA_h^F{blI@8CvPc&wjBpUw7h
zLd31hX}7~Vv`z16M)=9J^<5!*2`p4sclVwBanDAoyTEb`|EiN8zkB2E1H~*J*WuDR
zFD!(o1z0uw)&bZ9j3bzQ2Fzjx3#de=P51Ps+>u~!vS-U%7g8bkc-%_<`8|XG*Ys%7
zxZaP9M-1+yO5>1h0cUVm>pcrqhbW41QJ(_7@%HXvMFuxIRT+VmD1%S$_qpj#zenWe
zq-%-Iw)R;0<Vs|X6Ey^wa##FJ{v{pmn~)xag{BS<6S=#uPT`o)J-IP;S=i@X7O$2*
zo(+|7pYL1jkFGx6MZ_N`N8O7tgex0)thjEiF!39fyYt?ne;>B4je`1&EhBuLWNtOX
z=$mtvo|ZAE=>iObzY)9!Hd*jelhMAaJ-JvY#xW#7=o3)TQyKY^(ndqEk>98Oei?&f
zL<1ZkhPGSrg4L7|ys|GovCCZbqJPcf)Oa>a)(?uvS5wgXC-FZ43V&*Y?NG!^`$Wrf
z$L{)!+${-?IipR{N9ZByWvQiuOpSN7iZFG@5UbIsCfNmbs!7efCVnWTxNt13i7wDH
zwn~PP*suKdI*J(+_mDze7yTwTg)yi`V7XsrUYV{jW*$;VtFz?+?95=KGX{kk)R2(P
z#QWX5Z0pwmD=*w`@2712xL{S$kpBERlEvZ}%CcMbab5iP``COk?HHS}&&XoDiCNCx
z&$ZxB0Z6@nA;Eyonh;L5A0hq1_LnRpy;f~!xnD)&Q|@2BC$A3ozQZuz(HG&_RlZgy
zxgXaNUE79>>**(DuSKh;65Otlg@QpQV@q{Rf89<Ey)0x@oZcbpCtnvB9NYlSZmt?J
zmut}8ZTP0g{0-itkyXK!GF%&GsnH(TTD2qLuBzM6I@TDHY?#86vMCl+g~tcg>}qg8
z*7Kc+KaRhY-+m-y2wE~{hXUR(Scg?ZIJK2=0TK*;^djPQ3M+2fFiH;nBH}8lq!UWf
zlG+88Wel>$=cA$E%AAR`2<g?rAZ!dQKckMIx-%2^%LwRp59rs-lXYhQhwj=R)d45{
zL62gud0kVhGp8hL%W0RI#9He-ODDCKDPh@f=Q6t<#GhBo)ItU4h`S1xB(^nG0eg+5
zf8RHH%ry=z-+(Lz)FO7-+X!)}?-on@&W0N3?#oVAK=<XEQM&z2dYbcSGKGf7Z}0G}
z@3`nQc?edMia_)Rv70P<il6FI@-EP{?6dp~rhmRm3c39(kepKP#Gnw=X7QJ&8-$qY
zi?V=bNQwHf_91N*0G<7>%yrz%?)A*8&4fJQ@P`<cO8X!6P_N6cFPmnIKW9IsOJ#j1
zk<FBS<#YVE*rn~Ntlc#e^Hu0LTdgbpN;orDC>QsPV)05uqOaNQV>jyex&0PQjc87d
z;u7uC_f{?+a>IfH2uVIGREPy)(`DYg<m2~9EDZ1{zS5J<+8zCJwEvFgL)4NN?&-a4
zYL17n>r2-EJa@B)$+jPan^i?06fj3I-FD1yOFC2dE1%pyGv?cR@Bo#PEyVV1X4R<1
z3(Qjy#e*qL!p5e0aWp(`-0iZMvo!fh4<i|h(@0Xme4^HBZl0O2!8QlXxUERGg<`F?
z_{2SbzMO=Qp`V~!S-ES?jia@U<!#l}(Pq@sjfNl4J*!lOz*QHu)Jpj}#<xB{hZM&q
z3^l;Kd~tPES9yn4iGawf=J)(zt2ATaHYEMZh2Nd&Ti$?_3Bqa*6(P)vUGEwm2NXp;
z<{#v3d``5&P#S;aLLKB>9l1a7!HphBEtf5Q5d0A=%StWV7~D>-eJm#^^)F(a*}s5O
zsUc)?;6>k?&}ae>O5Kz<vW}YdG2}Wa&b@niFl$6f$g~2{oLU#v!&tEOegx0bi%7x2
zKle~9gfy;0CSFF8Ey|6|yDmF7o;;>K+4ke7T%0s?Cff?i1^v!xsI}UdkQosBp@Oh1
z^{tJAyYq7*YAyViR}BQAy^OEj;!S6I8nQKI`Q$tljIkaOrXJ-+ppW+@w0>y<U#Gc)
zWJCL!`X-Jgv4KuG^g!L#dukf2$#(AFu5xKx0tB~#1&!^e14(Lvn}~>eZx^MkQKqC{
zly*Ul$mzY5ImBL6<)UgB8*5v~D1c;dX<l)ou3V9+bkJlMGJCmpzMmYQ1h%Gvt#B#S
z3#*01Xg8A{DtEk{5;jxyzbfZ5=Up~_cbpw%>zomWmI|=;+gg6q_VJ~06T{lbJ|^e~
zfU$LDl$DKIqC=p3*N}`>j_bo=arK|Gxb?%J^J&R#vX-CJCxe*3wtm!rs3YMN2yL=D
z?381$taJ)N(EqEwD*=acefug&qDUf<i5!tx-r0vSwy~S+DYA^2!DJc6*pC)bWGl3<
z4kcPhBw3OqMVrb}2T383lI+$0ouQ15bNZiio$tH8>-xOcW#)OG_kQl@d4JFTo5y`a
zQp}flnP8pTa$xWQE1`8I>p}Z8V+C)zQ4g<O8`|P^M^<O!+FRzvR-Z;{-wG!S!A5Sz
z*;H?OTKVycn!-Uhl`-1o54q2dEpEN%e5WnohIT{t`y_lydR^Oj|M$D2ONu%V6&1e+
zN^ZY7F=qFR<@QkJzT87{^^u$F&;DWp{y^H1&N_(ftHnwt#BHzAy7lIUTZGav$Cm9i
zJJCJ&tm6VTd~#*ioO`0<a!SddFeCTjyo{mpv%9;ZjjmtBZWwcgI)=9++b^5T<LwVB
zcXrEVIqFbtk_B&={PLK-Fd3)CRy(RKZqh4m-{i3=Lqn-g;%U~P+n3)m09N8=<8>BC
zu0~z^_$+U&pV8)1bp|;P%j?Zd9rG+M5Qpn*Yo6>nrF-YbMd!>qn4^?ab5Z64`<CF=
zs(OlV@#(8EOuLo&$C~i=w$FN#<P$J$9>GKfujS{LM<lwUM4}^~InX7GuMFiU6i9bA
z-j&&D^JKdOC$!_lt3&0(H?wTrT`JZ#6^f^gV;}BF(HU_Y7+kStdvBe{`jQPVLbHgW
z{!RT1=J9d){kH_guD`!itA4^_fk>CS^AQ7!x5iN(yHxh1r$%bt7xg$EvV#^LtC1gC
zx2FVx3fmN>`!X}rb^R)pHU3Z6T_HJLiBE;yNnPZuDx0$KZtZQFXVD3pJuB)?zg|<r
zObsC2w|tSe|LT0h*qmCDFVf$kbXQUKgU6~;EZI1b3!`tfs{zlAjEk!FkJ|kYyE<9P
z_UcfWDs!KVlN1ljv435*VX=0%PR?$M6saWsrW86auQs9C;dcY`XydIx(&{Qjhxcc6
z>4^DezquG&pW7n4S%1$ljB$?iqg9m|g>&BYmTNDK726j$@64{4>w0EZ9(s5ghZRRe
zFI^O0th|D?(Zy+3O@+OImDIRvlYsH1QRSyq^N;FXlh25DRH{qN4N4QWQQe>}rj1iq
zcS_#VdznPrtF>its5$)CB=8>wPp^nMZS$6R;d5a7Zmb=0hsqUmt+Jw$picYth@mCB
zYob$><sF|LT(Y~TzA7ydlZ5cVmAtP_lV2^*LN9;b?-O?46@5PRMVH?tZS+WWc@@0R
zWz(bLv9`_)tB8cxInFo<VV_<#CEuXYCBf=KsIW1}=&6v8RWB0NclBp!i)P1tw6tg@
zp*0^rRAVi6s!7;q6B=F}SgU_>qi73Ta(p~RUw|aj`uRGdG>CQxSG{+iVN1<P(Gga&
ztjN|vnfeaLozU@vV#U4nmbS<xyGLv)9^-c5<M)2taWwtao9Fs(v>)6I3<7>%#}a$(
zvrQw!kR>nmA|j+OWwrh;(G^J2{P8iDRcg1C1zIm;yHs7M2v!vPTA&TzQV6jfnin-U
zEGqK4!PyTGJ&L`6AMA<n#stfnO)HS}>b(=`|GU6&`y4>{v2^mi7-g-h9jWmL%F^OV
zz1o9w26dk;Hoe`K*LUgby)Vh1rN+Dl)y7C;bH<J;+blEIF{JATh1tetw_ToJaHCTs
zU#NLuuehv%<imIR3pq>jm$+Z=6&M#1DyOXsa$Vw_wEMmAX9hsrIn+M(K|1ZL@K#an
z1dFzS;g!Z;9Q7hfWJ!HG)XLRb*#e`uwAW`P1Lu6QPxpOM?tm{|e8K3mr+|;ZR`0o6
z<J0`}#X^?qrg&;T+wq&H2qj(S+0K`#W~i=rwj%G|?id?s+bWMMZLK=m!W#N*tk>dn
zV}kemF^BGiC)YDz87=ES8+CVPxny2ELo$zuvNcZN#26V=$KGw!8;~1a0IsQZTgiQ=
z&UMYJb;H!t))|{f1hpgHjnHDg^p)x*t*7T4t-f!S=H-_fdcuLI_Gweb?Ie?k`2$JD
z5y}HDdq>qc+9b1lhqTp0blD7&VNgen^-0~Z4!f)e6~l!YWphWhQ$|g@9+*aitg7FW
zs3h@pZr}J>iLlc0eLm%JGJZ-zMAPz(Dg!UeSN9VZD_M0>loXC_TKxOb$SVp}!Z=Ap
zoSea_gz~3jZ2@yH_C$r+_}$we6IUT+73L)POt4nbeve<Yu#ez7$<xW=X-1NWBd1!;
z=<c|D|NKQ&ZcPLnNi)>(dNlD7x>Pz;Rzj@8DwQ;E<jb6{gvaR-1DcuCe21{e#z>c3
zu|)S5-jQES*#&)9H@+Rh?J0fa^P#b<k*?Phe`~1nWqYir_cImP$s<e0(w_&f8I1kB
zFJj;Dm+GjT%jYhi%dB}$AW1dLCT;Dpx+al6R%wjBq_kA}_N@?lILAeCX_9$N?C>y|
zJ{0onK^Y~F<#Ov=hC?g6@`Vc}7G$O`Jfyu>#)3Q;+x}ScsozeS&yhZt4!<E2Wt%$3
zBx5Pk2209|$uXl@XKTxasiU`@M(#ZLtS#kmhl)sbl~C_p>8c{*d9H2E(p5K4&I^ys
zvU{1h#-*|N(+Hqn!`f>{x%Z^u>)W!vltD-3ZNV=_3!3zg1lwh{S*Cn2|6&i?KGzm~
zVm*`Xb3ABxf6_=izwQ5@S^GyJdG_l6skwiy#q}S|{hN~4O*#hPY5pHJ_fMF5Z9}Fv
zhr#B0G2k%B3>u5hn6&Z^0WbjOyTx}DmVo6q`2NbC<!xiPOuMfv$f;p5w#m=Z!x^Pp
z)r~cj5yot2Slk(ZU#h@Da?_iZ`ig6yVScRSJ<^MVhN+&4`hakh_EtpDVN+=#b7}o}
zz^(GsLc#GDZo{s_kV=`t(c-@5{dwv!mD)hr^H#0SFZYW&j|aDu_LU}+$+ysCWPw&k
zj@QGx`UlI8&C}3(<a&(czLQ+<uXsnk+d|C<9=!RbM$g;gm(7nJd#v)U3fUeLQQwSe
z3^Z)^QqC)xH<p&Wyl1?v_FZ4h^7A*Z0-_bq+=Ijqm&mkACH}IYY-D>xg1^j1_+X{p
zjl9EoXsb5;n8Ptb3tsl%yf7X1<t}f;3^5&#%M|mdwRs;lx-1QCUppH8ynP|GB_!--
z4PLwBaY|()jHz<CP4m9Bt1~8JKow(r=yo-^NdHVpI>l!wW%sgCyOzVpqx@Bx7aVEW
z)3^|O_kmDjBfx%WQ!Z(1vXXhM<u^&rcG$x)3!@NyTNHE$R3~n=d`5R$O$>2q(P)IJ
zgLB6@kzMPuE96_kk+!e4+}m3KMJSr&oL!+hX1(i*ed50TukJml@D5Pj1Aj>|lb309
zf^5)8lPXSi7u@2z#5T*+)TDrOCe>Y8uE+f7fj3Kqpr`9qnf(hCyKwW5F_XHhvyNn6
zG&(k)m}rueVl6>E7n5t3v|Zq_pF`IcgZi51bCVX-={p-eYqyhMpZU_vB7c6Jr1NeY
zyEePznq~db#?jS9%LoV0N3oAe+)9!WPCH}mR(U}4v1C@NQuMk<ht)g`6?N&xL%Mg6
z$(a;fX!fzirMvE{sq|ZhN=O$ue4e9#^zS#n8)EYMt!cM`3B#(ce>@px81_2Mg!MJf
z)WIL6?8LTFcGB2pB3~V<3V$R2@nC+p(ENK6CqmVTblVWm6C(B<c8B64s6CP&Z3nw+
z4~?W=vguEZA3*&sFsSTDegRsnYlK&YzqlNIw-MiZsr>C+&B|eX?n?ZbvHf#ltIe8n
za}{vE&UX<?6)rL^q+Wa%ZabVPJmN7jFH%A3isS1ckuO@*qpw>}?C!)28^7YL!sLj{
z-KO41da#dJUo4bCspyL;H`(!lC|7ed7@70#GVq|&UoJEHyb(#;d0uBm&Dk-A@fS|Z
zf+lsphXRhSI%SUq!X^8|CBDWyRH(gwC=-Hny>C(88Q|x)_~rXj>8o?iHx~;P$u}N6
zPW8HY-MMIKzoTn1eejw3$$NRyZJH)a!=r4^TjBcsX{EAk?c4=;QMm`suN(F(pd@6L
zTy69%Y}&Kue0_yp-04#~6{NjE?=utOJ*78Tw(j?AQCqNS3RKbBm^)Elu4!dlPisVM
zh&ErIXVrMwI`6sGt=bK192YIB%_A>QQNOHsu4#j(Dk7zcen4j1Ba<h;yA)oDd>7nM
zWOimG=e}0&fe_px2RnE{)NMbZa5Ma&!TbgF`!C8Xg$KDEzn1-ElbWX4@tXScFpryF
znGf>15ARUL66M`*ytzDf=1lx}?N`%}Us*@X<SJ9Hh<Zil6r9$X^ZEE~p;5TpFQ3P1
zqpIG1G{<@kG{qI+QpR@!Jp+dK!$0*jD0C1I$(5Vr2F^ZQbjm2ocgO9Ztw!d<%g?|x
z)Ht!Sr%lsP4v>*(*v=&)&4LjJL7{D{Ig0{;BGu&z=HzQPO&A7e9X^aacie1h#;QJz
ze$s%eS6ebLu=ZM!g^6c`!*4Ec&-?UaLmeY9zXzu;kK1yGyylfcyl?EMf#xHz0j7zz
zg6GJisi%_71vLvi5tk^jflg*Q2ac>Y^q0*LG<`y$n!X%7e@fg=e>6Asc~<o1hmL2Z
z)f;5buDY;qOPaQhmZxb;4=Ex;cgx<-U7E2cZ=Fk*0=(G%xC+_ywWArURts(wZ-=^u
zi>JvS@C{oWCO+sG_rc=+kxw=qA8b2@)m%dr1g~0%2iCcE+FujfEE*S3rfKPQelY$?
z+*eptz!~wcyN5N8sP9};Hd0N`8hJGmpy2D=Ri>vre!&6_<c>$K?rTXYJ#rj<vSOP`
znb)C9`?gBE3e+ttD4${0L?Nc8kI7k+03i8%<X{M>DIYmlVA4g-v`G^{K%iIv0-$jO
z2$*=9ha3YNYZHhOgXP2Eu$eT7O{k9>3mnUM6C*fXaUJGxC$Jx8P&0#d+=SoLO(y$?
z(<ustfpfjh@RHBqJ_m~frrhVCfGI%qn4ADh23w!y<Hz#ldcFbRlOA^fEZoG0>cOB;
z1H2#{cHsAk76is7(2c{*jVCaX@kR@`Eesmy<AzD+ctQZa*;hayJ6ljNJDdAWCQp9z
z-Op5ITsKCO3!NECIKv`fvd}03@F%4P@YtUh8->I0uNr#l0Fj#raRXiH?m*R{qRf>p
zP=jo=mpoNkeXna-*d^jGZfOxo<6)Iw@Af4QA0LUhd)=a}^mT)MaYW}k53}n<&9^`8
zZ@v9>|GV^GKMdU|EWA7FP}ui->5GV%25^lK2rd+wLpz;<TSB=@2HwX{;<(Aa3s0uy
z#cgW}_b%bO&7ot8OJ+ip>$B;fAPNu&e}*Um{c}W-gz1PjT@u?45#MFCDC|I<hs8?!
z-~2>mIXhb`qc)cGg|UlD5(!@$@NAD(_NS+24JW+L1*;WxuYa&!IZ^XNrKAP%Pd_3C
z@`sDxFLxEVx#D^I4DZj^<ktuK1UMofJWpBt9+;*8vVoKNddpP2J}Z#dL(G`;07vdx
z+}dfP@mqrZ1T;%0#_$C_No^71bJ1na@bv)u0}6`-9bHZKnvE3miDcl}GAf<Qp-#0q
zqIQTMmF5L{@^S;6Q~7Es_7z`OgfQt^iuM=^g5syo@MIc?u^BdD>uqUaUNiz-QJW+}
z4ABVj@dL*nDkQ|m+c!WXL`#v%^=YL6hPlyjMF>xX<D~_zWWWcIjTB3WK8wwOpkYWD
z0Hq<&C<q1#L*bA(BwihYL?8%o1ONx{PynNWz-u7TkjYDtBm#zrY`VLKHQ8`7L-0;Z
z(UZgR(}2T+gM(qgC>V?F0S6los0Il~BB7uJG$7QMLk)rY1}IG^`KIUFfW>6_Lb!UV
zZmd9#mZBmzqwm+`oB8;C&&W3b#(PT`jpYLm0ljnqFa-R&W-uWUL`6fN&EW18z&{ca
z0RT_{2}R&+0i*^3se!_;LjW2G1QGs&<W$a6I#_I57R#GtX+vW({WusH-P;?ofx!;o
zmKp=1h~(2UDf@#O3X9Hk5B+b7!Y4VYg9zs$!-o{F8n`d{L;TMW^y90lX$XQ3Km<|K
z5d<SOEZHo2AdSH$fsQv=Zd4A047yEYdV4e25CRMh!$Q{DGr@)*9H2^sPm}+*i%zF~
zuY12hwl}Yd(P?nTgwwVFu=K$6($i@g?pzOa91<0D?Z%{0IbdaR%SePzJ>sh*Fp|UM
zcr(6XJJI-f2<v)trpJDR-kZto0~+2`Uk@$C5GbADP7U<tD3T~l5Ul`~I|pLP3TCh^
zSxj*3fI=upn4cd9;>ewG!Q!|vy_uX)2w2|?r->@|W=_v%B6fQAyyE{@QX*J-8n>~t
z*gt6Cwh$YJ|Mb|Y@{`!CEz|%u>#y>ko}8Ee4|)A-4HWE(6w3FCp4LRab#fn{>GjM@
zqCsZS0=eG%Ovt3bKqg(o9YrHh87L$a<%UB;(P%miiU+7DC=O4+AP`6d!5x_B`4kF&
zTE6x$q1VJWfJ61AF}~@=(y4A3cQhJ`p(ANfv>O%!#UsJt4dw360PqML&E4INHx__;
z`O^MnZ<s(298kg09R7Vc|3i&UG{}GXbLxfvWySpJW;5YO<EP<SxPA%|zrZY9{Am0%
zJPX%PA>tR9g^M4JpN41Q`YA;G0)GXU$kc`q+*@iX27}wZ8FsgP{*ZM8Ii4)`+Q}uI
zDxA0d0av};UB_Co26qbtAQ3q556Rp8s2~t3lTu)^Ki}M_!ofA_Un}{xPgwhB`-IKk
zHVT_nRpGYWh4$LNze-k}+GmHb8SY{t2nZJZ_<ljK7z_#n;XdGA7#v92L3lxk?^GNf
zBm}q@UmOwv!uVqx2Kz%C7D2#(T*@~&4x0*6d~7ih(8aV3GmHTNSu?UD5uuAjU=0w4
zx`w(06c*6cN0Q09Sfn8yiNzTbu!bZe0fZl^k4Ip24Gj$tXo4PiYly+?V!=c>oB@i&
zr6xqcg(sUc@tObtzNWIWfrX)%$V>zSVTzWUB^YK2h99^Nlm>w2=Q{pKFn~i6kL&nG
zO3g%5{6WhkfyI-Z9LN5(eIU3^pLrJuKA0scW{HZKiIQ2OVv4A6cgLczGz1=srs4@u
zG@gNny3y%4C<CD3!0De(0H?}XqJn=d28RD?Irf9-Kfj&L<Zod&3)d`Me+z-XB|O`@
zX5so<2>dPK{~xXE|2$EF;_ZJX*pB~oqJr<-u0G3`1O7%8;0W*zAV2`_!3=BgWYNSI
zNH=irct>s_0Pl<e1mGPX0)LaAIB}rQX8Gx{LO=y*7z&GqAaMj3fJH&jNC1X}U@!z2
z0gG~iQy6q6l`F?hh9Q8zP$MCDG<bB$lFH^D^x@?Tw`K&e0@*Z10A%8fk~ND15=9UK
zV(MVSANdwwX1)b1%H#tqfJTG*zL6xn02YJfzR$NfJmi}eEC!9`V_yEisDMYCtXV7$
zWa1dIiLW~g!sWZH|4X6;jV0*f3_xB50ieh@G)hkohea4*umn880Hv#MNCFXIGlC!>
Rzw!g)g2iC5=<l4%e*pd{yZ8VA
literal 0
HcmV?d00001
diff --git a/inst/vignette/figures/f03vign.pdf b/inst/vignette/figures/f03vign.pdf
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..ddb42819a8f91d0a4b009198d96f287f82b55ff4
GIT binary patch
literal 67275
zcmb5V1yo#HvOkQwyVF2$X=rE~cMEO_65QPh5Zv8@1(y&cc<|uCU4vWj;O_Fly?5Ts
zn>+tC@9SRcoV}}S@3LRjK3xs8$`Vqn9Bf?Zv}^05ljtbi0Cs@Akrldt08rl2&eYJ!
z@`I@ffCDHG;08f>!9XPd4^R>S=HcSu1S&q$)t~8LFgH*J@D9Mk!42Tx<<=DvLN~QD
zdD#W<A71Dv?oOs=FOopq=qT)ey`Go;F#_2AgT}$m0s1?QhxczZ5QOt@G)~Ch`5;^z
z|IP>E;NbZi4FY2S8;uA2HyS6H>u++oK!4W{%+B#QUBD2|zuC(T;^6vsx!ho$zxjZh
z_wQ>V?418@2Z)QE1M+YCfw(}Bf42j~#R>j*{Wu{!e_PAR!w&iP{Wy6*JpV42ljj*6
z|0eg@iofg3{sNc(iMflDp{0$f6FSN>@YJ3$2jBz&RqgFv0M9Z3s=(KFX7&K^pF@dv
z0$?slb{;WFNp4X|DJ~v%4hdc^F-eFN4@iPXoSR)-R7e0M#>Fee#mO$lEh);*$tA@D
z21#*AadU8rfuuO3Kp-Jqpt6(c`xo?baX$kV#o5Ks$>mREvZJHW(n=~xp`-jee9=)j
zpE2~01d+0|aWQoQO4%5?m`a!$+nbmIUjsNm+|S9v!NCrcH?=c&u>f$e^8(cXoV-Fp
z&Mr=-hPLP^7RyEk23Y0>2IZzu0f<s)MSjR(T0}e;>_`CQ2yqTr@mH|Iok9qNF&I<`
zi12LEf(7BF@)?BgTyUs(_@8heK`e#_4aY&?0B`>d^J3UX<%1|RwAdN(;W`+jw+JCh
z34k>;Unm$fD7s8sS#*@=T>MM&Us?I$(!X+C!PLdj#L&eM@Eo#dH!B;Oo5~v+nc6r5
zUhMpn;0$=i`SV!a!@(3N{>*G+Z~o5|e~$k@HWRnEb1}7ZaenubxByka3!YzYf5Z*&
z6784S9{~lt<lW2c8G6sRmy83b>H@``>>b4H-QT@T!MtEL5D37-1=0m7n3`A`{-+O=
z4V|7P{-vO*sk6PSld-8Y;E!FO@#FFw82~T)pQ^tY_fNfFSpIT?q`Ql>+6(J5_N3J~
z0H8l?7ZL(WJsb2)Q&$H)NAX3&=OHJ6<1crpb3KRoh5F2?>|}4OX6o_|_*_nb>Za~4
z|5611So)VJF+*q5mtBF%3a=Ful$ga0Z7hwPELp|uZA^fYcF!2Hv@-{4SlWr&Ia~hE
zT*}hP*+tyK&<ViB{fAN#rq0GrmJTlVP5{uK+Q=LJ#lZmr0o7cMTwa2u?&NCvN7Vkf
z{2^Dv(!|BW`5lP+B@AHpe_sDFd$IHX&zl><4FGe#1e_hf^-_ud<C}~3CEi@TT+h4^
z0M~Q$U+!RbP5|d0xOkcUV<peCga7#Sxu*R|=LEk%h?DDi#b10}&ozq+!u6b1kbm{`
zza;1X^0cDpKRo?^ax&=Ooy_^7n=0^MoXq}zaPpr<zbplT|8&qlO#FX48~l85fw^AX
z#0lVj&K$1i0{dbt`*WrGhjY39NSBwrz<*@Z%R%&qLwFznZY~f2{2W{!-hayabM#jT
zUiJsQxbx-u4-H?&Akd4HXI-D~5Z*t>e{yni@jg461Hj4ovW^`9dC`lL^IskRV%}d6
z{|{C1uS)m~lYbULnQ)gxg~&yAw2-4me4!D%yjnb8Jwn;s`iXW5S*5}KnmD}go)*47
zwB3r$%A6@Oqt-XI($n^VmxW*|y5l)1xKNA2)l7wr{k>sjOzyMujz`dlS*-FmbXusn
zVyRLeqlmXY6>ew8znSOn7VdC#e-oYs%k@{_mSmPPn<-(L)p3f4C#NKo4q(7!4#|D5
z;u0sy(FDBihhpTItg&Yik3d`)iY>r^D@L12y4ZywPS+N6+s$;{CF)gV+MDwFmYXoZ
z2VNN;du`gn7oDj-T^vctU%apG87fX6UHsk5X{oGR($nl<Ep=V<oD=Q_?o|4mg&a_4
z)lA_yovf)a=~gu_!2R{a&cxK3@e=<6X>vUBmG{agy`FxYz#<VfwWgAcs{sCl$!Zri
zN%9A!`B|#X#~wOcxA}a2>j|<D1QP3s#9jm@{(K&8Wvv7$;g@R&7q{{pm8&sq61X^<
zAGUq6*O0#4WnF87<ybPs+a-P-(jCgEobPEFBA-k%kr~(KBvff583P!2x0W?cD6+T|
ze%^?GP?L5{1sfumD<_bR9{EbS=E#VRpa~!BIK8M*qo5(wy>3L29Ne3wyCK7X{#w8=
zp58T)aJQYFaQ_=eOFA-{e&^{>$7!!ulMQe~$8P~2`+oB%sUefCe(!3t`lcbHlf*+r
z@&-|5Wu1$@k+=&<57_sJYXEhyFP8ov&Z<9(?SCwu%KwwnFV*n*Xfw2Pc`0$v#qEzH
zM)#ko{@UdEkg#;|V3ql2);`zA=X1gSjh*Go!3_ZYaUT77P`vE&&x7KRQ|!ND`#C%R
z72ApG3f6d{SS_O!pVp(;P2JvH5W;nQN&<LdkzW9^2yo-~X`h}9-uQk=2qQ`kE}MB%
z@pYv{FA}+Lbb~dn_RQlJtaa4!O$3Pu@7uCJke6!irW~3K#sJ<484+{bOvGZ6C;>Xc
zSP~jxL}xs0SphP+Db%v;mUYm)B5zj5V}F`NIb@mvM;4WSRh_Y{NJ?bvu&gwBwTZ7&
zj{W2G{SwP{cZKjJrmR#jntuS+fkwhqS3a0fRXzl!b<P*lmdafN#3^X`wUV;+(7Jyw
z>JuMLi{H3L&wB5b5;5zH#N_WpD^!CP8R#N&Lf_x378YapH#G=hgH5iTo42VHL!HWN
zv%*{U`)NBQHzY_Crw0y0L!r86)1wauK{0@cccPc_QA-R(M=FckH;>yv)3CihrFVt+
z-$~LE@Weu~c()}An^d6RBgdh{$<0b0d!&yc#FYpmENaHD`+vi$DR6xXDN6t$@x6hn
zQ>u$eL+c%7hGo0s^p>1>N`zdqRfN0pmSbvsC#$n$+H&4uJ~pU6d`QXQ;~S%(Ct-Ke
zki*i9{33-`=`YIGC-Wm!zext5G(+dG`Fk3U*}fHK&0+{DQk~>G4xfhDCGS+I_rUKp
zaO8N%u18FfRBO<_?0Y7^d(y<GV8r(PX+3C(<0(I!(0ToZe(xdnn4sC-aYuLuS3k{8
zuT*KP3={M*na`RCIV_aF7N^9mp&BEd4<lzbC((9;Xt`S<5($8FORle-NtXCU>wC7R
zyq8T|Mk`<9T;42U8lj8CS0|}=pynk0jGM0f{u5!>ZrY<{?f~S9pH<|Twk7=hh_^&7
z{_vmD=A}~qchEwfAASGvR4Nm0qAnLZ#g5i`rLi$fVP&*Ez7f$CjEeL@9H}hX`!&B2
zcpv&vFgvqm(h!{1@8xqBxqjy_m(Rj>BLc2WhgD;U@qUHv)=J6)|FL0Dsgp(rrW;0u
zPLXMiI-f3FplKVUTA$lui`Xg}N;D#Eok1pXV|DzP*1&ldM+oz(^Ul@1zI<)A>?+Vr
zXE6%+$P$lY^-EUO+i4GZKGaYuCu8XYzZWUxlcIA0`(uXLNMi39m$d9Uuw7#Cns__l
ztR&O$p37Tb7=!X{*ZAm-VH{F@6j|y=RXVXZi>m#k#?=1F4JAn&7Y1BGevG2j94av(
zWgX}<HNVXCKL`7XI8bg1cYMU8AV0!x5+8IoWI2pNCc@=<1szON-_EJSNx)~k&Hu%!
zxdRx|9oDHF6_ns8^!}c-(667qdi})2eD0vN+3;hM<7UT^Jj~le`RU3Mn?nQEd797k
z>HI<Z5y<lyTp15B!&IItS|#2%Ze-v|yOmXnaxMGce4&V2vxH*7KRykhI&QS+lh^~d
zk@1614tocOJ#ZdSF-|=5ki~zj?@^LV66>#wXtoJ^BVV$VysyLV{7H)YI&1;f=1ajM
z>B@Q1?l<I*a&rk4`*=wqV&b3l!FoB(!5j+`B016Ntwf0?7M8LYR#6XzM8VUSi%kHv
zQo&lo=8rW$jZT6hz8uYU@hz2L3#`74#z)=v<gj?f@pHG_vY{LP_cGI+#8A%+nsF)I
z7j(JO4FzkOV3n}(ZnC@glThu&=L(aD?voI-0%Jv)ep|S29SvMz<I113Pc$vRqyo)i
zwr33#(R&VuhXokG*c)G08!u=yVD`5gnz*31#bqj3^>98c9rgw^mruxb_&Hf@M_?G&
z9O>y4Vsw&46r|U`c6ov$f|Ata|Bpz2`C9Sck<QKjzmT3N7>mb&7IJrk&uAV2t~%p*
z9VsCWi!(_T)V2HrzsajK2=4xa9)JI0JAPryjHA)raDt)X*X}Rs#pU~UxX#r5NG7NI
z<+!nMRCd}ja3sHW)oH8VWY2C`$uc!n)27sAi0O~e$)$KZD<qFJ!h^cM)`lo1?lRc<
z%aVPsgJpj0<XJ2Gdrba|tGyJ&T&Yzfg{@@3H;P9ooBoJFoqS@cO`a%BQ%5EXCyM8F
zjw)H`+F{D;Q(2s=?uGL(FQp7@9P2Ia*P@eYom<_ma7J3J>wI-xAEl+(J`naoA+Ywc
zvO4h8*b<vo5Up==x6E>P5T%a<Q7K-ZDarz3Ti5~c*^42A(zAOt^ry?x^_hiNXW7Ay
zS7-H`aGu*0DN4eWLPBhna$75?UxzWTf?Ld*y|2umg<J~;e;7X2%1B&)^P1IDs;KLa
zouq{ia8&X7jPTZsOHwZ_l?b7={g;Id25CcD(~KZ&?I{IP0Zlp1z@r8%+@wEpQZx*D
z>DU~AJxL*i{e3{|l&S`^wspyP;t@(JfWd8MfkRdY_<bJgaSSH^oM2Yn3cuF*P1)J{
z&M06CF?XgVuNZ@BK&*p;M+5!1>MP#m3>k`A@qvdlO|ARa=?|D)>S1cAv&o;{8j;rK
zr8-T;Pf)FFOnR_-;_cs)7a8lbJ1|&T2aYt2yt8ZeZUbs&03Qe!gKtVD7<~+wcGfrx
zq!yIqO+Abvsv<Yr@lZ#E0AQT=`TNGI?+f<VRo<7X_jt9-!craT%-zN$eI>&*sY)au
zav+ECd77{^kS@)hMJC<kGy0rKUNvr4XoEJ%aW{(Iy&r0APl*;Hqjf~7Zn$@2cCsMR
zK<V{K6qKg&F4Vyno(M{*TY%|5)$o_cnE#G!F37(k+e=-r8kYlY|AARY?-Q@#yGIre
zPA)X`Ay+i`psO62G_HH^x8J-Qj}g+knENMWmlNm-OREXb2215RW;gmxJ;8~23c*%E
zK-H*DDge!Z3OcvyN41Y?eNIuAQBZ}@RGI~O(lI<%B45J*nAXW>-O7V^9_SxSq#2pk
zPX}nIctUtkk$>?at!Av{xY}&k=nc_#=6*~eP!4O+70*etwfu2@X){ZU;_9Z)frb$b
z`g9}4*g>tS3CoY^gj?^@i?fnf&|oogYSA~~-Ntd8<*2iR4_tkyNv&TXD63zHbR^h(
z3ykd+rB74_xu@*E2UD1t+Y1jzm}DHh=hjbNIJ3O)xCzl0m_LPmB3cnEY*$ZNLD@U?
z{$xHY`6T$`?UCV=*X?(2_9Mu;S@am$jSY=O!v<@fF+wfJ&=?b#0Y=g&-cZ(<cYcSI
z7MMALgn4Jz_XfSngE@|0zPOV@cU8c;2G@<Qcj@4>*jDGJJjZLErdjl8?Y+Qd^zz|T
zBR?jPQeb{iE*gv~7I`B-WlrVUuS3N^5ef$`XQI#@m8meTDu!R>J?`o>J^V{*(Q$nB
zrD*CgBx8t73{tH$$OM54Ul=eQ*iEpHe#t_}K$pzbtIF&8BoeaYHXf{^p^EAO_B+4T
zi&>5UbQXK-%&Z(66o)2F5h$Z7tN2x#1sc-70$ILnRAHvc!%&%eNl7-jedGS#)JcLT
zN3)wGId%N)K^!Fl6shiKiU}3@Uh~zYAyWij5fk%x`YXi%U`ssW5OpB-isQhQ$s%N{
zw9DI4k=o+hR3=^AVcvLWC!D&nv1=cNWcydr>tBJ1$O^#00YUec<lEjQlBa~ZM{ENq
zEm3Zk{{-fL=@b3Gzaet5^ZYL`C$=cEaG(X>2?Wd4X&Upl*;Po03ohY{Rl<-Y8^Is>
zW)2<h>rqLokyCEVk@eEl8Y#p%cVrM>V%N53#ltDui!vG7YCtZof3jj*JL;k;^}T+g
zK}~jPdaFFFJ~iM_vmd}hlTIWA(T~$0j^~R~!T&C6*<iB6=1i=b_>29U9H~E<Mq6Lp
z0n7TX6~*u3a{qwWcV>i{9DAl$*vcF3)38Mh#C1z9c;7R7238a&mEIx!ZuSO#kvllO
zq{jFqc(3*2;TsY=%aOm|T{J2dR|$FEbIcPBdDE`2FJ&aKlf|z+-EMC_2(|v&8!R{c
zezz>h8vDzzs^&3MNG$4ooLSg~_Oy>K2~PLzD-GwG51eyW&Vs4RjCbneTdHO8LT|Lw
zln+{()IAS`eo{0k9gNPN?SHwOqHrzdxKp>p{dycU&|j#UsT}UbWbIPC7@@TJ71s(s
zTl+L9Z6V0&2{|QgB8X%!h@`)8z@+XIeRcQ7D8ZyjoeN0&;QhCl+@A_w<#|tLp%&iV
z_T-}^kI3v$F^s&U|0%jJ?SlVWszAK|E4nU;qKdE_Xp&cg-8z1K@Atceuy9ak9iHG*
zi^ZcqwTZf}tY5u0J)WD2EpJIZIk|DLe>)O;hW_zFk;_PE`MUZ1{^a5D_y)CA?`yQw
zgQ9}+)HvzfThGX<pKy|ya4<OPt^s~<lCJR3$PpxH&(oixA^|C1O|GCx@sc)$3<AIQ
zc()@+CPBmC;MKZe#pM*q0sx|K=#gZU)zx06fzSM3`JSg!md_uk=!!f~5s+jYiua-}
zqBAsFW6q#;eZ5Mbl&pQ0d<2&_eSFp?YM)wu-!z0Kw=mzO)<%4qzMkFRWf>wxy%ywd
zW(<JP9-C3RJ3m|nq)WL^(k+ukK<L+pf4fhj+lQ<UBQ-E`trj?hrc(z&On(foOZ!1X
z-DB|X{Re;l(E$4I{^sHOU)l6g&aRUk4gN|f7>Ff?SG?k{?V@7;;Ysq%b~p$nE*<JL
zN}sN(n!!=XRh`6(>5EtE_0ie(df!0TZk3`AAuh>9hwKT&`Vz8t40(3}X}V6Qxk>-r
znEr8U3D3+;t>G@c@jCq@W%`W33fcCNH-Xi<(BP9eZBji`zPBF3lq0ZiCK$LFzjffX
zj0~*B@){@AlgoN?w3ci2JrhUZ@(?N=SqA0wpB3K``@I_xMR*<xo^wJeWC3fkp&Lvw
zK+nUJ2Q-lcXH*bWeMZ3ZNbBXIh7N*CVKKfYMz!O;BSuYIjLfde=`TZk-en5_JGSxl
zWvegn&r`*h5mPLh)x+-q-QI1-M-+A_o>f|+|K#C+Z6!*BfD)!=hORa)KqX~>nW2rd
z>GMG0`R6Y+(Z8l@3IKLCcF>;<g#T$M1K)_N{&TIp!=KFm>@7U^xBm}$!@<qN%lX&O
z2^`N&Q!cK5iL1qOO**21diU++iW&qNS`3vIi<>1JKr3S}CKIZR6JdkJj@$z042`WE
z!D_@su#v}rv}_G6vD6hZ3ngje2QSG|6y^ud&wzF5H9ExKWRuLWc=TxB7rQMl=xnw%
z)XeEDMuPpb;ERd!VI_8dW(kRnB~<pPNJr4xkB=Cg-|Jp|IFY1&*a`A*Uh0Q!LVq=J
zi!+CvAXk7Ve671nN3Fr9ViL&6NhtqlJQtl17D0zo>u$cA|06uq)|X)1+B07Ns`$7_
zSMSLvj|jL}R!A_K+2+}+B)8g{Ty&I^s-eg*l^m<5P*a1uSdULQ0<_c{?UTGM#9k3B
zsdQKEVYbbp|F8+BKI{F+ygek@cycx%PTg#Bng20Uc=SMq>l!^zs-&MC@i*|JB=$5@
z392mls8zGvJC_JROSv3GesXNMLdH$iA|X(RTGB^cs$pq^?v$VV=C$YWg<sYNooyKs
zXPvfd*HTxeE+$}P$>nmJ@BW=a>^NslaNYR3bLfWxNfqcNiHfnAbMgn-Lhyu+HceUM
zbn@e<&pkx5TYX_xmK#jxq{zE+3*lM8$;~(SJ`5?TN_Cm;Ej}Vcy*gVtSlM5(oyj9g
z<(Bd#Z56ie%~1Q``|JI8)Ow%lhGa&c_kydw6K!?cj<Ocqx{_y>(5(5^7TBx>v@Wno
z6T>x8cA~m09T#OTq)C$pE{IF7-Nv21r@tK&wxnGWznWnB9(yP)Se}b$QHFwhh<I%O
z1r49-DNou0);8cVogy#vw~99AmDJQD-3J(-{m#SQU)3=bK}R&l_*FqG3D?`7QNHFE
z?pW3kH^G(<*Cb_q+0GgL4A##f{7w6T_@DuwwMq9DIot29!ua&5V#2y6P_Hoa9HAvV
z>x8>SyvYJ`aPx#RhkcG+?)F>o1Eseu&|8LbTxeb?djk44pfx{m$5l83_mRWMD}X1v
zL{pz?8gkBRL?JF8)9WadkSlG9;TeA^$CocT=BQ9Oxv?r+vn)F&R${^*F^yYx7FTLM
zPNDRJReNXLU_l^;&xh=QQD^N|=qHI1zz*JuUD+2rGjI2kPiF;49aDsg{Y~y?x8hG6
z>g<$2%avrqB+$~OLAkkgV)k)o-24qoK1N$^=Qp#4OP+I^gK(lyEa|CleV;!pQAlW)
zd&j@M4lTeo%x-^Rl?tU)o)l|KVLcHfN7kcM`PI84eH$J#_~cul&z^NJ)z;|^BP87E
zT5jJkN_l-npP8>_(ZR%ryT*r0;DjKa9XKvK=`sv>nk%Vp#Zjx~A~n_yA}E%$9M`rj
zi+QUN>92GVr`-|vVLM1-28)2vd)FGhCWHt`YOPRXrcKr}OrYI7ttvOB9UKHk4{5+&
z8`riDXJUC<U_&CmfWtu&+GShfI#J&9bWjtc4JrqYf45qyq0k0iyZAM6F1BD#zqVr9
zRK*_7SDRLOAm3QQ`YbCcyM@2r8{Oh1-|9BihuwMR6pBs`;xQj<-!C1CI<J|6W_-BQ
zov&9q(i8M_IZ9rv62Ieq9bP6_rp;}s2`sQX&{m1ZW?T62DqrOeP07rEAw_+aGeKZ(
zjyz~V4Jq~qRxC_5sb1>O_3K4=P+HT6A-t{(G6K$E;{rHiD~`j~sd{lww~*e0g``7A
z`{|wy4@cds!+y8BnEpMg(|P%iG4l?uUIBvnKle|$)GIMNm|ugo6<7xuWTbuYYx5=q
zEEDqhY6>HYv>Qr;ne|DPUI$MXWYYo9xrtkt+2Lmh>Mw}HiGy*y8$Fhz&KrV)ynaht
zf`HkXTh9H>i<1(mzu&q^-j$iw+s5SP1-u`}6~smD{opM{g_A@~Y-$R*+pRsTy~w|t
zXA_u$ixudfSx(6MWxXwG#@iVP8S{E;6xFNyK111kw2JcU9Uc=UKgSkNxZFuthn1N7
zYML^4BGzb19ALm{ZwrqpptGK9bkGih-~C2a)~U%WTMr;shag50jYA~|OVzOfp9MFr
zP7J^6wme1G`bF{(<3Q!^6oTD`<aQU8ACQNv7EGYXbe3P}+!B3$t2*HruUeD^{+y=<
zS|cP_r78%w>N~srC`j8HlBFI4g;{SAXi3uy3YXoo{<IZ{UZi^Sk#j<_ago>*{<n@u
zd<y;Ooq(%jYw6BzjOSNW*Dqcw82UCOB(#j5hxi@8RhWt{N}P}O+u7>`0BI?IrW~Cp
z4iJ`YgrC$t;MB{-xg{1K+Za~C#&;();m|DV36As;mce7X(LJ8!UrLIgrOEM0MiyMU
zde-uwNObC|qdC4|rR0g~s<FW~3Cp*fb40#DzCVLVMyQ#7!|}$Z^5|}-(WGk~)hCEH
zj)bXoHJ6vgWHhLiXMH1*^lo@_N>aColtwbhVq{+=E<OxG=)?CdUM~+ny}>(i@A3nk
z$Eo0sIAf#UiA`R)>D^Y;@y15<$-wm6784UNVd#}fN-Pc*nZu6dPGIW68q6@$lGX&d
zi&-c<CK_DRAhiH5&49!fMG{rx3Bs@3gM9zs`peQ4{0cKVDTtC;ZZG-z2n+M#J_{>T
ziOg$8=6;4x^Y1o(5%W|HasF6<C?>l$xT!3PIhNcee%_3dKNzDhR<a6~ewVBfpT|nd
z(Q_wYqjmKyepyy`auP-Lj9Hsz=uY4*6yt;jVe1byp2Z(jP9zx8K~a=fUMK{tps7TP
z2|>eZsR<zUYT<a$FyCD_+`Y?n>V69KLl-7Valg7cN5}%&mBhHf%$5=>a~~m)use_O
zq~wN6N%-`4mJfcKo%CIvK!U1wtw8aQwzlJ=(Z{-Dw_IZbHi^wJj^fhxKt~kv0Xat!
zH%W1m-^=?vG%d(YYcZSjIVI8X#?7sL?}_fpx<tcLXc_$6lI?#7iK$?aY~ow$hQrct
zd|p5RNhJEW%4}d2JBdWer%Jg<ze@9~6NMc(m-}_hI()TRj|;g_986i_?UA0#TDEvU
zGAWA#ksSe+9Q|flQD{a{35TGDOUzjWrFgHcb`764e$*LfxPikApu=lWS)fxO@-H7T
zwp1s(lm8KCL8tIhqPtiGC)V`U^jGrD$o(+16XtSjSG<b+q@97$?H_V8!%Q%T<m)BD
zIJCj)Uu6B}MaM)`2=14o@*;{BB)C1&EgQ^*qzF_jQWH=+TIa)IQ8})iZ?%t4&e2}Q
zU>QrWCiPnH@8Kv>M1O$bNZY-qxL}b%y7@h}Ohbn_&cTQww}UqTM7=uJT`m{D3v*bR
zpJ*y&$$LMH+|WvGg@~V}X@h$*&ug{xTS+lV>Ji{2=DSN`mRZeai~08au8N>VWWRg_
z5#~&r334}4nO13~(wGnb6Q4-Bi0mA5yww1S2)<nPakGam-%=KKl#1jrfU7j}ol4{K
z05PmWKtZ4lJDv_k@{czBFvyBTvvl7WrDGNss`6U{yw_%=Ps%fAMe&WF25f~-M~eL6
z*rT0B2W=2;Hqwe42rCJG-SX*hP6m_Mug;|=x8u5G=j<q#>bWcg8?}m5mE&0v#_%TL
z3~}S(#+*RAs&t`(s~L91stz46P=>P9t(p~#t$s8|%67PJ(ImcNKNMNyFRE3o&x7BA
zyJdb-?TmCO>3;|N<)iJ?o7h}c!5&7xx}X?1*mfj#WF6QiI>2-@&Pf6G@5u~A1yoCa
zJ=(_pqTv}Su38AGN^xfNaVFRS^EyZ>GetaV3ETSy?G%0s`kGcOl|w9=nNcAZnt!J?
zWKAS!g2x$m$-TqnGfz|0e6Vp^(Uq?H9@$}zPlRT1o61`vL9640SzRK|Py*7M#IhY+
zr_2LwIBJH4@=kzV%ncs{A}`mh%Xki|sJ@iK!NC+4=wn)1lX!Ur+WL3)#I^?;BKx4+
z`;u--F$J1O;*VEu=AEUQk_cee=)!`XZO31I=7K5RW--;%EG~*xzGG+ynC3z?#4a#9
z&|CgS?1;~uk1ESCv}(xkgf(wAQ$)0Pk#leuEZ?4U{^d-%n)v59f`yq#&o{;aQ)(l!
z#o}WW+s0_dZ7d6HaY`|d9IR#;`njK@<tzZ}Jjy5yWi3%!Vshsn!k+lR)3GqQlqwnc
zfxH|2sGYL8J>{UWtsf%1gh3pw2*TkfbluwYeb0g8=_#l`whNk!2jPWG#d8rK?J}$z
z4*b;5J-l@!`CO=`WMS`3e=)uMW$V@|O0v*0sxB_X62f<PQPz+ZT4g}DmIc>aoFY#@
zfmH*!_^C)mKCy%O`KUYo-3k<i=+Z^cEChaiF4`dTQ*Fups<rnnuMcAMp#^4?chAGb
zksdq8kUj0E{5Kum{F)eVWuJ%*zQ!ZE=_;cozkYfrQZ<fq$igmnD~Loug8s`6LtC!x
z!l0~`VDko|34Fi^faSA6^X7L)aBK@{8AmedbC~6N;|lH))2Ay&41P-G^4F73$c6t<
zJf-qoQSJN^+Os>A)dnlEcu`00U^e8q0^6Bn0rfH1$j;2O!xv%`XgGl}D?1Ex)^fs$
z{)>09n0X@1V_{Y?u#0Ty?2B)hGN~*5mYOGpZnTF_4tU||or4~pv!Qp?nJWVoPl}-p
z`p7$a3%t>HmAXb5znp|33P1RJ^fshRA#Q*CDd0<lYFU(lDb{1R2cHPN{{4bu7}O@F
z(?Jkb9N_4#6gug!PMb&yHn(a2gnoX+0Dp95)UP>9;}%zpnFsH8E;>RzCKkgS8VBjY
zG)BDrKr@7Tl1M>@`zUEwO{u^IER;8fT0Wc3Psg<=H^Q(mUXm*YkUua_@QIz3rWnG)
zJP^z!7o0TN>>Ylv*2c>xT}~$=VT?QAO}9%q@JKR(o-Yc^6SL{*xJ1~s^^$!kr9e_+
z@N_7uynwk(#urs7k7Sgs<DCEbQ>ZH@a_v3Ad#m<K5GteCDSA(EeM6a{b@Ds5uBOb8
z20lRS?}@DFI{NksA~f+Ow9kg+h7GMLs_eoN?_5PW^9djFcv%y?X++0K4<1T00%0$e
zpPQ~Y&7Ohslt1tWdWfm^2{}o80>nTjzFK8AAH7#8erg0Q;aAcK<@LbSxN#=xUlN|j
zs-7v1rJmZ%N?yvQD&bmF)-X;`7C83AR_Z7B^8^loto*N8m19i`f3<RABc2KGMwzVe
z#W+6DbdMTgI7JL!5LI+}5rRVBt+cnME4B<b?sz&EOBAKSZijm)Y|!|jPmUcbUX+<P
zP%aox>433J25!tn$F{J}<OL)n8rgWbvnA3Ma@9HBr^{javj2!trRT@+*!<xQzBQp;
z8Pp88)RPUgA)R?snGlhgU}VRQs4Tdy@6HW>yDJQT``|*f2xQO7<uwRukD><7n`1T%
z5-D}}Fbs$^fs?(zla@^i*7SYNvHk@Szh#yrRZxGQrM^j6XfN)wU?DCtUUAwX2o08%
zf!rF~&3{QEdNV)l013TQorUs-lS*>dS>2U}1i`c=xR2m>xY=<GRDD9ZcvFKA)srzr
zE<brzOe8;6QLt$+q2J9Jw4@^mpM#}i)+*XLZuZ%c9P@)EB741_5-Lm7)3iWd7_>yW
zqL(b|lurf)mO*KTS&M9D*#i-co>-=aVc99mMQ|JG3~X+v0ua6D0wE5gz9GxcXB=sU
zH40c1SVeGll<gimGa+Lzw^XFj<sOCqW@_;#rFSDDSiFtwE2Uq{CG*;Yyd}}odbE9&
zltTCY1Bf=Akqd4{tFM|+6S~;|&jJCZT_z5Z4Ze7%Q}4lX>Va>7)9%OZ1#EM#sY`HG
zdUFqcqQ!pq^*M1*e{JRGnLM^>RW>4M36Dq-ggzKS`0YgCL%`t7_kvU6{vBL`+Og~c
zpYNELeH^DdNr?rN0qFH1d_R^5XO=F!cOXZy?`WkLUW<!N`z8>aeE?0+?b1%Y&W?1^
zFf313OxZ#GZPbG0u`GLX%W{5(8huqYIc}jOSeD*_5?A1Yrir0w*os}6D>Qwz%5YJo
zTltHLfqdroTjbh$Aqihi`Ib^^#z|K+TUAM2QA~E68W@@>*Q_0515h8-XNeVr{^@#6
zn#;Vmmy_<8h@Ua7)De#o^=C<cU|=~HWJa7Ap!DS&x^E{3rgv1s-0`NF3l~blaqW_5
z+tH6xJA-P+h5XB49m*Vp;1Nf@1MzIVXDOmxTLm*#eFm{>?y$ER+>yOTl<BsnE)C{Z
z4m@U0#_+*8m$dsmU^QDHbwjJmGRzg@Qto}uNcw8DpMKx{M88XJtIkNZfv|WWdm9&_
z^UxeP`i$9~^1f>(F&Zor4L6POw%3^m$mJpkn5j-Uc|^F9%J{tc=8JUF3UF1UTj>X|
zOX$@)hPhyaC}R%vC(N`!TB<wL2NAU|g2CCY*28d@aHZeUkZWm2FZsu}AM^BWKlf_}
zo(O5W&GL*I$a~|91P{NOb}>4{*_$2%d+dB)un<v*Vo0;^S`$ncJ-gU$cWS8U=I0LH
zvKDG!wfg*o5xmfhX-Iu9Iy=->O;U?phqfM#X}s>0MtjOdDUk-LYMqz3ICsQDB(0Y9
zbE8V@XvU1PEixB%aqS`z%i;amk#U4{9{mY7)f0Z+u4_eRM#C6+nn2Ft`}q8gUK^@w
z?A?zxDht5OyMU10ETc@?X(cBig!*dA_$Oy5>-!<bo|R<YvmlYBdaBbl=y@b02=Nt1
zn6nf%u`D~qA?>cHfcR?GuTLakE-<Uy27wIyAv4l6;awXQyH73z=9m8k$^8s5zKb!S
z#hT>;9#6{m&U+T>NaIXyycJNtfmBN{mYv8lraL8z^I8yYo+K(2%7^0htLf49ur3{x
z8s;6<eus$oX4$$8{0J-}LPH-6|30ml3!Kzpys8nZ*PLJ9pbtBWVP7Fl#TTItM*0A!
z+1x%;G>y@26>8pvc^}bCv|;v44s!TzQXeuHC!EED5zl%E&KLSM>*c?E*pet^O*0-E
z68S`=QAp$6yg14Pxop?#{(xs)U*M##St{6_b@Zw>_D*oxs_hwPkGa^0MFM$*Nei|o
ztw!E!w-g&|E#2<17b<CF_15#k7;`iA^QS)i`}w^7juclpVdNS0NX}r1tWXb~c9MId
zQTh?Ks+3sQOS(mCmWc~&%i+BYjbpMi$85bdy}V{8+e6WLy-x|gIc)wn3|>C*&Rsr3
zp{XPEm9@L6DkH{~taqQ7s|YBRT)X*}d3G1Sw8<h&>vj%-k3G|LPCdHjB>cwC!mu1h
zgCq7tg)6z-AF+7s4M>o?oelL|2oOhb#71zx`@^tnl|o=MoRhI0y>>GI8&Np|`%yVh
zzD`1b5oobdn2pCaK3Jr=vm>KL<n#-ypS|B(vUHf&iHF=AR@N;dTQ#d~e~|3GyJjt{
zb9y>L*{(S$ogY-d^{gJrzGPV@#q&hGb=4dt3mArm?1LNa!)op5_9YvS%p)FNSD9Z@
z?Ygtk=4P?EvWn>O*%S_95uWi)2L(H|mRq)sz~8Z$V9sakk;QqI-x<V~cr4HQc~mEJ
zif@!$8pT&sC)pxwTi2oAdv*yi@B2|olFWW`zKB&p<aNL5&RRwIPLvjU1?ja37x4T%
z1f5P}ldV1rbu0d<;_LCf=kZ}_E}19mq3(tk?M%^{2jSY1Fgky|AB%sHFb$0D3G@6h
z+b*4r2Msp2E2_5Xe&L%fwNKWS%ZXQLbG`U`%OqFHB}b{|h?m2#&ws~ev}Le35WjbB
z7hy?t*RL5nX;X{H%7A0N2W5EIzkNu>>{}}=fH)=9lEv2~%)${gAZQToERr+t7B<1*
z?>#rxqSZ)AI-77HlQth19e3rmqy=0LW1mXZ!@R=szJpj5WV;-4q~zL=A4jE74<8X3
z(-|n7(de3>Neb%*w>rbvQeRrkcd&V;s}9vMbZT2!p(i}T8pPtK9vKhmAun|AdHJ~w
zMmC^d+^pRrt!GJoxy*EFX~Z?G9Nd3f*`X(*EwtAk=jmSAy_q_qVUtZv|C3mr_*RVg
zv^5+-f=Hdj5plV*Fizh%irlkk3XFe5xi2Z$(+`4V)gFAs=1CykBSXtd(z3uc<)`*V
z*<k%)vteJZX8ulV1fxzm6U;D*CD@}M?wJJ8&6m&KSq$C&WM=2|7`G|qvALX3`D9ZX
z-St@T&AfB8Gsv5<bGab?`>Zj+9l35%^<2VQJYhH|bG|k8RXs(@wu#BUlTU*6CY$Dy
zYo2REFP}540-h&}zu?>M`#8=XE5K-74ox4vr!|0cL%xbDNG8{P*~dVA)r);2Do%tH
z3wXH*li@5x^tk9>-B!KrW869NFi)z%=Npu9)BSLeO1aB;?xl3N2|sdinDc#?tfFv{
zvo$17B12?p@B`&$sg#FIVuvh&ZH&7cHTo^zu4xf5d>d^gCtL+1`s~Tt2U=s{&(|`R
z?X83}M`t%=^C!*QyycN2z9E5bZt-Lb2*&8IdW4#*dqChv`~eQ2l0j_`KX0b$=HnXs
z80`8DLj-p(%?RLiT~*31ss4}H-V{lvp--Y5A4O|KGCp@;*chDWBYY3%iS6gG_ZQ1p
zI7nPyP-n-o?y_A~ktOt8BHGrLxs=;Hu_tGRs_Jp;)9~X^x*MM>H|G<U)!h^DKdGRX
z0Wm-KgB3f6p}8RJ%l(e~mR|!;!x};2L()CCP~4b($q|k1yMB+XmkOQ+Xr$rai9<bw
zHw40~nj6Pcg1kTC$`}hrd;CV*Y+x%SE5V=dDCn8i9@3Dss9v$my#cMciMHK`OQo-~
z$3!C%8p=1$-@rNBQrs#gp1>^EQ=cbMPnkpCV(pT-LUe&W4;X9Sypnc}Zp@b+Gm{ow
zN|3>^HoM&1x1<r3`USsw&df(~qm(vptC$(UQn|4yMrbWKj%`vIp6pvvdHNTk!r8&C
ze90d^Qy?1Lm&dxwFz)v<oG~$+R#N26S!~le3C<F2;_VGZ9xo$Kr;h%55MJS{)+qxk
zO&ByT<5?@zjwD*kJJ!`BI}bXZS6%LAC}p1fPA~rKgFb&|RhgC+<}BpcqjBH`%w(I!
z6vsT%(m(b(QWMyd7uuer3|^^d(2Mf9A--T=?sRX?{AlX4rlXvRh_Fs3?){bL@?oc5
zUzt2gm{$t%>w20vdf6|{&}JDnW6*xNTnA<jECcipyIm37al0kk=7d}M^9S%0lx<-u
zq9N{DX1w<!^1%3vF`E~{(FEFg1xuQ7r(XL#_NSw513e0hA(y(&f+#S*Q4ED5@s`;v
z+Y!yMi*hW&ucb}58j8)|XBHvu+1*VBt^SRVZ)L~Za&u1?T?npmTwTDf_~wQ4+}ke4
z_ve^aMQ<h?rg}9Gl!n^Ya0>|?AMm1oR&(@>Z16!Uvk;A=-hP58U-dZmRY3Mj7$T-g
zb1Gtb?tX?N?5s>WJYdZhjJ%<QviJAxxQv!eRdmiA<a{^P_8!K1%;K2q5Vv=`YTml?
zW^zn;<nTxdvo!qTO;OVuE}_c8u-jdhu`?{X5$kT=avtLr8C}#iy~>9VCqm-Up6H|;
zK)d`V(NZ4q<Wbs@kZx}y3sau0o!xdI`mM&R(7<ak+)jUA&K=%%VSH`eUz^t@?!~@p
zF=_V+Ioro8$?Nu~7b2s-><3a{%feAvd-Z=hTkr7REAWPhS?6i<j#Wg!8I7VCuScKC
zThT1#$K46tYNxT>mQ<lzS5<f%$z-|Oq8(!Pw}3did8yc4zH6L2zP7Ffs%KxKY&3i)
zHZCHfkrZBjonm!2ekG1&-kS?|RXQIsuI(7pwl3q->&o!_t<1w$@$lh5<4~C-1Uor)
z_71nNw)y(-1Qg{At<Xb4JD1I<e#jWc!&zzPt5sh6nPVFx!TL$G()g``qK>FH$NOo>
zmCDB!SZ8N@CiXjC;XzI%L)fbKH56SLb!5h^pQPQWvne?!+ECM}P_47IM+!Adgv}_#
zvX??VV%vJ<R6a27x43f-tVkBsMCyyDN~xM#zbfBW#hiUJ5dyyAXC8WZ%mpBm1>Qkh
z2<^c6`0*3IdLyhBXW7g&!m)`_P(>Lqd=gjv!>8{EKC_);b425iGK%Jrb<6Fs(ZH<l
z0!>E=dcD-*iJ+<6myMzB{jFPQ<BGp06H!U)15(hi#B4eH760Y?((1aq`iA${+X1QN
zl8?HEhi>O@A6cdHp4UtZUmbnjvZL)R^mFt-QY^E4gnjR}__;~=jqWJ)?}k>&D2UpL
zyzRZ@wC=OWTGy0y|8$YFc8@UdLe;*{V^cfP9^@%>+Qv7@N#8E>^eDIqhGoNE*<{gL
zl<mi5`xBuKP~~u`+=XOE)~z&*=&2Ska}nbk%e?f2TAspib+~#(^CS+llIIr{w+HAr
zQX3g<cmkA1Ve+>n3-vL=L;O-5q#5fCNGysNpoIOcMa=QJFPc{d!;g&M%-ce5n5jif
zKCK`fV>*&w>uvdV_?~(n`38`q8$D6DPA36J>Z}@CK{mRN`o@?rH@=uQwGyRw_VCp|
zA)Uiwi?lfyMX2Rcny*~QW#AJe@6Wt3$z~DbtQ|R~A7jDStg}zpm$H?IM~!hDPhvg4
zoO`O~9!ss(XKj49f``ZnL0S5J?nHK;ea>~t{4`T_NLBO!m$3VAEu3ZJK75h2XlM6j
z>KZ=p+&O!0n2Q&GMztAtk~A-R$sUe&YaSR-;^mGkOE(avb-(YPv&ZfblC5NISSg@d
zYvNM2)0aJgIU&!ue*TY>%Me0qca^90sVnQwYcd9h5o5AkG)FpG<&~+QAI&-ak9NgI
z8ACd<ki01AMSL_TlOm5+H_rB7)eD$26mVa%PR-C+S-&r=D<_J;F_(OcGv5F$8F>a|
zCO7V_CQ8?J(l@IzREs)cV6D3=w(stmug0{9@*2c8hcAzvG}?39LEq&+BfzuV7v(e9
zZMZUwDtR!Nod4LJELru@z9@m1rtQhfA|_Y}3aj@vVmIPD$mjEX2PZtCE9xO@|Iu^?
z=c#~Sn{G+nku8g(qQ)KfH3Mz9{jUv(*_y|FvpMT!>Ap~+@o;V=_K{H&F1SXTroypr
zn@*t9W%jmOxh~<9U*My$RKR*pcH(^5l$*cNXm$2ILfjBK9^$)-somh?g<n@$-%i9@
zal128Owa=#c#uaYh@&L$EBaWmR`4T^(1-Ezmt;c7I5A6(V2+aS0z2AH+Ghpu4$_#F
zR~Sf~FnNwMjaEq|49zKeH1k{e6IUqS7v!#aN}qUBB@PXGtl*5!PJV@vJJE@@j9W@V
zYm%7H)vLxEt;9L|<&+p1MlB+8LGORf|3&4vgl6V3zbr3K*vd%=Hhed|XnKvM`<S1;
zJ59&Syiicuwo7|y5t`|DrOIZ;#8LjT`-+o_{^?Otl=*nduCo8^Rka<U-kRmsjcmE|
z&D64;KX|xSUB5XLTiB>scO!#aU*yh55_VXv?~Hnp&?D?<bRTZlYPhg-n#7Tk<k!TG
z<W1(HgKai%h8{PvHO+*c5zNd8vW6g&c-szelzC5tQuOJ9Ix})N>_MiQ@K&C`aDYf|
zDQd|i-Q$zA=jRIeX$>Qwp$QRb=4+TUxdE4l7`Kz0v(P=gZR;7Q??Z>NSKmnQ=at_@
zLF{HeG-I|Ijbuq{MA{qBEQ>V>D>YJ=x7(n<Ga~gEyCO(`l1L57&2q7_vlq?Ij&j^X
z8s=2wqXcBzoX6UDvfK);krs1}`QRTtAm3bZsSt6>mi=-Gj~s*8iR<I8fKrsJ!-B({
zvA2>ni03NY23&trO!aOq_B;xl)LVTJ5-dHCxC2TwN%Hfm?Cn^diEEep%0Q4Dbdg!H
zAGZUGn9}dYQhWTD@viHr8x(DHm&)`BK$y*47dD$#6^5)lR9G5a9rxI=`<DT*x6$s>
z+M$~_gh5YmgK9%|CkM^<TdkT^I^HSSU&`TWZajVO7m;p1KPrk=p!910%7#Du_Le8Q
zQV%Rjqt_JR@J`7wrsWI!dtPC7qENAeaI7Zii)Jh|SmRHVYxV@kOxaR*S&u<Wg(YHB
zhF^>L3P;(^yH?0tOhzO)-bA(=1^EuE+p5~Ykxo6p>*DL;X+?NMpq<ns8irjLU3>-Y
zu(-DA<6Zf^@xpwKd|l6^|LvL-Worm226%R(aPJ*t^zFI{?YJ?IMmUrqa;QY&A-V_6
z^#L=k-&NZcjZDRKMA<j8D(g(Jn!o_BjBofVIiHCjbWz^{kqEoT>B8;RRmgQqKurRk
zWJG6#KsQ{sYUQggUp}=9R%f%4Jb4anM_#oHE23&q{on$kuNFB)pNYCMJP>XvW+Z<i
z?-)qt3@4<1)r}B&c+2$m>!r6Q_Aam$U%zCBSgQSL<?E5@iFXMFigBP-MRY`^mxO-&
zgXzH>mpO~1Z2^;lpIZacUI2q+GtY|f_5$=pW)>OjQ<JYcwx!Lq(%YVTi$<-dYEUcr
zM(n`#WgIR`ua?ht<;v^@^B|B#xca{9l%`jp=M>h{XY`bOu%1O)E2fgn>?UMW+0^UR
zhV^@Llbf&KB)$7ml33HkT8nJr(RkZWc?Zo|vYir@W^1!Ijg!4uD672szNKu!CSPeS
z8+)XfVh-A|b+IM8X)c?2MB3lc^?C)G(hu&j@N4QBdnB3i4{|4$u~ax@0jrz4vVh;3
z+rI^GdL$3Cj8+K@o}vv-vM5!le^XcIK0-UG6407!M%_S8?$zS166pC>_3ef>4xMF>
zcj+@rY^A`^Db`?{)?;@+rHNMWx8zOeWH3t!@7|r(;rd32=Amh0s44BBFz*sda+6ka
z^<uXZ{UA9@z4P>D#yxlPJFNjtJ43A=WIHoP)5h>ksbo^k@`|WEl*SlS#zCCqZk9;R
za?{2TQ>sCj<Qo=^>LKIC2vfE}vgA3ICj&;q#&6%WAbl*!M#-rxoSFsI^2VtHpkPzb
z;H%_t7F^8;O%yE@&2j_cQBaI2%it!9vF0gr`lX+{mQ=M)4=BR))gV&xFBT7$MwU*^
zkZ)*)#6urDL1Cr<Ic_-uIXXE6IX*cOIi^9VWW3}@mIqBX)8B&=p<f_!6$5lF070z}
zl`iJLdnS^;pvsvi%W3kx=BOE<BmX69HX6f1t~p;_W8C=Z3#%Mya-`-*O&n&@EB_j^
z6LoF^^6zg<*O%kqE?uf?Ov24AJ0>z{W4;i}sU_2~L~9vok(`i|oRX7NntLaIVBuhK
z)!MC`G7C2=?#AiH>GzPTY?z%itJ0Jw2$VD**OZCas=U@3sZ_7ZFyrlZ`nai-EWBY`
zi+dVgv%Y`BKWNX=_U-=1Dd(UPi|{ux;~W1?&*US`R#V;qr=TOZ2GBI@A6R4I`*aB&
z>=>BMimT9UEsatL^im;C$M_R#NmaygO3cQbRN0mL<~N_JmwQjKpZhH4b$>vPxB7}_
zsfoo?^L_Qckw@sJt>P7d`2*b`sm^sKOU2p4d-a|IF}-!Tiqq&i=i+)tvv*p0h90S#
zw8?~8dIobpw1h{s?6*p@*GscaJwi4uTgTN{l34J)-cb%FuqZi9$5z`Ic|@7g42BFy
z5xLbq^|scx*E(k2WN~tS9NURr784Vbfq4}dg!O|6EwG9MNQ}l%WenScV6zr#;~%vi
z)TOXjGd%yg&T_3eb8DR2w4Uypg3LbMT$e)Kf{B}bx&3?lrr!l_&PTTMaVB>I)5w)8
zL-Fj6nLV$+&po~mz8-zb;4~i@x@kS~T5*#)K1ghZ-gy_)nmQrvPoeO821fAXgd3D#
z#)KQRVB&<c$O=H0;+1YpJR4>l+f{<|ReaXf$9cj0?WLeYYC<wv7jxMaWEaH7`@JAL
z`g8E9jIZK{WvLI#vOCF%KICKA6KCwX!Za?<vh@@@C5%f5ITiUX>3*#l6BjT`i4(Oj
z<g&lHVZ6gL?x=rz(EL7yKjb-X`ug+IEphmAX4Cp$6#5b6m}QlC4*wEw)v+CKm1nid
zuMO@V-T>#AyxrK(9<~+!nr>C4oyIQ|8WXw|+8xUQ?HH<Q$p>@Qu3gvfvmZaS8&oSs
z1NkwyJsZ|8!LEJ<r2*an&VgtQ@I@$R<TG<z<_Ai5{%`A~s@guhdf5Y;3f56$7P6h`
zZv)2k#5|F@kq_u<BF7ZP_>puKijtKTWQQl6#C`@PV}GT_qf&p(AYT-q%<yIHpe92(
zPMM7goeE5aPen^5iINBk+zc`a(iBq_;|+Sn2w!2vQICCX+s?Ae+75&gMr=mjy*F=H
zf~tUiL_RidkA-?7ojQ&6^Mw*XzouA4Tjg41Y=6j!xP#)n2E?EHCx$?7tiv2GaY^WF
zVwFEC)8r;eV4w%_h+PEjB9#Hurg0~*Cr-~_DNL$IR12SSDdZ;jRYRpoZD^I#PASwZ
zOJ>=S=PHVk2TkKd;8@X5Nfjk2qvo24StEh5wG}MzspxZIPLDCf-izG?*#wmaog!%=
zr6Q;HaYYBAEw;2f`(Z*I!H&TCAfh}%+CBYNV0>V&!K)fMKlNcA@sFRNpD>Soq3xj_
z;g5Zxgy9cb(cF=b#oJe)e4wta+avu5p;izx-~}*0K?^{WWFut2WWZ%WEe={|r_q42
z050UY@rekkRLz-V+|<d2V&Xvv$hNdK!DCRl!$G&m7udVBHQ{4YVj9@<A{K(V%*eW;
z3{pj*%6@U#Vc(;a8L23#fVntg-9ZsZ9!QPhb~-^Q$l*vFK^9_oRPt|Mtx>?}K@GwB
zAOv{hAGbkmLp|XhqpbQuJyIOI`L)4|3M2DKG#%*YJzN5f+8%ng0;_=X6j4iK0@zJH
zPSkYiMX46)Ii|QCA~TBeiudkfUb<)gv$Y9`Mnlj`&=D;K9s+f~P6BkKy{F#8{hCUr
z(Hj*BHEeSUWb!ezZCL_{=pUs&(kGZFoDcn|*0FQaQkd-6uzf9yxXqZ@#njpeU{vFd
z2GbjTP6#JTK%y^7)2Bb)LzaifZQ!ip6&0<(Mb>b{U1<UtR&o{NcEF|NTyggrd(y2}
z#kdRjh~I18r#9?_T$efS@+2~_vAy9suv^Bz+tww@%q55;IcBMi%bUBlw4yLP#{iGA
zu95@%N<^_}9&M`*5*Ca)A3J9MKicjwxR;<|6nvbM<ixiBv2EM7ZQFKoV%sOSZQFKE
zY-97h@7=xk!`<554_nnWRny&7(>>^_Y5aQjP~W=3Ps+NthhzErI_6R4X_)o3CekLW
zld`$5hu4+#p{IWbIZEbfu>JGgP$%)+5cjL8u4xwUv1MqTY{RhX>sWol*r~Dsv*wm<
zNOb{`OBf*uzQ^kh{<tS|W|Vc~X|;@}dBx^>{gh|ft!fe0L*1mU&#@vzwJ(4OvSG`+
z;x+BHRig+Ay78xLu}|AF?l><L+LC>0$4YmFUi>~URB`JsX9;I@0hjXUUpHkK%HvjO
zd^O&}4=&QJ{0p_=<VMM{6$_Tqhg7z56j$&TKwh2|Xr!k|SYWqG07nSl;vj{#h|J?1
zoJUU<FJL5VQ)&JIuA^5G2Zn4ro>sgZoI;e@RX@5GD|~v-CHV0PP&<MQLEZmHlY4vN
z^1f+G9Ibu5#F3LtcCSXdt>cxr<?1iRty+ov#ow57{E?Rw*f^uVb!L()%~zC)e9niz
zG%c($>s@McJ!hNqZO#Z#*t=_iz>U2&{Z(ym9%BGvVk6##yzD@4qWLD&P(2_9>>y+#
zFHA;-zuI4T_rtCk#+4LLnKLfr`Z4T5GQ>hmyO+tFZ$BwMqQA_xalR$OcYBWF%6s4=
z5Hj$K{iqd*uq5PJA`6<zPJS!yzQ-fdjPP-{S*pmUA6k?tjt2OJJ0c7}J86b09v&^B
zt46{voHNrrCJZRU|IK|Lv!d(WJK8+!onXINzo=+9YeQ#V3RrV$I1;F&nEf?NK@lNL
zP3!ztK29W8R6wLGrV`2%B1`)7Z4#@vIE#?y7PzFRa7NY`y^Y{I&sLmhFS3BMY#k9@
zIALF|XW^{p)Yz-BE8EQVi`R(^9)?>e#1@g)*VD6ZpM7X8D;qbVrmO2`qPkyk#NU0;
ziHtwj7^`;qg}!M#zHz3$V1+~@NjP26O|Nu}S5d8_P=<)7n>DJFa$u33+u)^jZ0xhv
zSI*hgwZGPFI<XMMPlvFHn8ssUC?Kv+bY!o-nf;0Ngd<FX7eh-&_jOe)>Ay4`g=R1R
z+c7)10{yBSfUFZB{g`rES>wAL7V+mUr}KhpJP7+n1OzGM6NOH+i#B(^n3B<r_vUy@
z%+J#d`-Z3G`@!7#i$?5W_c#EX3kK&B64Jfo>SOrhpbHm1JGb-uv%I?rzKf0Lqv|#^
z1r*+{^R4dlacYGJx`DgiJ}19Vu(Avcm!!dalayCxE0%dw^b?g#1gqsH$yQumHhk!=
zKmCDZx6X%*<CD|lH=ee;V=b(2^NHzF17X_r16c<>(?3BO)3Xfwq5^`XnO{zHi#H3V
zrz&i|*SoSJzGb6I@pN=_!$)6Nb+<Y5uWR~Bjm9(GZ|Z}R`0J0CKO>k`l^Li}d%ZYt
zU?jusU)ar+n%BuwE$nK81SKnUof7yEpUrs-#@liQ5ND?pYNMzLC%1M9@tb~Fsri(H
z`}GzwsNTPu(m56d?}o>)?}SOWAPiC<ct5oY1~<>nG;&MYIT7T8*xmCF?@+hlrU}0B
zEmmP%`;9MxE7^P4b<ocj`lUBw(|9+158PT<W2<ZGMls4GRaBjawE{1bm-U?|o@nNF
z&kpNgzhtsqI3vOfNTJiIR~yU6M_wNSV*4(Gtb$&o2A-{9urFk#+IFs*Mxi5NqPIEa
zEPUGNT8UVjtDnVd^eo0#C}Kj;wCY4`X+{@123YYq_@L2RAP&3Zz95wY*tG>oaucuy
zm==c<%gTPy<mRh7S;E>3_AnYAL~}>;{W_q}osl?#-o%4@$L_3^*t^qpGxY5D7?g0B
zmOU{gt8!e=PRerN#N3$dKhIKx+iyr;WVhtHw$lMdIxdpexP>5#V;n^ptz_ALd3*Qt
z@_P3&W08M)yvn}Zg0XtCW*KEyhJ`**{vMM9^>jUVZ#lbFRxR10s@aJgZ&VX+q3;Ag
zB^6!?jg&8n+%CQMn2=;v5vx{b@-?v^Vj&x;Swvw0J8x-LD>K1LPita*9I_I<TGf8r
zK1Nj&p0qlnVtcuiY!WU|tuEL2XS=r6>DoAjdb{l9qFSnAaf@+Dt7XvLOyaswf`8Ob
z37z5)Pya2(`SbM02<Gq(MW|-8ExPK#;};f9i^O=(q;@4Atc&XX5y6>`@q)W(OK%#F
zS;{vmz`bgYTe`ByGwPl_|43BVab7CBn@IbuGo-LD5q*NA3#G*93hgTnPf0RE1nt_%
zyH8YMPb^n!TqdM<y*?o^QMG_?UFFGKX*d0Cb3dO_L!0TTxn)&N3qp<m7!Me~Q!(NE
zSbkYxW3l3%kb*F#OfgVTmR279YhqX@JvD8WEznVaP=Y*mR?#t@JS~3v!B?$`e1-#&
zyV!Z-)b8(#s#5U2fYew}P+HDVBn<eS334bovp!^Z(Ns05)QXuL#4>KouBl5Y-IL_U
z)hjXfaN>R9-SB9ibwtBS;+{LhnV=sdd7E$wrYkC)70r&E8%&_bA4O7fRHgRTg1e!y
z)cPGyGc-3W8Kf+HzKA8)%F$@jQB0(XXsdOsAbx~oI<9E0hzUb&X}f>8Dl>y$2`XkN
zpAJ1W0jlpQ*0bE%v1IeSy2edsXJ@l3ri*kbh&O6|B`zhEqUMuv7W4}@4+*D&#ymj<
z{fI%*ZdhHvs@Yyq$x1y<55tm-!$f&82TFKQ@hl`<CZ+pfAy%MBxYGJx1}tWDl&F{&
zx0I15>L-#F<(L~vrb$JdEf#Nmeyicc%G(Cq;y74h!}yF?v*`HB%R?J!MSsd&WcWZj
zLrqncj=qAHM}w9^&^M`(mD8Te)RB%*@<jC&TzQttQ0JzmfbGJrpAUJoh_EeL<9eXt
z*9Ns-TKXQT8h@&#RC(w83Fh_^CMtU*28&RW8)GKsnSg0zKE^N>P(+se9{Efb=o{Gf
zO=E^{RFWlWaelI5B92%w;FRDK*K7(S{u-yXWv#LFd~0LnJoEA#+#^gk2nZ8_<m+`?
z%N}OGKakY5;=9&G>8&6<j|_@OXFucJLRZFaV7xCSPm*#bp8_CO_wlzb`GD+cW%1JM
z;*4h`G^nS9?Fn)PY!Zd{ny%`~#@;eUQ^Gc2O`okS2~b$_)T@MiFoR>MneJUX<M7B*
zjk*P_{(c;Czo=92S%wx<(qt%4EH3;e2i9fl3b7$8ysXZRN%hcMpM4xS73=E4Wakn1
zFXYT1J+~^2OUprZlx=OI(>%fo<w8NOh(I?ZO5kQ}5J!OWw+njWKqM(v!$O*xaXjDe
zv0(91A9Y*UHti$UHM}ZSFc}9mXKx(^r8>oN`kqEqOVR|Kh+&<BbHkXS=D)pJxgit6
z_IbKc%4?A^)*Hh$whuy)wzMGW+CBC;zTk$Ezb?lQ%^Cmlq28UDmQ9h}b(y-DTApFz
z92IG6R8)*@%Ay$oS`MqE#Cw%eSN#5sFa5d&GJSmqCPpH(dO>Y#+B~9d8E>k#l(UyI
z0q`2P?oH5OlNHFCnHIQL=QqtSFS5IFFVr)$+CMgJd|OiyIiX7#WV;rOIqPm09aRzX
z@eSVX<hU)P-qx`MFG`gpSz5VFY2REZ$d0izF0&-lSW#H@(94YyrCQ7Wote7BZnNw&
z=3UUoCvJ;FD$WU?7Z<G6rB2ogvXz?!ETE{iPq2#cC(!C9V3`db?KG0>FDn|lxyM+a
zUuLVEtA#NS%{4a{z(TI$L=}`Uo1jO$J!_qwGZx!qXN&4pZK$agRc*OCp_p92J0l3{
ziJ$jY9EIf2r4f!pI(a^Wfl2pO9%42m1Za3nRi}tx9w9*$KZ{}t_$5%$%>W+p%@U)C
zIy&BstnY*jfgOJHADV~$jsv#PZX}k4=Gs3Da~nik-D#%1va6E1uZvqn{O+ToH4>Yo
zZ-O+f#?8gjYToZfUb)J}(qZK*g?Cw@JC8WT9QQi=>qUh2VY)x5rm3dO*FbmMMc2Zr
z&37M?d`s&mA?6KhuQ9gHo;xzV(?^hYG|$~k&~JLTD&$8VXQSZeea!uIFsz<2qT3I~
zOBolUTu@VHAW~&Chc-$2<UMK@wZ7~M*?i-1;UOboG^#y)QkOY!R3Y`~?)s6QnW5s^
z<KwF|EW*GyhA}LD8;PXzP_pR$D6ZBPIb-CvxQe97CcO;nqPco-DN%zR2hGh&CWeM;
zWd=%Jm8ZcQJOJ%KyF68wRkKt$&!zbgxMk)o$(M_rB~yd(bnvc+GD?C^iqGJJwa=Pa
z$aHdY)@4#FPpe4~;xdt<f%*!UC_O0eoH=1<@Y;LymnNI*`CW<x&+?|sJR&Liyo=uJ
zpkHf|X7a$Cqdj}_3o1rbK`9V=!o9~vImyIX7vlCs*q}is-a`InthKH!>pLedv4{oU
z(oaL38PzGjfe=<AF-O=W*A!u2EKMrx0Upv<2!LB)8-Iib@wd{ZBQu+;k<+(dZNhr6
zhkFEC;oHM6X4+s`e2}s3l;48CA|ZkY_r2o=UR>G_F<OiS<iI0d`15r;1ua6EXs&}_
zbLGZ^`xE4471u&59yOk1TlUe3(ndonUfS5!A)V3Sw7@xYrE6C{*jvYgV~Z|1Q}5SB
zAYX*C&gi_}eyXHE1k|SKN=bxy0KEr&iZ&bjO2A)f*DLKah891UG)?QY84ILMswUb6
zkb75tYYvcmxV!=5ZL>d#?U?C*qV60Od!Tqn$rESfL9-%-AS#Ps8O4B5(Z&fra`!iI
z>Jw4~(}$M}+7M{@(T@Fx9<U}^TGnw!tD4gmYx)@L`B|R(y$ZRn5?1a48H#*hWT-5<
z<%>gXBsm4Gnm+CrFb0t_c$0#vCW1^<Tv6{&3!~@Jo>D?()ZezT6|Ku@>8d8xB4c^@
zCumGWijzgD-zC(I<Ri_?1Ba-NbIni{HH(<dZ;)TQwHp+rqfjqCDpoUzXACfkHQ0JU
zNsQBaf_R~j9P=-Q1sBvQRfu3nhNwz8Qiu99rI{AV!v!tsTGBLZU^a%G^O~h~`=k1u
zW&Z?=d}77(@0$4D-ATEIt)b5j;{0vIlS6z8X1cGQh1OyVk`?rEC~aiY#9>xQa0t<5
z{;uy=#=QxtlpLdaXfU*~NUq_eGyAGsBT&d>UL|9t`e&c7l`AwcHQXj)*;_C+#?U(D
z?OKP`Y-G1E(=U5L$jBF~(pINg+>ce~8S3e{UL6E~cjMPZ<zmHnt_A7^9LvI15ebG(
zx8JjLB5d=I9{67;9oYGvNx{V(0m$X^V_-k}$d|BCGGxg4SRe&ZTpw2yrS_jET=2k+
z-JN%%Zt<?E9{X%B#u-s56~|83ugYcez$H0Uau;Z*L{O_el5Oe`_4+AQ!-RIpkG5v+
zicrJA<YppbDpjq=BhHSczd4x`3^!c<5g~eecKe1TLi0&UwqlQYd~Dy%z_#%147+x$
z4-fXRb+%W{y4Aiu_-gP8Ixkxvm%p13M4*c}Lr5;{_@_RWe^sMCc^>Wu{t3u$429S1
ztBiSQ6yW-{9X){!k?i^dt{kN1sp9^AEktMfgl7UXBU@2MPC3wCTE>N-$qtEC_#&+!
zLOfz&Zm574q3D5$crvw%CtH5znwjTv8{=+0CZ)62g@4`m_KIuaQM-~la@5aL1V?Sc
zP&|Ob=es>wilgqH{cB@$TgpU!GU0b*z8>r)&*PBL4lZr^s@K`D&`4O+$&S(E)4a)a
zhPg&H;Vc&IUz&*($+CgxoZPbw_SbEn=T5pCqs&-qyU=W<eJ(FM-lhRFxF&dA_;#&0
z1Rn@v^)RP}rz&GfhJ%6mBX!LflTB&O930k3c{@3^*1e#=xdq#z^&z>)bL0AFjMu;M
z(wBeyBlf>^q@jqi3I+)89ZOLj3!x}vR~n6md&O<=Pwd{nkYEgSv~jxlAi#UN>V)g?
zJh<G+kzYpJn9=aI+1*;EJcu^RDob<dT@$FKJHqlvP(8K$e?IydF>yG{)oqr$wpWi<
zPNmK|S+LdKQ58jE!_gX!hiTqh^9zHHN}e*2#csJP;-lPFC8>Y<u`LV)dUeYDS}YoS
z7F6VwET`Qzj+Xrw%-JlZuLPBbh9i#OK*a#h+f;0+{#UF)pK=jNWpJO=*#qH3>dLQ#
z#VS+scS=L~`+w%2P+ZVb2F`blUyky?#wb!}^q-+hl~Be;srtW{Wd3pf`@MY^yiD?I
za_~D{dRYI}E$Z=bf<Qpx#5-yy9f33;v=i~7s{fxDBJ+cW?Y%)vQEJ#rL5<=|7uvP$
z{EjHpKLr8LXF0hh9M0^rEf0}ofS53Yq6eJTd~2J7$G4;!FWY8)=Z+QAM)o2CJ9oS;
z8$PY}C8h^^Hx3`;-RZVw@?6<Cix>3=da7u}obp;5^(tEPsEvqnS*yJ5?a_+p&tw7l
zqffE<Z`g3FhE{F)X*r0!9!frt$(4rDeL2Ye>|C4#ieSgDe|NoSyua7<wDAsSzE=GA
zCr=<(M+hI+<3a%+V}ClnK^otAah>D5eP?%`*9_dT2oFGe;1`@UjN?VnG>jcEUt0KJ
z(^AcD^?*~(p(-cndY=@3;{Pl0|Jz~c1X7rg`a`H5Zq7SmT+A>M^-BozQ|xQ@9M}$c
z8_n|jjUv=sNDX@P8PSa$$SJQDx}pyJ<iM~@Cz&HG(H%dhS1)AVpqJ+*Y4#1o7qKU}
zo-h69FPsJEa}=1A)E*&3p7e}AyA1oW5V#Q)wt$d1y18(RJoYIM3`<DD8J4rQmO$Ih
z;hQGv(~ag|Pwusx*FUBYvprA}0Y*-EAJ9+I3{km)lUX_kI8{R?^SL07PBb?k=!GJ_
z<}f55x4NC(eHJ8VJj?X=5PQ9LX=0jg8XeQT5BqlN&^zaLY60XI$dA8<MIUL(O6}3{
z$#1gl(uAasf<HOoU1)!Ddh_a_5yM}Kr|x;20v<5TNx<e|3ryrA3lL|8K}a~EF(A@8
z<%yG!2n@d1foO>3*J;e_fiHvOKwShjSZ4<@w1-wg{loH}dD-CvXGB|n1`*akY=~!#
zgiqPPxFOVj)=19|0CR&K+?b67tA1HRCcVDjt#5;8@pI+Tbh}R#&%pT=wB5)xYGFkA
zVL?U;*a*8re0^=nV<A`;_Vc(2SrL4K-I6k`LN}3Q;Ub%kJwNds{{j!1z?qA$ig+>i
zcAuQXkh_Q=gBTXw@A!-j&E~?@A>L??i{We!6%9jr4~6*5o=Y)r99UtmbuyMREV4H7
zKG{8DDV~UpR~VTcU46<AHtLPXSZ8JAWKF`ra*ig2fCzJiC2?in|41iY+LPkTF*0re
z4RsiFjf?Jk+%f_+5-N-h*a`y1AfVmUx8iQ|qGn)ZKKs_LEJGf)0T%9qd7-T@r|ol0
znC;)_#Xr*sRqfAq>ks#v)cv-h$pUjrM&|m1<pb{x4UWT~iI`wF1iR~1yW1xWKbght
z`PB0HcYTMzDRy^W_Isa`kk@y|Lv8;Pe+oCgoAi}exj3DAf9FSy`i!0i`QO16|50N9
z2Mr?d9~bk7&}O0kahvVMO)SjJo&O_V|7aHfokGL-ll0?PoBbHi|Bc=X{zqA+Vfk^H
zX_)ALIQJh$oPdLkLFd0jTu}oX3u_PZ|A7`${CC_B+s*ic#{OJY@xLNu4Qx#Qx4iLx
zSWTrL0^8ZhoKDux(Z;~~zw)d7cd^*$>FFeXY-tN40b4U`6M`RL*V)8I^*<%}pDO47
zbdTxO|3`J0S$|NO|I?di{Es;O|LmgtFBY8nwxxa^nY=y*I4ID6$ZTR|p#1;cUHyOM
zDKaoIu`&K%PzUo5d;Y(GH$PB^7Noa|$P;f%7rJ1S^RIrGxLHJDez4#_KWGPG5=kQp
zk|5nY*wC*?gkBXeL=?j6if~{(!-1y!sK|XvH0txKbwpH@^XfmH@82a^si|V|pO;^t
zdedwt)05e*X4C2Ee*}b^%G0RNcsUET;&!^d?|jU2fF18rsegv$cwboK=MqLOG}!&#
zvh@6LHNr+0!pc;m{x#IlXulSlLCtl#A)47J2wXK9-Sz<sqt+1nToaL>UD^DRR`#Rr
zw~0EY)>Q47-Uj_eM|{TT{nYuPZ8`r8QvjZbuuV_qw)W9VVnsEdO4w~@dzBTKx`I+k
zxbBrT>TB@TANbmU#}Fi34jHfWTf^1tfYp(FeC=2}0I5;&XJMO_bR<zjw^2rkP5M)*
zaXXaqG0}=9P|W1bD|rC<sVBMku)uYfDHlE_*AUaWL}`vYmu7J1Gto3I%2%Q&(?6_6
zHHNDE7-vWxIeZ1YDu@lyj#FUIaF7R(F3IbK?;A4rDyFbAb-9EvETp#5t;9Y^|4(v@
zrenBZto3fo80-UI^!#^P_b_ba&1(z(IYt|udmD2<#=n~j$NY${UQx9kFz!C-`;gaN
zePV&|qKyKaCJVwD!if}Njtbuv%EC;uj1A_jQ~7O-%;+;E2X2IdN{CeWbzn8IEOE!6
zFc$xzI$qfDKd^9-X3$1&3^gPDCQdaqWvNa%+jYNnDOpzb#vCzqfBp}!XPMaMDaX_)
zr!3neY(;Cf1g$K#z=h5QD}$F8ARg|k9>VVLVps%Q_I55Cp$-g~Z1TDO(MCsg{LA@u
zsan1x`#dijjd^Pg!^}mBESH;~`p;oqEN&LLp5}he@~=p%4zvmOv>3K_7*;hLRh?x|
zasIMqM0-?w@@WQbkgtk*BxyUY$mCLZxue1-fnytQ0jaGJE=o;xJhV;xW6g4C%XmoR
zCf;*!)8rN-iF(nK_lN9y09`Fgk4OcyD}JjX7b*P84t8XRROq+(^Fr<{I=tktq6Hq1
z-yhe5jcp-#CCo3Cd;5|@-gPQ3TK*$tfw+02(=oDBiFLY1bWc~>&q7T-#CdKJzmif0
z!JI<SGz;B9zGZHht$R%``7`AgkvEurq7>*Z=^Fh|<Fc^9Mjz@GSP-GhuM-?8XCJ
zm)#<`S5)`#H6`c1x4@%0!m>YKVfJ-C1v9C^Xk)n&KrSOKJDJ1QdN}Q&ajsA_Rveet
z`t(m9#h64y5E2AjYr9`hx7uS{y<3fKs>|hkzK*w+U*_@@mJX6qkL~5Drh;x<Q2JUP
zEyY(KM>l^*mjBi?pR>6d;?s#>Ja)+_)Jq<gHj`{`Dskbf<*+pWWPf-X6s4&kc?sgd
zx!h-m>uvFiPe2dg-RC{#;z9Z*X6%bvZ@1`>n6zbMj9&+AfB#Q^>U<^n8alnBH$_07
zRHUS$V?w;1$K@%BpQ3>C3av7p4t67}dR~y9Z`+)KKVifgVX+;@a&h~96EGDoshcJN
z4G$A32P-YD)ET+NG3pHocqb#>&Tj=%&1<S_$2{YKFO2btf7)glewtTBlm5w3!lbH_
z5@R$0Qk;;SZ;7C|seW_6RcL=X-;$MralXfEoTbgeMEfJ-A3P_22$FYxA4X(kXjk11
zj(i9PMpA}mK+U8hkB1@^_&PWgP@g}O$>V_p>_14OJ}Ky0gOfU+XQ9$N4JLwq6y37l
z7Nz9|C!D+-2&)wzo_<S3W`IZDd+T)MJsy3#e~dWk^;)JTrs|Ox+X_VRacDGctWNR^
zGKvdUS6fMXJllrnW(G-4B24|s!8|?A#Wz2cQ%20YiQr9(kEcjHH4YG!0LI|uRLRql
ztS3*UD<&b+K$Sl{lAH04thVQ)xc(RA^8kG&p;3Sn0FXFMa-|?mUw{U!axyG6@J4%M
zG&%r*(lGC)_A?boIVJUz&O0D;*U9oOln!YZ89W{>INp9C*DJxaGKts@>}SLHng9QJ
zO8~J&8dM;L{Qk}uqrPwM9u-Td9^;KryPp^uDVFkMEi$vxQptX5=ZV*~OUrr_P*T@m
zkPDh9UUS&ZDO)S##daqJ9@c^^k1o!EFSccOWR;l1d>R&oBW-ac;cMK!IOa3O$0$eW
zS|7v6XV5L^?atg8{U$9kiENK(PWjBt*pri)nNI4e5*u5^B7E$Og9ayui{sD-82pC2
z!kO5j91t>QN5R3mb;sa)N)~=qVv-a-_RS`Iy#ddk&v6}aTzR&bMb16epS1nzYxC8M
zwzHSG@@-+SDdHx~H};j3RnUtM^IL61@)I@vR@Yc&NM9MDMX#~sFBd&q9jw-&e<n$J
zk7@dM1U0-KeKA>TsDD(Ao2g-dWvVD^sOq7`J>fkrmPF80G7DY&>qVIVkQpL?9Fy;f
zLVb4VuAByyF{@{XpghVjTj2FwrZ~zV8!EfX8A_4NcUEF5a&|DyR>^xo_*pwuML8jn
zl$X{ruzJvsSpNl5zV`v1oK0FTo4>J#fI)sEm;3=V#5Zr=D|kC9z<`-ymfcX6a_rV9
zr{90PNL>h4M9TQz#&x?9)4>;(7b6v%kPXtGY|OGHOs5`XKAhXoUx)lWB=T9gRO12%
zj3SzLAGIIUzqO_j6hgr*3BxowAqO$27sB_#g<nsxo%5viqWSaKss1c!bTT`Mrr=C7
z0Arn9N7<@*a9$2ZwVNa}-#q`>0q};LzGwxPh14sEmdp<lg{PX7i{32@jNN~_C*>Xp
zS#2cc2IN;C&!4InQ}ia8w^02Fk6nV7P@aga(P871KW8)!{|;Q~miA7N?PQ~pLe&km
zokP62O5?XlD$`L{Is-Gu<;DVx2Y$EYl@Xo65M@4mG7tCsW{M(joE(c93246^aAbI`
zcxcMMecl^XFpMp$x@RwI)K$3WG<T!&z3_b&_-=AA;M3`N8QLd+01WYl1juNR#z*!J
zPV00Ci&&mZx=2VUZ#j|4U!tn8k%Y{r2C9G}?kQ3AFnX?}FO<41aS}4`@jcRX=(>!$
zBX8SKywaiNs6V>^b7hWS7?1Oi$?mQ}ty^}WQ0e2AG7^YP^kKdBD({L`(KS3NrYnU3
zMEk3Sef<;pc^66;7hJ=HT>U$tTXDoeMM0_Z?7$ma*a){p?=rBr!Y<&%;nfpKZ5!{H
zbLD6*DU^>r@IBl(Av=42jeqMztKN9ay}Dv|!r0&SGWDS{1`B_NnlnRWg!GThQW)5;
z&*nsh=m^?$R-K-SuU?jO-C4Sz<&^qj(G-28|Iqf+B+pF18zqY8^iv$@7a)}2rt4DW
zVg4%7twZEd3A{11{9*(O=TcS7MOq>aGyROGsdErskfa!7WsB^4rh=?tIM9ud!@x%V
z;In!l%ne56i#YtoaQ1BKHAHs3AHw@+_i4wa^38?HXSW338$zoP)QO!4t3n|?QG8Sc
zxq|1UoiMc%eR6?RMdBP8p%kq>Ks}-T8jJJejzN-!+_pv8y*!$>;AmF9XqA+a_rLR~
zhz+`AyQ-E>8^kB`jAO_t;^vEfHFAc@_AkivT}f=*d>UItg8=MTx#H@1zJY#&4^Gvw
z0Wk&SBw1zWkD-G)0S|dKD|s&}M7H2V^l06GA!6VHS3Ofl^tS&p_lbFFx`{2S?Nn3a
zYmlR4ho#uw2-vR*TBJg%uQoHv+*;VOB5Uixyq=pH_PWv@efzWK53l~q7-S*82W-_8
zH!t&2wQ>1nnCEZ2-6x_aEF$EoadQ&m61x!16y^GHI$&D`w6LgiW{c1S|3OS9npbK?
zukXJ7f@_*=#5<<>r}hHVP5b0Jzz3|;Rr|FKa=;!oOuqadJ}72*V8Py@>uV$A)4JXc
z{8}R(N(|k6o$Ps8nE_f&+Mv;3%NE@nILmOB2N$Kf@wF+2vg;By(}H5-^EZ-fVQ89d
z%u|}7b(*4M$EnO4IHX7NPJFNox_QmVst<E3%p0Sn+D5VO!2Jy|6lpWV#8(UvDCuw(
z(Rzd(N(HwZuOe9Yrj|B7aypaA>Icj6R`-&U%p-=pTEDH)DqK}i6pkF6KGrys;wsDi
z7gesnO2kfGftY@y?_Ku#^xBrw0XbGSk6xpnLVzw5`=Zy*TgKhc>zk6tomX-GT7jgE
zZ)e;kymu|?fmtPW(F4s*uVt7-4;Vpw2H#a$#hHIA!vWQ{?F8mJ<k^J<Uo<HKI&(!n
zbi9Y4NX7Ur$ef&5({)&Z!X6y&ee*<qRACkV(c4NWya?TE)H9R25P~yzW8+<W(JUv<
zdDhv5s`hM=(;?2AAL*@;o8XMPeov#$FCbhGdY%!sPe~L~$ZFoO=^_tln&-q@Me{YL
z7}zeItCoLap#F7%apBsFO+KG1b%v_pTBczpZA_t7IuB!sS3L4WV0Gg%r(mezN_UP@
z*CUbCw}K+s<+=>GZH2PZa~pg|9wyhv>&Kx7nE`_^;MEkxYk;(2^=c*aKjQb{sNoKM
zLlv|gQfIR$GTGbM<1k=#sl}c}Dw+}emaET5G>I$RV6KMDVDGZXT8JCY--gW!GjC{!
zD1k~lH`Ws^%of&rX2o5{64Z+JN<D@i{lby(GVz;UQ4i#`lv7Q+OgpFO=h7`y7F$)r
zTE~+{Zq^;$e#@esvDo!7Ve_oA<eL7Hd2FavT6+@YL47jPU9Eguw}@cx0fMoJKM^~e
zgZ|L^du;)c4s<wY%$0iAsjv&9ztblEO>E8f+nR&5yYRgzdr`cQ=dB~{EM!ecC(A@V
zD9R$R3vOn4F1r`a<{%pR3Fb_b(!ZPK&|Ra%CLzo}-LvvnN7Q9FE=B{FzLT2}Pr;IV
zot;PqX1H6%vHM4@n<7Gvq)hhGEG}esp2jl8DjiR+PUW>yc~dt0F3cd7tvJuJ9~aam
z(eSdu<T)fuY$VI*RB-l+awYPf75g1NP$t3Bbnohfzf5ufi%eAj%uu^2Prxn2YD{^=
zNKxqY?+i=$KF(!<8kJPg?8CPPfU#4!O9_WaRFmw?)Kq0lc?@nao)g>fKI=PlTPT3@
zdY+Xm{Kh`gby)D3s20!2i+KEr@x|cG$gH&|q6zbJYceCM-9o?eOQN@PBb@cR<OIBO
z<e#a2<RBkIv(qVwysb>(kvdF?A&wi85th4Vw4E937St9*zF7pXCXBObxl8sGnK`1p
zfAJO$tDciLyr!ni7(L%`#!a|_p$gVJLUoM2+C5e!p}z{07t#$}9?hQr6<bAu?k^uF
zr&Ck?wzgj`n!;<xGR%1D)&PB78Gm1PaQ}ZNQDL1|;3*&z{-mz{rfX^gcx6TDy-ULa
zns$!`k8sN*kXDJ$dO*vtc7CKhUjGn*Uvh`0KbdDK3ggS@2rv2H6|f+D$Znwi^t+CO
z`9WjE+Cv=TG>Vwr<SfgnSGeuJ`@nr2$PR8manZzvis%Hi6(HTepI{uM&K5tJW?144
zcX|ij`8!9)u`a*=>9QzR0nV&qI}X~$*myK2ul;E|r6Ilff$3pJA&13D@@-fZoz6uk
zgI4r;sS90I5yx*y*7Y%523EzJa`G9-<*;fI$${?tyL+8Aj<YfNxEOR1Pb%+RT2Jp>
z_|#r+e15Zh!D18fmmlk58T$&~9)n^K<1YwTPVh|1<$q(ij<Y4frQ71=Lk%+}ff|3Y
zSxn(Bj=Y4>vW>|5IbjSR*;^XJiDo#T**@j79)lgSAbIFncRI2yS&ENMD+5`TFDOq;
z`2XHj!6IeI4rP}Ec?R|?ewuzv0?7$%(phy9DiocQKLvQ`iTJ4)>eLh=^25zyrWJUg
z`P=>SDb9%l9ge!a@RrfB4)gTb&c{4`*S;sY=#h*>dJ3%t9nAPg(W}j!0$7(ZXYX#i
z?9J}2KzckywBsqHn>bZy+**L_)*^JFm(+*<kg4wYCXFUW^kSY08160R++_T%h`w&e
z0jGD{>V@;7IdLEu#?r)4dmiY8mpKEvo$3C%SyqRRct^KY8sMnk1L8f70RImVQbo5_
z#dIZxg%1)If_E;(RX42s&V1#tn`sHPRoy@@E%^k$4QCLP5)`s{9z#L0y#2e;C-<xi
z@mXWnKP9a3N?wM4<jJ7U3)&rF6?_wN6S`})qYT^{ZbL5|bUk=X@O{uD?-?v>n9zE~
zvF^`!tg|1&UBU1cjPhw?$QH?NK#UXQv2wt<yzi=Xe<?C+*p1eJ&z*e_wy&_%JyrYC
zo&Ke4vDVa9FGO%6VvcwV7Ccbc7z1Abo`Dx!4$W|98-~?1WP+K|Wwt)rg8n2d>qQyV
z@yTMpY@hZm`<*WQMJe-YnhJ<({(0ztrvT8o6z(V|p#?O)V6VLn8_sB9iho;}s>LQL
zQ0`#~eRe-AITOKW@y0)ZcbLj78wi%99~D@q(u+pFU&1*<t<I~iFs*m<?yt`KXhHit
z!KEmWx2~8!-<G4py|^IDu13L<HD^`hG~P6XL2_q~%t+Trmjq|M*U`Z?^28hTq2Zg8
zJVdnX`>^0krh;@kUgEuP0dTiYPb+ylCdpCte;>9b7I(NLM(t<$XAoCVfm)c6qT|Xt
z2GtgY{J&(zKuXZ90{LmM2=y=cvv3txgaprNV2%C`V^{)i(JhH?xrfR9pXA^n*S`$T
zHKG&I%s~SH#^R0P{sN}#gIvN~dE50gH<wGP-BKV;3A}x9FGjROoK(fWV8;t<vfSPc
zEA+?D?bjTSwW>+_n<agA7LZ!FyyY!u$HTJjp&m;Mu>X4aHMi+P`7GfV-~0QYQM|e%
zJn_-H|BRwr`6(<8D5EW<jdS;}U<PvM{%i=*G2{*ZT~?FTFw^9R(_DkUZg<VUa>E_>
zQCQGi);YvfbCbWL^2OwRbG_ub?;Ghk9g<7qU56;XBKM}5esy0qqTN}V>7GhnvpF)7
z704JD{Jj;oQaJi3QVBo$EyT6<Ii4Y1x6DupoN1B417njJ=o*9{_q=VDl7QYV%j=zm
zmNsH!;xo7w+}~V#ACA?_WjC)5{*ZKn@b(cfgU!tOE5h>;0_{cvq*f}I>;c5lUvSTk
zahg*qybM1VIXD}UI)<GX<1RM~KHSOwrU7VgAaoiir*t^q$8Ro$uH9`wE)w-R(WegR
z`t!F>d^C#<-9`RLex}6b<5#W?&);Xqj;Jn;XD+#f_5bJ?#{`ykJfR%MU>{Y$Nu-ZA
z3-qNEK76ZEb&fOA(My7>eIiN6sFyB4%}P{*Jdy`{$g+Q|oa8j&Dq$g)AGrs|Q2xBn
z5O2;L=A7e~)79LMzB9fgaWLvNp+|Xdog`2Bzs$4#>JE5D>4jsbm`|%|TS==?h~7eW
z;+Ja|iJi)+?fQ=Ngx2x|8?Us99sN`^08KkTrG3|G8u`~2<j9?QbH!bG-Y<swIHWGJ
z{$(2YP6yl;cUDlv8-!aY|HcU;qJ2R2;)cuMXFY@w)I;HOdDgYU(tpjfvh6sS^UA-?
zcJgK=4T%Na0pVg-6_4AT%MEk>%-ID=^M};iO4OZ$L>XK88vFdj)2|gQT(qNo>3skx
z1qc59f%k^@*#@|ajq8_s{<GzZI@jp0oy_F-x=ykU#F<4r>WJ3S0~1U!ZlO#}KKW3b
zD6w+loGpu!LSKB~G4Xq%M^UaPrk=ttRj23$UuHNXUdf9&pqR=5X63ik{mC=j@)>`g
z=GpFC=qe=2`gwi6>VmZ!F6;~*{e~?2AVd6_g&^A&yAh^UlW9OklpUpH?xXQ2Pv_FF
zD5h*jliWTzWi$GgzV5CdQw_H{_G@fqEEc#O1J>mJFpB$5iQ;V{@3>m@+Z@9A;|+1Q
z9G53#SHOsw3Hbs>Gwv<i{?9u;!@g?k(I|Dr@paK%bfK`iImA5Aj>sM8HYL_BWwM@l
z^;tH;+!=P*A+PHJ;TE>(l%a3KkK4$D?STill)k;7ZyLgx-5z)BX{rvap_(>kBhn7x
z$j5N)2RiK1%}Hz$%iwe$VMm1D5yE_HmG*__a87tuXE_edW`N!-J3>n;MxKSk07IbX
zb}kw9s+%z9+C|2Byd-&Ad+|n4FQ54Zbqdso>SY^U%On^w>UrMKQ|r_N+<Uon;)|s0
zb4)h(+r0YyL6Zjkeogn~HHUlQz^M!K@YIQ01N{(@=HRqB^^zC-Ye?!3dDJJ^zIV-2
z@sYaRz(*adXY)pwd2nup$ohQ+bN|fZ3(h6cv=i;|Z^)gi?4=V^$C;X37q`a`vK5ft
zh>)7<X&j|XU4FhvpP)q?s`yy5A70S~jCBxozDDUD<rs3(fiHr`-XYf1_lVd03*hYD
z4dJBAYm@TFDfhiVIyL`^7`HOOQLlq7W`O$yJ}Becws^`Pf9GKe$<X$Dn8y;({+&`k
z$P@l*_a_aMp{B7VRUZ~ZtmW35?4-^)Nn_IC8fZrU%ROUw!o`?LCLYPfwUb%pqOV|j
ztu~~7D5rcB+sVU=p=Hc<-h%tSmbOcZWBb@VF?Y5bl44pTwz)cpcO$HoX?A!=30<G}
z%xe+vA70b;K$hapCytd(&K8gdUP*c_O!JyXEhz-i7dIA}x3$s>Q_BD!r^wdPc9nUl
zi23tCt<B)qgY9GlZdv?^%VIvcb=7tZ_x9i$B|QS`sI+$?c+y#?V0n(kjn$U~uN+U~
zh`D5AdmkR6)vvd?55#{rld?g=c(QDoF)WJ+ynqXPB;OJbh$9m|C$?gp;M{WWDQGOp
z51D^fmV8QYY5UeS(%Exs*^eB#ya$Qu&^^lfR4zy--uuxt!>`-qXEepU=P=pVK46)?
zot!63VM;pp95;RL%^95P;23&Jdp+S!LJqWLGoV5af8h6vBG_}LFgD~m;MZpgW(v0;
zd7fMK*5mr%yy14fF!I1_LC>{(Mq{s{PQQIq(u53%-Ion%hM)DPd)28yctPMSGwE=f
zp{=1-%Q;xBnGaB=?luV?JGW;VRrO`~Vr~O(qc}<mm++f+TxxZAe>KQGuu*nvFqj@<
zd4qS4!J9WU1uH6~YW(OIwDQ2z#ljA*(C$JfrJ1`%SMeuhP9)z*tI;>mmCrVH$FXWQ
zwnK*8%|AUP!d_ZkbI1GAF0t<cw;|SUg1Ihz4Q)tl=T1vgy`a5<tCj`1-KsXU3;CY`
z?h7Ex#C8sVj!;c(NQ=s)#Np-Dov<3(&qo_&pvhw%5w7F}@JZ)4g`Aa0CvE#We1f)F
zosjEO%BC6n>8?;7bE>_dlLDKPvIavBR_bkJAve+f9C_qfQh^-!Euw%I!C^6wH?%)L
zW{U8r6Jb5hNmQzPfMb@_4%{8}N6S$wf4A>wgMGkVv0x4ix>oFclatne&K;uzxzR0?
zK#i#6_}7;W^~AFzF8gq52%dcg@lr8r@_ASW6U}ry<Dw17T6>_?0b8WconY(ZJVbY_
zd2Zl`os`FNw_Onq)K}8pr|r-$-M|j6IB*5yf&m#`R+M%T_y7E2fzCH7x@g*-pY!3u
zisLrnV<sV42a!SMQ`MgF64m=ps?Fly@sJe%16?GRCxd1#cgLMgxc5J!n?0%f`3pO+
z+V#l&%gNl8in@P-xXE1nSc@y>Hqr~_(5o!mK)5D#=m|TEa`G@RT9pEF@C|-c+Zn;e
zN;s$YT?RjqNC#Y($pq7_j}zXE)n@Yvay$Giyzv>Mg-rqS*tPLb?OO>8i3*s^FoQ#v
zJ)j`yDed(cQ$nByzU$3*(u2^OF*tX>N&2+5N3GSqLl3lK?!jL*RD+P?ume{Ep2)7;
z&2b98hHO6Vz(<ch=K$h6=f6pEllsZM=~X_v^gGk_Ch67SKc|yCW-q?_Q5GGA{zucl
zRt`Rpw2#V>wFzJ2`mniW?c<q<UI6l@El@f2vEXc6GCv!u^(8+|@8SiAk(b>gkja#2
z?UiF|A6vs*L50vk>6Z47QqicFT;*xASGOR_+_F0IY?B32b=rZadXT|n!{Ni~lJ)1m
z6Zgbjd=uElID4amV^kesz?QE(E3pFm0kMXKu!V$x*Z04O42?Wnr15OB^jZ?Y8_XL7
z;1CR7AbKm^Uk9M_i|IqiJI8W4vE+9zkiOAQQpRLXBiaHD0u33snLz-<4B}#S)7^gu
zd>{H=`#Gb(l<$P`USpLYj;RH|9`%HIpd-&Ld_U(;uWoY31U3xVMmrF_upBb`m{|pF
zQ;p7gk)U_N<E%p>bhoBieVfgH4rxLPp9;D4eTm&rfB9%nX8AGP-waI}p*Oe+PoL}(
z6Aze8g~bH6u^bBpuYKuf3gyIyY#{G(Pv-nugLg^N0s7w63}uqsMvqEygMrz*h7;7F
zTI6AUm-D>#0}OGxly!4k(UdaU;g24l*-`wxChE7-1kro9S%u%Qh;L1WxNz|;h6CBh
z%WB0plM`9@G!B`jLzp>NIpO!7Ho`5X{(&v>t`}LV9cpMlvWVhDgRe%QsEfe&r;A%5
z$<Cb`IL-KRy*vO5$vIO0EIYt;F015H*r^<`7KF**T-;;ovo*<AlwYp#srZyGy41P$
zCh+CmhGui_WYZpLa^M9rX?nT8fOEcqIH1l$YJ)PA8Xq{oDa(kh^UTk&S0^D!n%Bb0
z+Wb5Ho&fz0i^3Q2t45DqwPfah&8g1Gb%xELZ{$Y8o>CUOn#k+E4b5iJ^sP>LvGl9R
zI)=A)K^GM^Ly+AjjeW+Ka++=ecn-)%+OQwrn2J3$m5}AI#^VJoo?^%wR#&d0>n~HD
zZ`LO`3K0*XC|zPty#i>KKKb%^#^)BhVP<|$8c8wiY>9!-H^X$0S+W&v%R)B^zt12(
zfBGw$F~5Qhb_sgy%!;gAGahDX{JjQuMfU1ndLP@rW)%Jcd5bL|efD3OqlM}YBEOiV
zJIo%i%o6<&bziYm!S5*FZuv2%vYYtPXc~F*LNG=`OF71C(Z0MG&*Y^=PK|^%VPc6~
z_|(Pk5&1u|=h;u^337p(6;|<C+Wa8*FFkKUfL?u6+k2pLH^+;bE-E&jL8YS2xw(vV
zL32O2u%`TKz_7czT8#itpINep_s9C)@X2nxKGSq}m2|4!VG14PVOuM(>lNhF)p-$5
zXm^BFa)*RhxxfWou^e2dX{~yPET@>G++NYQ-8`W=4N%>Pm@}00ZhojIJ!S90w>-o(
z;7^EW=ZAAd=PHo`>8u-D=6|<-@0hcitTx?N!4`O^ay_KB;#UCgT=)+YM(|ug0KX%T
z-+f8XZO@d&Kht_AHYli03dq`6o_iqNA;jFn4L;vs4Mn_9J^5N<vPk&8e+p{@EAW{C
znjAdG-;?X6iT@0toR`PgS)#BYy7^YMYz1wjME~<5-$)F91-~7_c)lp*nAV$}!CVB|
z@u1k|!f-)4_rvx`ePy&f_zZx~ep5b#(x)csc7eZ%e30T3?6Fq%!I4Jys{nY*9-uz-
ztlCkzDHXcS89gbi8{-u(f$XCGxexhz2J&+(!xB=F@n8<Q5^aPPQdhrN30@8`JMsyG
zmCd*<ZY`X45W)HQaTw$R68C4GEf3v*g};KwnbeOce6HW#e82QRt;>depzEWROg_AT
z9in<-j#=#S^onwXTdP`nu=ZFr(sWqhpT-Em2RY(+0$hhzw3a~Bp`!tu$Y8RC_@^It
zf@Pc_YdU+;UaXX_*GNy6P|8D=57GRw!z@@BHY!TQ_CbOs6o=d{&n0(WyJDYiNFeVI
z@6ax-nW4YrmQ22Y9pMh;{=hJgKkn#%<ju(}2{b0Jzt7GL1R%=0&>Zri{#8V!bfX&e
z#+NVqz;O%?ja6$xdW)-AQ2P@2mJwxV1=eC2w%UwstYAL2%39uSZdW~k$8usxp;FFK
zDDxCFY7vbOwM~`xq8|piWahMNjN`A#_%)-~JfI&#h-E4>+Dx<P$A=uN7<2!xCK@O%
zBHL10StoxRJzY0eg~@tS^ib)sQjoO!YMhT!xl08(nF)Ll5A@?_Hu|Dq)^)CnAAj!o
z7{^V|yBKN{^^Wg-$%rKjQ)p17X?^5ajC5rBX0I`6;(5CEh%tELk#x05ee{?jKq`&e
zv_5={MH-Dhea09su}%7zK7Gm<Eiql%l%B$nF<XK#5d^T1cE~hllrTXOHl_?vN|QEa
zj2IIJtV!3W88fE$8gnN)NDniP=`)5(a3(SX3e%$v8572S0m`LAnJ|Zq$rA~sA($i#
z5++F^B#06Pq><8o8#DTkElIyI{TnHwORPwHFmNPI+?Mua_&0V44d6-Bo-X1_w3Vhc
znopKM2V|!^8_vf|Kmsn)8;y`=ifEAe5?Q79(_YdVP3I%WilsFfBTVK4C7b|LY0M_`
z!4gJ*m^5bNdH*p|X~VQdGsQRw9e_*PqAAi;5n3WSKo@`qfJ4rV7#cJ-q$ia5ohtE1
z0yR+*V3w9;dWW6p$MlMxsF(iHe`p5aV|a}pgO`?Nc+DAela^)V=sVN`?9jhvj5z@G
z7&wLxr2u;LuUTVe(!3^jP>FHrABkgpX&>2RV$xs3he7~+dXL;OFX>oDkJK?P>21?H
zv_xX*ZR0zL#2!YE>@fpC4TDGW7$KmB-XncXN*a#w6($iqy|ecaDDfnnd*o09FhlQ=
zF_xRoJ!H(6NS4mscjy3!WAI3l08exT00ZLa*G7!#5*Y#TOlt#&gn*88?$JYFfS;iw
zUm_o4Tbu+%qK>pHV_WJN9N?M0EpyBju#vVoWK5OFm2PcNpFV~w&C1Z0J!T{Q)qAK4
zz)rW;ug{TyN_3H4W^4-?!ve4|88nRO|9=naqrsQ>LI1yoDZHTn4pq28|2Kj7XKJoK
zi&`VrEEcPiNX0Nhh4Sfeq^b{Lq{=A-sj6z@Ur>iGXr0nQXwnoa2b-bdAc7PX?F_Iw
z<p@$qYSkIE@>v#1YUOco)Kq}rq?%z4l9NgjhvcNHp{mFPN_e{Dq<n#R#6L+C)kf)1
za`}7<$wR96QsHVO4oPVh!$?UsjSv6@gF=KgX?@bDvSA?7K{7_^pgJjI5=NnLJCcQD
zw5nke5^*v{zVKh90V=~Vf!|7o<{}sN;e?XEtHWhN#LL5Rf#WNM6Oba#)(Dbm1tJ0{
zw}42iRSS9|*W@C)DPL729~AZ_Nj<6Nq)e8TBB+#Ud6HVSBd#bLY$dfz=3P_@qL8wa
zPm6@bNIA*pbWOHoBixhCv`9ZB8x=H0DE5^8X;RHeMo1-_mkU=S(NJne2bxz4H$<Wp
z5@t}&2~%KG&52WBQ_k^6NG&#Cke*SQ@Q|KSDv0q^R0%gCH7z!flXgnFQ)ZM3u%k{b
z5L%N`7c;Aj$_EzFYm){tMk*8wCQD{1>^FKoWkP>yMfm;fr-9U?%#00l>m<_fJ3LqU
zRE*SDem}|csSDbtbWnm+w#;mY@-{}%w`$OVv|DjME%L4y+9zKyw_?^z();fq+1c8N
z<cAW)cmCi`@{4#xPdPdM-&sh>PQ5v2kU=k0nGqozm3^IJZ?TA$WOu0uV#@JM$q)Q@
zR}fT{#}VL<ZMI&50c&=q`W{4N78H5yVP;Gb1!9x{v%pATre1PJ&Zy(Sgp##=MGcFn
zbQ4n}h#8h=MlGH3C+dZ#sroMF{coT9!tZ|{a-~jR-?AqkTqm%;+t1tYR~`3wlb;GF
zrw&-$q7F&>;E^X5<4!0u^Sewaa!NS)?veZSQ{D-la`HF@?BXYI@)xCjJ}6!kKg_#q
zU8d<(!M1E9F3JW)^H{TXF!ct2NRvE+0<UmY@|JuEEfQgfxE}T~!>&XHuVhvD1g~IK
z{FYz{6a}07s#IOh0iUKhR<$j4ACJ?GZAb^jieh;d+)eQsE^>oHb)jv;JXwpvHs7g&
zTvf3$PhHl5X{s~AlTC4xzb<;;GqSk838_xFS(UK5P@P)K3L%QTI=Kp|K%%(-<36Om
ziO&#Ngjk0+w>nddL9MwR!RhqQiriFbvf!5@82LwIV;pU+1cOksDsg9{I_OlEtb!av
zj3H%6San5VSus~d{=^mvZH9)7f{22I1IrLfB(&%0n6ueWJ3KFxx-f6@Ac{<0U9f>G
zXGbzeS&Tx8GK6wq9EGevqLt)^L8X-x_l&VtkD)-W<w;mwL;;SXHj4J)28=J$rGP?g
zL9f?L%^&@TW`#I(A|)i8du=`#12A$#9ID7p;YblW>hSV8O;@_Dzos3EA?%QDt;&l9
zN`X`FL1O4{o#TH>mpOs>d8(}!iL<teJQrsAlrl9QWHMoDVrQygJb%=6itDLpJZqS$
z_>ec$uH;-OUV2KInS4D@ilSpa#jM%DL}Oa2A{?pQP8&j$P82~DPb9!9BRV)y0xe9o
z#td#ySgWW`&Z#&!2X5NlD;y*W4H}X|l=6Sjb{9Z#MC*cpakt<O1Hs+h-7UDgySqz}
zK=9xW!8N!CcXtc!gAEQ#?z?aA+pYKN?bg;-{ng!brn{%Rr>(lrcYcc#D+?rKkG!ao
zX;tx=ap?>^kx+bu;1D%t%gj32FE2Kg*t&6yS2&GKeb5hhrb5PNQV-x=k(bPG41S@m
zhJ}H|T_H?6goE8dQ_dG`w?g4c+oli0%5(u%Wf($1_d5dIF?DRio;&Ovp>J!$YC!A`
zc*mpCuQjK>F*N|gg{7F9qq%{!ozJUG$85iGcAyA{9!+ui%5xdJf<QM`LXn_`r=Ne=
zeBvJ(yA=5gYOr$qnj-5qlYmg%YbZNjXed2z%Rl~fY2~(XEizqvMUIN^cUTU;%C3bx
z{I$Ez89Oo!F#$|>_|~G%rRn#D%W%EG7E`PZ`VV<69&v;M5Y2A>4xL0?5RAZS;&u40
z&H9hORgKuQK@048d)=bGmMz1gPG}w9&PM|^8vXW8bk*(9r&ZB-<khiwbk$KmvC@X@
zFde_Gd}f?+!>XC%{yne`U`)&?vK3R975%BAgJzTL7N@tAKCd;+UBfc(RX&4<gT-c;
zK{tUok#Zp2P;4vOP%O}=szFZgjFM^*9-=BfjgADxu?6i-Jsb(^?U8^;Z-uZLnz0<T
zm-GV2{p}~wMQPZ;WTM<~8LMO@NZinVKFw*UY9lzyvsKEqKb71u8=IhMQ}%;VVF1~O
zut`<FOrzYn<+JB7g*sn(k?hdIEas5ePcnAxj6Lc!%81co)*+~4+HsOg>XahopI`pq
zQej07%9s+F7O~(mxnW9cMj#Z?5f&EB<g3g|OLehBpiU(!jDXDIWLkq+Mp`gZe@B{A
z@gz-t&Q^*xl9`Z+Ok{T+6lYO6GM3-=HpOV+GB)lTg^FW&6YtoLy_{j&T0Ryp_2lzk
zpeZP9P>Ub;vtU~}<BU`H=F~N|4&Zi;R0Cb$1T2c`rrr7#rVvyWsN({3c-V4Ta=C0P
zVHK$4LuQ8K20072*-hGJNb#Zer!A(rkvn1c2<{3Dlu_(`;wF9$Mb(=$FBi=E6)Mid
zt5!QyDmtCG++1h38LT|Y_n&96Ifz;nq_l5qu#i0aWX4Ikya+ndFpLaSFB45fBW4uF
zP;%awPw2}f7rN?syUy2JP^KtlP4_)U*JCs8rEuyZ45p|Bj$H5CX~~MX%8rB`+|igr
zPkg-AOpzqOr!O8Dj7Ty6@(}tK8!HTrg7qdW`GD%fUv|ryEV3Uj6x4N%g><hynA>HA
zZxT&X)8iN#92<BW^WNb2{=T!&2mF-H+^Ep<tu<_*7Opy+QVR|-@6$m)e>$S;HhwyC
z11TIhuwOnM+`ua6SQ&NBh}J6)#U>wSeLKXaEJU^izeE^XK0=21(`Y^tWsf>D@n`CA
zbm|CaWhhf)B+R}PWiZViD_m%D0EuLe({QLUGiFu-qS&^}M_X3gthjI}AMhZb<Tjk}
z2(lAEP)~~CBce1MB$p5C7U__HqQ8TF1YtdmcSb5oTO`c-S%mDfFuxlFfmSaB5ddY}
z2!b3}7_}}h6!!>hCNG>iDl97B{v(+*7)op__uxa#G(vZeL<^WuzY>uA1#GL|6Ug8P
zY1r@mfY24@D*yQ0!}!MI2b0@J1!VDqBI$z#3U<I+?jUs_mhKRF5h(WR0x3JdYx-@0
zv>gyk{W4zg24NUZgx`8qyufoJ54W|wU~(eJftZ95R6Fq8P_R2-XOaH3IG~>0S^|$=
z#bxj{V}jworvqHOa4BQNu<cLFNT~gkUT~a!p+GRZpl4%&b=cGGk7NHLqTPt0GWcJI
z{W?U25k+Otz7yLz6jvW|EmC!4acx*@1gG;^;J4SQx_2Is(9qlA@;l*kuIan$e_iMw
zgx{kA$!!BBg}hw`PRJ2d2;(#l_U-?%@ZXnU^Kki@&^Oog()G;$Tjx~WJr785=x^bP
zV@UTcty(v9;4zj^afk#fsKU@y^^xyLehj8wlrutMedzW<dTrU<ZwTcSxHHq)2n%$^
zN+%+Dup0EvnZpGfc~Vdwc&sci*|ZMw<G<f@323$x7V|gXxt(5BF3uhPfw9Qm)xOLU
z@L#;WbH3@R%xb8~I?tY%$eu994$WK8DQGJ)M|f>3zMmR7W)nYJ;_8&k5P^%oI~OvF
zqAXP^&#QakWEEF_(sR8|bD3CPq&5~wTfgG@{`0G3j3BM5^tbp^j+Tm_W+qF$KWKE~
zIAt;Ls?G(Cv~)yXqZ*qV4=^hjC>VKp83!yBSZsBbB=8yiFsxhBaa01Gn<#Cji`M1X
zZA}Woqsq!QeqO<+p`7shbkr5nh%U{T{gSZV9k1JnRI<^xQP5bF{-tAGwJ18c0@tNK
z{QJ_5oXyTsXQLIag#VF+pFXF?Rfji+qLl5Uc3dpmyUwRboGrAfOSF-|i&WZ@(o)GE
z7{`wB*T%Fdvc;-Dzx?ezNokk-bMU|GEo{Z(Eo%^R>;xvCA&{i}O4S#RpX*k)@b{AN
z)$K>}Q}^YAICnokr~X*w=BCQ;mns@xkAl9N84LUB8o}fjbyoFyng1PU5afZmYCCga
zwHpvdbZ);MPZ?});jtKLzB?AI0l2BPIWRRih{VV4(IVCn<Rtg2{2c{b1(W)fO-x&$
z>#P#jw5by1@MR~5;CS#%o4bvf4RvY3R1s^CKYa&&%9R|lMfQjF5E9>PoO^OZFtE&}
ziO7E6U;ju!>S>uh*8AOmf+V-<u_i~NwJ-vxGrF<-BP@r?4|Vi8El(Zq;<5j7C1|D+
z#0Px4fG?jx{9{M@l014gJ^>P3SwZp5FI_#n^R<Nl@z*#;ENS8ay$D#(#ZFJp2Xa>1
zg0>9KK<)kw>(%20eKX<V5_sMzcR94Vhf_Z1#`h2B4oZ2G=M9>x{ues&LffELeNa%%
z?0$~Hai+yRt!2Pc)#L7SoiF~G)*vH?7eq_fXJtI6=kpZgYI^!@<Zh8Bu4Oc!_xhW>
zMwsKJ6}33su24YFzz&Hi8u=*d-ju~#&EY)i`PM_e`U!IRH<q}yA76<iv(XZ?xktt;
z9?0ggiK}J5pL%FAtTQRGpuFW!h)0giZ%!SOs9#I3X0+lkHEz!DAf79_rSM`^o4%tP
zf$d5uv;1cwiSu97=|4Iz8F4jpH`0GVDAoU7eX;+8VEq$)F|++eUtIr0U!3g!E&BS4
zqW*XErA+rv9`=tp|JUA&{lD;D+|2(M+>7g9+d$OV)%>q8`!{;_ucZ+C*dX4nACyeS
z!NQTBpGnEZ%-qG=!IE0W?8C-cyLr<vshV3_ySlk}Q;V26nwZltsku8j*_qpad`<cx
z#h5<k@WoL|MqI(ziRs@bViMORWnunUg}*=fFO^2h`uAT^{g{J^o41qs-%0<D@a1Fp
zpQ)k$v51<wY`Uzhoci3{thyh{PGA2&2sZA2t&*g*otwGKU!Uh@E^cn>XlDLTTlT^2
zIRBN|+iLTRa;L)}Dbl((LVOjkuyirwC)GRmk!cbRYfnKZ)gqV#v4{@;V9B4nMsAk5
z{+!*nN}ZnY4+PL`Mj<2KaxD>YNPSqAhxy-)vSnb)XXtq$rv4ZkVlZ~*Lbws_Uh=e3
zuI^Y6uJJh|zNFA6-nd#^><?L5L@*3G>P=Ij<zZ@N;db+%J`~_U8H5M!wMao}JG+jf
zU@w&+CxX~Sslu$(-&SFNf_1*;T3&0qXOE{*dT7K*<u3zHimX^iR}0JCXb5tu$0d`I
zm)O4O4kX-o8PG;(S)>gGK;eSn%G%TZXS@IZQO0=|9u7{<{|WLqI5;`}m+khyfIRkK
z(heY;zKFQEFdQI1JP}P+Q~?0EB~z#sR}KTKCX330YpI47`JW)~G}?Sazr7&DWCJVF
z^L^__>*4;sidkU$dr#WU#19wCgUM_jOAAq$PYcDW_0+Cr9%&BU0dITl(=SBBbXnO#
zOb?1v$l{T-Un{G_V{l+ZJud=dhL6Pd8mV)*>_JT3NHt=6V}SAnztzf$=!S0uB%dZ;
zzm`qZCl<W?H2fU-jNZA0wSPw)TyT*CV=aD%L$+RG2I?zrIz3y71QLn+M@(kuraNXh
zenzv;iUhW;JjxwXAlGt|3%OyYCkeG%&7$hcMQsvGnsqZfUZfzZIKFgj{MbEYpw8gB
z`NSrle1#XSL^^h1wl0b?z@wWbr+k{KqZ4VBBI9hf=qW$f$T0VoF3%P2(N0~AoyNt_
z_pu`s)SebH<2}E6X4*rV*&T9!Xgy+~xZJaD0&9oDqg?q65zPW2Icuz{(zPS+ryv9?
zie>Cok^7lY%mSPvb)U4iNTHpItd%cAK8b$w3Bv+A#E4t4XA%k(9L<3FX_POv>rnS=
zxEswoYwKY^14GDYP4CkTN0H}3mHiy%XXoYfUgH}|;1li8{abr~eAs3DaVR~$5{4C-
zLIMA%)N`pSyn@u!c#$@H=0Vvs;ctchOOvn?QgwhTON}B&+5tGC6@Z~&;DHPEMV9He
z^NqUKCx+hcVmB;?!hJUm{oPlC0(MPuiysI~(ACAKK#S^9tmv=v87Xd%8&S<37*!=4
zmdI6KYgu*VPJua&C0p6wYid5VL4VZ8K*mKSu*TR>^fc02m+>61;-Y)iXv_R%I_|Vi
zY4wY4ux@I4?3P<V{sZfkGa=5{wn-HkMyr!dijnBWVOPhN*Ijf|eBW%twm<xp;?1Cs
z@ETo47}FWBmrVCvHLYL^GR;LnUTHmq)5>6jjA*rJ)vzk=BBjB)Sm+}9<OiR6ly)UZ
z{>5W8g2{<0z_o_89agX5JX-4X@>|hHeqVQ~?=h+u&OIHas_g}2cP?>Hb7u^3!N!B;
zMB$HA)H&k21JN&vShv&yAMKYy3CQ@SyxBRI&Iz3y(~)JA9>w3XOAfm>qOwiIJWyp=
z=KF5WU1;(W1$=)CV=kTjK!{l5$~7}0KG~Z^X=pxTuYy6-0H2sQ*-L!)-ZxRh9ZxJG
z7r{cGc@o<`l9?&b8MBNmR;!cbkt9k*+}uny3pY?%<@k5<2-GoLUNc}`@Ub<d>T~Js
zsjo!tW+&sNw|2Z-yPlizA;>;y4NAA!X7#8e?8)7BXes*UnQ(j@#$6E=WgIbV^&tH0
zS8s19)1DJEN%RY~gaI|!LQjUZXfS^Yy)v6Qf-3e<k^Bse8W~Mom@vtStMQ?*4>Q`6
zs}6JR5^in^WS1aAIsqJ!nqSKw4_&OX7-3a(7pU3H)FNn6Ndr;=b|+^UZ65>tQMwu;
zAyV!<>bJhhFT{p_xn7ySlR@iDS51D@ieRVaU#|DEoRE^0BgB#XBPA&(H9a}G!i`-x
z1?w6a?onMk_`~Pv5Kv!s)YxroLeUPNezCN1vU&TRm5>rIZ?55^y`qqR!yC>EH781x
z>c5Doz=+_EQc@hr3$3CxST+n9n~;=+hLrp&U*-o~p2^7YQ`(hNeE5;>f<e9!=Cu>n
zmLFkdsEWR1e!huGD@^(&Bc-q(oL0IrFPSmhMa+VD=qxFH(3HF6iwW7vO^D1(`Rq-{
zdyHI0ge)Qij)&xB#rw!Z{DbhYO{S)@Rv&A38GU+c$+NwiA~gl_XNoObTOaQwM(Nz#
zNJ;rahv89pclb#}4up~uC}pSzBKfIF73~hYd`U=A=GYFse8yvIy&7R3ZG((z(lo5`
zQSWF*XCc~4Vrjoy^b^Hay?Es$a4#DBxiOa#>`0w`3dMm3dX&A-l;Nr_Gybi;Sp|9l
za=l^7k@3Km&v)V}i1slu3}0LK-}YLBzx}Y<zg`O=V@B%^`RR}LJ!q*o<V8~L8OkMA
zJkiW6IxR#y&IPSD5f<ryI;H^yH!D3kvnX&<wOG7HQPG8(vAhzBn#_H6ipO-p&8Av8
zQrJgD=L@tg=7|^9tt_9vfWighW$*B(p&Hj(aqW@6T2Ccb^-9+cA5O)Blu8S89N7e^
z*zCY*t)*t+d14sF!Ypn|#c_>*qR=+X%}<F4K?S{l!U&}YmvEUz#h?NKRdq+&$w~ee
z?JG+105n_uSPL*ulN9<x>&<li61!dk*-aDW9te*+^aeln3X2*UX}=jXH|ACHQxw}7
z_!!7AF_Lqe*=RHKl`0jKpO$6WqNiOI;wwjdXW_l;n@smr9Sa>isl3KCbq76Ul^VIh
zYQ#_eWJY!sHn4H<CiuP2k3}l0qLb8AxhEV1sW(dv_2<je?@}X?v~n$7nlCL*H6pS&
zRJ@@G_Zd2Aq`Vlsx~Hni-vWV&8L4?OEE^@TCD*5|yv;@QOld+NSWoloyW}t&s5k-d
zOxGd3i#PwlNX4eigE{5yRclM>)W7oH)CgAr$qi*n#@t(ETn$&5C)w&K-^%%WaA!3i
zFV*qX*CCfA=6OnpU02a2-jCEOiIHR*q>{w*p`yj%k9w&1N&VihBVq`yEOy1hpYhPk
z!_jTLDM$x|Qz9eDS+V|XY(tm76vKtdx{9@CKjibwxh^;<!p&?OF?D$8m&~P-%u_U1
ziqvL4abD5<rrP>lfPEsl!lRQEMM|7n!8c+E%fW<1R?f^6wE62NGl7`?RPohU9kno;
z83)}WwA>>JbgnVkYJD!jFQ;UfQSalnhQD)*lFp_k7E(0xGdrNXJVeVlZRR=4={k{)
zh{Tb1+P2>n%4n(lgJVWk<qAXOSQ?y))nx+2BTpz%M~3!lZk8e_m(^H@t_W4u=uEp8
zpIZ0br!O_Gk2)`2dn*zP0vOK-_XdJtDJlL^y;k$O=;<&;9FK1?3ybO}_4O@nrBiv&
zbkz>x^{ffs)FI(_Ty48q1BOO0s66I*M>CFcpHlT}c+EbZu6j~IPhoY5-@8W$<an%E
zCkN^fO027_+O;PS*M6IJAl*oU6u^W~3py2eb+AP}_c)mj(^^iUMs-r9Hd<|5Yuw0B
zI0rDnGQzM1fA4WQ(uFubLzZsNc{%X87ikx`hFts{ep&?)KUIhgGFv_O#WDBfM}FyH
z{-}Q!I}h}i3iq((M|48yaqZ!#*Dml6<^QmHl6{8T#p1oz3hk3v9(YZl<{~;1<L1I@
z>WY0DuN)s=tLi<aWT$E;%C=l)yG#!qSZmO+5zdUFQAB508%w2X5rc$&Ba+t<k{g(+
zz^fu1#-qk`rCKfKQ*q<urX<av%BnS?yDMp?2nx*V2h~&Q@jIG=%vk-}ICmyz26A80
zt|_qVd6C|syg`g7k=j6+Q_Mx(-@@<3Hv0Kzpofw6P2oiaavxKdX-7LqA0+@uk6eG`
zJG*%QE8YVI`eZS-Mm51A`mVEpJ?zExo`uo(A*En-37M`gH*NaLrJs>a=$G`^b2JlT
zS&5O>CP+FtlBL_H1;(DG3=aW=zPRAANwtBDardu~%<KuAQwFf(U~Ot$?unGyh~tmR
zXKS(}&XF`L0dOyh@%LYQhjG1pw*KH&ehn_I`QC+{!$Mkqma^asVnHqiP&}`x)i>ob
z#)aFQ{#-Wk^t@k&TsMsKJd)fc@<cK7AHEU>(*oNAo68eIT{bx{BsfoPTzyy-ILn`Y
z61XMiMxLIr%QuT~PSi<PZyexC$yJ9WPwp7nC^1v&h|j?Fj;@Z6xOBg}D9Yl$;aDx$
zc|+hCk}aS|j$QlQEZaBPk56qIb0sh<BrkIi5VX%WzxWoCcqVZObL*Zc1iAbC>I!+%
z`l)3lsUm2n2S461Hlis`htKzTR!d8cnaaL&u`~~I-v>yyl7y}G$iAQxUDuX5J3eKd
z$|E|```5H|2-}ZOcu5(~&=)3L$E{rW!cDPKnhFxcG#XMDRrn2?zCf&`sKzPL4113g
z{7ktca_6iWz;BM$`H`kl&VzrmLS{r>v#Rbao+33~S9+o>R9^xntJzAFj{T9)UY<)Y
ztQq1S43*mdQ-Woah_{d!7g~DBEnkprl?NOuxP|y=%V2q^lm9k<@ftF})n@dICm3Jy
z1>H6V24}=08IXIn3(OBGQ%svAr7$Qaj>{;r1F|DO_!p98o;{Z^BU_D{OWhSyTW^Qf
z8I~vV8mR{7;u1kw+Aly~4KSnRJRG>u!D;IYK;r5pDn1KRn3r7iy><R&(7!=Ri@Iok
z3RtG}AsY0-%jut8LYw;VdgN^bBSj;M77v=*7~Tx*O644sxY}dP%|54#iq9;xi>KJD
z9`i(1i-qyW{Mw$CnN}`l4BF*OsJ0O1Wp|`D7ar4U{55<$ZWuL82<Ej-xHJ!n?Z*5L
zJ*!Jt$8SL_2<foQut;Krg+d2~#d~b+Gm;INzL;7t^O`rKrdEb5dls?oNfEl(T|_@H
zEL42k!5Jjq^g7<ZYOvLxvAD%V+6GZ7qT=t~matfPLLQ2&9@*vnL~@PuNxM3t3Rn`5
zkK~k^hS}XL=0Um>jQqIG6g>3SiuIiTR!P0avZWbf*&&ICvZhJQ@5`KI-x<|;N2A?^
z(bK-_aI3rEk@Z>;FlAR7eID*%b2iXXtI};-3O)ORM4uPlMWQSz2Xrj!s-ZDMP!>))
z^P>e01y4o#ACkSJ)^0G@E-XK!UZ{AeezbZ7?2`LwkSs92q8-iAl03L#i`E?B0L$sk
zIf?traC$KtsY6#RF0D96;hL1WpMcKJ^D9vuvZ)7w-36nSR0lB=XkwU+=vZ;u&JYcx
z$lIrO<Y!6YCKWVgRpL$vlH+p1Ieo^oF~@;;fT)Wgkd43FA`S}JsdLA@c?v*{^hS1Z
zH9E|mIu*ag|91V{M>$;Ezyhi_Rx>wMn6ur6Fj%UjV%`L6XW_W|F+cr7QSD4bYiQNi
zc40tRs_CsVdYQ0elD*K&;IyN)_2(US)35$%(~Ci^brZva#py4H_N#xwJ`u}aO<Elp
zKrNcs)ktj^zz9hToZH=N8f0E|W$L(2bE4u_1RAA#;$IzP-}3kSWH~@l(!F4q^2L7x
z-(UQq6VYUZFz75rJl8YF-<7TI#^-jb#e{xo#W5{YRC;PAD1sR5Pj+rm`<Sug3oLRM
z#5;)8!XRcDt(4t04znfq%lD>OMC&OJ6M%nso-MHwzOPW1VG{3ZU2!9?9oLKEWGK2i
zKxW6*GAsE2d%*$J;X&4xvXS){FsWd2!2=#q7OR>)A7Br!2Wv1u$5vm~mZ(w&Ws&l|
z8?2JxO;G0vG)<25kXt<2IX|_c&_81!x)}f}WQThCw!KTb;xP*T0rsMuIQQ&sC8&TG
zi}6|&&Aa~qdmcq=D0~cGBYx|L`~&Qj;_e>KK!YSROo)GX_$4C*(Z|LwF19BK9O+a*
zaO$Ft!wN9}I-N1vHZ}rhMur2E=#kGu!!2e8^KZz>&|Wen?)b=B<zQo*l1HpmfEuBU
z6B~zgiiaQmWCn2>OqK_B1TC-TzWME{foK=YTJfjhvum~C(%b^-){xQeRxLm@+4v&=
z?Ep5}ZZneQ8lceAwm$KK`-Ey->ZhQcpnU+qx8xV|7M=`DT3VMBh|4`TamBo2i8Rtf
zDV97C-Ww^XwotOM|0bs0uL5c<q4Q*`j7UC^2d_=#J@maMBPH-kk))O{6q!uw5$MVN
zneB>P99n8>Z|Upcv<`=lv?2ap;boYjwM1u)n*i$uLFvnn)58_!S-d+0X6nt)XQ*Pi
zmM`ZYSbXet|9HT%9GHSR1cF%u@344^X2yvxf%m|`k9KsRbK(P*iwgMsHk>-5U=4t>
zzq<>&)Q~@qV_k*}R6D&0gx^&jCsts~V{r<`argvX9COx87+mA^TL8jue}ufUKVubl
z*?CbQKF%`eOrgWiXMQ;*>LKl7PMD`w6H?GTOv(+Ta51fVQRW^J^%4?RJN~Yip@wBa
zFwPh1p-o4$c^4B&MfD}LnM~_&B$&SQZqV#&6BmL1R)de@Z-4CN!x6}w3t<IeDv<F{
zU&0oWW$<;#btHjH{dovZ$#bU9;8lfYb^f<VK+uQS`($^wN0z$!&8^$gTXFXSn$}~r
z$HC;mXm>q=C&iiL1U2)kKkqM|Wyd(sNa3r)!zYGurelk-$R@r}2Tl^OML<>r5UOpZ
z1(jR++vBHOxV45)&2TpdWR*OZG=jvom)s4>FeVPQ#!_)?Ld6Fjya&-kDj*#rCiA|*
zN|WV*Y69d_Xqd$`-UN5DSu>Il<Cc$-WR)1>ivld-3!@&YR)B1&GtmhWb>Oi^8~Bzn
z)@@u+#OPKu*p!)2%qvwBF{EzOrNmyJB_e7+o03h~v-OwGVPMW0+<r}%9n$(>?JxX(
zw}1@?eMeA}Rz&XY$xKx4z-y0vg5_WzXW4gq+|U+wSDaD_!;bv?=h(ZGR#@D{dpF@f
z1BRgik?ND~3y-fDKjQ<*#;lZuwg5}!LAu1Mv8X>Q`qJj(MBYo-BaVkMddejFaR)hz
zR!ZD9F!?+8d(;0IV{)iJU~s5-5u0KPzgtQ``oAaK(GSYF-hvmx;~`9#8YSQ%2f*Az
zu2wxkY#I3Pw-+hP?PJ)53LU5xxK_=g_WSXU$wWAU@CRRr?}<u@7o%BY*W@1<?2Rk>
zsqU8g)|Wpyr)&D_C%m)mrM#Lv6nY3b8m9XzZQdx{ft+^`om;h@<^Fs;-EfYxZjSfQ
z7NNe8$@|o$JAMz0_xZ{5?DjmQ^8EDu6$ElC9>1X$VsuDi%-nrB6YH*ewS3s#I==h;
zihG^~DU|77XFR;5`>4Znabq<^$X|*m6mwbux?(BKo9y2SyidKO_VC}i1K;m<ENwN^
zNur*4g0St8%&?gf-zq8G+8)|%^~~fOK{YHz6I65^-~C!H;K!L?M{&Ym00SH+;I9O0
zt8j(8d=Z%>;BU12>Tw5lF!rJK`uUVvFoz+dSGF*-TvE~I1bL{Uc*(WUT_u^1gm_4{
zU4xDqz(B_2mS9tAyTe^V_xmvy*}x?9NADB;@gY~C-gfE!j9;*z>D}pxJde%4TJPk1
z-(&wn>*;QRb#e{+!de8{SpL;|xGz;*$rZPMwO++vt@qVtDt5?*<!l>$^wu@-JoJ1X
z-5PaH>mh7+esw)N6}+M_*u4|X+6C9<-8=pH>#FOkz+Iv{vAH2sE~`>X#l4A2^>fEB
zyaa<4m>n))7TGfR5O@4zhHvpBKE?6|3#?md=KS&*%G&dk71i2ozp~}jLDUA5IYEz}
znCJ4=k$~csee&U2kR^_hz9mV@T1;JZhyOU{y&+Q52iB_*3?`}*e&j{uuDT+BX-7#H
z;xvuz-TKnyakqI&3-VQJZYFH7+*ATh6u%OefFrL|i>&E-<B~Mx@?)Id<2#~ed>`v-
zB5fl^XhSW(kL&bu3~WJ)lIs48^$=3=QBi%Ldr;dQSvopb-g;adYdlh#;$n|FwVO!j
zeCvtOO7D%n&K1O_spEeW%f;JL`-LA9`4jSwLo?z`7itjup7(d3JQCl`Eme{Vyg_S6
z{7@E>AzyZ3@>5b|jW>#1?N{~V2IF{!+RI{-idfl7`Q>;zE9{ra2n()ddZ`WO%iYJe
znJQ3KRH*)eT^`Rv$)Apf9J{8-W^`l0IhrL9-ix?Dj4R^V+S<pB2W;F`w+P?v;5Hwj
z65me$8K_f+@0H?#*qG@LPiXQ)bB=@1{u$MYyyE1ja;b_5-ygis=B`<eNOsK-tN9?p
zKo`SV5VhTfD!v0DGD%;<0bmQ7_LAk^pwW~zN9;tqtcEwVUE!Q3u3<4BIY)rNm$>9i
z{u`gPJu_@$gUg0v<=D>Y^^Y^3unK0X<UYltnEIu1*Lsg(HP|WK{$rrP*&yF$RaYcG
zFQsoK@qu_Y3v2cL9_4&7`84(sDjGApO9{1aot!ltn$b6q$DThY4+&KD-6R~m6>8&-
z0GG%-UcRJVduKy;nQM1fPt^z3L-@dYrPG*J2c2^j{H@ZHpn|FU`5!r1rwUX<d_!vX
zB6wG{aZC5*TU7nsUhwGdb-BVBm$zMw_@_V8g?<S$c|4P%&K%m*fnE?$XDn@8zImV=
z@*KKEggV}XPF&fV4wu&28hqZ=Y{9ob_h~L!e!~M53p<Yczupm6B!suv&yVs#5&S{l
zUpn?ixPd%qA@N4dnwlAB+IXHY)Q)^mPrpI1E)2<dUdK`Ivg;%{HbVaLyeeRYbkJ&q
zdHdqYW)BteP~!MyyY<!fzV^q-o9+m!r_e$78$Yaxfwd*mAU<=1!}mwU2~+JdwkhX8
z=$zh{EA}|`(_zVs%FnB357r2my#*7y#)xr;0&0vOSdTAf?Te7Nx1VbrW2b`mo5fKQ
z$xQb%&4_kHS9Pc-h<R2~iX>1fJJ{Rm(%84fci9KlRo4Grt+EN)12Wk=!J>z8+2pV<
z^(gYz)f(w}nev&fxlf2!QGa2R;eJl^_E}_^vqR_=?BF+Oe)yhuRT;fWLnwM7_*
z!4jCkbd8XWIvM06ZGCy*crOa7A$~IbT&$yS6c5A?xwm=?@{4L<1E@sIg=?4~b1V;q
z5h<QoW>BdZUa^tnjk^NbnrgH~LRUTx-I7B~T9TwGkjE(-Z+nvG<YD#|4SlfT=(0S~
zV^;jsgH6_DTpqEkkEQ?jn@&`tx%h=czXRoRTR~VsG-tY>o$6s%9MErwxdhj(d7i|$
zGNCRBlu2_BoF;Zc=bMf~F`mSio0siluj>Iw9^0-DASv*PV0*2t6EP1b!{5)B_E&@m
z1ij7pwk%z+uDpXL@Idg|t%k>Xql%u?pzI9Geo3}(bMjm6vP`G1NVYtSw-~rgxZUZd
zyjuQ7&-%z~`<>L!zn>)^Gxu2v7q{hr3SCkJRRhVvzsA2DmbeBX7{M1`uh4AAXXQEs
z#kb037fx!txEhi7jn!>7_h#^E+_$DgT`fbPpYOi?^2wWelz0F2oOAW##Iuj@G`58Y
zfy?KxoFMo)2)cIRLBPNGS#MwL9de`ux>91rkFq^l2k+UsaUolB>95tRez{}#0yUoa
zVf8|1aV@Z4^CoQ{330OSAu%mC_8-16E<GcaZrCn|cbSmzllZe~=VDbf7zZdqY!D;*
z>M00wfnCcVp(7Sq{vbp=`mjq7M`{42$Yq}_8vPUP6K7t3-H)1kTZ_B&`!E2dUhR`K
zaBto$TY<^>DSOhtpIIQT-O5x@W2+z{>Z`mBqo#^HjK3`@KMQsY4eWB%mqxgqRF18Y
zV=U8LFd>Z<@y+Mp6vnNRlLbQhWab~J=LkLe?mCZqQf_+cBl~TE<q}DSmer@LxH>AN
zRXI_<DzTvX^K~{CgWfjp`&1rH@5M~Vf|0MF#2&AoHh00k16xm5O#5NA$_1bm*}m%V
z)>@zYmUYPvbqVFJn7)FmKH6;tq}BUz^`ssA1M1zrtmqc;ni@v)<SxxHNZ+GxUFJXe
zF-~ztbmDH`kXLqZ`ginxYK7UgRPd@!{BiPa73!gYfe0cOYV8rSXt&*#ZzJt2dxtd-
ztb+r{`mkE&M3bO)Grn`??I(eGi`B~X7~N+s49@L#F}7_>VMhc{(wvK21C~njChC<k
zbP3J5lCrZqY1l^>WUlDowPf9Q50Tl?PGYHWx&|v`YxvL-sOAM-J01vrY7?Qr=eO=B
z)B&MoagfXD$5cDgxbdln)iV9mH2|dsxB$<j`4S0q7o_T##={Q4ShjCQA!+V{b99@O
z62OnBX=;x21n^6X<wkP<pxtsY+yJUt%6Vyi_A_{}A(GVov9s}nGP*MNL@;9(NWOF!
zNY=6bo(5EX|GenE)4x-}L)a>Gy@vZvQdIR_>7oFPT!3dZbk_Gn>Vb7ba!Q7CiHGC0
zs=Q>)?mn}RJ6zBjQ78v7dmBp<Cm4Akb{}6|ezg7rYs9PUlJQsSb<YiK>ZfB7J8&zs
zfG2<@OKxNzqmCc)vAY-^yhFZ^yl%c9F#^@PkuN)JqawAs_(z%E8O8<D+`0t2k^Kh`
zu)U~xInF3?rTPs;6z?wVs%}6C^_>EV4V$pv&LC@<CSA|p<=cdGZG&+A_ZXMo;kqQc
z<6M8-Oqml4rg@*~Eq+^mB=qyLdq{q)RpIU)^oy!pCNXg>W2?9FCCiXn!T9u?|Lqsz
zHi;gElVsVm$<>L2G0V%wTbXTm*O0|~@7i;&$X7+8@|sDVG3(}TDl@j%X3Pc8Pdi);
z5jC&aXOUHn375s-zFCH40-=|^SFhZ@2-l0`bS?qGZUNnbu!*k3r*Qk%KQQ~-)s|WY
zJKK(2qapCITS<nrgl`@vDYin@&RbP-+4ADjo+xL`yAY2M+IjSMYLu{Zv3TOFLz2Qc
zJ0y3rb;_17Kct?GP}03Y<vDQw{<z)bNXeaQ{0ZhNblUQUCB8fI;SxY)(rLt3hBrW$
zo1`K_WCS^&YuInGSz0?FC_I6C^0tx*N2P+XNnR)Ad*7FnN3*WEXxt_}iMgHoE$)or
z*w@y%;{)o=Q5w1K{e^lIf1#fLeDG!86%pG)j!UQIgkY^B(ms!8fqq~Sk|CYVpD}TP
zS(>>nV)q08SH-e5$P;1%J`PLv5Pn&{Y_ZMG9_*(#l4+DX?yW9JXPARJiuB8id@}Pj
zi4BY<0##J1Y@NJ!%Nu_oqf)j+2&68}vI~N?VZIzB4$F(%3uuoWft{0Av$u96#@w9^
zmBx8uApUATsVCaX<cs_UPvszdkz<%;)%<zg)IEqHep=a*BS8+a^4<!3ux`gTg10i_
zJtu-QSrvY>uJ=A<S9%N8!deglxJ45e%!qM~XM`y6s*?2VNxD)EYY3;jWm)`8_q?Zp
zQiW}}(S@UB_nZ8p$eY6N+R?h`r4!xm*28Zo_Wm{N8z%73*bi01QxI};>ZFqCdv|{e
zY+2^U81fn&^+<IdJcts3)G=sm``HrgehFui^C{#K=MmWlroM;Ryu&uW;Lt9_QGBog
zzi-3v;RVM&w`YrOG{cdkz(5h4q0yiiYTmkVBfMl;;VSN1sa-o~SJNB&l1<G0z`dzJ
z57*k^PEa4CCsF@fl*_A-O2<2f&0aU;)*k&lmTQ7q=IX;mB)_of%PUZzLsG`Cdu3CO
z;SXiGV>ef+xzlqN-u&uu^@S!SZ@h4-YC#QW*UwM$VV5sDj;+tH$GCHzGhT+Y2RKEC
zEEj8X4cS6F0+wo!eusQl>%mqSHSbjm`Uf#(P4B+69w%yFnZoL#ZWr}?=th}d!7j}^
z1BQ0!-*h=ZJaL-9H}CGM^@*r0k@%HJ>rn4>4b~ny(!;v9<`1S<ODv{-IA#^S9%qFS
zUdDX6B>utl7W^aK6-%yowp7v@vtWd@J{_5E<Gw!{#9dE@Eayu5!<?|DT<UMN=L${7
z5S;B0BdZV5(7tYfZT)dPzryDZWl~iFtS+wU##v?3k5*?OKJNv=%x3lG2n+3=R@tD?
zgG-`kBSBIDiI2vw?aFweR@8Tkd}(R-KbW2udYSC)v;d4ZarJG`j0Oh<%#!t&i?FPU
z%grwVurJ%M*-*R2m)-*gEitetN>?W@0(*ADB!EL->iajCU0+mvH-eU$+s#NE66DyR
z@(R-TpDHQ&Dvv=CwD*E>qe_5CZ{V!DKH_WS!XsVa;j4lqJ11DCK<u3p-E}pPd8!{C
zbyic;`yo4$hd9;xOU`_mPhUSIu`IvWEBY~NuT@@EBnt8B!1ioL6r<r?zc6Yje>zA0
z)34>{=O0#Qw;xwZbCv{_I{o;s<#M+-CN~vzHj;5G=`Q6t3uV8T^dEiW%Dd;q_mN;O
zS$dSX%S0v~{oa$GAvardGX9Z6T4fC3jKk5ZQbWy@dRP`f7pBKl^kvvxv>MALE}<fv
z9;aS@SY0#~L7U91E<r*R8=+No*bi_MHjc$AHEaiH2ph*_6&rQ~P>7bm(_pK9HY-mM
z1we~lhws7vATz5^kP)Rs_(5vck)Q|Q5gmlbqce+5m=Uf2$RU_W@mXzH8bBU~gu^N?
z9g&bP8Ucq#Z<de{EIJ!r1dm7hSzS61KqLADe@wTB0PqjH#h#TL-WT;jXqA^n1*9Py
zGwz`SHp2Aiiz*TrMHxSGn<Pw%^1>fe7lkH(L|5Uh={{>q697a2RpFoE;o+<)ii#5u
z!y3^Nsf$_@EJQO9cnqa60CC~$=(EbwkbpyY88lTxX#s$H`1~hTUFnVl9nn8w58)3V
z>0Ipqsc33ZfG~cO7STS@@~|%mJT!Y@35MY>y2IUJFJya`03rBCm0?uTE*uxVVNcO6
zEEoA<6~GqUqt39V=r_1W)nOb_L7eL!2}<F9WP7Fn68J~uVWIFBvEi+7Khix%(M_D|
zoCMGC4)VR)gy!%U^<iDnH?qBi1g`K7z}}Ro0gj9Eu&t;8mW%K(ou~o!bz;J+=-cN#
z2>=t^3e}!BU<%$_W0*}e2m4wIpaj1{w<iNog7elJHWektQUw(0NlOotixOkkOAR{!
zP~lf7_Cx@vaIJ>J{-STBdj^1R9GCcnY*7!m6~;XWz*^Wk#hxNSH{9-%OJu@?r~^*D
z%&;V&8GeOyPXo{l_n4iK8D5D~uQ;p&Fc)2f(`MMC1XP5rQ;Uxii~Zk+X)sz{AkzQW
zVDUxzx2W?#`Y$3DJf1apL2stsk#2b$i-AC_aytK%P6rf1y^w#}*z&8uoG8lH?Z}29
z)wWJPrh=C72(_;9PY5`gT%%Uy02xuUa%A<qNwCIbO$#ZONe;GaQ+i?2_@YTFHXEHz
zk=XdONgFnWj{ICfOMwKw_;(bAg#zUm2!`vX;W?9N>?HRt8D4gk7<ir7B{IzzLWV(W
z7L6Ddo!CV(-53=eGwbg^2c#J!tyuJ8jCIVcSQ^Qk;eMkrz-WF(3CArO=!yP~6m=W@
z+ZfGS2Wgs2eduoKQMK`?^yY5i4+6u}QF3R~QE`J|wS*D_<6J=`cG^i_o2~O##^OwD
z9NQUnoJEP47`HCOrlU#;Dh6Jg8Ic%}PUD<J^8%T6+KOaM9(I-cjEoMHTbG7T<NO~8
z1|6&KWfC{h2jrv~)-#O-kJ3>$O&`J{uF0w>1-Z#8Z@`<EQ6%O`M_VbTO=o__xv42?
zsUY=R%v@hhcuj#eWtiFwJ!0Qt->j@!Boc!(eE$MjWg@OR@0XtgG7O4GEr#w#TRJat
zF@}u~tp&$cQMt4k7Gf`DVnS9|o!CR}>z=%~RoFv~+~vDnGk<KWUSwm)b^Lw~;P8$d
z^4|VH@h=z4wYsXqCOK|FZF(rxcoU21w!I3*4xE$OT*|+Hi}z;>jxTS!f8e>_T)FpW
zO&XDB9g$BQ>58Oa0|3wx!Qhd6g-O9frAcF2g8r-yAXn(?oy@k)(IP>JG%iFpWy<NM
zIq3LrR5DaOJ?Tg!b!@dBqCib|fjYbHkDuLOy6!zMTIDVtx8C0aQ)OB@60hmQJF>3n
zgFAljOBg(gF$!&8`!g~D)p8E632XdP$L?GF(#AX=XtoZn84Mng(i~m9GsaXHm9E&j
zd+&4huA$OuZcGh#ueoddV#hu)#=G#0o5$vQM_m%_xde@o>w!wwouz5_4d7RX%$d?6
zTls(QSLk*1nWLt`syXc0K7n<Qz3N@;4qfcKpr*CA`u!M7Ygr%IS7h`AW^PPgUP~}G
zUzs+$w1$sO=ymllJ@9Wm6Q)hMw0<RN|Gu@)rsuFd<l)+yGv=;Wz3+l7bYs(XZ~c*p
z^;(88ciTmMv<chAe6$J01v+g^tr|IDtVJ)wg#ys7%J|vTM`lzVwl#fBG2js;U_(NW
zQNHzw6bCpqby%N0=B+2$8ta62&`kU%&2hJ$V_ydqZ;xxOZ;C%{%!2XIY2~+hkfA4M
zTHMPBCvfb!_4bNw$yIyEoFT2DrE;e}gR3n~XoZ%M&bv?(sLOOHWQCVj{NkJjBuU=$
z)E+nglt#?BL1PI~&%AFYWGpf|vhEu&>djL`w@)ALcCE(SGA_r%!kBmN=g64G(^1c`
z-+{}@xBmiF#IfH2HJj*i5i%~jvPL?ghpzWWFGJPi_R@`VEAx9jL!|s6D}%Xd^~`WF
zz&sQ3r_xHQ$cgGNtOT8a$_P34Q4NTne=Idh>?)11Xb55^To}z?u2tVKWLtheOhmV0
zUS(pre0BNiL?gYDo^st9_9$@kAmI8qA^O57!pQT|29{>W7{DmVs7+(b^gFY@I>JkJ
zkpqnj2M31=2Ns8~yJwK8_F5JZhYbe<hg@i`XKMaNmI#Ld2N{P$NNr#$*{gV1Vq3H|
z;dha_egccJHVI+#EwqsMBcu~yM||78@;wgF5=gSGRQB!(Wc=0{`r6z}(o53AGXGBe
zf-<z(_vYA}xy`k`bP(5T_+tv?4gCe;g}@8ay+$k$#Q?I#<lS;QHzYTRB$VXGBz%`i
zIZ_vr|41XxLjeu?3*Z5Kbc<^sgemB-*OmK?{-n#2m+L`4xjXc_S>-L&S`COdCk)Ii
zX$V!y<b;X;vs&uZ?HEKQVsZ^{*NxHzL(JuXC}=^5K+J*yOTzID3N@6)3GNQI7o5-+
zY6w)w2n`DE+&1oq?u|skf$6qc{`3-UZ0Qug^JhDB8{A2#1$7<qf+ZQ|G9m!a4}NJK
zx^vD+5r~rPDD@b#&6(^t(CN_oQMbCYE2wQMbSii%B(o=Oo2}&nX5FzlAOPs|8nW&F
z6xVBecMnxFvxU>4N)KlM;Dll-MeZF-Y)?$PSV`&l+{)&Cm6I*guV}M;ytPtyQ;_ZJ
z@#bdPSG{;CZIIq!H5ERBn7Ed7c)60}_oXG;4y{^#Tso)OlAR`wS4v89Kqzijps>+B
zStC|8I95kWtgyiOGfy(%CR_4nF~pBdHRnW$C6`1#{?epkUxYXxf4>0&6$#kuOoz?v
z*HQ`P9X8m~*XwuI_bB<dh5HBhR(v@rx!7+hp6_odmbfbAs_nVyT1)b|T78rpUDW%d
z_eKTi62}NqDboJDP$0)7jR?df#o)Ik3HY`pA>toU9Ts*~<dd(omXh<-7(3MaPp$7|
zMf}>cW6v?uZ4g^2ND=6HvEzron$yO53ww8eUkmv9aQ~DGjPZzJI>Lyi*KRZy!6q7S
z`+WLDKl8_blkRhe1cg2J)J;yV@7vLLLU<(=Z31WA4M6jeiM^{QgF_O>=4eyBhJ$Sy
zAE9+aOW6RH8+=13qpV%c+UBpX)it`g%?Q|tO<I%;qJ1HA3<r7IMwv1V>CBpo&D!!J
zNj;oNlr!1P`4Jl|HhL{B6DDx@VP@;KJ*1zJu2O%6<u?|@MX`(1<ZDEgnJbCt_j3Ne
z3*b^$xjlTwW{Mu*9c(NrHLda38ST7H@<qh1voG)+Fu0?-Puz=683U>KY+U<)vC{5X
zTAAq#x%|l0&}62OXX<D)Q{U+clj?c45iS~nMX5p>?C-#8>uq-jJaVGvtjEt>=qG1+
z6apPlf4s<$1qFIRJ)dorbtstx-t{YmR^km>e%9wfe-3=jfA1!F&)sQ=?~zF3P(sj5
z5ZrNb!fU}igGdXC=~b+S)PrJ#!U?+R^>8BoV0%Wmc96Qgq{|SK(3!nFMi{tYmZ5P*
zkVmloMgm%}iy;j?__g@AA?ijHTHvXn=0-GH5Q#=CT2Ma1Tv~A0L63QeZXqblsEwhm
zMkrR04I*?_;0?lT(m~u-5Ny3j%tZ2#ae3hLp}fk7Ho_cb5Gi>O$)T*u2(rRRn4x6K
za0R3g2*QGJq5KJmqNH#x!eC~QLcn19ZD`_c7{+ZV6eCzpBWP?R7)m23m^@hCJZStp
z7+O*eB@;RbaAjd>5(%Pgu-$DjAUHS5ChTQ!caTu%J6IsZJIW^XWzauQJADBpE%9$C
z9nb-Yn^4{0-7wt{-B8_N?=YKSHKDnoOFb3amfNM<RNF(_QrlQSRxkJtxB$2Sur5>s
zu&L0)o`!AT?e=ZH?X_*)Z9Jd?kewSL2Vx6MDTJzLsduSocbmltiXQ>x?}>yE3bu#b
zNJu)^--yWzmmjJNp$h^O1ltR_9pFULg0l{J0b>Yb2;mvb*GshR0hDkeXu(>CaDXuc
z%Z1H_%!TF(Cg`>7K{n!QA=ZPfhF%J)=q>Fn?V;+W>QUd8on7jPA$z0wlly<#K>^<b
zizXEQ4oU3-CV`SS435bYL<Xz;|5*52Na989qjRSATkt>W1e8!ckoc!s$^(U-yp}2{
zX+<d`21shRM5yp*rQ3%6>aST$Lgd;<*nPHxDw@=F%OCOA)ky)|9jVHziM7%p#|cw7
zs3hg;hIFf|EZ%{it6Q;u@(aGLKDh4h)(|ytrIHlx*K}R25-fV=G;pM9c3=G=NWq#<
zwM}x)fQ}pdiE@|%-!vnw@9wUiq^yepfA|BswYsFbOQy1V^pm({TZxR(^Ou+2NV?z9
zyEZ$2ocv^(XooDFGv;XlYqm_;Dn|N^^+uA~!sIsd1+o=1mANTPb>1GEO6<Ra#)xWd
zn?ONpShd!Jf#s|uftu!Tc@nEHy$S_BPvu@+573<&3G*j)gpL|lx9cDZ>_~N1?n=&P
z4bx^kL|x4|!~Ic<`(cmPht9!vqg3FY^RY=v(%yHt$3Mo2LXQXJl62=t@igJX%X@3_
zxXR2$i0Nvb*}yv0;1qj>>qTlujPS-FB1V?!>KCV?Z6(RjnM@qGQ-yg3ystAhn8YZ7
z0xy1ANCf?ozIj7AUnpewiJQ4NQ`7E2tNd}CnDz^crs}_JwD=dt47nsvp&goaIK97&
zV@;TFGok;iC|#c<R?r$xk!+gRK|{jkcAMRPsNwqRBgM_9Y?QB)ktnY{lciiYMXxU&
zsMyUicg`hOFj!VNN7YrucKkVI<uX+jra=R<3A?{(7w6N%ye8at>JGZd-_nqe8htpo
zI@X%gHpT=PoCf5afW{Pm)I{prR&?$Q+3l7wb82I%wAv)O<q?XrJ#-J3k;1c@e#%_#
zAl9#6`e&b=DR0kTu_YAhKOX$3EOOlwq$4bb9V_-@!1Qj%y#1_KO=7C)a9fI1=@*<Z
zK^MYKd;Rr2^}Y*0P<1kZ%aq59ZM$cVyI`H#*XsRUM^{1Low4%J<SmPQHiH#F_>0BT
zBa2>^eYw`?^%v-CB)^0NF+N_awSNlVqMly6jmOUKmKx)Mj`^9?oVLnGXxGW(fQyG)
zbB0g6{H~@-YIStDDU2~Na@dB;>c6}cL-h^U8YJ@evzt~hI(Lo{2Mx1-*-1JT0NT4E
zmFqpO?MKQ+MKEjDaurI3Fe`pzRtN`9RYJT%Hpt4?$)4HbN@aXaOHI;4&!?anB0Gj-
zplm7%Nj;xq5RvZoiWM32zNum&sj8%Q%2-hAQ$1JhONOo;`$1mo!PcA@8zOruU)fsr
z`sdPMtLeyftGmc}E}FAjgF;p(bWyL#Xf1?d3AC_Oz13N7+tNN*FjFxgrctwTMj!oz
zv-LWObNK|^QLk36+d2cTWUrv;H}dm7ms5G_-9AuEe7}xbO$~)JGw=}T7*`B2^Cd%@
zDn>cr`5RQLXSIdBC`>x1+<p9!4=wh7(H}ANfEj;9^XrPJcUc2=4Oi{J;T<>bOwE}|
zX6?^FqttDEtVgt*RS9>`o!o`@^X6Bf;hOI4H?Hnw|2zv|Zw2vY^KNgx<WB0dP)liK
z_ffH7z|BE0q~`eZ^kU<w49F70>PHJC10CS-{6->$3tv5lx18Voi}y*{_52J=Z|d|h
zAwUWa^^%})HOyKwOz=}alepFAf=QE@gpvztv)re!rF#bg(T34|b`$ju!+@ziyd2`m
zrfdyNPidbdj~B^BQRC3XBK4oOKa}T^v44up=JOlo=_DCsnBK27bu{U;Z&}~3HDYAC
zE!stHST4wav9S+m-AEc57_jn8u3Rm3rat%hkCC?lD-WKCF`Z}qO!STZ4wqp)cPV=S
zy=ay^g`|li$BIaxkmY!jazoFV1;6A+&>g#%S8LWZub7}?j#^B~uaPDxq7|zFy|{%-
zmk0Z{D?@8}{1gO&W5D8Q&@7oXz~`$AD@eK{F(OX3F!n#jnYo4UHS&1j-=N3AzvUk4
z;a}~k&xri2CmjwCyQXE28%*hx<+ZGej>0SuWt#JcxTqsBY#*N7zgIf06hz__Z0a1%
ze^161Z&H+0J+151$E|k$dv`s&%}qt8%>BT}A5iMyCnT#quAyU@!$r6B6RXYaG=Fan
z|Ht=OoqX#Tg5&zzBsc4qmORC@x$o29&yU0F{l5q74^{2{6(-%s(r&55OSo|~)rw=e
z3PWd@TY@uipi#c<nzpOLoPt}iIUFt6rJY+oH{g2YZ2VoXKCdq4b12n8)ztrJ?@QpR
z+WNnrdmANnRa7V^lEj(kgCp}iXQn#NaX1_f$1z8@LW6KchD;&zJVZq*iHylSL=qxH
zAr-=ZA5H4H&%MumKKK8=@8^Bm_UG7V?ce&XwZ3cZz1RBgb-wGaS)nR7{^YT8Q;+Mm
zLsPA_&(kkg>x&1cQghqMoOxLO;|$Dk^c5THUuPYEdMm!B(h#OJyU=D!-X-1YV^rdF
zL3pN>EZr7yKUFdhCBk+7(f;C-vmf|ff}TjUXIKil0F!THdQ4cy=bQU3Njk*d$p;@R
zbDFR>qiTf3y6@Y{J4}<BGT13$k(XX2wdC_GW>zggWR0o0vS|(1c>%kq?4tpxIo8=}
z5oWrNObs3h6!~bR5sy^P&nDgojQUw5+LG_f&c9%AdK@9n?6{ZBaYe<QTJiG+W~uar
zlG@z?F0IyYS^{eWE}z9)4eUPP<i%7-E`5u8;$XV{ypqtUg1wI9jPr?`T4#!S4Z4fm
z=N-F^Rh|UZQjb-?{$S(Yo>8TvNlS39%!=K`0N$D9mOoo+pDjH7+6K&wZBr4q3$MEW
zT!u(exc1X!8(U*UXLFg;Jya?lL-rY}gify+xE#A?Z=h!)(rsSu{ri|2@_?rSgeH0i
zuW<!_qUiYH&aB8Z6L@Tvl8Kc*I+#P`ys<&Wvum*i9Q;aw26F~VcOopttkWwP*9*8H
zQ-vMRP9904kW&|Z_HPUqEZE_~l(r#_-ZysjRZ^9H+@ex(oU^TE-uIr0q&<C)*(0^t
zV$W!=_0!|0sCP1KLcA{WPUwS4-2O(6^;MoB##tSn^|j`+6k`6&8vXTp<Gm`QkEP?+
zho#F<jT3k~O6YeoOFSG$S;4ZWZ#J}XmNeLn*w^H~+}+7^)t-HGil4VS+_k|mO+@wx
zKgxf)y^rR?X?MaP0At@(ly)VqaGJ2WT+XBKG-!Cum9h#)t;LF$^K&iYnbEuqvnKDF
zOM2>tO{6@JJ+2oq1@})Kevozg)*Lb;!y3}<??#c$y7Tj+N5YF|%QzxC?8t^*YelB9
z8<vuG8Fs=>SjFWQ7it~4TItF&{YtXHDK5w)xJrwqE2_`%Y!XS$FdEF6O<{#As*ZX-
z5FZROnv5deSo9UnY3VN5vxVqEGMT+sLvCL8FayqX7IHKc<H}Ft%0IXT-ocT7^gv~q
z|6-1N1?GChsZ{Qg=HsjPcS)x&k9ZubEZ0#Rapd&AR^9zvW)#cpNZOofDQa;oBCf0B
z;F|hSbo07Gx4^)-!gm9PeR#<tkpQJ0Nu^S90gbtbFyHNQ)(u#Bu)p6G9)qbq`zq&#
ztp}~9pf3DET)MaB-h!U4JT+q1rHzAym4=bp-WtM0({tQq=ff$Fw?P~D^iLmw<Q2Wp
z?8uX=Xv`=mGwD;2&8yBVc=xcTu5VXKm)O>|?Q+dM>Rw)6a9#1^p#=!B3%aHju~Onm
zZPOn%Z^s5Ysvv*~fs^LB4Qbq>;dbe_VNl7AoX`<i@|r~6bn!^Ww(EHMHYE|B^__ZZ
zaVez!*?S$yxJ>I7RC`raXmwj|QXukS)ndr*B3t_OZ3Rxw@t<#84d>ZZCzg_$mGbMb
zhe^W0U{Coh9aB|xaT^*D%+)d<HxTFOCmTZudyT4k?(Y0PZ!~o}7^`)zIWH0t+gGp8
zpLNT;fVy*NExC(I8`$&ghRs_ZKc;#Cc%br(t!;qs>A5X|hwq0G6k`iPqLLly+i4+(
z*CcjxZyEH>KEea<>3rWp<-M~^^0*~2G4(#upx%FLkXp-TUW&bjiOl;Hltpks?f6U{
z(SfJH$^65X^aC6PSnh)QO^t`*Mfg~8e8T3X{tuM7I0N~_y`DzOFNvJ`$*xr{EhKNF
zP)nGGbfDrXRoyj4UCJqe9NoSx!yZ>!jqQ9#wOe)c<n3&0uLM-5$&ftu1rHCYo+_yw
zZuk(DuP!t+8Zr-$mNGW$jgC7j5STq_e?)1*VB{Z0<g6;{e29vD_WYn!_N`+7RJ~-S
zOJwEyp_!$(GIEYyG%H*zzv?m1)$8nEsvfO0DcJceC*~>6+1@Kz*REBSZ#heZ-?rU{
z=`=WLXSP6H7XhX3jTuGr!Ij`S=Sp~r>}@8W5OS|(Q%Tt}zihF|HVM!A6)NBuwjX-*
zM5{g@)Yc4@$<uy&ce}Uh^}rpWQG>N>Hu`uw#9l(b43p4H?F^Wxdz-<Z^h)GI&aUW&
z2Xb^s-MAnbFHXIjdgC-PK^Wp~VV`p?V^>nfnGla9jGeXcg@q#)%<xkj(t)GT^vAC?
zXbncCjn(_!kJV3#)FwNZ4*k@o-Ztj;uByAIJ2A5EMogFM^(yXZs^55bMbJ%W&JK&)
zMX&c6HC$3i6N5{3-%3iRnRxRqHjIRbchf^?ie|q#@8`fPw}FBM@^&v9=*o8zmZxtg
z6+*|NY0x+Ww9`ytGP3>H+JM+~0lg`N2nE>vI|S~F+NtYL3eQw1g(vfyK%YL$YI=CF
z+1<B1*u!CNaIF5)kXjtXXqt6%AZqA>UtQF*H$hJ@^5j-%R6rLr*8Ro3<mAO+h=J%>
zB&G0ycJ#YiS4lWH@}=!AYHVKIuJaleylFcbEu96ibTRwJ2Jwz#g++O`y<B#@=5bB9
zGxe^wyv$sSt4LzTIe0f}BKXQ>OzYbm5sQddW?1In1$?2|T6xbaXd*wxv_$x^r-=-`
zU9TpwWM})W-H-W&(Sr#JP97Fz4tZKESgw<A=l<ppvx+JOk$Te;9;!jlFTv-RPPGHm
zIZuIO1dbmy5Ds)gs?|21FJt_6c|$?vcto_>bUlPtvR`W7<DL5tsdf#?1k}%zyM%jW
zn!v{TY9}q##cu0c_dEe!=T5a9@Ca0ORdB(%)$&~!YrW2Uk0(2nD}$R6L=8-3b{D&f
z&Ue=Z@|`i=p%9qhP*Ysl?=9a#rI$J{raX!>@XU3;_cki?%Jf><bHlDNcdpeBIn(M*
zTtn|$q9`7FG<ODB;F#~5yRz?>K%C88^-Zi#N{{Vxs8V^MrC`Hzvp>Y03rxf}7*;sd
zelUv)7M7C6pRhfotv586PB&a5new8rIc7j&^LX1?wHHGrRxY)ZB3nn`_+ZVb)|de^
z4E{~)mEcJCX-K6=U;6c#&YAG*MyLs!2M*!b!KQ2S%*M&LJUd;6sre2eU?N9&PFwa|
z-KFP7sdgz<B;|#Au6WZrsnOb+=S5})TITyB%$*PJJ^IVu%>fP~squ(rr-$?NG+`m)
z&jca*{SQsEPTLJ0T#HOAcheE1jKz=doZ4GcP+a%cW6oG(idSUXGL=s`-|tLznzAkY
zQ983FrG=~iU=$Htg(LkuwTX+7=WnPX4zXQZ8=b1@J_EUg+wo4~^=40n#4>WC6kazj
z=30DAp3JQlv!20fgSc7Y_^J9AwS<<XTK%-6hu1>)GekbPX3Cn}3wTJrlqLo0>Xz?m
zG+#F`b4@H$krDg4F-8D;0gpHE9KOchUG;B|U-PV7O7NpoO7lkR712IDNZzMGP49jY
zGR)9&sjoY0CaTdebER92zgt~W8;7Mz>l<<LU+&7t)^&34>KHnfI%l_K*@?SfZ@q3=
zC^P+N|Ec~ag1TuP-&t!rlC^e@{BsCR%uWE$z0=mKxOz{XEg_e|Fzz!YfhQ&-L+`vP
zd)r^LkpmmYyU)7)cp|Ckd}8C(-Z=AqaRwxd4t52x2quCuPNDC&^?}BoyX6y!C0e<W
znz@li@oxohTUy_aQ7|v_ijeg5I8f&`A3XlFC!3R4d~!K$auN7J%2e-ywc*ZUjOcV~
zXZ`4O4_YzSqBnVr*l_Ee?M*L6K=IMe=AyDb<&$20<cLT4!)?BzSDO1I7I}xc6?eTn
zJ&+<~^nzz=aASE9!yiy3WDbNY)=}R~=zOrap}m)pbCO~Q4m94e-DF3dadS$+K}-=$
zzbjRvI<n#1R$d8}5z84NUZb?$Hq{;Pl7^I93NzA&`?;2Og{Ju}ti7(4IlFe+!i48~
zOGWB}mh4PX)vsb$nd4y!hjN@>bg~Gs?I!IeGUe|yw%#nuLECa)_q^RGkvr|Gy?1+@
zd_Yf)GY8p2xr{7ZEwX2;TUv^Q#|IOWm%ov7qQLq%EwfD_5r;<}ZIdmZ+?VT~*KZgu
z-FaaHKhK<C@=0plUJhygEBxE1n-94P-#GT<eV#5X{I+TCa;$yAghY>F^uq|OPi;G9
z_~z5W92ZNHyh;0r)%G^AIzCb4%+u1WeNslZ=L_a|)UAzf%x*I)KKCF3wWGvvF6q2q
z&7?w6+Ka@v4>wybnDgoGKzm+?<mTKi!|4tl(s;9fr$}O}loztEM6@nSko7)`@8m<q
z)(##8+f8RY@>4{RwjIS0yCxu+j|Ymo3$pm!!h5)L9tO4Z`cGf5mY}{8a+?mWxY=w}
zgDQ9#B4o)KaR>u7=u=FehNxXmprj96POj$&+^avD|N6<VqmkAQB1(Y^sDgVz(sfUA
zOm~YDy~0k$gPgQOB@YqBR2KvU$J4ql#Y#%Q=Wc8>l~=TiD=t^)w+x8QwjbAU6SzY{
zZYv$a&N@rYb!la*rCu^zKb=L5y>*rBUVePbkmLzWLmi)R^xNIKd2<4D2^`+9_+pQy
zBD_pW?H<>e?;|QvLp!#F;vLUL*`Vh4bsMxE9*g1)d#nNp^tIWqB8*3EyZV@JdhoGO
zh*q>#s&-O~`sl@Nwp=%DA`C{Cq7J-)MWcNsjlpW@7T*v*NM<prr0zxjGn*&3?h<Tn
zR~|Ci?)uK$&c#c1p{Q4+$ajx8$;Z~^#tR3DuA@TrO4+IU)dTa%M{gW|_1OJ`Nqz3n
zP$<9xtt(HvD>E*6{Nf?>ktp{7-G(r{`}{h0fjG~z2re0uBNqG84=f2?k@Cae8<0qP
ze*+{Xapgp0gmON1s$5NOd7!4T(C&dCX9e<f<KFt|^%JJgcuti|j0oH$GVZ2uziPsP
z1&MbJLHn~!pyrt^fm>7GRVMSMDp@xje{I_wxWFPj>mY15kM-v2*L=lcD(!Vlao1(n
ze(%ennOj2Dc2!jkL+SP@7az>OLA>;<-b<NbLT4{(mWu|LHyb!)kdNi;EDYf+rLIrl
zBAHrW_5WqT)9*IVnS_GGG--O?x^8>5<%VfdvwSg`eADd#HOpN_02yaJuRa_4G(FzD
z%MsUHxBCeFF(L6@OkN#mafGL)zqW46j?T0oPtm2s<RF`azqr0kwm$aTo8qf7I>&di
zw!eyq+@r+f|Awzy#z|b^$nHH<&vSj&u95q7vpY1#lQ=<%6i3qohWCl_@gF#Q<&KK3
zALy#)-5-y8$h+4?h;Ld#YEYH;wEp_@X0_4OFnD9E{!tA7-Kx-6+D{IKs6ye~bw4FO
zUN$s6Yz&gAGZb!{#vV8!Vj*PMa~5guTB>=X);8K5FHp<zV#x3HjuOt2^Xdlim1ffi
z>hXT}Y;G!(^D}1s^G=0DB%P_sKECZbfzRbe*YnmSZ4&3y?5u7lu%gX#ZsGBt(3ak@
zJ<nb3P?n`8uibyHiYR!XV`8FG@AEkF`IOF#<g3W^>QM3txW)1%c>mPKVPKKS)@L>e
z7H(seP60d?zs?)R-iGlR#uut?4^o=AWtLWZ;Zfy=lB>jR?evOsLjv`Df<}HY>lk$h
zqQ>yOJ5sy}V_6<33|}h$K#_=+-2h5P>p59Yy@FQXh&gJkj%{lWG9_e(SJ~3QTLhk{
z9Yn6-^x_nh5Uj9Q@e4_8!3PmlMi5%jS!p_oRR>k^;Uz)39mKXP+wYwE72CETB$f4!
z3-2>QcT$Grzj|h=e{1LHn@I)dZeyh=<qN?b^l~?|cYyXeXV%+-bv>_o^_rp%!tM5-
zvfWIOzm}7E>s<yVWW;XLR1cr$<uSNVyZ3_0x*2M<_syxcsmhlr|5#*B2XS_DzOY|<
z)0??d+I^vo-+DyC^-RqGtjF6hyNf#cWcKbM^`MUC&gJyNl<cU>jOn!#5k!=Z>EmAQ
z1EMX(Jgp;B+9yV`^tla}7xNZWm1X$aCQ=iZo;>v*9uHRXT9#RFF}6&czZJSG2hXGb
zpc>|Mi1)?QdtSbsCw3z~EOtIxUT~6nU-JCJ<MbQe%ckzrS_3XiXKoB7O=Ztl4=le?
zEpUrb3wp~CR$21kn2-*AvJ*jh_}e~t|7D^_<H>E|AIKch%hw-1eWTszxBJtn&HwJf
z>yvA^H(p)_b*U;CZeyM^ZK^w&ps|D{4!B%^NM<kf21{88VJt<DUeXlm6xX$l-eIxH
z@VB;W!7-ZtH4kZS3S()9!JYFqK~EBSij3N235Ui~@1j}Q+lqZ&mwZAg#8l&W(|pbT
z_)Vr7wJLjP2f)`Z*B`K_Kt}g-s%|w=;0@j1_kgb;JnMexNOjLHP;|{riumqJPwQNn
zOM`=9lJ)ZsB_-x^CqZw|KNui~YHJc@<^~4ELvyv4n9~-C`%EoCh6A9V9&1ku9TVA5
zLz;%nZRbf3r#|c5VB_1EG_$;K3wSBQI<iJyv~f(*DbQb_`sh4I#)xgQ#5QDac9=*Q
z!>HCa>`r1Bnj-2QrkHw-{BFm~%LtLKiflC#5cSz_dc3;JMS9^nKJsFjx_gak-S@%+
zqz=nnyKtoc*cvs9ygAQKuU~it_wyg0{iP51d3SMb&-Jw3hiROBmKzyP$R)qmZ`VIm
zD$C_IfADrbVG*|=MPG2Fa_010bZ$>@_=ol8hc9O3l^uB`k-kW|CZ8wPhkbe$r;iHS
zDi6ljNe!5f{DR-$az->~ZX}6+DW^D3v|H$DfVAdDpBsukn5CJW2}Oo|{NX2ud0WH9
zwPCpAbz}M13rWIE@vbhbt-cwD4)MuZtQkAI{_F<qMPJkPXN$LN$=<Vj*AqQn+rBb<
zD>83tJmi^<_Oj!0lgFaB6=!L8=`gn1wB2E^F&6c@<LwR(uFYrXHz+ku3U12g;+ka$
z?Akjj`0^EJ;O6X!F&VdsCVYadE2VbQKiDU(>2CNh4%^incJI138=%x4^k(bXc85{%
zYOeJ|f_XlUth$FyhnF3@me2P{RC@Q^J7LZ(*>K*IVzgV4%WL%HME&w){z;Qm1A>qG
zUaozqL_ev0hwGev>vV0Y`%OD7=JJt}VEdXojkl^0&t+7?4Yl-@eM+8tX~Z`!RQL%B
z2;MP$=hYxP{<2y4;_{B;{|K|Wum3w5W=Pmqt+&+@ek4Z~E1I<p3xq+Sp=@zEwh|o}
zfd<s(=p<`r5E8K>JNKWe_OX@IzEkbflKnrZ+6VtyYAqLgXEPWG!OqcY5xlP!`cQ?h
z;&{lf;qnX@02DY>oknpsV{7K=S$xzD)FD}0Ie(3U`Wi*U%E6jt146P<{VdRDtf}!a
znx++tL?N+AUuE^AWZWG|WII4i(Gt)HbdVN$ReDDVM59Ox8KE^{nvU{THZ&Darj@>@
z))BI&9T`s%k|A!AawoXkJK6)@K<@T*2WNu2v=E6cD@Xv2*}+gD(25DmPFiS1ZxCdx
zsRNQ{Fs(o+2m%5JlVK<%2#tUsu?Q>zCjmmhV0b7D4u#{ua5MpiBfwCgPn!^N6L2KO
zq)-WZ3QC_61incN*|1oS1Sr(a%?;v)gfN)aP&ghBxIsV>2rys)cJ^>!k=(%!&cGOw
z?c}qc&sv5wh69N0mt@IsVMz-KeX{vz`Ke^~j$aaTaE7du5<+I!L)`(PL^uQn{o<MJ
z96*I2&$J@37|bIK2A!y*PiE2_S!f7_P6ruUF`d~dq5%XDQqb>hzb3xoMw3CIQ9Tp@
zRYW2J21kHl?EMHFPC#J@D5N+HPJqEaI$34;osX5QSp7RbR#|=q3d%-i6;l5xf)w%>
z03BVJ^p$#|kfBx|#V4Hs5aHi~NFfub45mGaMI-?dl{7Mm1)v6Xq)?@xUr((nDG&%q
zT+*#RXYgb7tuz=}I_ule&n<vXV>cuMo#bFGE#wZSSW!tXbe0fNlSXDToEcOWNQdEO
z#nfTY*morm6^3-BSvx=+9a$hVd4|0skS9wT9T3(80q9#<NUeZHr+u5)$Ix%{uu_Ka
zvnvG@f&8)AeCL5(2l`e{--doI1d++GB{?%0f0X{W(O1&{F0GHT|Awjt>gY>de{-<_
zCxCiJep}B#An=<g2E~PJ#U#oCxLcA~AO%3Alt!mpF+q3;8Uh0yG@?0B7;esDQtTG+
z)&B2prNGswsrmbv|9qv}+kcz?l_&%S2HAzJqN=JubaA0k2nZy}5=kK;!7wTo4@RNL
zR$vmDga+eL6c~j{MPU&L^vZRssku7ts`mWRud0JHi{wDI`r;RZCL>6e7%&2l0Q@4z
zIItxZ1KdeTI1J1RLB%5wq|bg=#r;E^K2|(%R|RhA&@cD&e`;(WFQ~uy^J{_sX2+}D
z{YYdr8h?8H1Fk=XXtlu)xK^X_r^i3w`csHj8~lK4H5z|<`~$8(g=n?GAHlWh>!{Gm
z0T>Fp0b{=38QHUi@fnu3T!7xZtP9JA!94h>H!22Q8BPGbcJ|QYpaOwCfPn#ja5xIH
zGIkM#!9+h<0nz^TC`k+obg%!|$>$#A!GG0*H2>U%G#3+t9$^m@4*rL|e6g=1Zg-{?
zm1`3WgaJOjY#<C8jYNakC)gVrhr$7adG-c!_!5SO1A6}7hoJzv;QKH<Kp1=zhCv|k
zz)1gd7>h}w0sUmIO#uG-G*2rK2CAxHCWS^R!f<kmiWpf%B@_+@SHPp>6tPM;gaS?;
z1Cy5}N+IM>cqJ4PCWld!g&|Q&I5a{DrG$Ya<q%46B?N-VCMh-ny-z0VV=>`ypqL^e
zirPwCn|_aKz+-<<4gY^q4Ojvk|G!T)0QaSjl*cD}>h}nXf6B>f+fO&Mzik}*gR)pn
zoBW_GK0i36zM&xg)dT1A^X9*vvLL~&P-rwB2F3snE-=axhX-3?$apZu3Wr9c;Z!6J
zW%+}$_}sWY{r{tm*>|S@`PUzb{3Yyu!1V*Jzl6YFGXBxJe!%sY5co^R{~fLC|9Q#+
zyE2ga$b0<Xp)6LdxhD@S*9W|^ayEmnOiBR3*`s<r5S-2E0RL8&_XDwc3ih{^c?Tf)
z%7hBwJv}?n0w8!8j&cllGYl4jgTwG3Bnl3}1KbA^iGtuT7!U@AgWz#^3#g_Qg+^jq
zvLmALz`Jh*2!}#gKy^q=_KXkqYzIAHaYAQ?3zKZ+4Ei{4Lyy4%m?IGW(=v(d=??$Q
zy#NbFu8<)g8IdpC3krnzbOM9G;(;Q4CQMciFu>|~KpLOJaG=j#Fc=(S6$|rE><Ta+
zMUTN?fmTp~ve#Jzt-$qfk}h~827`wwD8Z3vygUwtlEuR0kQh8%PC)@Hi<5^D0YsQq
Vt{{MG`Hp?TU||TLM4$MV{{eqUi7fyC
literal 0
HcmV?d00001
diff --git a/inst/vignette/figures/fega01.jpg b/inst/vignette/figures/fega01.jpg
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..050c5638fcc7f88c598be8d46e943f49a6c0105f
GIT binary patch
literal 78856
zcmdqJ1yoyIw>BD}xD^T%r&y5yrMMR<7K#NYKudvABtUR26e-0mK#N;&E0Ex{#oeX2
zyL*8Gmrvi`bKmbj=luUU=iYI5#>j}Qz1Q4pO?l=sXL9@Fb^&l7q@b(-Ktn?VDBV2(
zx6=SQ04B!0d-pIf@18I*F|n`-aIo(VVtjmD0uo|UQW9bkk_QyD4<C?Glar88GE!30
z(J?SEJb1{&!bHzPOV2?6my4j?or;ZxO@xC(L{COSM*p8aZodIYaL~0d2r<x@0O%xW
z7$j)7tpGXz8UP*RPFys=KMpLMdzjc5Xy~|iU%$BzK*PX5yAz&>1Q#0}6CE239pfGV
zlLQN!l=0~U8BH8AN+wfsK4BeQn9KV(c;(Q@BE>^y0U=p=J$<KunAohU=23p|Yv=gP
zFBQWqf?DQ|{@=9^Smn%?4n-1hsh(T7X6M|^Lwh&>U&Z)`5CFhEOf(EEbZnfvZ{<h;
z=x7+|7<Y?@iH41Vc{k`UVvt}ml0KEedZ1|vBV&3WlgZ5Y<@?Y9Hn}W#@sNT=OWQFv
z>mh%I+-o!c;oB(y0mj`FBp4)sXMmW^(&dOxMklKkOV`JGh)GRqAFJmzi;N&?O$;u2
zD#7vt&dHZ~Q$6!BUxQ0;0hv<Yccj`oezJ_O`4!(_LVzb%23|+P2PeM`D|!k-ulz}F
zTQ;(5vEMo0GV-m+;$6DUlXnU?^u=xLcmoSM6<^hniC>w0iPh0d;xB!Q8!u>ndRCHU
za8{MBM0}L5tG13WaiMvLeP8!usWBsBjKxVq#*D?orY&uiE>MzQ-~)2?y4^xTKXS?L
zpxea3NtReH2-qny0Ue`uy<97cajBXf-eLgZU$eH!gs5gBS;|p3Gu<KdQbYg=Mb6=;
z*{A%S{454p=O-s8{BmU|IIrjPe34<z24QKn4SKIOHK#E@Cv5RJA?j(ZR3{^A7GZnc
zl`+n30-Ww0hZB0n<%!T!`Hr32P;b6-Y#K5a{i+df{uUxT^@q&*lk&+F-~Q_WMb
zW^c0Wv18$Q-JfuO@I_{FG}NB70v5QAz-}K1k6RH;%&C&R9CJb<nIw45U#mPYj-8(5
zU=P*jy0^?0(kW3cZu4l}<iC88fzRISc3(@4oBWFSB`JZ2(%U?%IA5_}-0B7Ym+Yxw
z4P93~ep+k6eV6eJc(444qi)|6^>FvsqzcMI_2{vDc#tU7=%Ynz8C=m0TGt8s<jOu%
zakXyb^JMx7G$K~pX-l!yHlh*{@kNWb+<9J{I7`p6Qt&WRMQ7r^V9h4<Bu!{$cB%$j
zFzPA!l?QaG&|!xXTa}fZGw;ZEWb#E=6_Bl*khe(JJ%21K-NhXl&`!BcRhsND<Qbwh
zjQnD+A11g7<@#F3Rxm;1lr{T(mSdx9NvU6~!seJ+dP|f`DQxaw89yI16CHe1WI$B2
zwrobvd-(01*}#)Tg7^JUpN?s&x{B(Oq-yOxC^BKZ=A1H;6-Ya*WcHpe{_}6jZJcN6
z3Q0wF4clqFo*vzzv>;G)^I;MAp>Xkt$bCU{FK`{(FL97O{Wtqa`(w9H-*8Cl`u=7g
z?thrn*e3*<!LL8IZu7TUbzj3VEq^n|yx(@)AXMW&JY9R88=bA|1ZLNSq+Vg>^S2fq
zD@IJHKw{1?O7geXl4ZMUvpdR>qr#69Rv3p{oOH--aGzN(xd-e<8EKFYrL8o6Xxef8
zJV6~a!OCl{D9cmc<&xRg>emsT&c66E;VSNoY@39^-gpZWDcC%!le<fRIE}QD*^n?>
zAs>nya49-6=4TURoD3Iw>9ffQ{Ta?tF&wMefFM;I!={_vo1x9lK7BAD3Ldkq7Fz8h
ztXh#{r$3OT2pAzCrYv%Z#h$)*yd+KAwzo3-fiI-T%V>*Y#9rgYUv0Sch=@L*RjLX2
zdI09yHD^VH%y$WhD8^(}PNwuHW+Ij`#*BDaz@%2)t6E1J^^{K8)~yr2j&MB$T*2!v
zrcp*CC3GI07LZv2=1P(pvr5SAIb_Pr6XOG+`z<|4E5z{oZKwVd&hNk5F8{5sZS1Li
z_}X<6mO0~+mJ|Hgu-Z)EdYFmga7UWULUFtd(~aGh@o5^o#KTvGK#I9xvtDi%I?{!t
z4@NVQYp+MujGT8(CD9GH#y{oY%8U^(qL`w>b@P#F#}3^BIr2KS9#Qtml|ZD%C|0;v
zAlWZwtYCr4{Qkp@XJI}}+V{~RO3b*AiZI_vJK*5e$GATJ41S$zS@8U01a?l99ZdMM
zZFo?zGZhHd!4~w6dQattQ#+pF_+?0o1Ez+*UHO2wAD@b^#^HfDzcEJ%W<EL9)1(&<
zCqt`OkX)UY2epjB0ng1I0lH+^KH$Mxm@3RRN)+sX(JMHrk5@Sgh+iu`#<BB?t@dzV
zRn}Jzn`j&hU!lDP{D0FDe^aM_Yxvu`w*bdCEtLBUXSJi;7wG}Qp4$X&C=cg!jYIy`
zHpA|f`_4jz)kY&6go2{^{LgbxJ8)lA>biQ^5>Z%yU+R(!*vtDhwh&!s{R6%s0vkz?
zc}e7jij-CByw=M@zy_bz>Z*y-p4tyc%xjQB-6&p^;M@mb)-FNjIe$beeE^=WXE60f
z*yMPo-7vRW*3`7k#tM~!%q;#3Iflm0*)9+~vm;?&QvzrTRM;}$=}KMG#+q<a8JeK%
zx+jglA??9Jz@eB0d<2`DS#J%;NRr)?`q8_|m(?;>m#cF4aHtDf6fR#7?<@G~=~6ml
z@xX8HaJyb&MA$}f#B-t5bt(i$7J4>2XEa|}(jRX||0J!SNbM+b%-_-_`u|NI`oG$_
zgIfUXUDpo_d&zuc08}UzQKDrAh!%-em-(iXTtYNhe6&9$<x_~CSwMV`j1-nShS2XP
z;v-d1Vvb^#);;sObD-xQ&SLu-qH7<#23&Uu&ih4A?kwVPrH_0jvmD;$Xoy_>rD%0?
z1{-k=t_iMnHa`);yNMFpDz@^`sA@&^SD;=s9HqsvR!?eI5q&C2NLVA)zOQ7!(FLxt
z{H)73<QapkxTrGJJ{CHKkYF_VK~GNPvDDn$&D_~2`xhnOalfM7?O%b02=cs86ih=r
z|5$u-L@g}x-WD0YpZ^!r9e3A#L9`5wHey8b5#^1=W=o{5rM>ai$uz6F-;Prn#4o+Y
z`kIOI!x3W_e+;+%q7yDGSbSEFN~wkQUP?ID#UZ*+CU+$irAXpnQFFx77tj4dsPSOX
zW3`4P?YUoOibFrl02}MKSXY8owkJPXlHTYwbz1ar#D3p7b~(k&jj{y;RnjQu`uY6X
zQF^Vkoip1H$>1M9ZUOg_X2z3ceFA>?L_{4Zm-L~%s2Yp1N(N6$4MSZUOI}v(sE|*-
zwMdwSwc2rX06@})veGyO;Suk54aMa<>a)r=q_;WTR&7RV)rZcZX+3$1FN+9qzX-iv
zZ$OV8?t#U6uwmorT|Zy(Z0UZBH=Y`_8}W|c%V{iB5ge)=eg*O-*$ut+VG`;)KN@?P
zatk2QjfG=EE}uh__g4$Qirz4#D@9cL{6gxjKWo*=L7?g0#L&FCy09+m_x+eR%xpXF
z%dK-Ua7b>&A+3{ehK~}OCagwXgW+s`7>|f=0UKo#|7OtF9EHiI8^faG^d*jykJG~Q
zJv#54e#skxG|25YNl^A*6AFK={|x=NBI$dXidz$MRaO&f<O!=S7<MX48ZaKe-=#hZ
zDle%i$a=F|t%+JY2lRC7w`0>L#&w8p?Gzb++J!M+g_TDXDTAXUH+&Ql@1sF%tX2v{
zj~;qBNO(Au`C`wOzPo=Jd_s3&_+^4}b^P*8s3vQMiW*5z6~jgfLDWaR9JUco8a{A5
zi`bMdX{i~rh?HR`&^};q;u(&Q+$GVk5(x&^+MjY;41;c~)_(=C#PvqM7*B~e#E+^D
ze5TeHiSvDB=HvgClt}G59R!a)%h>N8`F?Jb9w?Q0jr~sdFG)#n(|Sp9aZXv?0}Y@H
zq^p~5!OJ(ktm%)7A^!@;eiPXJkBj}yEB_&g)xs5WpqWAACg3aZZ*c4nLGpf+{jYHB
zH$l?=XQ%rrMGP_6#811Q6yTlb<^`KsuDmd;)Xo4t`%T9GqV*m4ZAsLBTgAJi@4tJx
zm)?KujCIejUvbH~#I8l|@U+ih(t8}GZ%T3*ceXP9vh06Wtp9;k=v{XjA2(9ly2=zp
zkBfHD*w^g51+1M-%>V!HPJdUgm&A8>trFsJE^Ccm<xlEH*E#U)#y(o-^IvkNKUBeH
zAJ*8RbIprF<O&KE*KR%Ief)(mI9CEeOy0!~j*Wj%-&n)PKPt}IGiJG`dh%|%qq5*S
z%NXqqCr#Br?JWR)-Thfx*ec!W7Qk@@$6Eg_j969u7GUlYyx*b&xfuY`iGh*lwWy;r
z@!RJQ%`d;*NbU#epe2LAe(T3)-?L1O_9)KHjS^OCk6Np#Q4PzgTmU5?NNEA5B>w#E
zrNV$I(qz8&Gq2qq)`BQu{IijKe}`y4b<JO64}ZXaz~1Z<bSKgU=IJPd>lD$Y=^hxV
zsdKIzj0n0$urhsrEI`2u#j_cA%Ry;>dxg-~P-13hc|ysYYW9t8ZL;c`+rio<|5)ck
zM!QkoOdQk$j;IQci)S&vz^0zwoPC*hiWOm_H?@w~=8qX;QR3ieCdJi!bV&Jq!5X_5
ztIYmQ(!fTX<_|mDWZJZ#8j>&-P&JV<t0FTw#)w+2Z56Wx7wL~tHR)vBM;<@a8G-Rp
z8$papw}7S!qN}V^$z*-2&Zz+P?)@U?3>6+Y+5W4A0|}4Nj-k5lwxaNT-Z`HWS)UgY
z$PUO`pz@=@cmTOS&Y~vI>RFPd+4vcilALN6JdnkOMWP><=e$-*{3Xrn<FG4VC+@
z@f~ol)fu&vq!k+)lhzXM>-$tKqXJ$y?KJ$+YPV>bX4EjA*SS}qr?P@);0>@lkRCWc
zH}^6siu`#FQQ?HOcyWXt`nChKQN}6Wrm~%H4SxgGf@*k;7}kL2bBxg~R46gC;GqwV
znrUq}is!NRg*e4MdWMDXG!OmM<DzWZK{llq7?4hdH}Hz86b%+rAV{9j=M%@{nh6z?
zy;q>Q>(+miYU=^zu!hrggU>FOgd?SL6*x_?HtA1`ORGP|zKm_1O?)0bGLQ}HAg#8@
z=a4H<6lF$5y{Z;h{jiC5VHV(tsvnU}r>cEAGt2CQ%;8|e{@BS>X-!vt3y|?4xdr?@
zA)cHrh_EQ;$B!<iVH?Lj-1p|(7ONd^Q0;Sd=jw2keI?1G;uzZw&R#Cg<D`{!CuzZE
zf#oMwOZCXQ)EL$1I@ErZgHrqKjPi&7Or?k?oouP5sOs69W$>`&JGz=wC#L0tM_PXV
zK8GRUAhso%cUH#aHC`0dqSA%hEE<iYo^&#Tv)2?y`=dI-1IwKE(%Jj@A>7+;C)t{h
zYhvBK$GyFKwS(`aIHl0Z#`khTbmAS-ZDQC|l!Np39TQ1M9E}3m8#Xv`=55_OLEUPb
zQZJ6PPH&JQCB>I^t68tBijs?(C+is71e!$(R#^xFBk3pG>?G)<;`?kNs_7n$?Yz$L
zJm-^IP-tHpDTF75JujEb(wn~_R=BZAXE+~|1B7;GgkX3E8G`-4>kT9IgqHEi8Y28C
zx@XF*5tLWJO?o1$OPW~wv-9517AlMgWr5=A^&d<xVz2mUU0CJEW9ov!Q||M*o6))C
zO<^v-*i@h%eRx6(f)#1#kz-;f`o*R!-#cCet9Xl`e!gf9Y^DtFmZi4Bz?D^eBmu{6
z{M%jW{O-&QLW{4vnxdxN&s?5Wsbp}q{R1Owaemn4-}7C4=IA%Gp<eDq{N>9Hu3&A6
zP~a7I`4tVrLL4Lsz4DynQfjwy()kzg^z}}<K0`<2L1E$MOy0&7YQSRTplmFx!snGQ
z{dsetUmt=)TF#D!d-A$@{qef6ip)FhJTblTlKsN6U~+<mBRZX`QEFk8m%A`-HyajF
z-pqVXewySE^Y`!T9)vsWl$^5T1eLw<r1(*b7m&wPWzJi(@4l@8v7rPjaZ2EnjCk6$
z&JGg}QPea;o1TV{To2GCsPP4+Wqx~SJvHptTww?uSMhvhn299i)JCx8wv*yTDxY;d
z&bSg7)WfGM=uyi%W?H3Sot%y@uw^uDPe7JHdgc}z#N^Q;r#7lG1nsP@fRV;V#<f8_
zdq3<Jlr9$;=_v7T0oB1JhRXGPgIab_BZSpQo-V80DLh6<p)A&YvXs3t06_SCfe$;5
z%ZSA#)><#to6V1Q!sueJ+i`&k%N#3{v&<eC7kNyLE(wW_@(ByhRVpu3Mw1<(5noyH
z2(x%O4|yX+lngsDibpHpSW%YadR21)BbTl!eNES;lhh9)Q8=K{5oH+->_}WS8xN4?
z9;T^*RQa>0yYOOw4EkqGfnT~!8sdRVR$}T(6@!^|+NU#0Cv0|;+QW$QtK^Wz@q(jj
zpJ-97vSbzaUJ$PC$MO=n$q1TTNjpG=-;RNIFM%?>!xK2nFN|s8_}2FJJ?lnY*inWW
zqM9aJEwmzQd4>u-4)IlVmihK1^sgFncN50Ae6Kl4;yLK$xu0Kd7F@IAP3D}iPK}=W
ze<xO)S+oWkFXzS-h^e1hGC7B8HlH`V%E@QT>cG%_0fwW)5r8{&;Q(pi{rMZ~Q-#b*
zt1#KUiR}Ph(@Yu64q`!iv`0j&iupu>g*0+Q!5})V6PX9S(fhJ5Mem8HID6I1&EG`w
zYwk8wO+OWA+!O|Sb0pL+(SP8PKF{tiNQBI|$X!STu_G*F{k?2bHfL4Lk+VqG>anE}
zhxyT`S{Bb)Bj0bwntp&&8g_y{f<m=77w))^AhfC1Pz;6c;j*m{_J@R7e3!y2?C=wn
zPMT0<n(qdW?3N|uJ=&&tLSqmsTW?MYWUNEi<r!C3S@T3p@$N<_y1z1GV<vACw8b7l
zA1Nfy-+^}5+bE6L$1;|XzBcUe6ltOQKC3B1n0or^Ar6~g*;wDr#p|PLLGHB0HKJT(
zchI{SI*tg*qe;4bR_M>B#|P?45_?Dd>u-rJa!w_~bRh8#<wl0dboksgU_9-qZ`dx%
zkH}I;zJ<={J^Eo=A3y*0^74ZF%4SC@%n7r{3K%wm3a)#eX?Y=kucTzvHN~gI<??^q
z7si|1l|z6w)WEm*Po?~83KyX@yc(woAh#*lS^L?R*f1hnq=PTTWsurr->M>YxIDAP
z1$q&y<?8Evz?MTOKzzL}HRjg$X?|)<T%z2XB0=}_AhmP;X^}JLyK+Ib)0<(cskCNP
za6wL+YSUKm?ib_tUmNtH_!0{4iy$`1K)nxv(?nH+sr@J*ccX*Ztfj=Vu5P!dm3pR1
zvo_6fzBG#;0;ahtZL+1UXf_Vn4YnNr;hDAlc+(q(d2z&Ga=4k`29Ig+S8%|NMU4JM
zD+>o^k~glaqb#+qp4U~98(hWtFrW^1wtU|vN*jd!!)4~`5KdXn+yc7at)kTqroTF4
zFf;o_YU5-G#XTc7JrjEN{c*Jbrsba2iO;lU#pX}Ft+vU(8?DaoOu}!NP%~Avv}!J;
zHh0!F;R;MPpa!1Nqr<TmnbVY2!}79LH9FUkA9FZep75eid%aJulh@GY=<rIY@z>99
zIV)xr<+!aXfmEsrjuP#3FLE#SSAh&V3j7UeL;k>%+QDc9D|i{9tO0uOfR4LD44-&d
zwbP?DZJ)5P-K<6UDU8%GmWISrkVB1yC8vl=FBFZ6c6<DB&mL}dUK95a`IFw-5)O-D
z<>-}ok*SbvMi$uCssXmP6Zl7RZ6B&|n^NUHO%tN}Yix^w6kok4J?*wyD&lRML87bb
ztb!Ol0oi$FBhQ7}0b1ki5uW!e>2{Ivr2VW?{?&d6wB15WVAxb-&%Ksiv~hXCJfP)q
z)t9QZYI}{!lK8xgi%cqIQwsPDfJlgvFj3677XyAkx$>5%2yYwunTV@%B)g`y$~k77
z0ss@~SMWF}&Na3=i{0j793SP2&y@C;2-G8ws_4n$%H^sVGVg{a+dxH!qaO@4Q2bPX
zHOonFxJe^k(e(vlr?Db1ty=4v$izpZ3r;X{0ZG%P5c3qGtNeiz{?zgQ1<d~kal}E5
zY%uJ@is+$!BGvbxs$<i)8b<-&#_yFp&0~dpLUol-(+AP6e%cQ8pY}b;qa;Tm&=}s0
z<p|7%zBw%%vqy;sa8$L)LY(q3S%@i5(E{{6L2u$3rqU`PyHA(eW!06To=h~D_b&FL
z`lH=pr<G%n2)(!RM{P_~$P;TP7iewxo=6a8rv7$wED_Kk$N5XejJbLYD=9q;UNN_Y
zCuh~g*{(iKcc<5boJ}PvZ5}wXxWiV55_{<{n7z$Z>Y&waL(anE)7~`Z&*iG+qKNn;
zmR|_n54`;5P@DuVCj583`k(mwdn(3TpX(gWb*IDV+F2E1A+Rx$Q`aOOL}es`6@U4f
z)@698&`!@sY<F$Q+HUa{&@vfAFJ`g<-|kU3`pl^-3-Z?NNU(9qw{^YRao;gA<YAJ?
zMF<Ckb0aZ{-!9*C@mDnV8A%X-mtI{;h|HP>M(+fnJA!5m48JxU>;Ul4YiuG4&Sj{G
zo=0TcUUH{ikFObN*P_YY<ghB!*P_>!OiQ~d?4phKnG6-{2|Rb<)A*D)x~FL99%Pp(
z#X)bP;|YfsuyQJamA>C|5Y+OjFgM&YOz5ao1=>YWUrWkrU&Jtz9uqj?wwSRLg`9pM
z;!i>^-<1)|8uLxXTlB6lwtGm?qQ`IPE|Cb2Yrscv-~v1Q<?YVAid~_3TGXp0&Tn!?
zg_}YoF}7=16R2gq7cCei^%oo+tTmEZRK;g$GOB3AJdG=+34gA(s)M|i98>$R`U7LJ
z4i+B7)rsi3B1ZH|h+RhyXorccjZ?q4Im^V)eP6csKw^?UjU{Q#l>V6mTVuy1Os_Ls
zIBvuWLE6;X1)LTqCe`Ge5hR=sOPU$)n~BR#wdZ|mF|4-;tN8Aea?Hi-A|k?yw0Iu(
zK9Y9J;>-4jgs&SkYMH~Rjr)tekz^!P@a$|o)<+92w2^{*8B8zb`Ql4>s6DvlWkStP
ztW9o=H?a<>Xwd-l-dl!1nG*r{{NBS4c6^4ezOr=EASJXW06}<oc)<4fF9$O8qGyiw
z*=KW-sp`9=TfP4`c>8~ttN+vg>Zz?hQ=CP4@uUa6D>jbX#`t;OM6Qhmg+Ys;U7idE
zl6mdv59CxC`xBdlof^|9J7Viqwdl9LDo~}58QcOeH217Q_j^H&CTj@fS32QfxLO1I
z!!2d0t6RWsUJ%~3GTXfGHPVPfL$a_eq~{hO(Rj0;b&W5R>y@48F{*o|K3HM6--To8
z+f-TK086nO3n*JZ>utQhL*FTQV}0W{x@{O+K(XTN$-N3G1jp+od_oX&E=?s&T{oZR
z(^pU1lc?CV6u9!2;wO2UlkcZ4kPS;S;wblT>PhTr$FA%Olu}uJ*~Z#8beUl4A}0D+
zg)A?Yjih%dDKCu<w8(-Nu&~F~`@@#buxFdFc^E%A=uT1f(yfo;m)fP14?JvBbKv7|
zDfF8hVX86evCE=%UB=L!EG1<F)z=xs(5+htbZO!ArjBN^wd$TLMDvpOQ1+<^6q^IB
zhF7bJ_8(@NLPZ~|s4)oO5-!9ukTKHKfIL<~5@O#r|B`?GpZeARp!@yT!*t2K<Vz*{
z<@=Job=Q@?dCD5nF&*&om3jk(;Fx-Ql}O>&)2KdF&`=Iv2xj8wyGf`;D{)_p@v-??
zo6O{FNrCeGJ1qsHh{ZM)_e3J^Y<FU7q`2$klxs}xE~<Q+tDb0^{uQkEq7?{K>M&4~
zccvIjm<HXChUWmHu>sgRXd!Qr(@>H`>Ip1~#}rGcTDC&>W0AB4`gG>w7Jq}uzh`kp
zPj%93g@>-}>HG7}LYy%_<=c%&t>0*!b6RN3=K2i$%G=YRN&N$f2<H9<QKWU>{fVmU
z7>mQN8C)lK>fVuGesNVVCSIQVsiQ%aTcbO%dqo#l$|7FOP?Nhmh@vGZ_?9{+-sBeK
zW|)6HoEG-Lx2W<4s|YEcXfGGRa=xX#tw%oq?Px~SO%`WcttmQ{-Q*r#s%!N|uD`ri
zT|P-Gl?SbVP1U{y1T(~4tEpUc+yeX=&Tav5)teBL?~u{)32rb?yQg_Z2fkK){l#L+
zg>{z>)#NQ;vM=uP_~jb8N8!10eSDuNNSRA2SUuC&OO;CHy&`c|hYU!Mvu1m8-+ETj
z*3mga(mnt){tJ^TVzAun4w+WPXTvOBu?S%uuteTl6|^>?(~a**9<7VyD&Z}d$lulu
zhFIIOWJbniJJj6Y`X=7?Jdi*zFbC1>D5^eJ&-lcMlEi}5VR92cvLc7?>q8OH0LE$u
zCx!)RiBBlFfUAzwD(<oT@Y!&4N-8yPDoLQTYK?;#Uo;;XKqcT&e(Gvqc+bgMMxD}>
zcBd8(<Ft2R-6s+%7lgAUslogc;h|uSEL|m5bN3${^c;`WH}6uT=6~eYl{R=?r|*Ax
z&Epkf2>pAh)1L&{|DC}6_j6=~vK{KD8N$S-8S{Qb_Jk!u`FizC6nSD2vC)@2qf7CQ
z=mq(Z5-bp=P9=BNag8q{Y(%ee7${wU)jbB791_FCrNG^P<a+;EC8kQi1;5&<o8_aG
ze-YajpGO@T=YQ1lD3A#I^J3?5F(Flf{X_B1AXZ!TaD7OaPqIWl6W@0w!lGQTe^=KE
zSYbc4<H@wODGdeGF+GM}WTcCyp5a1aWNw*L@x*UQ0!cNQ+Bofse5+Pr$W`_gZLGs?
z1p1njh1sJa(NmNto@`ZQfmAqtnRe;R=w0i;pK-Z=8aH&J-%OBC<#uInHJV><_F3VL
z=26RvPyTq{MqnA~seOD}gw%1F7S1A=za+UK*D9XKlbw#t5lPUU{BB(6X52B=5n`F(
zVCM5E%jXFCb#i%i^Ta>oyz4I2vW!a1|5~kXSNm*j-1q1faPe$#9cFeHe{KPf)da>{
znWhB^o0d{DAS<7S?{8S}%Bp-4{U-UeV@>eYR-si?g^K-Y?k%8~b8JF2b7r^(!KOxw
z`;7MFNmbf<eWD8yc{*)qYdW-g02CueV4$pz3pTL=;sI7LVp`Fai{acrX+tuyxXyrR
z>-*zP;3pF*KF#B%NGdyFV($j}l$>JbEh{Z$sC0qyQX+Z8f;Oqh*rK%x^Axw{7@g*B
z`P9?*DwqVUlJ_N=9Yid<43K>#G@3f?i>9GreAKG#EFPrrTFzU5#gibrNB1XXq<AD;
zm_?i2J~HK=16NB4Y~o5^ShP)>6+X{}=xaq}uoQ(l#YBr(rlLi+)nSn6k$lulimU)7
z$tmM#va!U3(@t#GXwoFCpq45^cyd@fVt?T4)4rGJB=4o0I{C26;r_$y{Ak7@>zR*a
z{a_|sL|0v=Nkk+~Jo!_1^|`{S5|`n5pQ<nOi^mx37N{95M=h2D5SX<4Bgf24$5@SB
ziDKK*18LR&h@I-SadU9sY0z|FuzlVstNMRhqqU1`PKA}^GtTRLJFe;7A+3h({xpno
zwBA^EfJo8@TQ8^~n>8?{Ki$*FiZ=m0TV2-BrS*Z|5-FKu!1O>B9!AbE(r!yqYP7Y*
z^}_afJl$Y7;t^L`uccts9l_~6uXeL`FpnW#yBs-%vHNeSPmMk~BsAG-yR*^+*%(T2
zy*pOE(~2qNo7aJJ3#ccLLNy}vg>14djP2qKA0!ON*#}aHS*b0fv8(g9hNsCEruh#Y
zkmQcAX&Q15?@h3l8jXFW!q?OaottHqKA>9FsY}aKSI^B8Olf$PY+)f@Thq3T4V`-F
zT$)sEH+klmfK15rfaJe$c|asGKwh)4pcumz^)^4ic+d+{{UY*oUdHMQPX5GYt;Eq-
zWjPofKk$7=r?o_{xHp+wBWj-Ff!r>o6+8Bn68Y7trdi==J{%5PIe+ZS9q5=+;X=nc
zD_40D{g}?gWLQ`!mb7{INH#~LaStQ|Wpj5uSTybnhWLD#vx4;1MCYUpD#&YG=NqJr
z;#FBuQhXw{Hw;yjA${&2=!V)O(`is7qLT|bIx6bO%@DO7L2a9rvUV`ZL*uzcn?u29
z%u+~*M*h}!<zn*q%|fR|^~cTehxjTV@n!vE-TjGV%8)g~|H?Oe8x9BVbIUM4GEZ^(
zGX?oORn|nF!}Ta1lbsaHJ;f<Q>aJ>~c1JM$t!njGqIWK;{_jMu*m%O&RGLY)C*1_d
zD0@0BVOtZy9ay0cQl6d1Y-u9HPE$9)xMv~9|M&7%Jnl$!35nbI;I5FdMh)Grqha>9
zV|mhLb#Bb40(1mNET0m{P4<J@Rt>z*HSw;?;%n`5v9!ULu0oy6O0UiJ)sUvLLrh?Q
z0}B~H*>QD1OmEyMp^T8QQ0rRhXM9l4hws`<C#dn$##JdK*FCYw<96v;6F2zNhIBG>
z60u+&Z^FoqRGY|<2g^V1@4SKgXDk=IBFlN-y5h$R?2(ffx>^~Z8!4N%km|95wOe2>
zlA(0LRLc!hj!Ti7Ah83n4I=)T6bhkZRK`*);-WZp3BK@P`0H3)=$C}QgBcy?Kci!$
z-%OBAeFz=X^ReLcspu`xG?GO(BBfSSqIKtZbqjEDtqWC~cU|ZAxnOpg9Sv-%@)On?
z#i4tXUoUSs7m-fhY$y8Cjp{Ou)1ZCV%~51vc-iPO)oC7f15Q_oaN2Si@aeb!?HCjP
zY8~(qy(x5lcKkr{Wc{)z=*A-3*Fyc5>a(5IXAEUOMRfu!r-lWO2!eO;p$R#RHU{wT
zvjBfJ^kd^Q&|?ner|A|s*X6L-h8qh4ZPf#m2CdzT@{B4oJ|pG<qO4-={(7n2iK-G=
zyD??1{kBN=BcYM<h}gxj_1c0FoTOx<*S|i{+Gj7o`81r;hO=+T18+W#@a28w^Fa!e
z9vX)6>lP4X6#G|vm|^8$@lyk=a6X44aB*d2!J+_OOa=4pK4Iz?8+%=GjkxkeWUbB!
z8+;sgsEi2A^f@|w#os1Jh#~CVfHUH2@5=XTPJZ39X=s9>&s!^*3hjs!jJk^0EEx?p
z3C|BK_Oc(3UaEXC(2w>Hu6Td?JjS1V>Z#_>%Y8MaL_DA)EB0enJY{WRa6)LeKj~Je
z!*GZ)8t^+?VNR3?wS^rAP(${Pn+1h*yrNY;!b9hDbwTtpQ&vi>K2K~I^39!PCrr3h
zz25En_Mkq+VIXbU;B1!BwA#dbESPG1j%Jncyt#*);}vEB;e(oZcC=V*`{VdjLsWb&
zY0qAbT^|L577uE*5M-pRV%k>ZknIKI0E6Nqh8p<f?O$!-Ki^&n;}R|TDkk8%A~hwl
z$Jo0^>S4YtvK~(VMH*`L?;|#9n-;eROjIvwG9T;DV)2F0bJm^z93SR0XQhnZwgXBG
zPD=l3O*#RCi^*ANX~QEGvae*u4Si*;3_PPW)$F)LHbrP!d{!40tI)kIQXCk5X0Qn4
zE3};@noXreQ%AP<=69-en{FI|F(SAn6`f;RUqwo~2xpL$g)%;hmB#oih!c;T{Ul%e
z6&h0}a18zgf^S=={Fue1Vov83Sx!actsMxm^}B9f<^Bj`&Zs%wuem>MMLUY12M~=I
zdFi{oux;*r0TJxF)^d7+1qrr%Tc@k8@32^b{Z_M78C8Pln%1t`B;>Y#CZkbmTQ9V;
zT&S3YhQVot^G*D-#LpE3TQI@RuB(kpImN>FF!BsXINz`a_8PhB9rm_O$DcF7OilO<
zUWGX-f-BC!wh0j2hc@xu-v#I<OlP<UuxUiL*+FsF*YPY-)s0cl?4Pe}UvWYp@5_T3
zW}NAVC!76_VnUaRgn~tC0*fQ*dHZZqMy7lwu~ZU(;CWHjHaXk;^`7uC32_L+7UJ|4
zfEidXbqmP#RX=jQ`s%FE4t>vh?PBlcmFUUXMR|HDP((kgXzw!y0lsFt1ps2)Mz!F?
zcOd||!j)E>NE(g3E(KZ}+DUNVd&oSMQBnD=pk`C~*(cps78%NfIpi=A+U=QohzdgZ
zSfX@bp!g<`6CxI6C439WQq6ghl-nD70t7^R^)q3~y2W&sVTUZJzkD??T8E)xjeY-Q
z`mME`DTmw;+|Upl_nn#c>8^G>S5>?{D}ef>Lu0!T|N3=Fn}u#l3haP;*ZI=9pw2PW
zoZE|guzhal`Hv|X7>n~YQ&_>Xems`LQshiov5TB%?tUe=s<UuHN%T~_ZOR_TESh*G
za>4ya2cL2YSF+?J3ZBzqpeX|;;!9cn0MndX4H3$}dRwbDMZS3T21&@tilQlydrBXf
z^(;=;ajC{}arYGBYI25bvntS8iWC)2OeepHPa2~Z*pzP;@mNckCtVVwfG{FifgR|X
z(UQgC<Da>WC1#zjQIF3(v!gtVF1Bs~Te{=6`GZ;FJmw#=JFHmk#Fm;h0wc}izTu5;
zUMuG!0g!RvY{hyV0G!n&_lYjpIcc~5?R1_yi~W6_NEQOUseiJs)=0IiFIHZ1i9Yf!
zAvS)KxR4`b9BGyXg0#v>h+$#s&;-uqvfX&&1C}l!RY9`8S^;;VonXL5!%Nh+vj(%(
zl81WtQQ4d$tK@M|YH*3BR+Ny%jB7QLE_1H5e<wj9B{*-_aj?~cpA;$XXtJTH#A27p
z79~MXd)$oDxGLn<tr?gSOp9ug89PiT;2cBCWPB3WrCOszDH%L9S5j;~y`wuVF0{e^
zhBUfX5}$)`Kc8%6fdC`mMlhg+8~l*Fr<Jzz{Uc07E08(y*<Ptsp0zbNg7X(ukUW=t
zSAiMT$!wX_8|NRgM>lKTVC7+0N0=H%b@<QKCvpkWcE`o1$d0#$Q**g?#80wNGQKW8
z%d{{h$}2mz5UO>^WH;zQku)yAfVd9sUWom1rvxfr9d9$Ww^h^;{DG)KBM+*q8GM1>
zxB$lmh>(KaVdTp%bCro7`SZv0mn<E0#?CUNetKIil#23-eUezK@oM8j6VV(%mE(UX
zA=?xDu}l5FSUu;0@{9O;=aqc|GKX~v-NzSj&H%NqbI$EqUe=ec-k(@M7k9klx5g}p
z0lVo96FrLSz%H67+K0ktww<ktqao45#tK9VWN5TLbsHOMd>@!cEVrD-mRY%a3d%-Q
z2PkSRCN&c#p7X&wIM}A=pDjW{e+K>$q<l)&V*Z?qCsfF?^Z1Z8n!jO>u))=K%#zAa
zYdpLm{}TFHd2T=Pvs-2M+iZqZMZv8cgc+Wa#=1ZM%eVicD?kb;p6Bf6S!rm+ZS-p@
z_-6Wn<b%65Qwu%oXP5DHWkDRAcpR8=ej-ck#1YsSRzwAy`t*FUDd^q-Yz%2dY>tKI
zz&Z@OphSqQ{58#@YCJj7&%|%E;Vx%msduHP)QzjV(o@V`=?UE`)1v#54OPVol1=ro
zj&U@a3=MH%#b?Wew#PAeD0W<arkoYwr0VUk@-Ddr#9wy@Z0N3BQ$i>;5|F%$JX0w_
zf++5<TDl;5*qFfD=Aps^e<JXM_gWE%qv|`Vh&@=#GH2<FxTWq#Fc`smjYyaQ>4HJp
z!!qBM?>R_(@3TG;8d%sgmXq3Qt<E`bePi}?gxeZc#i+&}#GW4%Yqb8}FJ>av&GW$y
zeanumufM9@TfBikYYZsLb4<_Po0d#eZ~m&w^9PTSdAzFldRvfK;=`y(C!WY+U78@T
zAVHHguo%+taVVaSTOcE*VMtQ~Z9Qh%Xx*CG21skH+AIn|q@HhpDua|q+XNHdc@GBN
z0t#(T3f2OjTx-2V=zo=eIPmj}<hQ#|)Bkwc<TU%1;TU`i_>$1n=XM>o=B4zRe7ptP
z3ANGsi1z4EinpLo+Hg#`G&KX+2383H`I(3NORqPs7M!}x#zw%Q>pStZ6BN6}_JO){
zBSpBZny>VDYi&OlIIVZ7Hgn$pmB)$-Ac$QWKQiX<-oMtt{SMM<L9;$B${Xh^6*?(t
z9}{DTyh<cBR?~{~SZ=PXAOS>G93%&2$xSGXj`BpP3rz#<eN=1m?!y6VTN-$NXv&&O
zYG}*N9`rLK4@HIVHL|KH;o`~8fs@sqCB=Q0GIA=@<fDQpk$&QIx5zmO0McbwPnCIM
zq`!1^tWS#zu~h9N?1pyC#&D}X@o4+nV5~7?h|`^*Q>U!_?H)a497N#C^=hMr_i!T)
z`Uahv`6FS8HQvDWkFz4{(VEf<6KfUVTe{(@VzTv0!OdaeVXX6!CWQkv_vLCb+JUjV
z6jERJ@32}I`cL{+`pxiP8)}H0P}hYmlPNUT-W|!Fb+aZ~_Zbzw@vsxbBIxCgCunPT
znd=_Qg?@TvB`Hn>s{Rzgi0`uo#=aNNs?TzIKtE=GRmCVy*hg4QBirLT{ne{eg9=x!
zYnEXig3qO}M?u~m!_5~TS66D0y?a<Hj-)>AkLUCmHhPlW{<0<01@U93CM^ENPN#X^
z*|N{8Msb__+;~15ik?&4`C3-k1Mb^2i|!J<zJjJLKN>h5;#Alr6=_&wEfx9XmX1&y
zQ9G4Df<GuPgRx7prafK@bikS85yngkm@4$2ag^wGpT=I?0#<{}OA8p@0<E7$ROBy;
za_3!h|5P?JzhE0Wo@|i+T3I`syKi+}!rGA8vd{jrZGFxrSv_gB>A`XWO>XX_!ti5j
zRc`BtUV@WK@^e3i9Tvgp<;zCW*ldyB*%b(}GTUVB@!{77Cu*OQvnhddiB3rgb3W`C
zanO`VA8(&hm-Hgjs@B%JZefGy*y8ow%2wTF<sZYtG^uRvVmYf-7~w=C`svnt#Za$;
zHja+j`83@*i6JLCvEf}{p<}P*hc8|0zH!X_I}qcsad(uYW>sgu)hRot;qDg#kJv$x
zJq|MfM(5u0xI__;ZpR6T8wUMiOK~>&F|Ll*loJxxfyrSRB2ha53ZM|$0L@zDep`rk
zgYD}6_-4_5sW8#Bwzi?U6gQTl$L2Cc2tEUW3(r;(=7Y6ntRN5x1&Lp7ztj{`Svi3v
z-#_%c4G;7SVq_%DG5ZK`BrlGq+8Cao8Z{jSI=`Pbc5bu!(3P;L5{lu1yQByY9iQ1v
z2>FiVlq=g@-SZK^@tla9Iw4O}W!JaM0zdGAJJM#(v3vYIT^k2BUb9ocq=_AB893vD
ziMJ!MrCea&_N0)t1Z0K#OxwW>s8^;r=|~H|@EJ^tF>!z2dzQ{^s8OJ61yaF@p_tn_
zLI4k{??*{w;83+&zcAyFV6mvGw%mw*npVfHtknGxz5HdY5rBmxiraRVLOJnG3angN
z(YjpHIu+b6bTW3=oSG$E1ry4sfL5(#8nI#6*BFOqVLynCGORcY$#gzz`tsVyb@WI>
zhXP_oBvhJ3CUTrVlH|EFz1Vc(#`3d?W7$|muGJ;XiPsWl7%f9}-1ti8F#=D>#S~_t
zH#Z=sqYRTdj}cLEZ7j7>aVfGi9DW^xC}DHePB7tow+2tYFP7z2jwO10bkN$oU!M9z
zFp+iBjQ_>#lzC=>YZuVs`6)TTJ^XzS`Q#GhwR`L80OMBis8EX{2Z$8>G_8BuZOT|}
ztBUhHg;tWeXL(8c0HPHZ$ei*s#d@M@x6Z1_n(Lu)y6ou4=av`7%l#WkK981tMi<~k
z7;Fh%n2Kg@3Q#>Y8%5`}lEFb9t-I#hgpa!Gc=*=9M~rQ$3tDw#AivIUivi8e1te)O
zWp=2IdfH;EE=nO8sZ=NE=m=C$F(9mgV7|rvgtvxiG`QP$;(N|W#pT>RpY8QE5~r!d
zZbG|XxkP9Z>6MV|+VXa?WLnMIN=5q3LVVT>T^f9vtvP0@ZyjW(>8z$LQ}5<Zsy0TR
zP=uM3p~MiZXQt)({m7ns><8NtPj^H2eK06HWapl3kY5<-_oyv>vh^3W8)ty-&t#1<
zR|_`X0x}{>DpUn-yd!a)r*5WQ$W|KPR{f~*#(K|TXB}SsQk1!Uwtb_W=;>}!OAIo#
zY050QAw5&2()NBH^vmnI_`3H4Fvy%&S=scevFC9n_c8qwUIcHJd*A^>QufiA2h2X)
zgIjdm?L9*>IZCps7G8r0T8-*WCX{N{Y&Y?qWE!FyyaJBlZnS6F4Ls#`j#Q}2X$N~r
z1DmxKh}@J*nLTT#?Tv>oyQYoC*^p9X4_`|)w?vdwWiaY%EUtfC1oz2T<nA4iKfbUI
z7PN&yiG&*}BSo;&k=>0bvx;e=7)O%~M`~_WvGVOq#bBaGuoXTJyySe>imAPBXSiY9
z>UR3PoDL1SrH<bIgK%FtXvv&TK{95|&jDWlrGe-Lv*~3+FP$TWv?e7}=DfgasRBC7
zwnwLty>Gq<N@YH8RI^hr;o%LIvjxQR`MJMx9naE-J>)1B(XAL+!6rXj_&GnD;-!Ng
z(d4W~wI5RU;q~$Hr9(RN*HMJj5NIi`1?Kg0NrmA_8Obp6LvqzXRWh=6d^mM>c_;;;
zn6BeEL9KQasx7QottE+_&nOecIpzja4m_BXt#+#>pV+1TRE=;xAH19m4HO&Mn3Kyc
zrf<<cs|!*U4(02KQYYr$rq(S{xCwNh|2pP!3y=$(vx9N->hTyJ#C*r4_h_S6R@#1y
z1d|s$AvjO*GD~nxZ`Nb%A}knvbg?^{?T!&i>!Eve_}Y9|h>IqoRpAYdjpqXyDy<$V
z&JamIdYut{<aEga-$xMaBqL$8RJ`?Iacsi4#H&kooP2j7ueGMO7_r=vvO8fp@oh{?
z6Nzxy8CzL6iuLAOgf8Pp(TcC~c>n5WL*f)v+D5M0qng1}1gsIG{%-e`x(5t8UY6-G
zzaf(MvJ~^^)VpV7mh41Fn?pnt@qHPu@Je0f;6yD0bTrb};y^DE$=Pcw2IO^>%*pCd
zR#BbO$Gx{s|EQobp?F)PfUU1b^srl@&k>LOQ6kp^F+Ij{x*>7#5zj(}RLBG{<&)p}
za>9mn^o$EJQd9k<#BzejsIaD+dRt6Uu>;CCuhcLLBSP$SG9goJCU=+@Ye^Td*n6s{
z!WkWEr^-bZ%6%jsjnGL&x;?i(vAyva7MC0wr)tgdD1Ze<&$u2ha}lJ|L{m{Nsq5%-
zCn_fjTN=JIzZ!Yir4E^dZ3p1CIBIL)8Y*C8Y!mD2a*XHcydhN|S^@D$46z_MAO!!S
zi|}92t^Wktf70XSGW)EueOFK1YxV;3uJ{iO8-m;)MbM40ZIuO)HUyD6!1w9d%0$Iq
zT%}*A&lJS}qn-AD^^-G$t3Ro&{!2Pic=W6J17FH#-M}2`HL+!FtK>I1F+}fD-<byn
z#y14Z%2tT;0h4!CLz}+rAvEQjk1kxe1iHG(k11;<92K4*)vb~9iqztx@G>`st-PW3
z$WvC}Y{zBMI>S!tlZzT3wXmro-|sPB6pwmu1R2)I$AM8(rwK7JPN6NHx+*rX6$J1J
zI;rvktkKxNey?-$%gAn_tf2NW*QzH|uug$kJk#n!y1Ibw+7HEp-8HJCi63mE>rcnp
zpEJ$4hNf9@%0(ukeKR>aKO*yf1)oqyxF8HVim5^S)a!XaYOQke<u#&r&ceKQ(qh_}
z#6+%Dt1u5|7Cd0&!|SrODyqZcN7KAH9o&l0oP=3hc(mG$$Ke9388w<AvKlO7(iE`w
z)N*>TC#+T`hLqWqfR#0N5E8_lpU1*#gey9WO~sTm9)^`?X#;j4Y-ymc7RTM#6${oI
z7K)6i81V|Ui$r@Kt)?s`%~q8eey22iz<(B2`-*{oZ<Nm`nEGo|Dq4SiRux%a_D-E^
zDysK|@+Pbnrk%42bjfaj(|=PZIMu`cfyz%Qc)%@uWj1I}u^vbhz_|q8pwr(Hw6~7g
z<VbX<(VY0$AOIO<I;kb4nWf3ZTbPQQ!h^Nf?u{78?loJLOz@<GN0ds~^%nbk_mT>y
z3Q(A0Jw8m+hYbbKZa4`|ljj}^rE<t9ix+aLDPgBcAXx?t{eoxY=U$VJH1RBTglA<#
zXi7h7hi$xLS8<3W4?Hf5(K6{p*z3iNauz1T(s{y9Tu{*&#?WfB;(fxEfEpY3R-QBr
z`*OKZ&2KoOlt*WJLpJb{f|j=qY#+N8V52t2rtlf=vp3kx4aW$5FmHHVCp9XfXo73q
zVd3i1U7cY(&1ap~l7o8%<z->9vQYSvXJBpw6(qlNDw5RyuCLgu(4d`VzW(8d>Xv4u
z{wVub*Q#r}iNYR1D-7%<fvy@YGN^V^ahp>=B|U;uYV7-ZH59R>-`po8sjVeq2K%e>
z`jWzq?e~L;_GLu~oUnV0wl1FtT}1V9%0)<s2^6I*scX<F)VZ8`l~?<wWjs69NL4#l
zdhs|-gRquWyhB2o*2%<5#lMNP-y`9S&n~G84TcZ3zz4;C>7{px;JEo1n1imgy;YiX
zorE9BX}FA@Hw@Mrb?O~OKg`P&e7eHQ=^!w70ahfOo7xblzcL(yLCh1us><CO=b}mc
ztV`Z!l7+n?w&_loKZeHFHqamieRcwSaWPL>HzB=`US%^6;H5zp72i`TM#jR4Dtj+a
z`L!l?cP(1p#>H+&eC?tpy8|Fm3r;_&)fSKfMrODMO9%$>=@?`5Y1~gwNvPg0<$d1P
z+$~P}sfOiQ6w@@i_atfGfKguFlzE@?#A+{yRapst%fx$E9w~qN(_UZ{n@aac?V|mR
z$V1!JWy$ErBC*uoPYE}jz<duysAu&^;V8(X`His@Ywc*;B(y{KD8x_=<kzpLQM{JZ
z;f%2AHu7o%$9ivWEgHf4R3w2GRZWI7(&|KymQmG0s=8ZpA)mJJ{YbkHBPBl|v`6eV
z?kZea0=uSM2ghP&Bonynsams4+9`*}lc#mtbi$oG(w;_0F4lYZBR>X3dzi9?tQ%bp
z<?p-U7dTYp9iTg;p<zgnS(~{wAnDB?o2Y<1)<&ZbF*r1+7Ca(-mkkl>HHr5UyP`|E
zw!2EHxV|#UQ@pVH((+{vdX|u~iZ_6<ttT<oHCA5sbh$ODDO7fRR0m!7W50v12vtc#
ziCD1yi)rVUw@C>1ZYzDzu(}~O!QrBz*X0vW*F(D+PUoWR7ui6faCC$NhdTVsgHxw6
zz$2{RlRt4xe2j?tiw&XIke8YGMS55(p_jd1h;mJLv@os*H#{FDb40|<a8UxS)Z3~u
zL<qq@GqSlgQKZww`kuE`pnArp;=}y3Yj6!;ckn1##YN2SnE94RcKgq+)<0g@iDPKE
z1V0>l6fF|z?d7rFqg5c&^%^FRx!U@+iIbddF*rT##yoej3fLeJXe7p=gx$_6Vko_y
zRv2MTXZ%D{Mbj`%<?W#yE}K&ki);8q3Xr>d2OpNvaA|bUoXx-9eRKr0vujTjdtwwB
zn1XemSG{_2Td&rQ%xArKh<HtSNIPpfDt*hbYtVc^%LZ(y{=9JoJ-cI~O(orwxJB_D
zUv6os;1a8xQ!ZHXX`1<jeo$W3X$gXF=CQXU?xw_R2N~L5*@D@P1{t%b80X^MWZRl|
zeZ#n3e(UiLD<0ar;#Kfn+Du(MZA9O*?5My56RN_iFApC+4c}BPteq@1@iuun2_0P*
zGYxYtcpK&%^O&qHodhom&a&=jP>Nc#7Hmv*g0hwd_{WCt<(w`{>R>ibF;sm>H@f>n
zqROUHqOy=zao--?0+LPx3R>T81bF*hZ5(H5@xTnlLL}cHx9VOZr-~Y-)SQn)9#=<|
zib+Ksu(~?weTee{a_i!yzOWFOV?BOUZ}4Qg?9hc-U62bh!zAbNox3*BR1(s~!ock!
z&R^W`H*H@x9hvz|dqzUTv(_;`VO#(|a+6qK$L0wZt)0D>6b>;fy|988|IH)aJkS=l
zj@_G8dv@730`cxGEFO~CNgrpGr@=+`5^BlK-bq_upMASb*_fUmNu@%ttJ<Zr4c#bi
zLoam~^92O^1v3GCu<~Fq;uSk4MyzKA7I2a}-A*h~NjR_gO!ZkdH1y-g*P8IWd0AmM
z?cBp~TE}gMc`aj!H@)Ggm5LXwImPVDE@uN%<6BJ3;<Q=()~4-uoR_7>5_Vjd-l<?%
zH$_~{h}lDmW5K==`?UEV7j4V<dyPX~hT3`dCe&{bkMrmXx{eCylWzf@tE_#?A+~3s
zwgWPgRf4HPJ>nK>_4Om2FVlV8zk{RTqf0$d6{p@Hc`Kw4o^ajM#%&A(p`Yxg@k$BN
zcnW94Q|~(j3oGVmo3`@igE(G~5k~t9d+X`C$2v_KG3o4Ca-QZ)d!bBb=SQ-ZW%1K`
zPEQnw#u-Z@lD8)Jl<e6n`}F5%`3Ijk!;ThSBk1~f9!oU~@ZDF&D{py8KPC{*urJu+
zmBn+OYWaUL_ntvbH~!iuDu{qoL8XI$kkETaIwbVayGREE1PC1!q;~=VrG%EyLhoGx
zX+h~ldhboTfOs$G>^bLuo}IJLzS^CAmEWsOCNr7&<|>~H!)NBDt*Pl_P=W6ugpkZd
z<@()OwD6A2_WT+6RHQOJy#7XW?}27lj+=L|TW%Jo_c=N&D`4`Rtb49Eyk6^e^E9C?
z;ax)k$;>Lhj5MQmD#rI=_5Umy|KI4p|4Spl=*@qRrf!o6{%8Eo0GHSLe_n{W;!^)o
zNL{u57rNFh?p<Q*+Y8HA#J47`|8abjw)p-Jm8)D~myUz?``7NbT>s$lngBO4{!Zti
zU3?eYT?`d6&_%&X!XXKS$))jbLzsm|U#+qYFCOo~sJZF2G+0993ye-%&rBp%{MDWN
z1eN*MBkUi%{e`7VwXMHokykzB2kHG$&cih%zW--PXk_|%t!aZtW}Ax2<e>kr6AkFv
zFjj^zyJFbVD8$AH7ni43)|ib7pf;<Y;B!&c)v=#2W{u=F=%1zwU0~XPDLK1%X8VPr
zYuAd}KRQ7?5KqP)hx%5L6You6$BNgZvIE`qoW)T&LW=VtG$bF;Qb?(KKrnZYyqn#9
zB5?IqP=3o>|7V1Jh=O*v$K6l>&%jPs%NsSyCW#^@D|j~eLHuIjQr^$hh1ttM4M5ZU
zNJ(-Az+W4Ux{xOVb&<!1#MuMZtPp(0>@GyOOukEwhBBQm-eF&1#P%268ais-zTRQQ
zoZblVB&y7Z*ytW+<YJ&9p8Fv|uj{x&Ui%KYRQrjA9#EI?Di=YRM7#h&CjIZuMZD71
z1#8#%BC%?;Xt#>sT+7jH1^14);;-yYT*yjyn#-txt#iwZo;pT0VQuTxyeVb{(!0ve
zPcH@rg<Y1Z%oxE+u))Sa89mp8cPXGEZY3>Bm_FsHIW#x)x9U?#ruU1Ibh~6fV2`T?
zfq(^dVCNbNx132el`dBP#QVn#xXI$JP&#Q3714qMEAb*NVb5JK+h^jGLrtGl<kOX$
zKTvwHKIoPHc*PnVC<O9obL>CJUxPoI=<PGE8}QVqEO-3SyBo+2^b$nH)M*g$tO0=%
z4+c@CQTtOHFE#D+-BA+r){nV@;KJ}n@OrUT#gV*l_P9_WDXl?chKot6waE3AP^NA}
zSXPNPpr_2{#FbIK%(b@R(?58I=1**nlG5q?7)K{^tdTAv-so(7uVf&EqWN|FMDYsd
zNfxa9UHw=}{4uzm1Fb?z=&RUB)z5Hx5I5x$KSrdLy0G4|hd>Kp#QNp9wpw&dWv~_D
zhdBZN;4SW8fSHm#bthLEkus7)C+ny`sI4Cy&R8=;y}A?+%xA8FmsQO@8Vn}AqnlIn
z$Ds<ZIv(VaR|bWwX8mGo$fH*<;a5~MgVY4q$N|&3{XYx5Xc&y<cFvw;$)S&UFHsR(
z>hKc2VV`d>iw9*OXIf<HaQ$p%AIPX`;Hpx@aB4EFe7SwiY%+2Vq|3%gXHaR0juu6(
zG#XCq8QJBl#6MEqISzuTHD-KmR?&3)Xk&gefWK~Jm8cP2CzehH$ql>z>Y!43t<<7?
zh(3CwyP~ud(}^l{mgJ6B@syK~W%QU&+L2>D&2QW2a}WlAk!{ya$rH(@zbI%NU@RCH
zmMpS@NwdH@#4K|<J3gik(FVUaX~jX)g)pzRmjuI^ZeFS#X5>?I8jL6|Ky;`iI8P^B
z_DYtT&{g3a5z(tue%QI<+tEdo3r_W(DNDeX=yfbD$dp@KeZvw%N;NhciZ#6XVNXQ^
zlFAY^XPdkno0bF08paF+UnZ)SJ^6OLV*PTxO?}|O0Pc&=&oO(Dl3r*`nxdcKZ8m*i
z0ONr+HYj;-qD1mnU*4{*U`K%CpZ5(t@2ukV*LqEjQ)FCAO+=KH=MsZh$(pLamBFvL
zO^dxD6S?amPmP{@NRrV{<SPAnQ93gmYA_oajnUI;Gnn5x-q3hW5L%VBqQd_1U}|-z
zm^p_^z)UYqT~Fe)Pv#Hu)8B;lsBYM|CXAQ**46dyE8m*=1CyivK}Ev>dAmUPK_B=F
z_8C|sI!MSp9y~GK-dt;x|LJzPBQwd|*PH!b_Goua3o0X(Q_05b(#l@}2#%x<y|*fC
zAqQm8h}M;tT-S1Y-Z5_mPi<I>=Rk*XGBj_+8}6DZ>VxO#c`wzPRg8<G%Yw-A0>(ov
zYwRneqsegIgXW)lPcyFoa@rD1Rb@L3vHY2&7KI#qG7}zM^tuEruvIm81_M{kz2|va
zmnRdE9*}&s*uDfcdq3B}+R;!=5IqjA=KuOZ_dj?v3YiHUIw??O^{BIN$5{Y>A?!Dz
z*5{*p9NRbN;{9A3mZbY$>t(h9=D7f&*-qp8NU~sLKXdS;WVm;NV>J6_M;@4qFecy_
zWe5z=Qey(><Q#pg$2h7o?HjX|Xt#XRxJu!uEB?hP)8rVhbgr_gk=RU`o_X}<A&FxS
z(`+I@8DWsGW2NOfag9q&<x0gSy(n~^ea0}KG9;swlFDVvzU6pAFj+Di0PajUwPWFO
zBrHxetJ4-ZK>fPNNy^=mWwBA_zel@DExb1|Y;P94tzb+mPkI(g_`26M>ws=~9vk1Q
z8QgpA*htUnzn10hSlLh}GPvY0f#HU(q-N~!#Rtd^e|}HF%Vja59jMb++PiaI6zWyG
zcUlTR5cMD?@+%>2+Vs6_Yu;r;dflqzp3B7`N{sM7H$>V~K`WSP>AxY&^)~tvc2=zD
z(jW(yu}W0-QkE_PJLm-Mi-2XHi9U@z=gs+^7HLh*9j5D)BYPK+9-~D9P#f#45AG<T
zdkza)om!MQH|;h4TDc$TYOudTpS4wB@ki|Z^!MisvYSB9HD(>_x|8x+8uE?;HyH*J
zSHB|SzHD8&(UOG|;qTpUtH=n8sQA?+@tCFr$C`X!E~>*hSlp>lX4rYgEK+h5OQxX|
z_Pdn%*O-Eg+|McPi9^OUUd992;FB}Y?$N&Nc^R+uSHDZ8%@W40X}0;EPMIyypPFwu
z^SvuFo(1T)jBgO%6irJPjaHZ!wd_?hx4Z1^#U{Ib`hDd4Z0*c>K~L4|Lr{L*!6I{r
zoOzm>RV3pHgu*bTbux!P?Tc5z<!=Xb?J6YiJ)q(|-Vxbz8p<yPdNoFrZ&Mh<*o!ND
z+0pPU&kEF~B9?d@+5U1zJar7$z2JEwr=wJ7;hlFt^KSC($t7;)k8sM%4WH;oA69Ww
z?<N^^8uiZG1IK-ReG+pkNFrq`OXpc7YDaXSby*l^W@v&nql={}d{Uy!oojuydJ(lB
zdx#o6n4f;*a3h|J^xoD8sbi)AsP96Mt2ef#4bI+J#Z}qvZ#l0X!v|i0TPh(3s;C+M
zmxJd@0n?6Yj7D=#PV>u+ti2;;m`36t?+4Q@<tqmUi2O{Bk*S3&Cv`g2@t2yPsxJF|
z6l>~BT!4BjUtyddN-Tq^k5vB6<<!RcPp5uk=WqdaEm&uP_E)}7AMT#Ub<0u`!FxE+
zTybF~%Ir_B_GX27`|Nq@1XAy;w+-3C58sXeuFJOrlbppONi%;|JFf2T>{rqY9WFzd
zdmlI5|NJ@fxhnaOSFBX(L-NmGPEXtCHjDn_wQN`Sxtzm4c*8@N?ir~6e5fsvfBj$Y
z<p2MVx0GFD{Zf7?M5QB_PWJBYN#$_RK!n<RH{OH?9TbAC|KOSIGU;_S&>YJHIDmMe
z0t$P%a{mjG088U~{W0+?`wD`@bZZowUPq>XccdCytuLt^v;|7#%yNu8ee<8!^#2Qb
z>m+o}H=k#zr|~b19X9#knM30bB`mw8je1xFqaq#|SNQ#h<g9x9&Nz(R^RgPlZ1wSy
z&$0=CgYmhFl(US9fAFqbeOtI!i^g2<KKJgy;&x?BsccN+MOw#<+D();@`khiA3SsS
zKV9V*kGYrq=M3E60SUOqw4cFbTpTW(cw3Rghlb8JVDH?CG;wZsmoD^pY=7}f^rY`z
z@ZU9O7xt%J=8=oq<zOp~qw@SByk5M8WkM^7<B|o}Ln959e)VT0-p;ZoIFt8id094R
zJqRQyL^*jwR3c2?YC3&8zB5}8Ywah>`_oulm!@TQq)2aUE07BcR#f!kmhO`^teNSk
zX<p>@1xY2agzodjFMLyj7@3-byaGLF5JCp`7}Oa;O74q9d{P=gX~p1KJZ#}A%43G8
zG1JItbDn14s!Vtq9$GpKzKy@vXxy=CDz6TydZ<%JaIbVSBf&rxz;tPwFoBkRDMW;L
zI<=-Pl?pIN6S(`$Q^CHipLCAz@j3=nFYt|;H>kl1*%So8AoE1&mpTea&JSPpo@@Ip
zAJeW#WRvl1Z;JHN2P4qMdCvVDKw{8E6ya=HV0hZ3$Ii{g5|dhx09*SQ3*$uyJIlof
zkX&=F<T~&B_dy~Zp~U(`uw)ptH#OZte|#aj<pZ@MbwapuTrmyBy&gDgZyj`pRA4Uc
zlD=9VT;41YWoI9U^*g+Pt?eC`Z{YoxDvTAYD*F!rMy~L`Wj*gS;;PC4?&@JhYd1*)
zM?84<YU66o^D9EB9~Ji&c%`mN>)SutUijle$o6Qx4v!j>Rtp-+yyedc=q9b&cz3|%
zYEeD*sDftzu7b2n0c{`I=so{P@_g}UbIKE9YQe{n9#6h)A$?+pJ}XBke%4VON4M-n
zsV`c;K7o}j(B|jv?6GTzs7gK89dGFZ5$iIwzuD6m%Jnjv^;Z3yLN>c!%r~4Oro<?y
zq^>KkNTE#}Edv@Nth6R?Ej{PHMsD9kZyYT*4*vE&UWdy~l$Uf7ZIpketZEF1<bKB^
zo|annI~E7gfqKV6SIr9Y-1~HQb*%-0VS2%`WqgM_vBj=BwSE&mSZqV2d3eN6*o0kV
zs=>R$#Y5ueByGG(OIFzA^`PBT?w*<rmj<gMu}HM!3nG6+7Pmj^Jy7S+Az45o)UUaw
z@(va9d<BzZn0hO=_3?+LVzy<Lkj@yrf7J@ufI7=_NMZLJyPhglJgDrbL}vTVYFQU_
z9`Bh=D(xH)ovp>#4ze+Da)0DAmturrZDeP)En;P4T~zcyKR^Ko)+P45rz&OzCVl7Z
zyH1^2%=fD%mxP`-qzQ5r_>;0Dv3?i{NUIQ`r9(haNi(O!CO3ahdU}S5-_jdu+r`_-
z;WscK+jW5KXXk{-@2V5&iV_4VNfolnM^wVoR#bI=L>E~XZCM^w`t6cDXG#9LR!5gG
z3)h;wjlvoZz{zxyi!`_H$<Ob!&R4R^RJZrhaE;Wa`;YoGtOIz51kHlbE3z-I#S;h{
z{QZGLhobJ@eWv_%x$_*6L%a<+oo$Xks2eE%s+C^KxHdOg=$&NQQcw4CbB`jXEnOH`
z>iqiEyI|9LaLW`}(-}bH=PEdL1`Lt)8fqlU=;oFG$n95ZHi4r^l8nnjwRvo9loj#n
z8K9Fpk|aO)PxDHE^>pZk3-hdyk|5bx2Yry63=GKu0IQx1-`mTWSk#@hPn)+Vc3zKP
zR+F3UZ|S6Z>zS(tvmc5JqbQ>YXqsvmfW14WQsz!I=xbJ1Uy?ThC!T)T-?-X)TOz6d
zJ%AFhpo+wWU1_A;{uy#C<0)xa%6=<SHRPMg?x8E=KlLu72AniEjPF+dma4PY?@Fd#
zDl0_vcf(E`s}41w*SGCL?;pH4BP9wZ=LrrHdp=IW0y4Z@S(g-Z-AXCF2xk5~nD#|x
ztSK0@a-H>8EUH6_!f4P5YBA)gR<9rUG^@enqmESASy9BL@IQE~wKHuvFMUZDLHg|{
z1M5vhLx&z}P$;`7ZBL#K27e1K-FH{a5vSqS;^6$XEpL`n=a{cmbYtgg?9%*{Mx^?!
zX4IV!`SRLwWdq+fq`0DRmU@Onk!QW<tzVCwJ-B~8*fwJ)p%%Z#i~$-hKtuw<Lo=z#
znT0Q%(G<c51vsnS^;A#R&<_qmvO>%cid1ad61Id(M%(=_0zSv?)VQvy&`t+LlZj!#
zN+Hj2U_9bJH)$7Nx-0w1r;3q=w2{-RfX^gEYuyr@pVo$&|CWw<mhnWBq|;nb*Q6d+
zlE_&u-L7T?s#>`}(l2pRapt5y3PtE7d6gJCjg*kFA8+daTyil=XL#=Uj{N-P)NRh}
zIL$Y}$%Rf-9m=vGT=85b+6Tn=q=up<A51~WxLBay&WPa?^SxQMoayroT6@G<AS0NP
z!{M+SEEik7W7iNVPDt7XQBm|2!stg248Y|=3SDSQ%jWr*c@rei>v1Oxu4fn~TA-xF
zLCN|pJ%cI;O4i3}VN@Z>h%E6{SKpx-1-~u8vTS11AbI?4$GcXlXsey%3?oY%Nficw
z6ua0q+BQr6P`h6F&B<L>lA?b*+qCytH(@CTm<(Ihv0V)KRKe*_tiGwrZBu(g+iI=k
z)}WzzY)wYHU-s$R;rgUe9~#Ugply_OFXxXzyfDjlpwMdFsi!;Hh7~KZ2AD0Q19)+S
zp?i`C+8FFEioK$d!fcS31)pv7-_$W0-8QL@UtCBremiWs_{{-g!!oqDEc*_;(I0>?
z!$Di4T(89f2|)G1CyHsO!!np3N#(2c<gybwbwDZ*JHk^(D&6L7iBj^fTX#tIhQs>l
z)eCEuFRvVqrx#0-nvT-0b%hGeb(lB@Gk(5}Sdz2c<bGS7HaOtHUG?Bw4u?}+eD8}F
z8Z|@k-v>Gn`QQpCV;;&WQtb=4w|0upjsptKY9Ed%p^xm9I93GxJ)Sha-p%eoN@u*g
zcu~OrvNln6>K{DKeZ32>7EG}eO%CxO;?&|+^59&2?oF$5fRbn3T19m!G!~G^3*>V5
zPVN}%Kiy&RWD8lds9vxNEwcEcn(3BC6RA<oyLtL&dG#KF++CT=6y>r5RIo@D8#D!a
z9|L9m7#&47i{=b!Df|{+o`mc&nlhPfIeCnS7D;R|22}Fv@GyoiVx)VE^wWI$j&_~g
z#v%L4(edGVw&=tcQYT0sN)sO~1y}<Z>YTJ!#$jqsVhS*kc_dkRM>vg(oyr2^A-;!y
zp$+H6t65nDsTn;~U+IsTpip3mqwr8MH=itV))%oGH!nI@6D&1Tge(^~r5sxlS!5cP
zUJ>Z;$GB0a&B10U(rP?XZ)<dnhqzI$(J|VY4pfMgFR%nNQwd&fG$G5m2Vr7bp%m-o
z&xv1SIFgW!Gd?!jMa3p=IZfCFRu5aAWP$XoA5dh7N>BUP=4S(3_FC`tGJaA5hG7Cb
zBQVjncC+1DeC9`~4OdAb87DREx+!klq<(ACm9Kcx&ygHZR&`wnSOK3Ql>6Mmys6@V
zZ>Nex(LtthlHiJx9&RdqkT>a;q$6<e!E6OCeMW!JhF`46{GNuqE>K;vlMO2&aUSnO
zE7yh60Yg$Bl5Xw!yeb#|6<xO5*>>yJcV768QZ)O&QIyIIETDT$6|>Q!hN47E7O!_T
zN_5CLB>NfE7~oTeMnCv;?#iD}4CAtbA2)XY{W&3D<6T@hb>7qJD0P1eTLI<0uwii%
z_!us;8U>~xHv+8&L}+<J#TyxI3H5iJ0_DfA12`%TThdr$U7DVuqIQo*^A$ld+9zsc
z4>)V7H%W-V%O!J69TOQ#`bsm4aSfJbbViB=^GxZyTCaG&rF2C7#`(7C$FF?+y6#95
zZhM$a@)N(k&~hL8!nBod`u+nl3T9ut0-$6c>1t4PE{`mC`1X%#m!CJPHQPT5Ouf(4
z>K|xW))=P2g6kwg5QDi0#io$tZgyLlZ$4xT4cW!KbiF=lBNyVCV_tSIY)>|tQkw?-
zyUgWRiynca2k<-&a(U`)K~3`Uyio{;UI*p42s79O#%&F?&B^&`!$S3H0sqs@<8iaY
zxz|FKQpjUsf~w}#%ifcu@(r&A0{n#9B$@hQ(Vl6mp+m&XW9a+W4YL)G)!|M)a~#@z
z!Q5QS;!WY~Mfi3JY!9<NY^9&>reYq){1@QLM*Q#J<XgkaQ^`99(0|qU;cw>t!F#X%
zw{-d{>yE7UFZj^?@BhV~L<;?9!=H<E=)dvV#-08JZo7l5{!cmUitPWvWVlN>RNh!Z
zNv2c4ca1*6SKE^xDmdzHI5w^7(qHhFx*h<y7R=w4fMlfQi!T99Z`~W6bv*Bli2mu+
z4yoKEp1&pCWmd1Sy0Gri$!k~Ip&48p{9Q^&pz}~?Eiy(>WKZj^Wb6*n4`pxsnDS@E
zC;;0NtGzTD7+OE$_6TezW`I%C#UmhNPc~vIoGr{hQEYJ@cx~WjR1wXz<M#m@+~ZQ;
zt&B+(MrCo8vxo_&^x)gw1w?w$NNm6$&0Je+M%s3O0ehDTzFQcFhA!J+I{BqRz96Hk
z(^Q{(TC4^veSF@w?usP1t|WI^Pkw=uTMjTJX=f_~>ljPl6nzY!TI)g5@@V(~l*8P3
z(k38=3AwN&at5ylNS8YVwxTx?7gF$1%s6RNKg8G08$T^(=uiP9c?|aImc%pKq={H!
zqW-Pn-eIc~yoDC~MGTHbBRQY1qBz4JGX*sK?agiwmr^!`K-SZ2!vx}zEKKAf(aTiA
z2%Rz^bwZV5_>B>umbS^%p`lxF!9N{0LiNj8>)({zJiL}1hF@RxB)$&)^+7eLk8f9t
zbiGl4YCWAzNc!+$cC7A$;0K}P1EUz95C<r3Pe|+Ub~Vi0m6uvD!eDHyq4C-1(P174
zpQRX$DEpX_oYMPrbY<Yp0EgK0H}f*onMUUYF2L%u=7&WxOYIZt^7UWazbZMjT^O0=
zyP!?+z#}+3%`V!L);wxH^;b~G)7&RvOi5e2fge6lc_tBPI{j}s9dcY@p&&dmyK_TW
z)sU-G_IP8qshf#qI#}V9HJUUvwLhu0ZS#?g{BBu%$APq=g{a+a;{NqiswHCtY1bZL
zB&^rD^IOBm9yRYQY@*zQ3d|hmm_VI&+((<nT#ht)dfeARten5gS6cS-X~x+DhwS>+
zx{u$th6nt<SgB{ax&wj>);rKG&70G_!8dY0_*7GxtXX?^d~@o+JQi<w)(D7q=m%X^
zsl{6&rMA5*KbaeQ1A(!pR+dC#iBz5Ue|Ds&6rL>%cpmgOyn;8$inl?Qz1ow?I7myB
zhPgNZi!y#&(PfrT-cHi_HebbB1iD5~RP!8)Gx4j(uW-W5KL!T+4pUCYY@a9c(NiU%
z<&XfN_D)y-O4hGF;F9#tL@Guk=ZVfn7GF@~`Ke5kO<-ZB(#-6b8S$ipA{9Xg6-9O1
z!|N{3e9#J_3=ycMbP?<l;xeLFZicd@fD?3M(%~Q&NANMLiYqZ2%Ua-rL>8%1r*=Vt
z9WEd9u|l!1R7^BEO|FlJEOLiX)AWT1`UNoqP*2aiL#igIXo@D<0-y@kk<k+0t-Vg3
zs7TQ!;_++y`)IX-(_CqWPRui#05F*8v*zq}IA0jp*&9Ow3c?1yA6h;<+<H;8*C6^t
zrBA~}zjB7Ht}9DnK@Uvz@UnuCF3HlqtB$Lhb#<QBMLL0@<gs*CQsDjC<e6|I)y#<Q
zw_1vhg2IJf{=sxzp`HTw`jXzmHHxs)c^+83m>6hdTs_aJme`a`;<E;$7G&0e8*^KA
z{AKL+_-4)>9b}-h-fI5r>*U4X^Q7Z<WM-bawgGZ~{j#<=aq{QbR{z`*AFdSI)bWG1
zG2f{r4z9Q?+oV$aVlm2hA1kx!x|`+SvFL%>&q|LezpbeE`hMLdB#fjqDsn8Zbsy7v
zo7m6gBBI;ybVVmyQNK-FBF?dL&@$4!4obW@wYa8Iyk3-5;cOdzP~&>^3cgXvh>IsX
z6uV3aH_L*6V2(`DZO{(peiJzN@Zw_3xCUt=4GEE?#3s#5|I{7y)5c`IHdq5%X!}9n
zhI6=SN`c*9O;41u$py>UAd~zW3eKt$WYt>XWJfa1$K?#`N<x^^Sv}cX8ZAw6X|)I~
zkEto0*yswHWsT`p1$Q3B8T;SA>D$$c!^f66`)szy6l)mxk!}fJCEir?``*OQx<Z!x
z@_Lgfe!fk5l2E-Nip7}rX4%H^snI}o%T?#nWoMG9g0>NH#bb;1r&&$mNd>4NS0UB>
zFY5l}(mrVh;qGi?6n9ltveL=v9xe`P+%orgnEASEyi2kP#5o|7=vij%p+qBR|6mNz
zgoK644|TtKQ!8Bvf*wd}w9>^ZL$Q+?CZg~z;$nW9AC&q}5J?}fIxVUSrptVk5r*ua
zT~8Yt0tE;E2(MmKR-8W?Dcm(e&HwRAB$$|1hlA|hxR8hJSo{m(*;zR0>MYJIQgSL|
z=K<!P1$7{K%7Doj^w?hEGci?`i%lnZQ-X>b)Tv6C^2e2^>O{d!3247Lv^yuOinewZ
zg*x}5tGPO`-Z>vn*?zi=mK*kF!VudRe#cg7Z)^5k8Gc8>c0f^o3Dw851cD;VJj&}U
zj_86OzRcqjo7>}ZMKc)q9j{DyXc=E;y+zr0{$?G}g#q4vTIqY0A{$sxmv~6?W2!dp
z&Bl}F@$=dG(q5!;;~b|kL~#s~`$(pfrZm}=ez++M|8S#9+J9;^onlWNUQfX4Obm{E
zLC$7f@XgR*r^HL@8g5Uz+HW}Yz-!H$JRE<Whx+vSUYY+?R4oa&)rpl;D5LiM1Zfu+
zn;NSf!MFmCqT-m3d$GH9w*yhfpJIOLE0@$Cb4f0j#W6{)2Xgn&2aF-&C8^xtF=BN$
zxX+zT)6>#fmRf?JE&*CKC+3h0jj(&GWcZGA7kgQ|^fh^S<81sqb|p$5m>C^hZnDDb
z&Zdp()&0NbS4lXsof2<cl1wh1!_y9`qoSNKhX9=?Yh{lq1ow;`ZR|E^vTVHMK%Tox
zh9y9#3h!J>7pVP<Q<4Se7wP<+OK>LseL|TjUMIPzXPe+f!4IDz!#oG%_^xEzkvnu7
zUT~^4U$m`996B_qV6=p@>`8CAY#Pjp`OAqsDl#CoNRJ~j@-sgN>b)=g3-6CV4h!%z
z)(;w)-M)-!4K0sp&BD{!`2JAxEnYV=5IeF07{n1C!W$Kq`RDk(ZYN03SjMK~(MSs?
zBt?ZEli4<%uk$6N&O@sVmyw9vP9>Mbb5UA;Djgaa%Y&bU6|VNc>u{vS++hQ5Xn3Ha
z?aDu9A-xC^?`&Cr0UOfSq3sp;3%Gh-Tky&j`Z@V!z0iDPT9yd0y78$2Ih`V`m-5B2
z2k6cn;UL=IT``3e47!4>o=LGK>o2MMNLfE;RYM)9Ry2wia*)y>#_)D~kNbqJ>Rlze
zJW_2s?;z1j&{@~utFlx&=$uEEy&NB5*dHI0_b(l+m+o)8p3o`>+7}s8PBm@q&gD|5
z$pF|w`qxmUUprW}7OWLhiHLWf(_HfmwyH|`P}-CB!O1l~p^*>Mkl~m*GFt0<DOr!#
zvZ3dm`4LI8V}aWr&}E#TRv*3074PhPHvB$a^monm37^p~ubG0wY|@#tKjrfEsH?yL
z9%Z!uB;^{vtjRxkOHx}IX+hC1RZ(^FO$+>xHJ*ApYI~W@M=Zr*#}9JowmrreXWHho
zSHG_p6L>7(<X7f~k@6LupU1D$wRg{W`xDLiMzh|Tvzl)wemR%-^-GS6gRdvF>`*(m
zq)lKhE%dF=#ZH#6);uqAYDX|e*OnJYvCKRkm0Ex8cV`}=?%L)#8ap$OUx*ZoecH!q
zII_sl>!>U2;Vu(gI56G~=-Bs-(l4odnOqc(2BU-VJ5tw+v$#qWx>DmP2jsITA@PQF
z8kR9TRO58xfnO}xm5;{hCaI+w3bwqZ+RxeX)LHPr(S&%bRfqH@<J&5Y-!-5|kamv`
zd|YqFsd=HQoZb@4Fm)naXi97LK1PXw)N;}J>~I%S0ub40E0b}Y?qRmUSQ!*>q1!h?
z-`^!FXTwBha+i3njUh`1!mO9G4qsiQ%$+4!Fhid=Cy<<kYz)$_wAqz2>oaBguXoz@
zgzOK2o4xhbq_w<F14cW+Uo9Si$sh_#xW<Tk8~Q)+H&4%7nWsMgR-S^ZEnD->rfAMp
z`V<-LgM{d~xD^x;N_jvq!taji2~n4cdV!|?Z(NzOfHlp7k2=2EOJd1+b#~nQk`2AN
z4R+s^oO{>I`{-9piQQ=&0rJMdhOcK2e_q&>oE0{W`IPgrvqm0})$(JMhB@p?xVw-c
zA0EOkX4c{iyc`3CC&onGJ}DnW?r8BcP1Ln|w{)C(8UmaE00Zybje4rA-}AMoGJ0e1
zLqkid#rlyOrCHHTM?U9ZmAB0nmY?<`4;3&oOdJZq((n8*?37<&^9-u$#YO`@j__GW
zSYExE2B7)d#Nm7%>uJO~H495Fs*AdMFT_a4bf4KipjG$P`}Q60W>}KvP4$K>bD=Dj
zw1ia+r=nfg9x+_VqxaT_KJe*{xAI{vW9kZkcHn$~9pR4v<v*?r<e51*zeStzom_BY
z&O{r2E`e`w!BpsW7XL{B-FJn;iLxl#Rc*oApNB*6;EzgBqd9ne1c!CS6RU=TLd6z4
ziSRInk74V{!!)mV<PBBcT3ewuZ%N%E$)xG}Ko-+5H<DrYyd$hc`Hx?|3M}XZiIoJJ
z`c~)LioG9oZ%@sZyk(%TT&p{(&fG;ZgEwm+MyoL%0v_2DMeMIP%j&r$1>?g3;Ld-Q
zmmj~p`}K{zDy{$P2yF3vdHo8yHZ$>el&{SE{m~Bdq}e}s!bnT$|F6KbhB_^3u9=Es
z^m-}w<Fg+WKScfD<@L=ZvjG!wax1)AGO8&a_F*ot`?CA?eF#?TMJjOK<A=RX+N>y-
zVe?7`u6y&fpCZ(E(&_I|?1{mzu-T*1(cA22>)13%OO8#$-<}hx;n#N_Swx5Wp|s2#
zYNBFxci?SK>4Q-YEof2Z(W8MykOUiRm0F$4-t_55yN>7<_nD_(zH?u{vRJHF%?4H*
zjG22&#(Ty~iM}c6;cX$Fv=C*Cd5}Vv4v!g6%7hMZapN*HA|LfLcouvmbBvIjn##*a
z(Y6YjYFRj&<yBATBcYtT`-_uKaT=>17RKf7R@uV=JdUK0?<@q6wn}}`Y=7~9)GD8M
zF7*B?ntS+TlI+{mVmufELC9v#9o$RM3DJLOF7((K$@n+kbbJ0ejy%=Q&R8&|HgF>P
zVuweX>Sv*eGqHckVO!In;=G;-I1|iXV#z8!gm$A+e~4}&RMQ@Ry7!&HY5^u}cb1$3
zE$l8!h<>yv2?AL`bSU!XP$Kw+d!8XKF&q|!f|Q}FbR=*amU0&&MOA-9KHeQ9P;^k&
z6j~|uZ7<8|u$I1K9_reK7`iyTV)$kF)dzLIN>nU6-~cmIFUh5uI(WRGToR>vrSHa}
zV)a5%F-9>mCV99fKmAA6!usy#^zFup4yy(K$6#j`?{b{YMJ5pJHTvPJs$UYBhqfnv
zPrG%Yg$4eLbL!G%Ut7{6Ip0fx_Zhx_G`R@_d$zh7k+{|U-Rs4?H)jsLF3QooUwA}$
z*Ym~pr_remAMRT(YT%rZVQchX{dz<v3H~?s+KRd39PjE&tgl0$WNn328HCDC^V6uZ
zx)#@aK$2o=UUKL|!n0;$cxg!k6pGomoVw`aM=;d(gxi?wW10+fue@UAIam<)h8f<6
zD^0je6}Un$1fS8f7AJon;(&bl`s=no&w6SdxWeBxi+fGdEuPd;43N__1IE|5IMKRy
zLby=C7g2ACR=v8OaWD4yT#FYA&=dNI1B?Q3uuk)z3|+-WYNQwOkN_DhW*Vwx764BH
zyGTeOGxd}gZY*bdl}1ih)mi@nx~Lxtw+Xm@mZUinKa`eF_i?#$3@PUAGWcEQrebCe
z1;Mo9H-fe5dD;9*EQ4Iv&&oG~FD|v3JD^*Vt9`_Ovuuk*{=}9dUl(+eBGx+?Zna0I
z#tx35jdy5@{59K5d*?=Ur$^pKQzRLkJ{YRPy{Naqpceo2V#+9ET5-i!EN~-YrHHeF
zHKSXf!TIay19}`W6nqcVzX<BQ!#sc9BZ<hEqRTN_pl@!$vP(ZUIkey%ppug0O0oi{
zw5C=T92?}#Wc;$9u75gWJCsstvzu1l;^v>VnH@usHU}pH;|(S_D0Ugak|a2L4%Bq=
zq@ZizYy3xn9lOqanO_e5yG`at=JW5y&;tKnF|sKi5WAHo6Tr@1=100_Al8fl#0j+X
zod6@M6)UobGFH|4ZDev*@XoW*F{7KqFxBty$8%wywa<K?<60!yONmX5PS7F-kg=qy
z4>AVJh~yc|P3$?CddI+W-cNt~1ofl*WG2HC>IQsJRxdIbSl-in8g|6xd5>lJ#xb#6
ze|OBP{PBRlPRpkrnLe=a$LXtMLnwM2f&0b7v-N0ri7oA>J#FW?!Y8UaE$!V5Bj1#d
zDBE<Nghd+qjGj4p>#;Lmsy%XohZ7arXj@i!hEO6JHdjq0mC4qGy?A#n0APp`H3HP~
ztNPlW&w@C`x&Uj!@@(O1k*JlvEzyptb_u!XTj8ggl?M-V=o9Gbe2SZeQ(bt~TgR(5
zC5Dy6Bw14ZdpJXwEVe|~#Af%#vXchO>S;RLo?=!wWvx+YdT_(eoTP?s{;KPmbV!d|
zUDj40V^JDWuT+x(pRlKWx!~-QwTZSLIX|M6@x^Xjv9$A;7sR=TGqR`USD?&MoNV$5
zG+=Bsd-~m;s*nbiAFg+J5T2+tgWOb3u>U#tWoSp08|O{P#!DYVo@Wa%w`IAQg3yMz
z>smD8r+*k$P5>}9SBkp}#o83_xCq@FqJNIfxX7@i;}bn4MiE<hTIn42ICi#G<|(M|
z>0u3}B(h}8mUYInP%@D2>x`|jHFiQ;Z>|${sEXPYp4}9^_@hIRU|PC~AJZd$0{rWl
z^7+8{$+745TNaRJyzGs4K@JVtvz3Q!pM>{gQ4+iWbA{KA$s`Q-E_SgW!S9X&xf&;X
zYywub{y=^|jdrPAjOQBQi*Ea(*~1_4?qwRavHh1(F}$z1RDX7#jPLfbL5|cXc9$n(
zWP7Z&EjrF8#A#oO+>Nk-yNNC&uhCMcidMgdB!0Ksk!Omsjo<0ILw!z7tPyEZ@!WS1
zqf(j9K9haXjPwR6`$rS`D`tgO*6mRTwV>jnW1XNUymgjJ2F*x1oPkZ)SP)?FeW3UH
zUoD3A*6+x+2S0?aX+lO1$z(qm9~$B|7+o}@N|ZhmJM)XEZW+n1SUUUMsI2@R(ny#^
z*>vS5CDH^5h(}sK_S&y7ts{K8S%EU3#<SX0P(6xyNJtzHo&BNOYEpW!)OQ<HJ8;;@
z;SwBEGrl^%Q@(fyL31DMc5_AbMz30N^ZmZLS{$}=J(kw%IVv=1{^|@i59!GMER6x+
zzb=tj=^mUkD_43EBo?5K<EZ!Fa3e3d?pvdwH09O<aws3OpHGy_9o7@R%z&kfj3NAv
zwPgQXrAo!q8T#2qV3@STGKN1|$}~UGIGAZQJW*-yKcp7xAX%gZ+=*0-5gmo+G*3o)
zf6GG@leUc?qbeA%*3XQ;!=^Hudq46?E@&*Udl;Y-XosC>;!AjhURXB1?lV8;;C@G!
zL15!7BaiR(qR7fQmHT+!%)U>$?>TIkuhQ-F@wQ_9#39$O(dL_<TPVM+l`r~bb3Pvh
z<7J{qg=VvytLFWAn?EEahomlt8{y{ae9fY1pJaF{t$goT21AGi{MgCb)^7eFzcGJ&
zKYmmBigvr-`f(P3P*#mW`1X9&J)N-^5veF8;<n|@cmx>on<VJH>#=m9J^qYq?i{r0
zndw2oHPO`#bUb#v`E%$&XQUb|X&sdaTzz0KL#^$91ottL{X6M88QxsD$HXv|VP*xz
zmrO$VWict`kQG?aW`kG-Q`2d|i#LWRj23-cm9uc^cBaS5G#BAXuf$%R>OIZmlIeca
zd4V*FB<NbzS@}&LY)fZLxfnM>LS)2nj}WM%hj-j(&1cx(=yu`D(MbF(SnQ@}Gwb=C
zG=ouMxq(mf8msbgeeHHTZ_w7MpVKQ>$31VANc##lNGcx@AT%cbVKil!&C{j9VaJdB
zLOo%y!sEa%F|*<6yzkY^qMZy)U5QzBeEB+9i|aMz&y@aOKcMBjnnG^IYHvy+nejwM
zS+F1WF7|xxrfS%yv6M>zU^bDliId5e)O+7h-wnem?DZEka(>Tk2eci~fPZD#KSJO7
zSna{g*Jxw5TFmWwMlMWi3VItwem-F&hAo`GCU}AXm1C-%#;$91`6#Fu{L^L<dAO+2
zYrEm1EdIr_kQqVr4;PhHuoAn-yG9VLapR<!w1&?_&pXQ@eacJ)BJh$4SYc~QHQ1%P
z+;j(Pe=#-`@aqiZfBudh&gE=vG|6q8CQOWd-feoBTGQ45@+-^HFLO(aa%(!Pf5jYe
zs#A2A1Hi)z)G60%2NiF94<0z?rLZ|-!LOTnrEhFDe4l2ng)rr1%~5%EaMVHR)Gq_P
zgfxS7_U!N29%$S0lO!^~Ww=p0HmI&?REX|gJ;r>1(C;uS@fS_LIGh74vNy;rgZgb{
z#prV;J%roIM$|X7l#~}@n{G1_jC_XA${Ydwfp6uMb2K$iUkd9o7^~v$nN1X)G(J@Y
z$@+69XxX`hM}y)elk&$hdoOJU?p6}#2gD9kTt3Qe_{LLddIP9%A9gJ8ez%q|1x}YU
z6*XL?p81%k-SHLd<OU$bk3gImI&5Z@A|>N)o0*V^VM)`a9{c)^;X=LB7PHzWH>APD
zVvv8)=o-_zh(WWaVuA8B^&Qe)WjmS8?d83g&9XaU+EsDbcJ-E$4|`#ETnhq;K951V
z2#)WV<D-kYI51US->I?b<$5hMSgjjls*R}n^(K8#0OeWlii+qD@$}8i`32usyH`GQ
z?OoI2MoYZuBqGXlGpRk<#;icH>nxi%{NlWIfSb4D^92qG>0D#u+Fkzuaz*Ft`zPq1
z?!qk1e8E$ioOTuS-IYys4G)}jJ=GFa$zu@234R<Ft`66S=QX^x!n#T^*uv}<z{67l
zB1R$cd-tXWWO_j?zxv1+dX`78LnpB!?X3_~YbxH$r&Kp2Y=qwDloPq0k9JvN_IN7T
zV5&koa&kq}JbVRkMd8@N-oNeIj>WmN4*PQ|PL?bj{5n=!^#qq1ZX6CzK(HP94SB9-
z55Nk*2OQmV*5#FVQ!VBD)4v-vdb5J&P+^YBwV7eYW+aMXaIqwVNFnj0T)blgGJj+1
zua)QrLzon8`|3d1-oYBItGFtr_NC$E45s-t;aGYh;G6e{*93Rl0!k0?lS5*5>OcBl
zFC^}1{(0dl_3wid<*Kz`)W)vO)`~f*Uno&L=jSb?BAy`B#SbxD17E6JElx={wu-=K
z3S}ZbCq9WiZj1tJA4_;i(lYU<RBdCuz^MhaZQ}j)Rip0p#D?7F`m6DxpFQW!e?JXC
z9&-W+@$DQRc1)cV|2sBa?IJuly-1`rU4oJ}oeLLBn}+gkn9)C>x1-^@Tb_IA_W<`H
z3DSHcb+Q6&2lioK&p}hn_4(3m!LSR)gjIGf0DA+H!&xwk0QmeXVPF(Zt)r8a|DOJ{
zhbi7>b}e*q{S9Bn<uvR^%vCoHvcDR(Nj#?TP~{?m0x6wlMGGDB(p~+j%-(9)L?K!y
z$Hv=v9F|m1E`4<iI&!JBgY>d!@Pf6+>b@#Y7<z%nY!8K6U3Xy1*Em`Tg&vZCi!ynz
zl9n1Dha@!`JIiM_*8zRP=|)a5dXfw{2a^*j8n=c6*r}6*d_x{ch&D9tVr2#`_7cH=
z91gC8>5+_YTl$F>aY?x}p%S4F$(gF0NH>7gV)3p%@bFJne6DW}Z^{X?BlavQl!*O!
z!r5uq(PV6O7nCNa7kLiQ{<7|Hui&kXs;*2=`m&NbDQevd>bTUTl);-~q5~j3p;Jb1
zCv7to!;U3bO3gIx<c<K8(u8box)16+{duzb<?(@<dMl$l(UTE8kTZ8<8&aLv^sV>n
zqCQ+F0~b*__tQzqSY-R>(XkUVf9U~@?<JVT7fDsrDeEt4{%z;%0nwMsv&7x<_n&bU
z+5cJs!#-WQxmG(j`tp6lSo{AmYb(O}Q{~_1bRT9c7^u?6xY~}+E8ocw6S2h99EV5V
z_yTez3GIu1Ck9>)iQ3nEq=V5Ob*wN3h%LBj-ah)BkU*||LsBS8=E)l4U$*-nwiy4L
zD~)A-{_g{Ir7iz$ZOmrw4kv6dSmY@^<StS>0F)WiG18%&1u>>R?5)lTA-E(->`K_}
z?}W?}zsiakz}$=6G^`x^`EEHU24!z{%Nuz}^cyRb`tSvB+5`{p)8Ek$ZAAo5fqB8y
z`~NaMCG*hrVPEeOD*yDGzXD8|?%SmC9z286U@lHVdYuh}*fm!Q?4$pNjVzNICSH4X
zxKqyR*2E}VurJ<j$j4R)5X{(~x&FkeEKxz+$?&yvNTJ6+wSeZc44YtVN|&1Rq*SJk
zvkC9eM0#s*K6gTd?tb6cm_h9TOK}_u|Hd%ybA9&bp0q#W=bKr|Y4m)&1u!S>d(!hl
z6`Tw(Ls$JTm150-jh3Qw0xwKoYrwXrsB7{SVPWYsIkYBw=f5AXVgdq{-fk*e3qPyf
zb65)tU3LtLOWZ0xB6pe=FTN<8!kNTb91lOA+ngS$FDRHUA>(W;DV)rn%9zP?MU>OM
zoT1|AoF+wiH`^;$g}WV<Cx?P|B_DiRi#Z!<xpciT7_UW(`i#_2Q5B!E4%bPxebrrQ
zfoMb27`94lE*7d&_e|2pZBnS_&mOG;p9lI06-H*$s&lXh^ojBu2F%PhzzZw%P{G*n
zUYDezLHRRhu<HFMD0bM8I#X4p_(J9Au8)uCflJe3bMU-)<CB>p2HVK+V}Si2Hxbj*
zOtb7>PKNHjR~?0Jy>(}|jJ5q4keiph13cy5F=%(uCX5{mLEK#^;}z=DKz&|XhJDjq
zYq5L&vEWa<jVmmbv?t;>ys1q;{NBgospE>|-eK)o{hazC*R}Dca=7F~@nwqpAWs99
z&O6KR8NU#KC~A~yPOm_qTU~}?+y=1qQ_x)HC29G@Wt`JKN08ARXuJ1Va*@TOJY`=5
zfqVgcn)g#sm$a?p)XZmY9B3ykbQt&Ik`EYT;l@hbzoZivMsrBOWs7%8vpY5mF9ljy
z`(OWqhy5jJv`Y1@$;Xs)giQge4UT;(tS#r84MXD@1)(43xP1{P`q8UO1t}tDMHvoU
zz<p!j9fjl4axM9WIp3R3d51v31A3-Om~t|2S0K>*9Tx|y$s#c=1MFtTEi2vgV+BuR
z>-rpG^nHNznC~Eo?sg`pm&dK9-7g{;LQ9kRozo&(Fl0Ud(tKsDNYgRxJ%odH+{?lu
z0ZF#ImVjvt5FlEu5Z&`qwEWZ^h_O3{c>4QX5U-j!YIW8_?_U-3Qt|7U)@AZl>E2E$
z^=C?m87u?L`T<Z*-{+^_a_VW~a~<n!oo>zHv1M<DTKb)}m!`RZBA1Jx@AhhZzvGIt
zrzS_y_5haSfr~o0#2}4uSaX?7-J)O)!8rdrbD6*ruje4JV4oZ&gy*#YmHs*3=yzMf
z8!S%gxct}>2z%iD>=C5PD`nQt>ua(1ZN6{(!nP+=n}bvWQpw<MONhn6rgh`>OE|0@
zcqhdo=m7JN<X6$_6x8qL@Er=qs#DU;y13j$uc?<OnCu51HY~GOtnRrZn=aKMp5<#<
z7w1!U_4Ibs-B4w9Z+DqoLj0WiAO5pnX7WKzuiYE&(+!^{TGw$)tD0C$Jo}K28>eM9
z2p$?CryzH(z=^V9W=g-@f}`(tir#u9W>rli&gI?|>ln2kzNvjAXYm^oceKG!w0Zm3
zl_{&u3W50=+Yx39goF~-r}WL1Xn&rWJCv~a!real?IAsk!|qpSfB%Ek649Y^=dp`0
z#n7xU_J|}J)LjcJNXzTAyuxOq$x@>fxU%{>k)_A;Y{S<#$1y?gT$%}|7iX~7{^#md
z$jDotIk``9tLA3Rrrt@rBli(f2pvTIb*8=)i&PV2&iTS9wS@2=Jb%&eVv%*~6bF3Y
zn*o$&P{~fOUYN;gZg90MGCZ%rrar#V+`MI;54vssxNxkH{;_wh71Z>&3f7#Q;3uO%
zOJiSjVRU_UiOeA$hFtIsYRAMGS%<Pe3+`~<!=K7?p)KbKL`#h;Xk%ZEffZPoc^wDl
zRFj%iNouWm_vF<<ulpYXR=V$Y3}_~NjH?$&YFk}?)|#0m3!bIonl#mYl&+WrfNY^U
zr>cZ*u7k#JrR}A%BlSE+#Ud<W?1U>-Y)uGN@eoxZH93|<4!GyOY#8Dav(+(txhrpm
z)n8p!lNg`f`HfRVCD_51%l8@Hhm;L&AmcSZ`qyw%S#V<FYCJLUq<sG?Zj=i&8_I2m
zlieXxZ64!Ig8Z?2->9VaW^UC2kIXjGnW6N3&5y#jhkxcCcTFVa4L(=288C@EyxJ6h
z7V39lXUtu;jXcA(`J6401WoNRy~EG!u`ii>Q@MC0(ob{!82K%QK%Mv17T8EYfl%Va
zvrLvCe`AU79#Wuu|Cj_cFW-mKW4`$TK5rjwZ750yJlbyC3k;V}Zn+=O?(%)6tdrcR
zj}N3lDuEQMsQ~vc3s3gZluVV-@zcvN^Ti{H7JHxgC%{%3v{cp{pR{foI2^>76|C{A
z5&FjXhA_6t@wLS9O2zb$Zt`9}Q}!Uc@uTlQ_$t{~Zxo|X&iCMZ%?V<4BsY?L79l~m
zBHk|T8Pi><8CCynhdT5^#*jjNxIxX*R%;SFo=)x9^#?`EZN0zI_M*w=8_H_WKEZld
ze&4uZ*2RMUYclY0m6X=xhLf)367624Z{2tQw{5qfyOVtd+E=z7n1lHX`00re>YP!~
z&0Q!t?8u(2ib<mKIRxE>h!$ir=Vu!#;f#kH@UK89i@eCVDs)m2f%{jom)*l(mt9SV
zo}?BJMpzoFB{Gv6ezdi#`r>)Fp}M)E7MH!1?MH#PzwvFVhYr;2q|wkiFR4l3)>eP3
zlYg>&N>kpnE4|PQh!tC1D?>Rgs1qjmEyK#Sx!vCvje{xCn=K8$t%49x+s&oq%9hql
z&(w(^1nwGrdNZF=_%bD7SCM}_!04)FJ_w_BEt)Mzr#KzW*LJ>YUY@Q?o!6W)0PN$>
z$UC0Z-zty?dR$F}ASyXPWf?FIbs>tP1rz#m4$hGMlc_IT)Ww_}io}*o^nINTIp5|;
z`RaWN76&R?F*yiL<%tGgL?K^>4|5=gq_d#;g03~vl#pgU+jMb=kavpPz*wQ*qt2-A
z;&n<_O_6g`DIX?x?ataz%a(l|lQ7S#&su!c*cP`8kcF>G-F_ciL1@8OV&2O*x_y$J
z7zOCN$M9A@Zs;(TJL~-EnGJiyFVR-=V+{csSQ(_r&-jjBgdz~*6#|%&EDwN2%xP)o
z-m<C-tdMu5snq`>Nu&FL%w^!C4QqG-DK}W-`NB3;y4l?U4FKX(s2Ghk_q_EQ>>GY_
zGBmTv+XhWUee>>58jn%>n!O4hsgB$F!_8D!F~_zrV>6it_J<Y`yMONgdp$iguC8Id
zKg5sGxsN>0`D0W(9m!eCHc?mF>=sX2AM$eJsbDXo|0Btb(7UK3q#bxv=`dFyus6(c
z(#^#PQX_ZrD7PW&OP-o5$FkM4(`A}Em>=<5aH`x5O-J8&#ig>_@N+W-6PBnw82l?b
zx$RwkxPzNQSIy~6vR_yQ?zgPxc9cl_U(QQ{M7QV6zwkEx5|t___~_cObAcAQsm9GC
z(A;-lhMf14nF9m=sfn>r1Bj=PxB>MmiLysR<R|3!)2U!_Ms7hCZVCQB3|$O4AgyjP
z02_|=v}YrkcgufdPfsrWkD(ix^!Fhpe60TJFiZhjCMDU3q$y&J@4eRs<})Q?T$jB+
zn)Vw)Ibv)@mSy-XweD`X-Y|dVT|lS9J7wE(b+|&>3vYY-EyGT{d&AM#kMm3Un@)@g
zCUplr3s=R?5cVS9dqs?TFs+bVs`4e53TbI=XM@c3<HU&f`mOul=?VbeZ?{u1+!!g_
zhyOB|UoXCEw7njG^(bTLZZU-Gv1{2=KBEDnE70N_4WM)9EzM)*<BC_9*6g~TNZq-^
z?Y0H`D1MH0fnV-06`8v(cG9b3%R*#@w~bg<n%TN$!vtTsjg&V~qNEJO`NRKD4*>jA
z>EEWloa@U&=rVProh+u8k^cv8?;X?x+phb9fCvgI0t$pCok)>h0#c*|q=hC4MWvU}
zTPRBJodl%U(0d6TDFV_Z1duAd7wH1(d-APsf9reK+WYJ?XHJ>PA9)yNGLr=E=f3aj
zx_+SEgD-E`E1T#L_gMmRA%0eqUBNv~BDpO44hJYr4eU+{|BQOI=6ux0ZQDjivH36X
zLUaQMkLpplewRh*%j7Tj)MbY%r$f%Bhex*ECb_|m>JQh%sH!40fV*G^F}0*d8lV@)
zYsqDTZTDQ(FJB)Jd(oMUZSJ`G*$yKH6tZ+<gyt22{b1Hy@K%yb6wbCXVfGm$J&}He
z$4()?WEJEYG~y-x73~f$Mpz`b7bI1j8>*rSzbFqo8rrv)NChd}&QQ%+I-W~Nl^Aj^
zXXQwcXBgu0S0~6MfOu=T7ezMN&a>Y*h^xI?RUfORi}-fzrMye80C_$h!Nq?5hD?K-
z5@9>5QS@z+EZRLCJBJ4;ytWOaQk&HU5>n)GgL#ZNzyv6laRMOyaP6K<p7htMdU~(I
zxXl}vf(G%lF)}p<RUK_EgbI7MB+Vp`oZQFR*hXZLu%U1I8-aYi67zzEgrd_{JvFaz
zSypyyBGmiBeeCoZ=j!FJil?Lq?*oxt+Bjs}TAmHhYxd=!=kepZt=jaljBlcgMAp>-
zT&5lor929mi{p<n2@<Fh2LcEPfKLD6e7pVVzigsAm_7fANHyU5d$aj(8p*SMJBEhw
zmcIy)zlS1inhqbFgHtx!LRm(eD}@f8VsA8)HjkYUl%0Cr4DCIFax6#APmLNn4gLvO
zJ%T$bwy{UxR3|o6O(Mx`BME3T4dnz;L3n9z;2?mPwT`wROYa6VYj`*KPD}&XbG@#Z
zO#tx(p0!1-KuMF3*tS~Szf73C5?m`n_DY5|K5qgmGDz50-0>65{$q(PU{v``OEt@$
zoa8KTIQ`(rojhWW{;f{Da_*YFf<h*7fW+Zp;+A*ev{abepTDuw>LU~@OPd~`@)XI{
z!sHo4^lc6`6=3sYa|xM;Mf(Xt;1@%mroE@qDuRh&kneXUIR?O+$Y$yn#z3Z;u43;`
zI~7MG->-rHaR2`6z_TQ9Z7+Q){wL}mKH>j7ct!t7ANw_mM+elGGwF%3m-2d{hY*fZ
zg&&YnL{yI`hoTljOt{cMIzsu1cwDvV@rOyH?`faT3{gRI3s0U=%s_T^T62q2Y9ubG
zlpMD2G5zZoblc6&roA?ue$(LNR7n4Ipgwy1TQut*Mq?#g&(zYw9s9dfZ{!`}Jr2_>
zik4fgoY7U~?vEb_w<dm04)T6;FCF{M;{f;hQ+N9}-!1KL-z`($8D$FTuocPaswp6;
zAe5>GKMAD^ljB5)C;#;tG;6ZNW5<5Avg${-aZuYCst~@{#|lVfC}E}x4Mk|VN9d*H
z1)sTjc=6jR3;y5P(G>&QICsY*#;H8=F^TmAUP)=Y*8K0e?xU+a_g~Fb8D7PmDf`Vp
zBXA-OYmo>$zN4UA<Xa9&#;0z<2?W(Od_GOK*F`&)bFmxm{KI@Qz0}X%ru0PJQH(V3
z$^w%H)fKeGNobcYwyDKRQqX32l=MYS>xIpcfKM`y*{{H(aOq+`vB(T6YrDxuw&qX;
zSE<~^3Rm*4D*_>TJkTKZ$OQvUWo1eUN}+PlRsF%kCApZ>ZZaw=uqI%UM9!Hlr_oI8
z0C{*|uk7cixA9xRLG;Y;s^gkbEYg6Ig1d0W43HDc0XKflI?Ju1+R42vgv9&sn?^<S
zazogNkGp90ocvSX$Z)=TV=Sl1z|O?JMz=9eqwBfXIGWct7c%b$izyctyX<|Y67wj8
z;;R=@^|(IscqPWUEPL3KLFd53R_aj<?ag3k>@)UcCxnW7O?{i_cl$HGDh{Wx%_OHm
z(As<0%0cG-urIu+wC7b=l(w`hS!IlbhO&#gig52V4cYANyeVjg)wGGcvmG$WvPM1F
z9iyiZ<<%zWl8)ll$ETDu)#z2JQ~oTNDe>?XFqo?-xolX-pL_qyV9$E|zSG&D3anue
zQ><2Y7Lxw{iObOUnVH*joiqeOszfuD3U6K^^ViGMleQpinH+3?5s2QLlHb2|lVqy8
zo@&Cb`%PpQrr$ce*G(#r?8tNdXTh>$7v)u88#)<h_d=A0vqSRaw7+}n>#PkkL!mQ^
zc}arSA6|imV;|2+iYyt|2mH670EHnhY)yh|Xh9&9CiB4^Q2E?OF<%F}7ptldTi_2g
z4;9TYDM-95>r#1_!U#Usu;*(CD|nvYocK8Z<Jt#ZmIuo$$6VQNCLi9l@w~0J<ITF8
z`J<ShPO0bzc7utpZrUX^rlU4l>3q6kyVW0C^!>b)hhsZkqtg#->Xc~yEZzFGObLf6
ze|@G>&w5w}Cp$;Yh-cc;_PpjX2OG!Btu(`D?=U{JG<(Y59S;_0HbZ<n26d?`M`yGf
zLvmfls6l3??U+ZUM@{ggZ(C+5O^&>G@4DdLYBta++RH)`D1A=TGeQwn1&sT76hF72
zl+<_D?b1*68_@oSTI~fS)C+*p;}7cny6_DL%m7=T=D3~vcH1y4ZKxQe6&_lBkGldP
z^3FzsdpZ+qHOO;jY;byFhCInw+)25Kh7Qub7-!4j4H}v?`R$qEn2}NO%>Y%$N7?;G
zktZQ{Vwf8-y8j^lag^NH^0LH?JUq<_tY>(5=-AZdZcD~{J`PtAl?m3boVv>45Gp{u
zrE}X2c*7(;02thug>nPcJn#~GuGG}t+m|P<I^e_KB%67qYH_UQe18$N>X@mvfZnq+
znS2y~-k<0kQ$wwwhH6DqE_fJjJmi~L_?{?vpZFAB<7YmbKG?PsomB>$xx4nYvL;>9
z$GC-C(ROVl$&TMMyl75w+9V4vYp#S|w{qt_Fer%y(g6p%Ah*49xU>h$ePK~FmVdTv
z`%mlPg966yWLxIHtaD#@L0VHO?8YAY9n&zUxc+|rDNUedN#qX_k3-0^{CG@slXBxm
z;Uvj70-#v31A&6mKtK}1%8uQL*mCv##%K<Vn!-m{_vu-PJRP~NALV`PlwxVIZy_n7
z06wRN4&^_^xMNjUAXo;#O-`IR!D8-9_k^9&#BUE{sHk3#+Z*o0F(dF^*tvEpb>_}+
zco7VOEh!UATv4w!xNdJpz0>T!IG2Sy6xOx*cpwEv{5<#qo%oBuZZbGMexX6dohE(z
z+4F|cuwNax%C-t?b(gNSgsOzXqZkA!Q)}~Cd6}5O87)t@K%lIlN8u@tn4y25*Nb^J
zm`>S6@tat;X)24#lZE2Dqo0+XQ!d4$?bveIVq)~e6(AwRtgJk$T?B6kXU%LO5eFOV
z5M*AUc9v7Ue~!JOr2-DBHp8#DAKD_^krW946NKxAuA4W}h<G%#&SjW-=?OZkzQ{Bv
zG%C2NXi~Fqw~~U~_m><;yo{IGpeAMQxCHKZe~ZZynwnH!_^1}dC7-^UQl}dakkGp`
z4&d^t%JY1`1ur#b?{C`e$c3&NrD-yHj)Y5}DBtPgg+i!Q$7AkO_8Q=M%Brek1YLup
z{*|J9rTR(8)eKYa87b`yO?5t+0Xu1W%=SU19itYrU52`yQr*H?#Nug*TDkxSX@OeU
z@)yXZZp``gr<ZnLQcaR~Zr<nRAbfn5MOuWSbWxRHa#p#_5~4tyrtrK8S8J1o9fe^n
z3|*kn=jqS~>Mf7JUg~ocHj~dYwo9xH&g*~DvcsUO^t1JAZ!9mCRzJSST?ZgIh$4y7
zG`+0{jX&A$>uq;Wh7E2s#<suki%3U}+KF`ZA+N3(Ow?^6IThBMfCUOdQc7G5JAg<=
zeM)V@mn0;V6EiT_WRrOI_PWR}A;Fn>lvYaPb~K0GotIvE1z(8Mx44U+9FAujgEbK`
z&IrSyQKc%MY(=}6Rq<<FasbehK}*dM5|rg2-YRE$c;R1QiiQA7t3<5%RX<OTwwA_*
ziskoAg#rOW5^=Jfz)~B8*p0{N{OH8Fa<r2r1mGLCE4M4-hq&i5Sn?`udhee1k44=v
ziT1N+4cIJ?5kL}E0=VD5?6(nU62&$OZ1AFsU{tSR0qIeZYeG&-Ny%SJ_UI#vD;^Dr
zLjCu>iyPioPhQr3-El`X6hMkOKK;DP!W&N9Loi28i;t+L&{nF8$(#z2NUR=6Wx?J(
zY%-H5IWaSVm#u`P(oiL|ywLb%^{zd%r|B<(LP1i>p_43GzYFTmJ9U;q?MGs#Wl;TW
z1o1M?iX`aV$;e(~NbgHG7{aHCK?!)t3elPVU<+qYsOqwlp{M?C`uMo_YU_inX=vm5
znJ7RvM8a%sU9G}1GF4@Ub`j8A$Wjp!N8ooZ(&VrbH0{)MyN5QOE^Gks@XOKtvFER)
zqz!DMwS8XFm>Fk2NZAnLb1LaKmB6ejXwqa$fb7Zl9zzZ&*QoRtBMm5|0vaRshg{Mi
z*U8wBLnIf#%WbAV&seR2{pWXLL&Ndq)=vtjs{02#N@}gcKep{1u7kRB8}F4fWqXR;
z=r#2U(oPN{zEIr)>v<f10kf1aDMqXW>JG;y(dIXlUch&wT^4s-k&dbQ(=>bMhQpjA
zXMJ^S0(~{GNlt0snARs?{OB-e>-R5vxLXrA$JT10H0e#}ck1@ob()KNg)zP!<f|uH
z(1}b2t#beOWWUD34u?W2IW*+e2i<<sOd9sN@aG%Zs*XoAAeRf{3N|X)B`H56aYeM+
zd+K-90=tRzdbME|3L*PmYqDnctT?`@Bj@o)<1&rpRaHwxg3DK~)}KAdpT`<9#U$*u
z`BF`H=-clAqWQcN;^J>h^^*cT9?d{Klo$_9)W5KE@N##P(^XC<4Y^+w?#MPhpXVYz
zA~|AQKnRZ&pu8$Xjj$~+sc1e#(d19idk&ds=e7JxZEvk%vg)WY3dh2LGu+EGN0;Y^
zVq3|)^vHw;_fkoQK?8X}+2*D60S|*FJ~|a~kCShSA&hZa5cH6h#p!`?0?L{V)Ep-<
zs;9Q^-z^r7A~o9GdRf@y)^hs^hjfM1JnS1(1sVtml+`k=kbVJmg%thS{l4kdk=9(w
zA*FR#`CG{78iK+y8vSjLTjTTsR{PsFCq%>gA9*6TQ;m03=@nHM&iN+&J~!1AXR6)S
zt8gV6(j?LU4O|R<>R4w*v!>n`Z-Y2%KtE?M{kft-sKP>G&c<RsU;d)%49EDkkl)8@
z-QZ)>ZR#OhJSg)-`y@D6-%HhtSu3=XKEn@}a=Aa!nW`E!_c@Y~i<Ot0p=3-VLBnht
z-)gm`cg|n7`X7;Ax->nemA&{juB)#Js-jwKXpovShRdsJlY<%GoK#P}hbq9}e0i+g
zs${B+a)!Gl6!~~4aV0+nM`7zPb-wWpV(kd(y%W!<s<r?dXDuW!hCo2pkCM;?x9vT2
ze&_Cdwi^}Nh}{sO^VBoUqGUq=6(I~Bs%#b9V!8)k>DxHJ9$<}I>OTbi`RFq@PuZCf
z6S1qMe3Fua1K9QzL}k40zfhKRp&K`C!5$oe&JP!GOo8Ev&vogy7br_{h4&divu0ET
zAUSrloD#c3{m3Q%JzK-vdA?*WVP`??ghO}|iuH52PAHn3gq)!m!NE?{T5*3YW!AVH
zR1*Kf(@M*C@a^fjsP`hE^yqgT($)8zjXfDj1s)|7N~~<~^UQ1gQ`CTo{Ic`36p}zR
zI3|=0Qua11o_L>fG?*}!hw=JMT?$D*LLLcGDS)-d3CIYpG+aBB^3Fj#$qv)rtH!>w
zDt?2ya+q(A>4cmqFQXu7q>=z<ay<9KR@`C+Twna+>7SXYwCrKEMVHq{;Y5)-4&?>P
zI|L5`#G8{`Z79Rtr+ln%0CC_s<_Y}Ig_#B`&!U&Jfb;qfgVm%8&j&txYtZ^vZ89Yk
z-w(=>r%x3fBFT7RmeSpCtRr~vv5}iT@#^+>O@=HF*<LLi8hWTJc1PUo3x<D;`KGyx
zB$JGxJYETsUmUaN?5-2f=VeXim#%y#lA5rW^tgq!WK=ldo3lvaMq$=!<|)AY0qLun
z?+!CR%TN}rFPm#nj-_A5!l@{QW8yg+>=^6$I9{kJr;M~kSzxwppVfp)GzdOO0_jWW
zwF4y=*+Z5Idx}K<?Ob@G@fX3T!VmiPzsB$Z`TwMw4*t$Jd5wo3|4S0zbjhm%KisBh
z<@3FA{1eLM(Z_Dx$#F_>yfGuEan`u0w0VPui<f%(PF*b3oz`LZ-(k8f<#9YLM|rqv
zqFr+j#W=~3R~P?)nC7%-``?uj*oAR4k5fHW@%o)U!Vh-YbKFxW+krmB7M_`NOS-&f
zM;v-c%$Wf{Y`ky{E<JuF$@T7*G$b=(E!~+_0AoNs@%#t1ILIOHy#UjgXw~fKAHHF2
z{za!wjaG$s^vo8oFi43x06W+2uUp{}d9h!;DY<T=@!YJZ|Kw&_!YVN39z7O61=Hi7
zI&S&#&=LBgUplW#RH_8f@v<L_ka+zKTsop}{rA&<#1Q?R2u^HndjU=lR~~BY4!6(T
zi-uc?e&!ZBfz+V65VFE{EZ*e+NCiFC!Tu!}3t!@Yl-C`|zk6!;V5Pk&k+JA2RY>X7
z&#`AojXWw>-`0V7kbq5!ZP@HLnF2Y9=2bZ>fOO<t>8Kb+6+bjrH6nLar5Zxv?}Uqf
zKjl1WFi+E`ja>F*?2`@!L!7B6+sd|weEJ1*RmXW#u>otX$<{Ho3p=F^=YRM*jZ@Qd
z+_uw*RbpBDBu*5KBkn-L?%!L^bm?;$O|~N=n_bFLcXVPplXp?q;ng|Gv1d-NG;M1b
z{bVydnzH!38M39|DJ{?(dxk;h7IMec2<zv6Us!1bQlv$s`1_k9KOTfMG3jxH#5`IJ
zrIZ+eD|F^T8y>sK(zd4Q@d2yuw)(mJ_?{Ct>V2>>>gX=5KlH3Fz?$`Q>{Mmv%k1%S
z)7Dh*Hlx0?)m}+MyLxDMCc(}Uap178d+f@(fqmqzJDl0NOnvT1Z55{<=-ycI#kM{h
ze=E~9YravL9E>WS$NlKFlQ&vS##6+4bI6yg&$3*zRL5d9nE>c6q~z&MJLo#)+CMB=
z2|Vc})NhRDk!g80*cAG;_F$2<HzLI-=80t?aUK~Vw}RX<!S1bmXfUjA0g9jgy=G#O
zJ9eAXGI4p*dVN`{<+CFrTq?>$xvhJTkI&+G743Ynt84pBbGp&b`LF~h_M68kNx`(K
z7wjWvopxQ!QZSsQT(hq+YTf7YOyHKqQ6=B^*(y%&Ma+(M)3D%d0%OYelgO~4?<^OL
zOZqzw(>HIY;lwtJ*$V(m#A1dk9(89OFn+7vK-xOv1r|y<GFty?_Fa#<EuquxZp7p?
zx;l+(X0KGk11ZgnhV<JW`_y$7Rl3N&HoH}~a}ayrW`K6{SZYf|!*-k(t0tOvn@FKq
zq=B-pZuGBkStHOmW#-_9sf8t5qqwQV>G?r5w=C=y4fCjhD+-~a)tH}DtO;Zydw_O>
zYVm7r>iK?}Y_lfQy^hxqeP7onD>Bb}+2z#G;P-|^Q>5rqy`8_{!ThTcJN3YNtZ=5(
z>>l1Q6{8<eCD5R`6)RfeK{~<tu~mH{HI>?TSE;c^hlP1dOjXk_zoimZi}8w%3tCRU
zdZB+!OMBg@3evw!#ciag+9g&%n)nUl;?$##*@PxsdINC*WPMiKmF-3!6XrzC4b`cP
zRiB$=QNS^~Gzql&TXI~aTr@KnnOZ)c`p)bRvHqV1otuBp`P%9(D2r=LgmC5XgR}r|
zC?mZaVFC|Q$q$^OWrcp73PIH)WG9|f;GuQ+bSmdzUQ^&*ri}MbF|`Ix<Uo?w^Kl)s
zv=bt2b5f>7_ML-5tg@5MZ>b=mw|f@4HOX|Ifcot#E;&tSalX{`CZNICTe`N-*(HX#
z9l)^H^1h!57!MY1^!an@HFCykJ1mk5D#DhImtfoxA-BAbhvZm}LGt7D-@jEF>@j9@
zWKU3(II}jSnAd#mfhi~xFyE{hN+~BZ@+YIoTDaC?bBxVDS69M15dC;|2Fk(aAEW;N
z!Wnng+%w5B5lD1jDxL6wi!-V_wiOg@--5Ypmnj7GOic@=3;>oNZB$*VopP7<^&6)}
za&Uy{ac79l|L(456*CdGVOV#kvP?Blp_J63oEwpTHb3wu8SK0Bfd)pe?{#7iFmHXS
z^#=3jGu}Clrd=Gd91=QvM{Yn6p|=A`?&bRMgz-aq%VttqsmCKPE_Tzr9>FRBdB{^`
zO0;FiL?^0LF_8V-g~sm-@tYITmnO*;^>8Pfoq8ocg;Vo<ONy-mHEc3Afb1`V2>q+w
zCd0|fZD=d<4KhW_x;pKyPM*TjA}&gu>1Eik-Ko?cCo2B?i+HkuZQ(GS6@$$u4^VR%
zDRkpPIYc2VERskCIF#6TC3($mq^Lr+lEUnd@fg~t3J+2e=(>qZnAm6Nc=hc>)?KFr
zR`?x~`x3%?hUCEtLwC61$<rOGmKGMlSP<4&kplJBxPE?bMsVVwxiej1I-hWnNX9y?
zDiM7SIk+zu%;>UOvz7~neYWh;(gB4@m2u$MlVc=P=rvTOYDx{0J_uJVpkZ*0)Z*rO
zKG`jrXU<ClLiU7@)kVj?wgo0E*o;UOT`T0p5aDf`^pW<A>aLjKEVxmu)T15NP#%`U
z_4O^lvGG}@FPilwd*)$q@2S4N^c`GyyN8#5epZKru2H{V&0ho}p3xmccWJHD0!!Ei
zkUfeeIxg%k>vv?7+uaXqF=MqHHw`Il?WnM9(jYgSO2P~+;^H+y>#9z+QFVuux&@}8
zA~7MMS_WcX+^rZ=o@xt}T3l66*%R1wz*PHT7WnI?QN+b=1x_9#XCI%CKiRD^oPue{
zOAIA8lSe)3V^t&}tuVmv{A5rFdzIFpD2d^lQWHaz3NFE>>*N56vLs)0yq^h}`kZxi
z<BU%yZIBIR^R{MaIlr+}M_XSt6`M?qfL+;pXxBaROxd%g`x?)GP2Ew*R2%VfNeK!d
zs<^OfW4Pg#R)0@{)e;zOZ~QU7sSD-Yn_ivWfN#Wb9S`&-rg<L~*ru?=3_YvPW5y1U
z*Dm&_uc-`vO~81;U$*&Q3^Np_Qrg`D_?0SYO2tr7XPq;1lSmSY!d6Fg>%0gUic^zA
zeP+*zqy%hzv`n3-2QXvz#$6hY9@4F+Osnp7=?oxo{+tb!_FlqfzSYYfzjHbcfnHQF
z_39kOYZ|p*b!$!{;ZUeC+?HG+$(8#4)BCThr#w`g|F-n2U>Kj?{{XdKd1Qq9kK5Qk
zi1a-6+G-FXumpi8&UCR_WPfiUZ4~SxJ+x@0FwbLo?t#9$uJv=eWx7}cEy=z#ERb;`
zqfC_q=YLs*L_2`~BlxD`?)gN9XrtTrcp-%ca(sPnHJe>sx_MS@?p^D-f$h~fi|X@_
zNFe6jUe0xA(=?0%B>4L{!_OsRPlKJEA4V=3GD5<R92{zDi>fS?><L=DM4YHN&R%}Z
z*OYFTiS{|gVBnK6xp5}yqir+&zX<H(&uJXn&gIXAzg2<mSIb#IYB)_RpR>t4RT^T0
z3w9^0Mh_lC`@P1QrQ=#JBAr8d*&qc&mi;DbdZD2)5Au+I{JzqOR9Gyq0Np&@&9MRn
z%8Xhu)thl3t)vd-WG1N$^`nLf7g)*N*P6%sbelH!p$2udxpgD(Ew;s{eE0A(Pa13h
zQR!y9Sv>DAMVvuoDoJ-Z9~CqFlC70tmEMJn9HRftS&0yXes@*ibmYeMY4waH5$is<
z_+?W#(=a!cy7S|zx{T0dXUesFd*MakNIW0m0iICM<MjJC+jY6wrYoMO>Q!*KB$KUj
zK(&jHE&X?<ko3f*6Vq7nMWj1%n<B5%1V!v+I--QK)pzdDQWe$&!nBjp>nu8OTN=9(
z65O+R=hX1&pDVe=ZtV4Yih<EPDIZ4$iIJ5&%R$~$iG%DxDg=_*bJzpn!+%_T0~WUb
z9XC`d_O~3OTlIfaZelT)vKC?@drk{g23ev{S7Du6O~Kf@nU{6ncvU&>=mwHO0+uP<
zO!1qvQH(EtPU!nKO!MUU?vvVww||Qb$}+6JL_BZOA0XiXDzxk8hCU4LO|>K(b*H(3
zEH!l2*4z5-#XX$_iNaeK(;-U_X@?9m-#C>p9$+gh9;T0DkE^AM-$`k{Tr}aG1=O&c
zTA{nbzuS;lkV>*~(aEHhV&W!_&kmAS?k#W_b1p0yN1m>mqy4AYxqOKN2zgY=00cC2
zpZ2p18M9xD7;ET@-IG@M+E}6t?-u0Z;PD_0)YNqOvKr7eTi58<@%Y0vb9?hX$vDsC
z<z1}aTGn2x_`)(F)T^mUyyg5yDP@<{0zbpkTJ_d3ProVj@>#0iDOx}xYwfDV;7HZT
zNi4(n*hvaCznUUv+o$OG;$^0}I|tyoSqD+kELKXBHanhUR^#Q4xQR0X+Nl|ROcX9^
zK9?)r@ZYN|Ugi7aR0D)fM>I&xg;9qVK2Sl@hnid{)-#m4kAJ;TQ6D1(JQbAZC6yd<
z(T&n(63kZ$rF)o%pMTyVV8wi;LdLVu9Q-rW^zY5Yzxy)$bmG4rN;oI>>DylJ{)Qvk
zcX)a}Z|3>vv~b8jJ9A~cPSZr>Jh2`&JS@0T#-{vs$#+aQ*hc5`bq8Tn;z7ZqyiD41
zvQxIrO`)G9c==)<i{TF6F5--oxM12DA0K_^*#1R%P5Rt)H=YtY|88z_W8;B-r#In@
znOIhRrB3ZlY+7{RV#Z?FdOb~Aq;&!8K4C)W#kw_9qdDhxn;#ds$xDl3UXMc+Cf!+M
znuAyvG>U5R>{QklVJ<Dzv8YtP5m)5EkTE@Tmw+U%F+px6JKsL_Ajp5r6tALDe_oT!
z$g4w!7a%giX2&n}Iu|{IU0lF1C&(J{D1)RVmD4apJfE-NK2LpC5UOr(pPkQEo74@|
zVQ$EnF_j(o{&0~=yl0we)S97avUexb749Kpw5Z=u@-r{f{fAhFP`j$N%4fTiy&-p0
ziop(h%IRtl;^MTj;$}#p_c#l}1Sag)qAs5nePFH)WA+_6X7e9i4U5|$TLNHdVjitm
ziwj_iEO~|N1RKhoOV|%NR1)wskdls&!^2%;FF$_xa427jsdH-3b7*Cs5lFt`XfW9e
z@A|Xl06TnPBWWyV%Tl=;@{ET>^~Hn)(R76Yx@LVKFAsr8KuKhG<t3V)Q;D>7MCjXT
zYPc}#>7i-3leDO`O#HNoA1KRLH&m;egF_vY9GbShsKu&FK!C;ZY=UEg>#4@+>1}@H
z*wO=_ZwJ3-OZ#MGw`G@iOkBklQ{$U2+XPDp9=5UdbG<0FcfGT8f=fpYBglXs&}L<4
zmmU>I0^%$C8Z1yc!w0#EiCP`cNv-BO-BxT(^)f)Ip2C%Wikyy5reArmKKOwSdE@jb
zsbcNcC!c(xBzN4;gx3m7h&p89IUd9m_3Lw7>Qt*?kg~Tyzce|#N3W5aFeK?i8;zEi
zjzWG?%ATKhic87PsD_&sN6z89xy5ip+wFAGX+VP=5WxAaja(tjOc5S(7R!ub;$e5A
zncKS>@X2|h`Q5>%TnojeBcJ&#DD10VDTfM4J}DJ-lCrdr)ZR6hUBa(6V=&|$Kf{qw
zIAdHLd76$Y2XP#6aPM4IcK_a7N!iElGZV4Pd2Zh3-d%+0e~NAXR(Gcav+=w_CgB26
zA%<gSI@=4}+<=XC_g@6`TLvB3CiJdE!bS6op>*p!HVQPU4D!di0|DzfqbAQXA-Sfu
zDNQIITqU5@>G{cr1}C%&B*yXyh{vIi$4ppvl=Oc9?FRULrE$QC^rwrhk@j`76s;B_
zvPiTR4+g?WA{X>%;+ggM+xG${Rxpgk3I9FS7Uf7$n~wgZy>SU+SYk$F)04vFKDqXw
z{N%3Fr>z~_l#hzfM6Vw2h&4hBIKJ#Q@wAnCZ$70@*hBN3XBK!o(V~<vB)_QJuls{@
zf7wjjNq^*N(Y~Im3*s~v;KL>eCxy*y4Qc~foH^S<xhZ-4XEAxryDj&d$d^W__6vhT
zIry4;6Q+l4xVv>0bu{Ir+a<`y>814vK6Aor*7`j4G3I4da`(JiA*co_Qov!*os}S;
zy(&n+sv$*+sV?Ox69XR)#T+#3ggzl91VK<(d9Y9ARoe$XZl)|l!eL-jfqFjI%6npG
z5u+)+)gW<gwIr_;{Qpl0CLUI~la=)ChFpoT+}W|Bgy<O6lr|@&r>~ka5a>K|ektT(
zvn%B`F<{xr;)f{evDI}Xi38?i&2&A-00(B7q)(a#(<N~nM;&_0mnP991=%IZS8iQj
z`2C$`^DJLYWkdo>(q28VzuiDeXoaYcLnTh8zQ0`r6M&np)OeeTDZpc|Sdk+MO})8!
z6r~KMV1_Sd)XRm)1c{iLw`hWYD75~+&xp`F^P6`9d^mRh1w5CCw#6yxb1K9fy9y6I
zewG{;T)6dXaVehEYp&$)xr6U=&0YfsG+Ks0RFK&<iS1vpXZEdXFfLRqUILc=Klg?I
zrAhq1by$^|7n5wt3SO{~SI}$IJun6kdv{}|){xoxgk00N%d+-GJ+b93_w$O@g;J^3
z!utSmG=FY?$~TnIaWvSWy&B2;SqIhC601d4l0RXIe?4=0WU_Pj&k&b-?XJlSzEP3&
zCZ*QZ?^7R-JOu72Mh!$&JnULa>$fW~z+~x@Bd3kcz7|YZ>>6m7gDty%zp$A&OC_Vn
z%zSr&Mz=8@tcx99@$mG!k`iw{saDssnf|Te?kLSlQN&=+1Hk#c(?X`t&GV)FWEfMh
z<l!e=+hQ*+u{bwuu?)*`ePiQ3ET@LM4JJycdgn#9`5b1>Z2Yr6zSQIKM<sZSzuW4s
z>pBLy77Zw$+adxz@B2dnr&l~64~aX9otBsEgCE|p`=Dix4^nj*Zb|=fS}IA5mMMR+
zX!LM-mLWTmPf5+>`;sPt!z9<0bojNagQsV)MB{u0s~ztUc<gvB$F$f|FMFqW6u!0B
zW-0>~YDG&PgNmA9{D>c8KacltXCWtaQ;$)_QIOBh*`Qz01+Pha2k%8Xh-;Fs{i~FD
z+e>3x9RHJt1>t`z$-Fw4D6O8r9v!EA<;>t_$_MIqp7;!ZG|J(Im9fm98x1T&un
z`ZEv1ilSGOXf9EC)hFLWvAYNs>nM8@6Dgthd)=kobd$Y6Ej1JkQE%W%_FVG*Mu8t@
zY!b4@qYXX^8B%55uQDfmiT~u8v-5Ziak%7Zc^V<bcir_ZeCqC;mIoSqDS^icSWSg-
zs}HA!K1#Bi8pGawpsNbkpB)iWQKKB10!wi7!L6Kb%RiiPB93RNyt3EE+nL;yTuA|3
z5hwJ6mF~A0mq_fjH3^@9C>-ojoxK%v7Nv-^d9j$0!)=YM&j~Br$&x#a^!h;tc%z_U
z1^I{mYP2>y9em2%3Y0f_qF`{=Vjr+d?M=G?*1W6|KanZ>BsydJ<U+!H{MdRz1mt_~
z`PR?+|FtHw{OLDsY=ckP=Dy8APw<*nijNpX7UxlNMdDkmflG>dy0kc1pT|2TDUjh$
zb?RifX)oYb)dWngm<22<H9NKD4Nm<<AXG>TOg2<^bDdw-BFQ~f2p6>92>UiwHWv~5
zbBIYedJh^eWUnsBDEZ-0(sOubZfe*1e3sgIth)cA<zlz%#uomoVZZM7^`b*c?P61-
zEaxU#TJeQPHTUmX@85?Z>58K@LyI2rcNFl>LL5-3h&jV8_37d6bcCaKVj3t)WuDoz
z_Gql^%3UdpcifkaQp1HS><A*$nk<N=v*Z&?K(Y`dNQK(jLW;vL(Pw5`KhC)(OJx);
zqwZ6e%H~YTYE7x6W`5dv;g05g?hT|ob#I!jtXgnPnu~mxwUoF;NtIc`{@zvYVoxYv
z+O)w~pp|jnvX+vL-<WTY+=0EcA>aNkw9AmF6<PWkbctZnyFEQz)^M=FFkRkm^g;h#
z!d#ugkXiuS$1lV&7Y19ReHjz<s91e|kr_vE;?Xolep4u4{huzjVO5*FCyOvgse*RW
z7~0?wz<Yk$tb(x`r5txFqlAqvQRh%bc{|;E1G-?SZf63dsVBSthlC5=YNmk@<*eFj
zIrh4H4{&+NZ)TDm?cdV83qLFE4L2yBY}KPeQ#*1XSW2Anb#8lJ*l~X>I%sN_cXd?W
zod?~FPKZl{r7b}shQu`wj~6#G$-l58|642Y|3g{OJ@cQpuG{%(xch&#i}+i|poh16
zVrTO6V1)~FNtfy3x8cY0aS7<s8JfVZL_Bh3x>S?^&GWA)V^pkr&g~he_baX`pCw$r
z8k`<UJP6@xNbb`6V0C?}b#Qx<|Dec_=f)3VAC<;Gpljn-c*|hvGFt^;-SBWqPVIl-
z8UDAeOvyA(B(%-cM!gEv68u&3O&%{`{`G2TJh%4k!iL-zS@dq7-W6Gf?e%O~B{f6j
zpRngH1E*OGaO=TQdyI2Zw4>%evkf;EM$fHfT&(z3rUAW<b-8ko$zfj!x?kr*0KQP}
zJlK~_nmJ(P)PYQPr}+>pM|S2JP33#;laxPU`4;X%$ONzv$XUWbDrK2mUZ)!*Us+!F
zj*o-f{Y{*=Xoa5$Dq(170I8RumYlv)lI=HP_&D1-wNVXH%oK_*mAbF{q>7b5xWG1-
z+WOAPn@m6)X(m^L$A_yDea#ECy=05g$#KEq>8n?zvt%HE1OY*CHsWc8$kF>I_bagZ
z+4Y)ho30<V^u`#)i*U2_u|?Goqak=*XiPvR*R77_A>C|Xw5H0IXeCsQwvhXQd^c%X
z$I~QcwV)u?JvLDlQ*1^|wm4UFL4((m?Ym56MsuOND^KA|^Um)<(mt7t0H)VEs&wDG
zCB`XLKCZyauXc)@COzTRaG(A`!Cu>)*nze>@Ut&(`v~&$<|Mb8Zhy-2`1*RL7#f8V
z4IL((INOUdq&-G)gbp+Pp9Eh+274M~p!AMs=TnY+GbsrnB(89oAdJV@N2xaLJqi_i
z${HWMpO3Z3$g<>~bV5;2Brg;^W{<O4%k&VLYAQDB!x^n0Otl7f-J$(0idKH&?^HEU
z9l6}&f8n&Ytzo}U@G-`gFR!Hh@9ll))cd|)lEd{{qZsL1swv8{B8t4QNwl38@f8v3
z<<*UbG^MPzpTs)s(wqrb{<+fqP?ztQg|OL?isSs$x-&nWYqAjrA5pg)c-k<8x9-`p
z?b^~Yac>!AZb(XkH|k9q8-Y-r0%g$ixWPwd5Y+k-j~W%J6k(v+FHD0(0A?ChcmmOs
zug(MW@{kk9nS)C1H=u>(c+A9;Kee=r*JfJB0T2H67lcF;hWsxLzEjbEA0#;yTrA0C
zX&q4gKVerI;dws)w(}ZA5vo0k8hDgXLw&aW<v^n3{BRq#qMsgzutev)O4D&llELLB
zq8^aiR;W0-Fz9Hh>dD>cr1!Ohqiz@?e1YIE{Vq@k!;v<lUvia2#z0>hvI^^Hkl8)X
zn%^+auMN6JiEK(kPp6ULl=^c(K>$vXCV_L9fZ)38$zIta@Mn3$r;m`c<?F3ym(tAp
z7TGAqQ;5|z;hQ&Z1CO*sHs1s-OEQlFcz^#zK<#e%Tlh-gFM<NYTD=o?!p}6+B<v+_
z1jjVjCFKxiymL1+0gYIjHyT-D(j<ySzt`!Si535ugI@4$0#73Rg=(`}oHE_!Z+YsP
zdAT9fW<<SWs%2?|_pIu4#h!+fQQTP5%tAe*)!K~;Tpk~T@op(5y<#StFX(sDE)n0w
z72@A{&qN#A>^XChtM-EpZUaY6v9@|;Wsv6hNAq-AKQ@lZW9G&vVu7Pgvo3Y30I=$&
z+feHg~O9u8&w1SG7xlxLIqsGRx3;bGI+@lPgij%8PhCaYsiR`QO^8i%;}5kJ=;
zUB0~R++O|6li=trPvWii8+teOyc(@J*_#%Y58r_GH0%$^2(pb4I1F|ZA&W&;1gaTs
z%rMwCO6_7pSUJ=naku0)!TY%{^oi#>ac5)WY$BuGPR0U|e!dHDo*m0!o#k8F5`j4w
zkmMRys6r#twCL@o4pl6}!?3CDO~VOeQ4rFKnDT4PUj)yVcZt|$056LzrP*q?)9#yb
zf)h(TEXIVZlYe<Fa(z_(kgSs6c`sQ`u`)w^T3Ro=KX+bual;zkwNJrHG5NJAUaC}`
zbhrFZJiot+XIspZ#5am|0Pa!cxS?D0wuQuK{P>Q*`BulyzbeW9wglh{j%_36W4%42
zfV9T<)kuS#%9KTAXO(wJDi7pWDRi>l797nB&QNT(jim5DuxMD1*6XUr@`Pj(H{T)h
zc3m<2Q|{!2P7HU~%$Xvy4H;@&%y8(uqrS+HNlt}G%%lRLs4nKjsf{gvoU`oGCbZ%$
z9X<%*VAUulJY!6C7a$CsrQi@iiucJF?a83p4M`quRCmKk-ogqHpjelb%Ov!;yB}7l
zJ70~q;xJEzG3XOG?z%;!%4h>N_p@U85YI{O*md>G_gNDmS4(m(Oz^!^joRV*P^|5o
zwd^yBm}+Nwmmx-E!l3!hatAI7G*FMgN6qJvD^fTShb85;0%WXn@Lzw?vRPm4*C?0H
z1#D<<lM2H&-%(OA<*u_#!PTB_iHFkW+1~GSKHIk&B)rmgtnC2=$8PIPi!d0k0S<*Y
z;>xDMyImLlfI2xeCM&)4=O^dx0yNIYegRj;r|2PijY$P4?)4;lYsZK4^1YFeajB{4
zddMdZ+7;Sc09U`6M@&HYF*Kzhp4uZPuGDV6EhINv$V4X(7?p@-f@fL3y`f9S*c)eo
zO9W0T=ZqeuGKoBa6SoM8$Co{(e%{v68vv4Dy;ELlAJT`JrCp@vR*4#-v*A&C$-zTL
z#}z377`3@DD>#@Vm76__t@i70dfw9BNJCSp26VCbivVn=vr8mFKuN<<el7A=nf$?P
z6|9YRu>v{uG?n1L)ma9ALoduZ(vW|BVb%Km`sT$gUVCjX_w2IBQvOTz+ht7(?>2WC
zT_VMTSydsrZQb(g&KD(QeY|v=vRHrEw@<&@t5<pc_MDq6OQEte)+^`D>M!BO>r-Z1
z*~)#hKTC$kGzW!eeTU!6xOVTJU-MyKmBcEknae#-n$t!DCHMvK!O=svVEDCwp1S=6
zG^73|#&AN$;aNTQ66yHUnO!OfY#-^-$s|R<p}Iss<pP;|7qBuf+X}AX31^#co9o%w
zutjmsTBOoNvh+%qJv5-kbe13sOPP348|()BF>QABQtX$OW{(if(NDjJw7tEjs`kx7
z9TvU)Bb1e+NBP7{FF;VO#&??ZP0_9j3pXYAQppq;ThZEb9l4hoclMaQ1-?z+)S0`2
zXlQ<7v@oO~^k5UD*e-s#XZWsdkAqj~#64q8*aDV6;2c5Daj(hEzj#UQt|EV4Y~Pv}
zm#=hq!qH7Zjjp>VIZ>pR7bMb<PsyhBd!{QzLX~hlEFn~rJ84DDASfoWt+$Viml#+<
z{|!Cr@>I@!S9+47b7O|@DT9RVGf*vnJ!No}N+QWC@VvarvA9OpLnf#;Hn0Z{t+#dK
zq#1I2WjzJp(`j4ujdbW!yX^7(?#`4@9_f9|(AJ@UxO?te<r%VYcsVc^bw*|)l~>F<
zQ_zOxkiSEa`;04aBlA&z+k5<5K>DU4INQPMxTMO|?s*9yi^GAZE|Rhi27ejcPK6Sh
zOOoG=FC+fZGiIM}*hR4ZpN0Crik&ph-p>!zm;N`g)8F$y1L|og=ByX~!xi<a>^}`v
zL~ehhN;k~?8#ir3KE6=AeS;adocvKe^-<L52Kk%Wb9TS=J<WAJHSzlc)(v$CITBg8
zOi&Q~TC}614x6T4{^btHOXX4e!~+#UWrX2o)spRuL3$<FptK)-B*6Zw)jTy@$QU{%
z6x1X8t`m#uP5Q@W^q&lEn$4Sv8f=#TXOTH&J#+~HDKh=6Qn_ey`nNn?k##t!LdV7Q
zEFoB8;5FM#Yp7F`-i8iuot+HS=$gr5&h$vw{OK#3ZD7L9tK3`p=nD2X_mT%n2sD)0
z;Y6CX&!=hEHj1W^mqXgr*!qzmN>xT{CX9W`h?Nk>3kr1mnN79C@KXg<2!z&ETq|pB
zgh0r9*>JOM-t@~nM|!>Mc<(t6&~6g45`$noFHUnV!JFT7V-KeA>+P5u711qD2Z?e^
zDoeqhCDS$efm>=*-!e~S<&C8#rQqrBte}g}n(y#Bd50|$foK!EuGR+V=)P1STrJA%
zFGHK-Mbugy(<smqP`PfR8CBU1m3VWD-M3ShE|~eP6Vnfh)~DXi#l0>3-vBL-Jo+a+
z)a_S<u0P&kx4s2@OMJ_(tg2!i@6j^z_{GB&sI$yl>!7P+XCj=N20s_VMV>IFUt1_b
zB0UDk40gZ-$-M#N3FPy`sLlC&cz3VpdQ$A=93hw`Gv<vsDd-BnceyT#FE?mKTDx#h
zgi$-M|JenLU`&KFPZ!Rmn{~pBnf#xhKbtD^#j^A9H^+YF;w1_LS}cSC5U=t!ajVLD
z0l9jlNPQjKFev#pOdYmB(=6@^YTnXG6-#!n+ohvj%wX$0e^jzv*g0?We61L?2ni%*
z431A}>m1t^Ez!{f4(Xd7jGkR}B%K2{yy%mL;_jL?ROZ^kv%meC#?7!RD~zpsJ`n$&
z)LAGN*r#$6ZbUPbHVKoT4~|HyChlO!#VLH7tdP(ZTh3gkQwL}#|LPu?-qPtv6o1>e
z>(v;BV@xYKcZ&wcySp^Xj#!-Mr9d);+vW(z4I~X+ux%=nmp3_Sm66)(m39v&IXb>x
zt3dV02y!+{LJ`0U^ar>h;E@)n=~uj3p&6&D`$pVE@w18jX`s8kN2idNQC!b0?ZiFL
zD@6LY>8FRD>tJKc@u<`cRmePlArH$5yLEu*RhqM%bR@A;kSs1prO~LpBhON4rkejr
zl~ZpX=DDl4GMtxcX|kcKW3X|=<tKUEYP#-;0%Ssa_lpi2s9$bW4gT2PV~NTNW+luk
zg@n+~)d^AF`E`C6I>iui3`tKqvCcdS7DJ+){?<VM_x;;HFE+qTxFKAM*($XSUZDF)
zQiuyvth+Q3-Cal&yRjBQ{No8Rt_^1A%O8t9ZRE^NUyyd^yj=7^oCnDP!0Z78t6-X!
z{LrM!20j><nH_1SS|LfJLwLX=TK>zZYyi$@aMQoyWk*|VC6}b%<H)<(9igbl5Hph1
z;pAMg;d&F-y0M%o?HO)vwhl`x;q`1-i8Fiop9S3GRzrxxxY15&n{Z+SkgrKwqVP*}
z=MTPy8?_}hM(0~$c$0<>X{>>IN7#fXhwie_UWj>N|L(x=-dOM6N!lm1(z9Y;#@O*3
zaSUyv&n_EhS*i_p^ATwh$}>AS><8k<w_iJVSDgeGcJA7tXe>(^>4vEDdJ(*UI}+pM
zb6<=U=2@I|y6LJDR+YlW6{&=u&u=wjZz=n~HA~YHov0vvh~<hPUW;|B>_J=Y3@rLn
zs<oGnm7};<1@e+AsKk{eJZFYxqLchyVN_0Q|00MwJNn#;a@V|#lXN-}@$@hsrEh-S
ztR%pc_(_)Z;XE||4*SC(AZX0LKKudd-YHEiPyeDe^iiwUa|29N#be@26S_mmm+{uv
zr&1feTB9DXn!Mrn^1fy*hf`G)unlRbR5>p;;m6n?+}jwZL^>uDk(q$^cBgTtwd>-n
zC~7He&(}PBK-vARQme0Nj=r=9IyBFFb!YLO8EaxyqJb~veHYW;_U`}T`=fQt`l+UM
zTrKBU(l6}wgDvU@p?t=8|3%f!f_lA%j5~J!z~IL5Xm~&JsBCU+j0YSsMCRaFFm~ib
za?G;U*H2;CmOj0RQI8cfhC+4JNJRlmG@ic6I&_^|CQm+AhfgfAmnwp2jg6q*fm?cd
zIrf2Uk>?gE`-i^b8t)3P_v6s`;Y1cV*!TD?y0@D`c0O7rQmvcolzgl@8egtM3whYz
z1kXS(zUw!;3!N?vGV6XQWxFchA2^LCni=@WKySEG4E3m4b7ZyA{_>A@cUr|JR~Fl8
z;TeU05FG$FRcwm>-~SN}yPNi}^PrYh@UwZnRMemrS2X;3EAhny(-Qan+B-f6&({-M
zL-OK{V@h&n2C69j4yT<;j%0lJQC*dNEfUgFlFgpOBMSS!8O_Z|fAhS7B;{rJgGoN<
zH(1=W6&_Vv_9UM$;PgP5`|m@@>ReSVS{CV^MNhLvZ9%atHJKz42T&sHlKxvgr}?kd
zopi%S?YKR`*;PoAKF+u&qz}c%%YH&W212nRK4a!ms-+T>wPoPt&wPCDHc4;vi*{1o
zzg0)5vrm*BxleO?f7RLzg3W4Osz9Tt>%PBQ+nJf{@rbe5s;xoGiTO8Ha#Z2nCt}$?
z>g90*nkF7qu|S4zJqk7XK3A@#zy0_RhgOG*JzPlX+<G^mL;M01<Pa2f*MCm<h^=*O
zhAlUJQ%O3Wil8t^ZjAD76S$itjw?<w?#X_Yb!jEl{-bOw1+(`;<hM9Dd9k5Rgn`*?
zc*7vsZq>$X@p8SppEb{$2kwhd(<Zh<6vCh0VTsytkDD;4PY<=)&`Oc2)|!-HF?p?9
zk)cj?ECKf(Qmhgz6xveGSBYI8XDXOlue>Ol^a9@P)6D%uqIoFF%I+%3!tF*%M7&0P
z{j*ZWpLcFE%ciUWYQJ@JW-SiM+#aWb6?|Q&dc}rlVmlN|p!#YN*h;XHwd&Rz_-Adb
zR+Ofnn$+6FqS+|yW9*O{f*n~*>b-0oCn#Z9Tk%p3{wO2`S6E!Y&F7{<MJcztF6mtU
zVUx0wN4M%UQ}o(Tojkn~dU0A{(qdWEUVELOnXC)HvnrWfEYkYvs?c#bJqPd6c+S=I
z3!yioIm-uqKNszh&){NS{84qa{?`VR#g&GGeWt00L7lJZg8OD>q!pA^C|s?G2h0u}
z&IZ|!n5ef;7Dx0s#T@K@H@s2uJe_rji#MYVsd#HkPB(UER8GJr`L*qD64#EUeCWMR
zMupceJ$T?qCQ{#csYKh~us7|4j>OUpD#d3!&{>6_TSO8E-7@+`2B^18$BxOHO&jsJ
zlV$8+>-Li_!jvxJ#ML<KtoJL0-3e)e)Fn=ZZzKVSz-ft1P&nHl^rhWzp^ectbFY%<
zk85aT9clx%_Ob81ay_>HcvG&k=V<g#e8CQB&L2mF^`I$Z2jZCorh}QKd2)!|)dGyX
zE>ut24@VLJO@#vlNeQGvy@j&F%>3)tMql*aRU86?0YaI~)XU3>LCS>7B=5^PCrReB
zmN*(wXLd;|@@{ksgycFB7qtgC4;@(dpe%K&Monto$75XfV=;%yxdGj-#M|<nV1)KJ
zMZ)_MXt7-g!7&!htFx&GHt;#_X*<m6XmoA(oN@yUJKab3)f{CzBxYehTps8N4Wb=9
zku@bh686L7KBxZj0{4>*u4}z>2BF%^9{<v4!DMr*#EO4<yb)*C5q(YXo}Yu@8^sNm
zF|eqRxv@!(6PlHX3*AJ*UzLM|bcbKi*zCy;vOepCzFuA-VCECiT(pCR)oY6G@w%@c
z$8ff%+#FtSIs9bUh4xS{(Heb1lK_uM-k_B(O3O?q<~S`cL_}UCg^G=MX1ckM4A3IE
z{LSnV^vGoJ7pP$9E;oJB2Kw9`PmnHz8Kze-&>M87)zpNFPn7rHCFdCca5GhCGjgKF
z8feR>uE*8v$S7dTud4;Cj^yK+tV|VE6=2#sUNn8LjmCDmKvHF*k8I|qr~7MK%}B!b
z>?XHgS!FfV?8%%;zNCzxDOL249we73t_nENtMV^67ppXfv4QPvF5+%dorG6DIq*9Y
zpolBcp~pk6ceIyPw5x*ury0&ejcQwE(auq)xwjWE_pz`B;ZGM;fhjmpp4`I?nwKIC
zseO$G^U3^ut<Z6wvA7d21MEaE>8atFUFi!CrBd3s?Y`ldFr&xiyvD5UL2D&CBx>Wg
zDv0A470N~JZDw-k@v($(&uP&E<JJL>s{~TV`!v9U9^Gt!#7u>6n5udy(Y1aROK^~&
z5-)mo0_hSQyrO&}9r_vdu-AL}BI-w*czf4t0L0#mNin8`Iy2@(6!Ug-9iyN{1$sNH
zKgF#!onO+zM8AR%K~|*I>N6T?>doTuJ@i#PxLDO=rF{o2HZBYj?JIPjH_N`i$9*%$
zm1X;Yume{ETW~{nEkWwH@Pgk9oSDY#_s&Hf$G9~O9xw#C7EY!nH^_;;vDW>PXdQLd
zAdAWOULkf2{XrZ!V(so$F72aXG+i=1PUeRn|1{_=>PL4JfMqV7CYd{~omLgs`Yg}f
z17DB1CQccMH}k@B)PRk#{|9sL8P(Lft_@R_A}C0aDhNmkpd!6VkrsOBU8M&Cgx-6R
z4k3W_8hSt=gboVQrB_4mNR=+2t}kotz1LZ5pR>>Vz5m{ybBvjcjG1RX&voDTRc7bi
zK0{=A*jR9A$EncobtNlJvi;xfR`hqr*bkop+!K$ghNuo?OPph-F#NxMhOQmT@30le
z1Ad_x6P@Xp47c_4Q*)38OOic5$va<mMj%vpY8I1!QX%w^bc@=;OS8TQY{~<269W9g
zx@T3qw$UKsB}K7Qp#>Dp)Y+|OYtl*MT!Kcu5rOQTWzA~L`-0i&X@jX<xx&xP+Vh}F
zlG?Q}b)Wm<pw#`jH)4+HrnPL>WeNxFL3jyB<wa(PPYU>~j<$(&t!hx~L7)|;oi_q&
z2wA?RUOCZkj`fJF=azYW^{;zMGlXkYS^Yu-c|QN{Bl)j;a{u+Q-+d$>{&~;;t6%+3
z_se=5{3Ps9P(Sd$Og*RHRg5m=?A$aa+UnfAZ24=jWM{+jfq~d5i+oz@VB{*~;w?8w
znVk}MOMs|<HOUVk`!CZL{0Vw-vxGk9HfreddseBP)O!{~_`9zX*!<Fzn1yJ+_-EYr
z@G-d#Inbbw*`cH&QD{qL+kHvEPFdw<5WnWy3kD7(2n!6Pvwk1%&C>*);-oWZ`o)#A
zK$q~}o=n-=+UfF{GPcNt*}Jvn@)q9lG;xx{%UUu)lv1ygKOmu7t77&@D9FBP)*Qct
z<PMdtT2wyMOK%plb90seL$Lu{23GLo8F7Q%VSQN!OvGS7o~>`_o`XIANVK!h&JGq#
zPQYaPYAlAC^a46|8S2x?WTkZnV%cHWiLtr)xhl*ugh3#u0T9x4B4nM$Ako5o_M~vF
zTs8M9dp%+BE0Ko=FH%8fWh0j}-AsQ;t8|H{P5R<lZqv7c$qP5KVapHuQbR41a&|X}
zUX4mSrQG+qC%MKtS<x&J`2=CDxjq+_jljc%FWn-ZD}^sFzkn`j`6v=!CVqvkDOHhy
zVhm_2JS8-z4iRoH8}o*}p5|FWap@k8tRN>y`%n?ed<Vi{)zFk9!7b976;JuW&KeG=
zEH=3NS#*}qvL#&~fw=8Rlg`K=!6B=vOw>oUUbS6Q`F<7$;ZwJ-kqA)@)&0I4*ZlM8
z8+wli$jc{(-5z`M^5Z3!kMUhBUPjcR=dpO+l_g0$UK5<)7zQzj&okDsj<t;vr`({`
zr$TV_P`j{DB=5OYMi(>?#H(03Z9eXX)*=1<mcTgX&pyO4D|YB%I)-N^`E8A#0^{;p
zTYfx;6>cr*+73BI{(>W*8_<9BhlDUOqx4sfW*wkKc`!(??F+6<ap<!o-=3F?U#cuy
zvE@a6-ix$}f{n$^)`M+K`2o-1q<&j{6d~QJTkmp4A+mv|=6QmKRMlBG#`|(CDJoy|
zaNTOVSXPXM`2ic2;-bAGi%-B97jxj7`xCE+Nb2cPxer+#Ok|-?YRu<bwL;m$Mqsn#
zW-jF$1tXQNd5NproL-4Bcgd-jFM>eLZN;tMUtG7mIQ<Uy#j0gBpQTC0@vK}=(_2fJ
zwTo4<EznZ+IzD}a2n>pJYu%_m#pZC`!h_#Vnl-cb+OKo%b*-)MzB<(J^5>-NlqlKQ
z2cMHF*ShS`!@d}^v-)iUrA!votxME9ZmLi(&7^Q=tT4T2>q|WymohShJfciKKhEc3
z;2OZ`+=ba~MwLCuQ3%i&rgBpw(Z1wU<&56)8&1%!XJ8ZPh<{APN1B&;w~<^vKK^3B
z@ep2i%&7TH+w}*bW40aKIPaS0C@JJ&`&$=@39Hu51jA9r^XXvrT&v8hL<YZ_2czZ^
z+)UcX%|Nk5p-#gp|F*cx*6mwT4UHL%y<oY^C3zLqm;)_F2M<IkgA*d;87q6b{B7<5
zZkO<EPsWuS>=q6HQWAp_D3b)#HHGa<IfPt2_uPZgzK<{2I5t*gUv7dIC7TF>gLV(9
zZ4FwB<YtO1o#7Y9BlCe5B1WJb;5hW_)J|x}M0;Vcr)mUQg6Y5pU;~YAr~xR(6Ey=(
zVdBjy3f8$Slrs42GniS3#6ZB0;!rC1507+`g-`wfhQqsPp)3o?e%`lTVK)QgG!CJb
zn2mOS<163PhQsgebJ&JtN3|^5jY7k4yIm!sdXZ+9UoDb^f_dYMsh6MDdm<K!Znkvk
ziZDk%+mn6YI-9br*RiD`jj{fQWTU3DKw#I*dLl12U5k}_;KS`SsF@9%fKATui7=OV
zTg$wC3bY-VLqHfxqCaUbD;4F#8DanK%jdoe(le@4q*9w?pT_B+#K2M4Hc+=vEdCeW
zes#1z><2)yIoUG$uE0cEWK5&nTe@B_e*U@H?rNE3Zz_-E_tUY`gf$U~1%eHyi{fvL
z-se|5guO*_n0A0qV~-BE<F(J3NLTo-oE|OL=?h=E;mSkIPozZ^p9_Q}1fokcZVCK4
zRB0TV?Ouk1=lzO2pke&$@07cmp=#EWsr49aT9AsAUO8<)GZ<MUR{i#AYDjJ!0{<6Y
z@B*lVLso@ErJs#u7W2<m?(YgNx8dgflD-B$0akUXZO_<rzQ)IW(~o|a3^3j){SAl3
zKpr6$Sr;T)Lo<JvGgU8GQW>?B-p}Tv@M2)d0cP%a9`+kfN3FS#jUNg{b^|g&{VJFc
zhs@_-X4x;hYjwo~FWF-7q!;cV#8mb-bq8A3y6lTVxT0PU%0g!PB^B?Amo^nF3@w`P
zT?bw>YSbcHs3iuqFD)j2&{3b0f~eafsPZ`c5q1uegKT2aUkL9Ob8(&a-7#2`C*uR^
zdW0oNbW*=D=z5>rV|c5m(wZ2m<Nf0f*HP^?7Qzt;opkaklNWG+Nwt|5{Sf)JX*0yV
zKuvs;?54ouU2Ukh&2Kn1Z$J%IxK#PpN{HoCL>tpeK+RE4pwL#HZ;!XpPNoxkI!#jn
zIiYvP%3YMgo1HoBL-EWz+@LspGdB`LQOW4V+e1V1$dajrCMMnW`^J#8FEVQS+O6S2
z!)#F&X2!kGJjn)J(?+Lxe?5E{qQk8M=2lcCm#9%ZPGnk+9GZ$T7*l2m>)$XK)O!uK
zZgdF{z3m?C{cX*G+@oVaYNKOAK@pxxSg7VU-V$LuO2}C=WMOYCl}mgqzZhu3Tt4EC
z=uuz2y1&SQK0xd*v6<aKEe*b2nBqc4jPBnH3&u0MaST$v-*;+ONwsOZpX8((x38cY
zH@_JL?HD(fYotz~qx*PXc~wv)X>vc&y-Z04)poB_d{w1i<^0%Uf{)DA_qfo}z=!vd
z#3{0NqiF({7@`W{;ig*;*5KJ4)Z@@RU^ZIZnbqTme6Ns1eRHx0>UPcj;U>>T2r%$#
zRS55bS)=C%pzmdO3GHv+#M|_w)9YXQwWW*r9G+`2pZy!R>0gS%4zBRxvTWQ>nNu(P
zg0r%1!e_!9AYBEywXKQAg16QxU;I-agQYd>4hgO?+4G~Z5@Bn0kC>{Q!8$|B7JR3-
zK2rr67GrSyi@pwyA8&$ljj=7@%({t`l5D*m1Hv-3MBfy#$gpUvWo|=ggbPk;k^43s
zCpG^+Md11LBmnhYsTaJx;cxldUUFu{GTom&=QzB?+MXkglsSwvfbaEU@(!@s8Yi92
zvQt>2mAh{aR4LhddF?lvn3Hn0vKA9_HWN?@R-XD%R%r%rmZ;rAD0=y7lt8A?EA3)h
zDqUD`=%B331AW=mp(qmAJWIvbI%Ur()O<zi8%WZ8EH^Ob9X>$<3v`R;MSbLvfY9`W
z!mNfdg#Q^ub%wUMRjT;f!V<nH#B$eOV#Vr+9OH5O`Co+NL(_kkku&R1Hhl6S3)U~0
zqP*)QYH(7cUH1c`;FieEN=g6j)T!8&l$2HeG|XZuN5wP#^?S{>Vf}qO?U|dXYi@$f
zUnaY%g*Co0n?A;P)Y2w(KqbskRVDKbn0lMty**nq!MUWj1CEdtuQf_jwc4A;@Ks>C
ziq+sN_Gy#DK%ppolP2_J$#%1AQ>Tsbk>@t94R{Jj84>z4xgU`0A6e0WRJZpO;?MSO
z^7Uy?^RNG$=w{MfvXRU+C;ed(!Ef%oyG|1D5$8cIOk|wN%z^zIs8u|w#_R-MGtyFB
z<54ktbZDJE`SA%sf-AyEFP$oP4UW)f{^xo!=>A~SG26q=&B6JW?N(h#zh{^q_&A6w
zrX-!_o(?xu5;&XO+4uh5?P@Y51@$Mb(t&K08<<UZBr6ZJtf%u~njG%l`V5#=K=2({
zCWCHgk!vV`M?|jAuBQ4cEsbkqJiy3W$@v9s<Lrk`=W=~L#$A5f9KdEkC5Y&ce%STA
zrm|1j@kjo)H3p4mAIfEH6UpgD8;n#M!zqWlIQ+QcxqYLrkWVpds9Cwa*sX}X2LwJY
z-dE4e%+kz!WckpD`*WfO)$tQg-G7!p1Cds8`t$%Y(|l4uieqVG_rk-AUGcCcqF;Xo
zm~UfhI2XG~DJ=X*`wE@c6Dm1n<?0%X%lka-v+6}P^iO0?NWOHxUC^a!Oi6*MY#UKk
zV@+prQ;Rj*8xYan==tlD@ASI{ISSFwfS{J=%Kzx+J)}x1hL_<HeY{;=TWA6qTi|~g
zLL)xt1<bVOX7{ur*GmO<tF*<%fKrnHpOijr0++>fWZRbwQ}T{#!2iv_05AVW?Td66
zhV8-B%wuynrM#Pw6jkJp0?R!9wy8BZAz*fK_(pCbk?$uHce{~2-6M%zGF3-Ua>Q>q
z@vgE$YNn<Qi?0V8OfkPe?7c${%xIt4vyOr+wJ(9u7=ZR<#Xj=0=^I~K7?4pziEp)!
z8JGyd+&{5aUy6r7)6(y>8SH3X8~9C`4QSR1@r-9~y%e=#+PQq(5->76edpn*>5<WX
z7+9R+yuv)sL2up*m-2vk(OAMOOMA3Y3yhfx{j9GM*lBxczu8UsBPfWHJftN!dmFD~
zBSCMYS-laehxS+T^ovnc6FW$o@%?`P!?&sk;rH;e;#K)ag^f|sye|ZD8|dNI-P*5V
zQh7!Xo0i#zeF$lG5~8g7L5-mJB^IkI8Kh@bYpeehWi@|zLb9QZ^2$9?_P|#>3NHK-
zb*iqGM{AO^6x@8-?35}D>s9NFU<!R&K2Q;f_Qvt!AFk*t=i>n#hl}Y_bJLkO>7kll
zzu_FzpJAJ`TB;OSoc`%IoYiBYz|1!DHzMMbG#e8(z220Vc~CI>F{6@R5ODoWHnN)`
zhh}Hz@>y$Z!h=42z*Rdd+FH(&sswiC^{g$z^CFSYFkww9e;}E8yWZsBgT&+MC?v=9
zPwlxu_Hr>!o<&X!v#dUio{7fY(iKmsytcTn;&-!y@J2xJ^1hc?6%1Bxb~|ovO_hnl
zNGT!JDo8=r;(HAk^hfT=|8Odp^D8aC`<!z^s%-4#=T-YF^8$hMXUUt4EqUv)-SLz^
zT}owuDAM9RKmVl312x!gcxBg+*?|W`3<sZ6{*!22dG=TAr+YaEPq3oLAlCxSqc5Je
zI>zuHeg*PQuvW`)s<&yQ<u$$b!$%Cai8b7ks^VPA6DEFb|1!Abiqi4;|2K=r{<^<R
z=JUlY+%MWg3OpT8VFy)aOwCW)>E52apAQdJF=PbF+-9pu4U&G+C`Oz0xwQ)QG-^}a
z49bgUkm0;4XT&)%@IO56RL?-o2j)RZoj6+X%pC83>=7?Ywfyzrg_Hpp*<7|M>8|8Z
zXsnn@s8iL6MR-NDZ>suSrkpR3s?UqvMg(TI{LQVlnHr2KN#K-8z~~P+(8tx=uGL9R
z_GVeBi$z|jp_DBZdu3cZMI4RGbbQg>VQ5ZUYXljyi?a_3_8m)<#OnlQ>Nfdnv|^Dr
zj@BRI-#>#kdYe8(K`rxh=*r1#C8{}D=m!vf;hV%zh1GWs63^rJDgnZzlWI@fdec(*
z;3=?BvC^6Snwiu|wOy_gQiF(|w5~QAQdX74U9s&jvnRT9Ma#$%w#uC}DysR9Eae1@
z-$wNu&LUw7p(c|OS6|56#vsbvxWpevlq|NZmzWTm8r|hFLqlTMLPNVTQKe7p)>c1T
zjBU}zI_|w(C-<|LZ*3jm5(7?VTj@VRnps-d*NCu|yfl5h${3)W5{x?KlJ0cYv#aux
z(0O~;e3Osh_>PkPv%Sh1Or?Xy1V&?8uZCAOMK#wyJ%k*cq0_!vf@Y&>7YS^hr*G<t
zoJ?NO_%^fx2oZbGCrw?W3xF+pN(g_^7;s?NM-cE4<kIbnZSEPkqf9ViBvLK()Z>Cl
z^RKeAeb0FtyTO3KNB0=D820dE+T9G85-XwAi+ZjJTzx5~Khmp30w3Oo^hEFgMg20R
zvW%YyLj*soPJbBk#?cB}r@5af*5O^rR8l;J2uPsNiiz2AP{j_EeFgq_ziJP43g%x+
zh_7<LO*YavO_Y2e&f*F4Cc%G{dT)|Jeats=zfwI`*JN8=Bd`$5gS4bu>}OcGuCOpv
zmsToQ)b@s9Hw>eHh`j&&pa1)i8kYt`KI-n&9{M)3x`$>hZGf){wc0!IU{F^yrn=SZ
z(6ip|C$Z0rILVQB@XtC<wK8(4Nr7EZL5GR~)ha_@l(mWY$Id}?SFL7-4>awdN)b8$
z_O`~&hZ(eq_df4x8>Gnml%{#Vl&(s}n##|{fXWmyoAyRo)^yJnIOHHPym9xTH@Olu
zDKfs}nBt(+^xSE*s@8oe%jcHFJ)l=OoSb3vb|~K45kjZ)gK}iQap*i5@5k&x-CYwg
z`6tIqN-62zr-->ULJ=B9?#(rif5YLd|NfA>y?~Sq=)TUrF8TTjG4MmoZTIEgMG`!I
z^YzOF94PZ*Ah#C%K+_L(*n-{R5R?EtNHPT{XD1ihh=vtmUN1S#5RX+|-WtRP3VbzM
zagl@P60@8$(vMohJLF8*0q&cRt1Mhv`82+mm((q=J$pnIpumcHzh@8f0^U<*OGcun
zzRtRa4cfJh?<0?>R<)g4Hjw+bHfopeZ3uDaZKJBziWf&SH9-!LTI0iOdkvY8Qmcs3
zR@@H>==)QJ1xZT!-qT^2Ah*Y{Q>-@$DLO5{lVTWSxJ!4;`u6<hr(E_|Qz^|swj%B6
z`-{Hd8)&T1sn`I~vk5t^RDw7wY&I0<eEG~p0z4~aH0p|fU(gVv@4;BVI=STm1f>eL
z{a!l$NeTK77g!ggf0#S{&UgBqK>T0HMESfu@}3!gm^10{ME>7t&uw`Aszjgj+^%BV
ziGR0L;{cl%2)Aw^=8-fFkS9`R9KD}1hbt8Mt!`8+EE{e)46kh2(|S220c{l{-st#D
zGat?<R|hM`)4g4V;PPFWWvi(Kr4=@mW4W-p2u7HnN=>S!7*wTx=VD5aM7yMg6{x?i
z{5AHXs^u!Z6gial+@*P(!(L^PaYR=JsmCJ+H{F_0&GKV+g2VNV%H*anVQ;m8Fl^@7
zqt0S_=9lHZ;-frZ5%yMMglM*9v~op#{m8bu<(al)dU@eIra|z;6h5BZ*1!&3>{7BI
zZ)rpp@S)S@m4TFaprofbj1m5R-=nIGmMR1x8zt*$7#~#$%gYVzUFubB1a0=i3Q#9`
z%cKmgsT}TRTmEwk0c}@r1^XKWxBMeG;?=)NyW80WEduyBrJt?u>F@bc^Yip#W5HC4
z)3cspRCzITML5g;W!{4;*%$gVoqViZj;w4rcSwF3?2(bGlorqFG(?>tmt%K-@fKEU
zPo<<#A$S&Me&29b=A8}`QI0pdQYCyB9!vbs#!^@VMCH}W<ymisu&)&78jgs~)VJt>
zC1k_O=D%EoOg8F2{=DdD`pNCwgPWm;VtU(~eWOxL<1VjFc}G>_64DqJ(5Wqa>Sbg8
z$k^P__*%o3hhRHTa?1F8!81Al@l~t(d!<xu-N>(wsIyiZUu2GTf#Y>5@4F7WI(>R0
zoFfheo(}`7aG2;efo;64gOrf%^flNfw^QLL%l}h&%hIvRiYx)er+YFiSAeUp3zsE_
zEq!2p)t7E!{k+l{&wYtWoC^|C@et1VYp3{8jL8-g>~ZYmk`fNq^f?=@<D^<BeLc7(
z@A=s`K;XDUCMMRm5e$K=I1PA2u|9FX+fp6H-Mb6(hG!?RB@a|mI|;;hJj)rsoPC*_
zS9IF?onh|8R_F-$<pI~pqv@t{BMy;l{~m7O*?-hfrY5@ThR<*C(Bo}H!i`im48mIO
zHpXE0b7PcKMLOPP(K6N`L+|rcy2SgCau!qkpZg!pf5X9v2%h&VCR<8;cVZwnak$&v
zC^225Z9e{(4NdTZp7AA3M%<kUc1!kDUMy7$^C4e62M|4v`Xq}sKSzPd)TZmz>mHjk
zrUt-HHQH7<&?NeGN$^sDK{cU|k<iqlLL-xeP}V%}*Npd0WFJG*CrE$N*>POn@+nJo
zDn2G=Djs9%Eo879SF$q^Z?UKFNOm~dVE5`~V|OY8kTBVcex!ba!2Pj2?Fm@=e6AbM
zSDqDsp7U;WYW8Y|L_-3~39RrFs=n=&3n#WK5U1O;i`GJ#gzq(!CcfNK+{>MIXFd$@
zDmThp3ZeI9cOaOd^q<LN6phM}l(F}h2Wt@R8c0_ekcTimW2vPh0jR2nN8E?Gh)oCR
zG5A(giTyG&C=$go^3i)~BNl2N7WWJ0FM{X>R1^7s!?|1RU;gwy(}%iaVje<^;Rn>W
z0!kkQ^fJq3K^v%$JP)|pLT=SLCeYM8%^@^rj~vAh+m3*s;oWf#etF6f?0g4jFc@A4
z&W7hi9Rd{PqroWZy`8;jdm?7c-yo52Sp2=Net`G&>W`DRCp5(X9}<>}*_Vd~7`Rlr
z#l!K;+?RG3@a_$4u34PA<8vrHemaR9l%Mo`%KKtgP+%=ujukemp(yXS?ssZXD-R&N
zTNjn3#j0%B&vIIZs%Uu<%~mvdRAH#Q=3qPgaD0w(Z8UPKU%)7pZX*J93Lur6@VTdi
z2f&m+aT}Q_actSUuL`Df29DJ;@pb#i1JL3P<Rp?qN{QrEDf3x%Fl_mkBuhu&G2OsZ
zTgl9ovq*Aw$Xx+n(!pv8kddqZX#M|(bKsxtp#L_l%G&w)KTN9x%A6*pw}0tea*>Vv
z#eQVc?!SCV@&TN#7_3j*d~7re)uJpN9V1g<rSyz&dih1Nx06kNZq%1J{YL^rW(?|x
zm#&(U+2rggo7F>w&PD3Wt;L63-~!30nFZVAZP>{|0NMIbNAWbY&bV46D^`DAjk846
zg)-7u<K(R}d!8YVij<75M6*<3LVEq#>!X>>&Drix-H6*1nY#Fu)GS{PE1GtOO-Qg&
zP*849@o%Uy%2c#BH#_;On8b;OX#~lb`z~+E``Hx9K^~QoAXP_$2eW>H62(d;9?@!u
zDZbm>EOFneFy#RQ5=tF??Y(0fpLB05Hy!Lh=6uf<&<M)dkc{5epXe01h*c;rT56&6
z(e&=5o*d5}_T`UTF#6nzINw;z-AC)KO;PfLm|rSaYV|`@2~yW<a2`5S8wq>WN(D8{
z6V1#@S*7VbbJ$7e=;_#t;9*G##Z#2stF%QU2^s9^@oX{!eqDHgRmUxQ<()YtiW6!-
zh3!qhuo+k+uJtmr85>>{-l!^jr+&Gi;928FLOcqFrI;PPsr>j=r|7jl)#3N%VYkGW
zo#WTeu!>D-!HulM<dkBeTVtLS=*NONODku4_8zr70;W1uE#2X-r|^4taJDPovdlsb
zxAOQO_e1Jf1_K3VeXN{Obud}$$+$#t{yfiNdGezx`bm_kB)i~l_v1}ELK3T#xTdfq
zMW5t2Px^P4zT7->i?u2&#Y-713AJPGpd(iI8>LrA5IB!5xwd_8Y3|e7#M>Qv{inB?
zcm1C@e^|faovR*0hZL-WTLYVqluxGCK$D~5x+07qau?{ZP<Xsf17Glguu!Fz*>aOS
zE_v&Nex2G)C2ckzh9wVq4;e;0qCLh76S~7x2U|b!#;+W9(+jC&nt%?4enHxf-Sll=
z4oil)?P=|s)|SZ@P4F>7vHo2$EL;Hq;ZW;Jpwb1-cvE{1if(D*07~P8xR*@(^h*h?
zk6w2$8(sQHo*XZ)*<Fg#;`=N7j5~E@Lu0v=kWUf$7oh@Vpuqhc50BOZL;Kb{1NMn;
zVn91_4P@IuUnN~HUs!OGpNO9Rjh;EnPCKbf+rTR2B%uaDN{=k@G3c&63+|?nZfm??
zcjmG=xZSPHm~wnv94kA#{V=tCf?|)&pW^2;3(<Xbabc2eBP3&2%qN35MB{4Xrwo?`
zxP7(bzFD96qHn9!fovA5rfF5eWznv2U4yW{4LqQ#^w;3{rMG&<Z5tZf*TBH%k!Rtl
zf~zWQ1zu4kn@l688~a5q#_I)#8hjLw`^_2@{6$i8b`C8Y%(>39g(h!0+e!9whl^I2
zDuJ1164G;H<thO=27M3js7U?{d?%?0nMYkA<Jz-_-)%#6%d3F_t_rzWSZoC7*Lf$l
zt#{L0>EOjghf@C9zJO4!TYxef`b_f*rK~kQ&sEAx5n4h!{D!mRY4LvYH=L0J{hv9G
zi^KMHOh*1_fkyrdF<$X-PWG0MazoMhjlo*ywFVd=0C%@esdvYSUbfrnr*G{~F=v9K
zu~Z8_E6t0OplpZN#tFJ&Byz2D+~lY>Mrv}Fm`E=&wG0XCl$;FiD}GYg2c2qaMyCWi
zq0fT7lYy}ksSS$omj0#IFRzOQ^=s&M=0C7s0ev1m1{7W1^1VNLp&qoU?nZm9ZU(6L
z(r-v_rymNUj)-j6?hv8|*22E=N<joKl_r|=UW6nXH+ZBt7&`fZL5+$o4zT@*4af5=
z-#V3QUgt>(+tq9sKU<G_p(>EXU>6n#N*zTXp~`Nak0+QD=x>kcL_^*pHj2cg17vd6
zlEb!T*OaP%M|+nVl;s>mr?#>PxAtI%y^e8|TmuuPD@(>SRpbGywMxMI+X>J6MxF28
zI239N&S;er>!idr7g4IC?_|MMQ;v;YO`on=iWhIH69&_^_}1avYBHZ}eRsB0-fVGB
zrP?zPyEx#GG-zrpv3Qr_!@c|MEt=9|>t?@FqvZq)?JgD95ZIYb8r@K9E?VB{i+P?8
z$FcCaB>M>b*8R0@BAH#~fs>R^=eSe$z|U_A-zN%zN2(UKPUf(6snFm14}Ysmf3$=*
zVX_RU%I<luhty1Sk^8;*@-{3WM0&fTMx@EJRR6sC&Pc4Qz;xaNBsZyhF(svbQ3yy8
zHA%L&eeMnWnsm@Wb24&k1!xLbIvCLa1OV|QO3tzY64xO;;?0p)LarN8Fd|$P;+-p~
zGCre&qOeM#(Trz+I$n=c=mD}37HRnj!UffETD8TO7+72hDh7*AXK4pe6BCNu6_U6t
z()(0kQeg++Oc3!ENRD4J>bo=hx{QXlu2sh=yP%u%p<lIl4O@UOPuer~llu1vZk^#<
z>Be6j$m=HS9O)AlK7XgY9XB5~l8azJC1HB0CyhyTn?a8OT?1pko;&5--V?IyEKHEO
z<Kl9cWi+L_dJ*t>6<a>jJIqhkFq6b`{c_$_m2RE5sP~-0kZ;<d3m~imnv(G|*P0ST
z(NaZ~$sfxThNpe!sr)*k8VlUwybES(6wX2j!Trkm{?_d4m7Gxq&wQ#qzl(^1qo9$W
z`iEG`OXo@D-n$CiCHIK7oJ=F7TsBJ^az<Ck5}wkCoA6WgSGwO>m-5(36;fy<ZxtF(
zrS=nhtq;vgTwHXz`o4XUx#e<`=$aemWy@!X95iK;`y#*O?3B)|vjSzm|0Cmt9ntQ3
zu8^TKy7e%5y6!BnD#5Tt2?QVd_`u0hjFrErA39X|c8e@XxuV_6asO&jw&=~?kpEWE
z$b|X}R(0__N_ie)fQHh&f+i8)rsUb=tp;k4=&r^TFRPbI4|10CW=D_g<);kcsgkFv
zG1eQ>bQU@8#oO*zWad&~2U%(d!i!5#P^<MdgUZpo$=3xC`7Pb$hjeY{r;Gw(HZbE&
zuk+^U0Lsj-TGUNGF@vauBYF#c6QSHJ-YcY|HaBD{G<{yHYhJpEGhVI{xhPHSDz?a`
zePMJXWR~Xh{rR;5Fk;`<&J$U(^Y$7xhgmNxtLFzq^(CA@+rqBCGuP?>>m`2g-2M|x
z{j>JYZ*@QQ`iiA|y)(Dp?pXIaZrJW5;Ll(>9<xkT8FyZ1^b=ic?oA<E!YTvCjrDKJ
z_gnPlO(jCv)dd&=s-%niRUgaV6^y!<v$!6|#jUc(PKpn#al{;@oRzdC*0XtKlybg&
z!&Fq#RCZQJ0?&A&=&@-fcn^eEkIhmp6&?6l!q-b3YqZn;qG;QwAudZ(ouYV`a2Rqy
z)sYy`XvVz&QduKn>?O|UB?G|rLz;w{tY4@BCr)`qB0f@L038xgu$p@nOBuKKf}ysC
zPV4N4%spLf{|W~IZ8xhv_kBV?Vph2Q8f_xzU}rM6tpr-kOS@K}Y(G0wVe65_**G2L
z`MG;wf+G0Z8rh5n))}4sc)&XpMdSG9CS9PI11M{(FV0(b$W8#$3+ofjmmmYcA*%N2
zs!Zsyo=ALfi?Szv<I`_TYD7mJ^WFx(;b<#Zv3qj7Jh#<Ex0jiprB&oOy}7b^-#{`G
zJ!YJRJD}PouA6VHA{V77K$)<BbrL6E*2`-a8Nd05C7*|-W1W>+eRn#~3qR>oB51Ey
zXp7K2VhtrpJ=eqkl78XZ@cgOk%Fq?D&vW|?hx-P8Yg;ZLY%U-^@tX>A*dE0>C-p}f
zGePFU7?p|U{?ZNVp!^_az<x^2_#ODi!+>-{fEtV`$b}jo9_$JYO9`7cABVK)ye=}F
zuNF_HWpddp?hVKARlDDz1rg(dC3R()MR0EUz(C>_u6adU^HS-WU7b4dZVTsy=eeE9
zRZmWxPMDKhJIS6P?%abDgsc_wk`rWex$Po_xHpfLGOTUA3uu9r{*2#Xi+Q8ISPxc+
z3m=V?C3MnpF2y0s-bIllo?G?xhOIX*;#CzF;?)MyOnyj<q$=CnoO~_9>6*m5SAp9C
zO_R0^>B;Bg*5XmQd3BfP#L2qmP<U(>AXVp7(}a%9Y7t0VW7!TWA{j8+#X0w#egn`h
z;*@Lt3Q)W8k$w9^cxq;wMMR05DZA3yBBSA_Vs%lOZjI6F?FZjftrGMblt4~uYwfdM
zOkS2_6gAg8dpvlo%F=e1EwbA7^2FNgj0Cyfzg)_yKi!lFhMwuF29EKcyjprAGTzED
zcPO1<xY34AWm*&4AQ!TFXkC7XFKS*MDGEz1u*b@8z3<6xNv8H6{Ty!PXdN~keaaNP
zHULT?0nN)wzqCR~zsIX_k2g>#FZH`s4pfcU)F6iXO8$nE7fGbYJ+;0T_FVvLehc2a
zHFc5aOiw<uKBS`(J$Xx9XxJUA^gaF1k5idg1web*zx2KBwv`>mF_OG<`2Z<ev(5c%
zkzm&F%VFPzUjavSi=QTHVTFit8LBD%eAK-vXZZ$dG8|CoKGIs>XgBS-EXXSOJt?xq
zi@rPf9=QoflY^PAj~?B05Sho&`oN^itfzIvoG~|0^!i6UcnP91lqJ>(Jx4FIHUIjs
z_w7x~s;j;(8m96aj=ft|%mJC;yfTqJiWTP-2OAE_)XwlT%kgVp>AcCL*1>tkD%2>j
zQ3MFrt)a6j+kkmzF3eIO!6d(aHF%43ivd-nquXjI)wx_09_t4lsatLZCZg?{s#kC7
z7f-qHKRq2kmi-N<+?(y#CZGOEv*Jy_glFq~ON&&47g1TtQbi<!`+aR&lE(M-Q1P}@
zoAZ%=VISmCc?UQauUdovl?K`^RhA)AVQ1$cCkTOQ^4IGWvvSF4g@+^9h<^{QF*9p~
zFsBxe*H4_%l`PC_cRP3Il^APU*`;>+Xb<|gJRF5I?mJ!9ZW`4*{+^ZPYQZW%XN5BI
zcmR?eOr#W0`uVt}#zV2f*2GKDu3c>+rCnfSJb>-M?2csm?XUQWk9mgnkW3}#JxN9$
z>a`+7tW#|a{Kz_*=b==gRARXuE%B|jW|<O2m<fLS9-jWs-C|88tDMB%r7mTF;-wAE
zJL@%cmGlA4=w|)YqjgU6xOpcYQK<dFu=7xf@TsJPEiDJRI^()c=dUR18?qNaMrLBM
zgS$gK)L{)U7^GJAAyky2Y12^ECTikh@lN}Fk}u<iG(&MboEmF&5inhm!I<wy%wogd
zj;FSnFKmyulqQ4|pPRfxRm=Hp&Uy{X62H&|)qXzd(KWqDn?T0@Y_sI&ITu~8>oQe2
z>U^Pgoy8^x)CwfzIV}4!m6N@<y^X=InmY<{u*y%mhX~>tIDz&vMGcs(H$5NA4XVRJ
zZ5{`d1CpVnp(p(_M90Btok*04th@&eD(H`3iMVTbT+<smE^aA@F>SCnvCa6l;NDVl
z?Zq_M-|M;t59%o14M3Hadj<+qPadV1U(DINLbk>FlDC9Mgqmg_DFF3fayboZFMN>M
zDl(OdkMBA69z%!0m)WC1u$Uo%{Dorow~$X~(VHKj$Q3c_L~=ImBs@xzC?SeZGYWyZ
z`yDxDb4K65)U5+Aet2%?BKYjPK%Z#{<%FBD&^-UWa_b(M_!D&uYsdAy(EP(4jT2b>
zglNuq;*%O3UjxM%b(fUb!ABC$X406<tnBsQx*;pABd1#Z=VD&Z+^Y(AVI$;pUnx#f
zP%RGuvQgT%6#zkXul{~q!++1+{6F^1^*MIu@lNg2?OPO_OzGmvGwz5Aq~9wDP1#_X
zG2^<sZPPhnq1s-t>@E*5J{WcyM$?MKgnMDFPv5Bwy5)+F3P5WrsTZHW=bo)ZF574F
zuX7K}lxUUHG=gXriqT21v{At_1RMTab`M)2V?G1XS(-#eUy(7O`D=ehd-)IoW=S%A
zvk7QA<;KW!v)UZ->NbOxUvUdNIc8;^7Uhi7nMNyy=42C?EmeVe#_5m&%V+}sSIg=-
zdl0c2!F7>gA-6<v@d<Gm%t?v9B9KNb;w~4p3?)#Ro1J;w{961soWL&^NN0nc^TPp6
z;xUr9HhyOITAS@Ncb_^4UrI{vUwOj><E<5VgqDkb<n0D2e${GEJ^-j4JXbF~D%~ta
zDC1diQi*#fcof+GhJ)WfHBpsN^|$9d1^)TszRn!G(N-tFgcF?aNsl}Fl%G}B&X`J!
zn@5@L-RdU_t;*a!NV=4i7g}T5IO8fkRe+yXp=|(us!plZE6yL!XI05XgmVNC8>r3z
z;^7HfE#$lq=<%DOhn*9jp&wA{(IMnbz$B1f)jN$X#qi>|4Hrg0zhhzV8EMOt*{sD2
z$Z+`6gF*N3$MSq=<k_uQ6*-edi}<8$7_L~4yLj}0+`RO*<?AwgpNmP3$7(hs;-3B7
ztnx^fq{7_x1t^kM4<Q#<p~$cP_*-))$Ch6yp;%dC-1!T7&X;nvW)C~t16sj=;<B#^
z{Ir}V#uFbTKB8`og%hNNDr;!mQYjCR7q$TBImSvVLw3gXcVF67t}uMSS}X@napjuj
z=eA_b@Bs$b!g&VC`Kne=&DDktdEB6yqPyHc-7urRi_&_BUlmi6>`LgJ0qB+@MMm?&
zquk$c8VXbv-3k|F$u}r<+KLZTX3c5UX;Hen{Rw>yUrk1G>jfwEMRkrSACPeq;dJcT
z#i5W(-t0-qL(z|0rMSpNP*QQNWd)j9kWRA|v%{1%we0>@(MQh0>((auoa_iLiEPn(
zxq7LAW0`~0ms<T3yOWp7Eit6etog6^+67(brO3Z=%e7d+zxR-E9Y?SCwg{JW$iFx7
zyLe+}2<nCiPl%-L_Or8lkSj&AxU4ylDudr$2e&i!crxx_X_BvPy$Q;aQaLO`Lq6_H
ziiT)!ddLZ-wq~w7aNGL(GEj>(dA<AMA%L<@-*Hnhc4Rth4z%qCi)hqFh&3hUtnaN=
zUb_Birt^m})_-9-Wude;1+8i~c~_bX<*EOgZOJ&f{{_a)Wc>x;;r><1R|hk_(+8c9
zA(GYRO!`nU`xo9o%DeDp>M3rNcq&V1#MQLRhClrF$-LR(#&QE<>zMDXW52n&Nk1h?
zR(r88=??A&H3FGi2~h{fRyrgy3xv<sb(4}pY8byqbF<$QyW^=}S8hF=r;3eOV07)G
zLa2Jm7waL<e>Q5Sa^DfJ+el@Hs;aEj#LgpWsaKtWdKHq2+>JYlZkgexdGhs_Y|H4x
z$Ex~i57gS(=oFraU&|c5k!2CC3N6a5VPFQLrenb&<g-q1mYow8yldylP?%eIATfQt
zK<9&7NKL)A)E;pl@prdC=iy&JG~To;=sT%kcgTw8T7QZL{{a7gc!WJPk;^uO;PYsI
zD3=s&d9b5MNyG>>HW7StmXPj8?6^HE#6o@Pyy_XZV?6S!*kv0P^c8C-$8!X>0Rr+7
z+!h8b|4V=1Z_R@Le6g}P=|}M%9Pq?#+7~?b+JQ)|TAthlmNqRUA1z;wPkukaHZh$M
z&^C5l`kd_X`_Zj{w3X>z5@uP}Pv5Jtk+E`pPn8VlhbsfB{W33XD}@+`Wq$bOv^b8Z
ze<HRnN!xnXp&g35IfNg@o1%N9FOyvV(>7qd@oM!PWBS>LM+I11r+A{*m+=v2y^6jH
z30`m0kkA_2RuG5h>ic*+cl1)-N}Z-S_e_Gbnj5h`5lN!UT=FjXIK=KTJu#;^>)5JO
zudH*2=Zk+Zawr}-i<fP6&dbcuF9qyNnil<XE4~vFt5rQ;%FbY2_yBllz)7(#lB-@I
z1r`-@6XvdC604hgPFVX@gaLkjq}nv}(PvC@SJYK`znliXD<_)%Xio{@0Zb$dG^5pZ
zHwLBhHvQ+rO$d`PN`K?<yC}e(1f-u%&%%eLB4d}NgqZ8&TKAF6sMn_HZ2c*$0~`{E
z%G^A-Y`AP5EV!SqH)ak~nK0w2)@D6WMELdkhl`3~*=`AMlD|%qu{x2zR$(mPjAH&Z
zQ!df_(@g`nc`WbM#Y0QWACwMm#t`C*yRR>VUwnMrC`kBMp5({fJ(L7ZdW$(f|E)Fo
znDtSva}I9yY5%_vE3uI;<!eT0rN{jy(5uUyx8oS+m|$jsG$l!#XM4%!w)_v!kOKAT
z$_M;a`6s4#m7yzhj(pbGdX<w?^rCX4MdRI^=Y$7y#v3fcelNQ3wX}ncc3^<Yu*2E_
z4>WNEd{VklzLhpDr>akzMGgS&5p)EE$~puM*YXj%EpA)mXAjKg8$Z%j)d+Ctr!>L(
zY)wgf3y!l}g?HjVeY3B7{=qYMnM3b;)eG)3rMRI)$@*|sR4TVpKcR{FdH`*eqiP4k
zQg+k4A$;E9^?-U>S3hU)?S41YQ3nXW6DkIEkmBl%0q|8-)g%{zDv8GJhX_LuHazp(
zVuM(#)2N5w_dk8V6JDhHm9AsTMQzjc#Tb8p6@xsm<Ue!2e_I2hx%fHOkC*N-j@%X>
zcu5@7H>Eu4O!CF}V8D^%GUTgx$`ruX!eW2>+pwug#Wg(JWKqGA+h<eiM~lZdz@GW)
z+AZ|VXSA1z2a&2JXULj^HPB#Iuw9rQf`XI}3<A>c5B2dnCgZue`MiN640HdF*y?XM
z;Xhnx2RPIZQzJRL(<=lw0L5>Wo-O!r`Y^i1g$g{Ma^=wm;+t5#H{4H9bse?~bJFd@
zuT!(3Tn4^>N`)K~fOesE{}-+d&Odj$|Ga$N3E%x|0>)#lwOA4``lIwvi!P0>_e<TL
z$0sFMl~`;0!-!7ltv!~*MDAVysnQ;?f!_*RS-t!ln&z6RQN^U(k-hl!@CG(A&!yLg
z{w!w2!7@&~d?=XWm0Vo$o$|P+(q*@eG+%%VZ=SqSlX^Wq*ihYT@pgBdQH;YrBZ93@
z+b<a8)(<@%u_F)o%UP7*yNG-BdDQogEysHj;{XVI)0||NuA-uUs;S>!RO(cCZ5wr;
z(-;$3i^Yecxs7R(ipx2%u<}hiw~PWRZRAW5p0ttkq69L=&S!1CA=I|QnM+lLwWt43
zuFh?!%9sdBN%@?s;NUa{+9e&nBbuC&h(@OR>w9UClZ)zkA`$buY4zx)1f8qW@fty!
z>;(?^%eUO3S}X}gz>74@ynDHWYF3}bhYkAUnt{uidQ?*m-Q)LH(m|y|Z!Rd;jIewK
z)*Vns0RZ}%NClM00s!~C<3^RwDr;}yY#Lym*qk%j4}Ia@<cI9H3tV5(SLjE)Xd6}s
z_-#pAY>N${+tO_mZ><lGnk%>q1x2<T2&Fz4novFch%g7)<fgW$XXG~O2UPs<Nyvo<
z=$`qkJ?m{4`VOt`duWquE`2gTIyQ<19Sc#XIM}rc)y5$>y=M+~C>CrB7l>DbW!3<f
z<N&Dgg7Yl<snC>tP&Y#s1egjurz%&X^xnb*c|FVvDfFt)vgaH11*KjTHvPVc3s@{U
z={Eo6(DQGvAhzI8i(8lU``-!=E+RITPzi<qcuN7x9T?7kUe+aw&|J=n;Qvne`6C_P
z=LJeNUwkG7bH6b_<<Znnn4e>YMm;^yQmiE@G$?fm-zA&!E=9jBCw0cZq=?%L(gArz
zu_g&a@P+g+!qU(jt+bC|S@~*0E(E}P1HMkY6Dc;U_y<)#2%Fb-1QEE^zvfj0%}L(6
zA3({TL=S4g4Q~6kI4b$AM_w5Crc`&pX|R#`vk>xJ!?FlOr5iu?Wm$Vc()Bj(+I9s3
ziB9+AomYLk|EWfkgC}94QUBYsA8Xi1ov0eEpGm9{4z~@MRFfGW87Qss@w^^Me!n)`
zmPF(pT#UP|^Wj+X*^~gqLQdz|)x3d9Yv)#-SEG+DA}G};^Y5mK{r~)D3{P4weWZ5T
z4u3W(YXns3D{v7Ni>4UZ#oa`|3SPc9uCK}L?{Ez2&5~EYm8A^C`JlW3ps{X`W>n_V
zdO#?2GBS%LCm_lVQV-%_S=+RA&V5o0XN%{YCX3(r>0H_Rf!T&~w{(kw0e&QNLw1By
z5zU{sQ(5L=U5zvO4R|CPVnIhj?`r~L_IY_(4n64Yr~Om9wJr40*T)|;H?L#vTK1HE
z7A!2m09CeRu#DV}bj1iBiWLMk^-3D;SmgZg6cx<hE89tPve6FKLn6PN3lUenY^TZ`
z$fL`V?Hgr>pcg;d*0F541qeA+YB2z6GBB!rP&56neemC~*X_-vlp+I#*3Lv)zw}09
ztE|SX1edV(rLsMX(`l2IA7^%7Ra=YvOWiALnBcdkoSowLoh=i@3^4!R82?A5?LBx@
z#n~<|HX1)+o1TJAzrfcliSPT|6!0{9+}%<l!en{bB<2SSLl5CYC&AfY;r1Ks{-wii
z5#BbKqr>e%_z6chxB$M50x26MtUzP|ToM&hN{nRsq@<v;{q_gPlU{E#3w)EyW@FcD
zoRyl;r-Q&t8Y=m6kcOO#2wqT;j4{*MQMfbNn!qjZb#y1U4??m8ySGKtf$$=~F>9M<
zjyg7*v=)}~=;voZeVyI~%yfTO)eeTw$=wV2fOGf$=kr<N@C<s(9VfpQ*JD~;HV`Xz
z^6%{2mpfTq#l`ws2?0zFro>rXJb|)Y@X@D*mt)IZP}>e?^m!%asyAvr7m^h*aYxDQ
zm-^j)AXTT~{ocyq8atYHl}036ke{|YblG&r<=~yMJl~nO+`@y8(4IS2w|GqInD|N?
zkO`+{=N=^-Yscbye9=7b5|Y(e8%gdB;+_VxlN(C9$#}k!rMvwob@(QaUD`co0%I*9
zKvr?dPuL+Jy9`Lcd<$vwIXu?zPo3Z*lP(k?KQoYfbQS<GT;>@)iQbNx>pALV=m>i_
zzH|EXs>Z-XzH9-?s?skimA?@b5LosfPIPI2M5!0u?y&vuOXTTy+0mC5qBRZFtu=#L
za@nd8EJ&8{-1p?qvBJ0K6YeTsy?oWY=iBNxDh3uRmznP|xbKMbjf#v<IB$y{Mf=wt
zOy~TKN{**pzoDej96rhPFf-bxM-!@nE~^{@FCD$2BpT?&)AiD6lK}gneoxj({W%!A
zqhw)TR&O$My%<lu&|v!;j@?(jJdh#7E=Z2LIcMZ{#)JOyncvytSW-)rjy2*@q0<QD
z=>l|S>?a~^3Z15f3Y|~{6?|gup2p_n6>@wXR)RJSwhcC+&pZtiC)(-?DNCskqQr|l
z5?|?Xe3m900{+545B~cm^Y^R2DE<Ctx+e9iOH$K&bJ&8d6%s|wkruq{lGs4UVl|76
zelT#x@E7J38znh@E3ha9i&R02T2`SYBvhSDT~GDGg|V^&D5yQx;?N+HKdDBo*XgT$
zcA2Z*gL{+ja8-=uqS?5$MA_F+3Hv8tM~&x{huvPn*o@zuyXB!K5C`La$fs={jlCF^
zk4#0>onzvzW|4d!Z;EG17Wv(11uUyjCJx>!1O@CcN_g-s6-m)d7L`9epK+-%guk{O
zJO}J+MJNnR7S<^xV4<;U;dSdHe6sBK!v*ti`6QcXiBH{kzVK1p>b|ppJk1Sx`YbnE
zLs*e2?wA;)oBHaQu20W@Hq+DN=yO&?uDiE^pWxC>_(r5^9IPa5Vhj~Z3`|<<!y^)v
z(mTj^-@~|mzIp!mF{I0}(PlV+?2y%|$<<4zj~Iu8g;Il3!0jb5*`JU2k%{5dr8-B^
z=Hda3o*6qTw2J#Rnc!_9-cxLmp2uO=pn;m&$>I^tigqw+Fw*wSwIR&S^5%*(S!8ox
zB{*VC;9eamq2C?cDw?2Gy$`xi=T=mnw42;Uky|J5T-!`9|HyT-{n1DNXj}sZIS4KP
z_n1;wj90Kn6_-;J-V`>b)KpaKz8_gnWjl;|JQ%cqzIP(Kg%>PZh51x3^JdmQ8WKlj
z1K_r%+YXN-87lf`)&1I{SR>jx>+w8kX9=onmid|aw%Q5-LSoTKl&;!Z#Eu?4Ah2!K
zqF86jzjG>8R^3hhNCL#sIaW|A7cEIly5g$+rCSOBs`W^HokQOz^iG7+(D>1SPj&L0
zCPm7+?D&0V(P1|e{^154U-cWNi7QL~MvmBUm1Gw2bUmR`(5|_E(^`vZIX+vYY>#Cb
z2ZrRQXOrm@Prx<n6*iI_g`A598T*t{v_*uM!BRfT#Qm)H-8*mK)7VOy*l8<j?;_aw
zEZ#UB&f3TXq$>0ePO(6emO9Zyi#Rl#xZ5|z*6+B=t<@P@qgWZrAjI07_`PE6*=4gw
z_VlLUpW=%-ngSC9a}x#=jUB0oQcxXCK<sd>j_5N}{&1^N>Fyj)#C=uPPkoI89u4CA
z2=~@lcLcjrkr?sqM5EQNcF4Sjb*rm-*B5cfz<}%6f`kbZAP1kEiWX~2hubabla1pr
za#L^gM7907b?Y;{QEwfPMJSpi43va|?RjevlLB3e*WcYnx6OUoDnO}&4@#fRTsQ@P
zw(n7mETz-A+di@G&U+74c8780Jm$l5r!2Dx7bDe!!fkQUw+q|3(f5!P>s5zQv@jx^
zP$D{(u&(yx1}Ukf6f<8A%=2S2>*ANbPgN&kKcvN~EOmtjiw-b0t)a#})tWp3h!Va{
zj{6X@55NUm9$<G2)QRyP5s%TzvzVXYpKzYvaQME)Hoep-SL5h)diiGEjNL_+oYUKx
zRaPmOB>~efuyJ6FS7K-w0&Z%mj34&AiWl!Emo=u;l@A8soQPrB<TH+B74{iU9pVzP
z6qD3f(BgJRj&h`cz*>eF`wFxxR0TU??6f{zore^Zdy1Z{FX{=)Ly@~+0gQ=tgK!dU
zXM2k`H;_}RD8j+f??K=^y)M<z`w{_2-O8t==^Dz}NtS%RZIZVfEI;!#eD`pYnUIE;
zZ0`E%iZ^wZ8E;=V$+RxzuP84p56FJ(6{u$RY{4f-Y-#O2Z$U-e2_?UqbW;7g=E4#>
z<ymQZ%f^W6t>^K5Uq?bd$ErKG=b)s(q}n+ZP28>)g~CVqn6)m`bZhQN&=;S{)FzqU
z<CDyOf$~4ZOuxTGEcdWSVUC=m$&(3Bh|J<H+kO3gFH>K3uT5nCG0m#Pu6>=Cmd5cW
z1`Gk>gWP|jc0X2-Fp97eYT-4G9LedYCbter3^0OU*nIJXp>}DGwBNmJeBjf!*6VA$
z5KoOYw1Nm~>=F;GNvNw=u0@^zT@@7t$jNZ&Q*9>P&f{C&w2m!7h&|K<F%wk5YhJp#
zA)`^eCrGnP>ludBHR}<+-WzMr6*m{BX%|z^&1_2m(A$~fLvpBt5_nw1^T{(`MG^ex
zv6X45-v<?s#ct;+vjqC?PFs{N>Nm&bfHkr}_MFrFo%aKLT}mdxo9a64X1@;c)oXmQ
zG^!eBh`z-mLT`^B%v6fXwK|{af>+|p{88@4L7wQg7N708J(8g%4Iij7Sy9x<p*KxB
z>7r<>Vw#HE$aZDqB9;QA7unI*0n#B-5~>R6m8>Of$?G3sYPJ~IT9$kTDDu=^F3T+_
zWF<*S`oV-}UYVokff0kY{f?74>W3XH6mmjUb|k_9mLrKKR6m4s)rfT|p5xBgo7QMR
z*g&SNVCAyOi}}r^i779(EZ&t36@`=hd!`22AQ7)L0gbN&<ShC}HrE};e(g)BpZ{Nb
z*B#YVmd1nVAdG-?6#@dGM4F0HLhnV9lF$N*h$t=ejwphNs1(6~LkTqkk^n-e(ixg4
zy@k*uNQ;!v1;ovqnE`fp_MDxwGqY#U`rj`(_xJ97-@EVoedpc#-EWJnm<6kC-Pl^9
zEum@Vb8pU1-e|&K@;PP0&C+`+*?;_ANl8f%@>iTE;wN{z#4(Krx4L!$t*+R~_P6~=
zGZOD2TIY(<vCleOE~^_G27?)SRK*6#M84|y4^Di26;Xh2%f#IpEos6+?}gYg=byOV
zdTmjsf<zcxD^ybO(a%D)RBy8Ddw<Smc%nOPrLXWTa7h$3zXF||E|jP~5<61uK%L%Q
zKG4%~)9TLmLX@P#Ex%7s7VqEOa7hT7!R2|auHZSw4z(_fT~tH`@NJKqD-fnqAz~uQ
zf%5Ab8?}W2rSJcjJK_5>ke~&3)Z?+o+1X;HS>H=Yc<ZaIolWB59N-T%;i0LX8Qbij
zZ1LS$bGd~`w26ru8XjUppK*~xmpiBsJL0j|tgg^U1}>kbM1JMuPBxyp#R}<N$*%x{
zl7c+<cE&xT(wCx@zOpS>Cy&KvG}{^-ktu&iu)1uA$Z-lWB6x@58f53e4$;Tf@hFg(
zioICocW;ACpJuKo!bzj-iA<|ehWBn4FBhNfA0kkqPxIN<QvrsgG8RN39V<z2W?A(y
zj1>hwy#g4J-TH3f+-g7mOR2~g&+iEJJvS7e%}IP(uQov)xK7T&RtGUnb>>3W;C!3D
zC1RbVndWfwMV=(^7PZcZn+~rK?<kix(K3W`n-^SX$0$dGZ=|3q>OHmG5@4)}#RbRR
z857-W2CfFphuA!rp8ffbgR*xS1G{R-DZBX3v*Q~hoL>PaDM_g*C~R|2h)v3!M@mED
zcRUZ6=&vP^(m%C1!X0nG1K(2>KjJ9&PX~ooY~c~ihGkQ%L0r%v6iu9rsmFowl{eu^
zeFRBB4SoX$1uf@f_h@FIpJ_OFbcBjO$bc&-Rf&7w(6}YsU{t36lWm23Bv!vu+AZp3
zNymJ-6)EcgPL(?Fi2n*ku^3)_M9K>n;lkdKi5;*jN<_4N4||b~ID$(JK99_egvs0}
zpFS|c9Paio_mYm{<GrV#hC^wVYPz>Gjk_qjILjmYvLo}}9%?cA|Meq(s7EYj85%+9
zZK%F4)hKMJl0oB&=q|l-MC)4WBFiRxOJ)GiMRHVRvC_Zkw1e@hqZK_&Yl3+_5RLUk
zX+b`V)2ctXGf(p3z>Tut4R(x}6|CN{(w7&I#PT#FbB(^|Hb(&eDODo##7<dJ9>b^*
zu6T?RMx$(-IfXpMaI7|*sltGBP{uti$z|9meUGfiwZ?yMj=$AnU-*(3E{Cp%6oo{+
zb7Zy`Er|2JP~o9Zx)j)E=zsucU@Hu24oRN-l;5JGK9J~{<D8$tiH+%+iSb3LF9A%Z
zZ4<mdHPuu)gxY(rh8EsrC%zht@0>vE=)Qf5eBhhIE9B|{VoADA7iE8CMvOZ*?a7^f
zI3*W{4sM08EvVzM4@sUx<;ep5I%s|NOwyO$Kg9v-gZnj*^^{^8q>Qu9xVyzuD#4gS
z_7yH=PY)?8-(B{Wq<vM~mpA2q#W4V~BipO@R55F>?_L@Wv`7A)xpMY3l&Z_2XhU#I
z2|>j7Qlf>5ls!&g%XXwteZ_n(VnEI_?xSkFul>xTlzaT~EcEki?)sw_j->s@(g0`j
z{!-S(mj~9klsy9a>(>qa-n6~3T)kR-86O3nWt0dI7t<2ZiZaLO(?mSo3Msi;(|q;H
za~jbl-@%S-x!a^2&pqVTJFD#8vDZwWCiwtC$fVXA6yIHsGfo!IeQaQonn9wU+e!{{
z($mq6O-In_w$Ew93o-`foi9GaTv+RalS%KZ8z7VMaMf#L-a-KtZ!HX<;IW4HW$DT-
za+R(8NUaGwQX%pDb^@^9GCJc8%Q;SmA+j6YY&7%S!x`;5BOUl--^hzWP7@o7PS)8k
zo@IzJh^2*@R;E%dZw`wP>Nak?`M{&xk6o4y_CY3jf1c}8=_+mca_S?ce2KbIZFzAG
zP;)&~Y$6L_RBM`ourd)A@&T$AU2u-7Cgk^r37XS!TlWKve}r_0hzf%34Lz#5Z)ct!
z2c<4dCXJh@{4l=qI>o@dV_<W3ocs$S<#Y#qL@{!nT%&RNaxZcpRU`{DnC~_F^9a8V
ziPVU_@1)XM*#D%c?6_+oGJ7FKBBH(m6J4z3B^JYOpz4ZoYi5v<*=Z^ZUezqzI#D(x
zy57ECnllNxVL1{RHi<dz&h=FKQUG4&8mq7SM`dS_kD`;UuD(`=nDESV_L;YpQ;gI^
zSK!?~|4k()s4$Q6dJ@K#+V7e)mgt5>G;3Lnmg@w<9nnTN<#(EyNphu{aU=&d05TL<
zi*$7r;Exs(tQ_uwgj$O=7M$S<>r9apSjBt=EP=u-O*LIBqu4BJj7GW7afM#z^xjU9
z5*-()qIWPm9Bc&hjkM`7CDjpa6jSF@^2z;+w%+C@&s;6ysI9F>L&1+=U1RW5v=%i`
zqgWzSq!8#>v?TO#i|p-?rlvp@f|3<6YY*jR=~Bn}$~)ce1s1LCLiW*|XX>9q*ijhX
zer;kQE|)g1mnPqf7N(kCG&RX?>OqK9&U&d{mR&LIDJebifJp0QPa^}And$4RQ}<sz
ztWZUHk?MmYSnLepKCu<Wzz;+6&U}@zl&ggZNYJ0O6D<pR00LVY$LLVb?qyuU@_A~O
zxVz}_4RZ(#+S$oiJd87UI-3c`jzeG&<NIs!7lYG%`^~yay>uw`&cQFDa%e-2mUH>V
z%$eXVL&E4ZcV|s|-y&;o9_!>Z_EGwz$7>7c>!iMW2Px9Hw&Tn;BZu-n?`QXufAGq7
z(Hu=kXj}G7n7YU``D!kxY;sH++I&ag5|tVBkyW2AgU6s`501XtHdg~b-_y->=7J`{
zi^_uVn7VyBpQ}h&Ri0Z)a*hGN^%Vd-0KFgvTt$12xn~azK+#lf2ihHge*k6rmudA=
zFRdek3_qH~k1sqfDnTcKzz#>Ql}0pGe>p8BNM+c?{#3vsb5R5^eL_(hf}dxv^G?jg
z#yeiDhJ`yx5fJidO_-+Z!g2*n24eVpn$A&3X8c@22;l<TE=ZOZnK@~hE^<fq$VWBZ
zq(D6|trutRQK;P<Gz?9SlBYYQ#!^nQ(JP3v>hg}~MgYn%**umJ3lzJjtPA>_OBWN$
zJgLc=f5MOAPG3Rzja(GFKcQ!Z8O31}B(pMH=^)&Ox~kHZ;ON3|IP)ez8#I7X0Q&2-
zhBd{(ZpsN{T~A(D+Eisx80e1;-F)*do1fk#Qb36IWU3U3QSQIyy?%A0|KuNk9a3c<
zr4q{P3yX_(Pn2hNc47G(1LQJO(>z{IjXCWN9SOajg{wBSId=mb)kTM6*gw!ZeLQ1E
z?o0<UHOdRqV^GuB2pLppGMfXUry{LUeIfMN(kSU9WjU&;R!Yzyl=6Ck&Fhc;B2($7
z7@->pe12hXq|;O%EF@!l&+^70kL3p3Ycl7GF>LTn>W4)DeLOkLyK)^QKTfIyTRx>n
z_p!Tyf~IEPMrSF$grzk+)Tym2*7ulde2x}?oa#-F4F$kl{l+&(;a~Q>O*=j=xdJZX
z4otK=8~5UVxQ8@B(Y~ffrjSyIAU#jF-GmuKIdLZMiJH*ACCk5C$A2e5ZFuE%^m$KU
z0ps>AWX_9wNTK9|PnW5P7Y4QEM@tLH648e1#z<FM=J2Y~k+1ktzL3yfsg(ky;;)3`
zxMSO`9mrKKoDqJq6z>(h?VP0vrxqSn3m-LQV+NcYonp|GFAib3bPYLWTs6<e`>=Cs
zghO4L>O9|RMKmrrZdlg<^WhRy$KW(2&%u#nMsSHQR78!fK^=OMWaclueL1~5Mv&~`
zLoHWs$Y2w>XndWMNa@G`4VnqiHqu;vxLinMPcC;=N<dpE;1|L>N7ff2U#k~~&$?8z
z)`1{QRpswc7IQmmR4M6REHPJAF}GluGFOpqvv6*EEpaVVe>W2{nG@=3c9g8eB}~k4
zni>(rzieX`n;PQ!L15jQIoJkAY=a;7q1EO+!^N!4b^o-93g|Z?HJ<j(z|QSkp-eB_
zyxuhpTH|othi@^=8J(qJ^`=`}dPZ=`#iQ1umOasc13wPHZ~uR@kLS1f@be`2W`{r2
i4qi``TnJWW3qA`aaT{96@0zdM$baT<0qatK#s3ZQRfUrP
literal 0
HcmV?d00001
diff --git a/inst/vignette/figures/swathydroPSO.pdf b/inst/vignette/figures/swathydroPSO.pdf
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..4ef336b445870c4ffbd321532d82a15abad92173
GIT binary patch
literal 80704
zcmb4o1y~$Ow>AzzLvSA;1ed`FcM0z9?!g^Gf-_h`aF^gtaCdk2;7)LdA9nY<yLWf*
zbMHU>ba&P1Q+29Nzvn$wJrwdHV)Q@;Ruqc0^^pk_M0NlZz|PPTg@=bx+QQbvz`?@9
z#25f%lm>9HGqW%;$^keTMFAW@5Hl;I?6X`Mz`+Ir0U0F#S^!QCb^tRIyAB^8iixf9
zOD}+b`Jo`XIhdHfSYigDATs^&13nvm`2lSIBLgyVGXFycWCQ&}#=^?-4;d>v(?4V!
zod3{!9_>GDFtalMV=T<<AdbKH$IQw64;c&d^9=qr4;BvAf9SEY0RJ%$RyLM@=&><@
zfPe3gjs2hVWe2kT!!A2B+u!HL%*+Y=yN&0U%JKKM%q;)(GYdOA^WVq9!p_P04;cp&
z=<jw}I9ND2|27Xcb|CZL?Xt16u>XC096<JezH_D*sQs6pog54-tW6wH5T8M-^o&;k
z3mc=Not+clxi5esqol2=9f0lkqKFm`h?$-F*$ykGn6Mb9D60rFkQD@EVF3a;L^+s*
zK^%NMKw&|U7^jG+Ff)q~6Nr^nP?%j<2*fTd`utc_PzcDU!zk}y;_`xgPT(`x5gnZj
z9GrefH4_RV1%;@b7z*Owp^t*d!un@$iCI`XnK&?tSsOT+h?p4J8JjRl0)Q;c&w&O6
zvNKAX*qS++KNmraN&prRAD^R>gNcC+3ZnV4p}v09^SRvD+S*F>W#A)XykC5PUzXq;
zrldS#C>|~u-ZkDO5VH*a1Hb(HQJdEmF$Ssa%N^~cwE8!IEWbkm<ScmT^>!R>f@>mh
znlbwzEqAvQge3wwbe2DUlqr-UEx^=7U)c;gjD_hQ27w6z+Z6Me7@i~gk1_la+b_=j
zgDGT8oD7T&oD2Xj6I5iBH!w4iHZU}?b_6`5;}3x&;5qu9%gXK_Oc;fqm96c}{v?WL
zbo{3?VLMwV6I&-oE#Nae0E*8(`2F@<bHEEvya<1LwSbo>dak_y>E-sDrVgX9gWU%q
zJ2$NtDI185fteY=$;zz5C}U!5VeoGc<P992EⅇMH5FmX9pt_N5F5LKO@QM`5gg3
zOurBPWpaOx`$gpsCy2T^i7UORKBG`v2?%($`aCE;K1Q+U2|de{m6-v+-(=54769;f
zUnwiI0)W4RQ(2iE0DN)8OCxy)J0m3%CoRTjer8lQadY|$tN!MgKdk->j{d+7GaJjF
zu#pJy8U@P20Fhxw`EoymS9QA>Qu0BvWzJ%>3IQePuHqz2p$S6E6~SUp+q<-SAwQwN
zXm*Xa;)dYKY9bW8*4F!4)D}C8_A3EF)8HI#FBB^GW@ceKl^N{Vl--ky6F6|?YnZVz
z?wH%H(SJu+4lWj)e#G-c`~p#5f7dLDlC-oAwzbkGe7JUq9v#M?A1Bk|tg7>8pXz-V
zYJEvKw@6o3=V7k)%4VW>8hgG!L+8EmHvW8qkd}jSWdOUo`B#`~wHSM~=%!qraU$G=
zjF=W{spA$KjDtwF1#UOH5o;T62VTpSiX5Fox4ywxmw_HB(`t%qbbW~3`4z5z0q<|1
z`rlp1^q0tcc40IxY6la7*i~{n4iz)*XYcg)8ujOo!e_#70^7fk9-o{`>c-^@D9#ss
z4BZTn&;Rv!(;P=F;8i(Nv0M!`JYdVzwLs}<U4lIORKvJs-T9%ftC6>z0>_d4!Yu@7
z#t|Badv*zq!*yhrYV3@!^bC70R!=@Zva@=re_N;MPUdCOH9RPT?|l>(sJYAXNVR64
zMkV9mAwv^^%Gh~h_Ju;SqL@OXL^77G&qcQ4lccKHm#I`^c#1jT*Mm!0gILS3%1z2v
zh^ou^;eT_>3qJpFi;#h%$qRHD<t3$L-^<Yo8(3QyI#|#P*;yMiirPL?mW8buqnd@S
zpsl0Df7Qh-92}j5%?%s?tW3WlU&O@G$id=+lbr*A`FF@m8~mXGWCk)SIU72?FoLp!
zv&nDN@Z04#yJ{B3PUenUEYCsna=t|K%fbATA^>bme_sDn`;W%|_0ImBMA%q<@0pe3
zg<t-sgBA2L^k+NIDVmMxcg^3@^<P@BvAo1C({u7+duD79faN*u|E|Nq$_8M4PGYPa
ztbdK-mu~(K5PZ%s{~`Zp2o5)(bTA={jx8&h`@LQhk71Sn$ZA{Ri_V>H&F({w#&F_K
zTZcm++vKQ_sH-cj(tp+T%GIH6boeaXaO2Xyf3+C(*EGJ{0!*U~Mx%4iS)rm5gSeX9
z52^4;#^st3#CoOmZ2%`MU*8tdJ>_=*Cp;7-Y;HOmCp9N5`)c+oAyYDDGSqL?@t@CC
z<(CIV9~3_z7Ia9qxu!d2N`^TC%*WR-!GZ7SWd%u|AEDyPBFeTwnk)Wl{+0#-4Z&}^
zpzv?dd-3qULQnob&|`eT(sTAPuyuL?h@%$sZ)~aaCmJP<pLyKE$(>%}PhdTx>zTUk
zRBSC?vh4Gs^V!ZHY3QYwKe_xj8veHtND2Pe2>uJ_|3A2A`8^B%|Kk1`XDrVrE9iGz
zJtO~RLHGZ4yr7Q#H}ijO_q>t=u>F=n|0@0O<=?Hca)1DA%+Kg$X8Ha8+gMmRfWOt4
zfAi(@xSsDE&xn7~WP4c@KOZct&k^vvcx7REk-a21j%WX}vOLd+jpeUV@RHB}*C=4+
z;P`74fE5QK7MPG5?`WN>u$gH01SJK=gvWF}rfq71swFTmC2=GwB=}o|7wp#<<mr$*
z-ho&!#TT7*p+qqhzhlnIV{JF$LEV@~5Ga$wYV-#knQbEnXcihcF1jpJ6m<C?P-XG?
z3y~%!vc2MxdKV&fGkVw>Z2l=GcQ8>13SCLo`qBvVo65FCn}YGiF{!#ak=h&Io_Gw7
zwh()pnjQ!et*a8YNXSIl4qO~YAH-ycA8+5d^i@F@EZ71#-^kqg<>}P-JUW#pI6Ms@
z20U8B-+RK7u*cRt88uNJaa>y6K^1tkZ^+!S?&b{|J!Rv=GEMb9xM%Y(WGEi!9Yp;C
z@y{u&ISOle>$3;-$r$Vu%q0i`2Za>GYEsA<rF5255v}^ajwG%D-kNl7^p#PgJHF$m
z6nj7D;QYG61j{HB%jo^0MFiMtB5C{N$96K+?uGu(@gYa`96yf>fuQ29U}Dum(x_Ko
z!80n3mh`I`H21u2Z9gmctMpt^s0W~&ZVIg6Gv@6WpL&_6;+KoK$uAr<qDOgoj}KwA
zFr`xLZ56a=QD*a^Vs*wGZ#8UPy)*_4T5NR^Zd%~MuJDZ|E70CGuL4u)ww@mPRT%6@
zo=gj=M(?roA<XVK82^nKUJ&)aLWGTp`L7T$R&IzO03sh;V9^{x7>c}~%;H^5bb_qr
z&emMqL~IC-ei9G-GJQ$Pgghee6(Q1+(mZx}oIw6<;_hbVvZKkC!Q*bxhkH!6>1L99
zv!5?m{tWcS%-7TP3(d*;`5vG6$98hXBU5yn$pI!2Q{OrQ#a#7V1Cea8d3f=0#b(^Z
zDbG;#K=EO$iUQrmAkT7Ab+1+q4}}ctaJBc;1uG>Hk?7D}xLtM)o-EYE$y8~Vj<4V6
zjy%EKteXKmtA8pej|Nn%ly>+yQ)^NSEe*8$aeWYB#2iBW#;kG@!m0&f^eB)&`<7Ec
z;QQOJZP3!ZfRWFpoY)<&4SIe}{)~}U!E5!g5K>+#Mq&!9qa)1QOdt`-lZKk?B-iUm
znTM#9ub6h>;8veI6M!cEd?5d@{gv;{RQJ$gNXt%#@&`t#bir6YH1`<I^2=PlthSs;
zMe$*ZNX53CL@vu%>WD8H)F@nKVlsGa6Fa&?hf#sy{y9Scsl=aHs5W9w@wedecFf+;
z0O9m85p}kHf9RE<1bq8L7ZbOFNsL&_>CNDU*IKm0Znv90wpLv~=GHEFsyg?Jr~F5F
z4PZxC*XA!)w@Nu}r_7I()AGbTP0^0~Nah0X6l{tou52*0_b&}NU@d;Z=3O)X3T^tr
zch&!dp$~z}J$3(Y*m>d3f8%s%q5p9DZwng9=lzI<(VvOrf2Ma3$KRJV&z$y>QU0WN
zAlskW=YL$*ustWQm-DZ*%gp-1hA#&v(@Q#hA=BS=Se~h$1@zyR4}aNu{Lh;JR!-Lc
z78PHmA~Ar-J;yhgAX8MMwZ`sdvT_M+^^iJJ)Vu>J%K+s|h!x_61Zj9x6@rI{OGb-x
zIorVC;+u<&=D=<KiA6vV$pjchvsTv858o%WsLbCJgac}sP3YL(UAXP@R@XVdt>deE
z>mu7MCONRP9iz;E47}O@EL_rXyp~GO^EIAkvf%q$n>i;DU*a#PQM}1tR5-18^EOF@
zCsaMVN3&KXX7N*(vOHVrUH3J4ZZ8zD+cwN@#L}3AF0nM;_w3DtafYjgZi*pcMExv4
zL=vT<gF+_RjM4VX<_c=yC}R@W$z?h$>t#VzwfFNlqhXLnR_^R1U|`!Y4Q$q(`G%Sp
zgNDMVASU&M7xC(y-G#@sdF@Xw0ihHPMtP`M0*YYZ7V56gdj!H}xk{eo{kK$swTn&3
zBtC6#DPn)!YU$}BmD*AFeZ#U)2pvjiEblu`7a=q0AUn1NzD0s$Lpr7fe?;J{l1;{o
z=T(G$d)9wmP!ZC(BPZ)DX)3R|W&6(J>ui&@r`tgwR6z06cNXQNrW!CTlifTbLzKtW
zcvJljuGr&;J0^A-!Kx!~v~P=>ejSpwh)Avz5aMN{e%jc}yAra*NF=Q&PY{%vZMLfw
z2cs?@GT#vO-n2j=L)<_v^ZZK;{I)y(U-^@j^S|+@w$eZZCJ?!Co7O>^WPa9tJ9M?Z
z&W=u~&>#+WNFwjX_tk>?AZn1LE67K=!IBCyc<y^}6qJS`Ze}|dfZ8(Tpi3Umg>G0m
z0}Guk7V62BW*}gr+Ddtt^A$0BQtPgutZF%FV51poZwJ}Ab=u%EaXB=*1wRd+71cm_
zui;AG#^U30Dr2`)!`<OfqlMsVbbL%(I5bwGA?7XgG?Rf`sV=wn4-=o(!Qy6GT(^t;
z8>7W<)V@5(nx;R_(2C`V$&|7YLHZRvL$8CzQu&95>4mC$y1bmX2db4^M!dv&kKp;C
z-L6v7LQd*38g@LL?beU_PLPD0<Q6UuuMPPIR>wR>4bcOpWl{V`wUZ)s0-DX1(Xp1G
za<3v2Um>sptq9e_^kFfZ)<@9go5)HLrP8}L*_uiRte_md%-9({LzZj|a|3dhR7D}_
zpl7%qs=qt8(6dk2eYL7txCZ~MeyaYkJMPUHVckbuN=DY-e)*{1n=LWG>r63L5F9Kc
z;^dn;a(L}MgL9~x5rcnt(kGE<dHDEPFFF5NyK~r#!Dc?$<cD7*jfcX(>T!*wBLhHJ
zSc@GeNd(2|756ZoEcq4Ut8^}v`q=B&qrUr1#xSZQ3cw)U@Q3HkUk}H^zvAR&nfkxu
zgyp|2#gvsKLkWSe8~3re=7Z4tl`R|a?;(U+S_91BCc;mypH_pFou@Fp%|$n`5lxx`
z?P{X3He%SCi&_ZTMkb905(_r)?a;Ct1L9&Fk4~xs7=3*n?>z2^nk!>lB5TqSrZkkW
z&)r>;$bIgG@=mM7Nq!O`Yu2d4Z%HdAY84=6GHnuLc6}FbCzEH&D3dt<^+DYwZ)>!m
zGkh+>a^-kUfN)YJcL@Wi#?(!?LL}GlnnHt{20LTjI&a_dj!xzw^Yayt2~<K#Ty0`m
zzzl#n%Fb~-U^8=Tl0XMDp~@U>TvQ=P{qrncwmK@?w5Ou03`}e!`Dg!}xny~&^IEPV
z?n$h}fKUnL9wW3;(@81Tk@+FmcAEW;kh}V!fRFkh8f;ZwZYWjW9>~iueEMAFuJ2y;
zy;F!DHyokI@4(f&b+Eo(7eQxe3{GJ~=5xFsEP6tA6uW=&#wcGuV)lQrELRy8`f{_*
zyq0cnpfLhL!p_Ezv)yJr*p8Y0NkVdI<eT_N&nbX1L{Xw9H;QufBAiFCQl;3+WUlfp
zUQbyCA87&AWK*YiJ(|re`kF5!97OH6Zkd0hh`;Xp#hITsTBZih)=rFa@&Ho<Ye$pk
zg3R;BekH*_s!B2dCI%+v-@l0c*M~1g6=B6c+uD8jUHQ)q*7GLf{{S!``}3~jj}M^0
z=iLu8E9ajn%zU{j30_~h>-KU*iQ^Td5E8{}cDfJ%g@m1uM3x93qZbbH>!=hH&TGh=
zSu!#5P;E@uHc$GGc}cUc3DOa;TO-uv(IK&3i^>BIZc-CmUFPT%YF8dsqDV#(Jhlc0
z6Wq<V{8`BgWW##X588ykE~rh;DZ}&W`8AdY+=#~gF!yB}>&6zjg*P%AaiF|9o=lV2
zmoyfarb<-5-jT~E2-e;eiFSS`o5XD(M1RMm(8ie=s6!b(LgG4lc||b~KA&`d!&4A9
z-JDF-jpTYJ8Bn=(Fn>89RBK1J2hyK+Hah!pkV7HDQR07h)P4^V4Y$IZlOXZCKH9wr
zSZC?y;mcIRf1S`1T9O1p+Uy?r&M)dV20js8h#aw$a+*TT^q}oyg5N3qB8onZSP1=|
zXvES>Ajv5d(DYr3LwaI#=vcy4(fspgZ8A|G=%D(gjd!Qq>^G900~f)m8}Dp>Ah57&
zv2`wWrszZhh98_Bw@vT0B<04CszRzq8_t0#qnT8Zwz(WTp0^=BS(W$}48^I_>Q<6Z
zX8ey@#X<$P*6)(`FhFL>BoF(^Bq8$SXM9&3Dl5`l$Lo_W5rKC%$5(de#}$PNU}=J^
z7WkF*d4+B8vQ}-%aC`9zX^BbbdWrb`$gP?hjV$_5`o0C~P>#D3`A{xwRg`UxVf|<9
ziIlvsfZFD;qwk9KL9wGvP9*d>cNTaLUt=er&jH2hK|2PM>ogwzs)bBHePEtq2jtOD
z89hEtkHPJ<>;gTKQ?q}3C>1}nOE+8X;XClb=d;>TxaNb@LzlYd4fExr$#U?BNEJ^i
z=U$zcNZJ+kcy-IHd4}cjO*d<1EFx*FLMtcj*Q?qmu6IvQ@0vsxc5LQlxp#=p!B;!p
z^O6nbS5Ioa)#;HRyah<c#doaIMsv^c4l|n0DGsyjcC_XrbzL_;{Te}EN9w%M?7BrQ
z_em!~Kcg~q;E6c<hRjRncnxFGk^`*?lQQYVC52idvQHmJUnNwXWzIXs71`&3eRx8*
zm>H0YTs<_Ax1Kwe+D=hIqF8)_ycU}Q2YsRDTzsfl+;Q<hvld+cnv`2b$6Ae^^wga<
z{*o6@m0`jLWy_;k?B*3eN`6YI(B3b2E-I@)t4QIInbcr=2zwFwFdmwjL!a!;c^r!X
zUvqr)OV~wzLnqEpiP*Q5)*)%T^1p7Q5c%Kt?BH-wKk>`981jGwTROZE`FeiVk8&(-
zqut+qm7Tz=(uYk!vQI%m0tID^w3+8v)SE^<-A}peh2(1_h6Cw^!X`7T%!}()g$wh$
zT5}yFe&|aSBMD^|B80{8{rJJ9sRNF?_yMO$PLH~7ib1byRX|}rB-D-%C%lMoVm|ak
z1Phy1i5>a7O(^b#@LKicyamVVld7f`J>HC(InfVUO`Ku^uld#`;-e!3D@wL+75N{(
zkKyf?J@TEFhAHIGQJl>Kv&3~+m}j`XW=BaubD!Z+8fmNqo_xGnSjHz5@3PO2oJ~fE
zml~W8$Lo|F7TAlm-cqn%v0BZi+ZM+sP8EuZiq%>peT@<;X5mS2x7AZj9g#jg-=7hy
z<-PgUi+0j`R`>Ip1}I`Ag)*y-wntiU@Rb2jiPQ8w(|7FkBT3$cDi<@i#paY<;wv#5
z;|QFYoZVFIn&Z4iVye=ix4U_$;zCf0wJiA3?_KYzcw7S+9WS%LfE%4Q)KuwdhQ6}%
z706i8gcSr1Sk|8Y_=Wk+g5Ja8RLCxRtO;4^gR{L>T6BCg|8QK&`jAAVltk}0pO|-N
zr*js3af1WA8Zik+4sk!0wH>ayacO$3uy}`A7<^-9%r?jsLZTHE9fC?#Y4xP!>Pt5p
zp;3PIu6q~r?&3A85*x>|y>){gGNb5rTcn_T6>vq!t2jrgcQYFTq?FVS6-QRZXosHh
zugLIsYxajxh;3m1E)PlAEDF+fX~+kZBrAT=+PppIL9YP4R<x@{(7;4^^={<sZSeR0
zUZs{wO15A0G#_d#!sp{!Las$?7tG#nVu4fMvif?3Q1Yhi+r-breTfK*@wzC&GdcW%
z&d-mA2Gmd%j+lu%pgx_t$aa8ns}&`XCf@rdsm!dm#7bf<@U1^CIhvt=bC{}6Y8xuF
zkq5LKm;d?9Mnl|n(UB;Rd^6PH+Hhi&N)nG^*&f47=4`Dy!&ml$=lUBj>bksU?MPRz
z5_1YUaOq}Et<I;$Ea?C<q%fjjy41yQxIZuV?8QpV>D_8sPSPlUP(m4wYL8QEvi`_j
zDC|-I;2&ig1{c1+X*GEJ{Q^TUP$F@fk%5%M&-d}WgnfauY9=Gu+frONn1Rl#n}JMw
zYlZaKBk;*CDQr<pehy-uLt%Y#eIAmtQFid_p*hCa#&6e#0@5O^v*XOW;A}}u8k$m1
zQnk@;<=<DU@g(J0%{6NX^J;*|n<{>&Fyg89b^X+t+suN2fhY99ztuM_tQDwy@2a<p
z%5@h2dxZwmAVtQbAuJ`bMf{Dl?gZ{<#$op3jjMC<5_+lWJ24J9)8-zc^<lccl^r@7
zDrzZ7YU=*pq)DBPpS%1eoh*|JEV8lA!LB}wJobh2F*znEQZ^I#Msk)3;#$c{v6=M5
zT;q4l)*4r92FngQ6BDP3jsuD0gLllT5Y*#pIL+-!oQv(G4){>w{$P?T2gETlJj?fJ
zyTlC&<hwZNzb4EN#8Ms%p?tXRr7xwTeb(T^C-vVH;C9#qdM2BvCOJ@k+t>_^3o{&x
zxt{V$%*DBJk}GAFsmbzINIl7KwoFz2xuSJ_W$LSS-7pGd!pU^#j931$-NqS!x|zcn
z-jGRJ;biBOY_RN~VlVE9F*+sY7p<#jObdQcU4!V{r|tdhs<)C^ev?Vax=1@-|K=`o
zNVEpUIGF0eJGz%taq}Z?0(1CIgaj+L&1blnU7WU`S~2?rHWapdDao`Aj^M~!_xh|k
zkQ}Y#A{D46yE?bYi{pewgkqWW?HiM<4Bg9+&lns7o9`V&vo?%)5%80?#cYyTU8w50
zB6Ae%4_JtWGZR>K-(clJN%F)-s~3C3Fjmkrcb3+cOsh72QO%^~h(lu3am_=hbp@B=
zzmLIG{6+(52`~5{s`1McK9nZY7JY8RI-4{VgsUNvVIs=_b5}rlInuK_vRl~JGr<<c
zDFjBJQYN-5FO}kPXWd(pAgms9A7|kp-N==(ii{@|>B+8*8!M--dAr!*DpSZ_Oy2HY
zD0TehOYoiw<?3x{9<j2UVYy7F)pj16SqrBUp}WYn|KlX<ApW+_ylv6Wl_9-H$ShGx
zB<z-qvgKuVn~H%-mZBs^0W}k<0`(42CU2Vn6QOqLy;L}g#6;Aso&f7Ttc5xbN0wq!
z0?V637#aA7R=@`ob(kkpz_J(oNh(0tx7~euP*}rH0gzyDFRU~2-D3-i=Ep-XcNXHC
zR^$F=Di++0uQuP;bXyZ6_mk|0q|q%8S}R#({3v($M8`7Jmv)Y%y1W7mb*Lw42p!*0
z#M4u~BV0GyOAp4eyv)gy>e5_0z=_w%pLL5AQw?w@!TOvuL`fy7PbauYF{z!eH3m}!
z-So}3{HJLBw~gXYhJDz3c|G#w#OoV^NkTz>eEL+lXtw^o(66m@gWSG`oc9f9eGjM-
zD2-aQRo=EDPt;7h$eTS1`gN%C3*!1ypk53#cnRD4hVT@2i|?93C?Q%Xe4k1t1Co2E
zIeJaNf1J}1dda2FDU-9oUo*fcG4Cox`4B2ro>8=D5@V7B%%E~Dd4LK|5JduO@8#~G
zJ1mW`k%-9iH^6<a)!14{$21;O`5p$Rjd*KlX>OMj7#%%1x`^fAt%J)ElyQHE(=m%4
zcv_0-3t$6Zn@KG5r=V3DV&P4WvIXL2ru77nr(FnP$7>8*vaEoL9|V<t@F#;t#YW51
zk>XJh+oZ3>Kf-<&R2n*B)hXTb%BNzzOdrM~Lp3iQiJ8~3lXedG($rreJ5mWLR~+FS
z$UznH)CNa`AL^|e1o$*=x2rzd`+SaIDoK9?uM1GGR`VGQl4<762;JA@H~ZisJb>4V
za0f|8bn#UYr(C~%#EygO2XTOb&r=4wQcZJ-rhWkD0@<6wT*;HGV=|bsQL|pTsRa>4
zDpfziIZw-tOYo-D3pMO7<TqSGvQ4WQ(s4<V|8QqjZy1^@wCldG2E$IgzGCH+Tr%d0
z4oqLl&vk*@jS}-E^k$4$yyf}@vsc31-5i2DVhe56S)}t5er5kF!><K9Coxa`=je>}
zLHlHH;4{$XRt$CI*{WEkeJcn16--!b^+~8q{dVOQV)*wDSFjT~D_Q!f3OGmI>2>E?
zNUHmV3aP%Ie~jDl&*pY?kJfy`d41(MOK>3&h#VxNq@W~BcW&~fUhg_h3S%dL74n(Z
zq=-uPSrzPv%G8qa+TjEf-VaSphT0%J(ExMHn^w~(w@j;X?yox7ap?{}4oy-qtq}BB
z07ibw%0!C|E_AEn1Ge;286Thn=JU9LY4er4aD!(L#dwbxZSD$#0Y8AlGwJ@T+JWV4
zoOUUhKY8rhTte&vdvB;xEn&Ba)_w5NlciKo?+pgC1ReMg@EVHM<l(^k)7z{|_o();
zNlf1n#nyR=goME}^0t%7<)}vNqrRD#jUz~Jv-BhBNR>zg93gk1lW)>P2-Q#lc3_fj
z_VWvmc$_tAUe0&-VT-1W_-4Ao31TFT+e4BZJ>zs;(xdGjQHp|Gw`$qW!KPZJ9dIzW
zDHZfG>#lRtDHmI;{1TLn96(lSz=9*(68XZJN0)Y$0;FibELd%BKd<40;-aD+Af0j0
zCfGiWG^?cwBU;ChOEouauBNvCnwueXL1Q)_a$#UF7oiUg7iW31I<Q#7vhMXUG5(I_
zXP)m8p6v6)NG(E4xXvu`a1C(lw}S86?qAzX!GuTYo`-c;sb7Y}h`Lr?g*l+2&I+HH
z577QPLSgboP@*C*%PZ3xG{1gz+86a;l2ajh`4L`O58XwrHR2k)hcvnzF7Gp^H_9J6
z<SFRcUv7XiH(<htQp7tNDB&9=M$n_*LKkZf7f&$>bCQ%!+$Y=NolA<k<vWSj*X;ae
z{njjW-4N9Qap(tbX{Q$sbC4E)Yjcv&(vZfEXJwv5ULv$vn7hmd`9~C`nIq{R#W=Mj
z3*=MUQzXXyH)gh@Td&Wgc|=3&7&zI}#FAvPm4PlvNa#;A{zTthTnJD51MlF@`y86%
z%3mKg1;fp<m(c1{VsYhmEm~h@Xm+>!vPL|g@<luk+6B0&>o*Fpw8{J7iRxC3*nUU@
z1|o+4jPY|RWV~~t)XefUZ&nfGXtOIgR|{pw&pqJD?`M=<`E*}BTK_RqZ}Ss8lqF`g
z?RocNl@cv8O%?a5E%Md3GDr^uFyeN0>r|L63an4=N%Fv_<3*?#BgoBtT5~L1KTtkP
ze9^WdDQ@A4fK=OcOQ;z_L*1uS0lwP#MM2?FQ}Pc)X!RC%Of}0wj`ZNCY3s~jK9Ld^
zulMwmK8eKW`bEjsO_GPjO}ON`!YOL{#iwK!{w)ME4;jMJj5-1P&Hy4?dtU5^OyZIx
z+!c8OBety-{u9*F?*^?E+zK_pKwMgyyz)YhTL&CVe;<&<3cTkbM<=(e1@6;&I7zvf
zOxOJb7ex{^>+2csXfuv7WVf~tqX-**1^{^NSBhgnO}7(ycWg06ixC(5J#LXwJDNr~
z?%`I{W7jb26Kc4WY8?@};q~e=bNW=TH|Zhp(iwMXYSX=T<FuQ%RKAT!h^3X~g*@_H
zjC+@fM|=@y%w>Imu&z~^#6C)`Jt{gDY`GDbr_q>q!AH1#<gfsiQj*(b>WUnmYe=~A
zZq-ve1@J{O%$!AU>tL43iSxHix}|a3gilXS)kD)kTf7(ll(UMwMbJjGXYhcGs)V)x
zOHcwHw@<OfQn1=rIuC-K9I6jt))60jhc$`r1lb|L!lbOT9n1&!?jtgj_PI@z^+Pb5
zA%~?Yf8^CKnsdQ$%hi-qBv0X4NW<YOB_Odh4BjN(@uK1fcsB+87Lm%sxT@ffVoMTI
zhi?<@WYe+damt(_O0b6G^jF-kax#li7P872s)H~V?Lhu6{2PRDrGBM&{hi74_;imA
zylC9S^+kx2&Hg$qmNbW=Ff(z(4XdO%3o#^<?(hc)*8zi!htfEE1DlNqm&~jXXHrJM
zo@BiV&KAGORz@$GhcdYQFRk;fmY$GC{(&X%8y+rD%PXtP!H&3%`R8S)cUbq|uSKr|
zW`m6B?596zeS_Nje3K4T$E|1?MPgN+SGm@3Rguw`Yo*Cgl-D}-YQgY6V!WNgPW;G*
zd;HlsF#HUvdy)fEc~;s`hH{Ic+!jUWYfwo;IM-xra3)BMZn-j_RowR#UBKPDMk5T1
zh^@~Hnb^0-^0h-juiv$k1PtAC7b*}LgaMbYnb?OjcFE+<6tdmn_X|;!rATD#%Yd{n
zZaA5EgLkd7pFFTd)WnKNVG@<_25%w+^ddpg?(*q}LiZO=QWV&RHsw*@afedUF7D*7
zY8mhMKXExUQREdKQBP|aKD^yF`ha$ae$xV1);*G9a8IA$ID#<gy-)U}m2vU$!`GA7
zpE<WNqcdREf9hruce217;YH*t=qOFxhAu+wc6!6M-5Nd-L9MIJqa&ad&8)U`Q)Mkc
z?doLZQKmC_EReLpUFUt#3%x|CqX^2Y`}mk`?01xD`bA=oY*f`?5a!pJ1X;NcoY>nf
z#dIAhwfBMY;0>7y3OjlK)>`B<M+A{!#iF=g>+E1>R0({AAMed0FhXm^(<4N5)OF82
z%U$Y7E@u5om|8mL#Sc75zC7|WrRsjZp(U^nA|OZ}DN2avV9!{QZLK$XGsWCvU^9km
zWD3{bS<3~xyT0k8nqN+ENi&_L-oO@f*KT-7ed*Ox=)IU$u6p;48F+;jIxC)ozLYm<
z8*+uUk1;a>AULM)_AH7V->B7@dbICtZl3ybwO~LwgbY5bg%`D6ZxoF$WH{yNU5A=p
z6?f;ecL{CsDyrmI)y;}336ii{K4|pYj{kh;gmLv|^P80;+PF(cvX?&>%vRQ~8_{8O
zPaugYmtO01fr%JMuC4mOfT2gz4S5Q4-)+6jG41gkp1LavyIR|^yF=eLx)}zf&<MFu
zEAKY7Eo4(`=IV{`YNKC1CFV$g`<TXSPALSC+z!lXD@^$^@`pAJq3g4J$4^l#pT^5r
zJ}p1>-F)PPN8m+@x_jC~1{jaDe70w_o`zN?*uT_tC<dD`t@L=yWzu^X4pl>16_Na`
ziP7wTXt7GE><+VJ<d8WS;_{uJaJQ2`All(D;&p^zhhHq4*=Q!6u1_e#*=$auzNG9*
zoy*Nz*NE}=s2^v;ao;UVDG}2i+*ilg8n~%1c;Lc0sEpz@cZ{u+JE}YK<1N{8HzL{^
zvK&^9E}ah(Z5}qQ#!Eh)WB+xGeOFWl9TCD>1~l7E%R;UAbri<i=IjJwg+I27ox^l@
z5l?_-7oX+JFM~YqVbW7sy>VS%(h$|Sv|Maxy^$?Z=sFwjXz;~$u_e}kQt%annP20m
z`sqC>IeRKbX1({Ws(n_9c5s_%M!$*r7_TCdcDhOBh+b`(<rrs{1C6J}Ff$>*o>r=4
zf}8qX&;g|puPn<XaaFoNQ8BdtA*EhzP|^L=<1cA>q6?3$`^U1**ECljDTev{ELZ&A
zi^E--2w$0Q`dI7BRnuEoqOl7tpV^odgUQ?F%{=HAh0hN$CMEa}dGr~?=H^%NN<|V^
zfZgD(#4TJMQ)D529lvHrL>sb8bImpe&q&3=SgH<7OLLUiM{oT|tauWGL0!~^u6-}C
z>p)no^95+_9$`IIwCl3TDXfmjplsm4w5&~6P?K-JFUr%ctZOr2*ws1>FLw%0`qiz_
ztJCI`TM=Ak!g847pN_qyeBBXC$_I)5S7?`+#Ovp5Gif!4H0YdP2{sSVQom`KW0-K0
z`66!6w_9)6l_;2Ld8gP|M{*U)r}}w-TL`acgz6;{_{Q83Mu2mRtM{Y>;ivsglm<_8
z>I5MVGA1K|X+f{<6a$;YJDkdU=q|ar<UK2CyT}>en5jz42prk*(vS4@&h92hS#6@K
zKmEvJtL?#eBnrpyr1Rrd?MjYf>3$CwiA|^P#rCuUuxv<|bNWkUxGn4IyRCXLZGfW$
zkX|!hE<$O4;KO}f^s8(++xE$7AAZmzm;w3vC*O2E943(LQJ;Is9c{u6U&PAGI7iH=
z9O11<D3HmfADJ|vxvFOJyzSSg2xAv-^o)k{Cc0qm1%Fx*n#KE669aePX5W-tt|#yH
zomGD&Y(Mha3-!=#?2K^61c$$)t$|xF!bZ&i<!v`#V`aA?+vDZ{kWpNpt%n;Fpt$+C
zraub1e)A!ey$3K1A<4gvQDEbR#80fZH2^fC>5_mO)wYj-<1ULB`?k09ZjFbcr?C#v
z-nK?3!tSepZxMRUM@nj)181XTE3!G-Z#^w+tT>(c{G@u2-8_f!l`11n5t2HGJfBZW
zX(gBk^cQ$!ga`RpX_=P$><`=v{7!@Gn1u($yICOE(RL`Y9Q~%?9<&aUT-tEik)2ua
zuY3mGv5nk~vM68Oy`_!n_8~qS2lYGX2y3XaRDG7YD4vQhMI1G4ncz8d?mYhJbAuGl
zByL1V0L{=5@9_Byc59ySJcVi<tI-a2hZZ((gy)=e60~O<svCTF*mLI)xae@KdT>^f
zgC3k_8=LOCB>A}r8`GdgRu~*Nl17QE*MDIoE^m!2PQuuY>p`^U6Um9DKNv33vghZ+
zN965{=`7BB*><f%upebO8>z5$A-`e3E5<T9jI!ZT#@A0hoe=l439X1lul>%q+}Si=
z(<=3Q;f9A&5!)1(QVFnYZW(Tno^q^5v(S;xxjWY`yZScVe1xF&y(M7yrV~#u=d8)8
zUYj3*x7W<O?W~FMq-f$gS<d&3Ps>ja$lFb|$*$|y>nE!3V{bwn1)Yg;!H$?0`D?Ri
zSt~xmY)p^Fcs6-~R_~^M1nLu=($s-pl{J*Whzk(N!}u>v26ksGaV@w}URdnh73QJN
z%d%W`yzAs9zq@CN$tms9zJ^-P$=}iQw)l?X33(>2-<%fWUe^K~nnO%tp0*AHc_5g?
z6Bsmj`Liks(Bpq}jawPhjL91Lp1<aeef+5o+VMdrCi6+)^G4mS(=YnH9k@NJVc8$_
z!*i=QyClkLw7H~tkqYx^@xEP@vZZUcApD%G4qWc={l!)fVlZo>!Lq;-0V8S4QCVpw
zm1gPZW-h2>HSWEvCu!kxX#FrQHE)<kq(|5V4r~*y0cVC0YlWwI>LS6cwzFC}!n7Vs
zyS6Pk;U~_P7JiDdchhR=N2;Uot*K;tg-rq@g7KWCSlhL0;0tDF`uqB}%l+;<WR)Yf
zqMpXu)Fb%vHDnFGI8FlWtB{P%pYh~0&@HSxdeMZaYe+K4@Q>l?I1o?D<|_Vi>!oWs
zk20WwQ@KyNt-e|jEqyc4O&?pR^{}gG7=94?s*DU};QZp)#DysieZMKtLi0M9mlhme
z)5ns3;nW~>bhlGz@oA^D8@s5hdAo_+efkGqE&toA{z1&`nAXu<!Lc5Sp{Zthn_Ce;
z&r~?Ba2GE1?TJgh;zC$6$tO;3REk=&DQ56iDAGNV_$haZ@T*R{{yRs9W4ls^AVm&v
znOEm>nn1~BmusY&Q8JP_^E6f8qjZLYoM2}{sPo;vLorb}$hA!S4(%gRC9>lh^Ik}K
zWp!Q9mjj#lqz0wbxd9Nv2u}b?=lrw>rsKRK_{NZUDZ(qlfaei{U0AQky8xtTSo|2{
z4&m*Bw#EBM%qY71t?X)Th{_i}W1PVU$pl~Qu-KqBRa8e`O_E@Gai5Om>K5Mb?FY;w
z@$|ZMB2Fk*c8LP7?|=z6mE^2`B55OjxTJNUS;9m73evn^R)0$2qBvOiQD#f-QA1y|
z_d;1)4koME{OMi8cVBF(s_Hw}fV!0+&o{U^%?}9vGQzXNOjmc8szsI6w;XlVH)eho
zB{z>L21i#HrjIgWna^z|TP}}_Hf-N@P<|ToJC-f(d-QfOTg<BDSJ4@P*{$`#1p}2%
zr0MTrr@fy|<~XOV`y~mix4H+jb(A0IKHjxT?E60{Sp~KT)s>bHU-SDlAP=tF$r~>w
z39z@jbUdkPGb$hHlsN4jzjrMP#(k0jEL=4E*3d3J(U#!QT$QX|kv|DTtz>=#N9_aJ
zj+GdOcb)(xU^MQQM7~yPxSCHEAH=C^^qKPtd!buC5(s)?vF~QC41^pT!fdw$-O!Q=
z7{{;3|3b4Ty4KzDZSy_#KKA`Ygktza>^%LAcDTBrwwb|N=TXlH4WiB$&H9H((cLi=
z%OpofxX_|#I$Yi>TLJaAPAC$v7$Wy!-e`og@KILw!0E?Gwrl#?C-h5)vaRE~7~s?M
zU;9Yi<#><H-(IeRQVHA)COj=MCrpc%QQOuTE@F8$=!SAIhw!tnJUlgX9vq0RfLk{W
zdEf7=f1!fUW)$)Z(S3UY+1&DPk{8p$$~D{gs032H{XZ~PF)m<jw}`@cQngjD`b5Ho
z9*+y;dsB2Fb-I37yW>=vCD1MUDf$qpx>Aa=<(S?IinI@A?o5ag@K#cjNgaY|E=1zZ
z#YOfc`{kVsabqB(M$`QH>quqF;%Rb5l;*6fqFhp5&Rl|Ky&={6WGoFy^K~vv`r(!$
zComDCp|wk&cLHpn46yraRqIhsGZu!`2yr^!DZOa2NiClwQqf9AO~LVCl6-bK!S2WW
z^<{Wq$>k>*D=BPs?5_7d=`N<=`^Ul(5aKO@0O3A&0rg%#r{L6QGem|x%tfs)E5)Gg
z4R;9N233od1@)ce;&Yo{2JhdjwD;K!cAj0kk7yof%<)nUBud7SFK@bV7g$9K=w?Na
z9J&QkmtEv$S?6xLy1nfI!}JL9Q&%VDA47Genlav>02218P^)#zr%--gwH^zbtOs~e
zhJqOT@R9HAc~WzDaRaVbqO}0cw3sUdiPRDesmLHxV&xUsWyUM`&%Wz^<?gTN*|gG|
z6<9ZjKdf?hwQ>Zv5Ay_<OL)6dweVWYeeS%9Si2LVN|^c8Op#h%r~--ovu<w!qJbRG
zCAvzu$rPAs0NU!vp~68I{rGWj1nR`~eaBBV;gSbQEkRP>$qg^qH&Yx6LtPr7KV4<R
z*y^r_Wj#YQgMZZ5p~OrGX0?N|R-~3rnoY8rH&$rz7&95C(s{~{&6eKV&QP5nb2bLi
z=KWZLu}VzJt9C;pk1%LVIZkHN6TI^ge;8uvJ!4+PaSuKoIe^(SAIkVVO=C}jzc;?4
za+9+7+9nd@ugmeuihNwx2x?}ST8*AYuw{pSgw{$RP2lN*EG5h`_(7tQ;8vP8w;fkB
z1*~J71d11L$SQ?>{^H7LppLtrasqXx)$jBW;cDM<7PK$8?Kz`ZKYtW{Re^D@DK7=)
zu$|FtL~Ah^PL<&Zw$mqH7Hw#eo+B%1wMNx4L~<X!!j69uNr1~rb+WX!6G}__Xutn@
zh+USOggnh>hveZvVdpB?E?d#}PNwlHcVlHj#9)xBI&c(=L1?9xz+1*^KwBi7Y>RZ*
zBwlOT*tlhxVJ4?Rfn??b!JT90O2Ka3d2Kb(AwSw7_Mx$8amMzLoJIa4^%701GpI`9
zS`Rrh)Mqhhcna<Odut6=o3r6rzwN_bl=~`Mi5abyCz4fLxnC_A>Q<zi@ztx@+?7Dr
zY<KlkU%_j+GM<0~?3LjGyCWnlsVUbR@2Ma9xW31cX$t~&lPh>T7eCbp?kC#3r<rq!
zrwiZZ^;oIBw%w;@D67Hjmfc49Y)>_ricn4<KXTTp&-4XE`)CSTda6-%JjXceT}>uJ
z^!*c!<0YY^?ER3S)|NJ=5|D&W;QC6s3$DwfOm<0cRAEeTObw_NP5O8VKt?C|p{oFu
zQgU=vxCUAF>6nxn>PdA|3fot>Et#PI#DtHsb48r$U2w|)gdXkusbg?OZ)51>in+AP
z%o9X{b}p898>z|`@<k1<6==n=5K?R`w9?B?vcOQV_W@R_b(AT#poQF>sq+{mo2ZmZ
zo=|y%s+$JeFM#w>DL#}W!7&MoA{0H;Dn68>BOcO&hP4YIN+gQX1+le=G>TToKqD(y
zst7aBlaN1~k1%OhXIN*s(u0-pxTbY76<T5dbN^I)tE<;+*JWf-q;&X07d<v|hqj`n
zh%ap`IVW#eIs4TwR2+Ss*EzvB+jlr#-095|UyW9MuOj=&!ozQOPp{v}aP0ZU_SAg3
zS0G-&cL?2lJ8(?s@=2$q{J!5Ic@rnri13VR0R8elVUseJL<6;w&=Ayn3O(R=dM(j=
zbud42s^k83KFV$&iPhgrY5DE*UUAbZwp6`&gG#T=ig93@&QqPw=q6?pBQ{cl&+sN{
z6FPQ@uA%ldx5l!Wd*r50^C35(Bm96%Y>h^Bd1Ke<y8+c$db%Wy<y9U%Gxu;_Jrnl;
z6O4fYIsy${L-*)S*w}52R3mCLYFfKR;x!}p>PCC`UKTpJN^5=hP!n(Wby~o_`m{qm
zrADg0d-5hQ*0=IL>??nNMW6}W06ATux~ju8S|v|spIRAD?<vH9L#(euy$Rh_C7nrK
z<fd*c1>Mz$>73+y+t>#6_v%N+8iTKn^r=njQa0IRwKQz0Bli*N5=_tsgkoXo&NOTd
z>!MAF2ee~BbR1=argf<%*aOnBcyv$t)P{8>jS7^#PO(C<7IaD)-^-*;6FQlrO`rzc
zV(saSG!WHKHBQw_Oz=9G6HPD&*yzYL90mwn{M<Ce%Cv`=lTC03<YP(cKy-6-pEcmh
zk&Wv@DZ)%3q<mw2=)5(UHJH`MHOAEyHEzqY%g#-AyBsK_<YI~GmNe?WaqPhD_KyeT
zut-tHM$i$d&sS=<jmw5+eB&@jQe*b4HnHd!Pt3s@*rcP^&@9vL{?hqHUAF~38x)q?
z*t|13)W7c<^tLQFDTi8$M+zgho6eptTphoHRX=~^&46O$v3%UId=Rfy<)mSVL4Kd&
z=Nv96Rw=evs#u9(mQP(>sqA50h84JUTw&cpimX9hBMuQcpEl_R@M0(Ed@Jrr?Fv)A
z$YrM(kF03Omfd%s(hk_i>ZwPR6Pke9Pgw@!==duLO+lSk-0H;pe)p{o={(p((s!vQ
zzV6m)y{>dCu|3}fo2esZf)0#s5;qG^XOVm3Hp>&D7}YN;yoNQ74Q{|JcQGt?{+mXz
zk(`xipe1;^1`U_;17r8JO<vh62D1m$0aS+jXUyIBEc6>Gk=ogR;<yphs+-i}tQ?}V
zD{CA+#UCi7D=o8LE7IF4;&7N|w4Y|IXly;@S=j-_I>a(J7e{Vt#F}yL=W4K*@pM(B
zn&`MUJ@qsvwALsrx!*S>jCrpFIcrpG2v-{q<gQsIcbwpHmw#JuNuCXnK?PNOLy}fB
z|2XbH>X4oM)3&Xl(;gN1l{jg@A@)3jv4K=9d(|Ah1yKI|0K2~D6N?<;E17}vn2NOi
zVOO7H-lhci<EN*Qq$jYUy6eeRH!>Swh2pd|J_B##5!k^Kb=Qqd54eiJ!~VF)VyZ8A
z^iJo9Oy@G1!SxG+Yt)D>C9fU%4=u?NtzfU9gR;2ZA)`RmsHEN_jyH9Fy)}JN&7vN<
zavn#d4omR{e7&~gjyTbFZ|Yp6TW~iBjBY6aGvM90&)U4-k0I(TrB@&-9Hm>3H}*Fw
zX(dN!CE`lU?*vyAhU}Y*iyTwGj5zY4c#*gvx+zwVg5U@t#QYvwJ6idnpJ2ccXpm@7
zE6~kIJP?a$i|~s`i_nWGi?9dKM=_TmJ6K!DX6OT0TR2-NTNqo2W)v@^THW#OMQCmK
z12`8*wl{midvuz?$&>Ku-n}6;k-N16C#OJq98F;nxE@w*^R8g)x6A@>-y1_mUx-Yj
zYe;RpA;S{s@0m;<1iX2tD3%=~@haMoOjHCh#J^ivI~n_RA7v&*CTZroOtQ?knYhro
zU?UJZ9y&GpD|8_GSo|l)A5l7Rx7bXOjj!&puTeh0E#4rlZns*s`a)6qsrjY(X+1)_
z!MZ`Y5pu#2!V*ItL8vXFg4c;U#}~R;wR`O-y61$9S)ye`)<jIv6C@Ahh5acMWwJvh
zC=x3Cf>VPdzKUBUe(zS__LdvP<bolDH^+}I*M6TJ?&b}NH|IrGETS1aNIou|9U?&<
z4M%n%vKKr^p(tgH8a*enC^Fu+sw0vtLMU<|Vl6TrtRA8s9N)((BLY6KN&ng!)C%9K
zu`0K^`UJTQ|A=r8>4tXA>vo~D>e^cB_XPKd#EEi`cunz(%k2tw)qPdGwFQbF<`LEn
z)eZX^@&ln894<UDWF!eBDs<4t&#gAeSNW2L>jq?T=({8n0yO@2!9}E|8Zy~&5@^vX
zBC2n8-&K5)z=@V6BNB<l&=51Gj;0X7#?TNkCXGgjb|DiagEZXZA*&O)7jXzS#^@va
zBH1b4DdqK5uv1t>z@JnIBO_SfL6q#0c+^54(G42;j``Pd>#J3YRngUzk7-c+kUq$P
zKA5wTo+)~{(8IL$t?r^r5xp~FE+W-4DB=txcoDsU13?5q7IPo)dviL-J1Bz!;-+lE
zw7Dvtztm0GWo2vavx`@Qts{Ebjc&fzyJhqGa6RfKPxmaW^PXf}ho4}K0_quksC;;2
zBjxzJEZ0poe{iqO^icD9$!2h>+7Ip8CserPF<|2nhKR<iD}ZTy83X0In7)y86qjQG
z5j}{&CdN|^O<_i2R>fSgBt}N(-Sy_i`fu?qLd3EbvhFhF#9$Y)JToVKs1&S~GxL_@
zYxqvXE^vvmzDMJ`g(ebb<&0%bVz%$tScax_TeU&NeI&hwwj%Q;w<0Tq=8ayCPVFsd
z?U!)X7tN*}Mc*ad4W>h*3x7_M_!@822{m9IaNy?2qoXe+wDf(9+j{RMr1W)-iK{r^
z@yTV#!=nQQbh3T28OAk(w&5(v9e3VPE(%6LKcaBDa4y?3RbX90a<l34oA~y~qRlRs
zD=bWu_17=e_q;FE7mg0^vY0cPGn=zR&%1`ACmB5&RfJ9?!l%*eu=FVa<rqY5F`(qk
zXU*r%mu6}y>lD<eOwgFNARepn<==;Vu~l%P&U&wzv$0o|r~-#*se+jMDTP3J6iZO_
zN2aLYv4XxTI>J;%D0pz*(mkwEO7{4xk?PSviMJLPeU3V{*RN`0O(7X6rp$6ABmXHt
zRs0z`JEs*XF&ch3gs`Q3dehLc9U+bkqd6f~4Ff^f4A^6#mY&;pH}6-X0;Wd2^$8@n
zRLcQEsd8TYBK$1w%kA(|!<e+^dR~*w$&St?MR*o>daFZ#1r^{9l031la|MJ;LP&Uu
zc549bgeo*3PxyH9$p8tTWQ`9GUu3lF3CE|F_;YgSjqK->5>7&BzK>gi%?X9hr#km~
z0cmY5+kGc$?J!SK{97fmZw1UPqxh)h$?!wuaoMum^B!;&SGl8J4Yl%fv3gc>%ALa~
zQ*X5M3mN*K5EVsaU|LvAr5gTZ@M!+ttXUOiDL(a;-}g{swlN(AUaz%n=ACY;yc}QQ
zD|kv-Y0M2HnfgHS(rgj3jL~&e`L2ZKFYWE}SSs2ZXSLrjS5%c1HAQg(2{DW1s+ASA
zi6$udtuwZzP35&F1{M%uW{=rG&W6B4C#uE(1{I^q+_wWX`kg|W0Bn=k!E+IIj#^(j
zHnaJI1XJp~B{;5|DgpOP9lz7hqJsx$5ejzxIBF&cH8jRC0%XnP0|vcRWh(46%7}i<
zL&iTsI`MN@b4xr=u?uJ3eoJgrO^V}=b*&(z8|U&C(?@rUMm5O{U#!5;xPLpYBuDN~
zSoV!<;G7`Hm}b$~uju2qym=nelC7VLu&QOR6AFumFdp|_@xK#$?|H6ttPs@#<2xwu
zDHEbAVJzKMK3N4ecA9%+vEu3?i9pb<>E}h$kdj?}qHEDkb0*u;R8>}z(%x1>E~-=2
zqNB@31ezH4_R`s7^wi3dwo=RCvPm3IZBG4B#hpQHL+%JOt4J`4NfwcDEIhNncs@ZC
z++6-~<(ur2)2wr$PY&`_F`nHRUq2e$p_K>ToFX76lYlzmI2JH4_Cj6{UiF$S06`X!
z??BEn3X%pMy=}i7ugq&LSk4b<iC4;He<GONA`+c`qSJnDPB6ci%FPz7w~)+Rmd~YV
znB`jXw5;DXNt3ThgV`Q9hlLy}t)jD_HmsXWo>btfCbpWY%j+Gu4EtCtF5cHjBFZ+o
z+=2K1XuIbaUxL0-@MGhQ?K8G*+qP}n_8HrrIb-9DZQHizH{N-l_ulMoayPr1%_j9n
zbyas#-Dy>IeLr0glfV<}ofLBzSj2&tLQFZ$T}T<KZ!GGBfR@lzf1k-B=$4h3SCT0G
zJ?&h`hMRk9-M?p`0Drt2Q+PzBgNrL1NPk*KF!U4FisCc`9unCxo4{a3>=yF)x0D)R
zkJZ}2v0ZgoLPg2c(7K85U&U(bPFI7ysq<GhpocW@s7BQ*F`!TsCWGdmn`cGd6HX8<
zuP^Vz{oRWCPDknJsf#u&$TV&h4KMXpvhvYH4c+aDx>(q;`{gwh#S}vK{9*liW3`jE
zS7x8K$xG4<B+>qH&=&h#ZNAXpzKzi<V`POzww4=|saYY`!6L3&O@S=nh0F#!4Py^6
z+5stTM)DA5Q$+=}d@L{=mF+4SXJO!a%Pz{bwL`tlGG*he^e|>)YIUSczFvwmea24h
z!0dfZK$uh`Jw>48o`u@pEP*q<Yq@Rr;{5XT^z=M^R$y(X-m%b_M5l3Nz~Ddu6L+}s
zYq|)S-}`B^;rsy&gFIDz`d{c!q$<%|zXOuNFC={&SYgtVN3w2ya(Zp$4)49qspxy^
zR{ZrYi6qS={qD*N1=@wt5G8F}^QNxvQndD)+HxHYqYQ1`uHU;Vm7>JWPIj*{_MaUc
zp24wLq?}8fURfKZO>Z*OaGfIs6LC7tAF8%uhF)0ON`s%|IbydL4?$0(knWjT$bKm$
zq47#Nbw&^snAA%pE93ncmN87^ST_cpUTQ{m6#K#5P*&j@rj7ZO?F<2;O{EU3|ALU!
zCHQU_J#ffqTzlY!#gfPzuP`n0Za!FBlKu3orrp{aXc{=Z(`vW7e^)siwRU2+s*Ya1
z>e=_m`n8y-O7`je6U^f69Mw|L*ms&xQ3^|}G^xTyZ_;sfSUM*ETUkXj^6yWjsZfCo
zZ4OPQu6kX5Yun|YmV|NL%%Qa!;7d2KzmWV?{UAoI!CbmtbT3yy|01wXXwu|P&Ydcn
zHq9~V9%W!QV=!5TS(}-tG0*ADk_#}0(ZQl|Rrbu}G%+5bbDvq$zax^ZNJ|P*kQ;H?
zr6*?v@5z^!Cu=E^{Jx=~S|ddcU2QHeZ{=Ow0=k83`-0F8X}^wgv-B52avwtwJ^r1h
z^grB$hD{=G%M-szxD6j(SRUcAGJBsts3Nzgmtxi%4bK;3WFgv7)~-M9l7hago%|E0
zzZlQMX;J{#5VCJ79xP|L5ZiVPow8IWn<bSRZ5R(^<!x$mGyAERUHqxRO0gAe<JaNy
zP4!b`2oSRHz5gOC>KGQ{d~>uK5)_a785a_G;;=I#wb2t6t0{>D)4T5(*8KDDHQu-5
z>qNXF>|a}G;lp)!<g2xmltfn#MJt+#2ds^guGnhYzXpwI$Wq<h#muUUG<f#TEu|C{
z!T|W(YD<cimFdjQJR2mBKlPj?##PjBJ?&A^V;yJAaG;E@^_%3=CwzCX&IHsZOz<a6
zSU8(CnfydAuT|bYQJdk0R4uXk9iA@b)lM5EX?9q6G+CJ}A?uYB>(cWv;8&`9&&bq#
zDBNzc1CtXY>_hnfItq^O?`o%F=%7qmMNWc_O=qH!5tYSXx#t9kAMPr8TdQ$3Rh7zE
zC`!<pl3{JI>{8<n*wn_~aD1qOtG0W&;q8V$$~)Vrj{zd-d1a4D?|JN^d@<jfeGq)o
z=t|;5nI%TuLj|mdhk;orb}3qoIe&4J7L`@i%#=BF%rXKBPKRRxRH=}oS+LOBlgR%d
zl+sJ578YRVMWIU;I|(C9_V~TQJ<(0};OD$jd_!kX_?tD_{Wb^TaOhAW8=BX*meNd5
z?O0Tmn)8`2tn5u_?HVY(i=42ev$SNWZ0{syGGaCMdCAu9<BOau36|IG;QBa^L;$!8
zY7KUL4V%B?t|33!wcT{I%r<oR6lEh#kTUV(PmpLeHBJ!DaL7fe@eIBTuy<fIo^
zChE}Kh2lJH5v8rGFERZq84t&k6@Fk+C2J(2U%6(Cph2jb&op%f=(4%fbv9+{ZX}be
zV5?9CFC-r?N5h!~&!5k6JL|MO>bOCBjIn%@x#BqkO$o67qUSA~qZn^YB#(cG*eV{C
zrlayaSoNG$Hdp_RgSy$NudECFGM$b_8Uu>43j1NI$$`a%Kc7JQrI`HUi6FF06(&M=
zNH&)I8*9Mi4BZL3o3TAvd1b6A*Px=tQ8>rDMs6nbh?I$2b0GH^M77qNOyRG)CJS+a
z48>|H&SHg$kp4s}I3T=F$vai@4Yyhy1h`s#Mp9Pud45+#+_zhT7#WMHS4+DcH^dKp
z`La2ZS}Ro&`4{=pP^F9KQwCFD316_jH<JO@mqul;Zo$W&p%d(J`Grp-&mnPG)_+DR
z$$rU(JoL>b+zX9U^I_WPGz4~XC*+7}P0O&b9`2S*jU25;wU)Lur|-j7=Q;z)ZK?YG
z6|ZCH>8<8()w`tWFSt$YNTh6?YzbLa(}6TWDQionQmn!==>>l=%RZ`uN|sokLZ8lk
zGAiwc0gv*CLB~N2QhynQWwW}TO39$xnFa3;U*4;#>Pap5fESj-Xa#LCOYPM1cB%L3
zQccD-8R;9`U0K`9qAf_LGRTvrKgv%ZNI{2-nN!Y3Hv%7`g3?0vTfxpB$Af~X;xpSb
z3jdm_V5x!^NR@X}A_aVQX%c0{@Chg)&cayFUceWRoib*6Mf}<5P48o&^i7*Q0^FKo
z2WKOV!ds0KCCYp;X%;bGoiSBNfmmjV@wF?`l|7HLDv1Hjh$UT^L}K$$2BzpHAYDRG
zL(b6|9T|_x>PAme1dkh%0yBRQC&}>1xi(Uvr;?J|CbtKT9wbVRR1D~3NvG=GBwAiR
zWghzG#dAo{TKQdNTh^F8S=U8ql6z2-=RMA^Mqf{a<|T&cljYP|RUk}CDS;)$wHD1m
zEtk1R)!T~s=~XBXZTj;UHDMebqG!|}el8%}z+)Vub0-J+y3adV>zUcrLr?hW6*E$S
zH;E7pr6|uxpdoAJvsm4d0NiRsDT_m4&K4&)#Az^?W9AF<v|!Ph<hDczKwwSt`HTuk
zG>8?6sW;`#@C})(=_;0Z<luuSlhw?-MJub)*qCU`6N?4bZ#@OgRR4+5{PGFR>iQ_$
zGJHN`X+M>6<<lp7Mk77ZEk8)|F47axZI_#0&rY!~70E(_=v#z^Vdl{YwUL^OepD9H
zwX5LICd=irV~kofgMWslmFgHhV2!YBA7bGYa@A%vs-Lso`#Lr7czXc=XNQ_dFp(8x
zDX_-C=S~8K5T~sN5f__U8(9<Cp5G8!yd253r>>gatO!g|bmDnNKYuqEUGp1P-Q^|x
znp>O|3|4MIQH6ALxIc<aYj?L4(qL&OE6SCjW)^V9kl1g=GPTlgvk06`Pcxm6Ql2BN
z8Cq`olWHVoH|=H$HrZrw$E>_no13lmRJ~q|&P<$9ep8|@XNSx2Iv(j4s38)aEQTr1
z9wQEWASsR&FVw=$QOXJx*I%bH8p+RLQ71JP(B|&*5z*G_rDO8yBU(bbzE4cGkk)1r
zt0iSkYe!k2YN^?B$x~EkJJ%l(&~oURqp60q)f(4e$MZTa?aS~>3{IFU?j^?u?Z#Wo
zP^I5sFbJb;op1wgpz@RHyL2i(SNfRPb3q<YQE`d_@q(bpPRQa7jQZ#ts><S!3r1Ec
zS<I=X>2Qn67PqxgN;PW*uI6N$PjuQlu%F-9nVKh!w0D#1!?GHEn#j>G5>?qt#&JX*
z=Q|tnm|%-&?zBw<VIn(ifa!6fAU3>q^Y!-pvi~Qu+V1bVy!fsZ%-lMuyPaLe3V{>F
zM17CTh17h}(pZ!;A-4VRa~aXY*WvZLhs#4Lg16~zeZcxNRY7^?Xm?=<YHp-AOjSdg
zW|S&JXA)3v0+AY0AA={qnlv=*cwR#iss|9=8!2y1uz6!2Y+_39fWt3)kGB}_r&9+Q
znVp)Wg^C&G%i<l^{5tOWFbTbarVf$VKUxV1)&Yj}Wd0|h#yGtW1sB52HLtM+UKFfY
zaY}zb`K#ICd~j_Po{M)cR;ewO?|EA!-DA91q|oL1=#eoHHFs%BEKQGCMf<VLj26lQ
zZcUZ*XyO<Q6**Kx0JbDmlbXH0+uIvvQg&tdd7rY)8){{}v4*LhawQ4>(F^Wo5y7q5
ztT^pN3s<jf6Wt{%n=E$if)Rrb=Wo?^i?_*vt&=nxzz%%yyIdf$auz4Dvo#+KHj3Us
z>x_exKO1cvhVm+2ab(YlV`v;OAqbtSJdHWB9c<T{|J$+_`5NbX^YxEo*F92B277wO
zyA&5zUD6kd4)#d5$5D<;zds!kxf}@MQSxrKQZ^>cO~Loi1NKp3|NfUB4bn-j`_Gki
zcbq0quz(`p`DpPuT~r_C3M<WO1U%F`(8J=r9Hq(JVP?j$y7a`{;dF^!mUW&Y;Ab%_
zkLGy{c)N+6?tOXM`ByJw%2d&Wo|p3er`LozBU*dn9w)lm$(syq{C>2?Ph50t(H^TZ
z-`ahj-rhkpN*?y;%jVX<?-9emP9|}`D%fFb2Yt>LgSY}PBBb@aBzO$?7`4SH^mtn+
z@Hv?fei}9xX1<x3Lm(`+mQ5rUjY6g5BUkrjox=%)RQm8AxWx%N3yiNzE|K`}N~Ple
zhnb-?$iiR8--Md+7Jo%J6B7R1`xnIYoD#e_dA+ya8|}*O()K)e&N#M-HASpU|Jwvt
z{#cH}>!R!4Z8Y@jgw>C?9||vc^!=dmLn!g%do!G+uxU(yl`=|>1)(4aRbaFdtSN_g
zEy7=nep5glnkB>*a%{q~&B;A}0UYLPmzJG{x*+(*yytxVicEmpijB(`pX=0s#&0wx
zFmnXWeaQex{2IiUdc1A-<2`vsDri)Y&ZP|DMlr=cyM2me0zL9ZF(pcl|2<C365~Ir
z%NrBIO{SVfVQf-_FO^JLT%0SLY<XBD_j?>Jd4_CU=&(pPk|`$quP9>Bk+8v-j|xPI
z*<!p}Ab63%0EHI3n@fRamn<Z}mc8jw*b-D@C)8?|3*cG+KHCCe!w=@|*sM3JciIiz
z!aM7Xe%XrfRvpsfcRDxoasiGP)ZLa#ce)316?*Xa@O5!y%{$9An3wi&?KO+31#3I!
z{I2t{u#{&>w;929JF+i!AcR!@^kBR@y#rBV*TXiN=M35efkG0I%O0$%5Is;P{6W*c
z9SHgJM)JX=?)+V;;lj}2HOfkjjT1545&l+$1M)Z1^+E^sZRHUjz61Rc;dz+t=^0Gx
z0_TLa31IG8d!dhYF_VR*yYg_BiEOI=onO`JUtY_8eC{^nwepCF@HFh@ts`82oxA<C
zRp0!V;$_TpX$gZMx5_^l7U3Yu=9D1lb0e%H+zV273&$(SA%Ma^NOcYnR-oa3W3Ve7
zS*WIhcyY(G2&CTiZOqsl5TDJ_<iL2l;&oh*;c)EgFi799!fz9jl+`vKt1A(UAI=&I
z0$+#*HKx9Yt>Mk^F9`Y?m!G$(q)=M*4$=haL3({|NAH=ZjNieZ{JF0xsgu+`$`43Y
zl1Uq&|3f1Tq;T&4uV{q-gG(p)U;Nw;E6d98BbYi!m|B`!xDft0yZ-~Gb0MT<`l<Rc
zUCn>AQ>OnoK|=rKjncCIK&7<I3_rdn6AJ?&Cp)9=e=5ZcZ7pp)DgKA7NcrDoKa?#K
z;eV(ErT-Mj8QPluFAc{3((9CeSXdWh3wk+wCtE|C|E#b6-_2rYV4(kR)kx6J+{ToU
zfnM3g)K=}kTJYa&!+&l5zvGPb8vkQ=SlE8Jh5zX{{|9dSza>GK82*nygOx!(xq<;E
zI4BU%k4ZzK0#xw7I;#JV*tZ{+m;HZQxIYvGD+km6nS#)U^idUk=4<W75Q=tz>W7V=
zMH3MK3rYB4A&8QHH=!a6(a(boK}kUGQUygs{aR@@m`z)Cu-z>zY>NV)=;(A40SDjs
zo6z<CU7DSiCZ70t^#!Uw&3-aHnd4?Yosp3sDAHV!PIJyiRb>6L)8q99YLN@-bdN#*
z2!73Xi;y_?XVg-Y!+!lz-ycsgd~_kJTrJwN@h`Q`U5Yv5+~&(Kb6rKj>&2qGzAq6p
zdqUq@Vv6%?%LEw}f4F|zXft{pt<LFOUnqLgb9S5M%?}-``4j2FR}`de4sQ3euD0LS
zIP+;lJ@#_fmqDLZBRdjJCzy%d{@X!8p3DTy!6Frq3A%8aZsrGSP88#7*E*5NO-l1z
zGS)It#Em`1nWeTF&*ml_&??8oD_TIYqqnaVffT1+6cWS0H{E931X$cd%omnrxgOkF
zAzd%T(^sfpNn*^WT21PVKjTj>+}#oc%J?-P8*-hez+UMfO?i4nh^PJll&<LvS=Z{a
zF=6<~&4ug8UC>^=<R&d=ZXtME{pR6V$A9s&z64!cvC!8~Ecq50Eq`ATn)tC)uPvPe
zpgOxnR&`+Y^h-I8y4e95w|x<85@j}-0w|WqM+$W3{3%fuTv}#iQ-y0R;$g?TYb+mh
zA{H=4M<l7cOZCU|JO;qD#iC7^-^YRaRl@sgK3IAp(zo`My5bWSoVxPtr#sTc$6h>|
zWCPNHXf7mP$7EWRSkfh$qE%;RkLy}m;urLoS_DR<O@VBMdG-bT*=hEbNF8Y3c12T|
zh}ss^TY~OJI-9aDA{MQZpSmveSA*$DGc7`m%1n2UoL-^1#o|AVgj9<upO$PhRI7A>
z&48yx@P*=lsv)V`RqO9XEoudK#a3k9g_7A?IO%$g)}n}Z7)DjPN&*o&c9EvRn)2ZN
zC03<^nuf2X^;@;}gw&0L+`80u?J%(D#oYKELGD}d)csZq)xK*`b(^xoy*F=RNB6N?
zf-}E2l(&7sF%7CI&|SoNVL*%f0*OkP{}N9&<txQiA}>b1Q)T|h8T8|!@*~St${Q>%
zciNX@O)ZpVZUO&7BPJ33EZ-yx{T_jJZuqrm4KJZ9)d%t?xFM2ss9u3Oqj0xe_$j<s
zw4T_h?CU$BQ1}_1R~jF~c~H0P&aOKeo?B0`7t1f}-n_Z#msyj{YzB|><gp|&xzXuy
zTy8RB7q9j5M3S&F1RO4t+x+Ci;=w>@&^P^sTKl{zZ~dhz^OXtui}?awA8r4v<tc1k
zWaWQ$SEpKvdhx*-Yx#7PUxJ)H0-f0bThsg|qo%}{Goi%nGKna+f~@6c*#Y$8Vh>9(
z83E~`NQ@{dlOYN+B*QE5Z@SAvY5OnWUzwLLSF8;S%zf;n?~OizD1YLA!fweyU6CT9
zg<<ri8VgPIdq?j|z#wSps3gZE#r%$%i;_Mh!ROLk3+_+X^PBrX@ID^KV-Y^#B_|Om
zeaGwRme6Y9HSQ?el|e1fGAPID9UV25#3h+(e`aOxrg*-VMl&ry=zFI5lH$A!E9l9c
za4CN(JCmD1RO|evs#lVdT85xI!#zEfM{v=3Hf2_6C!8J1%SJxE6gR6V5~gPWk@Jb!
zQNM>Rxcx#Iv9@w*9!4Q}fQ6>2#Iz#gF_)vjk&1X58j5VNS<MpggaV6NU{+lf_pC=t
zo^5tk>zzcBf4)l^HXcec@<W!&J%~rqP5D#wO;2ZqPBHzUy9{1K|2=ZRpZgA?)|uV)
zK}_TfEA=rpR=G870)hNT5ZTF9S9!eCRrF&MSH-BqBJ6QeK>fQ*fW*Hr3Mf?mvF|ZP
zCPRcAmPHDt_jaxVL|6HbXuA(3Dd$*a05QG4*D<rp54z%ssDF8&u7o&_d<4ZJDOA=Z
zO*xjWg=vw4!i{#&IGcurgCQ|0^kDkR4BH?=|7r|^$3Jwje~4pBwMa|MCXUYfGA#be
zG^If;{fLg*BM3N>zYK?DJf*`z<;`53NwXY879Y@df$Ot63=TlcV-ewL5ScF~s&~|M
zJU;;ujao8w+6PrM^c)gEqDu0b@r*7tiUx6gEJ6Jpj#ejD8b_BueYJVSBC36gK_Z%b
zI!*L38a0vzn-ghMEcIx_tRFD%lko-O|MTsVf{0dmQMRf1a%U0F-^$Ca^wO4BYIqT<
z;-p)ZLcq~u5||m<*g@e$<5~?1pJt$7Hz8s~__e<F_jq2WA~Dm;1>9ITJygnb6HaDl
zfqO7MfCbXf?E!K8>D|aDSjy?8W5|>A2pXF7LCGoVErRDmxGWXG%=A7q-Vit4MdX&@
zp$aO+sx<OjZyDTK-l%;?BTX;Ypn76-+J_86?Ye_81Fh7M?C7^yO6ySLq`8j>w30PU
zjY3p_JeY`F5mLmTJL9}Sa9x_bbtR&KS8w<~9Tdx0$^TYVIxv?rX4j<B2wnFfa~7+i
zWMj_QhS*hIW}Y-fNjWw54+_anr9Rj}!v67t%lLmg4LmMFi@d`kgEoIg3h@h^LQ-^#
zpLSznilKnUk{lQR!R0@uge#YcVqH{d5=rgp{>x3qd|g{l-muTGNCvW&5vY~J_`-cR
z@XNkV0AVp0bm+DHhfrWsE`AzDoSNycJAy+pwa7<zDlc&sh!JFp#f+0kj_(nK9Df}8
zIl~)4G;@Zenaj+__Ha@1iN5$w-BQXH<hshO)g(dv-Cu3@l_TQxsYPg$W0{yz$j}A5
zXrx*Hv?565-i#D|;1XzUlzza$xw58-jZnz~mx^@i28y^;`$-gPsrg)W%mr$tkqCca
zbUh#KC%No*Yid^BGBv4*_jVeCG%FUm8Om0m<h$NllvBWd)ru;LE`AbcJ$AFK|3hVt
zrf8ZRiyjH=xD$3}e64zHF1UL+9#k}nE3bLr$Zyh9eBiQhr}mrFdlCG0bu{EpbG?fm
z5`>e9@`V7+YLFsE3xv+0zd%N-sG(jWB~^5t$q{H)SJ_HHmC}b%gBJ;rulX21)isyP
z+g813n+^G1Y`yeaB08Y;Xe~MXr{Q6=#SV69L)Dl>`I5~MXFg(?b){4t;2JX?fJzH#
zc?hZ;kk!;Pxh`xfhnM*ax)b>oSPtY>CTm<~0}o;i_}*$4h7cYToF=>nZFYM*#v^Og
z+Rllfg`1GqK=x1D*!Y4EesdGKa>fbh;no@MEyw`nw>zU$-vj8;hV3m~?-=L|nEL21
z<R_f!IZO+57y{9<kUmS{PI`1V=;phYLTh5f)-t=%swGX2#5b#^gnRR-b`1`ctr>8e
zEU6k{mUo>x*mBf#L;8Yi5H-eq^dcImH<k_{yg-o}`sVorJJKmGSm^?NDV!_3WCPqX
zrGvIC=rvp?s9AhW*cgaoVSnh^$+!}wM*hULoh^&*urA;S<;dn^#VPqh8}ahR1HrG>
z&^kN~Do>)iEEs<be>DNV(B%ma41=`bJRo(6L?={uRR@1yKlsqb@{*Jzh?GH(O%d)u
z@1{)%n)weJ4OP^WGkJB<ey?CJ&8k`R#B{kaY(*vff=DC_SA?99vZ|o1;Fg2;v1Lr?
zn3FnpI#cg2U`&{ZEMt2xGaz1y6)xc<I*4PRsFzLAJ4JDdZ9lLNyQz0k0~N5Q?M4oe
z3zGaN*8P=!?mzwada9q3d<DBK#UA#MQLP9HGZLd6xv^Jni0<(@hhJu0^6WS_oz8?8
z!e*d+2EYl>GQnTS2A$3Eb}ia-TnE}O5n?@0;-{=4xcNzIO5-XAaLp`L7M<pm9_sKh
z$@hHj;mO@|1gwnbG`jrYGdK-59C^48uIqnyzaThAqKaI=V>UQiqXwpnU`DMw9bxVW
zN;n>X2oIeXr}?BDp9`Zw*SV&%qV7KDhJcSYK{gAIunoZK^d4yU>f97?%;}$ELYl#x
z=jE)N(YcgT!_>#On|jAfDwdUEmYAg2{uOE-OHhWVdt27k=dEXM%!=>K(vaji#jah4
zL(MRe8S~+Uw~3P~nQ#>|`h{MKMGj*eVpvXQRWv_=x-zO8#A*xIOjS|L;Re6jAk~Rh
zud6DGq>M~DnqMgJHIxD=skft~qZe!d%dqQ&+<;tz;{SOAAsn%a{_qR5`^6x8?hZ^{
z{S1W&ZWeOi)>j$q;Jb@lK@Ez}W-t849jL4H0)N{MjWgf_?Sbt00-D!%oUkl@WU&i#
zAiGL*18Pr|Pe%f#(7Kc`F^N;6WAhQMmZe_Tz5f@3Eg~iG$(8j<kxk@QwZ4?no5-V9
zBP*r*S4h@wT&i2In$^Sw?>dKY&7K`f2E;|n6O;`~GlFq9+%(es!mpb_uXCb~CCQ>O
zIjviEJ(M9Wi`+!(82+YIL%XF5wTe$Lv`SZ4SMKY$#EUs|7wB5<WvxtHE$P(Cr-4j?
z3MXEutWLb9<n)ys87=B%j7a2FEf8pcT&FRQ-SGMf{M}awBTPCZBP84ib6{Y4eCnT(
zOF8Yy>uW~?ECu~(YWaM>(1Z<!Wm#-PO@Nz+T)HUUB}5bES>x<CO3ks!n(>)hEKUHK
z96k2MV@Z9vJLrkw`o2wR1<0}2TH2fi`P@pkOn6J^Ec(HA2`5MczxXWvTHXT-dQtp(
z5}FzJu~*b>+zRCq(sN2!3*<sb4Msz258;F}Hb7u4R<CM3uF+rlljc&TrCUKhv^yQ6
zrM$;Yi+Gy87ewpy70I&+<U8)%J5!Jh$dhGkx`f9b72vb#PB;GzwE+*R9T$6Z#%D>+
zI&TsGMOW%&_^g0oPPx2mgl%6t()i>8S*N<eVI2Ay)R794Zx7F@mui)DXlM|IPu+iQ
z#BBsQe2K8SsjC=o!K!zuonXebpHsSq&wrVN8d9d9Y>wtK5<qWR>Wcg<?e2ha@s4U`
zdjbjosSm?ZihtUX6Y7kpcLjTR1CAvzf_GvzJYhw<5CLGveY_8lNi;JvJTn<6n;OU}
zTknF@|J9T?>;iT(w%TW`C}7ShT@9{}bDgzbLK7fw|Em7ElNse$%FP+oEI2zeU*K68
zLl%r|#@4rO^(g%<h@AFr+JYwLi7Cusob3j)>0R9pY3K&=i}2dOy0$m674v6rJkGbn
z#;o#3X1HN1oa#Ii1-_8%z)GjNlaIN=<pNIDR<^`i4x+>y$r((C$VEHY&=htTXjMGb
zER0_U&e62eHGiPgg1R)eWDlQO!QBZ?Ra0h~l&>S>F-z7+87_ia5d$ziXjKyhs6u-q
z-#(Ys>;+u2SN(Yo?`dCiVXm9hiQu9wwsB^S1x3$*PFF|CClCWRSbyCos`U;e?Nu_U
z$IH)nX03yyvV?GmbqrwB;I#}6W*zHWKm5c9a2?o?mz=@(k^%ZMuXpB$cNn(-JC~N=
z?)A$K6WW3H;VG`mVd~2R4kOA2=ESj`!|DouLRmh~0r=?$e7B+8x%JCM7ZoU~8~rUG
z{P+SN29UZ`bcdFvhcnO<l<^Sa9Tder0h`ck8LIZ0U4*{oV+_0TVuSF&&;XSJ^W_7j
zLmz?`k^Y%w%PMboMLF)XW+X^e<gS7`^1!xbNbWGQDb|{qvq&a~Uj;)2@)RI2$fS9Y
zi^<Eutc`G1d*#w`dF{xl@&WLLVSb0fBju|&Bf_)rmwG$^$0W*IfGi(fADhqmgK!^d
zONGm@BQAIxaE=2reP=ZtBb?iQ2&tzRRpfD^9ynpLGC>l_a=9{lE8{rx++zoJ(X;8b
zXIZfpo0!7{G%s3K9vull++xQjr;7#Wlm)&A{8REifsg{0?^~z4Y$sAAv4nC#>8>sK
zM^*n<ecpi(@)S;HnFqF)J)}ozW(4G5(8H~#fUZUOM_-?JdG!733G%E@DhmA{f??_r
z)qoCP80C_T1#V|kw->M18u{sz(Vn*mapE-5C9RCzr&Z|OAh{PGkfr1PEsYsY@@$a_
z8XG9>+GdJbOxLvI1lP0A_=0&Gn>rGLU~Oe=umb+V(~=F@#eO&5u4qh8e5l_s19H@>
z2M$Ok!k?Fg)7J0MG~bM8<pV*0=3P#6Gm5Qvw%j!CZCyg{&^0$KPrfARLg^Qyg@mqH
z!BLi|?#8ls-(K=2xqj&7qeZmZ>dOp>yBaWh`F%@R2iu0&2JThwt_Zt|-16@iWD|5!
z==0r!zzsA<tZ<w3gs2b|_dGA@p=fO9r^;zl=+^Juz*uMQW0k-QMZZ;<{xTG{@LTNx
z-+PCDIDR7157r$+_XbyTCEAnW0kKfzBs_t3jQBtZiN<~~y#3EMJlY|i&PdDIh@>;a
z>)hKkrGn`=HmiyUQ}pGbIYI6Fl84>EtJ0Qrj8$NlLM!m$&H6wW(s-j>M3yiFLcI>U
z?6{*vsR8X-YF3++KzSyv>2iBw$yf<r^R`XcJBDbFu>oQ8J21dEsD7!pd52zbn<YN<
z#29?q4jkK_VniGQ1?Qx|pW9-i{%9t~yKcZ2bjEE`wdXbCv_7;%!SWYQEXX&=SA^%i
zH!&f$3M3m05Yd~HTf}th`?BCmW<vBk-U_{3qL8ng@7A+74dbGks$MrD=O;N7CL9(4
zCv_Jv0ovHm!{m#y`_|`l0^g-3zzfl=g8At17z}QN(+Cw8bOleTVT_{2EUZZYSk^=j
zBx6*8_p)$M+wX`co?%JYra%D{rr%m3y@brT`*?+T3ifO0fai1R9nwH8$vgwd55_d3
z95f|<+=nw7a{QjP3(N=a&6gZ64QeR{yM^7>rr;WcyhUwTXJc}nfv)qjs7HNb+8c}k
zf@a85U&B4`DBc~B?s!;ziNomTe-!6PRMA#4rucgoaALXgps}}GMm^#Fi{jI3C+qwO
z8!L!ct?v2Op1I;*ii+B*+xr>nfY}?$Z!A6lq7|<rzcBAf?+kj+szdPwwQr5gi|C>;
z!uEn{mvplF^?|XRV1{___w~eu;^7<dGUVZRV$P+Xt!$yj1;ugzEz44FWQ(j|XJ7n?
z_YJG`7_2@y0iPV~<UxG{-@c8Iq4%n%2>fnN6{{Ku?;&Rhpa1RyL@a_(p<Z{ut4}J>
z<@^aWZy;{I0w61<aT=NUeB=bo&>T#fcp3`goBRZHAD8gsCt|0rfH?r8!qH+!zv)Q&
zdh0gHXz1NUe{#f|UtIsUvFrw@_o?KmnSyusx4CxwMfawik^S=Lc2e;(#L#viXTrL+
zya56hf`1jisU+_Q%jB8U4&t*?^(Hflaq}-X2c!~DQSYnZt3?>c_*o7>$idP2W^gL-
zMSq|xFQOw8_~F-s!;5qK$(#83zy;5J4=$f++@$)|5V8J?s3|jHPZNBQ{XQ>v9jIIc
z%kjl^^YI0$@k=l6Z1D1U{TgV?i@u_~p){g+M)MR>yFQf-kTdU=rGMEo2XCu#oH_G$
zPPnTspuDgLvr1xPM#kZrl<-ASw`u95js#so-#jqF`UC9yFUfJdEvE4;dr7Ts_e+Nu
zp!;N9J8qSkp!fY)$3NCmK-h34|GI{?Vc<E*+~`xU_9Y*@A;f+PiatEVD)`*j_*3Tw
zF%4+WLcP_?U!(ue!Jc9_;z#*=T)=h~9u&=rce8aho=M2f)cB{ycG6XZxfNonh|b|%
zR18UO!BmWLGSSFB(s_ir`|4}?&WHfhe3wY~Y@F}ZO-0@k?m-iM>`;0<vNwwW$;B`D
z#IF*LMlbbqW`lUzx|=egs*tE^meqJ_OZ1QFFf;d6nvt#i)sY96vW?4)TR69j#*E|L
ztf+Z&UMwd>d$j(2nKGR<^IMc9tjU@>d;7AC<s6pfcd`_**dh0H*^*nsaUOfcidLu{
zl1tGp^SY*2wmCfWoX?P)u{%wyah6P5@vdMF`@2bI^cHRWt3Tdx{GIgF-l%NujIj)H
zkcbDm4++;w8P6f!{O62lH$<;=$?Ca%TXZkk!`e8CkhU{ox#5!B$~@d6wv3QXtqq$u
z)m3{JQOs+yQ0j(q6k$2D1fKQ@Cni^kr3l-MYJ&qW3SoS7Njt&_IlH`Sv7CnHF(B-g
z?P#WFKMEcM2pAk}4&}YxrBVm%Ep*(Q8}hr24<A(Zta%8S3($HLFT2<(R)LU7_tTpG
zYP-JwZp*ndKXfJELy`pq%Zjg8PHHs3hW^7xKKJadecQ$9ku$d%_C6xj(Pd-8Ef4N{
z-&7)b$PdQRPvL#usk+SYYZZZa<0_c7e`bmJ>NN#>&)mu<&JF2=6T>+y*#0H%+?l!k
zWM!qJ)9WkA8hCfGUtQfiuEI?|pZ>Tf&?+uPVx$poah(eeXJ6`UrNR^D0ra>nZxFwY
zL!9}a8v%<y3Kx%lFeiOpi^ORAjIU(rgu;6w!m>bn?N;=#QSL*y;FN#sEP8Le{hJvy
zW2^rKJ|oJOzqIB)e(wjn!en5&`uaw6Jw!~2wr5Y$g9g_)&2gK1;0c32kMzMIS3@Y7
zbR-wIUMBIgf#QkHs?eIzjLKnbdslb*h6(o>OK!VH+IA7Hy>ru;yu}VE>Isdo_KIL0
zZ&cgD+%Ufah5`P$_aOcre*N}Hw$jcgh_!9*7LX@?Ayyr1%Z6qhDFoq{4mP!qjWU3_
zwU3`ma_exr#-c3L;zhX5cJS*_I30ysfn)}!Tv%~c>+{#W2kb>vFVHF>^Q|npLgfQh
ziC1ZV?JM~!&(kb^5yjj&jJHTN(W&@@c<}%;H$1W@hpr{svVt%my>37fka3Kaoc1{x
zPH{#2A#-G{Hv4POUP@p2J!5_Z)!f_kJZAd3dgk>JD{l}PPy(`1p2Ts2V(!B_{UWAB
zPx+*&f9i8%y!v>s$eG6(bDl{bfY{%ty4Xk63&;fd7R|<qau)Q($BYX0`9&@}cxThM
z>bLAW>xb`)f5ms&KJq#42jaF13wRa>r47K-*f|$=bI}+2erX=Wg~91-M6hP;fpq2?
zHbS~(bP(9^Ijd7OknWY6sy8gcBDX9(5vw?P@(XLmwSKdV!HChHWW=lStNZ*Lesyn{
z?pydz@op-Lkz{3;`cBqQLc4k>IjUna`J~i20LB2CG^$a#7l(^~3y#3Kl}9{>_Eo(X
zJtWPz+di7rJ=@Be8vUT2^!GXW`o?)E8-{sh;}&8py=f=PTQzL%RAQTEUX>j%J`j4Z
z8p`Kmtd(;H!WH6R7J419XEgH~>*6|xfN?cGOX=_zpO5QVt$i7Y0s0N)dPOpgLFq#L
zeV1DHK~VH3&{*iTm5;c3m2a5yHS49AHZ%bbhAp#Z4%$Sc;ax6f2MO{sATxjt`rhXh
z8+s6fi4S?UHGl_pmRu+oHt~o<ziSXS`9SB*Ex~;6AMFVE{gZHRC~Pu4+PzNOs#A7t
z&W6x`EgSznY*#44#nko$nQuXV7uuJxVn6l(Z@(dVZX5J~zp5b0<++&mHi6^r`&8{^
zI+JTZA)QsbMoMf2?j|QZQDyXxx{-}Bb~N87SyAnMfsbfBaQLN)4zswat?VhCE&uHd
zrm>@UWjogWFW!ZN#`n<A!i2AmC>J@Qr>o;7eGr+?o!49EHb3D%n1V<R?rPJsuZsRK
zO3y!z#*sJB-%*X8@1RmI)nW9s(;GOw_DT=t`l<IZzLdv4^>KFMU1>v~_?7h2N1?HX
z^bmuuNXz=Z1ojdVe@6hC1liQ4nO#L}z&#e!;l1R2ZeN&pgImo?FQ%O=8X$*(t-yM~
zJHOEBAegLkIdwQ<%K|=fL0(Md1?#{@LBpqg!F@o(YmEDno*(*BdYQ&vAXhB>`0JMb
z!sWVbBm4zR<<#ukI)U0jv{`cJr^8%nMD$zk*_FIm-jy=Qcu^{-!eYDHm3%1ruf+`S
z>D$j<wFNhEkcsTQzay`tZS%_HZ94Y^!R%hyyF%t3x3u|_b|^fSc<^?PnT5FU!PJ*I
zeOpk7Y6>Sra+xx%o678Mi);9scrg0NU3#I3>RNR&TY~KlI`$-)m$rvqUGm^*-a80%
zPjbjyczi#rgb2Tg`w^^t3vObc0q9^Dq$cLDm1=LwY#_dXY@lK75ny3WLhquZ;%^oh
zIy<ccR0Z(+iw8hB1!C5C0jbCQKofy+y)OBuxbDYRLcV3uPrB(T*i|z~c0hwbLx%3=
z5Figjc-TGk58r{`hkiHyE*OA}op8Pz>`J7uwD8xXf8p&IC^HK;F9p-9n>?{WjRSTu
zjywSPLls|h>!NMy(OK``7+r|C>yW>C+S0AR&F4Rdv=Bv3h28tU#BXWde03(X{TUx_
zhbE0N8r?*uPj*R&2h69!V}sgRkA*|lz6`R2a}z^1Q1*BxbD`D{U6XZzzIVC8n3c9M
zqEp>rVfStjL^P=vdD-6Oy>9#=hPYhIdw8sA%b4u#M~~0#DJyS?`|Y*h^xyGT5#8s6
z9O>a#4?d*uzy^6a9QmhngPNX3VRG~db60+5SOT&~xWqK~WuydlDy(%5^mGB7qWJKL
zTk$9w0uMtu(vFC7%O_^8(*a!1k1~Z-JZbZ+Zm=E0+IcjNYKJVP&~muvw_K*&%?f`h
zZ+G|={YqDVShN1LowDnw0^Xw>h6`>Uf*7`}c+U@E9)566q>IqH;7sMFM^136auS<-
ziwo`5$@kwa8;}+40bTyj=>3k1BA1D)#*f`~WfoBu)E7{?)8;U@@*|<osf*ps6!qUm
z=Cf)B+NXTj2DXHq!&|$)i;A0}DDIOczT-=|&9{NP#*`!NI8SfPC0<&}DDv3ji9(jo
zvJ{Q0D>pF>yuWYun$w)cNJbA-&T*GtK(s60{RO;}iz<A{bFtD#QVn`K<6(+zG2G-A
z?IgOhQLQ4M^JuT%flH<-?x7>RL+^VEqMO!CMmZZ*c3>~5o<pi$l7@CnBR;?%@kFJs
zfoscjk$oT)S2Og-xx<$@Vga$Ye^o2_+?2cRJ!8T+F9K+^416VE8RFpOos$jmK3+@~
z3(})zN5a}La7EAk>JpBP0|4A5^|K{{e2_L}b^KON-w1;nPrI<d_wUs%{wRFyDUuhf
z>a91B=s0s8Zo^&Ze6KGoQQvydY+l}uBQlrooH?T>Q+)t@;v1j0Z2dz`{b~S05q{yd
z8v(mTZ81k@5ZS8sSa=g(VtAWBM8q@K`DK35zF*=>{t4m3<=imjvxQe589>a0r?z+V
zQ#Jd$@ET?CC8q0mBfKI$NgTFjg#yBK-N?O!(v8`tXf4@rWw@0s;aKZxR)62G8p5a1
z7aNk)trG|QQl4_+omteIzf5eK`%ZRRNRttgv$>+?L~t~iWtkgjXW#<$=O1w!-W8^c
zBCl63XpZ0_pV?T8!)HV{>cd>|g6PWCWo$haiHjneug%+zh#txer8fmO^2Em&gBZq}
zjcI1w{(}7G3ZOnGB_20~i;~sfwuidM6BV&9sAybI6{9G<8X`Uy_`9lSX?`(&YsGII
z>2zOevViR2s#E{^9kuIHv718jOOmEF9-%6*UTVS<=+7JAuft!gVU?Np7BE|}7C2#b
zb*r_|HJ~#S?+7?KEC<w%;yDLV9Du$kfjnUH!MvNL(HoG659k#0gmLA!?Wd>D55c#!
zU$O6~CRk;ofESQ`bbp*F>s_863EoHtZF_sxe%l6yPAj_0q+pl`XMAsvtC-r>O7J=`
zOi>pysBAI*+1H={t-4}1Wc6dc*r?p^kY3Iqmq#s~A_d~cTC*~&SC)$GiiM6Vjkcd(
z%N`;2#=qVC2E$*vp<dkki%rZUn)Zr%Xfv8ecw(J=@vo1gWKMNSuqkEzeRgIb5J|xm
z?~os@QVETUKq=vsFJIvm{Lld&uht6uF;Ate_9OT!E5^YFqQx?1p$*<r-D+}yqo&W+
zHD{QB<=BEoxtym+;VF4o7+Vy(Ls#gk4->R$;k0~?4}{m6n8$w&A(#ciI-QkhqebES
zQ-(u|b-L^y6$lTRTP35SYl)Y>i5I8ZR2?HuqWsbWObVcb`nz1=$xT*e`qwXSxLXti
zN(ETQ9{=S}VBf#wCqKPf0@cL^AMdFp`9&);I8e<Y6VjxtbX4Z{#4#8$c82!cF(<N#
zbe$0s$|O=5bY{QU&Rj7f8*_%R(a=k!T4rsy#lGUjv{bEQEO>?9#FaG6r3G4nqo
zztbcUk|=+wG6qeElb~f9GE5l9Oqg=VILM4MVhsQEnXn|ekXg!zF=CCGfF<q8C}qGI
zGbNAxA`8xdGy2p2J3|sVNrVhE<2M6VZ!v$8b^4?6e3~QynL6{?)FBmFclx8reDGL`
zOb2s&kR&^qZideEArqNyx{KL-q@*|*UV4-He4HdtQj5%o%sNA)@xJkVrX)348k6PN
z?^H=xvZ)Lf<N0Js6tdV17NhwDNl>yhhDbxDJV{<M*NjC&r7TI7BrTc3bdL;=bPgFC
zGIW%r$i5I3MjbLiGF2I>jBG=v%rSeJuc<?Q89&o|*rdFSkHJH6va<ASlY7vln~ZD&
zr|dCznI6-7_#|VQ9y6!pF?E?9lY8)_nGB!dLuIl&hF9_=e}-4?r1*@F*fDV#K9hUk
zq?Zg_!+ZQB_l&NALtC=&jIN<WSu%gqdx#`q89noR?4)2BJ=1%bq_hlNgL@1zdd9UG
z6M`g+jIQ28PqG<C&(yKJ44wfK`lPZ9o}oiYGI<8iY)SAWCo*8Nct+3UF?=#p8GOTr
ztg!(Ze4~59B*^rS$gxkEuhBz3vJx3L#<j6SJu>d}&4C}F$(?a+`cRH+BYm^aggS{<
z#?HJUW6V~@&h#FVtd(JH(1aujUPdat+PoodOpDAqeRDEo3P1S&eKH0{Y4L~q|246B
z!~J(^afAE6NHN7D;DJjzbCv$qtCMIo*uvE+1zA*DPk|I_1vn`higT3+gYZ-?-N+Lu
z8l{7-XlV!`8d{E)$b-nF=+yNRyxQeLD^&FYlqc#snNW=Kk?m5Gii&2`jM9-AXtc_N
zW)zINk;J5>l!_X2Ojv~ip`}!bwIaF5?NWynjG~caR9nB%GRp_SNE=c{m57xi@1$as
zjjEB2lSdVdnvl<=iYXbTA`_)z6pY%CE2QA6BJf}sRU(Pd>IVoRs2R(N+0ckfh}}3u
z8jvNWepi}<s&;^pLX^9FrnHGg`cawblfIQ7s#DKtM^+`DmWarwXd;sSRcUuo--jXX
zsF>`aa%`7!&p_5qKCKoZC*`7=6O4SOx^R;ktm4_A+EXu#9p{pR&XZcvid2)*sT7eW
zHA=BioHP0@;!K*U+Jp%{rxHmfwWbj%Cbgyz2_dCZm^(zFs84x8si+>wb*^bkT9{H^
zk}FENr`oSP#{=JAVUdeqNNq@2QXv$E{5y1y3Mu&~avZHvWj_YFY^iZa<#b2tLpoAF
z1yEABh8dAZooOoYQ7pty<tP=IbiRg2_1KL}p3Lz#*SBo2Rq8bsc_bO26<I_zu1@t>
z0^?gClt+D+ft*)qo=0&fU-A)-?61CWO!`$?=u<32Ky@c5x^VaFMx6x@(orPxCHY>L
zbX#%XmK33i!k+TZ|8fIbMP-Qq^45C?C>XABZ<68yhfz@&c*s;HNf8wT1j&OeACn0*
zhPbHFf{wy6la?+er6pa{jLqy;M_GBo#+7oTQD%dE;(0#e`(-NrtL%Y4XZrP<JLlmh
zn;qb}<9*Y4GwsdvBAydGVtI=>q!@)kky}PNqsSv2JfpxP>lm_688yK2AbHL!=oqn2
zn8Ph_#{qv`wklqqw$B*F%i_%b<feF8yee3)+j2x`vZfYjQD9N(k!*xBM1rbKDTInR
z!M14K6RPGJVZ@x{onVAA1d95iY*XA8Zv;Bj-L&eZb%Y<)dA6yG>aJ8>q#=#5DcHS1
zX;-8nd}3FkYFE&fF<n!tAzJ^(2z*GE<w5LxOTdwL$SLZAB6Vz;YEWs73(b*s2zgB_
zSVP7!)+XhbYy;X*I{lv-&|k2W*k||PE?YiPo()T(>C$QXvW($IY@!Lo0()g8zAmpc
zQ5g-**n1^I*cQidQC?AJs0$Q4F1mQ4v|F0+y4R%+bCXt46{xDH>WVT2<;CH-GVW}V
zg+cfo*{O6z?3ogdq+8cuUL=uflqD1e6s4H-+Sw7rYlU3{9BYL>U9hGT$RdF@XR&QT
zrH9HfDYSqa5WX<4B1*A2gIpWU2uw=tzrryIw9&uX8%m%Vb>b$3;ffrT4i(^14sIWE
z^yRvV8rtC))AyOys(n}>6gf;DC<X=Ac#s$c*wRSe7TWz#*BaU}3hAdVNwQKPC;m*0
zZ%-DF=1+Jpa6cAGlnv39oJvMN<)6wWip|NgQTt1$DY%rdDqBv`HKpgMAyF!wc9=x{
zjuMFii}F}w!J5-#QzhmaE2V_O2~Fu2noA^(qhnYAC&Ok@!lZaat!GgdXEwH|0~KWn
zO(l*p6Pure!d_H>Ld_21+=x*Y9jYC+s$V)q_7{97)(OaCd`21e3nAF`1|S^l^s{rk
zu)dw_Q3H^t4L@K3xF>wV-^u_mzOZ<>=Kb(6t~*c<g6-f&OzvPG47maB(|@r%;P!o4
zw_$!AfR3Jc0QSAAZ#N){Pu2%ZuJH2@pRNy*T(4s`e^`Cd8`eIo1%Ldrvju-u9vNTJ
zON9Kz#URO>)*YpeH|7N|w0uD0)vq|nJs=)@Zs|>e3zV0kx1sKO;5)`u&`!o4ShxL6
zgzSwtMl7v-Ec~S@wAQoZ$oNzA2yNF`BZ*c8AIz3s;W{k*5ZR9HebCW&Lz2Jki0y*x
zx?LDoPd|fS?nS;B%N;1zH3M4KjBb#d2(5kCZD@9VuI$F$ON^oWmFbTA<LO$CqLXBI
zrRh`qO0w*CTCu`9{doIE6_Oofi@$0AV3&jzh)J%Dy2eJvzQ#V_2*;LT=Qt`d!WMhZ
zf6Ve&{$&yG;9?P9r=~Gx?N>VaW$8viAqqy@C!p}4n-Cu4Ba&ba-rgHjn$KGv2`|An
zMsP1VseWjE&-zXb!TvrC06RWl^j=4>eIYG9B+7yH@lxKV8Ka(p^DGI=#F}T>%pXyt
zUJA7;!48*p3fEC;Hm+1TYLm*`Pp450Ba=?TJyH@a*P(KjN&Y+d0Uf6#36mm48h5AU
zXwk(otw@1p)YY3vuZuLEHq0d^Z7ft&q8P_x`5Ql%G~>^uBzBS$XsBcxO6q91IVl&)
z%<o+J7=y^E$Z%v<$6+u=!BfkallFuCc6L9-k4lf&`iIErpho8zJ<nk|a<1-;vnn|x
zyqp{_vqQ$LF|$_7>hZ=k7^#Q;4CbH)`S06C^wo~iBdnTD3$&VkiMjEN*O=EXO=DgQ
zE<@xPF*}wPEbua<g;<C=LW*#<;9<*CW`>z^jHe(civ?>NIbN}3w9XOqlw&N{Lb(Jd
zmjjm|<+P-%lf|d$abs+|lWa#6A(Wa;@YX2L)s+ofo<9dCp3;_*US40h7HZi$xVkEH
zlWFYk)QWM_cSlo-6ImH5dW`j<4=JX!I-|6<Er;>+Wnc4X)T_6LAIFD(BByZvOx$N>
z%{oxUvax75MaRO^OV>U^ex98LO5sv{20q>rJbEacl~4zd6Zix99#LanH$L+F&an)l
z^6LfeK!BcopJIHQ?|gj^RE6%5a5-vZInX*oOB*oifXdcEp$n1F1iUgJ9``RXK$;2v
z0@)4MWI*Yf1!B&}FCAdH6~J2*f^X{sUt&P3+@(qfNnyYu69i8d#*zu4HUyDSfFV_Y
zJ1Bq}79>LLMN2?5HiU}_Q%ry)F$6p8cff>@8x1UQ;Dih8bHIWFfrJYIo+Wq_WP1$d
zO90PE0PZfpC>|)8Me!1Fmk73VfOZL0IR$b1MFjqb2pX9Pc)x(z1q4UqXU-}S!lVHR
z38nyIeSR?JDbQSgC`Cj_grO~ml>iVzOgqOgpmrAKU$1Bz5dVPuEy>4E@6r91)(2F7
zz!Lz|6XGoM>T7`UjmsA-zlQ?A<O@RF`|q2F1H^Xd!Yx7<eAzCo2g-K9${wo+nqFYq
z-tR6j`hI8*gppl}E})qK=UW;cQ27BQ4;X}jq+2lDpkN0e{P52@#OHqFI!Lzxx>aay
z1MbmTkf~b=n_zJR>X2Q-RS?8JGml?veV`6Mp&Rc8pqsE4d-!cQ*FoHdc-5iYyKZgp
z%e^%Yu$ypIhG^9xXbvcwQ0%==b+~_nP3w}|!&n_J{o_7o>c2Uk`A5D^R=;uI^Nhcp
z|E~*u1F(A)K{>2|#Nl_#fpJ*_iXa>of#Uu@7XHr`Y@e*Y<9g>A-#B0T#&ys9Z_M3w
zQ00EVCwQF3-5nZtZ``4AcX!u=yE~0H?rx2{ySux)yTj7I=ec$7ot>$f-Th~)Qn5No
zB{``i=j8kPysIBM9(V`;&ODLz@4TZ@{Dl6PDZ5ROKp$SJ^d1-AcbQ804QBve9;19_
z>h76uea6%QD01oxJ=$0SeQJUp`-R}ivdg__9*KC@ih}IWa&bXWFKCD#@aeW0o2Tuk
zkU8t#a_?$#dJM1+V4A!hbD7BGwS0MLa+5Q8SXP~Q7~VOcJ79<qn6jY#D%sB*__00<
zVPyJ<M|F3Zw7@z~7&!O>hxtP(ew|%pO3fPwi;BYQ5681)vx$~vLRFRJMBv#_0$831
z0UG6Zr(dT$`DrEjxvMdeMirts1!0j3512o=Sv$RrPBb+DHS@o5G4Sw`tZK>9>MM$f
z;V?SFShU8XiaVP`QCM9SCP-838K(t>mF6-NCa#m<FPKdHtMe!Y7pILHL@am5s(D1E
zEVNCe6&8NhXqZ<lfDA1E><}92nzSNeKGV}!Z~j)u{mjTslUXTgft^X(3Ui?~6w3Um
zffa(WiCJ-pIP7zgNnBV^Ae@47)F}3Bmnc!7P@+WjckrG^qx$dB|J~r^auC)E=U3_#
zpM-Nzw1nm;-B&C6O{&_Cwwm?|eTa^hc09j_mj`Fm70uOEjfJ5{sxo26uAgxXRqeD4
z0dg}N3wmv(U!QR{^x%R%cQOOi+4J>GJg{Aep-eU~aGj3UT<!Ch`MRmG-ZIkP3c<nX
z(O}RLq+#)@==TMvfR1*h=$GT`I;%uhYp8?(KI|r=91S0=aJ7?DB2G^jO{oUBleeKJ
z0VJSJ5-H|`uv{}yP6@SsSH%wXc-H$~+DGI3FH4S*Zl7M`1X&f&m6;;VdBIm2BkM~k
zftlo<2qUja*~(}a&%Kw+zSCn5Tvs0#P^Hr_J642m2_t8bv=1HX>hK<ZMJtE*9+n^v
zT9vkii>hc>t~g9*y(g#V{h2E*zMDE{53OFc>whA18J~j;BW3_)Cp?N?nS7`9A?v%1
ztvr65jgvaYkIj}mAHJ)H&dZ=3R7oD9iMB24W$Dk_jR(<}gBRvihFGn0TTojsas0|%
z=Z&hYO-$9k>~9eB8+t-rhxV_`YDhS}H|j(<5h^b}o&gcPn*)TR3ARI7<8Qi?B?K#-
z*Ft4;I7)biRE^9iT#=kagv|DFDXO>q#kAa7iNuSSCAv2UIg|rLo3&3zb}1{5&;EH5
z_~P1JmpefVI9#4N>p_1Mih7*RbiY&*1+pCD|4b#Z|7Sq$f3;rX!ivU@g#TbDh5x<$
zV)=(*{TqHUF#m;L?Ei*eY%Kp<`1Kb?{g3cV?mx2X|5@|@+I+G6FU;2uhW`iT>u)6e
zzsZ-NKEU`d6Z;oG`_HWq`Z^$PfG<uaZewE0%}p=sU}WrIZevOzZuI5j%pKh*=@pDk
z%>j-MZWIDWwg$$O^omY)c2>sLfBD>(7Nh@KgOaV7xUjUo9sPeSL@%sL$jI=u3;$iF
z5i<S#RusP0VBqLxXZ&~3zaLQg8vl0y@jsiWs>!U$#Kflk;|G)Gm$cK?{x6D+<3D#v
z)ZEI^*x|3yb2Jt<HncS|{&&<c;n%|dm9Z(wwc893!mhbNM^|w2|16+GQn+^-o+4m1
zcj2{D$cKm#3U2fA6D{G?b2QEJV(Yw<ZFhls!U1R2^B;DTYzmHo?Ljj=%!$>@5Qi+C
zrr`vc+|k!Xp=-|qam3rb<Y*>a**3vl<+6u)OQear1(;my51N_;(+=2bO_3vJqpGE2
zc5<IS<zj&81o`YWiGiux1IFOd7mMNI9+(Bm1I?5_Rv=4&+TXKGZ&aN!#*)aKRU*W4
zmWWRB&6q}3@=6^kaWemmi6+1;GAn8J$K1N=Pz9@*Bn^6lVFF=FSX2E^PJd>G|C8gy
z_=An*KT#el3&Vfse{~-JpuErK^L9jyd?>K(Ah9E8VnPtXpE*Hsh!V&e&`>###A?KZ
zf<UTB!b*X~Wud^j1`(D*7-;=HEfL1+n=43Ys8+3lHy58=`)zI9;b*3g1WyN^hf>YV
zfWwJ&W@e&*&=W;Q^#nG~Jk97YmUjSZ_5r-NH#wZKSzmK#Ds1ch(<pOHw`B>V>9Na0
zSk#BONO}A17~uWxWW+-(OD3Q3d)8D}^=UZZBS`qxo6LfzqnOZTW%_9gDEDzg(5*cp
zySTGao=Lv9|63z<YOSl=y1U0Ci6^`K=XUMk{vmcjbf>uE>bF4liD7MCKDyzR;5Xx+
zmuYESMTEC|16sL_(MZemlUa>sj3-f9jR@gS&oD3tlkRJ<$OYbEJBC9wt(cARLh=*N
zhg5Sd^>GXO8kP#EDR6kREY_oSd?d5d*-RJ(b4dG9WB=9cy_<M^nLUy8`^Z^-ZfWji
z55Ac-@oheHmU#3Wz6f(#>s+p5(wF2LGu9>N6%mBlJk;!@W4IUJj}X4@({v7{N%vsx
zx#S_9^UQC&uu8dwtf^c`7FMqoEH;s^UV#^{TNyS|RWq}pxyBnW2Od)&MoO(k<9@_v
z59s>0Dp$cwgOr!=-Gc$q!gm6k#<Rky!ts<L4$~jzO2W)j%(Z50<2lVtEEx8)*R6;-
zB|j6RmHZd;Q^jumg6figPbs{mA$0r<5ncnq(h(fJvgObgqc$V`hwP1hk-fh1nC<<p
zC`XiyvGF<yrr#2^sS8uIu9l56oEkpeQ!j|rIdFAIm(Of3y<hxFBWLyc5`HD}x+<t)
zM%$5npugQwH_$n4Zd2%SRwfb)sSzzTBQ9*|@R-#-{9$_cuI_Bq^DgxS=^{yRIplU4
zaxpKctk<Ia#a6wz(MEVxWL3gZGD)bDie^w@J(_smB44SX_>oYenJAasMhpkF(mWR0
zI`O=6I{0xUsBVqmG3b7*o$0$;{)6Wm-HIQ56>6tQCG-POlK~eg!r~@@M5|;lL4L?l
zv@1sR&jAH<d<dUF=iSu}p=f!mkNGRR!ad#<>P;=*krMyRZ1QWetU}Xbg%f&I7rJ*8
z4PB%eZb_fqLk2;e{P$#Yoo>E`HlTG$4G;bkr6;r(<{sii=yuUc!(jJ#_-V~My7urX
zuA4`JK=@gYJJpx2VuS~b7l_WX<EmRy)@%Val#f8~j_AUvgg~O%LYWk9a|36UgQjXM
z!<kvpXlxE*r>~}HLJ&pY$w}cQFn?^Ve7wKt%pRU>w6|#6yDk1Y-(7uPZ7|>1i%Sl^
zKNVdJyK%=I8-s9?zDAh1246V@JA3%Z5u(S?_n|{=)(=njMJVmAp9S;eU`nZU9s$dz
ziTs(8tw0v2fX&$PG52}%rvtT<{>r&#Q`Ow4$kg9f;=%M8g#0@JW%IfY#0d!^MhI?4
z!hy(ehi~kzBowTUhEiNyeB{l@sVMn#JajJorNsWUlfbDzIOoe@5)K|DW?V9!;>&MC
z?NWMtoT?o~ha&Kq8D_;e!`+>l{9kcK>cFxJUDTsD<A_d$a2+>)UM1O7{*t{U_u02u
z2Xf;tvS;)U*|UMunjxJU&cZ#a+ZjDDa}dZb<KrNm>W}VG7!1VM151Cx?5y0w5Zr$!
z|FyWVXAwotdw_wg#KJfy9cn65jAIe{@J04otcs<wxxqmCk5j15^4gZ5C5{$Isr3#*
zlizV?9n(W850d2`aDCEUl_@!1K4)?d{C2oE_qC^AZ+y5vNH#F4Ru1>}F`!a3<#uFc
zRNmRxm}6pK<6_EIQx!Jaab^w=vXPjD+4D^yTAmLfQ=d?jK`1<T@WzIQ64V_V_~Y||
zU`aBlr)Wvl=SGth;^NDxC`N9IOnD_$o3nmD-u3g^quuAz$Vc<nes4>7pd?M1g$A{D
zFeuXZM1Ns2+y#MBKkA_IF%kIfD*2JjUnG0o^y67L1;#q!=XjXNX#2H%hZOU|2(m2<
z^rqh14f%tZFsx1zY&d)B(&k^XN8YRG2;FUw_z&4r5>_X+oS9l`D*tg0@T2NK;pDjX
zE3T?B$o@7j&U4tNtXLuv#QCfM9oI{xRwgH=DwpJZ;hvgHe-{u-BGERHgKONsI~p`0
z%&0)RVF36a$X=cFUA<>#3D(El-I>&L!#xF-CUySKYq6Z~4&wMfWX~>1&AWn$TR2##
zI|pgH_s5DV^1kdi1yazfliyx1Mxdz23c~36RFS-_XKDar>oerxix*=@H)(UCjlGVz
zo1ozETS9tnM=tDVl{x80<k&}b%^yQ1+fZ#H{P|FYsJZH}B$xiRc(n`mg@Pn<%u}Ws
z=By~c#8w+ClOXeCagH$c{d2^m=kjO@0SoCIGzp}uFkcFDSP*$8ud~{!><Hs>S~R9~
zUGtbZk?M);HwndK12t1YQ)+GhxiEsZ`~#6A1F1&J4)dLRtt@4wxOh@tI*VY{uusvh
zD}-#{V*)vw<V<%zGamti>_2?+N089(`~{ES+A%<T%}lZZed$VZyMx?8z=`73!Pw!y
zDP~lUTMU_ZH-7QNqJ`wJK@Cm7&K>(VZ-x>4aufn{$i_#en3zPn&$dq?u4MOC^F|M*
z#R&c03*savh^Gyr0Q=jm&rZ0|vkj+>Kcy4XkKbN}uq?vW>>!ecBi#^$Wo{FrQakau
z4g=xjxAM%;rjU2q6Kd|REm|)8i6~Zz1WE)U{_g_LVNC?q$wv|@zQK@<21-6qA?@*k
z>1qi@U&?74T|y+hG7@o?(eO%5K2EtqXw=Y8|HXDe&p4Sjc4|pwonV`JsH?MNe(kwp
zFE!N@*dsh)I25PuPfdB{*gIo+DR<JSYx==4Vk%n68)8m5K5sQTGM~gwI+hRKbPkCz
zBqt{<$b<!I4IPAcoBrquM}liz42%bWn`);TZeLgak||>qW!ZNHq~xXjn?LfgD=!M#
z3dqWzYgkG?BJ&91Id=tm^ZbHOYa^AB8%_sz$J$Q6V5Fa9g+^`UP?$D?8Z{+8B7(>l
zyd=9O3YoZ4945ndL%C#Dt&+Ze@Ea;Y<ePD*kq{(9ua(~$FX&JKPNw^QE-6zW*dY&@
zt|*zTT-Xi$idh6w1u^e3(<8mB@PmIa$zK)L0mQ!+uOmGJTh{cAt7IPBmL&27jc^lW
zpG_S4Vqgk9cScM@XA)3s+C-QF%iz0`H3<gCm~A3P74qN8JyGaLV5T?J9UAB-$!XeJ
zwy+^PL!SJq(Z~u)D$Wv>r1U9FjtF8Ne%I=1D4F9F226mr`bzkvJTRRQ>7kKWGoIw;
z%jQu}LH(S2QJ{u<R+;`fcX40#>!vpZpa$%zSbw#q#LyCkfZ+MscVX%Q-z5Q!pQ}-^
zLL#Psu0<{2P~b4|B{t1-mp+TnoqtPo=cf4lh1dW(N=gs*Ah&(FBMVJYH06#q33BFe
zg|Y=rsqm{%ANqp6t1`z9y}qVqEjtb~I?asSF6;NIFKKEPcv<QWH|WvHPc>V4TT9jr
z_3tKfHKGX#VrB|p8d*Z*+sB1^kNM|M-ZiYEz$ib?GQ^fMKS5!^^T(^%L74qA6D%`w
zhA}_^!2KQ<IZwqTsJ46%-jxUMBn+G&8kg$We)mXIFB-?ETUg@y#+84<YGo;YL{V<6
z#_m*r&QT-RRG1pJuFtMpk~eo^UCz=Dyng*B5gfDZi=g(+2xK;=6Ku)myh!tGp>E=7
zfhRZCmgif0@J~=jHcjyqi}V~76ISa-DU`|5AbADet&5l%gbgw4NM6ZB-R|4po-SH4
zzn;mgRqcEN(k=VtTR;Y^(>2HSO|w8oR&3G*U%XIF@qq$8Ggnr{C?|9r?D=&E-4q!+
z_*#BsXKMPc)@i{+f-P8fkm4@DTbwE>RQ^;OWgtJ#Z!pb4F*bKCI1_@Y&`LF-9aN*u
zGrFZtwf+_7P^>QgmC03-(F}Kagp+E$_m!SC_>Q=}Jb*f8x*PjYEF3--!aYzKv;LJ=
z>i<R@?FLg{?VbJSAWCg_K>_F1LV{(`fL9a53aQN52~~cc5%9LmITu}C;yb5&4pu03
z<P5|Ni?QwD3+cPApbNC8b}qL;KLrO-DEUseC0YjB)9ag(!(>x+LbQh1Bz!XBD>lv*
z^J$}(H0K5CY11>npbMNSxRT^IsR#IZnr8uPS8xq~7W3%mf;#m(7Q}27dkF17T7i!B
zL&S27dRfPQ5eBDkr0b<6_=O6G_^Cy0HlZD{O}Bh}MCV(NwB6uOE<Nh{-Ftkm^qd8|
z#+0!Dr&V{@hA@qgY8{9}=wtIpQv;rR#Py5(X;gCBC!ESK16r2JA=Uu`jZuci6Q{B{
z?>OlBmY@bam%)+yBj%RCMZ8m$ROBzRSN28re*T;6-Tg!MT9nJ_kx8rS!H};q9=crD
zBI_%;X5PO{1p|TsJf`0dKY=f@7e9C=pgD&BMfSj_<i5yWuGhcGp83DXo;2RMXdUWv
z?bQdlI_*%+;Pg2*JJ5Lg2Ft{;*zVMY=tN#!|FYC9*x3DzwrE~fU+aZ6XB};zGv*`R
zI9kjl;QM*vC7@$Kp)C*IC}{atb0#tOuC#<xpjSc8c{hvxY0y~({m@N11h1TP-ePI>
z?iYdgKzF8E)iEm)Bs~bCJ<;Z>h&jN}BcgqH3uV#>@DYRK87D&V<xaIaRLEq9_5?oT
z!g%%xJP-Dx9UOSP^R0_dHFNBGr7MK^GJC3~9A9QHRj*QP&AkO?snj~%zQ<cYQxg2j
z=C9eaOxu&!EBtR}Z++_5U$eIwV+t{oQONOcvo}*PVR7^eSa*iz^!r&7{ubTBW69jW
z1mqRC0UUci{%L1Mpf{4?>9>P>P;9Y2>^+m7iB_d@lx@o&BLqNcg!2<!OQXKhiGHlo
z6@D=NEhaos*APq6B`JgX0~4^R76{#(3-Xo9svsHrFSTq&fKaDGaFK|5naT0-ipSy#
zyg+;a`@oL#D^+ta8K+O)xeVg=HtKm~&;^<v=)eQn+&Sx&(A?mJoezp7^M(t+l5VBY
zulhv{_*RExr7cMZxhgYP)0YzYvu|l42Zg_xHA+Q~HaXmWO+C_li-WNvquvq25ho~<
zbYq$`8%DC?)PPqy!tb5t9KGsUW6NV|rX>OP7Ns028i!ORu^M5!<(sYzT@N;hnsOC6
z@Fma+HvExyZRyee6gzu}4X{db#B^bQg7u%A>n>zw;9CojyIx8lDL!4!1Sh^KST%T>
zdQg_p4)h0pv~jRMtngD1Wf<0WRb(7$X>Fe%RW`1#)W^$`(J)<~G|u?Bell25!X8j=
zkSnrN3`bl6vc9Mdieyi<U3P)YgooMmExwO+-aQ)aD4UlNR|GD^>oQB`_AE3fRAXq$
z$(x;Bn4N)iwT)9sw}=P(y9to_hMslxyuN4B>>6lQ%kGA}M^V-5zQG``zCm4%U680i
zwZ5Kuk;2F?CMfk)HUr#E-){A>>Knu5qD`kDdy8=fL`(0vqXfKWe5Lt;V<7Lq3r9IG
z`<|A=uESYO=PP$b7As$yPeLvYi?3~$5P>CFA7=<}4a3<91~8uk$qckF^t~b8$*UAQ
z3LJ+VZyBT+GK+8tZ##!AFS2<D=p73<f?v{l8R$Y3Q2-1#`HC*J2=%Pw+2yemuLiS;
zttBdk63&GnYLXd}^=%+SKpWZe$g}35x3E`0S8PspHrc3GsO9H9nK;<2;lYCJ!><q<
zs%Q)MRM^0KK-#{PsiweB!B>Bj-hSw{VNOo4&&@j*CmmL@fL`)0as$6shUW&h6P*E7
zo47+WU_=*$IWuGbvc32^+qdAtAnuwP{ic(Q?<iUZXCXT@iJVv@^bp>(|FnLRM)o3k
zu+aJzb{TW7QNb!;tk`lu=w2s#z&?qN8VZK6)>BrU`g`DOPJnKtxt^~T*JB{v(61l*
zI%F#V^BRYSIL7xZBwZ|EJsL(u`w9t0-xsv28CrN^f2lv~s6d-VbxbnSSIEntD*4fF
z!IS#|RAftAh?fr8@r}?|kSg8L01cNawrs=KswEyMZjdt&d?1?uoipt@;D*3+`aWRm
zUZWhZH|{A95SdxTi)n|jn2}$OvQTdFyBEe(jw{_Z$X8th%_xA<uKQv>E3)lbs5GIc
zifvxErcF4$+{9<rbrZKL=b{<w0~<Y(p5bq@`Kys3enNZ6S%T43JdpO147POLskb?M
z%W59v$^9&tfB-ly3;$>E`Z`4hRqmh~cA&%r2%K7tE;`3`J2iS3J+Bf-b^7np+d|(k
z|C|Pc8qXmyJWf$XwSsTOmqX1`t_5;}&gixTENpR=2X{bCsl8|tZKd=~B7ekdMf-Uq
zT#D@Vn8N((VxFV`gQQaGB+kxS1>3I-wt`-x)LS=<lzUcgRc;TeBsIFi(vBwEQO_k1
z#(7GKt%9>Kz!^Z4Pi+><7tw9Y%YKnM+6N#&s}&s)4%T);ywjCw%_;9c%H)1*hzkY>
zK)A!V{sC$#h}H8HTqo@)#0R;vl|W}`S3?0infeB72sv{W(}ItzVQY@5$T}bg2;);^
z4ohMX1-|of|1tF#txm6(UMEcOjfF%g*BA_zsh22|=mq%vx0j!7WzL;8a&i3~lyesW
zfO4T({zOcVH{-mom)!%!(7W=rV;0C#1Zuz<`|bBb)%<q6`>CGIS>%tgvP_$yPtuzk
zZ^k!ykL(Q$^p2vXTj{yirmG;~X0_LdT>QM6;zFeZq>c&1glE_(uua+nk0&v&{dBKC
z@4HoA?^E6$Vj6w7+#}K9E2Sgo_Bz`_pVH5hSKU5xr(v&HD;yZ!4Oji5gt~mkmc}jg
zIe38Ubepdu*x^7x0DwN>M*eW&(}^Zt#Hi-Yev3XcdbG4;>empfhOo*pf1tUuhJJzb
z=Far!RF}|s;(Wfc*D%13PCWn0O@?0WoglFQp47^#hCZU4B)WSB&0;rmL`6P7fuq@~
z1=CC7l|2IA0}ATdG)i~+jX2HAOa6_EL=D|ulwpsLg8=amXxkLHCj>47xJ_7E==CF)
zUf2FIC<~Q3lYFxug!>WD7GYFw?xBys1HLYGlKuE;bqdv<w5okJ-m>WtH@A_!#Kiz9
z4|ys+Mntk@3ztn(5|S0np?&e%trMQ;VPa5@-UCmU%Tjq%`CgTwL2{0SjgV#Mua)L8
z1Ffh1qw3Egk#wQ&nh*ZAH{GKaL4HTuMBW+omg2#X!@Lg7h?A}Y8|aMWD&Z4+rXmp6
zR^X6f$1xq#W<F*s`GIeyV;OE5kG@A|lryxZJJ?CN^{=6K1%1%u(_@=guKK~_=6DD0
zwCgkO^3xtMwDW#7k&O=%|5tk8=IE2$O5PB>YPlCq7!i$K@+X%J1|O?l%z#cxuk+OQ
z#rmF0p2ZD^zRYL-4fewaODRZfm{tgD+q_u3hAeKF(?|DqNZJ@uPfJl(p6^Nob7wfG
zuI+qUAi{aN>#6VhP?Enwyxa*~vtBd*nmw@cxi7O<@n6hd;E#GpNn+X&SLs3|`y=LE
zRO6v)*Fa993py@>^H<EDqM542>@U?>&ph{y8hYsudG?sM@&?fmW(Ih<IWwK8rYb&(
zFR)97Fy|q~Q&c&`)Nl{GRH<;CwO@vjZPcEf;^CT`=Lr54zOS1Oz&5MpsVM(aPA+t@
zT_LKLew;x43hSNA8PJUPaGt?3+LAWlwwW_iZ2tsbTY}0fm2#*}b&tO75!fDj2ph|`
zN!D^&UYk|L%)v`7lrd2C1r8CDXm_}G^;-9*>6#CpYF|rh#Pk6evp;uTuNX2}37+ZV
z-DH~(a`0xaaN{Ngz4o!zG8`t&{p*peryi{K+>+~<Mb?NcLO8Mm68F7LwLx`N(}!&Y
zo3H_bjAwzs6dnQG<fp#e_g9hj#CRPcOl`YN&pdlmP#cEx$vDmf6n3@0HRY2g_&xLx
z`Ma*BQiw16>54pnvbM}@O{*sd4g<QPULs?BfAMow9}aw-?Mk6mjl8cgT#q<FYw~~#
zasgITZ{%@5^p^~sqJ3oERT#d__^)@?f7k<Xy?&9e`ZMJkW3NBfY!-EOx}qUFRcDE&
z63lhf;hvf&^EC)fI=>=DT><KUdUz*_KBZu1<!Sf1P4uU4Z>_eM9jr-RJm1$|RHS_F
zX#oAGzM7v;F)Uq&ISOgEjY%~mok400SWyen7t$hq=VX=D_wK@dj9&u9I5az0ydXKS
z6%2W*Prkh|j|fbET~jscfUPGu)`LrUU1>MRJ>c-coO^S@u?Bv7DzuG71iUt0ATdwB
zHztr?0FU_u^x=lO6$G@ST6X<t$vEWVh%U&RF!=RKeZ_qceQ4IECDt&7N;z#ZD5=<w
zPqUH^r%9oCmJ(jWnB;;8NIN6X7-U8`o!O)qTm|vEL3w!u>gS-ITD-rScpy55y}L%3
zLrac+z^@i-5i5UWEMjr&?9xaxWfx2dF(W(kKX*pA3iJEP7d-$)u!{OIhIbV$qu|o)
zLj7XS`0|cug;UMfjsq|dv)FNiv8I65EOW_=bgAxuh7E*cLfJF|F5s+GEH%Y`OZADH
zoCSJkOhvA+srq{6^?x+`2=xrDoh6hHo{ds5gkueihT=*O%regu@LHZ+lQzfLHl@<7
z^$&*jQG7{VnM~j<{IN={XzJ*U;Wbe-`SksFH$B>tXhuIr){osXrw;aTcgd2;7r{dh
zg5E-c%8BQ(ZKX|5Bu|DN6-BW!pj}I<Hw=3liV5(0H$4it5rI^e*nwJb!&i<+q*w5^
zTeC-`Nv{jlhxjT`-M&UX2s5a&u9pSGn)p}f4Ie(qv79O-?$avtT@MCRJsNai0#L}h
z@g#Un@CLB6Ib0mJRQos+H=8(jol8><>gvL*0oU%Qe%#sN6NJ@E_a!=l;AQd`9JI}H
zOlAkT4(QFjkh*>ii4wC>8aEqGjAEeQ^0_~_z}s?eXUDG?ABO;Q9C1G2Rsyc13$M;<
zfWb1}MgvBCO@Z7m_*b!U1h6mU9DJX8Qh4Cn&TtZ0(+bnPYd%5W($^!hV!h7nkoTgy
z&H40modsdbwz4N{{k?(-X;wZTKd`W}8B$62et)h6G<Luv!j%{YKIZr$pSc(g(6Xy0
zAZ(t}4!AtRuAj7<Xb<K&qTUWT%(X2nt~GFDqsc@OauMmtl*5@K705(bC-%D&91sI}
z`5j{l{31LAAgaMXluUB<b5EDt#J{0=YrJpbZ}uLlwex!^_!4~>n$frS0It8&?vei7
z7#8!OhSakBD+>m?Khwp}yKyTCAHDkUlQ1iDcv$n}O|{*lBlXFfI-%9b)@dKxz*dHN
zh;P_(JE4Z$l*h7mJWzJk)>58^oY1bkKzGi5;0h}Tfz&@PC@mu&&VJ$oFSy8gXgXY8
zlHkFQ5;PNFtHWD`7J=u}S6=XtRR>P4ci|IoQ{=BHBASyaT0*i_yaTZ&90y*~Pn=bM
z0EO*XZG8C7@K|n1M%+G#UZu^wEk_q{8|wbz&@InfjlEE|?+n2X2e|1QE=dC0dk5aD
zZVuvL$DJ~IFF+oOr;uG1O9#@gtPoudS7q>ta@xC8%z4ez!Tknu+p_js{3?VI6yZ0v
zVhWEju}ewVS=8k<uZTzkeAAT!&;{M>(mz$Z%6}KML#q<JNeZxJ_4&4Bp$aa`=>zo#
zMCFHiH_zcWKCpkxUh+aMf%n44KW2|gFX)jerws4kX76kAuh|p&$Ls-9rz8Di_C^%x
zn-u<<J-75N15@EE?d&ldoPU`;IuRahNZUFWh(|(hVS$X0ALdM(60+}G4yGP<vJ{@;
zSMF${>gL@{PLTUO=IzpE;f-OZ*SvUI$M2GM%`P=l$5*ji_r$m@d^fK{9|$uGBZDsT
zzSA1NreoZ__>7saAoV2GTmfoogw&C`O75On!OOkcFy#<8h-7%^L%;@O_}wn7pTKHR
zjvyvLB8N@PsyHWH+NGC0<uhu4Uv?yf5ESsOT+H9p2rs6tyiz_1o@6f`Kg3-8vfjOp
zZvW_G$9ftk>wb77yD%PezxxoJM2?ToQvBdL8^9b4*yNX)b!lKbY4?Y17jx)-?aJ{2
z+Kz~5e()h%*Db&259D>kIP(FUjN2USAA81NM$jGOc4o8`+w+9yWn%JN@Lc+ytZB(B
zoP3VZz_Ev=-o%46(R&sa^DZa541R_1$M8qqo>#S*TVoaC#|7bBz2LfG?Pu}hhp9rj
zVl?(h?Scc<?Sr3H&d2ZE13Kcj!h);%&47111X}dR8Q=Da$~k%dwE&dI-LsORRp0Wd
zXYd)f_7mLDNw;#t1k#Cou)B<w!upH(pe)6`>Cmb7A78I0`PZ6JAGeG=Y~&AN%?#-$
zjapU!SlX72`IhZ)!^oy0GK#53eK~Np3Jr>o_o>jI?<o7G;q4ff<ety(Cx0+s6gQx1
zJA~d4@0LNvb_s|-Q1`x<WAwmV2u#l$q84Y%RQcsr*y=N1CN0?z<fDV!d@Q$q8<c0R
z7Bh&Rf9%ODEXl1bCvgPNqU_?sBUsT?cwETs`-sR8(Dbv;c{TH`_dC;Y33yZ_x5toK
zV~jtiRP|WsfqaO}!#&igJC#j1F&7%=HZK-~E?8#&x|iv8!kjc{ZuFiK9!8SI43^As
zlwX23C_H}p!WRz~JgkQ@Gepz&dOiZ7{amFx%Pd|`cITp;gMQ}|TYChR$e7+kL41VX
z_Y%Tzs~wI3n3Qy2EJ>e1EuN7_bdDnK!yIvi|6T*tk!}6{1fN^Q+?n74Z)t~poVKN2
zrtEPhdEc?mh<#BGT4R=TPej}IgN>V3F2w0-Gk!YQfU1X!t*?EHLg6tWh=l;MZ<8`A
zfDZ1)O^+++T|WL5fpEhHNcUUJrfK49+SPD{l*V93%R6G#T&U<8768ff=F*(yvmM#$
z4u0oX%F-i%Gk!8H;F?Ei<N1!GbEvjM?HW(?yb#}6_si_%{xy3mUuLh3S3dZ!+57k}
zW{>FhjPc9tVY*NMHG6H@|2BK)DE*I-HRwwrC6)1F5f$td5KdoaFR#QI@GrC1-^dnv
zpniVc(f6(f_hj<Q3NLYH&kntmrSSXFH2lF^M!L;qH!VG?#Q@&nM1gCPBnHwv-G#6t
zgq>1m&9;HMM0xJ}m)S!x2N!-#Pnladru@h33H>#DbR8w~b5eiJ9^hYQFYh0-m;Yt<
z6vYAQe7iiRawLDv-i2P>U$eKbeL!7Y@z?CZ{mbmRpYm=w{WW`!HRA2NdM!_ytlI$W
z%H8*f_XY=cR(A{@bAp`l10)SvARS;1-6J1_EAo(1MkO!GuXn@iq0ai>U?SdAr#P?t
z+b*l7#hE*hUFJ9{eg+Vff4jr76MTEtskou@9m<mPf+%AuxLlXpoFpjU4YuIUCOrM2
zT-Zr~*!Z++p#yVxErR_saMeAL^;_d`&snKkl`K3J;kerw)E#rj#>ww4COwwv6hb@f
zOTP(v`oNRkn02&?Ceys|Pdfd|-~3MHqLbhD%xGr1%*ryc{nAiNC5R47TG^HPfcQ>2
z;}MsNvQ&$E*I9&JOaI(b4spcr3D8YZEcyi4OXQ_l1RPP<Kj!TIHG5wFm_0?bQfKNR
z2LhGi7Z8WQU>Q{}lDn+Ay~>yWG<%Cppl+(>V~byA&+A`i&!Swem@`lAy>7rJiWqL4
zKIcO(5`4wdapnloPp2M9r{gT78(WBFY$e7^v-s1S47ULLa8?%&7$1deKDoF<f`^`|
z6SvG{DLIOw=mk88%5z;AflBGKfUVR7I+O?E2`U7&xZuYo-|2@h?_xaQZ(cFgiCTvQ
zU_9O_6{lA~g;~9S&xEXB%ErKfBpxSOYx2wRp-KHQtVthcB9ly^(XUA!CMJVP{=cg|
zRK}Ev{1|cIcyp<nls(2_<G5ZUs{d4bR%Gf@Oes=&|5kfO3|PJ2Grk&@PydJ7QzGmA
zPqmlNAZ`-Z_dRx)kPJ!+f(ff@PlN0|<*(WsW|ewjXigQk{YULNpvB`${V|%!_)>eS
z49)4{s{dW>Ay4Mxq40gVy`AKz<U0MC)L~;O4aP9znYe${p4Lb{R(zpUDuel0K2p47
zavy{FP(E<{i_{5Y$>{e~aXd14sWvHYDO@r(l!&n5K0U!yOuBf&c#AK!H^IO$zQ<1X
zX>vnP*2(l7G(0KgZE!;puP7zM^z1kMC?&(dF|o%*w#oDyJj_U@%giydM@^>7^z1);
zD8*}dLm4ld{1!j_$@mQU*X(8dH?zn7SLxx$cQSB{?P-%;GPtD;Yf8a0y2TIUNWn9?
zWei(>!954xFP_)dvu8~9n$p&{CqhQg;FdWIkoxG`QzuK5%GAGMi7!g#9^Qi@Lz5aw
z0ZZnd_|kptQX|RS14an(Vku`PH{aqzQr=>Rg{1I}Zh+zy$Xb)nj2!sl@uV&c9q8jd
zlC4Y~*yF9GE(~fChtbJgn3l)(;K>@9pF!hSldTMDVuvBfNTn8-)d%-f$ShOVdj4OU
zJ)-}Am_2f^zh=*!ALp;xOA{<t$VsEtcntb7dua(x)wxbQp*TuM?xZSI)q-KCRCG9C
z)onX9-$RWhXp{}Y!ZphUBNEh#6JV(5Bm<Kx`?yIDO1}dVk}LYk!&N8|nG=(9gkzCs
z6Di8g5@F@D1!oh6REcH7v`8Hil1uwg6K!k0Vp|Myk(VXDa$QTl@ZJD5qfA(}gb@X!
zXqY4EOaf*_9|fr>6{BF75^1n%AAA62Vc%5v(l(+{0;U#H8g#4z5*G-udf0bTWaTx&
zM0$ZRKdMb2(m%?%of6BkVI5SjtP*$fI~Jtw)YFn^3yNW7N|ZbaO$uQbrByZ(S~)k`
ze}q*@TPUX0!(=2Jm2v~9TH2AXOUIlgo)XQ<!hb3D6y1E)tgS~*qMVipQzO+-slx@I
z77RN;qZJeSa(v7MR;9uy1y<$4B&2lm_KXrNN+S>wbE>(S;bmpQb;wRiS_#NHq}*t<
zGlc2k=*Nf+$iEd*sf;KD6fplF3#9ZFtK?9TPEgou^uHGheyZ%~O1zc!(W8wI3chJg
zbA#@XqrJ$7DN3X(+4B`oJxZj@?KFkI%7ob_-r$h_qP(t07E_L^R63GGdl3xcRo!7G
z<yE%-7un+@{mAJXlz7u7ef}B5`{r|&2IZ+Vzx+Ab?DF81B}EpWVicG1J>ICsHgF6~
zkPt^7=K%}^3KI-O9SjK-sY0bfsU%#Zz9AeP1G9mmVFumOIzl5tO|$-`!}e4~<NP3X
z?~@B)15&KL`FQKS^2sIC@#r$qJi2zfcIY<2!R|L2VSflRble2s-2<m9a^00}=APUq
z*UH=t;U3+`+Hj2<jc$Gm9YuI1k_9{i+j@qNJ~nd??}H^>UXyf=T5fJTq>rL_ZZ<Z1
zMzHfv>|-VkHgS&_Clk0OEdH|N7~4lo3a}RgLyqS9%@1$4Jh_iVhX8O39SzWWuzxmL
z^YfG@*!pURGpf^Z$xHX>@C=bu31|)(U2Iw#->37g=6Y7{7}<yKxOAp#v|sMsSMlzl
zZF6Q$s<c}ke_ZdYbRbEhzx8TuTI<@E)cSMifX8>Eq4P?dWZ9%Oz7M1ICw#S)P<7y(
znvknm3#qZv|7^>_Z4E!bDta|G^4Qqk1AI?`ZuRL{^Vu!QZW+1JMTqX8$o8NnY*a)m
zxCzz)Yb)vEu*i0=hR8-2>UbAJb23_M(3my}rn!83W^}UEchth$wCw4aN2}#Imb$ro
zYo_0rBgt5c)2)c>DT8*uCeX#5vGb1jLj<OoW~-4a%SS#^*BC#kS?j<q1+P(rsCI|#
z0q)!$2XL8Uzls*q&{P35GlF2gJ%ih*ufw0_Y7LQe+*ZwK(~8POYx4?{Ph`^y%fxE4
z3ZH`9$Rc>sEZi*IG}ljyxp{1)Qx=tmAwXtd5|)-?sRSqqPb(6l+C2!032$;^%um0h
z-c`V6KNOO9itV>&K2?)n8#7=YD~QR`>FOlPk_^?QiI$}6RD(|<Oae+eYf4e4jEKn6
zWscWn4*06TR=KkuH!*o@C%(IL5I53~#_q(guu~`#%50+nVQ*IrsJ5?msJ=oOdjmtU
zWpQA%n+8l@lhnWcgtJuw$lJ?1$X}7{zx~9rMQ#43MS+2g$NcAtNi>SOon*k~lAOW^
zmKTH|_Z+mY9pMA^1MDO8fzNl-aMPo>6UH0T8)hQ=oqY@M%me4Xu`6v0?#i;);<6GJ
z!}Sy9jr<AWigQKht1fUGw2r{L@ezI3WVhs&=?hFd{YgZ7Q4amlqPy%d=th?Rq5MY}
z@17StH%w;tN4(i<wRgs&7{w>zev$l#pLf(FrB~(S>kCYq?1`#}?AF@lw)-adCh&Ci
z?h-F>2V6(N>XDb$;w4WZ&J}MV&K)mwaJPIN0dPq5CE^2~uqG}p&}%ozN<=$?Wuq&>
zjLki7@%q7fQTyDh^c7GO!5R3YpGQ6ThAn?5{6#m1Zoo!G`;-U9h)eF9vK{0|<E}>I
zwuXmYh32#~OcRzT_!$JdACCP-l6|{&YRU!<%lQVqxr#^S;@WAuOzomaLGt-JrHWf+
zw(<sE^?CK^qjj`4`YL*><7Pv$GtRsXz}9lvdAPxA)w`P3Lf))lprMa$xslY_-b&Hx
zwnMslFtBWhYJ0@Y`YhK=h;cc_+RX0f+b-fdyD(0$*)$^BP>lHy`}Y$F!}n@GuXn~7
zzA_(=&yTOl7w_+t_b~Zc7QutR2+mxJ*ah=6U+)VCqN+QVg1x+|@5>hY7q%cg%2WpF
zmKr%5N=vyGYAd-KYAi&`%Pici)Ro1`0lH#V=JPvCab6LI5vAw@=vz<E%C`p9UbhB-
zGLylBvot)*%2cehu!n}y-)g5FztsTqk!rIYSk=eMQPt*0+~Ujy&oja(t$r!yO(;8s
zis5VWkCqoM>r6Wvm%JC~v;#`Er7@O{(<SG0D~By(P63iEh1_Yx!io;JI8hU(8J&(F
z6O^^08O=daefkbhxVahk<I`-Fj5)CofBN^sIvP0M{6zCIu+Mc`8OAM(`rcBXwQJ3M
zdhW`_8L&&Hf0&@=isIU^xWa*~Mq>39=QPz!7eAhWH(<?1{3^z$Jqs6DFL#R)tx%=z
zBVKW?K%5sXWD~6i7l{(i=aqnB6%a;ig|T>KBmRTHS)6Xb&BtJCLovrxP7Kg^C^Mm5
zmaW{#;z_d3tHrof)oRb`L#J1F^_`)o<>U`4xqVpGFrh!Vr>^YGl)A1vdmPhl`m~wM
z{r$cwA6nCc3Ec<i5-6mBc7lh63lt2<SaO7i4MyfGo+eU(sTO@;W(ehcWlt!MpVEE5
z>Lnb7xWdA<#f5#>^f~H$JpZKjghy;T>Um+*CqG921H{#}ugBE{s|DTQSFwd$1+E3l
z79hPv%m4<_4Yc%)&6l?dzZ}%EJ4g@i2pq$AUJvaEcwLWF4Y;Mtp$gW~AHE8e1~{Ud
zxC)U5=vDxB3>46f%YZWma;`^a23nB~&JsYz04fC;rH5?>q}YurhmcDMa?)ia2SetE
zEeBW1Pg)GLpADPfk1Pip&X0-e4-$hQNQkiKkBbNf90OP5OJL*=y9KHf1J6we*Caq?
z=ZCrl2CoOnrU#C$2SKI>29XWPnGKGe4MCL+22BWA^TKE)LI?!??YPh^FHaB56NDFn
zzz?Ata?9(=^osmS?CQ(GU*WrAyurVrrxTrB`n4W&ZCPKTyP~vx6-)O9|M>US#ue`E
z@5Kg~K0wzuD<G+BvMXYX#T7Um<g3PbK$h=eSM3&-9r7FI+qXAFZa8nCOpr}TS$~u*
zkFC}%uB{)gAf7m$Fx>FJ{06)7^e}P3#k%zEzTtw|+X0<HM*D_z3vCHhA$X#216@FR
zbbD>-T)|yA*&#e(H{q;-Ux4X?yZEklTk9b-p{;?~K<EOuc1v%GUKv-xtO0d=<?Al`
zS$1P|vu;^jf!m=q#W^n87KQqRKm8x~-hnuLi6Q0ofWmS4V?ik#fJET4hk#N4KhC_C
zMfybj>b;^?|Id0^xKJOOSt8;nZ;iZ^qnu&sG1I`;ZV&87!s4akI4R=4xn=I`%pps1
zLJ(GQu$90^Y<soAcLI9Lz7;6uiKb-prKVzE6VR$^(Wj<Wx$>cYMW`s@W4Sr)rCbe_
znbOQ}Gqb#noK|+&xL;xcoSN?L6)Q0?<N?7Pe&d7`iEKf9wQ>{)5L6P9k|%*THNJea
zgx^<2sHjf+X5t(L>Y^Iwpvq<X5Bbz-8louzCEsJ83vTX|@}w(cV9Y6h`>$Bdu8}U+
z2jLeKD}_2FG8H*Un2fHNr|_w!@;HYK<|?Rj!?zBW<30ziT}@x^2S*o;EO@tRDoJTz
z4<p;o7lWk;GNxzljHD$@vuv8N4%ex~FXt#|jJ2c(7m%nf&n~gfoH=_}#Igwv2N)8B
z-RgA{s=M=><KcVUW`{KhZ1R{TC}mCY5zLX^jR$BH`af4~2+i<}=$CSt)wiJbvK;Ci
zSgA$|6UW{6kdMt*l4mMINe#lr>QDH>owfb2!2+m@P+FoN4zsxLoB86ap0L&kbClLR
zD=0EqmueMFC7bc+OEZ^=no>yHw9Z?rM88RtsE+I}4dKJPPm?|ju1F4eQ?JrI#(rxi
zKM|K?F3issqa-6)&8DZs#-q-`pga;$lFj_4pv!=*g^wB_TJrhTO>I_v2>Fb@*e1N#
z8u?V9(B&CZ_9_7=m}@z;Tp}&DqOntPDl;u{3ZEf+ZpHVcjP~ZRnAyc38~aOs{X%IA
zG#RF200rQ+(&EV|$eT|L!G6aj)2GFhaQ+1|Y?Nk9m7$<I@7BKq)9EH}wDKF$-GZKy
zfXA3^bdHm?UHi1kjD}TG)e&R!Ev<6$(sgU>&jB9KtO9F|Oxa*5G%AFN_w}lmX7r`i
zmFrP|iaJA{gt0_zq=q7B<`}B>V8G=?$9dkncFD)uoK)cWNHuc}`#x45G{Q2rbUmZt
zN;0E08|HwCpRyGtLzuN1MO3L*eyEigOQB@2R1$0o9Tt-|lTnM&(4Ap2gheQf3G>7~
z!t4~VTaQ)MVpDTdX8oKi1?A{Oy+#J1N9}W=s>|k6Pd(gttM0m2Z^>y99z0#MQ*W?l
z(mn+G=1k{x!vya3L8Z5Y-m?Gehv#EvG`>39=LR2l)raQdM7qm*_5Ax_rFEK1@9q(O
zL`V@Lg8BC(E8dub7|z_k9kC#hNTA?JsQ+`^?3w<-HN&l|6eo}M{ZrLsueYD**z#3k
z0CW)i`W$}U<U$4tRS|LqO9lb$hiphF&9rf6%DsvwRm*YCID1J27M*IabYhakxtn$S
zsRjT+R%0sGXYrg_mE9za-D$nL!?_Oe!XI<G#AtJDSc#KFl3r)3qi~GjMt|Zi@r;j~
z29JwGw2vT80h#nQk9QaKGT{nUzRdae@l-bxI<xT^R8mSL*@_06)MhlXHds{P$+uI=
z5`DJr9M&;(cky~Hgld3AFu3xZi8HVGh?H?p{;qKXq4Nmz>1}WcmxU)?yot$IQCSQ&
zS#R}4G7|j*AO<NhVn<FkXXnV)-Y_{+F{k9!lKhsY;#!i`LVj#`u#r);aHvZP+9XdQ
zi&#dVYU<|3A8MgtNQ$Xk^IxT!_LpZNO)%!*Ha1)5<+*F!9aI&oWeOBW6D}xkRTG`G
zdFZdAPH|d_TrtK=FVoU<XSbh^(Z#T9aa89UZOkTYXwsA~9-erp;zy5e@?Urs-j)h(
zWq!aAH%9@ASh`v~^wu%<aK!Obr2cT@hRI2b2JLa7#nCJOd@#5VY^Mr7hLmsQ>GP-F
z>qR0m`9!>}K&*8&Q=1Z=@B33iF&Q%)5nS^2Gkba6%%Vc{+P5uA1o4*E^uEb5Xkw+@
zkUPfzq4uL+XvF3qZ^6}!avWZ)XIY0rySa>HZf*%vNqx;(GgTy~?nOb1H-f6jcpx$z
zZIN!sZApiX@1!h328PWlL!+^3Mr0F{v!Qkxw|H0^0Wx8D%lC!~tqt*5lJ%x+jjGf9
z0PQuT@cby#YB)`Ssm1ide<d-A(1$*_-*aa+KV1tz7*(|>e#CyqYC_%P2|Yk4K*<oG
zpa)SfhMW)y<&~C!h>Kn)@3q7a_lLbrKFT|o-7*<Eq<nmbtH0@isNP%D{)0goSFYEJ
zq)5;dIW5f5%OBFHVLbZ>`7_0t=hfpE6`qwfsC$HRC@5<%)^9pJ$h>)p@<0zVVNWP3
zM)Mc3g<Tl1VAKAMbY5JMNdR@6fL-7ky==VDTEp}Eh!is9kEg-tcSQ@6@a|LtD0gND
zreC~mTj4=D<uSU(_f<c%;ak^;bj3iDkF{{_MakqVT2n<#S#hRIrO6unNJ~>{l?ZxE
z<6{^aHPo0?{&wL@RYv6u0E#HqJb6t#$5B|fvwANHW<hP|sVOpB<1nginb@#8ngXf=
z+2vguN1JcIf25=6kV1eQlATCg!xwOj50H_}KGLYWt^23Pq3P-@c#9~R-!f$>Y_dCP
z3W4E+MVC${<66VE4B(k5uD&%;!<S=nHvnGhO8lKYuLx2gHr1<HSE}+LJ6P(I)yqH^
zRszb=iH-NR&2*ZG6{b~*G}Kwty{s$@$A{Rv!Jfx7p2s4e!`>itpRVkLj&O*Gz)0{+
zrd7z|(`Ct?)pGwxQ^?venRG@*z7;i$Iu8f#GQFfnju@G5CxMPr+S0RIF?@r#Up0q<
zJdJT!9r(D;SGkc0<-$o_<_`f<eqx@mr+$5&AYTeVg9@PP=Mh-^$=z<>duHaMs8%#b
zB`lz1L49Bw`EY(-S+ef>IKrx{u49+wdR;gydCCMX@Xe&oDpS`?ww@Y}E@H!C&Rm;v
zp@p_r6M~@KQ=_-*9HxTH8KdDr2|03mKaV|ZF_e$cDOs7GWK!h(xBu~2XJMJ1|1ocT
zVuK8Q6l}CtmlSd=H_XclQUmo@ln!GlyM~!%tELGJvSgx!342pcTD$B*o}65%V{2jo
zI1~EDG!yzF%(5!YU5edGPup2Bda5;zLb&oc-{QE}tc|V?X@@cw$t3%JLFoZ0{qqVG
z0S&Qds#7X?yWFujddtKK18+_YR#ag;(OcjEyH%v}(>wgvlcHZXNbH#%=d8#p$8Dqp
zEKTw#B*-prhWt*pv0s>9zD(6`aDRaSiupdv@`2HJb5gujQ<XoCn(6mwms0BtMO9}#
zuWWx-Yl$}#<j<(#lZ-rSM}F&Uq;joGN}JpsnaPSx-&NI`ieE=o0WNBmZJ!+!=eX!C
zj!OU$0p7L?{#Rq;fLk7TN&S{ixv6hh@fgyjtBBMSzv!q&i_55-nl*08=@E=vq|8^D
zD)}o$FuiP#Ep(L?CvufHMzBaSSdj$wsfNa@7iI5J=c}=9@W<>g29lKo>3C5o^W02}
z?q`4;Cp>jiKMnaE3N6)hr)$)vYl^4IKtx9$%zvV`{&deA4b*b4%jPJXo=^RW8^!^T
z4w?ff{BdXu2Qa9Trx?$|i=v`({b<rO-p-Sj&{vdSUw}~3rsOSi@I*}QC^Nq%{kjn)
z{*I#4NYt}BwHngE#A$YJ+h2<<Dloq(wQN!Q)#PwS!l{W*<{T&RhYS0<@%8mBS17gr
z$9J6XCkugO>5D{eEkaDGyUA5ZwIW=N3EG^abm#TaX>;(*c+;+VKjPoxUSdY)5~?PT
znTaS7esZuncG!Q{R9p7#O-IuCdCF@IWciVwifGsawj)D&SrvyqzqhXfdOSSK$?e7!
zh9C7~HN#6L_UB~sPZybdF7jO$nI(dJOR1=^)x?W?z~y!A<NizedqHaqU&tDFL>r!y
z=90qL$Qz~J%!!#LLy$H5SWZ-yw$qNxq;5tB&vwS~F?>VEPx@&F^7*f>D#8L;rc^+M
zkCWP>(7N`-f5vz+g|h9nBt^J~u-otsG%z%bYKL|_nS~<v<>jDdz`wN6e*x;SK}j{M
zRjY)z|9wr1mcz4W5v9}O#S;EAiMVTmq-(gy*!da2jaW{l=`Eyx-^GG<b~aW;h4-uo
zQwB-CBd9M9;N&JVK82H3j=&C=0<YC9G^K4S9`;}pe4Eb-kC|);<x<wDrzov2m9Bo6
zv-6U%7s^D-ndQtBxB`<Lx+sq26KIHy8*cU4<N{+GmR_uJgPEkHxxGb=AEI0GQIeph
zDG_D`A9wpxUT8mCo6Z-jI<P1cS6};SGyAc>$E4q<x$+_Ez%ePuFy-)DbBX3bSuM08
z?J~Mh#KHVm&_Sv>zbq&xw%oLD+(8(NYIatwiuXBSal|Sv7Jor*oFl?+^Eu*b5DbpU
za4;HMd=-M54C56C#*kSh-M@}Tk6ClrXgjRHY4GXLwxYUU)e-{#<g(SpOXR*Q0CZ|3
zWZlVfCCwd&X)TuZoOyxe>8Nsn&s}*mK@#C!C@n`b&AGgoPO~Ae!c9!oN&OK1f~RMr
zFC4I+1GmrefAMygv2_H|Vt`|2rfa5{9Wyh;%*@Ojvwh7RGc#U0W;<qPW@ct)X1jTP
zm0ne~KdMTV&Yzu?M%vvoTJ7r0cMOws_s-9-XdVC*Tg)s5HF4ClOh&@8noUx)`8>R3
z$m}ptZU%|jo?>JKR%sKfRN@)V1~uL}<lh5jNYAk_t&>MjMrzw4Ms416-Ga_vGpu6;
z$j1s2!&P;6Bst3$tdlFN8=OqPEC_cZB0}?&RIS*ogEGz9S4=E|EvEM<Z)H_+?8EEp
zn{*d%B_rGQPYpXv1Arqirz^EXv<q?x*6FjU1)CKK73kTS15ueFk(nWJnFG0*FTroj
zuNH@pN=Q0cXZe;(HE<f=mLiXdX5d<THE7wd(k#+bGda@+q@4>_l-?qNO?*u&H<VB4
zX*W?Vcy-0dbGRzKW+KYQec!PrEF@@0nrj_ncN|0zuq<$-k2<!LVW*PZF4MH?4YlJ%
z$yF?qR~1ct)$~Qfc>&p2nS@A(lP#w5i%}W6ZOWKph2o&e3QPDSG3N{J8Sa{v84`9`
zoyemLmzCP~Mb*UF3um2otd)RT0tfRFdtW<G4VBJGW6qN(<ir&-WgcDR@-FHhnmK!8
z<K@{yIbws$SHZ5eVUkE%K<d=A52%C*gg+KaB>a)!Gz<vetLP2oOPo&;CZ8=l?k%!d
zBWeVA^7f5f6I%32>uGsB0~v8&ym;#jfY};6%mGbzRvm#IdyY{GcOkB{iHuFtE6aor
zy4Ll>YQTlYn}B<yNBLf3?*gY*R=SCzgz|%0iX7QQ;mToq+%y`1x7MO+-EBR(#K=4k
z=6LBM{Z>hlNxF7H3cj*tmwVkq!84cBW3(oJijrNNr{cd*92o5Bm&9eG2>toGgGOYf
zKSKL2rcuyqM&QTkH*X9dqy<Jlg}BQavDu&+oHQ_?<zH6BzDG{o)HwAP3b><rx?yvD
zs=F9-dxp*K*6{M1i>*zB&sWsHD5I9qT6l;nZBWcrNB!K_p2xuTQn59^IJHrSP2Zd0
zz8!irQ>nul3<lj`o98->OS|<7%ng^vCY->gjr@wBZCoCy%uklBL$D$Vg7#+HE(~zN
zyPh`0n~0y$jbD__PqaS%1FoH^ASb|U$0{`^R-}Z4XnDH>PgyWO&Q@kp8qJP>mWe)8
z6JpgrZ-2_FXP%Irk3EE_Vx{7yGV#|tW9spsj*CN!kX8N2VHBqbw6IcUp5g<7AYFAN
zL+8dlh3)C3@3@1d2yYjN->KmZPL55$>+k0!VJ^WeBqKC9H0(8URo8y`vzL|cT`Vi`
z+F9a$_{Zx`m*++&@cMU&!i3xtv=aV@B14~de|n0QQaB@AuS(!*Ak0ofNiYr+P+L)l
zRau44ywD?c*8F`RtWua_R24e<SBEw~3zI$u4!};jK|S28LZ3gOOdX+1{VX1yDV<OX
zw+fCH$xFW_EvSCmGh{?9Ho+J$IKFAhq`+V*z*ibq)J+~+&6!FwPvco`(mo=*KrMc^
zESs9GB4e4Ht8Q7kI7IpVywtK`K&(a1w{m69G$+kPRbm`_6z4P;mjhG!-K82gr*ANu
zlbX^N4^~xGSyL^eUkk(Bh0D;}v1}CYzUb{jdu2*L$?78AD#w;pZ7yl%No^kQ-t(O!
z`h4G+C3@xT(NqWW;W+FCx?DbHpd;ZiY7-glfTuiwsL%^Zy+c;jGN}N@lJ{qlmEGWs
z{4$lZOH(t};|Q5E5rzGI1Hndx%bYH!oRn;nie<N=5o(}y#wc`nhU#gVaj3JBL!yj{
z-E95vs#GM~L^O%yj7-KgC`K`KxJ}y%338j;OqtlKl)XmLZ8=Hg#9Yi#s%(m$y0J`d
z_ZWj#MI8t%lKWAt`Y!bE3$oBG9jhQr&b(#PJa2&|Qe4+sfq7UgSxHctI;+w8U|1LX
zem|w==>&L-H-mlzmM?@zVC1m5Kt?no_5A9tS<7$XSudcgp);(>$*;?W)U7ipK+qv2
zKB)XV2Y`Z6c=!X?%UP&zHqsx_mnG$i#hAs9WyQ88ZQv?>yrB4_)5Xuc2*us;;8_0^
z=B1%ufu+DLz9nrqREPN{-=N;BK_fvD5cKWKE(H8#W4C|qkVuJ|a+B&>D8EZ*vBow$
z3y+UMrc8}WeY{lqPJN1|&{`#<FWnq{pDu?;&*gPsW<YQ@y}?Nslu-3LGNr%Ld~=YR
zWAH<T`np+;9=vfoX0w~nEN)gJJjB8vk}ZRofBbU1S0BWZI^-R`WmICii$go=C|FsY
zlnU45kNJs=;6q+%?G{o}SEQ}X52Q6%U0I>QkhPNc%Fv>yAVSy0H+Wf5P#;l)7yiqB
z<}3Ns>5*~iqir|4eTi9{Sa8wY#T&xg4|Q9P2BJ|C1;%g!+-RdIL&VRP5`Hc3{@g8w
zg$W@8)blJuRP=k(p&~-k(gmI8&}PXqcN3K=S5*A!PLnQNHbu>nkG%|Go6*ob#+Z{o
zna!5B_PFAQaOIhEEgoDmnD)$)@43!t*4RNg)SPdM^)+SN@uacW&~Xa%9SE^W`ZS!*
z?~ERmdyew;#$Sc-J-{RLIZpDEgTyD@jqv+n>io&Pk0h1w?v>YkL@ePMfx6)EDZo~G
zRG|0z1@juwg(AA46(#m1O7P-6o(Wg8{+L=r^m0_Q;U^GN+l6BB`9(xi`33l^AP~um
z^v)xd@cm!B97&G7;TT;M11S2Pj|3H7-~VIu|1NI*(8y3To>4|P$Z8Yf<S_#&Zv>M@
zzV0R3Roi9X6IAt|QE~`KdK4P!<DmQ=)*ACrz}b~C<O)xyr}87MB=RkMTz>2SY@!%l
zn$f%G00IiHrmyCTC2yS{$;qdTbbfkMr%N)7kcXJ^SW(ptv&@RAC)m%5swW~yGHS^z
zCJM|dKo67Pl4TALn3!;}QaOt6_2be_@|tXTTG$fdV;n_p7;i4ynB<}s9#a~Sqr{W%
zE8Swh@V}5_l}6xQf9GctDyUDNd@m+Yeb1Bt4EJFSxhiB8d?yBRd`45$tI$UF3%N^~
z;f}gXn?a4DNSjfth!dO4P^i?|z$YuGC$R0fmC~aI{ZgfkwDeP^9aHqxqoq?MiXUwz
zo)IJJPNeC%qajnHZs;kaGnx@tu8*w<)bla5?j6KOUt_4h&#xz%>X$gZfm{?h%8TZY
z7tR{6=AR}a@Ih<b;Bum!)QL1v&#T0dxTlOc3qanbcl(1P@tk))@<^Fup^(2Az1Y+L
zR9oDMysE(PQ)jE6JGaYyL2w?&P2vn=$=H35oOvFI@zmYv#~`g2zACiKyHvnVzahNE
z&9520iu#C52^@)G@b1=7R#iQ)In!I&;+$@>p5|<*@)I@iTQYRmdKEGFSZ(O!?kHyj
z5L{23;2xiJl@z!AQdb!pPkEi5|J%?(_v-bfEr)J!<zH3oejS+OYmi#iW#M|&ZK&X<
z(Bx3vRo-Tyr|}iiDbRS7by_ynMQm^dBxcx)th^%Ze{qIsgZ6^<);nwKYZfxtMNof4
zsw6(Yy1=D=H*n0<`U3|Cq%5HVDR9qZ1(zd&Liq2y-1Y_AuD&Yfq#>G^6JO(My2AKK
zh5DAI#@mjO_c1btrEht|bYi;F8pbu>sCJbpX6I|%8$Z)d64RUPU!Du%Z5Fzeh=kSn
z1w^0y{!w8K{)ff?J1dF#zpSMHnF=%dC23}5Vd+A`!NSh?)6CiAKg6paEbRYOD_bKA
zXA)MH{}&zXzY9(Oiw-6u{Qpr0V`cfT%l<!8TFmS$O#ekhv2k#4vHj1qR(&Rnx9Y&-
z&{TH17w30K5g3SC$HZ?5u(L9-q#^nk)AS_YgQx$5!@^3UVMQrJih+S4<dYpk$5GPC
zDXRX=Wy=krB!sjAH#+*tTxm1HAiEW~`Vj3LA5V8WnjGhME(%5@gD;foFLf@i*LJ-f
zwS^7aw}^{p|L*KDq9MaT@><P~hM&l8{ikm2DSI|Nii^y~vuo!gtlg8=kvo15QmKaJ
z14eMAs%MaR_IIrT6@1M<Lh+Hmb!#ojQttbx4b!*4>GEU&O87BRE~oCecoUCDDNZFC
zDy2GspfEGD*)x@{?|7Y%I~1ZULx@%A{cj{)LcpWxancoI%mwmWg6}NkVJKeSf7*iq
zx3<bReG;Z9TP(ixr%N}u`S4i3BO7hW(=kmaS<mtppI&u4GdY;x$<$|ino)aX3CJih
zEL(ok45)e%&SuF+klac~wwu~I(;LsovtXBVb&k-3aze4mhsge<i#GX&&Y1$U1@dC8
zAnb~=?-^SyAyuIHWpd}xc*Oi>k%ADzlqO4T=kvZ+V%;OSgGF8_YfHf6+ZhyqTd7nt
z;uPTDol(n3@*Sj1tvnm6$9ad^Cfml~K}^}4Q9ei~o_iJTlNsgJwt2m_Ww&PpM}(2>
z#GW`fCGrmKH;Q<niyl$0ihjZ3(*Qh~y<?gTAq?i#qCByjg3^1wPrvx0Im8Sp#u?iT
zQN}qswp9JXB}<}-Vkparkb2nL7FfpFnm;C+c}<oy9TH=f+?9DKCvw4CMHKhQ9SA3H
zaen^SZ9D@oZW&^6^daXyyh{@MAYI<cBLk^&OLpK@fyhoneazw<-r9yx?zH%8l7MKH
zy@;Sg&DYZa<mi{c5NCaI;|xxHw%c^-J=WmpQk;)W+i~04zSzjS)mLZI#y$UsKiV_-
z1*oGw7kOIY-r+Ubx1bLYDRB}dzZ3b9?khYlEQvA~F2enEaP(04igbd!Vn$G~C+U|k
zIosmT*Lg2Uz5v%MqQQI^6y+5~D-KtHs8`g5ip)Mre%Pvn*a=&Zfo8*JIL~s5`w(3u
zjzB&mDOSRPlrLe0JvcCS?6c*O7JI{lw|DG0Ja2jP@T~0ZdUf=4D{;)ZV1qDyc)E4e
zdeDS9qr9~%w<Y>lcVnpOX#tyeDE0SNxFb%Q^uzulcws5FL6J?~-~{xaWz(Zi+Ahw=
zyd+|T`a`2vLgum!)puXQy9WD%Ef+dsv3KST1lr^(pC^#t(_v~g(gS~RyI`Jy?{ukZ
z72!A92@S~xf}5^Ye)mB6f+p46Y>{KGcl-wPS3-7mAJ6`nH)!S~P!$8n;wul~S})k(
zV-0a6cbnjk-!>dhfV4B-15YeowlMKmxPDhen$5KVi0{2E7*DSl|GG3S7u8uT%poo~
zB6&I@v<DHn<u-9LG3==;eAOd<)&}4*w;jqve>_DJm1RiYPaShp;A9<Mg&9Q~s!Gcs
zDdPfsr4#g#A|IzVOX3&>n1RB^3g*${k~wHsnFrpP#i53!A^$LjasM2l#eFJS>Hmd?
zR*#VJuHPDXqlZhrZnYk!X|5_Pc*U#>SXqe16Sph)t3=FA7ER437k%$h(6STwee^d+
zSx;s7Q{QjSUDUZ=Ne*RHx@bTFSZA0=fteCd?nEC>o?l+qQziu>#;YH~nWPEoW*GA`
zv}=*esaViB#(8FNN{1K!Y@LL=JFw}mRjD42`{^>sr>)UWyU98|AuDN_4CLuu*IXor
z$7#Ks=UWM5Y*Hp6A=Y|Xu3ckWTActQ?HLFpNTK0krKTKMVCg#vpS=EUsd2VgLwi0N
zOu{M@x8o=>Uu%dL%PLCcj4hk)pY#D=D0^KfJFH+8%)Lj=z%iJ<>jdnSbK_pZ-DvyM
zC&<5Y;0Bzu_Jg^=nc+c=5c&z}#HB)uEa?V}LbQk|J}3d>rokPdX5{?NHIke}NPsWe
z(nES3+I>`diI-!e8p~N9rlw$(fWS(s%D>oGpv>|H<Z+i$kV20A{mTZI;-r>OJz)qm
z=7g;3T7;9;!kp=(uZtt@!(xqnb#|J$!n)DN8c!2eyuUB|kW_Y3x+DEK5Adod)8}5p
z*prsOnRfwIyOqA6F!7nIrj4aLrz?6ct*}B-q&N0Qz_-bcmg_TjrK4UwVVs8I?S7Dv
zsp{!#rV9C>Udx^)Tq5w6Dm+U|m#EEM7~#^ICkhtna$>QL5GUsH_hErrX({?X3EA`V
zEtH8ZY!S5$zQlKMZsbv7Cyx`^g<8^Axc}~(8nn5}J$?V)ml$W&Wg~5Wp)Hx49*_zs
z$pFc;7N^)W7gx~Dq<#Z0J`D=6I^l`To>1W!f#6-3JSa_0s5m{49T|~)R8veoI8Erx
zIUNmZdC1x+KkfB)DF=FtQh`+RRh(wu9`95qV6P%?R;JR4h<2oY6}+tfy|-;TrO-$#
z9u($d5D`>5>TSc4zEG&xTt~y&m$leguLL51Tgbd0Nk@tP1hmS)sKrtaa?eHoy8TCQ
zonww_<Pku6s4ClF4X7>tS=>Rpgx#7VEW@;48i~4vgi6AK7WU2do_bj;dr>ZjU-(sI
zN(G}@Ed(mk6K<=|KO0fiSw<0$Az8?-{7~Y9H()SD9I%W(9f*)eadj(dtJSl|8B`QG
za(S>Xt91QplyPo2o8{MgYUG!0#fE*^#eWeYiV&(7>`q{U)>%Y+axX`2n%#LfJQJC*
zd!L!iBGG88Cs1o1V~ERo4!oXKcgY;b!At%drcg&wpIL5JG=_U<o1WMrFMpbtm>Czx
z%12=$grOE%F1JOXp$*h+{%d3Xs<LCUP#~?sTcEepzYI9e>DNtVu9UG4Wd2d<^$J{G
zo3zrK(_jgrF#F!>Opcb?Nkmr+`NK@QESPp%6--T;7F?Le=lK;fUy4WFG6314l2vjn
z@SP>7c9A)kew@)H4lb8ocx)bpr*!w*KiSPLqOR&R=jIZO8`u89QOVPV!WSuaCxQya
zdEf|doc0pV&5Q~tq8l!~sXLPSwx5!~`;RX@%XdtYA07E6tY9QmsM5THAEAqNqDy7A
zbpP9-Z>p7?X&xAOd6Hwy4tkp?X_Q=&jt6t3oBC5BtM-r1`g_ZhziQgTZ2JL4CWWuS
zoTNC;07j#I%4f|*rh@$nO;~cLAkxh`a^bk7iXumRyx7M*E?TK4H+|8`GGY0Ur+t|<
z`<Lf+t-lzRfL)DyK#@~g=1Hm-t-o)*Q``wtVxms>_vq-a{01nqLZgy57pq^*3JFNb
z)cJMnJv(mSOP6+)NI^Y0#wdA0@3ely5T}W31qAj@Rku8B3-bOJVV)w21;_qH^{jcW
z|BAg9pt@9))RJB5X#Y_h(yq|~=1R$n6x^s6aM9L@a0gdo#NgrO@q*5AvuLDlxNF|Z
zVZggxOLw9L*KF^l2h*S33bs))a>&+(%FjSVTc;yTY!BdkR5TndJ<`H%R#x70KI`);
z9W~olNL*6-iOv>Gm!r>kgG1mI5}Ao_UbI?mG_@n0sW*(yng6;=ljg&|W(Yt5$tckb
zQ<#`FIK#S3@duQkyd%k|8-9@HnnB!w>Q=?i*mZHovSO)xhI4_kq02<}9re&m!~`L)
zYg7P=CsuP+L{*%9={tZP2Updg=WQD|V#wAVGZ_Pedh#~^JeaHma(({oU&*gEt)jd`
zyySzBUa(i>$Tdv&l8n}OjbkjuNjHnMXsda>+u-M5bzbf1$KKyyPGKeTMAO4=Z2`8Q
zj4xg!`N_JjsTFJ%qc~XkXs<3<{JNOC6lLXF(hZp2l$&0ZA!~mz)*;ILPaDT2cm^Vt
zXg)afLv(A>GwPTk%#3Q;*H3@71!9vRnFcw=X$13%B8s*Ku;7g2P~L*4gx!4eD7nBc
zmd+<wsMA)7(o}=23ap}jAm)~yz*>Yz8gww!-4g1&B8lyGhS>i2!|8wb^6AKihYEld
z2Ti<gvNPZ3vuEhjMWH%TZAm2x{ka$n1PG{nqW!j%y>X9JOQ)sVj@`c~DV59q=BFZo
zVr{+gZC~{010V}=QGzQN=Hd>PNx7!oQfoJDP+Pf7fv-i}<A?ic6q2S3t7BhD)1Mkr
zeeiO!6o~9GNC#$?+p3m=YmGs*#?vainTCfM>h~iR6M9RkzUapQt_IC&Gi~CI_OG^}
zRYR^}XwmLD+UV^((iY9%vNwHC!tSrXACpCA&K>nO+bUT2hgoS>@vH^QnJf;3*NC5D
zU5dT17VoY(Q@URAJRbRTisL1^ef6W$P&~o1V3b297%`P2c4`IaD6TBlN^y9>8dcEO
zWOmE}59q`jgwtIe1l)PA8v(C^h^uRV^G*D_zIn4Eu~$t$_g-T;!E8yJfi>w7qYOtv
zrNQ&_#Dw0sm$34RBCOD4OybRYUu;PtL~Zo%81yqtBbv}pu;j!SuTW;#N9CW8C7Ra?
zT0!$hKhGs0VdHtmv4d^~U0+chi5`*dP<QIXe}L?5X+~oTKox>$UeN6z^9w#ku3qSM
zO5SmNp;Sajg!*&#>83bahT%ch@TqTgJ-R>qFcG))P#NGt{jIb=`2fA;Wb5#V3$>g*
zn)=u~qa?~>n-GyJ#`8yZ*EuPK&|NIc09%A-fK_bwCN+$*3!iO9d%|E<wdmi#K7rr%
zlr+nzEeJOTwMYA;&26}e26buPUS|2V!ivQ}<C^yY3sH|PRp*Q;{cCwn*3y6Y_w}R(
zM_?la$B5nMOHOX8{uaSy$DiAhmQ06u&IP`x7N?Ms%ZtB<atL<ChblIhKbR$kZ4P0t
z9KGZT3Xghcr*A0s?YDFf^@?4~bDG-E2B4zQ_#Hg?(=wGGyj`kvuX5d=3E*!hC~C0|
z+W`DwQ4L2S4kt99l}}pD40jmwV8D%ag~S2U-QBozI(4BcTB0I}V4crV!NMN!A46M1
z@9<0v<>Bhjk65gwp~q7ES~}KKtHykd$qHbiCz!sfzSN<kThBOvxr5<>D>3aZc@LRQ
z)ElSrW8r8Iga`?PCTuN_%^$rJOC`9L<2b`chmNBhf(759y!4+6w_o|_s=y-ue9+Ir
zhIyqdq()9NT;<96&VO(RW}JL_gWHvOp!>{A2w+?CYF~{Nyl+{4h5oLqx#)QuUA$Y<
zGLO^UYc}{h^AY9i+7G$x*wg8&-dMKv*vq+s_dR^;#KgI{s>;ZQgN?A-(PElFf}Y(4
zQKT8Z!`2KW7wRvMi3sH8DX3W5XRhO$V3wI3JLDg(8WcBM7P7W2X)&0A{OA-Hz%@is
zV}2Tgczz7NHl$x(=8(^*HTa2Y8X?;v5{tuLG_Sb=rN7W9UeVb0?$)m_4GBs3Np@N_
z6uB(aFhH*uHmK8A(#VeUxpd;_OnhD^U9!bo=FiPJ0YpAnia!!VjuwBNv6QGyxL)t^
zD9RYZP|Cs6NiBuDlB2*nZ_f#;6|-SCFhoX7>#H0{!-pP`X`HNtSY3ABHUY}FMLEL!
z^m$2FGw`+crDu#_8#mdwXrU$A0~J0BRvePrnHa_>-DN$%w)nK-I#03VnSX{l!fpHr
zofDP(LKPIgP{Xr9ZW*vVHT?T0<{jL17vsQH0Io5ryY6mZfEjhFXPsU<uf6Hoo&!)`
zMZFBJ{f$ic-@noi*j`~#G}*Rgp$tT04@T{wwi*88IvSwtQgK)s!WjT%LCnA&BHfS}
z5H7F^`x<oBt(hDan>e>@J__#Bqhbg?sAe#YPyLnnF69j~aiDt~aOFWnxbtyrv6=PQ
z4Q&a(9*3LPPM%{P;Qr3AS;M(+bJH;aiLe6cR0rpTkSQT-OSCSR)XOpQF^<%Ne`!hE
zBR*Cj$q6`lB+=uVy%277`NJDs>kE-73^T3iE#(j?VM+VWY)E<k4EM>F%>??IQ2HtS
z<2ONraIM>z7M*1f_}LWkL}mQ~pAciU!px!PtxOH{qcL2B5I5<su?QFVP(Sir29c)2
zo-JLMZZ29duOrT~aU2z^Pn?i$vu&_)o(5PT?3OxFvI|>xnjLJ%15txXSN_#kKkMWe
z@z2op0fo^Iz}Ux&MYS15Ns(j{r;@qdG&<y-mPF6eHfFDt&;lL7PPy^-!dfhVfkR$L
zE(OdN&geuB*SeV94S)YFaVh3kdRghKzegwF)r>g=97FZngD{RF!FteZi&B?kNp8>7
z-kY>|I@O5LQdMP@Zysc4*ZZpy?pmekl0#gTFJP|0P%y0;U){vk(-M(a24h7!qc>)j
zrxEqTFGWAlk7zB-rOk?aO;{$1upaGxw_zV^AIZ3!nSsv<gO|>|IyucD)_7B&+E3#7
z8!s(NjgMrLj=nMPzScg*AaV=l9T4?ayn5%>f&+c;0Pcm6L-KQwDYiz|Grr^7m!c=~
ziBsIA9R~r&j$~9RmEjg*?-O$hWsNK_@IOxDO+I?LUjvTkOSjF&kE9yc^oW=(g3jjk
z>*97N=F+_64L=S@n$l(DwjGR-Q+3AqlK^Z1=o6)wN6!d%(nJ(N>W`Y0NEyp)5LP7c
zu!gJO)2KigprwihHt~819*9@`18OhP6)@|`dUUiU17CQrBACvW6+>Fhg6hRtYMV;5
zefOZD8C$xH9Q2Qp)*B34!f#)G;YtsJD_u&E=Phi9LkAk)SXz*5Ln>$v=K<rTxAI;@
z>f!k}S8|$ImdZ-YUTAjpnO&Xzd<&Ys_H72sEX}uc*M$byOkMrg&bLU_fOaHo+LlJr
zs?o%zMK&jhYkyb6kd%#Q{P(jU{1=z%4b_8H8!(v`<BWGAyRBovW!@Rcb9YqRekrH`
zLJaX_W-48{Wdmwrp|pf_h{(Y%D#Js}=nfP`wH9~wOAZx5-+0<uD@^#-(uWGIP`qV6
zN`YYg+ZhOs`9#gV7N%l$wX@}JcHlOTE@FWq+EJgjGlG8T>YbtX#Mm6?yOQ?AqA?O%
zruy|wee_c?R%n>IkOQJ&>h|MMb9yWn))%Euq3P%W=yxWx&k=~<8}V?2rCy<3%CEYL
z35LEn`y9<0Lg!uqst*rFb+Ac=XnrRXDS&+kroBQ5Z+>^cii(k;OVtJm)k2aSvp;Ay
z5AE!VAM&xz%&7{c0NT>*y!X`u_ZE^x=`Yxj#~*hpuaiS{zNHYpy6(01fF}z%tt)-~
zb+6#5>(AkGVC?Im-M?;|!xB9PKR10!o~ZpkdaN^V;Z0J3*rVRzh|P?746ec~xen)h
zcUsK*Qw^TeMKRzHI?#>f7U90PRL_0YlzbBwfQN63VP%NNy)Vy1NZe9@`v!qR19L>E
z$Y?!rEk*o`259dvizabgBw>qX9VE35wyxJj*SOS!mNecJT$;S50;==-ocqXvV&Pw$
z{(_`BrXNCIwQl&ysQOS0LXADm)K&O6C;EHU?V+_~$Bh4gVMkGYCVNFQQS{f}#?dXe
z`OK-(!q{M|_{u~fd|5qa=qJE9h<YYvqsSs<I}`r(ha_`vhNXbHYG%%BYjN21<ZpB~
z74ZV>w2@v>_J$m=5QN=;Yi3KxoNsnLs$DkskC%OIU+@g2jZAZ(x6tmQY_PV!47Q1k
z)S_3h#9`ii=Ya*Ph-c~a%{SgHw&nsc4GYi_CfTJZi!Tjg24z>&Vk+a1xK$5VB&SB3
zkqz5`3M<@uuEk2tEjiUQTxZA!wzGouOOLRRTX*lffoIZIgB3*KF6FsA@#-lXl`QUW
z&U+4;#Oy<O(0AZ2z8IBTk;^v7>tCGZZ;uBHz*RxwZCqr(71~Kh##2|>9F?<kox7NK
z^$A|h*sj9Iv-qmgQ94S|r*c;vlX{q(!qf7l>*@l~lgWcX1HS`SP8d_Hi_kh?M)@(w
zZc8Y5IJ8=L3zczH#+<PpfAOvQrL5$EbkPFWm~;`d+=#W5r<4^jI!kAJo$RN5-9|&x
zq4WzAwaRu@uO9;_zM%VGIsNxdyTGq;FpeX#O^KWaE3k|**V0^_BcxmS=Yz&4nfj%2
zs7Z9wzdml&oZAFDbXzY0d=NZ=(B>vBF!T^_w{JHX8Az>|TvXLl@ZghB+IL#27$(ek
zXK#N!%!5~8u4=Jt+UIVA@wxy7OGf33I2bc2(KN~~gYEA*9Y<?%t;hW9_Hj)KFbkU$
znTT&^aqo&3Vi|WnZ;|a_hi%S4zv@(KnS=YyRjrC25~Em_#e5Qe-Uxn%9ZLicLM>@J
zM2$y}Yfty~hIXjc8qv2FXY4dN7fmqFZ?{MdkE#c!K5OEgP7rnoe0vE0c9<RAT=^Ud
z!k8U<8;}{Om6e~KPZ@X!s;$7=2COq68zZ&o=vU{6Y<ych>&w$Y{OB~Xf;>+}q8CM0
z`AvyAWpC)ST`2udp<Qb0Lj;xC7STS4(tW5awztqa|JVIHb%;A*!QxQkh6~hv(+9u(
zifk=H$?lec#vRZXpRG4Tr0rJeI?ZuGXE2Q5c+EW}Raj$qa@hqs`d-`HGN9wAcKGZ2
zaI>Am%BI3&L-AAA1mmN?Z5^1`XyQZXjoS;?+T{kKdVc%mwr?C!b(l_+Ly92wa@)hz
z*5TCxkg@DFui}Cyx^`pUw{bNyr*JUx9oBJSfV#c_;c5lZlR*h<6ZtI5*-7w9Qt6QI
z_?#~3&y#bR5mI$Ta7h3UeaPR_KL_lFZEEP1)Cp5!xy56UKK5#fmlh@^ROc-Py?+2U
z*skd1rdhQ+6>o-BK7kKet2lU}-qu}L-x?IXxOU^FQudbe#um8ckZmUkDhzT86^9tg
z@FDTX{%P>Lj1hf&xO-_3KHt{Rr>v^%2J<JwZQoRKH(sU|WW5;St_eK*3>qWq)Qvap
zLiviPdT#ABUOIsa*oPaxEnLMrm3jPvy)|+je^C5Ai+(-zDVt*6()18)z_DKI44InD
zJF+3Q7cdBEFwc1pk4;qZ(8CK8SffpmrZLW&Gan@dGTK7jD?$zq$yZb^yte)28?)|{
zZ|HuT*Sr`yZsib3$K%fL_S~0os=bJ5F$){}B{2795pXB*<yipjsh^B+J^57X!~La|
z&vf9i<w-W^oI^i#+rBjane}g_{B}Z0^IP+Jn}jn#$Uz&$4Vi?6n1TW8+;H4HvrK(4
z<VwT%h5T%|t(CX=be9XZ$#Yd6;qFO%Aejv9Sn$w15;QR<777wrP>PK(|1n>Pb;^n0
z$+XCvQx$1ge^gC2xrJE(AL_vCMHkq{{ne7mN<1bC64n3>xfv1OkiMtx5W77={uRFb
z8E{W{lcj-5WbM3qRK~?R4}FF&(ZtK=HSebmQ_+WR>qC6O>z5q%45_o_-tT>jv8aEP
zS00$x$70x5?z0po<P$X`?^JSZn5*LE|M?mZeb+G$WmG6bjzy1umz4kG+-%%ux-Z&;
zT)I1Bj8tIy^}`6CU1ENw)%V-sf`_%aJ@l0_dBayMw|()U*TmE|UZ#vZM_B8fO350H
zS|gufRw8pnp)BX5608nAIp|8JE_z;?z9`~(GVvz@5VrLr$x}>!TjzkLGb8j`{FZME
zg6ZoPrBGtU!;ryGTYtyiDXnHc*&wuI2^CmMcb*_&=u984^bX^hHl)Np19$bwCRW0?
z$eR{6rPN-4FpybT3gaTl=*;m@&0}m!)Ti43w<V%y-TM`%pY#-0lrhdOF*dT=_&ZQu
z{k09nMVt7aue6|iWR}M0UPpS1?+a-CYE3#Ex~&C-y8%&JKQNY$xR0xjX7m?I(;w(p
zP59Nsa_hlSZvFN$d7(0o;n(e}D|3S`IHLl`$yL#}E|`^~#I@y^sSuN?JQch%QF_I>
zC^$_vun;nB8$6OOC2*fIWsV(Z)O|sV^ZDTHOJ}Fn_rT9q;E&PgV%G<k<v?pYpXkkn
zGn<CS#-#<I+y}Q@PsXd5s~cPgt5~kzszt6Xp$8(zC@Nm*q)>FtylA!$HrJEw?`D&G
z?6iMFcT@ada(gp5ukVQ+GAK2I2S^+Ni`BVS9A7z$wLes+0CXr!f!RL7`eHl~Rtd|H
zo{8DXSJzjCraJo`HYE3->KSB>duzXwiMfbUmnKv_v1|g++BskU;&MS`a;Fe@bG;Ta
z+p6MB?1dd5+kn}|_Nd1E_~S$-6N3|0+Ww42tz&~`8}?Mqp%v(Gq7+r7eoJLT*BOGd
z;9hErKW^k;5`#x?GLKv5@$FHP_Pozkb+uo!4>)dNfjql)%vsHzzfA3o!M`u>jZtch
zbe@5;k75}%QUNz%A$sEK7I#?MsA@4fXx?6RrTaqeUAz~Sd{4CcM6t(+H)ec7WI`^-
zsy<`5m~og#Xi?U<|D;62L^y7dYK3MHd7Gigflx$Sf#@^LJ6+e#@nhk`3DdUd@i*}(
zc0e{;T!)yQr|10$)cuAhP&nJH{LXq0{<VQiGy15c?zE6?LsMqz`aAG&u_esN@WV^)
z0;AgVo_Bd?%LeNrZ*Fx)sRO5AvgYlK9~Y<Ulz-&a%g+L$y{mfgJ_Fp04}!AR?B0d+
zG?3dcnny>&;`nu3m!Ar;6@<FG6DX7d`E*sH2Kb|4uWCfn1#@X9lmpvD4ZpN^HA}Gx
zA`%-Z*x4NP(~0Fx`bY5MyO$X7Hj6nnJv_I$#RUJyv4ljkm{J}QK*I;KJ-|IS%>lB!
zjyE`SMHYN+S?1Pe(cp3LX)}^Ie#JY~U9eo?4DAVr3&lLZC7y(rmaA`FJ6aOsWR2V<
zsi;aA#Z5fN6#oFqO<TWr{Q>#C3lD~=3NmkU9)h&>r8RI#$TQ&Q>U;LPGU>aM>r?@K
z&cWIp;=+#5D0aRgcLj1fiR_hL$y*)@DE8g{M+PN>G=_ccrYJ6~&lmNEjc@47EB^9_
zE3*Yfuee_t(GH`@#b+&F<<*b#M9xY^)FntBZXz3HSM02ihw3RGwGF}TxqXGv$sOK(
zVMk<}i4C^UrohfYpn*#Q)_~ISi(Yky&l6_IRB}~!BO!gD!yyg6Mip3RzU?v!N}5$Q
zn0US~az_&?Ir8wpu749w3DP8aJM3Tl`I^3wJRqnprRDb-91$eW#V?e$D7r=T7C8FG
z6c4X})os4s$n92PLaf7~4*Zv!Ooafd?JdmhD+uL@-OZ`-UCtqYs%=IHjvm2PWQ}h=
zLK!|(hoZwU0rbzJ=hp>p&CMY%3#+>u+t0nc=!kB72Oo{U(l(AZ1~1#Varxl<exmJw
zbx&L-S{YWHJmxTOa4z|eT<3<iVe=t<=}v2W2QKhucILlMpp!s*BmWgOk2syjkX3!M
z8%N{Zf+F9pf{^d-8b@A&s`B4_+{j8)Z|8(y^Y5ZuhVjELDejFi^_+-5=O@BEBt+ri
z?Y!{~yoP$FdhL68vi>B#*_wIby}i0v$GTnh13!O9T~rr<De~`ug;_HiAVD2m1x|HO
zeDm{n%!3BNLcj0vi?|v{DqZI&Dh2x+hnW6&_x<9}|3dkkt7~f;phX_tN(X<+iOkz3
z>i3IXz;3>Z^0_+3Vgl!j{q=nv=lmKH6^!hGKb2`Y#z=W%LmKj<``NFR>SF6o(F<Mr
zsF%>BO>YM|aBT_sZ7*!qUZ%Nnr_7796zs;wwuyEfvLh8!HhY`0`(n3^{Hd!i17Wk7
zwQ<r9x0Qcm@y6n!dX2d8;TpR9kNbCk?d7$vmripY(HWv2cr$9r(0R+A**MzC<GSM_
za@$>>J7~(z#{<2UQS__}(;=`DrA~<d*#^6j|M^|y@n@c3caGw};?1C1gebw1RAOhm
zc#nYAGu~9^YI|aFB!Z{s%cpReXK3{Riu-D<M15roltUENt$5@nEVI)#FAd8^pVU0M
z^B}^M@arYbr}63eI%~xYkqs2pC+GnuYr~>3cFV8VL-K0Q`HoKcrpcoDmXy~v%sSE*
ztk1U4SNc)EEv9Q-@r|#$4g7oNpxWxc<;9mUw??MF2_IWVQQ;eNibt_~ifn}#d3*Qq
zB(&y1Z1+028HJN?<EAa*QDVFsfAn8<`+Hkmz{GUME_huo^7b+V;pe4g!wA_RK3Or%
z^aFWAv@Ll{;2ZX~c6eW7h)@xy_@UcYr7mhVWwEdqX(WvL2nu;l^>Y*--z{I#C4=6v
zDh%Wmz3wX7OIG2}bZ>J(*Ul^`FXWh?Z{CkDVPES5?g}W^;kO<EymM3~&})%AWo_=*
zi);E@pY059zU_B=^QjK`zUp=_=?iF&Kq_m7oB>`_#WX-ft6spR@)L%`@mpfBBf5=R
z{gn(yen!3^EclgZ?0FHOj(OK&`a^q(dQJW!{q>UX9%JJGxeg;5b*1{~)IaCgVmSi7
z@M)f3)@R8&T^ICqxtG?8AhlP?-SpVCu-URWQ8}NEEw<{;*|K@{xV3e^HKFQO)T+^f
zW8%fQQFUpS-)`!PqPo$xk9J#o9MGuvR-a70J`Ry+$@A*YGq?l)&--5uW$$yoZ{|@!
zty5yud=>7#s*Ux3eXF#Oa}8}n8=v$0H2WIP6;7fCT~Zbxp$wm`d))~y-$S3Ts{kwY
zgK{ui3@LteXS`!@L<Ww-W{|duHkCQpM)QTY4=i-%a);y-@|SjE$-5HVm4vE6-PQ9n
zb&8M&PR?}f(!8WR2P@~%%?-GEYO0DF^ect7rdo(8qBtWGvf|7#`v^`cKD{0b$6KFc
zl-{S4c#6f{l%jMQ=sPCm7Y~r%M*)#fmE`D?*Tzk~y^y_g6;x273OVwNyfdHvD0a#K
zf8v}@X66}`&4@5zd5^c^T?lb5VqGjGTi2T15;QX)E2r$CtNkKK(IBiEA&*(X40A7c
zSWGP^Xkg~>jawtU+WGiQsw(%|+I3IIsZX9Ae@F_b|1-PCJIcg4=aE=`CHc38$EcmP
zWn<Ofp)A*1ZzDwgNrlkCc-@2P(hI%xz8#Fcp-~y;PRD1knt+FVP&OH+atyQYXw>XA
z=3i9<Gj+1^SFDe7fI}JI*R$88RL0@vpC=Bh*|%uQ!Y71!D}+MMRdA#x_`+$CNFke5
z|2!<r?AGu+e-l}#Bdl_8uo^CcQ^li@Qv6M^8PDwUT{|AjReq{2RRkW+$1mI5kEX=e
zi6@_}yPQPloF~t%EJ-p2^JrrOGy{FXoi|+`$(uNnsIcPjuARLjCWt4<=r25N6}G;s
z61UnXQ^xAE7o24v8m-sxhVk20kbnY15hRb?P>#^2<~Ze6Mwid{QGYP&+50&26$HwT
zb7gyc>Wz&=4kmgti4m{HPamS<Cloruzahulj88tfSs&zC9{?`_%rFfzkZx$6k&&t&
z{?Xu#2v#w65$cjk`u4^-GAI#W;zN*Zlg$2pDsf5aNv=}p1sgcE!Llyu{iDuni@Y;`
zs)98<=4$=y<z@0Cg?Ohle(GB$aPXr)?F~BO3EY@a_$p!(X5eZRBdJCdsvn&!VwiLg
zqw**2jD+HR*k1w@M=yNBJ@hYTi)ny>=%yG0Sf`t@C8S5#`#S*9;nA7=dbQ^oef!Kp
z5CKa`o`$?LCA2vz=7a49wt-)qfE-!n!}HdzzYX$W;RIt|9kLyNW-C)pK)R}7b_$`J
z7uNgj_mQ3~-}%uu0B}+PZ^7BB%j=yFyglqg(Yqt@x7qxY<Ek6)b&SYb=w(4;^!9wn
zeJcv8{;vM6vvomQj&Jg-l0a_Jg8T23Jr#H5FY{e&V^T*P;UiXb@f>+ua_YxEchqt?
zp41)rK=r#Fo<Mc%DvyhvPm}h4J9^lb!j>=;(C?A?+ug<+qHZ$;{fO?qe8tC$eRm;t
zy#pr)*23Oj2a~A!mI6s{-b|Zv#L9EcJ~dzV&e*d<Mq?Kh*Z_F9bz@T-z5)>XP^7+s
zc5Pn|^PgAsVsCfU*^*>ruo+FFY#gGQA6-)UnqD&R=ilwg^lye9FPN8PoqIDG>rhgs
zkHBNL!=ZMceuflFlubQ%<a{;x*F#@^34YdeNE`WgEnsAu;BNa}hL2L{A++$tzx+YS
zvp?oj_(@udn}IOk)f*}0s7P-bLa&Hu8Y-*!9TQ1RXeXyydhFX1whK5A0|>!`+=1Ky
z-2vYL-htQw*#Y}O1O(%O{y+v20g+#SxL^XIfp|c8Ao?rPJ>)%?3*;;NJ@q~8eIAwS
zd|i$r)d>mPH~w#g*TIePmtl{hZzL%9X$m4SLkYs8p|yE8ij<~L(Updxa%bT+iSq(C
z#r%h|voyyx$8^V2)2Y)q(?`=5)8#}e94A=EX2%rAP{)9KuVa!)u^<<(Z?A;+d@kQs
zQIJTm{J=KAFM=<_>_hc~?StJ&bgBY4gfz%|e1li96mgWFsiu>soh)%(1nM!{ctPCL
zwwBmz7_ZE15E;-LkPD(3!qJKlY*=M?Qqu+M5DOwko!@swL0Ho+)R6F@QE_1Kf%kF9
zvm$tsNTqp{lHq@R09x(<Eu0`-7EwxSyog{j65Lriq1KMrdQTJ}4iE+ij(f{>4{(9h
zy0$siKPD<6Zov!zn-cYK0*Q6jVfX$*2Pwj0BI1%lU_v@_>4nY_2DDG3-gC%5{Wyla
zr@V)DApjBrk${*Q|86Cd3*Z&&9@Pc*mExYH9s$P($A!uT#)a1f{~iX?l&&7C6?qlb
zPW;pWr7}QW6i1{yPi|Uz80kTTe_CWb2HR4A4aGXdiHUYa5u1%@G#FdRZ5Y~2=tL1O
z37$eYToF78oWcbBMsmkdaz{|qKqyx<S2$PXU%7H#EJ*lRVOnCE7=!{s$$J7l<++0x
zLGF2iLJs7DtZ}Y;c`npQ(jm%urqpN=VY_*n!{DWHz0%aE%0gh0I|}jf|24^fPGJ!r
z-xVSdm=hEuGDU)w8<-R98w8gboB>nX46}-~0b>{D3vCya6MFe56-WMJ@4qN|mL~&h
zn5IzVRdytvhjS${z!tTe*0*F)g-RARi-VvIVF+Ug@`ac4m(DXTfu#*D1JNi_sD3*T
z4UjZ~Vnc)X-;YB?C-Iwfp8j3}ZaghE+=FHbh?Y^j6A_)ZI>x-m`Il-M9ugj~Jdhvg
zt7mX8a8|Jj-o((`#<|UaAq?Szlqwgs6hRCFYa4n83<oqSwuh9V-{k#O;S%8zzr(`&
zPSaBi(B8s*g2R?&&Pm-cp3t7qpHM&gH~JZN8FuA&k$2s8Id;`|vDL!NsA__m)0@Ma
z<Da=}vY&BlqMvCTA!^iGMx6+2!j~m=We70MVWW{3WXGV(bPH^ol4wFsM99w!v5oM?
zKYB5;#Bh8N>gP-_MXMqHJ@S2KE=hcl4G3wPeOe)pSXAR*7Hfz+Osk^&BWcQmtU-7s
zcx8b_LdnynmI)Gq>8fDKqUOVpVxmg_miZ2-hG4rF#6*n=9}q}d5GD@vXXP@F?;;VP
z5+E0#kVnr&C7%1;CDkrWK&4NmPp(g)51R2x_xR2AlTVW1yRUFTeF(I%{~K;#2h!<J
zL!LZ}Y2y+?>mY1l1dzHVSQ5ekiR}N#xAQopQ6cX^VR-6q36VV1Y_JbG#xj#epd2}}
z3|OOmBWqbg4bN!}rcgEHUr)e5QOja4zMh#szQ^_ozxb?h{&gOrVt7YBc01-cRzEJD
zMw(W)M7VWib>W`}pBQ?W3YrYc0JTgLSaPr-WWaHQC@rDc2s5DBMUWJEl0vDAL}(OQ
zk{~HW;1u~VVFt*i)rY}HNWgYUk&R;>k_yTDnRX~bf6w*PNRM@)8esU536OnCdP{l>
zwJWqsoV+mHAm703YV9`lEA8U$TJ6&8O6_v?WAyL!f4liscn!AeYwW)kjn;zFirWg;
zibj6xY{`31eheSmBi>3dql2Octp{Hjv?%hg>~DHtT5KB6lHG;09$p)+1*BgB<0OnD
zw4sPo53Y^;BWRQa2D%cHHh@wD<3Dp5KF=G`hzJw%gp}}42wNN;T>`waNB}agXPo#x
z#je;c)Gpx0YuCO1uHTtWI@7AAWwU8JD|VaFwIc7VSwym4mtmRyj63t7w#;=>=52|4
zN&SJF@#M<6>@DKW`VG?6fbAr|^Rsj56`bL(_Fj95U$jair72RCwqC=ir_mQ}F%YX*
zOY6Xmqh-s{ZwFgsUG9>@y~-={4Zu!q?|kJ>?1%tCj=~#t8Mr&@dMRfw5Zrh-K5;T&
zUanJFeqQOs?e(fBpHA1au#XO}(8{&Bvy0u_s>kQLdL%7bipeX{)|*dT$q-gPL!qm<
zaBzNk<@C2i`|{nC8%MPWJ!@Q=PXbn!k*y|LB+(?;VyrdwX0*_yA-j=cGUk(Fa-fmJ
z!pkqyIo=Lbx6s(VVw`!DwIw*^nPd02uEp=KbBtZ1GxkHSm5me6TV@uk?OfK}TQN7j
z?ZYI{I@h|~b@5?|$HrD|^7NC|!UT(RK>Z|(eqZZ2J859rZ-e>FSblJL9$|dLymQUF
z*L#-UB~w1*xnU+tz}jwpkXl$lfiH*bM?5~c`_Idmq%$8V;W;~9i~TmFGeqyA9wU#*
zU%ezIq1n*-T}oY|T{?_x$2#}9#}fCo8$kP}%j!$5?CCt48P^lY4*3cMVdQK(??U~v
zk_O8QZKFUvoie*=c>IPeQJb+c7fXx;IvIAP4D9G?(LQcAsnX=!5^>dbQ89di(Labl
z_}IUu;1&m5gHZ9oLXPy!iU>b$Z4CfaN5?sa4s%iW_p4w7!}qKF0nrm)&E=2ZCsA_=
z=MFF7nypcsC+%`NQuqF5*QM^!WjqGY%V$QuV&QXCJ2_tv-9@c<xn&&9UusD}g=qpn
z;H+0jCI`;5M^DXOvvYG^vtGcH7I$BihWpkN!CWpNWt-Q)j}Cs>^XCr~M^@yd%{_Zi
zhmRfquH(juvD{DZ=&$P`zg1kPuN$;C2j8Fd;}*MJ+Q?6^RQo*IkC+u{+$*w+zx>2C
z#WlBsS+ETH%hCha`aH}J2K-|7nmdpSq7=qaP>aNDkT&L;tr9W4G3fX|2X8zb2n7G_
zpIwPX>Er_J`#4T(YFakMPVFPsKogVl=!0Nkf5+C{yu5gNuB>QLc-zNB$HvZ~NwsiO
zc>9LOWn=ZdwdNOBCG$j9_J)I?L9?0NRrT_xB@t*W=za9!P&hQPvC3;>DpA^X`~s!a
z?6f3`qzH;M;E8u*dz6gnn4ItR^oqsvg*tLKJzy+_`jv9g(Gdvhh*Tr4#R7?E@>2<N
zJU)_4`wdGLFcphso-Hiblgr0x<GX2bKkJ0cmrh;a69@h%0v^hq!{`2W50z7|lP*_*
z4zZp$mx+=thMN!bH2L>BBPSju3rW>P7jr%f5=mB^FfWcgOLcw}DCA}`_gC1;P0CUw
zp#EeePGR%)-#VCvq>D_PsQpgauU;I^nV`h(=|b+=CCaH*A|n+`{UbVqN0UcW8VreX
z|2$|Y2E`n|HV7IiBxH}Zfbi6L*~|MdtAB=c8t(JkSZ!Tz?}xDZFDWTDlG^DwfIdN<
zH%Kl;a3+BOv@Q2~+cFl3m&%h*UVEDAkj84FXO3zYDFuhJAC?>Ij{QgNuu$A48I2~z
z@rYf1ejpTYz|f&yo<^G1QcFdt)pcw^MusYtGZ^ncy2JW8^8Gz2V&z9=DYK_le9J^R
zRir__WZpBgC+C>qf$dWIjWb{Y+Bs?fFV{fPl9mk@0ZE)PRKbe11Ri16G{UwO7{<{u
zXv$V%)_N_iw*d*?FA!#227qRUFC4t?ofR$s444GD1px*+>0BkQnVgKdP_pi7sEd-S
zS)_MN4Q441oFz>{@-Q$v^JOomoI}Xyqk3r*nIm>0km@oR8qR1!F=oxO0++Ogs3=$S
zAzo;lqV=no)W>y`)Rt8f&_M)`w7n|EtQq(+^_1`~qkrC26JrbveEU+$d89|_PDO%5
zMfPvXNL+>dc_i7}`T2Oq?CVnwG$*tYt?^~Z?*{*MVbx)M8GT<j9U4yw!94mCukz02
z$&X-OYI~CIxS4AW7j6Urexz7V&&*7kqN*kGCr3bpFpd|!jQoT9VQ^kJh%pXRia8Fm
z73NdkfLT$pb;k3u3hHfdfQpt(IbwFsslY6tfWqjRPTyffTC!fn@KHJ5_&c_l0)@Fw
zy|#>-u}F$qah-Ygq|%9+6E{DcjVh2C9hm%#MbJ9?jdfz!+-*qf1yg{AyiXlKgpH#^
zytH0nUKYsp5QQfS@6+v^MzFvR)wui%3t>!gh<!<ccHS&i)nY0AbibK8%5PrvDqcAv
z;6oA{sz=kKKQ7yqjdu(u#^-CirXP+6FS)&aJ?p!{BCO!_ek>t+G)kC=C^+UVVS5e>
zEh(!sO%@}<?<vXj6(%KKr07R#iY_*x947mEN4EYq4?7oN6a}|zPo^l{k;{K;=SrZO
zIJdB^eXYe(k9}0BTc@-<ppwj%Nis1+AwWe5ML`e&ZI%fH5++V2tV$ObY$;fME>&9f
z=yO9*5kW=4qZPG+yRxZIOQ{8yQV=aF()UjS1QdL=r#-LdJmwrSll$NQ-uvJC=g<8=
z{+nSA<eihdes(iSn#YEJw*L8n-}`=3o|YCh|57@0Jty07rf}2jIjwsS<0BWymd|t>
z?(*n*>y7o^lT#JRUel(in(LC1nu1<)8|ktrf6Y<Xud1ta@b?;!T)QE=2CbNIdW3e<
z;^ITZ)|R&tZv~HX7+&gWcmL4Ai{E9DlA>#+KexM)Md!{g`<x#$Gv(6KdnX6u2YL2G
z-dO6ASr+47P+DKYYucV|sLVC+c8X@9`7xI^O&-2zqqB~BW9YX(<PUQ{F>&nXsiip~
zt95VFuhMrT!$*vz#+^Db!Jv;@<D0eZWX73=?|pzy9#UEN!_gBCt9D-&@Af0Us~NPd
z+%eLicWrxVI6lxtd-Y?Jto%zy=f!?|^Q!L_msK^}=Y#rBJi}h~n)11E&Shis-Z}s9
z6Tev%2M$EXM6F7y+Lq}roSQ#?W5B7+zu2YDt+o%}{*&v=m`j>H{AT1q4P86Bwy4Uj
z)NkL9ky3a&M0(GexA(*^nR)A8&!2H7FgU;ZM!ssqS1RPojDKi_4aBgF$hV{ac5*;v
z?I1>T!BMf$!Ng2Rj4+F}W3FF;Vpok{tZf>KE-KlV@`bMb6komm?z}sw|C!^@6AwNp
zIOjNwT9h?o)ec=-d|^`Jm3lqyvn*ii<O|{J<pZCepW^WHs_O6SGv!OZKd?@-_vU`Q
zp{6DKvSZjsQ^!m=d+j}$gM&lHq{8;{=uxWVRN~5Kbw7uXKBO#dIaYg@%&h;mv25C#
zl9-&9*|#RFegtPme<(>@Y`@~Q-Akv0j2=o~`{c!WM^^oCrfuH-xA<+*5z+ByUy*x|
zZaTL4e&Zue?d`9}``azxPv4MnI{Wyd)9(*DwLL3x<+KY08+fLQI)BAFuRvF#XhLMf
zO!@2^N0wb{BJyL7{%F>(T3Znq6S{T5v=J%VImW$bqy5r%{>yoj|CeDQ2@P!#krS6m
z&TI)<U0dtFaF9u3yu9~#>uf(aAG~Z+j_y>*$ZsxW(<P-xiAfVDw(a<amL$yI;oSa)
zhW<77<<_%9HcU^9d*RhN>CH{}l$R#{uB)x_P~y@1sar-Lej)G3v7H0Jf0GTFkAD5o
zDBV1MgX}adI(sZqak|o&)jpWtGV9J4dDSg?jpwqF(pYM6m`nJnqUj=2-kK#tYwles
z46iD_HJJa!`PoY%9HQDs>fS+w%?(3J3Nx>yrM5(myprZt<(8c>22amwga^AXJ-X!1
zTJt-5%4WT~u6aZIu21gH-tlP|Kj^b#bx{w?M&V6qZPc2E)|HQ_kEy1{`(@Y)XYbas
z=YqF4t!$VxKfRi-rNZ3**>1N*u-s|aqV;D>lNXidtgLx=OWk_MPfzDwIOn(V^>W|v
z6IIxQ{9O$f3g?^86popd`}O63;?Q%Zk#}>}Jz6nk?Scyxejbv!k7~Xx-o3Kw{3MT@
zx_C+E-h#@?cYiW$+|^oS2o4X3&%3iV_h#1Ik`Hgznu>-seIC-9>AWUmIk~l>Vcbhi
zccTKgUJSk2RD9horr_b}b+P5IyRToJRe0~g_NliFm#C8`%H4Mc+>WTbaid|z<=EVM
z#+<NkM#{MTAyqk4*^02u3H*lo+j#+Wqb?y=Pv;XMl@*oCH;3-#-;AigQSRC}qax(W
z<mEm;mK?gOx_v9JFyUVO?)^ErA)ybKo?7$o_|TNBg360E6(t8Qno9~MU&b~SwLW~m
zs%GEeNojeKQ1;%rc04&e<x)yc?%0}J>__~ogWYd1JL=8m!e6S|c}W+KXNU2&MVWKH
z+PHQ(b$;%?x=q8-v8h|4UMw(ADb9G%@?ekqgFUyJ#*c%KOjBGv6s9w$rdPbRMjtiU
z@%%z#{EQvqtJy9Glh$ePOA^vk53h8`&g^-my?I0W+M$o8UoPApG(1_fMdgsTC3{ry
z-&?m07&yT9rs#HWCCj+2cK2CImPui^l4T)@LOdK1LMSFAAW|rbv^4rE4LW_2t6Ztq
zsTiG`m8R2E7$|rKS|2M}_V?;6S>}1sdW|0ox~VOFf>?%P)zNSO%@~w=3n|oEPc1?a
z*vjY`7p12l9!kJLEM*9RP?Y40L?Spi$w*mxaAntw&dAaXJiVhDTObt6WcE~?hE~Pc
zcPrfvFdIza2xPG_(#FxP$~g%3w$ZzJP)?gcWj6{>)@e-PVs4C)Rto}^QIyHnMPPHf
zKNT0nMnkv|!{8vZiskH`uJE^ZQ&6l@qhyt~LTTyvM59t2OR<oOiqge-I5qA+=mhCB
z9!{Zz0#O*{RJ3klGD8I=2L!8=W7VX_X}ru%nkY#$7!5!glnB1yOp-(oCnXp*B>~SI
z8Fqp!ENrZYlPA{zO;-d$a+;wa0UzU|JT)S~Ap+y$B20vd-60G?NEkt3R1ADBLBtY7
z0CikWGCS}jWi(pJRBzu7h2WisQ#8vOB`}<jkibvC`7{#+qa+E$U@(U900+;M6vrwP
zd2yz<twK8GbOujH$3dK2rHVGQ9!^f2qOQw2GL5=RkI~HNEm|~cn9@@QP<3yDQ9cTH
z2?u?p8nr~rO)OTXG#bH_Q?ft{Y}9C_u&v3ah~rl?loCuN%Q(B#TLv6N&F)F%G;kK{
zbuxyIQJNT93U|D>$>f+U)Slff20W>Yvw+pHda9=;iyBWo+mmY3&jmuFSH?woI3@Bl
zlvZihvraOFPR-CJTFXL#bOOZ$(mL*^2_RE~lI0tXEEF!M4MyM+l}@i?lOP4Hp+H{J
z_Xv6#U>QLVTdjS&#k12~i}~H?|1Hj7K6eE=&cwIOX1<y>z==vD2r|+$$befS=b}b=
zgFhLDpcoHDc_<!?ViFXQ2n1shRDvK<_%TjfkfdELG!snIdRbtQWkDhM8oeG0p%@c4
zI|=Y<!MaK5;C)OCaHCF}^jl2n#@Qj`5Az_H;=OwiGyo6cJv|7Bl0b&mnAH>`^8}Md
zrDP#*or%@y^%Mh<d@ypzHB<*y(*%>7l=}eL`2T3rK`0c8-i_}JzroPceoGgLH?1~v
z>wurP%xu<aBw`_@REacVo=~gS@C3L@#ZywKibtwNYDBBjs+1y;C7KFF_r5*D3EKSP
zOsq0aO?Al?Ym{Pw((puL5yBIwHA)_dYsEY@A*M*R5G<i8>s;&E_o;re1|BS_U_FPs
z7WB@~PuDv1r##pO{HKVw3hh_&OwR3hSHHWS$pg>C+&{be-Stc!cqZol+4YCH%g(kX
z1Y21Trv$L!>t&-)*tVRWW;U8;Ts!t7Zm=aW2FWXzkGgtGxa1f`Q5?J?mb};nL0mex
zK)1frUN;zIt4|lwnL)btl|e>yrjQYCZg4QS%W?fZTNF3jUOSPYwDxugBm^&A7bGMI
zoPf9n?h>IS2KMCK1;yED1lYnqP7?zdpeGGOZ~y`Hq!A(x;^?HYj1s^ejJ=&y3J2+u
zDM$$Wd523$Oo$0_p+M{__Z9mHyfIWjqBxGCA|DYVCq*(TD)%IP#oj)04EI7vfxuHP
zlzWjvxesXe@$^Dv96VtMQcs4p4iiPeFrA%!-uJb)>kVWe1^pmHKgiG>qv!`2o&qL;
zP2<ydnLUuCE`Z>#4l<w;9O;gCJP9&@Zzl`h(Fs8I230&Er30+A@OFH`_k$GxYyGQ(
z6)Fv`(qNdDCq_`5ClC@so>C0p5RqC<h)_&`sZ?Yq2+|Gccxs6I!HQ=}@cLlxPm}v_
zOz-4=clGX<KB)cf>ccU;ll$G(yI=aC_PeVO$MjDA|8Un|9;`qunXwh|_#c23+?fIH
zGy(t$<a8X%{l_{SMYw|m;6#J<#vL~R?}XNy$a*6!H_Xb3SvVsBu0tEW=)`c6;1fbz
z4B-UM$8Zq@4r%ZaaAX7g8a<!D#F4Oq(&&^NC)b|<>=*`#1z02;sAPZ%kVPdtl`_$0
zMopO@i#B*F%>uv(A`#mWhbK`Nw0G1+0AZalixA^}z`heIu{?;uD;Ps3O$>EP5hLJ7
z^KA`J;3_x)tfE=S;uY90PD?`^?ltu{!Yw%BMG8m`YQaP#Dj>w(a>7e2#6%(=A5YvD
YkpYh|R6GcU@G;y)j0gx|WC!x{AK3`n#{d8T
literal 0
HcmV?d00001
diff --git a/inst/vignette/hydroPSO_vignette.Rnw b/inst/vignette/hydroPSO_vignette.Rnw
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..93e361b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/inst/vignette/hydroPSO_vignette.Rnw
@@ -0,0 +1,1789 @@
+\documentclass[a4paper,12pt]{article}
+%\documentclass[a4paper,12pt]{scrartcl}
+
+\author{Rodrigo Rojas, PhD \\
+ Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, PhD}
+%\pdfbookmark[0]{Titlepage}{title} % Sets a PDF bookmark for the title page
+
+\title{Tutorial for interfacing \emph{hydroPSO} with SWAT-2005 and MODFLOW-2005}
+
+\date{\today}
+
+%\subtitle{for hydroPSO >= 0.2-0}
+
+%\VignetteIndexEntry{Tutorial for interfacing \emph{hydroPSO} with SWAT-2005 and MODFLOW-2005}
+%\VignetteKeyword{}
+%\VignetteKeyword{}
+
+\usepackage{Sweave}
+\usepackage{natbib}
+\usepackage{doipubmed}
+\usepackage{url}
+\usepackage{graphicx}
+\usepackage{graphics}
+\usepackage{booktabs}
+\usepackage{fancyvrb}
+\usepackage{multicol}
+\usepackage{multirow}
+\usepackage{amssymb,amsmath}
+\usepackage[ruled]{algorithm}
+\usepackage[noend]{algorithmic}
+\usepackage{threeparttable}
+\usepackage{rotating}
+%%\usepackage[hidelinks]{hyperref}
+\usepackage[colorlinks=true,linkcolor=black,citecolor=blue,urlcolor=blue]{hyperref}
+\usepackage{setspace}
+
+\begin{document}
+
+% The following 6 lines are necessary to avoid the following error: "Error in driver$finish(drobj) : the output file 'MyDocument.tex' has disappeared". From: http://r.789695.n4.nabble.com/Sweave-problem-after-R-update-version-td4566044.html
+\SweaveOpts{...}
+<<Rsetup, echo=FALSE>>=
+CUR_WD=getwd()
+setwd(".")
+@
+
+\maketitle
+
+\clearpage
+
+\tableofcontents
+
+\clearpage
+
+\addcontentsline{toc}{section}{List of Tables}
+\listoftables
+
+\clearpage
+
+\addcontentsline{toc}{section}{List of Figures}
+\listoffigures
+
+\clearpage
+
+\section*{Preface\label{sec:preface}}
+\addcontentsline{toc}{section}{Preface}
+The next tutorial shows how to use the \emph{hydroPSO} R package to calibrate different model codes. Two of the main properties of \emph{hydroPSO} are the independence from the model to be calibrated and the simple interfacing between the model code and the calibration-engine, i.e. \emph{hydroPSO}. These two properties are illustrated through the calibration of real-world case studies, which should be the starting point for a user planning to implement \emph{hydroPSO} for her/his own model calibration exercise.
+
+We show here how to use \emph{hydroPSO} to calibrate a semi-distributed hydrological model and a steady-state groundwater flow model. The first is fully implemented in SWAT-2005 \citep{neitsch+al2005a} whereas the second is implemented in MODFLOW-2005 (MF2005) \citep{mf2005}. Both model codes are widely-used programs to solve surface water and groundwater flow problems. At the same time, for illustrative purposes we use the program ZONEBUDGET (ZB) \citep{zonebudget} to obtain groundwater flows at particular aquifer cross sections. The purpose of including ZB is to illustrate how to interface \emph{hydroPSO} with a sequential modelling application. In this case, however, only MF2005 is calibrated against observed data and including other observations can be easily implemented in a similar way as described here.
+
+Both programs SWAT-2005 and MF2005/ZB are public domain and accessible from \url{http://swatmodel.tamu.edu/software/swat-model/} and \url{http://water.usgs.gov/nrp/gwsoftware/modflow.html}, respectively. For simplicity, we must assume some basic knowledge from part of the reader about the file naming convention used in SWAT-2005, MF2005/ZB, as well as the setting up of the internal options for these programs.
+
+As an integral part of this tutorial, the reader can download from \url{http://www.rforge.net/hydroPSO/} two files \href{http://www.rforge.net/hydroPSO/files/MF2005.zip}{MF2005.zip} and \href{http://www.rforge.net/hydroPSO/files/SWAT2005.zip}{SWAT2005.zip} including all the required files to run SWAT-2005 and MF2005, sample R scripts to interface \emph{hydroPSO} with SWAT-2005 and MF2005, as well as several auxiliary files.
+
+For assistance, bugs report, comments, and suggestions please contact the authors of the \emph{hydroPSO} package at:
+\href{mailto:mzb.devel@gmail.com}{mzb.devel@gmail.com} and/or \href{mailto:Rodrigo.RojasMujica@gmail.com}{Rodrigo.RojasMujica@gmail.com}.
+
+\clearpage
+
+\section{Introduction\label{sec:intro}}
+\emph{hydroPSO} is an R package implementing the Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO) algorithm \citep{kennedyeberhart1995,eberhartkennedy1995}. PSO is a population-based stochastic optimisation technique inspired by social behaviour of bird flocking, which shares few similarities with other evolutionary optimisation techniques such as Genetic Algorithms (GA) \citep{poli+al2007}. In PSO, however, the solution-space is explored on the basis of individual and neighbourhood best-known ``particle positions'' with no presence of evolution operators (e.g. mutation or crossover) as in GA. PSO has recently received a surge of attention in literature given its flexibility, simplicity of implementation (programming), low memory and computational requirements, low number of adjustable parameters, and efficiency \citep[see, e.g.,][]{eberhartshi1998,shieberhart1999,eberhartshi2001,poli+al2007}.
+
+The main motivations for developing the \emph{hydroPSO} package are:
+\begin{enumerate}
+\item bring this powerful optimisation/calibration technique to the attention of practitioners and scientists working on environmental modelling,
+\item provide a model-independent software package allowing the user to calibrate (different) environmental models without having to invest considerable programming efforts in customizing the calibration engine to the environmental model, and
+\item allow the PSO research community to explore alternative advancements and configurations of the standard PSO using a versatile single-package software.
+\end{enumerate}
+
+Unlike other R packages recently developed for similar purposes (see e.g. \emph{hydromad}, \citealt{andrews+al2011}, \emph{R-SWAT-FME}, \citealt{wuliu2012}, and \emph{pso}, \citealt{psoptim2012}), \emph{hydroPSO} is not restricted to a limited number of hard-coded models, can be interfaced with any model with a relatively low programming effort, is fully compatible with calibration tools employing PEST-like template files \citep[see][]{pest2010}, and is easily parallelizable.
+
+\emph{hydroPSO} is also capable of performing sensitivity analysis using the Latin Hypercube One-factor-At-a-Time (LH-OAT) method \citep[see][]{vangriensven+al2006} and provides detailed information about the evolution of PSO's performance. In addition, advanced plotting capabilities and a complete family of built-in functions contained in the R language \citep{R2011} are available to visualize and summarize the calibration results, respectively. At the same time, \emph{hydroPSO} features a suite of controlling options and PSO variants for fine-tuning and improving the performance of PSO, thus, allowing the user to adapt the calibration/optimisation engine to different modelling problems. For a full description of the PSO enhancements included in the \emph{hydroPSO} package the reader is referred to Section~\ref{sec:pso}.
+
+In principle, \emph{hydroPSO} only needs to know \emph{which} model parameters need to be calibrated, \emph{where} they need to be written, and \emph{from where} and \emph{how} to read the main model output. Then, it will take control of the model(s) to be calibrated until either a maximum number of iterations or an error tolerance in the objective function are reached: these two being problem-specific and user-defined. The basic interaction between \emph{hydroPSO} and the model to be calibrated is shown in Figure~\ref{fig:f01vign}. For models with numerous input and output files or cascading models (i.e. serial modelling applications), several I/O functions can be combined to interface \emph{hydroPSO} and the model.
+
+\begin{figure}
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=0.5\textwidth]{./figures/f01vign.pdf}
+ \caption{Flow chart of the implementation/interaction between \emph{hydroPSO} and the model code to be calibrated. Dashed-line boxes represent basic I/O functions to read/write model files \citep[After][]{hydroPSO2012}.}
+ \label{fig:f01vign}
+\end{figure}
+
+In this tutorial we show first how to interface \emph{hydroPSO} with SWAT-2005 \citep{neitsch+al2005a} to calibrate a semi-distributed hydrological model for the Ega River basin in Spain. That section illustrates three main points: 1) basic interfacing between \emph{hydroPSO} and the model through the definition of ASCII files \emph{ParamRanges.txt} and \emph{ParamFiles.txt}, 2) advanced sensitivity analysis using LH-OAT and the use of \emph{hydroPSO} pre-defined goodness-of-fit measures as objective functions, and 3) the set up for calibrating a model output variable in time and static in space (transient application). Second, we show how to interface \emph{hydroPSO} with MF2005 \citep{mf2005} to calibrate a groundwater flow model for the regional aquifer of the Pampa del Tamarugal basin in Chile. That section, in turn, illustrates: 1) advanced interfacing between \emph{hydroPSO} and the model through the implementation of user-defined I/O wrapper functions written in R, 2) how to define/use a customized goodness-of-fit measure as objective function, and 3) how to set up \emph{hydroPSO} for a model output fixed in time but variable in space (steady-state application). Details about both applications are summarized in Table~\ref{tab:table1}.
+
+%%%%%%% TABLE1
+\begin{table}
+ \caption{Distinctive features of the SWAT-2005 and MF2005 applications presented in this tutorial.}
+ \label{tab:table1}
+ \centering
+ \resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{
+\begin{tabular}{l l l}
+\toprule
+Application feature & SWAT-2005 & MODFLOW-2005 \\
+\midrule
+OS & GNU/Linux & Windows 7 \\
+Type of model & Semi-distributed, surface hydrology & Fully-distributed, groundwater \\
+\emph{hydroPSO}-model interface & Basic through ASCII files & Advanced through user-defined R functions \\
+Executable model code & Single file (swat2005.out) & Sequential batch file (*.bat) \\
+Simulated model outputs & Transient (1962-1970), single observation & Steady-state (1960), multiple observations \\
+Goodness-of-fit measure & Pre-defined Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency & User-defined Gaussian likelihood \\
+\bottomrule
+\end{tabular}
+}
+\end{table}
+%%% END TABLE1
+
+We therefore believe that this tutorial cover two standard-problems commonly found by the modelling community. We must note, however, that these tutorials deal with surface water and groundwater modelling applications as these two are the authors' areas of expertise. However, based on the flexibility of the \emph{hydroPSO} package and the benefits added by programming it in R, we believe this package can be implemented to a wider range of environmental models requiring some form of parameter estimation. To the date of writing this tutorial, we have provided support to users calibrating models such as: SWAT-2005, MF2005, LISFLOOD, AGNPS, HBV-96, and SWIM.
+
+In Section~\ref{sec:pso} we present a brief description of PSO, including the main algorithm, discussion on topologies and PSO variants and fine-tuning options available in \emph{hydroPSO}. Section~\ref{sec:package} briefly describes the main package functions as well as the basic requirements to interface \emph{hydroPSO} with a given model code. An introductory application of \emph{hydroPSO} to optimise test functions commonly used to assess the performance of optimisation algorithms is described in Section~\ref{sec:application}. The procedure to interface \emph{hydroPSO} with SWAT-2005 and MF2005 as well as the corresponding calibration results, are reported in Sections~\ref{sec:swat2005} and~\ref{sec:mf2005}, respectively.
+
+\clearpage
+
+\section{Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO)\label{sec:pso}}
+\subsection{Canonical PSO Algorithm\label{sec:psoalg}}
+Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO) is a population-based search algorithm developed by \citet{kennedyeberhart1995} and \citet{eberhartkennedy1995}. A feature distinguishing PSO from evolutionary algorithms is the lack of genetic operators, instead each individual of the population, termed \textit{particles} in PSO terminology, adjusts its \textit{flying trajectory} around the multi-dimensional search-space according to its own flying experience (\textit{local search}) and the one of all particles in the swarm (\textit{global search}) \citep{eberhartshi1998}.
+
+Considering a $D$-dimensional search-space, \textit{position} and \textit{velocity} for the $i$-th particle are represented by $\vec{X}_i=x_{i1},x_{i2},\ldots,x_{iD}$ and $\vec{V}_i=v_{i1},v_{i2},\ldots,v_{iD}$, respectively. The performance of each particle is assessed through a problem-specific ``goodness-of-fit'' measure, which is the basis for calculating $\vec{X}_i$, thus, reflecting the quality of the particle's position. The best-known position of the $i$-th particle (known as \textit{personal best}) is represented by $\vec{P}_i=p_{i1},p_{i2},\ldots, p_{iD}$, whereas the best-known position for the whole swarm (known as \textit{local best}) is represented by $\vec{G}=g_{1},g_{2},\ldots, g_{D}$. Velocity and position of the $i$-th particle are updated according to the following equations,
+
+\begin{equation}\label{eq:update1}
+\vec{V}_{i}^{t+1} = \omega \vec{V}_{i}^t + c_1 \vec{U}_1^t \otimes (\vec{P}_{i}^t-\vec{X}_{i}^t) + c_2 \vec{U}_2^t \otimes (\vec{G}^t-\vec{X}_{i}^t)
+\end{equation}
+
+\noindent or \citep{clerckennedy2002},
+
+\begin{equation}\label{eq:update2}
+\vec{V}_{i}^{t+1} = \chi \left[ \vec{V}_{i}^t + c_1 \vec{U}_1^t \otimes (\vec{P}_{i}^t-\vec{X}_{i}^t) + c_2 \vec{U}_2^t \otimes (\vec{G}^t-\vec{X}_{i}^t)\right]
+\end{equation}
+
+\begin{equation}\label{eq:PositionUpdate}
+\vec{X}_{i}^{t+1} = \vec{X}_{i}^t + \vec{V}_{i}^{t+1}
+\end{equation}
+
+\noindent where $i=1,2,\ldots,N$, with $N$ equal to the swarm size, and $t=1,2,\ldots,T$, with $T$ equal to the maximum number of iterations. $\omega$ is defined as the \emph{inertia weight}, which was introduced in early PSO variants to avoid particles flying around their best-known position without converging to it. $c_1$ and $c_2$ are the \emph{cognitive} and \emph{social} acceleration coefficients, which control the influence of the \emph{personal} and the \emph{local best}. These two parameters influence the trade-off between the \emph{local exploitation} and the \emph{global exploration} search abilities of the algorithm \citep{shieberhart1998b}. $\vec{U}_1$ and $\vec{U}_2$ are independent and uniformly distributed $D$-dimensional random vectors in the range $[0,1]$ used to maintain the ``diversity'' of the population (note that $\otimes$ denotes element-wise vector multiplication). $\chi$ is the constriction factor defined by
+
+\begin{equation}\label{eq:clerccoeff}
+\chi = \frac{2\kappa}{|2-\varphi-\sqrt{\varphi^{2}-4\varphi}|}
+\end{equation}
+
+\noindent where $\kappa \in [0,1]$ and $\varphi = c_1 + c_2 > 4$, with typical values of $\kappa=1$, $c_1=c_2=2.05$ and $\varphi=4.1$. It should be noted that equations~\ref{eq:update1} and~\ref{eq:update2} are mathematically equivalent for appropriate values of the coefficients $\omega$, $c_1$, and $c_2$.
+
+The inclusion of the inertia weight $(\omega)$ or the constriction factor $(\chi)$ in equations~\ref{eq:update1} or~\ref{eq:update2} aims to prevent \emph{swarm explosion}, i.e. an uncontrolled increase of the magnitude of velocities (particle displacement) \citep{poli+al2007}. In addition to this, \citet{eberhartshi2000} suggest constraining particle velocity to within the range $[-\vec{V}^{max},\vec{V}^{max}]$ with $\vec{V}^{max}=\vec{X}^{max}$, and $\vec{X}^{max}$ as the limits of the search space. In case this constraint is violated, the $d$-dimensional component of the velocity for the $i$-th particle is set directly to the closest velocity bound as follows
+
+\begin{equation}\label{eq:PSOvmax}
+v_{id} = \left\{
+ \begin{array}{r l r l}
+ v^{max}_{d} & , v_{id} > & v^{max}_{d} & \\
+ -v^{max}_{d} & , v_{id} < & -v^{max}_{d} &
+ \end{array} \right.
+\end{equation}
+
+Equations~\ref{eq:update1} to~\ref{eq:PSOvmax} can be considered as the canonical PSO algorithm \citep[see][]{kennedy2006}, which is summarised as follows
+
+\begin{algorithm}[H]
+\caption{Canonical PSO algorithm.}
+ \begin{algorithmic}[1]
+ \FOR[for each particle in the swarm]{$i=1$ to $N$}
+ \STATE Initialize particles' positions $(\vec{X}_i)$ and velocities $(\vec{V}_i)$
+ \STATE Initialize personal best, $\vec{P}_i$, and local best, $\vec{G}$
+ \ENDFOR
+ \REPEAT
+ \FOR{$i=1$ to $N$}
+ \STATE Pick random vectors $\vec{U}_1$ and $\vec{U}_2$
+ \STATE Update particle's velocity using equations~\ref{eq:update1} or~\ref{eq:update2}
+ \STATE Update particle's position using equation~\ref{eq:PositionUpdate}
+ \IF[minimization of $f$]{$f(\vec{X}_i) < f(\vec{P}_i)$}
+ \STATE Update particle's best-known position $\vec{P}_i=\vec{X}_i$
+ \IF[minimization of $f$]{$f(\vec{P}_i) < f(\vec{G})$}
+ \STATE Update the neighbourhood's best-known position $\vec{G}=\vec{P}_i$
+ \ENDIF
+ \ENDIF
+ \ENDFOR
+ \UNTIL[nr. of iterations $(T)$ or tolerance error is met]
+ \end{algorithmic}
+\end{algorithm}
+
+\subsection{Topologies\label{ch:topologiesPSO}}
+Particles in the swarm interact by defining a common set of links. These links control the exchange of information, i.e. they inform each particle of the best-known position of neighbouring particles, and are defined as the \emph{swarm topology}. The set of particles ``informing'' the $i$-th particle at the $t$-th iteration is termed the particle's \emph{neighbourhood}, and includes the particle itself as a member \citep{clerc2007}.
+
+A vast number of swarm topologies has been investigated and reviewed in the literature \citep[see, e.g.,][]{kennedy1999, kennedymendes2002,kennedymendes2003,mendes2004,poli+al2007}. Two of the most common correspond to the so-called \emph{gbest} and \emph{lbest}. In the \emph{gbest} topology all particles are inter-connected and, thus, the best-known particle influences all the remaining particles in the swarm. This topology is generally recognised to have a fast convergence but is highly vulnerable to sub-optimal solutions and premature convergence \citep[see, e.g.,][]{mendes2004,clerc2006,poli+al2007}. In the \emph{lbest} topology, each particle is connected to two immediate neighbours and, thus, exchange of information with the best-known particle is restricted only to the particle's immediate neighbourhood. In general, the particle itself is included as a member of its neighbourhood \citep{mendes2004,clerc2006}. The \emph{lbest} topology shows the advantage of allowing parallel searches in different regions of the search-space \citep{poli+al2007}, which results in a more thorough search strategy. Accordingly, \emph{lbest} shows a slower convergence and less sensitivity to sub-optimal solutions compared to \emph{gbest}.
+
+\citet{kennedymendes2002} investigate generalisations of the \emph{lbest} topology. One of their main findings is the relative superiority of the \emph{von Neumann} structured neighbourhood, i.e. four neighbours. This topology is more densely connected than \emph{lbest} but less densely connected than \emph{gbest}, thus, it shows some parallelism with \emph{lbest} but benefits from a larger neighbourhood \citep{poli+al2007}.
+
+Finally, \citet{clerc2006} propose the so-called \emph{random} topology. In this topology, each particle informs $k$ particles (and itself) chosen randomly, with the parameter $k$ usually set to 3 \citep{clerc2012}. This results in each particle informing at least one (itself) and at most $k+1$ (including itself) particles, and being informed by any number of particles between 1 and $N$. The \emph{random} topology can be considered as a special case of the \emph{lbest} topology where particles have $k$ \emph{informants} most of the time and the ``connections'' between particles randomly change when the global optimum shows no improvement. The \emph{random} topology is used in the ``Standard PSO 2011'' algorithm, which has become the benchmark in recent years.
+
+\subsection{PSO Variants and Fine-Tuning Options\label{sec:PSOvariants}}
+Notwithstanding the inclusion of $V_{max}$ and $\omega$ aimed at overcoming premature convergence to sub-optimal solutions, improvements to the canonical PSO are still an active area of research \citep{poli+al2007}. To date, a vast collection of enhancements/variants has been suggested in the literature \citep[see, e.g.,][]{clerc2006,kennedy2006,vandenberghengelbrecht2006,zhao2006,poli+al2007,poli2008,chenchi2010}, resulting in a large group of algorithms, which we cannot fully review or implement into a single piece of software.
+
+This section describes the PSO variants and state-of-the-art enhancements implemented in the calibration engine of \emph{hydroPSO}, which are further summarised in Table~\ref{tab:table2}.
+
+\subsubsection{PSO Variants}
+In equations~\ref{eq:update1} and~\ref{eq:update2} only two effective sources of ``influence`` are considered for updating the particles' velocities, namely, the position of the particle's personal best, $\vec{P}$, and the position of the local best, $\vec{G}$. \citet{mendes+al2004} propose a PSO variant, which they refer to as Fully Informed Particle Swarm (FIPS), where information drawn from all the particles in the neighbourhood (i.e. not only the best one) contributes to adjusting the particle's velocity. FIPS is implemented as follows,
+
+\begin{equation}\label{eq:FIPS}
+\vec{V}_{i}^{t+1} = \chi \left[ \vec{V}_{i}^t + \frac{1}{K_{i}} \sum_{n=1}^{K_{i}} \vec{U}_1^t(0,\varphi) \otimes (\vec{P}_{nbr_{n}}^t-\vec{X}_{i}^t) \right]
+\end{equation}
+
+\noindent where $K_i$ is the number of neighbours for the $i$-th particle, and $\vec{P}_{nbr_{n}}$ is the position of the particle's $n$-th neighbour. Additionally, \citet{mendes+al2004} propose a second PSO variant, which they refer to as weighted FIPS (wFIPS). In wFIPS the contribution of each neighbour to the adjustment of a particle's velocity is weighted by the corresponding goodness-of-fit of its personal best. Performance of both FIPS and wFIPS is highly sensitive to the topology employed \citep{poli+al2007}, however, for topologies with few neighbours they outperform the canonical PSO algorithm \citep{mendes+al2004,kennedy2006}.
+
+A third PSO variant implemented in \emph{hydroPSO} corresponds to the Improved Particle Swarm Optimisation (IPSO) by \citet{zhao2006}. In IPSO the term representing the social influence (i.e., $\vec{G}^t-\vec{X}_{i}^t$, in equations~\ref{eq:update1} or~\ref{eq:update2}) is enhanced by using information drawn from a subset containing the $n_{gb}$ best performing particles in the neighbourhood. According to \citet{zhao2006} this variant follows the analogy where a group of leaders, i.e. the best performing particles for an iteration, could influence positively better decisions for society (swarm) compared to a case when a single leader is followed. IPSO is implemented as follows
+
+\begin{equation}\label{eq:IPSO}
+\vec{V}_{i}^{t+1} = \omega\vec{V}_{i}^t + c_1 \vec{U}_1^t \otimes (\vec{P}_{i}^t-\vec{X}_{i}^t) + \sum_{j=1}^{n_{gb}} c_{2,j} \vec{U}_{2,j}^t \otimes (\vec{G}_{j}^t-\vec{X}_{i}^t)
+\end{equation}
+
+\noindent where coefficient $c_{2,j}$ is defined by
+
+\begin{equation}
+c_{2,j}=c_2 \hat{g}_{j}
+\end{equation}
+
+\noindent where $\hat{g}_{j}$ is a weighting factor based on the values of the goodness-of-fit for the $n_{gb}$ particles.
+
+\subsubsection{Fine-Tuning Options\label{ch:finetuneoptions}}
+In this section several options used to tailor the calibration engine to specific user needs are described. We should note here that the effectiveness of these options has generally been tested against the ``canonical'' PSO algorithm.
+
+\begin{enumerate}
+\item PSO Parameters \\
+The PSO algorithm includes a few parameters that have to be carefully selected in order to avoid swarm explosion and to ensure proper convergence of the algorithm. These parameters include: a) inertia weight $(\omega)$, b) Clerc's constriction factor $(\chi)$, c) the cognitive coefficient $(c_1)$, and d) the social coefficient $(c_2)$.
+
+Several definitions for the \emph{inertia weight} ($\omega$) have been extensively investigated and, hence, will not be further developed here. \citet{shieberhart1998b} initially propose a linearly decreasing variation for $\omega$. This strategy forces an extensive exploration of the search-space at initial iterations, which gradually shifts to a more dissipative (``exploitative'') search at later iterations \citep{poli+al2007}. Alternative $\omega$ definitions implemented in \emph{hydroPSO} include: a) linear \citep{shieberhart1998b}, b) non-linear \citep{chatterjeesiarry2006}, c) adaptive factor \citep{liu+al2005}, d) global-local best ratio \citep{arumugamrao2008}, and e) fully random \citep{eberhartshi2001}. These alternative definitions for $\omega$ allow the modeller to fine-tune the ``exploitation/exploration'' properties of the algorithm for different calibration problems.
+
+Depending on the nature of the optimisation/calibration problem, the definition of the acceleration coefficients $c_1$ and $c_2$ may have a drastic impact on the algorithm's performance. \citet{ratnaweera+al2004} suggest that time-varying acceleration coefficients (TVAC) may reduce premature convergence at the first stages of the search and improve convergence at later iterations. For example, a large value of $c_1$ and a small value of $c_2$ at initial iterations allow the particles to ``fly'' around the search-space instead of moving towards their personal best. For later iterations, in turn, a small value of $c_1$ and a large value of $c_2$ allow the particles to converge to the global attraction zone. Based on this, linear, non-linear, and global-local best ratio (only for $c_1$) TVAC are implemented in \emph{hydroPSO} to fine-tune the coefficients $c_1$ and $c_2$.
+
+\item Boundary Conditions \\
+In many optimisation/calibration problems it is a good practice to confine particle position to physically meaningful parameter ranges. In \emph{hydroPSO} this is done by using a $D$-dimensional vector defining the range of the search-space $(\Psi=\{(\psi_{1}^{min},\psi_{1}^{max}),(\psi_{2}^{min},\psi_{2}^{max}),\ldots,(\psi_{D}^{min},\psi_{D}^{max})\})$. The behaviour of the particles at these boundaries may influence the exploration of the search-space \citep{robinsonrahmatsamii2004}. Generally, four types of boundary condition may be imposed on a particle reaching the boundary of the search-space: a) \emph{absorbing}, where the particle's position is set to the boundary value and the velocity is set to zero; b) \emph{invisible}, where the particle is allowed to ``fly'' beyond the boundaries without limiting either its position or velocity, but its goodness-of-fit is not evaluated, c) \emph{reflecting}, where the sign of the velocity in the overshot dimension is changed and the particle is reflected back to the search-space; and d) \emph{damping}, where part (1-$f$) of the velocity is absorbed by the boundary and part ($f$) is reflected back, with $f$ as a random damping factor in [0,1] \citep[see][]{robinsonrahmatsamii2004,huangmohan2005}.
+
+\item Regrouping Strategy \\
+In the case of premature convergence (i.e. when the proposed solution approximates a local rather than a global optimum) or to validate the global attraction zone at final iterations, a suitable mechanism allowing particles to escape from sub-optimal solutions is required. \citet{eversghalia2009} propose a strategy that avoids stagnation of particles by automatically triggering swarm regrouping (see Table~\ref{tab:table2} for details). At each iteration the \emph{swarm radius} ($\delta^t$) is computed as the maximum Euclidean distance between the position of the swarm optimum ($\vec{G}$) and any given particle ($\vec{X}_i$). Then, regrouping is triggered when the \emph{normalized swarm radius} ($\delta^t_{norm}$) is less than a user-defined \emph{stagnation threshold} ($\epsilon$). The swarm is regrouped around the swarm optimum by using an updated range ($range_{d}(\Psi^{r})$ where $r$ is the \emph{swarm regrouping index}) calculated as the minimum between (i) the original range of the search-space on dimension $d$, and (ii) the product of the \emph{regrouping factor} ($\rho$) with the maximum distance along dimension $d$ between any particle and the swarm optimum. This regrouping method defines a reduced search-space ($\Psi^{r}$), which is small enough for an efficient search and large enough to allow particles to escape from sub-optimal solutions.
+
+\item Other Options \\
+In \emph{hydroPSO} sampling of initial particle position $(\vec{X}_{ini})$ and velocity $(\vec{V}_{ini})$ might be improved by including a Latin Hypercube sampling \citep{mckay1979} over the full $D$-dimensional search-space in order to ensure a fair initialisation of the $D$ exploration.
+
+To enhance a faster propagation of the best solutions found throughout the swarm, \citet{mussi+al2009} discuss two strategies for updating the particle and local best position. In the \emph{synchronous} strategy the local best is updated only after computing and updating the position and personal best of all particles in the swarm. In the \emph{asynchronous} strategy, the local best is updated immediately after each particle's position is updated.
+
+For later stage iterations, oscillation of the particles around the local best may be restricted by using a time-varying $\vec{V}_{max}$. This reduces the search-space for latter stage iterations and, thus, complements the effect of ($\omega$). This is suggested by the authors of \emph{hydroPSO} following \citet{chatterjeesiarry2006}.
+
+Finally, \emph{hydroPSO} offers parallel capabilities to speed up the optimization process, which are easily configured.
+\end{enumerate}
+
+\subsection{Standard PSO 2011 (SPSO 2011)\label{ch:}}
+In a series of technical reports \citep[see][]{clerc2007,clerc2009,clerc2012}, a clear need to define a ``Standard PSO algorithm'' has been identified. This stems mainly from the need to establish a common benchmark to assess the performance of the numerous PSO improvements proposed in the literature. To date, three versions of the standard PSO algorithm exist: SPSO 2006, SPSO 2007, and SPSO 2011 \citep{clerc2012}. We should point out that SPSO 2011 has in fact been designed as a benchmark for algorithm performance and is not intended to be the best available PSO algorithm in the literature \citep{clerc2012}.
+
+The most recent benchmark proposed, SPSO 2011, starts by defining a centre of gravity ($Gr$) around the current $(\vec{X}_{i}^t)$, previous best $(\vec{p}_{i}^{\,t})$, and local best positions $(\vec{l}_{i}^{\,t})$ as follows,
+
+\begin{subequations}
+ \begin{align}
+ \vec{p}_{i}^{\,t} &= \vec{X}_{i}^t + c_1 \vec{U}_1^t \otimes (\vec{P}_{i}^t-\vec{X}_{i}^t) \label{eq:pprima} \\
+ \vec{l}_{i}^{\,t} &= \vec{X}_{i}^t + c_2 \vec{U}_2^t \otimes (\vec{G}^t-\vec{X}_{i}^t) \label{eq:lprima} \\
+ \vec{Gr}_{i}^{t} &= \frac{(\vec{X}_{i}^t + \vec{p}_{i}^{\,t} + \vec{l}_{i}^{\,t})}{3} \label{eq:gravity}
+ \end{align}
+\end{subequations}
+
+\noindent then, a random point is defined in the hypersphere $\mathcal{H}(\vec{Gr}_{i}^{t},||\vec{Gr}_{i}^{t}-\vec{X}_{i}^t||)$, and velocity is updated as follows,
+
+\begin{equation}
+ \vec{V}_{i}^{t+1} = \omega \vec{V}_{i}^t + r \mathcal{H}(\vec{Gr}_{i}^{t},||\vec{Gr}_{i}^{t}-\vec{X}_{i}^t||) - \vec{X}_{i}^t
+\end{equation}
+
+\noindent where $r$ is a random number in $[0,1]$. The particle's position is updated following equation~\eqref{eq:PositionUpdate}.
+
+Despite the fact that SPSO 2011 is an improvement to the previous SPSO 2007 in terms of accounting for rotational invariance, SPSO 2007 could perform better than SPSO 2011 for separable and (least likely) for non-separable functions (Maurice Clerc, developer SPSO 2007 \& 2011, personal communication, 2012). This is the main reason for including both SPSO 2007 \& SPSO 2011 in the \emph{hydroPSO} R package.
+
+\singlespacing
+%%%%%% TABLE2
+\begin{table}[!ht]
+ \caption{Main features for customising the \emph{hydroPSO} calibration engine.}
+ \label{tab:table2}
+ \centering
+ \resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{
+ \begin{threeparttable}
+ \begin{tabular}{llll}
+\toprule
+Feature & \emph{hydroPSO} argument & Description & References \\
+\midrule
+1. Definition of & \Verb+use.IW=TRUE+ & 1.1. Linear variation & \\
+ inertia weight $\omega$ & \Verb+IW.type="linear"+ & $\omega_{iter}=\left[\frac{iter_{max}-iter}{iter_{max}}\right] \left(\omega_{ini}-\omega_{fin}\right)+\omega_{fin}$~\tnote[a] & \citet{shieberhart1998b} \\
+ & & 1.2. Non-linear variation & \\
+ & \Verb+IW.type="non-linear"+ & $\omega_{iter}=\left[ \frac{iter_{max}-iter}{iter_{max}}\right]^n \left(\omega_{ini}-\omega_{fin}\right)+\omega_{fin}$~\tnote[a] & \citet{chatterjeesiarry2006}\\
+ & & 1.3. Adaptive Inertia Weight Factor (AIWF) & \\
+ & \Verb+IW.type="aiwf"+ & $\omega_{iter}=\left\{
+ \begin{array}{l l}
+ \left[ \frac{(\omega_{max}-\omega_{min})(f-f_{min})}{f_{avg}-f_{min}} \right] + \omega_{min} & , f \leq f_{avg} \\
+ \omega_{max} & , f > f_{avg} \\
+ \end{array} \right.$~\tnote[b] & \citet{liu+al2005} \\
+ & & 1.4. Global-Local best ratio inertia weight & \\
+ & \Verb+IW.type="GLratio"+ & $\omega_{iter}=1.1+\frac{G_d^t}{\overline{P_{id}^t}}$~\tnote[c] & \citet{arumugamrao2008} \\
+ & & 1.5. Random inertia weight & \\
+ & \Verb+IW.type="runif"+ & $\omega_{iter}=0.5+\frac{rnd(\omega_{ini},\omega_{fin})}{2}$~\tnote[d] & \citet{eberhartshi2001} \\
+ & & & \\
+2. Time-varying & \Verb+use.TVc1=TRUE+ & 2.1. Linear variation & \\
+ acceleration coefficients & \Verb+TVc1.type="linear"+ & $c1_{iter}=\left[ \frac{iter}{iter_{max}} (c1_{fin}-c1_{ini}) \right]+c1_{ini}$~\tnote[e] & \citet{ratnaweera+al2004} \\
+ & & 2.2. Non-linear variation & \\
+ & \Verb+TVc1.type="non-linear"+ & $c1_{iter}=\left[ \frac{iter}{iter_{max}} (c1_{fin}-c1_{ini}) \right]^n+c1_{ini}$~\tnote[e] & \emph{hydroPSO} \\
+ & & 2.3. Global-Local best ratio & \\
+ & \Verb+TVc1.type="GLratio"+ & $c1_{iter}=1.1+\frac{G_d^t}{\overline{P_{id}^t}}$ & \citet{arumugamrao2008} \\
+ & & 2.4. Linear variation & \\
+ & \Verb+TVc2.type="linear"+ & $c2_{iter}=\left[ \frac{iter}{iter_{max}} (c2_{fin}-c2_{ini}) \right]+c2_{ini}$~\tnote[e] & \citet{ratnaweera+al2004} \\
+ & & 2.5. Non-linear variation & \\
+ & \Verb+TVc2.type="non-linear"+ & $c2_{iter}=\left[ \frac{iter}{iter_{max}} (c2_{fin}-c2_{ini}) \right]+c2_{ini}$~\tnote[e] & \citet{ratnaweera+al2004} \\
+ & & & \\
+3. Boundary conditions & \Verb+boundary.wall="absorbing"+ & 3.1. Absorbing & \citet{robinsonrahmatsamii2004} \\
+ definition & \Verb+boundary.wall="invisible"+ & 3.2. Invisible & \citet{robinsonrahmatsamii2004} \\
+ & \Verb+boundary.wall="reflecting"+ & 3.3. Reflecting & \citet{robinsonrahmatsamii2004} \\
+ & \Verb+boundary.wall="damping"+ & 3.4. Damping & \citet{huangmohan2005} \\
+ & & & \\
+4. Regrouping & \Verb+use.RG=TRUE+ & 4.1. $swarm~radius=\delta^t=max \Arrowvert \overrightarrow{X}_{i}^t-\overrightarrow{G}^t\Arrowvert$~\tnote[f] & \citet{eversghalia2009} \\
+ & \Verb+RG.thr=+$\epsilon$ & $normalized~swarm~radius=\delta^t_{norm}=\frac{\delta^t}{diam(\Psi)}<\epsilon$ & \\
+ & & $diam(\Psi)=\Arrowvert range_d(\Psi) \Arrowvert$ & \\
+ & & $range_d(\Psi)=X_{d}^U-X_{d}^L$ & \\
+ & \Verb+RG.r=+$\rho$ & $range_d(\Psi^r)=min \left\lbrace range_d(\Psi^0),\rho~max|X_{id}^{r-1}-G_d^{r-1}|\right\rbrace$ &\\
+ & \Verb+RG.miniter=+$r$ & $\overrightarrow{X}_i=G^{r-1}+\left[\overrightarrow{r_3} \cdot range_i(\Psi^r)-\frac{1}{2} range_i(\Psi^r)\right] $ &\\
+ & & $V_{d}^{max}=\lambda range_d(\Psi^r)$ & \\
+ & & & \\
+5. Definition of $X_{ini}$ & \Verb+Xini.type="random"+ & 5.1. Random & \emph{hydroPSO} \\
+ & \Verb+Xini.type="lhs"+ & 5.2. Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) & \emph{hydroPSO} \\
+ & & & \\
+6. Definition of $V_{ini}$ & \Verb+Vini.type="random2007"+ & 6.1. Random following SPSO 2007 & \citet{clerc2012} \\
+ & \Verb+Vini.type="lhs2007"+ & 6.2. LHS following SPSO 2007 & \citet{clerc2012} \\
+ & \Verb+Vini.type="zero"+ & 6.3. Zero velocity & \emph{hydroPSO} \\
+ & \Verb+Vini.type="random2011"+ & 6.4. Random following SPSO 2011 & \citet{clerc2012}\\
+ & \Verb+Vini.type="lhs2011"+ & 6.5. LHS following SPSO 2011 & \citet{clerc2012}\\
+ & & & \\
+7. Update of positions & \Verb+best.update="sync"+ & 7.1. Synchronous & \citet{mussi+al2009}\\
+ and velocities & \Verb+best.update="async"+ & 7.2. Asynchronous & \citet{mussi+al2009}\\
+ & & & \\
+8. Time-varying & \Verb+use.TVlambda=TRUE+ & $\vec{V}_{max}^{iter}= \lambda^{iter}\vec{X}_{max}$ & \\
+ maximum velocity & & 8.1. Linear variation & \\
+ & \Verb+TVlambda.type="linear"+ & $\lambda^{iter}=\left[ \frac{iter}{iter_{max}} (\lambda^{fin}-\lambda^{ini}) \right]+\lambda^{ini}$~\tnote[g] & \citet{chatterjeesiarry2006} \\
+ & & 8.2. Non-linear variation & \\
+ & \Verb+TVlambda.type="non-linear"+ & $\lambda^{iter}=\left[ \frac{iter}{iter_{max}} (\lambda^{fin}-\lambda^{ini}) \right]^n+\lambda^{ini}$~\tnote[g] & \emph{hydroPSO} \\
+ & & & \\
+9. Topologies & \Verb+topology="gbest"+ & 9.1. \emph{gbest} & \citet{kennedymendes2002} \\
+ & \Verb+topology="lbest"+ & 9.2. \emph{lbest} & \citet{kennedymendes2002} \\
+ & \Verb+topology="vonNeumann"+ & 9.3. von Neumann ($k=4$) & \citet{kennedymendes2002} \\
+ & \Verb+topology="random"+ & 9.4. Random ($k=3$) & \citet{clerc2012} \\
+ & & & \\
+10. PSO Variants & \Verb+method="pso"+ & 10.1. Canonical PSO & \citet{clerc2007} \\
+ & \Verb+method="fips"+ & 10.2. Fully Informed Particle Swarm & \citet{mendes+al2004} \\
+ & \Verb+method="wfips"+ & 10.3. Weighted FIPS & \citet{mendes+al2004} \\
+ & \Verb+method="ipso"+ & 10.4. Improved PSO (IPSO) & \citet{zhao2006} \\
+ & \Verb+method="spso2007"+ & 10.5. Standard PSO 2007 & \citet{clerc2012} \\
+ & \Verb+method="spso2011"+ & 10.6. Standard PSO 2011 & \citet{clerc2012} \\
+ & & & \\
+11. Normalisation & \Verb+method="normalise"+ & 11.1. Standard PSO 2011 & \citet{clerc2012} \\
+ & & & \\
+12. Parallelisation & & & \\
+\bottomrule
+ \end{tabular}
+ \begin{tablenotes}
+ \item[a] $\omega_{iter}$ is the current inertia weight, $\omega_{ini}$ and $\omega_{fin}$ are the initial and final inertia weights, and $n$ is the non-linear modulation index.
+ \item[b] $f$ is the current objective value of the particle, $f_{avg}$ is the average objective value for all the particles, $f_{min}$ is the minimum objective value of all the particles, $\omega_{max}$ and $\omega_{min}$ are user-defined maximum and minimum values for $\omega$.
+ \item[c] It sets a minimisation problem where $G_d^t$ and $\overline{P_{id}^t}$ are the local best and the average of all personal bests during iteration $t$, respectively.
+ \item[d] $rnd()$ is a random number in [$\omega_{ini},\omega_{fin}$].
+ \item[e] $c1_{ini}$, $c1_{fin}$, $c2_{ini}$, $c2_{fin}$ are constants.
+ \item[f] $\overrightarrow{X}_{i}^{t}$ are particles' positions, $\overrightarrow{G}^{t}$ is local best location, $\epsilon$ is the stagnation threshold, $diam(\Psi)$ is the diameter of the search-space, $range_d(\Psi)$ is the length of the search-space along dimension $d$, $X_{d}^{U}$ and $X_{d}^{L}$ are the upper and lower bounds of the search-space, $\Psi^{r}$ is the regrouped search-space, $r$ is the $swarm~regrouping~index$, $\Psi^{0}$ is the original search-space, $\rho$ is the regrouping factor, $\overrightarrow{r_3}$ is a uniform random vector, and $\lambda$ is a percentage to limit $\vec{V}_{max}$.
+ \item[g] $\lambda^{iter}$ is a percentage to limit $\vec{V}_{max}$, and $\lambda^{ini}$ and $\lambda^{fin}$ are the percentage to limit $\vec{V}_{max}$ at the start and end of a given run, respectively.
+ \end{tablenotes}
+ \end{threeparttable}
+}
+\end{table}
+%%% END TABLE2
+
+\clearpage
+
+\section{Description of the hydroPSO Package\label{sec:package}}
+\emph{hydroPSO} is a multi-platform and model-independent R package that has been designed to allow the user to perform sensitivity analysis, model calibration, and assessment of the results. Sensitivity analysis is performed by using the LH-OAT method \citep{vangriensven+al2006}. Sensitive parameters are then calibrated by tailoring the calibration engine to specific user needs through the use of the numerous PSO variants and fine-tuning options described in Section~\ref{sec:PSOvariants}. Finally, advanced plotting functionalities together with detailed information regarding the evolution of the algorithm's performance facilitate the interpretation and assessment of the calibration results.
+
+\subsection{Main hydroPSO Functions\label{ch:mainfunctions}}
+The interaction among the main functions comprising the \emph{hydroPSO} package is shown in Figure~\ref{fig:f01bvign}. These functions have been specifically developed for \emph{hydroPSO} and are summarised in Table~\ref{tab:table3} and further described below.
+
+\begin{figure}[!h]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./figures/f01bvign.pdf}
+ \caption{Flowchart describing the interaction of the main hydroPSO functions. User-defined files \texttt{ParamRanges.txt} and \texttt{ParamFiles.txt} provide information on the parameters to be calibrated, whereas \texttt{out.FUN()}, \texttt{gof.FUN()}, and observations are used to assess the quality of the particles' positions through a goodness-of-fit measure. Light-blue shaded boxes require user intervention \citep[After][]{hydroPSO2012}.}
+ \label{fig:f01bvign}
+\end{figure}
+
+%%%%%%% TABLE3
+\begin{table}[!h]
+ \caption{Main functions included in the \emph{hydroPSO} R package.}
+ \label{tab:table3}
+ \centering
+ \resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{
+\begin{tabular}{l p{14cm}}
+\toprule
+Function & Short Description \\
+\midrule
+\Verb+lhoat()+ & Sensitivity analysis using LH-OAT \citep{vangriensven+al2006} \\
+\Verb+hydromod()+ & Control of the model code to be calibrated \\
+\Verb+hydroPSO()+ & Multi-platform and model-independent enhanced PSO calibration engine \\
+\Verb+read\_results()+ & Reading of results produced by \emph{hydroPSO}. It is a wrapper to: \\
+\hspace{0.5cm}\indent \Verb+read\_particles()+ & Reading \emph{``Particles.txt''} output file \\
+\hspace{0.5cm}\indent \Verb+read\_velocities()+ & Reading \emph{``Velocities.txt''} output file \\
+\hspace{0.5cm}\indent \Verb+read\_out()+ & Reading \emph{``of\_out.txt''} output file \\
+\hspace{0.5cm}\indent \Verb+read\_convergence()+ & Reading \emph{``ConvergenceMeasures.txt''} output file \\
+\hspace{0.5cm}\indent \Verb+read\_GofPerParticle()+ & Reading \emph{``Particles\_GofPerIter.txt''} output file \\
+\Verb+plot\_results()+ & Plotting of results produced by \emph{hydroPSO}. It is a wrapper to: \\
+\hspace{0.5cm}\indent \Verb+plot\_particles()+ & Plotting parameters \\
+\hspace{0.5cm}\indent \Verb+plot\_velocities()+ & Plotting the evolution of particles' velocities \\
+\hspace{0.5cm}\indent \Verb+plot\_out()+ & Plotting model outputs (simulated equivalents) \\
+\hspace{0.5cm}\indent \Verb+plot\_convergence()+ & Plotting the evolution of the global optimum and $\delta^t_{norm}$\\
+\hspace{0.5cm}\indent \Verb+plot\_GofPerParticle()+ & Plotting the evolution of the goodness-of-fit per particle \\
+\Verb+verification()+ & Run the model code with one or more parameter sets specified by the user \\
+\Verb+PEST2hydroPSO+ & Convert PEST files into input files for a \emph{hydroPSO} optimisation \\
+\Verb+hydroPSO2PEST+ & Convert \emph{hydroPSO} files into input files for a PEST optimisation \\
+\Verb+test\_functions()+ & Implementation of a set of $n$-dimensional test functions for benchmarking \\
+\bottomrule
+\end{tabular}
+}
+\end{table}
+%%% END TABLE3
+
+\begin{enumerate}
+\item The \Verb+lhoat()+ function implements the Latin Hypercube One-factor-At-a-Time (LH-OAT) sensitivity analysis technique \citep{vangriensven+al2006}. \Verb+lhoat()+ produces a ranking with the parameter having the largest effect receiving a rank of 1 and the one(s) with the smallest effect receiving a rank equal to the total number of parameters ($D$). LH-OAT works by taking $M$ LH sampling points ($M$ strata for each parameter) and then varying, by a fraction $s$, each LH sampling point $D$ times, where $D$ is the number of parameters. For each LH sampling point a partial impact for each parameter is calculated and then a final impact (on model performance/predictions) is obtained by averaging these partial impacts. The method is very efficient requiring a total of only $M(D+1)$ runs.
+
+\item The \Verb+hydromod()+ function is one of the key components of \emph{hydroPSO}. It has a unique role consisting of linking and controlling the execution of a user-defined model code with \emph{hydroPSO}. \Verb+hydromod()+ first reads a set of parameter values, which are then written into the corresponding model input file(s) by using the information provided in the user-defined \emph{ParamFiles.txt} file. \emph{ParamFiles.txt} defines the name of the model parameters, input files, and specific location of the parameters in the input files. Unlike tools such as PEST \citep{pest2010}, UCODE-2005 \citep{poeter2005}, OSTRICH \citep{ostrich2005} or MADS \citep{mads2012}, this is done in one file only with no need for creating numerous \emph{template} files replicating model input files. Then, \Verb+hydromod()+ executes the model code to obtain the corresponding model outputs, which are read through the \Verb+out.FUN()+ R function. Finally, simulated equivalents are assessed against user-provided observations of system state variables through a \Verb+gof.FUN()+ R function. \Verb+hydromod()+ returns the simulated equivalents and the corresponding goodness-of-fit values.
+
+\item The main calibration engine is implemented in the \Verb+hydroPSO()+ function. This function is another key component of \emph{hydroPSO} that includes state-of-the-art PSO variants and numerous fine-tuning options to customize the calibration engine to specific user needs (see Table~\ref{tab:table2}). At the first iteration, parameters are sampled from a feasible range obtained from the user-defined \emph{ParamRanges.txt} file. Then, \Verb+hydromod()+ is called to obtain a goodness-of-fit measure for each particle in the swarm. Particle velocity and position evolve according to the user-defined PSO configuration until some termination criteria are met (e.g. maximum number of iterations (\Verb+maxiter+), or relative changes in the personal best (\Verb+reltol+) or global best (\Verb+abstol+) are less than a user-defined threshold). \Verb+hydroPSO()+ returns the optimum parameter set, all sampled parameters and their corresponding goodness-of-fit, model outputs, particle velocity, and convergence measures.
+
+\item Results from the \Verb+hydroPSO()+ function are post-processed using the \Verb+plot_results()+ function, which delivers a series of user-friendly and customized plots to facilitate the assessment of the model calibration. These plots include: parameter scatter plots, histograms and empirical CDFs, (pseudo) 3D scatter plots, parameters and velocities for each iteration, goodness-of-fit value for each particle per iteration, and the evolution of the convergence measures.
+
+\item The \Verb+verification()+ function is designed to validate (one or more) user-defined parameter sets. It returns a goodness-of-fit measure for each parameter set defined, the best parameter set, and the goodness-of-fit measure corresponding to the best parameter set.
+
+\item Function \Verb+PEST2hydroPSO+ translates the files generated to run a PEST model calibration (i.e. *.tpl, *.pst, and *.ins) into the basic files to set up a \emph{hydroPSO} optimization (i.e. \Verb+ParamFiles.txt+, \Verb+ParamRanges.txt+ and \Verb+hydroPSO-script.R+).
+
+\item Function \Verb+hydroPSO2PEST+ translates the \emph{hydroPSO} files into the basic files for performing a PEST local-calibration. This function is particularly useful for obtaining detailed information on sensitivity and uncertainty of parameters once a global optimisation has been performed using \emph{hydroPSO}. In particular, this function would allow linking \emph{hydroPSO} with tools using PEST-based templates, such as, OSTRICH, UCODE-2005, and squads/MADS.
+
+\item The \emph{hydroPSO} package includes a series of n-dimensional functions commonly used as benchmarks to assess the performance of optimisation algorithms. These functions are described in the \Verb+test_functions()+ function.
+\end{enumerate}
+
+\subsection{\texttt{ParamFiles.txt} and \texttt{ParamRanges.txt}}
+The interface of \emph{hydroPSO} with a model code uses two simple ASCII files, namely, \Verb+ParamFiles.txt+ and \Verb+ParamRanges.txt+, which should suffice for basic applications. For more advanced applications and in addition to the definition of the previous ASCII files, \emph{hydroPSO} may require the definition of basic R wrapper functions reading model inputs and outputs, and computing the model's performance if required. In sections~\ref{sec:interfacingswat2005} and~\ref{sec:wrappers} we provide examples of both cases.
+
+\Verb+ParamFiles.txt+ file defines the exact location of the parameters to be calibrated in the model input files. The format of \Verb+ParamFiles.txt+ is as follows,
+
+\begin{Verbatim}[frame=single,label=ParamFiles.txt,fontsize=\scriptsize]
+ParameterNmbr ParameterName Filename Row.Number Col.Start Col.End DecimalPlaces
+1 par1 file1 x1 y1 z1 w1
+2 par2 file1 x2 y2 z2 w2
+3 par3 file2 x3 y3 z3 w3
+4 par4 file3 x4 y4 z4 w4
+1 par1 file4 x5 y5 z5 w5
+1 par1 file5 x5 y5 z5 w5
+. . . . . . .
+. . . . . . .
+. . . . . . .
+n parn filem xn yn zn wn
+\end{Verbatim}
+
+\noindent where \Verb+ParameterNmbr+ is a consecutive number assigned to each parameter, \Verb+ParameterName+ is a user-defined parameter name, \Verb+Filename+ is the name of the model input file where the corresponding \Verb+ParameterName+ is located, \Verb+Row.Number+ is the row number in the \Verb+Filename+ file where \Verb+ParameterName+ can be found, \Verb+Col.Start+ and \Verb+Col.End+ define the column numbers in the \Verb+Filename+ file where \Verb+ParameterName+ can be found, and \Verb+DecimalPlaces+ defines the decimal places for the corresponding \Verb+ParameterName+ value. Please note that the same file (\Verb+file1+) can include more than one parameter (\Verb+par1+ and \Verb+par2+) located in different places in the file, and also that the same parameter (\Verb+par1+) can appear in different input files (\Verb+file1+, \Verb+file4+, \Verb+file5+). In addition, it is very important to define \Verb+Col.Start+ and \Verb+Col.End+ in such a way that the parameter value AND its decimal places fit the width defined as \Verb+Col.Start+ - \Verb+Col.End+ + 1. For users familiar with PEST \citep{pest2010} \Verb+Col.Start+ and \Verb+Col.End+ are equivalent to the token used to define \emph{where} to write parameters during the optimisation.
+
+\Verb+ParamRanges.txt+ file defines the feasible range for each of the parameters to be calibrated. The format of \Verb+ParamRanges.txt+ is as follows,
+
+\begin{Verbatim}[frame=single,label=ParamRanges-Sens.txt,fontsize=\scriptsize]
+ParameterNmbr ParameterName MinValue MaxValue
+1 par1 min1 max1
+2 par2 min2 max2
+3 par3 min3 max3
+4 par4 min4 max4
+5 par5 min5 max5
+. . . .
+. . . .
+. . . .
+n parn minn maxn
+\end{Verbatim}
+
+\noindent where \Verb+MinValue+ and \Verb+MaxValue+ are the minimum and maximum parameter values, respectively. Note that care must be taken in numbering and naming the parameters to be calibrated as they require to be consistent in both files.
+
+\clearpage
+
+\section{Step-by-Step \emph{hydroPSO} Application\label{sec:application}}
+\subsection{Setting Up the Environment\label{sec:setenv}}
+
+\begin{enumerate}
+
+\item Use next commands to retrieve current working directory, set a new working directory, and printing files included in the current directory, respectively.
+<<eval=FALSE>>=
+getwd()
+setwd("~/tmp")
+list.files(".")
+@
+
+\item Installing \emph{hydroPSO}.
+<<eval=FALSE>>=
+install.packages("hydroPSO")
+@
+
+\item Loading the \emph{hydroPSO} library containing data and functions used in this analysis.
+<<>>=
+library(hydroPSO)
+@
+
+\end{enumerate}
+
+\subsection{Basic \emph{hydroPSO} Application\label{sec:basicapp}}
+This section illustrates the implementation of the \emph{hydroPSO} package to optimise two (highly) multi-modal and multi-dimensional test functions with a considerable number of local sub-optimal solutions. These functions are commonly used as benchmarking for the performance of optimisation algorithms. Otherwise stated, the optimal solution for these functions should be zero.
+
+In this section we do not aim at finding an ``optimum'' configuration for the \emph{hydroPSO} parameters, which in itself can be a massive task. Instead, we illustrate a few controlling options to handle problems such as premature convergence for (highly) multi-modal objective functions. We refer the reader to \citet{hydroPSO2012} for the results of a validation of \emph{hydroPSO} against the Standard PSO 2007 \citep{clerc2012}.
+
+\subsubsection{Optimisation of Rastrigin Function}
+\begin{enumerate}
+\item The generalized \textbf{Rastrigin} test function (Equation~\ref{eq:rastrigin}) is non-convex, multimodal and additively separable. It has several local optima arranged in a regular lattice, but it only has one global optimum located at the point \texttt{o=(0,...,0)}. The search range for the Rastrigin function is [-5.12, 5.12] in each variable. This function is a fairly difficult problem due to its large search space and its large number of local minima. Algorithms based on gradient steepest descent will be most likely trapped in a local optima.
+
+\begin{equation}\label{eq:rastrigin}
+\begin{split}
+f(x)&= 10n+\sum_{i=1}^{n}\left[x_{i}^{2}-10\cos(2\pi x_{i})\right] \ ; \ -5.12 \leq x_i \leq 5.12 \ ; \ i=1,2,\ldots,n
+\end{split}
+\end{equation}
+
+For optimising the Rastrigin function we need to define the upper and lower limits of the search space [-5.12;5.12] and its dimensionality (D=5). Default values are used for the PSO engine (SPSO2011 method, 40 particles, 1000 maxit):
+<<>>=
+D <- 5
+lower <- rep(-5.12,D)
+upper <- rep(5.12,D)
+set.seed(100)
+hydroPSO(fn=rastrigin, lower=lower, upper=upper,
+ control=list(write2disk=FALSE) )
+@
+
+In the previous example, the algorithm finished before reaching the maximum number of iterations (\Verb+maxit=1000+) because the relative tolerance was reached (by default, \Verb+reltol=1E-8+).
+
+\item Using less particles (i.e. less number of model runs) to get a global optimum similar to the previous one, using a lower relative tolerance (\Verb+reltol=1E-9+)
+<<eval=TRUE>>=
+set.seed(1111)
+hydroPSO(fn=rastrigin,lower=lower,upper=upper,
+ control=list(npart=20, reltol=1E-9) )
+@
+
+\item Plotting the results:
+<<eval=TRUE>>=
+plot_results(do.png=TRUE, do.pairs=TRUE)
+@
+
+Here we report results directly to the R graphical device. Using the option \Verb+do.png=TRUE+ the graphical output is directed to \Verb+png+ files stored in \Verb+./PSO.out/pngs/+. Setting \Verb+do.pairs=TRUE+ we allow the creation of a matrix plot summarizing the interaction among parameters (cross-correlation, histograms, and statistical significance of the correlation). Results produced are shown in Figures~\ref{fig:convmeas}-\ref{fig:velsperrun}.
+
+Figure~\ref{fig:convmeas}, shows the evolution of the global optimum and the Normalized Swarm Radius (NSR). The latter indicates the convergence of the swarm to the (optimum) attraction zone. Assessment of both Global Optimum and NSR is particularly useful when the regrouping strategy used to tackle premature convergence is activated (\Verb+use.RG=TRUE+).
+
+Figure~\ref{fig:dottyplots} shows dotty-plots for each of the 10 parameters, where each dot represents an evaluation of the function (model) being optimised. By default, dotty-plots are shown for all parameter sets, however, and as seen from Figure~\ref{fig:dottyplots}, not all of them may show a good performance. At the same time, Figure~\ref{fig:boxplots} shows boxplots summarizing each parameter. Using the options \Verb+beh.thr+ and \Verb+MinMax+, a ``behavioural'' threshold is defined to select a sub-set of the best performing parameters. By defining \Verb+beh.thr+ we discard parameters showing a poor performance and, as such, this shows some parallelism with the specification of the rejection threshold in Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) \citep[see][]{beven2006a} or the definition of the burn-in samples in Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation \citep[see][]{gelman2004}.
+
+Interaction between parameters is shown in Figure~\ref{fig:3Ddottyplots}. This figure shows the interaction between the first 5 parameters (selected by default by \emph{hydroPSO}) as a function of the goodness-of-fit. Using \Verb+dp3D.names+ the user can select specific parameters to plot. If the option \Verb+beh.thr+ is specified, this figure shows the sub-set representing only the best-performance particles.
+
+Figure~\ref{fig:ParamPairs} shows a (matrix) summary of the interaction among parameters. Here, the statistical significance of the correlation as well as dispersion-like and histogram plot summaries are obtained.
+
+Empirical Cumulative Distribution Functions (ECDFs) for each parameter are shown in Figure~\ref{fig:ecdfs}. ECDFs are created for all parameter sets evaluated unless the \Verb+beh.thr+ option is specified. In the last case, ECDFs are built from the sub-set representing the best performance.
+
+Figure~\ref{fig:hist} shows the histograms of parameters. As in Figures~\ref{fig:3Ddottyplots} and~\ref{fig:ecdfs}, these histograms are calculated for all parameter sets retained unless the \Verb+beh.thr+ option is specified.
+
+Finally, Figures~\ref{fig:gofperiter},~\ref{fig:paramsperrun} and~\ref{fig:velsperrun} provide detailed information about the evolution of the goodness-of-fit function per iteration for each particle defined in the swarm, and particles' positions and velocities versus function (model) evaluation, respectively.
+
+\end{enumerate}
+
+\clearpage
+
+\begin{figure}[h!]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./PSO.out/pngs/ConvergenceMeasures.png}
+ \caption{Global Optimum (GOptim) and the Normalized Swarm Radius (NSR) versus iteration number.}
+ \label{fig:convmeas}
+\end{figure}
+
+\begin{figure}[h!]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./PSO.out/pngs/Params_DottyPlots.png}
+ \caption{Dotty-plots for each parameter.}
+ \label{fig:dottyplots}
+\end{figure}
+
+\clearpage
+
+\begin{figure}[h!]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./PSO.out/pngs/Params_Boxplots.png}
+ \caption{Box-plots for each parameter.}
+ \label{fig:boxplots}
+\end{figure}
+
+\begin{figure}[h!]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./PSO.out/pngs/Params_dp3d.png}
+ \caption{2-dimensional projected dotty-plots highlighting the interaction between parameters.}
+ \label{fig:3Ddottyplots}
+\end{figure}
+
+\clearpage
+
+\begin{figure}[h!]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./PSO.out/pngs/Params_Pairs.png}
+ \caption{Matrix summarizing the interaction among parameters (e.g. cross correlation, histograms, and statistical significance of the correlation).}
+ \label{fig:ParamPairs}
+\end{figure}
+
+\begin{figure}[h!]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./PSO.out/pngs/Params_ECDFs.png}
+ \caption{Empirical Cumulative Distribution Functions (ECDFs) for parameters.}
+ \label{fig:ecdfs}
+\end{figure}
+
+\clearpage
+
+\begin{figure}[h!]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./PSO.out/pngs/Params_Histograms.png}
+ \caption{Histograms for parameters.}
+ \label{fig:hist}
+\end{figure}
+
+\begin{figure}[h!]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./PSO.out/pngs/Particles_GofPerIter.png}
+ \caption{Goodness-of-fit measure for particles per iteration.}
+ \label{fig:gofperiter}
+\end{figure}
+
+\clearpage
+
+\begin{figure}[h!]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./PSO.out/pngs/Params_ValuesPerRun.png}
+ \caption{Parameter value per run.}
+ \label{fig:paramsperrun}
+\end{figure}
+
+\begin{figure}[h!]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./PSO.out/pngs/Velocities_ValuePerRun.png}
+ \caption{Particle velocities per run.}
+ \label{fig:velsperrun}
+\end{figure}
+
+\subsubsection{Optimisation of Griewank Function}
+Another commonly used benchmark is the Griewank function (Equation~\ref{eq:griewank}). This is similar to the Rastrigin function and shows a series of regularly distributed local optima, which makes the optimisation extremely challenging.
+
+\begin{equation}\label{eq:griewank}
+f(x)=\frac{1}{4000}\sum_{i=1}^{n}x_{i}^{2}-\prod_{i=1}^{n}\cos\left(\frac{x_i}{\sqrt{i}}\right)+1 \ ; \ -600 \leq x_i \leq 600 \ ; \ i=1,2,\ldots,n.
+\end{equation}
+
+\begin{enumerate}
+\item For the Griewank function we define upper and lower limits in [-600;600] and dimensionality d=10. For the optimisation we use 20 particles, 4000 iterations and the \Verb+gbest+ topology:
+<<>>=
+lower <- rep(-600,10)
+upper <- rep(600,10)
+set.seed(1111)
+hydroPSO(fn="griewank",lower=lower,upper=upper,
+ control=list(npart=20,maxit=4000,topology="gbest")
+ )
+@
+
+For this example, the \Verb+reltol+ criterion for convergence, which depends on the numerical characteristics of the machine where R is running, is met. \Verb+reltol+ is defined as \Verb+sqrt(.Machine$$double.eps)+, i.e. the smallest positive floating-point number. Solution for the optimisation is reached at iteration 2202.
+
+\item Using the \Verb+vonNeumann+ topology:
+<<>>=
+set.seed(1111)
+hydroPSO(fn="griewank",lower=lower,upper=upper,
+ control=list(npart=20,topology="vonNeumann")
+ )
+@
+
+Again for this case, the \Verb+reltol+ criterion for convergence is achieved at iteration 2287.
+
+\item Defining a time-variant inertia weight between [1.2;0.4] and a non-linear (exp=1.5) time-variant $c_1$ coefficient between [1.28;1.05]:
+<<>>=
+set.seed(1111)
+hydroPSO(fn="griewank",lower=lower,upper=upper,
+ control=list(npart=20,topology="vonNeumann",
+ use.IW=TRUE,IW.type="linear",
+ IW.w=c(1.2,0.4),use.TVc1=TRUE,TVc1.type=
+ "non-linear",TVc1.rng=c(1.28,1.05),
+ TVc1.exp=1.5))
+@
+
+Again for this case, the \Verb+reltol+ criterion for convergence is achieved at iteration 2268.
+
+\item We use here the \Verb+fips+ PSO variant with a \Verb+gbest+ topology and a velocity limiting factor (\Verb+lambda+) of 0.5:
+<<>>=
+set.seed(1111)
+hydroPSO(fn="griewank",lower=lower,upper=upper,
+ method="fips",control=list(npart=20,
+ topology="gbest",use.IW=TRUE,IW.type="linear",
+ IW.w=c(1.2,0.4),use.TVc1=TRUE,TVc1.type=
+ "non-linear",TVc1.rng=c(1.28,1.05),
+ TVc1.exp=1.5,lambda=0.5))
+@
+
+\item From the R console output we see premature convergence around iteration 1800 for a NSR ca. 10$^{-9}$. One option implemented in \emph{hydroPSO} to tackle this problem corresponds to the ``regrouping strategy'' developed by \citet{eversghalia2009}. For this case we active the regrouping strategy (\Verb+use.RG+) when the NSR is smaller than a threshold (\Verb+RG.thr+) defined as 10$^{-8}$:
+<<>>=
+set.seed(1111)
+hydroPSO(fn="griewank",lower=lower,upper=upper,
+ method="fips",control=list(npart=20,
+ topology="gbest",use.IW=TRUE,IW.type="linear",
+ IW.w=c(1.2,0.4),use.TVc1=TRUE,TVc1.type=
+ "non-linear",TVc1.rng=c(2.2,1.8),TVc1.exp=1.5,
+ use.RG=TRUE,RG.thr=1e-8,lambda=0.5))
+@
+
+>From the results we see that the regrouping strategy allows particles escaping from stagnation and finding a new optimum (9.9$\times$10$^{-3}$), which is better than the optimization without regrouping (2.7$\times$10$^{-2}$) for the same number of iterations (\Verb+maxit=4000+).
+
+\item By setting the working directory to \Verb+PSO.out+ and using the \Verb+read_convergence+ \emph{hydroPSO} function we can directly assess the results from the optimization as function of the iterations:
+
+<<eval=TRUE>>=
+setwd("PSO.out")
+read_convergence(beh.thr=0.05,MinMax="min",do.png=TRUE,
+ png.fname="ConvergenceMeasuresRegrouping.png")
+@
+
+Figure~\ref{fig:convmeasreag} shows the effect of the regrouping strategy for iterations with an optimised value smaller than 0.01. In this figure we observe the first stagnation occurring around iteration 1900, and the corresponding triggering of the regrouping for NSR values smaller than 10$^{-8}$. After the first triggering an initial exploration stage is activated until a better optimum is found (ca. 3450 it.), where again a second stagnation is observed. This whole process is repeated 5 times before reaching the maximum number of iterations.
+
+\end{enumerate}
+
+\begin{figure}[h!]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./PSO.out/ConvergenceMeasuresRegrouping.png}
+ \caption{Effect of regrouping strategy on the Global Optimum (Global Optimum) and the Normalized Swarm Radius (NSR) versus iteration number.}
+ \label{fig:convmeasreag}
+\end{figure}
+
+\emph{hydroPSO} has been validated against the Standard PSO 2007 algorithm developed by \citet{clerc2012} employing five test functions commonly used to assess the performance of optimisation algorithms. Validation indicates that both the Standard PSO 2007 and \emph{hydroPSO} produce comparable average results for fixed boundary condition, topology, inertia weight and number of iterations. For a detailed validation analysis we refer the reader to \citet{hydroPSO2012}.
+
+Finally, here we have illustrated a few options to boost the performance of the \emph{hydroPSO} package or to adapt the optimisation engine to different problems (e.g. premature convergence). We must note, however, that a successful optimisation for a given model code is most likely a proper combination of modeller's expertise and a versatile optimisation engine.
+
+\clearpage
+
+\section{Calibration of a Semi-Distributed Hydrological Model Using \emph{hydroPSO}\label{sec:swat2005}}
+\subsection{Hydrological System and Conceptualization\label{sec:swmodel}}
+The Ega River is a tributary of the Ebro River and originates in \'Alava (Cantabrian mountain range) flowing through the province of Navarra (see Figure~\ref{fig:fega01}). It has an area of 1445~km$^2$ and elevations ranging from 300 to 1400 m above sea level (a.s.l.) \citep{CHE2000}. For the implementation of the \emph{hydroPSO} package we concentrate on the headwater of the Ega catchment. This upper catchment has an area of 808 km$^2$, mean annual precipitation of ca.~818~mm~year$^{-1}$ and mean daily discharge equal to 12.5~m$^3$~s$^{-1}$ measured in Ega en Estella (Q071 in Figure~\ref{fig:fega01}) for the period 1961-1990.
+
+Simulated daily discharges were obtained with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) 2005 \citep{arnold+al1998,arnoldfohrer2005}, which is a basin scale, physically-based, continuous-time hydrological model operating on a daily time step. Model components include weather, hydrology, erosion/sedimentation, and diverse components for the plant-soil-nutrients system. For a full overview the reader is referred to \citet{arnold+al1998} and \citet{neitsch+al2005a}.
+
+\begin{figure}[h!]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=0.8\textwidth]{./figures/fega01.jpg}
+ \caption{Location of the Ega River catchment and gauging station (Q071) used for calibration.}
+ \label{fig:fega01}
+\end{figure}
+
+We set up SWAT-2005 with the modified SCS curve number for computing surface runoff, the Priestley-Taylor method for computing the evapotranspiration (ETP), and the Muskingum procedure for the channel routing \citep[see][]{neitsch+al2005a}. The AVSWAT-X GIS interface \citep[see][]{diluzio+al2004} was used to prepare all the input files required by SWAT-2005. Information on weather, topography, soil properties, and land use in the study area was provided by the Confederaci\'{o}n Hidrogr\'{a}fica del Ebro (CHE). Dominant soils in the catchment are marlstones, argillaceous marlstones, and breccia, whereas dominant land uses are forest (57.5\%), pasture (39.0\%), agriculture (2.95\%), rocks (0.4\%) and urban areas (0.12\%). Precipitation estimates were obtained from interpolation of daily data in four rain gauges (P9175, P9176, P9095, P9177U see Figure~\ref{fig:fega01}).
+
+SWAT-2005 contains numerous parameters describing processes where hydrology, water quality, and the soil-plant system interact. Table~\ref{tab:swatparams} shows a subset of 22 parameters (potentially) relevant for hydrological simulations \underline{only}. These parameters are located in different files required for SWAT-2005 (see column Location in Table~\ref{tab:swatparams}) and, thus, this tutorial illustrates how to interface \emph{hydroPSO} and a model code with multiple controlling files (see Section~\ref{sec:interfacingswat2005}). As explained later, only sensitive parameters were selected for calibrating the hydrological model for the Ega headwater catchment.
+
+\begin{table}
+\caption{Parameters of the SWAT-2005 model relevant for hydrological simulation. Range and sensitivity ranking constitute the basis for the implementation of the \emph{hydroPSO} package to calibrate SWAT-2005 in the upper Ega catchment.}
+\label{tab:swatparams}
+\centering
+\resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{
+\begin{threeparttable}
+\begin{tabular}{l l c c c c c}
+\toprule
+\multirow{2}{*}{Parameter} & & SWAT-2005 & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Range} & Default & Sensitivity \\
+\cmidrule{4-5}
+ & & File & Min & Max & Value & Ranking\tnote{1} \\
+\midrule
+Baseflow alpha factor [days] & ALPHA\_BF & *.gw & 1.00e-01 & 9.90e-01 & 4.80e-02 & 1 \\
+Manning's ``n'' value for the main channel [-] & CH\_N2 & *.rte & 1.60e-02 & 1.50e-01 & 1.40e-02 & 2 \\
+Initial SCS CN II value [-] & CN2 & *.mgt & 4.00e+01 & 9.50e+01 & 5.21e+02\tnote{2} & 3 \\
+Saturated hydraulic conductivity [mm/hr] & SOL\_K & *.sol & 1.00e-03 & 1.00e+03 & 4.28e+00\tnote{2} & 4 \\
+Available water capacity [mm H2O/mm soil] & SOL\_AWC & *.sol & 1.00e-02 & 3.50e-01 & 1.20e-01\tnote{2} & 5 \\
+Effective hydraulic conductivity in main channel alluvium [mm/hr]& CH\_K2 & *.rte & 0.00e+00 & 2.00e+02 & 0.00e+00 & 6 \\
+Soil evaporation compensation factor [-] & ESCO & *.hru & 1.00e-02 & 1.00e+00 & 9.50e-01 & 7 \\
+Surface runoff lag time [days] & SURLAG & *.bsn & 1.00e+00 & 1.20e+01 & 4.00e+00 & 8 \\
+Snowfall temperature [$^{\circ}{\rm C}$] & SFTMP & *.bsn & -5.00e+00 & 5.00e+00 & 1.00e+00 & 9 \\
+\midrule
+Snowmelt base temperature [$^{\circ}{\rm C}$] & SMTMP & *.bsn & -5.00e+00 & 5.00e+00 & 5.00e-01 & 10\tnote{3} \\
+Minimum melt factor for snow [$^{\circ}{\rm C}$]& SMFMN & *.bsn & 1.40e+00 & 6.90e+00 & 4.50e+00 & 11\tnote{3} \\
+Snowpack temperature lag factor [-] & TIMP & *.bsn & 1.00e-02 & 1.00e+00 & 1.00e+00 & 12\tnote{3} \\
+Maximum melt factor for snow [$^{\circ}{\rm C}$]& SMFMX & *.bsn & 1.40e+00 & 6.90e+00 & 4.50e+00 & 13\tnote{3} \\
+Manning's ``n'' value for overland flow [-] & OV\_N & *.hru & 8.00e-03 & 6.00e-01 & 1.00e-01 & 14\tnote{3}\\
+Deep aquifer percolation factor [-] & RCHRG\_DP & *.gw& 0.00e+00 & 1.00e+00 & 5.00e-02 & 15\tnote{3} \\
+Threshold water depth in the shallow aquifer for flow [mm] & GWQMN & *.gw & 0.00e+00 & 5.00e+03 & 0.00e+00 & 16\tnote{3} \\
+Groundwater ``\emph{revap}'' coefficient [-] & GW\_REVAP & *.gw & 0.00e+00 & 2.00e-01 & 2.00e-02 & 17\tnote{3} \\
+Groundwater delay time [days] & GW\_DELAY & *.gw & 1.00e+00 & 1.00e+02 & 3.10e+01 & 18\tnote{3} \\
+Moist soil albedo & SOL\_ALB & *.sol & 0.00e+00 & 1.00e-01 & 1.00e-02\tnote{2} & 19\tnote{3} \\
+Threshold water depth in the shallow aquifer for ``\emph{revap}'' [mm] & REVAVMN& *.gw & 1.00e+00 & 5.00e+02 & 1.00e+00 & 22\tnote{3} \\
+Plant uptake compensation factor [-] & EPCO & *.bsn & 1.00e-02 & 1.00e+00 & 1.00e+00 & 22\tnote{3} \\
+Maximum canopy storage [mm H$_2$O] & CANMX & *.hru & 0.00e+00 & 1.00e+01 & 0.00e+00 & 22\tnote{3} \\
+\bottomrule
+\end{tabular}
+ \begin{tablenotes}
+ \item[1] Sensitivity analysis based on LH-OAT (see Section~\ref{sec:sensitswat2005}).
+ \item[2] Default values based on the study area information.
+ \item[3] Insensitive parameters obtained from the LH-OAT analysis.
+ \end{tablenotes}
+\end{threeparttable}
+}
+\end{table}
+
+\subsection{Interfacing \emph{hydroPSO} and SWAT-2005\label{sec:interfacingswat2005}}
+The interaction between SWAT-2005 and \emph{hydroPSO} is shown in Figure~\ref{fig:swathydroPSO}. Here, SWAT-2005 is executed by \Verb+swat2005.exe+ (or \Verb+swat2005.out+ under GNU/Linux), which reads several input files (e.g. *.mgt, *.gw, *.sol, *.hru, *.bsn, and *.rte) containing the parameters to be calibrated. \Verb+swat2005.exe+ executes the SWAT-2005 model code and produces the *.rch file, which contains simulated discharges for defined river reaches. River discharges simulated by SWAT-2005 are then read by the \emph{hydroPSO} function \Verb+rch2zoo+, which transforms the time series of discharge values into a \Verb+zoo+ R object (\textit{\textbf{sim}}). Subsequently, the \emph{hydroGOF} R package (see \url{http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/hydroGOF/}) is used to calculate a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) \citep[see][]{nashsutcliffe1970} as goodness-of-fit measure (Note that loading the \emph{hydroGOF} R package gives the user a full suite of goodness-of-fit measures such as: root mean square error (rms), normalized rms (nrms), Pearson correlation coefficient, (r), coefficient of determination (R2), modified NSE (mNSE), index of agreement (d), coefficient of persistence (cp), percent bias (pbias), Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) among others). NSE is used to assess the quality of the current parameter set (particles' positions) by \emph{hydroPSO}. Then, \emph{hydroPSO} updates the current particles' positions (parameter set) on the basis of the current NSE and the new updated parameter values (best particles' positions) are written into the corresponding files defined in \emph{ParamFiles.txt}.
+
+\begin{figure}[t]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=0.65\textwidth]{./figures/swathydroPSO.pdf}
+ \caption{Interaction of \emph{hydroPSO} with SWAT-2005 and main I/O wrapper functions defined.}
+ \label{fig:swathydroPSO}
+\end{figure}
+
+\subsection{Definition of \emph{ParamFiles.txt} and~\emph{ParamRanges.txt} files}
+The basic interaction between \emph{hydroPSO} and SWAT-2005 is defined through the specification of, first, the names and location of the parameters to be calibrated and, second, the definition of meaningful parameter ranges. This information is provided by two (problem-specific) ASCII files, namely, \emph{ParamFiles.txt} and \emph{ParamRanges.txt}, which must be contained in the \Verb+./PSO.in+ folder. In general, if a sensitivity analysis is implemented resulting in the identification of (in)sensitive parameters, the \emph{hydroPSO} user will have to define two sets of interfacing files, one for the sensitivity analysis (most likely including all parameters considered) and other for the calibration stage (most likely including only sensitive parameters). In this study case, \emph{ParamFiles-Sens.txt} and \emph{ParamRanges-Sens.txt} are defined as the interfacing files used for the sensitivity analysis, which correspond to the full set of hydrology-related parameters listed in Table~\ref{tab:swatparams}.
+
+\begin{Verbatim}[frame=single,label=ParamFiles-Sens.txt,fontsize=\scriptsize]
+ParameterNmbr ParameterName Filename Row.Number Col.Start Col.End DecimalPlaces
+1 CN2 000010001.mgt 11 4 16 5
+1 CN2 000020001.mgt 11 4 16 5
+2 ESCO basins.bsn 13 4 16 3
+3 SURLAG basins.bsn 20 4 16 3
+4 RCHRG_DP 000010001.gw 9 1 16 7
+4 RCHRG_DP 000020001.gw 9 1 16 7
+5 GWQMN 000010001.gw 6 1 16 7
+5 GWQMN 000020001.gw 6 1 16 7
+6 GW_REVAP 000010001.gw 7 1 16 7
+6 GW_REVAP 000020001.gw 7 1 16 7
+7 REVAPMN 000010001.gw 8 1 16 7
+7 REVAPMN 000020001.gw 8 1 16 7
+8 GW_DELAY 000010001.gw 4 1 16 7
+8 GW_DELAY 000020001.gw 4 1 16 7
+9 ALPHA_BF 000010001.gw 5 1 16 7
+9 ALPHA_BF 000020001.gw 5 1 16 7
+10 SOL_K 000010001.sol 11 28 39 5
+10 SOL_K 000010001.sol 11 40 51 5
+10 SOL_K 000010001.sol 11 52 63 5
+10 SOL_K 000020001.sol 11 28 39 5
+10 SOL_K 000020001.sol 11 40 51 5
+10 SOL_K 000020001.sol 11 52 63 5
+11 SOL_AWC 000010001.sol 10 28 39 5
+11 SOL_AWC 000010001.sol 10 40 51 5
+11 SOL_AWC 000010001.sol 10 52 63 5
+11 SOL_AWC 000020001.sol 10 28 39 5
+11 SOL_AWC 000020001.sol 10 40 51 5
+11 SOL_AWC 000020001.sol 10 52 63 5
+12 CH_N2 000010000.rte 6 4 16 3
+12 CH_N2 000020000.rte 6 4 16 3
+13 CH_K2 000010000.rte 7 4 16 3
+13 CH_K2 000020000.rte 7 4 16 3
+14 OV_N 000010001.hru 5 4 16 3
+14 OV_N 000020001.hru 5 4 16 3
+15 SFTMP basins.bsn 4 4 16 3
+16 SMTMP basins.bsn 5 4 16 3
+17 SMFMX basins.bsn 6 4 16 3
+18 SMFMN basins.bsn 7 4 16 3
+19 TIMP basins.bsn 8 4 16 3
+20 EPCO basins.bsn 14 4 16 3
+21 CANMX 000010001.hru 9 4 16 3
+21 CANMX 000020001.hru 9 4 16 3
+22 SOL_ALB 000010001.sol 17 28 39 5
+22 SOL_ALB 000010001.sol 17 40 51 5
+22 SOL_ALB 000010001.sol 17 52 63 5
+22 SOL_ALB 000020001.sol 17 28 39 5
+22 SOL_ALB 000020001.sol 17 40 51 5
+22 SOL_ALB 000020001.sol 17 52 63 5
+\end{Verbatim}
+
+\begin{Verbatim}[frame=single,label=ParamRanges-Sens.txt,fontsize=\scriptsize]
+ParameterNmbr ParameterName MinValue MaxValue
+1 CN2 40 95
+2 ESCO 0.01 1
+3 SURLAG 1 12
+4 RCHRG_DP 0 1.0
+5 GWQMN 0 5000
+6 GW_REVAP 0 0.2
+7 REVAPMN 1 500
+8 GW_DELAY 1 100
+9 ALPHA_BF 0.01 0.99
+10 SOL_K 0.001 1000
+11 SOL_AWC 0.01 0.35
+12 CH_N2 0.016 0.150
+13 CH_K2 0 200
+14 OV_N 0.008 0.600
+15 SFTMP -5 5
+16 SMTMP -5 5
+17 SMFMX 1.4 6.9
+18 SMFMN 1.4 6.9
+19 TIMP 0.01 1
+20 EPCO 0.01 1
+21 CANMX 0 10
+22 SOL_ALB 0 0.1
+\end{Verbatim}
+
+\subsection{Implementation Details and Results of the Calibration\label{sec:resultsswat2005}}
+\subsubsection{Sensitivity Analysis\label{sec:sensitswat2005}}
+As first step, a sensitivity analysis is performed on the 22 parameters listed in Table~\ref{tab:swatparams}. The \Verb+lhoat()+ \emph{hydroPSO} function allows the user to rank relevant parameters according to their impact on model predictions or performance using the Latin Hypercube One-factor-At-a-Time (LH-OAT) method developed by \citet{vangriensven+al2006}. LH-OAT works by taking $M$ LH sampling points ($M$ strata for each parameter) and then varying by a fraction $s$ each LH sampling point $D$ times, where $D$ is the number of parameters (i.e. problem dimensionality). For each LH sampling point a partial effect for each parameter is calculated and a final effect (impact on model predictions) is calculated by averaging these partial effects for each parameter. The method is very efficient requiring a total of $M(D+1)$ runs. Details of the sensitivity analysis implemented for SWAT-2005 are as follows:
+
+\begin{enumerate}
+\item Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) is used as a goodness-of-fit measure (\emph{hydroGOF} R package).
+
+\item Period for the analysis corresponds to 01-Jan-1962 to 31-Dec-1970 using a daily time step.
+
+\item The number of strata for the LH sampling was defined as $M=300$, whereas the fraction of variation was 10\%, i.e. $s=0.1$.
+
+\item Observations used to assess the model performance are stored in the auxiliary file \Verb+SWAT_obs.txt+, whereas the auxiliary file \Verb+LHOAT-SWAT2005.R+ implements the sensitivity analysis as follows:
+
+\begin{Verbatim}[frame=single,label=LHOAT-SWAT2005.R,fontsize=\scriptsize]
+###Loading required libraries
+library(hydroPSO)
+library(hydroGOF)
+library(hydroTSM)
+library(SWAT2R) # if not on CRAN, get it from \url{http://www.rforge.net/SWAT2R/}
+
+###Definition of working directory: input, output and model files paths
+model.drty <- "~/SWAT2005"
+setwd(model.drty)
+param.ranges <- paste(model.drty,"/PSO.in/ParamRanges-Sens.txt",sep="")
+
+###Period of analysis (see "file.cio" SWAT file)
+Sim.Ini="1962-01-01"
+Sim.Fin="1965-12-31"
+gof.Ini="1962-01-01"
+gof.Fin="1965-12-31"
+
+###Goodness-of-fit function, either customized or pre-defined from hydroGOF
+gof.FUN <- "NSE"
+gof.FUN.args <- list()
+
+###Getting the OBSERVATIONS
+q.obs <- read.zoo("SWAT_obs.txt")
+
+###Arguments for the model to be assessed
+model.FUN.args=list(
+ model.drty=model.drty,
+ param.files=paste(model.drty,"/PSO.in/ParamFiles-Sens.txt",sep=""),
+ #exe.fname="./swat2005.out", # GNU/Linux
+ exe.fname="swat2005.exe", # Windows XP/Vista/7/...
+ #verbose=TRUE, # To see on the screen which parameters are changed
+ #stdout="",
+ stderr=FALSE,
+ ###Function for reading the simulated equivalents
+ out.FUN="read_rch",
+ out.FUN.args=list(
+ file="output.rch",
+ col.names="FLOW_OUTcms",
+ out.type="Q",
+ rchID=1,
+ Date.Ini=Sim.Ini,
+ Date.Fin=Sim.Fin,
+ tstep="daily"), ###END out.FUN.args
+ ###Function assessing the simulated equivalents against the observations
+ gof.FUN=gof.FUN,
+ gof.FUN.args=gof.FUN.args
+ gof.Ini=gof.Ini,
+ gof.Fin=gof.Fin,
+ obs=q.obs,
+) ###END model.FUN.args
+
+###Main Latin-Hypercube One-factor-At-a-Time Sensitivity Analysis
+lhoat(
+ fn="hydromod",
+ model.FUN="hydromod",
+ model.FUN.args=model.FUN.args,
+ control=list(
+ N=300,
+ f=0.1,
+ drty.out="LH_OAT",
+ param.ranges=param.ranges,
+ gof.name="GoF",
+ do.plots=FALSE,
+ write2disk=TRUE,
+ verbose= TRUE) ###END control options
+) ###END lhoat
+\end{Verbatim}
+
+\item This sensitivity analysis requires a total of 6900 iterations ($M=300$ and $D=22$). In \Verb+LHOAT-SWAT2005.R+ we define the keyword \Verb+NSE+ from \emph{hydroGOF} as goodness-of-fit measure as well as \Verb+SWAT_obs.txt+ as the file containing the daily discharge observations. Within the arguments for the model code to be assessed, we must define the location of the \Verb+ParamFiles.txt+ and the name of the executable file (\Verb+swat2005.out+). In addition, we specify the function for reading the simulated discharges (\Verb+out.FUN+) as \Verb+rch2zoo+, whereas the assessment of each simulation is done through \Verb+gof.FUN="NSE"+. For the \Verb+lhoat()+ function we first define the keyword \Verb+hydromod+, which indicates that an external model code (i.e. not a pre-defined test function coded in \emph{hydroPSO}) will be analysed. Arguments \Verb+N=300+, \Verb+f=0.1+, and \Verb+drty.out=LH_OAT+ are used to define the number of strata, the fraction of variation for each parameter, and the name of the folder where results will be saved, respectively. \Verb+lhoat()+ produces the file \Verb+LH_OAT-Ranking.txt+, which contains a ranking of parameters according to their relative importance.
+
+\begin{Verbatim}[frame=single,label=LH\_OAT-Ranking.txt,fontsize=\scriptsize]
+RankingNmbr ParameterName RelativeImportance
+1 ALPHA_BF 5.707630e+02
+2 CH_N2 2.238171e+02
+3 CN2 1.874606e+02
+4 SOL_K 1.433732e+02
+5 SOL_AWC 1.298079e+02
+6 CH_K2 9.871332e+01
+7 ESCO 9.403977e+01
+8 SURLAG 6.890757e+01
+9 SFTMP 5.144755e+01
+10 SMTMP 2.285713e+01
+11 SMFMN 1.619080e+01
+12 TIMP 6.051893e+00
+13 SMFMX 3.735775e+00
+14 OV_N 2.607991e+00
+15 RCHRG_DP 4.295568e-01
+16 GWQMN 3.301034e-01
+17 GW_REVAP 1.705301e-01
+18 GW_DELAY 6.303209e-02
+19 SOL_ALB 1.192648e-02
+20 REVAPMN 4.581639e-03
+22 EPCO 0.000000e+00
+22 CANMX 0.000000e+00
+\end{Verbatim}
+
+\item The ranking obtained from the sensitivity analysis is included in the last column of Table~\ref{tab:swatparams}. We see from this table that 9 parameters are identified as sensitive using a NSE as goodness-of-fit measure for daily discharge simulations in the period 01-Jan-1962 to 31-Dec-1970 (several trials showed that the tenth parameter, \Verb+SMTMP+, is relatively insensitive, and for sake of clarity, we have excluded it from the subsequent analysis). In general, this ranking is in agreement with previous research \citep[see e.g.][]{holvoet+al2005,muletanicklow2005,vanLiew+al2005,vangriensven+al2006,kannan+al2007,vanLiew+al2007}, and this subset of parameters constitute the basis for the calibration of the SWAT-2005 model. The resulting files (\Verb+ParamFiles.txt+ and \Verb+ParamRanges.txt+) used to interface \emph{hydroPSO} and SWAT-2005 in the calibration stage are as follows:
+
+\end{enumerate}
+
+\begin{Verbatim}[frame=single,label=ParamFiles.txt,fontsize=\scriptsize]
+ParameterNmbr ParameterName Filename Row.Number Col.Start Col.End DecimalPlaces
+1 CN2 000010001.mgt 11 4 16 5
+1 CN2 000020001.mgt 11 4 16 5
+2 ESCO basins.bsn 13 4 16 3
+3 SURLAG basins.bsn 20 4 16 3
+4 ALPHA_BF 000010001.gw 5 1 16 7
+4 ALPHA_BF 000020001.gw 5 1 16 7
+5 SOL_K 000010001.sol 11 28 39 5
+5 SOL_K 000010001.sol 11 40 51 5
+5 SOL_K 000010001.sol 11 52 63 5
+5 SOL_K 000020001.sol 11 28 39 5
+5 SOL_K 000020001.sol 11 40 51 5
+5 SOL_K 000020001.sol 11 52 63 5
+6 SOL_AWC 000010001.sol 10 28 39 5
+6 SOL_AWC 000010001.sol 10 40 51 5
+6 SOL_AWC 000010001.sol 10 52 63 5
+6 SOL_AWC 000020001.sol 10 28 39 5
+6 SOL_AWC 000020001.sol 10 40 51 5
+6 SOL_AWC 000020001.sol 10 52 63 5
+7 CH_N2 000010000.rte 6 4 16 3
+7 CH_N2 000020000.rte 6 4 16 3
+8 CH_K2 000010000.rte 7 4 16 3
+8 CH_K2 000020000.rte 7 4 16 3
+9 SFTMP basins.bsn 4 4 16 3
+\end{Verbatim}
+
+\begin{Verbatim}[frame=single,label=ParamRanges.txt,fontsize=\scriptsize]
+ParameterNmbr ParameterName MinValue MaxValue
+1 CN2 40 95
+2 ESCO 0.01 1
+3 SURLAG 1 12
+4 ALPHA_BF 0.01 0.99
+5 SOL_K 0.001 1000
+6 SOL_AWC 0.01 0.35
+7 CH_N2 0.016 0.150
+8 CH_K2 0 200
+9 SFTMP -5 5
+\end{Verbatim}
+
+\subsubsection{Calibration\label{sec:calibswat2005}}
+After obtaining a ranking with the most sensitive parameters, the calibration of the river discharges for the EGA headwater catchment proceeded as follows:
+
+\begin{enumerate}
+\item Files interfacing \emph{hydroPSO} and SWAT-2005 (i.e. \Verb+ParamFiles.txt+ and~\Verb+ParamRanges.txt+) are stored in the \Verb+./PSO.in+ folder, within the directory containing all the required files to run SWAT-2005, which for this tutorial is \Verb+./SWAT2005+.
+
+\item Several auxiliary files (described below) are included in \Verb+./SWAT2005+:
+
+\begin{Verbatim}[frame=single,label=Auxiliary Files in SWAT2005,fontsize=\small]
+hydroPSO-SWAT2005.R -> Main R script to run hydroPSO
+SWAT_obs.txt -> ASCII file with the discharge observations
+\end{Verbatim}
+
+As previously explained (see Section~\ref{sec:sensitswat2005}), the file \Verb+LH_OAT-Ranking.txt+ is saved in the folder \Verb+./SWAT2005/LH_OAT+.
+
+\item The setup for the calibration of the Ega headwater catchment is defined in the \Verb+hydroPSO-SWAT2005.R+ script. By default all the results from hydroPSO are saved into the \Verb+PSO.out+ folder, however, this can be redefined by using the \Verb+drty.out+ argument.
+
+\begin{Verbatim}[frame=single,label=hydroPSO-SWAT2005.R,fontsize=\scriptsize]
+####################################################################################
+## Example to interface SWAT-2005 with hydroPSO. This script allows hydroPSO to #
+## take control of the execution of SWAT-2005 through the definition of a batch #
+## file (run_me.bat) and a series of simple I/O R scripts #
+## #
+## Part of the hydroPSO R package #
+## http://www.rforge.net/hydroPSO/ http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/hydroPSO #
+## Copyright 2011-2012 Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini & Rodrigo Rojas #
+## Distributed under GPL 2 or later #
+## #
+## Created by Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini and Rodrigo Rojas. 26-Oct-2011 #
+## Last saved: 13-Feb-2012 #
+####################################################################################
+
+###Loading required libraries
+library(hydroPSO)
+library(hydroGOF)
+library(hydroTSM)
+library(SWAT2R) # if not on CRAN, get it from \url{http://www.rforge.net/SWAT2R/}
+
+###Definition of working directory: input, output and model files paths
+model.drty <- "~/SWAT2005"
+setwd(model.drty)
+
+###Period of analysis
+Sim.Ini="1962-01-01"
+Sim.Fin="1965-12-31"
+gof.Ini="1962-01-01"
+gof.Fin="1965-12-31"
+
+###Goodness-of-fit function, either customized or pre-defined from hydroGOF
+gof.FUN <- "NSE"
+gof.FUN.args <- list()
+
+###Getting the OBSERVATIONS
+q.obs <- read.zoo("SWAT_obs.txt")
+
+###MAIN model function
+model.FUN.args=list(
+ model.drty=model.drty,
+ param.files=paste(model.drty,"/PSO.in/ParamFiles.txt",sep=""),
+ #exe.fname="./swat2005.out", # GNU/Linux
+ exe.fname="swat2005.exe", # Windows XP/Vista/7/...
+ #verbose=FALSE, # To see on the screen which parameters are changed
+ #stdout="",
+ stderr=FALSE,
+ ###Function for reading the simulated equivalents
+ out.FUN="read_rch",
+ out.FUN.args=list(
+ file="output.rch",
+ col.names="FLOW_OUTcms",
+ out.type="Q",
+ rchID=1,
+ Date.Ini=Sim.Ini,
+ Date.Fin=Sim.Fin,
+ tstep="daily",
+ verbose=FALSE), ###END out.FUN.args
+ ###Function for assessing the simulated equivalents against the observations
+ gof.FUN=gof.FUN,
+ gof.FUN.args=gof.FUN.args,
+ gof.Ini=gof.Ini,
+ gof.Fin=gof.Fin,
+ obs=q.obs,
+) ###END model.FUN.args
+
+###MAIN PSO ALGORITHM
+###For hydroPSO fine-tuning parameters, see Zambrano-Bigiarini and Rojas,2012
+set.seed(100)
+hydroPSO(
+ fn="hydromod",
+ model.FUN="hydromod",
+ model.FUN.args=model.FUN.args,
+ control=list(
+ param.ranges="ParamRanges-09params-sub090.txt",
+ MinMax="max",
+ npart=20,
+ maxit=2000,
+ lambda=1,
+ c2=0.5+log(2),
+ use.IW=TRUE,IW.type="linear",IW.w=1/(2*log(2)),IW.exp=1,
+ use.TVc1=TRUE,TVc1.type="non-linear",TVc1.rng=c(1.28,1.05),TVc1.exp=1.5,
+ use.TVlambda=TRUE,TVlambda.type="linear",TVlambda.rng=c(1.0,0.5),TVlambda.exp=
+ 1,
+ topology="random",K=3,
+ boundary.wall="reflecting",
+ write2disk=TRUE,
+ REPORT=5,
+ verbose=TRUE
+ ) ###END control options
+) ###END MAIN hydroPSO ALGORITHM
+\end{Verbatim}
+
+\item In the \Verb+hydroPSO-SWAT2005.R+ script we first load all the required libraries, setup the working directory, and define the simulation period as well as the period for calculating the goodness-of-fit measure (these two could be different depending on the nature of the application). To assess the performance of each particle in \emph{hydroPSO} we use the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) implemented in the \emph{hydroGOF} package as goodness-of-fit measure. Discharge observations used to assess the corresponding simulated equivalents are read as a \Verb+zoo+ object in R (to take advantage of time attributes) from the \Verb+SWAT_obs.txt+ ASCII file. Then, we define all arguments related to the main model code to be calibrated. Note that these arguments are identical as for the sensitivity analysis (\Verb+LHOAT-SWAT2005.R+) and, so, they will not be repeated here. For the main \emph{hydroPSO} algorithm, the keyword \Verb+hydromod+ \textbf{must} be used for the argument \Verb+fn+ when a function different from a predefined test function is calibrated. This will indicate \emph{hydroPSO} to expect for external files containing the model executable(s), input(s), an ouput(s) files. For this example, we use the traditional \Verb+pso+ (default) algorithm to maximize (\Verb+MinMax="max"+) the NSE calculated by \emph{hydroGOF} (\Verb+gof.FUN="NSE"+). A swarm of 20 particles (\Verb+npart=20+) considering 2000 iterations (\Verb+maxit=2000+) for the algorithm is defined. A constant inertia weight equal to \Verb+1/(2*log(2))+ and a non-linear (\Verb+TVc1.type="non-linear"+) time-variant cognition coefficient ($c_1$) (\Verb+use.TVc1=TRUE+) in the range [1.28,1.05] with exponent 1.5 (\Verb+TVc1.exp=1.5+) are defined. In addition, we improve on the definition of the factor clamping the velocities (\Verb+lambda+) by using a linear variation between [1.0,0.5]. Particles interact following the \Verb+random+ topology with 3 informants. Finally, results are saved by default in the folder \Verb+./PSO.out+.
+
+\item Plotting the results (Figures~\ref{fig:convmeas-swat} to~\ref{fig:simvsobs_quant-swat}). Using the \Verb+plot_results()+ function results are saved directly to the folder \Verb+./PSO.out/pngs+:
+<<eval=FALSE>>=
+plot_results(do.png=TRUE)
+@
+
+Although it is not the aim of this tutorial to provide an extensive analysis of the hydrological calibration for the Ega headwater catchment, we briefly discuss the results obtained from \emph{hydroPSO}. Figure~\ref{fig:convmeas-swat} shows the evolution of the the Gbest, i.e. the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency, as a function of the iteration number. We see an initial exploration phase (up to ca. iter=120) that stabilizes after iteration 200 around a value of NSE=0.77. At the same time, the Normalized Swarm Radius indicates a clear convergence to the attraction zone around this optimum. Although not shown here, several trials (including different number of iterations and particles for the swarm) indicate that this solution is most likely the global optimum for the calibration.
+
+A dotty-plot for the different (sensitive) parameters listed in Table~\ref{tab:swatparams} is shown in Figure~\ref{fig:dottyplots-swat}. >From this figure we see a good identification for all parameters, except ESCO and SURLAG, which show a relatively flat response surface. Figure~\ref{fig:3Ddottyplots-swat} complements the previous one by showing a 2-Dimensional projection of the goodness-of-fit surface response (NSE) for different parameter pairs. Figure~\ref{fig:ParamPairs-swat}, in turn, summarizes the interaction among all (sensitive) parameters listed in Table~\ref{tab:swatparams}. Here a clear correlation between the NSE and CH\_N2, CH\_K2 is observed, whereas a statistically significant cross-correlation is observed between CH\_K2 (CH\_N2) and ALPHA\_BF. Empirical Cumulative Distribution Functions (ECDFs) (Figure~\ref{fig:ecdfs-swat}) and histograms (Figure~\ref{fig:hist-swat}) for the parameters show a good specification with reduced uncertainty around the median and some for the extreme quantiles. Figures~\ref{fig:gofperiter-swat},~\ref{fig:paramsperrun-swat}, and~\ref{fig:velsperrun-swat} provide, in turn, useful information to assess the performance and convergence of the NSE, parameters, and velocities per iteration number. By analysing these figures we conclude that the \emph{hydroPSO} package converged to a suitable attraction zone.
+
+Figure~\ref{fig:simvsobs-swat} provides the daily and monthly time-series summarizing the calibration together with a series of performance indicators. In general, we see a slight underestimation of recession and peak-flows (PBIAS=-2.8\%) with a good agreement of average flows (MAE=4.67) and a final optimised Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.78. At the same time, Figure~\ref{fig:simvsobs_corr-swat} shows a scatter plot of simulated versus observed daily discharges. Finally, Figure~\ref{fig:simvsobs_quant-swat} shows different user-defined quantiles including an estimation of the percentage bias for the specified quantiles.
+
+\end{enumerate}
+
+\clearpage
+
+\begin{sidewaysfigure}[!ht]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./figures/SWAT2005/ConvergenceMeasures.png}
+ \caption{Evolution of the Global Optimum (GOptim) and the Normalized Swarm Radius (NSR) versus iteration number for the calibration of the Ega headwater catchment.}
+ \label{fig:convmeas-swat}
+\end{sidewaysfigure}
+
+\clearpage
+
+\begin{sidewaysfigure}[!ht]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./figures/SWAT2005/Params_DottyPlots.png}
+ \caption{Dotty-plots for the (sensitive) parameters listed in Table~\ref{tab:swatparams}. Vertical and horizontal coloured lines show the location of the highest goodness-of-fit value (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency).}
+ \label{fig:dottyplots-swat}
+\end{sidewaysfigure}
+
+\clearpage
+
+\begin{sidewaysfigure}[!ht!]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./figures/SWAT2005/Params_dp3d.png}
+ \caption{2-dimensional projected dotty-plots highlighting the interaction among the first seven (sensitive) parameters listed in Table~\ref{tab:swatparams}.}
+ \label{fig:3Ddottyplots-swat}
+\end{sidewaysfigure}
+
+\clearpage
+
+\begin{sidewaysfigure}[!ht]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./figures/SWAT2005/Params_Pairs.png}
+ \caption{Matrix summarizing the cross-correlation, histograms and statistical significance of the correlation for the (sensitive) parameters listed in Table~\ref{tab:swatparams}.}
+ \label{fig:ParamPairs-swat}
+\end{sidewaysfigure}
+
+\clearpage
+
+\begin{sidewaysfigure}[!ht]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./figures/SWAT2005/Params_ECDFs.png}
+ \caption{Empirical Cumulative Distribution Functions (ECDFs) for the (sensitive) parameters listed in Table~\ref{tab:swatparams}. Vertical and horizontal grey dashed-line indicate the location of a user-defined percentile.}
+ \label{fig:ecdfs-swat}
+\end{sidewaysfigure}
+
+\clearpage
+
+\begin{sidewaysfigure}[!ht]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./figures/SWAT2005/Params_Histograms.png}
+ \caption{Histograms for the (sensitive) parameters listed in Table~\ref{tab:swatparams}. Vertical red lines show the location of the highest goodness-of-fit value (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency).}
+ \label{fig:hist-swat}
+\end{sidewaysfigure}
+
+\clearpage
+
+\begin{sidewaysfigure}[!ht]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./figures/SWAT2005/Particles_GofPerIter.png}
+ \caption{Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency for all 20 particles for 2000 iterations.}
+ \label{fig:gofperiter-swat}
+\end{sidewaysfigure}
+
+\clearpage
+
+\begin{sidewaysfigure}[!ht]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./figures/SWAT2005/Params_ValuesPerRun.png}
+ \caption{Convergence of the different (sensitive) parameters as a function of the iteration number.}
+ \label{fig:paramsperrun-swat}
+\end{sidewaysfigure}
+
+\clearpage
+
+\begin{sidewaysfigure}[!ht]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./figures/SWAT2005/Velocities_ValuePerRun.png}
+ \caption{Convergence of the velocities for each (sensitive) parameter as a function of the iteration number.}
+ \label{fig:velsperrun-swat}
+\end{sidewaysfigure}
+
+\clearpage
+
+\begin{sidewaysfigure}[!ht]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./figures/SWAT2005/ModelOut_BestSim_vs_Obs-ggof.png}
+ \caption{Simulated versus Observed discharges at the station Q071 (see Figure~\ref{fig:fega01}). Upper panels show daily calibrated time series and summary box. Lower panels show monthly (aggregated) time series and summary box.}
+ \label{fig:simvsobs-swat}
+\end{sidewaysfigure}
+
+\clearpage
+
+\begin{sidewaysfigure}[!ht]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./figures/SWAT2005/ModelOut_BestSim_vs_Obs-Corr.png}
+ \caption{Scatter plot of best simulated versus observed daily discharges at the station Q071 (see Figure~\ref{fig:fega01}).}
+ \label{fig:simvsobs_corr-swat}
+\end{sidewaysfigure}
+
+\clearpage
+
+\begin{sidewaysfigure}[!ht]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./figures/SWAT2005/ModelOut_Quantiles.png}
+ \caption{ECDFs for user-defined quantiles (5, 95 and 95). Vertical dashed-line represents the observed quantile.}
+ \label{fig:simvsobs_quant-swat}
+\end{sidewaysfigure}
+
+\clearpage
+
+\section{Calibration of a Groundwater Flow Model Using \emph{hydroPSO}\label{sec:mf2005}}
+\subsection{Groundwater System and Conceptualization\label{sec:gwmodel}}
+The model to be calibrated is termed ``M2'' and is similar to the model implemented in \citet{rojas2010a}. The groundwater system is described by an unconfined aquifer which receives lateral groundwater recharges at the eastern boundary and over all domain through deep fissures in basement rocks. The system exchanges groundwater with contiguous aquifers at the western and southern boundaries, whereas at the northern boundary it shows a groundwater divide. Main outputs of groundwater from the system corresponds to high transpiration rates from forested areas and high evaporation rates from ``playas''. The groundwater system is assumed to be under steady-state conditions. An schematic representation of the system is shown in Figure~\ref{fig:f02vign}.
+
+This groundwater system is conceptualized as a one-layer aquifer, with the northern and southern interaction with external forcings expressed as constant-head boundaries using the BAS6 package of MF2005. Recharge mechanisms are expressed by lateral constant flux and spatially-distributed recharge rates using the WEL and RCH packages of MF2005, respectively. We consider 22 hydraulic conductivity zones obtained from \citet{rojas2007} implemented in the LPF package, one transpiration zone defined as negative rates using the RCH package and one evaporation zone implemented in the EVT package. In total, 30 parameters are considered for the calibration of model M2. The definition of parameters as well as their feasible ranges to implement \emph{hydroPSO} are shown in Table~\ref{tab:M2pars}. In addition, we consider 42 observation wells (evenly) distributed in the modelled domain for calibration purposes.
+
+\begin{table}[ht]
+\caption{Parameters used to calibrate model M2 with the \emph{hydroPSO} package.}
+\centering
+\resizebox{24pc}{!}{
+\begin{tabular}{llcc}
+\toprule
+Parameter & & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Range} \\
+\cmidrule{3-4}
+ & & Min & Max \\
+\midrule
+Recharge (Lateral fluxes) [m$^{3}$~d$^{-1}$] & RECH & 0 & 345600\\
+Recharge from basement rocks [m$^{3}$~d$^{-1}$] & RECH\_BAS & 0 & 172800\\
+Transpiration forested areas [m$^{3}$~d$^{-1}$] & TRANSP & 0 & 172800\\
+Discharge to eastern aquifers [m$^{3}$~d$^{-1}$] & NORIA & 0 & 86400 \\
+Evaporation rate [m~d$^{-1}$] & EVTR & 0 & 0.01 \\
+Extinction depth [m] & EXTD & 0 & 20 \\
+Elevation constant head north [m] & CH\_N & 1075 & 1120 \\
+Elevation constant head south [m] & CH\_S & 875 & 920 \\
+Hydraulic conductivity for 22 zones [m~d$^{-1}$] & $K$ & 0 & 100 \\
+\bottomrule
+\end{tabular}
+}
+\label{tab:M2pars}
+\end{table}
+
+\begin{figure}[ht]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=0.5\textwidth]{./figures/f02vign.pdf}
+ \caption{Groundwater system conceptualization for model ``M2''. Note that M2 is set up with 22 hydraulic conductivity zones and 42 observation wells.}
+ \label{fig:f02vign}
+\end{figure}
+
+\subsection{Interfacing \emph{hydroPSO} and MF2005 and ZB\label{sec:interfacingmf2005}}
+The interaction between \emph{hydroPSO} and M2 (MF2005/ZB) is depicted in Figure~\ref{fig:f03vign}. \emph{run\_me.bat} is a simple batch script executing programmes \Verb+preproc+, \Verb+mf2005+ and \Verb+zonebud_hydroPSO+ sequentially. \Verb+preproc+ is a simple read/write FORTRAN code reading the \emph{pre\_param.txt} file for M2, which is an ASCII file containing updated parameter values produced by \emph{hydroPSO} after each iteration. \Verb+preproc+ is problem-specific and copies the (updated) parameter values in the files M2.BA6, M2.EVT, M2.LPF, M2.RCH and M2.WEL, which are the files containing the parameters for M2. Therefore, for a different groundwater model possibly having different conductivity zones, geometry, boundary conditions, etc., it will be necessary to adapt \Verb+preproc+ to that particular problem calibration. Special care must be taken in reading parameters as reported in the \emph{pre\_param.txt} file, whose order is defined by the user through the file \emph{ParamRanges.txt}. Subsequently, \Verb+mf2005+ executes MF2005 for the ``Name File'', M2.NAM. MF2005 produces a summary and the main results of the groundwater flow model (heads and global flow components) in files M2.LST, M2.BUD and M2.HED. Finally, \Verb+zonebud_hydroPSO+ calculates the balance for each specific ``budget'' zone defined in the M2.ZON file and saves the results into the M2.BAL file. \Verb+zonebud_hydroPSO+ is a modified version of the original ZB code where keyboard input is skipped by using pre-defined (hard-coded) default options.
+
+\begin{figure}[t]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=0.6\textwidth]{./figures/f03vign.pdf}
+ \caption{Interaction of \emph{hydroPSO} with MF2005/ZB (M2) and main I/O wrapper functions defined.}
+ \label{fig:f03vign}
+\end{figure}
+
+\subsection{Definition of \emph{ParamFiles.txt} and \emph{ParamRanges.txt} files\label{sec:PSOin}}
+Two basic pieces of information are required to interface M2 and \emph{hydroPSO}. First, the names and location of the (multiple) parameters to be calibrated, together with specific location and decimal positions. Second, feasible and physically meaningful parameter ranges. This information is entered in two text files, \emph{ParamFiles.txt} and \emph{ParamRanges.txt}, which must be stored in the subdirectory \Verb+./PSO.in+. Note that care must be taken in numbering and naming the parameters as they require to be consistent in both files.
+
+\begin{Verbatim}[frame=single,label=ParamFiles.txt,fontsize=\scriptsize]
+ParameterNmbr ParameterName Filename Row.Number Col.Start Col.End DecimalPlaces
+1 HK_1 pre_param.txt 2 1 20 3
+2 HK_2 pre_param.txt 3 1 20 3
+3 HK_3 pre_param.txt 4 1 20 3
+4 HK_4 pre_param.txt 5 1 20 3
+5 HK_5 pre_param.txt 6 1 20 3
+6 HK_6 pre_param.txt 7 1 20 3
+7 HK_7 pre_param.txt 8 1 20 3
+8 HK_8 pre_param.txt 9 1 20 3
+9 HK_9 pre_param.txt 10 1 20 3
+10 HK_10 pre_param.txt 11 1 20 3
+11 HK_11 pre_param.txt 12 1 20 3
+12 HK_12 pre_param.txt 13 1 20 3
+13 HK_13 pre_param.txt 14 1 20 3
+14 HK_14 pre_param.txt 15 1 20 3
+15 HK_15 pre_param.txt 16 1 20 3
+16 HK_16 pre_param.txt 17 1 20 3
+17 HK_17 pre_param.txt 18 1 20 3
+18 HK_18 pre_param.txt 19 1 20 3
+19 HK_19 pre_param.txt 20 1 20 3
+20 HK_20 pre_param.txt 21 1 20 3
+21 HK_21 pre_param.txt 22 1 20 3
+22 HK_22 pre_param.txt 23 1 20 3
+23 R_TRANSP pre_param.txt 24 1 20 4
+24 R_BSMNT pre_param.txt 25 1 20 4
+25 R_CHN pre_param.txt 26 1 20 4
+26 R_CHS pre_param.txt 27 1 20 4
+27 R_EVTR pre_param.txt 28 1 20 8
+28 R_EXTD pre_param.txt 29 1 20 4
+29 R_RECH pre_param.txt 30 1 20 4
+30 R_NOR pre_param.txt 31 1 20 4
+\end{Verbatim}
+
+\begin{Verbatim}[frame=single,label=ParamRanges.txt,fontsize=\scriptsize]
+ParameterNmbr ParameterName MinValue MaxValue
+1 HK_1 0 100
+2 HK_2 0 100
+3 HK_3 0 100
+4 HK_4 0 100
+5 HK_5 0 100
+6 HK_6 0 100
+7 HK_7 0 100
+8 HK_8 0 100
+9 HK_9 0 100
+10 HK_10 0 100
+11 HK_11 0 100
+12 HK_12 0 100
+13 HK_13 0 100
+14 HK_14 0 100
+15 HK_15 0 100
+16 HK_16 0 100
+17 HK_17 0 100
+18 HK_18 0 100
+19 HK_19 0 100
+20 HK_20 0 100
+21 HK_21 0 100
+22 HK_22 0 100
+23 R_TRANSP 0 172800
+24 R_BSMNT 0 172800
+25 R_CHN 1075 1120
+26 R_CHS 875 920
+27 R_EVTR 0 0.01
+28 R_EXTD 0 20
+29 R_RECH 0 345600
+30 R_NOR 0 86400
+\end{Verbatim}
+
+\subsection{Basic I/O Wrapper Functions\label{sec:wrappers}}
+For a successful calibration a number of observations are required for comparison against the simulated equivalents and, as such, they constitute the basis for the calculation of the objective function. For MF2005, we can define observations for a series of flow processes, e.g. specified-head flows, drains, rivers, groundwater heads, streams, etc., see \citet{mf2kobs}. For model M2, however, we employ 42 groundwater head observations contained in the M2.HOB file, which are read through a simple R function (\emph{read.hobs.R}). As explained later, \emph{read.hobs.R} is called only once and is not necessarily required. We include it to illustrate how additional observations for other flow components can be read, stored in an R object and used for calculating the objective function.
+
+\begin{Verbatim}[frame=single,label=read.hobs.R,fontsize=\scriptsize]
+read.hobs <- function(fname="M2.HOB",ncol=9,skip=2) {
+ x <- read.table(file=fname,skip=skip,header=FALSE)
+ x <- x[,ncol]
+ return(x) }
+\end{Verbatim}
+
+The main I/O function to interface \emph{hydroPSO} and M2 (MF2005/ZB) is \emph{read.hsim.R}. This function reads simulated groundwater heads, global groundwater balance components and residuals, and calculates a customized goodness-of-fit measure as objective function. For this case, we read both simulated heads and calculated residuals from the M2.LST file. Alternatively, we could read simulated groundwater heads from the M2.HED file (for specific well locations), however, this does not allow us to read in one-step the global groundwater balance components available in the M2.LST file. By directly reading the residuals as reported in the M2.LST, we avoid having to read the groundwater head observations contained in the M2.HOB file.
+
+At the same time, \emph{read.hsim.R} calculates a Gaussian likelihood measure $(L)$ using,
+
+\begin{equation}\label{eq:gauss}
+L=(2\pi)^{-N/2}\left|C\right|^{-1/2} \exp \left(-\frac{1}{2}\left(h_{sim}-h_{obs}\right)^{\emph{T}}\emph{C}^{-1}\left(h_{sim}-h_{obs}\right)\right)
+\end{equation}
+
+\noindent where $C$ is the covariance matrix of the observed system variables, $N$ is the number of observations, and the likelihood for the corresponding \emph{hydroPSO} iteration (i.e. parameter set) is obtained using a product inference function \citep[see, e.g.,][]{rojas2008}. Note that alternative formulations can be implemented as objective functions, however, the current version of \emph{hydroPSO} works \underline{only} with single-objective functions.
+
+Finally, \emph{read.hsim.R} writes the calculated likelihood, which is processed by \emph{hydroPSO} to assess the quality of the particles' positions, and the global groundwater balance components to simple ASCII files, \Verb+lik_gauss.txt+ and \Verb+WBAL.txt+, respectively.
+
+\begin{Verbatim}[frame=single,label=read.hsim.R,fontsize=\scriptsize]
+read.hsim <- function(fname="M2.LST",nobs=42) {
+sim <- rep(NA,nobs)
+lik <- NA
+out <- rep(NA,7)
+L <- 0
+x <- readLines(fname)
+stg <- " HEAD AND DRAWDOWN OBSERVATIONS"
+n <- which(x==stg)
+L <- length(n)
+
+if (L > 0) {
+ suppressWarnings(tmp <- read.table(file=fname,skip=n+3,header=FALSE,nrows=nobs,colClasses
+ =c("NULL","NULL","numeric","numeric"),fill=TRUE,na.strings="OMITTED"))
+ sim <- as.numeric(tmp[,1])
+ res1 <- as.numeric(tmp[,2])
+ na.index <- which(is.na(sim))
+
+ if ((length(sim)==nobs) & (length(na.index)==0)) {
+ # Gaussian likelihood (stdev = 10 same for MCMC analysis Rojas et al. 2010)
+ gauss1 <- 2*pi
+ gauss2 <- 10*sqrt(gauss1)
+ gauss3 <- 1/gauss2
+ gauss4 <- 2*(10^2)
+ res2 <- res1^2
+ lik1 <- gauss3*exp(-(res2/gauss4))
+ lik2 <- prod(lik1)
+ lik <- lik2^(1/nobs) #likelihood using "product" inference function (Rojas et al. 2010)
+
+ system2("zonbud_hydroPSO.exe")
+ stg <- " VOLUMETRIC BUDGET FOR ENTIRE MODEL AT END OF TIME STEP 1 IN STRESS PERIOD 1"
+ n <- which(x==stg)
+ L <- length(n)
+ if (L > 0) {
+ suppressWarnings(tmp <- read.table(file=fname,skip=n+11,header=FALSE,nrows=9,fill=TRU
+ E,stringsAsFactors=FALSE))
+ rech <-as.numeric(tmp[1,3])
+ evap <-as.numeric(tmp[8,3])
+ transp <-as.numeric(tmp[9,3])
+ out1 <- c(rech,evap,transp )
+ names(out1) <- c("rech","evap","transp")
+ out2 <- read.wbal("M2.BAL")
+ out <- c(out1, out2)
+ }
+ } else {
+ sim <- rep(NA,nobs)
+ lik <- NA
+ out <- rep(NA,7)
+ }
+}
+# Adding the results of the water balance to "WBAL.txt"
+wb.Text.file <- file("WBAL.txt","a")
+writeLines(as.character(out),wb.Text.file,sep=" ")
+writeLines("",wb.Text.file)
+close(wb.Text.file)
+write(lik,"lik_gauss.txt")
+return(sim) }
+\end{Verbatim}
+
+In principle, using \emph{read.hsim.R} and correctly defining the \emph{ParamFiles.txt} file, should suffice for interfacing \emph{hydroPSO} and M2 (MF2005/ZB). However, to consider alternative ``goodness-of-fit'' measures and/or observations might require using \emph{read.hobs.R}.
+
+In addition, for this tutorial we develop an R script to read the results from the ZB program. \emph{read.wbal.R} reads the results for 4 ``budget'' zones defined in the M2.ZON file, and saved in the M2.BAL file by \Verb+zonebud_hydroPSO+. These flows are recharge due to deep fissures in basement rocks (\Verb+rechdeep+), outflows at the aquifer's southern cross-section (\Verb+cgordo+), (point) southernmost incoming lateral flux (\Verb+chaca+), and outflows to western aquifers (\Verb+noria+). These results are stored in an R object (\Verb+out+), which is saved in the WBAL.txt file by the \emph{read.hsim.R} script.
+
+\begin{Verbatim}[frame=single,label=read.wbal.R,fontsize=\scriptsize]
+read.wbal <- function(fname="M2.BAL") {
+if (length(readLines(fname)) > 34 ) {
+ suppressWarnings(rechdeep <- as.numeric(read.table(file=fname,skip=34,header=FALSE,nrows=
+ 1,colClasses=c("NULL","NULL","numeric"),fill=TRUE)))
+ suppressWarnings(cgordo <- as.numeric(read.table(file=fname,skip=42,header=FALSE,nrows=1,
+ colClasses=c("NULL","NULL","NULL","NULL","NULL","numeric"),fill=TRUE)))
+ noria <- NA
+ chaca <- NA
+
+ x <- readLines(fname)
+ stg <- " Flow Budget for Zone 5 at Time Step 1 of Stress Period 1"
+ n <- which(x==stg)
+ L <- length(n)
+ if (L > 0) noria <- read.table(file=fname,skip=n+18,header=FALSE,nrows=1,colClasses=c("NU
+ LL","NULL","numeric"),fill=TRUE)
+
+ stg <- " Flow Budget for Zone 16 at Time Step 1 of Stress Period 1"
+ n <- which(x==stg)
+ L <- length(n)
+ if (L > 0) chaca <- read.table(file=fname,skip=n+8,header=FALSE,nrows=1,colClasses=c("NUL
+ L","NULL","numeric"),fill=TRUE)
+ out <- c(rechdeep,noria,cgordo,chaca)
+} else out <- rep(NA,4)
+names(out) <- c("rechdeep","noria","cgordo","chaca")
+return(out) }
+\end{Verbatim}
+
+\subsection{Implementation Details and Results of the Calibration\label{sec:resultsmf2005}}
+\begin{enumerate}
+\item Once \Verb+ParamFiles.txt+ and \Verb+ParamRanges.txt+ files have been created, they need to be stored in the \Verb+./PSO.in+ directory within the folder containing the main MF2005 model files, which for this tutorial corresponds to \Verb+./MF2005+.
+
+\item Several auxiliary files (described below) are included in \Verb+./MF2005+:
+
+\begin{Verbatim}[frame=single,label=Auxiliary Files in MF2005,fontsize=\small]
+hydroPSO-MF2005.R -> Main R script to run hydroPSO
+lik_gauss.txt -> ASCII file containing the likelihood value
+pre_param.txt -> ASCII file containing the updated parameters
+TOY_LPF_M2.txt -> Template for the LPF package used by preproc
+TOY_RCH_M2.txt -> Template for the RCH package used by preproc
+\end{Verbatim}
+
+\item The setup for the problem as well as all the options implemented to calibrate the groundwater flow model are defined in the \Verb+hydroPSO-MF2005.R+ script. By default all results from \emph{hydroPSO} are saved into the \Verb+PSO.out+ folder, however, this can be redefined by using the \Verb+drty.out+ argument.
+
+\begin{Verbatim}[frame=single,label=hydroPSO-MF2005.R,fontsize=\scriptsize]
+####################################################################################
+## Example to interface MODFLOW2005 and ZONE BUDGET with hydroPSO. This script #
+## allows hydroPSO to take control of the execution of MODFLOW2005 and ZONEBUDGET #
+## through the definition of a batch file (run_me.bat) and a series of simple I/O R#
+## scripts #
+## #
+## Part of the hydroPSO R package #
+## http://www.rforge.net/hydroPSO/ http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/hydroPSO #
+## Copyright 2011-2012 Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini & Rodrigo Rojas #
+## Distributed under GPL 2 or later #
+## #
+## Created by Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini and Rodrigo Rojas. 26-Oct-2011 #
+## Last saved: 13-Feb-2012 #
+####################################################################################
+
+###Loading required libraries
+library(hydroPSO)
+library(hydroTSM)
+library(hydroGOF)
+
+###Definition of working directory: input, output and model files paths
+model.drty <- "~/MF2005"
+setwd(model.drty )
+
+###Customized I/O functions (R scripts) to interface MF2005 with hydroPSO
+source("read.hobs.R")
+source("read.hsim.R")
+source("read.wbal.R")
+source("read.lik.R")
+
+###Goodness-of-fit, either customized or pre-defined from hydroGOF
+gof.FUN <- "read.lik"
+gof.FUN.args <- list()
+
+###Getting the OBSERVATIONS (not strictly necessary for this example)
+obs.fname <- "M2.HOB"
+obs.fname <- paste(file.path(model.drty),"/",obs.fname,sep="")
+obs <- read.hobs(fname=obs.fname)
+
+###MAIN model function
+model.FUN.args=list(
+ model.drty=model.drty,
+ param.files=paste(model.drty,"/PSO.in/ParamFiles.txt",sep=""),
+ exe.fname="run_me.bat",
+ ###Function for reading the simulated equivalents
+ out.FUN="read.hsim",
+ out.FUN.args=list(
+ fname="M2.LST",
+ nobs=42),
+ ###Function assessing the simulated equivalents against the observations
+ gof.FUN=gof.FUN,
+ gof.FUN.args=gof.FUN.args,
+ obs=obs
+) ###END model.FUN.args
+
+###MAIN PSO ALGORITHM
+###For hydroPSO fine-tuning parameters, see Zambrano-Bigiarini and Rojas,2012
+set.seed(1111)
+hydroPSO(
+ fn="hydromod",
+ model.FUN="hydromod",
+ model.FUN.args=model.FUN.args,
+ method="pso",
+ control=list(
+ MinMax="max",
+ npart=70,
+ maxit=3000,
+ reltol=1e-10,
+ use.IW=TRUE,IW.type="linear",IW.w=1/(2*log(2)),IW.exp=1,
+ use.TVc1=TRUE,TVc1.type="non-linear",TVc1.rng=c(1.28,1.05),TVc1.exp=1.5,
+ drty.out="PSO.70p3000i.rand_TVc1_TVlambda.out",
+ REPORT=50
+ ) ###END control options
+) ###END MAIN hydroPSO ALGORITHM
+\end{Verbatim}
+
+In the \Verb+hydroPSO-MF2005.R+ script we use \Verb+read.hobs.R+ to read groundwater head observations from M2.HOB, \Verb+read.hsim.R+ to read simulated equivalents and calculate a likelihood measure, \Verb+read.wbal.R+ to read groundwater balance components defined in the \Verb+M2.ZON+ file, and \Verb+read.lik.R+ to read the one-line ASCII file containing the likelihood measure. When a model code other than pre-defined test functions coded in \emph{hydroPSO} is used, the \Verb+fn+ argument \textbf{must} take the value \Verb+hydromod+. The latter will indicate \emph{hydroPSO} to expect for external files containing the model executable(s), input(s) and output files. We use the PSO algorithm (\Verb+method="pso"+) to maximize (\Verb+MinMax="max"+) the likelihood calculated by \Verb+read.hsim.R+. For that purpose, we employ a swarm of 70 particles (\Verb+npart=70+) and a maximum number of iterations equals to 3000 (\Verb+maxit=3000+). A constant (\Verb+IW.type="linear"+) inertia weight (\Verb+use.IW=TRUE+) value of $1/(2*log(2))$ (\Verb+IW.w+), a non-linear time-variant cognition coefficient ($c_1$) between [1.28,1.05] with exponent (\Verb+TVc1.exp=1.5+), and a linear (\Verb+TVlambda.type="linear"+) time-variant lambda factor (velocity clamping factor) (\Verb+use.TVlambda=TRUE+) between [1.0,0.5] are used for fine-tuning the algorithm. As model arguments we define \Verb+run_me.bat+ as the main code running the (sequence of) model(s) together with the main model outputs (\Verb+out.FUN="read.hsim"+) and the likelihood of that particular parameter set (\Verb+gof.FUN="read.lik"+). Finally, we save results in folder \Verb+PSO.70p3000i.rand_TVc1_TVlambda.out+.
+
+\item Here, we illustrate the use of individual \emph{hydroPSO} ``reading'' and ``plotting'' functions to obtain customized graphs. First, we set up the corresponding directory with the results of the calibration:
+
+<<eval=FALSE>>=
+setwd("~/MF2005/PSO.70p3000i.rand_Tvc1_TVlambda.out")
+@
+
+\item Plotting the evolution of the global optimum:
+<<eval=FALSE>>=
+read_convergence(do.png=TRUE)
+@
+
+Figure~\ref{fig:convmeas-mf2005} shows the evolution of the Gaussian likelihood (customized goodness-of-fit measure) as a function of the number of iterations. In general, we see that there is an initial exploratory phase of ca. 500 iterations where significant improvements in the Gbest are found. After iteration nr. 1000, Gbest stabilizes and the NSR seems to reduce oscillation converging toward an attraction zone.
+
+\item Plotting the evolution of the 30 parameters. First, we read the file \Verb+Particles.txt+ and then we call function \Verb+plot_ParamsPerIter+ for plotting:
+
+<<eval=FALSE>>=
+parts <- read_params(file="Particles.txt",param.cols=
+ 4:33,plot=FALSE)
+plot_ParamsPerIter(parts[["params"]])
+@
+
+Figure~\ref{fig:paramsperrun-mf2005} shows the result from the previous command lines. In this figure we see the evolution of the parameters of M2 as a function of the number of model evaluations (i.e. 70 particles $\times$ 3000 iterations). We see that several parameters show a relatively insensitive behaviour (e.g. HK\_6, HK\_10-15, HK\_21, R\_CHN, R\_TRANSP, R\_EVTR, R\_EXTD), whereas others show a clear zone of attraction. These results are in full agreement with the findings by \citet{rojas2010a}.
+
+\item From the previous item it is clear that not all parameters are sensitive. So, here we plot sensitive parameters \underline{only} using the options of the \Verb+plot_results()+ \emph{hydroPSO} function:
+
+<<eval=FALSE>>=
+plot_results(drty.out=getwd(),MinMax="max",do.png=TRUE,
+ param.names=c("HK_2","R_CHS","R_NOR","HK_19",
+ "HK_16","R_RECH","R_BSMNT","R_CHN","R_TRANSP",
+ "R_EVTR","R_EXTD","HK_1"))
+@
+
+This command line will produce several figures summarizing the results of the calibration for M2 (see, e.g., Section~\ref{sec:calibswat2005}). Figure~\ref{fig:dottyplots-mf2005} shows dotty-plots for the subset of sensitive parameters identified in Figure~\ref{fig:paramsperrun-mf2005}. Here, we see clear zones of attraction for some parameters (e.g. HK\_2, R\_CHS, and R\_RECH), whereas others show slightly sensitive (non-symmetric) likelihood response surfaces. Figure~\ref{fig:3Ddottyplots-mf2005}, in turn, shows (projected) 2D dotty plots among parameters highlighting non-linear interactions.
+
+Figure~\ref{fig:ecdfs-mf2005} shows the ECDs for the sensitive parameters of M2, where the most likely parameter value is highlighted. Finally, Figure~\ref{fig:simvsobs_corr-mf2005} shows a good correspondence between the best simulated and the observed groundwater heads.
+
+\item At the same time, it is possible to analyse the results defining a ``behavioural'' threshold for the full set of simulated parameters. Here, we select all simulations with a Gaussian Likelihood greater than 3.8$\times10^{-2}$:
+
+<<eval=FALSE>>=
+plot_results(drty.out=getwd(),MinMax="max",do.png=TRUE,
+ param.names=c("HK_2","R_CHS","R_NOR","HK_19",
+ "HK_16","R_RECH","R_BSMNT","R_CHN","R_TRANSP",
+ "R_EVTR","R_EXTD","HK_1"),beh.thr=3.8e-2)
+@
+
+Figures~\ref{fig:simvsobs_quant1-mf2005-038} and~\ref{fig:simvsobs_quant2-mf2005-038} show the full ECDFs for the simulated groundwater heads at 42 observation wells, highlighting the groundwater head observations and the percentage bias for the quantile 50. Figure~\ref{fig:3Ddottyplots-mf2005-038} show the resulting plots for the (projected) 2D interaction among parameters, where a clearer picture of the non-linear interactions for the zone of attraction can be seen for several parameters (e.g. R\_RECH vs. R\_NOR and R\_RECH vs. HK\_2). At the same time, Figure~\ref{fig:ecdfs-mf2005-038} shows the resulting ECDFs for a behavioural threshold of 3.8$\times10^{-2}$.
+
+\end{enumerate}
+
+\clearpage
+
+\begin{sidewaysfigure}[!ht]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./figures/MF2005/ConvergenceMeasures.png}
+ \caption{Evolution of the Global Optimum (GOptim) and the Normalized Swarm Radius (NSR) versus iteration number for the calibration of the Ega headwater catchment.}
+ \label{fig:convmeas-mf2005}
+\end{sidewaysfigure}
+
+\clearpage
+
+\begin{sidewaysfigure}[!ht]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./figures/MF2005/Params_ValuesPerRun.png}
+ \caption{Convergence of the different MF2005 parameters as a function of the iteration number.}
+ \label{fig:paramsperrun-mf2005}
+\end{sidewaysfigure}
+
+\clearpage
+
+\begin{sidewaysfigure}[!ht]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./figures/MF2005/Params_DottyPlots.png}
+ \caption{Dotty-plots for the sensitive parameters obtained from Figure~\ref{fig:paramsperrun-mf2005} for M2. Vertical and horizontal coloured lines show the location of the highest goodness-of-fit value (Gaussian Likelihood).}
+ \label{fig:dottyplots-mf2005}
+\end{sidewaysfigure}
+
+\clearpage
+
+\begin{sidewaysfigure}[!ht!]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./figures/MF2005/Params_dp3d.png}
+ \caption{2-dimensional projected dotty-plots highlighting the interaction among the first seven sensitive parameters obtained from Figure~\ref{fig:paramsperrun-mf2005} for M2.}
+ \label{fig:3Ddottyplots-mf2005}
+\end{sidewaysfigure}
+
+\clearpage
+
+\begin{sidewaysfigure}[!ht]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./figures/MF2005/Params_ECDFs.png}
+ \caption{Empirical Cumulative Distribution Functions (ECDFs) for the sensitive parameters obtained from Figure~\ref{fig:paramsperrun-mf2005} for M2. Vertical and horizontal grey dashed-line indicate the location of a user-defined percentile.}
+ \label{fig:ecdfs-mf2005}
+\end{sidewaysfigure}
+
+\clearpage
+
+\begin{sidewaysfigure}[!ht]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=0.7\textwidth]{./figures/MF2005/ModelOut_BestSim_vs_Obs.png}
+ \caption{Scatter plot of best simulated versus observed groundwater heads at 42 observation wells for M2.}
+ \label{fig:simvsobs_corr-mf2005}
+\end{sidewaysfigure}
+
+\clearpage
+
+\begin{sidewaysfigure}[!ht]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./figures/MF2005/ModelOut_Quantiles-038.png}
+ \caption{ECDFs for groundwater heads at 42 observation wells for M2. Vertical dashed-line represents the observed value.}
+ \label{fig:simvsobs_quant1-mf2005-038}
+\end{sidewaysfigure}
+
+\clearpage
+
+\begin{sidewaysfigure}[!ht]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./figures/MF2005/ModelOut_Quantiles2-038.png}
+ \caption{ECDFs for groundwater heads at 42 observation wells for M2. Vertical dashed-line represents the observed value.}
+ \label{fig:simvsobs_quant2-mf2005-038}
+\end{sidewaysfigure}
+
+\clearpage
+
+\begin{sidewaysfigure}[!ht]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./figures/MF2005/Params_dp3d-038.png}
+ \caption{Idem as Figure~\ref{fig:3Ddottyplots-mf2005} with a ``behavioural'' threshold of 3.8$\times10^{-2}$.}
+ \label{fig:3Ddottyplots-mf2005-038}
+\end{sidewaysfigure}
+
+\clearpage
+
+\begin{sidewaysfigure}[!ht]
+ \centering
+ \noindent\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./figures/MF2005/Params_ECDFs-038.png}
+ \caption{Idem as Figure~\ref{fig:ecdfs-mf2005} with a ``behavioural'' threshold of 3.8$\times10^{-2}$.}
+ \label{fig:ecdfs-mf2005-038}
+\end{sidewaysfigure}
+
+\clearpage
+
+\section{Closing Remarks}
+\begin{enumerate}
+\item This tutorial aimed at providing a general overview of the capabilities of the \emph{hydroPSO} R package. In particular, we illustrated how to calibrate two model codes commonly used in hydrology-related applications, SWAT-2005 and MODFLOW-2005. Given the flexibility of \emph{hydroPSO}, we believe this calibration/optimisation engine can be applied to a wider range of environmental models requiring some form of parameter estimation.
+
+\item The version of \emph{hydroPSO} used in this tutorial does not take advantage of multi-core machines nor from parallelized platforms. We hope in the next future to add parallel capabilities to \emph{hydroPSO} to benefit from modern architectures and alleviate the computational burden.
+
+\item In \emph{hydroPSO} we consider \underline{only} single-objective functions for optimisation. Again, we hope in the next future to include multi-objective functionalities to the main algorithm.
+
+\item Finally, investigation on improvements to the canonical PSO algorithm is one of the most dynamic and active research areas in Particle Swarm literature. Therefore, we are particularly interested in constantly updating the \emph{hydroPSO} package according to the most relevant innovations in this research area.
+
+\end{enumerate}
+
+
+\clearpage
+%##################################
+This tutorial was built under:
+
+<<echo=FALSE>>=
+sessionInfo()$platform
+sessionInfo()$R.version$version.string
+paste("hydroPSO", sessionInfo()$otherPkgs$hydroPSO$Version)
+@
+
+\clearpage
+
+\singlespacing
+\addcontentsline{toc}{section}{References}
+\bibliographystyle{agufull08}
+\bibliography{references}
+
+<<wrapup>>=
+setwd(CUR_WD)
+@
+% The previous 3 lines ware neccessary to avoid the following error: "Error in driver$finish(drobj) : the output file 'MyDocument.tex' has disappeared". From: http://r.789695.n4.nabble.com/Sweave-problem-after-R-update-version-td4566044.html
+
+\end{document}
diff --git a/inst/vignette/references.bib b/inst/vignette/references.bib
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..d334075
--- /dev/null
+++ b/inst/vignette/references.bib
@@ -0,0 +1,32507 @@
+% This file was created with JabRef 2.7.2.
+% Encoding: UTF8
+
+@ARTICLE{vanulden2006,
+ author = {{van Ulden}, A. and {van Oldenborgh}, G.},
+ title = {{Large-scale atmospheric circulation biases and changes in global
+ climate model simulations and their importance for climate change
+ in Central Europe}},
+ journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {6},
+ pages = {863--881},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {The quality of global sea level pressure patterns has been assessed
+ for simulations by 23 coupled climate models. Most models showed
+ high pattern correlations. With respect to the explained spatial
+ variance, many models showed serious large-scale deficiencies, especially
+ at mid-latitudes. Five models performed well at all latitudes and
+ for each month of the year. Three models had a reasonable skill.
+ We selected the five models with the best pressure patterns for a
+ more detailed assessment of their simulations of the climate in Central
+ Europe. We analysed observations and simulations of monthly mean
+ geostrophic flow indices and of monthly mean temperature and precipitation.
+ We used three geostrophic flow indices: the west component and south
+ component of the geostrophic wind at the surface and the geostrophic
+ vorticity. We found that circulation biases were important, and affected
+ precipitation in particular. Apart from these circulation biases,
+ the models showed other biases in temperature and precipitation,
+ which were for some models larger than the circulation induced biases.
+ For the 21st century the five models simulated quite different changes
+ in circulation, precipitation and temperature. Precipitation changes
+ appear to be primarily caused by circulation changes. Since the models
+ show widely different circulation changes, especially in late summer,
+ precipitation changes vary widely between the models as well. Some
+ models simulate severe drying in late summer, while one model simulates
+ significant precipitation increases in late summer. With respect
+ to the mean temperature the circulation changes were important, but
+ not dominant. However, changes in the distribution of monthly mean
+ temperatures, do show large indirect influences of circulation changes.
+ Especially in late summer, two models simulate very strong warming
+ of warm months, which can be attributed to severe summer drying in
+ the simulations by these models. The models differ also significantly
+ in the simulated warming of cold winter months. Finally, the models
+ simulate rather different changes in North Atlantic sea surface temperature,
+ which is likely to impact on changes in temperature and precipitation.
+ These results imply that several important aspects of climate change
+ in Central Europe are highly uncertain. Other aspects of the simulated
+ climate change appear to be more robust. All models simulate significant
+ warming all year round and an increase in precipitation in the winter
+ half-year.},
+ doi = {10.5194/acp-6-863-2006},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.02.07}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{telinde+al2010,
+ author = {{te Linde}, A. and Aerts, J. and Bakker, A. and Kwadijk, J.},
+ title = {Simulating low--probability peak discharges for the {R}hine basin
+ using resampled climate modeling data},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {46},
+ pages = {W03512},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {Climate change will increase winter precipitation, and in combination
+ with earlier snowmelt it will cause a shift in peak discharge in
+ the Rhine basin from spring to winter. This will probably lead to
+ an increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme floods. In
+ this paper we aim to enhance the simulation of future low-probability
+ flood peak events in the Rhine basin using different climate change
+ scenarios, and downscaling methods. We use the output of a regional
+ climate model (RCM) and a weather generator to create long, resampled
+ time series (1000 years) of climate change scenarios as input for
+ hydrological (daily) and hydrodynamic (hourly) modeling. We applied
+ this approach to three parallel modeling chains, where the transformation
+ method from different resampled RCM outputs to the hydrological model
+ varied (delta change approach, direct output, and bias-corrected
+ output). On the basis of numerous 1000 year model simulations, the
+ results indicate a basin-wide increase in peak discharge in 2050
+ of 8%--17% for probabilities between 1/10 and 1/1250 years. Furthermore,
+ the results show that increasing the length of the climate data series
+ using a weather generator reduced the statistical uncertainty when
+ estimating low-probability flood peak events from 13% to 3%. We further
+ conclude that bias-corrected direct RCM output is to be preferred
+ over the delta change approach because it provides insight into geographical
+ differences in discharge projections under climate change. Also,
+ bias-corrected RCM output can simulate changes in the variance of
+ temperature and rainfall and in the number of precipitation days,
+ as changes in temporal structure are expected under climate change.
+ These added values are of major importance when identifying future
+ problem areas due to climate change and when planning potential adaptation
+ measures},
+ doi = {10.1029/2009WR007707},
+ file = {:Simulating low-probability peak discharges for the Rhine basinf using resampled climate modeling data (te Linde et al. 2010).pdf:PDF},
+ tags = {Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{vangriensvenbauwens2003,
+ author = {{van Griensven}, A. and Bauwens, W.},
+ title = {Multiobjective autocalibration for semidistributed water quality
+ models},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {39},
+ pages = {1348},
+ number = {12},
+ abstract = {SWAT is a simulator that integrates catchment and river water quantity
+ and quality processes. The integration leads to a high number of
+ model parameters, which complicates model calibration. As the model
+ is semidistributed, the water quality and quantity variables at different
+ observation sites inside the catchment can, and should, be used during
+ this process, in order to use all the available information. A simultaneous
+ use of all the different observed series and a high number of free
+ parameters, however, creates a complex mathematical problem. Existing
+ methods such as Pareto-optimization are practically very difficult,
+ if not impossible, to implement. We present therefore a new methodology
+ that reduces the many objective functions to a single global criterion
+ in an objective way, excluding the weighting problem. The global
+ criterion then is minimized using a global search algorithm, i.e.,
+ the shuffled complex evolution method. The methodology is applied
+ on the Dender River basin (Belgium), a heavily modified river basin
+ with irregular flows.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2003WR002284},
+ keywords = {autocalibration, catchment, modeling, river, water quality, AUTOMATIC
+ CALIBRATION, PARAMETER-ESTIMATION, GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION, MULTIPLE
+ OBJECTIVES, HYDROLOGIC-MODELS, BIRKENES MODEL, METHODOLOGY},
+ tags = {SWAT, Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{vanulden+al2007,
+ author = {{van Ulden}, A. and Lenderink, G. and {van den Hurk}, B. and {van
+ Meijgaard}, E.},
+ title = {{Circulation statistics and climate change in Central Europe: PRUDENCE
+ simulations and observations}},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {81},
+ pages = {179--192},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {PRUDENCE simulations of the climate in Central Europe are analysed
+ with respect to mean temperature, mean precipitation and three monthly
+ mean geostrophic circulation indices. The three global models show
+ important circulation biases in the control climate, in particular
+ in the strength of the west-circulations in winter and summer. The
+ nine regional models inherit much of the circulation biases from
+ their host model, especially in winter. In summer, the regional models
+ show a larger spread in circulation statistics, depending on nesting
+ procedures and other model characteristics. Simulated circulation
+ biases appear to have a significant inluence on simulated temperature
+ and precipitation. The PRUDENCE ensemble appears to be biased towards
+ warmer and wetter than observed circulations in winter, and towards
+ warmer and dryer circulations in summer. A2-scenario simulations
+ show important circulation changes, which have a significant impact
+ on changes in the distributions of monthly mean temperature and precipitation.
+ It is likely that interactions between land–surface processes and
+ atmospheric circulation play an important role in the simulated changes
+ in the summer climate in Central Europe.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10584-006-9212-5},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.02.02}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{vangriensvenmeixner2007,
+ author = {{van Griensven}, A. and Meixner, T.},
+ title = {A global and efficient multi-objective auto-calibration and uncertainty
+ estimation method for water quality catchment models},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydroinformatics},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {9},
+ pages = {277--291},
+ number = {4},
+ note = {Description of the PARASOL algorithm, which provides parameter uncertainty
+ (ONLY) without being based on assumptions on prior parameter distributions
+ for the sampling strategy. They suggest to use Chi2 statistics, insted
+ of Bayesian ones, because they account for the number of freee parameters,
+ giving more realistic results and a NARROWER confidence region.},
+ abstract = {Catchment water quality models have many parameters, several output
+ variables and a complex structure leading to multiple minima in the
+ objective function. General uncertainty/optimization methods based
+ on random sampling (e.g. GLUE) or local methods (e.g. PEST) are often
+ not applicable for theoretical or practical reasons. This paper presents
+ "ParaSol", a method that performs optimization and uncertainty analysis
+ for complex models such as distributed water quality models. Optimization
+ is done by adapting the Shuffled Complex Evolution algorithm (SCE-UA)
+ to account for multi-objective problems and for large numbers of
+ parameters. The simulations performed by the SCE-UA are used further
+ for uncertainty analysis and thereby focus the uncertainty analysis
+ on solutions near the optimum/optima. Two methods have been developed
+ that select "good" results out of these simulations based on an objective
+ threshold. The first method is based on chi(2) statistics to delineate
+ the confidence regions around the optimum/optima and the second method
+ uses Bayesian statistics to define high probability regions. The
+ ParaSol method was applied to a simple bucket model and to a Soil
+ and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model Of Honey Creek, OH, USA. The
+ bucket model case showed the success of the method in finding the
+ minimum and the applicability of the statistics under importance
+ sampling. Both cases showed that the confidence regions are very
+ small when the chi(2) statistics are used and even smaller when using
+ the Bayesian statistics. By comparing the ParaSol uncertainty results
+ to those derived from 500,000 Monte Carlo simulations it was shown
+ that the SCE-UA sampling used for ParaSol was more effective and
+ efficient, as none of the Monte Carlo samples were close to the minimum
+ or even within the confidence region defined by ParaSol.},
+ doi = {doi:10.2166/hydro.2007.104},
+ keywords = {auto-calibration, model, river basin, water quality, PARASOL, SWAT},
+ tags = {Calibration, Uncertainty, SWAT},
+ url = {http://www.iwaponline.com/jh/009/jh0090277.htm}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{vangriensven+al2006,
+ author = {{van Griensven}, A. and Meixner, T. and Grunwald, S. and Bishop,
+ T. and Diluzio, M. and Srinivasan, R.},
+ title = {A global sensitivity analysis tool for the parameters of multi-variable
+ catchment models},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {324},
+ pages = {10--23},
+ number = {1--4},
+ abstract = {Over-parameterisation is a well-known and often described problem
+ in hydrological models, especially for distributed models. Therefore,
+ methods to reduce the number of parameters via sensitivity analysis
+ are important for the efficient use of these models. This paper describes
+ a novel sampling strategy that is a combination of latin-hypercube
+ and one-factor-at-a-time sampling that allows a global sensitivity
+ analysis for a long list of parameters with only a limited number
+ of model runs. The method is illustrated with an application of the
+ water flow and water quality parameters of the distributed water
+ quality program SWAT, considering flow, suspended sediment, total
+ nitrogen, total phosphorus, nitrate and ammonia outputs at several
+ locations in the Upper North Bosque River catchment in Texas and
+ the Sandusky River catchment in Ohio. The application indicates that
+ the methodology works successfully. The results also show that hydrologic
+ parameters are dominant in controlling water quality predictions.
+ Finally, the sensitivity results are not transferable between basins
+ and thus the analysis needs to be conducted separately for each study
+ catchment.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.09.008},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.10.10}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{vangriensven+al2008,
+ author = {{van Griensven},A. and Meixner, T. and Srinivasan, R. and Grunwald,
+ S.},
+ title = {Fit-for-purpose analysis of uncertainty using split-sampling evaluations},
+ journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {53},
+ pages = {1090--1103},
+ abstract = {Support for this work was provided by the National Science Foundation
+ through a CAREER award to T. Meixner (EAR-0094312). The research
+ on the Sandusky River catchment was supported by the Florida Agricultural
+ Experiment Station and approved for publication.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2003WR002540,.},
+ keywords = {uncertainty, modelling, fit-for-purpose, catchment, RAINFALL-RUNOFF
+ MODELS, IMPROVED PARAMETER INFERENCE, CATCHMENT MODELS, AUTOMATIC
+ CALIBRATION, SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS, VARIABILITY, VALIDATION, MULTIPLE},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, SWAT}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{deRoo2001,
+ author = {{de Roo}, A. and Odijk, M. and Shcmuck, G. and Koster, E. and Lucieer,
+ A.},
+ title = {Assessing the effects of land use changes on floods in the {M}euse
+ and {O}der catchments},
+ journal = {Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Part B: Hydrology, Oceans and
+ Atmosphere},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {26},
+ pages = {593--599},
+ number = {7--8},
+ abstract = {Recently, dramatic flooding occurred in several regions of the world.
+ To investigate the causes of the flooding and the influence of land
+ use, soil characteristics and antecedent catchment moisture conditions,
+ the distributed catchment model LISFLOOD has been developed. LISFLOOD
+ simulates runoff in large river basins. Two transnational European
+ river basins are used to test and validate the model: the Meuse catchment
+ (France, Belgium, Germany and The Netherlands) and the Oder basin
+ (The Czech Republic, Poland and Germany). In the Meuse and Oder catchment,
+ land use change information over the past 200 years is processed
+ at the moment. The LISFLOOD simulation model is used to simulate
+ the effects of these land use changes on floods. Some influences
+ of land use and vegetation on the water balance are clear, such as
+ the changing vegetation cover (leaf area index) which will influence
+ evapotranspiration. However, not so much is known about the influences
+ of vegetation on soil properties, which influence infiltration, soil
+ water redistribution, throughflow and groundwater recharge.},
+ doi = {10.1016/S1464-1909(01)00054-5},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.08.10}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{deRoo2000,
+ author = {{de Roo}, A. and Wesseling, C. and {van Deuren}, W.},
+ title = {Physically based river basin modelling within a GIS: the {LISFLOOD}
+ model},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2000},
+ volume = {14},
+ pages = {1981--1992},
+ number = {11--12},
+ abstract = {Although many geographical information systems (GISs) are very advanced
+ in data processing and display, current GIS are not capable of physically
+ based modelling. Especially, simulating transport of water and pollutants
+ through landscapes is a problem in a GIS environment. A number of
+ specific routing methods are needed in a GIS for hydrologic modelling,
+ amongst these are the numerical solutions of the Saint-Venant equations,
+ such as the kinematic wave approximation for transport of surface
+ water in a landscape. The PCRaster Spatial Modelling language is
+ a GIS capable of dynamic modelling. It has been extended recently
+ with a kinematic wave approximation simulation tool to allow for
+ physically based water flow modelling. The LISFLOOD model is an example
+ of a physically based model written using the PCRaster GIS environment.
+ The LISFLOOD model simulates river discharge in a drainage basin
+ as a function of spatial data on topography, soils and land cover.
+ Although hydrological modelling capabilities have largely increased,
+ there is still a need for development of other routing methods, such
+ as a diffusion wave.},
+ doi = {10.1002/1099-1085(20000815/30)14:11/12<1981::AID-HYP49>3.0.CO;2-F},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.07.29}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{vanmeijgaard+al2008,
+ author = {{van Meijgaard}, E. and {van Ulft}, L. and {van de Berg}, W. and
+ Bosveld, F. and {van den Hurk}, B. and Lenderink, G. and Siebesma,
+ A.},
+ title = {{The KNMI regional atmospheric climate model RACMO, version 2.1}},
+ institution = {KNMI},
+ year = {2008},
+ number = {TR-302},
+ address = {{De Bilt, The Netherlands}},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.01.12}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{vandenberghengelbrecht2006,
+ author = {{van den Bergh}, F. and Engelbrecht, A.},
+ title = {A study of particle swarm optimization particle trajectories},
+ journal = {Information Sciences},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {176},
+ pages = {937--971},
+ number = {8},
+ abstract = {Particle swarm optimization (PSO) has shown to be an efficient, robust
+ and simple optimization algorithm. Most of the PSO studies are empirical,
+ with only a few theoretical analyses that concentrate on understanding
+ particle trajectories. These theoretical studies concentrate mainly
+ on simplified PSO systems. This paper overviews current theoretical
+ studies, and extend these studies to investigate particle trajectories
+ for general swarms to include the influence of the inertia term.
+ The paper also provides a formal proof that each particle converges
+ to a stable point. An empirical analysis of multi-dimensional stochastic
+ particles is also presented. Experimental results are provided to
+ support the conclusions drawn from the theoretical findings},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.ins.2005.02.003},
+ tags = {PSO, Calibration}
+}
+
+@BOOK{demarsily1986,
+ title = {Quantitative hydrogeology -- {G}roundwater hydrology for engineers},
+ publisher = {Academic Press},
+ year = {1986},
+ author = {{de Marsily}, G.},
+ pages = {440},
+ address = {San Diego},
+ edition = {First},
+ abstract = {This book attempts to combine two separate themes: a description of
+ one of the links in the chain of the water cycle inside the earth's
+ crust i.e., the subsurface flow; and the quantification of the various
+ types of this flow, obtained by applying the principles of fluid
+ mechanics in porous media. The first part is the more descriptive,
+ and geological of the two. It deals with the concept of water resources,
+ which then leads us on to other links in the cycle: rainfall, infiltration,
+ evaporation. runoff, and surface water resources. The second part
+ is necessary in order to quantify ground water resources. It points
+ the way to other applications, such as solutions to civil engineering
+ problems including drainage and compaction; and transport problems
+ in porous media, including aquifer pollution by miscible fluids,
+ multiphase flow of immiscible fluids, and heat transfer in porous
+ media, i.e., geothermal problems. However, the qualitative and the
+ quantitative aspects are not treated separately but combined and
+ blended together, just as geology and hydrology are woven together
+ in hydrogeology.},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{demarsily2005,
+ author = {{de Marsily}, G. and Delay, F. and Gon\ccalv\'es, J. and Renard,
+ P. and Teles, V. and Violette, S.},
+ title = {Dealing with spatial heterogeneity},
+ journal = {Hydrogeology Journal},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {13},
+ pages = {161--183},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {Heterogeneity can be dealt with by defining homogeneous equivalent
+ properties, known as averaging, or by trying to describe the spatial
+ variability of the rock properties from geologic observations and
+ local measurements. The techniques available for these descriptions
+ are mostly continuous Geostatistical models, or discontinuous facies
+ models such as the Boolean, Indicator or Gaussian-Threshold models
+ and the Markov chain model. These facies models are better suited
+ to treating issues of rock strata connectivity, e.g. buried high
+ permeability channels or low permeability barriers, which greatly
+ affect flow and, above all, transport in aquifers. Genetic models
+ provide new ways to incorporate more geology into the facies description,
+ an approach that has been well developed in the oil industry, but
+ not enough in hydrogeology. The conclusion is that future work should
+ be focused on improving the facies models, comparing them, and designing
+ new in situ testing procedures (including geophysics) that would
+ help identify the facies geometry and properties. A world-wide catalog
+ of aquifer facies geometry and properties, which could combine site
+ genesis and description with methods used to assess the system, would
+ be of great value for practical applications.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10040-004-0432-3},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.12.03}
+}
+
+@INPROCEEDINGS{demarsily2000,
+ author = {{de Marsily}, G., Delhomme, J. and {Coudrain-Ribstein}, A. and, Lavenue,
+ A.},
+ title = {Four decades of inverse problems in hydrogeology},
+ booktitle = {Theory, modelling and field investigation in hydrogeology: {A} special
+ volume in honour of Shlomo P. Neuman's 60th birthday},
+ year = {2000},
+ editor = {Zhang, D. and Winter, C.},
+ pages = {1--17},
+ address = {Boulder, Colorado},
+ publisher = {Geological Society of America Special paper 348},
+ note = {demarsily2000},
+ abstract = {We review the main stages of the evolution of ideas and methods for
+ solving the inverse problem in hydrogeology; i.e., the identification
+ of the transmissivity field in single-phase flow from piezometric
+ data, in mainly steady-state and, occasionally, transient flow conditions.
+ We first define the data needed to solve an inverse problem in hydrogeology,
+ then describe the numerous approaches that have been developed over
+ the past 40 years to solve it, emphasizing the major contributions
+ made by Shlomo P. Neuman. Finally, we briefly discuss fitting processes
+ that start by defining the unknown field as geological images (generated
+ by Boolean or geostatistical methods). The early attempts at solving
+ the inverse problem were direct, i.e., the transmissivity field was
+ directly determined by using stream lines of the flow and inverting
+ the flow equation along these lines. Faced with the poor results
+ obtained in this manner, hydrogeologists have tried many different
+ ways of minimizing the balance error representing an integral of
+ the mass-balance error for each mesh for a given transmissivity field.
+ These attempts were accompanied by constraints imposed on the transmissivity
+ field in order to avoid instabilities. The idea then emerged that
+ the unknown field should reproduce the local observations of the
+ pressure at the measurement points instead of minimizing a balance
+ error. Second, it should also satisfy a condition of plausibility,
+ which means that the transmissivity field obtained through the inverse
+ solution should not deviate too far from an a priori estimate of
+ the real transmissivity field. This a priori notion led to the inclusion
+ of a Bayesian approach resulting in the search for an optimal solution
+ by maximum likelihood, as expounded later. Simultaneously, the existence
+ of locally measured values in the transmissivity field (obtained
+ by pumping tests) allowed geostatistical methods to be used in the
+ formulation of the problem; the result of this innovation was that
+ three major approaches came into being: (1) the definition of the
+ a priori transmissivity field by kriging; (2) the method of cokriging;
+ (3) the pilot point method. Furthermore, geostatistics made it possible
+ to pose the inverse problem in a stochastic framework and to solve
+ an ensemble of possible and equally probable fields, each of them
+ equally acceptable as a solution.},
+ doi = {10.1130/0-8137-2348-5.1},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{lisvap2008,
+ author = {{van der knijff}, J.},
+ title = {{LISVAP, Evaporation pre-processor for the LISFLOOD water balance
+ and flood simulation model. Revised user manual}},
+ institution = {Joint Research Centre, European Commission},
+ year = {2008},
+ number = {EUR22639 EN/2},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.06.22}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{lisflood2008,
+ author = {{van der Knijff}, J. and {de Roo}, A.},
+ title = {{LISFLOOD: Distributed water balance and flood simulation model.
+ Revised user manual}},
+ institution = {Institute for Environment and Sustainability. Joint Reserach Centre.
+ European Commission, 108 pp},
+ year = {2008},
+ type = {JRC Scientific and Technical Reports.},
+ number = {EUR 22166 EN/2},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.01.03}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{lisflood2010,
+ author = {{van der Knijff}, J. and Younis, J. and {de Roo}, A.},
+ title = {{LISFLOOD: a GIS-based distributed model for river basin scale water
+ balance and flood simulation}},
+ journal = {International Journal of Geographical Information Science},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {24},
+ pages = {189--212},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {In this paper we describe the spatially distributed LISFLOOD model,
+ which is a hydrological model specifically developed for the simulation
+ of hydrological processes in large European river basins. The model
+ was designed to make the best possible use of existing data sets
+ on soils, land cover, topography and meteorology. We give a detailed
+ description of the simulation of hydrological processes in LISFLOOD,
+ and discuss how the model is parameterized. We also describe how
+ the model was implemented technically using a combination of the
+ PCRaster GIS system and the Python programming language, and discuss
+ the management of in- and output data. Finally, we review some recent
+ applications of LISFLOOD, and we present a case study for the Elbe
+ river.},
+ doi = {10.1080/13658810802549154},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.07.29}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{vanroosmalen+al2009,
+ author = {{van Roosmalen}, L. and Sonnenborg, T. and Jensen, K.},
+ title = {Impact of climate and land use change on the hydrology of a large-scale
+ agricultural catchment},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {45},
+ pages = { W00A15},
+ abstract = {The authors wish to thank the Danish Water and Wastewater Association
+ and Copenhagen Energy for their financial support to this study.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2007WR006760},
+ keywords = {REGIONAL CLIMATE, RIVER-BASIN, WATER-RESOURCES, GROUNDWATER RECHARGE,
+ BRITISH-COLUMBIA, HIGH-RESOLUTION, DANISH RIVERS, MODEL, SIMULATIONS,
+ CALIBRATION},
+ tags = {Applications}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{dewit+al2007,
+ author = {{de Wit}, M. and {van den Hurk}, B. and Warmerdam, P. and Torfs,
+ P. and Roulin, E. and {van Deursen, W.}},
+ title = {Impact of climate change on low--flows in the river {M}euse},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {82},
+ pages = {351--372},
+ number = {3--4},
+ abstract = {In this study observed precipitation, temperature, and discharge records
+ from the Meuse basin for the period 1911–2003 are analysed. The primary
+ aim is to establish which meteorological conditions generate (critical)
+ low-flows of the Meuse. This is achieved by examining the relationships
+ between observed seasonal precipitation and temperature anomalies,
+ and low-flow indices. Secondly, the possible impact of climate change
+ on the (joint) occurrence of these low-flow generating meteorological
+ conditions is addressed. This is based on the outcomes of recently
+ reported RCM climate simulations for Europe given a scenario with
+ increased atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations. The observed
+ record (1911–2003) hints at the importance of multi-seasonal droughts
+ in the generation of critical low-flows of the river Meuse. The RCM
+ simulations point to a future with wetter winters and drier summers
+ in Northwest Europe. No increase in the likelihood of multi-seasonal
+ droughts is simulated. However, the RCM scenario runs produce multi-seasonal
+ precipitation and temperature anomalies that are out of the range
+ of the observed record for the period 1911–2003. The impact of climate
+ change on low-flows has also been simulated with a hydrological model.
+ This simulation indicates that climate change will lead to a decrease
+ in the average discharge of the Meuse during the low-flow season.
+ However, the model has difficulties to simulate critical low-flow
+ conditions of the Meuse.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10584-006-9195-2},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.08.03}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{vanliew+al2005,
+ author = {{van Liew}, M.W. and Arnold, J.G. and Bosch, D.D},
+ title = {Problems and Potential of Autocalibrating a Hydrologic Model},
+ journal = {Transactions of the ASAE },
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {48},
+ pages = {1025-1040},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {An investigation was conducted to evaluate strengths and limitations
+ of auto and manual calibration in the watershed scale model referred
+ to as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Performance of the
+ model was tested on the Little River Experimental Watershed (LREW)
+ in Georgia and the Little Washita River Experimental Watershed (LWREW)
+ in Oklahoma, two USDA-ARS watersheds. A long record of multi-gage
+ streamflow data on each of the watersheds was used for model calibration
+ and validation. Model performance of the streamflow response in SWAT
+ was assessed using a 6 parameter manual calibration based on mass
+ balance and visual inspection of hydrographs and duration of daily
+ flow curves, a 6 parameter autocalibration method based on the sum
+ of squares of the residuals after ranking objective function (autoSSQR6),
+ a 6 parameter method based on the sum of squares of residuals (SSQauto6),
+ and an 11 parameter method based on the sum of square of residuals
+ (SSQauto11). Results show that for both watersheds, the manual calibration
+ generally outperformed the autocalibration methods based upon percent
+ bias (PBIAS) and simulation of the range in magnitude of daily flows.
+ For the calibration period on LREW subwatershed F, PBIAS was 0.0%,
+ -24.0%, -21.5%, and +29.0% for the manual, SSQRauto6, SSQauto6, and
+ SSQauto11 approaches, respectively. Based on the coefficient of efficiency,
+ the SSQauto6 and SSQauto11 methods gave substantially better results
+ than did the manual calibration on the LREW. On the LWREW, however,
+ the manual approach did a better job estimating the coefficient of
+ efficiency statistic. Results of this study suggest that for the
+ practitioner who is faced with substantial time restrictions, the
+ autocalibration option in SWAT provides a labor saving tool that
+ shows promising results. However, manual adjustments following autocalibration
+ may be necessary to maintain mass balance and adequately represent
+ the range in magnitude of output variables. Caution should also be
+ exercised in utilizing the autocalibration tool so that calibrated
+ values in the model are representative of watershed conditions. },
+ tags = {Calibration, SWAT}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{vanliew+al2007,
+ author = {{van Liew}, Michael W. and Veith, Tamie L. and Bosch, David D. and
+ Arnold, Jeffrey G.},
+ title = {Suitability of {SWAT} for the {C}onservation {E}ffects {A}ssessment
+ {P}roject: Comparison on {USDA} {A}gricultural {R}esearch {S}ervice
+ Watersheds},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrologic Engineering},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {12},
+ pages = {173-189},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {Recent interest in tracking environmental benefits of conservation
+ practices on agricultural watersheds throughout the United States
+ has led to the development of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s
+ (USDA) Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP). The purpose
+ of CEAP is to assess environmental benefits derived from implementing
+ various USDA conservation programs for cultivated, range, and irrigated
+ lands. Watershed scale, hydrologic simulation models such as the
+ Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) will be used to relate principal
+ source areas of contaminants to transport paths and processes under
+ a range in climatic, soils, topographic, and land use conditions
+ on agricultural watersheds. To better understand SWAT’s strengths
+ and weaknesses in simulating streamflow for anticipated applications
+ related to CEAP, we conducted a study to evaluate the model’s performance
+ under a range of climatic, topographic, soils, and land use conditions.
+ Hydrologic responses were simulated on five USDA Agricultural Research
+ Service watersheds that included Mahantango Creek Experimental Watershed
+ in Pennsylvania and Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed in Idaho
+ in the northern part of the United States, and Little River Experimental
+ Watershed in Georgia, Little Washita River Experimental Watershed
+ in Oklahoma, and Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed in Arizona in
+ the south. Model simulations were performed on a total of 30 calibration
+ and validation data sets that were obtained from a long record of
+ multigauge climatic and streamflow data on each of the watersheds.
+ A newly developed autocalibration tool for the SWAT model was employe
+ d to calibrate eleven parameters that govern surface and subsurface
+ response for the three southern watersheds, and an additional five
+ parameters that govern the accumulation of snow and snowmelt runoff
+ processes for the two northern watersheds. Based on a comparison
+ of measured versus simulated average annual streamflow, SWAT exhibits
+ an element of robustness in estimating hydrologic responses across
+ a range in topographic, soils, and land use conditions. Differences
+ in model performance, however, are noticeable on a climatic basis
+ in that SWAT will generally perform better on watersheds in more
+ humid climates than in desert or semidesert climates. The model may
+ therefore be better suited for CEAP investigations in wetter regions
+ of the eastern part of the United States that are predominantly cultivated
+ than the dryer regions of the West that are more characteristically
+ rangeland.},
+ doi = {10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2007)12:2(173)},
+ tags = {SWAT, Applications, Calibration}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{ensembles2009,
+ author = {{van der Linden}, P. and Mitchell, J.},
+ title = {{ENSEMBLES}: {C}limate change and its impacts: {S}ummary of research
+ and results from the {ENSEMBLES} project},
+ institution = {Met Office Hadley Centre},
+ year = {2009},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.21},
+ url = {http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com/docs/Ensembles_final_report_Nov09.pdf}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{venderlinden2003,
+ author = {{van der Linden}, S. and Christensen, J.},
+ title = {Improved hydrological modeling for remote regions using a combinationof
+ observed and simulated precipitation data},
+ journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {108},
+ pages = {4072},
+ number = {D2},
+ abstract = {Precipitation, as simulated by climate models, can be used as input
+ in hydrological models, despite possible biases both in the total
+ annual amount simulated as well as the seasonal variation. Here we
+ elaborated on a new technique, which adjusted precipitation data
+ generated by a high-resolution regional climate model (HIRHAM4) with
+ a mean-field bias correction using observed precipitation. A hydrological
+ model (USAFLOW) was applied to simulate runoff using observed precipitation
+ and a combination of observed and simulated precipitation as input.
+ The method was illustrated for the remote Usa basin, situated in
+ the European part of Arctic Russia, close to the Ural Mountains.
+ It was shown that runoff simulations agree better with observations
+ when the combined precipitation data set was used than when only
+ observed precipitation was used. This appeared to be because the
+ HIRHAM4 model data compensated for the absence of observed data from
+ mountainous areas where precipitation is orographically enhanced.
+ In both cases, the runoff simulated by USAFLOW was superior to the
+ runoff simulated within the HIRHAM4 model itself. This was attributed
+ to the rather simplistic description of the water balance in the
+ HIRHAM4 model compared to a more complete representation in USAFLOW.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2001JD001420},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{vanpelt+al2009,
+ author = {{van Pelt}, S. and Kabat, P. and {ter Maat}, H. and {van den Hurk},
+ B. and Weerts, A.},
+ title = {Discharge simulations performed with a hydrological model using bias
+ corrected regional climate model input},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {13},
+ pages = {2387--2397},
+ number = {12},
+ abstract = {Studies have demonstrated that precipitation on Northern Hemisphere
+ mid-latitudes has increased in the last decades and that it is likely
+ that this trend will continue. This will have an influence on discharge
+ of the river Meuse. The use of bias correction methods is important
+ when the effect of precipitation change on river discharge is studied.
+ The objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of using
+ two different bias correction methods on output from a Regional Climate
+ Model (RCM) simulation. In this study a Regional Atmospheric Climate
+ Model (RACMO2) run is used, forced by ECHAM5/MPIOM under the condition
+ of the SRES-A1B emission scenario, with a 25 km horizontal resolution.
+ The RACMO2 runs contain a systematic precipitation bias on which
+ two bias correction methods are applied. The first method corrects
+ for the wet day fraction and wet day average (WD bias correction)
+ and the second method corrects for the mean and coefficient of variance
+ (MV bias correction). The WD bias correction initially corrects well
+ for the average, but it appears that too many successive precipitation
+ days were removed with this correction. The second method performed
+ less well on average bias correction, but the temporal precipitation
+ pattern was better. Subsequently, the discharge was calculated by
+ using RACMO2 output as forcing to the HBV-96 hydrological model.
+ A large difference was found between the simulated discharge of the
+ uncorrected RACMO2 run, the WD bias corrected run and the MV bias
+ corrected run. These results show the importance of an appropriate
+ bias correction.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-13-2387-2009},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.07.29}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{abbaspour+al2009,
+ author = {Abbaspour, K. and Faramarzi, M. and Ghasemi, S. and Yang, H.},
+ title = {Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources in {I}ran},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {45},
+ pages = {W10434},
+ number = {10},
+ abstract = {As water resources become further stressed due to increasing levels
+ of societal demand, understanding the effect of climate change on
+ various components of the water cycle is of strategic importance
+ in management of this essential resource. In this study, we used
+ a hydrologic model of Iran to study the impact of future climate
+ on the country's water resources. The hydrologic model was created
+ using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and calibrated
+ for the period from 1980 to 2002 using daily river discharges and
+ annual wheat yield data at a subbasin level. Future climate scenarios
+ for periods of 2010--2040 and 2070--2100 were generated from the
+ Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM 3.1) for scenarios A1B, B1, and
+ A2, which were downscaled for 37 climate stations across the country.
+ The hydrologic model was then applied to these periods to analyze
+ the effect of future climate on precipitation, blue water, green
+ water, and yield of wheat across the country. For future scenarios
+ we found that in general, wet regions of the country will receive
+ more rainfall while dry regions will receive less. Analysis of daily
+ rainfall intensities indicated more frequent and larger-intensity
+ floods in the wet regions and more prolonged droughts in the dry
+ regions. When aggregated to provincial levels, the differences in
+ the predictions due to the three future scenarios were smaller than
+ the uncertainty in the hydrologic model. However, at the subbasin
+ level the three climate scenarios produced quite different results
+ in the dry regions of the country, although the results in the wet
+ regions were more or less similar. },
+ doi = {10.1029/2008WR007615},
+ keywords = {SWAT, CLimate Change impacts, SUFI-2, uncertainty},
+ tags = {SWAT, Thesis, Climate Change, application, Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{abbaspour+al2007,
+ author = {Abbaspour, K. and Yang, J. and Maximov, I. and Siber, R. and Bogner,
+ K. and Mieleitner, J. and Zobrist, J. and Srinivasan, R.},
+ title = {Modelling hydrology and water quality in the pre-alpine/alpine {T}hur
+ watershed using {SWAT}},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {333},
+ pages = {413--430},
+ number = {2-4},
+ abstract = {In a national effort, since 1972, the Swiss Government started the
+ {``}National Long-term Monitoring of Swiss Rivers{''} (NADUF) program
+ aimed at evaluating the chemical and physical states of major rivers
+ leaving Swiss political boundaries. The established monitoring network
+ of 19 sampling stations included locations on all major rivers of
+ Switzerland. This study complements the monitoring program and aims
+ to model one of the program{'}s catchments {--} Thur River basin
+ (area 1700 km2), which is located in the north-east of Switzerland
+ and is a direct tributary to the Rhine. The program SWAT (Soil and
+ Water Assessment Tool) was used to simulate all related processes
+ affecting water quantity, sediment, and nutrient loads in the catchment.
+ The main objectives were to test the performance of SWAT and the
+ feasibility of using this model as a simulator of flow and transport
+ processes at a watershed scale. Model calibration and uncertainty
+ analysis were performed with SUFI-2 (Sequential Uncertainty FItting
+ Ver. 2), which was interfaced with SWAT using the generic iSWAT program.
+ Two measures were used to assess the goodness of calibration: (1)
+ the percentage of data bracketed by the 95\% prediction uncertainty
+ calculated at the 2.5 and 97.5 percentiles of the cumulative distribution
+ of the simulated variables, and (2) the d-factor, which is the ratio
+ of the average distance between the above percentiles and the standard
+ deviation of the corresponding measured variable. These statistics
+ showed excellent results for discharge and nitrate and quite good
+ results for sediment and total phosphorous. We concluded that: in
+ watersheds similar to Thur {--} with good data quality and availability
+ and relatively small model uncertainty {--} it is feasible to use
+ SWAT as a flow and transport simulator. This is a precursor for watershed
+ management studies.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.09.014},
+ keywords = {Watershed modelling, Water quality modelling, Calibration, Uncertainty
+ analysis, SWAT, SUFI-2},
+ tags = {SWAT, Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@INPROCEEDINGS{abbaspour+al2008,
+ author = {Abbaspour, K. and Yang, J. and Vejdani, M. and Haghighat, S.},
+ title = {{SWAT-CUP}: calibration and uncertainty programs for {SWAT}},
+ booktitle = {4th Int. {SWAT} Conf. Proc.},
+ year = {2008},
+ note = {in press.},
+ keywords = {SWAT-CUP reference},
+ tags = {SWAT, Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@MANUAL{abbaspour2007,
+ title = {{SWAT-CUP2}: {SWAT} calibration and uncertainty analysis programs
+ - A User Manual. 95pp},
+ author = {Karim C. Abbaspour},
+ address = {Eawag: {S}wiss {F}ed. {I}nst. of {A}quat. {S}ci. and {T}echnol. D{\"u}bendorf,
+ Switzerland},
+ year = {2008},
+ note = {{A}vailable at \url{http://www.eawag.ch/organisation/abteilungen/siam/software/swat/index_EN}},
+ tags = {SWAT, Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{abebe+al2010,
+ author = {Abebe, N. and Ogden, F. and Pradhan, N.},
+ title = {{Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the conceptual HBV rainfall-runoff
+ model: Implications for parameter estimation}},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {389},
+ pages = {301--310},
+ number = {3-4},
+ abstract = {HBV is a conceptual hydrological model extensively used in operational
+ hydrological forecasting and water balance studies. In this paper,
+ we apply the HBV model on the 1924 km2 semi-humid Leaf River catchment
+ near Collins, Mississippi. We analyze individual sensitivity of the
+ parameters by calibrating the model using the Multi-Objective Shuffled
+ Complex Evolution (MOSCEM) algorithm, perform Monte-Carlo based identifiability
+ analysis and investigate the dynamic behavior of the parameters using
+ the Dynamic Identifiability Analysis (DYNIA) approach in reference
+ to the hydrological process in the catchment. The sensitivity analysis
+ using two objective measures showed that there are distinct groups
+ of parameters that control total runoff volume errors and errors
+ from the high-flow series. The DYNIA analysis revealed that parameters
+ have specific periods where they show higher identifiability and
+ play a crucial role in representing the predicted stream flow. Temporal
+ changes of parameter optima were observed due either to inadequacies
+ in the model structure or possible time-varying catchment response
+ subject to unsteady hydrodynamic and hydroclimatic conditions.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.06.007},
+ keywords = {HBV, Sensitivity analysis, Identifiability analysis, DYNIA, Model
+ structure},
+ tags = {Sensitivity Analysis, Calibration, Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{abrahart2002,
+ author = {Abrahart, R. and See, L.},
+ title = {Multi--model data fusion for river flow forecasting: {A}n evaluation
+ of six alternative methods based on two contrasting catchments},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {6},
+ pages = {655-670},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {This paper evaluates six published data fusion strategies for hydrological
+ forecasting based on two contrasting catchments: the River Ouse and
+ the Upper River Wye. The input level and discharge estimates for
+ each river comprised a mixed set of single model forecasts. Data
+ fusion was performed using: arithmetic-averaging, a probabilistic
+ method in which the best model from the last time step is used to
+ generate the current forecast, two different neural network operations
+ and two different soft computing methodologies. The results from
+ this investigation are compared and contrasted using statistical
+ and graphical evaluation. Each location demonstrated several options
+ and potential advantages for using data fusion tools to construct
+ superior estimates of hydrological forecast. Fusion operations were
+ better in overall terms in comparison to their individual modelling
+ counterparts and two clear winners emerged. Indeed, the six different
+ mechanisms on test revealed unequal aptitudes for fixing different
+ categories of problematic catchment behaviour and, in such cases,
+ the best method(s) were a good deal better than their closest rival(s).
+ Neural network fusion of differenced data provided the best solution
+ for a stable regime (with neural network fusion of original data
+ being somewhat similar) — whereas a fuzzified probabilistic mechanism
+ produced a superior output in a more volatile environment. The need
+ for a data fusion research agenda within the hydrological sciences
+ is discussed and some initial suggestions are presented.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-6-655-2002},
+ owner = {Rodrigo},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{ajami2005,
+ author = {Ajami, N. and Duan, Q. and Gao, X. and Sorooshian, S.},
+ title = {Multimodel combination techniques for hydrologic forecasting: {A}pplication
+ to distributed model intercomparison project results},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {7},
+ pages = {755-768},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {This paper examines several multimodel combination techniques that
+ are used for streamflow forecasting: the simple model average (SMA),
+ the multimodel superensemble (MMSE), modified multimodel superensemble
+ (M3SE), and the weighted average method (WAM). These model combination
+ techniques were evaluated using the results from the Distributed
+ Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP), an international project sponsored
+ by the National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Hydrologic Development
+ (OHD). All of the multimodel combination results were obtained using
+ uncalibrated DMIP model simulations and were compared against the
+ best-uncalibrated as well as the best-calibrated individual model
+ results. The purpose of this study is to understand how different
+ combination techniques affect the accuracy levels of the multimodel
+ simulations. This study revealed that the multimodel simulations
+ obtained from uncalibrated single-model simulations are generally
+ better than any single-member model simulations, even the best-calibrated
+ single-model simulations. Furthermore, more sophisticated multimodel
+ combination techniques that incorporated bias correction step work
+ better than simple multimodel average simulations or multimodel simulations
+ without bias correction.},
+ doi = {10.1175/JHM519.1},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{ajami2007,
+ author = {Ajami, N. and Duan, Q. and Sorooshian, S.},
+ title = {An integrated hydrologic {B}ayesian multimodel combination framework:
+ {C}onfronting input, parameter, and model structural uncertainty
+ in hydrologic prediction},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {43},
+ pages = {W01403},
+ abstract = {The conventional treatment of uncertainty in rainfall-runoff modeling
+ primarily attributes uncertainty in the input-output representation
+ of the model to uncertainty in the model parameters without explicitly
+ addressing the input, output, and model structural uncertainties.
+ This paper presents a new framework, the Integrated Bayesian Uncertainty
+ Estimator (IBUNE), to account for the major uncertainties of hydrologic
+ rainfall-runoff predictions explicitly. IBUNE distinguishes between
+ the various sources of uncertainty including parameter, input, and
+ model structural uncertainty. An input error model in the form of
+ a Gaussian multiplier has been introduced within IBUNE. These multipliers
+ are assumed to be drawn from an identical distribution with an unknown
+ mean and variance which were estimated along with other hydrological
+ model parameters by a Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) scheme. IBUNE
+ also includes the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) scheme which is
+ employed to further improve the prediction skill and address model
+ structural uncertainty using multiple model outputs. A series of
+ case studies using three rainfall-runoff models to predict the streamflow
+ in the Leaf River basin, Mississippi, are used to examine the necessity
+ and usefulness of this technique. The results suggest that ignoring
+ either input forcings error or model structural uncertainty will
+ lead to unrealistic model simulations and incorrect uncertainty bounds.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2005WR004745},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.07.16}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{ajami+al2004,
+ author = {Ajami, N. and Gupta, H. and Wagener, T. and Sorooshian, S.},
+ title = {Calibration of a semi-distributed hydrologic model for streamflow
+ estimation along a river system},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {298},
+ pages = {112--135},
+ number = {1-4},
+ abstract = {An important goal of spatially distributed hydrologic modeling is
+ to provide estimates of streamflow (and river levels) at any point
+ along the river system. To encourage collaborative research into
+ appropriate levels of model complexity, the value of spatially distributed
+ data, and methods suitable for model development and calibration,
+ the US National Weather Service Hydrology Laboratory (NWSHL) is promoting
+ the distributed modeling intercomparison project (DMIP). In particular,
+ the project is interested in how spatially distributed estimates
+ of precipitation provided by the next generation radar (NEXRAD) network,
+ high resolution digital elevation models (DEM), soil, land-use and
+ vegetation data can be integrated into an improved system for distributed
+ hydrologic modeling that provides more accurate and informative flood
+ forecasts.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.hydrol.2004.03.033},
+ keywords = {NEXRAD, distributed hydrologic modeling, calibration, flow forecasting,
+ DISTRIBUTED CATCHMENT MODEL, AUTOMATIC CALIBRATION, SPATIAL VARIABILITY,
+ RUNOFF, RAINFALL, PRECIPITATION, UNCERTAINTY, INFORMATION, SENSITIVITY,
+ PREDICTION},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{ajami2008,
+ author = {Ajami, N. and Hornberger, G. and Sunding, D.},
+ title = {Sustainable water resource management under hydrological uncertainty},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {44},
+ pages = {W11406},
+ abstract = {A proper understanding of the sources and effects of uncertainty is
+ needed to achieve the goals of reliability and sustainability in
+ water resource management and planning. Many studies have focused
+ on uncertainties relating to climate inputs (e.g., precipitation
+ and temperature), as well as those related to supply and demand relationships.
+ In the end-to-end projection of the hydrological impacts of climate
+ variability, however, hydrological uncertainties have often been
+ ignored or addressed indirectly. In this paper, we demonstrate the
+ importance of hydrological uncertainties for reliable water resources
+ management. We assess the uncertainties associated with hydrological
+ inputs, parameters, and model structural uncertainties using an integrated
+ Bayesian uncertainty estimator framework. Subsequently, these uncertainties
+ are propagated through a simple reservoir management model in order
+ to evaluate how various operational rules impact the characteristics
+ of the downstream uncertainties, such as the width of the uncertainty
+ bounds. By considering different operational rules, we examine how
+ hydrological uncertainties impact reliability, resilience, and vulnerability
+ of the management system. The results of this study suggest that
+ a combination of operational rules (i.e., an adaptive operational
+ approach) is the most reliable and sustainable overall management
+ strategy.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2007WR006736},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.02.22}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{akaike1974,
+ author = {Akaike, H.},
+ title = {A new look at the statistical model identification},
+ journal = {IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control},
+ year = {1974},
+ volume = {19},
+ pages = {716--723},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {The history of the development of statistical hypothesis testing in
+ time series analysis is reviewed briefly and it is pointed out that
+ the hypothesis testing procedure is not adequately defined as the
+ procedure for statistical model identilication. The classical maximum
+ likelihood estimation procedure is reviewed and a new estimate minimum
+ information theoretical criterion (AIC) estimate (MAICE) which is
+ designed for the purpose of statistical identification is introduced.
+ When there are several competing models the MAICE is defined by the
+ model and the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters which
+ give the minimum of AIC defined by AIC = (-2)log(maximum likelihood)
+ + 2(number of independently adjusted parameters within the model).
+ MAICE provides a versatile procedure for statistical model identification
+ which isf ree from the ambiguities inherienn tth e application of
+ conventional hypothesis testing procedure. The practical utility
+ of MAICE in time series analysis is demonstratwedit h some numerical
+ examples.},
+ file = {:E\:\\rojasro\\My Documents\\articles\\A new look at the statistical model identification (Akaike, H. 1974).pdf:PDF},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23},
+ url = {http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=1100705&userType=inst}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{alcamo2003,
+ author = {Alcamo, J. and D\"oll, P. and Henrichs, T. and Kaspar, F. and Lehner,
+ B. and R\"osch, T. and Siebert, S.},
+ title = {Development and testing of the {WaterGAP 2} global model of water
+ use and availability},
+ journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {48},
+ pages = {317--337},
+ number = {3},
+ month = {June},
+ abstract = {Growing interest in global environmental issues has led to the need
+ for global and regional assessment of water resources. A global water
+ assessment model called “WaterGAP 2†is described, which consists
+ of two main components'a Global Water Use model and a Global Hydrology
+ model. These components are used to compute water use and availability
+ on the river basin level. The Global Water Use model consists of
+ (a) domestic and industry sectors which take into account the effect
+ of structural and technological changes on water use, and (b) an
+ agriculture sector which accounts especially for the effect of climate
+ on irrigation water requirements. The Global Hydrology model calculates
+ surface runoff and groundwater recharge based on the computation
+ of daily water balances of the soil and canopy. A water balance is
+ also performed for surface waters, and river flow is routed via a
+ global flow routing scheme. The Global Hydrology model provides a
+ testable method for taking into account the effects of climate and
+ land cover on runoff. The components of the model have been calibrated
+ and tested against data on water use and runoff from river basins
+ throughout the world. Although its performance can and needs to be
+ improved, the WaterGAP 2 model already provides a consistent method
+ to fill in many of the existing gaps in water resources data in many
+ parts of the world. It also provides a coherent approach for generating
+ scenarios of changes in water resources. Hence, it is especially
+ useful as a tool for globally comparing the water situation in river
+ basins.},
+ doi = {10.1623/hysj.48.3.317.45290},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.08.10}
+}
+
+@INCOLLECTION{alcamo+al2007,
+ author = {Alcamo, J. and Moreno, J. and Nov\'aky, B. and Bondi, M. and Corobov,
+ R. and Devoy, R. and Giannakopoulos, C. and Martin, E. and Olesen,
+ J. and Shividenko, A.},
+ title = {Europe},
+ booktitle = {Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution
+ of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental
+ panel on climate change},
+ publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
+ year = {2007},
+ editor = {M. L. Parry and O. F. Canziani and J. P. Palutikof and P. J. {van
+ der Linden} and C. E. Hanson},
+ pages = {541--580},
+ address = {UK, Cambridge},
+ tags = {IPCC}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{alcolea2006,
+ author = {Alcolea, A. and Carrera, J. and Medina, A.},
+ title = {Pilot points method incorporating prior information for solving the
+ groundwater flow inverse problem},
+ journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {29},
+ pages = {1678--1689},
+ number = {11},
+ abstract = {The pilot points method is often used in nonlinear geostatistical
+ calibration. The method consists of estimating the values of the
+ hydraulic properties at a set of arbitrary (pilot) points so as to
+ best fit the aquifer response as measured by available indirect observations
+ (i.e., heads or drawdowns). Though this method remains general and
+ appealing, no prior information of the hydraulic properties is usually
+ included in the optimization process, which constrains the number
+ of pilot points to ensure stability. In this paper, we present a
+ modification of the pilot points method, including prior information
+ in the optimization process by adding a plausibility term to the
+ objective function to be minimized. This results from formulating
+ the inverse problem in a maximum likelihood framework. The performance
+ of the method is tested on a synthetic example. Results show that
+ including the plausibility term improves the identification of heterogeneity.
+ Furthermore, this term makes the inverse problem more stable and
+ allows the use of larger number of pilot points, thus improving the
+ identification of the heterogeneity as well. Therefore, the use of
+ the plausibility term is recommended.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.advwatres.2005.12.009},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{aliKaelo2008,
+ author = {Ali, M. and Kaelo, P.},
+ title = {Improved particle swarm algorithms for global optimization},
+ journal = {Applied Mathematics and Computation},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {196},
+ pages = {578--593 },
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {Particle swarm optimization algorithm has recently gained much attention
+ in the global optimization research community. As a result, a few
+ variants of the algorithm have been suggested. In this paper, we
+ study the efficiency and robustness of a number of particle swarm
+ optimization algorithms and identify the cause for their slow convergence.
+ We then propose some modifications in the position update rule of
+ particle swarm optimization algorithm in order to make the convergence
+ faster. These modifications result in two new versions of the particle
+ swarm optimization algorithm. A numerical study is carried out using
+ a set of 54 test problems some of which are inspired by practical
+ applications. Results show that the new algorithms are much more
+ robust and efficient than some existing particle swarm optimization
+ algorithms. A comparison of the new algorithms with the differential
+ evolution algorithm is also made.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.amc.2007.06.020},
+ keywords = {Particle swarm, Global optimization, Population set, Differential
+ evolution},
+ tags = {PSO, Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{allenIngram2002,
+ author = {Allen, M. and Ingram, W.},
+ title = {Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle},
+ journal = {Nature},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {419},
+ pages = {224--232},
+ number = {6903},
+ abstract = {What can we say about changes in the hydrologic cycle on 50-year timescales
+ when we cannot predict rainfall next week? Eventually, perhaps, a
+ great deal: the overall climate response to increasing atmospheric
+ concentrations of greenhouse gases may prove much simpler and more
+ predictable than the chaos of short-term weather. Quantifying the
+ diversity of possible responses is essential for any objective, probability-based
+ climate forecast, and this task will require a new generation of
+ climate modelling experiments, systematically exploring the range
+ of model behaviour that is consistent with observations. It will
+ be substantially harder to quantify the range of possible changes
+ in the hydrologic cycle than in global-mean temperature, both because
+ the observations are less complete and because the physical constraints
+ are weaker.},
+ doi = {10.1038/nature01092},
+ keywords = {ATLANTIC THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION, NORTH-ATLANTIC, GLOBAL PRECIPITATION,
+ SOUTHERN OSCILLATIONS, WATER-VAPOR, ATMOSPHERE, MODEL, VARIABILITY,
+ TRENDS, FREQUENCY}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{allen+al2001,
+ author = {Allen, M. and Raper, S. and Mitchell, J.},
+ title = {Climate change. {U}ncertainty in the {IPCC}'s Third Assessment Report},
+ journal = {Science},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {293},
+ pages = {430--433},
+ number = {5529},
+ abstract = {Reilly et al. (1) (page 430) raise several important points regarding
+ the explanation and presentation of the climate change issue. They
+ criticize the treatment of uncertainty in the Third Assessment Report
+ (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), citing
+ in particular the lack of an estimate of the probability that human-induced
+ warming over the 1990-2100 period will lie either above or below
+ the projected range of 1.4º to 5.8ºC. Wigley and Raper (2) provide
+ such an estimate based on an exhaustive perturbation analysis of
+ a simple climate model. Here, we address why the authors of the TAR
+ were not in a position to provide a probabilistic forecast of 2100
+ temperatures, although a consensus statement could be made about
+ the likelihood of different warming rates on shorter (50-year) time
+ scales.},
+ doi = {10.1126/science.1062823},
+ pmid = {11463898},
+ tags = {Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{allen+al2000,
+ author = {Allen, M. and Stott, P. and Mitchell, J. and Schnur, R. and Delworth,
+ T.},
+ title = {Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate
+ change},
+ journal = {Nature},
+ year = {2000},
+ volume = {407},
+ pages = {617--620},
+ number = {6804},
+ abstract = {Forecasts of climate change are inevitably uncertain. It is therefore
+ essential to quantify the risk of significant departures from the
+ predicted response to a given emission scenario. Previous analyses
+ of this risk have been based either on expert opinion, perturbation
+ analysis of simplified climate models or the comparison of predictions
+ from general circulation models6. Recent observed changes that appear
+ to be attributable to human influence provide a powerful constraint
+ on the uncertainties in multi-decadal forecasts. Here we assess the
+ range of warming rates over the coming 50 years that are consistent
+ with the observed near-surface temperature record as well as with
+ the overall patterns of response predicted by several general circulation
+ models. We expect global mean temperatures in the decade 2036–46
+ to be 1–2.5 K warmer than in pre-industrial times under a 'business
+ as usual' emission scenario. This range is relatively robust to errors
+ in the models' climate sensitivity, rate of oceanic heat uptake or
+ global response to sulphate aerosols as long as these errors are
+ persistent over time. Substantial changes in the current balance
+ of greenhouse warming and sulphate aerosol cooling would, however,
+ increase the uncertainty. Unlike 50-year warming rates, the final
+ equilibrium warming after the atmospheric composition stabilizes
+ remains very uncertain, despite the evidence provided by the emerging
+ signal.},
+ doi = {10.1038/35036559},
+ pmid = {11034207},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, Thesis}
+}
+
+@BOOK{FAO56,
+ title = {Crop evapotranspiration - Guidelines for computing crop water requirements},
+ publisher = {FAO},
+ year = {1998},
+ author = {Allen, R. and Pereira, L. and Raes, D. and Smith, M.},
+ volume = {FAO irrigation and drainage paper 56},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.08.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{anctil+al2006,
+ author = {Anctil, F. and Lauzon, N. and Andreassian, V. and Oudin, L. and Perrin,
+ C.},
+ title = {Improvement of rainfall-runoff forecasts through mean areal rainfall
+ optimization},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {328},
+ pages = {717--725},
+ abstract = {Rainfall information is a dominant element in the development of Lumped
+ neural network rainfall-runoff forecasting models. In this study,
+ forecasting improvement is sought through the optimization of the
+ mean daily areal rainfall time series. The experimental protocol
+ is structured in two phases. First, the rain gage network is randomly
+ sampled to produce subsets of specific number of rain gages, in order
+ to assess the impact of reduced rainfall knowledge on streamflow
+ forecasting performance. Then, genetic algorithm is used to orient
+ the rain gage combinatorial problem toward improved forecasting performance.
+ The analysis consists of one-day ahead forecast for a mountainous
+ watershed (3234 km(2)) known for its heterogeneous rainfall.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.01.016},
+ keywords = {rainfall-runoff, neural networks, genetic algorithm, rain gage network,
+ streamflow forecasting, model performance, mean areal rainfall, ARTIFICIAL
+ NEURAL-NETWORKS, GENETIC ALGORITHM, COMBINATORIAL OPTIMIZATION, FEEDFORWARD
+ NETWORKS, MODEL CALIBRATION, FLASH-FLOOD, PREDICTION, DESIGN, ANN,
+ VALIDATION},
+ tags = {Applications, Rainfall}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{anderman1996,
+ author = {Anderman, E. and Holl, M. and Poeter, E.},
+ title = {Two--dimensional advective transport in ground-water flow parameter
+ estimation},
+ journal = {Ground Water},
+ year = {1996},
+ volume = {34},
+ pages = {1001--1009},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {Nonlinear regression is useful in ground-water flow parameter estimation,
+ but problems of parameter insensitivity and correlation often exist
+ given commonly available hydraulic-head and head-dependent flow (for
+ example, stream and lake gain or loss) observations. To address this
+ problem, advective-transport observations are added to the ground-water
+ flow, parameter-estimation model MODFLOWP using particle-tracking
+ methods. The resulting model is used to investigate the importance
+ of advective-transport observations relative to head-dependent flow
+ observations when either or both are used in conjunction with hydraulic-head
+ observations in a simulation of the sewage-discharge plume at Otis
+ Air Force Base, Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA. The analysis procedure
+ for evaluating the probable effect of new observations on the regression
+ results consists of two steps: (1) parameter sensitivities and correlations
+ calculated at initial parameter values are used to assess the model
+ parameterization and expected relative contributions of different
+ types of observations to the regression; and (2) optimal parameter
+ values are estimated by nonlinear regression and evaluated. In the
+ Cape Cod parameter-estimation model, advective-transport observations
+ did not significantly increase the overall parameter sensitivity;
+ however: (1) inclusion of advective-transport observations decreased
+ parameter correlation enough for more unique parameter values to
+ be estimated by the regression; (2) realistic uncertainties in advective-transport
+ observations had a small effect on parameter estimates relative to
+ the precision with which the parameters were estimated; and (3) the
+ regression results and sensitivity analysis provided insight into
+ the dynamics of the ground-water flow system, especially the importance
+ of accurate boundary conditions. In this work, advective-transport
+ observations improved the calibration of the model and the estimation
+ of ground-water flow parameters, and use of regression and related
+ techniques produced significant insight into the physical system.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1745-6584.1996.tb02165.x},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.02.16}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{anderson+al2000,
+ author = {Anderson, M. and Kavvas, L. and Mierzwa, M.},
+ title = {Assessing hydrologic drought risk using simplified climate model},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrologic Engineering},
+ year = {2000},
+ volume = {5},
+ pages = {393--401},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {Water resources systems operation requires drought risk estimates
+ to mitigate possible drought-related damages. Drought risk assessment
+ is complicated by the nonlinear interaction of the atmospheric hydrologic
+ and oceanic systems where highly varied hydrologic system responses
+ to similar drought-forcing phenomena can occur. A methodology capable
+ of assessing drought risk associated with hydroclimatic events by
+ using a simplified climate model is presented. Ensemble mean and
+ standard deviations of hydrologic water storage represent the expected
+ hydrologic system response to the hydroclimatic event. Relative frequency
+ histograms and cumulative distribution functions characterize the
+ range of hydrologic system responses that can occur and are used
+ to obtain the spatially and temporally evolving drought risks. The
+ methodology is presented in a framework suitable for application
+ to resources management. An outline of the approach, description
+ of the simplified climate model used in this study, and an illustrative
+ example using a La Niña type event as the drought-forcing mechanism
+ are given. Simulation results, the methodology, and future directions
+ are discussed.},
+ doi = {10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2000)5:4(393)},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.07.05}
+}
+
+@BOOK{anderson1992,
+ title = {Applied groundwater modelling--{S}imulation of flow and advective
+ transport},
+ publisher = {Academic Press},
+ year = {1992},
+ author = {Anderson, M. and Woessner, W.},
+ pages = {381},
+ address = {San Diego Califormia},
+ edition = {First},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{andreasson+al2004,
+ author = {Andr\'easson, J. and Bergstr\"om, S. and Carlsson, B. and Graham,
+ L. and Lindstr\"om, G.},
+ title = {Hydrological Change. {C}limate change impact simulations for {S}weeden},
+ journal = {Ambio},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {33},
+ pages = {228--234},
+ number = {4--5},
+ abstract = {Climate change resulting from the enhanced greenhouse effect is expected
+ to give rise to changes in hydrological systems. This hydrological
+ change, as with the change in climate variables, will vary regionally
+ around the globe. Impact studies at local and regional scales are
+ needed to assess how different regions will be affected. This study
+ focuses on assessment of hydrological impacts of climate change over
+ a wide range of Swedish basins. Different methods of transferring
+ the signal of climate change from climate models to hydrological
+ models were used. Several hydrological model simulations using regional
+ climate model scenarios from Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme
+ (SWECLIM) are presented. A principal conclusion is that subregional
+ impacts to river flow vary considerably according to whether a basin
+ is in northern or southern Sweden. Furthermore, projected hydrological
+ change is just as dependent on the choice of the global climate model
+ used for regional climate model boundary conditions as the choice
+ of anthropogenic emissions scenario.},
+ doi = {10.1579/0044-7447-33.4.228},
+ file = {:E\:\\rojasro\\My Documents\\articles\\Hydrological change - climate change impact simualtionsfor Sweden (Andreason et al. 2004).pdf:PDF},
+ tags = {Climate Change}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{andrews+al2011,
+ author = {Andrews, F. and Croke, B. and Jakeman, A.},
+ title = {An open software environment for hydrological model assessment and
+ development},
+ journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software},
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {26},
+ pages = {1171--1185},
+ number = {10},
+ abstract = {The hydromad (Hydrological Model Assessment and Development) package
+ provides a set of functions which work together to construct, manipulate,
+ analyse and compare hydrological models. The class of hydrological
+ models considered are dynamic, spatially-aggregated conceptual or
+ statistical models. The package functions are designed to fit seamlessly
+ into the R system, and builds on its powerful data manipulation and
+ analysis capabilities. The framework used in the package encourages
+ a separation of model components based on Unit Hydrograph theory;
+ many published models are consistent with this and implementations
+ of several are included. For comparative assessment, model performance
+ can be analysed over time and with respect to covariates to reveal
+ systematic biases. Support has been built in for event-based analysis
+ of data and assessment of model performance. Fit statistics can be
+ defined by choices of (1) temporal scale and aggregation function;
+ (2) weighting and transformation; and (3) reference model. One can
+ define new Soil Moisture Accounting models, routing models, calibration
+ methods, objective functions, and evaluation statistics, while retaining
+ as much of the default framework as is useful. And as the package
+ code is available under a free software licence, one always has the
+ freedom to adapt it as required. Use of the software is demonstrated
+ in a case study of the Queanbeyan River catchment in South-East Australia.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2011.04.006},
+ issn = {1364-8152},
+ keywords = {Model evaluation}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{andreassian+al2010,
+ author = {Andr{\'e}assian, V. and Perrin, C. and Parent, E. and Bardossy, A.},
+ title = {{The court of miracles of hydrology: Can failure stories contribute
+ to hydrological science?}},
+ journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {55},
+ pages = {849--856},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {In this article, we suggest that giving greater prominence to the
+ analysis of failures and errors would more fruitfully advance the
+ hydrological sciences. As widely recognised by philosophers of science,
+ we can all learn from our mistakes, and errors can lead to discovery
+ if they are properly diagnosed. However, failure stories are very
+ seldom communicated and published, even though they represent the
+ bulk of the results obtained by researchers and modellers. This article
+ is the result of passionate discussions held in a workshop called
+ the Court of Miracles of Hydrology held in Paris in June 2008. The
+ participants had been invited to present their unpublished experience
+ with what could be called monsters, anomalies, outliers and failures
+ in their everyday practice of hydrology. The review of these studies
+ clearly shows that in-depth analysis of these observations and results
+ that deviate from the expected norm blazes a trail that can only
+ lead to progress. },
+ doi = {10.1080/02626667.2010.506050},
+ tags = {Calibration, Philosophical}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{apel+al2009,
+ author = {Apel, H. and Aronica, G. and Kreibich, H. and Thieken, A.},
+ title = {Flood risk analyses—how detailed do we need to be?},
+ journal = {Natural Hazards},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {49},
+ pages = {79--98},
+ note = {10.1007/s11069-008-9277-8},
+ abstract = {Applied flood risk analyses, especially in urban areas, very often
+ pose the question how detailed the analysis needs to be in order
+ to give a realistic figure of the expected risk. The methods used
+ in research and practical applications range from very basic approaches
+ with numerous simplifying assumptions up to very sophisticated, data
+ and calculation time demanding applications both on the hazard and
+ on the vulnerability part of the risk. In order to shed some light
+ on the question of required model complexity in flood risk analyses
+ and outputs sufficiently fulfilling the task at hand, a number of
+ combinations of models of different complexity both on the hazard
+ and on the vulnerability side were tested in a case study. The different
+ models can be organized in a model matrix of different complexity
+ levels: On the hazard side, the approaches/models selected were (A)
+ linear interpolation of gauge water levels and intersection with
+ a digital elevation model (DEM), (B) a mixed 1D/2D hydraulic model
+ with simplifying assumptions (LISFLOOD-FP) and (C) a Saint-Venant
+ 2D zero-inertia hyperbolic hydraulic model considering the built
+ environment and infrastructure. On the vulnerability side, the models
+ used for the estimation of direct damage to residential buildings
+ are in order of increasing complexity: (I) meso-scale stage-damage
+ functions applied to CORINE land cover data, (II) the rule-based
+ meso-scale model FLEMOps+ using census data on the municipal building
+ stock and CORINE land cover data and (III) a rule-based micro-scale
+ model applied to a detailed building inventory. Besides the inundation
+ depths, the latter two models consider different building types and
+ qualities as well as the level of private precaution and contamination
+ of the floodwater. The models were applied in a municipality in east
+ Germany, Eilenburg. It suffered extraordinary damage during the flood
+ of August 2002, which was well documented as were the inundation
+ extent and depths. These data provide an almost unique data set for
+ the validation of flood risk analyses. The analysis shows that the
+ combination of the 1D/2D model and the meso-scale damage model FLEMOps+
+ performed best and provide the best compromise between data requirements,
+ simulation effort, and an acceptable accuracy of the results. The
+ more detailed approaches suffered from complex model set-up, high
+ data requirements, and long computation times.},
+ affiliation = {Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ Section 5.4: Engineering Hydrology,
+ Telegrafenberg 14473 Potsdam Germany},
+ issn = {0921-030X},
+ issue = {1},
+ keyword = {Earth and Environmental Science},
+ publisher = {Springer Netherlands}
+}
+
+@BOOK{applebaum1996,
+ title = {Probability and information: {A}n integrated approach},
+ publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
+ year = {1996},
+ author = {Applebaum, D.},
+ address = {Cambridge},
+ edition = {First},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{apsite+al2010,
+ author = {Apsite, E. and Bakute, A. and Kurpniece, L. and Pallo, I.},
+ title = {{Changes in river runoff in Latvia at the ens of the 21st century}},
+ journal = {FENNIA - International Journal of Geoggraphy},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {188},
+ pages = {50--60},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {This study deals with future climate change impacts on the runoff
+ of five Latvian river basins at the end of this century. Climate
+ data series have been provided by the Faculty of Physics and Mathematics
+ of the University of Latvia where the
+
+ regional climate model Rossby Centre Atmosphere Ocean was selected
+ for further statistical downscaling. Changes in hydrometeorological
+ data have been analysed based upon one control run (period 1961?1990)
+ and two future scenario
+
+ A2 and B2 runs (2071?2100). The conceptual rainfall-runoff model,
+ the latest version of METQ2007BDOPT, was used for simulation of hydrological
+ processes in particular river basins. Simulation results revealed
+ that in comparison
+
+ to the control period, major differences in hydrometeorological parameters
+ in future were observed according to A2 scenario, where long-term
+ mean air temperature will grow by 4 degrees and precipitation by
+ 12%, while mean annual
+
+ river flow will decrease by 19%. Both scenarios demonstrate changes
+ in seasonal runoff patterns where the major part of river runoff
+ will be generated in winter, followed by spring, autumn and summer.
+ The river hydrograph is going
+
+ to take a different shape, where the maximum river discharges will
+ occur in winter instead of spring.},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.07.05},
+ url = {http://ojs.tsv.fi/index.php/fennia/article/view/2844/3456}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{aravena1995,
+ author = {Aravena, R.},
+ title = {Isotope hydrology and geochemistry of northern chile groundwaters},
+ journal = {Bulletin de l'Institut francais d'\`etudes andines},
+ year = {1995},
+ volume = {24},
+ pages = {495--503},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {This paper reviews studies that applied idotope techniwues in aquifers
+ located in the Pampa del tamarugal and the Salar de Atacama Basins
+ in northern Chile. The main aims studies were to obtain information
+ about the origin and residence time of groundwater, groundwater quality,
+ evaporation rates from Salares, and the relationship between flooding
+ and aquifer recharge. The main conclusions of these studies, that
+ have implications for water resources management in this region are:
+ a) most of the groundwtaer is of good quality, with the exception
+ of areas close to the Salares; b) a multiaquifer system was identified
+ in the Pampa del Tamarugal basin, associated with recharge areas
+ located at different altitudes and; c) a significan t portion of
+ groundwaters in the Pampa aquifers should be treated as a non renewable
+ water resource.},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19},
+ url = {http://www.ifeanet.org/publicaciones/boletines/24%283%29/495.pdf}
+}
+
+@CONFERENCE{aravena1989,
+ author = {Aravena, R. and Pe\~na, H. and Grilli, A. and Suzuki, O. and Mordeckai,
+ M.},
+ title = {Evoluci\'on isot\'opica de las lluvias y origen de las masas de aire
+ en el altiplano chileno},
+ booktitle = {Isotope hydrology investigations in Latin America},
+ year = {1989},
+ address = {Vienna, Austria},
+ organization = {IAEA},
+ publisher = {IAEA},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.04.08}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{aravena1999,
+ author = {Aravena, R. and Suzuki, O. and Pe\~na, H. and Pollastri, A. and Fuenzalida,
+ H. and Grilli, A.},
+ title = {Isotopic composition and origin of the precipitation in {N}orthern
+ {Chile}},
+ journal = {Applied Geochemistry},
+ year = {1999},
+ volume = {14},
+ pages = {411--422},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {A 3 a data set of isotopes in precipitation from northern Chile show
+ a very distinct pattern, with ?18O values ranging between ?18 and
+ ?15‰ at high altitude stations, compared to ?18O values between ?10
+ and ?6‰ at the lower altitude areas. The 18O-depleted values observed
+ in the high altitude area, the Altiplano, are related to processes
+ that affect the air masses that originated over the Atlantic, cross
+ the Amazon Basin (continental effect), ascend the Andes (altitude
+ effect) and precipitated (convective effect) in the Altiplano. It
+ is postulated that a second source of moisture, associated with air
+ masses from the Pacific, may contribute to the 18O-enriched values
+ observed in the lower altitude areas. Similar isotopic patterns are
+ documented in springs and groundwater indicating that the data presented
+ in this paper are an accurate representation of the long term behavior
+ isotopic composition of rain in northern Chile.},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0883-2927(98)00067-5},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{argent2004,
+ author = {Argent, R.},
+ title = {An overview of model integration for environmental applications-components,
+ frameworks and semantics},
+ journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {19},
+ pages = {219--234},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {In recent years, pressure has increased on environmental scientist/modellers
+ to both undertake good science in an efficient and timely manner,
+ under increasing resource constraints, and also to ensure that the
+ science being performed is immediately relevant to a particular environmental
+ management context. At the same time, environmental management is
+ changing, with increasing requirements for multi-scale and multi-objective
+ assessment and decision making that considers economic and social
+ systems, as well as the ecosystem. Integration of management activities,
+ and also of the modelling undertaken to support management, has become
+ a high priority. To solve the problems of application and integration,
+ knowledge encapsulation in models is being undertaken in a way that
+ both meets the needs for good science, and also provides the conceptual
+ and technical structures required for broader and more integrated
+ application of that knowledge by managers. To support this modelling,
+ tools and technologies from computer science and software engineering
+ are being transferred to applied environmental science fields, and
+ a range of new modelling and software development approaches are
+ being pursued. The papers in this Special Issue provide examples
+ of the integrated modelling concepts and applications that have been,
+ or are being, developed. These include the use of object-oriented
+ concepts, component-based modelling techniques and modelling frameworks,
+ as well as the emerging use of integrated modelling platforms and
+ metadata support for modelling semantics. This paper provides an
+ overview of the science and management imperatives underlying recent
+ developments, discusses the technological and conceptual developments
+ that have taken place, and highlights some of the semantic, operational
+ and process requirements that need to be addressed now that the technological
+ aspects of integrated modelling are well advanced.},
+ doi = {10.1016/S1364-8152(03)00150-6},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.03.22}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{arheimer+al2005,
+ author = {Arheimer, B. and Andr\'easson, J. and Fogelberg, S. and Johnsson,
+ H. and Pers, C. and Persson, K.},
+ title = {Climate change impact on water quality: {M}odel results from southern
+ {S}weden},
+ journal = {Ambio},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {34},
+ pages = {559--566},
+ number = {7},
+ abstract = {Starting from six regional climate change scenarios, nitrogen leaching
+ from arable-soil, water discharge, and nitrogen retention was modeled
+ in the R{\"o}nne{\aa} catchment. Additionally, biological response
+ was modeled in the eutrophic Lake Ringsj{\"o}n. The results are compared
+ with similar studies on other catchments. All scenarios gave similar
+ impact on water quality but varied in quantities. However, one scenario
+ resulted in a different transport pattern due to less-pronounced
+ seasonal variations in the hydrology. On average, the study shows
+ that, in a future climate, we might expect: i) increased concentrations
+ of nitrogen in the arable root zone (+50%) and in the river (+13%);
+ ii) increased annual load of nitrogen from land to sea (+22%) due
+ to more pronounced winter high flow; moreover, remote areas in the
+ catchment may start to contribute to the outlet load; iii) radical
+ changes in lake biochemistry with increased concentrations of total
+ phosphorus (+50%), total nitrogen (+20%), and planktonic algae such
+ as cyanobacteria (+80%).},
+ doi = {10.1579/0044-7447-34.7.559},
+ tags = {Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{arnell2005,
+ author = {Arnell, N.},
+ title = {Implications of climate change for freshwater inflows to the {A}rctic
+ {O}cean},
+ journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {110},
+ pages = {1--9},
+ number = {D07105},
+ abstract = {Observational evidence suggests that river inflows to the Arctic Ocean
+ have increased over the last 30 years. Continued increases have the
+ potential to alter the freshwater balance in the Arctic and North
+ Atlantic Oceans and hence the thermohaline circulation. Simulations
+ with a macroscale hydrological model and climate change scenarios
+ derived from six climate models and two emissions scenarios suggest
+ increases of up to 31% in river inflows to the Arctic by the 2080s
+ under high emissions and up to 24% under lower emissions, although
+ there are large differences between climate models. Uncertainty analysis
+ suggests low sensitivity to model form and parameterization but higher
+ sensitivity to the input data used to drive the model. The addition
+ of up to 0.048 sverdrup (Sv, 10(6) m(3) s(-1)) is a large proportion
+ of the 0.06-0.15 Sv of additional freshwater that may trigger thermohaline
+ collapse. Changes in the spatial distribution of inflows to the Arctic
+ Ocean may influence circulation patterns within the ocean.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2004JD005348},
+ keywords = {RIVER RUNOFF, BALANCE MODEL, GLOBAL RIVERS, LAND-COVER, DISCHARGE,
+ ICE, CIRCULATION, BASIN, VARIABILITY, SENSITIVITY},
+ tags = {Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{arnell2004,
+ author = {Arnell, N.},
+ title = {Climate change and global water resources: {SRES} emissions and socio--economic
+ scenarios},
+ journal = {Global Environmental Change},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {14},
+ pages = {31--52},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {In 1995, nearly 1400 million people lived in water-stressed watersheds
+ (runoff less than 1000 m3/capita/year), mostly in south west Asia,
+ the Middle East and around the Mediterranean. This paper describes
+ an assessment of the relative effect of climate change and population
+ growth on future global and regional water resources stresses, using
+ SRES socio-economic scenarios and climate projections made using
+ six climate models driven by SRES emissions scenarios. River runoff
+ was simulated at a spatial resolution of 0.5×0.5° under current
+ and future climates using a macro-scale hydrological model, and aggregated
+ to the watershed scale to estimate current and future water resource
+ availability for 1300 watersheds and small islands under the SRES
+ population projections. The A2 storyline has the largest population,
+ followed by B2, then A1 and B1 (which have the same population).
+ In the absence of climate change, the future population in water-stressed
+ watersheds depends on population scenario and by 2025 ranges from
+ 2.9 to 3.3 billion people (36--40% of the world's population). By
+ 2055 5.6 billion people would live in water-stressed watersheds under
+ the A2 population future, and {\grqq}only� 3.4 billion under A1/B1.
+ Climate change increases water resources stresses in some parts of
+ the world where runoff decreases, including around the Mediterranean,
+ in parts of Europe, central and southern America, and southern Africa.
+ In other water-stressed parts of the worldâ€â€particularly in southern
+ and eastern Asiaâ€â€climate change increases runoff, but this may
+ not be very beneficial in practice because the increases tend to
+ come during the wet season and the extra water may not be available
+ during the dry season. The broad geographic pattern of change is
+ consistent between the six climate models, although there are differences
+ of magnitude and direction of change in southern Asia. By the 2020s
+ there is little clear difference in the magnitude of impact between
+ population or emissions scenarios, but a large difference between
+ different climate models: between 374 and 1661 million people are
+ projected to experience an increase in water stress. By the 2050s
+ there is still little difference between the emissions scenarios,
+ but the different population assumptions have a clear effect. Under
+ the A2 population between 1092 and 2761 million people have an increase
+ in stress; under the B2 population the range is 670--1538 million,
+ respectively. The range in estimates is due to the slightly different
+ patterns of change projected by the different climate models. Sensitivity
+ analysis showed that a 10% variation in the population totals under
+ a storyline could lead to variations in the numbers of people with
+ an increase or decrease in stress of between 15% and 20%. The impact
+ of these changes on actual water stresses will depend on how water
+ resources are managed in the future},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.006},
+ keywords = {Climate change impacts, Global water resources, Water resources stresses,
+ SRES emissions scenarios, Macro-scale hydrological model, Multi-decadal
+ variability},
+ tags = {Scenarios}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{arnell2003a,
+ author = {Arnell, N.},
+ title = {Effects of {IPCC SRES} emissions scenarios on river runoff: {A} global
+ perspective},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {7},
+ pages = {619--641},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {This paper describes an assessment of the implications of future climate
+ change for river runoff across the entire world, using six climate
+ models which have been driven by the SRES emissions scenarios. Streamflow
+ is simulated at a spatial resolution of 0.5o×0.5o using a macro-scale
+ hydrological model, and summed to produce total runoff for almost
+ 1200 catchments. The effects of climate change have been compared
+ with the effects of natural multi-decadal climatic variability, as
+ determined from a long unforced climate simulation using HadCM3.
+ By the 2020s, change in runoff due to climate change in approximately
+ a third of the catchments is less than that due to natural variability
+ but, by the 2080s, this falls to between 10 and 30%. The climate
+ models produce broadly similar changes in runoff, with increases
+ in high latitudes, east Africa and south and east Asia, and decreases
+ in southern and eastern Europe, western Russia, north Africa and
+ the Middle East, central and southern Africa, much of North America,
+ most of South America, and south and east Asia. The pattern of change
+ in runoff is largely determined by simulated change in precipitation,
+ offset by a general increase in evaporation. There is little difference
+ in the pattern of change between different emissions scenarios (for
+ a given model), and only by the 2080s is there evidence that the
+ magnitudes of change in runoff vary, with emissions scenario A1FI
+ producing the greatest change and B1 the smallest. The inter-annual
+ variability in runoff increases in most catchments due to climate
+ change -- even though the inter-annual variability in precipitation
+ is not changed -- and the frequency of flow below the current 10-year
+ return period minimum annual runoff increases by a factor of three
+ in Europe and southern Africa and of two across North America. Across
+ most of the world climate change does not alter the timing of flows
+ through the year but, in the marginal zone between cool and mild
+ climates, higher temperatures mean that peak streamflow moves from
+ spring to winter as less winter precipitation falls as snow. The
+ spatial pattern of changes in the 10-year return period maximum monthly
+ runoff follows changes in annual runoff.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-7-619-2003},
+ keywords = {SRES emissions scenarios, climate change impacts on runoff, multi-decadal
+ variability, macro-scale hydrological model, drought frequency, flood
+ frequency},
+ tags = {Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{arnell2003b,
+ author = {Arnell, N.},
+ title = {Relative effects of multi--decadal climatic variability and changes
+ in the mean and variability of climate due to global warming: {F}uture
+ streamflows in {B}ritain},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {270},
+ pages = {195--213},
+ number = {3--4},
+ abstract = {Climate change impact assessments conventionally assess just the implications
+ of a change in mean climate due to global warming. This paper compares
+ such effects of such changes with those due to natural multi-decadal
+ variability, and also explores the effects of changing the year-to-year
+ variability in climate as well as the mean. It estimates changes
+ in mean monthly flows and a measure of low flow (the flow exceeded
+ 95% of,the time) in six catchments in Britain, Using the UKCIP98
+ climate change scenarios and a calibrated hydrological model. Human-induced
+ climate change has a different seasonal effect on flows than natural
+ multi-decadal variability (an increase in winter and decrease in
+ summer), and by the 2050s the climate change signal is apparent in
+ winter and, in lowland Britain, in summer. Superimposing natural
+ multidecadal variability onto the human-induced climate change increases
+ substantially the range in possible future streamflows (in some instances
+ counteracting the climate change signal), with important implications
+ for the development of adaptation strategies. Increased year-to-year
+ variability in climate leads to slight increases in mean monthly
+ flows (relative to changes due just to changes in mean climate),
+ and slightly greater decreases in low flows. The greatest effect
+ on low flows occurs in upland catchments. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science
+ B.V. All rights reserved.},
+ doi = {S0022-1694(02)00288-3},
+ keywords = {climate change impacts on streamflow, Britain, multi-decadal climatic
+ variability, year-to-year variability, low flows, CHANGE SCENARIOS,
+ CHANGE IMPACTS, RUNOFF, MODELS},
+ tags = {Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{arnell1999a,
+ author = {Arnell, N.},
+ title = {The effect of climate change on hydrological regimes in {E}urope:
+ {A} continental perspective},
+ journal = {Global Environmental Change},
+ year = {1999},
+ volume = {9},
+ pages = {5--23},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {This paper outlines the effects of climate change by the 2050s on
+ hydrological regimes at the continental scale in Europe, at a spatial
+ resolution of 0.5 × 0.5°. Hydrological regimes are simulated using
+ a macro-scale hydrological model, operating at a daily time step,
+ and four climate change scenarios are used. There are differences
+ between the four scenarios, but each indicates a general reduction
+ in annual runoff in southern Europe (south of around 50°N), and
+ an increase in the north. In maritime areas there is little difference
+ in the timing of flows, but the range through the year tends to increase
+ with lower flows during summer. The most significant changes in flow
+ regime, however, occur where snowfall becomes less important due
+ to higher temperatures, and therefore both winter runoff increases
+ and spring flow decreases: these changes occur across a large part
+ of eastern Europe. In western maritime Europe low flows reduce, but
+ further east minimum flows will increase as flows during the present
+ low flow season - winter - rise. {\grqq}Drought� was indexed as
+ the maximum total deficit volume below the flow exceeded 95% of the
+ time: this was found to increase in intensity across most of western
+ Europe, but decrease in the east and north. The study attempted to
+ quantify several sources of uncertainty, and showed that the effects
+ of model uncertainty on the estimated change in runoff were generally
+ small compared to the differences between scenarios and the assumed
+ change in global temperature by 2050},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0959-3780(98)00015-6},
+ keywords = {Climate change, River runoff, Europe},
+ mzbnote = {Used in Ph.D thesis},
+ tags = {Scenarios}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{arnell1999b,
+ author = {Arnell, N.},
+ title = {Climate change and global water resources},
+ journal = {Global Environmental Change},
+ year = {1999},
+ volume = {9},
+ pages = {S31--S49},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {By 2025, it is estimated that around 5 billion people, out of a total
+ population of around 8 billion, will be living in countries experiencing
+ water stress (using more than 20% of their available resources).
+ Climate change has the potential to impose additional pressures in
+ some regions. This paper describes an assessment of the implications
+ of climate change for global hydrological regimes and water resources.
+ It uses climate change scenarios developed from Hadley Centre climate
+ simulations (HadCM2 and HadCM3), and simulates global river flows
+ at a spatial resolution of 0.5×0.5° using a macro-scale hydrological
+ model. Changes in national water resources are calculated, including
+ both internally generated runoff and upstream imports, and compared
+ with national water use estimates developed for the United Nations
+ Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater Resources of the World.
+ Although there is variation between scenarios, the results suggest
+ that average annual runoff will increase in high latitudes, in equatorial
+ Africa and Asia, and southeast Asia, and will decrease in mid-latitudes
+ and most subtropical regions. The HadCM3 scenario produces changes
+ in runoff which are often similar to those from the HadCM2 scenarios
+  but there are important regional differences. The rise in temperature
+ associated with climate change leads to a general reduction in the
+ proportion of precipitation falling as snow, and a consequent reduction
+ in many areas in the duration of snow cover. This has implications
+ for the timing of streamflow in such regions, with a shift from spring
+ snow melt to winter runoff. Under the HadCM2 ensemble mean scenario,
+ the number of people living in countries with water stress would
+ increase by 53 million by 2025 (relative to those who would be affected
+ in the absence of climate change). Under the HadCM3 scenario, the
+ number of people living in countries with water stress would rise
+ by 113 million. However, by 2050 there would be a net reduction in
+ populations in stressed countries under HadCM2 (of around 69 million),
+ but an increase of 56 million under HadCM3. The study also showed
+ that different indications of the impact of climate change on water
+ resource stresses could be obtained using different projections of
+ future water use. The paper emphasises the large range between estimates
+ of {\grqq}impact�, and also discusses the problems associated with
+ the scale of analysis and the definition of indices of water resource
+ impac},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0959-3780(99)00017-5},
+ keywords = {Climate change, Global water resources, Global runoff, Hydrological
+ impacts of climate change},
+ mzbnote = {NOT USED in Ph.D thesis},
+ tags = {Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{arnell1992,
+ author = {Arnell, N.},
+ title = {Impacts of climatic change on river flow regimes in {UK}},
+ journal = {Water and Environment Journal},
+ year = {1992},
+ volume = {6},
+ pages = {432--442},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {Much has been written in recent years about the potential threats
+ posed by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This paper summarizes
+ the implications of global warming for hydrological processes in
+ general and river flow characteristics in the UK in particular, emphasizing
+ the present high degree of uncertainty. Current climate change scenarios
+ for the UK imply that rainfall between autumn and spring will increase,
+ and this may have beneficial implications for UK water resources.
+ However, the effect of this increase may be outweighed by higher
+ evapotranspiration. Average annual runoff in a catchment in southern
+ UK may be reduced by around 5% by the middle of the next century,
+ but this estimate is very uncertain: runoff may reduce by 30% or
+ increase by 30%. Runoff in northern and western UK is likely to show
+ a slight increase (but with similarly large confidence intervals).
+ It is probable that river flows in the UK will be much more concentrated
+ in winter than at present. The effect of a given climate change scenario
+ on monthly flow regimes depends on the current summer water balance
+ and on catchment geological conditions.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1747-6593.1992.tb00772.x},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.08.05}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{arnell+al2003,
+ author = {Arnell, N. and Hudson, D. and Jones, R.},
+ title = {Climate change scenarios from a regional climate model: {E}stimating
+ change in runoff in southern {A}frica},
+ journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {108},
+ pages = {4519},
+ number = {D16},
+ abstract = {This paper describes an analysis of different ways of constructing
+ climate change scenarios using output from three climate models.
+ It focuses on using the HadRM3H regional climate model applied across
+ southern Africa and a macroscale runoff model operating at a scale
+ of 0.5 × 0.5° to simulate river runoff. HadRM3H has a spatial resolution
+ of 0.44 × 0.44° and is driven by boundary conditions from HadAM3H,
+ a global atmosphere general circulation model with a spatial resolution
+ of 1.875 × 1.25°. This, in turn, used sea-surface boundary conditions
+ from HadCM3, a coupled global ocean-atmosphere general circulation
+ model that operates at a spatial resolution of 3.75 × 2.5°. Sixteen
+ climate scenarios were constructed from the three models, representing
+ different combinations of model scale, whether the climate model
+ simulations were used directly or changes were applied to an observed
+ baseline, and whether observed or simulated variations from year-to-year
+ were used. The different ways of deriving climate scenarios from
+ a single initial climate model experiment result in a range in change
+ in average annual runoff at a location of at least 10%, and often
+ more than 20%. There is a clear difference in the large-scale spatial
+ pattern of change in runoff from HadCM3 to HadRM3H. Many of the climate
+ features in HadRM3H are already present in HadAM3H simulations, as
+ would be expected from the experimental design. This suggests that
+ for studies over a large geographic domain, an intermediate-resolution
+ global climate model can produce useful scenarios for impact assessments.
+ HadRM3H overestimates rainfall across much of southern Africa and
+ so results in too much runoff: This leads to smaller estimates of
+ future change in runoff than arise when changes in climate are applied
+ to an observed climate baseline. It is concluded that under these
+ circumstances it is preferable to apply modeled changes in climate
+ to observed data to construct climate scenarios rather than derive
+ these directly from the regional climate model simulations. Incorporating
+ increases in interannual variability as simulated by HadRM3H leads
+ to little change in simulated annual mean runoff. However, it has
+ a larger impact on the frequency distributions of runoff, with extreme
+ flows predicted to increase more than mean flows and even to increase
+ in areas where the mean flow decreases. This demonstrates the importance
+ of considering not only changes in mean climate but also climate
+ variability},
+ doi = {10.1029/2002JD002782},
+ keywords = {regional climate model, climate change scenarios, climate change impacts,
+ dynamical downscaling, runoff, southern Africa},
+ tags = {Scenarios, RCMs}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{arnell+al2004,
+ author = {Arnell, N. and Livermore, M. and Kovats, S. and Levy, P. and Nicholls,
+ R. and Parry, M. and Gaffin, S.},
+ title = {Climate and socio--economic scenarios for global-scale climate change
+ impacts assessments: {C}haracterising the {SRES} storylines},
+ journal = {Global Environmental Change},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {14},
+ pages = {3--20},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {This paper describes the way in which the socio-economic projections
+ in the SRES scenarios were applied in a global-scale assessment of
+ the impacts of climate change on food security, water stresses, coastal
+ flood risk and wetland loss, exposure to malaria risk and terrestrial
+ ecosystems. There are two key issues: (i) downscaling from the world-region
+ level of the original scenarios to the scale of analysis (0.5°×0.5°),
+ and (ii) elaborating the SRES narrative storylines to quantify other
+ indicators affecting the impact of climate change. National estimates
+ of population and GDP were derived by assuming that each country
+ changed at the regional rate, and population was downscaled to the
+ 0.5°×0.5° scale assuming that everywhere in a country changed
+ at the same rate. SRES scenarios for future cropland extent were
+ applied to current baseline data, assuming everywhere within a region
+ changed at the same rate. The narrative storylines were used to construct
+ scenarios of future adaptation to the coastal flood risk and malaria
+ risk. The paper compares the SRES scenarios with other global-scale
+ scenarios, and identifies sources of uncertainty. It concludes by
+ recommending three refinements to the use of the SRES scenarios in
+ global and regional-scale impact assessment: (i) improved disaggregation
+ to finer spatial resolutions, using both {\grqq}downscaled narrative
+ storylines� and new technical procedures, (ii) explicit consideration
+ of uncertainty in the population, GDP and land cover characterisations
+ of each storyline, and (iii) use of a wider range of future socio-economic
+ scenarios than provided by SRES if the aim of an impact assessment
+ is to estimate the range of possible future impacts},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.004},
+ keywords = {Socio-economic scenarios, SRES, Climate change impact assessment,
+ Population, Land use change},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, Scenarios}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{arnell1996,
+ author = {Arnell, N. and Reynard, N.},
+ title = {The effects of climate change due to global warming on river flows
+ in {Great Britain}},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {1996},
+ volume = {183},
+ pages = {397--424},
+ number = {3--4},
+ abstract = {Global warming due to an increasing concentration of greenhouse gases
+ in the atmosphere will affect temperature and rainfall, and hence
+ river flows and water resources. This paper presents results from
+ an investigation into potential changes in river flows in 21 catchments
+ in Great Britain, using a daily rainfall-runoff model and both equilibrium
+ and transient climate change scenarios. Annual runoff was simulated
+ to increase by 2050 by over 20% in the wettest scenarios and decline
+ by over 20% in the driest scenarios — and different catchments respond
+ differently to the same change scenario. Monthly flows change by
+ a greater percentage than annual flows, and under all the scenarios
+ considered there would be a greater concentration of flow in winter.
+ Snowfall, and hence snowmelt, would be almost entirely eliminated.
+ Progressive changes in river flows over the next few decades would
+ be small compared with year-to-year variability, but would be noticeable
+ on a decade-to-decade basis.},
+ doi = {10.1016/0022-1694(95)02950-8},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.08.05}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{arnoldfohrer2005,
+ author = {Arnold, J. and Fohrer, N.},
+ title = {{SWAT2000}: current capabilities and research opportunities in applied
+ watershed modelling},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {19},
+ pages = {563-572},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) is a conceptual, continuous
+ time model that was developed in the early 1990s to assist water
+ resource managers in assessing the impact of management and climate
+ on water supplies and non-point source pollution in watersheds and
+ large river basins. SWAT is the continuation of over 30 years of
+ model development within the US Department of Agriculture's Agricultural
+ Research Service and was developed to 'scale up' past field-scale
+ models to large river basins. Model components include weather, hydrology,
+ erosion/sedimentation, plant growth, nutrients, pesticides, agricultural
+ management, stream routing and pond/reservoir routing. The latest
+ version, SWAT2000, has several significant enhancements that include:
+ bacteria transport routines; urban routines; Green and Ampt infiltration
+ equation; improved weather generator; ability to read in daily solar
+ radiation, relative humidity, wind speed and potential ET; Muskingum
+ channel routing; and modified dormancy calculations for tropical
+ areas. A complete set of model documentation for equations and algorithms,
+ a user manual describing model inputs and outputs, and an ArcView
+ interface manual are now complete for SWAT2000. The model has been
+ recoded into Fortran 90 with a complete data dictionary, dynamic
+ allocation of arrays and modular subroutines. Current research is
+ focusing on bacteria, riparian zones, pothole topography, forest
+ growth, channel downcutting and widening, and input uncertainty analysis.},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.5611},
+ keywords = {hydrologic modelling, water quality modelling, environmental policy,
+ SYSTEME HYDROLOGIQUE EUROPEEN, LAND-USE CHANGES, CLIMATE-CHANGE,
+ RUNOFF, SIMULATION, CATCHMENTS, SCALE, BASIN, RIVER, SHE},
+ tags = {SWAT}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{arnold+al2000,
+ author = {Arnold, J. and Muttiah, R. and Srinivasan, R. and Allen, P.},
+ title = {Regional estimation of baseflow and groundwater recharge in the {U}pper
+ {M}ississippi {R}iver {B}asin},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2000},
+ volume = {227},
+ pages = {21--40},
+ number = {1-4},
+ abstract = {Groundwater recharge and discharge (base flow) estimates from two
+ methods were compared in the Upper Mississippi River basin (USGS
+ hydrologic cataloging unit 07). The Upper Mississippi basin drains
+ 491,700 km2 in Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota, and Wisconsin
+ and outlets in the Mississippi River north of Cairo, Illinois. The
+ first method uses the water balance components from the soil and
+ water assessment tool model (SWAT). The model was used to simulate
+ the daily water balance of approximately 16 soil/land use hydrologic
+ response units (HRU) within each of the 131 USGS 8-digit watersheds.
+ The water balance of each HRU is simulated with four storages: snow,
+ soil (up to ten layers), shallow aquifer, and deep aquifer. Groundwater
+ recharge is defined as water that percolates past the bottom soil
+ layer into the shallow aquifer. Recharge is lagged to become base
+ flow and can also be lost to ET. The second method consists of two
+ procedures to estimate base flow and recharge from daily stream flow:
+ (1) a digital recursive filter to separate base flow from daily flow
+ and (2) a modified hydrograph recession curve displacement technique
+ to estimate groundwater recharge. These procedures were applied to
+ 283 USGS stations ranging in area from 50 to 1200 km2. A smoothed
+ surface was obtained using a thin plate spline technique and estimates
+ were averaged for each 8-digit basin. Simulated flow was calibrated
+ against average annual flow for each 8-digit. Without further calibration,
+ simulated monthly stream flow was compared against measured flow
+ at Alton, Illinois (445,000 km2) from 1961{\^a}**1980. To validate
+ the model, measured and simulated monthly stream flow at Alton from
+ 1981{\^a}**1985 were compared with an R2 of 0.65. No attempt was
+ made to calibrate base flow and recharge independent of total stream
+ flow. Base flow and recharge from both methods were shown to be in
+ general agreement. The filter and recession methods have the potential
+ to provide realistic estimates of base flow and recharge for input
+ into regional groundwater models and as a check for surface hydrologic
+ models},
+ bibkey = {Base flow and groundwater recharge; Soil and water assessment tool;
+ SWAT; Filter and recession methods},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0022-1694(99)00139-0},
+ tags = {SWAT}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{arnold+al1999,
+ author = {Arnold, J. and Srinivasan, R. and Muttiah, R. and Allen, P.},
+ title = {Continental scale simulation of the hydrologic balance},
+ journal = {Journal of the American Water Resources Association},
+ year = {1999},
+ volume = {35},
+ pages = {1037--1051},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {This paper describes the application of a continuous daily water balance
+ model called SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) for the conterminous
+ U.S. The local water balance is represented by four control volumes;
+ (1) snow, (2) soil profile, (3) shallow aquifer, and (4) deep aquifer.
+ The components of the water balance are simulated using storage models
+ and readily available input parameters. All the required databases
+ (soils, landuse, and topography) were assembled for the conterminous
+ U.S. at 1:250,000 scale. A GIS interface was utilized to automate
+ the assembly of the model input files from map layers and relational
+ databases. The hydrologic balance for each soil association polygon
+ (78,863 nationwide) was simulated without calibration for 20 years
+ using dominant soil and land use properties. The model was validated
+ by comparing simulated average annual runoff with long term average
+ annual runoff from USGS stream gage records. Results indicate over
+ 45 percent of the modeled U.S. are within 50 mm of measured, and
+ 18 percent are within 10 mm without calibration. The model tended
+ to underpredict runoff in mountain areas due to lack of climate stations
+ at high elevations. Given the limitations of the study, (i.e., spatial
+ resolution of the data bases and model simplicity), the results show
+ that the large scale hydrologic balance can be realistically simulated
+ using a continuous water balance model.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1752-1688.1999.tb04192.x},
+ keywords = {SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), Surface water hydrology, Hydrologic
+ budget, Distributed parameter models, Geographic information systems
+ (GIS), Long term trends, Model validation, Runoff, Evapotranspiration,
+ HUMUS (Hydrologic Unit Modeling of the United States) project},
+ tags = {SWAT, Large Scale}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{arnold+al1998,
+ author = {Arnold, J. and Srinivasan, R. and Muttiah, R. and Williams, J.},
+ title = {Large Area Hydrologic Modeling and Assessment Part {I}: Model Development},
+ journal = {Journal of the American Water Resources Association},
+ year = {1998},
+ volume = {34},
+ pages = {73-89},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {A conceptual, continuous time model called SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment
+ Tool) was developed to assist water resource managers in assessing
+ the impact of management on water supplies and nonpoint source pollution
+ in watersheds and large river basins. The model is currently being
+ utilized in several large area projects by EPA, NOAA, NRCS and others
+ to estimate the off-site impacts of climate and management on water
+ use, non-point source loadings, and pesticide contamination. Model
+ development, operation, limitations, and assumptions are discussed
+ and components of the model are described. In Part II, a GIS input/output
+ interface is presented along with model validation on three basins
+ within the Upper Trinity basin in Texas. },
+ keywords = {SWAT},
+ tags = {SWAT, conceptual model}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{aronica2002,
+ author = {Aronica, G. and Bates, P. and Horritt, M.},
+ title = {Assessing the uncertainty in distributed model predictions using
+ oberved binary pattern information within {GLUE}},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {16},
+ pages = {2001--2002},
+ number = {10},
+ abstract = {In this paper we extend the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation
+ (GLUE) technique to estimate spatially distributed uncertainty in
+ models conditioned against binary pattern data contained in flood
+ inundation maps. Untransformed binary pattern data already have been
+ used within GLUE to estimate domain-averaged (zero-dimensional) likelihoods,
+ yet the pattern information embedded within such sources has not
+ been used to estimate distributed uncertainty. Where pattern information
+ has been used to map distributed uncertainty it has been transformed
+ into a continuous function prior to use, which may introduce additional
+ errors. To solve this problem we use here raw binary pattern data
+ to define a zero-dimensional global performance measure for each
+ simulation in a Monte Carlo ensemble. Thereafter, for each pixel
+ of the distributed model we evaluate the probability that this pixel
+ was inundated. This probability is then weighted by the measure of
+ global model performance, thus taking into account how well a given
+ parameter set performs overall. The result is a distributed uncertainty
+ measure mapped over real space. The advantage of the approach is
+ that it both captures distributed uncertainty and contains information
+ on global likelihood that can be used to condition predictions of
+ further events for which observed data are not available. The technique
+ is applied to the problem of flood inundation prediction at two test
+ sites representing different hydrodynamic conditions. In both cases,
+ the method reveals the spatial structure in simulation uncertainty
+ and simultaneously enables mapping of flood probability predicted
+ by the model. Spatially distributed uncertainty analysis is shown
+ to contain information over and above that available from global
+ performance measures. Overall, the paper highlights the different
+ types of information that may be obtained from mappings of model
+ uncertainty over real and n-dimensional parameter spaces.},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.398},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{aronica1998,
+ author = {Aronica, G. and Hankin, B. and Beven, K.},
+ title = {Uncertainty and equifinality in calibrating distributed roughness
+ coefficients in a flood propagation model with limited data},
+ journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
+ year = {1998},
+ volume = {22},
+ pages = {349--365},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {Monte-Carlo simulations of a two-dimensional finite element model
+ of a flood in the southern part of Sicily were used to explore the
+ parameter space of distributed bed-roughness coefficients. For many
+ real-world events specific data are extremely limited so that there
+ is not only fuzziness in the information available to calibrate the
+ model, but fuzziness in the degree of acceptability of model predictions
+ based upon the different parameter values, owing to model structural
+ errors. Here the GLUE procedure is used to compare model predictions
+ and observations for a certain event, coupled with both a fuzzy-rule-based
+ calibration, and a calibration technique based upon normal and heteroscedastic
+ distributions of the predicted residuals. The fuzzy-rule-based calibration
+ is suited to an event of this kind, where the information about the
+ flood is highly uncertain and arises from several different types
+ of observation. The likelihood (relative possibility) distributions
+ predicted by the two calibration techniques are similar, although
+ the fuzzy approach enabled us to constrain the parameter distributions
+ more usefully, to lie within a range which was consistent with the
+ modellers' a priori knowledge of the system.},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0309-1708(98)00017-7},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{arpe+al2005,
+ author = {Arpe, K. and Hagemann, S. and Jacob, D. and Roeckner, E.},
+ title = {The realism of the {ECHAM5} models to simulate the hydrological cycle
+ in the {A}rctic and {N}orth {E}uropean area},
+ journal = {Nordic Hydrology},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {36},
+ pages = {349--367},
+ number = {4--5},
+ abstract = {A new version of the ECHAM model is investigated in respect of the
+ hydrological cycle in the Arctic and North European area. Several
+ horizontal and two vertical resolution versions are studied. The
+ higher-resolution ECHAM5 models are, in many respects, superior to
+ the lower-resolution versions of the same model family and the older
+ ECHAM4 model. The vertical resolution has a decisive impact but also
+ increased horizontal resolution leads mostly to improvements. Here
+ T106 (about 110?km) often gives the best results. The summer maxima
+ of precipitation, surface temperature and latent heat flux are simulated
+ too early by about a month for several river catchment areas. This
+ shift is strongest in the T106 and T159 models. Another problem with
+ the annual cycle of precipitation is a relative minimum in August
+ to October, especially in the low-resolution ECHAM5 models. The precipitation
+ of the ECHAM5 simulations over the Arctic region exceeds all observational
+ estimates by 5–15?mm/month, strongest in May–June. The latent heat
+ flux over the river catchments has a clear trend towards increased
+ fluxes with higher horizontal and vertical resolution, which seems
+ to reach a maximum with T106. In the comparison of annual mean P-E
+ (precipitation minus evaporation) with observed river discharge only
+ the horizontal resolution seems to be important, again giving best
+ results for the high-resolution models. The year-by-year variability
+ of the simulations is too high, which is more pronounced for the
+ higher-resolution versions. Especially strong impacts are found from
+ the vertical resolution. The interannual variability of the latent
+ heat flux is much smaller than that of precipitation and therefore
+ the results shown for precipitation apply also for the simulated
+ river discharge. Some forcing of ocean temperature anomalies on the
+ precipitation over the Rhine, Kolyma and Indigirka catchment areas
+ have been found, from the northeastern Atlantic and from the Pacific
+ with developing El Niños. Despite the increased random variability
+ in the higher-resolution models, the signal could be detected in
+ almost all simulations. On the whole the higher-resolution (horizontal
+ and vertical) ECHAM5 model simulations are quite improved compared
+ to the low-resolution version of the same model and an older T42
+ model version. Increasing the vertical resolution from 19 to 31 levels
+ is decisive for this better performance.},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.08.04},
+ url = {http://www.iwaponline.com/nh/036/nh0360349.htm}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{arpe1999,
+ author = {Arpe, K. and Roeckner, E.},
+ title = {Simulation of the hydrological cycle over {E}urope: {M}odel validation
+ and impacts of increased greenhouse gases},
+ journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
+ year = {1999},
+ volume = {23},
+ pages = {105--119},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {Different methods of estimating precipitation area means, based on
+ observations, are compared with each other to investigate their usefulness
+ for model validation. For the applications relevant to this study
+ the ECMWF reanalyses provide a good and comprehensive data set for
+ validation. The uncertainties of precipitation analyses, based on
+ observed precipitation or from numerical weather forecasting schemes,
+ are generally in the range of 20% but regionally much larger. The
+ MPI atmospheric general circulation model is able to reproduce long
+ term means of the main features of the hydrological cycle within
+ the range of uncertainty of observational data, even for relatively
+ small areas such as the Rhine river basin. Simulations with the MPI
+ coupled general circulation model, assuming a further increase of
+ anthropogenic greenhouse gases, show clear trends in temperature
+ and precipitation for the next century which would have significant
+ implications for human activity, e.g. a further increase of the sea
+ level of the Caspian Sea and less water in the Rhine and the Danube.
+ We have gained confidence in these results because trends in the
+ temperature and precipitation in the coupled model simulations up
+ to the present are partly confirmed by an atmospheric model simulation
+ forced with observed SSTs and by observational data. We gained further
+ confidence because the simulations with the same coupled model but
+ using constant greenhouse gases do not show such trends. However,
+ doubts arise from the fact that these trends are strong where the
+ systematic errors of the model are large.},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0309-1708(99)00015-9},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.08.04}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{arumugamrao2008,
+ author = {Arumugam, M. and Rao, M.},
+ title = {On the improved performances of the particle swarm optimization algorithms
+ with adaptive parameters, cross-over operators and root mean square
+ ({RMS}) variants for computing optimal control of a class of hybrid
+ systems},
+ journal = {Applied Soft Computing},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {8},
+ pages = {324--336},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {This paper deals with the concept of including the popular genetic
+ algorithm operator, cross-over and root mean square (RMS) variants
+ into particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm to make the convergence
+ faster. Two different PSO algorithms are considered in this paper:
+ the first one is the conventional PSO (cPSO) and the second is the
+ global-local best values based PSO (GLbest-PSO). The GLbest-PSO includes
+ global-local best inertia weight (GLbestIW) with global-local best
+ acceleration coefficient (GLbestAC), whereas the cPSO has a time
+ varying inertia weight (TVIW) and either time varying acceleration
+ coefficient (TVAC) or fixed AC (FAC). The effectiveness of the cross-over
+ operator with both PSO algorithms is tested through a constrained
+ optimal control problem of a class of hybrid systems. The experimental
+ results illustrate the advantage of PSO with cross-over operator,
+ which sharpens the convergence and tunes to the best solution. In
+ order to compare and verify the validity and effectiveness of the
+ new approaches for PSO, several statistical analyses are carried
+ out. The results clearly demonstrate that the GLbest-PSO with the
+ cross-over operator is a very promising optimization technique. Similar
+ conclusions can be made for the GLbest-PSO with RMS variants also},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.asoc.2007.01.010},
+ highlights = {TVc1, TVc2, TVw},
+ keywords = {Particle swarm optimization (PSO), Inertia weight, Acceleration coefficient,
+ Cross-over operators, RMS variants, Optimal control},
+ tags = {PSO, Calibration}
+}
+
+@BOOK{ayyub2006,
+ title = {Uncertainty modeling and analysis in engineering and sciences},
+ publisher = {Chapman \& Hall/CRC},
+ year = {2006},
+ author = {Ayyub, B. and Klir, G.},
+ pages = {368},
+ address = {Florida},
+ edition = {First},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.03.26}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{burger+al2007,
+ author = {B\"urger, C. and Kolditz, O. and Fowler, H. and Blenkinsop, S.},
+ title = {Future climate scenarios and rainfall-runoff modelling in the {U}pper
+ {G}allego catchment ({S}pain)},
+ journal = {Environmental Pollution},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {148},
+ pages = {842--854},
+ number = {3},
+ note = {AquaTerra: Pollutant behavior in the soil, sediment, ground, and
+ surface water system},
+ abstract = {Global climate change may have large impacts on water supplies, drought
+ or flood frequencies and magnitudes in local and regional hydrologic
+ systems. Water authorities therefore rely on computer models for
+ quantitative impact prediction. In this study we present kernel-based
+ learning machine river flow models for the Upper Gallego catchment
+ of the Ebro basin. Different learning machines were calibrated using
+ daily gauge data. The models posed two major challenges: (1) estimation
+ of the rainfall--runoff transfer function from the available time
+ series is complicated by anthropogenic regulation and mountainous
+ terrain and (2) the river flow model is weak when only climate data
+ are used, but additional antecedent flow data seemed to lead to delayed
+ peak flow estimation. These types of models, together with the presented
+ downscaled climate scenarios, can be used for climate change impact
+ assessment in the Gallego, which is important for the future management
+ of the system. Future climate change and data-based rainfall--runoff
+ predictions are presented for the Upper Gallego.},
+ bibkey = {climate change, rainfall-runoff, hydrology, kernel-methods, weather
+ scenarios},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2007.02.002},
+ issn = {0269-749},
+ tags = {Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{burgerchen2005,
+ author = {B\"urger, G. and Chen, Y.},
+ title = {Regression--based downscaling of spatial variability for hydrologic
+ applications},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {311},
+ pages = {299--317},
+ number = {1--4},
+ abstract = {There is an obvious imbalance between, on the one hand, the importance
+ of spatio-temporal variability of precipitation for river flows and,
+ on the other, their representation in current empirical downscaling
+ models that are applied for climate scenarios. The imperfect variability
+ results from incomplete forcing of the large scales. The last IPCC
+ report mentioned three regression-based methods that try to overcome
+ the imperfection of point-wise variability: randomization, inflation,
+ and expanded downscaling, Here, we analyze and compare these methods
+ with respect to their spatial variability and how that relates to
+ river runoff. Using the downscaled temperature and precipitation
+ for observed and simulated large-scale forcings (climate scenarios),
+ we applied the hydrologic model HBV for two river basins in Germany.
+ We discuss the obvious and hidden model imperfections regarding present
+ and future precipitation climate, along with their relevance for
+ runoff. The overall picture is quite diverse, and it appears that
+ temporal characteristics, i.e. time-lagged effects, are at least
+ as important as spatial characteristics. We conclude that, although
+ the models agree in a number of essential projections for river flow,
+ a more consistent picture requires the full spatio-temporal variability
+ as it depends on the large scale atmosphere},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.01.025},
+ keywords = {Downscaling, Randomization, Inflation, Expanded downscaling, Hydrological
+ scenarios, Spatial correlations},
+ tags = {Downscaling}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{bader+al2008,
+ author = {Bader, D. and Covey, C. and {Gutowski Jr.}, W. and Held, I. and Kunkel,
+ K. and Miller, R. and Tokmakian, R. and Zhang, M.},
+ title = {Climate models: {A}n assessment of strengths and limitations},
+ institution = {U.S. Climate Change Science Program},
+ year = {2008},
+ month = {July},
+ note = {[Online; last accessed April-2010]},
+ tags = {Climate Models},
+ url = {http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap3-1/final-report/sap3-1-final-all.pdf}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{baguis+al2010,
+ author = {Baguis, P. and Roulin, E. and Willems, P. and Ntegeka, V.},
+ title = {Climate change and hydrological extremes in {B}elgian catchments},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {7},
+ pages = {5033--5078},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {In this study we focus our attention on the climate change impacts
+ on the hydrological balance in Belgium. There are two main rivers
+ in the country, the Scheldt and the Meuse, supplied with water almost
+ exclusively by precipitation. With the climate change projected by
+ climate models for the end of the current century, one would expect
+ that the hydrological regime of the rivers may be affected mainly
+ through the changes in precipitation patterns and the increased potential
+ evapotranspiration (PET) due to increased temperature throughout
+ the year. We examine the hydrology of two important tributaries of
+ the rivers Scheldt and Meuse, the Gete and the Ourthe, respectively.
+ Our analysis is based on simulations with the SCHEME hydrological
+ model and on climate change data from the European PRUDENCE project.
+ Two emission scenarios are considered, the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios,
+ and the perturbation (or delta) method is used in order to assess
+ the climate change signal at monthly time scale and provide appropriate
+ input time series for the hydrological simulations. The ensemble
+ of climate change scenarios used allows us to estimate the combined
+ model and scenario uncertainty in the streamflow calculations, inherent
+ to this kind of analysis. In this context, we also analyze extreme
+ river flows using two probability distribution families, allowing
+ us to quantify the shift of the extremes under climate change conditions.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hessd-7-5033-2010},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.08.03}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{baigorria2007,
+ author = {Baigorria, G. and Jones, J. and Shin, {D.-W.} and Mishra, A. and
+ {O'Brien}, J.},
+ title = {Assessing uncertainties in crop model simulations using daily bias-corrected
+ regional circulation model outputs},
+ journal = {Climate Research},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {34},
+ pages = {211--222},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {Outputs from the Florida State University/Center for Ocean-Atmospheric
+ Prediction Studies (FSU/COAPS) regional spectral model were linked
+ to the CERES-Maize dynamic crop model, and the sources of uncertainty
+ in yield prediction at 3 sites in the southeastern USA were examined.
+ Daily incoming solar radiation, Tmax and Tmin, and rainfall output
+ data were obtained from 1987 to 2004 of retrospective forecasts (hindcasts)
+ that contained 20 ensemble members. These raw hindcasts were bias-corrected
+ on their cumulative probability functions by using the historical
+ daily weather records prior to the 18 yr hindcasted period. Six combinations
+ of the 4 meteorological variables from raw and bias-corrected hindcasts
+ and climatological values were used as sets of weather inputs into
+ the CERES-Maize crop model. Uncertainties related to these combinations
+ of sets of weather inputs were analyzed. The bias-correction method
+ improved values of monthly statistics of the ensemble compared to
+ the raw hindcasts in relation to the observed data. The number and
+ length of dry spells were also made more accurate with this correction.
+ The main source of uncertainty in linking the FSU/COAPS climate model
+ to the CERES-Maize crop model was the specific timing of the occurrence
+ of dry spells during the cropping seasons. Plant growth stress caused
+ by soil water deficit during crucial phenological states largely
+ affects simulated yields. Operationally, the inability of FSU/COAPS
+ to accurately predict the timing of the occurrence of dry spells
+ makes its climate forecasts less useful for farmers wishing to optimize
+ planting dates and crop varieties for crops with short crucial phenological
+ phases, such as maize.},
+ doi = {10.3354/cr00703},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.07.29}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{baltarfontane2008,
+ author = {Baltar, Alexandre M. and Fontane, Darrell G.},
+ title = {Use of Multiobjective Particle Swarm Optimization in Water Resources
+ Management},
+ journal = {Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {134},
+ pages = {257},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {Water resources management presents a large variety of multiobjective
+ problems that require powerful optimization tools in order to fully
+ characterize the existing trade-offs. Different optimization methods,
+ based on mathematical programming at first and on evolutionary computation
+ more recently, have been applied with various degrees of success.
+ This paper explores the use of a relatively recent heuristic technique
+ called particle swarm optimization (PSO), which has been found to
+ perform very well in a wide spectrum of optimization problems. Many
+ extensions of the single-objective PSO to handle multiple objectives
+ have been proposed in the evolutionary computation literature. This
+ paper presents an implementation of multiobjective particle swarm
+ optimization (MOPSO) that evaluates alternative solutions based on
+ Pareto dominance, using an external repository to store nondominated
+ solutions, a fitness sharing approach to promote diversity, and a
+ mutation operator to improve global search. The MOPSO solver is used
+ on three applications: (1) test function for comparison with results
+ of other MOPSO and other evolutionary algorithms reported in the
+ literature; (2) multipurpose reservoir operation problem with up
+ to four objectives; and (3) problem of selective withdrawal from
+ a thermally stratified reservoir with three objectives. In the test
+ function application, standard performance metrics were used to measure
+ closeness to the true Pareto front and evenness of coverage of the
+ nondominated set. Results for the other two applications are compared
+ to Pareto solutions obtained using the ε-constraint method with nonlinear
+ optimization (ε-NLP). MOPSO performed very well when compared with
+ other evolutionary algorithms for the test function and also provided
+ encouraging results on the water management applications with the
+ advantage of being much simpler than the ε-NLP approach.},
+ doi = {10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2008)134:3(257)},
+ tags = {PSO}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{basu+al2010,
+ author = {Basu, N. and Rao, P. and Winzeler, H. and Kumar, S. and Owens, P.
+ and Merwade, V.},
+ title = {Parsimonious modeling of hydrologic responses in engineered watersheds:
+ Structural heterogeneity versus functional homogeneity},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {46},
+ pages = {W04501},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {The central premise of this paper is that extensive modifications
+ of land use and hydrology, coupled with intensive management of watersheds
+ in the Midwestern United States over the past century, have increased
+ the predictability of hydrologic responses, allowing for the use
+ of simpler, minimum-calibration models. In these engineered watersheds,
+ extensive tile-and-ditch networks have increased the effective drainage
+ density and have created bypass flow hydrologic systems that generate
+ {``}flashy{''} and {``}predictable{''} hydrographs. We propose a
+ simple, threshold-based model, the Threshold-Exceedance-Lagrangian
+ Model (TELM), for predicting event hydrographs. TELM was evaluated
+ by comparing predicted hydrographs with those measured over a 4 year
+ period at the outlet of a mesoscale watershed (Cedar Creek, {$\sim$}700
+ km2) in northeastern Indiana. Application of the Soil-Land Inference
+ Model (SoLIM) indicated that, despite structural heterogeneities
+ (e.g., spatial variability in soil taxonomic mapping units), about
+ 80\% of the area of the watershed could be assigned a single value
+ of available soil water storage, which was the primary soil parameter
+ that defined hydrograph response. Hydrograph recession curves for
+ multiple events were described well using an exponential function,
+ with the mean arrival time (tr) estimated on the basis of the contributing
+ drainage area (A) and the mean occurrence time (th) of the event
+ hyetograph. Also, functional responses (event hydrographs) at the
+ subwatershed scale could be grouped into just two categories on the
+ basis of only spatial variability in rainfall patterns. TELM, with
+ no parameter calibration, matched the observed hydrographs as well
+ as the widely used SWAT model predictions with calibration. Advantages
+ and limitations of the proposed modeling approach were identified,
+ and needed improvements were discussed},
+ doi = {10.1029/2009WR007803},
+ tags = {Disturbed Catchments}
+}
+
+@INPROCEEDINGS{batelaan2001,
+ author = {Batelaan, O. and {De Smedt}, F.},
+ title = {Wet{S}pass: {A} flexible {GIS} based, distributed recharge methodology
+ for regional groundwater modelling},
+ booktitle = {Impact of Human Activity on Groundwater Dynamics},
+ year = {2001},
+ editor = {Gehers, H. and Peters, J. and Hoehn, E. and Jensen, K. and Leibundgut,
+ C. and Griffioen, J. and Webb, B. and Zaadnoordijk, W.},
+ pages = {11--17},
+ address = {Wallingford},
+ publisher = {IAHS},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ refid = {BATELAAN2001},
+ timestamp = {2008.11.04}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{batelaan2007a,
+ author = {Batelaan, O. and {De Smedt}, F.},
+ title = {G{IS}--based recharge estimation by coupling surface--subsurface
+ water balances},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {337},
+ pages = {337--355},
+ number = {3--4},
+ abstract = {A spatially distributed water balance model is developed to simulate
+ long-term average recharge depending on land cover, soil texture,
+ topography and hydrometeorological parameters. The model simulates
+ recharge iteratively connected to a groundwater model, such that
+ the recharge estimate is also influenced by the groundwater depth
+ and vice versa. Parameter estimation for the model is performed on
+ the basis of literature values of water balance fluxes from mainly
+ Belgium and The Netherlands. By graphical and non-linear baseflow
+ separation for 17 catchments it is shown that recharge spatially
+ varies considerably. The water balance model coupled to a regional
+ groundwater model is applied and successfully tested on the 17 catchments.
+ The application shows that the resulting recharge has a spatial complex
+ pattern, depending to a large extend on the soil texture and land
+ cover. Moreover, shallow groundwater levels in valleys cause negative
+ recharge conditions as a result of evapotranspiration by abundant
+ phreatophytic vegetation. GIS analysis shows how recharge strongly
+ varies for different combinations of land cover and soil texture
+ classes. The performed analysis provides a better insight into the
+ sustenance and management of groundwater resources.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.02.001},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ refid = {BATELAAN2007},
+ timestamp = {2008.11.04}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{batelaan2004,
+ author = {Batelaan, O. and {De Smedt}, F.},
+ title = {S{EEPAGE}, a new {MODFLOW DRAIN} {P}ackage},
+ journal = {Ground Water},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {42},
+ pages = {576--588},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {The prediction of the location of ground water discharge areas is
+ a key aspect for the protection and (re)development of ground water-dependent
+ wetlands. Ground water discharge areas can be simulated with MODFLOW
+ using the DRAIN package by setting the drain level equal to the topography,
+ while the conductance is mostly set to an arbitrary high value. However,
+ conceptual and practical problems arise in the calculation of the
+ ground water discharge by the DRAIN package as calculated water tables
+ above the land surface, difficult parameterization of the conductance,
+ and large water balance errors. To overcome these problems, a new
+ SEEPAGE package for MODFLOW is proposed. The basic idea of this package
+ is an adaptable constant head cell. It has a variable head, unless
+ the ground water rises above the seepage level, in which case it
+ has a constant head cell. The estimation of the ground water discharge
+ location along a homogeneous, isotropic, linear sloping profile is
+ used to verify the model and to compare it to the DRAIN solution.
+ In an application to three basins in Belgium, it is shown that the
+ SEEPAGE package can be used in combination with the DRAIN package
+ in situations where an upper boundary for a free water table and
+ additional resistance for drainage is required. It is clearly demonstrated
+ that the identification and delineation of regional ground water
+ discharge areas is more accurate using the SEEPAGE package.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1745-6584.2004.tb02626.x},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ refid = {BATELAAN2004},
+ timestamp = {2008.11.04}
+}
+
+@INCOLLECTION{batelaan1998,
+ author = {Batelaan, O. and {De Smedt}, F. and {De Becker}, P. and Huybrechts,
+ W.},
+ title = {Characterization of a regional groundwater discharge area by combined
+ analysis of hydrochemistry, remote sensing and groundwater modelling.},
+ booktitle = {Shallow {G}roundwater {S}ystems. {I}nternational contributions to
+ hydrogeology 18},
+ publisher = {A.A. Balkema},
+ year = {1998},
+ editor = {Dillon, P. and Simmers, I.},
+ pages = {75--86},
+ address = {Rotterdam},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ refid = {BATELAAN1998},
+ timestamp = {2008.11.04}
+}
+
+@INPROCEEDINGS{batelaan1993,
+ author = {Batelaan, O. and {De Smedt}, F. and {Otero Valle}, M. and Huybrechts,
+ W.},
+ title = {Development and application of a groundwater model integrated in
+ the {GIS GRASS}},
+ booktitle = {Application of geographic information systems in hydrology and water
+ resources management},
+ year = {1993},
+ editor = {Kovar, K. and Nachtebel, H.},
+ pages = {581--590},
+ address = {Vienna, Austria},
+ publisher = {IAHS Publ. No 211},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ refid = {BATELAAN1993},
+ timestamp = {2008.11.04}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{batelaan2007b,
+ author = {Batelaan, O. and Meyus, Y. and {De Smedt}, F.},
+ title = {De grondwatervoeding van {V}laanderen},
+ journal = {Water},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {28},
+ pages = {64--71},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ refid = {BATELAAN2007A},
+ timestamp = {2008.11.04},
+ url = {http://www.tijdschriftwater.be/water28-15HI.pdf}
+}
+
+@BOOK{batesanderson2001,
+ title = {Model Validation - Perspectives In Hydrological Science},
+ publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons},
+ year = {2001},
+ editor = {Bates, P. and Anderson, M.},
+ author = {Bates, P. and Anderson, M.},
+ note = {ISBN: 0471985724 ISBN-13: 9780471985723},
+ abstract = {Description Eighteen chapters discuss various issues surrounding the
+ assessment of models currently used in hydrology and environmental
+ science for prediction and process understanding. Two common threads
+ running throughout the book are the immaturity of the field and the
+ lack of data. Topics include calibration and equifinality, models
+ in the courtroom, data-based mechanistic modeling and validation
+ of rainfall-flow processes, the use of remote sensing to validate
+ hydrological models, snow models, ice-sheet models, modeling water
+ quality processes in riverine systems, and modeling sediment entrainment
+ into transport and deposition in rivers. Annotation c. Book News,
+ Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com) },
+ altauthor = {Anderson},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{bathurst+al2004,
+ author = {Bathurst, J. and Ewen, J. and Parkin, G. and {O'Connel}, P. and Cooper,
+ J.},
+ title = {Validation of catchment models for predicting land--use and climate
+ change impacts. 3. {B}lind validation for internal and outlet responses},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {287},
+ pages = {74},
+ number = {1--4},
+ abstract = {The capability of the physically based, distributed SHETRAN catchment
+ modelling system for predictive modelling of hypothetical future
+ catchments is validated for the 0.94 km2 Slapton Wood catchment in
+ southwest England. A ‘blind’ procedure (without sight of measured
+ response data) is used which accounts also for uncertainty in model
+ parameter evaluation. Internal catchment conditions as well as the
+ outlet discharge are considered, making the test perhaps the severest
+ to which a model can be subjected. Data collection formed an integral
+ part of the validation procedure and was designed specifically to
+ satisfy the needs of the modelling component. The extensive dataset
+ which was collected included rainfall, evapotranspiration, soil property
+ data, channel geometry, phreatic surface elevation, soil water potential
+ and stream discharge. Following a prescribed method, blind predictions
+ were made of ten features of the phreatic surface, soil water potential
+ and surface runoff responses. Output uncertainty bounds were determined
+ as a function of uncertainty in the model parameter values. Subsequent
+ comparison of the bounds with the measured data showed that eight
+ of the ten predictions passed the specified success criteria, constituting
+ a successful validation. Within reasonable uncertainty bounds, and
+ on a spatially distributed basis, SHETRAN is shown able to represent
+ the annual catchment water balance as well as important features
+ of the event-scale response. The results are an encouraging demonstration
+ of the fitness of such models for predictive modelling.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.09.021},
+ tags = {Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{bavay2009,
+ author = {Bavay, M. and Lehning M. and Jonas, T. and Lowe, H.},
+ title = {Simulaions of future snow cover and discharge in {Alpine} headwater
+ catchments},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {23},
+ pages = {95--108},
+ number = {1},
+ month = {December},
+ abstract = {The snow cover in the Alps is heavily affected by climate change.
+ Recent data show that at altitudes below 1200 m a.s.l. a time-continuous
+ winter snow cover is becoming an exception rather than the rule.
+ This would also change the timing and characteristics of river discharge
+ in Alpine catchments. We present an assessment of future snow and
+ runoff in two Alpine catchments, the larger Inn catchment (1945 km2)
+ and the smaller Dischma catchment (43 km2), based on two common climate
+ change scenario (IPCC A2 and B2 (IPCC, 2007)). [etc]. The changes
+ in snow cover and discharge are predicted using Alpine3D, a model
+ for the high-resolution simulation of Alpine surface processes, in
+ particular snow, soil and vegetation processes. The predicted changes
+ in snow and discharge are extreme. While the current climate still
+ supports permanent snow and ice on the highest peaks at altitudes
+ above 3000 m a.s.l., this zone would disappear under the future climate
+ scenarios. The changes in snow cover could be summarized by approximately
+ shifting the elevation zones down by 900 m. The corresponding changes
+ in discharge are also severe: while the current climate scenario
+ shows a significant contribution from snow melt until middle to late
+ summer, the future climate scenarios would feature a much narrower
+ snow melt discharge peak in spring. A further observation is that
+ heavy precipitation events in the fall would change from mainly snow
+ to mainly rain and would have a higher probability of producing flooding.
+ Future work is needed to quantify the effect of model uncertainties
+ on such predictions.},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.7195},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.08.10}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{bayer+al2010,
+ author = {Bayer, P. and {de Paly}, M. and B\"urger, C.},
+ title = {Optimization of high-reliability-based hydrological design problems
+ by robust automatic sampling of critical model realizations},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {46},
+ pages = {W05504},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {This study demonstrates the high efficiency of the so-called stack-ordering
+ technique for optimizing a groundwater management problem under uncertain
+ conditions. The uncertainty is expressed by multiple equally probable
+ model representations, such as realizations of hydraulic conductivity.
+ During optimization of a well-layout problem for contaminant control,
+ a ranking mechanism is applied that extracts those realizations that
+ appear most critical for the optimization problem. It is shown that
+ this procedure works well for evolutionary optimization algorithms,
+ which are to some extent robust against noisy objective functions.
+ More precisely, differential evolution (DE) and the Covariance Matrix
+ Adaptation Evolution Strategy (CMA-ES) are applied. Stack ordering
+ is comprehensively investigated for a plume management problem at
+ a hypothetical template site based on parameter values measured at
+ and on a geostatistical model developed for the Lauswiesen study
+ site near T{\"u}bingen, Germany. The straightforward procedure yields
+ computational savings above 90\% in comparison to always evaluating
+ the full set of realizations. This is confirmed by cross testing
+ with four additional validation cases. The results show that both
+ evolutionary algorithms obtain highly reliable near-optimal solutions.
+ DE appears to be the better choice for cases with significant noise
+ caused by small stack sizes. On the other hand, there seems to be
+ a problem-specific threshold for the evaluation stack size above
+ which the CMA-ES achieves solutions with both better fitness and
+ higher reliability.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2009WR008081},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{beck1987,
+ author = {Beck, M.},
+ title = {Water quality modeling: a review of the analysis of uncertainty},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1987},
+ volume = {23},
+ pages = {1393--1442},
+ number = {8},
+ abstract = {This paper reviews the role of uncertainty in the identification of
+ mathematical models of water quality and in the application of these
+ models to problems of prediction. More specifically, four problem
+ areas are examined in detail: uncertainty about model structure,
+ uncertainty in the estimated model parameter values, the propagation
+ of prediction errors, and the design of experiments in order to reduce
+ the critical uncertainties associated with a model. The review is
+ rather lengthy, and it has therefore been prepared in effect as two
+ papers. There is a shorter, largely nontechnical version, which gives
+ a quick impression of the current and future issues in the analysis
+ of uncertainty in water quality modeling. Enclosed by this shorter
+ discussion is the main body of the review dealing in turn with (1)
+ identifiability and experimental design, (2) the generation of preliminary
+ model hypotheses under conditions of sparse, grossly uncertain field
+ data, (3) the selection and evaluation of model structure, (4) parameter
+ estimation (model calibration), (5) checks and balances on the identified
+ model, i.e., model {``}verification{''} and model discrimination,
+ and (6) prediction error propagation. Much time is spent in discussing
+ the algorithms of system identification, in particular, the methods
+ of recursive estimation, and in relating these algorithms and the
+ subject of identification to the problems of prediction uncertainty
+ and first-order error analysis. There are two obvious omissions from
+ the review. It is not concerned primarily with either the development
+ and solution of stochastic differential equations or the issue of
+ decision making under uncertainty, although clearly some reference
+ must be made to these topics. In brief, the review concludes (not
+ surprisingly) that much work has been done on the analysis of uncertainty
+ in the development of mathematical models of water quality, and much
+ remains to be done. A lack of model identifiability has been an outstanding
+ difficulty in the interpretation and explanation of past observed
+ system behavior, and there is ample evidence to show that the {``}larger,{''}
+ more {``}comprehensive{''} models are easily capable of generating
+ highly uncertain predictions of future behavior. For the future of
+ the subject, it is speculated that there is the possibility of progress
+ in the development of novel algorithms for model structure identification,
+ a need for new questions to be posed in the problem of prediction,
+ and a distinct challenge to the conventional views of this review
+ in the new forms of knowledge representation and manipulation now
+ emerging from the field of artificial intelligence},
+ doi = {10.1029/WR023i008p01393},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, Water Quality}
+}
+
+@BOOK{beirlant+al2004,
+ title = {Statistics of extremes - Theory and applications},
+ publisher = {Wiley},
+ year = {2004},
+ author = {Beirlant, J. and Goegebeur, Y. and Segers, J. and Teugels, J. and
+ {De Waal}, D. and Ferro, C.},
+ pages = {522},
+ series = {Wiley series in probability and statistics},
+ address = {Chichester},
+ edition = {First},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.08.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{bekelenicklow2007,
+ author = {Bekele, E. and Nicklow, J.},
+ title = {Multi-objective automatic calibration of {SWAT} using {NSGA-II}},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {341},
+ pages = {165--176},
+ abstract = {This paper presents a diagnostic study on muttiobjective, automatic
+ calibration of a physically based, semi-distributed watershed model
+ known as Soil and Water Assessment Too[ (SWAT). Unlike lumped models,
+ distributed models involve large number of calibration parameters,
+ representing the spatial heterogeneity of inputs and various physical
+ processes within a watershed. An automatic calibration routine is
+ developed using the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II)
+ that has been proved to be an effective and efficient muttiobjective
+ search technique in various applications. The automatic routine is
+ capable of incorporating multiple objectives into the calibration
+ process and also employs parameterization to help reduce the number
+ of calibration parameters. In this study, SWAT is calibrated for
+ daily streamftow and sediment concentration. Two calibration scenarios
+ have been considered; the first scenario uses specific objective
+ functions to fit different portions of the time series whereas in
+ the second scenario, the calibration is performed using data from
+ multiple gauging stations, simultaneously. In addition, two cases
+ of parameter distribution have been considered in the second scenario
+ during parameterization. The application results show that the approach
+ is consistent and effective in estimating parameters of the model.
+ The use of multiple objectives during the calibration process resulted
+ in improved model performance and the second scenario, in particular,
+ provided better results partly due to the respective location of
+ the gauging stations within the watershed. Further distribution of
+ parameters during parameterization also resulted in better sediment
+ simulation. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. AR rights reserved.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.05.014},
+ keywords = {distributed hydrologic models, automatic calibration, multi-objective
+ evolutionary algorithms, multiple calibration objectives, RUNOFF
+ MODEL, OPTIMIZATION, SENSITIVITY, VALIDATION, OBJECTIVES, MULTIPLE},
+ tags = {SWAT, Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{beldring+al2008,
+ author = {Beldring, S. and {Engen-Skaugen}, T. and F{\o}rland, E. and Roald,
+ L.},
+ title = {Climate change impacts on hydrological processes in {Norway} based
+ on two methods for transferring regional climate model results to
+ meteorological station sites},
+ journal = {Tellus {A}},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {60},
+ pages = {439--450},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {Climate change impacts on hydrological processes in Norway have been
+ estimated through combination of results from the IPCC SRES A2 and
+ B2 emission scenarios, global climate models from the Hadley Centre
+ and the Max-Planck Institute, and dynamical downscaling using the
+ RegClim HIRHAM regional climate model. Temperature and precipitation
+ simulations from the regional climate model were transferred to meteorological
+ station sites using two different approaches, the delta change or
+ perturbation method and an empirical adjustment procedure that reproduces
+ observed monthly means and standard deviations for the control period.
+ These climate scenarios were used for driving a spatially distributed
+ version of the HBV hydrological model, yielding a set of simulations
+ for the baseline period 1961–1990 and projections of climate change
+ impacts on hydrological processes for the period 2071–2100. A comparison
+ between the two methods used for transferring regional climate model
+ results to meteorological station sites is provided by comparing
+ the results from the hydrological model for basins located in different
+ parts of Norway. Projected changes in runoff are linked to changes
+ in the snow regime. Snow cover will be more unstable and the snowmelt
+ flood will occur earlier in the year. Increased rainfall leads to
+ higher runoff in the autumn and winter.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0870.2008.00306.x},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.08.03}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{bell2007,
+ author = {Bell, V. and Kay, A. and Jones, R. and Moore, R.},
+ title = {Use of a grid-based hydrological model and regional climate model
+ outputs to assess changing flood risk},
+ journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {27},
+ pages = {1657--1674},
+ number = {12},
+ abstract = {A grid-based flow routing and runoff-production model, configured
+ to employ regional climate model (RCM) precipitation estimates as
+ input, is used to assess the effects of climate change on river flows
+ in catchments across the UK. This model, the Grid-to-Grid model or
+ G2G, has previously been calibrated and assessed with respect to
+ observed river flows under current climate conditions. Here, the
+ G2G distributed model together with a lumped catchment model, the
+ parameter-generalized PDM, are applied to simulate river flow and
+ derive flood frequency curves. Two sets of RCM precipitation time-series,
+ on a 25-km grid and at hourly intervals, are used: (1) Current (1961–1990)
+ and (2) Future (2071–2100). The effect of one extreme rainfall event
+ in the current precipitation series is to raise the estimated peak
+ flows for some catchments for high return periods under present day
+ rainfall conditions. The future flow series does not contain a comparable
+ flow peak. This significantly affects comparison of the flood frequency
+ curves derived from the flow simulations obtained using the current
+ and future precipitation estimates. Such variability in the results
+ and the dependence on one or two extreme rainfall events emphasizes
+ the need to examine more than one set of current/future precipitation
+ scenarios for flood impact studies.
+
+ In the absence of a formal ensemble of climate predictions, a resampling
+ method is used to investigate the robustness of the modelled changes
+ in flood frequency. Changes in flood frequency at higher return periods
+ are, not surprisingly, found to be generally less robust than at
+ lower return periods. This is particularly the case for catchments
+ in the south and east of England, which were especially affected
+ by the extreme rainfall event in the current precipitation series.},
+ doi = {10.1002/joc.1539},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.25}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{psoptim2012,
+ author = {Bendtsen, C.},
+ title = {{Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) Package 1.0.3}},
+ institution = {{R Foundation for Statistical Computing}},
+ year = {2012},
+ abstract = {The package provides an implementation of PSO consistent with the
+ standard PSO 2007 by Maurice Clerc et al. Additionally a number of
+ ancillary routines are provided for easy testing and graphics.},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.11.28},
+ url = {http://cran.r-project.org/}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{beniston+al2007,
+ author = {Beniston, Martin and Stephenson, David and Christensen, Ole and Ferro,
+ Christopher and Frei, Christoph and Goyette, Stéphane and Halsnaes,
+ Kirsten and Holt, Tom and Jylhä, Kirsti and Koffi, Brigitte and Palutikof,
+ Jean and Schöll, Regina and Semmler, Tido and Woth, Katja},
+ title = {Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional
+ climate model projections},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {81},
+ pages = {71-95},
+ abstract = {This paper presents an overview of changes in the extreme events that
+ are most likely to affect Europe in forthcoming decades. A variety
+ of diagnostic methods are used to determine how heat waves, heavy
+ precipitation, drought, wind storms, and storm surges change between
+ present (1961–90) and future (2071–2100) climate on the basis of
+ regional climate model simulations produced by the PRUDENCE project.
+ A summary of the main results follows. Heat waves – Regional surface
+ warming causes the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves
+ to increase over Europe. By the end of the twenty first century,
+ countries in central Europe will experience the same number of hot
+ days as are currently experienced in southern Europe. The intensity
+ of extreme temperatures increases more rapidly than the intensity
+ of more moderate temperatures over the continental interior due to
+ increases in temperature variability. Precipitation – Heavy winter
+ precipitation increases in central and northern Europe and decreases
+ in the south; heavy summer precipitation increases in north-eastern
+ Europe and decreases in the south. Mediterranean droughts start earlier
+ in the year and last longer. Winter storms – Extreme wind speeds
+ increase between 45°N and 55°N, except over and south of the Alps,
+ and become more north-westerly than cuurently. These changes are
+ associated with reductions in mean sea-level pressure, leading to
+ more North Sea storms and a corresponding increase in storm surges
+ along coastal regions of Holland, Germany and Denmark, in particular.
+ These results are found to depend to different degrees on model formulation.
+ While the responses of heat waves are robust to model formulation,
+ the magnitudes of changes in precipitation and wind speed are sensitive
+ to the choice of regional model, and the detailed patterns of these
+ changes are sensitive to the choice of the driving global model.
+ In the case of precipitation, variation between models can exceed
+ both internal variability and variability between different emissions
+ scenarios.},
+ affiliation = {University of Geneva Climate Research Geneva Switzerland},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10584-006-9226-z},
+ issn = {0165-0009},
+ issue = {0},
+ keyword = {Earth and Environmental Science},
+ publisher = {Springer Netherlands}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{bergstrom+al2001,
+ author = {Bergstr\"om, S. and Carlsson, B. and Gardelin, M. and Lindstr\"om,
+ G. and Pettersson, A. and Rummukainen, M.},
+ title = {Climate change impacts on runoff in {S}weeden--{A}ssessments by global
+ climate models, dynamical downscaling and hydrological modelling},
+ journal = {Climate Research},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {16},
+ pages = {101--112},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {The Swedish regional climate modelling programme, SWECLIM, started
+ in 1997 with the main goal being to produce regional climate change
+ scenarios over the Nordic area on a time scale of 50 to 100 yr. An
+ additional goal is to produce water resources scenarios with a focus
+ on hydropower production, dam safety, water supply and environmental
+ aspects of water resources. The scenarios are produced by a combination
+ of global climate models (GCMs), regional climate models and hydrological
+ runoff models. The GCM simulations used thus far are 10 yr time slices
+ from 2 different GCMs, UKMO HadCM2 from the Hadley Centre and the
+ ECHAM4/OPYC3 of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. The regional
+ climate model is a modified version of the international HIRLAM forecast
+ model and the hydrological model is the HBV model developed at the
+ Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. Scenarios of river
+ runoff have been simulated for 6 selected basins covering the major
+ climate regions in Sweden. Changes in runoff totals, runoff regimes
+ and extreme values have been analysed with a focus on the uncertainties
+ introduced by the choice of GCM and routines for estimation of evapotranspiration
+ in the hydrological model. It is further shown how these choices
+ affect the statistical return periods of future extremes in a design
+ situation.},
+ doi = {10.3354/cr016101},
+ file = {:E\:\\rojasro\\My Documents\\articles\\Climate change impacts on runoff in Sweeden-Assessments by global climate models, dynamical downscaling and hydrological modelling (Bergstrom et al. 2001).pdf:PDF},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, Climate Change}
+}
+
+@BOOK{bernardosmith2000,
+ title = {Bayesian theory},
+ publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons Inc.},
+ year = {2000},
+ author = {Bernardo, J. and Smith, A.},
+ pages = {608},
+ address = {Chichester},
+ edition = {First},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{berthet+al2010a,
+ author = {Berthet, L. and Andreassian, V. and Perrin, C. and Loumagne, C.},
+ title = {{How significant are quadratic criteria? Part 1. How many years are
+ necessary to ensure the data-independence of a quadratic criterion
+ value?}},
+ journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {55},
+ pages = {1051--1062},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {Quadratic criteria are widely used to assess the performance of hydrological
+ models. However, the statistical nature of the errors makes the interpretation
+ of these criteria tricky. In this paper, root mean square error (RMSE)
+ values were computed for a hydrological model over a set of 178 varied
+ catchments on two 5-year data series: the computed RMSE values can
+ actually reflect the content of the data series with which they are
+ calculated as much as the intrinsic skills of the model. The error
+ model proposed by Yang et al. (2007) is used to assess a lower bound
+ of the RMSE confidence interval width, depending on the length of
+ the data series used for the assessment. Our analysis indicates that
+ the data series would have to be longer than several decades to ensure
+ that computed RMSEs are close to their statistical expectation. The
+ practical consequences of this result are raised and discussed. },
+ doi = {10.1080/02626667.2010.505890},
+ keywords = {model assessment, skill scores, quadratic criterion },
+ tags = {Calibration, Goodness-of-Fit}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{berthet+al2010b,
+ author = {Berthet, L. and Andreassian, V. and Perrin, C. and Loumagne, C.},
+ title = {{How significant are quadratic criteria? Part 2. On the relative
+ contribution of large flood events to the value of a quadratic criterion}},
+ journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {55},
+ pages = {1063--1073},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {Quadratic criteria (i.e. based on squared residuals) are widely used
+ to assess the performance of hydrological models. However, the largest
+ errors have a relatively strong influence on the final criterion
+ values, which may be considered a drawback for a complete assessment.
+ This paper studies the case of updated models used for real-time
+ forecasting. It is shown that the fraction of the data series actually
+ impacting the final criterion value is small on many catchments and
+ corresponds to the time steps characterised by the greatest runoff
+ variations. In fact, model updating makes the error distribution
+ more peak-shaped, giving even more relative importance to the time
+ steps with the largest errors. Therefore, assessing the performance
+ of an updated model with a quadratic criterion emphasises that these
+ criteria focus more on the most difficult time steps to model (and
+ the most interesting ones in the case of short-term flood forecasting).},
+ doi = {10.1080/02626667.2010.505891},
+ keywords = {model assessment, skill scores, quadratic criteria, flood forecasting,
+ persistence index, heteroscedasticity},
+ tags = {Calibration, Goodness-of-Fit}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{beven2009,
+ author = {Beven, K.},
+ title = {Comment on ``{Equifinality of formal (DREAM) and informal (GLUE)
+ Bayesian approaches in hydrologic modeling?" by Vrugt, J. and {ter
+ Braak}, C. and Gupta, H. and Robinson, B.}},
+ journal = {Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {In press},
+ pages = {1059--1060},
+ number = {7},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00477-008-0283-x},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.09.14}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{beven2007,
+ author = {Beven, K.},
+ title = {Towards integrated environmental models of everywhere: uncertainty,
+ data and modelling as a learning process},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {11},
+ pages = {460--467},
+ abstract = {Developing integrated environmental models of everywhere such as are
+ demanded by the requirements of, for example, implementing the Water
+ Framework Directive in Europe, is constrained by the limitations
+ of current understanding and data availability. The possibility of
+ such models raises questions about system design requirements to
+ allow modelling as a learning and data assimilation process in the
+ representation of places, which might well be treated as active objects
+ in such a system. Uncertainty in model predictions not only poses
+ issues about the value of different types of data in characterising
+ places and constraining predictive uncertainty but also about how
+ best to present the pedigree of such uncertain predictions to users
+ and decision-makers.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-11-460-2007},
+ keywords = {hydrological models, hydroecological models, characterising places,
+ prediction uncertainty, SYSTEME HYDROLOGIQUE EUROPEEN, RAINFALL-RUNOFF
+ MODEL, DISTRIBUTED MODEL, SUBSURFACE FLOW, METHODOLOGY, CALIBRATION,
+ VALIDATION, CATCHMENT, PREDICTIONS, EQUIFINALITY},
+ tags = {Philosophical}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{beven2006a,
+ author = {Beven, K.},
+ title = {A manifesto for the equifinality thesis},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {320},
+ pages = {18--36},
+ number = {1--2},
+ abstract = {This essay discusses some of the issues involved in the identification
+ and predictions of hydrological models given some calibration data.
+ The reasons for the incompleteness of traditional calibration methods
+ are discussed. The argument is made that the potential for multiple
+ acceptable models as representations of hydrological and other environmental
+ systems (the equifinality thesis) should be given more serious consideration
+ than hitherto. It proposes some techniques for an extended GLUE methodology
+ to make it more rigorous and outlines some of the research issues
+ still to be resolved.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.07.007},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{beven2006b,
+ author = {Beven, K.},
+ title = {On undermining the science?},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {20},
+ pages = {3141--3146},
+ number = {14},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.6396},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{beven2005,
+ author = {Beven, K.},
+ title = {On the concept of model structural error},
+ journal = {Water Science \& Technology},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {52},
+ pages = {167--175},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {A consideration of model structural error leads to some particularly
+ interesting tensions in the model calibration/conditioning process.
+ In applying models we can usually only assess the total error on
+ some output variable for which we have observations. This total error
+ may arise due to input and boundary condition errors, model structural
+ errors and error on the output observation itself (not only measurement
+ error but also as a result of differences in meaning between what
+ is modelled and what is measured). Statistical approaches to model
+ uncertainty generally assume that the errors can be treated as an
+ additive term on the (possibly transformed) model output. This allows
+ for compensation of all the sources of error, as if the model predictions
+ are correct and the total error can be treated as "measurement error."
+ Model structural error is not easily evaluated within this framework.
+ An alternative approach to put more emphasis on model evaluation
+ and rejection is suggested. It is recognised that model success or
+ failure within this framework will depend heavily on an assessment
+ of both input data errors (the "perfect" model will not produce acceptable
+ results if driven with poor input data) and effective observation
+ error (including a consideration of the meaning of observed variables
+ relative to those predicted by a model).},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23},
+ url = {http://www.iwaponline.com/wst/05206/wst052060167.htm}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{beven2001a,
+ author = {Beven, K.},
+ title = {How far can we go in distributed hydrological modelling?},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {5},
+ pages = {1--12},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {This paper considers distributed hydrological models in hydrology
+ as an expression of a pragmatic realism. Some of the problems of
+ distributed modelling are discussed including the problem of nonlinearity,
+ the problem of scale, the problem of equifinality, the problem of
+ uniqueness and the problem of uncertainty. A structure for the application
+ of distributed modelling is suggested based on an uncertain or fuzzy
+ landscape space to model space mapping. This is suggested as the
+ basis for an Alternative Blueprint for distributed modelling in the
+ form of an application methodology. This Alternative Blueprint is
+ scientific in that it allows for the formulation of testable hypotheses.
+ It focuses attention on the prior evaluation of models in terms of
+ physical realism and on the value of data in model rejection. Finally,
+ some unresolved questions that distributed modelling must address
+ in the future are outlined, together with a vision for distributed
+ modelling as a means of learning about places.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-5-1-2001},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{beven2001b,
+ author = {Beven, K.},
+ title = {On stochastic models and the single realization},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {15},
+ pages = {895--896},
+ number = {5},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.438},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{beven2000a,
+ author = {Beven, K.},
+ title = {On model uncertainty, risk and decision making},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2000},
+ volume = {14},
+ pages = {2605--2606},
+ number = {14},
+ doi = {10.1002/1099-1085(20001015)14:14<2605::AID-HYP400>3.0.CO;2-W},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{beven2000b,
+ author = {Beven, K.},
+ title = {Uniqueness of place and process representations in hydrological modelling},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2000},
+ volume = {4},
+ pages = {203--213},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {This paper addresses the problem of uniqueness of catchment areas
+ in relation to model representations of flow processes. The uniqueness
+ of field measurements as a limitation on model representations is
+ discussed. The treatment of uniqueness as a residual from a modelled
+ relationship may conceal information about the uniqueness of catchments,
+ while the treatment of uniqueness as a set of parameter values within
+ a particular model structure is problematic due to the equifinality
+ of model structures and parameter sets. The analysis suggests that
+ a fully reductionist approach to describe the uniqueness of individual
+ catchment areas by the aggregation of descriptions of small scale
+ behaviour will be impossible given current measurement technologies.
+ A suggested strategy for the representation of uniqueness of place
+ as a fuzzy mapping of the landscape into a model space is suggested.
+ This will lead to a quantification of the uncertainty in predictions
+ of any particular location in a way that allows a conditioning of
+ the mapping on the basis of the available data. This process can
+ incorporate a hypothesis testing approach to model evaluation but
+ the problem of multiple behavioural models may provide an ultimate
+ limitation on the realism of process representations: not on the
+ principle of realism but on the possibility of unambiguous process
+ representations.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-4-203-2000},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{beven1997,
+ author = {Beven, K.},
+ title = {{TOPMODEL}: A critique},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {1997},
+ volume = {11},
+ pages = {1069--1085},
+ abstract = {TOPMODEL (a TOPography based hydrological MODEL) is now 20 years old
+ and has been the subject of numerous applications to a wide variety
+ of catchments. This paper represents a critical review of some of
+ the issues involved in application of the TOPMODEL concepts, including
+ the basic assumptions involved; the derivation of topographic index
+ distributions from digital terrain data; additional model components;
+ meaning and calibration of the model parameters; and issues involved
+ in model validation and predictive uncertainty. The aim is to provoke
+ a thoughtful approach to hydrological modelling and the interaction
+ of modelling and field work. Some recommendations are made for future
+ modelling practice. (C) 1997 by John Wiley \& Sons, Ltd.},
+ doi = {10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(199707)11:9<1069::AID-HYP545>3.0.CO;2-O},
+ keywords = {TOPMODEL, distributed hydrological models, model calibration, GLUE,
+ uncertainty, transmissivity, DIGITAL TERRAIN MODELS, HYDROLOGICAL
+ MODELS, RUNOFF GENERATION, SWISS CATCHMENT, FLOW, SCALE, UNCERTAINTY,
+ SENSITIVITY, VARIABILITY, PARAMETERS},
+ tags = {conceptual model}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{beven1993,
+ author = {Beven, K.},
+ title = {Prophecy, reality and uncertainty in distributed hydrological modelling},
+ journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
+ year = {1993},
+ volume = {16},
+ pages = {41--51},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {Difficulties in defining truly mechanistic model structures and difficulties
+ of model calibration and validation suggest that the application
+ of distributed hydrological models is more an exercise in prophecy
+ than prediction. One response to these problems is outlined in terms
+ of a realistic assessment of uncertainty in hydrological prophecy,
+ together with a framework (GLUE) within which such ideas can be implemented.
+ It is suggested that a post-modernistic hydrology will recognise
+ the uncertainties inherent in hydrological modelling and will focus
+ attention on the value of data in conditioning hydrological prophecies.},
+ doi = {10.1016/0309-1708(93)90028-E},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{beven1989,
+ author = {Beven, K.},
+ title = {Changing ideas in hydrology - The case of physically-based models},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {1989},
+ volume = {105},
+ pages = {157--172},
+ number = {1-2},
+ abstract = {This paper argues that there are fundamental problems in the application
+ of physically-based models for practical prediction in hydrology.
+ These problems result from limitations of the model equations relative
+ to a heterogeneous reality; the lack of a theory of subgrid scale
+ integration; practical constraints on solution methodologies; and
+ problems of dimensionality in parameter calibration. It is suggested
+ that most current applications of physically-based models use them
+ as lumped conceptual models at the grid scale. Recent papers on physically-based
+ models have misunderstood and misrepresented these limitations. There
+ are practical hydrological problems requiring physically-based predictions,
+ and there will continue to be a need for physically-based models
+ but ideas about their capabilities must change so that future applications
+ attempt to obtain realistic estimates of the uncertainty associated
+ with their predictions, particularly in the case of evaluating future
+ scenarios of the effects of management strategies.},
+ doi = {10.1016/0022-1694(89)90101-7},
+ tags = {conceptual model}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{bevenbinley1992,
+ author = {Beven, K. and Binley, A.},
+ title = {The future of distributed models: {M}odel calibration and uncertainty
+ prediction},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {1992},
+ volume = {6},
+ pages = {279--283},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {This paper describes a methodology for calibration and uncertainty
+ estimation of distributed models based on generalized likelihood
+ measures. the GLUE procedure works with multiple sets of parameter
+ values and allows that, within the limitations of a given model structure
+ and errors in boundary conditions and field observations, different
+ sets of values May, be equally likely as simulators of a catchment.
+ Procedures for incorporating different types of observations into
+ the calibration; Bayesian updating of likelihood values and evaluating
+ the value of additional observations to the calibration process are
+ described. the procedure is computationally intensive but has been
+ implemented on a local parallel processing computer. the methodology
+ is illustrated by an application of the Institute of Hydrology Distributed
+ Model to data from the Gwy experimental catchment at Plynlimon, mid-Wales.},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.3360060305},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{bevenfreer2001,
+ author = {Beven, K. and Freer, J.},
+ title = {Equifinality, data assimilation, and uncertainty estimation in mechanistic
+ modelling of complex environmental systems using the {GLUE} methodology},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {249},
+ pages = {11--29},
+ number = {1--4},
+ abstract = {It may be endemic to mechanistic modelling of complex environmental
+ systems that there are many different model structures and many different
+ parameter sets within a chosen model structure that may be behavioural
+ or acceptable in reproducing the observed behaviour of that system.
+ This has been called the equifinality concept. The generalised likelihood
+ uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology for model identification
+ allowing for equifinality is described. Prediction within this methodology
+ is a process of ensemble forecasting using a sample of parameter
+ sets from the behavioural model space, with each sample weighted
+ according to its likelihood measure to estimate prediction quantiles.
+ This allows that different models may contribute to the ensemble
+ prediction interval at different time steps and that the distributional
+ form of the predictions may change over time. Any effects of model
+ nonlinearity, covariation of parameter values and errors in model
+ structure, input data or observed variables, with which the simulations
+ are compared, are handled implicitly within this procedure. GLUE
+ involves a number of choices that must be made explicit and can be
+ therefore subjected to scrutiny and discussion. These include ways
+ of combining information from different types of model evaluation
+ or from different periods in a data assimilation context. An example
+ application to rainfall-runoff modelling is used to illustrate the
+ methodology, including the updating of likelihood measures. (C) 2001
+ Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00421-8},
+ keywords = {GLUE, TOPMODEL, maimai catchment, rainfall-runoff modelling, parameter
+ conditioning, prediction uncertainty, GLUE, PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY,
+ BAYESIAN-ESTIMATION, DISTRIBUTED MODELS, SVAT MODEL, CALIBRATION,
+ PREDICTION, CATCHMENTS, HYDROLOGY, TOPMODEL, SCALE},
+ tags = {Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{beven2008,
+ author = {Beven, K. and Smith, P. and Freer, J.},
+ title = {So just why would a modeller choose to be incoherent?},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {354},
+ pages = {15--32},
+ number = {1--4},
+ abstract = {This article provides an extended response to the criticisms of the
+ GLUE methodology by Mantovan and Todini [Mantovan, P., Todini, E.,
+ 2006. Hydrological forecasting uncertainty assessment: incoherence
+ of the GLUE methodology. J. Hydrol. 330, 368–381]. It is shown that
+ the formal Bayesian identification of models is a special case of
+ GLUE that can be used where the modeller is prepared to make very
+ strong assumptions about the nature of the modelling errors. Under
+ such assumptions, GLUE can be coherent in the sense of Manotvan and
+ Todini. In real applications, however, with multiple sources of uncertainty
+ including model structural error, their strong definition of coherence
+ is shown to be inapplicable to the extent that the choice of a formal
+ likelihood function based on a simple error structure may be an incoherent
+ choice. It is demonstrated by some relatively minor modifications
+ of their hypothetical example that misspecification of the error
+ model and the non-stationarities associated with the presence of
+ input error and model structural error in the Bayes approach will
+ then produce well-defined but incorrect parameter distributions.
+ This empirical result is quite independent of GLUE, but the flexibility
+ of the GLUE approach may then prove to be an advantage in providing
+ more coherent and robust choices of model evaluation in these cases
+ and, by analogy, in other non-ideal cases for real applications.
+ At the current time it is difficult to make a reasoned choice between
+ methods of uncertainty estimation for real applications because of
+ a lack of understanding of the real information content of data in
+ conditioning models.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.02.007},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{bevensmithfreer2007,
+ author = {Beven, K. and Smith, P. and Freer, J.},
+ title = {Comment on ``{H}ydrological forecasting uncertainty assessment: Incoherence
+ of the {GLUE} methodology'' by {P.} {M}antovan and {E.} {T}odini},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {338},
+ pages = {315--318},
+ number = {3--4},
+ abstract = {This comment is a response to the criticisms of the GLUE methodology
+ by [Mantovan, P., Todini, E., 2006. Hydrological forecasting uncertainty
+ assessment: Incoherence of the GLUE methodology, J. Hydrology, 2006].
+ In this comment it is shown that the formal Bayesian identification
+ of models is a special case of GLUE that can be used where the modeller
+ is prepared to make very strong assumptions about the nature of the
+ modelling errors. For the hypothetical study of Mantovan and Todini,
+ exact assumptions were assumed known for the formal Bayesian identification,
+ but were then ignored in the application of GLUE to the same data.
+ We show that a more reasonable application of GLUE to this problem
+ using similar prior knowledge shows that gives equally coherent results
+ to the formal Bayes identification. In real applications, subject
+ to input and model structural error it is suggested that the coherency
+ condition of MT06 cannot hold at the single observation level and
+ that the choice of a formal Bayesian likelihood function may then
+ be incoherent. In these (more interesting) cases, GLUE can be coherent
+ in the application of likelihood measures based on blocks of data,
+ but different choices of measures and blocks effectively represent
+ different beliefs about the information content of data in real applications
+ with input and model structural errors.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.02.023},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{beven+al2011,
+ author = {Beven, K. and Smith, P. and Wood, A.},
+ title = {On the colour and spin of epistemic error (and what we might do about
+ it)},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {15},
+ pages = {3123--3133},
+ number = {10},
+ abstract = {Disinformation as a result of epistemic error is an issue in hydrological
+ modelling. In particular the way in which the colour in model residuals
+ resulting from epistemic errors should be expected to be non-stationary
+ means that it is difficult to justify the spin that the structure
+ of residuals can be properly represented by statistical likelihood
+ functions. To do so would be to greatly overestimate the information
+ content in a set of calibration data and increase the possibility
+ of both Type I and Type II errors. Some principles of trying to identify
+ periods of disinformative data prior to evaluation of a model structure
+ of interest, are discussed. An example demonstrates the effect on
+ the estimated parameter values of a hydrological model.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-15-3123-2011},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.10.11}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{bevenyoung2003,
+ author = {Beven, K. and Young, P.},
+ title = {Comment on "{B}ayesian recursive parameter estimation for hydrologic
+ models" by {M}. {T}hiemann, {M}. {T}rosset, {H}. {G}upta, and {S}.
+ {S}orooshian},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {39},
+ pages = {1116},
+ doi = {10.1029/2001WR001183},
+ tags = {Calibration, Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@INPROCEEDINGS{binkleyhagiwara2005,
+ author = {Binkley, K. and Hagiwara, M.},
+ title = {Particle swarm optimization with area of influence: increasing the
+ effectiveness of the swarm},
+ booktitle = {Swarm Intelligence Symposium, 2005. SIS 2005. Proceedings 2005 IEEE},
+ year = {2005},
+ pages = {45--52},
+ month = {june},
+ abstract = { In this paper we present a new definition of neighborhood for particle
+ swarm optimization (PSO) methods called area of influence. Area of
+ influence (AOI) derives from the observation that in nature the effective
+ exchange of information between individuals of a society deteriorates
+ as their physical distance increases. In PSO with AOI, the loss of
+ information exchange, ability with distance is simulated by making
+ the exchange of information a function of the physical distance between
+ particles in hyperspace. In this paper, we compare the AOI method
+ to the standard PSO neighborhood methods, global best, local best,
+ and von Neumann. We also introduce a local search method using reinitialization
+ of velocity components based on the current search range. We show
+ that AOI along with local search and a time-varying constriction
+ coefficient provides strong benefits to several PSO algorithms. Results
+ are presented using the standard benchmark functions from the PSO
+ literature.},
+ doi = {10.1109/SIS.2005.1501601},
+ issn = { },
+ keywords = { AOI method, PSO neighborhood method, area of influence, information
+ exchange, local search method, particle swarm optimization, time-varying
+ constriction coefficient, velocity component reinitialization, evolutionary
+ computation, particle swarm optimisation, search problems},
+ tags = {Calibration, PSO}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{binleybeven2003,
+ author = {Binley, A. and Beven, K.},
+ title = {Vadose zone flow model uncertainty as conditioned on geophysical
+ data},
+ journal = {Ground Water},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {41},
+ pages = {119--127},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {An approach to estimating the uncertainty in model descriptions based
+ on a landscape space to model space mapping concept is described.
+ The approach is illustrated by an application making use of plot
+ scale geophysical estimates of changes in water content profiles
+ to condition a model of recharge to the Sherwood Sandstone Aquifer
+ in the United Kingdom. It is demonstrated that the mapping is highly
+ uncertain and that many different parameter sets give acceptable
+ simulations of the observations. Multiple profile measurements over
+ time offer only limited additional constraints on the mapping. The
+ resulting mapping weights may be used to evaluate uncertainty in
+ the predictions of vadose zone flow dynamics for the site.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1745-6584.2003.tb02576.x},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{blasone2008a,
+ author = {Blasone, {R.-S.} and Madsen, H. and Rosbjerg, D.},
+ title = {Uncertainty assessment of integrated distributed hydrological models
+ using {GLUE} with {M}arkov chain {M}onte {C}arlo sampling},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {353},
+ pages = {18--32},
+ number = {1--2},
+ abstract = {In recent years, there has been an increase in the application of
+ distributed, physically-based and integrated hydrological models.
+ Many questions regarding how to properly calibrate and validate distributed
+ models and assess the uncertainty of the estimated parameters and
+ the spatially-distributed responses are, however, still quite unexplored.
+ Especially for complex models, rigorous parameterization, reduction
+ of the parameter space and use of efficient and effective algorithms
+ are essential to facilitate the calibration process and make it more
+ robust. Moreover, for these models multi-site validation must complement
+ the usual time validation. In this study, we develop, through an
+ application, a comprehensive framework for multi-criteria calibration
+ and uncertainty assessment of distributed physically-based, integrated
+ hydrological models. A revised version of the generalized likelihood
+ uncertainty estimation (GLUE) procedure based on Markov chain Monte
+ Carlo sampling is applied in order to improve the performance of
+ the methodology in estimating parameters and posterior output distributions.
+ The description of the spatial variations of the hydrological processes
+ is accounted for by defining a measure of model performance that
+ includes multiple criteria and spatially-distributed information.
+ An initial sensitivity analysis is conducted on the model to avoid
+ overparameterisation and to increase the robustness of the approach.
+ It is demonstrated that the employed methodology increases the identifiability
+ of the parameters and results in satisfactory multi-variable simulations
+ and uncertainty estimates. However, the parameter uncertainty alone
+ cannot explain the total uncertainty at all the sites, due to limitations
+ in the distributed data included in the model calibration. The study
+ also indicates that properly distributed information of discharge
+ is particularly crucial in model calibration and validation.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.12.026},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.07.11}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{blasone2008b,
+ author = {Blasone, {R.-S.} and Vrugt, J. and Madsen, H. and Rosbjerg, D. and
+ Robinson, B. and Zyvoloski, G.},
+ title = {Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation ({GLUE}) using adaptive
+ {M}arkov {C}hain {M}onte {C}arlo sampling},
+ journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {31},
+ pages = {630--648},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {In the last few decades hydrologists have made tremendous progress
+ in using dynamic simulation models for the analysis and understanding
+ of hydrologic systems. However, predictions with these models are
+ often deterministic and as such they focus on the most probable forecast,
+ without an explicit estimate of the associated uncertainty. This
+ uncertainty arises from incomplete process representation, uncertainty
+ in initial conditions, input, output and parameter error. The generalized
+ likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework was one of the
+ first attempts to represent prediction uncertainty within the context
+ of Monte Carlo (MC) analysis coupled with Bayesian estimation and
+ propagation of uncertainty. Because of its flexibility, ease of implementation
+ and its suitability for parallel implementation on distributed computer
+ systems, the GLUE method has been used in a wide variety of applications.
+ However, the MC based sampling strategy of the prior parameter space
+ typically utilized in GLUE is not particularly efficient in finding
+ behavioral simulations. This becomes especially problematic for high-dimensional
+ parameter estimation problems, and in the case of complex simulation
+ models that require significant computational time to run and produce
+ the desired output. In this paper we improve the computational efficiency
+ of GLUE by sampling the prior parameter space using an adaptive Markov
+ Chain Monte Carlo scheme (the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis
+ (SCEM-UA) algorithm). Moreover, we propose an alternative strategy
+ to determine the value of the cutoff threshold based on the appropriate
+ coverage of the resulting uncertainty bounds. We demonstrate the
+ superiority of this revised GLUE method with three different conceptual
+ watershed models of increasing complexity, using both synthetic and
+ real-world streamflow data from two catchments with different hydrologic
+ regimes.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.advwatres.2007.12.003},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{blenkinsopfowler2005,
+ author = {Blenkinsop, S. and Fowler, H.},
+ title = {Assessment of climatology in climate model},
+ institution = {Newcastle University, School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences},
+ year = {2005},
+ type = {Aquaterra Deliverable {H}1.4},
+ address = {Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU, UK.},
+ tags = {Downscaling}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{blenkinsopfowler2007,
+ author = {Blenkinsop, S. and Fowler, H. J.},
+ title = {Changes in European drought characteristics projected by the PRUDENCE
+ regional climate models},
+ journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {27},
+ pages = {1595--1610},
+ number = {12},
+ abstract = {One of the key features of global climate change will be perturbations
+ to the hydrological regime across Europe. To date, assessments of
+ the impacts of future change have generally used results from only
+ one climate model, thus underestimating the range of possible change
+ projected by different climate models. Here, the skill of six regional
+ climate models (RCMs) in reproducing the mean precipitation for the
+ 1961–1990 period for six catchments across Europe is compared and
+ their projections of changes in future precipitation are assessed.
+ A simple drought index based on monthly precipitation anomalies is
+ also described and used to assess the models. Considerable variation
+ in model skill in reproducing monthly mean precipitation and drought
+ statistics is observed, with model errors in the reproduction of
+ drought events independent of those for the mean, suggesting that
+ the models have difficulties in reproducing the observed persistence
+ of low monthly rainfall totals. In broad terms, the models indicate
+ decreases in summer and increases in winter precipitation across
+ Europe. On the regional scales required for impacts analysis, considerable
+ model uncertainty is demonstrated for future projections, particularly
+ for drought frequency. Although increases in the frequency of long-duration
+ droughts are identified for catchments in southern Europe, the magnitude
+ of this change is not certain. In contrast, for a catchment in northern
+ England, such events are likely to become less frequent. For shorter-duration
+ droughts, future changes encompass the direction of change. For stakeholders
+ in each of the regions, these changes and uncertainties pose different
+ challenges for the management of water resources. For the scientific
+ community, the challenge raised is how to incorporate this uncertainty
+ in climate change projections in a way that allows those groups to
+ make informed decisions based on model projections. It is suggested
+ that probabilistic scenarios for specific hydrological impacts offer
+ considerable potential to achieve this. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological
+ Society},
+ doi = {10.1002/joc.1538},
+ issn = {1097-0088},
+ keywords = {drought, climate change, regional climate models, probabilistic scenarios,
+ uncertainty, Europe},
+ publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons, Ltd.}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{block2009,
+ author = {Block, P. and Filho, F. and Sun, L. and Kwon, {H.-H.}},
+ title = {A streamflow forecasting framework using multiple climate and hydrological
+ models},
+ journal = {Journal of the American Water Resources Association},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {45},
+ pages = {828--843},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {Water resources planning and management efficacy is subject to capturing
+ inherent uncertainties stemming from climatic and hydrological inputs
+ and models. Streamflow forecasts, critical in reservoir operation
+ and water allocation decision making, fundamentally contain uncertainties
+ arising from assumed initial conditions, model structure, and modeled
+ processes. Accounting for these propagating uncertainties remains
+ a formidable challenge. Recent enhancements in climate forecasting
+ skill and hydrological modeling serve as an impetus for further pursuing
+ models and model combinations capable of delivering improved streamflow
+ forecasts. However, little consideration has been given to methodologies
+ that include coupling both multiple climate and multiple hydrological
+ models, increasing the pool of streamflow forecast ensemble members
+ and accounting for cumulative sources of uncertainty. The framework
+ presented here proposes integration and offline coupling of global
+ climate models (GCMs), multiple regional climate models, and numerous
+ water balance models to improve streamflow forecasting through generation
+ of ensemble forecasts. For demonstration purposes, the framework
+ is imposed on the Jaguaribe basin in northeastern Brazil for a hindcast
+ of 1974-1996 monthly streamflow. The ECHAM 4.5 and the NCEP/MRF9
+ GCMs and regional models, including dynamical and statistical models,
+ are integrated with the ABCD and Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure
+ water balance models. Precipitation hindcasts from the GCMs are downscaled
+ via the regional models and fed into the water balance models, producing
+ streamflow hindcasts. Multi-model ensemble combination techniques
+ include pooling, linear regression weighting, and a kernel density
+ estimator to evaluate streamflow hindcasts; the latter technique
+ exhibits superior skill compared with any single coupled model ensemble
+ hindcast.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00327.x},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.25}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{boe2009a,
+ author = {Bo\'e, J. and Terray, L. and Cassou, C. and Najac, J.},
+ title = {Uncertainties in {E}uropean summer precipitation changes: role of
+ large scale circulation},
+ journal = {Climate Dynamics},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {33},
+ pages = {265--276},
+ number = {2--3},
+ abstract = {Climate models suggest that anthropogenic emissions are likely to
+ induce an important drying during summer over most of Europe in the
+ late 21st century. However, the amplitude of the associated decrease
+ in precipitation strongly varies among the different climate models.
+ In order to reduce this spread, it is first necessary to identify
+ its causes and the associated physical mechanisms. Consequently,
+ the focus of this paper is to better estimate the role of large scale
+ circulation (LSC) in precipitation changes over Europe using a multi-model
+ framework and then to characterize the LSC changes using the weather
+ regime paradigm. We show that LSC changes directly lead to a decrease
+ of precipitation over northwestern Europe. This circulation-driven
+ decrease in rainfall is mainly linked to an increase (decrease) of
+ the occurrence of positive (negative) phase of the North Atlantic
+ Oscillation regime. LSC is also responsible for a significant part
+ of the models spread in precipitation changes over these regions.
+ Over southern Europe, the role of LSC changes on multi-model mean
+ precipitation changes is generally weak. We also show that the precipitation
+ anomalies directly induced by LSC modifications seem to be further
+ amplified through local feedbacks.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00382-008-0474-7},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.21}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{boe2007,
+ author = {Bo\'e, J. and Terray, L. and Habets, F. and Martin, E.},
+ title = {Statistical and dynamical downscaling of the {S}eine basin climate
+ for hydro-meteorological studies},
+ journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {27},
+ pages = {1643--1655},
+ number = {12},
+ abstract = {Two downscaling methods designed for the study of the hydrological
+ impact of climate change on the Seine basin in France are tested
+ for present climate. First, a multivariate statistical downscaling
+ (SD) methodology based on weather typing and conditional resampling
+ is described. Then, a bias correction technique for dynamical downscaling
+ based on quantile–quantile mapping is introduced. To evaluate the
+ end-to-end SD methodology, the atmospheric forcing derived from the
+ large-scale circulation (LSC) of the ERA40 reanalysis by SD is used
+ to force a hydrological model. Simulated discharges reproduce historical
+ values reasonably well. Next, the dynamical and statistical approaches
+ are compared using the M´et´eo–France ARPEGE general circulation
+ model in a variable resolution configuration (resolution around 60
+ km over France). The ARPEGE simulation is downscaled using the two
+ methodologies, and hydrological simulations are performed. Regarding
+ downscaled temperature and precipitation, the statistical approach
+ is more efficient in reproducing the temporal and spatial autocorrelation
+ properties. The simulated river discharges from the two approaches
+ are nevertheless very similar: the two methods reproduce well the
+ seasonal cycle and the daily distribution of streamflows. Finally,
+ the results of the study are discussed from a practical impact study
+ perspective.},
+ doi = {10.1002/joc.1602},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.25}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{boe2009b,
+ author = {Bo\'e, J. and Terray, L. and Martin, E. and Habets, F.},
+ title = {Projected changes in components of the hydrological cycle in {F}rench
+ river basins during the 21st century},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {45},
+ pages = {1--15},
+ number = {W08426},
+ abstract = {The main objective of this paper is to study the impacts of climate
+ change on the hydrological cycle of the main French river basins,
+ including the different uncertainties at stake. In particular, the
+ relative importance of modeling uncertainty versus that of downscaling
+ uncertainty is investigated. An ensemble of climate scenarios are
+ statistically downscaled in order to force a hydrometeorological
+ model over France. Then, the main changes in different variables
+ of the hydrological cycle are studied. Despite large uncertainties
+ linked to climate models, some robust signals already appear in the
+ middle of the 21st century. In particular, a decrease in mean discharges
+ in summer and fall, a decrease in soil moisture, and a decrease in
+ snow cover, especially pronounced at the low and intermediate altitudes,
+ are simulated. The low flows become more frequent but generally weak,
+ and uncertain changes in the intensity of high flows are simulated.
+ To evaluate downscaling uncertainties and assess the robustness of
+ the results obtained with the statistical downscaling method, two
+ other downscaling approaches are used. The first one is a dynamical
+ downscaling methodology based on a variable resolution atmospheric
+ model, with a quantile-quantile bias correction of the model variables.
+ The second approach is based on the so-called anomaly method, that
+ simply consists of perturbing present climate observations by the
+ climatological change simulated by global climate models. After hydrological
+ modeling, some discrepancies exist among the results from the different
+ downscaling methods. However they remain limited and to a large extent
+ smaller than climate model uncertainties, which raises important
+ methodological considerations.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2008WR007437},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.08.03}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{boberg2009a,
+ author = {Boberg, F. and Berg, P. and Thejil, P. and Gutowski, J. and Christensen,
+ J.},
+ title = {Improved confidence in climate change projections of precipitation
+ further evaluated using daily statistics from {ENSEMBLES} models},
+ journal = {Climate Dynamics},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {35},
+ pages = {1509--1520},
+ number = {7--8},
+ abstract = {Probability density functions for daily precipitation data are used
+ as a validation tool comparing station measurements to seven transient
+ regional climate model runs, with a horizontal resolution of 25 km
+ and driven by the SRES A1B scenario forcing, within the ENSEMBLES
+ project. The validation is performed for the control period 1961–1990
+ for eight predefined European subregions, and a ninth region enclosing
+ all eight subregions, with different climate characteristics. Models
+ that best match the observations are then used for making climate
+ change projections of precipitation distributions during the twenty-first
+ century for each subregion separately. We find, compared to the control
+ period, a distinct decrease in the contribution to the total precipitation
+ for days with moderate precipitation and a distinct increase for
+ days with more intense precipitation. This change in contribution
+ to the total precipitation is found to amplify with time during all
+ of the twenty-first century with an average rate of 1.1% K?1. Furthermore,
+ the crossover point separating the decreasing from the increasing
+ contributions does not show any significant change with time for
+ any specific subregion. These results are a confirmation and a specification
+ of the results from a previous study using the same station measurements
+ but with a regional climate model ensemble within the PRUDENCE project.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00382-009-0683-8},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.03.08}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{boberg2009b,
+ author = {Boberg, F. and Berg, P. and Thejll, P.},
+ title = {Comparing regional climate models with gridded observations within
+ the {ENSEMBLES} project using probability density functions},
+ institution = {Danish Meteorological Institute},
+ year = {2009},
+ number = {09-04},
+ abstract = {Future precipitation over Europe is being modelled on the basis of
+ present knowledge of observed precipitation and expectations for
+ the future based on regional climate models. The observational data
+ are vital for determining which of the models best represent current
+ precipitation, but the precipitation data are available in two versions
+ - as raw station data and as a specially gridded set. We investigate
+ here whether these two representations are similar or not. A newly
+ developed gridded data set, constructed using interpolations of station
+ observations, is validated using regional climate model experiments
+ within the ENSEMBLES project. The validation is made for daily precipitation
+ and daily mean temperature during the period 1961-1990 using probability
+ density functions for nine different European subregions with different
+ climate characteristics. It is found that the gridded observations
+ deviate from the models for precipitation, for all seasons and for
+ most subregions, with an overestimation of days with moderate precipitation
+ and an underestimation of days with more intense precipitation. For
+ daily mean temperature, the gridded observations often underestimate
+ the number of hot days, which is found for most subregions and most
+ seasons. The cold day part of the model distribution is however relatively
+ well matched by the gridded observations. We also include a publicly
+ available station based observational data set in the study. This
+ data set constitutes a relatively large fraction of the observations
+ used to produce the gridded observational data set and it is, despite
+ of its inhomogeneous spatial distribution, found to match the daily
+ model precipitation distribution relatively well for most subregions
+ and most seasons. However, compared with the gridded observations,
+ the daily mean temperature distribution for the station observations
+ is often poorly matching the model distributions, especially for
+ colder days during summer.},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.21},
+ url = {http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/dkc09-04.pdf}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{boldetti+al2010,
+ author = {Boldetti, G. and Riffard, M. and Andreassian, V. and Oudin, L.},
+ title = {Data-set cleansing practices and hydrological regionalization: is
+ there any valuable information among outliers?},
+ journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {55},
+ pages = {941--951},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {In hydrological regionalization studies, where one attempts to transfer
+ information from gauged (donor) stations to ungauged (target) ones,
+ the problem of data quality and reliability is often raised. Should
+ all the available data be used? Or should some donor stations be
+ considered unreliable for some reason and therefore discarded? In
+ this article, we address these questions by proposing a new method
+ to detect potentially undesirable stations: this method to identify
+ outliers is based on the detection of catchments which do not fit
+ in their neighbourhood. We apply this approach to a case of simple
+ regionalization involving reference flows and compare it with the
+ traditional outlier detection method. As expected, different outlier
+ definitions lead to considerably different results, and the proposed
+ method appears to perform noticeably better than the traditional
+ one. },
+ doi = {10.1080/02626667.2010.505171},
+ keywords = {regionalization, ungauged catchments, donor catchments, outliers },
+ tags = {Calibration, Regionalization, Philosophical, Outliers}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{booij2005,
+ author = {Booij, M.},
+ title = {Impact of climate change on river flooding assessed with different
+ spatial model resolutions},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {303},
+ pages = {176--198},
+ number = {1--4},
+ abstract = {The impact of climate change on flooding in the river Meuse is assessed
+ on a daily basis using spatially and temporally changed climate patterns
+ and a hydrological model with three different spatial resolutions.
+ This is achieved by selecting a hydrological modelling framework
+ and implementing appropriate model components, derived in an earlier
+ study, into the selected framework (HBV). Additionally, two other
+ spatial resolutions for the hydrological model are used to evaluate
+ the sensitivity of the model results to spatial model resolution
+ and to allow for a test of the model appropriateness procedure. Generations
+ of a stochastic precipitation model under current and changed climate
+ conditions have been used to assess the climate change impacts. The
+ average and extreme discharge behaviour at the basin outlet is well
+ reproduced by the three versions of the hydrological model in the
+ calibration and validation, the results become somewhat better with
+ increasing model resolution. The model results with synthetic precipitation
+ under current climate conditions show a small overestimation of average
+ discharge behaviour and a considerable underestimation of extreme
+ discharge behaviour. The underestimation of extreme discharges is
+ caused by the small scale character of the observed precipitation
+ input at the sub-basin scale. The general trend with climate change
+ is a small decrease of the average discharge and a small increase
+ of discharge variability and extreme discharges. The variability
+ in extreme discharges for climate change conditions increases with
+ respect to the simulations for current climate conditions. This variability
+ results both from the stochasticity of the precipitation process
+ and the differences between the climate models. The total uncertainty
+ in river flooding with climate change (over 40%) is much larger
+ than the change with respect to current climate conditions (less
+ than 10%). However, climate changes are systematic changes rather
+ than random changes and thus the large uncertainty range will be
+ shifted to another level corresponding to the changed average situation.
+ },
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.07.013},
+ tags = {Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{booijkrol2010,
+ author = {Booij, M. and Krol, M.},
+ title = {Balance between calibration objectives in a conceptual hydrological
+ model},
+ journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {55},
+ pages = {1017--1032},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {Three different measures to determine the optimum balance between
+ calibration objectives are compared: the combined rank method, parameter
+ identifiability and model validation. Four objectives (water balance,
+ hydrograph shape, high flows, low flows) are included in each measure.
+ The contributions of these objectives to the specific measure are
+ varied to find the optimum balance between the objectives for each
+ measure. The methods are applied to nine middle-sized catchments,
+ using a typical conceptual hydrological model. The results indicate
+ that differences in the optimum balance between the combined rank
+ method and parameter identifiability on the one hand, and model validation
+ on the other, are considerable. The theoretical optimum balance would
+ be a situation without trade-off between single objectives. For some
+ catchments and measures, this situation is closely approximated.
+ On average, the performance of combined rank method is somewhat better
+ than that of parameter identifiability (respectively 3.6\% and 5.0\%
+ below the theoretical optimum), where the performance of model validation
+ is considerably lower (22.4\% below the theoretical optimum). These
+ results are supported by additional validation tests which gave robust
+ results for the combined rank measure and the parameter identifiability
+ measure, and less robust results for the model validation measure.
+ },
+ doi = {10.1080/02626667.2010.505892},
+ keywords = {calibration objectives, combined rank measure, parameter identifiability,
+ model validation, HBV model, Meuse basin },
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{borahbera2004,
+ author = {Borah, D. and Bera, M.},
+ title = {Watershed-scale hydrologic and nonpoint-source pollution models:
+ Review of applications},
+ journal = {Transactions of the ASABE},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {47},
+ pages = {789--803},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {Three watershed-scale hydrologic and nonpoint-source pollution models,
+ all having the three major components (hydrology, sediment, and chemical),
+ were selected based on a review of eleven models (AGNPS, AnnAGNPS,
+ ANSWERS, ANSWERS-Continuous, CASC2D, DWSM, HSPF, KINEROS, MIKE SHE,
+ PRMS, and SWAT) presented in a companion artide. Those selected were
+ SWAT, a promising model for long-term continuous simulations in predominantly
+ agricultural watersheds; HSPF, a promising model for long-term continuous
+ simulations in mixed agricultural and urban watersheds; and DWSM,
+ a promising storm event (rainfall) simulation model for agricultural
+ and suburban watersheds. In this article, applications of these three
+ models, as reported and found in the literature, are reviewed und
+ discussed. Seventeen SWAT, twelve HSPF, and eighteen DWSM applications
+ are compiled. SWAT and HSPF require a significant amount of data
+ and empirical parameters for development and calibration. DWSM has
+ efficient physically (process) based simulation routines and therefore
+ has a small number of calibration parameters. SWAT and HSPF were
+ found suitable for predicting yearly flow volumes, sediment. and
+ nutrient loads. Monthly predictions were generally good, except for
+ months having extreme storm events and hydrologic conditions. Daily
+ simulations of extreme flow events were poor: DWSM reasonably predicted
+ distributed flow hydrographs, and concentration or discharge graphs
+ of sediment, nutrient, and pestides at small time intervals resulting
+ from rainfall events. Combined use of these complementary models
+ and perhaps other trtodels having different strengths is warranted
+ to adequately address water quantity and quality problems and their
+ solutions},
+ keywords = {SWAT, REview of applications},
+ tags = {SWAT},
+ url = {http://asae.frymulti.com/abstract.asp?aid=16110&t=1}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{bormann+al2009,
+ author = {Bormann, H. and Breuer, L. and Gr\"aff, T. and Huisman, J. and Croke,
+ B.},
+ title = {Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble
+ modelling ({LUCHEM}) {IV}: {M}odel sensitivity to data aggregation
+ and spatial (re-)distribution},
+ journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {32},
+ pages = {171--192},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {This paper analyses the effect of spatial resolution and distribution
+ of model input data on the results of regional-scale land use scenarios
+ using three different hydrological catchment models. A 25 m resolution
+ data set of a mesoscale catchment and three land use scenarios are
+ used. Data are systematically aggregated to resolutions up to 2 km.
+ Land use scenarios are spatially redistributed, both randomly and
+ topography based. Using these data, water fluxes are calculated on
+ a daily time step for a 16 year time period without further calibration.
+ Simulation results are used to identify grid size, distribution and
+ model dependent scenario effects. In the case of data aggregation,
+ all applied models react sensitively to grid size. WASIM and TOPLATS
+ simulate constant water balances for grid sizes from 50 m to 300-500
+ m, SWAT is more sensitive to input data aggregation, simulating constant
+ water balances between 50 m and 200 m grid size. The calculation
+ of scenario effects is less robust to data aggregation. The maximum
+ acceptable grid size reduces to 200-300 m for TOPLATS and WASIM.
+ In case of spatial distribution, SWAT and TOPLATS are slightly sensitive
+ to a redistribution of land use (below 1.5% for water balance terms),
+ whereas WASIM shows almost no reaction. Because the aggregation effects
+ were stronger than the redistribution effects, it is concluded that
+ spatial discretisation is more important than spatial distribution.
+ As the aggregation effect was mainly associated with a change in
+ land use fraction, it is concluded that accuracy of data sets is
+ much more important than a high spatial resolution.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.advwatres.2008.01.002},
+ keywords = {Hydrological catchment models, Model comparison, Land use change,
+ Spatial distribution, Input data aggregation},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, Climate Change}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{bosch+al2004,
+ author = {Bosch, D. and Sheridan, J. and Batten, H. and Arnold, J.},
+ title = {Evaluation of the {SWAT} model on a coastal plain agricultural watershed},
+ journal = {Transactions of the ASABE},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {47},
+ pages = {1493--1506},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {The Better Assessment Science Integrating point and Nonpoint Sources
+ (BASINS) system was developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection
+ Agency to facilitate developing total maximum daily loads (TMDLs).
+ The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is one of the watershed-scale
+ simulation models within BASINS. Because of the critical nature of
+ the TMDL process, it is imperative that BASINS and SWAT be adequately
+ validated for regions on which they are being applied. BASINS and
+ SWAT were tested using six years of hydrologic data from a 22 km(2)
+ subwatershed of the Little River in Georgia. Comparisons were made
+ between water balance results obtained using high and low spatial
+ resolution data as well as those obtained using default initial parameters
+ versus those modified for existing groundwater conditions. In general,
+ all scenarios simulated general trends in the observed flow data.
+ However, for the years with lower precipitation, the total water
+ yields simulated with the low spatial resolution data and the default
+ initial conditions were overpredicted by up to 27\% of the annual
+ precipitation input. Total water yields simulated using the high
+ spatial resolution input data were within 20\% of the observed yields
+ for each year of the assessment. Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiencies
+ (E) for monthly total water yields were 0.80 using the high spatial
+ resolution data with the modified initial conditions and 0.64 using
+ the low spatial resolution data with the default initial conditions.
+ While the model simulated general streamflow trends, discrepancies
+ were observed between observed and simulated hydrograph peaks, time
+ to peak, and hydrograph durations. A one-day time lag between the
+ simulated and observed time to peak was the primary cause of large
+ errors in daily flow simulations. Model modification and more extensive
+ calibration may be necessary to increase the accuracy of the daily
+ flow estimates for TMDL development.},
+ keywords = {hydrologic modeling, streamflow, watersheds, STREAMFLOW, SIMULATION,
+ SEDIMENT, WETLANDS, QUALITY, LOADS},
+ tags = {SWAT, GIS related},
+ url = {http://asae.frymulti.com/abstract.asp?aid=17629&t=1}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{bouwer+al2010,
+ author = {Laurens M. Bouwer and Philip Bubeck and Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts},
+ title = {Changes in future flood risk due to climate and development in a
+ Dutch polder area},
+ journal = {Global Environmental Change},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {20},
+ pages = {463--471},
+ number = {3},
+ note = {<ce:title>Governance, Complexity and Resilience</ce:title>},
+ abstract = {Damages from weather related disasters are projected to increase,
+ due to a combination of increasing exposure of people and assets,
+ and expected changes in the global climate. Only few studies have
+ assessed in detail the potential range of losses in the future and
+ the factors contributing to the projected increase. Here we estimate
+ future potential damage from river flooding, and analyse the relative
+ role of land-use, asset value increase and climate change on these
+ losses, for a case study area in The Netherlands. Projections of
+ future socioeconomic change (land-use change and increase in the
+ value of assets) are used in combination with flood scenarios, projections
+ of flooding probabilities, and a simple damage model. It is found
+ that due to socioeconomic change, annual expected losses may increase
+ by between 35 and 172% by the year 2040, compared to the baseline
+ situation in the year 2000. If no additional measures are taken to
+ reduce flood probabilities or consequences, climate change may lead
+ to an increase in expected losses of between 46 and 201%. A combination
+ of climate and socioeconomic change may increase expected losses
+ by between 96 and 719%. Asset value increase has a large role, as
+ it may lead to a doubling of losses. The use of single loss estimates
+ may lead to underestimation of the impact of extremely high losses.
+ We therefore also present loss–probability curves for future risks,
+ in order to assess the increase of the most extreme potential loss
+ events. Our approach thus allows a more detailed and comprehensive
+ assessment than previous studies that could also be applied in other
+ study areas to generate flood risk projections. Adaptation through
+ flood prevention measures according to currently planned strategies
+ would counterbalance the increase in expected annual losses due to
+ climate change under all scenarios.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.04.002},
+ issn = {0959-3780},
+ keywords = {Adaptation}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{bovolo+al2008,
+ author = {Bovolo, C. and Blenkinsop, S. and Fowler, H. and B\"urger, C. and
+ Majone, B.},
+ title = {Application of climate change scenarios in {AT} case study catchments},
+ institution = {University of Newcastle, School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences
+ and University of T{\"u}bingen and University of Trento, Dep. of
+ Civil and Environmental Engineering},
+ year = {2008},
+ type = {Aquaterra Deliverable {H}1.12},
+ tags = {Downscaling}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{bovolo+al2009,
+ author = {Bovolo, C. and Blenkinsop, S. and Fowler, H. and {Zambrano-Bigiarini},
+ M. and Bellin, A.},
+ title = {Production of climate change scenarios for large catchments},
+ institution = {Newcastle University, School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences
+ and University of Trento, Dep. of Civil and Environmental Engineering},
+ year = {2009},
+ type = {Aquaterra Deliverable {H}1.13},
+ tags = {Downscaling}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{box1980,
+ author = {Box, G.E.P.},
+ title = {Sampling and {B}ayes' inference in scientific modelling and robustness},
+ journal = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A},
+ year = {1980},
+ volume = {143},
+ pages = {383--430},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {Scientific learning is an iterative process employing Criticism and
+ Estimation. Correspondingly the formulated model factors into two
+ complementary parts a predictive part allowing model criticism, and
+ a Bayes posterior part allowing estimation. Implications for significance
+ tests, the theory of precise measurement and for ridge estimates
+ are considered. Predictive checking functions for transformation,
+ serial correlation, bad values, and their relation with Bayesian
+ options are considered. Robustness is seen from a Bayesian viewpoint
+ and examples are given. For the bad value problem a comparison with
+ M estimators is made.},
+ file = {:E\:\\rojasro\\My Documents\\articles\\Sampling and Bayes inference in scientific modelling and robustness (Box, 1980).pdf:PDF},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.09.10},
+ url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2982063}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{boyer+al2010,
+ author = {Boyer, C. and Chaumont, D. and Chartier, I. and Roy, A.},
+ title = {Impact of climate change on the hydrology of {S}t. {L}awrence tributaries},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {384},
+ pages = {65--83},
+ number = {1--2},
+ abstract = {Changes in temperature and precipitation projected for the next century
+ will induce important modifications into the hydrological regimes
+ of the St. Lawrence tributaries (Quebec, Canada). The temperature
+ increase anticipated during the winter and spring seasons will affect
+ precipitation phase and consequently the snow/precipitation ratio
+ and the water volume stored into snow cover. The impact on northern
+ river hydrology and geomorphology will be significant. In this study
+ we aim to assess the magnitude of the hydrological alteration associated
+ with climate change; to model the projected temporal shift in the
+ occurrence of winter/spring center-volume date; to assess the sensitivity
+ of the winter/spring center-volume date to changes in climatic variables
+ and to examine the latitudinal component of the projected changes
+ through the use of five watersheds on both shores of the St. Lawrence.
+ The study emphasizes changes in the winter and spring seasons. Projected
+ river discharges for the next century were generated with the hydrological
+ model HSAMI run with six climate series projections. Three General
+ Circulation Models (HadCM3, CSIRO-Mk2 and ECHAM4) and two greenhouse
+ gas emissions scenarios (A2 and B2) were used to create a range of
+ plausible scenarios. The projected daily climate series were produced
+ using the historical data of a reference period (1961--1990) with
+ a perturbation factor equivalent to the monthly mean difference (temperature
+ and precipitation) between a GCM in the future for three 30 year
+ horizons (2010--2039, 2040--2069; 2070--2099) and the reference period.
+ These climate projections represent an uncertainty envelope for the
+ projected hydrologic data. Despite the differences due mainly to
+ the GCM used, most of the hydrological simulations projected an increase
+ in winter discharges and a decrease in spring discharges. The center-volume
+ date is expected to be in advance by 22--34 days depending on the
+ latitude of the watershed. The increase in mean temperature with
+ the simultaneous decrease of the snow/precipitation ratio during
+ the winter and spring period explain a large part of the projected
+ hydrological changes. The latitude of the river governed the timing
+ of occurrence of the maximum change (sooner for tributaries located
+ south) and the duration of the period affected by marked changes
+ in the temporal distribution of discharge (longer time scale for
+ rivers located at higher latitudes). Higher winter discharges are
+ expected to have an important geomorphological impact mostly because
+ they may occur under ice-cover conditions. Lower spring discharges
+ may promote sedimentation into the tributary and at their confluence
+ with the St. Lawrence River. The combined effects of modifications
+ in river hydrology and geomorphological processes will likely impact
+ riparian ecosystems.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.01.011},
+ keywords = {River, Hydrology, Climate change, Stream flow, Variability, Modeling},
+ tags = {Climate Change}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{boyle+al2000,
+ author = {Boyle, D. and Gupta, H. and Sorooshian, S.},
+ title = {Toward Improved Calibration of Hydrologic Models: Combining the Strengths
+ of Manual and Automatic Methods},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2000},
+ volume = {36},
+ pages = {3663--3674},
+ number = {12},
+ abstract = {Automatic methods for model calibration seek to take advantage of
+ the speed and power of digital computers, while being objective and
+ relatively easy to implement. However, they do not provide parameter
+ estimates and hydrograph simulations that are considered acceptable
+ by the hydrologists responsible for operational forecasting and have
+ therefore not entered into widespread use. In contrast, the manual
+ approach which has been developed and refined over the years to result
+ in excellent model calibrations is complicated and highly labor-intensive,
+ and the expertise acquired by one individual with a specific model
+ is not easily transferred to another person (or model). In this paper,
+ we propose a hybrid approach that combines the strengths of each.
+ A multicriteria formulation is used to "model" the evaluation techniques
+ and strategies used in manual calibration, and the resulting optimization
+ problem is solved by means of a computerized algorithm. The new approach
+ provides a stronger test of model performance than methods that use
+ a single overall statistic to aggregate model errors over a large
+ range of hydrologic behaviors. The power of the new approach is illustrated
+ by means of a case study using the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting
+ model.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2000WR900207},
+ keywords = {Manual calibration, automatic calibration, multi-criteria, multi-objective,
+ RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS, IMPROVED PARAMETER INFERENCE, SHUFFLED COMPLEX
+ EVOLUTION, GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION, CATCHMENT MODELS, UNCERTAINTY, ALGORITHMS,
+ SCHEME},
+ tags = {Calibration, Goodness-of-Fit}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{bredehoeft2005,
+ author = {Bredehoeft, J.},
+ title = {The conceptualization model problem--surprise},
+ journal = {Hydrogeology Journal},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {13},
+ pages = {37--46},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {The foundation of model analysis is the conceptual model. Surprise
+ is defined as new data that renders the prevailing conceptual model
+ invalid; as defined here it represents a paradigm shift. Limited
+ empirical data indicate that surprises occur in 20–30% of model analyses.
+ These data suggest that groundwater analysts have difficulty selecting
+ the appropriate conceptual model. There is no ready remedy to the
+ conceptual model problem other than (1) to collect as much data as
+ is feasible, using all applicable methods—a complementary data collection
+ methodology can lead to new information that changes the prevailing
+ conceptual model, and (2) for the analyst to remain open to the fact
+ that the conceptual model can change dramatically as more information
+ is collected. In the final analysis, the hydrogeologist makes a subjective
+ decision on the appropriate conceptual model. The conceptualization
+ problem does not render models unusable. The problem introduces an
+ uncertainty that often is not widely recognized. Conceptual model
+ uncertainty is exacerbated in making long-term predictions of system
+ performance.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10040-004-0430-5},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{bredehoeft2003,
+ author = {Bredehoeft, J.},
+ title = {From models to performance assessment: {T}he conceptualization problem},
+ journal = {Ground Water},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {41},
+ pages = {571--577},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {Today, models are ubiquitous tools for ground water analyses. The
+ intent of this paper is to explore philosophically the role of the
+ conceptual model in analysis. Selection of the appropriate conceptual
+ model is an a priori decision by the analyst. Calibration is an integral
+ part of the modeling process. Unfortunately a wrong or incomplete
+ conceptual model can often be adequately calibrated; good calibration
+ of a model does not ensure a correct conceptual model. Petroleum
+ engineers have another term for calibration; they refer to it as
+ history matching. A caveat to the idea of history matching is that
+ we can make a prediction with some confidence equal to the period
+ of the history match. In other words, if we have matched a 10-year
+ history, we can predict for 10 years with reasonable confidence;
+ beyond 10 years the confidence in the prediction diminishes rapidly.
+ The same rule of thumb applies to ground water model analyses. Nuclear
+ waste disposal poses a difficult problem because the time horizon,
+ 1000 years or longer, is well beyond the possibility of the history
+ match (or period of calibration) in the traditional analysis. Nonetheless,
+ numerical models appear to be the tool of choice for analyzing the
+ safety of waste facilities. Models have a well-recognized inherent
+ uncertainty. Performance assessment, the technique for assessing
+ the safety of nuclear waste facilities, involves an ensemble of cascading
+ models. Performance assessment with its ensemble of models multiplies
+ the inherent uncertainty of the single model. The closer we can approach
+ the idea of a long history with which to match the models, even models
+ of nuclear waste facilities, the more confidence we will have in
+ the analysis (and the models, including performance assessment).
+ This thesis argues for prolonged periods of observation (perhaps
+ as long as 300 to 1000 years) before a nuclear waste facility is
+ finally closed.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1745-6584.2003.tb02395.x},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{bronstert+al2007,
+ author = {Bronstert, A. and Kolokotronis, V. and Schwandt, D. and Straub, H.},
+ title = {Comparison and evaluation of regional climate scenarios for hydrological
+ impact analysis: {G}eneral scheme and application example},
+ journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {27},
+ pages = {1579--1594},
+ number = {12},
+ abstract = {We present a scheme and application example for evaluating simulations
+ of possible future conditions of regional climate (‘regional climate
+ change scenarios’) concerning their suitability for hydrological
+ impact studies. The procedure is based on expert knowledge about
+ the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on varying hydrological
+ processes and different hydrological catchment status. A method to
+ evaluate regional climate change scenarios for hydrological impact
+ analysis is presented first, which consists basically of a two-step
+ knowledge-based decision and evaluation procedure. The first step
+ (‘climatic evaluation’) evaluates the capability of the climate scenarios
+ to represent regional climate and the plausibility of the future
+ climate conditions. The first step establishes the basis for the
+ second step (‘hydrological evaluation’), which evaluates hydrologically
+ relevant information of the climate scenarios to qualify information
+ about the hydrological processes possibly altered by climate change.
+ From this evaluation of the hydrological processes, an evaluation
+ of regional catchment conditions is derived, such as long-term water
+ availability, drought conditions or floods. In the second part of
+ the paper, this method is applied systematically to three different
+ regional climate change scenarios, which have been provided for south
+ Germany. This evaluation results in different levels of adequacy,
+ depending on the hydrological process under question. In general,
+ processes which are governed by temperature conditions (e.g. evaporation,
+ snowmelt) are evaluated as ‘more useful’ than the processes governed
+ by precipitation characteristics (e.g. runoff generation, floods).
+ All regional climate change scenario methods investigated are of
+ rather limited value for extreme hydrological conditions. The proposed
+ method can serve to systematically evaluate the usefulness of climate
+ change scenarios for hydrological impact analysis. It becomes apparent
+ that regional climate scenarios should only be applied for hydrological
+ application if the spatial-temporal scale of variations of the governing
+ hydrological processes is represented by the scenarios.},
+ doi = {10.1002/joc.1621},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.07.30}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{bronstert+al2002,
+ author = {Bronstert, A. and Niehoff, D. and B\"urger, G.},
+ title = {Effects of climate and land-use change on storm runoff generation:
+ {P}resent knowledge and modelling capabilities},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {16},
+ pages = {509},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {There are several indications that changes in land cover have influenced
+ the hydrological regime of various river basins. In addition, the
+ effects of climate change on the hydrological cycle and on the runoff
+ behaviour of river catchments have been discussed extensively in
+ recent years. However, it is at present rather uncertain how, how
+ much and at which spatial scale these environmental changes are likely
+ to affect the generation of storm runoff, and consequently the flood
+ discharges of rivers. Firstly, this paper gives an overview of the
+ possible effects of climatic and land-use change on storm runoff
+ generation. Secondly, it discusses models dealing with the hydrological
+ response to climate and land-use variations, including both the downscaling
+ of climate information from global circulation models and the way
+ flood forecasting models represent land-use conditions. Finally,
+ two modelling studies of meso-scale catchments in Germany are presented:
+ the first shows the possible impacts of climate change on storm runoff
+ production, and the second the impacts of land-use changes.},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.326},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{brookslerner1994,
+ author = {Brooks, R. and Lerner, D. and Tobias, A.},
+ title = {Determining the range of predictions of a groundwater model which
+ arises from alternative calibrations},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1994},
+ volume = {30},
+ pages = {2993--3000},
+ number = {11},
+ abstract = {A major element in constructing a groundwater model is choosing the
+ parameter values. The traditional approach is to aim for a single
+ best set of values. The parameters used in a model are effective
+ rather than measurable, and this combined with the inherent uncertainties
+ in the modeling process means that there are often many plausible
+ sets of values. A single prediction obtained from a single set of
+ parameter values is not appropriate, but rather the range in predictions
+ from the alternative calibrations should be used. A method is presented
+ for finding the best case and worst case predictions among the plausible
+ parameter sets and is applied to a real case study. Widely different
+ feasible parameter sets were found giving significantly different
+ predictions.},
+ doi = {10.1029/94WR00947},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{brooks1998,
+ author = {Brooks, S.},
+ title = {Markov chain {M}onte {C}arlo method and its application},
+ journal = {The Statistician},
+ year = {1998},
+ volume = {47},
+ pages = {69--100},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, as a computer-intensive
+ statistical tool, has enjoyed an enormous upsurge in interest over
+ the last few years. This paper provides a simple, comprehensive and
+ tutorial review of some of the most common areas of research in this
+ field. We begin by discussing how MCMC algorithms can be constructed
+ from standard building- blocks to produce Markov chains with the
+ desired stationary distribution. We also motivate and discuss more
+ complex ideas that have been proposed in the literature, such as
+ continuous time and dimension jumping methods. We discuss some implementational
+ issues associated with MCMC methods. We take a look at the arguments
+ for and against multiple replications, consider how long chains should
+ be run for and how to determine suitable starting points. We also
+ take a look at graphical models and how graphical approaches can
+ be used to simplify MCMC implementation. Finally, we present a couple
+ of examples, which we use as case-studies to highlight some of the
+ points made earlier in the text. In particular, we use a simple changepoint
+ model to illustrate how to tackle a typical Bayesian modelling problem
+ via the MCMC method, before using mixture model problems to provide
+ illustrations of good sampler output and of the implementation of
+ a reversible jump MCMC algorithm.},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ refid = {BROOKS1998},
+ timestamp = {2008.11.04},
+ url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2988428}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{brooksgelman1998,
+ author = {Brooks, S. and Gelman, A.},
+ title = {General methods for monitoring convergence of iterative simulations},
+ journal = {Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics},
+ year = {1998},
+ volume = {7},
+ pages = {434--455},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {We generalize the method proposed by Gelman and Rubin (1992a) for
+ monitoring the convergence of iterative simulations by comparing
+ between and within variances of multiple chains, in order to obtain
+ a family of tests for convergence. We review methods of inference
+ from simulations in order to develop convergence-monitoring summaries
+ that are relevant for the purposes for which the simulations are
+ used. We recommend applying a battery of tests for mixing based on
+ the comparison of inferences from individual sequences and from the
+ mixture of sequences. Finally, we discuss multivariate analogues,
+ for assessing convergence of several parameters simultaneously.},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ refid = {BROOKS1998A},
+ timestamp = {2008.11.04},
+ url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/1390675}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{bubeck+al2011,
+ author = {Bubeck, P. and de Moel, H. and Bouwer, L. M. and Aerts, J. C. J.
+ H.},
+ title = {How reliable are projections of future flood damage?},
+ journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Science},
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {11},
+ pages = {3293--3306},
+ number = {12},
+ doi = {10.5194/nhess-11-3293-2011}
+}
+
+@INPROCEEDINGS{buckley1995,
+ author = {Buckley, K. and Binley, A. and Beven, K.},
+ title = {Calibration and predictive uncertainty estimation of groundwater
+ quality models: {A}pplication to the {T}win {L}ake {T}racer {T}est},
+ booktitle = {Groundwater {Q}uality {M}anagement: {P}roceedings of the {GQM}3 {C}onference},
+ year = {1995},
+ pages = {205--214},
+ address = {Tallinn, Estonia},
+ publisher = {vol, 220. IAHS Publ.},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.12.02}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{buonomo+al2007,
+ author = {Buonomo, E. and Jones, R. and Huntingford, C. and Hannaford, J.},
+ title = {On the robustness of changes in extreme precipitation over {E}urope
+ from two high resolution climate change simulations},
+ journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {133},
+ pages = {65--81},
+ number = {622},
+ abstract = {Two Regional Climate Model (RCM) projections of changes in extreme
+ precipitation over Europe are assessed and compared. This provides
+ insight into the importance of RCM formulation in representing changes
+ in climate extremes at high spatial resolution. The models concerned
+ are two recent Hadley Centre RCMs, HadRM2 and HadRM3, and are applied
+ at a horizontal resolution of approximately 50 km over Europe, nested
+ within the Hadley Centre coupled Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation
+ Model (AOGCM), HadCM2. The simulation periods are thirty years with
+ fixed concentrations of greenhouse gases representing the climate
+ of 1961-1990 and twenty years representing transient climate change
+ for 2080-2100. The use of common boundary conditions to drive the
+ two RCMs allows us to determine whether their different formulations
+ significantly alter the downscaled projections. The RCM simulations
+ of precipitation extremes are compared with observations from a dense
+ rain-gauge network over Great Britain, aggregated to the grid used
+ by the RCMs. Both RCMs simulate realistically extreme precipitation
+ occurring over timescales of one to thirty days and for return periods
+ of two to twenty years. In particular, relative errors in the magnitude
+ of extreme precipitation are generally no larger than those in the
+ mean. The two regional models show different patterns of errors for
+ daily precipitation extremes, with the main difference in the western
+ and upland areas of Great Britain where they are underestimated in
+ HadRM2 and overestimated in HadRM3. Change in extremes over all land
+ areas in the domain show increases in intensity everywhere (except
+ for the Iberian peninsula and Mediterranean coast) with most of these
+ significant at the 5% level. Projected increases are greatest for
+ those extremes which are the rarest and shortest duration (i.e. the
+ most intense), both in relative and thus absolute terms. The large-scale
+ patterns of these changes are very similar in the two RCMs implying
+ they are generally robust to the RCM formulation changes. Given the
+ demonstrated quality of the models this enhances our confidence in
+ the projected changes and suggests that they are mainly conditioned
+ by the large-scale response in the driving GCM},
+ doi = {10.1002/qj.13},
+ keywords = {PRUDENCE},
+ tags = {Multimodel - Ensambles}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{burkebrown2008,
+ author = {Burke, E. and Brown, S.},
+ title = {Evaluating uncertainties in the projection of future drought},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {9},
+ pages = {292--299},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {The uncertainty in the projection of future drought occurrence was
+ explored for four different drought indices using two model ensembles.
+ The first ensemble expresses uncertainty in the parameter space of
+ the third Hadley Centre climate model, and the second is a multimodel
+ ensemble that additionally expresses structural uncertainty in the
+ climate modeling process. The standardized precipitation index (SPI),
+ the precipitation and potential evaporation anomaly (PPEA), the Palmer
+ drought severity index (PDSI), and the soil moisture anomaly (SMA)
+ were derived for both a single CO2 (1×CO2) and a double CO2 (2×CO2)
+ climate. The change in moderate drought, defined by the 20th percentile
+ of the relevant 1×CO2 distribution, was calculated. SPI, based solely
+ on precipitation, shows little change in the proportion of the land
+ surface in drought. All the other indices, which include a measure
+ of the atmospheric demand for moisture, show a significant increase
+ with an additional 5%–45% of the land surface in drought. There are
+ large uncertainties in regional changes in drought. Regions where
+ the precipitation decreases show a reproducible increase in drought
+ across ensemble members and indices. In other regions the sign and
+ magnitude of the change in drought is dependent on index definition
+ and ensemble member, suggesting that the selection of appropriate
+ drought indices is important for impact studies.},
+ doi = {10.1175/2007JHM929.1},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.07.04}
+}
+
+@BOOK{burnhamanderson2002,
+ title = {Model selection and multimodel inference. {A} practical information--theoretic
+ approach},
+ publisher = {Springer--Verlag},
+ year = {2002},
+ author = {Burnham, K. and Anderson, D.},
+ pages = {496},
+ address = {New York},
+ edition = {Second},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{burton+al2010,
+ author = {Burton, A. and Fowler, H. and Blenkinsop, S. and Kilsby, C.},
+ title = {Downscaling transient climate change using a {N}eyman--{S}cott {R}ectangular
+ {P}ulses stochastic rainfall model},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {381},
+ pages = {18--32},
+ number = {1--2},
+ abstract = {The future management of hydrological systems must be informed by
+ climate change projections at relevant time horizons and at appropriate
+ spatial scales. Furthermore, the robustness of such management decisions
+ is dependent on both the uncertainty inherent in future climate change
+ scenarios and the natural climate system. Addressing these needs,
+ we present a new transient rainfall simulation methodology which
+ combines dynamical and statistical downscaling techniques to produce
+ transient (i.e. temporally non-stationary) climate change scenarios.
+ This is used to generate a transient multi-model ensemble of simulated
+ point-scale rainfall time series for 1997--2085 for the polluted
+ Br{\'e}villes spring in Northern France. The recovery of this previously
+ potable source may be affected by climatic changes and variability
+ over the next few decades. The provision of locally-relevant transient
+ climate change scenarios for use as input to hydrological models
+ of both water quality and quantity will ultimately provide a valuable
+ resource for planning and decision making. Observed rainfall from
+ 1988--2006 was characterised in terms of a set of statistics for
+ each calendar month: the daily mean, variance, probability dry, lag-1
+ autocorrelation and skew, and the monthly variance. The Neyman--Scott
+ Rectangular Pulses (NSRP) stochastic rainfall model was fitted to
+ these observed statistics and correctly simulated both monthly statistics
+ and extreme rainfall properties. Multiplicative change factors which
+ quantify the change in each statistic between the periods 1961--1990
+ and 2071-2100 were estimated for each month and for each of 13 Regional
+ Climate Models (RCMs) from the PRUDENCE ensemble. To produce transient
+ climate change scenarios, pattern scaling factors were estimated
+ and interpolated from four time-slice integrations of two General
+ Circulation Models which condition the RCMs, ECHAM4/OPYC and HadCM3.
+ Applying both factors to the observed statistics provided projected
+ transient rainfall statistics (PTRS) to which piece-wise smoothly
+ varying transient rainfall model parameterizations were fitted. These
+ fits provided good representations of the PTRS for each RCM. An ensemble
+ of 100 continuous daily rainfall time series, with steadily varying
+ stochastic properties which model these projections of transient
+ climate change, was then simulated using a new transient NSRP simulation
+ methodology for each RCM. Together the ensembles form a 1300 member
+ transient multi-model ensemble of rainfall time series.The simulated
+ transient ensemble properties were investigated, identifying RCMs
+ giving rise to unusual behaviour. For the Br{\'e}villes, annual rainfall
+ is projected to decrease until 2085 but the change is highly sensitive
+ to General Circulation Model forcing; ECHAM4-driven RCMs project
+ larger annual decreases than HadCM3/HadAM3H/P driven RCMs. All RCMs
+ project an increase in winter rainfall and a larger summer decrease.
+ An increase of not, vert, similar10% in the 10-year return period
+ annual maximum rainfall is projected by 2085, however both strong
+ increasing trends and a slight decreasing trend are found for individual
+ RCMs. Compared with transient RCMs, the new methodology provides
+ a number of advantages: reduced biases, point scale scenarios relevant
+ for local-scale impact studies, improved representation of natural
+ variability and improved representation of extremes.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.10.031},
+ tags = {Downscaling}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{butts2004,
+ author = {Butts, M. and Payne, J. and Kristensen, M. and Madsen, H.},
+ title = {An evaluation of the impact of model structure on hydrological modelling
+ uncertainty for streamflow simulation},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {298},
+ pages = {242--266},
+ number = {1--4},
+ abstract = {Operational flood management and warning requires the delivery of
+ timely and accurate forecasts. The use of distributed and physically
+ based forecasting models can provide improved streamflow forecasts.
+ However, for operational modelling there is a trade-off between the
+ complexity of the model descriptions necessary to represent the catchment
+ processes, the accuracy and representativeness of the input data
+ available for forecasting and the accuracy required to achieve reliable,
+ operational flood management and warning. Four sources of uncertainty
+ occur in deterministic flow modelling; random or systematic errors
+ in the model inputs or boundary condition data, random or systematic
+ errors in the recorded output data, uncertainty due to sub-optimal
+ parameter values and errors due to incomplete or biased model structure.
+ While many studies have addressed the issues of sub-optimal parameter
+ estimation, parameter uncertainty and model calibration very few
+ have examined the impact of model structure error and complexity
+ on model performance and modelling uncertainty. In this study a general
+ hydrological framework is described that allows the selection of
+ different model structures within the same modelling tool. Using
+ this tool a systematic investigation is carried out to determine
+ the performance of different model structures for the DMIP study
+ Blue River catchment using a split sample evaluation procedure. This
+ investigation addresses two questions. First, different model structures
+ are expected to perform differently, but is there a trade-off between
+ model complexity and predictive ability? Secondly, how does the magnitude
+ of model structure uncertainty compare to the other sources of uncertainty?
+ The relative performance of different acceptable model structures
+ is evaluated as a representation of structural uncertainty and compared
+ to estimates of the uncertainty arising from measurement uncertainty,
+ parametric uncertainty and the rainfall input. The results show first
+ that model performance is strongly dependent on model structure.
+ Distributed routing and to a lesser extent distributed rainfall were
+ found to be the dominant processes controlling simulation accuracy
+ in the Blue River basin. Secondly that the sensitivity to variations
+ in acceptable model structure are of the same magnitude as uncertainties
+ arising from the other evaluated sources. This suggests that for
+ practical hydrological predictions there are important benefits in
+ exploring different model structures as part of the overall modelling
+ approach. Furthermore the model structural uncertainty should be
+ considered in assessing model uncertainties. Finally our results
+ show that combinations of several model structures can be a means
+ of improving hydrological simulations.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.03.042},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{buytaert2009,
+ author = {Buytaert, W. and C\'elleri, R. and Timbe, L.},
+ title = {Predicting climate change impacts on water resources in the tropical
+ {A}ndes: {E}ffects of {GCM} uncertainty},
+ journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {36},
+ pages = {1--5},
+ number = {L07406},
+ abstract = {There is a strong demand from policy makers for predictions about
+ the potential impacts of climate change on water resources. Integrated
+ environmental models, combining climatic and hydrologic models, are
+ often used for this purpose. This paper examines the impact of uncertainties
+ related to GCMs in hydrological impact studies in the tropical Andes.
+ A conceptual hydrological model is calibrated on data from four mesoscale,
+ mountainous catchments in south Ecuador. The model inputs are then
+ perturbed with anomalies projected by 20 GCMs available from the
+ IPCC Data Distribution Centre. The results show that on average,
+ the average monthly discharge is not expected to change dramatically.
+ However, the simulated discharges driven by different global climate
+ model forcing data can diverge widely, with prediction ranges often
+ surpassing current discharge.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2008GL037048},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.21}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{buytaert2010,
+ author = {Buytaert, W. and Vuille, M. and Dewulf, A. and Urrutia, R. and Karmalkar,
+ A. and C\'elleri, R.},
+ title = {Uncertainties in climate change projections and regional downscalling:
+ implications for water resources management},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {7},
+ pages = {1821--1848},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {Climate change is expected to have a large impact on water resources
+ worldwide. A major problem in assessing the potential impact of a
+ changing climate on these resources is the difference in spatial
+ scale between available climate change projections and water resources
+ management. Regional climate models (RCMs) are often used for the
+ spatial disaggregation of the outputs of global circulation models.
+ However, RCMs are time-intensive to run and typically only a small
+ number of model runs is available for a certain region of interest.
+ This paper investigates the value of the improved representation
+ of local climate processes by a regional climate model for water
+ resources management in the tropical Andes of Ecuador. This region
+ has a complex hydrology and its water resources are under pressure.
+ Compared to the IPCC AR4 model ensemble, the regional climate model
+ PRECIS does indeed capture local gradients better than global models,
+ but locally the model is prone to large discrepancies between observed
+ and modelled precipitation. It is concluded that a further increase
+ in resolution is necessary to represent local gradients properly.
+ Furthermore, to assess the uncertainty in downscaling, an ensemble
+ of regional climate models should be implemented. Finally, translating
+ the climate variables to streamflow using a hydrological model constitutes
+ a smaller but not negligible source of uncertainty.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hessd-7-1821-2010},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.21}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{caballero+al2007,
+ author = {Caballero, Y. and {Voirin-Morel}, S. and Habets, F. and Noilhan,
+ J. and {LeMoigne}, P. and Lehenaff, A. and Boone, A.},
+ title = {Hydrological sensitivity of the {A}dour--{G}aronne river basin to
+ climate change},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {43},
+ pages = {W07448},
+ number = {7},
+ abstract = {Output atmospheric fields from seven global climate models (GCMs)
+ were extracted over a domain covering the Adour-Garonne basin in
+ southwestern France in order to calculate precipitation and temperature
+ anomalies for the decade 2050--2060 relative to the present climate.
+ These anomalies showed a general trend of increasing precipitation
+ in wintertime and decreasing precipitation in summertime, together
+ with an increase in the annual average temperature of approximately
+ 2°C. The anomalies were used to create seven modified climate-forcing
+ data sets, which were then used to drive the SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM)
+ hydrometeorological modeling system. The river discharge simulated
+ by the SIM model under each modified climate for the 2050--2060 decade
+ was compared to the discharge simulated for the 1985--1995 reference
+ decade. The results show a slight decrease in the low river flow,
+ on the order of 11% ± 8% on average for all of the climate-forcing
+ data sets and the hydrometric stations. However, there was a significant
+ impact on the snowpack in terms of reduced snow cover depth and duration.
+ These changes provoked a discharge decrease in the spring and a large
+ increase in winter due to the additional liquid precipitation. Considering
+ the large range in climate conditions of the period studied, it appears
+ that the hydrological sensitivity of the river basin is greater when
+ applying the same climate modification to a wet year as opposed to
+ a dry year. Finally, a transient climate forcing covering the 1985--2095
+ period provokes a general tendency to decrease the river discharge
+ for all seasons},
+ doi = {10.1029/2005WR004192},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, Impacts}
+}
+
+@BOOK{cacuci2003,
+ title = {Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis: {T}heory},
+ publisher = {Chapman \& Hall/CRC},
+ year = {2003},
+ author = {Cacuci, D.},
+ pages = {304},
+ address = {Florida},
+ edition = {First},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.03.26}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{calanca2007,
+ author = {Pierluigi Calanca},
+ title = {Climate change and drought occurrence in the Alpine region: How severe
+ are becoming the extremes?},
+ journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {57},
+ pages = {151--160},
+ number = {1–2},
+ abstract = {There are clear indications that in the future the Alpine region will
+ increasingly suffer from droughts. In this paper, a simple method
+ is devised for determining probability of drought occurrence and
+ exceedance of severity thresholds. A reconstruction of drought occurrence
+ during the past 100Â yr indicates that the method is able to detect
+ major events and also to correctly gauge their relative severity.
+ The procedure is used in conjunction with climate simulations for
+ the European region valid for 2071–2100 to study the impact of climate
+ change on the likelihood and severity of droughts. The climate scenario
+ used for the analysis refers to a SRES A2 emission pathway and specifies
+ in particular a decrease in the frequency of wet days of about 20%
+ with respect to the growing season of summer crops (April to September).
+ Under these conditions the frequency of droughts is shown to increase
+ from about 15% to more than 50%. In addition, the results indicate
+ an overall shift in the distribution toward higher severity scores.
+ The average severity increases by a factor of two, but also at the
+ upper end of the spectrum severity increases by more than 20%. It
+ is argued that this will affect the perception of extreme droughts,
+ i.e. of those events rarer than the 10th percentile of the distribution.
+ If this scenario comes true, by the end of the 21st century droughts
+ comparable in severity to the 2003 event would represent the norm
+ rather than the exception.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.11.001},
+ issn = {0921-8181},
+ keywords = {droughts}
+}
+
+@BOOK{calvetti2007,
+ title = {An introduction to {B}ayesian scientific computing},
+ publisher = {Springer-Verlag},
+ year = {2007},
+ author = {Calvetti, D. and Somersalo, E.},
+ volume = {2},
+ pages = {202},
+ series = {Surveys and tutorials in the applied mathematical sciences},
+ address = {Berlin, Germany},
+ edition = {First},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.11.18}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{cameron2006,
+ author = {Cameron, D.},
+ title = {An application of the {UKCIP02} climate change scenarios to flood
+ estimation by continuous simulation for a gauged catchment in the
+ northeast of {S}cotland, {UK} (with uncertainty)},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {328},
+ pages = {212--226},
+ number = {1--2},
+ abstract = {This paper explores the potential impacts of climate change upon flood
+ frequency for the gauged, Lossie catchment in the northeast of Scotland,
+ UK. This catchment has significant flooding problems, but only limited
+ data availability (particularly with respect to rainfall). A continuous
+ simulation methodology, which uses a stochastic rainfall model to
+ drive the rainfall-runoff model TOPMODEL, is utilised. Behavioural
+ parameter sets for TOPMODEL are identified prior to the climate change
+ runs using the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE)
+ methodology. The {\grqq}Low Emissions�, {\grqq}Medium-Low Emissions�,
+ {\grqq}Medium-High Emissions� and {\grqq}High Emissions� UKCIP02
+ climate change scenarios, obtained from the HadCM3 global climate
+ model (GCM) and HadRM3 regional climate model (RCM) simulations,
+ are used at the catchment scale. Two further scenarios ({\grqq}H-Dry�
+ and {\grqq}H-Wet�), based upon the model uncertainty margins available
+ for the UKCIP02 {\grqq}High Emissions� scenario, are also developed
+ in order to explore the possible range of changes to daily rainfall
+ and temperature estimated from GCMs other than HadCM3. It is demonstrated
+ that, while flood magnitude changes under all six of the climate
+ change scenarios considered, the magnitude and direction of that
+ change is dependent upon the choice of scenario. An overlap between
+ the likelihood weighted uncertainty bounds estimated under the conditions
+ of the current climate and those estimated under the four UKCIP02
+ scenarios and the {\grqq}H-Dry� scenario is also observed. These
+ findings highlight the need to consider multiple climate change scenarios
+ and account for model uncertainties when estimating the possible
+ effects of climate change upon flood frequency},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.12.024},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{campolongo+al2000,
+ author = {Campolongo, F. and Tarantola, S. and Saltelli, A.},
+ title = {{Sensitivity Anaysis as an Ingredient of Modeling}},
+ journal = {Statistical Science},
+ year = {2000},
+ volume = {15},
+ pages = {377},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {We explore the tasks where sensitivity analysis (SA) can be useful
+ and try to assess the relevance of SA within the modeling process.
+ We suggest that SA could considerably assist in the use of models,
+ by providing objective criteria of judgement for different phases
+ of the model{-}building process: model identification and discrimination;
+ model calibration; model corroboration. We review some new global
+ quantitative SA methods and suggest that these might enlarge the
+ scope for sensitivity analysis in computational and statistical modeling
+ practice. Among the advantages of the new methods are their robustness,
+ model independence and computational convenience. The discussion
+ is based on worked examples.},
+ doi = {10.1214/ss/1009213004},
+ tags = {Sensitivity Analysis}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{cancellieresalas2010,
+ author = {Antonino Cancelliere and Jose D. Salas},
+ title = {Drought probabilities and return period for annual streamflows series},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {391},
+ pages = {77--89},
+ number = {1--2},
+ abstract = {Summary Probabilistic characterization of drought events is extremely
+ important in water resources planning and management. In spite of
+ the large number of studies that have been carried on the subject,
+ the exact derivation of the probabilistic structure of drought characteristics
+ is still an open problem, especially when both duration and accumulated
+ deficit (or intensity) are taken into account. This study focuses
+ on the derivation of the probability distribution of drought episodes
+ considering both drought duration and accumulated deficit (or intensity)
+ as well as of the ensuing return period, when the underlying hydrological
+ variable is autocorrelated. First, the marginal distribution of drought
+ length is investigated, showing that the simple Markov chain, usually
+ adopted to model the sequence of deficits and surpluses, is not adequate
+ when the underlying series exhibits a significant autocorrelation.
+ Following previous studies, a Discrete Autoregressive Moving Average
+ (DARMA) model is proposed to better model drought length. Then, the
+ derivation of the moments of accumulated deficit conditioned on a
+ fixed drought length is pursued. It is shown that the deficit series
+ that is obtained by clipping an autocorrelated stationary series
+ with a constant threshold is not i.i.d., and therefore not stationary.
+ Thus, a fully multivariate approach, based on a truncated multivariate
+ normal model, is applied to derive the moments of accumulated deficit
+ as a function of the distribution of the underlying variable and
+ of the threshold. In order to overcome numerical difficulties related
+ to the integration of the multivariate distributions, empirical approximations
+ are also proposed. Such moments are then used to derive approximate
+ expressions of the bivariate distributions of accumulated deficit
+ (or intensity) and length, based on the assumption that the distribution
+ of accumulated deficit conditioned on a fixed length is beta, and
+ expressions to compute the return period of drought events. The proposed
+ procedure is illustrated by applying it to four streamflow data characterized
+ by different levels of autocorrelation and skewness.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.008},
+ issn = {0022-1694},
+ keywords = {Drought}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{cao+al2006,
+ author = {Cao, W. and Bowden, W. and Davie, T. and Fenemor, A.},
+ title = {{Multi-variable and multi-site calibration and validation of SWAT
+ in a large mountainous catchment with high spatial variability}},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {20},
+ pages = {1057--1073},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {Many methods developed for calibration and validation of physically
+ based distributed hydrological models are time consuming and computationally
+ intensive. Only a small set of input parameters can be optimized,
+ and the optimization often results in unrealistic values. In this
+ study we adopted a multi-variable and multi-site approach to calibration
+ and validation of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for
+ the Motueka catchment, making use of extensive field measurements.
+ Not only were a number of hydrological processes (model components)
+ in a catchment evaluated, but also a number of subcatchments were
+ used in the calibration. The internal variables used were PET, annual
+ water yield, daily streamflow, baseflow, and soil moisture. The study
+ was conducted using an 11-year historical flow record (1990-2000);
+ 1990-94 was used for calibration and 1995-2000 for validation. SWAT
+ generally predicted well the PET, water yield and daily streamflow.
+ The predicted daily strearnflow matched the observed values, with
+ a Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.78 during calibration and 0.72
+ during validation. However, values for subcatchments ranged from
+ 0.31 to 0.67 during calibration, and 0.36 to 0.52 during validation.
+ The predicted soil moisture remained wet compared with the measurement.
+ About 50\% of the extra soil water storage predicted by the model
+ can be ascribed to overprediction of precipitation; the remaining
+ 50\% discrepancy was likely to be a result of poor representation
+ of soil properties. Hydrological compensations in the modelling results
+ are derived from water balances in the various pathways and storage
+ (evaporation, strearnflow, surface runoff, soil moisture and groundwater)
+ and the contributions to strearnflow from different geographic areas
+ (hill slopes, variable source areas, sub-basins, and subcatchments).
+ The use of an integrated multi-variable and multi-site method improved
+ the model calibration and validation and highlighted the areas and
+ hydrological processes requiring greater calibration effort. Copyright
+ (c) 2005 John Wiley \& Sons, Ltd.},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.5933},
+ keywords = {physically based distributed hydrological models, calibration and
+ validation, soil and water assessment tool, spatial variability,
+ RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS, PARAMETER-ESTIMATION, HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE,
+ SCALE, UNCERTAINTY, SYSTEM},
+ tags = {SWAT, Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{capilla2009,
+ author = {Capilla, J. and {Llopis-Albert}, C.},
+ title = {Gradual conditioning of non--{G}aussian transmissivity fields to
+ flow and mass transport data: 1. {T}heory},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {371},
+ pages = {66--74},
+ number = {1--4},
+ abstract = {The paper presents a new stochastic inverse method for the simulation
+ of transmissivity (T) fields conditional to T measurements, secondary
+ information obtained from expert judgement and geophysical surveys,
+ transient piezometric and solute concentration measurements, and
+ travel time data. The formulation of the method is simple and derived
+ from the gradual deformation method. It basically consists of an
+ iterative optimization procedure in which successive combinations
+ of T fields, that honour T measurements and soft data (secondary
+ data obtained from expert judgement and/or geophysical surveys),
+ gradually lead to a simulated T field conditional to flow and mass
+ transport data. Every combination of fields requires minimizing a
+ penalty function that penalizes the difference between computed and
+ measured conditioning data. This penalty function depends on only
+ one parameter. Travel time conditioning data are considered by means
+ of a backward-in-time probabilistic model, which extends the potential
+ applications of the method to the characterization of groundwater
+ contamination sources. In order to solve the mass transport equation,
+ the method implements a Lagrangian approach that allows avoiding
+ numerical problems usually found in Eulerian methods. Besides, to
+ deal with highly heterogeneous and non-Gaussian media, being able
+ to reproduce anomalous breakthrough curves, a dual-domain approach
+ is implemented with a first-order mass transfer approach. To determine
+ the particle distribution between the mobile domain and the immobile
+ domain the method uses a Bernoulli trial on the appropriate phase
+ transition probabilities, derived using the normalized zeroth spatial
+ moments of the multirate transport equations. The presented method
+ does not require assuming the classical multiGaussian hypothesis
+ thus easing the reproduction of T spatial patterns where extreme
+ values of T show high connectivity. This feature allows the reproduction
+ of a property found in real formations, which is often crucial to
+ obtain safe estimations of mass transport predictions. Furthermore,
+ very few existing methods can afford with this stochastic property.
+ In fact, this new approach gathers a set of capabilities so far not
+ included in any existing method.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.03.015},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.10.20}
+}
+
+@INPROCEEDINGS{carlisledozier2001,
+ author = {Carlisle, A. and Dozier, G.},
+ title = {An off-the-shelf {PSO}},
+ booktitle = {Proceedings of the Particle Swarm Optimization Workshop},
+ year = {2001},
+ pages = {1--6},
+ address = {Purdue Sch. of Eng. and Technol., Indianapolis, Indiana},
+ tags = {Calibration, PSO}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{carreraetal2005,
+ author = {Carrera, J. and Alcolea, A. and Medina, A. and Hidalgo, J. and Slooten,
+ L.},
+ title = {Inverse problem in hydrogeology},
+ journal = {Hydrogeology Journal},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {13},
+ pages = {206--222},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {The state of the groundwater inverse problem is synthesized. Emphasis
+ is placed on aquifer characterization, where modelers have to deal
+ with conceptual model uncertainty (notably spatial and temporal variability),
+ scale dependence, many types of unknown parameters (transmissivity,
+ recharge, boundary conditions, etc.), nonlinearity, and often low
+ sensitivity of state variables (typically heads and concentrations)
+ to aquifer properties. Because of these difficulties, calibration
+ cannot be separated from the modeling process, as it is sometimes
+ done in other fields. Instead, it should be viewed as one step in
+ the process of understanding aquifer behavior. In fact, it is shown
+ that actual parameter estimation methods do not differ from each
+ other in the essence, though they may differ in the computational
+ details. It is argued that there is ample room for improvement in
+ groundwater inversion: development of user-friendly codes, accommodation
+ of variability through geostatistics, incorporation of geological
+ information and different types of data (temperature, occurrence
+ and concentration of isotopes, age, etc.), proper accounting of uncertainty,
+ etc. Despite this, even with existing codes, automatic calibration
+ facilitates enormously the task of modeling. Therefore, it is contended
+ that its use should become standard practice.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10040-004-0404-7},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{carrera1986a,
+ author = {Carrera, J. and Neuman, S.},
+ title = {Estimation of aquifer parameters under transient and steady state
+ conditions: 1. {M}aximum likelihood method incorporating prior information},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1986},
+ volume = {22},
+ pages = {199--210},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {In this series of three papers a method is presented to estimate the
+ parameters of groundwater flow models under steady and nonsteady
+ state conditions. The parameters include values and directions of
+ principal hydraulic conductivities (or transmissivities) in anisotropic
+ media, specific storage (or storativity), interior and boundary recharge
+ or leakage rates, coefficients of head-dependent interior and boundary
+ sources, and boundary heads. In transient situations, the initial
+ head distribution can also be estimated if the system is originally
+ at a steady state. Paper 1 of the series discusses some of the advantage
+ in treating the inverse problem statistically and in regularizing
+ its solution by means of penalty criteria based on prior estimates
+ of the parameters. The inverse problem is posed in the framework
+ of maximum likelihood theory cast in a manner that accounts for prior
+ information about the parameters. Since not all the factors which
+ contribute to the prior errors can be quantified statistically at
+ the outset, the covariance matrices of these errors are expressed
+ in terms of several parameters which, if unknown, can be estimated
+ jointly with the hydraulic parameters by a stagewise optimization
+ process. When transient head data are separated by a fixed time interval,
+ the temporal structure of these data is approximated by a lag-one
+ autoregressive model with a correlation coefficient that can be treated
+ as another unknown parameter. Estimation errors are analyzed by examining
+ the lower bound of their covariance matrix in the eigenspace. Paper
+ 1 concludes by suggesting that certain model identification criteria
+ developed in the time series literature, all of which are based on
+ the maximum likelihood concept, might be useful for selecting the
+ best groundwater model (or the best method of parameterizing a particular
+ model) among a number of given alternatives.},
+ doi = {10.1029/WR022i002p00199},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{carrera1986b,
+ author = {Carrera, J. and Neuman, S.},
+ title = {Estimation of aquifer parameters under transient and steady state
+ conditions: 2. {U}niqueness, stability, and solution algorithms},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1986},
+ volume = {22},
+ pages = {211--227},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {Paper 2 of this three-part series starts with a discussion of the
+ question, Under what conditions is the aquifer inverse problem well-posed?
+ After defining the terms uniqueness, identifiability, and stability,
+ theoretical considerations and synthetic examples are used to demonstrate
+ that ill-posedness can be mitigated by including prior information
+ about the parameters in the estimation criterion to be minimized.
+ At the same time, the inclusion of such information is shown to be
+ insufficient to guarantee uniqueness and stability in all cases.
+ Several test problems in the recent literature, which have resulted
+ in pessimistic conclusions about the solvability of the aquifer inverse
+ problem, are shown to be ill-posed; a question is thus raised about
+ the validity of these conclusions in the general case. Various conjugate
+ gradient algorithms, coupled with the adjoint state finite element
+ method for computing the gradient of the estimation criterion, and
+ with Newton's method for determining the optimum step size downgradient,
+ are compared. A marked improvement in the rate at which these algorithms
+ converge is shown to be achieved by switching from one method to
+ another when the former slows down or fails to converge.},
+ doi = {10.1029/WR022i002p00211},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{carrera1986c,
+ author = {Carrera, J. and Neuman, S.},
+ title = {Estimation of aquifer parameters under transient and steady state
+ conditions: 3. {A}pplication to synthetic and field data},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1986},
+ volume = {22},
+ pages = {228--242},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {The last paper of this three-part series illustrates and explores
+ various features of the methodology we have proposed in papers 1
+ and 2 (J. Carrera and S. P. Neuman, this issue (a, b)) by applying
+ it to a synthetic test case and to a set of field data from the southwestern
+ United States. In addition to demonstrating the ability of our method
+ to estimate model parameters under a variety of conditions, the synthetic
+ example is used to investigate the relative worth of transient and
+ steady state data in terms of their ability to bring about an improvement
+ in the quality of the estimates. A similar investigation is performed
+ with regard to the role that prior information may play in reducing
+ the variance of the estimation errors. The paper demonstrates the
+ potential utility of our inverse methodology to the optimum design
+ of observation and measurement networks in space and time. Based
+ on a synthetic example, the paper shows that the model structure
+ identification criteria introduced in paper 1 (J. Carrera and S.
+ P. Neuman, this issue (a)) can be used successfully to choose the
+ best parameter zonation pattern among a number of given alternatives.
+ In particular, a criterion due to R. L. Kashyap (1982) is found to
+ be the most adequate for this purpose because it responds in the
+ most convincing manner to noise in the data. The field example illustrates
+ a case where one must account for temporal autocorrelation between
+ water level data at a given observation point. By validating the
+ model against data which have not been used for parameter estimation,
+ one finds that the validation results improve when the temporal error
+ structure of the water level data is represented by a lag-one autocorrelation
+ model. Both the synthetic and the field examples are used to obviate
+ the advantages of performing the analysis of the estimation errors
+ in the eigenspace instead of the original parameter space and to
+ relate the results of this analysis to the fundamental questions
+ of identifiability, uniqueness, and stability where appropriate.},
+ doi = {10.1029/WR022i002p00228},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{casella2001,
+ author = {Casella, G. and Lavine, M. and Robert, C.},
+ title = {Explaining the perfect sampler},
+ journal = {The American Statistician},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {55},
+ pages = {299--305},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {In 1996, Propp and Wilson introduced coupling from the past (CFTP),
+ an algorithm for generating a sample from the exact stationary distribution
+ of a Markov chain. In 1998, Fill proposed another so-called perfect
+ sampling algorithm. These algorithms have enormous potential in Markov
+ Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) problems because they eliminate the need
+ to monitor convergence and mixing of the chain. This article provides
+ a brief introduction to the algorithms, with an emphasis on understanding
+ rather than technical detail.},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19},
+ url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2685691}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{castelletti+al2010,
+ author = {Castelletti, A. and Pianosi, F. and {Soncini-Sessa}, R. and Antenucci,
+ J.},
+ title = {A multiobjective response surface approach for improved water quality
+ planning in lakes and reservoirs},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {46},
+ pages = {W06502},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {Improved data collection techniques as well as increasing computing
+ power are opening up new opportunities for the development of sophisticated
+ models that can accurately reproduce hydrodynamic and biochemical
+ conditions of water bodies. While increasing model complexity is
+ considered a virtue for scientific purposes, it is a definite disadvantage
+ for management (engineering) purposes, as it limits the model applicability
+ to what-if analysis over a few, a priori defined interventions. In
+ the recent past, this has become a significant limitation, particularly
+ considering recent advances in water quality rehabilitation technologies
+ (e.g., mixers or oxygenators) for which many design parameters have
+ to be decided. In this paper, a novel approach toward integrating
+ science-oriented and engineering-oriented models and improving water
+ quality planning is presented. It is based on the use of a few appropriately
+ designed simulations of a complex process-based model to iteratively
+ identify the multidimensional function (response surface) that maps
+ the rehabilitation interventions into the objective function. On
+ the basis of the response surface (RS), a greater number of interventions
+ can be quickly evaluated and the corresponding Pareto front can be
+ approximated. Interesting points on the front are then selected and
+ the corresponding interventions are simulated using the original
+ process-based model, thus obtaining new decision-objective samples
+ to refine the RS approximation. The approach is demonstrated in Googong
+ Reservoir (Australia), which is periodically affected by high concentrations
+ of manganese and cyanobacteria. Results indicate that significant
+ improvements could be observed by simply changing the location of
+ the two mixers installed in 2007. Furthermore, it also suggests the
+ best location for an additional pair of mixers. },
+ doi = {10.1029/2009WR008389},
+ tags = {Calibration, Disturbed Catchments, Water Quality}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{chang1990,
+ author = {Chang, T.},
+ title = {Effects of drought on streamflow characteristics},
+ journal = {Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering},
+ year = {1990},
+ volume = {116},
+ pages = {332-341},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {Droughts are defined using daily streamflow series and different truncation
+ levels including 30%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, and 90% of recorded daily
+ flows. Flow ratios, which are obtained by dividing subbasin flows
+ of different truncation levels by their corresponding outlet flows,
+ are calculated. It is found that the flow ratios of 17 selected subbasins
+ decrease significantly with increasing truncation levels while their
+ meanâ€flow ratios are approximately equal to their corresponding area
+ ratios. Therefore, the estimation of irrigation water using the drainage
+ area ratio, which has been practiced in the studied drainage basin,
+ is impractical in case of droughts. Furthermore, assuming the timeâ€dependent
+ Poissonian behavior of drought series, the drought intensity function
+ was developed to investigate drought severity in the basin. Based
+ on plots of drought intensity function, it is found that the drought
+ intensity has been increasing significantly for the basin investigated.},
+ doi = {10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9437(1990)116:3(332)},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.07.05}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{chaplot+al2005,
+ author = {Chaplot, V. and Saleh, A. and Jaynes, D.},
+ title = {Effect of the accuracy of spatial rainfall information on the modeling
+ of water, sediment, and {NO3-N} loads at the watershed level},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {312},
+ pages = {223--234},
+ number = {1-4},
+ abstract = {In a given watershed, the accuracy of models in predicting the hydrologic
+ and erosion behavior depends, to a large extent, on the quality of
+ the knowledge in respect of the spatial rainfall. The hydrologic
+ and erosion aspects of rainfall are often discussed without due regard
+ to any resulting improvement in watershed modeling. Thus, there is
+ a real need for streamlining raingauge networks in order to reflect
+ rainfall variability and its effect on the prediction of water, sediment
+ and nutrient fluxes at the watershed scale. In this study, such an
+ impact was analyzed using 9-year data collected at the outlets of
+ two watersheds encompassing a range of climates, surface areas and
+ environmental conditions. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)
+ was applied using as input data that collected from 1 to 15 precipitation
+ gauges per watershed. At both sites the highest densities of raingauges
+ were used for SWAT calibration. The differences between the highest
+ gauge concentration and lower concentrations used for the estimation
+ of sediment loads led to the conclusion that a high gauge concentration
+ is necessary. At both watersheds, predictions using rainfall records
+ from the national service stations produced inaccurate estimations.
+ This was probably because the gauge concentration was too sparse.
+ Finally, the general applicability of these results is proposed by
+ displaying the possibilities of extrapolation to other watersheds
+ or models},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.02.019},
+ keywords = {Hydrologic modeling, SWAT, Spatial input data, Rainfall},
+ tags = {SWAT, GIS related, Rainfall}
+}
+
+@BOOK{charbeneu2000,
+ title = {Groundwater hydraulics and pollutant transport},
+ publisher = {Prentice Hall, Inc.},
+ year = {2000},
+ author = {Charbeneau, R.},
+ pages = {593},
+ address = {New Jersey},
+ edition = {First},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.03.25}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{chatterjeesiarry2006,
+ author = {Chatterjee, A. and Siarry, P.},
+ title = {Nonlinear inertia weight variation for dynamic adpatation in particle
+ swarm optimization},
+ journal = {Computers \& Operations Research},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {33},
+ pages = {859--871},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {The particle swarm optimization (PSO) is a relatively new generation
+ of combinatorial metaheuristic algorithms which is based on a metaphor
+ of social interaction, namely bird flocking or fish schooling. Although
+ the algorithm has shown some important advances by providing high
+ speed of convergence in specific problems it has also been reported
+ that the algorithm has a tendency to get stuck in a near optimal
+ solution and may find it difficult to improve solution accuracy by
+ fine tuning. The present paper proposes a new variation of PSO model
+ where we propose a new method of introducing nonlinear variation
+ of inertia weight along with a particle's old velocity to improve
+ the speed of convergence as well as fine tune the search in the multidimensional
+ space. The paper also presents a new method of determining and setting
+ a complete set of free parameters for any given problem, saving the
+ user from a tedious trial and error based approach to determine them
+ for each specific problem. The performance of the proposed PSO model,
+ along with the fixed set of free parameters, is amply demonstrated
+ by applying it for several benchmark problems and comparing it with
+ several competing popular PSO and non-PSO combinatorial metaheuristic
+ algorithms.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.cor.2004.08.012},
+ keywords = {Combinatorial metaheuristics, Particle swarm, Nonlinear inertia weight,
+ Fixed parameter set},
+ tags = {Calibration, PSO}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{chau2007,
+ author = {Chau, K.},
+ title = {A split-step particle swarm optimization algorithm in river stage
+ forecasting},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {346},
+ pages = {131--135},
+ number = {3-4},
+ abstract = {An accurate forecast of river stage is very significant so that there
+ is ample time for the pertinent authority to issue a forewarning
+ of the impending flood and to implement early evacuation measures
+ as required. Since a variety of existing process-based hydrological
+ models involve exogenous input and different assumptions, artificial
+ neural networks have the potential to be a cost-effective solution.
+ In this paper, a split-step particle swarm optimization (PSO) model
+ is developed and applied to train multi-layer perceptrons for forecasting
+ real-time water levels at Fo Tan in Shing Mun River of Hong Kong
+ with different lead times on the basis of the upstream gauging station
+ (Tin Sum) or at Fo Tan. This paradigm is able to combine the advantages
+ of global search capability of PSO algorithm in the first step and
+ local fast convergence of Levenberg{--}Marquardt algorithm in the
+ second step. The results demonstrate that it is able to attain a
+ higher accuracy in a much shorter time when compared with the benchmarking
+ backward propagation algorithm as well as the standard PSO algorithm.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.09.004},
+ keywords = {River stage forecasting, Split-step, Particle swarm optimization,
+ Levenberg{--}Marquardt algorithm, Artificial neural networks},
+ tags = {PSO, Calibration}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{CHE2000,
+ author = {CHE},
+ title = {Los Aprovechamientos en la cuenca del Ebro: Afecci\'{o}n en el r\'{e}gimen
+ hydrol\'{o}gico fluvial -2000-PH-24I [The Exploitation in the Ebro
+ Basin: Alterations to the Hydrological Regime of the River - 2000-PH-24I]},
+ institution = {Confederaci\'{o}n Hidrogr\'{a}fica del Ebro},
+ year = {2000},
+ note = {Available on http://oph.chebro.es/DOCUMENTACION/Hidrologicos/RegimenHidrologico.htm.
+ [last accessed Oct-2011]},
+ tags = {CHE},
+ url = {http://oph.chebro.es/documentacion/TablaResumenCaudalEA/AlteracionesEA.htm}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{chen2008,
+ author = {Chen, {C.-T.} and Knutson, T.},
+ title = {On the verification and comparison of extreme rainfall indices from
+ climate models},
+ journal = {Journal of Climate},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {21},
+ pages = {1605--1621},
+ number = {7},
+ abstract = {The interpretation of model precipitation output (e.g., as a gridpoint
+ estimate versus as an areal mean) has a large impact on the evaluation
+ and comparison of simulated daily extreme rainfall indices from climate
+ models. It is first argued that interpretation as a gridpoint estimate
+ (i.e., corresponding to station data) is incorrect. The impacts of
+ this interpretation versus the areal mean interpretation in the context
+ of rainfall extremes are then illustrated. A high-resolution (0.25°
+ × 0.25° grid) daily observed precipitation dataset for the United
+ States [from Climate Prediction Center (CPC)] is used as idealized
+ perfect model gridded data. Both 30-yr return levels of daily precipitation
+ (P30) and a simple daily intensity index are substantially reduced
+ in these data when estimated at coarser resolution compared to the
+ estimation at finer resolution. The reduction of P30 averaged over
+ the conterminous United States is about 9%, 15%, 28%, 33%, and 43%
+ when the data were first interpolated to 0.5° × 0.5°, 1° × 1°, 2°
+ × 2°, 3° × 3°, and 4° × 4° grid boxes, respectively, before the calculation
+ of extremes. The differences resulting from the point estimate versus
+ areal mean interpretation are sensitive to both the data grid size
+ and to the particular extreme rainfall index analyzed. The differences
+ are not as sensitive to the magnitude and regional distribution of
+ the indices. Almost all Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
+ (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) models underestimate U.S. mean
+ P30 if it is compared directly with P30 estimated from the high-resolution
+ CPC daily rainfall observation. On the other hand, if CPC daily data
+ are first interpolated to various model resolutions before calculating
+ the P30 (a more correct procedure in our view), about half of the
+ models show good agreement with observations while most of the remaining
+ models tend to overestimate the mean intensity of heavy rainfall
+ events. A further implication of interpreting model precipitation
+ output as an areal mean is that use of either simple multimodel ensemble
+ averages of extreme rainfall or of intermodel variability measures
+ of extreme rainfall to assess the common characteristics and range
+ of uncertainties in current climate models is not appropriate if
+ simulated extreme rainfall is analyzed at a model’s native resolution.
+ Owing to the large sensitivity to the assumption used, the authors
+ recommend that for analysis of precipitation extremes, investigators
+ interpret model precipitation output as an area average as opposed
+ to a point estimate and then ensure that various analysis steps remain
+ consistent with that interpretation.},
+ doi = {10.1175/2007JCLI1494.1},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.02.02}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{chenchi2010,
+ author = {Chen, {T-Y} and Chi, {T-M}},
+ title = {On the improvements of the particle swarm optimization algorithm},
+ journal = {Advances in Engineering Software},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {41},
+ pages = {229--239},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {Since a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm uses a coordinated
+ search to find the optimum solution, it has a better chance of finding
+ the global solution. Despite this advantage, it is also observed
+ that some parameters used in PSO may affect the solution significantly.
+ Following this observation, this research tries to tune some of the
+ parameters and to add mechanisms to the PSO algorithm in order to
+ improve its robustness in finding the global solution. The main approaches
+ include using uniform design to ensure uniform distribution of the
+ initial particles in the design space, adding a mutation operation
+ to increase the diversity of particles, decreasing the maximum velocity
+ limitation and the velocity inertia automatically to balance the
+ local and the global search efforts, reducing velocity when constraints
+ are violated, and using Gaussian distribution based local searches
+ to escape local minima. Besides these efforts, an algorithm is also
+ developed to find multiple solutions in a single run. The results
+ show that the overall effect of these approaches can yield better
+ results for most test problems},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.advengsoft.2009.08.003},
+ keywords = {Particle swarm optimization, Uniform design, Local search, Multiple
+ solutions},
+ tags = {Calibration, PSO}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{cheng+al2002,
+ author = {Cheng, C. and Ou, C. and Chau, K.},
+ title = {Combining a fuzzy optimal model with a genetic algorithm to solve
+ multi-objective rainfall-runoff model calibration},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {268},
+ pages = {72--86},
+ number = {1-4},
+ abstract = {An automatic calibration methodology for the Xinanjiang model that
+ has been successfully and widely applied in China is presented. The
+ automatic calibration of the model consists of two parts: water balance
+ parameter and runoff routing parameter calibration. The former is
+ based on a simple genetic algorithm (GA). The latter is based on
+ a new method which combines a fuzzy optimal model (FOM) with a GA
+ for solving the multiple objective runoff routing parameters calibration
+ problem. Except for the specific fitness where the membership degree
+ of alternative obtained by FOM with limited alternatives and multi-objectives
+ is employed, the GA with multiple objectives in this paper is otherwise
+ the same as the simple GA. The parameter calibration includes optimization
+ of multiple objectives: (1) peak discharge, (2) peak time and (3)
+ total runoff volume. Thirty-four historical floods from 12 years
+ in the Shuangpai Reservoir are applied to calibrate the model parameters
+ whilst 11 floods in recent 2 years are utilized to verify these parameters.
+ Results of this study and application show that the hybrid methodology
+ of GAs and the FOM is not only capable of exploiting more the important
+ characteristics of floods but also efficient and robust.},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00122-1},
+ keywords = {Rainfall-runoff model, Calibration, Genetic algorithms, Fuzzy optimal
+ model, Multiple objectives},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{cheng+al2005,
+ author = {Cheng, {C-T} and Wu, {X-Y} and Chau, K.},
+ title = {Multiple criteria rainfall-runoff model calibration using a parallel
+ genetic algorithm in a cluster of computers},
+ journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {50},
+ pages = {1069--1087},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {Genetic algorithms are among of the global optimization schemes that
+ have gained popularity as a means to calibrate rainfall-runoff models.
+ However, a conceptual rainfall-runoff model usually includes 10 or
+ more parameters and these are interdependent, which makes the optimization
+ procedure very time-consuming. This may result in the premature termination
+ of the optimization process which will prejudice the quality of the
+ results. Therefore, the speed of optimization procedure is crucial
+ in order to improve the calibration quality and efficiency. A hybrid
+ method that combines a parallel genetic algorithm with a fuzzy optimal
+ model in a cluster of computers is proposed. The method uses the
+ fuzzy optimal model to evaluate multiple alternatives with multiple
+ criteria where chromosomes are the alternatives, whilst the criteria
+ are flood performance measures. In order to easily distinguish the
+ performance of different alternatives and to address the problem
+ of non-uniqueness of optimum, two fuzzy ratios are defined. The new
+ approach has been tested and compared with results obtained by using
+ a two-stage calibration procedure. The current single procedure produces
+ similar results, but is simpler and automatic. Comparison of results
+ between the serial and parallel genetic algorithms showed that the
+ current methodology can significantly reduce the overall optimization
+ time and simultaneously improve the solution quality. },
+ doi = {10.1623/hysj.2005.50.6.1069},
+ keywords = {calibration, cluster, fuzzy evaluation, multiple criteria, parallel
+ genetic algorithms, rainfall-runoff mode},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{chib1995,
+ author = {Chib, S. and Greenberg, E.},
+ title = {Understanding the {M}etropolis--{H}astings algorithm},
+ journal = {The American Statistician},
+ year = {1995},
+ volume = {49},
+ pages = {327--335},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {We provide a detailed, introductory exposition of the Metropolis-Hastings
+ algorithm, a powerful Markov chain method to simulate multivariate
+ distributions. A sim- ple, intuitive derivation of this method is
+ given along with guidance on implementation. Also discussed are two
+ applications of the algorithm, one for implementing acceptance-rejection
+ sampling when a blanketing func- tion is not available and the other
+ for implementing the al- gorithm with block-at-a-time scans. In the
+ latter situation, many different algorithms, including the Gibbs
+ sampler, are shown to be special cases of the Metropolis-Hastings
+ algorithm. The methods are illustrated with examples.},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.07.16},
+ url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2684568}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{chiewetal2009a,
+ author = {Chiew, F. and Teng, J. and Vaze, J. and Kirono, D.},
+ title = {Influence of global climate model selection on runoff impact assessment},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {379},
+ pages = {172--180},
+ number = {1--2},
+ abstract = {The future rainfall series used to drive hydrological models in many
+ climate change impact on runoff studies are informed by rainfall
+ simulated by global climate models (GCMs). This paper assesses how
+ the choice of GCMs based on their abilities to reproduce the observed
+ historical rainfall can affect runoff impact assessment. The 23 GCMs
+ used in IPCC 4AR are considered together with 1961–2000 observed
+ rainfall data over southeast Australia. The results indicate that
+ most of the GCMs can reproduce the observed spatial mean annual rainfall
+ pattern, but the errors in the mean seasonal and annual rainfall
+ amounts can be significant. The future mean annual rainfall projections
+ averaged across southeast Australia range from ?10% to +3% change
+ per degree global warming, which is amplified as ?23% to +4% change
+ in the future mean annual runoff. There is no clear difference in
+ the future rainfall projections between the better and poorer GCMs
+ based on their abilities to reproduce the observed historical rainfall,
+ therefore using only the better GCMs or weights to favour the better
+ GCMs give similar runoff impact assessment results as the use of
+ all the 23 GCMs. The range of future runoff in impact assessment
+ studies is probably best determined using future rainfall projections
+ from the majority of available archived GCM simulations.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.10.004},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.21}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{chiewal2009b,
+ author = {Chiew, F. and Teng, J. and Vaze, J. and Post, D. and Perraud, J.
+ and Kirono, D. and Viney, N.},
+ title = {Estimating climate change impact on runoff across southeast {A}ustralia:
+ {M}ethod, results, and implications of the modeling method},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {45},
+ pages = {W10414},
+ number = {10},
+ abstract = {This paper describes the modeling of climate change impact on runoff
+ across southeast Australia using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model
+ SIMHYD and presents the results and assesses the robustness of the
+ modeling approach. The future climate series is obtained by scaling
+ the historical series, informed by 15 global climate models (GCMs),
+ to reflect a 0.9°C increase in global average surface air temperature,
+ using a daily scaling method that considers changes in the future
+ mean seasonal rainfall and potential evapotranspiration as well as
+ in the daily rainfall distribution. The majority of the modeling
+ results indicate that there will be less runoff in southeast Australia
+ in the future. However, there is considerable uncertainty, with the
+ results ranging from a 17% decrease to a 7% increase in the mean
+ annual runoff averaged across the study area for the 0.9°C global
+ warming. The model assessments indicate that the modeling approach
+ is generally robust and can be used to estimate the climate impact
+ on runoff. The modeled mean annual runoff is generally within 10–20%
+ of the observed runoff. The modeling results for an independent test
+ period are only slightly poorer than the calibration period, indicating
+ that a satisfactorily calibrated rainfall-runoff model can be used
+ to estimate runoff for another climate period. The modeled impact
+ on various runoff characteristics as estimated by two rainfall-runoff
+ models investigated here differ by less than 10%, which is relatively
+ small compared to the range of modeled runoff results using rainfall
+ projections from different GCMs.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2008WR007338},
+ tags = {Impacts}
+}
+
+@BOOK{chilesdelfiner1999,
+ title = {Geostatistics: {M}odeling spatial uncertainty},
+ publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons},
+ year = {1999},
+ author = {Chil\`es, {J-P}. and Delfiner, P.},
+ pages = {720},
+ address = {New York},
+ edition = {First},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.23}
+}
+
+@BOOKLET{chipman2001,
+ title = {The practical implementation of {B}ayesian model selection},
+ author = {Chipman, H. and George, E. and McCulloch, R.},
+ howpublished = {Lectures Notes Monograph Series},
+ year = {2001},
+ editor = {P. Lahiri},
+ institution = {Institute of Mathematical Statistics},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23},
+ volume = {38}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{choibeven2007,
+ author = {Choi, {H-Y} and Beven, K.},
+ title = {Multi-period and multi-criteria model conditioning to reduce prediction
+ uncertainty in an application of {TOPMODEL} within the {GLUE} framework},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {332},
+ pages = {316--336},
+ number = {3-4},
+ abstract = {A new approach to multi-criteria model evaluation is presented. The
+ approach is consistent with the equifinality thesis and is developed
+ within the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework.
+ The predictions of Monte Carlo realisations of TOPMODEL parameter
+ sets are evaluated using a number of performance measures calibrated
+ for both global (annual) and seasonal (30 day) periods. The seasonal
+ periods were clustered using a Fuzzy C-means algorithm, into 15 types
+ representing different hydrological conditions. The model shows good
+ performance on a classical efficiency measure at the global level,
+ but no model realizations were found that were behavioural over all
+ multi-period clusters and all performance measures, raising questions
+ about what should be considered as an acceptable model performance.
+ Prediction uncertainties can still be calculated by allowing that
+ different clusters require different parameter sets. Variations in
+ parameter distributions between clusters, as well as examination
+ of where observed discharges depart from model prediction bounds,
+ give some indication of model structure deficiencies.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.07.012},
+ keywords = {TOPMODEL, GLUE, Seasonality, Multi-criteria evaluation, Fuzzy classification},
+ tags = {Calibration, Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{christensen+al2008,
+ author = {Christensen, J. and Boberg, F. and Christensen, O. and {Lucas-Picher},
+ P.},
+ title = {On the need for bias correction of regional climate change projections
+ of temperature and precipitation},
+ journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {35},
+ pages = {1--6},
+ number = {L20709},
+ abstract = {Within the framework of the European project ENSEMBLES (ensembles-based
+ predictions of climate changes and their impacts) we explore the
+ systematic bias in simulated monthly mean temperature and precipitation
+ for an ensemble of thirteen regional climate models (RCMs). The models
+ have been forced with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather
+ Forecasting Reanalysis (ERA40) and are compared to a new high resolution
+ gridded observational data set. We find that each model has a distinct
+ systematic bias relating both temperature and precipitation bias
+ to the observed mean. By excluding the twenty-five percent warmest
+ and wettest months, respectively, we find that a derived second-order
+ fit from the remaining months can be used to estimate the values
+ of the excluded months. We demonstrate that the common assumption
+ of bias cancellation (invariance) in climate change projections can
+ have significant limitations when temperatures in the warmest months
+ exceed 4–6 °C above present day conditions.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2008GL035694},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.21}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{christensen+al2007a,
+ author = {Christensen, J. and Carter, T. and Rummukainen, M. and Amanatidis,
+ G.},
+ title = {Evaluating the performance and utility of climate models: {T}he {PRUDENCE}
+ project},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {81},
+ pages = {1--6},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {This special issue of Climatic Change contains a series of research
+ articles documenting co-ordinated work carried out within a 3-year
+ European Union project ‘Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties
+ for Defining European Climate change risks and Effects’ (PRUDENCE).
+ The main objective of the PRUDENCE project was to provide high resolution
+ climate change scenarios for Europe at the end of the twenty-first
+ century by means of dynamical downscaling (regional climate modelling)
+ of global climate simulations. The first part of the issue comprises
+ seven overarching PRUDENCE papers on: (1) the design of the model
+ simulations and analyses of climate model performance, (2 and 3)
+ evaluation and intercomparison of simulated climate changes, (4 and
+ 5) specialised analyses of impacts on water resources and on other
+ sectors including agriculture, ecosystems, energy, and transport,
+ (6) investigation of extreme weather events and (7) implications
+ of the results for policy. A paper summarising the related MICE (Modelling
+ the Impact of Climate Extremes) project is also included. The second
+ part of the issue contains 12 articles that focus in more detail
+ on some of the themes summarised in the overarching papers. The PRUDENCE
+ results represent the first comprehensive, continental-scale intercomparison
+ and evaluation of high resolution climate models and their applications,
+ bringing together climate modelling, impact research and social sciences
+ expertise on climate change.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10584-006-9211-6},
+ keywords = {PRUDENCE},
+ tags = {Climate Models, RCMs}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{christensen+2007,
+ author = {Christensen, J. and Christensen, O.},
+ title = {A summary of the {PRUDENCE} model projections of changes in {E}uropean
+ climate by the end of this century},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {81},
+ pages = {7--30},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {An overview of the PRUDENCE fine resolution climate model experiments
+ for Europe is presented in terms of their climate change signals,
+ in particular 2-meter temperature and precipitation. A comparison
+ is made with regard to the seasonal variation in climate change response
+ of the different models participating in the project. In particular,
+ it will be possible to check how representative a particular PRUDENCE
+ regional experiment is of the overall set in terms of seasonal values
+ of temperature and precipitation. This is of relevance for such further
+ studies and impact models that for practical reasons cannot use all
+ the PRUDENCE regional experiments. This paper also provides some
+ guidelines for how to select subsets of the PRUDENCE regional experiments
+ according to such main sources of uncertainty in regional climate
+ simulations as the choice of the emission scenario and of the driving
+ global climate model.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10584-006-9210-7},
+ keywords = {BALTIC SEA, SURFACE TEMPERATURES, SIMULATIONS, UNCERTAINTY, VARIABILITY,
+ ICE},
+ tags = {RCMs}
+}
+
+@INCOLLECTION{christensen+al2007b,
+ author = {Christensen, J. and Hewitson, B. and Busuioc, A. and Chen, A. and
+ Gao, X. and Held, I. and Jones, R. and Kolli, R. and Kwon, {W.-T}.
+ and Laprise, R. and {Maga{\~n}a Rueda}, V. and Mearns, L. and Men\'endez,
+ C. and R\"ais\"anen, J. and Rinke, A. and Sarr, A. and Whetto, P.},
+ title = {Regional Climate Projections},
+ booktitle = {Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of
+ Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
+ Panel on Climate Change},
+ publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
+ year = {2007},
+ editor = {S. Solomon and D. Qin and M. Manning and Z. Chen and M. Marquis and
+ K. B. Averyt and M. Tignor and H. L. Miller},
+ address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
+ tags = {RCMs}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{christensen+al2010,
+ author = {Christensen, J. and Kjellstr\"om, E. and Giogi, F. and Lenderink,
+ G. and Rummukainen, M.},
+ title = {Weight assignment in regional climate models},
+ journal = {Climate Research},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {44},
+ pages = {179-197},
+ number = {2--3},
+ abstract = {An important new development within the European ENSEMBLES project
+ has been to explore performance-based weighting of regional climate
+ models (RCMs). Until now, although no weighting has been applied
+ in multi-RCM analyses, one could claim that an assumption of ‘equal
+ weight’ was implicitly adopted. At the same time, different RCMs
+ generate different results, e.g. for various types of extremes, and
+ these results need to be combined when using the full RCM ensemble.
+ The process of constructing, assigning and combining metrics of model
+ performance is not straightforward. Rather, there is a considerable
+ degree of subjectivity both in the choice of metrics and on how these
+ may be combined into weights. We explore the applicability of combining
+ a set of 6 specifically designed RCM performance metrics to produce
+ one aggregated model weight with the purpose of combining climate
+ change information from the range of RCMs used within ENSEMBLES.
+ These metrics capture aspects of model performance in reproducing
+ large-scale circulation patterns, meso-scale signals, daily temperature
+ and precipitation distributions and extremes, trends and the annual
+ cycle. We examine different aggregation procedures that generate
+ different inter-model spreads of weights. The use of model weights
+ is sensitive to the aggregation procedure and shows different sensitivities
+ to the selected metrics. Generally, however, we do not find compelling
+ evidence of an improved description of mean climate states using
+ performance-based weights in comparison to the use of equal weights.
+ We suggest that model weighting adds another level of uncertainty
+ to the generation of ensemble-based climate projections, which should
+ be suitably explored, although our results indicate that this uncertainty
+ remains relatively small for the weighting procedures examined.},
+ doi = {10.3354/cr00916},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.07.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{christensen2007,
+ author = {Christensen, N. and Lettenmaier, D.},
+ title = {A multimodel ensemble approach to assessment of climate change impacts
+ on the hydrology and water resources of th e{C}olorado river basin},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {11},
+ pages = {1417--1434},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {Implications of 21st century climate change on the hydrology and water
+ resources of the Colorado River Basin were assessed using a multimodel
+ ensemble approach in which downscaled and bias corrected output from
+ 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) was used to drive macroscale
+ hydrology and water resources models. Downscaled climate scenarios
+ (ensembles) were used as forcings to the Variable Infiltration Capacity
+ (VIC) macroscale hydrology model, which in turn forced the Colorado
+ River Reservoir Model (CRMM). Ensembles of downscaled precipitation
+ and temperature, and derived streamflows and reservoir system performance
+ were assessed through comparison with current climate simulations
+ for the 1950–1999 historical period. For each of the 11 GCMs, two
+ emissions scenarios (IPCC SRES A2 and B1, corresponding to relatively
+ unconstrained growth in emissions, and elimination of global emissions
+ increases by 2100) were represented. Results for the A2 and B1 climate
+ scenarios were divided into three periods: 2010–2039, 2040–2069,
+ and 2070–2099. The mean temperature change averaged over the 11 ensembles
+ for the Colorado basin for the A2 emission scenario ranged from 1.2
+ to 4.4°C for periods 1–3, and for the B1 scenario from 1.3 to 2.7°C.
+ Precipitation changes were modest, with ensemble mean changes ranging
+ from ?1 to ?2% for the A2 scenario, and from +1 to ?1% for the B1
+ scenario. An analysis of seasonal precipitation patterns showed that
+ most GCMs had modest reductions in summer precipitation and increases
+ in winter precipitation. Derived April 1 snow water equivalent declined
+ for all ensemble members and time periods, with maximum (ensemble
+ mean) reductions of 38% for the A2 scenario in period 3. Runoff changes
+ were mostly the result of a dominance of increased evapotranspiration
+ over the seasonal precipitation shifts, with ensemble mean runoff
+ changes of ?1, ?6, and ?11% for the A2 ensembles, and 0, ?7, and
+ ?8% for the B1 ensembles. These hydrological changes were reflected
+ in reservoir system performance. Average total basin reservoir storage
+ and average hydropower production generally declined, however there
+ was a large range across the ensembles. Releases from Glen Canyon
+ Dam to the Lower Basin were reduced for all periods and both emissions
+ scenarios in the ensemble mean. The fraction of years in which shortages
+ occurred increased by approximately 20% by period 3 for both emissions
+ scenarios.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-11-1417-2007},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.21}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{christensen+al2004,
+ author = {Christensen, N. and Wood, A. and Voisin, N. and Lettenmaier, D. and
+ Palmer, R.},
+ title = {The Effects of Climate Change on the Hydrology and Water Resources
+ of the {C}olorado {R}iver Basin},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {62},
+ pages = {337--363},
+ number = {1--3},
+ abstract = {The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water
+ resources of the Colorado River basin are assessed by comparing simulated
+ hydrologic and water resources scenarios derived from downscaled
+ climate simulations of the U.S. Department of Energy/National Center
+ for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (PCM) to scenarios
+ driven by observed historical (1950--1999) climate. PCM climate scenarios
+ include an ensemble of three 105-year future climate simulations
+ based on projected `business-as-usual'(BAU) greenhouse gas emissions
+ and a control climate simulation based on static 1995 greenhouse
+ gas concentrations. Downscaled transient temperature and precipitation
+ sequences were extracted from PCM simulations, and were used to drive
+ the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model
+ to produce corresponding streamflow sequences. Results for the BAU
+ scenarios were summarized into Periods 1, 2, and 3 (2010--2039,2040--2069,
+ 2070--2098). Average annual temperature changes for the Colorado
+ Riverbasin were 0.5 °C warmer for control climate, and 1.0, 1.7,
+ and 2.4 °C warmer for Periods 1--3, respectively, relative to the
+ historicalclimate. Basin-average annual precipitation for the control
+ climate was slightly(1%) less than for observed historical climate,
+ and 3, 6, and 3%less for future Periods 1--3, respectively. Annual
+ runoff in the controlrun was about 10% lower than for simulated historical
+ conditions, and 14, 18, and 17% less for Periods 1--3, respectively.
+ Analysis of watermanagement operations using a water management model
+ driven by simulated streamflows showed that streamflows associated
+ with control and future BAU climates would significantly degrade
+ the performance of the water resourcessystem relative to historical
+ conditions, with average total basin storage reduced by 7% for the
+ control climate and 36, 32 and 40% for Periods 1--3, respectively.
+ Releases from Glen Canyon Dam to the LowerBasin (mandated by the
+ Colorado River Compact) were met in 80% of years for the control
+ climate simulation (versus 92% in the historical climate simulation),
+ and only in 59--75% of years for the future climate runs. Annual
+ hydropower output was also significantly reduced for the control
+ and future climate simulations. The high sensitivity of reservoir
+ system performance for future climate is a reflection of the fragile
+ equilibrium that now exists in operation of the system, with system
+ demands only slightly less than long-term mean annual inflow},
+ doi = {10.1023/B:CLIM.0000013684.13621.1f},
+ tags = {Climate Change}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{hirham5,
+ author = {Christensen, O. and Drews, M. and Christensen, J. and Dethloff, K.
+ and Ketelsen, K. and Hebestadt, I. and Rinke, A.},
+ title = {{The HIRHAM Regional Climate Model Version 5 (beta)}},
+ institution = {Danish Meteorological Institute},
+ year = {2007},
+ number = {06-17},
+ abstract = {This report describes version 5(?) of the HIRHAM regional climate
+ model. The report is in two parts. The first part discusses the structure
+ and main features of the upgraded version of the model system, while
+ the second part offers a short tutorial on how to install and run
+ the code, e.g. on NEC SX6.},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.08.09}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{christensen2003,
+ author = {Christensen, S.},
+ title = {A synthetic groundwater modelling study of the accuracy of {GLUE}
+ uncertainty intervals},
+ journal = {Nordic Hydrology},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {35},
+ pages = {45--59},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {Synthetic groundwater flow models with one unknown parameter, the
+ average log transmissivity of the flow domain, and with Gaussian
+ log-transmissivity error structure were used to study the nature
+ and the accuracy of Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation
+ (GLUE) intervals. The uniform prior distribution of log10 transmissivities
+ was sampled uniformly and 1000 values per log10-transmissivity cycle
+ were required to produce unbiased GLUE results. Because the errors
+ in hydraulic head resulting from the log-transmissivity errors are
+ known to be Gaussian for a linear model for heads, the Gaussian likelihood
+ function was used as the GLUE goodness-of-fit function in most cases
+ studied. The GLUE interval computed for the hydraulic head at different
+ locations within the domain has the characteristics of a confidence
+ interval for the hydraulic heads computed using the spatial average
+ log transmissivity. The GLUE interval does not have the characteristics
+ of a prediction interval, which is a probability interval for an
+ uncertain observation of some variable such as the hydraulic head.
+ The goodness-of-fit function can be corrected so that the resulting
+ GLUE interval has the characteristics of a prediction interval. However,
+ neither the original nor the corrected GLUE interval account for
+ the uncertainty caused by small-scale model errors, which is always
+ present in practical groundwater flow modelling. It is therefore
+ concluded that one should be careful with using the GLUE interval
+ to evaluate the validity of a model's structure. The structure may
+ be valid even though observations fall significantly outside the
+ GLUE interval if the observations are uncertain and the goodness-of-fit
+ function is not corrected to account for this, or if small-scale
+ model error is significant. If small-scale model error does not significantly
+ bias model predictions, the predictions will be useful although uncertain.
+ Small-scale model error did not bias the predictions in the examples
+ studied here except near a strong sink. Changing the goodness-of-fit
+ function from the Gaussian likelihood function to a similar but different
+ function made the resulting GLUE intervals very inaccurate. Changing
+ to a third function based on a fitted model rejection value produced
+ results that were somewhat better than those obtained with the Gaussian
+ likelihood function. However, the results were sensitive to the model
+ rejection value, which in the ideal case should be adjusted for each
+ predicted variable individually. Thus, the third function is not
+ attractive for practical applications with the GLUE methodology.},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23},
+ url = {http://www.iwaponline.com/nh/035/nh0350045.htm}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{christensen1999,
+ author = {Christensen, S. and Cooley, R.},
+ title = {Evaluation of prediction intervals for expressing uncertainties in
+ groundwater flow model predictions},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1999},
+ volume = {35},
+ pages = {2627--2639},
+ number = {9},
+ abstract = {We tested the accuracy of 95% individual prediction intervals for
+ hydraulic heads, streamflow gains, and effective transmissivities
+ computed by groundwater models of two Danish aquifers. To compute
+ the intervals, we assumed that each predicted value can be written
+ as the sum of a computed dependent variable and a random error. Testing
+ was accomplished by using a cross-validation method and by using
+ new field measurements of hydraulic heads and transmissivities that
+ were not used to develop or calibrate the models. The tested null
+ hypotheses are that the coverage probability of the prediction intervals
+ is not significantly smaller than the assumed probability (95%) and
+ that each tail probability is not significantly different from the
+ assumed probability (2.5%). In all cases tested, these hypotheses
+ were accepted at the 5% level of significance. We therefore conclude
+ that for the groundwater models of two real aquifers the individual
+ prediction intervals appear to be accurate.},
+ doi = {10.1029/1999WR900163},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{christiaens2002a,
+ author = {Christiaens, K. and Feyen, J.},
+ title = {Soil hydraulic parameter and output uncertainty of the distributed
+ hydrological {MIKE SHE} model using the {GLUE} framework},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {16},
+ pages = {373--391},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {Both calibration and uncertainty assessment are mandatory steps in
+ today's modelling process. The former considers both the inputs (input
+ variables and parameters) as well as model results. An exploratory
+ investigation of the applicable parameter space results in a wide
+ spectrum of values for a specific model output. By retaining only
+ those model realizations that mimic reality in a sufficient way,
+ inputs and associated response can be constrained, thereby quantifying
+ the uncertainty involved. The generalized likelihood uncertainty
+ estimation (GLUE) framework provides a structured methodology for
+ this purpose. The study presented focuses on the applicability of
+ the GLUE framework within the context of the distributed hydrological
+ model MIKE SHE. Even though all significant processes involved are
+ incorporated within the model, the problems of calibration and uncertainty
+ assessment cannot be avoided. This has resulted in a quest for well-delineated
+ effective parameters crucial for sound mechanistic model application.
+ Being a complex model, the number of possible realizations using
+ MIKE SHE is fairly small due to computing time, and an in-depth exploratory
+ approach is impossible. On the other hand, several output variables
+ are available aside from the hydrological river response, like water
+ content in the soil profile or ground water level, which can be used
+ for retaining realistic parameter sets. This study presents some
+ preliminary results on the applicability of the GLUE-MIKE SHE framework
+ and associated constrained preliminary parameter and output uncertainty
+ values. Focus was given to the influence of soil hydraulic parameters
+ on the hydrological behaviour of a small study basin. The soil hydraulic
+ parameters were predicted using various pedo-transfer-function approaches
+ and moisture retention measurements in the laboratory, and these
+ distributions were then confronted with ranges of the constrained
+ effective parameters. For the latter, the restrictions that were
+ imposed based on behavioural acceptance were substantial. All the
+ traditional methods show significant uncertainty, due to heterogeneity
+ and model error, which cannot be disregarded. The first results suggest
+ a reasonable match among effective parameters and laboratory measurements.
+ The use of pedo-transfer-function distributions as effective parameters,
+ however, may provide unacceptable results, even with liberal criteria.},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.335},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{christiaens2002b,
+ author = {Christiaens, K. and Feyen, J.},
+ title = {Use of sensitivity and uncertainty measures in distributed hydrological
+ modeling with an application to the {MIKE SHE} model},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {38},
+ pages = {1169--1184},
+ number = {9},
+ abstract = {A methodology to qualify and quantify uncertainty and sensitivity
+ measures, mathematically related to a representative metamodel and
+ correlation coefficients, using the Latin hypercube approach, is
+ evaluated in the context of the spatially distributed hydrological
+ model MIKE SHE. The characteristics of various outputs, such as cumulative
+ catchment discharge, average soil water content, and groundwater
+ elevation, are examined at different time and space scales. The soil
+ hydraulic parameters make up the varying input. The input uncertainties
+ and the corresponding Latin hypercube parameter perturbations are
+ based on U.S. Department of Agriculture texture figures. Results
+ indicate important differences between the measures, even in ranking,
+ making combined interpretation of the measures necessary. The real-world
+ problem of correlation among parameters adds significant complexity
+ to the assessment of uncertainty and sensitivity and cannot be disregarded
+ without caution. The presented methodology, though still CPU intensive,
+ allows the hydrological modeler to cope with this complexity.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2001WR000478},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{christiaensfeyen2002,
+ author = {Christiaens, K. and Feyen, J.},
+ title = {{Constraining soil hydraulic parameter and output uncertainty of
+ the distributed hydrological MIKE SHE model using the GLUE framework}},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {16},
+ pages = {373--391},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {Both calibration and uncertainty assessment are mandatory steps in
+ today's modelling process. The former considers both the inputs (input
+ variables and parameters) as well as model results. An exploratory
+ investigation of the applicable parameter space results in a wide
+ spectrum of values for a specific model output. By retaining only
+ those model realizations that mimic reality in a sufficient way,
+ inputs and associated response can be constrained, thereby quantifying
+ the uncertainty involved. The generalized likelihood uncertainty
+ estimation (GLUE) framework provides a structured methodology for
+ this purpose. The study presented focuses on the applicability of
+ the GLUE framework within the context of the distributed hydrological
+ model MIKE SHE. Even though all significant processes involved are
+ incorporated within the model, the problems of calibration and uncertainty
+ assessment cannot be avoided. This has resulted in a quest for well-delineated
+ effective parameters crucial for sound mechanistic model application.
+ Being a complex model, the number of possible realizations using
+ MIKE SHE is fairly small due to computing time, and an in-depth exploratory
+ approach is impossible. On the other hand, several output variables
+ are available aside from the hydrological river response, like water
+ content in the soil profile or ground water level, which can be used
+ for retaining realistic parameter sets. This study presents some
+ preliminary results on the applicability of the GLUE-MIKE SHE framework
+ and associated constrained preliminary parameter and output uncertainty
+ values. Focus was given to the influence of soil hydraulic parameters
+ on the hydrological behaviour of a small study basin. The soil hydraulic
+ parameters were predicted using various pedo-transfer-function approaches
+ and moisture retention measurements in the laboratory, and these
+ distributions were then confronted with ranges of the constrained
+ effective parameters. For the latter, the restrictions that were
+ imposed based on behavioural acceptance were substantial. All the
+ traditional methods show significant uncertainty, due to heterogeneity
+ and model error, which cannot be disregarded. The first results suggest
+ a reasonable match among effective parameters and laboratory measurements.
+ The use of pedo-transfer-function distributions as effective parameters,
+ however, may provide unacceptable results, even with liberal criteria},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.335},
+ keywords = {GLUE, LHS},
+ tags = {Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@INCOLLECTION{clerc2010,
+ author = {Clerc, Maurice},
+ title = {{From theory to practice in Particle Swarm Optimization}},
+ booktitle = {Handbook of Swarm Intelligence},
+ publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
+ year = {2010},
+ editor = {Panigrahi, Bijaya Ketan and Shi, Yuhui and Lim, Meng-Hiot and Hiot,
+ Lim Meng and Ong, Yew Soon},
+ volume = {8},
+ series = {Adaptation, Learning, and Optimization},
+ pages = {3--36},
+ abstract = {The purpose of this chapter is to draw attention to two points that
+ are not always well understood, namely, a) the “balance†between
+ exploitation and exploration may be not what we intuitively think,
+ and b) a mean best result may be meaningless. The second point is
+ obviously quite important when two algorithms are compared. These
+ are discussed in the appendix. We believe that these points would
+ be useful to researchers in the field for analysis and comparison
+ of algorithms in a better and rigorous way, and help them design
+ new powerful tools.},
+ doi = {10.1007/978-3-642-17390-5_1},
+ isbn = {978-3-642-17390-5},
+ tags = {PSO},
+ url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-17390-51}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{clerc2012,
+ author = {Clerc, M.},
+ title = {{Standard Particle Swarm Optimisation}},
+ institution = {Particle Swarm Central},
+ year = {2012},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.03.12},
+ url = {http://clerc.maurice.free.fr/pso/SPSO_descriptions.pdf}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{clerc2009,
+ author = {Clerc, M.},
+ title = {{A method to improve Standard PSO}},
+ institution = {Particle Swarm Central},
+ year = {2009},
+ number = {MC2009-03-13},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.03.12},
+ url = {http://clerc.maurice.free.fr/pso/Design_efficient_PSO.pdf}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{clerc2007,
+ author = {Clerc, M.},
+ title = {Back to random topology},
+ institution = {Particle Swarm Central},
+ year = {2007},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.11.23},
+ url = {http://clerc.maurice.free.fr/pso/random_topology.pdf}
+}
+
+@BOOK{clerc2006,
+ title = {{Particle Swarm Optimization}},
+ publisher = {ISTE (International Scientific and Technical Encyclopedia)},
+ year = {2006},
+ author = {Clerc, Maurice},
+ abstract = {This is the first book devoted entirely to Particle Swarm Optimization
+ (PSO), which is a non-specific algorithm, similar to evolutionary
+ algorithms, such as taboo search and ant colonies. Since its original
+ development in 1995, PSO has mainly been applied to continuous-discrete
+ heterogeneous strongly non-linear numerical optimization and it is
+ thus used almost everywhere in the world. Its convergence rate also
+ makes it a preferred tool in dynamic optimization. Particle Swarm
+ Optimization explains the basic principles of the subject, particularly
+ the concepts of particles, information link, memory and cooperation.
+ Starting from a simple but efficient parametric version coded in
+ a few lines, it shows how this can be gradually enhanced to lead
+ to a fully adaptive version. All source programs are either included
+ in the book or are downloadable for free.},
+ isbn = {978-1-905209-04-0},
+ owner = {morpionz},
+ tags = {PSO},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.20},
+ url = {http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-1905209045.html}
+}
+
+@ELECTRONIC{SPSO2011,
+ author = {Clerc, M. and Auger, A. and Blackwell, T. and Bratton, D. and Croussette,
+ S. and Eberhart, R. and Hansen, N. and Keko, H. Kennedy, J. and Krohling,
+ R. and Langdon, W. and Li, W. and Miranda, V. and Poli, R. and Serra,
+ P. and Stickel, M.},
+ title = {{Standard PSO 2011 - SPSO2011}},
+ url = {http://www.particleswarm.info/Programs.html},
+ year = {2011},
+ comment = {Last time accessed on: 27-09-2012},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.11.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{clerckennedy2002,
+ author = {Clerc, M. and Kennedy, J.},
+ title = {The particle swarm - Explosion, stability, and convergence in a multidimensional
+ complex space},
+ journal = {IEEE Transactions on Evolutionary Computation},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {6},
+ pages = {58--73},
+ abstract = {The particle swarm is an algorithm for finding optimal regions of
+ complex search spaces through the interaction of individuals in a
+ population of particles. Even though the algorithm, which is based
+ on a metaphor of social interaction, has been shown to perform well,
+ researchers have not adequately explained how it works. Further,
+ traditional versions of the algorithm have had some undesirable dynamical
+ properties, notably the particles' velocities needed to be limited
+ in order to control their trajectories. The present paper analyzes
+ a particle's trajectory as it moves in discrete time (the algebraic
+ view), then progresses to the view of it in continuous time (the
+ analytical view). A five-dimensional depiction is developed, which
+ describes the system completely. These analyses lead to a generalized
+ model of the algorithm, containing a set of coefficients to control
+ the system's convergence tendencies. Some results of the particle
+ swarm optimizer, implementing modifications derived from the analysis,
+ suggest methods for altering the original algorithm in ways that
+ eliminate problems and increase the ability of the particle swarm
+ to find optima of some well-studied test functions.},
+ doi = {10.1109/4235.985692},
+ keywords = {convergence, evolutionary computation, optimization, particle swarm,
+ stability},
+ tags = {Calibration, PSO}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{clyde1999,
+ author = {Clyde, M.},
+ title = {Comment on ``{B}ayesian model averaging: {A} tutorial''},
+ journal = {Statistical Science},
+ year = {1999},
+ volume = {14},
+ pages = {401--404},
+ number = {4},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.12.04},
+ url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2676804}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{clyde2004,
+ author = {Clyde, M. and George, E.},
+ title = {Model uncertainty},
+ journal = {Statistical Science},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {19},
+ pages = {81--94},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {The evolution of Bayesian approaches for model uncertainty over the
+ past decade has been remarkable. Catalyzed by advances in methods
+ and technology for posterior computation, the scope of these methods
+ has widened substantially. Major thrusts of these developments have
+ included new methods for semiautomatic prior specification and posterior
+ exploration. To illustrate key aspects of this evolution, the highlights
+ of some of these developments are described.},
+ doi = {10.1214/088342304000000035},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23},
+ url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/4144374}
+}
+
+@BOOK{coles2001,
+ title = {An introduction to statistical modeling of extreme values},
+ publisher = {Springer},
+ year = {2001},
+ author = {Coles, S.},
+ pages = {224},
+ series = {Springer series in statistics},
+ address = {London},
+ edition = {First},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.08.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{collins2007,
+ author = {Collins, M.},
+ title = {Ensembles and probabilities: {A} new era in the prediction of climate
+ change},
+ journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical, Physical
+ \& Engineering Sciences},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {365},
+ pages = {1957--1970},
+ number = {1857},
+ abstract = {Predictions of future climate are of central importance in determining
+ actions to adapt to the impacts of climate change and in formulating
+ targets to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. In the absence of
+ analogues of the future, physically based numerical climate models
+ must be used to make predictions. New approaches are under development
+ to deal with a number of sources of uncertainty that arise in the
+ prediction process. This paper introduces some of the concepts and
+ issues in these new approaches, which are discussed in more detail
+ in the papers contained in this issue.},
+ doi = {10.1098/rsta.2007.2068},
+ keywords = {climate change, prediction, uncertainty, probability},
+ tags = {Climate Change, Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{collins+al2006,
+ author = {Collins, M. and Booth, B. and Harris, G. and Murphy, J. and Sexton,
+ D. and Webb, M.},
+ title = {Towards quantifying uncertainty in transient climate change},
+ journal = {Climate Dynamics},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {27},
+ pages = {127--147},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {Ensembles of coupled atmosphere–ocean global circulation model simulations
+ are required to make probabilistic predictions of future climate
+ change. Perturbed physics ensembles provide a new approach in which
+ modelling uncertainties are sampled systematically by perturbing
+ uncertain parameters. The aim is to provide a basis for probabilistic
+ predictions in which the impact of prior assumptions and observational
+ constraints can be clearly distinguished. Here we report on the first
+ perturbed physics coupled atmosphere–ocean model ensemble in which
+ poorly constrained atmosphere, land and sea-ice component parameters
+ are varied in the third version of the Hadley Centre model (the variation
+ of ocean parameters will be the subject of future study). Flux adjustments
+ are employed, both to reduce regional sea surface temperature (SST)
+ and salinity biases and also to admit the use of combinations of
+ model parameter values which give non-zero values for the global
+ radiation balance. This improves the extent to which the ensemble
+ provides a credible basis for the quantification of uncertainties
+ in climate change, especially at a regional level. However, this
+ particular implementation of flux-adjustments leads to a weakening
+ of the Atlantic overturning circulation, resulting in the development
+ of biases in SST and sea ice in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans.
+ Nevertheless, model versions are produced which are of similar quality
+ to the unperturbed and un-flux-adjusted version. The ensemble is
+ used to simulate pre-industrial conditions and a simple scenario
+ of a 1% per year compounded increase in CO2. The range of transient
+ climate response (the 20Â year averaged global warming at the time
+ of CO2 doubling) is 1.5–2.6°C, similar to that found in multi-model
+ studies. Measures of global and large scale climate change from the
+ coupled models show simple relationships with associated measures
+ computed from atmosphere-mixed-layer-ocean climate change experiments,
+ suggesting that recent advances in computing the probability density
+ function of climate change under equilibrium conditions using the
+ perturbed physics approach may be extended to the transient case.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00382-006-0121-0},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.04.29}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{confesorwhittaker2007,
+ author = {Confesor, R. and Whittaker, G.},
+ title = {Automatic calibration of hydrologic models with multi-objective evolutionary
+ algorithm and {P}areto optimization},
+ journal = {Journal of the American Water Resources Association},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {43},
+ pages = {981--989},
+ abstract = {In optimization problems with at least two conflicting objectives,
+ a set of solutions rather than a unique one exists because of the
+ trade-offs between these objectives. A Pareto optimal solution set
+ is achieved when a solution cannot be improved upon without degrading
+ at least one of its objective criteria. This study investigated the
+ application of multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA) and
+ Pareto ordering optimization in the automatic calibration of the
+ Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a process-based, semi-distributed,
+ and continuous hydrologic model. The nondominated sorting genetic
+ algorithm II (NSGA-II), a fast and recent MOEA, and SWAT were called
+ in FORTRAN from a parallel genetic algorithm library (PGAPACK) to
+ determine the Pareto optimal set. A total of 139 parameter values
+ were simultaneously and explicitly optimized in the calibration.
+ The calibrated SWAT model simulated well the daily streamflow of
+ the Calapooia watershed for a 3-year period. The daily Nash-Sutcliffe
+ coefficients were 0.86 at calibration and 0.81 at validation. Automatic
+ multi-objective calibration of a complex watershed model was successfully
+ implemented using Pareto ordering and MOEA. Future studies include
+ simultaneous automatic calibration of water quality and quantity
+ parameters and the application of Pareto optimization in decision
+ and policy-making problems related to conflicting objectives of economics
+ and environmental quality.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1752-1688.2007.00080.x},
+ keywords = {simulation, optimization, nonpoint source pollution, Pareto, multi-objective
+ evolutionary algorithm, automatic calibration, GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION,
+ SWAT},
+ tags = {Calibration, SWAT}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{congdon2005,
+ author = {Congdon, P.},
+ title = {Bayesian predictive model comparison via parallel sampling},
+ journal = {Computational Statistics \& Data Analysis},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {48},
+ pages = {735--753},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {Methods of model comparison and checking, and associated criteria,
+ are proposed based on parallel sampling of two or more models subsequent
+ to convergence. These complement Bayesian predictive criteria already
+ proposed (e.g. error sum of squares and deviance based) but are on
+ a scale that may be compared across applications. Penalised criteria
+ for model comparison based on the AIC are also investigated, together
+ with AIC model weights and evidence ratios. Parallel sampling enables
+ posterior summaries to be obtained for continuous comparison measures
+ (e.g. likelihood and evidence ratios). A forward selection procedure
+ for regression is suggested as one possible extension, as well as
+ procedures for model averaging and posterior predictive checking.
+ Comparisons with the DIC are made together with implications of parallel
+ sampling for assessing the density of the DIC. Three worked examples
+ illustrate the working of the procedures in practice.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.csda.2004.03.016},
+ keywords = {Predictive model comparison, Model checking, Parallel sampling, Predictor
+ selection, Penalties for complexity},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{cooley1986,
+ author = {Cooley, R. and Konikow, L. and Naff, R.},
+ title = {Nonlinear regression groundwater flow modeling of a deep regional
+ aquifer system},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1986},
+ volume = {22},
+ pages = {1759--1778},
+ number = {13},
+ abstract = {A nonlinear regression groundwater flow model, based on a Galerkin
+ finite-element discretization, was used to analyze steady state two-dimensional
+ groundwater flow in the areally extensive Madison aquifer in a 75,000
+ mi2 area of the Northern Great Plains. Regression parameters estimated
+ include intrinsic permeabilities of the main aquifer and separate
+ lineament zones, discharges from eight major springs surrounding
+ the Black Hills, and specified heads on the model boundaries. Aquifer
+ thickness and temperature variations were included as specified functions.
+ The regression model was applied using sequential F testing so that
+ the fewest number and simplest zonation of intrinsic permeabilities,
+ combined with the simplest overall model, were evaluated initially;
+ additional complexities (such as subdivisions of zones and variations
+ in temperature and thickness) were added in stages to evaluate the
+ subsequent degree of improvement in the model results. It was found
+ that only the eight major springs, a single main aquifer intrinsic
+ permeability, two separate lineament intrinsic permeabilities of
+ much smaller values, and temperature variations are warranted by
+ the observed data (hydraulic heads and prior information on some
+ parameters) for inclusion in a model that attempts to explain significant
+ controls on groundwater flow. Addition of thickness variations did
+ not significantly improve model results; however, thickness variations
+ were included in the final model because they are fairly well defined.
+ Effects on the observed head distribution from other features, such
+ as vertical leakage and regional variations in intrinsic permeability,
+ apparently were overshadowed by measurement errors in the observed
+ heads. Estimates of the parameters correspond well to estimates obtained
+ from other independent sources.},
+ doi = {10.1029/WR022i013p01759},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.03.04}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{cooley1990,
+ author = {Cooley, R. and Naff, R.},
+ title = {Regression modeling of ground--water flow},
+ institution = {United States Geological Survey},
+ year = {1990},
+ type = {{Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations}},
+ number = {{Book 3, Chap. B4}},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.03.04}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{cools2006,
+ author = {Cools, J. and Meyus, Y. and Woldeamlak, S. and Batelaan, O. and {De
+ Smedt}, F.},
+ title = {Large--scale {GIS}--based hydrogeological modeling of {F}landers:
+ {A} tool for groundwater management},
+ journal = {Environmental Geology},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {50},
+ pages = {1201--1209},
+ number = {8},
+ abstract = {For the implementation of the European Union Water Framework Directive
+ (WFD), technological and scientific support are required. This paper
+ presents a methodology to support a first step of the implementation
+ of WFD, which is the delineation of groundwater bodies. The methodology
+ consists of (1) the development of a complete and generally-accepted
+ hydrogeological classification system for Flanders, named the HCOV
+ code, (2) the development of a geographic information systems (GIS)-managed
+ borehole database, and (3) the development of aquifer and aquitard
+ models by means of a solid modeling approach. For each unit of the
+ hydrogeological classification code for Flanders unit, GIS maps are
+ generated for the three basic characteristics of hydrogeological
+ layers: extent, base level and thickness, such that combined, the
+ volume and extent of a hydrogeological layer is unambiguously defined.
+ This GIS-based hydrogeological database has become a useful tool
+ for groundwater management purposes and to provide the input for
+ groundwater modeling.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00254-006-0292-3},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ refid = {COOLS2006},
+ timestamp = {2008.11.04}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{cooper+al2007,
+ author = {Cooper, V. and Nguyen, {V-T} and Nicell, J.},
+ title = {Calibration of conceptual rainfall{--}runoff models using global
+ optimisation methods with hydrologic process-based parameter constraints},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {334},
+ pages = {455--466},
+ number = {3-4},
+ abstract = {The major difficulty associated with the use of conceptual rainfall{--}runoff
+ (CRR) models in hydrology is their calibration since most of these
+ models involve a large number of parameters. CRR model calibration
+ is a global optimisation problem since its main objective is to find
+ a set of optimal model parameter values that provides a best fit
+ between observed and estimated flow hydrographs. However, even when
+ using the superior search capabilities of modern global optimisation
+ methods (GOM), the search for a set of optimal parameter values within
+ an inflated multi-dimensional search space can result in an inefficient
+ search and may lead to inaccurate parameter estimates. In addition,
+ in most CRR model calibration studies to-date, no explicit constraint
+ in the search procedure was used that could ensure the physical consistency
+ of the estimated parameters. Improvements in parameter estimates
+ could be achieved if the search space could be reduced through the
+ incorporation of constraints that describe the logical interactions
+ between the rainfall and runoff processes. A methodology is proposed
+ herein for formulating constraints to improve the probability of
+ success of calibration methods. More specifically, inequalities relating
+ CRR model parameters with the available hydrologic data were developed
+ and incorporated into a GOM to reduce the search space. The shuffled
+ complex evolution (SCE) GOM showed that this approach resulted in
+ significant improvements in the estimation of CRR model parameters
+ for the case of synthetic streamflow data without errors as well
+ as for data with heteroscesdastic errors. Furthermore, the suggested
+ constrained SCE-based calibration procedure could provide CRR model
+ parameter estimates that are consistent with the physically plausible
+ interactions between the rainfall and runoff processes under consideration.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.10.036},
+ keywords = {Conceptual rainfall{--}runoff models, Global optimisation methods,
+ Model calibration, Shuffled complex evolution technique, Constrained
+ optimisation},
+ tags = {SWAT, Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{cooper+al1997,
+ author = {Cooper, V. and Nguyen, {V-T} and Nicell, J.},
+ title = {Evaluation of global optimization methods for conceptual rainfall-runoff
+ model calibration},
+ journal = {Water Science \& Technology},
+ year = {1997},
+ volume = {36},
+ pages = {53--60},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {The calibration of conceptual rainfall runoff (CRR) models is an optimization
+ problem whose objective is to determine the values of the model parameters
+ which provide the best fit between observed and estimated flows.
+ This study investigated the performance of three probabilistic optimization
+ techniques for calibrating the Tank model, a hydrologic model typical
+ of CRR models. These methods were the Shuffled Complex Evolution
+ (SCE), genetic algorithms (GA) and simulated annealing (SA) methods.
+ It was found that performances depended on the choice of the objective
+ function considered and also on the position of the start of the
+ optimization search relative to the global optimum. Of the three
+ global optimization methods (GOM) in the study, the SCE method provided
+ better estimates of the optimal solution than the GA and SA methods.
+ Regarding the efficiency of the GOMs, as expressed by the number
+ of iterations for convergence, the ranking in order of decreasing
+ performance was the SCE, the GA and the SA methods. (C) 1997 IAWQ.
+ Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.},
+ keywords = {conceptual rainfall-runoff models, genetic algorithms, global optimization,
+ model calibration, shuffled complex evolution method, simulated annealing},
+ tags = {Calibration},
+ url = {http://www.iwaponline.com/wst/03605/wst036050053.htm}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{cooren+al2009,
+ author = {Cooren, Y. and Clerc, M. and Siarry, P.},
+ title = {{Performance evaluation of TRIBES, an adaptive particle swarm optimisation
+ algorithm}},
+ journal = {Swarm Intelligence},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {3},
+ pages = {149--178},
+ number = {2},
+ doi = {10.1007/s11721-009-0026-8},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.09.26}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{coppola+al2010,
+ author = {Coppola, E. and Giorgi, F. and Rauscher, S. and Piani, C.},
+ title = {Model weighting based on mesoscale structures in precipitation and
+ temperature in an ensemble of regional climate models},
+ journal = {Climate Research},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {44},
+ pages = {121--134},
+ number = {2--3},
+ abstract = {We present a weighting scheme specifically designed for regional climate
+ models (RCMs) in that it is based on the model performance in simulating
+ the sub-global climate model (GCM) mesoscale climate signal. The
+ functional form of the weights is based on multiple variables (temperature
+ and precipitation) and metrics (correlation and root mean square
+ error). The weighting scheme is applied to an ensemble of RCM simulations
+ for the European region recently completed as part of the ENSEMBLES
+ project. As a test of the successful implementation of the scheme,
+ the weighting leads to an overall improvement of the performance
+ of the ensemble when measured with the same metrics used in the weighting.
+ The improvement is particularly pronounced over topographically complex
+ regions (e.g. the Alps) in which a larger inter-model range of performance,
+ and thus a more aggressive weighting, is found. When applied to the
+ generation of probabilistic climate change projections, this scheme
+ is designed to be used in conjunction with other RCM weighting metrics
+ developed in the ENSEMBLES project and corresponding weighting schemes
+ for the GCMs driving the regional models.},
+ doi = {10.3354/cr00940},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.07.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hess-15-2963-2011,
+ author = {{Corzo Perez}, G. A. and {van Huijgevoort}, M. H. J. and Vo{\ss},
+ F. and {van Lanen}, H. A. J.},
+ title = {On the spatio-temporal analysis of hydrological droughts from global
+ hydrological models},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {15},
+ pages = {2963--2978},
+ number = {9},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-15-2963-2011},
+ url = {http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/15/2963/2011/}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{cowles1996,
+ author = {Cowles, M. and Carlin, B.},
+ title = {Markov chain {M}onte {C}arlo convergence diagnostics: {A} comparative
+ review},
+ journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
+ year = {1996},
+ volume = {91},
+ pages = {883--904},
+ number = {434},
+ abstract = {A critical issue for users of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods
+ in applications is how to determine when it is safe to stop sampling
+ and use the samples to estimate characteristics of the distribution
+ of interest. Research into methods of computing theoretical convergence
+ bounds holds promise for the future but to date has yielded relatively
+ little of practical use in applied work. Consequently, most MCMC
+ users address the convergence problem by applying diagnostic tools
+ to the output produced by running their samplers. After giving a
+ brief overview of the area, we provide an expository review of 13
+ convergence diagnostics, describing the theoretical basis and practical
+ implementation of each. We then compare their performance in two
+ simple models and conclude that all of the methods can fail to detect
+ the sorts of convergence failure that they were designed to identify.
+ We thus recommend a combination of strategies aimed at evaluating
+ and accelerating MCMC sampler convergence, including applying diagnostic
+ procedures to a small number of parallel chains, monitoring autocorrelations
+ and cross-correlations, and modifying parameterizations or sampling
+ algorithms appropriately. We emphasize, however, that it is not possible
+ to say with certainty that a finite sample from an MCMC algorithm
+ is representative of an underlying stationary distribution.},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ refid = {COWLES1996},
+ timestamp = {2008.11.04},
+ url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2291683}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{crisswinston2008,
+ author = {Criss, R. and Winston, W.},
+ title = {Do {N}ash values have value? {D}iscussion and alternate proposals},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {22},
+ pages = {2723--2725},
+ number = {14},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.7072},
+ highlights = {Volumetric Efficiency (VE), similar to pabias (absolute pbias)},
+ tags = {Calibration, Goodness-of-Fit}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{doll2002,
+ author = {D\"oll, P.},
+ title = {Impact of climate change and variability on irrigation requirements:
+ {A} global perspective},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {54},
+ pages = {269--293},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change does not only affect water resources
+ but also water demand. Future water and food security will depend,
+ among other factors, on the impact of climate change on water demand
+ for irrigation. Using a recently developed global irrigation model,
+ with a spatial resolution of 0.5degrees by 0.5degrees, we present
+ the first global analysis of the impact of climate change and climate
+ variability on irrigation water requirements. We compute how long-term
+ average irrigation requirements might change under the climatic conditions
+ of the 2020s and the 2070s, as provided by two climate models, and
+ relate these changes to the variations in irrigation requirements
+ caused by long-term and interannual climate variability in the 20th
+ century. Two-thirds of the global area equipped for irrigation in
+ 1995 will possibly suffer from increased water requirements, and
+ on up to half of the total area (depending on the measure of variability),
+ the negative impact of climate change is more significant than that
+ of climate variability.},
+ doi = {10.1023/A:1016124032231},
+ keywords = {AGRICULTURE, DEMAND, MODEL},
+ tags = {Agriculture, Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{doll2008,
+ author = {D\"oll, P. and Fiedler, K.},
+ title = {Global-scale modeling of groundwater recharge},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {12},
+ pages = {863--885},
+ number = {3},
+ month = {May},
+ abstract = {Long-term average groundwater recharge, which is equivalent to renewable
+ groundwater resources, is the major limiting factor for the sustainable
+ use of groundwater. Compared to surface water resources, groundwater
+ resources are more protected from pollution, and their use is less
+ restricted by seasonal and inter-annual flow variations. To support
+ water management in a globalized world, it is necessary to estimate
+ groundwater recharge at the global scale. Here, we present a best
+ estimate of global-scale long-term average diffuse groundwater recharge
+ (i.e. renewable groundwater resources) that has been calculated by
+ the most recent version of the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model WGHM
+ (spatial resolution of 0.5° by 0.5°, daily time steps). The estimate
+ was obtained using two state-of-the-art global data sets of gridded
+ observed precipitation that we corrected for measurement errors,
+ which also allowed to quantify the uncertainty due to these equally
+ uncertain data sets. The standard WGHM groundwater recharge algorithm
+ was modified for semi-arid and arid regions, based on independent
+ estimates of diffuse groundwater recharge, which lead to an unbiased
+ estimation of groundwater recharge in these regions. WGHM was tuned
+ against observed long-term average river discharge at 1235 gauging
+ stations by adjusting, individually for each basin, the partitioning
+ of precipitation into evapotranspiration and total runoff. We estimate
+ that global groundwater recharge was 12 666 km3/yr for the climate
+ normal 1961–1990, i.e. 32% of total renewable water resources. In
+ semi-arid and arid regions, mountainous regions, permafrost regions
+ and in the Asian Monsoon region, groundwater recharge accounts for
+ a lower fraction of total runoff, which makes these regions particularly
+ vulnerable to seasonal and inter-annual precipitation variability
+ and water pollution. Average per-capita renewable groundwater resources
+ of countries vary between 8 m3/(capita yr) for Egypt to more than
+ 1 million m3/(capita yr) for the Falkland Islands, the global average
+ in the year 2000 being 2091 m3/(capita yr). Regarding the uncertainty
+ of estimated groundwater resources due to the two precipitation data
+ sets, deviation from the mean is 1.1% for the global value, and less
+ than 1% for 50 out of the 165 countries considered, between 1 and
+ 5% for 62, between 5 and 20% for 43 and between 20 and 80% for 10
+ countries. Deviations at the grid scale can be much larger, ranging
+ between 0 and 186 mm/yr.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-12-863-2008},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.08.10}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{doll2003,
+ author = {D\"oll, P. and Kaspar, F. and Lehner, B.},
+ title = {A global hydrological model for deriving water availability indicators:
+ model tuning and validation},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {270},
+ pages = {105--134},
+ number = {1--2},
+ month = {January},
+ abstract = {Freshwater availability has been recognized as a global issue, and
+ its consistent quantification not only in individual river basins
+ but also at the global scale is required to support the sustainable
+ use of water. The WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model WGHM, which is
+ a submodel of the global water use and availability model WaterGAP
+ 2, computes surface runoff, groundwater recharge and river discharge
+ at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. WGHM is based on the best global
+ data sets currently available, and simulates the reduction of river
+ discharge by human water consumption. In order to obtain a reliable
+ estimate of water availability, it is tuned against observed discharge
+ at 724 gauging stations, which represent 50% of the global land area
+ and 70% of the actively discharging area. For 50% of these stations,
+ the tuning of one model parameter was sufficient to achieve that
+ simulated and observed long-term average discharges agree within
+ 1%. For the rest, however, additional corrections had to be applied
+ to the simulated runoff and discharge values. WGHM not only computes
+ the long-term average water resources of a country or a drainage
+ basin but also water availability indicators that take into account
+ the interannual and seasonal variability of runoff and discharge.
+ The reliability of the modeling results is assessed by comparing
+ observed and simulated discharges at the tuning stations and at selected
+ other stations. The comparison shows that WGHM is able to calculate
+ reliable and meaningful indicators of water availability at a high
+ spatial resolution. In particular, the 90% reliable monthly discharge
+ is simulated well. Therefore, WGHM is suited for application in global
+ assessments related to water security, food security and freshwater
+ ecosystems.},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00283-4},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.08.10}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{doll2010,
+ author = {D\"oll, P. and Zhang, J.},
+ title = {Impact of climate change on freshwater ecosystems: {A} global--scale
+ analysis of ecologically relevant river flow alterations},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {14},
+ pages = {783--799},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {River flow regimes, including long-term average flows, seasonality,
+ low flows, high flows and other types of flow variability, play an
+ important role for freshwater ecosystems. Thus, climate change affects
+ freshwater ecosystems not only by increased temperatures but also
+ by altered river flow regimes. However, with one exception, transferable
+ quantitative relations between flow alterations and ecological responses
+ have not yet been derived. While discharge decreases are generally
+ considered to be detrimental for ecosystems, the effect of future
+ discharge increases is unclear. As a first step towards a global-scale
+ analysis of climate change impacts on freshwater ecosystems, we quantified
+ the impact of climate change on five ecologically relevant river
+ flow indicators, using the global water model WaterGAP 2.1g to simulate
+ monthly time series of river discharge with a spatial resolution
+ of 0.5 degrees. Four climate change scenarios based on two global
+ climate models and two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios were evaluated.
+ We compared the impact of climate change by the 2050s to the impact
+ of water withdrawals and dams on natural flow regimes that had occurred
+ by 2002. Climate change was computed to alter seasonal flow regimes
+ significantly (i.e. by more than 10%) on 90% of the global land area
+ (excluding Greenland and Antarctica), as compared to only one quarter
+ of the land area that had suffered from significant seasonal flow
+ regime alterations due to dams and water withdrawals. Due to climate
+ change, the timing of the maximum mean monthly river discharge will
+ be shifted by at least one month on one third on the global land
+ area, more often towards earlier months (mainly due to earlier snowmelt).
+ Dams and withdrawals had caused comparable shifts on less than 5%
+ of the land area only. Long-term average annual river discharge is
+ predicted to significantly increase on one half of the land area,
+ and to significantly decrease on one quarter. Dams and withdrawals
+ had led to significant decreases on one sixth of the land area, and
+ nowhere to increases. Thus, by the 2050s, climate change may have
+ impacted ecologically relevant river flow characteristics more strongly
+ than dams and water withdrawals have up to now. The only exception
+ refers to the decrease of the statistical low flow Q90, with significant
+ decreases both by past water withdrawals and future climate change
+ on one quarter of the land area. However, dam impacts are likely
+ underestimated by our study. Considering long-term average river
+ discharge, only a few regions, including Spain, Italy, Iraq, Southern
+ India, Western China, the Australian Murray Darling Basin and the
+ High Plains Aquifer in the USA, all of them with extensive irrigation,
+ are expected to be less affected by climate change than by past anthropogenic
+ flow alterations. In some of these regions, climate change will exacerbate
+ the discharge reductions, while in others climate change provides
+ opportunities for reducing past reductions. Emissions scenario B2
+ leads to only slightly reduced alterations of river flow regimes
+ as compared to scenario A2 even though emissions are much smaller.
+ The differences in alterations resulting from the two applied climate
+ models are larger than those resulting from the two emissions scenarios.
+ Based on general knowledge about ecosystem responses to flow alterations
+ and data related to flow alterations by dams and water withdrawals,
+ we expect that the computed climate change induced river flow alterations
+ will impact freshwater ecosystems more strongly than past anthropogenic
+ alterations.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-14-783-2010},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.21}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{deque2007,
+ author = {D\'equ\'e, M.},
+ title = {Frequency of precipitation and temperature extremes over France in
+ an anthropogenic scenario: Model results and statistical correction
+ according to observed values},
+ journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {57},
+ pages = {16--26},
+ number = {1--2},
+ abstract = {Météo-France atmospheric model ARPEGE/Climate has been used to simulate
+ present climate (1961–1990) and a possible future climate (2071–2100)
+ through two ensembles of three 30-year numerical experiments. In
+ the scenario experiment, the greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations
+ are prescribed by the so-called SRES-A2 hypotheses, whereas the sea
+ surface temperature and sea ice extent come from an earlier ocean–atmosphere
+ coupled simulation. The model covers the whole globe, with a variable
+ resolution reaching 50 to 60 km over France. Model responses on daily
+ minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation are analyzed over
+ France. The distribution of daily values is compared with observed
+ data from the French climatological network. The extreme cold temperatures
+ and summer heavy precipitations are underestimated by the model.
+ A correction technique is proposed in order to adjust the simulated
+ values according to the observed ones. This process is applied to
+ both reference and scenario simulation. Synthetic indices of extreme
+ events are calculated with corrected simulations. The number of heavy
+ rain (N10 mm) days increases by one quarter in winter. The maximum
+ length of summer dry episodes increases by one half in summer. The
+ number of heat wave days is multiplied by 10. The response in precipitation
+ is less when only the change in the mean is considered. Such a corrected
+ simulation is useful to feed impact models which are sensitive to
+ threshold values, but the correction does not reduce, and may enhance
+ in some cases, the uncertainty about the climate projections. Using
+ several models and scenarios is the appropriate technique to deal
+ with uncertainty.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.11.030},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.25}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{deque+al2005,
+ author = {D\'equ\'e, M. and Jones, R. and Wild, M. and Giorgi, F. and Christensen,
+ J. and Hassell, D. and Vidale, P. and Rockel, B. and Jacob, D. and
+ Kjellstr\"om, E. and {de Castro}, M. and Kucharski, F. and {van den
+ Hurk}, B.},
+ title = {Global high resolution versus {L}imited {A}rea {M}odel climate change
+ projections over {E}urope: {Q}uantifying confidence level from {PRUDENCE}
+ results},
+ journal = {Climate Dynamics},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {25},
+ pages = {653--670},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {Four high resolution atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs)
+ have been integrated with the standard forcings of the PRUDENCE experiment:
+ IPCC-SRES A2 radiative forcing and Hadley Centre sea surface temperature
+ and sea-ice extent. The response over Europe, calculated as the difference
+ between the 2071--2100 and the 1961--1990 means is compared with
+ the same diagnostic obtained with nine Regional Climate Models (RCM)
+ all driven by the Hadley Centre atmospheric GCM. The seasonal mean
+ response for 2m temperature and precipitation is investigated. For
+ temperature, GCMs and RCMs behave similarly, except that GCMs exhibit
+ a larger spread. However, during summer, the spread of the RCMsâ€â€in
+ particular in terms of precipitationâ€â€is larger than that of the
+ GCMs. This indicates that the European summer climate is strongly
+ controlled by parameterized physics and/or high-resolution processes.
+ The temperature response is larger than the systematic error. The
+ situation is different for precipitation. The model bias is twice
+ as large as the climate response. The confidence in PRUDENCE results
+ comes from the fact that the models have a similar response to the
+ IPCC-SRES A2 forcing, whereas their systematic errors are more spread.
+ In addition, GCM precipitation response is slightly but significantly
+ different from that of the RCMs.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00382-005-0052-1},
+ keywords = {PRUDENCE},
+ tags = {Multimodel - Ensambles, RCMs}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{deque+al2007,
+ author = {D\'equ\'e, M. and Rowell, D. and L{\"u}thi, D. and Giorgi, F. and
+ Christensen, J. and Rockel, B. and Jacob, D. and Kjellstr\"om, E.
+ and {de Castro}, M. and {van den Hurk}, B.},
+ title = {An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for {E}urope:
+ {A}ssessing uncertainties in model projections},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {81},
+ pages = {53--70},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {Ten regional climate models (RCM) have been integrated with the standard
+ forcings of the PRUDENCE experiment: IPCC-SRES A2 radiative forcing
+ and Hadley Centre boundary conditions. The response over Europe,
+ calculated as the difference between the 2071--2100 and the 1961--1990
+ means can be viewed as an expected value about which various uncertainties
+ exist. Uncertainties are measured here by variance in eight sub-European
+ boxes. Four sources of uncertainty can be evaluated with the material
+ provided by the PRUDENCE project. Sampling uncertainty is due to
+ the fact that the model climate is estimated as an average over a
+ finite number of years (30). Model uncertainty is due to the fact
+ that the models use different techniques to discretize the equations
+ and to represent sub-grid effects. Radiative uncertainty is due to
+ the fact that IPCC-SRES A2 is merely one hypothesis. Some RCMs have
+ been run with another scenario of greenhouse gas concentration (IPCC-SRES
+ B2). Boundary uncertainty is due to the fact that the regional models
+ have been run under the constraint of the same global model. Some
+ RCMs have been run with other boundary forcings. The contribution
+ of the different sources varies according to the field, the region
+ and the season, but the role of boundary forcing is generally greater
+ than the role of the RCM, in particular for temperature. Maps of
+ minimum expected 2m temperature and precipitation responses for the
+ IPCC-A2 scenario show that, despite the above mentioned uncertainties,
+ the signal from the PRUDENCE ensemble is significant},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10584-006-9228-x},
+ tags = {Multimodel - Ensambles, RCMs}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{dequesomot2010,
+ author = {D\'equ\'e, M. and Somot, S.},
+ title = {{Weighted frequency distributions express modelling uncertainties
+ in the ENSEMBLES regional climate experiments}},
+ journal = {Climate Research},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {44},
+ pages = {195--209},
+ number = {2--3},
+ abstract = {Fourteen regional climate models (RCMs) were driven by general circulation
+ models (GCMs) in FP6-ENSEMBLES to provide 17 fine-scale (25 km) climate
+ change scenarios for the period 2021–2050. In a preliminary exercise,
+ these RCMs were driven by gridded observations (ERA40 reanalysis)
+ to simulate as accurately as possible the 1961–2000 period. The quality
+ of this reproduction was used to calculate a weight for each model.
+ Each individual model climate had an uncertainty due to the finite
+ sampling (30 yr). These spreads were combined by those weights to
+ produce an ensemble uncertainty. We illustrate here the daily and
+ climatological frequency distributions for winter and summer temperature
+ and precipitation in 3 European cities (Budapest, Dublin and Lisbon).
+ The distribution obtained by ENSEMBLES weights was compared with
+ a distribution using equal weights, distributions using random weights
+ and distributions based on a single model. As far as the reproduction
+ of the observed distribution (1961–1990) is concerned, there is no
+ evidence that the ENSEMBLES weight system provides results closer
+ to observation than equal weights or weights drawn at random. A single
+ model taken at random yields a quality score not better than ENSEMBLES
+ in the case of precipitation, and worse than ENSEMBLES in the case
+ of temperature. As far as climate change for 2021–2050 is concerned,
+ the use of ENSEMBLES weights instead of equal weights also leads
+ to a similar response at daily as well as 30 yr mean time scales.},
+ doi = {10.3354/cr00866},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.07.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{deque+al2011,
+ author = {D\'equ\'e, M. and Somot, S. and {Sanchez-Gomez}, E. and Goodess,
+ C. and Jacob, D. and Lenderink, G. and Christensen, O.},
+ title = {{The spread amongst ENSEMBLES regional scenarios: regional climate
+ models, driving general circulation models and interannual variability}},
+ journal = {Climate Dynamics},
+ year = {2011},
+ pages = {1--14},
+ abstract = {Various combinations of thirteen regional climate models (RCM) and
+ six general circulation models (GCM) were used in FP6-ENSEMBLES.
+ The response to the SRES-A1B greenhouse gas concentration scenario
+ over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2021–2050 and
+ the 1961–1990 means can be viewed as an expected value about which
+ various uncertainties exist. Uncertainties are measured here by variance
+ explained for temperature and precipitation changes over eight European
+ sub-areas. Three sources of uncertainty can be evaluated from the
+ ENSEMBLES database. Sampling uncertainty is due to the fact that
+ the model climate is estimated as an average over a finite number
+ of years (30) despite a non-negligible interannual variability. Regional
+ model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs use different
+ techniques to discretize the equations and to represent sub-grid
+ effects. Global model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs
+ have been driven by different GCMs. Two methods are presented to
+ fill the many empty cells of the ENSEMBLES RCM × GCM matrix. The
+ first one is based on the same approach as in FP5-PRUDENCE. The second
+ one uses the concept of weather regimes to attempt to separate the
+ contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The variance of the climate
+ response is analyzed with respect to the contribution of the GCM
+ and the RCM. The two filling methods agree that the main contributor
+ to the spread is the choice of the GCM, except for summer precipitation
+ where the choice of the RCM dominates the uncertainty. Of course
+ the implication of the GCM to the spread varies with the region,
+ being maximum in the South-western part of Europe, whereas the continental
+ parts are more sensitive to the choice of the RCM. The third cause
+ of spread is systematically the interannual variability. The total
+ uncertainty about temperature is not large enough to mask the 2021–2050
+ response which shows a similar pattern to the one obtained for 2071–2100
+ in PRUDENCE. The uncertainty about precipitation prevents any quantitative
+ assessment on the response at grid point level for the 2021–2050
+ period. One can however see, as in PRUDENCE, a positive response
+ in winter (more rain in the scenario than in the reference) in northern
+ Europe and a negative summer response in southern Europe.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00382-011-1053-x},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.05.26}
+}
+
+@BOOK{dagan1989,
+ title = {Flow and transport in porous formations},
+ publisher = {Springer-Verlag},
+ year = {1989},
+ author = {Dagan, G.},
+ pages = {470},
+ address = {Berlin},
+ edition = {First},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{dagan1985,
+ author = {Dagan, G.},
+ title = {Stochastic modelling of groundwater flow by unconditional and conditional
+ probabilities: {T}he inverse problem},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1985},
+ volume = {21},
+ pages = {65-72},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {The inverse problem is defined here as follows : determine the transmissivity
+ at varius points, given the shape and boundary of the aquifer and
+ recharge intensity and given a set of measured log-transmissivity
+ Y and head H values at a few points. The log-transmissivity distribution
+ is regarded as a realization of a random function of normal and stationary
+ unconditional probability density function (pdf). The solution of
+ the inverse problem is the conditional normal pdf of Y, conditioned
+ on measured H and Y, which is expressed in terms of the unconditional
+ joint pdf of Y and H. The problem is reduced to determining the unconditional
+ head-log-transmissivity covariance and head variogram for a selected
+ Y covariance which depends on a few unknown parameters. This is achieved
+ by solving a first-order approximation of the flow equations. The
+ method is illustrated for an exponential Y covariance, and the effect
+ of head and transmissivity measurements upon the reduction of uncertainty
+ of Y is investigated systematically. It is shown that measurement
+ of H has a lesser impact than those of Y, but a judicious combination
+ may lead to significant reduction of the predicted variance of Y.
+ Possible applications to real aquifers are outlined.},
+ doi = {10.1029/WR021i001p00065},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.09.11}
+}
+
+@BOOK{daganneuman1997,
+ title = {Subsurface flow and transport: {A} stochastic approach},
+ publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
+ year = {1997},
+ author = {Dagan, G. and Neuman, S.},
+ pages = {256},
+ address = {Cambridge},
+ edition = {First},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{dai2011,
+ author = {Dai, A.},
+ title = {Drought under global warming: a review},
+ journal = {{Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change}},
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {2},
+ pages = {45--65},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {This article reviews recent literature on drought of the last millennium,
+ followed by an update on global aridity changes from 1950 to 2008.
+ Projected future aridity is presented based on recent studies and
+ our analysis of model simulations. Dry periods lasting for years
+ to decades have occurred many times during the last millennium over,
+ for example, North America, West Africa, and East Asia. These droughts
+ were likely triggered by anomalous tropical sea surface temperatures
+ (SSTs), with La Niña-like SST anomalies leading to drought in North
+ America, and El-Niño-like SSTs causing drought in East China. Over
+ Africa, the southward shift of the warmest SSTs in the Atlantic and
+ warming in the Indian Ocean are responsible for the recent Sahel
+ droughts. Local feedbacks may enhance and prolong drought. Global
+ aridity has increased substantially since the 1970s due to recent
+ drying over Africa, southern Europe, East and South Asia, and eastern
+ Australia. Although El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), tropical
+ Atlantic SSTs, and Asian monsoons have played a large role in the
+ recent drying, recent warming has increased atmospheric moisture
+ demand and likely altered atmospheric circulation patterns, both
+ contributing to the drying. Climate models project increased aridity
+ in the 21st century over most of Africa, southern Europe and the
+ Middle East, most of the Americas, Australia, and Southeast Asia.
+ Regions like the United States have avoided prolonged droughts during
+ the last 50 years due to natural climate variations, but might see
+ persistent droughts in the next 20–50 years. Future efforts to predict
+ drought will depend on models' ability to predict tropical SSTs.},
+ doi = {10.1002/wcc.81},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.07.05}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{dankers+al2007,
+ author = {Dankers, R. and Christensen, O. and Feyen, L. and Kalas, M. and {de
+ Roo}, A.},
+ title = {Evaluation of very high-resolution climate model data for simulating
+ flood hazards in the {U}pper {D}anube basin},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {347},
+ pages = {319--331},
+ number = {3--4},
+ abstract = {For the purpose of assessing flood hazard in the Upper Danube Basin
+ in Central Europe under current and projected future climate conditions,
+ we evaluated data from a recent experiment with the regional climate
+ model HIRHAM at a horizontal resolution of approximately 12 km. The
+ climate simulations were used to drive the hydrological model LISFLOOD
+ and the results were compared with observations of precipitation
+ and river discharge in the area. To explore the benefits of using
+ these very high-resolution data, we also included the results of
+ two HIRHAM experiments at a lower resolution of not, vert, similar50
+ km in our comparison. It was found that the 12-km data represent
+ the orographic precipitation patterns and the extreme rainfall events
+ over the Upper Danube Basin better than the low-resolution 50-km
+ data. However, the average precipitation rates are generally higher
+ than observed, while the extreme precipitation levels are mostly
+ underestimated. Using the HIRHAM data as input into the LISFLOOD
+ model resulted in a realistic simulation of the average discharge
+ regime in the Upper Danube. In most rivers the 12-km data also led
+ to a better representation of extreme discharge levels, although
+ the performance was still poor in two relatively small rivers originating
+ in the Alps. At larger spatial scales much of the differences and
+ uncertainties between the high- and low-resolution climate data and
+ the observations are averaged out, resulting in a more or less similar
+ performance of the hydrological model, but at the local and sub-basin
+ scale the 12-km data yield better results. The scenario simulations
+ suggest that future climate changes will have an influence on the
+ discharge regime and may increase the flood hazard in large parts
+ of the Upper Danube Basin.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.09.055},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.21}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{dankersfeyen2009,
+ author = {Dankers, R. and Feyen, L.},
+ title = {Flood hazard in {E}urope in an ensemble of regional climate scenarios},
+ journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {114},
+ pages = {1--16},
+ number = {D16108},
+ abstract = {We analyze changes in flood hazard in Europe by examining extreme
+ discharge levels as simulated by the hydrological model LISFLOOD
+ when driven by a multimodel ensemble of climate simulations. The
+ ensemble consists of simulations from two regional climate models
+ (RCMs), both run with boundary conditions from two global models,
+ and for two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. In northeastern
+ Europe, a general decrease in extreme river discharge is observed
+ in the scenario period, suggesting a reduction in the hazard of extreme
+ snowmelt floods. Elsewhere, we find a consistent tendency toward
+ a higher flood hazard in the majority of the model experiments in
+ several major European rivers. These changes can partly be attributed
+ to large, decadal-scale variability in the simulated climate and
+ can be expected to occur naturally when comparing two 30-year time
+ periods, even without a change in greenhouse gas forcing. We furthermore
+ find evidence for a considerable influence of especially the global
+ model that is used to drive the RCMs. At the scale of individual
+ river basins, using a different combination of climate models or
+ assuming a different emissions scenario sometimes results in a very
+ different or even opposite climate change signal in flood hazard.
+ We therefore believe that a multimodel approach as adopted in the
+ present paper provides the best way to address the various uncertainties
+ in impact studies of hydrometeorological extremes. Probabilistic
+ scenarios that consist of multiple realizations of the current and
+ future climate state are indispensable to better identify the climate
+ signal amidst large variability.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2008JD011523},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.08.09}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{dankersfeyen2008,
+ author = {Dankers, R. and Feyen, L.},
+ title = {Climate change impact on flood hazard in {E}urope: {A}n assessment
+ based on high--resolution climate simulations},
+ journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {113},
+ pages = {D19105},
+ number = {D19},
+ abstract = {Global warming is generally expected to increase the magnitude and
+ frequency of extreme precipitation events, which may lead to more
+ intense and frequent river flooding. This work assesses the implications
+ of climate change for future flood hazard in Europe. Regional climate
+ simulations from the HIRHAM model with 12-km horizontal resolution
+ were used to drive the hydrological model LISFLOOD, and extreme value
+ techniques were applied to the results to estimate the probability
+ of extreme discharges. It was found that by the end of this century
+ under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 emissions
+ scenario in many European rivers extreme discharge levels may increase
+ in magnitude and frequency. In several rivers, most notably in the
+ west and parts of eastern Europe, the return period of what is currently
+ a 100-year flood may in the future decrease to 50 years or less.
+ A considerable decrease in flood hazard was found in the northeast,
+ where warmer winters and a shorter snow season reduce the magnitude
+ of the spring snowmelt peak. Also in other rivers in central and
+ southern Europe a decrease in extreme river flows was simulated.
+ The results were compared with those obtained with two HIRHAM experiments
+ at 50-km resolution for the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios. Disagreements
+ between the various model experiments indicate that the effect of
+ the horizontal resolution of the regional climate model is comparable
+ in magnitude to the greenhouse gas scenario. Also, the choice of
+ extreme value distribution to estimate discharge extremes influences
+ the results, especially for events with higher return periods},
+ doi = {10.1029/2007JD009719},
+ tags = {Impacts, RCMs}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{das+al2008,
+ author = {Das, T. and Bardossy, A. and Zehe, E. and He, Y.},
+ title = {Comparison of conceptual model performance using different representations
+ of spatial variability},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {356},
+ pages = {106--118},
+ abstract = {The objective in this study is to explore a solution to the question
+ whether model input data having higher spatial resolution and higher
+ model resolution, as most people assume, lead to better model performance
+ within a given modelling objective. An attempt was made to modify
+ the conceptual rainfall-runoff model HBV to incorporate a spatially
+ distributed structure. Additionally, three more model structures
+ based on the HBV model concept were designed: lumped, semi-lumped
+ and semi-distributed. An automatic calibration procedure based on
+ simulated annealing optimization algorithm was followed for maximizing
+ an objective function composed of Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients of
+ several temporal aggregation steps. The predictive performance from
+ each model was then assessed and compared with other model structures
+ with respect to stream flow prediction at the catchment outlet. The
+ spatial variation of the meteorotogical input was produced using
+ external drift kriging method from available limited point measurements.
+ The models were applied to a mesoscale catchment located in central
+ Europe. The simulated hydrographs obtained using different model.
+ structures were analyzed through comparison of their Nash-Sutcliffe
+ coefficients and other goodness-of-fit indices. For the present study,
+ semi-distributed and semi-lumped model structures outperformed the
+ distributed and fully-lumped model structures. A possible explanation
+ why the distributed model did not perform better than the simpler
+ model structures is the use of limited available spatial information.
+ The models use interpolated precipitation and temperature as input,
+ which probably cannot reflect the true spatial variability. Another
+ possible explanation is that only discharge at the catchment outlet
+ was predicted; which is the purpose for which lumped and semi-distributed
+ models were actually designed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights
+ reserved.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.04.008},
+ keywords = {distributed modelling, spatial variability, rainfalt-runoff model,
+ predictive uncertainty, DISTRIBUTED HYDROLOGICAL MODEL, CLIMATE-CHANGE,
+ CATCHMENT MODEL, RUNOFF RESPONSE, SOIL-MOISTURE, WATER-BALANCE, RIVER-BASIN,
+ IMPACT, PRECIPITATION, UNCERTAINTY},
+ tags = {conceptual model}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{debecker1997,
+ author = {{De Becker}, P. and Huybrechts, W.},
+ title = {Het {W}alenbos--{E}cohydrologische {A}tlas},
+ institution = {Instituut voor Natuurbehoud},
+ year = {1997},
+ type = {Rep. Nr IN 97/03},
+ address = {Brussels, Belgium},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ pages = {--76 pp},
+ refid = {DEBECKER1997},
+ timestamp = {2008.11.04}
+}
+
+@INPROCEEDINGS{desmedt2007,
+ author = {{De Smedt}, F.},
+ title = {Two-- and three--dimensional flow of groundwater},
+ booktitle = {The handbook of groundwater engineering, chapter 4.},
+ year = {2007},
+ editor = {Delleur, J.},
+ pages = {1--36},
+ address = {Boca Raton, Florida},
+ publisher = {CRC Press},
+ chapter = {4},
+ edition = {Second},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.06.02}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{detoffol2008,
+ author = {{De Toffol}, S. and Engelhard, C. and Rauch, W.},
+ title = {Influence of climate change on the water resources in an alpine region},
+ journal = {Water Science \& Technology},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {58},
+ pages = {839--846},
+ number = {4},
+ month = {April},
+ abstract = {It is widely accepted that the global warming will impact on water
+ resources. This study investigates the possible influence of climate
+ change on the water resources in an alpine region. A description
+ of the actual situation with emphasis on the water resources from
+ the one side and on the water consuming factors, here called stressors,
+ is given. The probable effects of climate change in the region and
+ their influence on its water resources are then described. The main
+ outcome is that in the analysed region the climate change will rather
+ have positive influence on the water balance by inducing higher precipitations
+ during the rivers' natural low flow period (winter). This outcome
+ contradicts many common predictions, however, this due to the specifics
+ induced by the alpine nature of the catchment.},
+ doi = {10.2166/wst.2008.705},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.08.10}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{delhomme1979,
+ author = {Delhomme, J.},
+ title = {Spatial variability and uncertainty in groundwater flow model parameters:
+ A geostatistical approach},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1979},
+ volume = {15},
+ pages = {269--280},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {A geostatistical approach is proposed for characterizing the uncertainty
+ about the transmissivity field of an aquifer and analyzing its effect
+ on predicted head values. A new methodology is developed, which couples
+ conditional simulation and groundwater flow modeling. Conditional
+ simulation is used for generating different two-dimensional transmissivity
+ fields that all have the same spatial variability as the true field
+ and are consistent with the measured T values at well locations.
+ Two case studies are presented in order to illustrate the method,
+ and conclusions are drawn for future investigation.},
+ doi = {10.1029/WR015i002p00269},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@BOOK{delleur2007,
+ title = {The handbook of groundwater engineering},
+ publisher = {CRC Press},
+ year = {2007},
+ author = {Delleur, J.},
+ pages = {1320},
+ edition = {Second},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.03.24}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{dempster1977,
+ author = {Dempster, A. and Laird, N. and Rubin, D.},
+ title = {Maximum likelihood from incomplete data via the {EM} algorithm},
+ journal = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B},
+ year = {1977},
+ volume = {39},
+ pages = {1--38},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {A broadly applicable algorithm for computing maximum likelihood estimates
+ from incomplete data is presented at various levels of generality.
+ Theory showing the monotone behaviour of the likelihood and convergence
+ of the algorithm is derived. Many examples are sketched, including
+ missing value situations, applications to grouped, censored or truncated
+ data, finite mixture models, variance component estimation, hyperparameter
+ estimation, iteratively reweighted least squares and factor analysis.},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.03.13},
+ url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2984875}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{dessaihulme2007,
+ author = {Dessai, S. and Hulme, M.},
+ title = {Assessing the robustness of adaptation decisions to climate change
+ uncertainties: {A} case study on water resources management in the
+ {E}ast of {E}ngland},
+ journal = {Global Environmental Change},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {17},
+ pages = {59--72},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {Projections of future climate change are plagued with uncertainties,
+ causing difficulties for planners taking decisions on adaptation
+ measures. This paper presents an assessment framework that allows
+ the identification of adaptation strategies that are robust (i.e.
+ insensitive) to climate change uncertainties. The framework is applied
+ to a case study of water resources management in the East of England,
+ more specifically to the Anglian Water Services’ 25 year Water
+ Resource Plan (WRP). The paper presents a local sensitivity analysis
+ (a ‘one-at-a-time’ experiment) of the various elements of the
+ modelling framework (e.g., emissions of greenhouse gases, climate
+ sensitivity and global climate models) in order to determine whether
+ or not a decision to adapt to climate change is sensitive to uncertainty
+ in those elements. Water resources are found to be sensitive to uncertainties
+ in regional climate response (from general circulation models and
+ dynamical downscaling), in climate sensitivity and in climate impacts.
+ Aerosol forcing and greenhouse gas emissions uncertainties are also
+ important, whereas uncertainties from ocean mixing and the carbon
+ cycle are not. Despite these large uncertainties, Anglian Water Services’
+ WRP remains robust to the climate change uncertainties sampled because
+ of the adaptation options being considered (e.g. extension of water
+ treatment works), because the climate model used for their planning
+ (HadCM3) predicts drier conditions than other models, and because
+ ‘one-at-a-time’ experiments do not sample the combination of
+ different extremes in the uncertainty range of parameters. This research
+ raises the question of how much certainty is required in climate
+ change projections to justify investment in adaptation measures,
+ and whether such certainty can be delivered.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.11.005},
+ keywords = {Climate change, Adaptation, Uncertainty, Robustness, Sensitivity analysis,
+ Water resources, East of England},
+ tags = {Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{dessaihulme2003,
+ author = {Dessai, S. and Hulme, M.},
+ title = {Does climate policy need probabilities?},
+ institution = {Tyndall Centre Working Papers},
+ year = {2003},
+ type = {Working Paper},
+ abstract = {Estimating the likelihood of future climate change has become a topical
+ matter within the research community. This is the case because of
+ the advancement of science, user demand and the central role played
+ by prediction in guiding policy. But are probabilities what climate
+ policy really needs? This paper reviews three key questions: (1)
+ why might we need probabilities of climate change? (2) what are the
+ problems in estimating probabilities? (3) how are researchers estimating
+ probabilities? The first question is primarily analysed within the
+ context of adaptation to climate change, but mitigation and integrated
+ assessment are also briefly discussed. The second question explores
+ the types and sources of uncertainties involved in estimating probabilities
+ of climate change and how their characterisation can be controversial.
+ For the third question, an extensive review of the literature is
+ conducted on research that is creating the building blocks towards
+ estimating the likelihood of climate change. Overall, we conclude
+ that the jury is still out on whether probabilities are useful for
+ climate policy. The answer is highly context dependent and thus is
+ a function of the goals and motivation of the policy analysis, the
+ unit of analysis, timescale and the training of the analyst. There
+ are various problems in estimating the probability of future climate
+ change, but human reflexive uncertainty is largely intractable in
+ the context of prediction. Nonetheless, there is considerable scope
+ to develop novel methodologies that combine conditional probabilities
+ with scenarios and which are relevant for climate },
+ tags = {Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{dessai+al2007,
+ author = {Dessai, S. and {O'Brien}, K. and Hulme, M.},
+ title = {Editorial: {O}n uncertainty and climate change},
+ journal = {Global Environmental Change},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {17},
+ pages = {1--3},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {Climate change has emerged as one of the most multi-faceted manifestations
+ of global change of our time. As emphasized in the Third Assessment
+ Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001),
+ it is virtually certain that the Earth's climate is changing, with
+ most of the warming over the last 50 years likely to be attributable
+ to the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The
+ Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC due later this year will further
+ reinforce these conclusions. There is very high confidence that further
+ emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to human activities
+ will continue to change atmospheric composition throughout the twenty-first
+ century. There is, however, less confidence about exactly how the
+ climate will change in the future, and lesser confidence still about
+ the adjustments it will induce to natural and human systems. Given
+ the wide range of uncertainties associated with future climate change,
+ it is not surprising that debates within the two domains of human
+ response to climate change—adaptation and mitigation—remain deeply
+ contentious and irresolvable.
+
+ Uncertainty, then, is pervasive in the climate change debate, but
+ uncertainty is not unique to climate change. There is uncertainty
+ associated with other global phenomena—the economy, geopolitics and
+ health—whether in relation to economic crises, terrorism, or influenzas
+ and pandemics. In fact, uncertainty is a multi-dimensional concept
+ that is omnipresent in our society. A number of different uncertainty
+ typologies have been proposed and used in the literature, but there
+ is no agreement on the best uncertainty classification. For example,
+ in the context of model-based decision support, Walker et al. (2003)
+ classify uncertainties according to three dimensions: their ‘location’,
+ where uncertainty manifests itself in the model complex; their ‘level’,
+ where uncertainty manifests itself on the gradual spectrum between
+ deterministic knowledge and total ignorance; and their ‘nature’,
+ whether uncertainty primarily stems from imperfect knowledge or due
+ to inherent variability. Mehta et al. (1999) discuss how ecological
+ uncertainties, livelihood uncertainties and knowledge uncertainties
+ are addressed by institutions, and they call for a more sophisticated
+ understanding of the relationship between institutions and uncertainty.
+ In terms of climate change, knowledge uncertainties have received
+ the most attention, followed by ecological uncertainties and livelihood
+ uncertainties. Nevertheless, all three types of uncertainties, and
+ indeed many others, have implications for climate policy and for
+ human security in the context of a changing climate.
+
+ Some have argued that climate policy needs ‘robust’ science (Patrinos
+ and Bamzai, 2005)—an argument that favours more scientific research
+ over policy action. Others have argued that uncertainty should not
+ be used as a justification to do nothing, instead arguing that it
+ provides a reason to take specific policy action in the near term
+ (Yohe et al., 2004). Between these two positions, there are a range
+ of views about the implications of uncertainties for different types
+ of policy responses, ranging from mitigation to adaptation (Congressional
+ Budget Office, 2005; Stern, 2006). Uncertainties about climate change
+ not only shape international, national and local climate policy,
+ but they also influence perceptions of and responses to climate change
+ at the level of individuals, communities and businesses. As Heal
+ and Kriström (2002, p. 34) emphasize, “climate change involves uncertainties
+ in a breathtaking number of dimensions, including, but not limited
+ to, the fields of natural science and economicsâ€.
+
+ The issue of uncertainty is clearly not trivial, nor are the uncertainties
+ themselves, yet little effort has been made to systematically assess
+ what uncertainty means for the many dimensions of climate change
+ analysis and action. A wider understanding of uncertainty must, as
+ a minimum, include perspectives from psychology, ethics, decision
+ sciences and law. Although uncertainty about climate change has received
+ growing attention in recent years, much of this has focused on the
+ description of scientific uncertainties in the climate system (Carter
+ et al., 1999), and to a lesser extent in climate change impact assessments
+ (Jones, 2000). The only peer-reviewed special journal issue on the
+ topic of climate change uncertainty was published in 2005 in Comptes
+ Rendus Geoscience (edited by Michel Petit (2005)) on “Scientific
+ uncertainties and climate riskâ€. This special issue was the result
+ of presentations made at an IPCC workshop in Ireland in 2004 on “Describing
+ scientific uncertainties in climate change to support analysis of
+ risk and of optionsâ€. This mainly focused on a fairly narrowly drawn
+ definition of uncertainty around issues of climate science and prediction.
+ What is still missing, however, is a wider examination of the many
+ ways that uncertainty affects and how individuals, organisations
+ and societies respond to climate change, and what this means for
+ future sustainability.
+
+ This special issue of Global Environmental Change brings together
+ a wider range of perspectives—from geography, psychology, communication
+ science and decision making—on the way uncertainty affects possible
+ responses to climate change. The six research papers in this special
+ issue are developed from presentations made at a session (with the
+ same title) at the Sixth Open Meeting of the Human Dimensions of
+ Global Environmental Change Research Community, which took place
+ in Bonn from 9 to 13 October 2005. Although not a comprehensive discussion
+ of all the many dimensions of uncertainty, the papers raise some
+ important issues about how uncertainty relates to both adaptation
+ (e.g. indicators of adaptive capacity) and mitigation (e.g. energy
+ scenarios), as well as to how individuals perceive (e.g. risk and
+ uncertainty communication) and respond to (e.g. decision-making frameworks)
+ climate change uncertainty.
+
+ We have also included two invited editorial essays on the topic of
+ this special issue. The editorial by Moss (2007) makes an interesting
+ observation about the asymmetry between US public concern on the
+ issue of climate change (high) and public perception of scientific
+ “certainties†and consensus (low). He discusses the evolution of
+ the treatment of uncertainty in the IPCC and its importance in decision
+ making. Moss (2007) concludes by arguing for uncertainty analyses
+ that are decision focused, instead of being presented in a vacuum.
+ The editorial by Ha-Duong et al. (2007) discusses the history of
+ uncertainty management in IPCC assessments and examines why different
+ Working Groups have used different methods to assess and communicate
+ uncertainty. They argue that uncertainties related to human choice
+ explain why Working Group III of the IPCC (dealing with mitigation)
+ did not follow the IPCC “Guidance paper†on addressing uncertainties.
+ Ha-Duong et al. (2007) make a case for a multi-dimensional approach
+ to uncertainty communication in IPCC assessments.
+
+ In the first research paper of the special issue, Vincent (2007) examines
+ uncertainty in the concept of adaptive capacity with a particular
+ focus on the scale of the analysis, comparing a national level index
+ for cross-country comparison in Africa and a household index for
+ cross-household comparison in a village in South Africa. She shows
+ that the development of robust indicators are complicated by the
+ contextual nature of adaptive capacity, by considerations of timescale,
+ and by the difficulties of validation. Nevertheless, there is some
+ convergence among the central elements of such indices around notions
+ of institutional collective response and access to resources.
+
+ In relation to mitigation, Mander et al. (2007) use a backcasting
+ approach to explore the possibilities of energy pathways for meeting
+ the UK Government's 60% carbon emissions reduction target by 2050.
+ Their participatory scenario methodology allows for the identification
+ of key uncertainties using a formal typology which differentiates
+ between uncertainties due to ‘limited knowledge’ and those due to
+ ‘social variability’. The principal message in relation to uncertainty
+ is that making the transition to a low carbon energy system is more
+ securely achieved through a focus on a reduction in energy demand
+ than on an increase in low carbon supply.
+
+ Patt (2007) and Marx et al. (2007) examine different psychological
+ dimensions of uncertainty in climate change perception and communication.
+ Patt (2007) conducts an experimental study to compare the effects
+ on citizens of uncertainty that is quantified using models and uncertainty
+ that emerges from expert disagreement. This is an area that has been
+ overlooked by the IPCC and other assessment panels working under
+ a standard expected utility paradigm. Although the results of the
+ experiment were inconclusive, they were consistent with the psychological
+ and social models of decision making in which problem framing matters
+ and in which people are not assumed to optimize on the basis of probability
+ estimates. Patt (2007) concludes with some recommendations for the
+ IPCC and other assessment panels.
+
+ Using different case studies, Marx et al. (2007) examine how uncertainty
+ about climate information can best be communicated. They focus on
+ two ways in which people process information: analytically and experientially.
+ They draw heavily upon two projects: one that examines the impact
+ of vicarious, experiential information (as exemplified in the movie
+ The Day After Tomorrow) on climate change risk perception and policy;
+ and the other that looks at the comprehension of statistical information
+ through experiential retranslation by Ugandan farmers’ groups. Marx
+ et al. (2007) conclude that in order to best communicate climate
+ risks both analytic and experiential approaches need to be considered
+ through participatory decision making.
+
+ The last two papers consider the place of uncertainty in decision
+ making about adaptation to climate change. Dessai and Hulme (2007)
+ and Groves and Lempert (2007) develop analytic frameworks to assess
+ robust adaptation strategies under deep uncertainties. Dessai and
+ Hulme (2007) assess the robustness of an adaptation strategy—a company's
+ Water Resource Plan in the East of England—to a number of climate
+ change uncertainties. They find that adaptation decisions about future
+ water resource investments are sensitive to some uncertainties, but
+ that the water company plan remains robust overall because of the
+ sampling used, the adaptation options considered, and the climate
+ model used in planning. This reveals a mixture of both planned and
+ serendipitous factors in designing robust adaptation. Groves and
+ Lempert (2007) apply a robust decision-making approach (Lempert et
+ al., 2003 R.J. Lempert, S.W. Popper and S.C. Bankes, Shaping the
+ Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy
+ Analysis, RAND, Santa Monica, CA (2003).Lempert et al., 2003) to
+ identify policy relevant scenarios in the context of water resources
+ planning in California. The resulting scenarios can communicate quantitative
+ judgements about uncertainty, as well as support a well-defined decision
+ process without many of the drawbacks of approaches which take a
+ less structured view of uncertainty.
+
+ Climate is changing in response to human perturbations of the atmosphere
+ and future climate is uncertain—both because our scientific understanding
+ of the workings of the climate system remains incomplete and because
+ the evolution of future climate is (partly) contingent upon human
+ actions. This uncertainty about the course of future climate—on all
+ scales—and uncertainty about how societies will respond to this change
+ in climate presents new challenges for the way individuals, organizations
+ and societies make decisions. It also makes it difficult to design
+ effective, equitable and efficient policies which will achieve the
+ goals of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. It is our
+ hope that, as a collection, these papers will inspire a wider debate
+ about what uncertainty means for both mitigation and adaptation responses
+ to climate change.
+
+ We would like to thank the contributors and reviewers of the papers
+ of this special issue. Neil Jennings is thanked for all his help
+ in putting together this special issue.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.12.001},
+ tags = {Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@BOOK{deutsh2002,
+ title = {Encyclopedia of physical science and technologies},
+ publisher = {Academic Press},
+ year = {2002},
+ author = {Deutsch, C.},
+ volume = {6},
+ pages = {697--707},
+ edition = {Third},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.03.27}
+}
+
+@BOOK{deutsch1998,
+ title = {G{SLIB}: {G}eostatistical {S}oftware {L}ibrary and {U}ser's {G}uide},
+ publisher = {Oxford University Press},
+ year = {1998},
+ author = {Deutsch, C. and Journel, A.},
+ pages = {384},
+ address = {New York},
+ edition = {Second},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{DGA1996,
+ author = {DGA},
+ title = {Determinaci\'on de la disponibilidad de recursos h\'idricos para
+ constituir nuevos derechos de aprovechamiento de aguas subterr\'aneas
+ en el sector del acu\'ifero de la {Pampa del Tamarugal}},
+ institution = {{Direcci\'on General de Aguas}},
+ year = {1996},
+ type = {{S.D.T. Nr. 68}, 27 pp.},
+ address = {Santiago, Chile},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.04.07}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{DGAUchile1988,
+ author = {DGA},
+ title = {Modelo de simulaci\'on hidrogeol\'ogico de la {Pampa} del {Tamarugal}},
+ institution = {{Direcci\'on General de Aguas}},
+ year = {1988},
+ type = {98 pp.},
+ address = {Santiago, Chile},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{JICA1995,
+ author = {JICA-DGA-PCI},
+ title = {The study on the develpment of water resources in northern {C}hile.
+ {S}upporting report {B}: {G}eology and groundwater},
+ institution = {{Japanese International Cooperation Agency, Direcci\'on General de
+ Aguas, and Pacific Consultants International}},
+ year = {1995},
+ type = {216 pp.},
+ address = {Santiago, Chile},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{diluzio+al2004,
+ author = {Di Luzio, M. and Srinivasan, R. and Arnold, J.},
+ title = {A {GIS}-Coupled Hydrological Model System for the Watershed Assessment
+ of Agricultural Nonpoint and Point Sources of Pollution},
+ journal = {Transactions in GIS},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {8},
+ pages = {113-136},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {This paper introduces AVSWAT, a GIS based hydrological system linking
+ the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) water quality model and
+ ArcView" Geographic Information System software. The main purpose
+ of AVSWAT is the combined assess-ment of nonpoint and point pollution
+ loading at the watershed scale. The GIS component of the system,
+ in addition to the traditional functions of data acquisition, storage,
+ organization and display, implements advanced analytical methods
+ with enhanced flexibility to improve the hydrological characterization
+ of a study watershed. Intuitive user friendly graphic interfaces,
+ also part of the GIS component, have been developed to provide an
+ efficient interaction with the model and the associated parameter
+ databases, and ultimately to simplify water quality assessments,
+ while maintaining and increasing their reliability. This is also
+ supported by SWAT, the core of the system, a complex, conceptual,
+ hydrologic, continuous model with spatially e xplicit parameterization,
+ building upon the United State Department of Agriculture (USDA) modeling
+ experience. A step-by-step example application for a watershed in
+ Central Texas is also included to verify the capability and illustrate
+ some of the characteristics of the system which has been adopted
+ by many users around the world},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1467-9671.2004.00170.x},
+ keywords = {AVSWAT-X, SWAT},
+ tags = {SWAT}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{diaz-nietowilby2005,
+ author = {{Diaz-Nieto}, J. and Wilby, R.},
+ title = {{A comparison of statistical downscaling and climate change factor
+ methods: impacts on low flows in the River Thames, United Kingdom}},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {69},
+ pages = {245--268},
+ number = {2--3},
+ abstract = {Strategic-scale assessments of climate change impacts are often undertaken
+ using the change factor (CF) methodology whereby future changes in
+ climate projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs) are applied
+ to a baseline climatology. Alternatively, statistical downscaling
+ (SD) methods apply climate variables from GCMs to statistical transfer
+ functions to estimate point-scale meteorological series. This paper
+ explores the relative merits of the CF and SD methods using a case
+ study of low flows in the River Thames under baseline (1961–1990)
+ and climate change conditions (centred on the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s).
+ Archived model outputs for the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP02)
+ scenarios are used to generate daily precipitation and potential
+ evaporation (PE) for two climate change scenarios via the CF and
+ SD methods. Both signal substantial reductions in summer precipitation
+ accompanied by increased PE throughout the year, leading to reduced
+ flows in the Thames in late summer and autumn. However, changes in
+ flow associated with the SD scenarios are generally more conservative
+ and complex than that arising from CFs. These departures are explained
+ in terms of the different treatment of multidecadal natural variability,
+ temporal structuring of daily climate variables and large-scale forcing
+ of local precipitation and PE by the two downscaling methods.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10584-005-1157-6},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.07.05}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{dibikecoulibaly2005,
+ author = {Dibike, Y. and Coulibaly, P.},
+ title = {Hydrologic impact of climate change in the {S}aguenay watershed:
+ comparison of downscaling methods and hydrologic models},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {307},
+ pages = {145--163},
+ number = {1--4},
+ abstract = {Changes in global climate will have significant impact on local and
+ regional hydrological regimes, which will in turn affect ecological,
+ social and economical systems. However, climate-change impact studies
+ on hydrologic regime have been relatively rare until recently, mainly
+ because Global Circulation Models, which are widely used to simulate
+ future climate scenarios, do not provide hourly or daily rainfall
+ reliable enough for hydrological modeling. Nevertheless, more reliable
+ rainfall series corresponding to future climate scenarios can be
+ derived from GCM outputs using the so called ‘downscaling techniques’.
+ This study applies two types of statistical (a stochastic and a regression
+ based) downscaling techniques to generate the possible future values
+ of local meteorological variables such as precipitation and temperature
+ in the Chute-du-Diable sub-basin of the Saguenay watershed in northern
+ Qu{\'e}bec, Canada. The downscaled data is used as input to two different
+ hydrologic models to simulate the corresponding future flow regime
+ in the catchment. In addition to assessing the relative potential
+ of the downscaling methods, the paper also provides comparative study
+ results of the possible impact of climate change on river flow and
+ total reservoir inflow in the Chute-du-Diable basin. Although the
+ two downscaling techniques do not provide identical results, the
+ time series generated by both methods indicates a general increasing
+ trend in the mean daily temperature values. While the regression
+ based downscaling technique resulted in an increasing trend in the
+ mean and variability of daily precipitation values, such a trend
+ is not obvious in the case of precipitation time series downscaled
+ with the stochastic weather generator. Moreover, the hydrologic impact
+ analysis made with the downscaled precipitation and temperature time
+ series as input to the two hydrological models suggest an overall
+ increasing trend in mean annual river flow and reservoir inflow as
+ well as earlier spring peak flows in the basin},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.10.012},
+ tags = {Impacts, Downscaling}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{DICTUC2008,
+ author = {DICTUC},
+ title = {E{IA Proyecto Pampa Hermosa. Anexo VIII.2 Hidrogeolog\'ia}},
+ institution = {{Direcci\'on de Investigaciones Cient\'ificas y Tecnol\'ogicas Universidad
+ Cat\'olica de Chile}},
+ year = {2008},
+ type = {169 pp.},
+ address = {Santiago, Chile},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.04.07},
+ url = {https://www.e-seia.cl/expediente/expedientes.php?modo=ficha&id_expediente=3083858&idExpediente=3083858}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{DICTUC2007,
+ author = {DICTUC},
+ title = {E{IA Proyecto Pampa Hermosa. Anexo IX.1 Geolog\'ia del acu\'ifero
+ de la Pampa del Tamarugal}},
+ institution = {{Direcci\'on de Investigaciones Cient\'ificas y Tecnol\'ogicas Universidad
+ Cat\'olica de Chile}},
+ year = {2007},
+ type = {99 pp.},
+ address = {Santiago, Chile},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.04.07},
+ url = {https://www.e-seia.cl/expediente/expedientes.php?modo=ficha&id_expediente=3083858&idExpediente=3083858}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{DICTUC2005,
+ author = {DICTUC},
+ title = {An\'alisis t\'ecnico de solicitud de derechos de aprovechamiento
+ de {ACF Minera. Acu\'ifero Pampa del Tamarugal}},
+ institution = {{Direcci\'on de Investigaciones Cient\'ificas y Tecnol\'ogicas Universidad
+ Cat\'olica de Chile}},
+ year = {2005},
+ type = {107 pp.},
+ address = {Santiago, Chile},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.04.07}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{DICTUC1995,
+ author = {DICTUC},
+ title = {Evaluaci\'on del impacto del proyecto de extracci\'on de aguas subterr\'aneas
+ en la zona sur de la {Pampa del Tamarugal}},
+ institution = {{Direcci\'on de Investigaciones Cient\'ificas y Tecnol\'ogicas Universidad
+ Cat\'olica de Chile}},
+ year = {1995},
+ address = {Santiago, Chile},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.04.07}
+}
+
+@CONFERENCE{digert2003,
+ author = {Digert, F. and Hoke, G. and Jordan, T. and Isaaks, B.},
+ title = {Subsurface stratigraphy of the neogene {P}ampa del {T}amarugal basin,
+ northern {C}hile},
+ booktitle = {X Congreso Geol\'ogico Chileno},
+ year = {2003},
+ address = {Concepci\'on, Chile},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.04.08}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{diks2010,
+ author = {Diks, C. and Vrugt, J.},
+ title = {Comaprison of point forecast accuracy of model averaging methods
+ in hydrologic applications},
+ journal = {Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {24},
+ pages = {809--820},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {Multi-model averaging is currently receiving a surge of attention
+ in the atmospheric, hydrologic, and statistical literature to explicitly
+ handle conceptual model uncertainty in the analysis of environmental
+ systems and derive predictive distributions of model output. Such
+ density forecasts are necessary to help analyze which parts of the
+ model are well resolved, and which parts are subject to considerable
+ uncertainty. Yet, accurate point predictors are still desired in
+ many practical applications. In this paper, we compare a suite of
+ different model averaging techniques by their ability to improve
+ forecast accuracy of environmental systems. We compare equal weights
+ averaging (EWA), Bates-Granger model averaging (BGA), averaging using
+ Akaike’s information criterion (AICA), and Bayes’ Information Criterion
+ (BICA), Bayesian model averaging (BMA), Mallows model averaging (MMA),
+ and Granger-Ramanathan averaging (GRA) for two different hydrologic
+ systems involving water flow through a 1950 km2 watershed and 5 m
+ deep vadose zone. Averaging methods with weights restricted to the
+ multi-dimensional simplex (positive weights summing up to one) are
+ shown to have considerably larger forecast errors than approaches
+ with unconstrained weights. Whereas various sophisticated model averaging
+ approaches have recently emerged in the literature, our results convincingly
+ demonstrate the advantages of GRA for hydrologic applications. This
+ method achieves similar performance as MMA and BMA, but is much simpler
+ to implement and use, and computationally much less demanding.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00477-010-0378-z},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.10.23}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{dingman1965,
+ author = {Dingman, R. and Galli, C.},
+ title = {Geology and groundwater resources of the {P}ica area, {T}arapaca
+ {P}rovince, {C}hile},
+ institution = {U.S. Geological Survey},
+ year = {1965},
+ address = {Virginia, USA.},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.04.08}
+}
+
+@MANUAL{pest2010,
+ title = {P{EST}: {M}odel-independent parameter estimation. {U}ser manual:
+ 5th edition},
+ author = {Doherty, J.},
+ organization = {Watermark {N}umerical {C}omputing},
+ edition = {Fifth},
+ year = {2010},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.03.26}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{doherty2003,
+ author = {Doherty, J.},
+ title = {Ground water model calibration using pilot points and regularization},
+ journal = {Ground Water},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {41},
+ pages = {170--177},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {Use of nonlinear parameter estimation techniques is now commonplace
+ in ground water model calibration. However, there is still ample
+ room for further development of these techniques in order to enable
+ them to extract more information from calibration datasets, to more
+ thoroughly explore the uncertainty associated with model predictions,
+ and to make them easier to implement in various modeling contexts.
+ This paper describes the use of "pilot points" as a methodology for
+ spatial hydraulic property characterization. When used in conjunction
+ with nonlinear parameter estimation software that incorporates advanced
+ regularization functionality (such as PEST), use of pilot points
+ can add a great deal of flexibility to the calibration process at
+ the same time as it makes this process easier to implement. Pilot
+ points can be used either as a substitute for zones of piecewise
+ parameter uniformity, or in conjunction with such zones. In either
+ case, they allow the disposition of areas of high and low hydraulic
+ property value to be inferred through the calibration process, without
+ the need for the modeler to guess the geometry of such areas prior
+ to estimating the parameters that pertain to them. Pilot points and
+ regularization can also be used as an adjunct to geostatistically
+ based stochastic parameterization methods. Using the techniques described
+ herein, a series of hydraulic property fields can be generated, all
+ of which recognize the stochastic characterization of an area at
+ the same time that they satisfy the constraints imposed on hydraulic
+ property values by the need to ensure that model outputs match field
+ measurements. Model predictions can then be made using all of these
+ fields as a mechanism for exploring predictive uncertainty.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1745-6584.2003.tb02580.x},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{doherty2010,
+ author = {Doherty, J. and Welter, D.},
+ title = {A short exploration of structural noise},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {46},
+ pages = {1--14},
+ number = {W05525},
+ abstract = {“Structural noise†is a term often used to describe model?to?measurement
+ misfit that cannot be ascribed to measurement noise and therefore
+ must be ascribed to the imperfect nature of a numerical model as
+ a simulator of reality. As such, it is often the dominant contributor
+ to model?to?measurement misfit. As the name “structural noise†implies,
+ this type of misfit is often treated as an additive term to measurement
+ noise when assessing model parameter and predictive uncertainty.
+ This paper inquires into the nature of defect?induced model?to?measurement
+ misfit and provides a conceptual basis for accommodating it. It is
+ shown that inasmuch as defect?induced model?to?measurement misfit
+ can be characterized as “noise,†this noise is likely to show a high
+ degree of spatial and temporal correlation; furthermore, its covariance
+ matrix may approach singularity. However, the deleterious impact
+ of structural noise on the model calibration process may be mitigated
+ in a variety of ways. These include adoption of a highly parameterized
+ approach to model construction and calibration (including the strategic
+ use of compensatory parameters where appropriate), processing of
+ observations and their model?generated counterparts in ways that
+ are able to filter out structural noise prior to fitting one to the
+ other, and/or through implementation of a weighting strategy that
+ gives prominence to observations that most resemble predictions required
+ of a model.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2009WR008377},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.08.10}
+}
+
+@BOOK{dorigo2004,
+ title = {Ant colony optimization},
+ publisher = {MIT Press},
+ year = {2004},
+ author = {Dorigo, M. and Stutzle, T.},
+ address = {Cambridge (MA)},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.10.11}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{dorner+al2008,
+ author = {Dorner, W. and Porter, M. and Metzka, R.},
+ title = {Are floods in part a form of land use externality?},
+ journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Science},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {8},
+ pages = {523--532},
+ number = {3},
+ doi = {10.5194/nhess-8-523-2008}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{dosio2011,
+ author = {Dosio, A. and Paruolo, P.},
+ title = {{Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high resolution climate change
+ projections for use by impact models: evaluation on the present cimate}},
+ journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {116},
+ pages = {1--22},
+ number = {D16106},
+ abstract = {A statistical bias correction technique is applied to a set of high
+ resolution climate change simulations for Europe from state-of-the-art
+ regional climate models (RCMs) from the project ENSEMBLES. Modelled
+ and observed daily values of mean, minimum and maximum temperature
+ and total precipitation are used to construct transfer functions
+ for the period 1961-1990, which are then applied to the decade 1991-2000,
+ where the results are evaluated. By using a large ensembles of model
+ runs and a long construction period, we take into account both inter-model
+ variability, and longer (e.g. decadal) natural climate variability.
+ Results show that the technique performs successfully for all variables
+ over large part of the European continent, for all seasons. In particular,
+ the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of both temperature
+ and precipitation are greatly improved, especially in the tails,
+ i.e., increasing the capability of reproducing extreme events. When
+ the statistics of bias corrected results are ensemble-averaged, the
+ result is very close to the observed ones. The bias correction technique
+ is also able to improve statistics that depend strongly on the temporal
+ sequence of the original field, such as the number of consecutive
+ dry days and the total amount of precipitation in consecutive heavy
+ precipitation episodes, which are quantities that may have a large
+ influence on e.g. hydrological or crop impact models. Bias-corrected
+ projections of RCMs are hence found to be potentially useful for
+ the assessment of impacts of climate change over Europe.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2011JD015934},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.04.29}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{dosio+al2012,
+ author = {Dosio, A. and Paruolo, P. and Rojas, R.},
+ title = {{Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high resolution climate change
+ projections for use by impact models: analysis of the climate change
+ signal}},
+ journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
+ year = {2012},
+ volume = {in press},
+ doi = {10.1029/2012JD017968},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.07.30}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{DOV2008,
+ author = {DOV},
+ title = {Databank {O}ndergrond {V}laanderen},
+ year = {2008},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.11.18},
+ url = {http://dov.vlaanderen.be/dovweb/html/engels.html}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{draper1995,
+ author = {Draper, D.},
+ title = {Assessment and propagation of model uncertainty},
+ journal = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B},
+ year = {1995},
+ volume = {57},
+ pages = {45--97},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {In most examples of inference and prediction, the expression of uncertainty
+ about unknown quantities y on the basis of known quantities x is
+ based on a model M that formalizes assumptions about how x and y
+ are related. M will typically have two parts: structural assumptions
+ S, such as the form of the link function and the choice of error
+ distribution in a generalized linear model, and parameters 0 whose
+ meaning is specific to a given choice of S. It is common in statistical
+ theory and practice to acknowledge parametric uncertainty about 0
+ given a particular assumed structure S; it is less common to acknowledge
+ structural uncertainty about S itself. A widely used approach involves
+ enlisting the aid of x to specify a plausible single 'best' choice
+ S* for S, and then proceeding as if S* were known to be correct.
+ In general this approach fails to assess and propagate structural
+ uncertainty fully and may lead to miscalibrated uncertainty assessments
+ about y given x. When miscalibration occurs it will often result
+ in understatement of inferential or predictive uncertainty about
+ y, leading to inaccurate scientific summaries and overconfident decisions
+ that do not incorporate sufficient hedging against uncertainty. In
+ this paper I discuss a Bayesian approach to solving this problem
+ that has long been available in principle but is only now becoming
+ routinely feasible, by virtue of recent computational advances, and
+ examine its im- plementation in examples that involve forecasting
+ the price of oil and estimating the chance of catastrophic failure
+ of the US space shuttle.},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23},
+ url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2346087}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{driessen+al2010,
+ author = {Driessen, T. and Hurkmans, R. and Terink, W. and Hazenberg, P. and
+ Torfs, P. and Uijlenhoet, R.},
+ title = {The hydrological response of the {O}urthe catchment to climate change
+ as modelled by the {HBV} model},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {14},
+ pages = {651--665},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {The Meuse is an important river in Western Europe, which is almost
+ exclusively rain-fed. Projected changes in precipitation characteristics
+ due to climate change, therefore, are expected to have a considerable
+ effect on the hydrological regime of the river Meuse. We focus on
+ an important tributary of the Meuse, the Ourthe, measuring about
+ 1600 km2. The well-known hydrological model HBV is forced with three
+ high-resolution (0.088°) regional climate scenarios, each based on
+ one of three different IPCC CO2 emission scenarios: A1B, A2 and B1.
+ To represent the current climate, a reference model run at the same
+ resolution is used. Prior to running the hydrological model, the
+ biases in the climate model output are investigated and corrected
+ for. Different approaches to correct the distributed climate model
+ output using single-site observations are compared. Correcting the
+ spatially averaged temperature and precipitation is found to give
+ the best results, but still large differences exist between observations
+ and simulations. The bias corrected data are then used to force HBV.
+ Results indicate a small increase in overall discharge, especially
+ for the B1 scenario during the beginning of the 21st century. Towards
+ the end of the century, all scenarios show a decrease in summer discharge,
+ partially because of the diminished buffering effect by the snow
+ pack, and an increased discharge in winter. It should be stressed,
+ however, that we used results from only one GCM (the only one available
+ at such a high resolution). It would be interesting to repeat the
+ analysis with multiple models.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-14-651-2010},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.21}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{drogue+al2004,
+ author = {Drogue, G. and Pfister, L. and Leviandier, T. and {El Idrissi}, A.
+ and Iffly, {J.-F.} and Matgen, P. and Humbert, J. and Hoffmann, L.},
+ title = {Simulating the spatio-temporal variability of streamflow response
+ to climate change scenarios in a mesoscale basin},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {293},
+ pages = {255--269},
+ number = {1--4},
+ abstract = {A continuous rainfall-runoff simulation was performed to assess the
+ potential effect of climate changes on the streamflow regimes and
+ water resources of tributaries of the Alzette river basin extending
+ over 1176 km(2), mainly in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg. characterized
+ by various hydrological patterns. Global climate change scenarios
+ for the 2050 horizon, based on GCM projections from the KNMI and
+ UKHI synoptic runs, were disaggregated into mesoscale daily PET and
+ rainfall series. Seasonal expected PET changes were proportionally
+ applied to present daily values, whereas future hyetographs were
+ empirically constructed according to observed trends in rainfall
+ time series for the study area. The various ways of applying the
+ mesoscale rainfall scenarios exert a significant influence on the
+ magnitude and spatial distribution of streamflow responses. The comparison
+ of future and present hydrographs also shows that the impact of mesoscale
+ climate change is extremely variable with regard to the considered
+ hydrological variable. The spatial variability of streamflow responses
+ is largely conditioned by climatic and physiographical characteristics
+ of the sub-basins. The winter period is most affected by altered
+ climate conditions and some sub-re ions appear to be particularly
+ sensitive in terms of changes in low or high flows. (C) 2004 Elsevier
+ B.V. All rights reserved.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.02.009},
+ keywords = {climate change, mesoscale variability, rainfall scenario, streamflow
+ modeling, Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, LAND-USE, RUNOFF, PRECIPITATION},
+ tags = {Impacts}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{DSM2002,
+ author = {{DSM}},
+ title = {E{staci\'on Cerro Gordo. Modelo de flujo num\'erico de aguas subterr\'aneas}},
+ institution = {{DSM Minera S.A.}},
+ year = {2002},
+ type = {70 pp.},
+ address = {Santiago, Chile},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.04.07}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{duan2007,
+ author = {Duan, Q. and Ajami, N. and Gao, X. and Sorooshian, S.},
+ title = {Multi--model ensemble hydrologic prediction using {B}ayesian model
+ averaging},
+ journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {30},
+ pages = {1371--1386},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {Multi-model ensemble strategy is a means to exploit the diversity
+ of skillful predictions from different models. This paper studies
+ the use of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) scheme to develop more
+ skillful and reliable probabilistic hydrologic predictions from multiple
+ competing predictions made by several hydrologic models. BMA is a
+ statistical procedure that infers consensus predictions by weighing
+ individual predictions based on their probabilistic likelihood measures,
+ with the better performing predictions receiving higher weights than
+ the worse performing ones. Furthermore, BMA provides a more reliable
+ description of the total predictive uncertainty than the original
+ ensemble, leading to a sharper and better calibrated probability
+ density function (PDF) for the probabilistic predictions. In this
+ study, a nine-member ensemble of hydrologic predictions was used
+ to test and evaluate the BMA scheme. This ensemble was generated
+ by calibrating three different hydrologic models using three distinct
+ objective functions. These objective functions were chosen in a way
+ that forces the models to capture certain aspects of the hydrograph
+ well (e.g., peaks, mid-flows and low flows). Two sets of numerical
+ experiments were carried out on three test basins in the US to explore
+ the best way of using the BMA scheme. In the first set, a single
+ set of BMA weights was computed to obtain BMA predictions, while
+ the second set employed multiple sets of weights, with distinct sets
+ corresponding to different flow intervals. In both sets, the streamflow
+ values were transformed using Box–Cox transformation to ensure that
+ the probability distribution of the prediction errors is approximately
+ Gaussian. A split sample approach was used to obtain and validate
+ the BMA predictions. The test results showed that BMA scheme has
+ the advantage of generating more skillful and equally reliable probabilistic
+ predictions than original ensemble. The performance of the expected
+ BMA predictions in terms of daily root mean square error (DRMS) and
+ daily absolute mean error (DABS) is generally superior to that of
+ the best individual predictions. Furthermore, the BMA predictions
+ employing multiple sets of weights are generally better than those
+ using single set of weights.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.advwatres.2006.11.014},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.12.08}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{duan+al1992,
+ author = {Duan, Q. and Sorooshian, S. and Gupta, H.},
+ title = {Effective and efficient global optimization for conceptual ranfall--runoff
+ models},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1992},
+ volume = {28},
+ pages = {1015--1031},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {The successful application of a conceptual rainfall-runoff (CRR) model
+ depends on how well it is calibrated. Despite the popularity of CRR
+ models, reports in the literature indicate that it is typically difficult,
+ if not impossible, to obtain unique optimal values for their parameters
+ using automatic calibration methods. Unless the best set of parameters
+ associated with a given calibration data set can be found, it is
+ difficult to determine how sensitive the parameter estimates (and
+ hence the model forecasts) are to factors such as input and output
+ data error, model error, quantity and quality of data, objective
+ function used, and so on. Results are presented that establish clearly
+ the nature of the multiple optima problem for the research CRR model
+ SIXPAR. These results suggest that the CRR model optimization problem
+ is more difficult than had been previously thought and that currently
+ used local search procedures have a very low probability of successfully
+ finding the optimal parameter sets. Next, the performance of three
+ existing global search procedures are evaluated on the model SIXPAR.
+ Finally, a powerful new global optimization procedure is presented,
+ entitled the shuffled complex evolution (SCE-UA) method, which was
+ able to consistently locate the global optimum of the SIXPAR model,
+ and appears to be capable of efficiently and effectively solving
+ the CRR model optimization problem.},
+ doi = {10.1029/91WR02985},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.06.21}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{duan+al1994,
+ author = {Duan, Q. and Sorooshian, S. and Gupta, V.},
+ title = {Optimal Use Of The {SCE-UA} Global Optimization Method For Calibrating
+ Watershed Models},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {1994},
+ volume = {158},
+ pages = {265--284},
+ note = {Gives recommended values for the use of the SCE-UA algorithm:},
+ abstract = {The difficulties involved in calibrating conceptual watershed models
+ have, in the past, been partly attributable to the lack of robust
+ optimization tools. Recently, a global optimization method known
+ as the SCE-UA (shuffled complex evolution method developed at The
+ University of Arizona) has shown promise as an effective and efficient
+ optimization technique for calibrating watershed models. Experience
+ with the method has indicated that the effectiveness and efficiency
+ of the algorithm are influenced by the choice of the algorithmic
+ parameters. This paper first reviews the essential concepts of the
+ SCE-UA method and then presents the results of several experimental
+ studies in which the National Weather Service river forecast system-soil
+ moisture accounting (NWSRFS-SMA) model, used by the National Weather
+ Service for river and flood forecasting, was calibrated using different
+ algorithmic parameter setups. On the basis of these results, the
+ recommended values for the algorithmic parameters are given. These
+ values should also help to provide guidelines for other users of
+ the SCE-UA method.},
+ doi = {10.1016/0022-1694(94)90057-4},
+ keywords = {RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS, IMPROVED PARAMETER INFERENCE, CATCHMENT MODELS,
+ SEARCH, ERRORS},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{dunkley2005,
+ author = {Dunkley, J. and Bucher, M. and Ferreira, P. and Moodley, K. and Skordis,
+ C.},
+ title = {Fast and reliabe {MCMC} for cosmological parameter estimation},
+ journal = {Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {356},
+ pages = {925--936},
+ abstract = {Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques are now widely used for
+ cosmological parameter estimation. Chains are generated to sample
+ the posterior probability distribution obtained following the Bayesian
+ approach. An important issue is how to optimize the efficiency of
+ such sampling and how to diagnose whether a finite-length chain has
+ adequately sampled the underlying posterior probability distribution.
+ We show how the power spectrum of a single such finite chain may
+ be used as a convergence diagnostic by means of a fitting function,
+ and discuss strategies for optimizing the distribution for the proposed
+ steps. The methods developed are applied to current CMB and LSS data
+ interpreted using both a pure adiabatic cosmological model and a
+ mixed adiabatic/isocurvature cosmological model including possible
+ correlations between modes. For the latter application, because of
+ the increased dimensionality and the presence of degeneracies, the
+ need for tuning MCMC methods for maximum efficiency becomes particularly
+ acute.},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.07.16},
+ url = {http://www.citebase.org/abstract?id=oai:arXiv.org:astro-ph/0405462}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{durman+al2001,
+ author = {Durman, C. and Gregory, J. and Kassell, D. and Jones, R. and Murphy,
+ J.},
+ title = {A comparison of extreme {E}uropean daily precipitation simulated
+ by a global and a regional climate model for present and future climates},
+ journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {127},
+ pages = {1005--1015},
+ number = {573},
+ abstract = {The intensity and distribution of daily precipitation is predicted
+ to change under scenarios of increased greenhouse gases (GHGs). In
+ this paper, we analyse the ability of HadCM2, a general circulation
+ model (GCM), and a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM),
+ both developed at the Met Office's Hadley Centre, to simulate extreme
+ daily precipitation by reference to observations. A detailed analysis
+ of daily precipitation is made at two UK grid boxes, where probabilities
+ of reaching daily thresholds in the GCM and RCM are compared with
+ observations. We find that the RCM generally overpredicts probabilities
+ of extreme daily precipitation but that, when the GCM and RCM simulated
+ values are scaled to have the same mean as the observations, the
+ RCM captures the upper-tail distribution more realistically. To compare
+ regional changes in daily precipitation in the GHG-forced period
+ 2080-2100 in the GCM and the RCM, we develop two methods. The first
+ considers the fractional changes in probability of local daily precipitation
+ reaching or exceeding a fixed 15 mm threshold in the anomaly climate
+ compared with the control. The second method uses the upper one-percentile
+ of the control at each point as the threshold. Agreement between
+ the models is better in both seasons with the latter method, which
+ we suggest may be more useful when considering larger scale spatial
+ changes. On average, the probability of precipitation exceeding the
+ 1% threshold increases by a factor of 2.5 (GCM and RCM) in winter
+ and by 1.7 (GCM) or 1.3 (RCM) in summer.},
+ doi = {10.1002/qj.49712757316},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.07.29}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{dvorak+al1997,
+ author = {Dvorak, V. and Hladny, J. and Kasparek, L.},
+ title = {Climate change impacts and water resources impact and adaptation
+ for selected river basins in the {Czech Republic}},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {1997},
+ volume = {36},
+ pages = {93--106},
+ number = {1--2},
+ abstract = {The Czech Republic has a northern hemisphere Atlantic-continental
+ type of moderate climate. Mean annual temperature ranges between
+ 1.0 and 9.4 °C (between 8.8 and 18.5 °C in summer and between –6.8
+ and 0.2 °C in winter). Annual precipitation ranges between 450 mm
+ in dry regions and 1300 mm in mountainous regions of the country.
+ With its 2000 m3 per capita fresh water availability, the Czech Republic
+ is slightly below average. Occasional water shortages do not usually
+ result from general unavailability of water resources but rather
+ from time or space variability of water supply/demand and high degree
+ of water resources exploitation. To study potential impacts of climate
+ change on hydrological system and water resources, four river basins
+ have been selected in the territory of the Czech Republic: the Elbe
+ River at Decin (50761.7 km2), the Zelivka River at Soutice (1188.6
+ km2), the Upa River at Ceska Skalice (460.7 km2) and the Metuje River
+ at Marsov n. M. (93.9 km2). To simulate potential changes in runoff,
+ three hydrological models have been applied using incremental and
+ GCM (GISS, GFDL and CCCM) scenarios: the BILAN water balance model,
+ the SACRAMENTO (SAC-SMA) conceptual model and the CLIRUN water balance
+ model. The paper reviews methods applied in the study, results of
+ the assessments and concludes with suggestions for possible general
+ adaptation policy options where the preference is for nonstructural
+ measures such as water conservation, efficient water demand management
+ and protection of water resources.},
+ doi = {10.1023/A:1005384120954},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.08.05}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{dynesius1994,
+ author = {Dynesius, M. and Nilsson, C.},
+ title = {Fragmentation and flow regulation of river systems in the northern
+ third of the world},
+ journal = {Science},
+ year = {1994},
+ volume = {266},
+ pages = {753--762},
+ number = {5186},
+ abstract = {Seventy-seven percent of the total water discharge of the 139 largest
+ river systems in North America north of Mexico, in Europe, and in
+ the republics of the former Soviet Union is strongly or moderately
+ affected by fragmentation of the river channels by dams and by water
+ regulation resulting from reservoir operation, interbasin diversion,
+ and irrigation. The remaining free-flowing large river systems are
+ relatively small and nearly all situated in the far north, as are
+ the 59 medium-sized river systems of Norway, Sweden, Finland, and
+ Denmark. These conditions indicate that many types of river ecosystems
+ have been lost and that the populations of many riverine species
+ have become highly fragmented. To improve the conservation of biodiversity
+ and the sustainable use of biological resources, immediate action
+ is called for to create an international preservation network of
+ free-flowing river systems and to rehabilitate exploited rivers in
+ areas that lack unaffected watercourses.},
+ doi = {10.1126/science.266.5186.753},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.02.02}
+}
+
+@INPROCEEDINGS{eberhartkennedy1995,
+ author = {Eberhart, R. and Kennedy, J.},
+ title = {A new optimizer using particle swarm theory},
+ booktitle = {Micro Machine and Human Science, 1995. MHS {'}95., Proceedings of
+ the Sixth International Symposium on},
+ year = {1995},
+ pages = {39--43},
+ month = {oct},
+ abstract = {The optimization of nonlinear functions using particle swarm methodology
+ is described. Implementations of two paradigms are discussed and
+ compared, including a recently developed locally oriented paradigm.
+ Benchmark testing of both paradigms is described, and applications,
+ including neural network training and robot task learning, are proposed.
+ Relationships between particle swarm optimization and both artificial
+ life and evolutionary computation are reviewed},
+ doi = {10.1109/MHS.1995.494215},
+ keywords = {artificial life, benchmark testing, bird flocks, evolutionary computation,
+ gbest, genetic algorithms, globally oriented concept, hyperspace,
+ lbest, locally oriented paradigm, multilayer perceptron, neural network
+ training, nonlinear functions, optimization, particle swarm theory,
+ pbest, robot task learning, algorithm theory, feedforward neural
+ nets, genetic algorithms, intelligent control, learning (artificial
+ intelligence), multilayer perceptrons, optimisation},
+ tags = {Calibration, PSO}
+}
+
+@INCOLLECTION{eberhartshi1998,
+ author = {Eberhart, R. and Shi, Y.},
+ title = {Comparison between genetic algorithms and particle swarm optimization},
+ booktitle = {Evolutionary Programming VII},
+ publisher = {Springer Berlin / Heidelberg},
+ year = {1998},
+ editor = {V. Porto and N. Saravanan and D. Waagen and A. Eiben},
+ volume = {1447},
+ pages = {611--616},
+ abstract = {This paper compares two evolutionary computation paradigms: genetic
+ algorithms and particle swarm optimization. The operators of each
+ paradigm are reviewed, focusing on how each affects search behavior
+ in the problem space. The goals of the paper are to provide additional
+ insights into how each paradigm works, and to suggest ways in which
+ performance might be improved by incorporating features from one
+ paradigm into the other. },
+ doi = {10.1007/BFb0040812},
+ tags = {PSO, Calibration}
+}
+
+@INPROCEEDINGS{eberhartshi2001,
+ author = {Eberhart, R. and Shi, Y.},
+ title = {Particle swarm optimization: developments, applications and resources},
+ booktitle = {Proceedings of the 2001 Congress on Evolutionary Computation},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {1},
+ pages = {81--86},
+ abstract = {This paper focuses on the engineering and computer science aspects
+ of developments, applications, and resources related to particle
+ swarm optimization. Developments in the particle swarm algorithm
+ since its origin in 1995 are reviewed. Included are brief discussions
+ of constriction factors, inertia weights, and tracking dynamic systems.
+ Applications, both those already developed, and promising future
+ application areas, are reviewed. Finally, resources related to particle
+ swarm optimization are listed, including books, Web sites, and software.
+ A particle swarm optimization bibliography is at the end of the pape},
+ doi = {10.1109/CEC.2001.934374},
+ tags = {PSO}
+}
+
+@INPROCEEDINGS{eberhartshi2000,
+ author = {Eberhart, R. and Shi, Y.},
+ title = {Comparing inertia weights and constriction factors in particle swarm
+ optimization},
+ booktitle = {Evolutionary Computation, 2000. Proceedings of the 2000 Congress
+ on},
+ year = {2000},
+ volume = {1},
+ pages = {84--88},
+ abstract = {The performance of particle swarm optimization using an inertia weight
+ is compared with performance using a constriction factor. Five benchmark
+ functions are used for the comparison. It is concluded that the best
+ approach is to use the constriction factor while limiting the maximum
+ velocity Vmax to the dynamic range of the variable Xmax on each dimension.
+ This approach provides performance on the benchmark functions superior
+ to any other published results known by the authors},
+ doi = {10.1109/CEC.2000.870279},
+ keywords = {benchmark functions, constriction factors, inertia weights, particle
+ swarm optimization, evolutionary computation},
+ tags = {Calibration, PSO}
+}
+
+@BOOK{eberhart+al1996,
+ title = {Computational {I}ntelligence {PC} {T}ools},
+ publisher = {Academic Press Professional, Inc.},
+ year = {1996},
+ author = {Eberhart, R. and Simpson, P. and Dobbins, R.},
+ address = {San Diego, CA, USA},
+ isbn = {0-12-228630-8},
+ tags = {Calibration, PSO}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{ebtehaj+al2010,
+ author = {Ebtehaj, M. and Moradkhani, H. and Gupta, H.},
+ title = {Improving robustness of hydrologic parameter estimation by the use
+ of moving block bootstrap resampling},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {46},
+ pages = {W07515},
+ abstract = {Modeling of natural systems typically involves conceptualization and
+ parameterization to simplify the representations of the underlying
+ process. Objective methods for estimation of the model parameters
+ then require optimization of a cost function, representing a measure
+ of distance between the observations and the corresponding model
+ predictions, typically by calibration in a static batch mode and/or
+ via some dynamic recursive optimization approach. Recently, there
+ has been a focus on the development of parameter estimation methods
+ that appropriately account for different sources of uncertainty.
+ In this context, we introduce an approach to sample the optimal parameter
+ space that uses nonparametric block bootstrapping coupled with global
+ optimization. We demonstrate the applicability of this procedure
+ via a case study, in which we estimate the parameter uncertainty
+ resulting from uncertainty in the forcing data and evaluate its impacts
+ on the resulting streamflow simulations. },
+ doi = {10.1029/2009WR007981},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{eckhardtarnold2001,
+ author = {Eckhardt, K. and Arnold, J.},
+ title = {Automatic calibration of a distributed catchment model},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {251},
+ pages = {103--109},
+ number = {1-2},
+ abstract = {Parameters of hydrologic models often are not exactly known and therefore
+ have to be determined by calibration. A manual calibration depends
+ on the subjective assessment of the modeler and can be very time-consuming
+ though. Methods of automatic calibration can improve these shortcomings.
+ Yet, the high number of parameters in distributed models makes special
+ demands on the optimization. In this paper a strategy of imposing
+ constraints on the parameters to limit the number of independently
+ calibrated values is outlined. Subsequently, an automatic calibration
+ of the version SWAT-G of the model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment
+ Tool) with a stochastic global optimization algorithm, the Shuffled
+ Complex Evolution algorithm. is presented for a mesoscale catchment.
+ (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00429-2},
+ keywords = {distributed models, calibration, parameter estimation, SWAT, SCE-UA,
+ RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS, GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION},
+ tags = {SWAT, Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{eckhardt+al2005,
+ author = {Eckhardt, K. and Fohrer, N. and Frede, {Hans-Georg}},
+ title = {Automatic model calibration},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {19},
+ pages = {651--658},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {Model calibration allows reducing parameter uncertainty and, therefore,
+ uncertainty in simulation results. In the present study, automatic
+ model calibration with the shuffled complex evolution algorithm is
+ demonstrated using the example of the distributed conceptual model
+ SWAT-G, a derivative of the Soil and Water Assessment Toot (SWAT).
+ The special challenge in calibrating SWAT is that it describes many
+ physical processes and therefore is highly parameterized. Moreover,
+ as SWAT or SWAT-G, respectively, is a distributed model, the parameters
+ may take on different values in different spatial subunits of a catchment
+ model. A strategy of imposing constraints on the parameters to limit
+ the number of independently calibrated values is outlined and applied
+ to the model of a mesoscale low mountain range catchment. Copyright
+ (C) 2005 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.5613},
+ keywords = {distributed models, calibration, parameter estimation, SWAT, SOIL},
+ tags = {SWAT, Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{eckhardt+al2002,
+ author = {Eckhardt, K. and Haverkamp, S. and Fohrer, N. and Frede, {Hans-Georg}},
+ title = {{SWAT-G}, a version of {SWAT99}.2 modified for application to low
+ mountain range catchments},
+ journal = {Physics and Chemistry of the Earth},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {27},
+ pages = {641--644},
+ number = {9-10},
+ abstract = {The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a well established distributed
+ eco-hydrologic model. However, using the example of a mesoscale catchment
+ in Germany it is shown that the version SWAT99.2 is not able to correctly
+ reproduce the runoff generation in a low mountain region. The calculated
+ contribution of the baseflow to the streamflow is far too high whereas
+ the interflow is strongly underestimated. Alternatively, the modified
+ version SWAT-G can be used which, as is demonstrated in this paper,
+ yields far better results for catchments with predominantly steep
+ slopes and shallow soils over hard rock aquifers. In the example,
+ calibrating the model over three hydrologic years of daily streamflow,
+ the model efficiency increases from -0.17 to +0.76. The modifications
+ in SWAT-G allow hydrological processes to be modelled in low mountain
+ ranges while not restraining the applicability of the model to catchments
+ with other characteristics. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights
+ reserved.},
+ doi = {S1474-7065(02)00048-7},
+ keywords = {distributed models, model verification, SWAT, MODEL, CALIBRATION},
+ tags = {SWAT}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{EC2007,
+ author = {{EC}},
+ title = {{Addressing the challenge of water scarcity and droughts in the European
+ Union}},
+ institution = {{Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and
+ the Council}},
+ year = {2007},
+ number = {Com(2007) 0414 final},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.06.26}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{corine2000,
+ author = {EEA},
+ title = {Corine Land Cover 2000},
+ institution = {European Commission, European Environment Agency (EEA)},
+ year = {2002},
+ number = {89},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.08.17},
+ url = {http://dataservice.eea.europa.eu/}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{efstratiadiskoutsoyiannis2010,
+ author = {Efstratiadis, A. and Koutsoyiannis, D.},
+ title = {One decade of multi-objective calibration approaches in hydrological
+ modelling: a review},
+ journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {55},
+ pages = {58--78},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {One decade after the first publications on multi-objective calibration
+ of hydrological models, we summarize the experience gained so far
+ by underlining the key perspectives offered by such approaches to
+ improve parameter identification. After reviewing the fundamentals
+ of vector optimization theory and the algorithmic issues, we link
+ the multi-criteria calibration approach with the concepts of uncertainty
+ and equifinality. Specifically, the multi-criteria framework enables
+ recognition and handling of errors and uncertainties, and detection
+ of prominent behavioural solutions with acceptable trade-offs. Particularly
+ in models of complex parameterization, a multi-objective approach
+ becomes essential for improving the identifiability of parameters
+ and augmenting the information contained in calibration by means
+ of both multi-response measurements and empirical metrics ({``}soft{''}
+ data), which account for the hydrological expertise. Based on the
+ literature review, we also provide alternative techniques for dealing
+ with conflicting and non-commeasurable criteria, and hybrid strategies
+ to utilize the information gained towards identifying promising compromise
+ solutions that ensure consistent and reliable calibrations. },
+ doi = {10.1080/02626660903526292},
+ keywords = {multi-objective evolutionary algorithms, multiple responses, uncertainty,
+ equifinality, hybrid calibration, soft data },
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{ehretzehe2011,
+ author = {Ehret, U. and Zehe, E.},
+ title = {Series distance - an intuitive metric to quantify hydrograph similarity
+ in terms of occurrence, amplitude and timing of hydrological events},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {15},
+ pages = {877--896},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {Applying metrics to quantify the similarity or dissimilarity of hydrographs
+ is a central task in hydrological modelling, used both in model calibration
+ and the evaluation of simulations or forecasts. Motivated by the
+ shortcomings of standard objective metrics such as the Root Mean
+ Square Error (RMSE) or the Mean Absolute Peak Time Error (MAPTE)
+ and the advantages of visual inspection as a powerful tool for simultaneous,
+ case-specific and multi-criteria (yet subjective) evaluation, we
+ propose a new objective metric termed Series Distance, which is in
+ close accordance with visual evaluation. The Series Distance quantifies
+ the similarity of two hydrographs neither in a time-aggregated nor
+ in a point-by-point manner, but on the scale of hydrological events.
+ It consists of three parts, namely a Threat Score which evaluates
+ overall agreement of event occurrence, and the overall distance of
+ matching observed and simulated events with respect to amplitude
+ and timing. The novelty of the latter two is the way in which matching
+ point pairs on the observed and simulated hydrographs are identified:
+ not by equality in time (as is the case with the RMSE), but by the
+ same relative position in matching segments (rise or recession) of
+ the event, indicating the same underlying hydrological process. Thus,
+ amplitude and timing errors are calculated simultaneously but separately,
+ from point pairs that also match visually, considering complete events
+ rather than only individual points (as is the case with MAPTE). Relative
+ weights can freely be assigned to each component of the Series Distance,
+ which allows (subjective) customization of the metric to various
+ fields of application, but in a traceable way. Each of the three
+ components of the Series Distance can be used in an aggregated or
+ non-aggregated way, which makes the Series Distance a suitable tool
+ for differentiated, process-based model diagnostics. After discussing
+ the applicability of established time series metrics for hydrographs,
+ we present the Series Distance theory, discuss its properties and
+ compare it to those of standard metrics used in Hydrology, both at
+ the example of simple, artificial hydrographs and an ensemble of
+ realistic forecasts. The results suggest that the Series Distance
+ quantifies the degree of similarity of two hydrographs in a way comparable
+ to visual inspection, but in an objective, reproducible way.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-15-877-2011},
+ tags = {Regionalization, Goodness-of-Fit}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{el-nasr+al2005,
+ author = {{El-Nasr}, A. and Arnold, J. and Feyen, J. and Berlamont, J.},
+ title = {Modelling the hydrology of a catchment using a distributed and a
+ semi-distributed model},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {19},
+ pages = {573--587},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {Various hydrological models exist that describe the phases in the
+ hydrologic cycle either in an empirical, semi-mechanistic or fully
+ mechanistic way. The way and level of detail for the different processes
+ of the hydrologic cycle that needs to be described depends on the
+ objective, the application and the availability of data. In this
+ study the performance of two different models, the fully distributed
+ MIKE SHE model and the semi-distributed SWAT model, was assessed.
+ The aim of the comparative study was to examine if both models are
+ equally able to describe the different phases in the hydrologic cycle
+ of a catchment, given the availability of hydrologic data in the
+ catchment. For the comparison, historic data of the Jeker river basin,
+ situated in the loamy belt region of Belgium, was used. The size
+ of the catchment is 465 km2. The landscape is rolling, the dominant
+ land use is farmland, and the soils vary from sandy-loam to clay-loam.
+ The daily data of a continuous period of 6 years were used for the
+ calibration and validation of both models. The results were obtained
+ by comparing the performance of the two models using a qualitative
+ (graphical) and quantitative (statistical) assessment, such as graphical
+ representation of the observed and simulated river discharge, performance
+ indices, the hydrograph maxima, the baseflow minima, the total accumulated
+ volumes and the extreme value distribution of river flow data. The
+ analysis revealed that both models are able to simulate the hydrology
+ of the catchment in an acceptable way. The calibration results of
+ the two tested models, although they differ in concept and spatial
+ distribution, are quite similar. However, the MIKE SHE model predicts
+ slightly better the overall variation of the river flow},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.5610},
+ keywords = {hydrology, semi- and fully distributed model, performance indices,
+ SWAT, MIKE SHE},
+ tags = {SWAT, Goodness-of-Fit, conceptual model}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{engeland+al2006,
+ author = {Engeland, K. and Braud, I. and Gottschalk, L. and Leblois, E.},
+ title = {Multi-objective regional modelling},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {327},
+ pages = {339--351},
+ number = {3-4},
+ abstract = {Regional rainfall runoff models are used to estimate the hydrological
+ dynamics, the water balance, and the statistics of hydrological variables
+ at ungauged sites. Most hydrological models are calibrated in order
+ to get a good fit between observed and simulated variables. One or
+ several objectives might be used for the calibration, and the modelling
+ uncertainty is seen in at least two phenomena: (1) The surface defined
+ by a objective function is often non-smooth, multi-modal and even
+ discontinuous. (2) Different objectives prefer different parameter
+ sets. The aim of this study is to obtain regional parameter sets
+ for the Ecomag model applied to the Saone catchment, and to assess
+ the modelling uncertainty based on the trade-offs between the Reff
+ criterion for daily streamflows in different catchments. This aim
+ was achieved by applying a multi-objective calibration method with
+ streamflow data from seven catchments as the objectives. A Pareto-set
+ with 2330 parameter values were obtained. The 2330 parameter sets
+ were used to obtain envelopes for the simulated streamflow. The results
+ show that all the parameters might be considered as sensitive to
+ the output results, that the trade-off uncertainty between the different
+ catchments is important, and that this uncertainty can only explain
+ parts of the complex uncertainties in catchment modelling. There
+ is a need for finding new concepts describing the complex uncertainties
+ in catchment models operating on daily time step},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.11.022},
+ keywords = {Rainfall runoff modelling, Distributed hydrological models, Regionalisation,
+ Ungauged catchments, Parameter uncertainty, Multiple objectives},
+ tags = {Calibration, Large Scale}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{engeland2002,
+ author = {Engeland, K. and Gottschalk, L.},
+ title = {Bayesian estimation of parameters in a regional hydrological model},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {6},
+ pages = {883--898},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {This study evaluates the applicability of the distributed, process-oriented
+ Ecomag model for prediction of daily streamflow in ungauged basins.
+ The Ecomag model is applied as a regional model to nine catchments
+ in the NOPEX area, using Bayesian statistics to estimate the posterior
+ distribution of the model parameters conditioned on the observed
+ streamflow. The distribution is calculated by Markov Chain Monte
+ Carlo (MCMC) analysis. The Bayesian method requires formulation of
+ a likelihood function for the parameters and three alternative formulations
+ are used. The first is a subjectively chosen objective function that
+ describes the goodness of fit between the simulated and observed
+ streamflow, as defined in the GLUE framework. The second and third
+ formulations are more statistically correct likelihood models that
+ describe the simulation errors. The full statistical likelihood model
+ describes the simulation errors as an AR(1) process, whereas the
+ simple model excludes the auto-regressive part. The statistical parameters
+ depend on the catchments and the hydrological processes and the statistical
+ and the hydrological parameters are estimated simultaneously. The
+ results show that the simple likelihood model gives the most robust
+ parameter estimates. The simulation error may be explained to a large
+ extent by the catchment characteristics and climatic conditions,
+ so it is possible to transfer knowledge about them to ungauged catchments.
+ The statistical models for the simulation errors indicate that structural
+ errors in the model are more important than parameter uncertainties.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-6-883-2002},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{engen2007,
+ author = {{Engen-Skaugen}, T.},
+ title = {Refinement of dynamically downscaled precipitation and temperature
+ scenarios},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {84},
+ pages = {365--382},
+ number = {3--4},
+ abstract = {A method for adjusting dynamically downscaled precipitation and temperature
+ scenarios representing specific sites is presented. The method reproduces
+ mean monthly values and standard deviations based on daily observations.
+ The trend obtained in the regional climate model both for temperature
+ and precipitation is maintained, and the frequency of modelled and
+ observed rainy days shows better agreement. Thus, the method is appropriate
+ for tailoring dynamically downscaled temperature and precipitation
+ values for climate change impact studies. One precipitation and temperature
+ scenario dynamically downscaled with HIRHAM from the Atmospheric-Ocean
+ General Circulation Model at the Max-Planck Institute in Hamburg,
+ ECHAM4/OPYC4 GSDIO with emission scenario IS92a, is chosen to illustrate
+ the adjustment method.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10584-007-9251-6},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.07.29}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{watch40-2011,
+ author = {Estifanos, S. and {van Huijgevoort}, M. and Hazenberg, P. and Weedon,
+ G. and Bertrand, N. and Folwell, S. and Gomes, S. and Vo{\ss}, F.
+ and {van Lanen}, H.},
+ title = {{Multi-model analysis of drought at the global scale: Differences
+ in hydrological drought between the first and second part of the
+ 20th century}},
+ institution = {WATCH - Water and global Change},
+ year = {2011},
+ month = {August},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.07.05}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{estrelavargas2012,
+ author = {Estrela, T. and Vargas, E.},
+ title = {{Drought management plans in the European Union. The case of Spain}},
+ journal = {Water Resources Management},
+ year = {2012},
+ volume = {26},
+ pages = {1537--1553},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {Water is a strategic resource for the economic, social and environmental
+ development. However, water scarcity and droughts are current challenges
+ to this growth, as it is reflected in European Union (EU) water policies,
+ and in national and regional growing initiatives. In addition, these
+ water related issues could worsen by climate change effects, adding
+ pressure to already water stressed areas. This paper presents a general
+ overview of drought management in the European Union, reviews scientific
+ and technical advances, the status of implementation of policy tools
+ and focuses on drought management plans. It analyses the specific
+ case of Spain, a country characterised by presenting a high irregularity
+ in temporal and spatial distribution of water resources and numerous
+ areas affected by water scarcity and droughts. Details are presented
+ on the National Drought Indicator System and drought management plans
+ approved in 2007 in Spain, which represent strategic tools with positive
+ results in drought warning and impact mitigation respectively.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s11269-011-9971-2},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.07.05}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{etchevers2002,
+ author = {Etchevers, P. and Golaz, C. and Habets, F. and Noilhan, J.},
+ title = {Impact of a climate change on the {R}hone river catchment hydrology},
+ journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {107},
+ pages = {4293},
+ number = {D16},
+ abstract = {Within the framework of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment
+ (GEWEX)/Rhone project, a system has been built to estimate the hydrological
+ budget of the Rhone, one of the major European rivers (with a 86,500
+ km2 surface area for the French part of the catchment). The methodology
+ is based on three models, one for each component of the hydrometeorological
+ system: The atmospheric parameter analysis, the snow cover, the surface
+ water and energy budget, and the underground water transfer and discharge
+ estimation. This tool has been validated for 14 years (from 1981
+ to 1994) by comparing the daily river flows simulated by the models
+ with measurements from 145 gauging stations. In this study, the results
+ of the ARPEGE-Climat general circulation model (GCM) have been used
+ to estimate the climate of the Rhone catchment in 60 years. The perturbation
+ of the air temperature and precipitation amount has been used to
+ modify the actual set of meteorological parameters in order to simulate
+ the hydrological budget of the Rhone river. Vegetation and soil structure
+ are supposed to be identical to current values, which is a strong
+ hypothesis. The river discharge and soil water resources under the
+ climatic scenario are compared with the results of the actual simulation.
+ Strong contrasts in the hydrological response of the catchment are
+ noticeable, depending on the location of the subcatchments and the
+ amount of precipitation. Snow cover is the most sensitive hydrological
+ component to the air temperature increase, and the high mountainous
+ river regimes are strongly modified. When considering the soil water
+ content, it appears that the northern part of the domain stays quite
+ wet, whereas drying is enhanced in the south. The uncertainties in
+ the results are estimated by analyzing the model sensitivity to different
+ simple climatic scenarios. In particular, the analysis brings into
+ light the impact of the downscaling of the GCM results},
+ doi = {10.1029/2001JD000490},
+ tags = {Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{evans2003,
+ author = {Evans, J.},
+ title = {Improving the characteristics of streamflow modeled by regional climate
+ models},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {284},
+ pages = {211--227},
+ number = {1--4},
+ month = {December},
+ abstract = {The introduction of complex land surface parameterization schemes
+ into regional climate models (RCMs) has been focused on improving
+ the modeling of land surface feedbacks to the atmosphere. As such
+ the modeling of streamflow was considered a by-product of the water
+ balance and until recently it received relatively little attention.
+ Comparison of four RCMs (RegCM2, MM5/BATS, MM5/SHEELS and MM5/OSU)
+ and a simple hydrology model, Catchment Moisture Deficit–Identification
+ of unit Hydrographs And Component flows from Rainfall, Evaporation
+ and Streamflow data (CMD-IHACRES) demonstrates the improvement in
+ the characteristics of the streamflow prediction, which may be achieved
+ using CMD-IHACRES. The conceptual structure of CMD-IHACRES allows
+ it to be ‘incorporated’ into the RCMs, improving their streamflow
+ predictions, as is demonstrated for the FIFE region of central USA.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.08.003},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.07.29}
+}
+
+@INPROCEEDINGS{eversghalia2009,
+ author = {Evers, G. and Ghalia, M.},
+ title = {Regrouping Particle Swarm Optimization: A New Global Optimization
+ Algorithm with Improved Performance Consistency Across Benchmarks},
+ booktitle = {IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 2009.
+ SMC 2009},
+ year = {2009},
+ pages = {3901--3908},
+ doi = {10.1109/ICSMC.2009.5346625},
+ tags = {Calibration, PSO}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{ewen+al2006,
+ author = {Ewen, J. and O'Donnell, G. and Burton, A. and O'Connell, E.},
+ title = {Errors and uncertainty in physically--based rainfall--runoff modelling
+ of catchment change effects},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {330},
+ pages = {641},
+ number = {3--4},
+ abstract = {The error in physically-based rainfall-runoff modelling is broken
+ into components, and these components are assigned to three groups:
+ (1) model structure error, associated with the model’s equations;
+ (2) parameter error, associated with the parameter values used in
+ the equations; and (3) run time error, associated with rainfall and
+ other forcing data. The error components all contribute to “integratedâ€
+ errors, such as the difference between simulated and observed runoff,
+ but their individual contributions cannot usually be isolated because
+ the modelling process is complex and there is a lack of knowledge
+ about the catchment and its hydrological responses. A simple model
+ of the Slapton Wood Catchment is developed within a theoretical framework
+ in which the catchment and its responses are assumed to be known
+ perfectly. This makes it possible to analyse the contributions of
+ the error components when predicting the effects of a physical change
+ in the catchment. The standard approach to predicting change effects
+ involves: (1) running “unchanged†simulations using current parameter
+ sets; (2) making adjustments to the sets to allow for physical change;
+ and (3) running “changed†simulations. Calibration or uncertainty-handling
+ methods such as GLUE are used to obtain the current sets based on
+ forcing and runoff data for a calibration period, by minimising or
+ creating statistical bounds for the “integrated†errors in simulations
+ of runoff. It is shown that current parameter sets derived in this
+ fashion are unreliable for predicting change effects, because of
+ model structure error and its interaction with parameter error, so
+ caution is needed if the standard approach is to be used when making
+ management decisions about change in catchments.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.04.024},
+ tags = {Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{ewenparkin1996,
+ author = {Ewen, J. and Parkin, G.},
+ title = {Validation of catchment models for predicting land-use and climate
+ change impacts .1. Method},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {1996},
+ volume = {175},
+ pages = {583--594},
+ number = {1--4},
+ abstract = {Computer simulation models are increasingly being proposed as tools
+ capable of giving water resource managers accurate predictions of
+ the impact of changes in land-use and climate. Previous validation
+ testing of catchment models is reviewed, and it is concluded that
+ the methods used do not clearly test a model's fitness for such a
+ purpose. A new generally applicable method is proposed. This involves
+ the direct testing of fitness for purpose, uses established scientific
+ techniques, and may be implemented within a quality assured programme
+ of work. The new method is applied in Part 2 of this study (Parkin
+ et al., J. Hydrol., 175: 595-613, 1996).},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0022-1694(96)80026-6},
+ keywords = {SYSTEME HYDROLOGIQUE EUROPEEN, WATER-BALANCE, SIMULATION, RUNOFF,
+ ACIDIFICATION, UPLANDS, SHE}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{ezzedine1996,
+ author = {Ezzedine, S. and Rubin, Y.},
+ title = {A geostatistical approach to the conditional estimation of spatially
+ distributed solute concentration and notes on the use of tracer data
+ in the inverse problem},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1996},
+ volume = {32},
+ pages = {853--861},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {This paper presents a theoretical framework for deriving the moments
+ of the concentration, based on the Lagrangian approach and using
+ a stochastic framework, conditional to measurements of conductivity
+ and hydraulic head. The method consists of deriving the spatial correlations
+ between concentration and travel time and hydrologic variables such
+ as the conductivity and the hydraulic head. These correlations allow
+ the conditioning of the moments of the concentration on measurements.
+ By conditioning the concentration the uncertainty associated with
+ its estimation can be reduced substantially. Consequently, difficulties
+ associated with estimation of the extent of contamination can be
+ alleviated. The theoretical framework and derivations may also be
+ used to condition the moments of the conductivity on tracer data
+ such as concentrations, travel times, and displacements. An application
+ of such an approach would require a configuration of sources and
+ samplers. We show that measured concentration is inferior to travel
+ time and displacements in terms of efficient conditioning.},
+ doi = {10.1029/95WR02285},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.02.12}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{falloon2009,
+ author = {Falloon, P. and Betts, R.},
+ title = {Climate impacts on {E}uropean agriculture and water management in
+ the context of adaptation and mitigation--{T}he importance of an
+ integrated approach},
+ journal = {Science of the Total Environment},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {408},
+ pages = {5667--5687},
+ number = {23},
+ abstract = {We review and qualitatively assess the importance of interactions
+ and feedbacks in assessing climate change impacts on water and agriculture
+ in Europe. We focus particularly on the impact of future hydrological
+ changes on agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation and adaptation
+ options. Future projected trends in European agriculture include
+ northward movement of crop suitability zones and increasing crop
+ productivity in Northern Europe, but declining productivity and suitability
+ in Southern Europe. This may be accompanied by a widening of water
+ resource differences between the North and South, and an increase
+ in extreme rainfall events and droughts. Changes in future hydrology
+ and water management practices will influence agricultural adaptation
+ measures and alter the effectiveness of agricultural mitigation strategies.
+ These interactions are often highly complex and influenced by a number
+ of factors which are themselves influenced by climate. Mainly positive
+ impacts may be anticipated for Northern Europe, where agricultural
+ adaptation may be shaped by reduced vulnerability of production,
+ increased water supply and reduced water demand. However, increasing
+ flood hazards may present challenges for agriculture, and summer
+ irrigation shortages may result from earlier spring runoff peaks
+ in some regions. Conversely, the need for effective adaptation will
+ be greatest in Southern Europe as a result of increased production
+ vulnerability, reduced water supply and increased demands for irrigation.
+ Increasing flood and drought risks will further contribute to the
+ need for robust management practices. The impacts of future hydrological
+ changes on agricultural mitigation in Europe will depend on the balance
+ between changes in productivity and rates of decomposition and GHG
+ emission, both of which depend on climatic, land and management factors.
+ Small increases in European soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks per
+ unit land area are anticipated considering changes in climate, management
+ and land use, although an overall reduction in the total stock may
+ result from a smaller agricultural land area. Adaptation in the water
+ sector could potentially provide additional benefits to agricultural
+ production such as reduced flood risk and increased drought resilience.
+ The two main sources of uncertainty in climate impacts on European
+ agriculture and water management are projections of future climate
+ and their resulting impacts on water and agriculture. Since changes
+ in climate, agricultural ecosystems and hydrometeorology depend on
+ complex interactions between the atmosphere, biosphere and hydrological
+ cycle there is a need for more integrated approaches to climate impacts
+ assessments. Methods for assessing options which “moderate†the impact
+ of agriculture in the wider sense will also need to consider cross-sectoral
+ impacts and socio-economic aspects.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.05.002},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.21}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{FAO1989,
+ author = {FAO},
+ title = {Role of forestry in combating desertification: {Proceedings of the
+ FAO Expert Consultation on the Role of Forestry in Combating Desertification
+ held in Saltillo, Mexico 24-28 June 1985}},
+ institution = {FAO},
+ year = {1989},
+ address = {Rome, Italy},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.04.08},
+ url = {http://www.fao.org/docrep/T0115E/T0115E00.htm#Contents}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{fenicia+al2007b,
+ author = {Fenicia, F. and Savenije, H. and Matgen, P. and Pfister, L.},
+ title = {A comparison of alternative multiobjective calibration strategies
+ for hydrological modeling},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {43},
+ pages = {W03434},
+ abstract = {A conceptual hydrological model structure contains several parameters
+ that have to be estimated through matching observed and modeled watershed
+ behavior in a calibration process. The requirement that a model simulation
+ matches different aspects of system response at the same time has
+ led the calibration problem toward a multiobjective approach. In
+ this work we compare two multiobjective calibration approaches, each
+ of which represents a different calibration philosophy. The first
+ calibration approach is based on the concept of Pareto optimality
+ and consists of calibrating all parameters with respect to a common
+ set of objectives in one calibration stage. This approach results
+ in a set of Pareto-optimal solutions representing the trade-offs
+ between the selected calibration objectives. The second is a stepped
+ calibration approach (SCA), which implies a stepwise calibration
+ of sets of parameters that are associated with specific aspects of
+ the system response. This approach replicates the steps followed
+ by a hydrologist in manual calibration and develops a single solution.
+ The comparison is performed considering the same set of objectives
+ for the two approaches and two model structures of a different level
+ of complexity. The difference in the two approaches, their reciprocal
+ utility, and the practical implications involved in their application
+ are analyzed and discussed using the Hesperange catchment case, an
+ experimental basin in the Alzette River basin in Luxembourg. We show
+ that the two approaches are not necessarily conflicting but can be
+ complementary. The first approach provides useful information about
+ the deficiencies of a model structure and therefore helps the model
+ development, while the second attempts at determining a solution
+ that is consistent with the data available. We also show that with
+ increasing model complexity it becomes possible to reproduce the
+ observations more accurately. As a result, the solutions for the
+ different calibration objectives become less distinguishable from
+ each other, indicating that calibration results become less dependent
+ on the objective functions used when the model is a better representation
+ of reality and has a higher potential to reproduce the observations},
+ doi = {10.1029/2006WR005098},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{fenicia+al2007a,
+ author = {Fenicia, F. and Solomatine, D. and Savenije, H. and Matgen, P.},
+ title = {Soft combination of local models in a multi-objective framework},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {11},
+ pages = {1797--1809},
+ number = {11},
+ abstract = {Conceptual hydrologic models are useful tools as they provide an interpretable
+ representation of the hydrologic behaviour of a catchment. Their
+ representation of catchment's hydrological processes and physical
+ characteristics, however, implies a simplification of the complexity
+ and heterogeneity of reality. As a result, these models may show
+ a lack of flexibility in reproducing the vast spectrum of catchment
+ responses. Hence, the accuracy in reproducing certain aspects of
+ the system behaviour may be paid in terms of a lack of accuracy in
+ the representation of other aspects.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-11-1797-2007},
+ keywords = {ARTIFICIAL NEURAL-NETWORK, RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS, 2 CONTRASTING CATCHMENTS,
+ HYDROLOGIC-MODELS, HIERARCHICAL MIXTURES, IMPROVED CALIBRATION, UNCERTAINTY,
+ PREDICTION, OPTIMIZATION, EQUIFINALITY},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{fernandezsalas1999a,
+ author = {Fern\'andez, B. and Salas, J.},
+ title = {{Return period and risk of hydrologic events.I: Mathematical formulation}},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrologic Engineering},
+ year = {1999},
+ volume = {4},
+ pages = {297--307},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {The estimation of return periods of hydrological events and the corresponding
+ risks of failure of hydraulic structures that are associated with
+ such events are important aspects in many water resources studies.
+ For simple hydrologic events such as those related to independent
+ annual floods, both the return period and the risk of failure can
+ be readily calculated. However, no general applicable methods are
+ available for the estimation of return periods, risk of failure,
+ and reliability of service in cases of more complex hydrological
+ events such as those related to dependent annual flows and droughts.
+ In this paper, the definitions commonly employed for return period
+ and risk of failure are reexamined and a general procedure for their
+ estimation are presented, which may be applicable to a wide range
+ of hydrological events related to floods, droughts, minimum flows,
+ aquifer levels, and reservoir levels and outflows. Part II of this
+ paper includes numerical examples and applications.},
+ doi = {10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(1999)4:4(297)},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.07.05}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{fernandezsalas1999b,
+ author = {Fern\'andez, B. and Salas, J.},
+ title = {{Return period and risk of hydrologic events. II: Applications}},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrologic Engineering},
+ year = {1999},
+ volume = {4},
+ pages = {308--316},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {A mathematical formulation to estimate return periods and risks of
+ failure of complex hydrologic events such as those arising from dependent
+ floods and droughts have been examined in the first part of this
+ paper. Specifically, some relationships and algorithms for computing
+ return periods and associated risks for runs arising from independent
+ and dependent events assuming that dependence is represented by a
+ two-state Markov chain have been proposed. The applicability of these
+ procedures is illustrated herein, considering several types of hydrological
+ events with emphasis on those where dependence is important. First,
+ meteorological droughts based on annual precipitation are considered
+ as examples of events consisting of runs in independent trials. Then,
+ minimum streamflows and maximum annual lake outflows are included
+ as examples of dependent events, assuming that dependence is represented
+ by a simple Markov chain. Also, hydrological droughts based on annual
+ streamflow series are considered. In addition, the estimation of
+ return period and risk are illustrated by data generation.},
+ doi = {10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(1999)4:4(308)},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.07.05}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{feyen+al2008,
+ author = {Feyen, J. and Kalas, M. and Vrugt, J.},
+ title = {Semi-distributed parameters for large-scale streamflow simulation
+ using global optimization},
+ journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {53},
+ pages = {293--308},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {In catchments characterized by spatially varying hydrological processes
+ and responses, the optimal parameter values or regions of attraction
+ in parameter space may differ with location-specific characteristics
+ and dominating processes. This paper evaluates the value of semi-distributed
+ calibration parameters for large-scale streamflow simulation using
+ the spatially distributed LISFLOOD model. We employ the Shuffled
+ Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM-UA) global optimization algorithm
+ to infer the calibration parameters using daily discharge observations.
+ The resulting posterior parameter distribution reflects the uncertainty
+ about the model parameters and forms the basis for making probabilistic
+ flow predictions. We assess the value of semi-distributing the calibration
+ parameters by comparing three different calibration strategies. In
+ the first calibration strategy uniform values over the entire area
+ of interest are adopted for the unknown parameters, which are calibrated
+ against discharge observations at the downstream outlet of the catchment.
+ In the second calibration strategy the parameters are also uniformly
+ distributed, but they are calibrated against observed discharges
+ at the catchment outlet and at internal stations. In the third strategy
+ a semi-distributed approach is adopted. Starting from upstream, parameters
+ in each subcatchment are calibrated against the observed discharges
+ at the outlet of the subcatchment. In order not to propagate upstream
+ errors in the calibration process, observed discharges at upstream
+ catchment outlets are used as inflow when calibrating downstream
+ subcatchments. As an illustrative example, we demonstrate the methodology
+ for a part of the Morava catchment, covering an area of approximately
+ 10 000 km2. The calibration results reveal that the additional value
+ of the internal discharge stations is limited when applying a lumped
+ parameter approach. Moving from a lumped to a semi-distributed parameter
+ approach: (i) improves the accuracy of the flow predictions, especially
+ in the upstream subcatchments; and (ii) results in a more correct
+ representation of flow prediction uncertainty. The results show the
+ clear need to distribute the calibration parameters, especially in
+ large catchments characterized by spatially varying hydrological
+ processes and responses.},
+ doi = {10.1623/hysj.53.2.293},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.08.17}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{feyen2001,
+ author = {Feyen, L. and Beven, K. and {De Smedt}, F. and Freer, J.},
+ title = {Stochastic capture zone delineation within the {GLUE}--methodology:
+ {C}onditioning on head observations},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {37},
+ pages = {625--638},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {A stochastic methodology to evaluate the predictive uncertainty in
+ well capture zones in heterogeneous aquifers with uncertain parameters
+ is presented. The approach is based on the generalized likelihood
+ uncertainty estimation methodology. The hydraulic conductivity is
+ modeled as a random space function allowing for the uncertainty that
+ stems from the imperfect knowledge of the parameters of the correlation
+ structure. Parameters are sampled from prior distributions and are
+ used for the generation of a large number of hydraulic conductivity
+ fields, which are subsequently used to solve the groundwater flow
+ equation. A likelihood is calculated for every simulation, based
+ on some goodness-of-fit measure between simulated heads and available
+ observations. Using inverse particle tracking, a capture zone is
+ determined which is assigned the likelihood calculated for that particular
+ simulation. Statistical analysis of the ensemble of all simulations
+ enables the predictive uncertainty of the well capture zones to be
+ defined. Results are presented for a hypothetical test case and different
+ likelihood definitions used in the conditioning process. The results
+ show that the delineated capture zones are most sensitive to the
+ mean hydraulic conductivity and the variance, whereas the integral
+ scale of the variogram is the parameter with the smallest influence.
+ For all likelihood measures the prior uncertainty is reduced considerably
+ by introducing the observation heads, but the reduction is most effective
+ for the very selective likelihood definition. The method presented
+ can be used in real applications to quantify the uncertainty in the
+ location and extent of well capture zones when little or no information
+ is available about the hydraulic properties, through the conditioning
+ on head observations.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2000WR900351},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{feyen2005,
+ author = {Feyen, L. and Caers, J.},
+ title = {Quantifying geological uncertainty for flow and transport modeling
+ in multi--modal heterogeneous formations},
+ journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {29},
+ pages = {912--929},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {In this work, we address the problem of characterizing the heterogeneity
+ and uncertainty of hydraulic properties for complex geological settings.
+ Hereby, we distinguish between two scales of heterogeneity, namely
+ the hydrofacies structure and the intrafacies variability of the
+ hydraulic properties. We employ multiple-point geostatistics to characterize
+ the hydrofacies architecture. The multiple-point statistics are borrowed
+ from a training image that is designed to reflect the prior geological
+ conceptualization. The intrafacies variability of the hydraulic properties
+ is represented using conventional two-point correlation methods,
+ more precisely, spatial covariance models under a multi-Gaussian
+ spatial law. We address the different levels and sources of uncertainty
+ in characterizing the subsurface heterogeneity, and explore their
+ effect on groundwater flow and transport predictions. Typically,
+ uncertainty is assessed by way of many images, termed realizations,
+ of a fixed statistical model. However, in many cases, sampling from
+ a fixed stochastic model does not adequately represent the space
+ of uncertainty. It neglects the uncertainty related to the selection
+ of the stochastic model and the estimation of its input parameters.
+ We acknowledge the uncertainty inherent in the definition of the
+ prior conceptual model of aquifer architecture and in the estimation
+ of global statistics, anisotropy, and correlation scales. Spatial
+ bootstrap is used to assess the uncertainty of the unknown statistical
+ parameters. As an illustrative example, we employ a synthetic field
+ that represents a fluvial setting consisting of an interconnected
+ network of channel sands embedded within finer-grained floodplain
+ material. For this highly non-stationary setting we quantify the
+ groundwater flow and transport model prediction uncertainty for various
+ levels of hydrogeological uncertainty. Results indicate the importance
+ of accurately describing the facies geometry, especially for transport
+ predictions.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.advwatres.2005.08.002},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{feyendankers2009,
+ author = {Feyen, L. and Dankers, R.},
+ title = {Impact of global warming on streamflow drought in {E}urope},
+ journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {114},
+ pages = {1--17},
+ number = {D17116},
+ abstract = {Recent developments in climate modeling suggest that global warming
+ is likely to favor conditions for the development of droughts in
+ many regions of Europe. Studies evaluating possible changes in drought
+ hazard typically have employed indices that are derived solely from
+ climate variables such as temperature and precipitation, whereas
+ many of the impacts of droughts are more related to hydrological
+ variables such as river flow. This study examines the impact of global
+ warming on streamflow drought in Europe by comparing low-flow predictions
+ of a hydrological model driven by high-resolution regional climate
+ simulations for the end of the previous century and for the end of
+ this century based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2
+ greenhouse gas emission scenario. For both time slices, low-flow
+ characteristics were derived from the simulated streamflow series
+ using extreme value analysis. More specifically, we employed the
+ methods of block maxima and partial duration series to obtain minimum
+ flows and flow deficits and fitted extreme value distributions by
+ the maximum likelihood method. In order not to mix drought events
+ with different physical causes the analysis was performed separately
+ for the frost and nonfrost season. Results show that in the frost-free
+ season streamflow droughts will become more severe and persistent
+ in most parts of Europe by the end of this century, except in the
+ most northern and northeastern regions. In the frost season, streamflow
+ drought conditions will be of less importance under future climate
+ conditions},
+ doi = {10.1029/2008JD011438},
+ tags = {Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{feyen+al2012,
+ author = {Feyen, L. and Dankers, R. and Bodis, K. and Salamon, P. and Barredo,
+ J.},
+ title = {{Fluvial flood risk in Europe in present and future climates}},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2012},
+ volume = {112},
+ pages = {47--62},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {In this work we evaluate the implications of climate change for future
+ fluvial flood risk in Europe, considering climate developments under
+ the SRES A2 (high emission) and B2 (low emission) scenario. We define
+ flood risk as the product of flood probability (or hazard), exposure
+ of capital and population, and vulnerability to the effect of flooding.
+ From the European flood hazard simulations of Dankers and Feyen (J
+ Geophys Res 114:D16108. doi:10.1029/2008JD011523, 2009) discharges
+ with return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 250 and 500 years were
+ extracted and converted into flood inundation extents and depths
+ using a planar approximation approach. Flood inundation extents and
+ depths were transformed into direct monetary damage using country
+ specific flood depth-damage functions and land use information. Population
+ exposure was assessed by overlaying the flood inundation information
+ with data on population density. By linearly interpolating damages
+ and population exposed between the different return periods, we constructed
+ damage and population exposure probability functions under present
+ and future climate. From the latter expected annual damages (EAD)
+ and expected annual population exposed (EAP) were calculated. To
+ account for flood protection the damage and population exposure probability
+ functions were truncated at design return periods based on the country
+ GDP/capita. Results indicate that flood damages are projected to
+ rise across much of Western Europe. Decreases in flood damage are
+ consistently projected for north-eastern parts of Europe. For EU27
+ as a whole, current EAD of approximately €6.4 billion is projected
+ to amount to €14–21.5 billion (in constant prices of 2006) by the
+ end of this century, depending on the scenario. The number of people
+ affected by flooding is projected to rise by approximately 250,000
+ to 400,000. Notwithstanding these numbers are subject to uncertainty,
+ they provide an indication of potential future developments in flood
+ risk in a changing climate.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10584-011-0339-7},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.10.17}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{feyen2004,
+ author = {Feyen, L. and Dessalegn, A. and {De Smedt}, F. and Gebremeskel, S.
+ and Batelaan, O.},
+ title = {Application of a {B}ayesian approach to stochastic delineation of
+ capture zones},
+ journal = {Ground Water},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {42},
+ pages = {542--551},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {This paper presents a Bayesian Monte Carlo method for evaluating the
+ uncertainty in the delineation of well capture zones and its application
+ to a wellfield in a heterogeneous, multiaquifer system. In the method
+ presented, Bayes' rule is used to update prior distributions for
+ the unknown parameters of the stochastic model for the hydraulic
+ conductivity, and to calculate probability-based weights for parameter
+ realizations using head residuals. These weights are then assigned
+ to the corresponding capture zones obtained using forward particle
+ tracking. Statistical analysis of the set of weighted protection
+ zones results in a probability distribution for the capture zones.
+ The suitability of the Bayesian stochastic method for a multilayered
+ system is investigated, using the wellfield Het Rot at Nieuwrode,
+ Belgium, located in a three-layered aquifer system, as an example.
+ The hydraulic conductivity of the production aquifer is modeled as
+ a spatially correlated random function with uncertain parameters.
+ The aquitard and overlying uncon-fined aquifer are assigned random,
+ homogeneous conductivities. The stochastic results are compared with
+ deterministic capture zones obtained with a calibrated model for
+ the area. The predictions of the stochastic approach are more conservative
+ and indicate that parameter uncertainty should be taken into account
+ in the delineation of well capture zones.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1745-6584.2004.tb02623.x},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{feyen2003a,
+ author = {Feyen, L. and G\'omez-Hern\'andez, J. and Ribeiro, P. and Beven,
+ K. and {De Smedt}, F.},
+ title = {A Bayesian approach to stochastic capture zone delineation incorporating
+ tracer arrival times, conductivity measurements, and hydraulic head
+ observations},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {39},
+ pages = {1126--1138},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {This paper presents a methodology to invert tracer arrival times and
+ to incorporate travel time data in the delineation of well capture
+ zones. Within a Bayesian framework the observed arrival times are
+ used to obtain probability-based weights for each realization of
+ the hydraulic conductivity field. Realizations that closely reproduce
+ the observed arrival times are more likely to represent the “trueâ€
+ or real conductivity field than realizations yielding worse predictions,
+ and are consequently characterized by a higher conditional probability.
+ In the prediction of the capture zones the realizations are weighted
+ by their respective probability. We combine the arrival time data
+ with conductivity measurements and head observations to delineate
+ stochastic capture zones. The conductivity measurements update the
+ prior distributions specified for the unknown structural parameters
+ of the conductivity field, and are used as conditioning data in the
+ generation of conditional conductivity fields. The parameter values
+ used to generate the conductivity realizations are sampled by Monte
+ Carlo from the updated parameter distributions. The head and travel
+ time observations are subsequently used to assign probability-based
+ weights to the conductivity realizations by applying Bayes' theorem.
+ The hyperparameters of the error model are assumed unknown, and their
+ effect is accounted for by marginalization. A synthetic flow setup
+ consisting of a single extraction well in a fully confined aquifer
+ under a regional gradient is used to illustrate the method. We evaluate
+ the relative worth of the different data types by introducing them
+ sequentially in the inverse methodology. Results indicate that the
+ different data types are complementary and that the travel time data
+ are essential to improve the predictions of the capture zones. This
+ is confirmed by the results for the case where uncertainty in the
+ homogeneous porosity is accounted for.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2002WR001544},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{feyen2003c,
+ author = {Feyen, L. and Ribeiro, P. and {De Smedt}, F. and Diggle, P.},
+ title = {Stochastic delineation of capture zones: {C}lassical versus {B}ayesian
+ approach},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {281},
+ pages = {313--324},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {A Bayesian approach to characterize the predictive uncertainty in
+ the delineation of time-related well capture zones in heterogeneous
+ formations is presented and compared with the classical or non-Bayesian
+ approach. The transmissivity field is modelled as a random space
+ function and conditioned on distributed measurements of the transmissivity.
+ In conventional geostatistical methods the mean value of the log
+ transmissivity and the functional form of the covariance and its
+ parameters are estimated from the available measurements, and then
+ entered into the prediction equations as if they are the true values.
+ However, this classical approach accounts only for the uncertainty
+ that stems from the lack of ability to exactly predict the transmissivity
+ at unmeasured locations. In reality, the number of measurements used
+ to infer the statistical properties of the transmissvity field is
+ often limited, which introduces error in the estimation of the structural
+ parameters. The method presented accounts for the uncertainty that
+ originates from the imperfect knowledge of the parameters by treating
+ them as random variables. In particular, we use Bayesian methods
+ of inference so as to make proper allowance for the uncertainty associated
+ with estimating the unknown values of the parameters. The classical
+ and Bayesian approach to stochastic capture zone delineation are
+ detailed and applied to a hypothetical flow field. Two different
+ sampling densities on a regular grid are considered to evaluate the
+ effect of data density in both methods. Results indicate that the
+ predictions of the Bayesian approach are more conservative.},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00193-8},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{feyen2002,
+ author = {Feyen, L. and Ribeiro, P. and {De Smedt}, F. and Diggle, P.},
+ title = {Bayesian methodology to stochastic capture zone determination: {C}onditioning
+ on transmissivity measurements},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {38},
+ pages = {1164--1174},
+ number = {9},
+ abstract = {A methodology to determine the uncertainty associated with the delineation
+ of well capture zones in heterogeneous aquifers is presented. The
+ log transmissivity field is modeled as a random space function and
+ the Bayesian paradigm accounts for the uncertainty that stems from
+ the imperfect knowledge about the parameters of the stochastic model.
+ Unknown parameters are treated as random quantities and characterized
+ by a prior probability distribution. Log transmissivity measurements
+ are incorporated into Bayes' theorem, updating the prior distribution
+ and yielding posterior estimates of the mean value and the covariance
+ parameters of the log transmissivity. Conditional simulations of
+ the log transmissivity field are generated using samples from the
+ posterior distribution of the parameters, yielding samples from the
+ predictive distribution of the log transmissivity field. The uncertainty
+ in the model parameters is propagated to the predictive uncertainty
+ of the capture zone by solving numerically the groundwater flow equation,
+ followed by a semianalytical particle-tracking algorithm. The method
+ is applied to a set of hypothetical flow fields for various sampling
+ densities and assuming different levels of parameter uncertainty.
+ Simulation results for all the sampling densities show no univocal
+ relation between the predictive uncertainty of the capture zones
+ and the level of parameter uncertainty. However, in general, the
+ predictive uncertainty increases when parameter uncertainty is taken
+ into account.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2001WR000950},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{feyen2003b,
+ author = {Feyen, L. and Ribeiro, P. and G\'omez-Hern\'andez, J. and Beven,
+ K. and {De Smedt}, F.},
+ title = {Bayesian methodology for stochastic capture zone delineation incorporating
+ transmissivity measurements and hydraulic head observations},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {271},
+ pages = {156--170},
+ number = {1--4},
+ abstract = {The paper presents a methodology to estimate the uncertainty in the
+ prediction of capture zones using transmissivity measurements and
+ hydraulic head observations. We use a stochastic approach to parameterise
+ the transmissivity field. By treating the parameters of the stochastic
+ model as random variables we account for the fact that they are unknown
+ and that a simple deterministic process cannot model their genesis.
+ The method requires the definition of a prior probability density
+ function for the mean value and for the covariance parameters of
+ the log transmissivity field. In a first phase, log transmissivity
+ measurements are incorporated into Bayes' theorem updating the prior
+ densities to yield the posterior densities for the model parameters.
+ Conditional realisations of the log transmissivity field are generated
+ using parameter sets obtained by Monte Carlo sampling from the posterior
+ parameter distributions. The second phase consists of updating the
+ posterior probabilities of the conditional log transmissivity fields
+ using the hydraulic head observations through a second application
+ of Bayes' theorem. Then, for each realisation of the log transmissivity
+ field, the capture zone is determined using particle tracking, which
+ is weighted by the posterior probabilities of the respective log
+ transmissivity field. The set of weighted capture zones results in
+ a capture zone probability distribution. We show an application to
+ a hypothetical flow system consisting of a single abstraction well
+ in a confined aquifer under a regional background gradient and compare
+ the worth of log transmissivity measurements and head observations
+ by incorporating the different data types into the procedure sequentially.
+ Results show that head observations are more effective in reducing
+ the spread of the predictive capture zone distribution, whereas the
+ transmissivity measurements are more valuable in predicting the actual
+ location of the true capture zone.},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00314-1},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{feyen+al2007,
+ author = {Feyen, L. and Vrugt, J. and {\'O Nuall\'ain}, B. and {van der Knijff},
+ J. and {de Roo}, A.},
+ title = {Parameter optimization and uncertainty assessment for large-scale
+ streamflow simulation with the {LISFLOOD} model},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {332},
+ pages = {276--289},
+ number = {3--4},
+ month = {January},
+ abstract = {This work addresses the calibration of the distributed rainfall-runoff
+ model LISFLOOD and, in particular, the realistic quantification of
+ parameter uncertainty and its effect on the prediction of river discharges
+ for large European catchments. LISFLOOD is driven by meteorological
+ input data and simulates river discharge in large drainage basins
+ as a function of spatial information on topography, soils and land
+ cover. Even though LISFLOOD is physically based to a certain extent,
+ some processes are only represented in a lumped conceptual way. As
+ a result, some parameters lack physical basis and cannot be directly
+ inferred from quantities that can be measured. In the current LISFLOOD
+ version five parameters need to be determined by calibration. We
+ employ the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM-UA) global
+ optimisation algorithm to automatically calibrate the model against
+ daily discharge observations. The resulting posterior parameter distribution
+ reflects the uncertainty about the model parameters after taking
+ into account the discharge observations, and forms the basis for
+ making probabilistic flow predictions. To overcome the computational
+ burden the optimisation has been implemented using parallel computing.
+ As an illustrative example, we demonstrate the methodology for the
+ Meuse catchment upstream of Borgharen, covering approximately 21,000
+ km2. Results demonstrate the capabilities of the SCEM-UA algorithm
+ to efficiently evolve to the target posterior distribution and to
+ identify, except for the lower groundwater zone time constant, the
+ LISFLOOD calibration parameters using daily discharge observations.
+ It should be noted that the posterior parameter distributions are
+ based on the assumption of independent errors. Analysis of the residuals
+ revealed there is a strong evidence to reject this assumption. This
+ will impact on the parameter posterior distributions and also lead
+ to underestimation of the prediction limits.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.07.004},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.08.10}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{fienen2008,
+ author = {Fienen, M. and Clemo, T. and Kitanidis, P.},
+ title = {An interactive {B}ayesian geostatistical inverse protocol for hydraulic
+ tomography},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {44},
+ pages = {W00B01},
+ abstract = {Hydraulic tomography is a powerful technique for characterizing heterogeneous
+ hydrogeologic parameters. An explicit trade-off between characterization
+ based on measurement misfit and subjective characterization using
+ prior information is presented. We apply a Bayesian geostatistical
+ inverse approach that is well suited to accommodate a flexible model
+ with the level of complexity driven by the data and explicitly considering
+ uncertainty. Prior information is incorporated through the selection
+ of a parameter covariance model characterizing continuity and providing
+ stability. Often, discontinuities in the parameter field, typically
+ caused by geologic contacts between contrasting lithologic units,
+ necessitate subdivision into zones across which there is no correlation
+ among hydraulic parameters. We propose an interactive protocol in
+ which zonation candidates are implied from the data and are evaluated
+ using cross validation and expert knowledge. Uncertainty introduced
+ by limited knowledge of dynamic regional conditions is mitigated
+ by using drawdown rather than native head values. An adjoint state
+ formulation of MODFLOW-2000 is used to calculate sensitivities which
+ are used both for the solution to the inverse problem and to guide
+ protocol decisions. The protocol is tested using synthetic two-dimensional
+ steady state examples in which the wells are located at the edge
+ of the region of interest.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2007WR006730},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.02.12}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{fienen2009,
+ author = {Fienen, M. and Hunt, R. and Krabbenhoft, D. and Clemo, T.},
+ title = {Obtaining parsimonious hydraulic conductivity fields using head and
+ transport observations: {A Bayesian} geostatistical parameter estimation
+ approach},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {45},
+ pages = {W08405},
+ abstract = {Flow path delineation is a valuable tool for interpreting the subsurface
+ hydrogeochemical environment. Different types of data, such as groundwater
+ flow and transport, inform different aspects of hydrogeologic parameter
+ values (hydraulic conductivity in this case) which, in turn, determine
+ flow paths. This work combines flow and transport information to
+ estimate a unified set of hydrogeologic parameters using the Bayesian
+ geostatistical inverse approach. Parameter flexibility is allowed
+ by using a highly parameterized approach with the level of complexity
+ informed by the data. Despite the effort to adhere to the ideal of
+ minimal a priori structure imposed on the problem, extreme contrasts
+ in parameters can result in the need to censor correlation across
+ hydrostratigraphic bounding surfaces. These partitions segregate
+ parameters into facies associations. With an iterative approach in
+ which partitions are based on inspection of initial estimates, flow
+ path interpretation is progressively refined through the inclusion
+ of more types of data. Head observations, stable oxygen isotopes
+ (18O/16O ratios), and tritium are all used to progressively refine
+ flow path delineation on an isthmus between two lakes in the Trout
+ Lake watershed, northern Wisconsin, United States. Despite allowing
+ significant parameter freedom by estimating many distributed parameter
+ values, a smooth field is obtained.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2008WR007431},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.02.12}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{fleig+al2006,
+ author = {Fleig, A. K. and Tallaksen, L. M. and Hisdal, H. and Demuth, S.},
+ title = {A global evaluation of streamflow drought characteristics},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {10},
+ pages = {535--552},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {How drought is characterised depends on the purpose and region of
+ the study and the available data. In case of regional applications
+ or global comparison a standardisation of the methodology to characterise
+ drought is preferable. In this study the threshold level method in
+ combination with three common pooling procedures is applied to daily
+ streamflow series from a wide range of hydrological regimes. Drought
+ deficit characteristics, such as drought duration and deficit volume,
+ are derived, and the methods are evaluated for their applicability
+ for regional studies. Three different pooling procedures are evaluated:
+ the moving-average procedure (MA-procedure), the inter-event time
+ method (IT-method), and the sequent peak algorithm (SPA). The MA-procedure
+ proved to be a flexible approach for the different series, and its
+ parameter, the averaging interval, can easily be optimised for each
+ stream. However, it modifies the discharge series and might introduce
+ dependency between drought events. For the IT-method it is more difficult
+ to find an optimal value for its parameter, the length of the excess
+ period, in particular for flashy streams. The SPA can only be recommended
+ as pooling procedure for the selection of annual maximum series of
+ deficit characteristics and for very low threshold levels to ensure
+ that events occurring shortly after major events are recognized.
+ Furthermore, a frequency analysis of deficit volume and duration
+ is conducted based on partial duration series of drought events.
+ According to extreme value theory, excesses over a certain limit
+ are Generalized Pareto (GP) distributed. It was found that this model
+ indeed performed better than or equally to other distribution models.
+ In general, the GP-model could be used for streams of all regime
+ types. However, for intermittent streams, zero-flow periods should
+ be treated as censored data. For catchments with frost during the
+ winter season, summer and winter droughts have to be analysed separately.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-10-535-2006}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{foglia2009,
+ author = {Foglia, L. and Hill, M. and Mehl, S. and Burlando, P.},
+ title = {Sensitivity analysis, calibration, and testing of a distributed hydrological
+ model using error--based weighting and one objective function},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {45},
+ pages = {W06427},
+ abstract = {We evaluate the utility of three interrelated means of using data
+ to calibrate the fully distributed rainfall-runoff model TOPKAPI
+ as applied to the Maggia Valley drainage area in Switzerland. The
+ use of error-based weighting of observation and prior information
+ data, local sensitivity analysis, and single-objective function nonlinear
+ regression provides quantitative evaluation of sensitivity of the
+ 35 model parameters to the data, identification of data types most
+ important to the calibration, and identification of correlations
+ among parameters that contribute to nonuniqueness. Sensitivity analysis
+ required only 71 model runs, and regression required about 50 model
+ runs. The approach presented appears to be ideal for evaluation of
+ models with long run times or as a preliminary step to more computationally
+ demanding methods. The statistics used include composite scaled sensitivities,
+ parameter correlation coefficients, leverage, Cook's D, and DFBETAS.
+ Tests suggest predictive ability of the calibrated model typical
+ of hydrologic models.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2008WR007255},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.02.12}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{foglia2007,
+ author = {Foglia, L. and Mehl, S. and Hill, M. and Perona, P. and Burlando,
+ P.},
+ title = {Alternative ground water models using cross--validation and other
+ methods},
+ journal = {Ground Water},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {45},
+ pages = {627--641},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {Many methods can be used to test alternative ground water models.
+ Of concern in this work are methods able to (1) rank alternative
+ models (also called model discrimination) and (2) identify observations
+ important to parameter estimates and predictions (equivalent to the
+ purpose served by some types of sensitivity analysis). Some of the
+ measures investigated are computationally efficient; others are computationally
+ demanding. The latter are generally needed to account for model nonlinearity.
+ The efficient model discrimination methods investigated include the
+ information criteria: the corrected Akaike information criterion,
+ Bayesian information criterion, and generalized cross-validation.
+ The efficient sensitivity analysis measures used are dimensionless
+ scaled sensitivity (DSS), composite scaled sensitivity, and parameter
+ correlation coefficient (PCC); the other statistics are DFBETAS,
+ Cook's D, and observation-prediction statistic. Acronyms are explained
+ in the introduction. Cross-validation (CV) is a computationally intensive
+ nonlinear method that is used for both model discrimination and sensitivity
+ analysis. The methods are tested using up to five alternative parsimoniously
+ constructed models of the ground water system of the Maggia Valley
+ in southern Switzerland. The alternative models differ in their representation
+ of hydraulic conductivity. A new method for graphically representing
+ CV and sensitivity analysis results for complex models is presented
+ and used to evaluate the utility of the efficient statistics. The
+ results indicate that for model selection, the information criteria
+ produce similar results at much smaller computational cost than CV.
+ For identifying important observations, the only obviously inferior
+ linear measure is DSS; the poor performance was expected because
+ DSS does not include the effects of parameter correlation and PCC
+ reveals large parameter correlations.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1745-6584.2007.00341.x},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{forest+al2002,
+ author = {Forest, C. and Stone, P. and Sokolov, A. and Allen, M. and Webster,
+ M.},
+ title = {Quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties with the use
+ of recent climate observations},
+ journal = {Science},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {295},
+ pages = {113--117},
+ number = {5552},
+ abstract = {We derive joint probability density distributions for three key uncertain
+ properties of the climate system, using an optimal fingerprinting
+ approach to compare simulations of an intermediate complexity climate
+ model with three distinct diagnostics of recent climate observations.
+ On the basis of the marginal probability distributions, the 5 to
+ 95% confidence intervals are 1.4 to 7.7 kelvin for climate sensitivity
+ and -0.30 to -0.95 watt per square meter for the net aerosol forcing.
+ The oceanic heat uptake is not well constrained, but ocean temperature
+ observations do help to constrain climate sensitivity. The uncertainty
+ in the net aerosol forcing is much smaller than the uncertainty range
+ for the indirect aerosol forcing alone given in the Intergovernmental
+ Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report.},
+ doi = {10.1126/science.1064419},
+ file = {:E\:\\rojasro\\My Documents\\articles\\Quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties with the use of recent climate observations (Forest et al. 2002).pdf:PDF},
+ keywords = {SURFACE AIR-TEMPERATURE, MODEL, OCEAN},
+ tags = {Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{fowler+al2005,
+ author = {Fowler, H. and Baran, N. and Mouvet, C. and Gutierrez, A.},
+ title = {Report detailing selection of {GCM} outputs and pre--processed observed
+ rainfall and {PE} data for calibration of catchment models},
+ institution = {University of Newcastle, School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences},
+ year = {2005},
+ type = {Aquaterra Deliverable {H}1.1},
+ address = { Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU, UK},
+ tags = {Downscaling}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{fowler+al2007a,
+ author = {Fowler, H. and Blenkinsop, S. and Tebaldi, C.},
+ title = {Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: {R}ecent advances
+ in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling},
+ journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {27},
+ pages = {1547--1578},
+ number = {12},
+ abstract = {There is now a large published literature on the strengths and weaknesses
+ of downscaling methods for different climatic variables, in different
+ regions and seasons. However, little attention is given to the choice
+ of downscaling method when examining the impacts of climate change
+ on hydrological systems. This review paper assesses the current downscaling
+ literature, examining new developments in the downscaling field specifically
+ for hydrological impacts. Sections focus on the downscaling concept;
+ new methods; comparative methodological studies; the modelling of
+ extremes; and the application to hydrological impacts.Consideration
+ is then given to new developments in climate scenario construction
+ which may offer the most potential for advancement within the lsquodownscaling
+ for hydrological impactsrsquo community, such as probabilistic modelling,
+ pattern scaling and downscaling of multiple variables and suggests
+ ways that they can be merged with downscaling techniques in a probabilistic
+ climate change scenario framework to assess the uncertainties associated
+ with future projections. Within hydrological impact studies there
+ is still little consideration given to applied research; how the
+ results can be best used to enable stakeholders and managers to make
+ informed, robust decisions on adaptation and mitigation strategies
+ in the face of many uncertainties about the future. It is suggested
+ that there is a need for a move away from comparison studies into
+ the provision of decision-making tools for planning and management
+ that are robust to future uncertainties; with examination and understanding
+ of uncertainties within the modelling system. Copyright \copyright
+ 2007 Royal Meteorological Society},
+ address = {Water Resource Systems Research Laboratory, School of Civil Engineering
+ and Geosciences, Newcastle University, UK; Institute for the Study
+ of Society and Environment, National Center for Atmospheric Research,
+ Boulder, CO, USA},
+ citeulike-article-id = {3089284},
+ doi = {10.1002/joc.1556},
+ keywords = {climate, downscaling, ensemble, extreme, hydrology, impacts, intercomparison,
+ model, policy, precipitation, regional},
+ posted-at = {2008-08-05 19:22:35},
+ priority = {2},
+ tags = {Downscaling}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{fowlerekstrom2009,
+ author = {Fowler, H. and Ekstr\"om, M.},
+ title = {Multi--model ensemble estimates of climate change impacts on {UK}
+ seasonal precipitation extremes},
+ journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {29},
+ pages = {385--416},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {Thirteen regional climate model (RCM) integrations from the Prediction
+ of Regional Scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate
+ change risks and Effects (PRUDENCE) ensemble are used together with
+ extreme value analysis to assess changes to seasonal precipitation
+ extremes in nine UK rainfall regions by 2070-2100 under the SRES
+ A2 emissions scenario. Model weights are based on similarities between
+ observed and modelled UK extreme precipitation calculated for a combination
+ of (1) spatial characteristics: the semi-variogram parameters sill
+ and range, and (2) the discrepancy in the regional median seasonal
+ maxima. These weights are used to combine individual RCM bootstrap
+ samples to provide multi-model ensemble estimates of percent change
+ in the return value magnitudes of regional extremes. The contribution
+ of global climate model (GCM) and RCM combinations to model structural
+ uncertainty is also investigated. The multi-model ensembles project
+ increases across the UK in winter, spring and autumn extreme precipitation;
+ although there is uncertainty in the absolute magnitude of increases,
+ these range from 5 to 30% depending upon region and season. In summer,
+ model predictions span the zero change line, although there is low
+ confidence due to poor model performance. RCM performance is shown
+ to be highly variable; extremes are well simulated in winter and
+ very poorly simulated in summer. The ensemble distributions are wider
+ (projections are more uncertain) for shorter duration extremes (e.g.
+ 1 day) and higher return periods (e.g. 25 year). There are rather
+ limited differences in the weighted and unweighted multi-model ensembles,
+ perhaps a consequence of the lack of model independence between ensemble
+ members. The largest contribution to uncertainty in the multi-model
+ ensembles comes from the lateral boundary conditions used by RCMs
+ included in the ensemble. Therefore, the uncertainty bounds shown
+ here are conservative despite the relatively large number of RCMs
+ contributing to the multi-model ensemble distribution},
+ doi = {10.1002/joc.1827},
+ keywords = {PRUDENCE},
+ tags = {Multimodel - Ensambles, Precipitation Changes}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{fowler+al2007c,
+ author = {Fowler, H. and Ekstr\"om, M. and Blenkinsop, S. and Smith, A.},
+ title = {Estimating change in extreme European precipitation using a multi-model
+ ensemble},
+ journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {112},
+ pages = {D18104},
+ abstract = {Using the results from multi-model ensembles enables the assessment
+ of model uncertainty in present and future estimates of extremes
+ and the production of probabilities for regional or local scale change.
+ Six regional climate model (RCM) integrations from the PRUDENCE ensemble
+ are used together with extreme value analysis to assess changes to
+ precipitation extremes over Europe by 2070-2100 under the SRES A2
+ emissions scenario, investigating the contribution of the formulations
+ of global (GCM) and regional climate models to scenario uncertainty.
+ RCM ability to simulate precipitation extremes is evaluated for a
+ UK case study. RCMs are shown to underestimate 1 day return values
+ but reasonably simulate longer duration (5 or 10 day) extremes. A
+ multi-model approach by which probabilities can be produced for regional
+ or local scale change in extremes is then developed. A key result
+ is that all RCMs project increases in the magnitude of short and
+ long duration extreme precipitation for most of Europe. Individual
+ model projections vary considerably but are independent of changes
+ in mean precipitation. The magnitude of change is strongly influenced
+ by the driving GCM but moderated by the RCM, which also influences
+ spatial pattern. Therefore, when designing future ensemble experiments
+ (a) the number of GCMs should at least equal the number of RCMs;
+ (b) if spatial pattern is important then integrations from different
+ RCMs should be incorporated. For impact studies, both the resolution
+ and number of models in the ensemble will influence projections of
+ change. The use of a multi-model approach therefore provides more
+ robust estimates.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2007JD008619},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.07.05}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{fowlerkilsby2007,
+ author = {Fowler, H. and Kilsby, C.},
+ title = {Using regional climate model data to simulate historical and future
+ river flows in northwest {E}ngland},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {80},
+ pages = {337--367},
+ number = {3--4},
+ month = {February},
+ abstract = {Daily rainfall and temperature data were extracted from the multi-ensemble
+ HadRM3H regional climate model (RCM) integrations for control (1960--1990)
+ and future (2070--2100) time-slices. This dynamically downscaled
+ output was bias-corrected on observed mean statistics and used as
+ input to hydrological models calibrated for eight catchments which
+ are critical water resources in northwest England. Simulated daily
+ flow distributions matched observed from Q95 to Q5, suggesting that
+ RCM data can be used with some confidence to examine future changes
+ in flow regime. Under the SRES A2 (UKCIP02 Medium-High) scenario,
+ annual runoff is projected to increase slightly at high elevation
+ catchments, but reduce by 16% at lower elevations. Impacts on monthly
+ flow distribution are significant, with summer reductions of 40--80%
+ of 1961--90 mean flow, and winter increases of up to 20%. This changing
+ seasonality has a large impact on low flows, with Q95 projected to
+ decrease in magnitude by 40--80% in summer months, with serious consequences
+ for water abstractions and river ecology. In contrast, high flows
+ (> Q5) are projected to increase in magnitude by up to 25%, particularly
+ at high elevation catchments, providing an increased risk of flooding
+ during winter months. These changes will have implications for management
+ of water resources and ecologically important areas under the EU
+ Water Framework Directive},
+ citeulike-article-id = {1131457},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10584-006-9117-3},
+ issn = {0165-0009},
+ posted-at = {2007-02-28 20:45:36},
+ publisher = {Springer},
+ tags = {Downscaling}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{fowler+al2007b,
+ author = {Fowler, H. and Kilsby, C. and Stunell, J.},
+ title = {Modelling the impacts of projected future climate change on water
+ resources in north--west {E}ngland},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {11},
+ pages = {1115--1124},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {Over the last two decades, the frequency of water resource drought
+ in the UK, coupled with the more recent pan-European drought of 2003,
+ has increased concern over changes in climate. Using the UKClP02
+ Medium-High (SRES A2) scenario for 2070-2100, this study investigates
+ the impact of climate change on the operation of the Integrated Resource
+ Zone (IRZ), a complex conjunctive-use water supply system in north-western
+ England. The results indicate that the contribution of individual
+ sources to yield may change substantially but that overall yield
+ is reduced by only 18%. Notwithstanding this significant effect on
+ water supply, the flexibility of the system enables it to meet modelled
+ demand for much of the time under the future climate scenario, even
+ without a change in system management, but at significant expense
+ for pumping additional abstraction from lake and borehole sources.
+ This research provides a basis for the future planning and management
+ of the complex water resource system in the north-west of England.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-11-1115-2007},
+ keywords = {water resources, drought, north-west England, UKCIP02, regional climate
+ model, climate change impacts, REGIONAL CLIMATE, CHANGE SCENARIOS,
+ BASIN HYDROLOGY, RIVER-BASIN, EXTREME RAINFALL, UNITED-STATES, ARNO
+ RIVER, VARIABILITY, PRECIPITATION, RUNOFF},
+ tags = {Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{fowlerwilby2010,
+ author = {Fowler, H. and Wilby, R.},
+ title = {Detecting changes in seasonal precipitation extremes using regional
+ climate model projections: {I}mplications for managing fluvial flood
+ risk},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {46},
+ pages = {W03525},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {There is growing evidence of coherent, global patterns of change in
+ annual precipitation and runoff with high latitudes experiencing
+ increases consistent with climate model projections. This paper describes
+ a methodology for estimating detection times for changes in seasonal
+ precipitation extremes. The approach is illustrated using changes
+ in UK precipitation projected by the European Union PRUDENCE climate
+ model ensemble. We show that because of high variability from year
+ to year and confounding factors, detection of anthropogenic climate
+ change at regional scales is not generally expected for decades to
+ come. Overall, the earliest detection times were found for 10 day
+ winter precipitation totals with 10 year return period in SW England.
+ In this case, formal detection could be possible within a decade
+ from now if the climate model projections are realized. The outlook
+ for changes in summer flash flood risk is highly uncertain. Our analysis
+ further demonstrates that existing precautionary allowances for climate
+ change used for flood management may not be sufficiently robust in
+ NE England and east Scotland. These findings imply that for certain
+ types of flood mechanism, adaptation decisions might have to be taken
+ in advance of formally detected changes in flood risk. This reinforces
+ the case for long-term environmental monitoring and reporting of
+ climate change indices at {\grqq}sentinel� locations},
+ doi = {10.1029/2008WR007636},
+ tags = {Precipitation Changes}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{fox2009,
+ author = {Fox, J.},
+ title = {{Aspects of the Social Organization and Trajectory of the R Project}},
+ journal = {The R Journal},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {1},
+ pages = {5--13},
+ number = {2},
+ month = {December},
+ url = {http://journal.r-project.org/archive/2009-2/RJournal_2009-2_Fox.pdf}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{franchini+al1998,
+ author = {Franchini, M. and Galeati, G. and Berra, S.},
+ title = {Global optimization techniques for the calibration of conceptual
+ rainfall-runoff models},
+ journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
+ year = {1998},
+ volume = {43},
+ pages = {443--458},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {In this study we present the results of the comparison of three different
+ algorithms: the Genetic Algorithm coupled with Sequential Quadratic
+ Programming (GA-SQP), the Pattern Search also coupled with SQP (PS-SQP)
+ and the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE-UA), The analyses were conducted
+ using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model applied both to a single
+ basin and to a complex basin, For both types of basin, a theoretical
+ case without model and data errors was considered, in which the true
+ values of the parameters are known a priori, and several real-world
+ cases where model and data errors exist. With reference to the single
+ basin, the SCE-UA algorithm was the most reliable while the other
+ two algorithms gave solutions equivalent to those of the SCE-UA in
+ the theoretical case, but in the real-world cases they showed an
+ increasing tendency (particularly the PS-SQP) to be trapped in local
+ minima. With reference to the complex basin, none of the three algorithms
+ identified the exact solution in the theoretical case. However, the
+ SCE-UA was the one which systematically approximated it better than
+ the others, In the real-world case its solutions were stable but
+ characterized by many parameter values set at the boundary of their
+ own range. The other two algorithms produced a very unstable set
+ of parameters.},
+ doi = {10.1080/02626669809492137},
+ keywords = {GENETIC ALGORITHM},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{francos+al2003,
+ author = {Francos, A. Elorza, F. and Bouraoui, F. and Bidoglio, G. and Galbiati,
+ L.},
+ title = {Sensitivity analysis of distributed environmental simulation models:
+ understanding the model behaviour in hydrological studies at the
+ catchment scale},
+ journal = {Reliability Engineering \& System Safety},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {79},
+ pages = {205--218},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {The development of new hydrological simulation tools allows for the
+ modelling of large hydrological catchments, with the aim of comprehensive
+ management of the water resources, control of diffuse pollution processes,
+ such as the fate of agricultural fertilizants and finally, with purposes
+ of economical optimization of the crop yields as a function of the
+ expected climate, the watershed characteristics and the socio-economical
+ conditions of the region where the catchment is located. This paper
+ describes the sensitivity analysis of a hydrological distributed
+ model applied in one large European watershed by using a two-step
+ procedure. Firstly, it allows for the consideration of a huge input
+ parameter data set by using an implementation of the Morris screening
+ procedure, eschewing the huge computational requirements arising
+ from the necessary repetitive simulations. In the second step it
+ provides quantitative estimations of sensitivity in terms of variance
+ decomposition procedures based upon the FAST method for both the
+ hydrological and the water quality determinants.},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0951-8320(02)00231-4},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.10.10}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{franks1998,
+ author = {Franks, S. and Gineste, P. and Beven, K. and Merot, P.},
+ title = {On constraining the predcitions of a distributed model: {T}he incorporation
+ of fuzzy estimates of saturated areas into the calibration process},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1998},
+ volume = {34},
+ pages = {787--797},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {Distributed hydrological models are generally overparameterized, resulting
+ in the possibility of multiple parameterizations from many areas
+ of the parameter space providing acceptable fits to observed data.
+ In this study, TOPMODEL parameterizations are conditioned on discharges,
+ and then further conditioned on estimates of saturated areas derived
+ from ERS-I synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images combined with the
+ In (?/tan ?) topographic index, and compared to ground truth saturation
+ measurements made in one small subcatchment. The uncertainty associated
+ with the catchment-wide predictions of saturated area is explicitly
+ incorporated into the conditioning through the weighting of estimates
+ within a fuzzy set framework. The predictive uncertainty associated
+ with the parameterizations is then assessed using the generalized
+ likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology. It is shown
+ that despite the uncertainty in the predictions of saturated area
+ the methodology can reject many previously acceptable parameterizations
+ with the consequence of a marked reduction in the acceptable range
+ of a catchment average transmissivity parameter and of improved predictions
+ of some discharge events.},
+ doi = {10.1029/97WR03041},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{freer1996,
+ author = {Freer, J. and Beven, K. and Ambroise, B.},
+ title = {Bayesian estimation of uncertainty in runoff prediction and the value
+ of data: {A}n application of the {GLUE} approach},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1996},
+ volume = {32},
+ pages = {2161--2173},
+ number = {7},
+ abstract = {This paper addresses the problem of evaluating the predictive uncertainty
+ of TOPMODEL using the Bayesian Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty
+ Estimation (GLUE) methodology in an application to the small Ringelbach
+ research catchment in the Vosges, France. The wide range of parameter
+ sets giving acceptable simulations is demonstrated, and uncertainty
+ bands are presented based on different likelihood measures. It is
+ shown how the distributions of predicted discharges are non-Gaussian
+ and vary in shape through time and with discharge. Updating of the
+ likelihood weights using Bayes equation is demonstrated after each
+ year of record and it is shown how the additional data can be evaluated
+ in terms of the way they constrain the uncertainty bands.},
+ doi = {10.1029/95WR03723},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{freeze1975,
+ author = {Freeze, R.},
+ title = {A stochastic--conceptual analysis of one-dimensional groundwater
+ flow in non-uniform, homogeneus media},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1975},
+ volume = {11},
+ pages = {725-741},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {The most realistic representation of a naturally occurring porous
+ medium is a stochastic set of macroscopic elements in which the values
+ of the three basic hydrogeologic parameters (hydraulic conductivity
+ K, compressibility ?, and porosity n) are defined by frequency distributions.
+ A homogeneous formation under this representation is one in which
+ the frequency distributions do not change through space. All soils
+ and geologic formations, even the ones that are homogeneous, show
+ random variations in the values of the hydrogeological parameters
+ through space; that is, they are nonuniform, and a measure of the
+ nonuniformity is provided by the standard deviation of the frequency
+ distributions. If K and ? are log normally distributed and n is normally
+ distributed, and if we define Y = log K and C = log ?, then the parameters
+ Y, C, and n can be generated from a multivariate normal density function
+ with means ? y , ? c , and ? n , standard deviations ? y , ? c ,
+ and ? n , and correlation coefficients ? yc , ? yn , and ? cn The
+ analysis of groundwater flow in nonuniform media requires a stochastic-conceptual
+ approach in which the effects of stochastic parameter distributions
+ on predicted hydraulic heads are analyzed with the aid of a set of
+ Monte Carlo solutions to the pertinent boundary value problems. In
+ this study, two one-dimensional saturated flow problems are analyzed:
+ steady state flow between two specified heads and transient consolidation
+ of a clay layer. The primary output is the statistical distribution
+ of hydraulic head ?¯, through space and time, as indicated by the
+ mean values ? ¯ ( x , t ) ) and their standard deviations S ?¯(x,
+ t) Results show that the standard deviations of the input hydrogeologic
+ parameters, particularly ? y and ? c , are important index properties;
+ changes in their values lead to different responses for ? ¯ ( x ,
+ t ) ) even when the means ? y , ? c , and ? n are fixed. The degree
+ of uncertainty associated with hydraulic head predictions increases
+ as the degree of nonuniformity of the porous medium increases. For
+ large values of ? y and ? c it becomes virtually impossible to obtain
+ meaningful hydraulic head predictions. For transient flow the output
+ distribution of hydraulic head values is almost never normal; in
+ some cases it approaches a uniform distribution. The results of this
+ study throw into question the validity of the hidden assumption that
+ underlies all deterministic groundwater modeling; namely, that it
+ is possible to select a single value for each flow parameter in a
+ homogeneous but nonuniform medium that is somehow representative
+ and hence define an ‘equivalent’ uniform porous medium. For transient
+ flow there may be no way to define an equivalent medium. The fact
+ that nine index parameters rather than three are required to describe
+ a nonuniform geologic formation, the large uncertainties in predicted
+ hydraulic heads for relatively simple flow problems in nonuniform
+ soils, and the contention that there may be no simple way to define
+ an equivalent uniform porous medium all have important implications
+ in the development of groundwater flow theory and in its most fundamental
+ applications.},
+ doi = {10.1029/WR011i005p00725},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.09.15}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{freni2012,
+ author = {Gabriele Freni and Giorgio Mannina},
+ title = {Uncertainty estimation of a complex water quality model: The influence
+ of Box–Cox transformation on Bayesian approaches and comparison with
+ a non-Bayesian method},
+ journal = {Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C},
+ year = {2012},
+ volume = {42–-44},
+ pages = {31--41},
+ number = {0},
+ abstract = {In urban drainage modelling, uncertainty analysis is of undoubted
+ necessity. However, uncertainty analysis in urban water-quality modelling
+ is still in its infancy and only few studies have been carried out.
+ Therefore, several methodological aspects still need to be experienced
+ and clarified especially regarding water quality modelling. The use
+ of the Bayesian approach for uncertainty analysis has been stimulated
+ by its rigorous theoretical framework and by the possibility of evaluating
+ the impact of new knowledge on the modelling predictions. Nevertheless,
+ the Bayesian approach relies on some restrictive hypotheses that
+ are not present in less formal methods like the Generalised Likelihood
+ Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE). One crucial point in the application
+ of Bayesian method is the formulation of a likelihood function that
+ is conditioned by the hypotheses made regarding model residuals.
+ Statistical transformations, such as the use of Box–Cox equation,
+ are generally used to ensure the homoscedasticity of residuals. However,
+ this practice may affect the reliability of the analysis leading
+ to a wrong uncertainty estimation. The present paper aims to explore
+ the influence of the Box–Cox equation for environmental water quality
+ models. To this end, five cases were considered one of which was
+ the “real†residuals distributions (i.e. drawn from available data).
+ The analysis was applied to the Nocella experimental catchment (Italy)
+ which is an agricultural and semi-urbanised basin where two sewer
+ systems, two wastewater treatment plants and a river reach were monitored
+ during both dry and wet weather periods. The results show that the
+ uncertainty estimation is greatly affected by residual transformation
+ and a wrong assumption may also affect the evaluation of model uncertainty.
+ The use of less formal methods always provide an overestimation of
+ modelling uncertainty with respect to Bayesian method but such effect
+ is reduced if a wrong assumption is made regarding the residuals
+ distribution. If residuals are not normally distributed, the uncertainty
+ is over-estimated if Box–Cox transformation is not applied or non-calibrated
+ parameter is used.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.pce.2011.08.024},
+ issn = {1474-7065},
+ keywords = {Bayesian inference}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{freni+al2009,
+ author = {Gabriele Freni and Giorgio Mannina and Gaspare Viviani},
+ title = {Urban runoff modelling uncertainty: Comparison among Bayesian and
+ pseudo-Bayesian methods},
+ journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {24},
+ pages = {1100--1111},
+ number = {9},
+ abstract = {Urban stormwater quality modelling plays a central role in evaluation
+ of the quality of the receiving water body. However, the complexity
+ of the physical processes that must be simulated and the limited
+ amount of data available for calibration may lead to high uncertainty
+ in the model results. This study was conducted to assess modelling
+ uncertainty associated with catchment surface pollution evaluation.
+ Eight models were compared based on the results of a case study in
+ which there was limited data available for calibration. Uncertainty
+ analysis was then conducted using three different methods: the Bayesian
+ Monte Carlo method, the GLUE pseudo-Bayesian method and the GLUE
+ method revised by means of a formal distribution of residuals between
+ the model and measured data (GLUE_f). The uncertainty assessment
+ of the models enabled evaluation of the advantages and limitations
+ of the three methodologies adopted. The models were then tested using
+ the quantity–quality data gathered for the Fossolo catchment in Bologna,
+ Italy. The results revealed that all of the models evaluated here
+ provided good calibration results, even if the model reliability
+ (in terms of related uncertainty) varied, which suggests the adoption
+ of a specific modelling approach with respect to the others. Additionally,
+ a comparison of uncertainty analysis approaches showed that, regarding
+ the models evaluated here, the classical Bayesian method is more
+ effective at discriminating models according to their uncertainty,
+ but the GLUE approach performs similarly when it is based on the
+ same founding assumptions as the Bayesian method.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2009.03.003},
+ issn = {1364-8152},
+ keywords = {Urban stormwater modelling}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{fritz1981,
+ author = {Fritz, P. and Suzuki, O. and Silva, C. and Salati, E.},
+ title = {Isotope hydrology of groundwaters in the {P}ampa del {T}amarugal,
+ {C}hile},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {1981},
+ volume = {53},
+ pages = {161--184},
+ number = {1--2},
+ abstract = {The water resources in northern Chile are extremely scarce and development
+ is limited by this. This paper discusses the isotope hydrology of
+ groundwaters in the Pampa del Tamarugal — an area of extreme aridity
+ (rainfall < 1 mm/yr.) — whose groundwater resources are mined for
+ the town of Iquique, as well as for industrial and agricultural purposes.
+ The aim of the project was to obtain information on modern recharge
+ and to delineate, if possible recharge environments. To obtain the
+ necessary background information a precipitation survey in the high
+ Andes, as well as spring- and surface-water studies were carried
+ out. The results show that a well-defined meteoric water line exists
+ where ?2H = (7.8 ? 18O + 10.3)%, and altitude effects depend on air-mass
+ movements and cannot be defined without a broader regional and detailed
+ sampling programme. However, it is still possible to assign maximum
+ altitudes of recharge to springs in the Andes and at the eastern
+ border of the Pampa del Tamarugal. Comparison of these data with
+ groundwater compositions show, that these groundwaters originate
+ from infiltrating surface water rather than directly infiltrated
+ precipitation. A dependence of individual groundwater systems on
+ specific quebradas (river valleys) is recognized. However, low 14C
+ activities indicate that most of the waters pumped today are fossil
+ and at least several hundreds if not thousands of years old. Some
+ minor subsurface recharge does occur at the foot of the Andes, especially
+ at Pica where high-altitude waters discharge, but even there groundwater
+ appears to be a diminishing resource.},
+ doi = {10.1016/0022-1694(81)90043-3},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.04.07}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{gomezhernandez2006,
+ author = {G\'omez-Hern\'andez, J.},
+ title = {Complexity},
+ journal = {Ground Water},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {44},
+ pages = {782--785},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {It is difficult to define complexity in modeling. Complexity is often
+ associated with uncertainty since modeling uncertainty is an intrinsically
+ difficult task. However, modeling uncertainty does not require, necessarily,
+ complex models, in the sense of a model requiring an unmanageable
+ number of degrees of freedom to characterize the aquifer. The relationship
+ between complexity, uncertainty, heterogeneity, and stochastic modeling
+ is not simple. Aquifer models should be able to quantify the uncertainty
+ of their predictions, which can be done using stochastic models that
+ produce heterogeneous realizations of aquifer parameters. This is
+ the type of complexity addressed in this article.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1745-6584.2006.00222.x},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{gomezhernandez1989,
+ author = {G\'omez-Hern\'andez, J. and Gorelick, S.},
+ title = {Effective groundwater model parameter values: {I}nfluence of spatial
+ variability of hydraulic conductivity, leakance, and recharge},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1989},
+ volume = {25},
+ pages = {405--419},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {A stochastic simulation approach was used to inspect the influence
+ of spatial variability in aquifer and recharge properties on effective
+ (averaged) groundwater model parameters. A two-dimensional unconfined
+ aquifer model was set up for an area similar to that near Livermore,
+ California. Monte Carlo simulations were generated for different
+ sets of spatial correlation structures assuming stationarity and
+ an exponential semivariogram. For each Monte Carlo realization, groundwater
+ flow was simulated, and estimates of the means and standard deviations
+ of the hydraulic head were obtained. Nine different cases were studied
+ involving different correlation lengths of hydraulic conductivity,
+ conditional simulations, parameter zonation, and spatial recharge
+ distributions. Results indicate that there is no single uniform value
+ of the hydraulic conductivity that reproduces the expected head values.
+ Spatial averaging to obtain effective values was based on the p norm
+ (power norm) which ranges from 1 for the arithmetic mean to ?1 for
+ the harmonic mean, with 0 representing the geometric mean. For the
+ unconditional case the ?0.4 p norm seems to best reproduce the expected
+ values. The ?0.2 p norm gave the best result for the conditional
+ simulation case. If the geometric mean were used instead, the heads
+ would deviate from the expected heads by about 2 m near the wells.
+ Some value between the arithmetic and the geometric means of riverbed
+ leakance will give results close to the expected head values. The
+ arithmetic mean of aerially distributed recharge produced results
+ with small deviations from the expected head values. These particular
+ results may only apply to this modeled system, as the pumping pattern
+ and magnitudes exhibited strong influences on zones of maximum head
+ deviation. The implication of this work is that if an effective hydraulic
+ conductivity is used in a simulation model, it must be selected for
+ a particular set of wells and pumping rates. In an aquifer with significant
+ pumping centers the best effective value for a two-dimensional unconfined
+ flow model is most likely between the geometric and harmonic mean.
+ If the wells are turned off, the effective hydraulic conductivity
+ for that flow model reverts to the geometric mean.},
+ doi = {10.1029/WR025i003p00405},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{gomezhernandez1997,
+ author = {G\'omez-Hern\'andez, J. and Sahuquillo, A. and Capilla, J.},
+ title = {Stochastic simulation of transmissivity fields conditional to both
+ transmissivity and piezometric data: {I}. {T}heory},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {1997},
+ volume = {203},
+ pages = {162--174},
+ number = {1--4},
+ abstract = {The generation of equally likely realizations of transmissivity fields
+ conditional to both transmissivity and piezometric data is achieved
+ using an iterative technique that couples geostatistics and optimization.
+ By conditioning to both transmissivity fields and piezometric data
+ we mean that the transmissivity field generated honours the transmissivity
+ data and that the solution to the flow equation reproduces the measured
+ piezometric heads. By equally likely realizations we mean that all
+ realizations display the same patterns of spatial variability as
+ observed in the field, as opposed to the transmissivity fields obtained
+ by interpolation or by inverse modelling which are oversmooth, unrealistic,
+ representations of the real field. In this regard, any realization
+ could be the real but unknown transmissivity field. To achieve this
+ goal, first a transmissivity field is generated conditional only
+ to the transmissivity data, then the transmissivity field (and possibly
+ the boundary conditions), are modified without destroying the spatial
+ patterns of variability of transmissivity until the piezometric data
+ are also honoured. The methodology is presented for steady-state
+ flow in a confined two-dimensional aquifer. The details of the implementation
+ are given for finite-differences solution over an aquifer discretized
+ in square blocks.},
+ doi = {doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00098-X},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.03.13}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{gaganis2006,
+ author = {Gaganis, P. and Smith, L.},
+ title = {Evaluation of the uncertainty of groundwater model predictions associated
+ with conceptual errors: {A} per--datum approach to model calibration},
+ journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {29},
+ pages = {503-514},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {The effect of systematic model error on the model predictions varies
+ in space and time, and differs for the flow and solute transport
+ components of a groundwater model. The classical single-objective
+ formulation of the inverse problem by its nature cannot capture these
+ characteristics of model error. We introduce an inverse approach
+ that allows the spatial and temporal variability of model error to
+ be evaluated in the parameter space. A set of solutions for model
+ parameters are obtained by this new method that almost exactly satisfies
+ the model equation at each observation point (per-datum calibration).
+ This set of parameter estimates are then used to define a posterior
+ parameter space that may be translated into a probabilistic description
+ of model output to represent the level of confidence in model performance.
+ It is shown that this approach can provide useful information regarding
+ the strengths and limitations of a model as well as the performance
+ of classical calibration procedures.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.advwatres.2005.06.006},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{gaganis2001,
+ author = {Gaganis, P. and Smith, L.},
+ title = {A {B}ayesian approach to the quantification of the effect of model
+ error on the predictions of groundwater models},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {37},
+ pages = {2309--2322},
+ number = {9},
+ abstract = {Errors arising from the imperfect mathematical representation of the
+ structure of a hydrologic system (model error) are not random but
+ systematic. Their effect on model predictions varies in space and
+ time and differs for the flow and solute transport components of
+ a groundwater model. Such errors do not necessarily have any probabilistic
+ properties that can be easily exploited in the construction of a
+ model performance criterion. A Bayesian approach is presented for
+ quantifying model error in the presence of parameter uncertainty.
+ Insight gained in updating the prior information on the model parameters
+ is used to assess the correctness of the model structure, which is
+ defined relative to the accuracy required of the model predictions.
+ Model error is evaluated for each measurement of the dependent variable
+ through an examination of the correctness of the model structure
+ for different accuracy levels. The effect of model error on each
+ dependent variable, which is quantified as a function of location
+ and time, represents a measure of the reliability of the model in
+ terms of each model prediction. This method can be used in identifying
+ possible causes of model error and in discriminating among models
+ in terms of the correctness of the model structure. It also offers
+ an improved description of the uncertainties associated with a modeling
+ exercise that may be useful in risk assessments and decision analyses.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2000WR000001},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{gallagher2007,
+ author = {Gallagher, M. and Doherty, J.},
+ title = {Parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis for a watershed model},
+ journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {22},
+ pages = {1000-1020},
+ number = {7},
+ abstract = {Where numerical models are employed as an aid to environmental management,
+ the uncertainty associated with predictions made by such models must
+ be assessed. A number of different methods are available to make
+ such an assessment. This paper explores the use of three such methods,
+ and compares their performance when used in conjunction with a lumped
+ parameter model for surface water flow (HSPF) in a large watershed.
+ Linear (or first-order) uncertainty analysis has the advantage that
+ it can be implemented with virtually no computational burden. While
+ the results of such an analysis can be extremely useful for assessing
+ parameter uncertainty in a relative sense, and ascertaining the degree
+ of correlation between model parameters, its use in analyzing predictive
+ uncertainty is often limited. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods
+ are far more robust, and can produce reliable estimates of parameter
+ and predictive uncertainty. As well as this, they can provide the
+ modeler with valuable qualitative information on the shape of parameter
+ and predictive probability distributions; these shapes can be quite
+ complex, especially where local objective function optima lie within
+ those parts of parameter space that are considered probable after
+ calibration has been undertaken. Nonlinear calibration-constrained
+ optimization can also provide good estimates of parameter and predictive
+ uncertainty, even in situations where the objective function surface
+ is complex. Furthermore, they can achieve these estimates using far
+ fewer model runs than MCMC methods. However, they do not provide
+ the same amount of qualitative information on the probability structure
+ of parameter space as do MCMC methods, a situation that can be partially
+ rectified by combining their use with an efficient gradient-based
+ search method that is specifically designed to locate different local
+ optima. All methods of parameter and predictive uncertainty analysis
+ discussed herein are implemented using freely-available software.
+ Hence similar studies, or extensions of the present study, can be
+ easily undertaken in other modeling contexts by other modelers.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2006.06.007},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.07.16}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{ganbiftu1996,
+ author = {Gan, {T-Y} and Biftu, G.},
+ title = {Automatic Calibration of Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Models: Optimization
+ Algorithms, Catchment Conditions, and Model Structure},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1996},
+ volume = {32},
+ pages = {3513--3524},
+ number = {12},
+ abstract = {From 32 CRR-catchment cases (combinations from four conceptual rainfall-runoff
+ models (CRR) and eight catchments) calibrated with either two or
+ three optimization methods, (1) the shuffle complex evolution method
+ (SCE-UA), (2) the multiple start Simplex (MSX), and (3) the local
+ Simplex, it seems that all three methods produced parameter sets
+ of comparable, local-optimum quality. Even with comparable performance
+ among the models, some parameter values derived by the three optimization
+ methods for the same CRR-catchment cases are surprisingly different
+ from each other. In addition, parameter sets of SCE-UA or MSX, which
+ often produce marginally better results than the local Simplex at
+ the calibration stage, could end up with worse results at the validation
+ stage. Apparently, given the inherent limitations of calibration
+ data, model inadequacies, and identifiability problems, it is impossible
+ to achieve global convergence in the parameter search. However, other
+ than those for dry catchments such as Ihimbu or Bird Creek, the parameter
+ sets obtained are generally feasible. Both SCE-UA and the local Simplex
+ are viable optimization tools, while MSX is inefficient computationally.
+ SCE-UA can complete the parameter search in one run, while the local
+ Simplex often requires multirun operations to get good results},
+ doi = {10.1029/95WR02195},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{gan+al1997,
+ author = {Gan, {T-Y} and Dlamini, E. and Biftu, G.},
+ title = {Effects of model complexity and structure, data quality, and objective
+ functions on hydrologic modeling},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {1997},
+ volume = {192},
+ pages = {81--103},
+ abstract = {Three medium sized, dry catchments located in Africa and USA were
+ modeled with four or five conceptual rainfall-runoff (CRR) models
+ of different complexity. The models were the Pitman model of South
+ Africa (16 parameters), the Sacramento model of USA (21 parameters),
+ the NAM model of Europe (15 parameters), the Xinanjiang model of
+ China (15 parameters), and the SMAR model of Ireland (nine parameters).
+ Between these models, the Xinanjiang model has been consistently
+ doing better mainly because it is the only model that considers the
+ non-uniform distribution of runoff producing areas to simulate the
+ runoff. On the whole, it seems that standard, good quality hydrologic
+ data can still support modeling of dry catchments with traditional
+ CRR models. The model performance depends more on the model structure,
+ the objective function used in automatic calibration, and data quality,
+ than on model complexity or calibration data length. For relatively
+ dry catchments such as the great Usuthu catchment, wet years should
+ be preferred over dry years for the calibration data. (C) 1997 Elsevier
+ Science B.V.},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0022-1694(96)03114-9},
+ keywords = {RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS, AUTOMATIC CALIBRATION, GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION,
+ CATCHMENTS, ALGORITHMS},
+ tags = {Calibration, conceptual model}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{gassman+al2007,
+ author = {Gassman, P. and Reyes, M. and Green, C. and Arnold, J.},
+ title = {The Soil and Water Assessment Tool: Historical Development, Applications,
+ and Future Research Directions},
+ journal = {Transactions of the ASABE},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {50},
+ pages = {1211--1250},
+ number = {4},
+ note = {Complete document in: http://ideas.repec.org/p/isu/genres/12744.html},
+ abstract = {The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is a continuation
+ of nearly 30 years of modeling efforts conducted by the USDA Agricultural
+ Research Service (ARS). SWAT has gained international acceptance
+ as a robust interdisciplinary watershed modeling tool as evidenced
+ by international SWAT conferences, hundreds of SWAT related papers
+ presented at numerous other scientific meetings, and dozens of articles
+ published in peer reviewed journals. The model has also been adopted
+ as part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Better
+ Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources (BASINS)
+ software package and is being used by many U.S. federal and state
+ agencies, including the USDA within the Conservation Effects Assessment
+ Project (CEAP). At present, over 250 peer reviewed published articles
+ have been identified that report SWAT applications, reviews of SWAT
+ components, or other research that includes SWAT. Many of these peer
+ reviewed articles are summarized here according to relevant application
+ categories such as streamflow calibration and related hydrologic
+ analyses, climate change impacts on hydrology, pollutant load assessments,
+ comparisons with other models, and sensitivity analyses and calibration
+ techniques. Strengths and weaknesses of the model are presented,
+ and recommended research needs for SWAT are also provided.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00477-006{-}0057-2 ASABE},
+ keywords = {Developmental history, Flow analysis, Modeling, SWAT, Water quality},
+ tags = {SWAT}
+}
+
+@BOOK{gelhar1993,
+ title = {Stochastic subsurface hydrology},
+ publisher = {Prentice-Hall, Inc.},
+ year = {1993},
+ author = {Gelhar, L.},
+ pages = {390},
+ address = {New Jersey},
+ edition = {First},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.09.15}
+}
+
+@BOOK{gelman2004,
+ title = {Bayesian data analysis},
+ publisher = {Chapman \& Hall/CRC},
+ year = {2004},
+ author = {Gelman, A. and Carlin, J. and Stern, H. and Rubin, D.},
+ pages = {696},
+ address = {New York},
+ edition = {Second},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{georgakakos2004,
+ author = {Georgakakos, K. and Seo, D.J. and Gupta, H. and Schaake, J. and Butts,
+ M.},
+ title = {Towards the characterization of streamflow simulation uncertainty
+ through multimodel ensembles},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {298},
+ pages = {222-241},
+ number = {1--4},
+ abstract = {Distributed hydrologic modeling holds significant promise for improved
+ estimates of streamflow with high spatial resolution. However, uncertainty
+ in model structure and parameters, which are distributed in space,
+ and in operational weather radar rainfall estimates, which comprise
+ the main input to the models, contributes to significant uncertainty
+ in distributed model streamflow simulations over a wide range of
+ space and time scales. Using the simulations produced for the Distributed
+ Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP), this paper develops and applies
+ sample-path methods to characterize streamflow simulation uncertainty
+ by diverse distributed hydrologic models. The emphasis in this paper
+ is on the model parameter and structure uncertainty given radar rainfall
+ forcing. Multimodel ensembles are analyzed for six application catchments
+ in the Central US to characterize model structure uncertainty within
+ the sample of models (both calibrated and uncalibrated) participating
+ in DMIP. Ensembles from single distributed and lumped models are
+ also used for one of the catchments to provide a basis to characterize
+ the impact of parametric uncertainty versus model structure uncertainty
+ in flow simulation statistics. Two main science questions are addressed:
+ (a) what is the value of multimodel streamflow ensembles in terms
+ of the probabilistic characterization of simulation uncertainty?
+ And (b) how do probabilistic skill measures of multimodel versus
+ single-model ensembles compare? Discussed also are implications for
+ the operational use of streamflow ensembles generated by distributed
+ hydrologic models. The results support the serious consideration
+ of ensemble simulations and predictions created by diverse models
+ in real time flow prediction.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.03.037},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{george1999,
+ author = {George, E.},
+ title = {Comment to ``{B}ayesian model averaging: {A} tutorial'' by {J}ennifer
+ {H}oeting},
+ journal = {Statistical Science},
+ year = {1999},
+ volume = {14},
+ pages = {409--412},
+ number = {4},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23},
+ url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2676806}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{geyer1992,
+ author = {Geyer, C.},
+ title = {Practical {M}arkov chain {M}onte {C}arlo},
+ journal = {Statistical Science},
+ year = {1992},
+ volume = {7},
+ pages = {473--483},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {Markov chain Monte Carlo using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is
+ a general method for the simulation of stochastic processes having
+ probability densities known up to a constant of proportionality.
+ Despite recent advances in its theory, the practice has remained
+ contro- versial. This article makes the case for basing all inference
+ on one long run of the Markov chain and estimating the Monte Carlo
+ error by standard nonparametric methods well-known in the time-series
+ and oper- ations research literature. In passing it touches on the
+ Kipnis-Varadhan central limit theorem for reversible Markov chains,
+ on some new variance estimators, on judging the relative efficiency
+ of competing Monte Carlo schemes, on methods for constructing more
+ rapidly mixing Markov chains and on diagnostics for Markov chain
+ Monte Carlo.},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ refid = {GEYER1992},
+ timestamp = {2008.11.04},
+ url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2246094}
+}
+
+@BOOK{ghosh2006,
+ title = {An introduction to {B}ayesian analysis--{T}heory and methods},
+ publisher = {Springer},
+ year = {2006},
+ author = {Ghosh, J. and Delampady, M. and Samanta, T.},
+ pages = {352},
+ address = {New York},
+ edition = {First},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{giannini2008,
+ author = {Giannini, A. and Biasutti, M. and Verstraete, M.},
+ title = {A climate model-based review of drought in the {Sahel: Desertification,
+ the re-greening and climate change}},
+ journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {64},
+ pages = {119--128},
+ number = {3--4},
+ month = {December},
+ abstract = {We review the evidence that connects drought and desertification in
+ the Sahel with climate change past, present and future. Advances
+ in climate modeling point to the oceans, not land, as the cause of
+ the recent persistence of drought in the Sahel. The current generation
+ of global climate models reproduces the spatial extent, continental
+ in scale, and the timing and duration of the shift to dry conditions
+ that occurred in the late 1960's given knowledge of observed surface
+ oceanic conditions only. The pattern statistically and dynamically
+ associated with drought is one of warming of the tropical oceans,
+ especially the Pacific and Indian Oceans, superimposed on an enhanced
+ warming of the southern compared to the northern hemisphere most
+ evident in the Atlantic. These models, which include a prognostic
+ description of land surface and/or vegetation, albeit crude, indicate
+ that positive feedbacks between precipitation and land surface/cover
+ may act to amplify the ocean-forced component of continental climate.
+ Despite the advances made in understanding the recent past, uncertainty
+ dominates as we move forward in time, to the present, partial greening
+ of the Sahel, and to the future of climate change projections.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.05.004},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.08.10}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{gibelin2003,
+ author = {Gibelin, A. and D\'equ\'e, M.},
+ title = {Anthropogenic climate change over the {Mediterranean region simulated
+ by a global variable resolution model}},
+ journal = {Climate Dynamics},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {20},
+ pages = {327--339},
+ number = {4},
+ month = {February},
+ abstract = {Two 30-year simulations corresponding to 1960-1989 and 2070-2099 have
+ been performed with a variable resolution atmospheric model. The
+ model has a maximum horizontal resolution of 0.5° over the Mediterranean
+ Sea. Simulations are driven by IPCC-B2 scenario radiative forcing.
+ Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are prescribed from monthly observations
+ for the present climate simulation, and from a blend of observations
+ and coupled simulations for the scenario. Another pair of forced
+ atmospheric simulations has been run under these forcings with the
+ same uniform low resolution as the coupled model. Comparisons with
+ observations show that the variable resolution model realistically
+ reproduces the main climate characteristics of the Mediterranean
+ region. At a global scale, changes in latitudinal temperature profiles
+ are similar for the forced and coupled models, justifying the time-slice
+ approach. The 2 m temperature and precipitation responses predict
+ a warming and drying of the Mediterranean region. A comparison with
+ the coupled simulation and forced low-resolution simulation shows
+ that this pattern is robust. The decrease in mean precipitation is
+ associated with a significant decrease in soil wetness, and could
+ involve considerable impact on water resources around the Mediterranean
+ basin.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00382-002-0277-1},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.08.14}
+}
+
+@BOOK{gilks1995,
+ title = {Markov {C}hain {M}onte {C}arlo in practice},
+ publisher = {Chapman \& Hall/CRC},
+ year = {1995},
+ author = {Gilks, W. and Richardson, S. and Spiegelhalter, D.},
+ pages = {512},
+ address = {Boca Raton, Florida, USA},
+ edition = {First},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.11.18}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{gill+al2006,
+ author = {Gill, M. and Kaheil, Y. and Khalil, A. and McKee, M. and Bastidas,
+ L.},
+ title = {Multiobjective particle swarm optimization for parameter estimation
+ in hydrology},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {42},
+ pages = {W07417},
+ number = {7},
+ abstract = {Modeling of complex hydrologic processes has resulted in models that
+ themselves exhibit a high degree of complexity and that require the
+ determination of various parameters through calibration. In the current
+ application we introduce a relatively new global optimization tool,
+ called particle swarm optimization (PSO), that has already been applied
+ in various other fields and has been reported to show effective and
+ efficient performance. The PSO approach initially dealt with a single-objective
+ function but has been extended to deal with multiobjectives in a
+ form called multiobjective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO). The
+ algorithm is modified to account for multiobjective problems by introducing
+ the Pareto rank concept. The new MOPSO algorithm is tested on three
+ case studies. Two test functions are used as the first case study
+ to generate the true Pareto fronts. The approach is further tested
+ for parameter estimation of a well-known conceptual rainfall-runoff
+ model, the Sacramento soil moisture accounting model having 13 parameters,
+ for which the results are very encouraging. We also tested the MOPSO
+ algorithm to calibrate a three-parameter support vector machine model
+ for soil moisture prediction},
+ doi = {10.1029/2005WR004528},
+ tags = {Calibration, PSO}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{giorgi2006,
+ author = {Giorgi, F.},
+ title = {Regional climate modeling: {S}tatus and perspectives},
+ journal = {Journal de Physique IV France},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {139},
+ pages = {101--118},
+ number = {7},
+ abstract = {This paper is presents a concise review of regional climate modeling,
+ from its ensuing stages in the late 1980s to the most recent developments.
+ A tremendous progress has been achieved in improving the performance
+ of regional climate models, which are currently used by a growing
+ research community for a wide range of applications, from process
+ studies to paleoclimate and future climate simulations. Basic concepts
+ underlying the nested modeling technique, along with the current
+ debate on outstanding issues in regional climate modeling, are discussed.
+ Finally, perspectives of future developments in this rapidly evolving
+ research area are briefly outlined. An extensive reference list is
+ provided to support the discussion.},
+ doi = {10.1051/jp4:2006139008},
+ tags = {Multimodel - Ensambles, RCMs}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{giorgi2005,
+ author = {Giorgi, F.},
+ title = {Climate change prediction},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {73},
+ pages = {239--265},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {The concept of climate change prediction in response to anthropogenic
+ forcings at multi-decadal time scales is reviewed. This is identified
+ as a predictability problem with characteristics of both first kind
+ and second kind (due to the slow components of the climate system).
+ It is argued that, because of the non-linear and stochastic aspects
+ of the climate system and of the anthropogenic and natural forcings,
+ climate change contains an intrinsic level of uncertainty. As a result,
+ climate change prediction needs to be approached in a probabilistic
+ way. This requires a characterization and quantification of the uncertainties
+ associated with the sequence of steps involved in a climate change
+ prediction. A review is presented of different approaches recently
+ proposed to produce probabilistic climate change predictions. The
+ additional difficulties found when extending the prediction from
+ the global to the regional scale and the implications that these
+ have on the choice of prediction strategy are finally discussed.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10584-005-6857-4},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, Multimodel - Ensambles}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{giorgi2004,
+ author = {Giorgi, F. and Bi, X. and Pal, J.},
+ title = {Mean, interannual variability and trends in a regional climate change
+ experiment over Europe. {II: cimate change scenarios (2071--2100)}},
+ journal = {Climate Dynamics},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {23},
+ pages = {839--858},
+ number = {7--8},
+ month = {December},
+ abstract = {We present an analysis of climate change over Europe as simulated
+ by a regional climate model (RCM) nested within time-slice atmospheric
+ general circulation model (AGCM) experiments. Changes in mean and
+ interannual variability are discussed for the 30-year period of 2071–2100
+ with respect to the present day period of 1961–1990 under forcing
+ from the A2 and B2 IPCC emission scenarios. In both scenarios, the
+ European region undergoes substantial warming in all seasons, in
+ the range of 1–5.5°C, with the warming being 1–2°C lower in the B2
+ than in the A2 scenario. The spatial patterns of warming are similar
+ in the two scenarios, with a maximum over eastern Europe in winter
+ and over western and southern Europe in summer. The precipitation
+ changes in the two scenarios also show similar spatial patterns.
+ In winter, precipitation increases over most of Europe (except for
+ the southern Mediterranean regions) due to increased storm activity
+ and higher atmospheric water vapor loadings. In summer, a decrease
+ in precipitation is found over most of western and southern Europe
+ in response to a blocking-like anticyclonic circulation over the
+ northeastern Atlantic which deflects summer storms northward. The
+ precipitation changes in the intermediate seasons (spring and fall)
+ are less pronounced than in winter and summer. Overall, the intensity
+ of daily precipitation events predominantly increases, often also
+ in regions where the mean precipitation decreases. Conversely the
+ number of wet days decreases (leading to longer dry periods) except
+ in the winter over western and central Europe. Cloudiness, snow cover
+ and soil water content show predominant decreases, in many cases
+ also in regions where precipitation increases. Interannual variability
+ of both temperature and precipitation increases substantially in
+ the summer and shows only small changes in the other seasons. A number
+ of statistically significant regional trends are found throughout
+ the scenario simulations, especially for temperature and for the
+ A2 scenario. The results from the forcing AGCM simulations and the
+ nested RCM simulations are generally consistent with each other at
+ the broad scale. However, significant differences in the simulated
+ surface climate changes are found between the two models in the summer,
+ when local physics processes are more important. In addition, substantial
+ fine scale detail in the RCM-produced change signal is found in response
+ to local topographical and coastline features.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00382-004-0467-0},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.08.14}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{giorgi+al1994,
+ author = {Giorgi, F. and Hostetler, S. and {Shields Brodeur}, C.},
+ title = {Analysis of the surface hydrology in a regional climate model},
+ journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
+ year = {1994},
+ volume = {120},
+ pages = {161--183},
+ number = {515},
+ abstract = {This paper discusses the surface hydrology of a multi-year simulation
+ of present day climate over the United States (US) conducted with
+ a regional climate model (RegCM) nested within a general circulation
+ model (GCM). The RegCM, which is run with a 60 km gridpoint spacing
+ is interactively coupled with a state-of-the-art surface physics
+ package that includes full surface hydrology calculations (the Biosphere-Atmosphere
+ Transfer Scheme or BATS). The hydrologic budgets of ten regional
+ drainage basins in the US are analysed. Model results are compared
+ with available observations and with results from previous modelling
+ experiments to evaluate the feasibility of using nested RegCM/GCM
+ models for hydrology studies. In our experiment, the model captures
+ the basic seasonality of the basin hydrologic budgets, although the
+ simulated precipitation amounts are too high over the western US
+ and too low over the eastern US. As a result, runoff, snow cover
+ and soil water content are underestimated over the eastern US basins,
+ while evaporation and runoff are overestimated in some of the western
+ US basins. Topographically induced characteristics of precipitation,
+ snow cover and runoff are well simulated over the mountainous western
+ regions. Also well captured is the inter-basin variation of hydrologic
+ budgets which occurs in response to different climatic settings.
+ The springtime snowmelt and peak runoff season generally occurs in
+ the model earlier in the year than is observed. Although our work
+ indicates that the coupled regional modelling system can be useful
+ in applications to hydrological studies, results from this experiment
+ indicate that better accuracy in the simulation of regional climatic
+ variables and more detailed representation of some hydrologic processes
+ would be required before the coupled modelling system could be used
+ to provide accurate assessments of hydrologic responses to climate
+ change},
+ doi = {10.1002/qj.49712051510},
+ tags = {RCMs}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{giorgilionello2008,
+ author = {Giorgi, F. and Lionello, P.},
+ title = {Climate change projections for the {M}editerranean region},
+ journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {63},
+ pages = {90--104},
+ number = {2--3},
+ abstract = {We present a review of climate change projections over the Mediterranean
+ region based on the most recent and comprehensive ensembles of global
+ and regional climate change simulations completed as part of international
+ collaborative projects. A robust and consistent picture of climate
+ change over the Mediterranean emerges, consisting of a pronounced
+ decrease in precipitation, especially in the warm season, except
+ for the northern Mediterranean areas (e.g. the Alps) in winter. This
+ drying is due to increased anticyclonic circulation that yields increasingly
+ stable conditions and is associated with a northward shift of the
+ Atlantic storm track. A pronounced warming is also projected, maximum
+ in the summer season. Inter-annual variability is projected to mostly
+ increase especially in summer, which, along with the mean warming,
+ would lead to a greater occurrence of extremely high temperature
+ events. The projections by the global and regional model simulations
+ are generally consistent with each other at the broad scale. However,
+ the precipitation change signal produced by the regional models shows
+ substantial orographically-induced fine scale structure absent in
+ the global models. Overall, these change signals are robust across
+ forcing scenarios and future time periods, with the magnitude of
+ the signal increasing with the intensity of the forcing. The intensity
+ and robustness of the climate change signals produced by a range
+ of global and regional climate models suggest that the Mediterranean
+ might be an especially vulnerable region to global change},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.09.005},
+ keywords = {PRUDENCE comparison},
+ tags = {Multimodel - Ensambles, Precipitation Changes}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{giorgimearns2003,
+ author = {Giorgi, F. and Mearns, L.},
+ title = {Probability of regional climate change based on the {R}eliability
+ {E}nsemble {A}veraging ({REA}) method},
+ journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {30},
+ pages = {1629},
+ number = {12},
+ abstract = {We present an extension of the Reliability Ensemble Averaging, or
+ REA, method [Giorgi and Mearns, 2002] to calculate the probability
+ of regional climate change exceeding given thresholds based on ensembles
+ of different model simulations. The method is applied to a recent
+ set of transient experiments for the A2 and B2 IPCC emission scenarios
+ with 9 different atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs).
+ Probabilities of surface air temperature and precipitation change
+ are calculated for 10 regions of subcontinental scale spanning a
+ range of latitudes and climatic settings. The results obtained from
+ the REA method are compared with those obtained with a simpler but
+ conceptually similar approach [R{\"a}is{\"a}nen and Palmer, 2001].
+ It is shown that the REA method can provide a simple and flexible
+ tool to estimate probabilities of regional climate change from ensembles
+ of model simulations for use in risk and cost assessment studies},
+ doi = {10.1029/2003GL017130},
+ tags = {Thesis, Multimodel - Ensambles}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{giorgimearns1991,
+ author = {Giorgi, F. and Mearns, L.},
+ title = {Approaches to regional climate change simulation: {A} review},
+ journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
+ year = {1991},
+ volume = {29},
+ pages = {191--216},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {The increasing demand by the scientific community, policy makers,
+ and the public for realistic projections of possible regional impacts
+ of future climate changes has rendered the issue of regional climate
+ simulation critically important. The problem of projecting regional
+ climate changes can be identified as that of representing effects
+ of atmospheric forcings on two different spatial scales: large-scale
+ forcings, i.e., forcings which modify the general circulation and
+ determine the sequence of weather events which characterize the climate
+ regime of a given region (for example, greenhouse gas abundance),
+ and mesoscale forcings, i.e., forcings which modify the local circulations,
+ thereby regulating the regional distribution of climatic variables
+ (for example, complex mountainous systems). General circulation models
+ (GCMs) are the main tools available today for climate simulation.
+ However, they are run and will likely be run for the next several
+ years at resolutions which are too coarse to adequately describe
+ mesoscale forcings and yield accurate regional climate detail. This
+ paper presents a review of these approaches. They can be divided
+ in three broad categories: (1) Purely empirical approaches, in which
+ the forcings are not explicitly accounted for, but regional climate
+ scenarios are constructed by using instrumental data records or paleoclimatic
+ analogues; (2) semiempirical approaches, in which GCMs are used to
+ describe the atmospheric response to large-scale forcings of relevance
+ to climate changes, and empirical techniques account for the effect
+ of mesoscale forcings; and (3) modeling approaches, in which mesoscale
+ forcings are described by increasing the model resolution only over
+ areas of interest. Since they are computationally inexpensive, empirical
+ and semiempirical techniques have been so far more widely used. Their
+ application to regional climate change projection is, however, limited
+ by their own empiricism and by the availability of data sets of adequate
+ quality. More recently, a nested GCM-limited area model methodology
+ for regional climate simulation has been developed, with encouraging
+ preliminary results. As it is physically, rather than empirically,
+ based, the nested modeling framework has a wide range of applications.},
+ doi = {10.1029/90RG02636},
+ tags = {RCMs, Downscaling}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{gleick1986,
+ author = {Gleick, P.},
+ title = {Methods for evaluating the regional hydrologic impacts of global
+ climatic changes},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {1986},
+ volume = {88},
+ pages = {97--116},
+ number = {1--2},
+ abstract = {Concern over changes in global climate caused by rising atmospheric
+ concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases has increased
+ in recent years as our understanding of atmospheric dynamics and
+ global climate systems has improved. Yet despite a better understanding
+ of climatic processes, many of the effects of human-induced climatic
+ changes are still poorly understood. The most profound effect of
+ such climatic changes may be major alterations in regional hydrologic
+ cycles and changes in regional water availability. Unfortunately,
+ these are among the least well-understood impacts. This paper reviews
+ approaches for evaluating the regional hydrologic impacts of global
+ climatic changes and presents a series of criteria for choosing among
+ the different methods. One approach  the use of modified water-balance
+ models  appears to offer significant advantages over other methods
+ in accuracy, flexibility, and ease of use. Water-balance models are
+ especially useful for identifying the regional hydrologic consequences
+ of changes in temeprature, precipitation, and other climatic variables.
+ The ability of water-balance models to incorporate month-to-month
+ or seasonal variations in climate, snowfall and snowmelt algorithms,
+ groundwater fluctuations, soil moisture characteristics, and natural
+ climatic variability makes them especially attractive for water-resource
+ studies of climatic changes. Furthermore, such methods can be combined
+ with state-of-the-art information from general circulation models
+ of the climate and with plausible hypothetical climate-change scenarios
+ to generate information on the water-resource implications of future
+ climatic changes},
+ doi = {10.1016/0022-1694(86)90199-X},
+ tags = {Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{goderniaux+al2009,
+ author = {Goderniaux, P. and Brouy\`ere, S. and Fowler, H. and Blenkinsop,
+ S. and Therrien, R. and Orban, P. and Dassargues, A.},
+ title = {Large scale surface--subsurface hydrological model to assess climate
+ change impacts on groundwater reserves},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {373},
+ pages = {122--138},
+ number = {1--2},
+ abstract = {Estimating the impacts of climate change on groundwater represents
+ one of the most difficult challenges faced by water resources specialists.
+ One difficulty is that simplifying the representation of the hydrological
+ system often leads to discrepancies in projections. This study provides
+ an improved methodology for the estimation of the impacts of climate
+ change on groundwater reserves, where a physically-based surface--subsurface
+ flow model is combined with advanced climate change scenarios for
+ the Geer basin (465 km2), Belgium. Coupled surface--subsurface flow
+ is simulated with the finite element model HydroGeoSphere. The simultaneous
+ solution of surface and subsurface flow equations in HydroGeoSphere,
+ as well as the internal calculation of the actual evapotranspiration
+ as a function of the soil moisture at each node of the defined evaporative
+ zone, improve the representation of interdependent processes like
+ recharge, which is crucial in the context of climate change. More
+ simple models or externally coupled models do not provide the same
+ level of realism. Fully-integrated surface--subsurface flow models
+ have recently gained attention, but have not been used in the context
+ of climate change impact studies. Climate change simulations were
+ obtained from six regional climate model (RCM) scenarios assuming
+ the SRES A2 emission (medium--high) scenario. These RCM scenarios
+ were downscaled using a quantile mapping bias-correction technique
+ that, rather than applying a correction only to the mean, forces
+ the probability distributions of the control simulations of daily
+ temperature and precipitation to match the observed distributions.
+ The same corrections are then applied to RCM scenarios for the future.
+ Climate change scenarios predict hotter and drier summer and warmer
+ and wetter winters. The combined use of an integrated surface--subsurface
+ modelling approach, a spatial representation of the evapotranspiration
+ processes and sophisticated climate change scenarios improves the
+ model realism and projections of climate change impacts on groundwater
+ reserves. For the climatic scenarios considered, the integrated flow
+ simulations show that significant decreases are expected in the groundwater
+ levels (up to 8 m) and in the surface water flow rates (between 9%
+ and 33%) by 2080},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.04.017},
+ issn = {0022-1694},
+ keywords = {Groundwater, Climate change, Integrated model, HydroGeoSphere},
+ tags = {Climate Change, application, Thesis}
+}
+
+@BOOK{goldberg1989,
+ title = {Genetic algorithms in search, optimization and machine learning},
+ publisher = {Addisson-Wesley},
+ year = {1989},
+ author = {Goldberg, D.},
+ address = {Reading (MA)},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.10.11}
+}
+
+@BOOK{goovaerts1997,
+ title = {Geostatistics for natural resources evaluation},
+ publisher = {Oxford University Press},
+ year = {1997},
+ author = {Goovaerts, P.},
+ pages = {483},
+ address = {New York},
+ edition = {First},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.03.27}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{gordon+al2000,
+ author = {Gordon, C. and Cooper, C. and Senior, C. and Banks, H. and Gregory,
+ J. and Johns, T. and Mitchell, J. and Wood, R.},
+ title = {The simulation of {SST}, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports
+ in a version of the {H}adley {C}entre coupled model without flux
+ adjustments},
+ journal = {Climate Dynamics},
+ year = {2000},
+ volume = {16},
+ pages = {147--168},
+ number = {2--3},
+ abstract = {Results are presented from a new version of the Hadley Centre coupled
+ model (HadCM3) that does not require flux adjustments to prevent
+ large climate drifts in the simulation. The model has both an improved
+ atmosphere and ocean component. In particular, the ocean has a 1.25°×1.25°
+ degree horizontal resolution and leads to a considerably improved
+ simulation of ocean heat transports compared to earlier versions
+ with a coarser resolution ocean component. The model does not have
+ any spin up procedure prior to coupling and the simulation has been
+ run for over 400 years starting from observed initial conditions.
+ The sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice simulation are shown
+ to be stable and realistic. The trend in global mean SST is less
+ than 0.009°C per century. In part, the improved simulation is a
+ consequence of a greater compatibility of the atmosphere and ocean
+ model heat budgets. The atmospheric model surface heat and momentum
+ budget are evaluated by comparing with climatological ship-based
+ estimates. Similarly the ocean model simulation of poleward heat
+ transports is compared with direct ship-based observations for a
+ number of sections across the globe. Despite the limitations of the
+ observed datasets, it is shown that the coupled model is able to
+ reproduce many aspects of the observed heat budget.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s003820050010},
+ keywords = {HadCM3},
+ tags = {Climate Models}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{gosain+al2006,
+ author = {Gosain, A. and Rao, S. and Basuray, D.},
+ title = {Climate change impact assessment on hydrology of {I}ndian river basin},
+ journal = {Current Science},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {90},
+ pages = {346--353},
+ number = {3},
+ tags = {SWAT, Climate Change},
+ url = {http://www.ias.ac.in/currsci/feb102006/346.pdf}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{gosling+al2011,
+ author = {Gosling, S. and Taylor, R. and Arnell, N. and Todd, M.},
+ title = {A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on
+ river runoff from global and ctachment-scale hydrological models},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {15},
+ pages = {279--294},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate
+ change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological
+ model, a global hydrological model (GHM) and catchment-scale hydrological
+ models (CHM). Analyses are conducted for six catchments that are
+ global in coverage and feature strong contrasts in spatial scale
+ as well as climatic and developmental conditions. These include the
+ Liard (Canada), Mekong (SE Asia), Okavango (SW Africa), Rio Grande
+ (Brazil), Xiangxi (China) and Harper's Brook (UK). A single GHM (Mac-PDM.09)
+ is applied to all catchments whilst different CHMs are applied for
+ each catchment. The CHMs include SLURP v. 12.2 (Liard), SLURP v.
+ 12.7 (Mekong), Pitman (Okavango), MGB-IPH (Rio Grande), AV-SWAT-X
+ 2005 (Xiangxi) and Cat-PDM (Harper's Brook). The CHMs typically simulate
+ water resource impacts based on a more explicit representation of
+ catchment water resources than that available from the GHM and the
+ CHMs include river routing, whereas the GHM does not. Simulations
+ of mean annual runoff, mean monthly runoff and high (Q5) and low
+ (Q95) monthly runoff under baseline (1961–1990) and climate change
+ scenarios are presented. We compare the simulated runoff response
+ of each hydrological model to (1) prescribed increases in global-mean
+ air temperature of 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0 and 6.0 °C relative to
+ baseline from the UKMO HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM) to explore
+ response to different amounts of climate forcing, and (2) a prescribed
+ increase in global-mean air temperature of 2.0 °C relative to baseline
+ for seven GCMs to explore response to climate model structural uncertainty.
+ We find that the differences in projected changes of mean annual
+ runoff between the two types of hydrological model can be substantial
+ for a given GCM (e.g. an absolute GHM-CHM difference in mean annual
+ runoff percentage change for UKMO HadCM3 2 °C warming of up to 25%),
+ and they are generally larger for indicators of high and low monthly
+ runoff. However, they are relatively small in comparison to the range
+ of projections across the seven GCMs. Hence, for the six catchments
+ and seven GCMs we considered, climate model structural uncertainty
+ is greater than the uncertainty associated with the type of hydrological
+ model applied. Moreover, shifts in the seasonal cycle of runoff with
+ climate change are represented similarly by both hydrological models,
+ although for some catchments the monthly timing of high and low flows
+ differs. This implies that for studies that seek to quantify and
+ assess the role of climate model uncertainty on catchment-scale runoff,
+ it may be equally as feasible to apply a GHM (Mac-PDM.09 here) as
+ it is to apply a CHM, especially when climate modelling uncertainty
+ across the range of available GCMs is as large as it currently is.
+ Whilst the GHM is able to represent the broad climate change signal
+ that is represented by the CHMs, we find however, that for some catchments
+ there are differences between GHMs and CHMs in mean annual runoff
+ due to differences in potential evapotranspiration estimation methods,
+ in the representation of the seasonality of runoff, and in the magnitude
+ of changes in extreme (Q5, Q95) monthly runoff, all of which have
+ implications for future water management issues.},
+ doi = {10 5194/hess-15-279-2011},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.04.27}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{goswamioconnor2007,
+ author = {Goswami, M. and O'connor, K.},
+ title = {Comparative assessment of six automatic optimization techniques for
+ calibration of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model},
+ journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {52},
+ pages = {432--449},
+ abstract = {In this application-based study, six automated strategies of parameter
+ optimization are used for calibration of the conceptual soil moisture
+ accounting and routing (SMAR) model for rainfall-runoff simulation
+ in two catchments, one small and the other large. The methods used
+ are: the genetic algorithm, particle swarm optimization, Rosenbrock's
+ technique, shuffled complex evolution of the University of Arizona,
+ simplex search, and simulated annealing. A comparative assessment
+ is made using the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency index and the mean
+ relative error (MRE) to evaluate the performance of each optimization
+ method. It is found that the degree of variation of the values of
+ the water balance parameters is generally less for the small catchment
+ than for the large one. In the case of both catchments, the probabilistic
+ global population-based optimization method of simulated annealing
+ is considered best in terms of having the least variability of parameter
+ values in successive tests, thereby alleviating the phenomenon of
+ equifinality in parameter optimization, and also in producing the
+ lowest MRE in verification.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2005WR004528.},
+ keywords = {optimization, SMAR, genetic algorithm, Rosenbrock, simplex, particle
+ swarm optimization, simulated annealing, shuffled complex evolution,
+ PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATION, SHUFFLED COMPLEX EVOLUTION, GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION,
+ GENETIC ALGORITHM, RIVER, MINIMIZATION, IDENTIFICATION, SIMULATION,
+ STRATEGIES, CATCHMENTS},
+ tags = {Calibration, PSO}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{govendereverson2005,
+ author = {Govender, M. and Everson, C.},
+ title = {Modelling streamflow from two small {S}outh {A}frican experimental
+ catchments using the {SWAT} model},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {19},
+ pages = {683--692},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {Increasing demand for timber products results in the expansion of
+ commercial afforestation in South Africa. The conversion of indigenous
+ seasonally dormant grassland to evergreen forests results in increased
+ transpiration and ultimately a reduction in catchment runoff, creating
+ a negative impact on the country's scarce water supplies. In order
+ to assist managers in the decision-making processes it is important
+ to be able to accurately assess and predict hydrological processes,
+ and the impact that land use change will have on water resources.
+ The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) provides a means of performing
+ these assessments. One of the key strengths of the SWAT model lies
+ in its ability to model the relative impacts of changes in management
+ practices, climate and vegetation on water quantity and quality.
+ The aim of this study was to determine if the SWAT model could reasonably
+ simulate hydrological processes in daily time steps from two small
+ South African catchments. To verify the SWAT model a grassland (C
+ VIgrass) and Pinus patula afforested catchment (C IIpine) were selected
+ from the Cathedral Peak hydrological research station in the KwaZulu
+ Natal Drakensberg mountains. These catchments were chosen because
+ of the availability of detailed hydrological records and suitable
+ land use. Observed and simulated streamflow for C VIgrass and C IIpine
+ were compared. When model fits of observed and simulated streamflow
+ for C VIgrass were acceptable, this parameter set was then used in
+ the configuration of C IIpine. Results show that the model performs
+ well for C VIgrass with reasonable agreement between modelled and
+ observed data (R2 = 0{$\cdot$}68). Comparisons for C IIpine show
+ a total oversimulation of streamflow for the period 1950 to 1965,
+ with deviations between observed and modelled data increasing from
+ 1959 to 1965, due to the model not accounting for the increase in
+ ET brought about by the maturing pine plantation},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.5621},
+ keywords = {SWAT model, streamflow, evaporation, land use change, forest growth,
+ verification, PEST},
+ tags = {Calibration, SWAT}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{graham+al2007a,
+ author = {Graham, L. and Andr\'easson, J. and Carlsson, B.},
+ title = {Assessing climate change impacts on hydrology from an ensemble of
+ regional climate models, model scales and linking methods--{A} case
+ study on the {L}ule {R}iver basin},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {81},
+ pages = {293--307},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {This paper investigates how using different regional climate model
+ (RCM) simulations affects climate change impacts on hydrology in
+ northern Europe using an offline hydrological model. Climate change
+ scenarios from an ensemble of seven RCMs, two global climate models
+ (GCMs), two global emissions scenarios and two RCMs of varying resolution
+ were used. A total of 15 climate change simulations were included
+ in studies on the Lule River basin in Northern Sweden. Two different
+ approaches to transfer climate change from the RCMs to hydrological
+ models were tested. A rudimentary estimate of change in laydropower
+ potential on the Lule River due to climate change was also made.
+ The results indicate an overall increase in river flow, earlier spring
+ peak flows and an increase in hydropower potential. The two approaches
+ for transferring the signal of climate change to the hydrological
+ impacts model gave similar mean results, but considerably different
+ seasonal dynamics, a result that is highly relevant for other types
+ of climate change impacts studies.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10584-006-9215-2},
+ keywords = {WATER-RESOURCES MANAGEMENT, SOUTHERN SWEDEN, PERSPECTIVE},
+ tags = {Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{graham+al2007b,
+ author = {Graham, L. and Hagemann, S. and Jaun, S. and Beniston, M.},
+ title = {On interpreting hydrological change from regional climate models},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {81},
+ pages = {97--122},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {Although representation of hydrology is included in all regional climate
+ models (RCMs), the utility of hydrological results from RCMs varies
+ considerably from model to model. Studies to evaluate and compare
+ the hydrological components of a suite of RCMs and their use in assessing
+ hydrological impacts from future climate change were carried out
+ over Europe. This included using different methods to transfer RCM
+ runoff directly to river discharge and coupling different RCMs to
+ offline hydrological models using different methods to transfer the
+ climate change signal between models. The work focused on drainage
+ areas to the Baltic Basin, the Bothnian Bay Basin and the Rhine Basin.
+ A total of 20 anthropogenic climate change scenario simulations from
+ 11 different RCMs were used. One conclusion is that choice of GCM
+ (global climate model) has a larger impact on projected hydrological
+ change than either selection of emissions scenario or RCM used for
+ downscaling.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10584-006-9217-0},
+ tags = {Climate Models}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{graham1989a,
+ author = {Graham, W. and {McLaughlin}, D.},
+ title = {Stochastic analysis of nonstationary subsurface solute transport.
+ 1. {U}nconditional moments},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1989},
+ volume = {25},
+ pages = {215--232},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {This paper applies stochastic methods to the analysis and prediction
+ of solute transport in heterogeneous saturated porous media. Partial
+ differential equations for three unconditional ensemble moments (the
+ concentration mean, concentration covariance, and velocity concentration
+ cross covariance) are derived by applying perturbation techniques
+ to the governing transport equation for a conservative solute. Concentration
+ uncertainty is assumed to be the result of unmodeled small-scale
+ fluctuations in a steady state velocity field. The moment expressions,
+ which describe how each moment evolves over time and space, resemble
+ the classic deterministic advection-dispersion equation and can be
+ solved using similar methods. A solution procedure based on a Galerkin
+ finite element algorithm is illustrated with a hypothetical two-dimensional
+ example. For this example the required steady state velocity statistics
+ are obtained from an infinite domain spectral solution of the stochastic
+ groundwater flow equation. The perturbation solution is shown to
+ reproduce the statistics obtained from a Monte Carlo simulation quite
+ well for a natural log conductivity standard deviation of 0.5 and
+ moderately well for a natural log conductivity standard deviation
+ of 1.0. The computational effort required for a perturbation solution
+ is significantly less than that required for a Monte Carlo solution
+ of acceptable accuracy. Sensitivity analyses conducted with the perturbation
+ approach provide qualitative confirmation of a number of results
+ obtained by other investigators for more restrictive special cases.},
+ doi = {10.1029/WR025i002p00215},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.09.11}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{graham1989b,
+ author = {Graham, W. and {McLaughlin}, D.},
+ title = {Stochastic analysis of nonstationary subsurface solute transport.
+ 2. {C}onditional moments},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1989},
+ volume = {25},
+ pages = {2331--2355},
+ number = {11},
+ abstract = {Stochastic analyses of subsurface transport indicate that the concentration
+ distributions of individual solute plumes may deviate significantly
+ from those predicted by unconditional ensemble statistics, particularly
+ in near-source regions. This paper presents a method for developing
+ improved concentration predictions which are tailored to site-specific
+ conditions. The improved predictions are obtained by conditioning
+ ensemble moments on field observations of log hydraulic conductivity,
+ head, and solute concentration. The conditional moments are obtained
+ from a distributed parameter Kaiman filter which is recursively linearized
+ about the most recent estimates of solute concentration and velocity.
+ The conditioning procedure is illustrated for two synthetic random
+ solute plumes. Reasonably good estimates of the solute concentration
+ distributions are obtained by conditioning the ensemble moments on
+ a small number of measurements located in regions of high concentration
+ uncertainty. The sampling networks adapt to the unique characteristics
+ of each plume as they evolve over time. The example indicates that
+ it is important to capture the dominant trends of the velocity field
+ at as early a time as possible. As more measurements become available,
+ advection accounts for a greater portion of small-scale velocity
+ variability, and the magnitude of the macrodispersion term diminishes.
+ This is reflected in the behavior of the conditional ensemble moments.},
+ doi = {10.1029/WR025i011p02331},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.09.11}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{grayson+al2002,
+ author = {Grayson, R. and Bloschl, G. and Western, A. and Mcmahon, T.},
+ title = {Advances in the use of observed spatial patterns of catchment hydrological
+ response},
+ journal = {Advances In Water Resources},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {25},
+ pages = {1313--1334},
+ abstract = {Over the past two decades there have been repeated calls for the collection
+ of new data for use in developing hydrological science. The last
+ few years have begun to bear fruit from the seeds sown by these calls,
+ through increases in the availability and utility of remote sensing
+ data, as well as the execution of campaigns in research catchments
+ aimed at providing new data for advancing hydrological understanding
+ and predictive capability. In this paper we discuss some philosophical
+ considerations related to model complexity, data availability and
+ predictive performance, highlighting the potential of observed patterns
+ in moving the science and practice of catchment hydrology forward.
+ We then review advances that have arisen from recent work on spatial
+ patterns, including in the characterisation of spatial structure
+ and heterogeneity, and the use of patterns for developing, calibrating
+ and testing distributed hydrological models. We illustrate progress
+ via examples using observed patterns of snow cover, runoff occurrence
+ and soil moisture. Methods for the comparison of patterns are presented,
+ illustrating how they can be used to assess hydrologically important
+ characteristics of model performance. These methods include point-to-point
+ comparisons, Spatial relationships between errors and landscape parameters,
+ transects, and optimal local alignment. It is argued that the progress
+ made to date augers well for future developments, but there is scope
+ for improvements in several areas. These include better quantitative
+ methods for pattern comparisons, better use of pattern information
+ in data assimilation and modelling, and a call for improved archiving
+ of data from field studies to assist in comparative studies for generalising
+ results and developing fundamental understanding. (C) 2002 Elsevier
+ Science Ltd. All rights reserved.},
+ doi = {S0309-1708(02)00060-X},
+ keywords = {SOIL-MOISTURE PATTERNS, RAIN-FOREST CATCHMENT, SNOW COVER PATTERNS,
+ IMPROVED CALIBRATION, BAYESIAN-ESTIMATION, RUNOFF PREDICTION, FLUX
+ MEASUREMENTS, ALPINE CATCHMENT, SOURCE AREAS, DATA SET},
+ tags = {Applications}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{greenvangriensven2008,
+ author = {Green, C. and {van Griensven}, A.},
+ title = {Autocalibration in hydrologic modeling: Using {SWAT2005} in small-scale
+ watersheds},
+ journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {23},
+ pages = {422--434},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {SWAT is a physically based model that can simulate water quality and
+ quantity at the watershed scale. Due to many of the processes involved
+ in the manual- or autocalibration of model parameters and the knowledge
+ of realistic input values, calibration can become difficult. An autocalibration-
+ sensitivity analysis procedure was embedded in SWAT version 2005
+ (SWAT2005) to optimize parameter processing. This embedded procedure
+ is applied to six small-scale watersheds (subwatersheds) in the central
+ Texas Blackland Prairie. The objective of this study is to evaluate
+ the effectiveness of the autocalibration-sensitivity analysis procedures
+ at small-scale watersheds (4.0-8.4 ha). Model simulations are completed
+ using two data scenarios: (1) 1 year used for parameter calibration;
+ (2) 5 years used for parameter calibration. The impact of manual
+ parameter calibration versus autocalibration with manual adjustment
+ on model simulation results is tested. The combination of autocalibration
+ tool parameter values and manually adjusted parameters for the 2000-2004
+ simulation period resulted in the highest E-NS and R-2 values for
+ discharge; however, the same 5-year period yielded better overall
+ E-NS, R-2 and P-values for the simulation values that were manually
+ adjusted. The disparity is most likely due to the limited number
+ of parameters that are included in this version of the autocalibration
+ tool (i.e. Nperco, Pperco. and nitrate). Overall, SWAT2005 simulated
+ the hydrology and the water quality constituents at the subwatershed-scale
+ more adequately when all of the available observed data were used
+ for model simulation as evidenced by statistical measure when both
+ the autocalibration and manually adjusted parameters were used in
+ the simulation. Published by Elsevier Ltd.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2007.06.002},
+ keywords = {SWAT, hydrologic modeling, autocalibration, watershed, nutrients,
+ sediment, POULTRY LITTER FERTILIZATION, RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS, SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS,
+ AGRICULTURAL PHOSPHORUS, GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION, CATCHMENT SCALE, ASSESSMENT-TOOL,
+ QUALITY, RIVER, MANAGEMENT},
+ tags = {SWAT, Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{groves+al2008,
+ author = {Groves, D. and Yates, D. and Tebaldi, C.},
+ title = {Developing and applying uncertain global climate change projections
+ for regional water management planning},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {44},
+ pages = {W12413},
+ abstract = {The authors of this report are grateful for the financial support
+ received from the National Science Foundation (grant SES-0345925)
+ and from NCAR Weather and Climate Impacts Assessment program. NCAR
+ is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. The authors also
+ acknowledge the modeling groups, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis
+ and Intercomparison (PCMDI), and the WCRP's Working Group on Coupled
+ Modelling (WGCM) for their roles in making available the WCRP CMIP3
+ multimodel data set. Support of this data set is provided by the
+ Office of Science, U. S. Department of Energy. This paper reports
+ on work that received substantive assistance from RAND colleagues
+ Robert Lempert, Debra Knopman, Sandra Berry, and Lynne Wainfan. The
+ case study analysis would not have been possible without the support
+ of Martha Davis and Richard Atwater of the IEUA.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2008WR006964},
+ keywords = {PRIORITY-DRIVEN, CHANGE IMPACTS, DEMAND-DRIVEN, SCENARIOS, CALIFORNIA,
+ RESOURCES, DECISIONS, VARIABLES, WEAP21},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, Multimodel - Ensambles}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{gubian+al2012,
+ author = {Gubian, S. and Xiang, Y. and Suomela, B. and Hoeng, J.},
+ title = {{Generalized Simulated Annealing - GenSA Package 1.0.3 }},
+ institution = {{R Foundation for Statistical Computing}},
+ year = {2012},
+ abstract = {This package implements a function that searches for global minimum
+ of a very complex non-linear objective function with a very large
+ number of optima.},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.09.18},
+ url = {http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/GenSA/GenSA.pdf}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{gudmundsson+al2011b,
+ author = {Gudmundsson, L. and Tallaksen, L. and Stahl, K.},
+ title = {{Spatial cross-correlation patterns of European low, mean and high
+ flows}},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {25},
+ pages = {1035--1045},
+ number = {7},
+ abstract = {Low and high flows are associated with different hydrological processes.
+ High flows correspond to the direct response of catchments to water
+ input, whereas low flows occur in pronged dry periods and are governed
+ by depleting storages. Therefore, the inter-annual dynamics of high
+ and low flows are often considered to be independent. To shed light
+ on this assumption, we analysed a pan-European dataset of 615 streamflow
+ records, summarized as time series of annual streamflow percentiles
+ (5th, 10th, …, 95th). The analysis was based on comparing the spatial
+ cross-correlation patterns derived from the different percentile
+ series. Their interrelation was visualized by projecting them into
+ a low-dimensional space. We found that large parts of the cross-correlations
+ of the percentile series can be summarized by one dominating component.
+ This component represents geographical continuous regions in Europe
+ of correlated streamflow. Departures from this mean pattern occurred
+ for low and high flows and were characterized by the corresponding
+ spatial correlation functions. Generally, spatial correlations appear
+ to be stronger for high flows than for mean flows, particularly for
+ short distances (<400 km). Low flows, on the other hand, have the
+ lowest spatial correlations for short distances. For longer distances
+ (>800 km), this pattern reverses and the spatial correlation of low
+ flows become largest. This discrepancy between low and high flows
+ suggests that hydrological systems are more homogeneously linked
+ to climatic fluctuations under wet conditions. Under dry conditions,
+ local catchment properties appear to play a larger role in translating
+ climatic fluctuations into hydrological response.},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.7807},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.07.05}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{gudmundsson+al2011a,
+ author = {Gudmundsson, L. and Tallaksen, L. M. and Stahl, K. and Fleig, A.
+ K.},
+ title = {Low-frequency variability of European runoff},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {15},
+ pages = {2853--2869},
+ number = {9},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-15-2853-2011}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{guinot+al2011,
+ author = {Guinot, V. and Cappelaere, B. and Delenne, C. and Ruelland, D.},
+ title = {Objective Functions for Conceptual Hydrological Model Calibration:
+ Theoretical Analysis of Distance- and Weak Form-Based Functions},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {401},
+ pages = {1--13},
+ number = {1--2},
+ note = {ARTICLE in Press, Accepted Manuscript -},
+ abstract = {Calibrating conceptual hydrological models is often done via the optimization
+ of objective functions serving as a measure of model performance.
+ Most of the objective functions used in the hydrological literature
+ can be classified into distance- and weak form-based objective functions.
+ Distance- and weak form-based objective functions can be seen respectively
+ as generalizations of the square error and balance error. An analysis
+ of the objective functions shows that: (i) the calibration problem
+ is transformed from an optimization problem with distance-based objective
+ functions into a root finding problem for weak form-based functions;
+ (ii) weak form-based objective functions are essentially less prone
+ to local extrema than distance-based functions; (iii) consequently,
+ they allow simple gradient-based methods to be used; (iv) parameter
+ redundancy can be assessed very simply by superimposing the contour
+ lines or comparing the gradients of two objective functions of similar
+ nature in the parameter space; (v) simple guidelines can be defined
+ for the selection of the calibration variables in a conceptual hydrological
+ model. The theoretical results are illustrated by two simple test
+ cases. Weak form-based approaches offer the potential for better-posed
+ calibration problems, through the use of a number of independent
+ criteria that matches the dimension of the identification problem.
+ In contrast with distance-based objective functions, they do not
+ have the inconvenience of solution non-uniqueness. Finally, the need
+ for models with internal variables bearing a physical meaning is
+ acknowledged.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.02.004},
+ highlights = {A theoretical analysis of distance-based and weak form-based objective
+ functions for conceptual hydrological models is carried out * Weak
+ form-based objective functions are shown to yield better-posed calibration
+ problems than distance-based functions * Practical guidelines are
+ proposed for optimal model calibration * A simple parameter redundancy
+ test is proposed * An estimate is proposed for the length of the
+ simulation warm-up period},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{gullentops2001,
+ author = {Gullentops, F. and Bogemans, F. and {De Moor}, G. and Palissen, E.
+ and Pissart, A.},
+ title = {Quaternary lithostratigraphic units ({B}elgium)},
+ journal = {Geologica Belgica},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {4},
+ pages = {153--164},
+ number = {1--2},
+ abstract = {The lithostratigraphic classification of the Quaternary deposits is
+ based on the genesis of the sediments. The distinguished environments
+ are marine - estuarine, fluvial, eolian and slope. The marine - estuarine
+ deposits are restricted to certain time-intervals within the Quaternary
+ and are limited to the northern part of Belgium. Fluvial deposits
+ are found throughout the Quaternary. On the basis of the sedimentological
+ - lithological differentials within the Meuse basin and the Schelde
+ basin a bipartite subdivision of the fluvial deposits is introduced.
+ Eolian deposits are differentiated on the basis of their grain size
+ distribution, namely sand and silt. The sandy deposits are accumulated
+ in the northern part of Belgium, whereas loess is deposited in the
+ more southern part of the country. Slope deposits are not restricted
+ regionally neither temporally.},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ refid = {GULLENTOPS2001},
+ timestamp = {2008.11.04},
+ url = {http://popups.ulg.ac.be/Geol/document.php?id=1965}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{gupta+al1999,
+ author = {Gupta, H. and Bastidas, L. and Sorooshian, S. and Shuttleworth, W.
+ and Yang, Z.},
+ title = {Parameter estimation of a land surface scheme using multicriteria
+ methods},
+ journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
+ year = {1999},
+ volume = {104},
+ pages = {19491--19503},
+ number = {D16},
+ abstract = {Attempts to create models of surface-atmosphere interactions with
+ greater physical realism have resulted in land surface schemes (LSS)
+ with large numbers of parameters. The hope has been that these parameters
+ can be assigned typical values by inspecting the literature. The
+ potential for using the various observational data sets that are
+ now available to extract plot-scale estimates for the parameters
+ of a complex LSS via advanced parameter estimation methods developed
+ for hydrological models is explored in this paper. Results are reported
+ for two case studies using data sets of typical quality but very
+ different location and climatological regime (ARM-CART and Tucson).
+ The traditional single-criterion methods were found to be of limited
+ value. However, a multicriteria approach was found to be effective
+ in constraining the parameter estimates into physically plausible
+ ranges when observations on at least one appropriate heat flux and
+ one properly selected state variable are available.},
+ doi = {10.1029/1999JD900154},
+ keywords = {RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS, ATMOSPHERE TRANSFER SCHEME, GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION,
+ HYDROLOGIC-MODELS, SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS, CALIBRATION, PREDICTIONS,
+ SITE},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@INBOOK{gupta+al2005,
+ author = {Gupta, H. and Beven, K. and Wagener, T.},
+ editor = {M.G. Anderson},
+ title = {Model calibration and uncertainty estimation},
+ year = {2005},
+ abstract = {All rainfall-runoff models are, by definition, simplifications of
+ the real-world system under investigation. The model components are
+ aggregated descriptions of real-world hydrologic processes. One consequence
+ of this is that the model parameters often do not represent directly
+ measurable entities, but must be estimated using measurements of
+ the system response through a process known as model calibration.
+ The objective of this calibration process is to obtain a model with
+ the following characteristics: (i) the input-state-output behavior
+ of the model is consistent with the measurements of catchment behavior,
+ (ii) the model predictions are accurate (i.e. they have negligible
+ bias) and precise (i.e. the prediction uncertainty is relatively
+ small), and (iii) the model structure and behavior are consistent
+ with current hydrologic understanding of reality. This article describes
+ the historic development leading to current views on model calibration,
+ and the algorithms and techniques that have been developed for estimating
+ parameters, thereby enabling the model to mimic the behavior of the
+ hydrologic system. Manual techniques as well as automatic algorithms
+ are addressed. The automatic approaches range from purely random
+ techniques, to local and global search algorithms. An overview of
+ multiobjective and recursive algorithms is also presented. Although
+ it would be desirable to reduce the total output prediction error
+ to zero (i.e. the difference between observed and simulated system
+ behavior) this is generally impossible owing to the unavoidable uncertainties
+ inherent in any rainfall-runoff modeling procedure. These uncertainties
+ stem mainly from the inability of calibration procedures to uniquely
+ identify a single optimal parameter set, from measurement errors
+ associated with the system input and output, and from model structural
+ errors arising from the aggregation of real-world processes into
+ a mathematical model. Some commonly used approaches to estimate these
+ uncertainties and their impacts on the model predictions are discussed.
+ The article ends with a brief discussion about the current status
+ of calibration and how well we are able to represent the effects
+ of uncertainty in the modeling process, and some potential directions.},
+ keywords = {rainfall-runoff modeling, model calibration, model identification,
+ optimization, uncertainty estimation, parameter uncertainty, structural
+ uncertainty, data uncertainty},
+ optannote = {Model calibration and uncertainty estimation. In: Anderson, M.G. (Ed.),
+ Encyclopedia of Hydrological Sciences, John Wiley \& Sons Ltd., Chichester,
+ UK.},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{gupta+al2009,
+ author = {Gupta, H. and Kling, H. and Yilmaz, K. and Martinez, G.},
+ title = {Decomposition of the mean squared error and {NSE} performance criteria:
+ Implications for improving hydrological modelling},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {377},
+ pages = {80--91},
+ number = {1-2},
+ abstract = {The mean squared error (MSE) and the related normalization, the Nash{--}Sutcliffe
+ efficiency (NSE), are the two criteria most widely used for calibration
+ and evaluation of hydrological models with observed data. Here, we
+ present a diagnostically interesting decomposition of NSE (and hence
+ MSE), which facilitates analysis of the relative importance of its
+ different components in the context of hydrological modelling, and
+ show how model calibration problems can arise due to interactions
+ among these components. The analysis is illustrated by calibrating
+ a simple conceptual precipitation-runoff model to daily data for
+ a number of Austrian basins having a broad range of hydro-meteorological
+ characteristics. Evaluation of the results clearly demonstrates the
+ problems that can be associated with any calibration based on the
+ NSE (or MSE) criterion. While we propose and test an alternative
+ criterion that can help to reduce model calibration problems, the
+ primary purpose of this study is not to present an improved measure
+ of model performance. Instead, we seek to show that there are systematic
+ problems inherent with any optimization based on formulations related
+ to the MSE. The analysis and results have implications to the manner
+ in which we calibrate and evaluate environmental models; we discuss
+ these and suggest possible ways forward that may move us towards
+ an improved and diagnostically meaningful approach to model performance
+ evaluation and identification.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.003},
+ keywords = {KGE, Mean squared error, Nash{--}Sutcliffe efficiency, Model performance
+ evaluation, Calibration, Multiple criteria, Criteria decomposition},
+ tags = {Calibration, Goodness-of-Fit}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{guptasorooshianyapo1999,
+ author = {Gupta, H. and Sorooshian, S. and Yapo, P.},
+ title = {Status of Automatic Calibration for Hydrologic Models: Comparison
+ with Multilevel Expert Calibration},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrologic Engineering},
+ year = {1999},
+ volume = {4},
+ pages = {135--143},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {The usefulness of a hydrologic model depends on how well the model
+ is calibrated. Therefore, the calibration procedure must be conducted
+ carefully to maximize the reliability of the model. In general, manual
+ procedures for calibration can be extremely time-consuming and frustrating,
+ and this has been a major factor inhibiting the widespread use of
+ the more sophisticated and complex hydrologic models. A global optimization
+ algorithm entitled shuffled complex evolution recently was developed
+ that has proved to be consistent, effective, and efficient in locating
+ the globally optimal model parameters of a hydrologic model. In this
+ paper, the capability of the shuffled complex evolution automatic
+ procedure is compared with the interactive multilevel calibration
+ multistage semiautomated method developed for calibration of the
+ Sacramento soil moisture accounting streamflow forecasting model
+ of the U.S. National Weather Service. The results suggest that the
+ state of the art in automatic calibration now can be expected to
+ perform with a level of skill approaching that of a well-trained
+ hydrologist. This enables the hydrologist to take advantage of the
+ power of automated methods to obtain good parameter estimates that
+ are consistent with the historical data and to then use personal
+ judgment to refine these estimates and account for other factors
+ and knowledge not incorporated easily into the automated procedure.
+ The analysis also suggests that simple split-sample testing of model
+ performance is not capable of reliably indicating the existence of
+ model divergence and that more robust performance evaluation criteria
+ are needed.},
+ doi = {10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(1999)4:2(135)},
+ tags = {Calibration, Goodness-of-Fit}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{gupta+al1998,
+ author = {Gupta, H. and Sorooshian, S. and Yapo, P.},
+ title = {Toward Improved Calibration of Hydrologic Models: Multiple and Noncommensurable
+ Measures of Information},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1998},
+ volume = {34},
+ pages = {751--763},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {Several contributions to the hydrological literature have brought
+ into question the continued usefulness of the classical paradigm
+ for hydrologic model calibration. With the growing popularity of
+ sophisticated "physicallybased" watershed models (e.g., land-surface
+ hydrology and hydrochemical models) the complexity of the calibration
+ problem has been multiplied many fold. We disagree with the seemingly
+ widespread conviction that the model calibration problem will simply
+ disappear with the availability of more and better field measurements.
+ This paper suggests that the emergence of a new and more powerful
+ model calibration paradigm must include recognition of the inherent
+ multiobjective nature of the problem and must explicitly recognize
+ the role of model error. The results of our preliminary studies are
+ presented. Through an illustrative case study we show that the multiobjective
+ approach is not only practical and relatively simple to implement
+ but can also provide useful information about the limitations of
+ a model.},
+ bibkey = {RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS; MULTIOBJECTIVE PARAMETER-ESTIMATION; OBJECTIVE
+ DECISION-MAKING; AUTOMATIC CALIBRATION; GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION; CATCHMENT
+ MODELS; UNCERTAINTY; PREDICTION; IDENTIFICATION; EUTROPHICATION},
+ doi = {10.1029/97WR03495},
+ issn = {0043-1397},
+ tags = {Calibration, Goodness-of-Fit}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{guptasorooshian1985,
+ author = {Gupta, V. and and Sorooshian, S.},
+ title = {The relationship between data and the precision of parameter estimates
+ of hydrologic models},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {1985},
+ volume = {81},
+ pages = {55--77},
+ number = {1-2},
+ abstract = {This paper presents a discussion of the relationship between data
+ used for hydrologic model calibration and the precision of model
+ parameter estimates. The analysis is conducted within the framework
+ of the maximum likelihood approach to model selection. The concept
+ of {``}information{''} is discussed and the relationship between
+ information and parameter uncertainty is examined. This analysis
+ provides some interesting insights into the role that the quantity
+ and quality of the data used play in the identification procedure.
+ Based on this, a method for selecting data sets suitable for model
+ calibration is suggested. The ideas discussed are illustrated by
+ means of simulation studies using a conceptual-type rainfall-runoff
+ model},
+ doi = {10.1016/0022-1694(85)90167-2},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{gutjahr1994,
+ author = {Gutjahr, A. and Bullard, B. and Hatch, S. and Hughson, L.},
+ title = {Joint conditional simulations and the spectral approach for flow
+ modeling},
+ journal = {Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics},
+ year = {1994},
+ volume = {8},
+ pages = {79--108},
+ number = {1},
+ month = {March},
+ abstract = {The use of data to condition single random fields has a well-established
+ history. However, the joint use of data from several cross-correlated
+ random fields is not as well developed. For example, the use of both
+ transmissivity and head data in a steady state 2-d stochastic flow
+ problem is essentially an inverse problem that is very important
+ for both flow and transport predictions. This problem is addressed
+ here by using a combination of numerical simulation and analytical
+ methods and its application illustrated. The type of information
+ conveyed by the different data categories is explored. The results
+ presented are especially interesting in that head and transmissivity
+ each give different information: Head values would appear to constrain
+ the geometry of the paths while transmissivity data yields information
+ about travel times. The linearized model is expanded to an iterative
+ procedure and the ldquotruerdquo conditional distribution at several
+ locations is compared with the iterative solution.
+
+ The problem mentioned above is one with a special transfer function
+ specified by the flow equation. In the second part of the paper a
+ Fast Fourier Transform method for generation and conditioning of
+ two or more random fields is introduced. This procedure is simple
+ to implement, fast and very flexible.},
+ doi = {10.1007/BF01581391},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.10.21}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{gutjahr1989,
+ author = {Gutjahr, A. and Wilson, J.},
+ title = {Co--kriging for stochastic flow models},
+ journal = {Transport in Porous Media},
+ year = {1989},
+ volume = {4},
+ pages = {585--598},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {Co-kriging equations for log-transmissivity and heads are derived
+ for a two-dimensional stochastic model. The behavior of the weights
+ as a function of the unknown value of mean hydraulic gradient J are
+ discussed and the procedure is illustrated by studying the lsquoscreeningrsquo
+ effects of adjacent measurements and added head measurements. In
+ addition, the bias of the estimator for head values is studied when
+ J is also estimated.},
+ doi = {10.1007/BF00223629},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.10.21}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{HAECON2004,
+ author = {HAECON and {Witteveen+Bos}},
+ title = {Ontwikkelen van regionale modellen ten behoeve van het {V}laams {G}rondwater
+ {M}odel ({VGM}) in {GMS/MODFLOW}: {P}erceel Nr. 3 {B}rulandkrijtmodel
+ ({D}evelopment of regional models for the {F}lemish {G}roundwater
+ {M}odel ({VGM}) in {GMS/MODFLOW}},
+ institution = {AMINAL, afdeling WATER},
+ year = {2004},
+ address = {Brussels, Belgium},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ pages = {--159 pp},
+ publisher = {AMINAL, afdeling WATER},
+ refid = {HAECON2004},
+ timestamp = {2008.11.04}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{haerter+al2010,
+ author = {Haerter, J. and Hagemann, S. and Moseley, C. and Piani, C.},
+ title = {Climate model bias correction and the role of timescales},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {15},
+ pages = {1065--1079},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {It is well known that output from climate models cannot be used to
+ force hydrological simulations without some form of preprocessing
+ to remove the existing biases. In principle, statistical bias correction
+ methodologies act on model output so the statistical properties of
+ the corrected data match those of the observations. However the improvements
+ to the statistical properties of the data are limited to the specific
+ time scale of the fluctuations that are considered. For example,
+ a statistical bias correction methodology for mean daily values might
+ be detrimental to monthly statistics. Also, in applying bias corrections
+ derived from present day to scenario simulations, an assumption is
+ made of persistence of the bias over the largest timescales. We examine
+ the effects of mixing fluctuations on different time scales and suggest
+ an improved statistical methodology, referred to here as a cascade
+ bias correction method, that eliminates, or greatly reduces, the
+ negative effects.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-15-1065-2011},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.12.16}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hagemann+al2009,
+ author = {Hagemann, S. and G\"ottel, H. and Jacob, D. and Lorenz, P. and Roeckner,
+ E.},
+ title = {Improved regional scale processes reflected in projected hydrological
+ changes over large {E}uropean catchments},
+ journal = {Climate Dynamics},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {32},
+ pages = {767--781},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {For the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
+ Climate Change (IPCC), the recent version of the coupled atmosphere/ocean
+ general circulation model (GCM) of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
+ has been used to conduct an ensemble of transient climate simulations
+ These simulations comprise three control simulations for the past
+ century covering the period 1860–2000, and nine simulations for the
+ future climate (2001–2100) using greenhouse gas (GHG) and aerosol
+ concentrations according to the three IPCC scenarios B1, A1B and
+ A2. For each scenario three simulations were performed. The global
+ simulations were dynamically downscaled over Europe using the regional
+ climate model (RCM) REMO at 0.44° horizontal resolution (about 50
+ km), whereas the physics packages of the GCM and RCM largely agree.
+ The regional simulations comprise the three control simulations (1950–2000),
+ the three A1B simulations and one simulation for B1 as well as for
+ A2 (2001–2100). In our study we concentrate on the climate change
+ signals in the hydrological cycle and the 2 m temperature by comparing
+ the mean projected climate at the end of the twenty-first century
+ (2071–2100) to a control period representing current climate (1961–1990).
+ The robustness of the climate change signal projected by the GCM
+ and RCM is analysed focussing on the large European catchments of
+ Baltic Sea (land only), Danube and Rhine. In this respect, a robust
+ climate change signal designates a projected change that sticks out
+ of the noise of natural climate variability. Catchments and seasons
+ are identified where the climate change signal in the components
+ of the hydrological cycle is robust, and where this signal has a
+ larger uncertainty. Notable differences in the robustness of the
+ climate change signals between the GCM and RCM simulations are related
+ to a stronger warming projected by the GCM in the winter over the
+ Baltic Sea catchment and in the summer over the Danube and Rhine
+ catchments. Our results indicate that the main explanation for these
+ differences is that the finer resolution of the RCM leads to a better
+ representation of local scale processes at the surface that feed
+ back to the atmosphere, i.e. an improved representation of the land
+ sea contrast and related moisture transport processes over the Baltic
+ Sea catchment, and an improved representation of soil moisture feedbacks
+ to the atmosphere over the Danube and Rhine catchments.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00382-008-0403-9},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.03.08}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hagemann+al2004,
+ author = {Hagemann, S. and Machenhauer, B. and Jones, R. and Christensen, O.
+ and D\'equ\'e, M. and Jacob, D. and Vidale, P.},
+ title = {Evaluation of water and energy budgets in regional climate models
+ applied over {E}urope},
+ journal = {Climate Dynamics},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {23},
+ pages = {547--567},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {This study presents a model intercomparison of four regional climate
+ models (RCMs) and one variable resolution atmospheric general circulation
+ model (AGCM) applied over Europe with special focus on the hydrological
+ cycle and the surface energy budget. The models simulated the 15
+ years from 1979 to 1993 by using quasi-observed boundary conditions
+ derived from ECMWF re-analyses (ERA). The model intercomparison focuses
+ on two large atchments representing two different climate conditions
+ covering two areas of major research interest within Europe. The
+ first is the Danube catchment which represents a continental climate
+ dominated by advection from the surrounding land areas. It is used
+ to analyse the common model error of a too dry and too warm simulation
+ of the summertime climate of southeastern Europe. This summer warming
+ and drying problem is seen in many RCMs, and to a less extent in
+ GCMs. The second area is the Baltic Sea catchment which represents
+ maritime climate dominated by advection from the ocean and from the
+ Baltic Sea. This catchment is a research area of many studies within
+ Europe and also covered by the BALTEX program. The observed data
+ used are monthly mean surface air temperature, precipitation and
+ river discharge. For all models, these are used to estimate mean
+ monthly biases of all components of the hydrological cycle over land.
+ In addition, the mean monthly deviations of the surface energy fluxes
+ from ERA data are computed. Atmospheric moisture fluxes from ERA
+ are compared with those of one model to provide an independent estimate
+ of the convergence bias derived from the observed data. These help
+ to add weight to some of the inferred estimates and explain some
+ of the discrepancies between them. An evaluation of these biases
+ and deviations suggests possible sources of error in each of the
+ models. For the Danube catchment, systematic errors in the dynamics
+ cause the prominent summer drying problem for three of the RCMs,
+ while for the fourth RCM this is related to deficiencies in the land
+ surface parametrization. The AGCM does not show this drying problem.
+ For the Baltic Sea catchment, all models similarily overestimate
+ the precipitation throughout the year except during the summer. This
+ model deficit is probably caused by the internal model parametrizations,
+ such as the large-scale condensation and the convection schemes},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00382-004-0444-7},
+ tags = {RCMs}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{haijan2007,
+ author = {Hajian, A.},
+ title = {Efficient cosmological parameter estimation with {H}amiltonian {M}onte
+ {C}arlo},
+ journal = {Physical Review D - particles, fields, gravity, and cosmology},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {75},
+ pages = {083525},
+ abstract = {Traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods suffer from low acceptance
+ rate, slow mixing, and low efficiency in high dimensions. Hamiltonian
+ Monte Carlo resolves this issue by avoiding the random walk. Hamiltonian
+ Monte Carlo (HMC) is a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique
+ built upon the basic principle of Hamiltonian mechanics. Hamiltonian
+ dynamics allows the chain to move along trajectories of constant
+ energy, taking large jumps in the parameter space with relatively
+ inexpensive computations. This new technique improves the acceptance
+ rate by a factor of 4 while reducing the correlations and boosts
+ up the efficiency by almost a factor of D in a D-dimensional parameter
+ space. Therefore shorter chains will be needed for a reliable parameter
+ estimation comparing to a traditional MCMC chain yielding the same
+ performance. Besides that, the HMC is well suited for sampling from
+ non-Gaussian and curved distributions which are very hard to sample
+ from using the traditional MCMC methods. The method is very simple
+ to code and can be easily plugged into standard parameter estimation
+ codes such as CosmoMC. In this paper we demonstrate how the HMC can
+ be efficiently used in cosmological parameter estimation. Also we
+ discuss possible ways of getting good estimates of the derivatives
+ of (the log of) posterior which is needed for HMC.},
+ doi = {10.1103/PhysRevD.75.083525},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.07.16}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{halenka+al2009,
+ author = {Halenka, T. and Miksovsky, J. and Belda, M. and Huszar, P.},
+ title = {High resolution regional climate change modelling in {CECILIA} {P}roject--climate
+ change signal in central and {E}astern {E}urope},
+ journal = {IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {6},
+ pages = {022006},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {There is significant problem for decision making process arising from
+ the weak link between climate change information based on global
+ climate models and local impact studies necessarily based on regional
+ climate change signal. Global Circulation Models (GCMs) can reproduce
+ reasonably well climate features on large scales (global and continental),
+ but their accuracy decreases when proceeding from continental to
+ regional and local scales because of the lack of resolution. This
+ is especially true for surface fields, such as precipitation, surface
+ air temperature and their extremes, which are critically affected
+ by topography and land use. However, in many applications, particularly
+ related to the assessment of climate-change impacts, the information
+ on surface climate change at regional to local scale is fundamental.
+ To bridge the gap between the climate information provided by GCMs
+ and that needed in impact studies, several approaches have been developed.
+ The most popular approaches are (i) statistical downscaling, i.e.,
+ identification of statistical relationships between large-scale fields
+ and local surface climate elements, and (ii) dynamical downscaling,
+ i.e., nesting of a fine scale limited area model (or Regional Climate
+ Model, RCM) within the GCM. The latter approach is more correct from
+ a physical point of view, but is much more demanding on computer
+ resources. In the region of central and eastern Europe the need for
+ high resolution studies is particularly important. This region is
+ characterized by the northern flanks of the Alps, the long arc of
+ the Carpathians, and smaller mountain chains and highlands in the
+ Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria that significantly
+ affect the local climate conditions. A resolution sufficient to capture
+ the effects of these topographical and associated land-use features
+ is necessary. It will be shown that neither resolutions 50 and 25
+ km used in FP6 Integrated Project ENSEMBLES is not so high to capture
+ necessary details in this region. That is why 10 km resolution has
+ been introduced in EC FP6 project CECILIA. The main objectives of
+ EC Project (STREP) CECILIA dealing with climate change impacts and
+ vulnerability assessment in targeted areas of Central and Eastern
+ Europe will be described. Emphasis is given to applications of regional
+ climate modelling studies at a resolution of 10 km for local impact
+ studies in key sectors of the region. The project contains studies
+ on hydrology, water quality, and water management (focusing at medium-sized
+ river catchments and the Black Sea coast), air quality issues in
+ urban areas (Black Triangle – a polluted region around the common
+ borders of the Czech Republic, Poland and Germany), agriculture (crop
+ yield, pests and diseases, carbon cycle), and forestry (management,
+ carbon cycle). The high spatial and temporal resolution of dense
+ national observational networks at high temporal resolution and of
+ the CECILIA regional model experiments will uniquely feed into investigations
+ of climate change consequences for weather extremes in the regions
+ under study. Comparison with the results based on statistical downscaling
+ techniques will also be provided. Statistical downscaling methods
+ for verification of the regional model results will be developed
+ and applied, and assessments of their use in localization of model
+ output for impact studies will be performed. The main goal of regional
+ climate modelling activities in CECILIA project is to produce simulations
+ on targeted domains for a past period (1961-1990) driven by ERA40
+ reanalysis used for validation of the models as well as for a reference
+ period (1961-1990) and scenario time slices (2021-2050 and 2071-2100)
+ based on ENSEMBLES 6FP EC IP A1B GCM simulations. Two models are
+ used as source of driving fields over six target areas, ALADIN-Climate
+ family using stretched climate change transient run by ARPEGE/Climat
+ for ENSEMBLES project, RegCM family using RegCM transient ENSEMBLES
+ run for whole Europe in 25km resolution driven by transient run of
+ ECHAM5. Results of model validation and climate change signal based
+ on this simulations will be presented with emphasis to the regional
+ details of targeted areas as well as examples of impact studies using
+ these high resolution scenarios runs.},
+ doi = {10.1088/1755-1307/6/2/022006},
+ tags = {RCMs}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hanasaki2008a,
+ author = {Hanasaki, N. and Kanae, S. and Oki, T. and Masuda, K. and Motoya,
+ K. and Shirakawa, N. and Shen, Y. and Tanaka, K.},
+ title = {An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources
+ -- {P}art 1: {M}odel description and input meteorological forcing},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {12},
+ pages = {1007--1025},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {To assess global water availability and use at a subannual timescale,
+ an integrated global water resources model was developed consisting
+ of six modules: land surface hydrology, river routing, crop growth,
+ reservoir operation, environmental flow requirement estimation, and
+ anthropogenic water withdrawal. The model simulates both natural
+ and anthropogenic water flow globally (excluding Antarctica) on a
+ daily basis at a spatial resolution of 1°×1° (longitude and latitude).
+ This first part of the two-feature report describes the six modules
+ and the input meteorological forcing. The input meteorological forcing
+ was provided by the second Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP2), an
+ international land surface modeling project. Several reported shortcomings
+ of the forcing component were improved. The land surface hydrology
+ module was developed based on a bucket type model that simulates
+ energy and water balance on land surfaces. The crop growth module
+ is a relatively simple model based on concepts of heat unit theory,
+ potential biomass, and a harvest index. In the reservoir operation
+ module, 452 major reservoirs with >1 km3 each of storage capacity
+ store and release water according to their own rules of operation.
+ Operating rules were determined for each reservoir by an algorithm
+ that used currently available global data such as reservoir storage
+ capacity, intended purposes, simulated inflow, and water demand in
+ the lower reaches. The environmental flow requirement module was
+ newly developed based on case studies from around the world. Simulated
+ runoff was compared and validated with observation-based global runoff
+ data sets and observed streamflow records at 32 major river gauging
+ stations around the world. Mean annual runoff agreed well with earlier
+ studies at global and continental scales, and in individual basins,
+ the mean bias was less than ±20% in 14 of the 32 river basins and
+ less than ±50% in 24 basins. The error in the peak was less than
+ ±1 mo in 19 of the 27 basins and less than ±2 mo in 25 basins. The
+ performance was similar to the best available precedent studies with
+ closure of energy and water. The input meteorological forcing component
+ and the integrated model provide a framework with which to assess
+ global water resources, with the potential application to investigate
+ the subannual variability in water resources.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-12-1007-2008},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.21}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hanasaki2008b,
+ author = {Hanasaki, N. and Kanae, S. and Oki, T. and Masuda, K. and Motoya,
+ K. and Shirakawa, N. and Shen, Y. and Tanaka, K.},
+ title = {An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources
+ -- {P}art 2: {A}pplications and assessments},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {12},
+ pages = {1027--1037},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {To assess global water resources from the perspective of subannual
+ variation in water availability and water use, an integrated water
+ resources model was developed. In a companion report, we presented
+ the global meteorological forcing input used to drive the model and
+ six modules, namely, the land surface hydrology module, the river
+ routing module, the crop growth module, the reservoir operation module,
+ the environmental flow requirement module, and the anthropogenic
+ withdrawal module. Here, we present the results of the model application
+ and global water resources assessments. First, the timing and volume
+ of simulated agriculture water use were examined because agricultural
+ use composes approximately 85% of total consumptive water withdrawal
+ in the world. The estimated crop calendar showed good agreement with
+ earlier reports for wheat, maize, and rice in major countries of
+ production. In major countries, the error in the planting date was
+ ±1 mo, but there were some exceptional cases. The estimated irrigation
+ water withdrawal also showed fair agreement with country statistics,
+ but tended to be underestimated in countries in the Asian monsoon
+ region. The results indicate the validity of the model and the input
+ meteorological forcing because site-specific parameter tuning was
+ not used in the series of simulations. Finally, global water resources
+ were assessed on a subannual basis using a newly devised index. This
+ index located water-stressed regions that were undetected in earlier
+ studies. These regions, which are indicated by a gap in the subannual
+ distribution of water availability and water use, include the Sahel,
+ the Asian monsoon region, and southern Africa. The simulation results
+ show that the reservoir operations of major reservoirs (>1 km3) and
+ the allocation of environmental flow requirements can alter the population
+ under high water stress by approximately ?11% to +5% globally. The
+ integrated model is applicable to assessments of various global environmental
+ projections such as climate change.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-12-1027-2008},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.21}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hanel2010,
+ author = {Hanel, M. and Buishand, T.},
+ title = {Analysis of precipitation extremes in an ensemble of transient regional
+ climate model simulations for the {R}hine basin},
+ journal = {Climate Dynamics},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {36},
+ pages = {1135--1153},
+ number = {5--6},
+ abstract = {A non-stationary index-flood model was used to analyse the 1-day summer
+ and 5-day winter precipitation maxima in the Rhine basin in an ensemble
+ of 15 transient regional climate model (RCM) simulations. It is assumed
+ that the seasonal precipitation maxima follow a generalized extreme
+ value (GEV) distribution with time varying parameters. The index-flood
+ assumption implies that the dispersion coefficient (the ratio of
+ the scale and the location parameters) and the shape parameter are
+ constant over predefined regions, while the location parameter varies
+ within these regions. A comparison with the estimates from gridded
+ observations shows that these GEV parameters are too large in the
+ summer season, while there is a large overestimation of the location
+ parameter and underestimation of the dispersion coefficient in winter.
+ However, a large part of the biases in the summer season might be
+ due to the low number of stations used for gridding the observations.
+ Though there is considerable variation in the changes of the extreme
+ value distributions among the RCM simulations, common tendencies
+ can be identified. In summer, large quantiles increase as a consequence
+ of an increase of the dispersion coefficient, while there is almost
+ no change of low quantiles. In winter, low quantiles increase because
+ of an increase of the location parameter. This effect is, however,
+ counterbalanced by a decrease of the shape parameter in most RCM
+ simulations, resulting in only a slight increase of large quantiles.
+ Departures from the assumed index-flood model were observed in the
+ Alpine region in the south of the basin. This is due to the strong
+ spatial heterogeneity in the dispersion coefficient in a number of
+ RCM simulations and a significant altitude dependence of the trend
+ in the location parameter in winter in five RCM simulations.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00382-010-0822-2},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.21}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hanna1998,
+ author = {Hanna, S. and Yeh, T.},
+ title = {Estimation of co--conditional moments of transmissivity, hydraulic
+ head and velocity fields},
+ journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
+ year = {1998},
+ volume = {22},
+ pages = {87--95},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {An iterative co-conditional Monte Carlo simulation (IMCS) approach
+ is developed. This approach derives co-conditional means and variances
+ of transmissivity (T), head (?), and Darcy's velocity (q), based
+ on sparse measurements of T and ? in heterogeneous, confined aquifers
+ under steady-state conditions. It employs the classical co-conditional
+ Monte Carlo simulation technique (MCS) and a successive linear estimator
+ that takes advantage of our prior knowledge of the covariances of
+ T and ? and their cross-covariance. In each co-conditional simulation,
+ a linear estimate of T is improved by solving the governing steady-state
+ flow equation, and by updating residual covariance functions iteratively.
+ These residual covariance functions consist of the covariance of
+ T and ? and the cross-covariance function between T and ?. As a result,
+ the non-linear relationship between T and ? is incorporated in the
+ co-conditional realizations of T and ?. Once the T and ? fields are
+ generated, a corresponding velocity field is also calculated. The
+ average of the co-conditioned realizations of T, ?, and q yields
+ the co-conditional mean fields. In turn, the co-conditional variances
+ of T, ?, and q, which measure the reduction in uncertainty due to
+ measurements of T and ?, are derived. Results of our numerical experiments
+ show that the co-conditional means from IMCS for T and ? fields have
+ smaller mean square errors (MSE) than those from a non-iterative
+ Monte Carlo simulation (NIMCS). Finally, the co-conditional mean
+ fields from IMCS are compared with the co-conditional effective fields
+ from a direct approach developed by Yeh et al. [Water Resources Research,
+ 32(1), 85–92, 1996].},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0309-1708(97)00033-X},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.09.11}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hannafordmarsh2006,
+ author = {Hannaford, Jamie and Marsh, Terry},
+ title = {An assessment of trends in UK runoff and low flows using a network
+ of undisturbed catchments},
+ journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {26},
+ pages = {1237--1253},
+ number = {9},
+ abstract = {In many parts of the world attempts to discern climatic-driven changes
+ in river flow patterns are hindered by the combined impact of other,
+ more direct anthropogenic disturbances such as abstraction and impoundments.
+ This study capitalises on a newly defined ‘benchmark’ network of
+ natural catchments in the UK to discern natural variability in flow
+ regimes. Trend tests were applied to time series of runoff and indicators
+ of low-flow magnitude and duration for two study periods to assess
+ the sensitivity of trends to the frame of reference over which tests
+ were conducted. Notwithstanding the volatility of the recent past,
+ the results demonstrate a general stability in runoff and low flows
+ since the early 1960s. The strongest signal to emerge from the study
+ is a positive runoff trend for catchments in Scotland, which was
+ resilient to the effect of the study periods. There was also some
+ indication of increasing runoff in maritime western areas of England
+ and Wales. These increases in maritime areas are likely to reflect
+ the dominance of westerly airflows in the recent past, associated
+ with an increase in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index. For
+ low flows, there were no compelling trends—significant positive trends
+ over the 1973–2002 period are influenced by a sequence of notably
+ dry years at the start of the period and were not observed over a
+ 40-year time-frame. There are some indications of a tendency towards
+ decreasing low flows in some eastern catchments, but this is supported
+ by few significant results. The results of this study provide a baseline
+ against which to assess longer-term change from historical flow time
+ series and to monitor future change in the benchmark network. Copyright
+ © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society},
+ doi = {10.1002/joc.1303},
+ issn = {1097-0088},
+ keywords = {trend(s), river flows, low flows, runoff, climate change, natural
+ catchments, UK},
+ publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons, Ltd.}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hao+al2004,
+ author = {Hao, {F-H} and Zhang, {X-S} and Yang, {Z-F}},
+ title = {A distributed non-point source pollution model: calibration and validation
+ in the Yellow River Basin},
+ journal = {Journal of Environmental Sciences},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {16},
+ pages = {646--50},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {The applicability of a non-point source pollution model{--}SWAT(soil
+ and water assessment tools) in a large river basin with high sediment
+ runoff modulus(770 t/km2 in the Yellow River) was examined. The basic
+ database, which includes DEM, soil and landuse map, weather data,
+ and land management data, was established for the study area using
+ GIS. A two-stage },
+ keywords = {SWAT},
+ tags = {Calibration, SWAT},
+ url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15495973}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{mf2005,
+ author = {Harbaugh, A.},
+ title = {M{ODFLOW}--2005, the {U}.{S}. {G}eological {S}urvey modular ground-water
+ model--the {G}round--{W}ater {F}low {P}rocess},
+ institution = {United States Geological Survey},
+ year = {2005},
+ type = {Techniques and Methods 6--A16},
+ address = {Reston, Virginia, USA},
+ booktitle = {Techniques and Methods 6-A16},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ pages = {--253 pp},
+ publisher = {U.S. Geological Survey},
+ refid = {HARBAUGH2005},
+ timestamp = {2008.11.04}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{zonebudget,
+ author = {Harbaugh, A.},
+ title = {A computer program for calculating subregional water budgets using
+ results from the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional
+ ground-water flow model},
+ institution = {United States Geological Survey},
+ year = {1990},
+ type = {Open File Report 90-392},
+ address = {Reston, Virginia, USA},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.10.14}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{mf2k,
+ author = {Harbaugh, A. and Banta, E. and Hill, M. and McDonald, M.},
+ title = {M{ODFLOW}--2000 {U}.{S}. {G}eological {S}urvey modular ground--water
+ model--user guide to modularization concepts and the ground--water
+ flow process},
+ institution = {United States Geological Survey},
+ year = {2000},
+ type = {Open File Report, 00-92},
+ address = {Reston, Virginia, USA},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{harmelsmith2007,
+ author = {Harmel, R. and Smith, P.},
+ title = {Consideration of measurement uncertainty in the evaluation of goodness-of-fit
+ in hydrologic and water quality modeling},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {337},
+ pages = {326--336},
+ abstract = {As hydrologic and water quality (H/WQ) models are increasingly used
+ to guide water resource policy, management, and regulation, it is
+ no longer appropriate to disregard uncertainty in model calibration,
+ validation, and evaluation. In the present research, the method of
+ calculating the error term in pairwise comparisons of measured and
+ predicted values was modified to consider measurement uncertainty
+ with the goat of facilitating enhanced evaluation of H/WQ models.
+ The basis of this method was the theory that H/WQ models should not
+ be evaluated against the values of measured data, which are uncertain,
+ but against the inherent measurement uncertainty. Specifically, the
+ deviation calculations of several goodness-of-fit indicators were
+ modified based on the uncertainty boundaries (Modification 1) or
+ the probability distribution of measured data (Modification 2). The
+ choice between these two modifications is based on absence or presence
+ of distributional information on measurement uncertainty. Modification
+ 1, which is appropriate in the absence of distributional information,
+ minimizes the calculated deviations and thus produced substantial
+ improvements in goodness-of-fit indicators for each example data
+ set. Modification 2, which provides a more realistic uncertainty
+ estimate but requires distributional information on uncertainty,
+ resulted in smaller improvements. Modification 2 produced small goodness-of-fit
+ improvement for measured data with little uncertainty but produced
+ modest improvement when data with substantial uncertainty were compared
+ with both poor and good model predictions. This limited improvement
+ is important because poor model good ness-of-fit, especially due
+ to model structure deficiencies, should not appear satisfactory simply
+ by including measurement uncertainty. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All
+ rights reserved.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.01.043},
+ keywords = {model calibration, model validation, statistics, Nash-Sutcliffe, index
+ of agreement, PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY, AGRICULTURAL WATERSHEDS, DRAINMOD
+ PREDICTIONS, PHOSPHORUS, RIVER, EQUIFINALITY, NITROGEN, STORAGE},
+ tags = {SWAT, Calibration, Goodness-of-Fit}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{harrar2003,
+ author = {Harrar, W. and Sonnenberg, T. and Henriksen, H.},
+ title = {Capture zone, travel time, and solute transport predictions using
+ inverse modelling and different geological models},
+ journal = {Hydrogeology Journal},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {11},
+ pages = {536--548},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {Six regional-scale flow models are compared to gain insight into how
+ different representations of hydraulic-conductivity distributions
+ affect model calibration and predictions. Deterministic geological
+ models were used to define hydraulic-conductivity distributions in
+ two steady-state flow models that were calibrated to heads and baseflow
+ estimates using inverse techniques. Optimized hydraulic-conductivity
+ estimates from the two models were used to calculate layer and model
+ mean hydraulic-conductivity values. Despite differences in the two
+ geological models, inverse calibration produced mean hydraulic-conductivity
+ values for the entire model domain that are quite similar. The layer
+ and model mean hydraulic-conductivity values were used to generate
+ four additional flow models and forward runs were performed. All
+ of the models adequately simulate the observed heads and total baseflow.
+ The six flow models were used to predict the steady-state impact
+ of a proposed well field, and the flow solutions were used in simulating
+ particle tracking and solute transport. Results of the predictive
+ simulations show that, for this example, simple models of heterogeneity
+ produce capture zones similar to more complex models, but with very
+ different travel times and breakthroughs. Inverse modeling combined
+ with different geological models can provide a measure of capture
+ zone and breakthrough reliability.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10040-003-0276-2},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hashino2007,
+ author = {Hashino, T. and Bradley, A. and Schwartz, S.},
+ title = {Evaluationof bias--correection methods for ensemble streamflow volume
+ forecasts},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {11},
+ pages = {939--950},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {Ensemble prediction systems are used operationally to make probabilistic
+ streamflow forecasts for seasonal time scales. However, hydrological
+ models used for ensemble streamflow prediction often have simulation
+ biases that degrade forecast quality and limit the operational usefulness
+ of the forecasts. This study evaluates three bias-correction methods
+ for ensemble streamflow volume forecasts. All three adjust the ensemble
+ traces using a transformation derived with simulated and observed
+ flows from a historical simulation. The quality of probabilistic
+ forecasts issued when using the three bias-correction methods is
+ evaluated using a distributions-oriented verification approach. Comparisons
+ are made of retrospective forecasts of monthly flow volumes for a
+ north-central United States basin (Des Moines River, Iowa), issued
+ sequentially for each month over a 48-year record. The results show
+ that all three bias-correction methods significantly improve forecast
+ quality by eliminating unconditional biases and enhancing the potential
+ skill. Still, subtle differences in the attributes of the bias-corrected
+ forecasts have important implications for their use in operational
+ decision-making. Diagnostic verification distinguishes these attributes
+ in a context meaningful for decision-making, providing criteria to
+ choose among bias-correction methods with comparable skill.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-11-939-2007},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.25}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hassan2004a,
+ author = {Hassan, A.},
+ title = {A methodology for validating numerical ground water models},
+ journal = {Ground Water},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {42},
+ pages = {347--362},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {Ground water validation is one of the most challenging issues facing
+ modelers and hydrogeologists. Increased complexity in ground water
+ models has created a gap between model predictions and the ability
+ to validate or build confidence in predictions. Specific procedures
+ and tests that can be easily adapted and applied to determine the
+ validity of site-specific ground water models do not exist. This
+ is true for both deterministic and stochastic models, with stochastic
+ models posing the more difficult validation problem. The objective
+ of this paper is to propose a general validation approach that addresses
+ important issues recognized in previous validation studies, conferences,
+ and symposia. The proposed method links the processes for building,
+ calibrating, evaluating, and validating models in an iterative loop.
+ The approach focuses on using collected validation data to reduce
+ uncertainty in the model and narrow the range of possible outcomes.
+ This method is designed for stochastic numerical models utilizing
+ Monte Carlo simulation approaches, but it can be easily adapted for
+ deterministic models. The proposed methodology relies on the premise
+ that absolute validity is not theoretically possible, nor is it a
+ regulatory requirement. Rather, the proposed methodology highlights
+ the importance of testing various aspects of the model and using
+ diverse statistical tools for rigorous checking and confidence building
+ in the model and its predictions. It is this confidence that will
+ encourage regulators and the public to accept decisions based on
+ the model predictions. This validation approach will be applied to
+ a model, described in this paper, dealing with an underground nuclear
+ test site in rural Nevada.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1745-6584.2004.tb02683.x},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hassan2004b,
+ author = {Hassan, A.},
+ title = {Validation of numerical ground water models used to guide decision
+ making},
+ journal = {Ground Water},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {42},
+ pages = {277--290},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {Many sites of ground water contamination rely heavily on complex numerical
+ models of flow and transport to develop closure plans. This complexity
+ has created a need for tools and approaches that can build confidence
+ in model predictions and provide evidence that these predictions
+ are sufficient for decision making. Confidence building is a long-term,
+ iterative process and the author believes that this process should
+ be termed model validation. Model validation is a process, not an
+ end result. That is, the process of model validation cannot ensure
+ acceptable prediction or quality of the model. Rather, it provides
+ an important safeguard against faulty models or inadequately developed
+ and tested models. If model results become the basis for decision
+ making, then the validation process provides evidence that the model
+ is valid for making decisions (not necessarily a true representation
+ of reality). Validation, verification, and confirmation are concepts
+ associated with ground water numerical models that not only do not
+ represent established and generally accepted practices, but there
+ is not even widespread agreement on the meaning of the terms as applied
+ to models. This paper presents a review of model validation studies
+ that pertain to ground water flow and transport modeling. Definitions,
+ literature debates, previously proposed validation strategies, and
+ conferences and symposia that focused on subsurface model validation
+ are reviewed and discussed. The review is general and focuses on
+ site-specific, predictive ground water models used for making decisions
+ regarding remediation activities and site closure. The aim is to
+ provide a reasonable starting point for hydrogeologists facing model
+ validation for ground water systems, thus saving a significant amount
+ of time, effort, and cost. This review is also aimed at reviving
+ the issue of model validation in the hydrogeologic community and
+ stimulating the thinking of researchers and practitioners to develop
+ practical and efficient tools for evaluating and refining ground
+ water predictive models.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1745-6584.2004.tb02674.x},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hassan2009,
+ author = {Hassan, A. and Bekhit, H. and Chapman, J.},
+ title = {Using {M}arkov {C}hain {M}onte {C}arlo to quantify parameter uncertainty
+ and its effect on predcitions of a groundwater flow model},
+ journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {24},
+ pages = {749--763},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {A statistical Bayesian framework is used to solve the inverse problem
+ and develop the posterior distributions of parameters for a density-driven
+ groundwater flow model. This Bayesian approach is implemented using
+ a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling method. Three sets of
+ data pertaining to the location of the freshwater–seawater transition
+ zone exist for the site, including chemistry data, hydraulic head
+ data and newly collected magnetotelluric (MT) data. A sequential
+ conditioning approach is implemented where the chemistry data and
+ MT-converted salinity are combined as a single data set and are used
+ to first condition the parameter distributions. The head data are
+ subsequently used as a second conditioning data set where the posterior
+ distribution developed by the first conditioning is used as a prior
+ for this second conditioning. Results of this analysis indicate that
+ conditioning on the available data sets yields dramatic reduction
+ of uncertainty compared to unconditioned simulations, especially
+ for the recharge–conductivity ratio. This ratio controls the location
+ of the transition zone, and the conditioning results in a smaller
+ range of variability compared to the distribution used in previous
+ modelling of the site. Using the conditioned distributions to solve
+ the density-driven flow problem in a stochastic framework (i.e.,
+ model parameters are randomly sampled from the posterior distributions)
+ results in a range of output flow fields that is much narrower than
+ the previous model. The ensemble mean of these solutions and the
+ uncertainty bounds expressed by the mean ± one standard deviation
+ lie within the uncertainty bounds of the original model. For the
+ case study shown here, the effect of conditioning data is dominant
+ over the effect of prior information.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.11.002},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hassan2008,
+ author = {Hassan, A. and Bekhit, H. and Chapman, J.},
+ title = {Uncertainty assessment of a stochastic groundwater flow model using
+ {GLUE} analysis},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {362},
+ pages = {89--109},
+ number = {1--2},
+ abstract = {The use of the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE)
+ methodology in analyzing the results of stochastic groundwater models
+ is evaluated. The ability of the GLUE methodology to mitigate the
+ effect of the selection of the input parameter prior distributions
+ on the modeling results is investigated. This is important when no
+ prior information is available or when significantly different priors
+ come from different sources or experts. The different approaches
+ that can be used to implement the GLUE methodology in analyzing the
+ stochastic results of such models and quantifying the uncertainty
+ in model prediction are evaluated. Recent debates about the GLUE
+ methodology and the problem of using “less formal likelihood†functions
+ are discussed in terms of the applicability of such issues to groundwater
+ studies in general and a given field site specifically. These issues
+ are investigated using a density-driven groundwater flow model of
+ a nuclear testing site (Milrow) on Amchitka Island, Alaska. Results
+ of the analysis highlight the subjectivity of the choice of the shape
+ factor associated with the GLUE likelihood measures. However, the
+ arbitrary choice of this factor can be tied to the level of confidence
+ one can place on the available observations. While traditional GLUE
+ applications focus on displaying prediction quantiles, GLUE can be
+ used to develop uncertainty bounds that are qualitatively similar
+ to predictive uncertainty. Interestingly, for the case study shown
+ here the traditional GLUE quantiles and the uncertainty bounds are
+ almost identical. Results also show that the GLUE-based ensemble
+ averaging yields results that are controlled by the data more than
+ by the prior distributions. The GLUE quantiles or GLUE-developed
+ uncertainty bounds provide conditional predictions that are free
+ from the artificial smoothing associated with ensemble averaging.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.08.017},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.12.02}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hastings1970,
+ author = {Hastings, W.},
+ title = {Monte {C}arlo sampling methods using {M}arkov chains and their applications},
+ journal = {Biometrika},
+ year = {1970},
+ volume = {57},
+ pages = {97--109},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {A generalization of the sampling method introduced by Metropolis et
+ al. (1953) is presented along with an exposition of the relevant
+ theory, techniques of application and methods and difficulties of
+ assessing the error in Monte Carlo estimates. Examples of the methods,
+ including the generation of random orthogonal matrices and potential
+ applications of the methods to numerical problems arising in statistics,
+ are discussed.},
+ doi = {10.1093/biomet/57.1.97},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.07.16}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hay+al2002,
+ author = {Hay, L. and Clark, M. and Wilby, R. and Gutowski, W. and Leavesley,
+ G. and Pan, Z. and Arritt, R. and Takle, E.},
+ title = {Use of regional climate model output for hydrologic simulations},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {3},
+ pages = {571--590},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {Daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature time series
+ from a regional climate model (RegCM2) configured using the continental
+ United States as a domain and run on a 52-km (approximately) spatial
+ resolution were used as input to a distributed hydrologic model for
+ one rainfall-dominated basin (Alapaha River at Statenville, Georgia)
+ and three snowmelt-dominated basins (Animas River at Durango, Colorado;
+ east fork of the Carson River near Gardnerville, Nevada; and Cle
+ Elum River near Roslyn, Washington). For comparison purposes, spatially
+ averaged daily datasets of precipitation and maximum and minimum
+ temperature were developed from measured data for each basin. These
+ datasets included precipitation and temperature data for all stations
+ (hereafter, All-Sta) located within the area of the RegCM2 output
+ used for each basin, but excluded station data used to calibrate
+ the hydrologic model.},
+ doi = {10.1175/1525-7541(2002)003<0571:UORCMO>2.0.CO;2},
+ keywords = {UNITED-STATES, PARAMETERIZATIONS, PRECIPITATION, SCENARIOS, PROJECT},
+ tags = {Climate Models, Downscaling}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hayhoe+al2004,
+ author = {Hayhoe, K. and Cayan, D. and Field, C. and Frumhoff, P. and Maurer,
+ E. and Miller, N. and Moser, S. and Schneider, S. and Cahill, K.
+ and Cleland, E. and Dale, L. and Drapek, R. and Hanemann, R. and
+ Kalkstein, L. and Lenihan, J. and Lunch, C. and Neilson, R. and Sheridan,
+ S. and Verville, J.},
+ title = {Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on {C}alifornia},
+ journal = {Proceedings of The National Academy of Sciences of The United States
+ of America},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {101},
+ pages = {12422--12427},
+ number = {34},
+ abstract = {The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the
+ greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications
+ of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
+ emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California.
+ Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models
+ with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley
+ Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual
+ temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher
+ A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also
+ show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter.
+ Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive
+ sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario,
+ with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By
+ the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme
+ heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality
+ increases two to three times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced
+ by 50-75%; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30-70%. Under A1fi, heatwaves
+ in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related
+ excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine/subalpine
+ forests are reduced by 75-90%; and snowpack declines 73-90%, with
+ cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected
+ modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt
+ California's water rights system. Although interscenario differences
+ in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second
+ half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from
+ preceding decades.},
+ doi = {10.1073/pnas.0404500101},
+ keywords = {SAN-FRANCISCO ESTUARY, UNITED-STATES, POTENTIAL IMPACTS, CHANGE SCENARIOS,
+ WATER-RESOURCES, RIVER-BASINS, MODEL, RESPONSES, WEATHER, MORTALITY},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{haylock+al2006,
+ author = {Haylock, M. and Cawley, G. and Harpham, C. and Wilby, R. and Goodess,
+ C.},
+ title = {Downscaling heavy precipitation over the {U}nited {K}ingdom: a comparison
+ of dynamical and statistical methods and their future scenarios},
+ journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {26},
+ pages = {1397--1415},
+ number = {10},
+ month = {August},
+ abstract = {Six statistical and two dynamical downscaling models were compared
+ with regard to their ability to downscale seven seasonal indices
+ of heavy precipitation for two station networks in northwest and
+ southeast England. The skill among the eight downscaling models was
+ high for those indices and seasons that had greater spatial coherence.
+ Generally, winter showed the highest downscaling skill and summer
+ the lowest. The rainfall indices that were indicative of rainfall
+ occurrence were better modelled than those indicative of intensity.
+ Models based on non-linear artificial neural networks were found
+ to be the best at modelling the inter-annual variability of the indices;
+ however, their strong negative biases implied a tendency to underestimate
+ extremes. A novel approach used in one of the neural network models
+ to output the rainfall probability and the gamma distribution scale
+ and shape parameters for each day meant that resampling methods could
+ be used to circumvent the underestimation of extremes. Six of the
+ models were applied to the Hadley Centre global
+
+ circulation model HadAM3P forced by emissions according to two SRES
+ scenarios. This revealed that the inter-model differences between
+ the future changes in the downscaled precipitation indices were at
+ least as large as the differences between the emission scenarios
+ for a single model. This implies caution when interpreting the output
+ from a single model or a single type of model (e.g. regional climate
+ models) and the advantage of including as many different types of
+ downscaling models, global models and emission scenarios as possible
+ when developing climate-change projections at the local scale.},
+ doi = {10.1002/joc.1318},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.07.29}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{haylock+al2008,
+ author = {Haylock, M. and Hofstra, N. and Klein, A. and Klok, E. and Jones,
+ P. and New, M.},
+ title = {A {E}uropean daily high--resolution gridded data set of surface temperature
+ and precipitation for 1950--2006},
+ journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {113},
+ pages = {1--12},
+ number = {D20119},
+ abstract = {We present a European land-only daily high-resolution gridded data
+ set for precipitation and minimum, maximum, and mean surface temperature
+ for the period 1950–2006. This data set improves on previous products
+ in its spatial resolution and extent, time period, number of contributing
+ stations, and attention to finding the most appropriate method for
+ spatial interpolation of daily climate observations. The gridded
+ data are delivered on four spatial resolutions to match the grids
+ used in previous products as well as many of the rotated pole Regional
+ Climate Models (RCMs) currently in use. Each data set has been designed
+ to provide the best estimate of grid box averages rather than point
+ values to enable direct comparison with RCMs. We employ a three-step
+ process of interpolation, by first interpolating the monthly precipitation
+ totals and monthly mean temperature using three-dimensional thin-plate
+ splines, then interpolating the daily anomalies using indicator and
+ universal kriging for precipitation and kriging with an external
+ drift for temperature, then combining the monthly and daily estimates.
+ Interpolation uncertainty is quantified by the provision of daily
+ standard errors for every grid square. The daily uncertainty averaged
+ across the entire region is shown to be largely dependent on the
+ season and number of contributing observations. We examine the effect
+ that interpolation has on the magnitude of the extremes in the observations
+ by calculating areal reduction factors for daily maximum temperature
+ and precipitation events with return periods up to 10 years.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2008JD010201},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.21}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{he+al2007,
+ author = {He, B. and Takase, K. and Wang, Y.},
+ title = {Regional groundwater prediction model using automatic parameter calibration
+ SCE method for a coastal plain of Seto Island},
+ journal = {Water Resource Management},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {21},
+ pages = {947--959},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {Operational groundwater prediction models vary in complexity, but
+ most of them have parameters for which values must be estimated.
+ In the present study, the proposed regional groundwater prediction
+ model was based on a nonlinear water balance model, which is very
+ easy to be used once its parameters were determined. The traditional
+ procedure of the model calibration was done manually using a trial
+ and error process of parameter adjustments. In this case, the goodness-of-fit
+ of the calibrated model is based on a visual judgment by comparing
+ the simulated and the observed data. It requires considerable training
+ or experience and is also typically laborious and time consuming.
+ Thus, this paper proposed an approach, which considered the possibilities
+ of using a nonlinear optimization technique -- the Shuffled Complex
+ Evolution (SCE) method to calibrate the groundwater model. The applicability
+ of this technique was demonstrated with a case study for a coastal
+ plain in Japan. The performance of the groundwater model with SCE
+ method was evaluated by comparing the measured and predicted data.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s11269-006-9066-7},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hellstromchen2003,
+ author = {Hellstr\"om, C. and Chen, D.},
+ title = {Statistical downscaling based on dynamically downscaled predictors:
+ {A}pplication to monthly precipitation in {S}weden},
+ journal = {Advances In Atmospheric Sciences},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {20},
+ pages = {951--958},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {A prerequisite of a successful statistical downscaling is that large-scale
+ predictors simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) must
+ be realistic. It is assumed here that features smaller than the GCM
+ resolution are important in determining the realism of the large-scale
+ predictors. It is tested whether. a three-step method can improve
+ conventional one-step statistical downscaling. The method uses predictors
+ that are upscaled from a dynamical downscaling instead of predictors
+ taken directly from a GCM simulation. The method is applied to downscaling
+ of monthly precipitation in Sweden. The statistical model used is
+ a multiple regression model that uses indices of large-scale atmospheric
+ circulation and 850-hPa specific humidity as predictors. Data from
+ two GCMs (HadCM2 and ECHAM4) and two RCM experiments of the Rossby
+ Centre model (RCA1) driven by the GCMs are used. It is found that
+ upscaled RCA1 predictors capture the seasonal cycle better than those
+ from the GCMs, and hence increase the reliability of the downscaled
+ precipitation. However, there are only slight improvements in the
+ simulation of the seasonal cycle of downscaled precipitation. Due
+ to the cost of the method and the limited improvements in the downscaling
+ results, the three-step method is not justified to replace the one-step
+ method for downscaling of Swedish precipitation.},
+ doi = {10.1007/BF02915518},
+ keywords = {downscaling, multiple regression, atmospheric circulation indices,
+ monthly precipitation, Sweden, GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL, REGIONAL
+ CLIMATE MODEL, TEMPERATURE TIME-SERIES, ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION,
+ CHANGE SCENARIOS, NORTHERN EUROPE, GCM OUTPUT, SIMULATION, VALIDATION,
+ PERFORMANCE},
+ tags = {Downscaling}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hellstrom+al2001,
+ author = {Hellstr\"om, C. and Chen, D. and Achberger, C. and R\"ais\"anen,
+ J.},
+ title = {Comparison of climate change scenarios for {S}weden based on statistical
+ and dynamical downscaling of monthly precipitation},
+ journal = {Climate Research},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {19},
+ pages = {44--55},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {Two dynamically and statistically downscaled precipitation scenarios
+ for Sweden are compared with respect to changes in the mean. The
+ dynamically downscaled scenarios are generated by a 44 km version
+ of the Rossby Centre regional climate model (RCM). The RCM is driven
+ by data from 2 global greenhouse gas simulations sharing a 2.6°C
+ global warming, one made by the HadCM2 and the other by the ECHAM4
+ general circulation model (GCM). The statistical downscaling model
+ driven by the same GCMs is regression-based and incorporates large-scale
+ circulation indices of the 2 geostrophic wind components (u and v),
+ total vorticity (ξ) and large-scale humidity at 850 hPa (q850) as
+ predictors. The precipitation climates of the GCMs, RCMs and statistical
+ models from the control runs are compared with respect to their ability
+ to reproduce the observed seasonal cycle. Great improvements in the
+ simulation of the seasonal cycle by all the downscaling models compared
+ to the GCMs significantly increase the credibility of the downscaling
+ models. The precipitation changes produced by the statistical models
+ result from changes in all predictors, but the change in ξ is the
+ greatest contributor in southern Sweden followed by q850 and u, while
+ changes in q850 have greater effects in the northern parts of the
+ country. The temporal and spatial variability of precipitation changes
+ are higher in the statistically downscaled scenarios than in the
+ dynamically downscaled ones. Comparisons of the 4 scenarios show
+ that the spread of the scenarios created by the statistical model
+ is on average larger than that between the RCM scenarios. The relatively
+ large average spread is mainly due to the large differences found
+ in summer. The seasonally averaged difference of the dynamical and
+ statistical scenarios for the ECHAM4-based downscaled scenarios is
+ 12%, and for the HadCM2 downscaled scenarios 21%. The differences
+ in annual precipitation change are smaller, on average 4.5% among
+ the HadCM2-based downscaled scenarios, and 6.9% among the ECHAM4-based
+ downscaling scenarios},
+ doi = {10.3354/cr019045},
+ keywords = {downscaling, multiple regression, atmospheric circulation indices,
+ monthly precipitation, Sweden.},
+ tags = {Downscaling}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{helton1996,
+ author = {Helton, J.},
+ title = {Guest editorial: {T}reatement of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty
+ in performance assessment for complex systems},
+ journal = {Reliability Engineering \& System Safety},
+ year = {1996},
+ volume = {54},
+ pages = {91--94},
+ number = {2--3},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0951-8320(96)00066-X},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.03.26}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hendricks2003,
+ author = {{Hendricks Franssen}, {H-J}. and G\'omez-Hern\'andez, J. and Sahuquillo,
+ A.},
+ title = {Coupled inverse modelling of groundwater flow and mass transport
+ and the worth of concentration data},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {281},
+ pages = {281--295},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {This paper presents the extension of the self-calibrating method to
+ the coupled inverse modelling of groundwater flow and mass transport.
+ The method generates equally likely solutions to the inverse problem
+ that display the variability as observed in the field and are not
+ affected by a linearisation of the state equations. Conditioning
+ to the state variables is measured by an objective function including,
+ among others, the mismatch between the simulated and measured concentrations.
+ Conditioning is achieved by minimising the objective function by
+ gradient-based methods. The gradient contains the partial derivatives
+ of the objective function with respect to: log conductivities, log
+ storativities, prescribed heads at boundaries, retardation coefficients
+ and mass sources. The derivatives of the objective function with
+ respect to log conductivity are the most cumbersome and need the
+ most CPU-time to be evaluated. For this reason, to compute this derivative
+ only advective transport is considered. The gradient is calculated
+ by the adjoint-state method. The method is demonstrated in a controlled,
+ synthetic study, in which the worth of concentration data is analysed.
+ It is shown that concentration data are essential to improve transport
+ predictions and also help to improve aquifer characterisation and
+ flow predictions, especially in the upstream part of the aquifer,
+ even in the case that a considerable amount of other experimental
+ data like conductivities and heads are available. Besides, conditioning
+ to concentration data reduces the ensemble variances of estimated
+ transmissivity, hydraulic head and concentration.},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00191-4},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.03.13}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hernandez2006,
+ author = {Hern\'andez, A. and Neuman, S. and Guadagnini, A. and Carrera, J.},
+ title = {Inverse stochastic moment analysis of steady state flow in randomly
+ heterogeneous media},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {42},
+ pages = {W05425},
+ abstract = {Nonlocal stochastic moment equations have been used successfully to
+ analyze steady state and transient flow in randomly heterogeneous
+ media conditional on measured values of medium properties. We present
+ a nonlinear geostatistical inverse algorithm for steady state flow
+ that makes it possible to further condition such analyses on measured
+ values of state variables. Our approach accounts for all scales of
+ spatial variability resolvable by the computational grid. It is based
+ on recursive finite element approximations of exact nonlocal first
+ and second conditional moment equations. Hydraulic conductivity is
+ parameterized geostatistically on the basis of measured values at
+ discrete locations and unknown values at discrete “pilot points.â€
+ Prior estimates of pilot point values are obtained (optionally) by
+ generalized kriging. Posterior estimates at pilot points and (optionally)
+ at measurement points are obtained by calibrating mean flow against
+ measured values of head. The parameters are projected onto a computational
+ grid via kriging. Maximum likelihood calibration allows estimating
+ not only hydraulic but also (optionally) unknown variogram parameters
+ with or without prior information about the former. The approach
+ yields covariance matrices for parameter estimation as well as head
+ and flux prediction errors, the latter being obtained a posteriori.
+ We implement our inverse approach on highly and mildly heterogeneous
+ media under superimposed mean uniform and convergent flows in a bounded
+ two-dimensional domain. Our examples illustrate how conductivity
+ and head data act separately and jointly to reduce parameter estimation
+ errors and to model predictive uncertainty. We also evaluate the
+ functional form of the log conductivity variogram and its parameters
+ using likelihood-based model discrimination criteria.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2005WR004449},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.10.21}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{herrera+al2010,
+ author = {Herrera, S. and Fita, L. and Fernandez, J. and Gutierrez, J.},
+ title = {Evaluation of the mean and extreme precipitation regimes from the
+ {ENSEMBLES} regional climate multimodel simulations over {Spain}},
+ journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {115},
+ pages = {1--13},
+ number = {D21117},
+ abstract = {A state?of?the?art ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations
+ provided by the European Union–funded project ENSEMBLES is used to
+ test the ability of RCMs to reproduce the mean and extreme precipitation
+ regimes over Spain. To this aim, ERA?40–driven simulations at 25
+ km resolution are compared with the 20 km daily precipitation grid
+ Spain02, considering the period 1960–2000. This gridded data set
+ has been interpolated from thousands of quality?controlled stations
+ capturing the spatial variability of precipitation over this RCM
+ benchmark?like area with complex orography and influence of both
+ Atlantic and Mediterranean climates. The results show a good representation
+ of the mean regimes and the annual cycle but an overestimation of
+ rainfall frequency leading to a wrong estimation of wet and dry spells.
+ The amount of rainfall coming from extreme events is also deficient
+ in the RCMs. The use of the multimodel ensemble improves the results
+ of the individual models; moreover, discarding the worst performing
+ models for the particular area and variable leads to improved results
+ and reduced spread.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2010JD013936},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.11.12}
+}
+
+@MISC{hewitt2005,
+ author = {Hewitt, C.},
+ title = {E{NSEMBLES}--providing ensemble--based predictions of climate changes
+ and their impacts},
+ howpublished = {Parliament Magazine, 11 July 2005, p. 57. Available online at \url{http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com/docs/ParlMag_11Jul05.pdf}},
+ year = {2005},
+ tags = {Climate Models, RCMs}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{CIS2003,
+ author = {Hiederer, R. and {de Roo}, A.},
+ title = {A European flow network and catchment data set},
+ institution = {Joint Research Centre, European Commission},
+ year = {2003},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.05.12}
+}
+
+@INPROCEEDINGS{higashiIba2003,
+ author = {Higashi, N. and Iba, H.},
+ title = {Particle swarm optimization with Gaussian mutation},
+ booktitle = {Swarm Intelligence Symposium, 2003. SIS {'}03. Proceedings of the
+ 2003 IEEE},
+ year = {2003},
+ pages = {72--79},
+ month = {april},
+ abstract = { In this paper we present particle swarm optimization with Gaussian
+ mutation combining the idea of the particle swarm with concepts from
+ evolutionary algorithms. This method combines the traditional velocity
+ and position update rules with the ideas of Gaussian mutation. This
+ model is tested and compared with the standard PSO and standard GA.
+ The comparative experiments have been conducted on unimodal functions
+ and multimodal functions. PSO with Gaussian mutation is able to obtain
+ a result superior to GA. We also apply the PSO with Gaussian mutation
+ to a gene network. Consequently, it has succeeded in acquiring better
+ results than those by GA and PSO alone.},
+ doi = {10.1109/SIS.2003.1202250},
+ issn = { },
+ keywords = { Gaussian mutation, evolutionary algorithms, gene network, multimodal
+ functions, particle swarm optimization, position update rules, search
+ techniques, unimodal functions, velocity update rules, Gaussian distribution,
+ evolutionary computation, optimisation, search problems},
+ tags = {Calibration, PSO}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hill2006,
+ author = {Hill, M.},
+ title = {The practical use of simplicity in developing ground water models},
+ journal = {Ground Water},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {44},
+ pages = {775--781},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {The advantages of starting with simple models and building complexity
+ slowly can be significant in the development of ground water models.
+ In many circumstances, simpler models are characterized by fewer
+ defined parameters and shorter execution times. In this work, the
+ number of parameters is used as the primary measure of simplicity
+ and complexity; the advantages of shorter execution times also are
+ considered. The ideas are presented in the context of constructing
+ ground water models but are applicable to many fields. Simplicity
+ first is put in perspective as part of the entire modeling process
+ using 14 guidelines for effective model calibration. It is noted
+ that neither very simple nor very complex models generally produce
+ the most accurate predictions and that determining the appropriate
+ level of complexity is an ill-defined process. It is suggested that
+ a thorough evaluation of observation errors is essential to model
+ development. Finally, specific ways are discussed to design useful
+ ground water models that have fewer parameters and shorter execution
+ times.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1745-6584.2006.00227.x},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{hill1998,
+ author = {Hill, M.},
+ title = {Methods and guidelines for effective model calibration},
+ institution = {United States Geological Survey},
+ year = {1998},
+ type = {Water Resources Investigation Report 98-4005},
+ address = {Denver, Colorado, USA},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{mf2kobs,
+ author = {Hill, M. and Banta, E. and Harbaugh, A. and Anderman, E.},
+ title = {M{ODFLOW}--2000. The {U}.{S}. {G}eological {S}urvey modular ground-water
+ model--{U}ser guide to the observation, sensitivity, and parameter--estimation
+ processes and three post processing programs},
+ institution = {United States Geological Survey},
+ year = {2000},
+ type = {Open-File Report 00-184},
+ address = {Denver, Colorado, USA},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hilletal1998,
+ author = {Hill, M. and Cooley, R. and Pollock, D.},
+ title = {A controlled experiment in ground water flow model calibration},
+ journal = {Ground Water},
+ year = {1998},
+ volume = {36},
+ pages = {520--535},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {Nonlinear regression was introduced to ground water modeling in the
+ 1970s, but has been used very little to calibrate numerical models
+ of complicated ground water systems. Apparently, nonlinear regression
+ is thought by many to be incapable of addressing such complex problems.
+ With what we believe to be the most complicated synthetic test case
+ used for such a study, this work investigates using nonlinear regression
+ in ground water model calibration. Results of the study fall into
+ two categories. First, the study demonstrates how systematic use
+ of a well designed nonlinear regression method can indicate the importance
+ of different types of data and can lead to successive improvement
+ of models and their parameterizations. Our method differs from previous
+ methods presented in the ground water literature in that (1) weighting
+ is more closely related to expected data errors than is usually the
+ case; (2) defined diagnostic statistics allow for more effective
+ evaluation of the available data, the model, and their interaction;
+ and (3) prior information is used more cautiously. Second, our results
+ challenge some commonly held beliefs about model calibration. For
+ the test case considered, we show that (1) field measured values
+ of hydraulic conductivity are not as directly applicable to models
+ as their use in some geostatistical methods imply; (2) a unique model
+ does not necessarily need to be identified to obtain accurate predictions;
+ and (3) in the absence of obvious model bias, model error was normally
+ distributed. The complexity of the test case involved implies that
+ the methods used and conclusions drawn are likely to be powerful
+ in practice.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1745-6584.1998.tb02824.x},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.02.09}
+}
+
+@BOOK{hilltiedeman2007,
+ title = {Effective groundwater model calibration: {W}ith analysis of data,
+ sensitivities, predictions and uncertainty},
+ publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons, Inc.},
+ year = {2007},
+ author = {Hill, M. and Tiedeman, C.},
+ pages = {480},
+ address = {New Jersey},
+ edition = {First},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.03.13}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hinnell+al2010,
+ author = {Hinnell, A. and Ferr\'e, T. and Vrugt, J. and Huisman, J. and Moysey,
+ S. and Rings, J. and Kowalsky, M.},
+ title = {Improved extraction of hydrologic information from geophysical data
+ through coupled hydrogeophysical inversion},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {46},
+ pages = {W00D40},
+ abstract = {There is increasing interest in the use of multiple measurement types,
+ including indirect (geophysical) methods, to constrain hydrologic
+ interpretations. To date, most examples integrating geophysical measurements
+ in hydrology have followed a three-step, uncoupled inverse approach.
+ This approach begins with independent geophysical inversion to infer
+ the spatial and/or temporal distribution of a geophysical property
+ (e.g., electrical conductivity). The geophysical property is then
+ converted to a hydrologic property (e.g., water content) through
+ a petrophysical relation. The inferred hydrologic property is then
+ used either independently or together with direct hydrologic observations
+ to constrain a hydrologic inversion. We present an alternative approach,
+ coupled inversion, which relies on direct coupling of hydrologic
+ models and geophysical models during inversion. We compare the abilities
+ of coupled and uncoupled inversion using a synthetic example where
+ surface-based electrical conductivity surveys are used to monitor
+ one-dimensional infiltration and redistribution. Through this illustrative
+ example, we show that the coupled approach can provide significant
+ reductions in uncertainty for hydrologic properties and associated
+ predictions if the underlying model is a faithful representation
+ of the hydrologic processes. However, if the hydrologic model exhibits
+ structural errors, the coupled inversion may not improve the hydrologic
+ interpretation. Despite this limitation, our results support the
+ use of coupled hydrogeophysical inversion both for the direct benefits
+ of reduced errors during inversion and because of the secondary benefits
+ that accrue because of the extensive communication and sharing of
+ data necessary to produce a coupled model, which will likely lead
+ to more thoughtful use of geophysical data in hydrologic studies.
+ },
+ doi = {10.1029/2008WR007060},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hisdal+al2001,
+ author = {Hisdal, Hege and Stahl, Kerstin and Tallaksen, Lena M. and Demuth,
+ Siegfried},
+ title = {Have streamflow droughts in Europe become more severe or frequent?},
+ journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {21},
+ pages = {317--333},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {Changes in the magnitude and frequency of droughts will have extensive
+ impacts on water management, agriculture and aquatic ecosystems.
+ With the projected global temperature increase, scientists generally
+ agree that the global hydrological cycle will intensify and suggest
+ that extremes will become or have already become more common. In
+ this study, a pan-European dataset of more than 600 daily streamflow
+ records from the European Water Archive (EWA) was analysed to detect
+ spatial and temporal changes in streamflow droughts. Four different
+ time periods were analysed: 1962–1990, 1962–1995, 1930–1995 and 1911–1995.
+ The focus was on hydrological droughts derived by applying the threshold
+ level approach, which defines droughts as periods during which the
+ streamflow is below a certain threshold. The Annual Maximum Series
+ (AMS) of drought severity and the frequency of droughts in Partial
+ Duration Series (PDS) were studied. Despite several reports on recent
+ droughts in Europe, the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and a resampling
+ test for trend detection showed that it is not possible to conclude
+ that drought conditions in general have become more severe or frequent.
+ The period analysed and the selection of stations strongly influenced
+ the regional pattern. For most stations, no significant changes were
+ detected. However, distinct regional differences were found. Within
+ the period 1962–1990 examples of increasing drought deficit volumes
+ were found in Spain, the eastern part of Eastern Europe and in large
+ parts of the UK, whereas decreasing drought deficit volumes occurred
+ in large parts of Central Europe and in the western part of Eastern
+ Europe. Trends in drought deficit volumes or durations could, to
+ a large extent, be explained through changes in precipitation or
+ artificial influences in the catchment. Changes in the number of
+ drought events per year were determined by the combined effect of
+ climate and catchment characteristics such as storage capacity. The
+ importance of the time period chosen for trend analysis is illustrated
+ using two very long time series. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological
+ Society},
+ doi = {10.1002/joc.619},
+ issn = {1097-0088},
+ keywords = {streamflow drought, streamflow, trend test, Europe, regional study,
+ European Water Archive (EWA)},
+ publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons, Ltd.}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hoeksema1984,
+ author = {Hoeksema, R. and Kitanidis, P.},
+ title = {An application of the geostatistical approach to the inverse problem
+ in two--dimensional groundwater modeling},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1984},
+ volume = {20},
+ pages = {1003-1020},
+ number = {7},
+ month = {July},
+ abstract = {The geostatistical approach to the estimation of transmissivity from
+ head and transmissivity measurements is developed for two-dimensional
+ steady flow. The field of the logarithm of transmissivity (logtransmissivity)
+ is represented as a zero-order intrinsic random field; its spatial
+ structure is described in this application through a two-term covariance
+ function that is linear in the parameters ?1 and ?2. Linearization
+ of the discretized flow equations allows the construction of the
+ joint covariance matrix of the head and log transmissivity measurements
+ as a linear function of ?1 and ?2. In this particular application
+ the coefficient matrices are calculated numerically in a noniterative
+ fashion. Maximum likelihood estimation is employed to estimate ?1
+ and ?2 as well as additional parameters from measurements. Linear
+ estimation theory (cokriging) then yields point or block-averaged
+ estimates of transmissivity. The approach is first applied to a test
+ case with favorable results. It is shown that the application of
+ the methodology gives good estimates of transmissivities. It is also
+ shown that when the transmissivities are used in a numerical model
+ they reproduce the head measurements quite well. Results from the
+ application of the methodology to the Jordan aquifer in Iowa are
+ also presented.},
+ doi = {10.1029/WR020i007p01003},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.09.11}
+}
+
+@INPROCEEDINGS{hoeting2002,
+ author = {Hoeting, J.},
+ title = {Methodology for {B}ayesian model averaging: {A}n update},
+ booktitle = {International Biometric Conference},
+ year = {2002},
+ pages = {231--240},
+ address = {Freiburg. Germany},
+ publisher = {International Biometric Society},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hoeting1999,
+ author = {Hoeting, J. and Madigan, D. and Raftery, A. and Volinsky, C.},
+ title = {Bayesian model averaging: {A} tutorial},
+ journal = {Statistical Science},
+ year = {1999},
+ volume = {14},
+ pages = {382--401},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {Standard statistical practice ignores model uncertainty. Data analysts
+ typically select a model from some class of models and then proceed
+ as if the selected model had generated the data. This approach ignores
+ the uncertainty in model selection, leading to over-confident in-
+ ferences and decisions that are more risky than one thinks they are.
+ Bayesian model averaging (BMA) provides a coherent mechanism for
+ ac- counting for this model uncertainty. Several methods for implementing
+ BMA have recently emerged. We discuss these methods and present a
+ number of examples. In these examples, BMA provides improved out-of-
+ sample predictive performance. We also provide a catalogue of currently
+ available BMA software.},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23},
+ url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2676803}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hofstra+al2010,
+ author = {Hofstra, N. and New, M. and {McSweeney}, C.},
+ title = {The influence of interpolation and station network density on the
+ distributions and trends of climate variables in gridded daily data},
+ journal = {Climate Dynamics},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {35},
+ pages = {841--858},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {We study the influence of station network density on the distributions
+ and trends in indices of area-average daily precipitation and temperature
+ in the E-OBS high resolution gridded dataset of daily climate over
+ Europe, which was produced with the primary purpose of Regional Climate
+ Model evaluation. Area averages can only be determined with reasonable
+ accuracy from a sufficiently large number of stations within a grid-box.
+ However, the station network on which E-OBS is based comprises only
+ 2,316 stations, spread unevenly across approximately 18,000 0.22°
+ grid-boxes. Consequently, grid-box data in E-OBS are derived through
+ interpolation of stations up to 500 km distant, with the distance
+ of stations that contribute significantly to any grid-box value increasing
+ in areas with lower station density. Since more dispersed stations
+ have less shared variance, the resultant interpolated values are
+ likely to be over-smoothed, and extreme daily values even more so.
+ We perform an experiment over five E-OBS grid boxes for precipitation
+ and temperature that have a sufficiently dense local station network
+ to enable a reasonable estimate of the area-average. We then create
+ a series of randomly selected station sub-networks ranging in size
+ from four to all stations within the E-OBS interpolation search radii.
+ For each sub-network realisation, we estimate the grid-box average
+ applying the same interpolation methodology as used for E-OBS, and
+ then evaluate the effect of network density on the distribution of
+ daily values, as well as trends in extremes indices. The results
+ show that when fewer stations have been used for the interpolation,
+ both precipitation and temperature are over-smoothed, leading to
+ a strong tendency for interpolated daily values to be reduced relative
+ to the “true†area-average. The smoothing is greatest for higher
+ percentiles, and therefore has a disproportionate effect on extremes
+ and any derived extremes indices. For many regions of the E-OBS dataset,
+ the station density is sufficiently low to expect this smoothing
+ effect to be significant and this should be borne in mind by any
+ users of the E-OBS dataset.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00382-009-0698-1},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.11.11}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{holvoet+al2005,
+ author = {Holvoet, K. and {van Griensven}, A. and Seuntjens, P. and Vanrolleghem,
+ P.},
+ title = {Sensitivity analysis for hydrology and pesticide supply towards the
+ river in SWAT},
+ journal = {Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {30},
+ pages = {518--526},
+ number = {8--10},
+ abstract = {The dynamic behaviour of pesticides in river systems strongly depends
+ on varying climatological conditions and agricultural management
+ practices. To describe this behaviour at the river-basin scale, integrated
+ hydrological and water quality models are needed. A crucial step
+ in understanding the various processes determining pesticide fate
+ is to perform a sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analysis for hydrology
+ and pesticide supply in SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) will
+ provide useful support for the development of a reliable hydrological
+ model and will give insight in which parameters are most sensitive
+ concerning pesticide supply towards rivers. The study was performed
+ on the Nil catchment in Belgium. In this study we utilised an LH-OAT
+ sensitivity analysis. The LH-OAT method combines the One-factor-At-a-Time
+ (OAT) design and Latin Hypercube (LH) sampling by taking the Latin
+ Hypercube samples as initial points for an OAT design. By means of
+ the LH-OAT sensitivity analysis, the dominant hydrological parameters
+ were determined and a reduction of the number of model parameters
+ was performed. Dominant hydrological parameters were the curve number
+ (CN2), the surface runoff lag (surlag), the recharge to deep aquifer
+ (rchrg_dp) and the threshold depth of water in the shallow aquifer
+ (GWQMN). Next, the selected parameters were estimated by manual calibration.
+ Hereby, the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency improved from
+ an initial value of ?22.4 to +0.53. In the second part, sensitivity
+ analyses were performed to provide insight in which parameters or
+ model inputs contribute most to variance in pesticide output. The
+ results of this study show that for the Nil catchment, hydrologic
+ parameters are dominant in controlling pesticide predictions. The
+ other parameter that affects pesticide concentrations in surface
+ water is ‘apfp_pest’, which meaning was changed into a parameter
+ that controls direct losses to the river system (e.g., through the
+ clean up of spray equipment, leaking tools, processing of spray waste
+ on paved surfaces). As a consequence, it is of utmost importance
+ that hydrology is well calibrated while––in this case––a correct
+ estimation of the direct losses is of importance as well. Besides,
+ a study of only the pesticide related parameters, i.e. application
+ rate (kg/ha), application time (day), etc., reveals that the application
+ time has much more impact than the application rate, which has itself
+ a higher impact than errors in the daily rainfall observations.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.pce.2005.07.006},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.10.10}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hong2008,
+ author = {Hong, Wei-Chiang},
+ title = {Rainfall forecasting by technological machine learning models},
+ journal = {Applied Mathematics and Computation},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {200},
+ pages = {41-57},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {Accurate forecasting of rainfall has been one of the most important
+ issues in hydrological research. Due to rainfall forecasting involves
+ a rather complex nonlinear data pattern; there are lots of novel
+ forecasting approaches to improve the forecasting accuracy. Recurrent
+ artificial neural networks (RNNS) have played a crucial role in forecasting
+ rainfall data. Meanwhile, support vector machines (SVMs) have been
+ successfully employed to solve nonlinear regression and time series
+ problems. This investigation elucidates the feasibility of hybrid
+ model of RNNs and SVMs, namely RSVR, to forecast rainfall depth values.
+ Moreover, chaotic particle swarm optimization algorithm (CPSO) is
+ employed to choose the parameters of a SVR model. Subsequently, example
+ of rainfall values during typhoon periods from Northern Taiwan is
+ used to illustrate the proposed RSVRCPSO model. The empirical results
+ reveal that the proposed model yields well forecasting performance,
+ RSVRCPSO model provides a promising alternative for forecasting rainfall
+ values.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.amc.2007.10.046},
+ keywords = {Rainfall forecasting; Support vector regression (SVR); Chaotic particle
+ swarm optimization algorithm (CPSO); Recurrent SVR; Machine learning},
+ tags = {PSO}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hornberger+al1985,
+ author = {Hornberger, G. and Beven, K. and Cosby, B. and Sappington, D.},
+ title = {Shenandoah Watershed Study: Calibration of a Topography-Based, Variable
+ Contributing Area Hydrological Model to a Small Forested Catchment},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1985},
+ volume = {21},
+ pages = {1841--1850},
+ number = {12},
+ abstract = {The topography-based, variable contributing area model of catchment
+ hydrology of K. J. Beven and E. F. Wood (1983) was adapted for continuous
+ simulation and extended to take account of observed processes in
+ White Oak Run, a small forested catchment in Shenandoah National
+ Park, Virginia. Automatic calibration of the model was attempted
+ using eight different objective functions. All objective functions
+ were indifferent to many of the model parameters and thus parameter
+ estimation could not be done reliably. On the basis of results from
+ a regionalized sensitivity analysis, the original model structure
+ was greatly simplified. The parameters of the simplified model, which
+ produced fits to the measured data very nearly as good as did the
+ more complex model, were estimated well using a sum of squared errors
+ criterion.},
+ doi = {10.1029/WR021i012p01841},
+ tags = {conceptual model, Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{horton+al2006,
+ author = {Horton, P. and Schaefli, B. and Mezghani, A. and Beno\^it, H. and
+ Musy, A.},
+ title = {Assessment of climate--change impacts on alpine discharge regimes
+ with climate model uncertainty},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {20},
+ pages = {2091--2109},
+ number = {10},
+ abstract = {This study analyses the uncertainty induced by the use of different
+ state-of-the-art climate models on the prediction of climate-change
+ impacts on the runoff regimes of 11 mountainous catchments in the
+ Swiss Alps having current proportions of glacier cover between 0
+ and 50%. The climate-change scenarios analysed are the result of
+ 19 regional climate model (RCM) runs obtained for the period 2070-2099
+ based on two different greenhouse-gas emission scenarios (the A2
+ and B2 scenarios defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
+ Change) and on three different coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation
+ models (AOGCMs), namely HadCM3, ECHAM4/OPYC3 and ARPEGE/OPA. The
+ hydrological response of the study catchments to the climate scenarios
+ is simulated through a conceptual reservoir-based precipitation-runoff
+ transformation model called GSM-SOCONT. For the glacierized catchments,
+ the glacier surface corresponding to these future scenarios is updated
+ through a conceptual glacier surface evolution model. The results
+ obtained show that all climate-change scenarios induce, in all catchments,
+ an earlier start of the snowmelt period, leading to a shift of the
+ hydrological regimes and of the maximum monthly discharges. The mean
+ annual runoff decreases significantly in most cases. For the glacierized
+ catchments, the simulated regime modifications are mainly due to
+ an increase of the mean temperature and the corresponding impacts
+ on the snow accumulation and melting processes. The hydrological
+ regime of the catchments located at lower altitudes is more strongly
+ affected by the changes of the seasonal precipitation. For a given
+ emission scenario, the simulated regime modifications of all catchments
+ are highly variable for the different RCM runs. This variability
+ is induced by the driving AOGCM, but also in large part by the inter-RCM
+ variability. The differences between the different RCM runs are so
+ important that the predicted climate-change impacts for the two emission
+ scenarios A2 and B2 are overlapping.},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.6197},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, Climate Change}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{houghtoncarr1999,
+ author = {{Houghton-Carr}, H.},
+ title = {Assessment criteria for simple conceptual daily rainfall-runoff models},
+ journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
+ year = {1999},
+ volume = {44},
+ pages = {237--261},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {Four simple conceptual daily rainfall-runoff models are applied to
+ a 25-basin data set. The drainage basins are all from the UK, covering
+ a range of sizes, topographies, soils and climates. The quality of
+ the simulation of the observed response is classically quantified
+ by a minimized objective function. However, in this instance, model
+ performance is judged by a range of quantitative and qualitative
+ measures of fit, applied to both the calibration and validation periods.
+ These include efficiency, mean annual runoff, baseflow index, the
+ synthetic monthly and daily flow regimes, and the flow duration curve.
+ The main conclusion is that the quantitative criteria used alone
+ are rarely sufficient to determine the quality of the model performance.
+ It is usually necessary to include some qualitative indication of
+ goodness-of-fit, such as the quality of the synthetic daily flow
+ hydrograph. However, assessment of the quality of daily flow regimes
+ can be highly subjective. },
+ doi = {10.1080/02626669909492220},
+ tags = {Calibration, Goodness-of-Fit}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{houston2006,
+ author = {Houston, J.},
+ title = {The great {A}tacama flood of 2001 and its implications for Andean
+ hydrology},
+ journal = {Hydrologcial Processes},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {20},
+ pages = {591--610},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {In February 2001, widespread flooding occurred throughout the Atacama
+ Desert of northern Chile and southern Peru. It was particularly severe
+ in the RÃo Loa basin, where roads and bridges were disrupted and
+ the town of Calama inundated. The instantaneous peak flow in the
+ RÃo Salado, a tributary of the RÃo Loa, reached 310 m3 s-1, an order
+ of magnitude higher than any previously recorded event. The flood
+ is estimated to have a return period of 100-200 years and is shown
+ to have been caused by intense, long-duration rainfall in the western
+ Cordillera associated with La Niña. The surface water response is
+ typical of arid areas and highly dependent on antecedent conditions,
+ but is quite different in perennial and ephemeral catchments. Ephemeral
+ flood flows suffer high transmission losses, recharging phreatic
+ aquifers. Perennial rivers have lower runoff coefficients, but baseflow
+ levels remained high after the event for several months due to bank
+ storage rebound and interflow. Extremely high energies of 3000 W
+ m-2 were generated by the floods in the Cordillera, becoming less
+ in the Precordillera and downstream. Erosion and sediment transport
+ were consequently highest in the upper and middle reaches of the
+ rivers, with mixed erosion-deposition in the lowest reach. The new
+ insights gained from the interpretation and quantification of this
+ event have important implications for palaeoenvironmental analysis,
+ hazard management, water resource evaluation and the palaeohydrological
+ evolution of the Andes.},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.5926},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.04.08}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{houston2006a,
+ author = {Houston, J.},
+ title = {Evaporation in the {Atacama Desert}: {A}n empirical study of spatio--temporal
+ variations and their causes},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {330},
+ pages = {402--412},
+ number = {3--4},
+ abstract = {The Atacama Desert is hyper-arid, and areas where adequate moisture
+ exists for evaporation are spatially highly restricted. Nevertheless,
+ water resources exist and their evaluation requires knowledge of
+ this elusive but important component of the hydrological cycle. Evaporation
+ may occur in four typical areas: rivers and associated riparian zones,
+ localized springs, large playas and extensive areas of bare soil
+ after infrequent precipitation events. Transpiration is locally possible
+ where moisture is sufficiently close to the surface to allow phreatophytes
+ or scarce grass cover to grow, but virtually no information is available
+ for quantification. Pan evaporation data from 11 stations for the
+ period 1977–1991 is analyzed and complemented by analysis of an evaporation
+ study conducted in the Salar de Atacama during 1987/1988. The results
+ show that pan evaporation, and hence maximum potential evaporation
+ may be considered largely a function of maximum temperature and elevation
+ as well as density of the evaporating fluid. Actual evaporation is
+ limited by available moisture and diminishes rapidly as the level
+ of soil moisture saturation drops below the soil surface, extinguishing
+ at ca. 2 m depth. Evaporation is greatest during the summer, but
+ at higher elevations convective cloudiness develops during January
+ and February reducing evaporating rates at a time when significant
+ precipitation may occur. Inter-annual variations in pan evaporation
+ are considerable and weakly correlated with ENSO, but variations
+ in actual evaporation are damped by comparison. Regression equations
+ are developed which have widespread applicability and may be used
+ to estimate evaporation in areas where no site-specific data exists.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.03.036},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{houston2006b,
+ author = {Houston, J.},
+ title = {Recharge to groundwater in the {Turi} {Basin}, northern {Chile}:
+ {A}n evaluation based on tritium and cholride mass balance techniques},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {334},
+ pages = {534--544},
+ number = {3--4},
+ abstract = {The Turi Basin contains an unconfined phreatic aquifer within the
+ Toconce Formation volcano-sedimentary sequence that passes eastwards
+ under the Quaternary volcanic chain and outcrops in the Altiplano.
+ The phreatic aquifer is floored by impermeable welded Miocene ignimbrites.
+ Precipitation captured by the volcanic edifices infiltrates through
+ high permeability soils to recharge the phreatic aquifer. The hydrochemistry
+ of the groundwater in the phreatic aquifer shows little evidence
+ of mixing with geothermal water and therefore approximates to a closed
+ system. Tritium values demonstrate that recharge is occurring under
+ current climatic conditions and takes around 40 years to pass 10+
+ km from recharge areas on the slopes of the volcanoes and the Altiplano
+ to the center of the basin. The chloride mass balance technique has
+ been used to quantify precipitation recharge at 15,500 m3 d?1. This
+ is significantly less than the flow through the phreatic aquifer
+ (58,000–86,000 m3 d?1) calculated from its physical properties and
+ the difference is interpreted to be due to subsurface inflow through
+ the Toconce Formation from the Altiplano. The results of this study
+ have wider application throughout the Andean hydrological environment
+ of northern Chile.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.10.030},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{houston2002,
+ author = {Houston, J.},
+ title = {Groundwater recharge through an alluvial fan in the {A}tacama {D}esert,
+ northern {C}hile: {M}echanisms, magnitudes and causes},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {16},
+ pages = {3019--3035},
+ number = {15},
+ abstract = {The Chacarilla fan in the Atacama Desert is one of several formed
+ in the Late Miocene at the foot of the Pre-Andean Cordillera overlying
+ the large, complex, Pampa Tamarugal aquifer contained in the continental
+ clastic sediments of the fore-arc basin. The Pampa Tamarugal aquifer
+ is a strategic source of water for northern Chile but there is continuing
+ doubt over the resource magnitude and recharge. During January 2000
+ a 1 in 4 year storm in the Andes delivered a 34 million m3 flash
+ flood to the fan apex where c. 70% percolated to the underlying aquifers.
+ Groundwater recharge through the fan is calculated to be a minimum
+ of 200 l/s or 6% of the long-term catchment rainfall. These figures
+ are supported by hydrochemical data that suggest that recharge may
+ be 9% of long-term rainfall. Isotopic data suggest groundwater less
+ than 50 years old is transmitted westward through the permeable sheetflood
+ sediments of the fan overlying the main aquifer. Analysis of this
+ and other events shows that the hydrological system is non-linear
+ with positive feedback. The magnitude of groundwater recharge is
+ dependent on climatic variations, antecedent soil moisture storage
+ and changes in channel characteristics. Long-term declines in groundwater
+ level may partly result from climatic fluctuations and the causes
+ of such fluctuations are discussed.},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.1086},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hsu2009,
+ author = {Hsu, K. and Moradkhani, H. and Sorooshian, S.},
+ title = {A sequential {B}ayesian approach for hydrologic model selection and
+ prediction},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {45},
+ pages = {W00B12},
+ abstract = {When a single model is used for hydrologic prediction, it must be
+ capable of estimating system behavior accurately at all times. Multiple-model
+ approaches integrate several model behaviors and, when effective,
+ they can provide better estimates than that of any single model alone.
+ This paper discusses a sequential model fusion strategy that uses
+ the Bayes rule. This approach calculates each model's transient posterior
+ distribution at each time when a new observation is available and
+ merges all model estimates on the basis of each model's posterior
+ probability. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of this approach
+ through case studies that fuse three hydrologic models, auto regressive
+ with exogenous inputs, Sacramento soil moisture accounting, and artificial
+ neural network models, to predict daily watershed streamflow.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2008WR006824},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.02.22}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hu2000,
+ author = {Hu, L.},
+ title = {Gradual deformation and iterative calibration of {G}aussian--related
+ stochastic models},
+ journal = {Mathematical Geology},
+ year = {2000},
+ volume = {32},
+ pages = {87--108},
+ number = {1},
+ month = {January},
+ abstract = {This paper describes a new method for gradually deforming realizations
+ of Gaussian-related stochastic models while preserving their spatial
+ variability. This method consists in building a stochastic process
+ whose state space is the ensemble of the realizations of a spatial
+ stochastic model. In particular, a stochastic process, built by combining
+ independent Gaussian random functions, is proposed to perform the
+ gradual deformation of realizations. Then, the gradual deformation
+ algorithm is coupled with an optimization algorithm to calibrate
+ realizations of stochastic models to nonlinear data. The method is
+ applied to calibrate a continuous and a discrete synthetic permeability
+ fields to well-test pressure data. The examples illustrate the efficiency
+ of the proposed method. Furthermore, we present some extensions of
+ this method (multidimensional gradual deformation, gradual deformation
+ with respect to structural parameters, and local gradual deformation)
+ that are useful in practice. Although the method described in this
+ paper is operational only in the Gaussian framework (e.g., lognormal
+ model, truncated Gaussian model, etc.), the idea of gradually deforming
+ realizations through a stochastic process remains general and therefore
+ promising even for calibrating non-Gaussian models.},
+ doi = {10.1023/A:1007506918588},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.10.20}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{huangmohan2005,
+ author = {Huang, T. and Mohan, A.S.},
+ title = {A Hybrid Boundary Condition for Robust Particle Swarm Optimization},
+ journal = {Antennas and Wireless Propagation Letters},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {4},
+ pages = {112-117},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {The particle swarm optimization (PSO) technique is a powerful stochastic
+ evolutionary algorithm that can be used to find the global optimum
+ solution in a complex search space. However, it has been observed
+ that there is a great variation in its performance due to the dimensionality
+ of the problem and the location of the global optimum with respect
+ to the boundaries of the search space. The present paper attempts
+ to resolve this problem by proposing a simple hybrid "damping" boundary
+ condition that combines the characteristics offered by the existing
+ "absorbing" and "reflecting" boundaries. Simulation results on microwave
+ image reconstruction have shown that with the proposed "damping"
+ boundary condition, a much robust and consistent optimization performance
+ can be obtained for PSO regardless of the dimensionality and location
+ of the global optimum solution.},
+ doi = {10.1109/LAWP.2005.846166},
+ keywords = {damping boundary condition},
+ tags = {PSO}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hughes+al2006,
+ author = {Hughes, D. and Andersson, L. and Wilk, J. and Savenije, H.},
+ title = {Regional calibration of the Pitman model for the Okavango River},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {331},
+ pages = {30--42},
+ number = {1-2},
+ abstract = {This paper reports on the application of a monthly rainfall-runoff
+ model for the Okavango River Basin. Streamflow is mainly generated
+ in Angola where the Cuito and Cubango rivers arise. They then join
+ and cross the Namibia/Angola border, flowing into the Okavango wetland
+ in Botswana. The model is a modified version of the Pitman model,
+ including more explicit ground and surface water interactions. Significant
+ limitations in access to climatological data, and lack of sufficiently
+ long records of observed flow for the eastern sub-basins represent
+ great challenges to model calibration. The majority of the runoff
+ is generated in the wetter headwater tributaries, while the lower
+ sub-basins are dominated by channel loss processes with very little
+ incremental flow contributions, even during wet years. The western
+ tributaries show significantly higher seasonal variation in flow,
+ compared to the baseflow dominated eastern tributaries: observations
+ that are consistent with their geological differences. The basin
+ was sub-divided into 24 sub-basins, of which 18 have gauging stations
+ at their outlet. Satisfactory simulations were achieved with sub-basin
+ parameter value differences that correspond to the spatial variability
+ in basin physiographic characteristics. The limited length of historical
+ rainfall and river discharge data over Angola precluded the use of
+ a split sample calibration/validation test. However, satellite generated
+ rainfall data, revised to reflect the same frequency characteristics
+ as the historical rainfall data, were used to validate the model
+ against the available downstream flow data during the 1990s. The
+ overall conclusion is that the model, in spite of the limited data
+ access, adequately represents the hydrological response of the basin
+ and that it can be used to assess the impact of future development
+ scenarios. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.04.047},
+ keywords = {Okavango basin, rainfall-runoff models, regional calibration},
+ optannote = {"The overall conclusion is that the monthly rainfall-runoff model,
+ in spite of the limited data access, adequately represents the hydrological
+ response of the basin and that it can be used to assess the impact
+ of future development scenarios."abstract},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hulme+al1999,
+ author = {Hulme, M. and Mitchell, J. and Ingram, W. and Lowe, J. and Johns,
+ T. and New, M. and Viner, D.},
+ title = {Climate change scenarios for global impacts studies},
+ journal = {Global Environmental Change},
+ year = {1999},
+ volume = {9},
+ pages = {S3--S19},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {We describe a set of global climate change scenarios that have been
+ used in a series of studies investigating the global impacts of climate
+ change on several environmental systems and resources  ecosystems,
+ food security, water resources, malaria and coastal flooding. These
+ scenarios derive from modelling experiments completed by the Hadley
+ Centre over the last four years using successive versions of their
+ coupled ocean--atmosphere global climate model. The scenarios benefit
+ from ensemble simulations (made using HadCM2) and from an un-flux-corrected
+ experiment (made using HadCM3), but consider only the effects of
+ increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The effects of associated
+ changes in sulphate aerosol concentrations are not considered. The
+ scenarios are presented for three future time periods  30-year
+ means centred on the 2020s, the 2050s and the 2080s  and are expressed
+ with respect to the mean 1961--1990 climate. A global land observed
+ climatology at 0.5° latitude/longitude resolution is used to describe
+ current climate. Other scenario variables  atmospheric CO2 concentrations,
+ global-mean sea-level rise and non-climatic assumptions relating
+ to population and economy  are also provided. We discuss the limitations
+ of the created scenarios and in particular draw attention to sources
+ of uncertainty that we have not fully sampled},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0959-3780(99)00015-1},
+ keywords = {Climate change scenarios, HadCM2, HadCM3, Sea-level rise},
+ tags = {Scenarios}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hunt2007,
+ author = {Hunt, R. and Doherty, J. and Tonkin, M.},
+ title = {Are models too simple? {A}rguments for increased parameterization},
+ journal = {Ground Water},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {45},
+ pages = {254--262},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {The idea that models should be as simple as possible is often accepted
+ without question. However, too much simplification and parsimony
+ may degrade a model's utility. Models are often constructed to make
+ predictions; yet, they are commonly parameterized with a focus on
+ calibration, regardless of whether (1) the calibration data can constrain
+ simulated predictions or (2) the number and type of calibration parameters
+ are commensurate with the hydraulic property details on which key
+ predictions may depend. Parameterization estimated through the calibration
+ process is commonly limited by the necessity that the number of calibration
+ parameters be smaller than the number of observations. This limitation
+ largely stems from historical restrictions in calibration and computing
+ capability; we argue here that better methods and computing capabilities
+ are now available and should become more widely used. To make this
+ case, two approaches to model calibration are contrasted: (1) a traditional
+ approach based on a small number of homogeneous parameter zones defined
+ by the modeler a priori and (2) regularized inversion, which includes
+ many more parameters than the traditional approach. We discuss some
+ advantages of regularized inversion, focusing on the increased insight
+ that can be gained from calibration data. We present these issues
+ using reasoning that we believe has a common sense appeal to modelers;
+ knowledge of mathematics is not required to follow our arguments.
+ We present equations in an Appendix, however, to illustrate the fundamental
+ differences between traditional model calibration and a regularized
+ inversion approach.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1745-6584.2007.00316.x},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{huntington2006,
+ author = {Huntington, T.},
+ title = {Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: {R}eview
+ and synthesis},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {319},
+ pages = {83--95},
+ number = {1--4},
+ abstract = {One of the more important questions in hydrology is: if the climate
+ warms in the future, will there be an intensification of the water
+ cycle and, if so, the nature of that intensification? There is considerable
+ interest in this question because an intensification of the water
+ cycle may lead to changes in water-resource availability, an increase
+ in the frequency and intensity of tropical storms, floods, and droughts,
+ and an amplification of warming through the water vapor feedback.
+ Empirical evidence for ongoing intensification of the water cycle
+ would provide additional support for the theoretical framework that
+ links intensification with warming. This paper briefly reviews the
+ current state of science regarding historical trends in hydrologic
+ variables, including precipitation, runoff, tropospheric water vapor,
+ soil moisture, glacier mass balance, evaporation, evapotranspiration,
+ and growing season length. Data are often incomplete in spatial and
+ temporal domains and regional analyses are variable and sometimes
+ contradictory; however, the weight of evidence indicates an ongoing
+ intensification of the water cycle. In contrast to these trends,
+ the empirical evidence to date does not consistently support an increase
+ in the frequency or intensity of tropical storms and floods.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.07.003},
+ tags = {Global Cycle}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hurkmans+al2010,
+ author = {Hurkmans, R. and Terink, W. and Uijlenhoet, R. and Torfs, P. and
+ Jacob, D. and Troch, P.},
+ title = {Changes in streamflow dynamics in the {R}hine basin under three high--resolution
+ regional climate scenarios},
+ journal = {Journal of Climate},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {23},
+ pages = {679--699},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {Because of global warming, the hydrologic behavior of the Rhine basin
+ is expected to shift from a combined snowmelt- and rainfall-driven
+ regime to a more rainfall-dominated regime. Previous impact assessments
+ have indicated that this leads, on average, to increasing streamflow
+ by 30% in winter and spring and decreasing streamflow by a similar
+ value in summer. In this study, high-resolution (0.088°) regional
+ climate scenarios conducted with the regional climate model REMO
+ (REgional MOdel) for the Rhine basin are used to force a macroscale
+ hydrological model. These climate scenarios are based on model output
+ from the ECHAM5–Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPI-OM) global
+ climate model, which is in turn forced by three Special Report on
+ Emissions Scenarios (SRES) emission scenarios: A2, A1B, and B1. The
+ Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC; version 4.0.5) is used
+ to examine changes in streamflow at various locations throughout
+ the Rhine basin. Average streamflow, peak flows, low flows, and several
+ water balance terms are evaluated for both the first and second half
+ of the twenty-first century. The results reveal a distinct contrast
+ between those periods. The first half is dominated by increased precipitation,
+ causing increased streamflow throughout the year. During the second
+ half of the century, a streamflow increase in winter/spring and a
+ decrease in summer is found, similar to previous studies. This is
+ caused by 1) temperature and evapotranspiration, which are considerably
+ higher during the second half of the century; 2) decreased precipitation
+ in summer; and 3) an earlier start of the snowmelt season. Magnitudes
+ of peak flows increase during both periods, and the magnitudes of
+ streamflow droughts increase only during the second half of the century.},
+ doi = {10.1175/2009JCLI3066.1},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.03.08}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hurvich1989,
+ author = {Hurvich, C. and Tsai, C.},
+ title = {Regression and time series model selection in small sample},
+ journal = {Biometrika},
+ year = {1989},
+ volume = {76},
+ pages = {297--307},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {A bias correction to the Akaike information criterion, AIC, is derived
+ for regression and autoregressive time series models. The correction
+ is of particular use when the sample size is small, or when the number
+ of fitted parameters is a moderate to large fraction of the sample
+ size. The corrected method, called AICC, is asymptotically efficient
+ if the true model is infinite dimensional. Furthermore, when the
+ true model is of finite dimension, AICC is found to provide better
+ model order choices than any other asymptotically efficient method.
+ Applications to nonstationary autoregressive and mixed autoregressive
+ moving average time series models are also discussed.},
+ doi = {10.1093/biomet/76.2.297},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ refid = {HURVICH1989},
+ timestamp = {2008.11.04}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hojberg2005,
+ author = {H{\o}jberg, A. and Refsgaard, J.},
+ title = {Model uncertainty--parameter uncertainty versus conceptual models},
+ journal = {Water Science \& Technology},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {52},
+ pages = {177--186},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {Uncertainties in model structures have been recognised often to be
+ the main source of uncertainty in predictive model simulations. Despite
+ this knowledge, uncertainty studies are traditionally limited to
+ a single deterministic model and the uncertainty addressed by a parameter
+ uncertainty study. The extent to which a parameter uncertainty study
+ may encompass model structure errors in a groundwater model is studied
+ in a case study. Three groundwater models were constructed on the
+ basis of three different hydrogeological interpretations. Each of
+ the models was calibrated inversely against groundwater heads and
+ streamflows. A parameter uncertainty analysis was carried out for
+ each of the three conceptual models by Monte Carlo simulations. A
+ comparison of the predictive uncertainties for the three conceptual
+ models showed large differences between the uncertainty intervals.
+ Most discrepancies were observed for data types not used in the model
+ calibration. Thus uncertainties in the conceptual models become of
+ increasing importance when predictive simulations consider data types
+ that are extrapolates from the data types used for calibration.},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23},
+ url = {http://www.iwaponline.com/wst/05206/wst052060177.htm}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{ihakagentleman1996,
+ author = {Ihaka, R. and Gentleman, R.},
+ title = {{R}: A Language for Data Analysis and Graphics},
+ journal = {Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics},
+ year = {1996},
+ volume = {5},
+ pages = {299-314},
+ number = {3},
+ tags = {R}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{iizumi+al2011,
+ author = {Iizumi, T. and Nishimori, M. and Dairaku, K. and Adachi, S. and Yokozawa,
+ M.},
+ title = {{Evaluation and intercomparison of downscaled daily precipitation
+ indices over Japan in present-day climate: Strengths and weaknesses
+ of dynamical and bias correction-type statistical downscaling methods}},
+ journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {116},
+ pages = {1--20},
+ number = {D01111},
+ abstract = {In this study, we evaluate the accuracy of four regional climate models
+ (NHRCM, NRAMS, TRAMS, and TWRF) and one bias correction-type statistical
+ model (CDFDM) for daily precipitation indices under the present-day
+ climate (1985–2004) over Japan on a 20 km grid interval. The evaluated
+ indices are (1) mean precipitation, (2) number of days with precipitation
+ ?1 mm/d (corresponds to number of wet days), (3) mean amount per
+ wet day, (4) 90th percentile of daily precipitation, and (5) number
+ of days with precipitation ?90th percentile of daily precipitation.
+ The boundary conditions of the dynamical models and the predictors
+ of the statistical model are given from the single reanalysis data,
+ i.e., JRA25. Both types of models successfully improved the accuracy
+ of the indices relative to the reanalysis data in terms of bias,
+ seasonal cycle, geographical pattern, cumulative distribution function
+ of wet-day amount, and interannual variation pattern. In most aspects,
+ NHRCM is the best model of all indices. Through the intercomparison
+ between the dynamical and statistical models, respective strengths
+ and weaknesses emerged. Briefly, (1) many dynamical models simulate
+ too many wet days with a small amount of precipitation in humid climate
+ zones, such as summer in Japan, relative to the statistical model,
+ unless the cumulus convection scheme improved for such a condition
+ is incorporated; (2) a few dynamical models can derive a better high-order
+ percentile of daily precipitation (e.g., 90th percentile) than the
+ statistical model; (3) both the dynamical and statistical models
+ are still insufficient in the representation of the interannual variation
+ pattern of the number of days with precipitation ?90th percentile
+ of daily precipitation; (4) the statistical model is comparable to
+ the dynamical models in the long-term mean geographical pattern of
+ the indices even on a 20 km grid interval if a dense observation
+ network is applicable; (5) the statistical model is less accurate
+ than the dynamical models in the temporal variation pattern due to
+ the strong dependence of the predictand on the relatively less accurate
+ predictor (daily reanalysis precipitation); and (6) the simple statistical
+ model is less plausible in the physical sense because of the oversimplification
+ of underlying physical processes compared to the dynamical models
+ and more sophisticated statistical models.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2010JD014513},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.02.02}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{ijiri2009,
+ author = {Ijiri, Y. and Saegusa, H. and Sawada, A. and Ono, M. and Watanabe,
+ K. and Karasaki, K. and Doughty, C. and Shimo, M. and Fumimura, K.},
+ title = {Evaluation of uncertainties originating from the different modeling
+ approaches applied to analyze regional groundwater flow in the {Tono}
+ area of {Japan}},
+ journal = {Journal of Contaminant Hydrology},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {103},
+ pages = {168--181},
+ number = {3--4},
+ abstract = {Qualitative evaluation of the effects of uncertainties originating
+ from scenario development, modeling approaches, and parameter values
+ is an important subject in the area of safety assessment for high-level
+ nuclear waste disposal sites. In this study, regional-scale groundwater
+ flow analyses for the Tono area, Japan were conducted using three
+ continuous models designed to handle heterogeneous porous media.
+ We evaluated the simulation results to quantitatively analyze uncertainties
+ originating from modeling approaches. We found that porous media
+ heterogeneity is the main factor which causes uncertainties. We also
+ found that uncertainties originating from modeling approaches greatly
+ depend on the types of hydrological structures and heterogeneity
+ of hydraulic conductivity values in the domain assigned by modelers.
+ Uncertainties originating from modeling approaches decrease as the
+ amount of labor and time spent increase, and iterations between investigation
+ and analyses increases.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jconhyd.2008.10.010},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{Im2007,
+ author = {Im, S. and Brannan, K. and Mostaghimi, S. and Kim, S.},
+ title = {Comparison of {HSPF} and {SWAT} models performance for runoff and
+ sediment yield prediction},
+ journal = {Journal of Environmental Science And Health Part A-Toxic/Hazardous
+ Substances \& Environmental Engineering},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {42},
+ pages = {1561--1570},
+ number = {11},
+ abstract = {A watershed model can be used to better understand the relationship
+ between land use activities and hydrologic/water quality processes
+ that occur within a watershed. The physically based, distributed
+ parameter model ( SWAT) and a conceptual, lumped parameter model
+ (HSPF), were selected and their performance were compared in simulating
+ runoff and sediment yields from the Polecat Creek watershed in Virginia,
+ which is 12,048 ha in size. A monitoring project was conducted in
+ Polecat Creek watershed during the period of October 1994 to June
+ 2000. The observed data ( stream flow and sediment yield) from the
+ monitoring project was used in the calibration/validations of the
+ models. The period of September 1996 to June 2000 was used for the
+ calibration and October 1994 to December 1995 was used for the validation
+ of the models. The outputs from the models were compared to the observed
+ data at several sub-watershed outlets and at the watershed outlet
+ of the Polecat Creek watershed. The results indicated that both models
+ were generally able to simulate stream flow and sediment yields well
+ during both the calibration/ validation periods. For annual and monthly
+ loads, HSPF simulated hydrologic and sediment yield more accurately
+ than SWAT at all monitoring sites within the watershed. The results
+ of this study indicate that both the SWAT and HSPF watershed models
+ performed sufficiently well in the simulation of stream flow and
+ sediment yield with HSPF performing moderately better than SWAT for
+ simulation time-steps greater than a month.},
+ doi = {10.1080/10934520701513456},
+ keywords = {watershed model, HSPF, SWAT, runoff, sediment yield, POLLUTION},
+ pmid = {17849297},
+ tags = {SWAT}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{ines2006,
+ author = {Ines, A. and Hansen, J.},
+ title = {Bias correction of daily {GCM} rainfall for crop simulation studies},
+ journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {138},
+ pages = {44--53},
+ number = {1--4},
+ abstract = {General circulation models (GCMs), used to predict rainfall at a seasonal
+ lead-time, tend to simulate too many rainfall events of too low intensity
+ relative to individual stations within a GCM grid cell. Even if bias
+ in total rainfall is corrected relative to a target location, this
+ distortion of frequency and intensity is expected to adversely affect
+ simulations of crop growth and yield. We present a procedure that
+ calibrates both the frequency and the intensity distribution of daily
+ GCM rainfall relative to a target station, and demonstrate its application
+ to maize yield simulation at a location in semi-arid Kenya. If GCM
+ rainfall frequency is greater than observed frequency for a given
+ month, averaged across years, GCM rainfall frequency is corrected
+ by discarding rainfall events below a calibrated threshold. To correct
+ the intensity distribution, each GCM rainfall amount above the calibrated
+ threshold is mapped from the GCM intensity distribution onto the
+ observed distribution. We used a gamma distribution for observed
+ rainfall intensity, and considered both gamma and empirical distributions
+ for GCM rainfall intensity. At the study location, the proposed correction
+ procedure corrected both the mean and variance of monthly and seasonal
+ GCM rainfall total, frequency and mean intensity. The empirical (GCM)-gamma
+ (observed) transformation overestimated mean intensity slightly.
+ A simple multiplicative shift did a better job of correcting monthly
+ and seasonal rainfall totals, but left substantial frequency and
+ intensity bias. All of the bias correction procedures improved maize
+ yield simulations, but resulted in substantial negative mean bias.
+ This bias appears to be associated with a tendency for the GCM rainfall
+ to be more strongly autocorrelated than observed rainfall, resulting
+ in unrealistically long dry spells during the growing season. Nonlinearity
+ of crop response to the variability of water availability across
+ GCM realizations may also contribute. Averaging simulated yields
+ each year across multiple GCM realizations improved yield predictions.
+ The proposed correction procedure provides an option for using the
+ daily output of dynamic climate prediction models for impact studies
+ in a manner that preserves any useful predictive information about
+ the timing of rainfall within the season. However, its practical
+ utility for yield forecasting at a long lead-time may be limited
+ by the ability of GCMs to simulate rainfall with a realistic time
+ structure.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2006.03.009},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.25}
+}
+
+@MISC{IPCC-DDC2010,
+ author = {{IPCC DDC}},
+ title = {Climate model output: period--averages},
+ howpublished = {\url{http://www.ipcc-data.org/ddc_climscen.html}},
+ year = {2010},
+ note = {[Online; last accessed Feb-2010]},
+ tags = {Climate Models}
+}
+
+@INCOLLECTION{IPCC2007,
+ author = {{IPCC}},
+ title = {Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution
+ of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
+ Panel on Climate Change},
+ publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
+ year = {2007},
+ editor = {Parry, M.L. and Canziani, O.F. and Palutikof, J.P. and {van der Linden},
+ P.J. and Hanson, C.E.},
+ address = {Cambridge},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.06.26}
+}
+
+@INCOLLECTION{IPCC1996,
+ author = {{IPCC}},
+ title = {Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptions and Mitigation of Climate
+ Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses},
+ booktitle = {Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of
+ the {I}ntergovernmental {P}anel on {C}limate {C}hange},
+ publisher = {Cambridge University Press, Cambridge},
+ year = {1996},
+ tags = {Downscaling, IPCC}
+}
+
+@BOOK{isaaks1989,
+ title = {An introduction to {A}pplied {G}eostatistics},
+ publisher = {Oxford University Press},
+ year = {1989},
+ author = {Isaaks, E. and Srivastava, R.},
+ pages = {592},
+ address = {New York},
+ edition = {First},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.03.27}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{jacob+al2007,
+ author = {Jacob, D. and B\"arring, L. and Christensen, O. and Christensen,
+ J. and {de Castro}, M. and D\'equ\'e, M. and Giorgi, F. and Hagemann,
+ S. and Hirschi, M. and Jones, R. and Kjellstr\"om, E. and Lenderink,
+ G. and Rockel, B. and S\'anchez, E. and Sch\"ar, C. and Seneviratne,
+ S. and Somot, S. and Ulden, A. and Hurk, B.},
+ title = {An inter--comparison of regional climate models for {E}urope: {M}odel
+ performance in present--day climate},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {81},
+ pages = {31--52},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {The analysis of possible regional climate changes over Europe as simulated
+ by 10 regional climate models within the context of PRUDENCE requires
+ a careful investigation of possible systematic biases in the models.
+ The purpose of this paper is to identify how the main model systematic
+ biases vary across the different models. Two fundamental aspects
+ of model validation are addressed here: the ability to simulate (1)
+ the long-term (30 or 40 years) mean climate and (2) the inter-annual
+ variability. The analysis concentrates on near-surface air temperature
+ and precipitation over land and focuses mainly on winter and summer.
+ In general, there is a warm bias with respect to the CRU data set
+ in these extreme seasons and a tendency to cold biases in the transition
+ seasons. In winter the typical spread (standard deviation) between
+ the models is 1 K. During summer there is generally a better agreement
+ between observed and simulated values of inter-annual variability
+ although there is a relatively clear signal that the modeled temperature
+ variability is larger than suggested by observations, while precipitation
+ variability is closer to observations. The areas with warm (cold)
+ bias in winter generally exhibit wet (dry) biases, whereas the relationship
+ is the reverse during summer (though much less clear, coupling warm
+ (cold) biases with dry (wet) ones). When comparing the RCMs with
+ their driving GCM, they generally reproduce the large-scale circulation
+ of the GCM though in some cases there are substantial differences
+ between regional biases in surface temperature and precipitation.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10584-006-9213-4},
+ keywords = {PRUCDENCE, bias},
+ tags = {Multimodel - Ensambles}
+}
+
+@INCOLLECTION{jakeman+al1993,
+ author = {Jakeman, A. and Chen, T. and Post, D. and Hornberger, G. and Littlewood,
+ I.},
+ title = {Assessing uncertainties in hydrological response to climate at large
+ scales},
+ booktitle = {Macroscale modelling of the hydrosphere},
+ publisher = {IAHS Press},
+ year = {1993},
+ editor = {W. B. Wilkinson},
+ pages = {37--47},
+ address = {Wallingford, UK},
+ organisation = {IAHS Publication No. 214},
+ tags = {Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{jakemanhornberger1993,
+ author = {Jakeman, A. and Hornberger, G.},
+ title = {How Much Complexity Is Warranted In A Rainfall-Runoff Model},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1993},
+ volume = {29},
+ pages = {2637--2649},
+ number = {8},
+ abstract = {Development of mathematical models relating the precipitation incident
+ upon a catchment to the streamflow emanating from the catchment has
+ been a major focus of surface water hydrology for decades. Generally,
+ values for parameters in such models must be selected so that runoff
+ calculated from the model ''matches'' recorded runoff from some historical
+ period. Despite the fact that the physics governing the path of a
+ drop of water through a catchment to the stream involves complex
+ relationships, evidence indicates that the information content in
+ a rainfall-runoff record is sufficient to support models of only
+ very limited complexity. This begs the question of what limits the
+ observed data place on the allowable complexity of rainfall-runoff
+ models. Time series techniques are applied for estimating transfer
+ functions to determine how many parameters are appropriate to describe
+ the relationship between precipitation and streamflow in the case
+ where data on only precipitation, air temperature, and streamflow
+ are available. Statistics from an ''information matrix'' provide
+ the clues necessary for determining allowable model complexity. Time
+ series models are developed for seven catchments with widely varying
+ physical characteristics in different temperate climatic regimes
+ to demonstrate the method. It is found that after modulating the
+ measured rainfall using a nonlinear loss function, the rainfall-runoff
+ response of all catchments is well represented using a linear model.
+ Also, for all catchments a two-component linear model with four parameters
+ is the model of choice. The two components can be interpreted as
+ defining a ''quick flow'' and ''slow flow'' response of the given
+ catchment. The method therefore provides a statistically rigorous
+ way to separate hydrographs and parameterize their response behavior.
+ The ability to construct reliable transfer function models for describing
+ the rainfall-runoff process offers a new approach to investigate
+ empirically the controls of physical catchment descriptors, land
+ use change, climate change, etc., on the dynamic response of catchments
+ through the extensive analysis of historical data sets.},
+ doi = {10.1029/93WR00877},
+ keywords = {SMALL UPLAND CATCHMENTS, CALIBRATION, IDENTIFICATION},
+ tags = {conceptual model, Philosophical}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{jakeman+al2006,
+ author = {Jakeman, A. and Letcher, R. and Norton, J.},
+ title = {Ten iterative steps in development and evaluation of environmental
+ models},
+ journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {21},
+ pages = {602--614},
+ number = {5},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2006.01.004},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.03.22}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{james1997,
+ author = {James, A. and Oldenburg, C.},
+ title = {Linear and {M}onte {C}arlo analysis for subsurface contaminant transport
+ simulation},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1997},
+ volume = {33},
+ pages = {2495--2508},
+ number = {11},
+ abstract = {Transport simulation can be used to predict subsurface contaminant
+ distributions and the effectiveness of site remediation technologies.
+ Because of the uncertainty inherent in subsurface transport prediction,
+ an integral part of predictive modeling is uncertainty analysis.
+ We have investigated the uncertainty of simulated trichloroethylene
+ (TCE) concentrations due to parameter uncertainty and variation in
+ conceptual model. The transport simulation is performed with T2VOC,
+ a three-dimensional integral finite difference code for three-phase
+ (gas, aqueous, non-aqueous phase liquid), three-component (air, water,
+ volatile organic compound), nonisothermal subsurface flow. Our modeling
+ is based on an actual site and considers a three-dimensional system
+ with a thick vadose zone (25 m) into which 35,000 kg of TCE was disposed
+ of in surface trenches over 10 years. Subsurface transport involves
+ TCE moving in the vadose and saturated zones from the source trench
+ toward a nearby residence and includes the processes of advection,
+ diffusion, and adsorption over extended distances and timescales.
+ Uncertainties in the calculated concentrations due to variance in
+ the major transport parameters are quantified using the inverse modeling
+ code ITOUGH2. ITOUGH2 calculates uncertainty in the T2VOC simulation
+ by both first-order, second-moment (FOSM) and Monte Carlo analyses.
+ Significant uncertainty in simulated TCE concentrations at a site
+ of potential human exposure is observed owing to uncertainty in permeability,
+ porosity, diffusivity, chemical solubility, and adsorption within
+ a single conceptual model. For the case study considered the linear
+ FOSM analysis generally captures the uncertainty range calculated
+ by the more accurate Monte Carlo method. Calculations also show that
+ significant output uncertainty is introduced by conceptual model
+ variation. Because human exposure and health risk depend strongly
+ on contaminant concentrations, risk assessment and remediation selection
+ based on transport simulation is meaningful only if the analysis
+ includes quantitative estimates of transport simulation uncertainty.},
+ doi = {10.1029/97WR01925},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{jansonmiddendorf2005,
+ author = {Janson, S. and Middendorf, M.},
+ title = {A Hierarchical Particle Swarm Optimizer and Its Adaptive Variant},
+ journal = {IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part B: Cybernetics},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {35},
+ pages = {1272--1282},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {A hierarchical version of the particle swarm optimization (PSO) metaheuristic
+ is introduced in this paper. In the new method called H-PSO, the
+ particles are arranged in a dynamic hierarchy that is used to define
+ a neighborhood structure. Depending on the quality of their so-far
+ best-found solution, the particles move up or down the hierarchy.
+ This gives good particles that move up in the hierarchy a larger
+ influence on the swarm. We introduce a variant of H-PSO, in which
+ the shape of the hierarchy is dynamically adapted during the execution
+ of the algorithm. Another variant is to assign different behavior
+ to the individual particles with respect to their level in the hierarchy.
+ H-PSO and its variants are tested on a commonly used set of optimization
+ functions and are compared to PSO using different standard neighborhood
+ schemes.},
+ doi = {10.1109/TSMCB.2005.850530},
+ keywords = {H-PSO method, hierarchical particle swarm optimization, metaheuristic,
+ heuristic programming, particle swarm optimisation, Algorithms, Artificial
+ Intelligence, Computer Simulation, Models, Theoretical},
+ tags = {PSO, Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{janssenheuberger1995,
+ author = {Janssen, P. and Heuberger, P.},
+ title = {Calibration of process-oriented models},
+ journal = {Ecological Modelling},
+ year = {1995},
+ volume = {83},
+ pages = {55--66},
+ number = {1-2},
+ abstract = {Model calibration is a critical phase in the modelling process, and
+ the need for a well-established calibration strategy is obvious.
+ Therefore a systematic approach for model calibration is proposed
+ which is guided by the intended model use, and which is supported
+ by adequate techniques, prior knowledge and expert judgement. The
+ success of calibration will be primarily limited by the nature, amount
+ and quality of the available data, in relation to the complexity
+ of the model; additional limitations are the effectiveness of the
+ applied techniques and the availability of time, man- and computer
+ power, adequate expertise and financial resources. These limitations
+ will often preclude a unique calibrated model. As a consequence,
+ calibration studies should provide information on the non-uniqueness
+ and/or uncertainty which will be left in the model (parameters) after
+ calibration, and this uncertainty should be adequately accounted
+ for in subsequent model applications.},
+ doi = {10.1016/0304-3800(95)00084-9},
+ issn = {0304-3800},
+ keywords = {Calibration, Uncertainty analysis, Validation},
+ mzb_note = {Modelling Water, Carbon and Nutrient Cycles in Forests},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@PHDTHESIS{jensen2003,
+ author = {Jensen, J.},
+ title = {Parameter and uncertainty estimation in groundwater modelling},
+ school = {Department of Civil Engineering. Aalborg University},
+ year = {2003},
+ address = {Denmark},
+ month = {September},
+ note = {Series Paper Nr. 23},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{jeremiah+al2011,
+ author = {Jeremiah, E. and Sisson, S. and Marshall, L. and Mehrotra, R. and
+ Sharma, A.},
+ title = {{Bayesian calibration and uncertainty analysis of hydrological models:
+ A comparison of adaptive Metropolis and sequential Monte Carlo samplers}},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {47},
+ number = {W07547},
+ abstract = {Bayesian statistical inference implemented by stochastic algorithms
+ such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) provides a flexible probabilistic
+ framework for model calibration that accounts for both model and
+ parameter uncertainties. The effectiveness of such Monte Carlo algorithms
+ depends strongly on the user-specified proposal or sampling distribution.
+ In this article, a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approach is used
+ to obtain posterior parameter estimates of a conceptual hydrologic
+ model using data from selected catchments in eastern Australia. The
+ results are evaluated against the popular adaptive Metropolis MCMC
+ sampling approach. Both methods display robustness and convergence,
+ but the SMC displays greater efficiency in exploring the parameter
+ space in catchments where the optimal solutions lie in the tails
+ of the prescribed prior distribution. The SMC method is also able
+ to identify a different set of parameters with an overall improvement
+ in likelihood and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency for selected catchments.
+ As a result of its population-based sampling mechanism, the SMC method
+ is shown to offer improved efficiency in identifying parameter optimization
+ and to provide sampling robustness, in particular in identifying
+ global posterior modes.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2010WR010217},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.09.13}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{jian+al2007a,
+ author = {Jian, T. and Chen, Y. and Xu, {C.-Y.} and Chen, X. and Chen, X. and
+ Singh, V.},
+ title = {Comparison of hydrological impacts of climate change simulated by
+ six hydrological models in the {D}ongjiang {B}asin, {S}outh {C}hina},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {336},
+ pages = {316--333},
+ number = {3--4},
+ abstract = {Large differences in future climatic scenarios found when different
+ global circulation models (GCMs) are employed have been extensively
+ discussed in the scientific literature. However, differences in hydrological
+ responses to the climatic scenarios resulting from the use of different
+ hydrological models have received much less attention. Therefore,
+ comparing and quantifying such differences are of particular importance
+ for the water resources management of a catchment, a region, a continent,
+ or even the globe. This study investigates potential impacts of human-induced
+ climate change on the water availability in the Dongjiang basin,
+ South China, using six monthly water balance models, namely the Thornthwaite--Mather
+ (TM), Vrije Universitet Brussel (VUB), Xinanjiang (XAJ), Guo (GM),
+ WatBal (WM), and Schaake (SM) models. The study utilizes 29-year
+ long records of monthly streamflow and climate in the Dongjiang basin.
+ The capability of the six models in simulating the present climate
+ water balance components is first evaluated and the results of the
+ models in simulating the impact of the postulated climate change
+ are then analyzed and compared. The results of analysis reveal that
+ (1) all six conceptual models have similar capabilities in reproducing
+ historical water balance components; (2) greater differences in the
+ model results occur when the models are used to simulate the hydrological
+ impact of the postulated climate changes; and (3) a model without
+ a threshold in soil moisture simulation results in greater changes
+ in model-predicted soil moisture with respect to alternative climates
+ than the models with a threshold soil moisture. The study provides
+ insights into the plausible changes in basin hydrology due to climate
+ change, that is, it shows that there can be significant implications
+ for the investigation of response strategies for water supply and
+ flood control due to climate change},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.01.010},
+ keywords = {Climate change, Water balance models, Model comparison, Hydrological
+ impacts},
+ tags = {Impacts, Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{jian+al2007b,
+ author = {Jiang, Y. and Hu, T. and Huang, C. and Wu, X.},
+ title = {An improved particle swarm optimization algorithm},
+ journal = {Applied Mathematics and Computation},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {193},
+ pages = {231--239},
+ number = {1},
+ note = {IPSO},
+ abstract = {An improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) is proposed in this
+ paper. In the new algorithm, a population of points sampled randomly
+ from the feasible space. Then the population is partitioned into
+ several sub-swarms, each of which is made to evolve based on particle
+ swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. At periodic stages in the evolution,
+ the entire population is shuffled, and then points are reassigned
+ to sub-swarms to ensure information sharing. This method greatly
+ elevates the ability of exploration and exploitation. Simulations
+ for three benchmark test functions show that IPSO possesses better
+ ability to find the global optimum than that of the standard PSO
+ algorithm. Compared with PSO, IPSO is also applied to identify the
+ hydrologic model. The results show that IPSO remarkably improves
+ the calculation accuracy and is an effective global optimization
+ to calibrate hydrologic},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.amc.2007.03.047},
+ keywords = {Particle swarm optimization, Improved particle swarm optimization,
+ Global optimization, Hydrologic model, Parameters calibration},
+ tags = {Calibration, PSO}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{jiang+al2010,
+ author = {Jiang, Y. and Liu, C. and Huang, C. and Wu, X.},
+ title = {Improved particle swarm algorithm for hydrological parameter optimization},
+ journal = {Applied Mathematics and Computation},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {217},
+ pages = {3207--3215},
+ number = {7},
+ abstract = {In this paper, a new method named MSSE-PSO (master–slave swarms shuffling
+ evolution algorithm based on particle swarm optimization) is proposed.
+ Firstly, a population of points is sampled randomly from the feasible
+ space, and then partitioned into several sub-swarms (one master swarm
+ and other slave swarms). Each slave swarm independently executes
+ PSO or its variants, including the update of particles’ position
+ and velocity. For the master swarm, the particles enhance themselves
+ based on the social knowledge of master swarm and that of slave swarms.
+ At periodic stage in the evolution, the master swarm and the whole
+ slave swarms are forced to mix, and points are then reassigned to
+ several sub-swarms to ensure the share of information. The process
+ is repeated until a user-defined stopping criterion is reached. The
+ tests of numerical simulation and the case study on hydrological
+ model show that MSSE-PSO remarkably improves the accuracy of calibration,
+ reduces the time of computation and enhances the performance of stability.
+ Therefore, it is an effective and efficient global optimization method.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.amc.2010.08.053},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.11.18}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{jiang2006,
+ author = {Jiang, Y. and Woodbury, A.},
+ title = {A full--{B}ayesian approach to the inverse problem for steady--state
+ groundwater flow and heat transport},
+ journal = {Geophysical Journal International},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {167},
+ pages = {1501--1512},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {The full (hierarchal) Bayesian approach proposed by Woodbury & Ulrych
+ and Jiang et al. is extended to the inverse problem for 2-D steady-state
+ groundwater flow and heat transport. A stochastic conceptual framework
+ for the heat flow and groundwater flow is adopted. A perturbation
+ of both the groundwater flow and the advection-conduction heat transport
+ equations leads to a linear formulation between heads, temperature
+ and logarithm transmissivity [denoted as ln (T)]. A Bayesian updating
+ procedure similar to that of Woodbury & Ulrych can then be performed.
+ This new algorithm is examined against a generic example through
+ simulations. The prior mean, variance and integral scales of ln (T)
+ (hyperparameters) are treated as random variables and their pdfs
+ are determined from maximum entropy considerations. It is also assumed
+ that the statistical properties of the noise in the hydraulic head
+ and temperature measurements are also uncertain. Uncertainties in
+ all pertinent hyperparameters are removed by marginalization. It
+ is found that the use of temperature measurements is showed to further
+ improve the ln (T) estimates for the test case in comparison to the
+ updated ln (T) field conditioned on ln (T) and head data; the addition
+ of temperature data without hydraulic head data to the update also
+ aids refinement of the ln (T) field compared to simply interpolating
+ ln (T) data alone these results suggest that temperature measurements
+ are a promising data source for site characterization for heterogeneous
+ aquifer, which can be accomplished through the full-Bayesian methodology.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1365-246X.2006.03145.x},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.10.21}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{jin+al2010,
+ author = {Xiaoli Jin and Chong-Yu Xu and Qi Zhang and V.P. Singh},
+ title = {Parameter and modeling uncertainty simulated by GLUE and a formal
+ Bayesian method for a conceptual hydrological model},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {383},
+ pages = {147--155},
+ number = {3–-4},
+ abstract = {Summary Quantification of uncertainty of hydrological models has attracted
+ much attention in hydrologic research in recent years. Many methods
+ for quantification of uncertainty have been reported in the literature,
+ of which GLUE and formal Bayesian method are the two most popular
+ methods. There have been many discussions in the literature concerning
+ differences between these two methods in theory (mathematics) and
+ results, and this paper focuses on the computational efficiency and
+ differences in their results, but not on philosophies and mathematical
+ rigor that both methods rely on. By assessing parameter and modeling
+ uncertainty of a simple conceptual water balance model (WASMOD) with
+ the use of GLUE and formal Bayesian method, the paper evaluates differences
+ in the results of the two methods and discusses the reasons for these
+ differences. The main findings of the study are that: (1) the parameter
+ posterior distributions generated by the Bayesian method are slightly
+ less scattered than those by the GLUE method; (2) using a higher
+ threshold value (>0.8) GLUE results in very similar estimates
+ of parameter and model uncertainty as does the Bayesian method; and
+ (3) GLUE is sensitive to the threshold value used to select behavioral
+ parameter sets and lower threshold values resulting in a wider uncertainty
+ interval of the posterior distribution of parameters, and a wider
+ confidence interval of model uncertainty. More study is needed to
+ generalize the findings of the present study.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.12.028},
+ issn = {0022-1694},
+ keywords = {Conceptual hydrological model}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{johnstonpilgrim1976,
+ author = {Johnston, P. and Pilgrim, D.},
+ title = {Parameter Optimization for Watershed Models},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1976},
+ volume = {12},
+ pages = {477--486},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {A detailed search for the optimum values of the parameters of the
+ Boughton model is described. The Simplex and Davidon optimization
+ methods were used. Rapid initial reductions in the objective function
+ were readily achieved, but the solutions approached several widely
+ different apparent optima. Alternate use of different optimization
+ methods and numerical and algebraic studies enabled considerable
+ further progress to be made in the search. Much information was obtained
+ on various aspects of parameter optimization. These include interdependence
+ and indifference of parameters, the form of the response surface
+ and the occurrence of discontinuities, the required length of the
+ {`}warm-up{'} period for different types of stores, and the effects
+ of using different types of objective functions. As typical stores
+ were analyzed and the only basic assumption involved was that the
+ data contained errors, the findings should apply to most watershed
+ models},
+ doi = {10.1029/WR012i003p00477},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{jones2000,
+ author = {Jones, R.},
+ title = {Managing uncertainty in climate change projections--{I}ssues for
+ impact assessment--{A}n editorial comment},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2000},
+ volume = {45},
+ pages = {403--419},
+ number = {3--4},
+ abstract = {Climate change projection is the term the IPCC Second Assessment Report
+ (SAR) uses for model estimates of future climate. In that report,
+ projections are presented in two forms: as single model scenarios
+ and as projected ranges of uncertainty. In climate studies, scenarios
+ are commonly regarded as being plausible, but have no further probability
+ attached. Projected ranges of uncertainty can have probabilities
+ attached to the range and within the range, so are more likely to
+ occur than individual scenarios. However, as there is significant
+ remaining uncertainty beyond the projected range, such projections
+ cannot be regarded as forecasts. An appropriate terminology is required
+ to communicate this distinction. The sources of uncertainty in projected
+ ranges of global temperature to 2100 are analysed by Visser et al.
+ (2000), who recommend that ail major sources of uncertainty be incorporated
+ into global warming projections. This will expand its projected range
+ beyond that of the IPCC SAR. Further sources of uncertainties are
+ contained within projections of regional climate. Several strategies
+ that aim to manage that uncertainty are described. Uncertainty can
+ also be managed where it is unquantifiable. An example is rapid climate
+ change, where discarding the term climate 'surprises' in favour of
+ more precise terminology to aid in identifying possible adaptation
+ strategies, is recommended.},
+ doi = {10.1023/A:1005551626280},
+ tags = {Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{jongman+al2012,
+ author = {Brenden Jongman and Philip J. Ward and Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts},
+ title = {Global exposure to river and coastal flooding: Long term trends and
+ changes},
+ journal = {Global Environmental Change},
+ year = {2012},
+ volume = {22},
+ pages = {823--835},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {Flood damage modelling has traditionally been limited to the local,
+ regional or national scale. Recent flood events, population growth
+ and climate change concerns have increased the need for global methods
+ with both spatial and temporal dynamics. This paper presents a first
+ estimation of global economic exposure to both river and coastal
+ flooding for the period 1970–2050, using two different methods for
+ damage assessment. One method is based on population and the second
+ is based on land-use within areas subject to 1/100 year flood events.
+ On the basis of population density and GDP per capita, we estimate
+ a total global exposure to river and coastal flooding of 46 trillion
+ USD in 2010. By 2050, these numbers are projected to increase to
+ 158 trillion USD. Using a land-use based assessment, we estimated
+ a total flood exposure of 27 trillion USD in 2010. For 2050 we simulate
+ a total exposure of 80 trillion USD. The largest absolute exposure
+ changes between 1970 and 2050 are simulated in North America and
+ Asia. In relative terms we project the largest increases in North
+ Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. The models also show systematically
+ larger growth in the population living within hazard zones compared
+ to total population growth. While the methods unveil similar overall
+ trends in flood exposure, there are significant differences in the
+ estimates and geographical distribution. These differences result
+ from inherent model characteristics and the varying relationship
+ between population density and the total urban area in the regions
+ of analysis. We propose further research on the modelling of inundation
+ characteristics and flood protection standards, which can complement
+ the methodologies presented in this paper to enable the development
+ of a global flood risk framework.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.07.004},
+ issn = {0959-3780},
+ keywords = {Flood risk}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kalf2005,
+ author = {Kalf, F. and Woolley, D.},
+ title = {Applicability and methodology of determining sustainable yield in
+ groundwater systems},
+ journal = {Hydrogeology Journal},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {13},
+ pages = {295--312},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {There is currently a need for a review of the definition and methodology
+ of determining sustainable yield. The reasons are: (1) current definitions
+ and concepts are ambiguous and non-physically based so cannot be
+ used for quantitative application, (2) there is a need to eliminate
+ varying interpretations and misinterpretations and provide a sound
+ basis for application, (3) the notion that all groundwater systems
+ either are or can be made to be sustainable is invalid, (4) often
+ there are an excessive number of factors bound up in the definition
+ that are not easily quantifiable, (5) there is often confusion between
+ production facility optimal yield and basin sustainable yield, (6)
+ in many semi-arid and arid environments groundwater systems cannot
+ be sensibly developed using a sustained yield policy particularly
+ where ecological constraints are applied. Derivation of sustainable
+ yield using conservation of mass principles leads to expressions
+ for basin sustainable, partial (non-sustainable) mining and total
+ (non-sustainable) mining yields that can be readily determined using
+ numerical modelling methods and selected on the basis of applied
+ constraints. For some cases there has to be recognition that the
+ groundwater resource is not renewable and its use cannot therefore
+ be sustainable. In these cases, its destiny should be the best equitable
+ use.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10040-004-0401-x},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.12.04}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kannan+al2008,
+ author = {Kannan, N. and Santhi, C. and Arnold, J.},
+ title = {Development of an automated procedure for estimation of the spatial
+ variation of runoff in large river basins},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {359},
+ pages = {1--15},
+ abstract = {The use of distributed parameter models to address water resource
+ management problems has increased in recent years. Calibration is
+ necessary to reduce the uncertainties associated with model input
+ parameters. Manual calibration of a distributed parameter model,
+ is a very time consuming effort. Therefore, more attention is given
+ to automated calibration procedures. This paper describes the development
+ and demonstration of such an automated procedure developed for a
+ national/continental scale assessment study called Conservation Effects
+ Assessment Project (CEAP). The automated procedure is developed to
+ calibrate spatial variation of annual average runoff components for
+ each USGS eight-digit watershed of the United States. It uses nine
+ parameters to calibrate water yield, surface runoff and sub-surface
+ flow respectively. If necessary, the procedure uses a linear interpolation
+ method to arrive at a better value of a model. parameter. When tested
+ for the Upper Mississippi river basin of the United States, the automated
+ calibration procedure gave satisfactory results. Other test results
+ from the procedure are very encouraging and show potential for its
+ use in very large-scale hydrologic modeling studies. (C) 2008 Elsevier
+ B.V. All rights reserved.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.06.001},
+ keywords = {SWAT, calibration, regional modeling, Upper Mississippi, parameterization,
+ runoff, CONTERMINOUS UNITED-STATES, SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS, GLOBAL
+ OPTIMIZATION, HYDROLOGIC-MODELS, WATERSHED MODELS, BASE-FLOW, CALIBRATION,
+ EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, PRECIPITATION, SWAT},
+ tags = {Applications}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kannan+al2007,
+ author = {Kannan, N. and White, S. and Worrall, F. and Whelan, M.},
+ title = {Sensitivity analysis and identification of the best evapotranspiration
+ and runoff options for hydrological modelling in {SWAT}-2000},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {332},
+ pages = {456--466},
+ number = {3-4},
+ abstract = {Distributed models used in hydrological modelling, have many parameters.
+ To get useful results from the model, every parameter is required
+ to have a sensible value. Usually a calibration is undertaken to
+ reduce the uncertainties associated with the estimation of model
+ parameters. To ensure efficient calibration, a sensitivity analysis
+ is conducted to identify the most sensitive parameters. This paper
+ describes simple and efficient approaches for sensitivity analysis,
+ calibration and identification of the best methodology within a modelling
+ framework. For this study, the SWAT-2000 model was used on a small
+ catchment of 141.5 ha in the Unilever Colworth estate, in Bedfordshire,
+ England. Acceptable performance in hydrological modelling, and correct
+ simulation of the processes driving the water balance were essential
+ requirements for subsequent pesticide modelling. SWAT gives various
+ options for both evapotranspiration and runoff modelling. Identification
+ of the best modelling option for these processes is a pre-requisite
+ to achieve these requirements. As a first step, a sensitivity analysis
+ was conducted to identify the sensitive parameters affecting stream
+ flow for subsequent application in stream flow calibration. Hydrological
+ modelling has been carried out for the catchment for the period September
+ 1999 to May 2002 inclusive using both daily and sub-daily rainfall
+ data. The Hargreaves and Penman-Montieth methods of evapotranspiration
+ estimation and the NRCS curve number (CN) and Green and Ampt infiltration
+ methods for runoff estimation techniques were used, in four different
+ combinations, to identify the combination of methodologies that best
+ reproduced the observed data. In addition, as the initial calibration
+ period, starting in September 1999, was substantially wetter than
+ the following corresponding validation period, the calibration and
+ validation periods are interchanged to test the impact of calibration
+ using wet or dry periods. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.08.001},
+ keywords = {SWAT, hydrological modelling, Colworth, curve number (CN), sensitivity,
+ stream flow, GREEN-AMPT, CALIBRATION, PARAMETERS, SIMULATION, SWAT},
+ tags = {Sensitivity Analysis, SWAT}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kashyap1982,
+ author = {Kashyap, R.},
+ title = {Optimal choice of {AR} and {MA} parts in autoregressive moving average
+ models},
+ journal = {IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence},
+ year = {1982},
+ volume = {PAMI-4},
+ pages = {99--104},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {This paper deals with the Bayesian method of choosing the best model
+ for a given one-dimensional series among a finite number of candidates
+ belonging to autoregressive (AR), moving average (MA), ARMA, and
+ other families. The series could be either a sequence of observations
+ in time as in speech applications, or a sequence of pixel intensities
+ of a two-dimensional image. The observation set is not restricted
+ to be Gaussian. We first derive an optimum decision rule for assigning
+ the given observation set to one of the candidate models so as to
+ minimize the average probability of error in the decision. We also
+ derive an optimal decision rule so as to minimize the average value
+ of the loss function. Then we simplify the decision rule when the
+ candidate models are different Gaussian ARMA models of different
+ orders. We discuss the consistency of the optimal decision rule and
+ compare it with the other decision rules in the literature for comparing
+ dynamical models.},
+ file = {:E\:\\rojasro\\My Documents\\articles\\Optimal choice of AR and MA parts in autoregressive moving average models (Kashyap, R. 1984).pdf:PDF},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kass1998,
+ author = {Kass, R. and Carlin, B. and Gelman, A. and Neal, R.},
+ title = {Markov {C}hain {M}onte {C}arlo in practice: {A} roundtable discussion},
+ journal = {The American Statistician},
+ year = {1998},
+ volume = {52},
+ pages = {93--100},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods make possi- ble the use of
+ flexible Bayesian models that would other- wise be computationally
+ infeasible. In recent years, a great variety of such applications
+ have been described in the lit- erature. Applied statisticians who
+ are new to these methods may have several questions and concerns,
+ however: How much effort and expertise are needed to design and use
+ a Markov chain sampler? How much confidence can one have in the answers
+ that MCMC produces? How does the use of MCMC affect the rest of the
+ model-building process? At the Joint Statistical Meetings in August,
+ 1996, a panel of experienced MCMC users discussed these and other
+ issues, as well as various "tricks of the trade." This article is
+ an edited recreation of that discussion. Its purpose is to offer
+ advice and guidance to novice users of MCMC-and to not- so-novice
+ users as well. Topics include building confidence in simulation results,
+ methods for speeding and assessing convergence, estimating standard
+ errors, identification of models for which good MCMC algorithms exist,
+ and the current state of software development.},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ refid = {KASS1998},
+ timestamp = {2008.11.04},
+ url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2685466}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kassraftery1995,
+ author = {Kass, R. and Raftery, A.},
+ title = {Bayes factors},
+ journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
+ year = {1995},
+ volume = {90},
+ pages = {773--795},
+ number = {430},
+ abstract = {In a 1935 paper and in his book Theory of Probability, Jeffreys developed
+ a methodology for quantifying the evidence in favor of a scientific
+ theory. The centerpiece was a number, now called the Bayes factor,
+ which is the posterior odds of the null hypothesis when the prior
+ probability on the null is one-half. Although there has been much
+ discussion of Bayesian hypothesis testing in the context of criticism
+ of P-values, less attention has been given to the Bayes factor as
+ a practical tool of applied statistics. In this article we review
+ and discuss the uses of Bayes factors in the context of five scientific
+ applications in genetics, sports, ecology, sociology, and psychology.
+ We emphasize the following points: * From Jeffreys' Bayesian viewpoint,
+ the purpose of hypothesis testing is to evaluate the evidence in
+ favor of a scientific theory. * Bayes factors offer a way of evaluating
+ evidence in favor of a null hypothesis. * Bayes factors provide a
+ way of incorporating external information into the evaluation of
+ evidence about a hypothesis. * Bayes factors are very general and
+ do not require alternative models to be nested. * Several techniques
+ are available for computing Bayes factors, including asymptotic approximations
+ that are easy to compute using the output from standard packages
+ that maximize likelihoods. * In "nonstandard" statistical models
+ that do not satisfy common regularity conditions, it can be technically
+ simpler to calculate Bayes factors than to derive non-Bayesian significance
+ tests. * The Schwarz criterion (or BIC) gives a rough approximation
+ to the logarithm of the Bayes factor, which is easy to use and does
+ not require evaluation of prior distributions. * When one is interested
+ in estimation or prediction, Bayes factors may be converted to weights
+ to be attached to various models so that a composite estimate or
+ prediction may be obtained that takes account of structural or model
+ uncertainty. * Algorithms have been proposed that allow model uncertainty
+ to be taken into account when the class of models initially considered
+ is very large. * Bayes factors are useful for guiding an evolutionary
+ model-building process. * It is important, and feasible, to assess
+ the sensitivity of conclusions to the prior distributions used.},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23},
+ url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2291091}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kasswasserman1996,
+ author = {Kass, R. and Wasserman, L.},
+ title = {The selection of prior distributions by formal rules},
+ journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
+ year = {1996},
+ volume = {91},
+ pages = {1343--1370},
+ number = {435},
+ abstract = {Subjectivism has become the dominant philosophical foundation for
+ Bayesian inference. Yet in practice, most Bayesian analyses are performed
+ with so-called "noninformative" priors, that is, priors constructed
+ by some formal rule. We review the plethora of techniques for constructing
+ such priors and discuss some of the practical and philosophical issues
+ that arise when they are used. We give special emphasis to Jeffreys's
+ rules and discuss the evolution of his viewpoint about the interpretation
+ of priors, away from unique representation of ignorance toward the
+ notion that they should be chosen by convention. We conclude that
+ the problems raised by the research on priors chosen by formal rules
+ are serious and may not be dismissed lightly: When sample sizes are
+ small (relative to the number of parameters being estimated), it
+ is dangerous to put faith in any "default" solution; but when asymptotics
+ take over, Jeffreys's rules and their variants remain reasonable
+ choices. We also provide an annotated bibliography.},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23},
+ url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2291752}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{katz2010,
+ author = {Katz, R.},
+ title = {Statistics of extremes in climate change},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {100},
+ pages = {71--76},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {This editorial essay concerns the use (or lack thereof) of the statistics
+ of extremes in climate change research. So far, the statistical theory
+ of extreme values has been primarily applied to climate under the
+ assumption of stationarity. How this theory can be applied in the
+ context of climate change, including implications for the analysis
+ of the economic impacts of extremes, is described. Future research
+ challenges include the statistical modeling of complex extreme events,
+ such as heat waves, and taking into account spatial dependence in
+ the statistical modeling of extremes for fields of climate observations
+ or of numerical model output. Addressing these challenges will require
+ increased collaboration between climate scientists and statisticians.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10584-010-9834-5},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.07.12}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{katz+al2002,
+ author = {Katz, R. and Parlange, M. and Naveau, P.},
+ title = {Statistics of extremes in hydrology},
+ journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {25},
+ pages = {1287--1304},
+ number = {8--12},
+ abstract = {The statistics of extremes have played an important role in engineering
+ practice for water resources design and management. How recent developments
+ in the statistical theory of extreme values can be applied to improve
+ the rigor of hydrologic applications and to make such analyses more
+ physically meaningful is the central theme of this paper. Such methodological
+ developments primarily relate to maximum likelihood estimation in
+ the presence of covariates, in combination with either the block
+ maxima or peaks over threshold approaches. Topics that are treated
+ include trends in hydrologic extremes, with the anticipated intensification
+ of the hydrologic cycle as part of global climate change. In an attempt
+ to link downscaling (i.e., relating large-scale atmosphere–ocean
+ circulation to smaller-scale hydrologic variables) with the statistics
+ of extremes, statistical downscaling of hydrologic extremes is considered.
+ Future challenges are reviewed, such as the development of more rigorous
+ statistical methodology for regional analysis of extremes, as well
+ as the extension of Bayesian methods to more fully quantify uncertainty
+ in extremal estimation. Examples include precipitation and streamflow
+ extremes, as well as economic damage associated with such extreme
+ events, with consideration of trends and dependence on patterns in
+ atmosphere–ocean circulation (e.g., El Niño phenomenon).},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0309-1708(02)00056-8},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.11.22}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kavetski2007,
+ author = {Kavetski, D. and Kuczera, G.},
+ title = {Model smoothing strategies to remove microscale discontinuities and
+ spurious secondary optima in objective functions in hydrological
+ calibration},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {43},
+ pages = {W03411},
+ abstract = {Environmental processes frequently exhibit threshold-type behavior,
+ e.g., the initiation of fluxes such as snowmelt, recharge, and quick
+ flow. Incorporating such thresholds into hydrological models introduces
+ discontinuities into the objective functions used in model calibration,
+ making parameter estimation unnecessarily more difficult. Moreover,
+ this study shows that model thresholds can produce spurious multimodality
+ in least squares objective functions even if the underlying model
+ is near linear in its parameters. In contrast, smoothing the model
+ with respect to its parameters and inputs yields differentiable objective
+ functions and, in some cases, can also improve its macroscale characteristics
+ by removing spurious secondary optima. This simplifies model calibration
+ and sensitivity analysis by reducing the complexity of objective
+ functions and permitting the use of powerful derivative-based analysis
+ methods such as Newton-type optimization and Hessian-based uncertainty
+ assessment. This paper details smoothing strategies for several classes
+ of thresholds and discontinuities commonly found in hydrological
+ models, including step and angle discontinuities in the constitutive
+ functions and flux constraints arising from conservation laws in
+ the governing differential equations. The smoothing algorithms and
+ their parameters are selected to ensure infinite differentiability
+ of the model and its objective functions while preserving the macroscale
+ behavior of the original governing equations. The improvements in
+ the structure of the model and its objective functions are illustrated
+ empirically for a degree-day-based snow model. The smoothing techniques
+ are general and can be applied to other models with thresholds.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2006WR005195},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.02.18}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kavetski+al2006a,
+ author = {Kavetski, D. and Kuczera, G. and Franks, S.},
+ title = {{Bayesian analysis of input uncertainty in hydrological modeling:
+ 1. Theory}},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {42},
+ number = {W03407},
+ abstract = {Parameter estimation in rainfall-runoff models is affected by uncertainties
+ in the measured input/output data (typically, rainfall and runoff,
+ respectively), as well as model error. Despite advances in data collection
+ and model construction, we expect input uncertainty to be particularly
+ significant (because of the high spatial and temporal variability
+ of precipitation) and to remain considerable in the foreseeable future.
+ Ignoring this uncertainty compromises hydrological modeling, potentially
+ yielding biased and misleading results. This paper develops a Bayesian
+ total error analysis methodology for hydrological models that allows
+ (indeed, requires) the modeler to directly and transparently incorporate,
+ test, and refine existing understanding of all sources of data uncertainty
+ in a specific application, including both rainfall and runoff uncertainties.
+ The methodology employs additional (latent) variables to filter out
+ the input corruption given the model hypothesis and the observed
+ data. In this study, the input uncertainty is assumed to be multiplicative
+ Gaussian and independent for each storm, but the general framework
+ allows alternative uncertainty models. Several ways of incorporating
+ vague prior knowledge of input corruption are discussed, contrasting
+ Gaussian and inverse gamma assumptions; the latter method avoids
+ degeneracies in the objective function. Although the general methodology
+ is computationally intensive because of the additional latent variables,
+ a range of modern numerical methods, particularly Monte Carlo analysis
+ combined with fast Newton-type optimization methods and Hessian-based
+ covariance analysis, can be employed to obtain practical solutions.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2005WR004368},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.09.13}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kavetski+al2006b,
+ author = {Kavetski, D. and Kuczera, G. and Franks, S.},
+ title = {{Bayesian analysis of input uncertainty in hydrological modeling:
+ 2}},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {42},
+ number = {W03408},
+ abstract = {The Bayesian total error analysis (BATEA) methodology directly addresses
+ both input and output errors in hydrological modeling, requiring
+ the modeler to make explicit, rather than implicit, assumptions about
+ the likely extent of data uncertainty. This study considers a BATEA
+ assessment of two North American catchments: (1) French Broad River
+ and (2) Potomac basins. It assesses the performance of the conceptual
+ Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model with and without accounting
+ for input (precipitation) uncertainty. The results show the considerable
+ effects of precipitation errors on the predicted hydrographs (especially
+ the prediction limits) and on the calibrated parameters. In addition,
+ the performance of BATEA in the presence of severe model errors is
+ analyzed. While BATEA allows a very direct treatment of input uncertainty
+ and yields some limited insight into model errors, it requires the
+ specification of valid error models, which are currently poorly understood
+ and require further work. Moreover, it leads to computationally challenging
+ highly dimensional problems. For some types of models, including
+ the VIC implemented using robust numerical methods, the computational
+ cost of BATEA can be reduced using Newton-type methods.},
+ doi = {1029/2005WR004376},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.09.13}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kavetski+al2006c,
+ author = {Kavetski, D. and Kuczera, G. and Franks, S.},
+ title = {Calibration of conceptual hydrological models revisited: 1. Overcoming
+ numerical artefacts},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {320},
+ pages = {173--186},
+ number = {1-2},
+ abstract = {Conceptual hydrological modelling has traditionally been plagued by
+ calibration difficulties due to the roughness and complex shape of
+ objective functions. These problems led to the abandonment of powerful
+ classical analysis methods (Newton-type optimisation, derivative-based
+ uncertainty analysis) and have motivated extensive research into
+ nonsmooth optimisation and even new parameter estimation philosophies
+ (e.g. GLUE). This paper shows that some of these complexities are
+ not inherent features of hydrological models, but are numerical artefacts
+ due to model thresholds and poorly selected time stepping schemes.
+ We present a numerically robust methodology for implementing conceptual
+ models, including rainfall-runoff and snow models, that ensures micro-scale
+ smoothness of objective functions and guarantees macro-scale model
+ stability. The methodology employs robust and unconditionally stable
+ time integration of the models, complemented by careful threshold
+ smoothing. A case study demonstrates the benefits of these techniques.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.07.012},
+ keywords = {Rainfall-runoff models, SPM, Degree-day snow model, Parameter estimation,
+ Numerical artefacts, Model smoothing, Model thresholds, Model stability,
+ Implicit time stepping},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@UNPUBLISHED{kay+al2006b,
+ author = {Kay, A. and Bell, V. and Davies, H.},
+ title = {Model Quality and Uncertainty for Climate Change Impact. Centre for
+ Ecology and Hydrology},
+ note = {NERC/Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford},
+ year = {2006},
+ tags = {Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kay+al2009,
+ author = {Kay, A. and Davies, H. and Bell, V. and Jones, R.},
+ title = {Comparison of uncertainty sources for climate change impacts: {F}lood
+ frequency in {E}ngland},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {92},
+ pages = {41--63},
+ number = {1--2},
+ abstract = {This paper investigates the uncertainty in the impact of climate change
+ on flood frequency in England, through the use of continuous simulation
+ of river flows. Six different sources of uncertainty are discussed:
+ future greenhouse gas emissions; Global Climate Model (GCM) structure;
+ downscaling from GCMs (including Regional Climate Model structure);
+ hydrological model structure; hydrological model parameters and the
+ internal variability of the climate system (sampled by applying different
+ GCM initial conditions). These sources of uncertainty are demonstrated
+ (separately) for two example catchments in England, by propagation
+ through to flood frequency impact. The results suggest that uncertainty
+ from GCM structure is by far the largest source of uncertainty. However,
+ this is due to the extremely large increases in winter rainfall predicted
+ by one of the five GCMs used. Other sources of uncertainty become
+ more significant if the results from this GCM are omitted, although
+ uncertainty from sources relating to modelling of the future climate
+ is generally still larger than that relating to emissions or hydrological
+ modelling. It is also shown that understanding current and future
+ natural variability is critical in assessing the importance of climate
+ change impacts on hydrology},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10584-008-9471-4},
+ tags = {Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kay+al2006a,
+ author = {Kay, A. and Jones, R. and Reynard, N.},
+ title = {R{CM rainfall for UK flood frequency estimation. II. Climate change
+ results}},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {318},
+ pages = {163--172},
+ number = {1--4},
+ abstract = {The first part of this two-part paper demonstrated the feasibility
+ of the direct use of data from a high resolution (25 km) Regional
+ Climate Model (RCM) to provide inputs for a rainfall-runoff model,
+ in order to obtain estimates of flood frequency. This paper uses
+ data from a climate change experiment with the same RCM (HadRM3H)
+ to provide estimates of change in flood frequency between the 1970s
+ and 2080s, for 15 catchments across Great Britain. This experiment
+ is a rerun, at twice the horizontal resolution, of one of those used
+ by the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) in the construction of
+ its UKCIP02 climate change scenarios for the UK. It thus allows an
+ exploration of the implication of these scenarios using a resolution
+ more suited to the detailed hydrological application addressed in
+ this paper. Despite decreases in annual average rainfall in all but
+ one catchment, eight show an increase in flood frequency at most
+ return periods whereas two show substantial decreases. As part I
+ of this paper showed a distinct positive correlation between errors
+ in annual rainfall and errors in flood frequency, the fact that flood
+ frequency can increase despite an overall decrease in rainfall implies
+ a marked change in the distribution of rainfall, either in terms
+ of the probability of rainfall events and/or its seasonal cycle.
+ Decreases in flood peaks are shown for a number of the catchments
+ in the south and east of England, despite an increase in winter mean
+ and extreme rainfall. Increased summer and autumn soil moisture deficits
+ are thought to be the reason for this. Other catchments, further
+ north or west, show an increase in flood peaks, in some cases of
+ over 50% at the 50-year return period. Care needs to be taken when
+ interpreting these results, as they are based on a single RCM experiment
+ (using driving data from one GCM under a single emissions scenario).
+ Other RCM experiments may give quite different results, and ensemble
+ runs would ideally be required to limit sample error. (c) 2005 Elsevier
+ Ltd All rights reserved.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.06.013},
+ keywords = {regional climate models, flood frequency, rainfall-runoff model, spatial
+ generalisation, CHANGE IMPACTS, RIVERS, BASIN},
+ tags = {Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kendon+al2010,
+ author = {Kendon, E. and Jones, R. and Kjellstr\"om, E. and Murphy, J.},
+ title = {{Using and designing GCM–RCM ensemble regional climate projections}},
+ journal = {Journal of Climate},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {23},
+ pages = {6485--6503},
+ number = {24},
+ abstract = {Multimodel ensembles, whereby different global climate models (GCMs)
+ and regional climate models (RCMs) are combined, have been widely
+ used to explore uncertainties in regional climate projections. In
+ this study, the extent to which information can be enhanced from
+ sparsely filled GCM–RCM ensemble matrices and the way in which simulations
+ should be prioritized to sample uncertainties most effectively are
+ examined. A simple scaling technique, whereby the local climate response
+ in an RCM is predicted from the large-scale change in the GCM, is
+ found to often show skill in estimating local changes for missing
+ GCM–RCM combinations. In particular, scaling shows skill for precipitation
+ indices (including mean, variance, and extremes) across Europe in
+ winter and mean and extreme temperature in summer and winter, except
+ for hot extremes over central/northern Europe in summer. However,
+ internal variability significantly impacts the ability to determine
+ scaling skill for precipitation indices, with a three-member ensemble
+ found to be insufficient for identifying robust local scaling relationships
+ in many cases. This study suggests that, given limited computer resources,
+ ensembles should be designed to prioritize the sampling of GCM uncertainty,
+ using a reduced set of RCMs. Exceptions are found over the Alps and
+ northeastern Europe in winter and central Europe in summer, where
+ sampling multiple RCMs may be equally or more important for capturing
+ uncertainty in local temperature or precipitation change. This reflects
+ the significant role of local processes in these regions. Also, to
+ determine the ensemble strategy in some cases, notably precipitation
+ extremes in summer, better sampling of internal variability is needed.},
+ doi = {10.1175/2010JCLI3502.1},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.04.29}
+}
+
+@INCOLLECTION{kennedy2006,
+ author = {Kennedy, J.},
+ title = {Swarm Intelligence},
+ booktitle = {Handbook of Nature-Inspired and Innovative Computing},
+ publisher = {Springer US},
+ year = {2006},
+ editor = {Albert Zomaya},
+ pages = {187--219},
+ doi = {10.1007/0-387-27705-6\_6},
+ isbn = {978-0-387-27705-9},
+ tags = {PSO}
+}
+
+@INPROCEEDINGS{kennedy1999,
+ author = {Kennedy, J.},
+ title = {Small worlds and mega-minds: effects of neighborhood topology onparticle
+ swarm performance},
+ booktitle = {Proceedings of the 1999 Congress on Evolutionary Computation, 1999},
+ year = {1999},
+ volume = {3},
+ pages = {3 vol. (xxxvii+2348)},
+ doi = {10.1109/CEC.1999.785509},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.10.20}
+}
+
+@INPROCEEDINGS{kennedyeberhart1995,
+ author = {Kennedy, J. and Eberhart, R.},
+ title = {Particle swarm optimization},
+ booktitle = {Proceedings IEEE International Conference on Neural Networks, 1995},
+ year = {1995},
+ volume = {4},
+ pages = {1942--1948},
+ month = {nov/dec},
+ abstract = {A concept for the optimization of nonlinear functions using particle
+ swarm methodology is introduced. The evolution of several paradigms
+ is outlined, and an implementation of one of the paradigms is discussed.
+ Benchmark testing of the paradigm is described, and applications,
+ including nonlinear function optimization and neural network training,
+ are proposed. The relationships between particle swarm optimization
+ and both artificial life and genetic algorithms are described},
+ doi = {10.1109/ICNN.1995.488968},
+ keywords = {artificial life, evolution, genetic algorithms, multidimensional search,
+ neural network, nonlinear functions, optimization, particle swarm,
+ simulation, social metaphor, artificial intelligence, genetic algorithms,
+ neural nets, search problems, simulation},
+ tags = {Calibration, PSO}
+}
+
+@INPROCEEDINGS{kennedymendes2003,
+ author = {Kennedy, J. and Mendes, R.},
+ title = {Neighborhood topologies in fully-informed and best-of-neighborhood
+ particle swarms},
+ booktitle = {Proceedings of the 2003 IEEE International Workshop on Soft Computing
+ in Industrial Applications, 2003. SMCia/03.},
+ year = {2003},
+ pages = {45-50},
+ abstract = {We vary the way an individual in the particle swarm interacts with
+ its neighbors. Performance depends on population topology as well
+ as algorithm version.},
+ doi = {10.1109/SMCIA.2003.1231342},
+ keywords = {FIPS, topology, von Neumann},
+ tags = {PSO}
+}
+
+@INPROCEEDINGS{kennedymendes2002,
+ author = {Kennedy, J. and Mendes, R.},
+ title = {Population structure and particle swarm performance},
+ booktitle = {Proceedings of the 2002 Congress on Evolutionary Computation, CEC
+ '02},
+ year = {2002},
+ pages = {1671--1676},
+ month = {May},
+ abstract = {The effects of various population topologies on the particle swarm
+ algorithm were systematically investigated. Random graphs were generated
+ to specifications, and their performance on several criteria was
+ compared. What makes a good population structure? We discovered that
+ previous assumptions may not have been correct.},
+ doi = {10.1109/CEC.2002.1004493},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.10.14}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kerr2002,
+ author = {Kerr, R.},
+ title = {Climate change--{R}educing uncertainties of global warming},
+ journal = {Science},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {295},
+ pages = {29--+},
+ number = {5552},
+ abstract = {Climate researchers have so far been unable to say how bad things
+ could get as the world continues to warm. Now in this issue of Science
+ (p. 113), a group of researchers report plugging different combinations
+ of values for fundamental properties of the climate system--such
+ as its sensitivity to the nudge that humans are giving it--into a
+ computer model and looking to see how well the model's output matched
+ long-term observations. The results are mixed.},
+ doi = {10.1126/science.295.5552.29a},
+ tags = {Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{khu+al2008,
+ author = {Khu,{S-T} and Madsden, H. and {di Pierro}, F.},
+ title = {Incorporating multiple observations for distributed hydrologic model
+ calibration: {A}n approach using a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm
+ and clustering},
+ journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {31},
+ pages = {1387--1398},
+ number = {10},
+ abstract = {The use of distributed data for model calibration is becoming more
+ popular in the advent of the availability of spatially distributed
+ observations. Hydrological model calibration has traditionally been
+ carried out using single objective optimisation and only recently
+ has been extended to a multi-objective optimisation domain. By formulating
+ the calibration problem with several objectives, each objective relating
+ to a set of observations, the parameter sets can be constrained more
+ effectively. However, many previous multi-objective calibration studies
+ do not consider individual observations or catchment responses separately,
+ but instead utilises some form of aggregation of objectives. This
+ paper proposes a multi-objective calibration approach that can efficiently
+ handle many objectives using both clustering and preference ordered
+ ranking. The algorithm is applied to calibrate the MIKE SHE distributed
+ hydrologic model and tested on the Karup catchment in Denmark. The
+ results indicate that the preferred solutions selected using the
+ proposed algorithm are good compromise solutions and the parameter
+ values are well defined. Clustering with Kohonen mapping was able
+ to reduce the number of objective functions from 18 to 5. Calibration
+ using the standard deviation of groundwater level residuals enabled
+ us to identify a group of wells that may not be simulated properly,
+ thus highlighting potential problems with the model parameterisation.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.advwatres.2008.07.011},
+ keywords = {Calibration, Distributed modelling, Multi-objective, Self-organising
+ map (SOM), Multiple observations, Evolutionary algorithms, Groundwater},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kilsby+al2007,
+ author = {Kilsby, C. and Tellier, S. and Fowler, H. and Howels, T.},
+ title = {Hydrological impacts of climate change on the {Tejo} and {Guadiana}
+ {Rivers}},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {11},
+ pages = {1175--1189},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {A distributed daily rainfall–runoff model is applied to the Tejo and
+ Guadiana river basins in Spain and Portugal to simulate the effects
+ of climate change on runoff production, river flows and water resource
+ availability with results aggregated to the monthly level. The model
+ is calibrated, validated and then used for a series of climate change
+ impact assessments for the period 2070–2100. Future scenarios are
+ derived from the HadRM3H regional climate model (RCM) using two techniques:
+ firstly a bias-corrected RCM output, with monthly mean correction
+ factors calculated from observed rainfall records; and, secondly,
+ a circulation-pattern-based stochastic rainfall model. Major reductions
+ in rainfall and streamflow are projected throughout the year; these
+ results differ from those for previous studies where winter increases
+ are projected. Despite uncertainties in the representation of heavily
+ managed river systems, the projected impacts are serious and pose
+ major threats to the maintenance of bipartite water treaties between
+ Spain and Portugal and the supply of water to urban and rural regions
+ of Portugal.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-11-1175-2007},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.07.30}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kim+al2007,
+ author = {Kim, {S-M} and Benham, B. and Brannan, K. and Zeckoski, R. and Doherty,
+ J.},
+ title = {Comparison of hydrologic calibration of {HSPF} using automatic and
+ manual methods},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {43},
+ pages = {W01402},
+ abstract = {The automatic calibration software Parameter Estimation (PEST) was
+ used in the hydrologic calibration of Hydrological Simulation Program{--}Fortran
+ (HSPF), and the results were compared with a manual calibration assisted
+ by the Expert System for the Calibration of HSPF (HSPEXP). In this
+ study, multiobjective functions based on the HSPEXP model performance
+ criteria were developed for use in PEST, which allowed for the comparison
+ of the calibration results of the two methods. The calibrated results
+ of both methods were compared in terms of HSPEXP model performance
+ criteria, goodness-of-fit measures (R 2, E, and RMSE), and base flow
+ index. The automatic calibration results satisfied most of the HSPEXP
+ model performance criteria and performed better with respect to R
+ 2, E, RMSE, and base flow index than manual calibration results.
+ The results of the comparison with the manual calibration suggest
+ that the automatic method using PEST may be a suitable alternative
+ to manual method assisted by HSPEXP for calibration of hydrologic
+ parameters for HSPF. However, further research of the weights used
+ in the objective functions is necessary to provide guidance when
+ applying PEST to surface water modeling.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2006WR004883},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{king1994,
+ author = {King, D. and Daroussin, J. and Tavernier, R.},
+ title = {{Development of a soil geographic database from the Soil Map of the
+ European Communities}},
+ journal = {Catena},
+ year = {1994},
+ volume = {21},
+ pages = {37--56},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {Questions on land use and soil conservation require increasingly accurate
+ information on soil properties and their geographical location. Soil
+ maps have helped to answer them thus helping in decision making.
+ Information presented on soil maps are now managed by computer. This
+ is the case for the Soil Map of European Communities (EC) at a scale
+ of 1 : 1 000 000. Computerization of soil maps is often limited to
+ soil boundaries and to the few descriptive items on the paper themselves.
+ Much of the original survey is lost either during mapping or because
+ it is published separately in explanatory notes or legends. This
+ was also the case for the EC Soil Map. Many scientific publications
+ and draft documents were used to make the original paper map, but
+ were greatly condensed and simplified. The first version of the EC
+ soil database is an exact copy of the paper map, thus having the
+ same deficiencies. Using Geographical Information System technology,
+ an efficient data structure has to be developed to take into account
+ efficiently the internal organization of the soil cover. Such a structure
+ should match conceptually the soil scientist review of spatial soil
+ organization at a given scale within a computerized model. As a first
+ step towards such a “Soil Spatial Organization Model†the material
+ available for the compilation of the EC Soil Map is analysed. A logical
+ data structure to receive a posteriori these informations is proposed
+ and the database's improvement in terms of quantity as well as quality
+ is demonstrated.},
+ doi = {10.1016/0341-8162(94)90030-2},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.05.12}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kirchner2006,
+ author = {Kirchner, J.},
+ title = {Getting the right answers for the right reasons: {L}inking measurements,
+ analyses, and models to advance the science of hydrology},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {42},
+ pages = {W03S04},
+ abstract = {The science of hydrology is on the threshold of major advances, driven
+ by new hydrologic measurements, new methods for analyzing hydrologic
+ data, and new approaches to modeling hydrologic systems. Here I suggest
+ several promising directions forward, including (1) designing new
+ data networks, field observations, and field experiments, with explicit
+ recognition of the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of hydrologic
+ processes, (2) replacing linear, additive “black box†models with
+ “gray box†approaches that better capture the nonlinear and non-additive
+ character of hydrologic systems, (3) developing physically based
+ governing equations for hydrologic behavior at the catchment or hillslope
+ scale, recognizing that they may look different from the equations
+ that describe the small-scale physics, (4) developing models that
+ are minimally parameterized and therefore stand some chance of failing
+ the tests that they are subjected to, and (5) developing ways to
+ test models more comprehensively and incisively. I argue that scientific
+ progress will mostly be achieved through the collision of theory
+ and data, rather than through increasingly elaborate and parameter-rich
+ models that may succeed as mathematical marionettes, dancing to match
+ the calibration data even if their underlying premises are unrealistic.
+ Thus advancing the science of hydrology will require not only developing
+ theories that get the right answers but also testing whether they
+ get the right answers for the right reasons.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2005WR004362},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.02.18}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kirckpatrick+al1983,
+ author = {Kirckpatrick, S. and Gelatt, C. and Vecchi, M.},
+ title = {Optimization by simulated annealing},
+ journal = {Science},
+ year = {1983},
+ volume = {220},
+ pages = {671--680},
+ number = {4598},
+ abstract = {There is a deep and useful connection between statistical mechanics
+ (the behavior of systems with many degrees of freedom in thermal
+ equilibrium at a finite temperature) and multivariate or combinatorial
+ optimization (finding the minimum of a given function depending on
+ many parameters). A detailed analogy with annealing in solids provides
+ a framework for optimization of the properties of very large and
+ complex systems. This connection to statistical mechanics exposes
+ new information and provides an unfamiliar perspective on traditional
+ optimization problems and methods.},
+ doi = {10.1126/science.220.4598.671},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.10.11}
+}
+
+@INCOLLECTION{kitanidis1988,
+ author = {Kitanidis, P.},
+ title = {The concept of predictive probability and a simple test for geostatistical
+ model validation},
+ booktitle = {Consequences of spatial variability in aquifer properties and data
+ limitations for groundwater modelling practice},
+ publisher = {International Association of Hydrological Sciences},
+ year = {1988},
+ editor = {Peck, A. and Gorelick, S. and {de Marsily}, G. and Foster, S. and
+ Kovalevsky, V.},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.09.14}
+}
+
+@BOOK{kitanidis1997,
+ title = {Introduction to geostatistics--{A}pplications in hydrogeology},
+ publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
+ year = {1997},
+ author = {Kitanidis, P.},
+ pages = {272},
+ address = {New York},
+ edition = {First},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kitanidis1995,
+ author = {Kitanidis, P.},
+ title = {Quasi--linear geostatistical theory for inversing},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1995},
+ volume = {31},
+ pages = {2411--2419},
+ number = {10},
+ abstract = {A quasi-linear theory is presented for the geostatistical solution
+ to the inverse problem. The archetypal problem is to estimate the
+ log transmissivity function from observations of head and log transmissivity
+ at selected locations. The unknown is parameterized as a realization
+ of a random field, and the estimation problem is solved in two phases:
+ structural analysis, where the random field is characterized, followed
+ by estimation of the log transmissivity conditional on all observations.
+ The proposed method generalizes the linear approach of Kitanidis
+ and Vomvoris (1983). The generalized method is superior to the linear
+ method in cases of large contrast in formation properties but informative
+ measurements, i.e., there are enough observations that the variance
+ of estimation error of the log transmissivity is small. The methodology
+ deals rigorously with unknown drift coefficients and yields estimates
+ of covariance parameters that are unbiased and grid independent.
+ The applicability of the methodology is demonstrated through an example
+ that includes structural analysis, determination of best estimates,
+ and conditional simulations.},
+ doi = {10.1029/95WR01945},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.09.14}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kitanidisbras1980a,
+ author = {Kitanidis, P. and Bras, R.},
+ title = {Real-Time Forecasting with a Conceptual Hydrologic Model 1. Analysis
+ of Uncertainty},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1980},
+ volume = {16},
+ pages = {1025--1033},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {The optimal control of watershed systems requires accurate real-time
+ short-term forecasts of river flows. For the first time, this paper
+ formulates a large, nonlinear conceptual model (the National Weather
+ Service catchment model) in a mode amenable to analysis of uncertainty
+ and the utilization of real-time information (measurements, forecasts,
+ guesses) to update system states and improve streamflow predictions.
+ The proposed methodology is based on the state space formulation
+ of the equations describing the hydrologic model and the assumption
+ of sources of uncertainty in the data and in the model structure.
+ The first two moments of random variables are estimated in a computationally
+ efficient way using on-line linear estimation techniques. Linearization
+ of functional relationships is performed with the uncommon but powerful
+ multiple-input describing function technique for the most strongly
+ nonlinear responses and Taylor expansion for the rest. The linear
+ feedback rule developed is based on the Kaiman filter},
+ doi = {10.1029/WR016i006p01025},
+ tags = {Calibration, Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{klitanidisbras1980,
+ author = {Kitanidis, P. and Bras, R.},
+ title = {Real-Time Forecasting with a Conceptual Hydrologic Model 2. Applications
+ and Results},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1980},
+ volume = {16},
+ pages = {1034--1044},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {The results from an application of a conceptual hydrologic model,
+ combined with filtering and statistical estimation methods, to real-time
+ forecasting of river discharges are very encouraging. The use of
+ feedback significantly improves the overall forecasting capability
+ of the model even when the model and input error statistics are not
+ perfectly known. Identification of these statistics through adaptive
+ filtering techniques is practical and further improves the performance
+ of the model. Comparison with a simple linear adaptive {`}black box{'}
+ model is very favorable for the conceptual hydrologic model, especially
+ for forecast lead times comparably to the response time of the catchment.
+ The results emphasize the importance of using a realistic model of
+ uncertainty accounting for the nonstationarity in the rainfall-runoff
+ process.},
+ bibkey = {persistence index, coefficient of persistence, conceptual hydrologic
+ modelling},
+ doi = {10.1029/WR016i004p00740},
+ tags = {Calibration, Goodness-of-Fit}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kitanidis1983,
+ author = {Kitanidis, P. and Vomvoris, E.},
+ title = {A geostatistical approach to the inverse problem in groundwater modeling
+ (steady state) and one--dimensional simulations},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1983},
+ volume = {19},
+ pages = {677-690},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {The problem of estimating Hydrogeologic parameters, in particular,
+ permeability, from input-output measurements is reexamined in a geostatistical
+ framework. The field of the unknown parameters is represented as
+ a ‘random field’ and the estimation procedure consists of two main
+ steps. First, the structure of the parameter field is identified,
+ i.e., mathematical representations of the variogram and the trend
+ are selected and their parameters are established by using all available
+ information, including measurements of hydraulic head and permeability.
+ Second, linear estimation theory is applied to provide minimum variance
+ and unbiased point estimates of hydrogeologic parameters (‘kriging’).
+ Structure identification is achieved iteratively in three substeps
+ : structure selection, maximum likelihood estimation, and model validation
+ and diagnostic checking. The methodology was extensively tested through
+ simulations on a simple one-dimensional case. The results are remarkably
+ stable and well behaved. The estimated field is smooth, while small-scale
+ variability is statistically described. As the quality of measurements
+ improves, the procedure reproduces more features of the original
+ field. The results are also shown to be rather insensitive to deviations
+ from assumptions about the geostatistical structure of the field.},
+ doi = {10.1029/WR019i003p00677},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.03.13}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kjellstrom+al2007,
+ author = {Kjellstr\"om, E. and B\"arring, L. and Jacob, D. and Jones, R. and
+ Lenderink, G. and Sch\"ar, C.},
+ title = {{Modelling daily temperature extremes: recent climate and future
+ changes over Europe}},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {81},
+ pages = {249--265},
+ number = {0},
+ abstract = {Probability distributions of daily maximum and minimum temperatures
+ in a suite of ten RCMs are investigated for (1) biases compared to
+ observations in the present day climate and (2) climate change signals
+ compared to the simulated present day climate. The simulated inter-model
+ differences and climate changes are also compared to the observed
+ natural variability as reflected in some very long instrumental records.
+ All models have been forced with driving conditions from the same
+ global model and run for both a control period and a future scenario
+ period following the A2 emission scenario from IPCC. We find that
+ the bias in the fifth percentile of daily minimum temperatures in
+ winter and at the 95th percentile of daily maximum temperature during
+ summer is smaller than 3 (±5°C) when averaged over most (all) European
+ sub-regions. The simulated changes in extreme temperatures both in
+ summer and winter are larger than changes in the median for large
+ areas. Differences between models are larger for the extremes than
+ for mean temperatures. A comparison with historical data shows that
+ the spread in model predicted changes in extreme temperatures is
+ larger than the natural variability during the last centuries.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10584-006-9220-5},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.02.07}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kjellstrom+al2010,
+ author = {Kjellstr\"om, E. and Boberg, F. and Castro, M. and Chirstensen, J.
+ and Nikulin, G. and S{\'a}nchez, E.},
+ title = {Daily and monthly temperature and precipitation statistics as performance
+ indicators for regional climate models},
+ journal = {Climate Research},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {44},
+ pages = {135--150},
+ number = {2--3},
+ abstract = {We evaluated daily and monthly statistics of maximum and minimum temperatures
+ and precipitation in an ensemble of 16 regional climate models (RCMs)
+ forced by boundary conditions from reanalysis data for 1961–1990.
+ A high-resolution gridded observational data set for land areas in
+ Europe was used. Skill scores were calculated based on the match
+ of simulated and observed empirical probability density functions.
+ The evaluation for different variables, seasons and regions showed
+ that some models were better/worse than others in an overall sense.
+ It also showed that no model that was best/worst in all variables,
+ seasons or regions. Biases in daily precipitation were most pronounced
+ in the wettest part of the probability distribution where the RCMs
+ tended to overestimate precipitation compared to observations. We
+ also applied the skill scores as weights used to calculate weighted
+ ensemble means of the variables. We found that weighted ensemble
+ means were slightly better in comparison to observations than corresponding
+ unweighted ensemble means for most seasons, regions and variables.
+ A number of sensitivity tests showed that the weights were highly
+ sensitive to the choice of skill score metric and data sets involved
+ in the comparison.},
+ doi = {10.3354/cr00932},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.01.12}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kjellstromgiorgi2010,
+ author = {Kjellstr\"om, E. and Giorgi, F.},
+ title = {Introduction},
+ journal = {Climate Research},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {44},
+ pages = {117--119},
+ number = {2--3},
+ abstract = {An ensemble of regional climate models downscaling reanalysis data
+ has been evaluated against observations for the time period 1961–2000.
+ Various aspects of model performance including both their representation
+ of large-scale features and their ability to add value on smaller
+ spatial scales have been considered. A set of metrics has been derived
+ and combined into a performance-based weigthing system that is used
+ in the production of probabilistic climate change projections. Strengths
+ and weaknesses of weighting techniques for RCM ensembles are discussed.},
+ doi = {10.3354/cr00976},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.05.02}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kjellstrom+al2011,
+ author = {Kjellstr\"om, E. and Nikulin, G. and Hansson, U. and Strandberg,
+ G. and Ullerstig, A.},
+ title = {{21st century changes in the European climate: uncertainties derived
+ from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations}},
+ journal = {Tellus {A}},
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {63},
+ pages = {24--40},
+ abstract = {Seasonal mean temperature, precipitation and wind speed over Europe
+ are analysed in an ensemble of 16 regional climate model (RCM) simulations
+ for 1961–2100. The RCM takes boundary conditions from seven global
+ climate models (GCMs) under four emission scenarios. One GCM was
+ run three times under one emission scenario differing only in initial
+ conditions. The ensemble is used to; (i) evaluate the simulated climate
+ for 1961–1990, (ii) assess future climate change and (iii) illustrate
+ uncertainties in future climate change related to natural variability,
+ boundary conditions and emissions. Biases in the 1961–1990 period
+ are strongly related to errors in the large-scale circulation in
+ the GCMs. Significant temperature increases are seen for all of Europe
+ already in the next decades. Precipitation
+
+ increases in northern and decreases in southern Europe with a zone
+ in between where the sign of change is uncertain. Wind speed decreases
+ in many areas with exceptions in the northern seas and in parts of
+ the Mediterranean in summer. Uncertainty largely depends on choice
+ of GCM and their representation of changes in the large-scale circulation.
+ The uncertainty related to forcing is most important by the end of
+ the century while natural variability sometimes dominates the uncertainty
+ in the nearest few decades.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00475.x},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.04.29}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kjellstrom2007,
+ author = {Kjellstr\"om, E. and Ruosteenoja, K.},
+ title = {{Present-day and future precipitation in the Baltica Sea region as
+ simulated in a suite of reginal climate models}},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {81},
+ pages = {97--122},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {Here we investigate simulated changes in the precipitation climate
+ over the Baltic Sea and surrounding land areas for the period 2071–2100
+ as compared to 1961–1990. We analyze precipitation in 10 regional
+ climate models taking part in the European PRUDENCE project. Forced
+ by the same global driving climate model, the mean of the regional
+ climate model simulations captures the observed climatological precipitation
+ over the Baltic Sea runoff land area to within 15% in each month,
+ while single regional models have errors up to 25%. In the future
+ climate, the precipitation is projected to increase in the Baltic
+ Sea area, especially during winter. During summer increased precipitation
+ in the north is contrasted with a decrease in the south of this region.
+ Over the Baltic Sea itself the future change in the seasonal cycle
+ of precipitation is markedly different in the regional climate model
+ simulations. We show that the sea surface temperatures have a profound
+ impact on the simulated hydrological cycle over the Baltic Sea. The
+ driving global climate model used in the common experiment projects
+ a very strong regional increase in summertime sea surface temperature,
+ leading to a significant increase in precipitation. In addition to
+ the common experiment some regional models have been forced by either
+ a different set of Baltic Sea surface temperatures, lateral boundary
+ conditions from another global climate model, a different emission
+ scenario, or different initial conditions. We make use of the large
+ number of experiments in the PRUDENCE project, providing an ensemble
+ consisting of more than 25 realizations of climate change, to illustrate
+ sources of uncertainties in climate change projections.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10584-006-9219-y},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.08.01}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kleintank2003,
+ author = {{Klein Tank}, A. and K{\¨o}nnen, G.},
+ title = {Trend in indices of daily temperature and precipitation extremes
+ in Europe; 1946-99},
+ journal = {Journal of Climate},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {16},
+ pages = {3665--3680},
+ number = {22},
+ abstract = {Trends in indices of climate extremes are studied on the basis of
+ daily series of temperature and precipitation observations from more
+ than 100 meteorological stations in Europe. The period is 1946–99,
+ a warming episode. Averaged over all stations, the indices of temperature
+ extremes indicate ‘‘symmetric’’ warming of the cold and warm tails
+ of the distributions of daily minimum and maximum temperature in
+ this period. However, "asymmetry" is found for the trends if the
+ period is split into two subperiods. For the 1946–75 subperiod, an
+ episode of slight cooling, the annual number of warm extremes decreases,
+ but the annual number of cold extremes does not increase. This implies
+ a reduction in temperature variability. For the 1976–99 subperiod,
+ an episode of pronounced warming, the annual number of warm extremes
+ increases 2 times faster than expected from the corresponding decrease
+ in the number of cold extremes. This implies an increase in temperature
+ variability, which is mainly due to stagnation in the warming of
+ the cold extremes. For precipitation, all Europe-average indices
+ of wet extremes increase in the 1946–99 period, although the spatial
+ coherence of the trends is low. At stations where the annual amount
+ increases, the index that represents the fraction of the annual amount
+ due to very wet days gives a signal of disproportionate large changes
+ in the extremes. At stations with a decreasing annual amount, there
+ is no such amplified response of the extremes. The indices of temperature
+ and precipitation extremes in this study were selected from the list
+ of climate
+
+ change indices recommended by the World Meteorological Organization–Commission
+ for Climatology (WMO–CCL) and the Research Programme on Climate Variability
+ and Predictability (CLIVAR). The selected indices are expressions
+ of events with return periods of 5–60 days. This means that the annual
+ number of events is sufficiently large to allow for meaningful trend
+ analysis in ;50 yr time series. Although the selected indices refer
+ to events that may be called ‘‘soft’’ climate extremes, these indices
+ have clear impact relevance.},
+ doi = {10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3665:TIIODT>2.0.CO;2},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.11.12}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kleinn+al2005,
+ author = {Kleinn, J. and Frei, C. and Gurtz, J. and L\"uthi, D. and Vidale,
+ P. and Sch\"ar, C.},
+ title = {Hydrologic simulations in the {R}hine basin driven by a regional
+ climate model},
+ journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {110},
+ pages = {1--18},
+ number = {D04102},
+ abstract = {We describe and evaluate a model chain for studying streamflow responses
+ to climate variations and anthropogenic climate change. The model
+ chain was developed for the Rhine basin upstream of Cologne, a 145,000
+ km2 river basin in Central Europe north of the Alps. It encompasses
+ a regional climate model (RCM) at grid spacings of 56 and 14 km,
+ and a distributed hydrological model with a grid spacing of 1 km.
+ The hydrological model is one-way nested into the RCM through a downscaling
+ interface, which introduces fine-scale structures in the forcing
+ data (i.e. temperature, precipitation, total net surface radiation,
+ 10-m wind speed, and relative humidity). Biases in precipitation
+ and temperature are accounted for by catchment-dependent but seasonally
+ constant correction factors. Apart from these bias corrections, the
+ hydrological model is forced by hourly RCM data. In the evaluation
+ we compare a 5-year integration driven by observed lateral boundary
+ conditions (ECMWF reanalysis) against daily analysis of high-density
+ rain-gauge data and streamflow data. The regional climate model is
+ found to qualitatively reproduce the main mesoscale precipitation
+ patterns and their seasonal evolution. Systematic biases are, however,
+ found in the distribution of precipitation with topographic height
+ in the Alpine region and at adjacent hill ranges. The RCM also reproduces
+ intercatchment variations in the frequency distribution of daily
+ precipitation. Simulated runoff resembles closely the mean annual
+ cycle, and daily runoff agrees well with observations in timing and
+ amplitude of runoff events for lowland gauges. Larger model errors
+ are found for high-altitude Alpine catchments. The 14-km RCM provides
+ much finer and more realistic precipitation fields compared to the
+ 56-km RCM, but these improvements did not have a significant impact
+ on the skill of the hydrological model to simulate streamflow. The
+ model chain was found to reproduce observed month-to-month variations
+ of basin-mean winter precipitation and streamflow with correlations
+ between 0.85 and 0.95. This result provides confidence that the model
+ chain is able to represent key processes related to streamflow variations
+ in response to climate variations and climate change.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2004JD005143},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.07.30}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{klemes1986,
+ author = {Kleme\v{s}, V.},
+ title = {Operational testing of hydrological simulation models},
+ journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
+ year = {1986},
+ volume = {31},
+ pages = {13--24},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {A hierarchical scheme for the systematic testing of hydrological simulation
+ models is proposed which ties the nature of the test to the difficulty
+ of the modelling task. The testing is referred to as operational,
+ since its aim is merely to assess the performance of a model in situations
+ as close as possible to those in which it is supposed to be used
+ in practice; in other words, to assess its operational adequacy.
+ The measure of the quality of performance is the degree of agreement
+ of the simulation result with observation. Hence, the power of the
+ tests being proposed is rather modest, and even a fully successful
+ result can be seen only as a necessary, rather than a sufficient,
+ condition for model adequacy vis-agrave-vis the specific modelling
+ objective. The scheme contains no new and original ideas; it is merely
+ an attempt to present an organized methodology based on standard
+ techniques, a methodology that can be viewed as a generalization
+ of the routine split-sample test. Its main aim is to accommodate
+ the possibility of testing model transposability, both of the simple
+ geographical kind and of more complex kinds, such as transposability
+ between different types of land use, climate, and other types of
+ environmental changes},
+ doi = {10.1080/02626668609491024},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{koch2009,
+ author = {Koch, H. and V\"ogele, S.},
+ title = {Dynamic modelling of water demand, water availability and adaption
+ strategies for power plants to global change},
+ journal = {Ecological Economics},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {68},
+ pages = {2031--2039},
+ number = {7},
+ month = {May},
+ abstract = {According to the latest IPCC reports, the frequency of hot and dry
+ periods will increase in many regions of the world in the future.
+ For power plant operators, the increasing possibility of water shortages
+ is an important challenge that they have to face. Shortages of electricity
+ due to water shortages could have an influence on industries as well
+ as on private households. Climate change impact analyses must analyse
+ the climate effects on power plants and possible adaptation strategies
+ for the power generation sector. Power plants have lifetimes of several
+ decades. Their water demand changes with climate parameters in the
+ short- and medium-term. In the long-term, the water demand will change
+ as old units are phased out and new generating units appear in their
+ place. In this paper, we describe the integration of functions for
+ the calculation of the water demand of power plants into a water
+ resources management model. Also included are both short-term reactive
+ and long-term planned adaptation. This integration allows us to simulate
+ the interconnection between the water demand of power plants and
+ water resources management, i.e. water availability. Economic evaluation
+ functions for water shortages are also integrated into the water
+ resources management model. This coupled model enables us to analyse
+ scenarios of socio-economic and climate change, as well as the effects
+ of water management actions.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.02.015},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.08.10}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{koivumaki+al2010,
+ author = {Koivum\"aki, L. and Alho, P. and Lotsari, E. and K\"ayhk\"o, J. and
+ Saari, A. and Hyypp\"a, H.},
+ title = {Uncertainties in flood risk mapping: case study on estimating building
+ damages for a river flood in {Finland}},
+ journal = {Journal of Flood Risk Management},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {3},
+ pages = {166--183},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {In our review of recent flood risk mapping approaches in Europe, we
+ noted that the sources of uncertainty were rarely questioned. We
+ demonstrated potential sources of uncertainty in flood risk mapping
+ of buildings using a case study of a spring flood in 2005, in Kittilä,
+ Finland. One- and two-dimensional hydraulic models of the flood corresponded
+ well with the actual inundation. The initial modelling result of
+ the inundated buildings differed considerably from reality, but this
+ could be improved through modelling performed with more diverse building
+ elevation data. The accuracy of the digital terrain model is a key
+ determinant in the accuracy of flood hazard modelling. An exposure
+ analysis of buildings is often utilized by an overlay analysis of
+ map layers representing both the flood and the buildings. However,
+ we indicated that the analysis may be partly hindered by the characteristics
+ and inaccuracies of the building datasets used and the modelled flood.
+ In flood damage modelling, the average damages calculated from the
+ database were used, as empirical damage data were too general for
+ a detailed flood damage assessment. Damage modelling with empirical
+ and synthetic damage data could be made more reliable through better
+ archiving of actual flood damages and by performing more diverse
+ damage estimates of standard buildings.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1753-318X.2010.01064.x},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.08.06}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kovumaki+al2010,
+ author = {Koivumäki, L. and Alho, P. and Lotsari, E. and Käyhkö, J. and Saari,
+ A. and Hyyppä, H.},
+ title = {Uncertainties in flood risk mapping: a case study on estimating building
+ damages for a river flood in Finland},
+ journal = {Journal of Flood Risk Management},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {3},
+ pages = {166--183},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {In our review of recent flood risk mapping approaches in Europe, we
+ noted that the sources of uncertainty were rarely questioned. We
+ demonstrated potential sources of uncertainty in flood risk mapping
+ of buildings using a case study of a spring flood in 2005, in Kittilä,
+ Finland. One- and two-dimensional hydraulic models of the flood corresponded
+ well with the actual inundation. The initial modelling result of
+ the inundated buildings differed considerably from reality, but this
+ could be improved through modelling performed with more diverse building
+ elevation data. The accuracy of the digital terrain model is a key
+ determinant in the accuracy of flood hazard modelling. An exposure
+ analysis of buildings is often utilized by an overlay analysis of
+ map layers representing both the flood and the buildings. However,
+ we indicated that the analysis may be partly hindered by the characteristics
+ and inaccuracies of the building datasets used and the modelled flood.
+ In flood damage modelling, the average damages calculated from the
+ database were used, as empirical damage data were too general for
+ a detailed flood damage assessment. Damage modelling with empirical
+ and synthetic damage data could be made more reliable through better
+ archiving of actual flood damages and by performing more diverse
+ damage estimates of standard buildings.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1753-318X.2010.01064.x},
+ issn = {1753-318X},
+ keywords = {Flood risk mapping, flood damages of buildings, modelling, the EU's
+ Flood Directive, uncertainty},
+ publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{konikow1992,
+ author = {Konikow, L. and Bredehoeft, J.},
+ title = {Ground--water models cannot be validated},
+ journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
+ year = {1992},
+ volume = {15},
+ pages = {75--83},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {Ground-water models are embodiments of scientific hypotheses. As such,
+ the models cannot be proven or validated, but only tested and invalidated.
+ However, model testing and the evaluation of predictive errors lead
+ to improved models and a better understanding of the problem at hand.
+ In applying ground-water models to field problems, errors arise from
+ conceptual deficiencies, numerical errors, and inadequate parameter
+ estimation. Case histories of model applications to the Dakota Aquifer,
+ South Dakota, to bedded salts in New Mexico, and to the upper Coachella
+ Valley, California, illustrate that calibration produces a nonunique
+ solution and that validation, per se, is a futile objective. Although
+ models are definitely valuable tools for analyzing ground-water systems,
+ their predictive accuracy is limited. The terms validation and verification
+ are misleading and their use in ground-water science should be abandoned
+ in favor of more meaningful model-assessment descriptors.},
+ doi = {10.1016/0309-1708(92)90033-X},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.03.25}
+}
+
+@INPROCEEDINGS{konikow2007,
+ author = {Konikow, L. and Reilly, T. and Barlow, P. and Voss, C.},
+ title = {Groundwater modeling},
+ booktitle = {The handbook of groundwater engineering, chapter 23.},
+ year = {2007},
+ editor = {Delleur, J.},
+ pages = {1--50},
+ address = {Boca Raton, Florida},
+ publisher = {CRC Press},
+ chapter = {23},
+ edition = {Second},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.06.02}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{krause+al2005,
+ author = {Krause, P. and Boyle, D. and B{\"a}se, F.},
+ title = {Comparison of different efficiency criteria for hydrological model
+ assessment},
+ journal = {Advances in Geosciences},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {5},
+ pages = {89--97},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {The evaluation of hydrologic model behaviour and performance is commonly
+ made and reported through comparisons of simulated and observed variables.
+ Frequently, comparisons are made between simulated and measured streamflow
+ at the catchment outlet. In distributed hydrological modelling approaches,
+ additional comparisons of simulated and observed measurements for
+ multi-response validation may be integrated into the evaluation procedure
+ to assess overall modelling performance. In both approaches, single
+ and multi-response, efficiency criteria are commonly used by hydrologists
+ to provide an objective assessment of the "closeness" of the simulated
+ behaviour to the observed measurements. While there are a few efficiency
+ criteria such as the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, coefficient of determination,
+ and index of agreement that are frequently used in hydrologic modeling
+ studies and reported in the literature, there are a large number
+ of other efficiency criteria to choose from. The selection and use
+ of specific efficiency criteria and the interpretation of the results
+ can be a challenge for even the most experienced hydrologist since
+ each criterion may place different emphasis on different types of
+ simulated and observed behaviours. In this paper, the utility of
+ several efficiency criteria is investigated in three examples using
+ a simple observed streamflow hydrograph.},
+ doi = {10.5194/adgeo-5-89-2005},
+ keywords = {bR2},
+ tags = {calibration, Goodness-of-Fit}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kraussecullmann2011a,
+ author = {Krau{\ss}e, T. and Cullmann, J.},
+ title = {Identification of hydrological model parameters for flood forecasting
+ using data depth measures},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions},
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {8},
+ pages = {2423--2476},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {The development of methods for estimating the parameters of hydrological
+ models considering uncertainties has been of high interest in hydrological
+ research over the last years. Besides the very popular Markov Chain
+ Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods which estimate the uncertainty of model
+ parameters in the settings of a Bayesian framework, the development
+ of depth based sampling methods, also entitled robust parameter estimation
+ (ROPE), have attracted an increasing research interest. These methods
+ understand the estimation of model parameters as a geometric search
+ of a set of robust performing parameter vectors by application of
+ the concept of data depth. Recent studies showed that the parameter
+ vectors estimated by depth based sampling perform more robust in
+ validation. One major advantage of this kind of approach over the
+ MCMC methods is that the formulation of a likelihood function within
+ a Bayesian uncertainty framework gets obsolete and arbitrary purpose-oriented
+ performance criteria defined by the user can be integrated without
+ any further complications. In this paper we present an advanced ROPE
+ method entitled the Advanced Robust Parameter Estimation by Monte
+ Carlo algorithm (AROPEMC). The AROPEMC algorithm is a modified version
+ of the original robust parameter estimation algorithm ROPEMC developed
+ by B{\'a}rdossy and Singh (2008). AROPEMC performs by merging iterative
+ Monte Carlo simulations, identifying well performing parameter vectors,
+ the sampling of robust parameter vectors according to the principle
+ of data depth and the application of a well-founded stopping criterion
+ applied in supervised machine learning. The principals of the algorithm
+ are illustrated by means of the Rosenbrock's and Rastrigin's function,
+ two well known performance benchmarks for optimisation algorithms.
+ Two case studies demonstrate the advantage of AROPEMC compared to
+ state of the art global optimisation algorithms. A distributed process-oriented
+ hydrological model is calibrated and validated for flood forecasting
+ in a small catchment characterised by extreme process dynamics.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hessd-8-2423-2011},
+ tags = {Calibration, Floods}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kraussecullmann2011b,
+ author = {Krau{\ss}e, T. and Cullmann, J.},
+ title = {Towards a more representative parametrisation of hydrological models
+ via synthesizing the strengths of particle swarm optimisation and
+ robust parameter estimation},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions},
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {8},
+ pages = {2373--2422},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {The development of methods for estimating the parameters of hydrological
+ models considering uncertainties has been of high interest in hydrological
+ research over the last years. In particular methods which understand
+ the estimation of hydrological model parameters as a geometric search
+ of a set of robust performing parameter vectors by application of
+ the concept of data depth found growing research interest. B{\'a}rdossy
+ and Singh (2008) presented a first proposal and applied it for the
+ calibration of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model with daily time
+ step. Krau{{\ss}}e and Cullmann (2011) further developed this method
+ and applied it in a case study to calibrate a process oriented hydrological
+ model with hourly time step focussing on flood events in a fast responding
+ catchment. The results of both studies showed the potential of the
+ application of the principle of data depth. However, also the weak
+ point of the presented approach got obvious. The algorithm identifies
+ a set of model parameter vectors with high model performance and
+ subsequently generates a set of parameter vectors with high data
+ depth with respect to the first set. These both steps are repeated
+ iteratively until a stopping criterion is met. In the first step
+ the estimation of the good parameter vectors is based on the Monte
+ Carlo method. The major shortcoming of this method is that it is
+ strongly dependent on a high number of samples exponentially growing
+ with the dimensionality of the problem. In this paper we present
+ another robust parameter estimation strategy which applies an approved
+ search strategy for high-dimensional parameter spaces, the particle
+ swarm optimisation in order to identify a set of good parameter vectors
+ with given uncertainty bounds. The generation of deep parameters
+ is according to Krau{{\ss}}e and Cullmann (2011). The method was
+ compared to the Monte Carlo based robust parameter estimation algorithm
+ on the example of a case study in Krau{{\ss}}e and Cullmann (2011)
+ to calibrate the process-oriented distributed hydrological model
+ focussing for flood forecasting in a small catchment characterised
+ by extreme process dynamics. In a second case study the comparison
+ is repeated on a problem with higher dimensionality considering further
+ parameters of the soil module},
+ doi = {10.5194/hessd-8-2373-2011},
+ tags = {Calibration, PSO}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kreibich+al2009,
+ author = {Kreibich, H. and Piroth, K. and Seifert, I. and Maiwald, H. and Kunert,
+ U. and Schwarz, J. and Merz, B. and Thieken, A. H.},
+ title = {Is flow velocity a significant parameter in flood damage modelling?},
+ journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Science},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {9},
+ pages = {1679--1692},
+ number = {5},
+ doi = {10.5194/nhess-9-1679-2009}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{krueger+al2010,
+ author = {Krueger, T. and Freer, J. and Quinton, J. and Macleod, C. and Bilotta,
+ G. and Brazier, R. and Butler, P. and Haygarth, P.},
+ title = {Ensemble evaluation of hydrological model hypotheses},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {46},
+ pages = {1--17},
+ doi = {10.1029/2009WR007845},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.07.30}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{krysanova+al2005,
+ author = {Krysanova, V. and Hattermann, F. and Habeck, A.},
+ title = {Expected changes in water resources availability and water quality
+ with respect to climate change in the {E}lbe {R}iver basin ({G}ermany)},
+ journal = {Nordic Hydrology},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {36},
+ pages = {321--333},
+ number = {4--5},
+ abstract = {Reliable modelling of climate–water interactions at the river basin
+ and regional scale requires development of advanced modelling approaches
+ at scales relevant for assessing the potential effects of climate
+ change on the hydrological cycle. These approaches should represent
+ the atmospheric, surface and subsurface hydrological processes and
+ take into account their characteristic temporal and spatial scales
+ of occurrence. The paper presents a climate change impact assessment
+ performed for the Elbe River basin in Germany (about 100?000?km2).
+ The method used for the study combines: (a) a statistical downscaling
+ method driven by GCM-predicted temperature trend for producing climate
+ scenarios, and (b) a simulation technique based on an ecohydrological
+ semi-distributed river basin model, which was thoroughly validated
+ in advance. The overall result of the climate impact study for the
+ basin is that the mean water discharge and the mean groundwater recharge
+ in the Elbe basin will be most likely decreased under the expected
+ climate change and diffuse source pollution will be diminished. Our
+ study confirms that the uncertainty in hydrological and water quality
+ responses to changing climate is generally higher than the uncertainty
+ in climate input. The method is transferable to other basins in the
+ temperate zone.},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.08.04},
+ url = {http://www.iwaponline.com/nh/036/nh0360321.htm}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{krysanova+al2007,
+ author = {Krysanova, V. and Hattermann, F. and Wechsung, F.},
+ title = {Implications of complexity and uncertainty for integrated modelling
+ and impact assessment in river basins},
+ journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {22},
+ pages = {701--709},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {The paper focuses on implications of complexity and uncertainty in
+ climate change impact assessment at the river basin and regional
+ scales. The study was performed using the process-based ecohydrological
+ spatially semi distributed model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated
+ Model). The model integrates hydrological processes, vegetation/crop
+ growth, erosion and nutrient dynamics in river basins. It was developed
+ from the SWAT and MATSALU models for climate and land use change
+ impact assessment. The study area is the German part of the Elbe
+ River basin (about 100,000 km2). It is representative for semi-humid
+ landscapes in Europe, where water availability during the summer
+ season is the limiting factor for plant growth and crop yield. The
+ validation method followed the multi-scale, multi-site and multi-criteria
+ approach and enabled to reproduce (a) water discharge and nutrient
+ load at the river outlet along with (b) local ecohydrological processes
+ like water table dynamics in subbasins, nutrient fluxes and vegetation
+ growth dynamics at multiple scales and sites. The uncertainty of
+ climate impacts was evaluated using comprehensive Monte Carlo simulation
+ experiments},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2005.12.029},
+ keywords = {SWAT, Integrated modelling, Ecohydrological model, Climate impact,
+ Uncertainty, Elbe River},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, Climate Change, SWAT}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{krzysztofowi2010,
+ author = {Krzysztofowicz, R.},
+ title = {Decision criteria, data fusion and prediction calibration: a {B}ayesian
+ approach},
+ journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {55},
+ pages = {1033--1050},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {The novel research paradigm, dubbed the {``}court of miracles of hydrological
+ modelling{''}, focuses on achieving scientific progress in circumstances
+ which traditionally would be called model failures. Many of the associated
+ modelling issues can be addressed systematically and coherently within
+ the mathematical framework of Bayesian forecast-decision theory.
+ Five of them are addressed herein: (a) choosing a criterion function
+ for making rational decisions under uncertainty (a meta-decision
+ problem); (b) modelling stochastic dependence between variates to
+ quantify uncertainty and predict realizations; (c) fusing data from
+ asymmetric samples to cope with unrepresentativeness of small samples
+ and corruptive effects of outliers; (d) calibrating probabilistic
+ predictions against a prior distribution; and (e) ordering predictors,
+ or models, in terms of their informativeness (equivalently, in terms
+ of their economic value to a decider). It is suggested that communication
+ between hydrologists and deciders (planners, engineers, operators
+ of hydrosystems) would benefit if hydrologists adopted, at least
+ on some issues, the perspective of deciders, who must act in a timely
+ and rational manner, and for whom hydrological estimates and predictions
+ have economic consequences. },
+ doi = {10.1080/02626667.2010.505894},
+ keywords = {decision making, decision criteria, expected utility, estimation,
+ uncertainty, distribution function, data fusion, prediction calibration,
+ informativeness, Bayesian approach },
+ tags = {Calibration, Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kristofowicz1999,
+ author = {Krzysztofowicz, R.},
+ title = {Bayesian theory of probabilistic forecasting via deterministic hydrologic
+ model},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1999},
+ volume = {35},
+ pages = {2739--2750},
+ number = {9},
+ abstract = {Rational decision making (for flood warning, navigation, or reservoir
+ systems) requires that the total uncertainty about a hydrologic predictand
+ (such as river stage, discharge, or runoff volume) be quantified
+ in terms of a probability distribution, conditional on all available
+ information and knowledge. Hydrologic knowledge is typically embodied
+ in a deterministic catchment model. Fundamentals are presented of
+ a Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) for producing a probabilistic
+ forecast of a hydrologic predictand via any deterministic catchment
+ model. The BFS decomposes the total uncertainty into input uncertainty
+ and hydrologic uncertainty, which are quantified independently and
+ then integrated into a predictive (Bayes) distribution. This distribution
+ results from a revision of a prior (climatic) distribution, is well
+ calibrated, and has a nonnegative ex ante economic value. The BFS
+ is compared with Monte Carlo simulation and “ensemble forecastingâ€
+ technique, none of which can alone produce a probabilistic forecast
+ that meets requirements of rational decision making, but each can
+ serve as a component of the BFS.},
+ doi = {10.1029/1999WR900099},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.11.28}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kuczera1990,
+ author = {Kuczera, G.},
+ title = {Assessing hydrologic model nonlinearity using response surface plots},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {1990},
+ volume = {118},
+ pages = {143},
+ number = {1-4},
+ doi = {10.1016/0022-1694(90)90255-V},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kuczera1983a,
+ author = {Kuczera, G.},
+ title = {Improved Parameter Inference in Catchment Models 1. Evaluating Parameter
+ Uncertainty},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1983},
+ volume = {19},
+ pages = {1151--1162},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {A Bayesian methodology is developed to evaluate parameter uncertainty
+ in catchment models fitted to a hydrologic response such as runoff,
+ the goal being to improve the chance of successful regionalization.
+ The catchment model is posed as a nonlinear regression model with
+ stochastic errors possibly being both autocorrelated and heteroscedastic.
+ The end result of this methodology, which may use Box-Cox power transformations
+ and ARMA error models, is the posterior distribution, which summarizes
+ what is known about the catchment model parameters. This can be simplified
+ to a multivariate normal provided a linearization in parameter space
+ is acceptable; means of checking and improving this assumption are
+ discussed. The posterior standard deviations give a direct measure
+ of parameter uncertainty, and study of the posterior correlation
+ matrix can indicate what kinds of data are required to improve the
+ precision of poorly determined parameters. Finally, a case study
+ involving a nine-parameter catchment model fitted to monthly runoff
+ and soil moisture data is presented. It is shown that use of ordinary
+ least squares when its underlying error assumptions are violated
+ gives an erroneous description of parameter uncertainty.},
+ doi = {10.1029/WR019i005p01151},
+ tags = {Calibration, Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kuczera1983b,
+ author = {Kuczera, G.},
+ title = {Improved Parameter Inference in Catchment Models 2. Combining Different
+ Kinds of Hydrologic Data and Testing Their Compatibility },
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1983},
+ volume = {19},
+ pages = {1163--1172},
+ number = {5},
+ doi = {10.1029/WR019i005p01163},
+ tags = {Calibration, Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kuczera+al2006,
+ author = {Kuczera, G. and Kavetski, D. and Franks, S. and Thyer, M.},
+ title = {Towards a Bayesian total error analysis of conceptual rainfall-runoff
+ models: Characterising model error using storm-dependent parameters},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {331},
+ pages = {161},
+ number = {1-2},
+ abstract = {Calibration and prediction in conceptual rainfall-runoff (CRR) modelling
+ is affected by the uncertainty in the observed forcing/response data
+ and the structural error in the model. This study works towards the
+ goal of developing a robust framework for dealing with these sources
+ of error and focuses on model error. The characterisation of model
+ error in CRR modelling has been thwarted by the convenient but indefensible
+ treatment of CRR models as deterministic descriptions of catchment
+ dynamics. This paper argues that the fluxes in CRR models should
+ be treated as stochastic quantities because their estimation involves
+ spatial and temporal averaging. Acceptance that CRR models are intrinsically
+ stochastic paves the way for a more rational characterisation of
+ model error. The hypothesis advanced in this paper is that CRR model
+ error can be characterised by storm-dependent random variation of
+ one or more CRR model parameters. A simple sensitivity analysis is
+ used to identify the parameters most likely to behave stochastically,
+ with variation in these parameters yielding the largest changes in
+ model predictions as measured by the Nash{--}Sutcliffe criterion.
+ A Bayesian hierarchical model is then formulated to explicitly differentiate
+ between forcing, response and model error. It provides a very general
+ framework for calibration and prediction, as well as for testing
+ hypotheses regarding model structure and data uncertainty. A case
+ study calibrating a six-parameter CRR model to daily data from the
+ Abercrombie catchment (Australia) demonstrates the considerable potential
+ of this approach. Allowing storm-dependent variation in just two
+ model parameters (with one of the parameters characterising model
+ error and the other reflecting input uncertainty) yields a substantially
+ improved model fit raising the Nash{--}Sutcliffe statistic from 0.74
+ to 0.94. Of particular significance is the use of posterior diagnostics
+ to test the key assumptions about the data and model errors. The
+ assumption that the storm-dependent parameters are log-normally distributed
+ is only partially supported by the data, which suggests that the
+ parameter hyper-distributions have thicker tails. The results also
+ indicate that in this case study the uncertainty in the rainfall
+ data dominates model uncertainty.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.05.010},
+ keywords = {Conceptual rainfall-runoff modelling, Parameter calibration, Model
+ error, Input uncertainty, Bayesian parameter estimation, Parameter
+ variation, Model determinism},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kuczera+al2010,
+ author = {Kuczera, G. and Kavetski, D. and Renard, B. and Thyer, M.},
+ title = {A limited-memory acceleration strategy for {MCMC} sampling in hierarchical
+ {B}ayesian calibration of hydrological models},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {46},
+ pages = {W07602},
+ abstract = {Hydrological calibration and prediction using conceptual models is
+ affected by forcing/response data uncertainty and structural model
+ error. The Bayesian Total Error Analysis methodology uses a hierarchical
+ representation of individual sources of uncertainty. However, it
+ is shown that standard multiblock {``}Metropolis-within-Gibbs{''}
+ Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers commonly used in Bayesian
+ hierarchical inference are exceedingly computationally expensive
+ when applied to hydrologic models, which use recursive numerical
+ solutions of coupled nonlinear differential equations to describe
+ the evolution of catchment states such as soil and groundwater storages.
+ This note develops a {``}limited-memory{''} algorithm for accelerating
+ multiblock MCMC sampling from the posterior distributions of such
+ models using low-dimensional jump distributions. The new algorithm
+ exploits the decaying memory of hydrological systems to provide accurate
+ tolerance-based approximations of traditional {``}full-memory{''}
+ MCMC methods and is orders of magnitude more efficient than the latter.
+ },
+ doi = {10.1029/2009WR008985},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kuczera+al2010b,
+ author = {Kuczera, G. and Renard, B. and Thyer, M. and Kavetski, D.},
+ title = {There are no hydrological monsters, just models and observations
+ with large uncertainties!},
+ journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {55},
+ pages = {980--991},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {Catchments that do not behave in the way the hydrologist expects,
+ expose the frailties of hydrological science, particularly its unduly
+ simplistic treatment of input and model uncertainty. A conceptual
+ rainfall-runoff model represents a highly simplified hypothesis of
+ the transformation of rainfall into runoff. Sub-grid variability
+ and mis-specification of processes introduce an irreducible model
+ error, about which little is currently known. In addition, hydrological
+ observation systems are far from perfect, with the principal catchment
+ forcing (rainfall) often subject to large sampling errors. When ignored
+ or treated simplistically, these errors develop into monsters that
+ destroy our ability to model certain catchments. In this paper, these
+ monsters are tackled using Bayesian Total Error Analysis, a framework
+ that accounts for user-specified sources of error and yields quantitative
+ insights into how prior knowledge of these uncertainties affects
+ our ability to infer models and use them for predictive purposes.
+ A case study involving a catchment with an apparent water balance
+ anomaly (a hydrological monstrosity!) illustrates these concepts.
+ It is found that, in the absence of additional information, the rainfall-runoff
+ record is insufficient to explain this anomaly - it could be due
+ to a large export of groundwater, systematic overestimation of catchment
+ rainfall of the order of 40\%, or a conspiracy of these factors.
+ There is {``}no free lunch{''} in hydrology. The rainfall-runoff
+ record on its own is insufficient to decompose the different sources
+ of uncertainty affecting calibration, testing and prediction, and
+ hydrological monstrosities will persist until additional independent
+ knowledge of uncertainties is obtained. },
+ doi = {10.1080/02626667.2010.504677},
+ keywords = {Bayesian total error analysis, model structural error, data errors,
+ rainfall-runoff models, ill-posedness },
+ tags = {Calibration, Philosophical, Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kuczerawilliams1992,
+ author = {G. Kuczera and B. J. Williams},
+ title = {Effect of Rainfall Errors on Accuracy of Design Flood Estimates},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1992},
+ volume = {28},
+ pages = {1145--1153},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {A procedure is presented to explicitly evaluate the effect of estimation
+ errors in the temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall on the
+ uncertainty of calibrated rainfall-runoff model parameters. The effect
+ of this uncertainty on the reliability of design flood predictions
+ is considered. A case study of the Hacking catchment, south of Sydney,
+ Australia, is presented to illustrate the procedure. For a major
+ storm event a simple stochastic transformed rainfall model is calibrated
+ and validated using kriging and then used to infer the mean and covariance
+ of subareal rainfall. The RORB model, a distributed nonlinear rainfall-runoff
+ model, is calibrated to this storm event. When allowance is made
+ for uncertainty in the calibration event rainfall, the results indicate
+ that the uncertainty in the calibrated parameters increases, especially
+ in the rainfall excess parameters, and the 90\% prediction interval
+ on the 100-year design flood increases by about 100\%},
+ doi = {10.1029/91WR03002},
+ tags = {Rainfall}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kundzewicz2011,
+ author = {Kundzewicz, Z.},
+ title = {{Nonstationarity in water resources--central European perspective}},
+ journal = {Journal of the American Water Resources Association},
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {47},
+ pages = {550--562},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {Nonstationarity in variables describing water quantity and water quality
+ characteristics is reviewed, and an attempt to interpret nonstationary
+ behavior is made with particular reference to the Central European
+ region. Nonstationarity in water-related variables results from several
+ nonclimatic and climatic factors. Albeit evidence of climate change
+ in Central Europe is clear, anthropogenic nonclimatic change, such
+ as land-use or land-cover changes, water engineering measures, and
+ in-catchment water management play important roles. Systemic socioeconomic
+ and political changes are the main factors responsible for the observed
+ change in water quality in the region. The observed climate change
+ in the Central European region has not been dramatic enough to persuade
+ the water management community that changes of standards, criteria,
+ and evaluation procedures should be made. Projections for the future
+ largely differ between models and scenarios, hence information obtained
+ from climate models is found too vague to be used. However, the water
+ management community shows interest in climate change observations,
+ projections, and impact assessments. Numerous hydrological research
+ projects to tackle nonstationarity have been undertaken in the region.
+ Also important acts of legislation, such as the European Union’s
+ Water Framework Directive and Floods Directive can be regarded in
+ the context of nonstationarity of water-related variables.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00549.x},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.08.01}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kundzewicz+al2010,
+ author = {Kundzewicz, Z. and Hirabayaschi, Y. and Kanae, S.},
+ title = {River floods in the changing climate--observations and projections},
+ journal = {Water Resources Management},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {24},
+ pages = {2633--2646},
+ number = {11},
+ abstract = {River flood damages, worldwide, have increased dynamically in the
+ last few decades, so that it is necessary to interpret this change.
+ River flooding is a complex phenomenon which can be affected by changes
+ coupled to terrestrial, socio-economic and climate systems. The climate
+ track in the observed changes is likely, even if human encroaching
+ into the harm’s way and increase in the damage potential in floodplains
+ can be the dominating factors in many river basins. Increase in intense
+ precipitation has already been observed, with consequences to increasing
+ risk of rain-induced flooding. Projections for the future, based
+ on climate model simulations, indicate increase of flood risks in
+ many areas, globally. Over large areas, a 100-year flood in the control
+ period is projected to become much more frequent in the future time
+ horizon. Despite the fact that the degree of uncertainty in model-based
+ projections is considerable and difficult to quantify, the change
+ in design flood frequency has obvious relevance to flood risk management
+ practice. The number of flood-affected people is projected to increase
+ with the amount of warming. For a 4°C warming the number of flood-affected
+ people is over 2.5 times higher than for a 2°C warming. The present
+ contribution addresses the climate track in an integrated way, tackling
+ issues related to multiple factors, change detection, projections,
+ and adaptation to floods.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s11269-009-9571-6},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.08.01}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kundedzewicz+al2010,
+ author = {Kundzewicz, Z. and Lugeri, N. and Dankers, R. and Hirabayaschi, Y.
+ and D\"oll, P. Pi\'nskar, I. and Dysarz, T. and Hochrainer, S. and
+ Matczak, P.},
+ title = {Assessing river flood risk and adaptation in {E}urope---review of
+ projections for the future},
+ journal = {Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {15},
+ pages = {641--656},
+ number = {7},
+ abstract = {Flood damages have exhibited a rapid upward trend, both globally and
+ in Europe, faster than population and economic growth. Hence, vigorous
+ attempts of attribution of changes have been made. Flood risk and
+ vulnerability tend to change over many areas, due to a range of climatic
+ and nonclimatic impacts whose relative importance is site-specific.
+ Flooding is a complex phenomenon and there are several generating
+ mechanisms, among others intense and/or long-lasting precipitation,
+ snowmelt, ice jam. Projected climate-driven changes in future flood
+ frequency are complex, depending on the generating mechanism, e.g.,
+ increasing flood magnitudes where floods result of heavy rainfall
+ and possibly decreasing magnitudes where floods are generated by
+ spring snowmelt. Climate change is likely to cause an increase of
+ the risk of riverine flooding across much of Europe. Projections
+ of flood hazard in Europe based on climatic and hydrological models,
+ reviewed in this paper, illustrate possible changes of recurrence
+ of a 100-year flood (with probability of exceedance being 1-in-100
+ years) in Europe. What used to be a 100-year flood in the control
+ period is projected to become either more frequent or less frequent
+ in the future time horizon of concern. For a large part of the continent,
+ large flooding is projected to become more commonplace in future,
+ warmer climate. Due to the large uncertainty of climate projections,
+ it is currently not possible to devise a scientifically-sound procedure
+ for redefining design floods (e.g. 100-year flood) in order to adjust
+ flood defenses. For the time being, we recommend to adjust design
+ floods using a “climate change factor†approach.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s11027-010-9213-6},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.21}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kundzewicz+al2008,
+ author = {Kundzewicz, Z. and Mata, L. and Arnell, N. and D\"oll, P. and Jimenez,
+ B. and Miller, K. and Oki, T. and Sen, Z. and Shiklomanov, I.},
+ title = {The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources
+ and their management},
+ journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {1},
+ pages = {3--10},
+ number = {1},
+ month = {February},
+ doi = {10.1623/hysj.53.1.11},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.08.10}
+}
+
+@INCOLLECTION{kundzewicz+al2007,
+ author = {Kundzewicz, Z. and Mata, L. and Arnell, N. and D\"oll, P. and Kabat,
+ P. and Jim\'enez, B. and Miller, K. and Oki, T. and Sen, Z. and Shiklomanov,
+ I.},
+ title = {Freshwater resources and their management},
+ booktitle = {Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution
+ of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
+ Panel on Climate Change},
+ publisher = {Cambridge {U}niversity {P}ress},
+ year = {2007},
+ editor = {M. L. Parry and O. F. Canziani and J. P. Palutikof and P. J. {van
+ der Linden} and C.E. Hanson},
+ address = {Cambridge, {UK}, 173-210},
+ tags = {IPCC}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kundzewicz+al2006,
+ author = {Kundzewicz, Z. and Radziejewski, M. and Pi\"nskwar, I.},
+ title = {{Precipitation extremes in the changing climate of Europe}},
+ journal = {Climate Research},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {31},
+ pages = {51--58},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {Several episodes of extreme precipitation or extreme lack of precipitation
+ (and high temperature) leading to dramatic and high-impact floods
+ and droughts have occurred in Europe in recent years. Climate scenarios
+ suggest that problems of too little or too much water may become
+ more severe in the future. Using data from the Hadley Centre’s HadRM3
+ model, this paper analyzes future changes in the characteristics
+ of intense precipitation (mean daily precipitation amounts and number
+ of days with intense precipitation in a year) and the duration of
+ dry (also dry and hot) spells over the European continent, comparing
+ the time periods of 1961–1990 and 2070–2099. The potential for intense
+ precipitation is likely to increase in the warmer climate of the
+ future, contributing to the growth of flood hazard in areas where
+ inundations are typically triggered by heavy rain. The projected
+ number of days with intense precipitation and the maximum daily precipitation
+ are likely to increase over much of Europe, especially in the central
+ and northern parts. According to projections, ‘dry and hot’ extremes
+ may become more severe for most of Europe. The areas already affected
+ by water stress in the present climate (e.g. southern Europe) are
+ expected to experience even more severe conditions.},
+ doi = {10.3354/cr031051},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.07.08}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kundzewicz+al2005,
+ author = {Kundzewicz, Z. and Ulbrich, U. and Br\"ucher, T. and Graczyk, D.
+ and Kr\"uger, A. and Leckebusch, G. and Menzel, L. and Pi\'nskwar,
+ I. and Radziejewski, M. and Szwed, M.},
+ title = {{Summer floods in Central Europe - Climate change track?}},
+ journal = {Natural Hazards},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {36},
+ pages = {165--189},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {In Central Europe, river flooding has been recently recognized as
+ a major hazard, in particular after the 1997 Odra /Oder flood, the
+ 2001 Vistula flood, and the most destructive 2002 deluge on the Labe/Elbe.
+ Major recent floods in central Europe are put in perspective and
+ their common elements are identified. Having observed that flood
+ risk and vulnerability are likely to have grown in many areas, one
+ is curious to understand the reasons for growth. These can be sought
+ in socio-economic domain (humans encroaching into floodplain areas),
+ terrestrial systems (land-cover changes – urbanization, deforestation,
+ reduction of wetlands, river regulation), and climate system. The
+ atmospheric capacity to absorb moisture, its potential water content,
+ and thus potential for intense precipitation, are likely to increase
+ in a warmer climate. The changes in intense precipitation and high
+ flows are examined, based on observations and projections. Study
+ of projected changes in intense precipitation, using climate models,
+ for several areas of central Europe, and in particular, for drainage
+ basins of the upper Labe/Elbe, Odra/Oder, and Vistula is reported.
+ Significant changes have been identified between future projections
+ and the reference period, of relevance to flood hazard in areas,
+ which have experienced severe recent floodings.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s11069-004-4547-6},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.07.08}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kunstmann2002,
+ author = {Kunstmann, H. and Kinzelbach, W. and Siegfried, T.},
+ title = {Conditional first-order second--moment method and its applications
+ to the quantification of uncertainty in groundwater modeling},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {38},
+ pages = {1035--1048},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {Decision making in water resources management usually requires the
+ quantification of uncertainties. Monte Carlo techniques are suited
+ for this analysis but imply a huge computational effort. An alternative
+ and computationally efficient approach is the first-order second-moment
+ (FOSM) method which directly propagates parameter uncertainty into
+ the result. We apply the FOSM method to both the groundwater flow
+ and solute transport equations. It is shown how conditioning on the
+ basis of measured heads and/or concentrations yields the “principle
+ of interdependent uncertainty†that correlates the uncertainties
+ of feasible hydraulic conductivities and recharge rates. The method
+ is used to compute the uncertainty of steady state heads and of steady
+ state solute concentrations. It is illustrated by an application
+ to the Palla Road Aquifer in semiarid Botswana, for which the quantification
+ of the uncertainty range of groundwater recharge is of prime interest.
+ The uncertainty bounds obtained by the FOSM method correspond well
+ with the results obtained by the Monte Carlo method. The FOSM method,
+ however, is much more advantageous with respect to computational
+ efficiency. It is shown that at the planned abstraction rate the
+ probability of exceeding the natural replenishment of the Palla Road
+ Aquifer by overpumping is 30%.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2000WR000022},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kunstmann+al2006,
+ author = {Kunstmann, H. and Krause, J. and Mayr, S.},
+ title = {Inverse distributed hydrological modelling of {A}lpine catchments},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {10},
+ pages = {395--412},
+ abstract = {Even in physically based distributed hydrological models, various
+ remaining parameters must be estimated for each sub-catchment. This
+ can involve tremendous effort, especially when the number of sub-catchments
+ is large and the applied hydrological model is computationally expensive.
+ Automatic parameter estimation tools can significantly facilitate
+ the calibration process. Hence, we combined the nonlinear parameter
+ estimation tool PEST with the distributed hydrological model WaSiM.
+ PEST is based on the Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg method, a gradient-based
+ nonlinear parameter estimation algorithm. WaSiM is a fully distributed
+ hydrological model using physically based algorithms for most of
+ the process descriptions.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-10-395-2006},
+ keywords = {GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION, WATERSHED MODEL, PARAMETERS, PEST},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kwadijk1994,
+ author = {Kwadijk, J. and Middelkoop, H.},
+ title = {Estimation of impact of climate change on the peak discharge probability
+ of the river {Rhine}},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {1994},
+ volume = {27},
+ pages = {199--224},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {RHINEFLOW is a GIS based water balance model that has been developed
+ to study the changes in the water balance compartments of the river
+ Rhine basin on a monthly time basis. The model has been designed
+ to study the sensitivity of the Rhine discharge to a climate change.
+ The calculated discharge has been calibrated and validated on the
+ period 1956 to 1980. For this period the model efficiency of RHINEFLOW
+ is between 0.74 and 0.81 both for the entire Rhine and for its tributaries.
+ Also calculated values for variations in other compartments, e.g.
+ snow storage and actual evapotranspiration, were in good agreement
+ with the measured values. Since a high correlation between monthly
+ discharge and peak discharge was found for the period 1900–1980 The
+ RHINEFLOW model is used to assess the probability of exceedence for
+ discharge peaks under possible future climate conditions. The probabilities
+ of exceedence were calculated from the conditional probabilities
+ of peak discharges for a series of 15 classes of monthly discharges.
+ Comparison of a calculated frequency distribution of high discharge
+ peaks with observed peaks in a test series showed that the method
+ performs well. Scenarios for temperature changes between 0 °C and
+ plus 4 °C and precipitation changes between plus 20% and minus 20%
+ have been applied. Within this range flood frequencies are more sensitive
+ for a precipitation change than for a temperature change. The present
+ two-year return period peak flow (6500–7000 m3/s) decreases by about
+ 6% due to a temperature rise of 4 °C; a precipitation decrease of
+ 20% leads to 30% lower two-year peaks whilst 20% precipitation increase
+ raises them by approximately 30%. Application of a lsquoBusiness
+ As Usualrsquo (BAU) and an lsquoAccelerated Policyrsquo (AP) climate
+ scenario resulted in a significant increase in probability of peak
+ flows for the BAU scenario, while for the AP scenario no significant
+ change could be found. Due to sampling errors, accurate estimations
+ of recurrence times of discharge peaksges7000 m3/s require a longer
+ sampling time series than 90 years. For management purposes the method
+ can be applied to estimate changes of probabilities of events with
+ a relatively long recurrence time.},
+ doi = {10.1007/BF01093591},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.08.05}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kwadijk1995,
+ author = {Kwadijk, J. and Rotmans, J.},
+ title = {The impact of climate change on the river {Rhine}: {A} scenario study},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {1995},
+ volume = {30},
+ pages = {397--425},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {This paper concerns the impact of human-induced global climate change
+ on the River Rhine discharge. For this purpose a model for climate
+ assessment, named ESCAPE, is coupled to a water balance model, named
+ RHINEFLOW. From climate scenarios, changes in regional annual water
+ availability and seasonal discharge in the River Rhine Basin are
+ estimated. The climate scenarios are based on greenhouse gases emissions
+ scenarios. An assessment is made for lsquobest guessrsquo seasonal
+ discharge changes and for changes in frequencies of low and high
+ discharges in the downstream reaches of the river. In addition, a
+ quantitative estimation of the uncertainties associated with this
+ guess is arrived at. The results show that the extent and range of
+ uncertainty is large with respect to the lsquobest guessrsquo changes.
+ The uncertainty range is 2–3 times larger for the Business-as-Usual
+ than for the Accelerated Policies scenarios. This large range stems
+ from the doubtful precipitation simulations from the present General
+ Circulation Models. This scenario study showed the precipitation
+ scenarios to be the key-elements within the present range of reliable
+ climate change scenarios. For the River Rhine lsquobest guessrsquo
+ changes for annual water availability are small according to both
+ scenarios. The river changes from a present combined snow-melt-rain
+ fed river to an almost entirely rain fed river. The difference between
+ present-day large average discharge in winter and the small average
+ discharge in autumn should increase for all scenarios. This trend
+ is largest in the Alpine part of the basin. Here, winter discharges
+ should increase even for scenarios forecasting annual precipitation
+ decreases. Summer discharge should decrease. lsquoBest guessrsquo
+ scenarios should lead to increased frequencies of both low and high
+ flow events in the downstream (Dutch) part of the river. The results
+ indicate changes could be larger than presently assumed in lsquoworst
+ case scenariosrsquo used by the Dutch water management authorities.},
+ doi = {10.1007/BF01093854},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.08.05}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{kyselyberanova2008,
+ author = {Kysely, J. and Beranova, R.},
+ title = {Climate--change effects on extreme precipitation in central {E}urope:
+ uncertainties of scenarios based on regional climate models},
+ journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {95},
+ pages = {361--374},
+ number = {3--4},
+ abstract = {The RCM outputs examined were obtained from the PRUDENCE project database.
+ The study was supported by the Czech Science Foundation under project
+ 205/06/1535, the 6th EC Framework Programme (CECILIA project, GOCE
+ 037005), and the Grant Agency of AS CR under project B300420601.
+ Thanks are due to I. Nemesova, Institute of Atmospheric Physics,
+ Prague, for useful comments on a previous version of the manuscript,
+ and an anonymous reviewer for suggestions that helped to improve
+ the paper.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00704-008-0014-8},
+ keywords = {INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY, CHANGE SIMULATIONS, FUTURE CHANGES, RAINFALL,
+ EVENTS, PROJECTIONS, STATISTICS, ENSEMBLE, TRENDS, SERIES},
+ tags = {Scenarios, Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{lopezmoreno2008,
+ author = {{L\'opez-Moreno}, J. and Goyette, S. and Beniston, M.},
+ title = {Climate change prediction over complex areas: spatial variability
+ of uncertainties and predictions over the {P}yrenees from a set of
+ regional climate models},
+ journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {28},
+ pages = {1535},
+ number = {11},
+ abstract = {We used a set of six regional climate models (RCMs) from PRUDENCE
+ project to analyse the uncertainties and direction and magnitude
+ of the expected changes on precipitation and temperature (B2 and
+ A2 scenarios) for the end of the 21st century in the Pyrenees, south
+ of Europe. There have been few studies of climate change effects
+ on this mountain range, though there can be noticeable impacts on
+ the economy and ecology of the region and the surrounding lowlands.
+ The analysis of the accuracy of the RCMs and the impacts of climate
+ change over the region are addressed considering the mean values
+ for the whole region, their spatial distribution patterns and the
+ inter-model variability. Previously, the creation of distributed
+ layers of temperature and precipitation from data provided by weather
+ observatories was necessary to assess the ability of RCMs to reproduce
+ the observed climate. Results show that mean biases between observed
+ climate and control runs (1960-1990) are around 20% for precipitation
+ and 1 °C for temperature. At annual basis, a mean decrease of 10.7
+ and 14.8% in precipitation, and an increase of 2.8 and 4 °C is expected
+ in the next century in the area for A2 and B2 scenarios respectively.
+ Effects of climate change will be more pronounced in the southern
+ slopes of the range (Spanish Pyrenees), and lower in the coastland
+ areas. Moreover, results on accuracy and expected changes are subject
+ to a large spatial and seasonal variability as well, as the six RCMs
+ present noticeable differences on accuracy and sensitivity to climate
+ change forcings.},
+ doi = {10.1002/joc.1645},
+ tags = {Impacts, Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{lopez-moreno2010,
+ author = {{L\'opez-Moreno}, J. and {Vicente-Serrano}, S. and {Moran-Tejeda},
+ E. and Zabalza, J. and {Lorenzo-Lacruz}, J. and {Garc\'ia-Riuz},
+ J.},
+ title = {Impact of climate evolution and land use changes on water yield in
+ the {E}bro basin},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {7},
+ pages = {2651--2681},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {In this study the climatic and hydrological trends across 88 sub-basins
+ of the Ebro River basin were analyzed for the period 1950–2006. A
+ new database of climate information and river flows for the entire
+ basin facilitated a spatially distributed assessment of climate-runoff
+ relationships. It constitutes the first assessment of water yield
+ evolution across the whole Ebro basin, a very representative example
+ of large Mediterranean rivers. The results revealed a marked decrease
+ in river discharges in most of the sub-basins. Moreover, a number
+ of changes in the seasonality of the river regime was found, resulting
+ from dam regulation and a decrease in snowpack in the headwaters.
+ Significant and positive trends in temperature were observed across
+ most of the basin, whereas most of the precipitation series showed
+ negative coefficients, although the decrease in magnitude was low.
+ The time evolution of the residuals from empirical models that relate
+ climate and runoff in each sub-basin provided evidence that climate
+ alone does not explain the observed decrease in river discharge.
+ Thus, changes in water yield are associated with an increase in evapotranspiration
+ rates in natural vegetation, growth of which has expanded as a consequence
+ of land abandonment in areas where agricultural activities and livestock
+ pressure have decreased. In the lowlands of the basin the decrease
+ in water yield has been exacerbated by increased water consumption
+ for domestic, industrial and agricultural uses. Climate projections
+ for the end of the 21st century suggest a reduced capacity for runoff
+ generation because of increasing temperature and less precipitation.
+ Thus, the maintenance of water supply under conditions of increasing
+ demand presents a challenging issue requiring appropriate coordination
+ amongst politicians and managers.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hessd-7-2651-2010},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.21}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{laga2001,
+ author = {Laga, P. and Louwye, S. and Geets, S.},
+ title = {Paloegene and {N}eogene lithostratigraphie units ({B}elgium)},
+ journal = {Geologica Belgica},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {4},
+ pages = {135--152},
+ number = {1--2},
+ abstract = {The presented lithostratigraphy of the Paleogene and Neogene deals
+ only with the formal lithostratiÂgraphic units of formation rank
+ or higher (groups). The names of the lower rank units (members and
+ beds) are just mentioned without description or other information.
+ This lithostratigraphy corresponds largely with the legend of the
+ new series of geological maps of Belgium - Flanders Region on scale
+ 1:50.000, edited since 1993.},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ refid = {LAGA2001},
+ timestamp = {2008.11.04},
+ url = {http://popups.ulg.ac.be/Geol/document.php?id=1954}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{lamb1998,
+ author = {Lamb, R. and Beven, K. and Myrab{\o}, S.},
+ title = {Use of spatially distributed water table observations to constraint
+ uncertainty in a rainfall--runoff model},
+ journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
+ year = {1998},
+ volume = {22},
+ pages = {305--317},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {The Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology
+ is used to investigate how distributed water table observations modify
+ simulation and parameter uncertainty for the hydrological model TOPMODEL,
+ applied to the Sæternbekken Minifelt catchment in Norway. Errors
+ in simulating observed flows, continuously-logged borehole water
+ levels and more extensive, spatially distributed water table depths
+ are combined using Bayes' equation within a ‘likelihood measure'
+ L. It is shown how the distributions of L for the TOPMODEL parameters
+ change as the different types of observed data are considered. These
+ distributions are also used to construct corresponding simulation
+ uncertainty bounds for flows, borehole water levels, and water table
+ depths within the spatially-extensive piezometer network. Qualitatively
+ wide uncertainty bounds for water table simulations are thought to
+ be consistent with the simplified nature of the distributed model.},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0309-1708(98)00020-7},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{lambertboer2001,
+ author = {Lambert, S. and Boer, G.},
+ title = {C{MIP1} evaluation and intercomparison of coupled climate models},
+ journal = {Climate Dynamics},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {17},
+ pages = {83--106},
+ number = {2--3},
+ abstract = {The climates simulated by 15 coupled atmosphere/ocean climate models
+ participating in the first phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison
+ Project (CMIP1) are intercompared and evaluated. Results for global
+ means, zonal averages, and geographical distributions of basic climate
+ variables are assembled and compared with observations. The current
+ generation of climate models reproduce the major features of the
+ observed distribution of the basic climate parameters, but there
+ is, nevertheless, a considerable scatter among model results and
+ between simulated and observed values. This is particularly true
+ for oceanic variables. Flux adjusted models generally produce simulated
+ climates which are in better accord with observations than do non-flux
+ adjusted models; however, some non-flux adjusted model results are
+ closer to observations than some flux adjusted model results. Other
+ model differences, such as resolution, do not appear to provide a
+ clear distinction among model results in this generation of models.
+ Many of the systematic differences (those differences common to most
+ models), evident in previous intercomparison studies are exhibited
+ also by the CMIP1 group of models although often with reduced magnitudes.
+ As is characteristic of intercomparison results, different climate
+ variables are simulated with different levels of success by different
+ models and no one model is ``best'' for all variables. There is some
+ evidence that the ``mean model'' result, obtained by averaging over
+ the ensemble of models, provides an overall best comparison to observations
+ for climatological mean fields. The model deficiencies identified
+ here do not suggest immediate remedies and the overall success of
+ the models in simulating the behaviour of the complex non-linear
+ climate system apparently depends on the slow improvement in the
+ balance of approximations that characterize a coupled climate model.
+ Of course, the results of this and similar studies provide only an
+ indication, at a particular time, of the current state and the moderate
+ but steady evolution and improvement of coupled climate models.},
+ doi = {10.1007/PL00013736},
+ tags = {Climate Models}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{lavenue1995,
+ author = {{LaVenue}, A. and {RamaRao}, B. and {de Marsily}, G. and Marietta,
+ M.},
+ title = {Pilot points methodology for automated calibration of an ensemble
+ of conditionally simulated transmissivity fields 2. {A}pplication},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1995},
+ volume = {31},
+ pages = {495--516},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {This paper, the second in a two-part series, presents the application
+ of a methodology to assess spatial variability of the transmissivities
+ within a regional aquifer in the vicinity of the Waste Isolation
+ Pilot Plant (WIPP), the Culebra dolomite. An innovative aspect of
+ this methodology is the generation of an ensemble of conditional
+ simulations of the transmissivity field which preserve the statistical
+ moments and spatial correlation structure of the measured transmissivity
+ field and honors the measured transmissivity values at their locations.
+ Each simulation is then calibrated, using an iterative procedure,
+ to match an exhaustive set of steady state and transient pressure
+ data. A fully automated inverse algorithm using pilot points as parameters
+ of calibration was employed. The application of this new methodology
+ to the Culebra dolomite flow system produced 70 conditional simulations
+ which were consistent with all the measured transmissivity and head
+ data at the site. Based on an analysis of the calibrated transmissivity
+ fields, the spatial variability of the transmissivity fields was
+ increased as a result of the calibration process. This increase is
+ in part due to the addition of a high-transmissivity feature to each
+ of the transmissivity fields which is needed to match both steady
+ state and transient state head data.},
+ doi = {10.1029/94WR02259},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.10.20}
+}
+
+@BOOK{leamer1978,
+ title = {Specification searches: {A}d hoc inference with nonexperimental data},
+ publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons},
+ year = {1978},
+ author = {Leamer, E.},
+ pages = {384},
+ address = {New York},
+ edition = {First},
+ booktitle = {Series in probability and mathematical statistics},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ refid = {LEAMER1978},
+ timestamp = {2008.11.04}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{leander2007,
+ author = {Leander, R. and Buishand, T.},
+ title = {Resampling of regional climate model output for the simulation of
+ extreme river flows},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {332},
+ pages = {487--496},
+ number = {3--4},
+ abstract = {The objective of this paper is to investigate whether resampling of
+ the output from a regional climate model (RCM) can provide realistic
+ long-duration sequences of precipitation and temperature for the
+ simulation of extreme river flows. This is important to assess the
+ impact of climate change on river flooding. Daily streamflows of
+ the river Meuse in western Europe are considered. Resampling is performed
+ with a nearest-neighbour technique that was already successfully
+ applied to the observed daily precipitation and temperature in the
+ river basin. Streamflows are simulated with the semi-distributed
+ HBV rainfall–runoff model. Two simulations of the KNMI regional climate
+ model RACMO are considered. One of these simulations is driven by
+ the global atmospheric model HadAM3H of the UK Meteorological Office
+ for the period 1961–1990 and the other by ERA40 re-analysis data.
+ Much attention is given to the bias correction of RACMO precipitation.
+ It was found that a relatively simple nonlinear correction adjusting
+ both the biases in the mean and variability led to a better reproduction
+ of observed extreme daily and multi-day precipitation amounts than
+ the commonly used linear scaling correction. This also resulted in
+ more realistic discharge extremes, suggesting that a correct representation
+ of the variability of precipitation is important for the simulation
+ of extreme flood quantiles. For the Meuse basin it is further shown
+ that it is advantageous to correct for the variability of the 10-day
+ precipitation amounts rather than that of the daily amounts. Despite
+ the remaining biases in the RCM data, the simulated extreme flood
+ quantiles correspond quite well with those obtained using observed
+ precipitation and temperature.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.08.006},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{leander2008,
+ author = {Leander, R. and Buishand, T. and {van den Hurk}, B. and {de Wit},
+ M.},
+ title = {Estimated changes in flood quantiles of the river {M}euse from resampling
+ of regional climate model output},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {351},
+ pages = {331--343},
+ number = {3--4},
+ abstract = {Precipitation and temperature data from three regional climate model
+ (RCM) experiments were used to assess the effect of climatic change
+ on the flood quantiles of the French–Belgian river Meuse. In two
+ of these experiments the RCM was driven by the global atmospheric
+ model HadAM3H of the Hadley Centre (HC), and in the other experiment
+ the RCM was driven by the global coupled atmosphere–ocean model ECHAM4/OPYC3
+ of the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI). RCM simulations
+ for the control climate (1961–1990) and the SRES-scenario A2 (2071–2100)
+ were available. The HBV rainfall–runoff model was used to simulate
+ river discharges. Long synthetic sequences of precipitation and temperature
+ were resampled from the RCM output using a nearest-neighbour technique
+ to obtain the flood quantiles for long return periods. The maxima
+ of 10-day precipitation and discharge for the winter half-year (flooding
+ season) were analysed. It was found that the changes in the extreme
+ quantiles of 10-day precipitation and discharge were highly sensitive
+ to the driving GCM. In the runs driven by HC, there was little change
+ in the most extreme quantiles, whereas the MPI-driven run projected
+ a remarkable increase. It is shown that this difference between the
+ HC- and MPI-driven runs is strongly related to the change in the
+ coefficient of variation of the 10-day precipitation amounts, which
+ decreases in the former and hardly changes in the latter. The relevance
+ of bias correction of RCM output with regard to the estimated changes
+ of flood quantiles is demonstrated.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.12.020},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{leavesley1994,
+ author = {Leavesley, G.},
+ title = {Modeling the effects of climate change on water resources--{A} review},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {1994},
+ volume = {28},
+ pages = {159--177},
+ number = {1--2},
+ abstract = {Hydrologic models provide a framework in which to conceptualize and
+ investigate the relationships between climate and water resources.
+ A review of current studies that assess the impacts of climate change
+ using hydrologic models indicates a number of problem areas common
+ to the variety of models applied. These problem areas include parameter
+ estimation, scale, model validation, climate scenario generation,
+ and data. Research needs to address these problems include development
+ of (1) a more physically based understanding of hydrologic processes
+ and their interactions; (2) parameter measurement and estimation
+ techniques for application over a range of spatial and temporal scales;
+ (3) quantitative measures of uncertainty in model parameters and
+ model results; (4) improved methodologies of climate scenario generation;
+ (5) detailed data sets in a variety of climatic and physiographic
+ regions; and (6) modular modeling tools to provide a framework to
+ facilitate interdisciplinary research. Solutions to these problems
+ would significantly improve the capability of models to assess the
+ effects of climate change.},
+ doi = {10.1007/BF01094105},
+ keywords = {RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS, SYSTEME-HYDROLOGIQUE-EUROPEEN, ATMOSPHERIC
+ CARBON-DIOXIDE, EPIC MODEL, BALANCE, SENSITIVITY, SCALE, CO2, STREAMFLOW,
+ BASIN},
+ tags = {Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{lee+al2006,
+ author = {Lee, G. and Tachikawa, Y. and Takara, K.},
+ title = {Analysis of Hydrologic Model Parameter Characteristics Using Automatic
+ Global Optimization Method},
+ journal = {Annuals of Disaster Prevention Research},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {49B},
+ pages = {67--80},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{lee+al2005,
+ author = {Lee, H. and Mcintyre, N. and Wheater, H. and Young, A.},
+ title = {Selection of conceptual models for regionalisation of the rainfall-runoff
+ relationship},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {312},
+ pages = {125--147},
+ abstract = {This study attempts to identify relationships between suitable conceptual
+ rainfall-runoff model structures and catchment types, and demonstrates
+ an objective procedure for selection of model structures for use
+ in model regionalisation studies. 12 conceptual model structures
+ have been tested on 28 UK catchments. The model structures are combinations
+ of three soil moisture accounting modules (the catchment wetness
+ index model structure, a modified Penman model structure, and a probability
+ distributed soil moisture model), and four routing models (two linear
+ reservoirs in parallel, an adaptation that represents macropore flow,
+ three linear reservoirs in parallel, and a model that includes leakage
+ from the groundwater store). The 28 catchments were selected to cover
+ a range of hydrological types based on known catchment characteristics
+ (designed combinations of catchment size, baseflow index, and annual
+ rainfall are used). The important points in objectively selecting
+ model structures for regionalisation are proposed as: performance
+ in calibration and validation, trade-off between high and low flow
+ performance, and model complexity (here represented as the number
+ of parameters). Although, the results in this study provide no evidence
+ of relationships between catchment type and preferred model structure,
+ the study indicates that out of the 12 trial model structures, the
+ following four may be the most suitable for regionalisation across
+ UK catchments: the modified Penman model with two parallel linear
+ routing reservoirs, and the probability distributed soil moisture
+ model with two parallel linear routing reservoirs, three parallel
+ linear routing reservoirs, or the macropore adaptation. (c) 2005
+ Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.02.016},
+ keywords = {rainfall-runoff model, regionalisation, model selection, UNGAUGED
+ CATCHMENTS, RESPONSE CHARACTERISTICS, HYDROLOGICAL MODELS, PARAMETERS,
+ UNCERTAINTY, CALIBRATION, STREAMFLOW, IMPACT, FLOW, SIMULATION},
+ tags = {conceptual model}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{legates1999,
+ author = {Legates, D. and {McCabe Jr.}, G.},
+ title = {Evaluating the use of ``goodness-of-fit'' measures in hydrologic
+ and hydroclimatic model validation},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1999},
+ volume = {35},
+ pages = {233--241},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {Correlation and correlation-based measures (e.g., the coefficient
+ of determination) have been widely used to evaluate the “goodness-of-fitâ€
+ of hydrologic and hydroclimatic models. These measures are oversensitive
+ to extreme values (outliers) and are insensitive to additive and
+ proportional differences between model predictions and observations.
+ Because of these limitations, correlation-based measures can indicate
+ that a model is a good predictor, even when it is not. In this paper,
+ useful alternative goodness-of-fit or relative error measures (including
+ the coefficient of efficiency and the index of agreement) that overcome
+ many of the limitations of correlation-based measures are discussed.
+ Modifications to these statistics to aid in interpretation are presented.
+ It is concluded that correlation and correlation-based measures should
+ not be used to assess the goodness-of-fit of a hydrologic or hydroclimatic
+ model and that additional evaluation measures (such as summary statistics
+ and absolute error measures) should supplement model evaluation tools.},
+ doi = {10.1029/1998WR900018},
+ keywords = {Calibration, gooness-of-fit},
+ tags = {calibration, Goodness-of-Fit}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{lehner+al2006,
+ author = {Lehner, B. and D\"oll, P. and Alcamo, J. and Henrichs, T. and Kaspar,
+ F.},
+ title = {Estimating the impact of global change on flood and drought risks
+ in {E}urope: {A} continental integrated analysis},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {75},
+ pages = {273--299},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {Most studies on the impact of climate change on regional water resources
+ focus on long-term average flows or mean water availability, and
+ they rarely take the effects of altered human water use into account.
+ When analyzing extreme events such as floods and droughts, the assessments
+ are typically confined to smaller areas and case studies. At the
+ same time it is acknowledged that climate change may severely alter
+ the risk of hydrological extremes over large regional scales, and
+ that human water use will put additional pressure on future water
+ resources. In an attempt to bridge these various aspects, this paper
+ presents a first-time continental, integrated analysis of possible
+ impacts of global change (here defined as climate and water use change)
+ on future flood and drought frequencies for the selected study area
+ of Europe. The global integrated water model WaterGAP is evaluated
+ regarding its capability to simulate high and low-flow regimes and
+ is then applied to calculate relative changes in flood and drought
+ frequencies. The results indicate large ‘critical regions’ for which
+ significant changes in flood or drought risks are expected under
+ the proposed global change scenarios. The regions most prone to a
+ rise in flood frequencies are northern to northeastern Europe, while
+ southern and southeastern Europe show significant increases in drought
+ frequencies. In the critical regions, events with an intensity of
+ today's 100-year floods and droughts may recur every 10–50 years
+ by the 2070s. Though interim and preliminary, and despite the inherent
+ uncertainties in the presented approach, the results underpin the
+ importance of developing mitigation and adaptation strategies for
+ global change impacts on a continental scale.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10584-006-6338-4},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.08.09}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{lehner2001,
+ author = {Lehner, B. and Henrichs, T. and D\"oll, P. and Alcamo, J.},
+ title = {{EuroWasser--Model-based assessment of European water resources and
+ hydrology in the face of global change. Kassel World Water Series
+ 5}},
+ institution = {Center for Environmental Systems Research},
+ year = {2001},
+ address = {{Kurt-WOlters-Strasse 3, 34109 Kassel, Germany}},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.08.10},
+ url = {http://www.usf.uni-kassel.de/cesr/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=134&Itemid=72}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{lenderink2010,
+ author = {Lenderink, G.},
+ title = {Exploring metrics of extreme daily precipitation in a large ensemble
+ of regional climate model simulations},
+ journal = {Climate Research},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {44},
+ pages = {151--166},
+ number = {2--3},
+ abstract = {The ability of a large ensemble of 15 state-of-the-art regional climate
+ models (RCMs) to simulate precipitation extremes was investigated.
+ The 99th, 99.9th and 99.99th percentiles of daily precipitation in
+ the models were compared with those in the recently released E-OBS
+ observational database for winter, spring, summer and autumn. The
+ majority of the models overestimated the values of the precipitation
+ extremes compared with E-OBS, on average by approximately 38%, but
+ some models exceeded 50%. To measure model performance, a simple
+ metric is proposed that averages a nonlinear function of the seasonal
+ biases over the European area. The sensitivity of the metric to different
+ assumptions in the construction and the quality of the observational
+ data was explored. Generally, low sensitivities of the metric to
+ spatial and seasonal averaging were found. However, large sensitivities
+ to potential biases in the observational database were found. An
+ alternative metric that measures the spatial pattern of the extremes
+ (which is not sensitive to a potential constant offset in the observational
+ data) was further explored. With this metric, the ranking between
+ the models changed substantially. However, the 2 models with the
+ worst score in the standard metric also displayed the worst scores
+ with this alternative metric. Finally, the regional climate models
+ displayed the largest biases compared with E-OBS in areas where the
+ underlying station density used in E-OBS is low, thus suggesting
+ that data quality is indeed an important issue. In summary, the results
+ show that: (1) there is no metric that guarantees an objective and
+ precise ranking or weighting of the models, (2) by exploring different
+ metrics it nevertheless appears possible to indentify models that
+ perform consistently worse than other models, and (3) the observational
+ data quality should be considered when designing and interpreting
+ metrics.},
+ doi = {10.3354/cr00946},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.01.12}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{lenderink+al2007,
+ author = {Lenderink, G. and Buishand, A. and {Van Deursen}, W.},
+ title = {Estimates of future discharges of the river {R}hine using two scenario
+ methodologies: {D}irect versus delta approach},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {11},
+ pages = {1145--1159},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {Simulations with a hydrological model for the river Rhine for the
+ present (1960-1989) and a projected future (2070-2099) climate are
+ discussed. The hydrological model (RhineFlow) is driven by meteorological
+ data from a 90-years (ensemble of three 30-years) simulation with
+ the HadRM3H regional climate model for both present-day and future
+ climate (A2 emission scenario). Simulation of present-day discharges
+ is realistic provided that (1) the HadRM3H temperature and precipitation
+ are corrected for biases, and (2) the potential evapotranspiration
+ is derived from temperature only. Different methods are used to simulate
+ discharges for the future climate: one is based on the direct model
+ output of the future climate run (direct approach), while the other
+ is based on perturbation of the present-day HadRM3H time series (delta
+ approach). Both methods predict a similar response in the mean annual
+ discharge, an increase of 30% in winter and a decrease of 40% in
+ summer. However, predictions of extreme flows differ significantly,
+ with increases of 10% in flows with a return period of 100 years
+ in the direct approach and approximately 30% in the delta approach.
+ A bootstrap method is used to estimate the uncertainties related
+ to the sample size (number of years simulated) in predicting changes
+ in extreme flows.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-11-1145-2007},
+ keywords = {climate change impact, regional climate model, extreme river flows,
+ REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL, EUROPE, SIMULATIONS, TRENDS, WATER},
+ tags = {Scenarios, Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{lenhart+al2002,
+ author = {Lenhart, T. and Eckhardt, K. and Fohrer, N. and Freede, H.},
+ title = {Comparison of two different approaches of sensitivity analysis},
+ journal = {Physics and Chemistry of the Earth},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {27},
+ pages = {645--654},
+ abstract = {Due to spatial variability, budget constraints or access difficulties
+ model input parameters always are uncertain to some extent. Therefore
+ the knowledge of sensitive input parameters is beneficial for model
+ development and application. It can lead to a better understanding
+ and to better estimated values and thus reduced uncertainty.},
+ doi = {S1474-7065(02)00049-9},
+ keywords = {sensitivity analysis, uncertainty, model calibration, water quality,
+ distributed models, SYSTEMS},
+ tags = {Sensitivity Analysis, SWAT}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{li+al2011,
+ author = {Li, F. and Collins, W. and Wehener, M. and Williamson, D. and Olson,
+ J. and Algieri, C.},
+ title = {{Impact of horizontal resolution on simulation of precipitation extremes
+ in an aqua-planet version of Community Atmospheric Model (CAM3)}},
+ journal = {Tellus {A}},
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {63},
+ pages = {884--892},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {One key question regarding current climate models is whether the projection
+ of climate extremes converges to a realistic representation as the
+ spatial and temporal resolutions of the model are increased. Ideally
+ the model extreme statistics should approach a fixed distribution
+ once the resolutions are commensurate with the characteristic length
+ and time scales of the processes governing the formation of the extreme
+ phenomena of interest. In this study, a series of AGCM runs with
+ idealized ‘aquaplanet-steady-state’ boundary conditions have been
+ performed with the Community Atmosphere Model CAM3 to investigate
+ the effect of horizontal resolution on climate extreme simulations.
+ The use of the aquaplanet framework highlights the roles of model
+ physics and dynamics and removes any apparent convergence in extreme
+ statistics due to better resolution of surface boundary conditions
+ and other external inputs. Assessed at a same large spatial scale,
+ the results show that the horizontal resolution and time step have
+ strong effects on the simulations of precipitation extremes. The
+ horizontal resolution has a much stronger impact on precipitation
+ extremes than on mean precipitation. Updrafts are strongly correlated
+ with extreme precipitation at tropics at all the resolutions, while
+ positive low-tropospheric temperature anomalies are associated with
+ extreme precipitation at mid-latitudes.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0870.2011.00544.x},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.12.01}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{li+al2010,
+ author = {Lu Li and Jun Xia and Chong-Yu Xu and V.P. Singh},
+ title = {Evaluation of the subjective factors of the GLUE method and comparison
+ with the formal Bayesian method in uncertainty assessment of hydrological
+ models},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {390},
+ pages = {210--221},
+ number = {3–-4},
+ abstract = {Summary Quantification of uncertainty of hydrological models has attracted
+ much attention in the recent hydrological literature. Different results
+ and conclusions have been reported which result from the use of different
+ methods with different assumptions. In particular, the disagreement
+ between the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE)
+ and the Bayesian methods for assessing the uncertainty in conceptual
+ watershed modelling has been widely discussed. What has been mostly
+ criticized is the subjective choice as regards the influence of threshold
+ value, number of sample simulations, and likelihood function in the
+ GLUE method. In this study the impact of threshold values and number
+ of sample simulations on the uncertainty assessment of GLUE is systematically
+ evaluated, and a comprehensive evaluation about the posterior distribution,
+ parameter and total uncertainty estimated by GLUE and a formal Bayesian
+ approach using the Metropolis Hasting (MH) algorithm are performed
+ for two well-tested conceptual hydrological models (WASMOD and DTVGM)
+ in an arid basin from North China. The results show that in the GLUE
+ method, the posterior distribution of parameters and the 95% confidence
+ interval of the simulated discharge are sensitive to the choice of
+ the threshold value as measured by the acceptable samples rate (ASR).
+ However, when the threshold value in the GLUE method is high enough
+ (i.e., when the ASR value is smaller than 0.1%), the posterior distribution
+ of parameters, the 95% confidence interval of simulated discharge
+ and the percent of observations bracketed by the 95% confidence interval
+ (P-95CI) for the GLUE method approach those values estimated by the
+ Bayesian method for both hydrological models. Second, in the GLUE
+ method, the insufficiency of number of sample simulations will influence
+ the maximum Nash–Sutcliffe (MNS) efficiency value when ASR is fixed.
+ However, as soon as the number of sample simulations increases to
+ 2 Ã— 104 for WASMOD and to 8 Ã— 104 for the DTVGM
+ model the influence of number of sample simulations on the model
+ simulation results becomes of minor importance. Third, the uncertainty
+ in simulated discharges resulting from parameter uncertainty is much
+ smaller than that resulting from the model structure uncertainty
+ for both hydrological models. Fourth, the goodness of model fit as
+ measured by the maximum Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency value is nearly
+ the same for the GLUE and the Bayesian methods for both hydrological
+ models. Thus this study provides useful information on the uncertainty
+ assessment of hydrological models.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.06.044},
+ issn = {0022-1694},
+ keywords = {Uncertainty assessment}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{li2009,
+ author = {Li, X. and Tsai, F.},
+ title = {Bayesian model averaging for groundwater head prediction and uncertainty
+ analysis using multimodel and multimethod},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {45},
+ pages = {W09403},
+ abstract = {This study introduces a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method that
+ incorporates multiple groundwater models and multiple hydraulic conductivity
+ estimation methods to predict groundwater heads and evaluate prediction
+ uncertainty. BMA is able to distinguish prediction uncertainty arising
+ from individual models, between models, and between methods. Moreover,
+ BMA is able to identify unfavorable models even though they may present
+ small prediction uncertainty. Uncertainty propagation, from model
+ parameter uncertainty to model prediction uncertainty, can also be
+ studied through BMA. This study adopts a variance window to obtain
+ reasonable BMA weights for the best models, which are usually exaggerated
+ by Occam's window. Results from a synthetic case study show that
+ BMA with the variance window can provide better head prediction than
+ individual models, or at least can obtain better predictions close
+ to the best model. The BMA was applied to predicting groundwater
+ heads in the “1500-foot†sand of the Baton Rouge area in Louisiana.
+ Head prediction uncertainty was assessed by the BMA prediction variance.
+ BMA confirms that large head prediction uncertainty occurs at areas
+ lacking head observations and hydraulic conductivity measurements.
+ Further study in these areas is necessary to reduce head prediction
+ uncertainty.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2008WR007488},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.09.18}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{li+al2009,
+ author = {Li, Z. and Xu, Z. and Shao, Q. and Yang, J.},
+ title = {Parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis of {SWAT} model in
+ upper reaches of the {H}eihe river basin},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {23},
+ pages = {2744--2753},
+ number = {19},
+ abstract = {Heihe river basin, the second largest inland river basin in China,
+ has attracted more attention in China due to the ever increasing
+ water resources and eco-environmental problems. In this article,
+ SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool; http://www.brc.tamus.edu/swat/)
+ model was applied to upper reaches of the basin for better understanding
+ of the hydrological process over the watershed. Parameter uncertainty
+ and its contribution on model simulation are the main foci. In model
+ calibration, the aggregate parameters instead of the original parameters
+ in SWAT model were used to reduce the computing effort. The Bayesian
+ approach was employed for parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis
+ because its posterior distribution provides not only parameter estimation
+ but also uncertainty analysis without normality assumption. The results
+ indicated that: (1) SWAT model performs satisfactorily in this watershed
+ as a whole, although some low and high flows were under- or overestimated,
+ particularly in dry (e.g. 1991) and wet (e.g. 1996) years; (2) all
+ calibrated parameters were not normally distributed (essentially
+ positively or negatively skewed) and the parameter uncertainties
+ were relatively small; and (3) the contributions of parameter uncertainty
+ on model simulation uncertainty were relatively small},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.7371},
+ keywords = {SWAT, parameter uncertainty, simulation uncertainty, aggregate parameter,
+ Bayesian method},
+ tags = {SWAT, Uncertainty, Thesis}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{liang2001,
+ author = {Liang, F. and Truong, Y. and Wong, W.},
+ title = {Automatic {B}ayesian model averaging for linear regression and application
+ in {B}ayesian curve fitting},
+ journal = {Statistica Sinica},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {11},
+ pages = {1005--1029},
+ number = {4},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{liang+al2010,
+ author = {Liang, S. and Ge, S. and Wan, L. and Zhang, J.},
+ title = {Can climate change cause the {Y}ellow {R}iver to dry up?},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {46},
+ pages = {W02505},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {The source region of the Yellow River, China, has experienced eco-environmental
+ deterioration in recent decades. The Yellow River discharge has reduced
+ to zero numerous times since 1960, which has left a devastating impact
+ on water resources and ecosystems downstream. Seeking to understand
+ the causes of drying up, we analyze the records of discharge, temperature,
+ and precipitation and explore the linkages among them. Using wavelet
+ analysis, we show that the Yellow River discharge represents a comprehensive
+ response to climatic variations in temperature and precipitation.
+ We suggest that the discharge is best explained by variations in
+ temperature over a 35--50 year trend and precipitation over periods
+ of less than 10 years. Zero discharge events can be quantitatively
+ correlated to periods of warming and reduced precipitation. Findings
+ of this study may have a broad implication in assessing how water
+ resources respond to climate changes.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2009WR007971},
+ tags = {Climate Change}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{limbrick+al2000,
+ author = {Limbrick, K.},
+ title = {Assessing the potential impacts of various climate change scenarios
+ on the hydrological regime of the {R}iver {K}ennet at {T}heale, {B}erkshire,
+ south-central {E}ngland, {UK}: an application and evaluation of the
+ new semi--distributed model, {INCA}},
+ journal = {The Science of The Total Environment},
+ year = {2000},
+ volume = {251-252},
+ pages = {539--555},
+ number = {1--3},
+ abstract = {A new semi-distributed integrated nitrogen in catchments (INCA) model
+ was used to attempt to assess the potential impacts of several recent
+ Hadley Centre climate change scenarios on the hydrological flow regime
+ of the entire River Kennet catchment to Theale, south-central England,
+ UK. The climatically and hydrologically anomalous period 1985--1995
+ was used for baseline data in an attempt to: (1) represent any possible
+ future climatic or hydrological variability not available from scenario
+ use alone; and (2) attain maximum possible model calibration validity
+ under future climates by simulating extremes of within-year hydrological
+ variability. Substantial reductions in total annual runoff occurred,
+ with an average reduction of 18.97%. Summer and late autumn soil
+ moisture deficits (SMDs) increased in intensity, and were also found
+ to persist for longer periods into autumn and (occasionally) winter.
+ A generally enhanced hydrological regime of the River Kennet was
+ simulated, with increased seasonality overall. A greater percentage
+ of flow was observed to occur in spring and (occasionally) winter.
+ Month-to-month variability of flow was discovered to be greater than
+ annual changes. An average reduction in minimum annual flows of 46.03%
+ occurred. Implications for catchment ecology and water resource requirements
+ are briefly discussed. An evaluation of the new INCA model’s performance
+ as a tool for climate change impacts assessment is made},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0048-9697(00)00394-6},
+ keywords = { River Kennet, Catchment hydrology, Hydrological regime, INCA, Hydrologically
+ effective rainfall (HER), Soil moisture deficit (SMD), Runoff, Meteorological
+ Office rainfall and evaporation calculation system (MORECS), Groundwater
+ recharge, Chalk aquifer, Water resources},
+ tags = {Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{linradcliffe2006,
+ author = {Lin, Z. and Radcliffe, D.},
+ title = {Automatic calibration and predictive uncertainty analysis of a semidistributed
+ watershed model},
+ journal = {Vadose Zone Journal},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {5},
+ pages = {248--260},
+ abstract = {Semidistributed models are commonly calibrated manually, but software
+ for automatic calibration is now available. We present a two-stage
+ routine for automatic calibration of the semidistributed watershed
+ model Soil and Water Assessment Tool ( SWAT) that finds the best
+ values for the model parameters, preserves spatial variability in
+ essential parameters, and leads to a measure of the model prediction
+ uncertainty. In the first stage, a modified global Shuffled Complex
+ Evolution (SCE-UA) method was employed to find the "best'' values
+ for the lumped model parameters. In the second stage, the spatial
+ variability of the original model parameters was restored and a local
+ search method ( a variant of Levenberg - Marquart method) was used
+ to find a more distributed set of parameters using the results of
+ the previous stage as starting values. A method called "regularization''
+ was adopted to prevent the parameters from taking extreme values.
+ In addition, we applied a nonlinear calibration-constrained method
+ to develop confidence intervals for annual and 7-d average flow predictions.
+ We calibrated stream flow in the Etowah River measured at Canton,
+ GA ( a watershed area of 1580 km(2)) for the years 1983 to 1992 and
+ used the years 1993 to 2001 for validation. The Parameter Estimator
+ ( PEST) software was used to conduct the two-stage automatic calibration
+ and prediction uncertainty analysis. Calibration for daily and monthly
+ flow produced a very good fit to the measured data. Nash-Sutcliffe
+ coefficients for daily and monthly flow over the calibration period
+ were 0.60 and 0.86, respectively. They were 0.61 and 0.87, respectively,
+ for the validation period. The nonlinear prediction uncertainty analysis
+ worked well for long-term ( annual) flow in that our prediction confidence
+ intervals included or were very near to the observed flow for most
+ years. It did not work well for short-term (7-d average) flows in
+ that the prediction confidence intervals did not include the observed
+ flow, especially for low and high flow conditions.},
+ doi = {10.2136/vzj2005.0025},
+ keywords = {RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS, GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION, HYDROLOGIC-MODELS, PARAMETER-ESTIMATION,
+ ALGORITHM, MULTIPLE, SCHEME},
+ tags = {SWAT, Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{telinde+al2011,
+ author = {te Linde, A. H. and Bubeck, P. and Dekkers, J. E. C. and de Moel,
+ H. and Aerts, J. C. J. H.},
+ title = {Future flood risk estimates along the river Rhine},
+ journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Science},
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {11},
+ pages = {459--473},
+ number = {2},
+ doi = {10.5194/nhess-11-459-2011}
+}
+
+@BOOK{lindley2006,
+ title = {Understanding uncertainty},
+ publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons},
+ year = {2006},
+ author = {Lindley, D.},
+ pages = {272},
+ address = {New Jersey},
+ edition = {First},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.03.26}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{liu+al2005,
+ author = {Liu, B. and Wang, L. and Jin, {Y-H} and Tang, F. and Huang, {D-X}},
+ title = {Improved particle swarm optimization combined with chaos},
+ journal = {Chaos, Solitons \& Fractals},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {25},
+ pages = {1261},
+ number = {5},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.chaos.2004.11.095},
+ tags = {Calibration, PSO}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{liu2006,
+ author = {Liu, G. and Zhang, D. and Lu, Z.},
+ title = {Stochastic uncertainty analysis for unconfined flow layers},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {42},
+ pages = {W09412},
+ abstract = {A new stochastic approach proposed by Zhang and Lu (2004), called
+ the Karhunen-Loeve decomposition-based moment equation (KLME), has
+ been extended to solving nonlinear, unconfined flow problems in randomly
+ heterogeneous aquifers. This approach is on the basis of an innovative
+ combination of Karhunen-Loeve decomposition, polynomial expansion,
+ and perturbation methods. The random log-transformed hydraulic conductivity
+ field (lnK S ) is first expanded into a series in terms of orthogonal
+ Gaussian standard random variables with their coefficients obtained
+ as the eigenvalues and eigenfunctions of the covariance function
+ of lnK S . Next, head h is decomposed as a perturbation expansion
+ series ?h (m), where h (m) represents the mth-order head term with
+ respect to the standard deviation of lnK S . Then h (m) is further
+ expanded into a polynomial series of m products of orthogonal Gaussian
+ standard random variables whose coefficients h i 1,i 2,…,i m (m)
+ are deterministic and solved sequentially from low to high expansion
+ orders using MODFLOW-2000. Finally, the statistics of head and flux
+ are computed using simple algebraic operations on h i 1,i 2,…,i m
+ (m). A series of numerical test results in 2-D and 3-D unconfined
+ flow systems indicated that the KLME approach is effective in estimating
+ the mean and (co)variance of both heads and fluxes and requires much
+ less computational effort as compared to the traditional Monte Carlo
+ simulation technique.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2005WR004766},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{liuhan2010,
+ author = {Liu, J. and Han, D.},
+ title = {Indices for calibration data selection of the rainfall-runoff model},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {46},
+ pages = {W04512},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {The identification of rainfall-runoff models requires selection of
+ appropriate data for model calibration. Traditionally, hydrologists
+ use rules of thumb to select a certain period of hydrological data
+ to calibrate the models (i.e., 6 year data). There are no numerical
+ indices to help hydrologists to quantitatively select the calibration
+ data. There are two questions: how long should the calibration data
+ be (e.g., 6 months), and from which period should the data be selected
+ (e.g., which 6 month data should be selected)? In this study, some
+ indices for the selection of calibration data with adequate lengths
+ and appropriate durations are proposed by examining the spectral
+ properties of data sequences before the calibration work. With the
+ validation data determined beforehand, we assume that the more similarity
+ the calibration data set bears to the validation set, the better
+ should the performance of the rainfall-runoff model be after calibration.
+ Three approaches are applied to reveal the similarity between the
+ validation and calibration data sets: flow-duration curve, Fourier
+ transform, and wavelet analysis. Data sets used for calibration are
+ generated by designing three scenario groups with fixed lengths of
+ 6, 12, and 24 months, respectively, from 8 year continuous observations
+ in the Brue catchment of the United Kingdom. Scenarios in each group
+ have different starting times and thus various durations with specific
+ hydrological characteristics. With a predetermined 18 month validation
+ set and the rainfall-runoff model chosen to be the probability distributed
+ model, useful indices are produced for certain scenario groups by
+ all three approaches. The information cost function, an entropy-like
+ function based on the decomposition results of the discrete wavelet
+ transform, is found to be the most effective index for the calibration
+ data selection. The study demonstrates that the information content
+ of the calibration data is more important than the data length; thus
+ 6 month data may provide more useful information than longer data
+ series. This is important for hydrological modelers since shorter
+ and more useful data help hydrologists to build models more efficiently
+ and effectively. The idea presented in this paper has also shown
+ potential in enhancing the efficiency of calibration data utilization,
+ especially for data-limited catchments},
+ doi = {10.1029/2009WR008668},
+ keywords = {FDC, DWT, Fourier, Validation, Calibration length, Calibration period},
+ tags = {Calibration, FDC, Goodness-of-Fit}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{liu+al2009a,
+ author = {Liu, X. and Wang, Q. and Liu, H. and Li, L.},
+ title = {Particle Swarm Optimization with Dynamic Inertia Weight and Mutation},
+ journal = {Genetic and Evolutionary Computing, International Conference on},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {0},
+ pages = {620--623},
+ number = {0},
+ abstract = {The Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) plunges into the local minimum
+ easily. In order to overcome this shortcoming, we propose an improved
+ PSO algorithm with the features of linearly decreasing of inertia
+ weight and the re-initialization of the particle when it gets stagnated.
+ The improved PSO is a local PSO and its topology is wheels. From
+ the experimental results of three non-linear testing functions and
+ a problem with non-convex solution space, it is obvious that the
+ improved PSO algorithm greatly enhances the rate of global convergence.},
+ address = {Los Alamitos, CA, USA},
+ doi = {http://doi.ieeecomputersociety.org/10.1109/WGEC.2009.99},
+ isbn = {978-0-7695-3899-0},
+ keywords = {particle swarm optimization, inertia weight, convergence rate, constrained
+ layout optimization},
+ publisher = {IEEE Computer Society},
+ tags = {Calibration, PSO}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{liu+al2009b,
+ author = {Liu, Y. and Freer, J. and Beven, K. and Matgen, P.},
+ title = {Towards a limits of acceptability approach to the calibration of
+ hydrological models: {E}xtending observation error},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {367},
+ pages = {93--103},
+ number = {1-2},
+ abstract = {Within the GLUE methodology, there are a number of advantages of taking
+ a limits of acceptability approach to model evaluation for non-ideal
+ applications where the strong assumptions of statistical identification
+ might be difficult to justify. However, there is a question of how
+ the limits of acceptability might be specified in a way that reflects
+ the different sources of uncertainty in the modeling process. Here,
+ a novel method for identifying behavioural models in an extended
+ GLUE methodology is developed and applied to an application of Dynamic
+ TOPMODEL to the Attert catchment in Luxemburg with semi-distributed
+ inputs to nested sub-catchments. The results raise some important
+ issues about testing model structures as hypotheses of catchment
+ responses.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.01.016},
+ keywords = {GLUE, Equifinality, Dynamic TOPMODEL, Limits of acceptability, Hypothesis
+ testing},
+ tags = {Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{liu2007,
+ author = {Liu, Y. and Gupta, H.},
+ title = {Uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: {T}oward an integrated data assimilation
+ framework},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {43},
+ pages = {W07401},
+ abstract = {Despite significant recent developments in computational power and
+ distributed hydrologic modeling, the issue of how to adequately address
+ the uncertainty associated with hydrological predictions remains
+ a critical and challenging one. This issue needs to be properly addressed
+ for hydrological modeling to realize its maximum practical potential
+ in environmental decision-making processes. Arguably, the key to
+ properly addressing hydrologic uncertainty is to understand, quantify,
+ and reduce uncertainty involved in hydrologic modeling in a cohesive,
+ systematic manner. Although general principles and techniques on
+ addressing hydrologic uncertainty are emerging in the literature,
+ there exist no well-accepted guidelines about how to actually implement
+ these principles and techniques in various hydrologic settings in
+ an integrated manner. This paper reviews, in relevant detail, the
+ common data assimilation methods that have been used in hydrologic
+ modeling to address problems of state estimation, parameter estimation,
+ and system identification. In particular, the paper discusses concepts,
+ methods, and issues involved in hydrologic data assimilation from
+ a systems perspective. An integrated hierarchical framework is proposed
+ for pursuing hydrologic data assimilation in several progressive
+ steps to maximally reduce uncertainty in hydrologic predictions.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2006WR005756},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.02.22}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{liu2005,
+ author = {Liu, Z. and Martina, M. and Todini, E.},
+ title = {Flood forecasting using fully distributed model: {A}pplication of
+ the {TOPKAPI} model to the upper {X}ixian catchment},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {9},
+ pages = {347--364},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {TOPKAPI is a physically-based, fully distributed hydrological model
+ with a simple and parsimonious parameterisation. The original TOPKAPI
+ is structured around five modules that represent evapotranspiration,
+ snowmelt, soil water, surface water and channel water, respectively.
+ Percolation to deep soil layers was ignored in the old version of
+ the TOPKAPI model since it was not important in the basins to which
+ the model was originally applied. Based on published literature,
+ this study developed a new version of the TOPKAPI model, in which
+ the new modules of interception, infiltration, percolation, groundwater
+ flow and lake/reservoir routing are included. This paper presents
+ an application study that makes a first attempt to derive information
+ from public domains through the internet on the topography, soil
+ and land use types for a case study Chinese catchment - the Upper
+ Xixian catchment in Huaihe River with an area of about 10000 km2,
+ and apply a new version of TOPKAPI to the catchment for flood simulation.
+ A model parameter value adjustment was performed using six months
+ of the 1998 dataset. Calibration did not use a curve fitting process,
+ but was chiefly based upon moderate variations of parameter values
+ from those estimated on physical grounds, as is common in traditional
+ calibration. The hydrometeorological dataset of 2002 was then used
+ to validate the model, both against the outlet discharge as well
+ as at an internal gauging station. Finally, to complete the model
+ performance analysis, parameter uncertainty and its effects on predictive
+ uncertainty were also assessed by estimating a posterior parameter
+ probability density via Bayesian inference.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-9-347-2005},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{llopisalbert2009,
+ author = {{Llopis-Albert}, C. and Capilla, J.},
+ title = {Gradual conditioning of non--{G}aussian transmissivity fields to
+ flow and mass transport data: 2. {D}emonstration on a synthetic aquifer},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {371},
+ pages = {53--65},
+ number = {1--4},
+ abstract = {In the first paper of this series a methodology for the generation
+ of non-Gaussian transmissivity fields conditional to flow, mass transport
+ and secondary data was presented. This methodology, referred to as
+ the gradual conditioning (GC) method, constitutes a new and advanced
+ powerful approach in the field of stochastic inverse modelling. It
+ is based on gradually changing an initial transmissivity (T) field,
+ conditioned only to T and secondary data, to honour flow and transport
+ measured data. The process is based on combining the initial T field
+ with other seed T fields in successive iterations maintaining the
+ stochastic structure of T, previously inferred from data. The iterative
+ procedure involves the minimization of a penalty function which depends
+ on one parameter, and is made up by the weighted summation of the
+ square deviations among flow and/or transport variables, and the
+ corresponding known measurements. The GC method leads gradually to
+ a final simulated field, uniformly converging to a better reproduction
+ of conditioning data as more iterations are performed. The methodology
+ is now demonstrated on a synthetic aquifer in a non-multi-Gaussian
+ stochastic framework. First, an initial T field is simulated, and
+ retained as reference T field. With prescribed head boundary conditions,
+ transient flow created by an abstraction well and a mass solute plume
+ migrating through the formation, a long-term and large scale hypothetical
+ tracer experiment is run in this reference synthetic aquifer. Then
+ T, piezometric head (h), solute concentration (c) and travel time
+ (?) are sampled at a limited number of points, and for different
+ time steps where applicable. Using this limited amount of information
+ the GC method is applied, conditioning to different sets of these
+ sampled data and model results are compared to those from the reference
+ synthetic aquifer. Results demonstrate the ability and robustness
+ of the GC method to include different types of data without adopting
+ any Gaussian assumptions, and its high potential to be used together
+ with the Monte Carlo method for uncertainty analysis of flow and
+ mass transport model results. Moreover, the simplicity of the formulation
+ of the method, based on forward flow and mass transport solvers,
+ the flexibility of the stochastic random definition required, and
+ the simple form of the minimization problems solved during the iterative
+ procedure, make this a very valuable tool and robust alternative
+ to other methods for real applications.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.03.014},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.10.20}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{lo+al2010,
+ author = {Lo, {M-H} and Famiglietti, J. and Yeh, P. and Syed, T.},
+ title = {Improving parameter estimation and water table depth simulation in
+ a land surface model using {GRACE} water storage and estimated base
+ flow data},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {46},
+ pages = {W05517},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {Several previous studies have shown the significance of representing
+ shallow groundwater in land surface model (LSM) simulations. However,
+ optimal methods for parameter estimation in order to realistically
+ simulate water table depth have received little attention. The recent
+ availability of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) water
+ storage data provides a unique opportunity to constrain LSM simulations
+ of terrestrial hydrology. In this study, we incorporate both GRACE
+ (storage) and estimated base flow (flux) data in the calibration
+ of LSM parameters, and demonstrate the advantages gained from this
+ approach using a Monte Carlo simulation framework. This approach
+ improves parameter estimation and reduces the uncertainty of water
+ table simulations in the LSM. Using the optimal parameter set identified
+ from the multiobjective calibration, water table simulation can be
+ improved due to close dependence of both base flow and total subsurface
+ water storage on the water table depth. Moreover, it is shown that
+ parameters calibrated from short-term (2003{--}2005) GRACE and base
+ flow data can be validated using simulations for the periods of 1984{--}1998
+ and 2006{--}2007, which implies that the proposed multiobjective
+ calibration strategy is robust. More important, this study has demonstrated
+ the potential for the joint use of routinely available GRACE water
+ storage data and streamflow records to constrain LSM simulations
+ at the global scale},
+ doi = {10.1029/2009WR007855},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{loaiciga1987,
+ author = {Loaiciga, H. and Mari\~no, M.},
+ title = {Parameter estimation in grondwater; {C}lassical, {B}ayesian, and
+ deterministic assumptions and their impact on management policies},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1987},
+ volume = {23},
+ pages = {1027--1035},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {This work deals with a theoretical analysis of parameter uncertainty
+ in groundwater management models. The importance of adopting classical,
+ Bayesian, or deterministic distribution assumptions on parameters
+ is examined from a mathematical standpoint. In the classical case,
+ the parameters (e.g., hydraulic conductivities or storativities)
+ are assumed fixed (i.e., nonrandom) but unknown. The Bayesian assumption
+ considers the parameters as random entities with some probability
+ distribution. The deterministic case, also called certainty equivalence,
+ assumes that the parameters are fixed and known. Previous work on
+ the inverse problem has emphasized the numerical solution for parameter
+ estimates with the subsequent aim to use them in the simulation of
+ field variables. In this paper, the role of parameter uncertainty
+ (measured by their statistical variability) in groundwater management
+ decisions is investigated. It is shown that the classical, Bayesian,
+ and deterministic assumptions lead to analytically different management
+ solutions. Numerically, the difference between such solutions depends
+ upon the covariance of the parameter estimates. The theoretical analyses
+ of this work show the importance of specifying the proper distributional
+ assumption on groundwater parameters, as well as the need for using
+ efficient and statistically consistent methods to solve the inverse
+ problem. The distributional assumptions on groundwater parameters
+ and the covariance of their sample estimators are shown to be the
+ dominant parameter uncertainty factors affecting groundwater management
+ solutions. An example illustrates the conceptual findings of this
+ work.},
+ doi = {10.1029/WR023i006p01027},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{lorenz2010,
+ author = {Lorenz, P. and Jacob, D.},
+ title = {{Validation of temperature trends in the ENSEMBLES regional climate
+ model runs driven by ERA40}},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {44},
+ pages = {167--177},
+ number = {2--3},
+ abstract = {In the EU-Project ENSEMBLES, a major objective was the development
+ of a weighting system for regional climate models (RCMs) based on
+ the ability of the RCMs to reproduce observed characteristics of
+ important atmospheric variables. Within this context, a suite of
+ state-of-the-art RCMs was employed for the creation of probabilistic
+ future regional climate change scenarios for Europe. Among others,
+ one measure to determine the individual RCM-weights is their ability
+ to reproduce the observed trends in 2 m temperature in the reanalysis
+ (ERA40)-driven experiments for the period 1960–2000. As the reference,
+ we used the new ENSEMBLES observational gridded dataset for Europe
+ (E-OBS). As additional datasets for comparisons, we also used the
+ near-surface temperature datasets from the CRU observations and from
+ the ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The analysis was performed for
+ the land fraction of 8 different European regions, the so-called
+ PRUDENCE regions defined within the PRUDENCE project (http://prudence.dmi.dk).
+ Annual and seasonal linear trends in near-surface temperature were
+ computed for each ENSEMBLES RCM, the E-OBS dataset, and for the additional
+ datasets mentioned above. In all regions, the computed linear temperature
+ trends based on annual mean temperatures showed smaller values for
+ the RCMs and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis than for both observational
+ datasets, and in most regions also smaller values than for the ERA40
+ reanalysis dataset. Depending on the magnitude of the difference
+ in linear trends between the individual RCMs and the E-OBS dataset,
+ skill scores were assigned to each RCM. The resulting skill scores
+ were of similar magnitude (0.7–0.9) for the different models and
+ regions (except for Scandinavia, which had lower skill scores around
+ 0.6–0.8). Spatially aggregated for all of Europe, and combined from
+ annual and seasonal into one value for each RCM, these skill scores
+ were included in the general ENSEMBLES RCM weighting system},
+ doi = {10.3354/cr00973},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.02.02}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{madadgar2012,
+ author = {Madadgar, S. and Moradkhani, H.},
+ title = {Drought analysis under climate change using copula},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrologic Engineering},
+ year = {2012},
+ volume = {in press},
+ doi = {10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000532},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.07.05}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{madiganraftery1994,
+ author = {Madigan, D. and Raftery, A.},
+ title = {Model selection and accounting for model uncertainty in graphical
+ models using {O}ccam's window},
+ journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
+ year = {1994},
+ volume = {89},
+ pages = {1535--1546},
+ number = {428},
+ abstract = {We consider the problem of model selection and accounting for model
+ uncertainty in high-dimensional contingency tables, motivated by
+ expert system applications. The approach most used currently is a
+ stepwise strategy guided by tests based on approximate asymptotic
+ P values leading to the selection of a single model; inference is
+ then conditional on the selected model. The sampling properties of
+ such a strategy are complex, and the failure to take account of model
+ uncertainty leads to underestimation of uncertainty about quantities
+ of interest. In principle, a panacea is provided by the standard
+ Bayesian formalism that averages the posterior distributions of the
+ quantity of interest under each of the models, weighted by their
+ posterior model probabilities. Furthermore, this approach is optimal
+ in the sense of maximizing predictive ability. But this has not been
+ used in practice, because computing the posterior model probabilities
+ is hard and the number of models is very large (often greater than
+ 101 ). We argue that the standard Bayesian formalism is unsatisfactory
+ and propose an alternative Bayesian approach that, we contend, takes
+ full account of the true model uncertainty by averaging over a much
+ smaller set of models. An efficient search algorithm is developed
+ for finding these models. We consider two classes of graphical models
+ that arise in expert systems: the recursive causal models and the
+ decomposable log-linear models. For each of these, we develop efficient
+ ways of computing exact Bayes factors and hence posterior model probabilities.
+ For the decomposable log-linear models, this is based on properties
+ of chordal graphs and hyper-Markov prior distributions and the resultant
+ calculations can be carried out locally. The end product is an overall
+ strategy for model selection and accounting for model uncertainty
+ that searches efficiently through the very large classes of models
+ involved. Three examples are given. The first two concern data sets
+ that have been analyzed by several authors in the context of model
+ selection. The third addresses a urological diagnostic problem. In
+ each example, our model averaging approach provides better out- of-sample
+ predictive performance than any single model that might reasonably
+ have been selected},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23},
+ url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2291017}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{madsen2003,
+ author = {Madsen, H.},
+ title = {Parameter estimation in distributed hydrological catchment modelling
+ using automatic calibration with multiple objectives},
+ journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {26},
+ pages = {205--216},
+ number = {2},
+ doi = {DOI: 10.1016/S0309-1708(02)00092-1},
+ issn = {0309-1708},
+ keywords = {Hydrological modelling, Distributed model, MIKE SHE, Parameter estimation,
+ Automatic calibration, Multiple objectives},
+ tags = {Calibration},
+ url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VCF-47DT88V-6/2/0167372144b8e9b4a2464afb17129985}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{madsen2000,
+ author = {Madsen, H.},
+ title = {Automatic calibration of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model using
+ multiple objectives},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2000},
+ volume = {235},
+ pages = {276--288},
+ abstract = {Formulation of an automatic calibration strategy for the MIKE 11/NAM
+ rainfall-runoff model is outlined. The calibration scheme includes
+ optimisation of multiple objectives that measure different aspects
+ of the hydrograph: (1) overall water balance, (2) overall shape of
+ the hydrograph, (3) peak flows, and (4) low flows. An automatic optimisation
+ procedure based on the shuffled complex evolution algorithm is introduced
+ for solving the multi-objective calibration problem. A test example
+ is presented that illustrates the principles and implications of
+ using multiple objectives in model calibration. Significant trade-offs
+ between the different objectives are observed in this case and no
+ single unique set of parameter values is able to optimise all objectives
+ simultaneously. Instead, the solution to the calibration problem
+ is given as a set of Pareto optimal solutions, which from a multi-objective
+ viewpoint are equivalent. A large variability is observed in the
+ Pareto optimal parameter sets, resulting in a large range of "equally
+ good" simulated hydrographs. From the set of Pareto optimal solutions,
+ one can draw a single solution according to priorities of the different
+ objectives for the specific model application being considered. A
+ balanced aggregated objective function is proposed, which provides
+ a compromise solution that puts equal weights to the different objectives.
+ (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00279-1},
+ keywords = {rainfall-runoff models, calibration, parameter estimation, optimisation,
+ multiple objectives, HBV HYDROLOGICAL MODEL, GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION,
+ UNCERTAINTY, ALGORITHMS, SCHEME},
+ tags = {SWAT, Calibration, Goodness-of-Fit}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{madsen+al2002,
+ author = {Madsen, H. and Wilson, G. and Ammentrop, H.},
+ title = {Comparison of different automated strategies for calibration of rainfall-runoff
+ models},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {261},
+ pages = {48--59},
+ number = {1-4},
+ abstract = {Three different automated methods for calibration of rainfall-runoff
+ models are presented and compared. The methods represent various
+ calibration strategies that utilise multiple objectives and allow
+ user intervention on different levels and different stages in the
+ calibration process. The methods have been applied for calibration
+ of a test catchment and compared on validation data with respect
+ to overall performance measures in terms of water balance error and
+ general hydrograph shape, and simulation of high and low flow, events,
+ The results illustrate the problem of non-uniqueness in model calibration
+ since none of the methods are superior with respect to all performance
+ measures considered, In general, the different methods put emphasis
+ on different response modes of the hydrograph. Calibration based
+ on the use of generic search routines in combination with user-specified
+ calibration priorities is seen to compare favourably with an expert
+ system that is designed for the specific model being considered and
+ requires user intervention during the entire calibration process.
+ (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00619-9},
+ keywords = {rainfall-runoff models, calibration, parameter estimation, optimisation
+ routines, expert system, HBV HYDROLOGICAL MODEL, GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION,
+ ALGORITHMS, MULTIPLE, SCHEME},
+ tags = {Calibration, Goodness-of-Fit}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{magaritz1990,
+ author = {Magaritz, M. and Aravena, R. and Pe\~na, H. and Suzuki, O. and Grilli,
+ A.},
+ title = {Source of groundwaters in the deserts of northern Chile: {E}vidence
+ for deep circulation of groundwaters from the Andes},
+ journal = {Ground Water},
+ year = {1990},
+ volume = {28},
+ pages = {513--517},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {Ground water in the Pampa del Tamarugal basin part of the desert of
+ Northern Chile is the main water resource for cities and agricultural
+ activities in the region. As the area received virtually no precipitation,
+ the source of the ground water is rains in the high Andes. Aquifer
+ recharge has been linked to a drainage system associated with this
+ part of the Andes. Ground-water flow is from northeast to southwest,
+ and a flow component from east to west is also observed in some parts
+ of the basin. In general, the water becomes very saline towards the
+ western part of the basin, giving rise to salt lakes (salares) in
+ ground-water discharge areas. However, isotopic, chemical, and geological
+ evidence plus ground-water temperatures distribution, suggest the
+ existence of a different recharge mechanism linked to a regional
+ ground-water flow system. It is suggested that low-salinity water
+ emerges from ground water recharged in the high Andes through a basement
+ fault system underneath the basin. This model has implications for
+ the future exploration for new fresh-water resources.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1745-6584.1990.tb01706.x},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.04.07}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{makowski2002,
+ author = {Makowski, D. and Wallach, D. and Tremblay, M.},
+ title = {Using a {B}ayesian approach to parameter estimation; comparison of
+ the {GLUE} and {MCMC} methods},
+ journal = {Agronomie},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {22},
+ pages = {191--203},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {The Bayesian approach allows one to estimate model parameters from
+ prior expert knowledge about parameter values and from experimental
+ data. The purpose of this paper is to compare the performances of
+ two Bayesian methods, namely the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and
+ the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation method (GLUE).
+ These two methods are applied to a non-linear model that includes
+ 22 parameters. This model has the main features of an agronomic model.
+ The two Bayesian methods give similar results. The parameter estimates
+ obtained with the two methods have similar properties. Both methods
+ improve strongly the accuracy of model predictions even when only
+ few data samples are available for estimating the parameters. However,
+ the values of mean squared error of prediction of the model are slightly
+ higher with the GLUE method than with the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm.
+ The performances of the methods are sensitive to the prior assumptions
+ made about parameter values.},
+ doi = {10.1051/agro:2002007},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.07.11}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{manning2009,
+ author = {Manning, L. and Hall, J. and Fowler, H. and Kilsby, C.},
+ title = {Using probabilistic climate change information from a multimodel
+ ensemble for water resources assessment},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {45},
+ pages = {W11411},
+ abstract = {Increasing availability of ensemble outputs from general circulation
+ models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) permits fuller examination
+ of the implications of climate uncertainties in hydrological systems.
+ A Bayesian statistical framework is used to combine projections by
+ weighting and to generate probability distributions of local climate
+ change from an ensemble of RCM outputs. A stochastic weather generator
+ produces corresponding daily series of rainfall and potential evapotranspiration,
+ which are input into a catchment rainfall-runoff model to estimate
+ future water abstraction availability. The method is applied to the
+ Thames catchment in the United Kingdom, where comparison with previous
+ studies shows that different downscaling methods produce significantly
+ different flow predictions and that this is partly attributable to
+ potential evapotranspiration predictions. An extended sensitivity
+ test exploring the effect of the weights and assumptions associated
+ with combining climate model projections illustrates that under all
+ plausible assumptions the ensemble implies a significant reduction
+ in catchment water resource availability},
+ doi = {10.1029/2007WR006674},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.03.08}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{mantovantodini2006,
+ author = {Mantovan, P. and Todini, E.},
+ title = {Hydrological forecasting uncertainty assessment: {I}ncoherence of
+ the {GLUE} methodology},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {330},
+ pages = {368--381},
+ number = {1--2},
+ abstract = {The aim of the paper is to demonstrate the incoherence, in terms of
+ Bayesian inference, of the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation
+ (GLUE) approach, introduced by Beven and Binley in 1992. This results
+ into a reduced capacity of the technique to extract information,
+ in other words to “learnâ€, from observations. The paper also discusses
+ the implications of this reduced learning capacity for parameter
+ estimation and hydrological forecasting uncertainty assessment, which
+ has led to the definition of the “equifinality†principle. The notions
+ of coherence for learning and prediction processes as well as the
+ value of a statistical experiment are introduced. These concepts
+ are useful in showing that the GLUE methodology defines a statistical
+ inference process, which is inconsistent and incoherent.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.04.046},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{mantovantodini2007,
+ author = {Mantovan, P. and Todini, E. and Martina, M.},
+ title = {Reply to comment by {K}. {B}even, {P}. {S}mith and {J}. {F}reer on
+ ``{H}ydrological forecasting uncertainty assessment: {I}ncoherence
+ of the {GLUE} methodology''},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {338},
+ pages = {319--324},
+ number = {3--4},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.02.029},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{mapfumo+al2004,
+ author = {Mapfumo, E. and Chanasyk, D. and Willms, W.},
+ title = {Simulating daily soil water under foothills fescue grazing with the
+ soil and water assessment tool model ({A}lberta, {C}anada)},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {18},
+ pages = {2787--2800},
+ number = {15},
+ abstract = {Grazing is common in the foothills fescue grasslands and may influence
+ the seasonal soil-water patterns, which in turn determine range productivity.
+ Hydrological modelling using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT)
+ is becoming widely adopted throughout North America especially for
+ simulation of stream flow and runoff in small and large basins. Although
+ applications of the SWAT model have been wide, little attention has
+ been paid to the model's ability to simulate soil-water patterns
+ in small watersheds. Thus a daily profile of soil water was simulated
+ with SWAT using data collected from the Stavely Range Sub-station
+ in the foothills of south-western Alberta, Canada. Three small watersheds
+ were established using a combination of natural and artificial barriers
+ in 1996-97. The watersheds were subjected to no grazing (control),
+ heavy grazing (2{$\cdot$}4 animal unit months (AUM) per hectare)
+ or very heavy grazing (4{$\cdot$}8 AUM ha-1). Soil-water measurements
+ were conducted at four slope positions within each watershed (upper,
+ middle, lower and 5 m close to the collector drain), every 2 weeks
+ annually from 1998 to 2000 using a downhole CPN 503 neutron moisture
+ meter. Calibration of the model was conducted using 1998 soil-water
+ data and resulted in Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (EF or R2) and regression
+ coefficient of determination (r2) values of 0{$\cdot$}77 and 0{$\cdot$}85,
+ respectively. Model graphical and statistical evaluation was conducted
+ using the soil-water data collected in 1999 and 2000. During the
+ evaluation period, soil water was simulated reasonably with an overall
+ EF of 0{$\cdot$}70, r2 of 0{$\cdot$}72 and a root mean square error
+ (RMSE) of 18{$\cdot$}01. The model had a general tendency to overpredict
+ soil water under relatively dry soil conditions, but to underpredict
+ soil water under wet conditions. Sensitivity analysis indicated that
+ absolute relative sensitivity indices of input parameters in soil-water
+ simulation were in the following order; available water capacity
+ > bulk density > runoff curve number > fraction of field capacity
+ (FFCB) > saturated hydraulic conductivity. Thus these data were critical
+ inputs to ensure reasonable simulation of soil-water patterns. Overall,
+ the model performed satisfactorily in simulating soil-water patterns
+ in all three watersheds with a daily time-step and indicates a great
+ potential for monitoring soil-water resources in small watersheds},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.1493},
+ keywords = {hydrology, model sensitivity, soil moisture, statistical evaluation,
+ SWAT},
+ tags = {SWAT, Applications}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{marshall+al2007,
+ author = {Marshall, L. and Nott, D. and Sharma, A.},
+ title = {Towards dynamic catchment modelling: a {B}ayesian hierarchical mixtures
+ of experts framework},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {21},
+ pages = {847--861},
+ number = {7},
+ abstract = {Despite the abundance of existing hydrological models, there is no
+ single model that has been identified as performing consistently
+ over the range of possible catchment types and catchment conditions.
+ An attractive alternative to selecting a single model is to combine
+ the results from several different hydrological models, thereby providing
+ a more appropriate representation of model uncertainty than is the
+ case otherwise. Methods based on Bayesian statistical techniques
+ provide an ideal means to compare and combine competing models, as
+ they explicitly account for model uncertainty. Bayesian model averaging
+ is one such alternative that combines individual models by weighting
+ models proportional to their respective posterior probability of
+ selection. However, the necessity of having fixed weights for each
+ model over the entire length of the simulation period means that
+ the relative usefulness of different models at different times is
+ not considered. The hierarchical mixtures of experts (HME) framework
+ is an appealing extension of the model averaging framework that allows
+ the individual model weights to be estimated dynamically. Consequently,
+ a model more capable at simulating low flow characteristics attains
+ a higher weight (probability) when such conditions are likely, switching
+ over to a lower weight when catchment storage increases. In this
+ way, different models apply in different hydrological states, with
+ the probability of selecting each model being allowed to depend on
+ relevant antecedent condition characteristics. HME models provide
+ additional flexibility compared with simple combinations of models,
+ by allowing the way that model predictions are combined to depend
+ on predictor variables. Thus, for hydrological models, the switch
+ from one model to another can depend on the existing catchment condition.
+ This new modelling framework is applied using a simple conceptual
+ model to 10 selected Australian catchments. The study regions are
+ chosen to vary considerably in terms of size, yield and location.
+ Results from this application are compared with the alternative where
+ a single fixed model structure is applied. Comparison of the model
+ simulations using the maximum log-likelihood and the Nash-Sutcliffe
+ coefficient of efficiency show that more variance in streamflow was
+ explained by the HME model, compared with the conceptual model alone
+ for each of the catchments investigate},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.6294},
+ keywords = {Bayesian, rainfall-runoff model, model averaging},
+ tags = {conceptual model, Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{martinecRango1989,
+ author = {Martinec, J. and Rango, A.},
+ title = {Merits of statistical criteria for the performance of hydrological
+ models},
+ journal = {Journal of the American Water Resources Association},
+ year = {1989},
+ volume = {25},
+ pages = {421--432},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {The performance of a hydrological model is usually assessed first
+ by visual inspection of the measured and computed hydrographs. Numerous
+ statistical criteria are available for numerical evaluations of model
+ accuracy in each single year, in a particular season of the year,
+ or in a sequence of years or seasons. In the last case, the problem
+ of computing the overall result has to be considered. If too many
+ criteria are used and the criteria are switched frequently, an assessment
+ of a model's performance becomes difficult for a potential user.
+ Therefore, this paper concentrates on just three criteria and their
+ combined evaluation: The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient, which compares
+ the model computed discharge with the average measured discharge;
+ the {``}coefficient of gain from daily means{''} in which a uniform
+ average discharge is replaced by daily average discharges; and the
+ volumetric difference between the total measured and computed runoff.
+ The three criteria are combined in a three dimensional representation
+ that allows intercomparisons of model performance in a single diagram.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1752-1688.1989.tb03079.x},
+ keywords = { * model performance, * accuracy criteria, * statistical analysis,
+ * snowmelt runoff, * hydrologic modeling},
+ tags = {Calibration, Goodness-of-Fit}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{martinezgupta2010,
+ author = {Martinez, G. and Gupta, H.},
+ title = {Toward improved identification of hydrological models: {A} diagnostic
+ evaluation of the "abcd" monthly water balance model for the conterminous
+ {U}nited {S}tates},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {46},
+ pages = {W08507},
+ number = {8},
+ abstract = {Continental-scale water balance (WB) assessments are important for
+ characterizing hydrologic systems and understanding regional-scale
+ dynamics and for identifying hydroclimatic trends and systematic
+ data biases. However, it is not clear whether existing models can
+ reproduce the catchment dynamics observed in nature. Nor has our
+ ability to evaluate model results kept pace with computational and
+ data processing abilities. Consequently, methods for diagnostic model
+ evaluation and improvement remain weak. There is a need for well-conceived,
+ systematic strategies to guide model selection, establish data requirements,
+ estimate parameters, and evaluate and track model performance. We
+ examine these challenges in the context of monthly WB modeling for
+ the conterminous United States by applying the {``}abcd{''} model
+ to 764 catchments selected for their comprehensive coverage of hydrogeological
+ conditions. By examining diagnostically relevant components of model
+ error, we evaluate the details of its spatial variability across
+ the continental United States. Model performance, parameters, and
+ structures are found to be correlated with hydroclimatic variables.
+ However, our results indicate a need for the conventional identification
+ approach to be improved. Because they do not constrain models to
+ reproduce important hydrological behaviors, reported values of NSE
+ or r2 performance can be misleading. Further, we must establish suitable
+ model hypotheses with appropriate spatiotemporal scale for each hydroclimatic
+ region. Until these issues are resolved, such models cannot reliably
+ be used to infer the spatiotemporal dynamics of continental-scale
+ water balance or to regionalize model structures and parameters to
+ ungaged locations. },
+ doi = {10.1029/2009WR008294},
+ tags = {Calibration, conceptual model}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{mathevetgarcon2010,
+ author = {Mathevet, T. and Garcon, R.},
+ title = {Tall tales from the hydrological crypt: are models monsters?},
+ journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {55},
+ pages = {857--871},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {"Bizarre", "monstrous": in society as well as in science, this is
+ the way we are used to describing objects that deviate from an expected
+ standard. Hydrology is no exception. The bizarre or the monstrous
+ describes every object that has a low probability of occurring, or
+ that our models fail to represent. Actually, the bizarre or the monstrous
+ is often a demonstration of the limits of our models rather than
+ an intrinsic characteristic of the objects we study. This article
+ provides a reflection on the definition of bizarre and monstrous
+ in the context of hydrology. We base our reflection on 60 years of
+ experience in hydrometeorological operational management and applied
+ research at the French national electricity company (EDF-DTG). First,
+ we describe several classical a priori models or conceptions trusted
+ by hydrologists, sometimes erroneously. These include classical rainfall
+ or streamflow measurement issues, certain limits of the watershed
+ concept or problems in the spatialization of local measurements.
+ Then we attempt to show how the misuse of statistical models can
+ generate bizarre or monstrous results. We give examples related to
+ outliers and to the homogeneity and stationarity hypotheses. We show
+ how difficult it may be for operational forecasters to anticipate
+ and believe that extreme (monstrous) events will occur in the near
+ future. Finally, we wish to show that the bizarre or the monstrous
+ should not be rejected in hydrology, but instead is something to
+ study in greater depth. We believe that this type of analysis offers
+ new opportunities to improve the explanatory and predictive capacity
+ of our models. },
+ doi = {10.1080/02626667.2010.503934},
+ tags = {Calibration, Philosophical}
+}
+
+@MANUAL{ostrich2005,
+ title = {{Ostrich: An optimization software tool, Documentation and User’s
+ Guide, Version 1.6}},
+ author = {Matott, L.},
+ organization = {Department of Civil, Structural and Environmental Engineering, University
+ at Buffalo},
+ address = {Buffalo, NY},
+ year = {2005},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.10.11},
+ url = {http:\\www.groundwater.buffalo.edu}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{matott2009,
+ author = {Matott, L. and Babendreier, J. and Purucker, S.},
+ title = {Evaluating uncertainty in integrated environmental models: {A} review
+ of concepts and tools},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {45},
+ pages = {W06421},
+ number = {45},
+ abstract = {This paper reviews concepts for evaluating integrated environmental
+ models and discusses a list of relevant software-based tools. A simplified
+ taxonomy for sources of uncertainty and a glossary of key terms with
+ “standard†definitions are provided in the context of integrated
+ approaches to environmental assessment. These constructs provide
+ a reference point for cataloging 65 different model evaluation tools.
+ Each tool is described briefly (in the auxiliary material) and is
+ categorized for applicability across seven thematic model evaluation
+ methods. Ratings for citation count and software availability are
+ also provided, and a companion Web site containing download links
+ for tool software is introduced. The paper concludes by reviewing
+ strategies for tool interoperability and offers guidance for both
+ practitioners and tool developers.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2008WR007301},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.02.22}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{matott2008,
+ author = {Matott, L. and Rabideau, A.},
+ title = {Calibration of complex subsurface reaction models using a surrogate-model
+ approach},
+ journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {31},
+ pages = {1697--1707},
+ number = {12},
+ abstract = {Automatic calibration of complex subsurface reaction models involves
+ numerous difficulties, including the existence of multiple plausible
+ models, parameter non-uniqueness, and excessive computational burden.
+ To overcome these difficulties, this study investigated a novel procedure
+ for performing simultaneous calibration of multiple models (SCMM).
+ By combining a hybrid global-plus-polishing search heuristic with
+ a biased-but-random adaptive model evaluation step, the new SCMM
+ method calibrates multiple models via efficient exploration of the
+ multi-model calibration space. Central algorithm components are an
+ adaptive assignment of model preference weights, mapping functions
+ relating the uncertain parameters of the alternative models, and
+ a shuffling step that efficiently exploits pseudo-optimal configurations
+ of the alternative models. The SCMM approach was applied to two nitrate
+ contamination problems involving batch reactions and one-dimensional
+ reactive transport. For the chosen problems, the new method produced
+ improved model fits (i.e. up to 35% reduction in objective function)
+ at significantly reduced computational expense (i.e. 40–90% reduction
+ in model evaluations), relative to previously established benchmarks.
+ Although the method was effective for the test cases, SCMM relies
+ on a relatively ad-hoc approach to assigning intermediate preference
+ weights and parameter mapping functions. Despite these limitations,
+ the results of the numerical experiments are empirically promising
+ and the reasoning and structure of the approach provide a strong
+ foundation for further development.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.advwatres.2008.08.006},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.10.11}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{maurer2007,
+ author = {Maurer, E.},
+ title = {Uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change in the {S}ierra
+ {N}evada, {C}alifornia, under two emissions scenarios},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {82},
+ pages = {309--325},
+ number = {3--4},
+ abstract = {A hydrologic model was driven by the climate projected by 11 GCMs
+ under two emissions scenarios (the higher emission SRES A2 and the
+ lower emission SRES B1) to investigate whether the projected hydrologic
+ changes by 2071--2100 have a high statistical confidence, and to
+ determine the confidence level that the A2 and B1 emissions scenarios
+ produce differing impacts. There are highly significant average temperature
+ increases by 2071--2100 of 3.7°C under A2 and 2.4°C under B1; July
+ increases are 5°C for A2 and 3°C for B1. Two high confidence hydrologic
+ impacts are increasing winter streamflow and decreasing late spring
+ and summer flow. Less snow at the end of winter is a confident projection,
+ as is earlier arrival of the annual flow volume, which has important
+ implications on California water management. The two emissions pathways
+ show some differing impacts with high confidence: the degree of warming
+ expected, the amount of decline in summer low flows, the shift to
+ earlier streamflow timing, and the decline in end-of-winter snow
+ pack, with more extreme impacts under higher emissions in all cases.
+ This indicates that future emissions scenarios play a significant
+ role in the degree of impacts to water resources in California.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10584-006-9180-9},
+ tags = {Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{mckay1979,
+ author = {McKay, D. and Beckman, R. and Conover, W.},
+ title = {A comparison of three methods for selecting values of input variables
+ in the analysis of output from a computer code},
+ journal = {Technometrics},
+ year = {1979},
+ volume = {21},
+ pages = {239--245},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {Two types of sampling plans are examined as alternatives to simple
+ random sampling in Monte Carlo studies. These plans are shown to
+ be improvements over simple random sampling with respect to variance
+ for a class of estimators which includes the sample mean and the
+ empirical distribution function.},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.11.18},
+ url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/1268522}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{mclaughlin1988,
+ author = {{McLaughlin}, D. and Wood, E.},
+ title = {A distributed parameter approach for evaluating the accuracy of groundwater
+ model predictions: 2. {A}pplication to groundwater flow},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1988},
+ volume = {24},
+ pages = {1048--1060},
+ number = {7},
+ abstract = {The distributed parameter theory presented by McLaughlin and Wood
+ (this issue) is used to evaluate the accuracy of a groundwater flow
+ model. The special case investigated assumes that the model's prediction
+ errors are due primarily to data limitations. In this case, approximate
+ prediction error moments (mean and covariance) are obtained by solving
+ two sets of coupled partial differential equations which have the
+ same basic structure as the original flow equation. Solutions can
+ be obtained with spectral, Green's function, or numerical techniques,
+ depending on the assumptions made. Two examples are solved using
+ a finite element approach. The first (two-dimensional) example confirms
+ steady state infinite domain results obtained with spectral methods.
+ The second (three-dimensional) example investigates the influence
+ of spatial variability, sampling strategy, and suboptimal estimation
+ on model prediction accuracy.},
+ doi = {10.1029/WR024i007p01048},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.02.17}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{mcmillan2009,
+ author = {{McMillan}, H. and Clark, M.},
+ title = {{Rainfall-runoff model calibration using informal likelihood measures
+ within a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling scheme}},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {45},
+ pages = {W04418},
+ abstract = {This paper considers the calibration of a distributed rainfall-runoff
+ model in a catchment where heterogeneous geology leads to a difficult
+ and high-dimensional calibration problem and where the response surface
+ has multiple optima and strong parameter interactions. These characteristics
+ render the problem unsuitable for solution by uniform Monte Carlo
+ sampling and require a more targeted sampling strategy. MCMC methods,
+ using the SCEM-UA algorithm, are trialed using both formal and informal
+ likelihood measures. Each method is assessed in its success at predicting
+ the catchment flow response and capturing the total uncertainty associated
+ with this prediction. The comparison is made at both the catchment
+ outlet and at internal catchment locations with distinct geological
+ characteristics. Informal likelihoods are found to provide a more
+ complete exploration of the behavioral regions of the response space
+ and hence more accurate estimation of total uncertainty. Last, we
+ demonstrate how information gained from the investigation of the
+ response space, in conjunction with qualitative knowledge of system
+ behavior, can be used to constrain the Markov chain trajectory.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2008WR007288},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.10.10}
+}
+
+@INCOLLECTION{mearns+al2001,
+ author = {Mearns, L. and Hulme, M. and Carter, T. and Whetton, P.},
+ title = {Climate scenario development},
+ booktitle = {Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Chapter 13, Contribution
+ of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
+ Pannel on Climate Change (IPCC)},
+ publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
+ year = {2001},
+ editor = {J. T. Houghton and K. Maskell and X. Dai and P. J. {van der Linden}
+ and C. A. Johnson and Y. Ding and D. J. Griggs and M. Noguer},
+ pages = {739--768},
+ address = {Cambridge, UK},
+ keywords = {climate scenario},
+ tags = {Scenarios}
+}
+
+@INCOLLECTION{meehl+al2007,
+ author = {Meehl, G. and Stocker, T. and Collins, W. and Friedlingstein, P.
+ and Gaye, A. and Gregory, J. and Kitoh, A. and Knutti, R. and Murphy,
+ J. and Noda, A. and Raper, S. and Watterson, I. and Weaver, A. and
+ Zhao, {Z.-C.}},
+ title = {Global climate projections},
+ booktitle = {Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of
+ Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
+ Panel on Climate Change},
+ publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
+ year = {2007},
+ editor = {S. Solomon and D. Qin and M. Manning and Z. Chen and M. Marquis and
+ K.B. Averyt and M. Tignor and H.L. Miller},
+ address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.},
+ tags = {IPCC}
+}
+
+@PHDTHESIS{mendes2004,
+ author = {Mendes, R.},
+ title = {Population topologies and their influence in particle swarm performance},
+ school = {Departamento de Inform\'atica. Escola de Engenharia. Universidade
+ do Minho},
+ year = {2004},
+ address = {Minho, Portugal.},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.11.17}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{mendes+al2004,
+ author = {Mendes, R. and Kennedy, J. and Neves, J.},
+ title = {The {F}ully {I}nformed {P}article Swarm: Simpler, Maybe Better},
+ journal = {IEEE Transactions on Evolutionary Computation},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {8},
+ pages = {204--210},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {The canonical particle swarm algorithm is a new approach to optimization,
+ drawing inspiration from group behavior and the establishment of
+ social norms. It is gaining popularity, especially because of the
+ speed of convergence and the fact that it is easy to use. However,
+ we feel that each individual is not simply influenced by the best
+ performer among his neighbors. We, thus, decided to make the individuals
+ "fully informed." The results are very promising, as informed individuals
+ seem to find better solutions in all the benchmark functions.},
+ doi = {10.1109/TEVC.2004.826074},
+ tags = {Calibration, PSO}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{mertens2004,
+ author = {Mertens, J. and Madsen, H. and Feyen, L. and Jacques, D. and Feyen,
+ J.},
+ title = {Including prior information in the estimation of effective soil parameters
+ in unsaturated zone modelling},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {294},
+ pages = {251--269},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {In this paper we propose a methodology to include prior information
+ in the estimation of effective soil parameters for modelling the
+ soil moisture content in the unsaturated zone. Laboratory measurements
+ on undisturbed soil cores were used to estimate the moisture retention
+ curve and hydraulic conductivity curve parameters. The soil moisture
+ content was measured at 25 locations along three transects and at
+ three different depths (surface, 30 and 60 cm) on an 80×20 m hillslope
+ for the year 2001. Soil cores were collected in 84 locations situated
+ in three profile pits along the hillslope. For the estimation of
+ the effective soil hydraulic parameters the joint probability distribution
+ of measured parameter values was used as prior information. A two-horizon
+ single column 1D MIKE SHE model based on Richards' equation was set-up
+ for nine soil moisture measurement locations along the middle transect
+ of the hillslope. The goal of the model is to simulate the soil moisture
+ profile at each location. The shuffled complex evolution (SCE) algorithm
+ has been applied to estimate effective model parameters using either
+ wide parameter ranges, referred to as the ‘no-prior’ case, or the
+ joint probability distribution of measured parameter values as prior
+ information (‘prior’ case). When the prior information is incorporated
+ in the SCE optimisation the goodness-of-fit of the model predictions
+ is only slightly worse compared to when no-prior information is incorporated.
+ However, the effective parameter estimates are more realistic when
+ the prior information is incorporated. For both the no-prior and
+ prior case the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation procedure
+ (GLUE) was subsequently used to estimate the uncertainty bounds (UB)
+ on the model predictions. When incorporating the prior information
+ more parameter sets were accepted for the estimation of the predictive
+ uncertainty and the parameter values were more realistic. Moreover,
+ UB better enclosed the observations. Thus, incorporating prior information
+ in GLUE reduces the amount of model evaluations needed to obtain
+ sufficient behavioural parameter sets. The results indicate the importance
+ of prior information in the SCE and GLUE parameter estimation strategies.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.02.011},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{merz+al2010b,
+ author = {Merz, B. and Hall, J. and Disse, M. and Schumann, A.},
+ title = {Fluvial flood risk management in a changing world},
+ journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Science},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {10},
+ pages = {509--527},
+ number = {3},
+ doi = {10.5194/nhess-10-509-2010}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{merz+al2008,
+ author = {Merz, B. and Kreibich, H. and Apel, H.},
+ title = {Flood risk analysis: uncertainties and validation},
+ journal = {Österreichische Wasser- und Abfallwirtschaft},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {60},
+ pages = {89--94},
+ abstract = {Zur Quantifizierung des Hochwasserrisikos werden Risikoanalysen durchgeführt.
+ Solche Analysen beschäftigen sich typischerweise mit extremen Ereignissen
+ und Versagensszenarios, die zum Zeitpunkt der Analyse kaum oder überhaupt
+ nicht beobachtet wurden. Aus diesem Grund sind Risikoanalysen mit
+ beträchtlicher Unsicherheit verbunden. Analysen zur Unsicherheit
+ von Hochwasser-Risikoaussagen werden heute immer noch selten durchgeführt.
+ Dieser Beitrag argumentiert für die Durchführung von Unsicherheitsanalysen
+ und zeigt, dass diese (1) Risikoanalysen verbessern, (2) die Validierung
+ bzw. Plausibilisierung von Risikoanalysen unterstützen, und (3) eine
+ zusätzliche Information für die Entscheidungsfindung sind.},
+ affiliation = {GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam Potsdam Germany},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00506-008-0001-4},
+ issn = {0945-358X},
+ issue = {5},
+ keyword = {Earth and Environmental Science},
+ publisher = {Springer Wien}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{merz+al2010,
+ author = {Merz, B. and Kreibich, H. and Schwarze, R. and Thieken, A.},
+ title = {Review article "Assessment of economic flood damage"},
+ journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Science},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {10},
+ pages = {1697--1724},
+ number = {8},
+ doi = {10.5194/nhess-10-1697-2010}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{merz+al2001,
+ author = {Merz, B. and Kreibich, H. and Thieken, A. and Schmidtke, R.},
+ title = {Estimation uncertainty of direct monetary flood damage to buildings},
+ journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Science},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {4},
+ pages = {153--163},
+ number = {1},
+ doi = {10.5194/nhess-4-153-2004}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{merz+al2004,
+ author = {Merz, B. and Kreibich, H. and Thieken, A. and Schmidtke, R.},
+ title = {Estimation uncertainty of direct monetary flood damage to buildings},
+ journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Science},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {4},
+ pages = {153--163},
+ number = {1},
+ doi = {10.5194/nhess-4-153-2004}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{messager+al2006,
+ author = {Messager, C. and Gall\'ee, H. and Brasseur, O. and Cappelaere, B.
+ and Peugeot, C. and S\'eguis, L. and Vauclin, M. and Ramel, R. and
+ Grasseau, G. and L\'eger, L. and Girou, D.},
+ title = {Influence of observed and {RCM}-simulated precipitation on the water
+ discharge over the Sirba basin, {B}urkina {F}aso/{N}iger},
+ journal = {Climate Dynamics},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {27},
+ pages = {199--214},
+ number = {2--3},
+ abstract = {The forcing of a hydrologic model (ABC) by both observed and simulated
+ precipitation from a regional climate model (MAR) has been performed
+ over the Sirba watershed (39,000 km2) located in the Sahelian region.
+ Two aspects have been more specifically examined: the spatial and
+ temporal representations of precipitation. The comparison between
+ simulated and observed dischargesâ€â€using observed rainfall datasets
+ as forcing of the hydrologic modelâ€â€has shown that the representation
+ of daily precipitation (which is mainly convective in the Sahelian
+ region) was not sufficiently accurate to correctly simulate the hydrologic
+ response of the watershed. Since this response drives the soil water
+ budget and consequently the amount of evaporation in forthcoming
+ coupling experiments, it is thus necessary to develop more realistic
+ infra-daily precipitation associated with convective events. A new
+ temporal disaggregation scheme has been then developed. Considering
+ observed as well as simulated precipitation fields, this method has
+ significantly improved the simulated discharge at the catchment outlet.
+ The major role played by the temporal component compared to spatial
+ component of the precipitation has been then underlined. In addition,
+ the present study shows the unsuitability of the simulated precipitation
+ from the RCM to directly force a hydrologic model at infra daily
+ timescale even if the cumulative amount and the main features of
+ the precipitation seasonal cycle are well simulated.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00382-006-0131-y},
+ tags = {Climate Models, Impacts, RCMs}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{metropolis1953,
+ author = {Metropolis, N. and Rosenbluth, A. and Rosenbluth, M. and Teller,
+ A. and Teller, E.},
+ title = {Equation of state calculations by fast computing machines},
+ journal = {The Journal of Chemical Physics},
+ year = {1953},
+ volume = {21},
+ pages = {1087--1092},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {A general method, suitable for fast computing machines, for investigating
+ such properties as equations of state for substances consisting of
+ interacting individual molecules is described. The method consists
+ of a modified Monte Carlo integration over configuration space. Results
+ for the two?dimensional rigid?sphere system have been obtained on
+ the Los Alamos MANIAC and are presented here. These results are compared
+ to the free volume equation of state and to a four?term virial coefficient
+ expansion.},
+ doi = {10.1063/1.1699114},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.07.16}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{meyeretal2004,
+ author = {Meyer, P. and Ye, M. and Neuman, S. and Cantrell, K.},
+ title = {Combined estimation of hydrogeologic conceptual model and parameter
+ uncertainty},
+ institution = {US Nuclear Regulatory Commission},
+ year = {2004},
+ type = {Report NUREG/CR-6843 PNNL-14534},
+ address = {Washington, US},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{meyeretal2007,
+ author = {Meyer, P. and Ye, M. and Rockhold, M. and Neuman, S. and Cantrell,
+ K.},
+ title = {Combined estimation of hydrogeologic conceptual model parameter and
+ scenario uncertainty with application to uranium transport at the
+ {H}anford {S}ite 300 area},
+ institution = {US Nuclear Regulatory Commission},
+ year = {2007},
+ type = {Report NUREG/CR-6940 PNNL-16396},
+ address = {Washington, US},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{meyus2000,
+ author = {Meyus, Y. and Batelaan, O. and {De Smedt}, F.},
+ title = {Concept {V}laams {G}rondwater {M}odel ({VGM}): {T}echnicsh concept
+ van het {VGM}; deelraport 1: Hydrogeologische codering van de ondergrond
+ van {V}laanderen ({HCOV}) ({T}echnical concept of the {F}lemish groundwtaer
+ model: {R}eport 1: {H}ydrogeological coding of the subsoil of {F}landers)
+ [{I}n {D}utch]},
+ institution = {AMINAL, afedeling WATER},
+ year = {2000},
+ address = {Belgium},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ pages = {--},
+ publisher = {AMINAL, afdeling Water},
+ refid = {MEYUS2000},
+ timestamp = {2008.11.04}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{middelkoop+al2001,
+ author = {Middelkoop, H. and Daamen, K. and Gellens, D. and Grabs, W. and Kwadijk,
+ J. and Lang, H. and Parmet, B. and Schadler, B. and Schulla, J. and
+ Wilke, K.},
+ title = {Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources
+ management in the {R}hine basin},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {49},
+ pages = {105--128},
+ number = {1--2},
+ abstract = {The International Commission for the Hydrology of the Rhine basin
+ (CHR) has carried out a research project to assess the impact of
+ climate change on the river flow conditions in the Rhine basin. Along
+ a bottom-up line, different detailed hydrological models with hourly
+ and daily time steps have been developed for representative sub-catchments
+ of the Rhine basin. Along a top-down line, a water balance model
+ for the entire Rhine basin has been developed, which calculates monthly
+ discharges and which was tested on the scale of the major tributaries
+ of the Rhine. Using this set of models, the effects of climate change
+ on the discharge regime in different parts of the Rhine basin were
+ calculated using the results of UKHI and XCCC GCM-experiments. All
+ models indicate the same trends in the changes: higher winter discharge
+ as a result of intensified snow-melt and increased winter precipitation,
+ and lower summer discharge due to the reduced winter snow storage
+ and an increase of evapotranspiration. When the results are considered
+ in more detail, however, several differences show up. These can firstly
+ be attributed to different physical characteristics of the studied
+ areas, but different spatial and temporal scales used in the modelling
+ and different representations of several hydrological processes (e.g.,
+ evapotranspiration, snow melt) are responsible for the differences
+ found as well. Climate change can affect various socio-economic sectors.
+ Higher temperatures may threaten winter tourism in the lower winter
+ sport areas. The hydrological changes will increase flood risk during
+ winter, whilst low flows during summer will adversely affect inland
+ navigation, and reduce water availability for agriculture and industry.
+ Balancing the required actions against economic cost and the existing
+ uncertainties in the climate change scenarios, a policy of 'no-regret
+ and flexibility' in water management planning and design is recommended,
+ where anticipatory adaptive measures in response to climate change
+ impacts are undertaken in combination with ongoing activities.},
+ doi = {10.1023/A:1010784727448},
+ keywords = {RIVER RHINE, CATCHMENTS, SCENARIOS, DISCHARGE, EUROPEEN, MODELS, CO2},
+ tags = {Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{mimikou+al2000,
+ author = {Mimikou, M. and Baltas, E. and Varanou, E. and Pantazis, K.},
+ title = {Regional impacts of climate change on water resources quantity and
+ quality indicators},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2000},
+ volume = {234},
+ pages = {95--109},
+ number = {1--2},
+ abstract = {The aim of this paper is to assess the impacts of climate change on
+ water resources (surface runoff) and on water quality. Two GCM-based
+ climate change scenarios are considered: transient (HadCM2) and equilibrium
+ (UKHI). A conceptual, physically based hydrological model (WBUDG)
+ is applied on a catchment in central Greece, simulating the effect
+ of the two climate scenarios on average monthly runoff. A newly developed
+ in the stream model (R-Qual) is applied in order to simulate water
+ quality downstream of a point source under current and climatically
+ changed conditions. Simulated parameters include monthly concentrations
+ of BOD, DO and NH4+. Both scenarios suggest increase of temperature
+ and decrease of precipitation in the study region. Those changes
+ result in a significant decrease of mean monthly runoff for almost
+ all months with a considerable negative impact on summer drought.
+ Moreover, quality simulations under future climatic conditions entail
+ significant water quality impairments because of decreased stream
+ flows},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00244-4},
+ tags = {Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{min+al2007,
+ author = {Min, {S.-K.} and Hense, A.},
+ title = {Hierarchical evaluation of {IPCC} {AR4} coupled climate models with
+ systematic consideration of model uncertainties},
+ journal = {Climate Dynamics},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {29},
+ pages = {853--868},
+ number = {7--8},
+ abstract = {The capability of reproducing observed surface air temperature (SAT)
+ changes for the twentieth century is assessed using 22 multi-models
+ which contribute to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
+ Fourth Assessment Report. A Bayesian method is utilized for model
+ evaluation by which model uncertainties are considered systematically.
+ We provide a hierarchical analysis for global to sub-continental
+ regions with two settings. First, regions of different size are evaluated
+ separately at global, hemispheric, continental, and sub-continental
+ scales. Second, the global SAT trend patterns are evaluated with
+ gradual refinement of horizontal scales (higher dimensional analysis).
+ Results show that models with natural plus anthropogenic forcing
+ (MME_ALL) generally exhibit better skill than models with anthropogenic
+ only forcing (MME_ANTH) at all spatial scales for different trend
+ periods (entire twentieth century and its first and second halves).
+ This confirms previous studies that suggest the important role of
+ natural forcing. For the second half of the century, we found that
+ MME_ANTH performs well compared to MME_ALL except for a few models
+ with overestimated warming. This indicates not only major contributions
+ of anthropogenic forcing over that period but also the applicability
+ of both MMEs to observationally-constrained future predictions of
+ climate changes. In addition, the skill-weighted averages with the
+ Bayes factors [Bayesian model averaging (BMA)] show a general superiority
+ over other error-based weighted averaging methods, suggesting a potential
+ advantage of BMA for climate change predictions.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00382-007-0269-2},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, Thesis, Climate Change}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{mishra+al2009,
+ author = {Mishra, A. and Singh, V. and Desai, V.},
+ title = {Drought characterization: a probabilistic approach},
+ journal = {Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {23},
+ pages = {41--55},
+ abstract = {Using the alternative renewable process and run theory, this study
+ investigates the distribution of drought interval time, mean drought
+ interarrival time, joint probability density function and transition
+ probabilities of drought events in the Kansabati River basin in India.
+ The standardized precipitation index series is employed in the investigation.
+ The time interval of SPI is found to have a significant effect of
+ the probabilistic characteristics of drought.},
+ affiliation = {McMaster University Department of Civil Engineering 1280 Main Street
+ West Hamilton ON Canada L8S4L7},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00477-007-0194-2},
+ issn = {1436-3240},
+ issue = {1},
+ keyword = {Earth and Environmental Science},
+ publisher = {Springer Berlin / Heidelberg}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{mishrasingh2011,
+ author = {Ashok K. Mishra and Vijay P. Singh},
+ title = {Drought modeling – A review},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {403},
+ pages = {157--175},
+ number = {1--2},
+ abstract = {Summary In recent years droughts have been occurring frequently, and
+ their impacts are being aggravated by the rise in water demand and
+ the variability in hydro-meteorological variables due to climate
+ change. As a result, drought hydrology has been receiving much attention.
+ A variety of concepts have been applied to modeling droughts, ranging
+ from simplistic approaches to more complex models. It is important
+ to understand different modeling approaches as well as their advantages
+ and limitations. This paper, supplementing the previous paper (Mishra
+ and Singh, 2010) where different concepts of droughts were highlighted,
+ reviews different methodologies used for drought modeling, which
+ include drought forecasting, probability based modeling, spatio-temporal
+ analysis, use of Global Climate Models (GCMs) for drought scenarios,
+ land data assimilation systems for drought modeling, and drought
+ planning. It is found that there have been significant improvements
+ in modeling droughts over the past three decades. Hybrid models,
+ incorporating large scale climate indices, seem to be promising for
+ long lead-time drought forecasting. Further research is needed to
+ understand the spatio-temporal complexity of droughts under climate
+ change due to changes in spatio-temporal variability of precipitation.
+ Applications of copula based models for multivariate drought characterization
+ seem to be promising for better drought characterization. Research
+ on decision support systems should be advanced for issuing warnings,
+ assessing risk, and taking precautionary measures, and the effective
+ ways for the flow of information from decision makers to users need
+ to be developed. Finally, some remarks are made regarding the future
+ outlook for drought research.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.03.049},
+ issn = {0022-1694},
+ keywords = {Drought forecasting}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{mishrasingh2010,
+ author = {Ashok K. Mishra and Vijay P. Singh},
+ title = {A review of drought concepts},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {391},
+ pages = {202--216},
+ number = {1--2},
+ abstract = {Summary Owing to the rise in water demand and looming climate change,
+ recent years have witnessed much focus on global drought scenarios.
+ As a natural hazard, drought is best characterized by multiple climatological
+ and hydrological parameters. An understanding of the relationships
+ between these two sets of parameters is necessary to develop measures
+ for mitigating the impacts of droughts. Beginning with a discussion
+ of drought definitions, this paper attempts to provide a review of
+ fundamental concepts of drought, classification of droughts, drought
+ indices, historical droughts using paleoclimatic studies, and the
+ relation between droughts and large scale climate indices. Conclusions
+ are drawn where gaps exist and more research needs to be focussed.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012},
+ issn = {0022-1694},
+ keywords = {Definitions}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{mishra+al2012,
+ author = {Mishra, V. and Dominguez, F. and Lettenmaier, D.},
+ title = {{Urban precipitation extremes: How relieable are regional climate
+ models?}},
+ journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
+ year = {2012},
+ volume = {39},
+ number = {L03407},
+ abstract = {We evaluate the ability of regional climate models (RCMs) that participated
+ in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program
+ (NARCCAP) to reproduce the historical season of occurrence, mean,
+ and variability of 3 and 24-hour precipitation extremes for 100 urban
+ areas across the United States. We show that RCMs with both reanalysis
+ and global climate model (GCM) boundary conditions behave similarly
+ and underestimate 3-hour precipitation maxima across almost the entire
+ U.S. RCMs with both boundary conditions broadly capture the season
+ of occurrence of precipitation maxima except in the interior of the
+ western U.S. and the southeastern U.S. On the other hand, the RCMs
+ do much better in identifying the season of 24-hour precipitation
+ maxima. For mean annual precipitation maxima, regardless of the boundary
+ condition, RCMs consistently show high (low) bias for locations in
+ the western (eastern) U.S. Our results indicate that RCM-simulated
+ 3-hour precipitation maxima at 100-year return period could be considered
+ acceptable for stormwater infrastructure design at less than 12%
+ of the 100 urban areas (regardless of boundary conditions). RCM performance
+ for 24-hour precipitation maxima was slightly better, with performance
+ acceptable for stormwater infrastructure design judged adequate at
+ about 25% of the urban areas.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2011GL050658},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.05.11}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{mitchell+al2004,
+ author = {Mitchell, T. and Carter, T. and Jones, P. and Hulme, M. and New,
+ M.},
+ title = {{A comprehensive set of high-resolution grids of monthly climate
+ for Europe and the globe: the observed record {(1901–2000) and 16
+ scenarios (2001–2100)}}},
+ institution = {Tyndall Centre for Climate Research},
+ year = {2004},
+ address = {Norwich, UK},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.01.12}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{demoel+al2011,
+ author = {de Moel, H. and Aerts, J.},
+ title = {Effect of uncertainty in land use, damage models and inundation depth
+ on flood damage estimates},
+ journal = {Natural Hazards},
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {58},
+ pages = {407--425},
+ abstract = {With the recent transition to a more risk-based approach in flood
+ management, flood risk models—being a key component in flood risk
+ management—are becoming increasingly important. Such models combine
+ information from four components: (1) the flood hazard (mostly inundation
+ depth), (2) the exposure (e.g. land use), (3) the value of elements
+ at risk and (4) the susceptibility of the elements at risk to hydrologic
+ conditions (e.g. depth–damage curves). All these components contain,
+ however, a certain degree of uncertainty which propagates through
+ the calculation and accumulates in the final damage estimate. In
+ this study, an effort has been made to assess the influence of uncertainty
+ in these four components on the final damage estimate. Different
+ land-use data sets and damage models have been used to represent
+ the uncertainties in the exposure, value and susceptibility components.
+ For the flood hazard component, inundation depth has been varied
+ systematically to estimate the sensitivity of flood damage estimations
+ to this component. The results indicate that, assuming the uncertainty
+ in inundation depth is about 25 cm (about 15% of the mean inundation
+ depth), the total uncertainty surrounding the final damage estimate
+ in the case study area can amount to a factor 5–6. The value of elements
+ at risk and depth–damage curves are the most important sources of
+ uncertainty in flood damage estimates and can both introduce about
+ a factor 2 of uncertainty in the final damage estimates. Very large
+ uncertainties in inundation depth would be necessary to have a similar
+ effect on the uncertainty of the final damage estimate, which seem
+ highly unrealistic. Hence, in order to reduce the uncertainties surrounding
+ potential flood damage estimates, these components deserve prioritisation
+ in future flood damage research. While absolute estimates of flood
+ damage exhibit considerable uncertainty (the above-mentioned factor
+ 5–6), estimates for proportional changes in flood damages (defined
+ as the change in flood damages as a percentage of a base situation)
+ are much more robust.},
+ affiliation = {Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan
+ 1085, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands},
+ doi = {10.1007/s11069-010-9675-6},
+ issn = {0921-030X},
+ issue = {1},
+ keyword = {Earth and Environmental Science},
+ publisher = {Springer Netherlands}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{Moel2012,
+ author = {de Moel, H. and Asselman, N. E. M. and Aerts, J. C. J. H.},
+ title = {Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of coastal flood damage estimates
+ in the west of the Netherlands},
+ journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Science},
+ year = {2012},
+ volume = {12},
+ pages = {1045--1058},
+ number = {4},
+ doi = {10.5194/nhess-12-1045-2012}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{montanari2007,
+ author = {Montanari, A},
+ title = {What do we mean by "uncertainty"? The need for a consistent wording
+ about uncertainty assessment in hydrology},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {21},
+ pages = {841--845},
+ number = {6},
+ month = {March},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.6623},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.09.22}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{montanari2005,
+ author = {Montanari, A.},
+ title = {Large sample behaviors of the generalized likelihood uncertainty
+ estimation ({GLUE}) in assessing the uncertainty of rainfall--runoff
+ simulations},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {41},
+ pages = {W08406},
+ abstract = {Several methods have been recently proposed for quantifying the uncertainty
+ of hydrological models. These techniques are based upon different
+ hypotheses, are diverse in nature, and produce outputs that can significantly
+ differ in some cases. One of the favored methods for uncertainty
+ assessment in rainfall-runoff modeling is the generalized likelihood
+ uncertainty estimation (GLUE). However, some fundamental questions
+ related to its application remain unresolved. One such question is
+ that GLUE relies on some explicit and implicit assumptions, and it
+ is not fully clear how these may affect the uncertainty estimation
+ when referring to large samples of data. The purpose of this study
+ is to address this issue by assessing how GLUE performs in detecting
+ uncertainty in the simulation of long series of synthetic river flows.
+ The study aims to (1) discuss the hypotheses underlying GLUE and
+ derive indications about their effects on the uncertainty estimation,
+ and (2) compare the GLUE prediction limits with a large sample of
+ data that is to be simulated in the presence of known sources of
+ uncertainty. The analysis shows that the prediction limits provided
+ by GLUE do not necessarily include a percentage close to their confidence
+ level of the observed data. In fact, in all the experiments, GLUE
+ underestimates the total uncertainty of the simulation provided by
+ the hydrological model},
+ doi = {10.1029/2004WR003826},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{montanari2012,
+ author = {Montanari, A. and Koutsoyiannis, D.},
+ title = {A blueprint for process-based modeling of uncertaint hydrological
+ systems},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2012},
+ volume = {48},
+ pages = {W09555},
+ abstract = {We present a probability based theoretical scheme for building process-based
+ models of uncertain hydrological systems, thereby unifying hydrological
+ modeling and uncertainty assessment. Uncertainty for the model output
+ is assessed by estimating the related probability distribution via
+ simulation, thus shifting from one to many applications of the selected
+ hydrological model. Each simulation is performed after stochastically
+ perturbing input data, parameters and model output, this latter by
+ adding random outcomes from the population of the model error, whose
+ probability distribution is conditioned on input data and model parameters.
+ Within this view randomness, and therefore uncertainty, is treated
+ as an inherent property of hydrological systems. We discuss the related
+ assumptions as well as the open research questions. The theoretical
+ framework is illustrated by presenting real-world and synthetic applications.
+ The relevant contribution of this study is related to proposing a
+ statistically consistent simulation framework for uncertainty estimation
+ which does not require model likelihood computation and simplification
+ of the model structure. The results show that uncertainty is satisfactorily
+ estimated although the impact of the assumptions could be significant
+ in conditions of data scarcity.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2011WR011412},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.10.11}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{montgomery2003,
+ author = {Montgomery, E. and Rosko, M. and Castro, S. and Keller, B. and Bevacqua,
+ P.},
+ title = {Interbasin underflow between closed altiplano basins in {Chile}},
+ journal = {Ground Water},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {41},
+ pages = {523--531},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {Interbasin ground water movement of 200 to 240 L/sec occurs as underflow
+ beneath a mountainous surface water divide separating the topographically
+ higher Salar de Michincha from the topographically lower Salar de
+ Coposa internally drained basins in the Altiplano of northern Chile.
+ Salt-encrusted flats (salars) and saline lakes occur on the lowest
+ parts of the basin floors and comprise the principal evaporative
+ discharge areas for the basins. Because a surface water divide separates
+ the basins, surface water drainage boundaries do not coincide with
+ ground water drainage boundaries. In the region, interbasin ground
+ water movement is usually not recognized, but occurs for selected
+ basins, and at places is an important component of ground water budgets.
+ With increasing development of water for mining industry and potential
+ exportation of ground water from the Altiplano for use at coastal
+ cities, demonstration and quantification of interbasin movement is
+ important for assessment of sustainable ground water development
+ in a region of extreme aridity. Recognition and quantification of
+ interbasin ground water underflow will assist in management of ground
+ water resources in the arid Chilean Altiplano environment.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1745-6584.2003.tb02386.x},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{moore2006,
+ author = {Moore, C. and Doherty, J.},
+ title = {The cost of uniqueness in groundwater model calibration},
+ journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {29},
+ pages = {605--623},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {Calibration of a groundwater model requires that hydraulic properties
+ be estimated throughout a model domain. This generally constitutes
+ an underdetermined inverse problem, for which a solution can only
+ be found when some kind of regularization device is included in the
+ inversion process. Inclusion of regularization in the calibration
+ process can be implicit, for example through the use of zones of
+ constant parameter value, or explicit, for example through solution
+ of a constrained minimization problem in which parameters are made
+ to respect preferred values, or preferred relationships, to the degree
+ necessary for a unique solution to be obtained. The “cost of uniquenessâ€
+ is this: no matter which regularization methodology is employed,
+ the inevitable consequence of its use is a loss of detail in the
+ calibrated field. This, in turn, can lead to erroneous predictions
+ made by a model that is ostensibly “well calibratedâ€. Information
+ made available as a by-product of the regularized inversion process
+ allows the reasons for this loss of detail to be better understood.
+ In particular, it is easily demonstrated that the estimated value
+ for an hydraulic property at any point within a model domain is,
+ in fact, a weighted average of the true hydraulic property over a
+ much larger area. This averaging process causes loss of resolution
+ in the estimated field. Where hydraulic conductivity is the hydraulic
+ property being estimated, high averaging weights exist in areas that
+ are strategically disposed with respect to measurement wells, while
+ other areas may contribute very little to the estimated hydraulic
+ conductivity at any point within the model domain, this possibly
+ making the detection of hydraulic conductivity anomalies in these
+ latter areas almost impossible. A study of the post-calibration parameter
+ field covariance matrix allows further insights into the loss of
+ system detail incurred through the calibration process to be gained.
+ A comparison of pre- and post-calibration parameter covariance matrices
+ shows that the latter often possess a much smaller spectral bandwidth
+ than the former. It is also demonstrated that, as an inevitable consequence
+ of the fact that a calibrated model cannot replicate every detail
+ of the true system, model-to-measurement residuals can show a high
+ degree of spatial correlation, a fact which must be taken into account
+ when assessing these residuals either qualitatively, or quantitatively
+ in the exploration of model predictive uncertainty. These principles
+ are demonstrated using a synthetic case in which spatial parameter
+ definition is based on pilot points, and calibration is implemented
+ using both zones of piecewise constancy and constrained minimization
+ regularization.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.advwatres.2005.07.003},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.07.16}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{moore2005,
+ author = {Moore, C. and Doherty, J.},
+ title = {Role of the calibration process in reducing model predictive error},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {41},
+ pages = {W05020},
+ abstract = {An equation is derived through which the variance of predictive error
+ of a calibrated model can be calculated. This equation has two terms.
+ The first term represents the contribution to predictive error variance
+ that results from an inability of the calibration process to capture
+ all of the parameterization detail necessary for the making of an
+ accurate prediction. If a model is “uncalibrated,†with parameter
+ values being supplied solely through “outside information,†this
+ is the only term required. The second term represents the contribution
+ to predictive error variance arising from measurement noise. In an
+ overdetermined system, such as that which may be obtained through
+ “parameter lumping†(e.g., through the introduction of a spatial
+ zonation scheme), this is the only term required. It is shown, however,
+ that parameter lumping is a form of “implicit regularization†and
+ that ignoring the implied first term of the predictive error variance
+ equation can potentially lead to underestimation of predictive error
+ variance. A model's role as a predictor of environmental behavior
+ can be enhanced if it is calibrated in such a way as to reduce the
+ variance of those predictions which it is required to make. It is
+ shown that in some circumstances this can be accomplished through
+ “overfitting†against historical field data. It can also be accomplished
+ by giving greater weight to those measurements which carry the greatest
+ information content with respect to a required prediction. This suggests
+ that a departure may be necessary from the custom of using a single
+ “calibrated model†for the making of many different predictions.
+ Instead, model calibration may need to be repeated many times so
+ that in each case the calibration process is optimized for the making
+ of a specific model prediction.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2004WR003501},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.02.12}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{moradkhanil2008,
+ author = {Moradkhani, H. and Hsu, K. and Sorooshian, S.},
+ title = {How to improve the hydrologic predictability: {F}rom {B}ayesian model
+ averaging to sequential {B}ayesian model combination},
+ journal = {Geophysical Research Abstracts},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {10},
+ pages = {1--2},
+ number = {EGU2008-A-11553},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19},
+ url = {http://meetings.copernicus.org/www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU2008/11553/EGU2008-A-11553.pdf}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{mori2012,
+ author = {Koichiro Mori and Charles Perrings},
+ title = {Optimal management of the flood risks of floodplain development},
+ journal = {Science of The Total Environment},
+ year = {2012},
+ volume = {431},
+ pages = {109--121},
+ number = {0},
+ abstract = {This paper presents a model of the problem on floodplain development,
+ exploring the conditions that are both necessary and sufficient for
+ development to be optimal. The model is calibrated for a particular
+ catchment, the Ouse catchment in the United Kingdom, and is used
+ both to estimate the expected impact of floodplain development and
+ to explore the impact of alternative policy instruments. We find
+ that the use of price-based instruments that signal the expected
+ flood damage cost of floodplain development has the potential to
+ lead to outcomes close to the social optimum. The finding is robust
+ to two types of uncertainty: model error about the relation between
+ precipitation and flood-risk and measurement error about the benefits
+ of developed floodplains.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.04.076},
+ issn = {0048-9697},
+ keywords = {Floodplain development}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{moriasi+al2007,
+ author = {Moriasi, D. and Arnold, J. and {Van Liew}, M. and Binger, R. and
+ Harmel, R. and Veith, T.},
+ title = {Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy
+ in watershed simulations },
+ journal = {Transactions of the ASABE},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {50},
+ pages = {885--900},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {Watershed models are powerful tools for simulating the effect of watershed
+ processes and management on soil and water resources. However, no
+ comprehensive guidance is available to facilitate model evaluation
+ in terms of the accuracy of simulated data compared to measured flow
+ and constituent values. Thus, the objectives of this research were
+ to: (1) determine recommended model evaluation techniques (statistical
+ and graphical), (2) review reported ranges of values and corresponding
+ performance ratings for the recommended statistics, and (3) establish
+ guidelines for model evaluation based on the review results and project-specific
+ considerations; all of these objectives focus on simulation of streamflow
+ and transport of sediment and nutrients. These objectives were achieved
+ with a thorough review of relevant literature on model application
+ and recommended model evaluation methods. Based on this analysis,
+ we recommend that three quantitative statistics, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency
+ (NSE), percent bias (PBIAS), and ratio of the root mean square error
+ to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR), in addition to
+ the graphical techniques, be used in model evaluation. The following
+ model evaluation performance ratings were established for each recommended
+ statistic. In general, model simulation can be judged as satisfactory
+ if NSE > 0.50 and RSR < 0.70, and if PBIAS + 25\% for streamflow,
+ PBIAS + 55\% for sediment, and PBIAS + 70\% for N and P. For PBIAS,
+ constituent-specific performance ratings were determined based on
+ uncertainty of measured data. Additional considerations related to
+ model evaluation guidelines are also discussed. These considerations
+ include: single-event simulation, quality and quantity of measured
+ data, model calibration procedure, evaluation time step, and project
+ scope and magnitude. A case study illustrating the application of
+ the model evaluation guidelines is also provided. },
+ bibkey = {SWAT; Nash-Sutcliffe; NSE},
+ tags = {Calibration, Goodness-of-Fit},
+ url = {http://asae.frymulti.com/abstract.asp?aid=23153&t=1}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{morris1991,
+ author = {Morris, M.},
+ title = {Factorial sampling plans for preliminary computational experiments},
+ journal = {Technometrics},
+ year = {1991},
+ volume = {33},
+ pages = {161--174},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {A computational model is a representation of some physical or other
+ system of interest, first expressed mathematically and then implemented
+ in the form of a computer program; it may be viewed as a function
+ of inputs that, when evaluated, produces outputs. Motivation for
+ this article comes from computational models that are deterministic,
+ complicated enough to make classical mathematical analysis impractical
+ and that have a moderate-to-large number of inputs. The problem of
+ designing computational experiments to determine which inputs have
+ important effects on an output is considered. The proposed experimental
+ plans are composed of individually randomized one-factor-at-a-time
+ designs, and data analysis is based on the resulting random sample
+ of observed elementary effects, those changes in an output due solely
+ to changes in a particular input. Advantages of this approach include
+ a lack of reliance on assumptions of relative sparsity of important
+ inputs, monotonicity of outputs with respect to inputs, or adequacy
+ of a low-order polynomial as an approximation to the computational
+ model.},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.10.10},
+ url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/1269043}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{morseetal2003,
+ author = {Morse, B. and Pohll, G. and Huntington, J. and Rodriguez, R.},
+ title = {Stochastic capture zone analysis of an arsenic--contaminated well
+ using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimator ({GLUE}) methodology},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {39},
+ pages = {1151--1163},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {In 1992, Mexican researchers discovered concentrations of arsenic
+ in excess of World Heath Organization (WHO) standards in several
+ municipal wells in the Zimapan Valley of Mexico. This study describes
+ a method to delineate a capture zone for one of the most highly contaminated
+ wells to aid in future well siting. A stochastic approach was used
+ to model the capture zone because of the high level of uncertainty
+ in several input parameters. Two stochastic techniques were performed
+ and compared: “standard†Monte Carlo analysis and the generalized
+ likelihood uncertainty estimator (GLUE) methodology. The GLUE procedure
+ differs from standard Monte Carlo analysis in that it incorporates
+ a goodness of fit (termed a likelihood measure) in evaluating the
+ model. This allows for more information (in this case, head data)
+ to be used in the uncertainty analysis, resulting in smaller prediction
+ uncertainty. Two likelihood measures are tested in this study to
+ determine which are in better agreement with the observed heads.
+ While the standard Monte Carlo approach does not aid in parameter
+ estimation, the GLUE methodology indicates best fit models when hydraulic
+ conductivity is approximately 10?6.5 m/s, with vertically isotropic
+ conditions and large quantities of interbasin flow entering the basin.
+ Probabilistic isochrones (capture zone boundaries) are then presented,
+ and as predicted, the GLUE-derived capture zones are significantly
+ smaller in area than those from the standard Monte Carlo approach.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2002WR001470},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{moss+al2010,
+ author = {Moss, R. and Edmonds, J. and Hibbard, K. and Manning, M. and Rose,
+ S. and {van Vuuren}, D. and Carter, T. and Emori, S. and Kainuma,
+ M. and Kram, T. and Meehl, G. and Mitchell, J. and Nakicenovic, N.
+ and Riahi, K. and Smith, S. and Stouffer, R. and Thomson, A. and
+ Weyant, J. and Wilbanks, T.},
+ title = {The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and
+ assessment},
+ journal = {Nature},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {463},
+ pages = {747--756},
+ number = {7282},
+ abstract = {Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing
+ a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth’s
+ climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences.
+ The implications of climate change for the environment and society
+ will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes
+ in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through
+ changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive
+ uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate
+ change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore
+ the potential consequences of different response options. To date,
+ such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities,
+ such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied
+ on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among
+ physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new
+ process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the
+ most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting
+ the global community.},
+ doi = {10.1038/nature08823},
+ pmid = {20148028},
+ tags = {Scenarios}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{moussa2010,
+ author = {Moussa, R.},
+ title = {When monstrosity can be beautiful while normality can be ugly: assessing
+ the performance of event-based flood models},
+ journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {55},
+ pages = {1074--1084},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {The significance of the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) is analysed
+ and a new method to assess the performance of flood event models
+ proposed. The focus is on the specific cases of events that are difficult
+ to model and characterized by low NSE values, which we call {``}monsters{''}.
+ The properties of the NSE were analysed as a function of the calculated
+ hydrograph shape and of the benchmark reference model. The results
+ show that a {``}monster{''} can be due solely to a simple lag translation
+ or a homothetic ratio which reproduces the dynamic of the hydrograph,
+ with acceptable errors on other criteria. In the opposite case, good
+ simulations characterized by NSE close to 1 can become {``}monsters{''}
+ if the average observed discharge used as a benchmark reference model
+ in the NSE is modified. Finally, a multi-criteria analysis method
+ to assess the model performance on each event is proposed and applied
+ on the Gardon d'Anduze catchment, in France. },
+ doi = {10.1080/02626667.2010.505893},
+ keywords = {flood event model, performance criteria function, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency,
+ multi-criteria performance analysis },
+ tags = {Goodness-of-Fit, Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{moussachahinian2009,
+ author = {Moussa, R. and Chahinian, N.},
+ title = {Comparison of different multi-objective calibration criteria using
+ a conceptual rainfall-runoff model of flood events},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {13},
+ pages = {519--535},
+ abstract = {A conceptual lumped rainfall-runoff flood event model was developed
+ and applied on the Gardon catchment located in Southern France and
+ various single-objective and multi-objective functions were used
+ for its calibration. The model was calibrated on 15 events and validated
+ on 14 others. The results of both the calibration and validation
+ phases are compared on the basis of their performance with regards
+ to six criteria, three global criteria and three relative criteria
+ representing volume, peakflow, and the root mean square error. The
+ first type of criteria gives more weight to large events whereas
+ the second considers all events to be of equal weight. The results
+ show that the calibrated parameter values are dependent on the type
+ of criteria used. Significant trade-offs are observed between the
+ different objectives: no unique set of parameters is able to satisfy
+ all objectives simultaneously. Instead, the solution to the calibration
+ problem is given by a set of Pareto optimal solutions. From this
+ set of optimal solutions, a balanced aggregated objective function
+ is proposed, as a compromise between up to three objective functions.
+ The single-objective and multi-objective calibration strategies are
+ compared both in terms of parameter variation bounds and simulation
+ quality. The results of this study indicate that two well chosen
+ and non-redundant objective functions are sufficient to calibrate
+ the model and that the use of three objective functions does not
+ necessarily yield different results. The problems of non-uniqueness
+ in model calibration, and the choice of the adequate objective functions
+ for flood event models, emphasise the importance of the modeller's
+ intervention. The recent advances in automatic optimisation techniques
+ do not minimise the user's responsibility, who has to choose multiple
+ criteria based on the aims of the study, his appreciation on the
+ errors induced by data and model structure and his knowledge of the
+ catchment's hydrology.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-13-519-2009},
+ keywords = {MULTICRITERIA OPTIMIZATION, AUTOMATIC CALIBRATION, HYDROLOGIC-MODELS,
+ MULTIPLE OBJECTIVES, GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION, CATCHMENT, UNCERTAINTY,
+ ALGORITHMS, EFFICIENT, VALIDATION},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{moussa+al2007,
+ author = {Moussa, R. and Chahinianb, N. and Bocquillon, C.},
+ title = {Distributed hydrological modelling of a {M}editerranean mountainous
+ catchment - Model construction and multi-site validation},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {337},
+ pages = {35--51},
+ number = {1-2},
+ abstract = {A multi-site validation approach is necessary to further constrain
+ distributed hydrological models. Such an approach has been tested
+ on the Gardon catchment located in the mountainous Mediterranean
+ zone of southern France using data gathered over a 10 year period
+ on nine internal subcatchments. A spatially distributed hydrological
+ model linked to a Geographical Information System, was developed
+ on the basis of simplified physical process representations (infiltration,
+ evapotranspiration, base flow, interflow, overland flow, channel
+ routing), using conventional hydro-meteorological data and readily
+ accessible geographical maps. The model parameters were estimated
+ from a Digital Elevation Model, soil and land-use maps; and only
+ five parameters were calibrated for the whole catchment. Three procedures
+ with different levels of calibration and validation were conducted
+ at a daily time step, and the results of both calibration and validation
+ were compared on the basis of their performance with regards to objective
+ criteria representing the water balance, the Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency
+ and the correlation coefficient. The first application corresponds
+ to the case of an ungauged catchment i.e. a simple application of
+ the model without calibration. In the second application, the model
+ was calibrated using discharge values measured at the outlet on the
+ first five year period and validated using data from intermediate
+ gauging stations and on the remaining period at the outlet. In the
+ third application, a multi-site calibration and validation was conducted
+ simultaneously for all available stations using the first five year
+ period and validated on the second five year period for all stations.
+ Calibration against the outlet station and internal validation against
+ eight additional stations revealed some short-comings for a few upstream
+ tributaries. Further calibration against additional discharge stations
+ improved the model{'}s performance at the subcatchment level. These
+ different calibration and validation tests challenge the predictive
+ capability of the model both at the catchment and subcatchment level
+ and hence illustrate the model{'}s possible improvements (structure,
+ data and parameterisation strategy) for predictions on ungauged catchments},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.01.028},
+ keywords = {Spatially distributed hydrological model, Mediterranean mountainous
+ catchment, Model calibration and validation, Multi-site approach,
+ Parameterisation},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{mroczkowski+al1997,
+ author = {Mroczkowski,M. and Raper, G. and Kuczera, G.},
+ title = {The quest for more powerful validation of conceptual catchment models},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1997},
+ volume = {33},
+ pages = {2325--2335},
+ number = {10},
+ abstract = {The power of a validation strategy (that is, its ability to discriminate
+ between good and bad model hypotheses) depends on what kind of data
+ are available and how the data are used to challenge the hypothesis.
+ Several validation strategies are examined from the perspective of
+ power and practical applicability. It is argued that validation using
+ multiresponse data in a catchment experiencing a shift in hydrologie
+ regime due to disturbance or extreme climatic inputs is a considerably
+ more powerful strategy than traditional split-sample testing using
+ streamflow data alone in undisturbed catchments. A case study testing
+ two model hypotheses is presented using paired catchments for which
+ multiple-response data in the form of streamflow, stream chloride,
+ and groundwater levels were available. The first catchment, Salmon,
+ was maintained as an established forest, while the second, Wights,
+ was clear-felled and converted to pasture about 3 years after monitoring
+ started. The hypotheses consider the same lumped hydrosalinity model
+ with the first (H1) excluding a groundwater discharge zone and the
+ second (H2) including it. It was found that even with three concurrent
+ responses from the undisturbed Salmon catchment, H1 could not be
+ rejected, leaving an important part of the model conceptualization
+ unidentified. Moreover, a streamflow split-sample test for the disturbed
+ Wights catchment failed to conclusively reject H1; parameters could
+ be found which accurately tracked the streamflow changes following
+ forest clearing yet produced erroneous simulations of responses such
+ as stream chloride and groundwater storage. It was only when H1 was
+ subjected to the scrutiny of three catchment responses from the disturbed
+ Wights catchment that it could be rejected. This highlights the importance
+ of challenging model hypotheses under the most demanding of tests,
+ which, in this study, coincided with multiple-response validation
+ in a disturbed catchment},
+ doi = {10.1029/97WR01922},
+ tags = {conceptual model, Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{mudelsee+al2003,
+ author = {Mudelsee, M. and B\"orngen, M. and Tetzlaff, G. and Gr\"unewald,
+ U.},
+ title = {No upward trends in the occurence of extreme floods in central Europe},
+ journal = {Nature},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {425},
+ pages = {166--169},
+ number = {6954},
+ doi = {10.1038/nature01928},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.08.01}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{mugunthan2006,
+ author = {Mugunthan, P. and Shoemaker, C.},
+ title = {Assessing the impacts of parameter uncertainty for computationally
+ expensive groundwater models},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {42},
+ pages = {W10427},
+ number = {10},
+ abstract = {The velocity reversal hypothesis is commonly cited as a mechanism
+ for the maintenance of pool-riffle morphology. Although this hypothesis
+ is based on the magnitude of mean flow parameters, recent studies
+ have suggested that mean parameters are not sufficient to explain
+ the dominant processes in many pool-riffle sequences. In this study,
+ two- and three-dimensional models are applied to simulate flow in
+ the pool-riffle sequence on Dry Creek, California, where the velocity
+ reversal hypothesis was first proposed. These simulations provide
+ an opportunity to evaluate the hydrodynamics underlying the observed
+ reversals in near-bed and section-averaged velocity and are used
+ to investigate the influence of secondary currents, the advection
+ of momentum, and cross-stream flow variability. The simulation results
+ support the occurrence of a reversal in mean velocity and mean shear
+ stress with increasing discharge. However, the results indicate that
+ the effects of flow convergence due to an upstream constriction and
+ the routing of flow through the system are more significant in influencing
+ pool-riffle morphology than the occurrence of a mean velocity reversal.
+ The hypothesis of flow convergence routing is introduced as a more
+ meaningful explanation of the mechanisms acting to maintain pool-riffle
+ morphology.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2005WR004391},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{muletanicklow2005,
+ author = {Muleta, M. and Nicklow, J.},
+ title = {Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis coupled with automatic calibration
+ for a distributed watershed model},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {306},
+ pages = {127--145},
+ number = {1-4},
+ abstract = {Distributed watershed models should pass through a careful calibration
+ procedure before they are utilized as a decision making aid in the
+ planning and management of water resources. Although manual approaches
+ are still frequently used for calibration, the), are tedious, time
+ consuming, and require experienced personnel. This paper describes
+ an automatic approach for calibrating daily streamflow and daily
+ sediment concentration values estimated by the US Department of Agriculture's
+ distributed watershed simulation model, Soil and Water Assessment
+ Tool (SWAT). The automatic calibration methodology applies a hierarchy
+ of three techniques, namely screening, parameterization, and parameter
+ sensitivity analysis, at the parameter identification stage of model
+ calibration. The global parameter sensitivity analysis is conducted
+ using a stepwise regression analysis on rank-transformed input-output
+ data pairs. Latin hypercube sampling is used to generate input data
+ from the assigned distributions and ranges, and parameter estimation
+ is performed using genetic algorithm. The Generalized Likelihood
+ Uncertainty Estimation methodology is subsequently implemented to
+ investigate uncertainty of model estimates, accounting for errors
+ due to model structure, input data and model parameters. To demonstrate
+ their effectiveness, the parameter identification, parameter estimation,
+ model verification, and uncertainty analysis techniques are applied
+ to a watershed located in southern Illinois. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V.
+ All rights reserved.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.09.005},
+ keywords = {SWAT, sensitivity analysis, automatic calibration, uncertainty analysis,
+ model verification, genetic algorithms, distributed watershed model,
+ HYDROLOGICAL MODELS, GLUE METHODOLOGY, VALIDATION, EQUIFINALITY,
+ PREDICTION, RUNOFF, OUTPUT, POINT},
+ tags = {SWAT, Sensitivity Analysis, Calibration, Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{murphy2000,
+ author = {Murphy, J.},
+ title = {Predictions of climate change over {E}urope using statistical and
+ dynamical downscaling techniques},
+ journal = {Journal of Climatology},
+ year = {2000},
+ volume = {20},
+ pages = {489--501},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {Statistical and dynamical downscaling predictions of changes in surface
+ temperature and precipitation for 2080-2100, relative to pre-industrial
+ conditions, are compared at 976 European observing sites, for January
+ and July. Two dynamical downscaling methods are considered, involving
+ the use of surface temperature or precipitation simulated at the
+ nearest grid point in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation
+ model (GCM) of resolution 300 km and a 50 km regional climate model
+ (RCM) nested inside the GCM. The statistical method (STAT) is based
+ on observed linear regression relationships between surface temperature
+ or precipitation and a range of atmospheric predictor variables.
+ The three methods are equally plausible a priori, in the sense that
+ they estimate present-day natural variations with equal skill. For
+ temperature, differences between the RCM and GCM predictions are
+ quite small. Larger differences occur between STAT and the dynamical
+ predictions. For precipitation, there is a wide spread between all
+ three methods. Differences between the RCM and GCM are increased
+ by the meso-scale detail present in the RCM. Uncertainties in the
+ downscaling predictions are investigated by using the STAT method
+ to estimate the grid point changes simulated by the GCM, based on
+ regression relationships trained using simulated rather than observed
+ values of the predictor and the predictand variables (i.e. STAT-SIM).
+ In most areas the temperature changes predicted by STAT-SIM and the
+ GCM itself are similar, indicating that the statistical relationships
+ trained from present climate anomalies remain valid in the perturbed
+ climate. However, STAT-SIM underestimates the surface warming in
+ areas where advective predictors are important predictors of natural
+ variability but not of climate change. For precipitation, STAT-SIM
+ estimates the simulated changes with lower skill, especially in January
+ when increases in simulated precipitation related to a moister atmosphere
+ are not captured. This occurs because moisture is rarely a strong
+ enough predictor of natural variability to be included in the specification
+ equation. The predictor/predictand relationships found in the GCM
+ do not always match those found in observations. In January, the
+ link between surface and lower tropospheric temperature is too strong.
+ This is also true in July, when the links between precipitation and
+ various atmospheric predictors are also too strong. These biases
+ represent a likely source of error in both dynamical and statistical
+ downscaling predictions. For example, simulated reductions in precipitation
+ over southern Europe in summer may be too large},
+ doi = {10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(200004)20:5<489::AID-JOC484>3.0.CO;2-6},
+ keywords = {Climate modification, Forecasting, Statistical method, Dynamic method,
+ Scale reduction, Atmospheric precipitation, Surface temperature,
+ Ocean atmosphere interaction, Numerical simulation, Europe, General
+ circulation models, Climate models},
+ tags = {Downscaling}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{murphy1999,
+ author = {Murphy, J.},
+ title = {An evaluation of statistical and dynamical techniques for downscaling
+ local climate},
+ journal = {Journal of Climate},
+ year = {1999},
+ volume = {12},
+ pages = {2256--2284},
+ number = {8},
+ abstract = {An assessment is made of downscaling estimates of screen temperature
+ and precipitation observed at 976 European stations during 1983-94.
+ A statistical downscaling technique, in which local values are inferred
+ from observed atmospheric predictor variables, is compared against
+ two dynamical downscaling techniques, based on the use of the screen
+ temperature or precipitation simulated at the nearest grid point
+ in integrations of two climate models. In one integration a global
+ general circulation model (GCM) is constrained to reproduce the observed
+ atmospheric circulation over the period of interest, while the second
+ involves a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) nested inside
+ the GCM.},
+ doi = {10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2256:AEOSAD>2.0.CO;2},
+ keywords = {GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL, DAILY PRECIPITATION SERIES, ATMOSPHERIC
+ CIRCULATION, SURFACE CLIMATOLOGY, DAILY VARIABILITY, UNITED-STATES,
+ WATER CLOUDS, SIMULATION, EUROPE, GCM},
+ tags = {Downscaling}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{murphy+al2004,
+ author = {Murphy, J. and Sexton, D. and Barnett, D. and Jones, G. and Webb,
+ M. and Collins, M.},
+ title = {Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of
+ climate change simulations},
+ journal = {Nature},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {430},
+ pages = {768--772},
+ number = {7001},
+ abstract = {Comprehensive global climate models(1) are the only tools that account
+ for the complex set of processes which will determine future climate
+ change at both a global and regional level. Planners are typically
+ faced with a wide range of predicted changes from different models
+ of unknown relative quality(2,3), owing to large but unquantified
+ uncertainties in the modelling process(4). Here we report a systematic
+ attempt to determine the range of climate changes consistent with
+ these uncertainties, based on a 53-member ensemble of model versions
+ constructed by varying model parameters. We estimate a probability
+ density function for the sensitivity of climate to a doubling of
+ atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, and obtain a 5 - 95 per cent probability
+ range of 2.4-5.4degreesC. Our probability density function is constrained
+ by objective estimates of the relative reliability of different model
+ versions, the choice of model parameters that are varied and their
+ uncertainty ranges, specified on the basis of expert advice. Our
+ ensemble produces a range of regional changes much wider than indicated
+ by traditional methods based on scaling the response patterns of
+ an individual simulation(5,6).},
+ doi = {10.1038/nature02771},
+ keywords = {AVERAGING REA METHOD, SENSITIVITY, CONSTRAINTS, PROJECTIONS, PROBABILITY,
+ RELIABILITY, PREDICTION, WEATHER},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, Impacts, Thesis}
+}
+
+@INPROCEEDINGS{mussi+al2009,
+ author = {Mussi, L. and Cagnoni, S. and Daolio, F.},
+ title = {Empirical assessment of the effects of update synchronization in
+ Particle Swarm Optimization},
+ booktitle = {Proceedings of the 2009 AIIA Workshop on Complexity, Evolution and
+ Emergent Intelligence},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {1},
+ pages = {1--10},
+ note = {Published on CD, isbn 978-88-903581-1-1},
+ abstract = {Despite considerable popularity, the mechanisms that govern the behavior
+ of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) are still a subject of research.
+ Regarding communication between particles, for example, many authors
+ have discussed the effects of swarm topology, but few have studied
+ the dynamics of the information exchange among particles. In this
+ paper we show that a synchronous update of the social attractors,
+ which is necessary when parallel versions of PSO are implemented,
+ may influence the effectiveness of the algorithm. To do so we compare
+ the synchronous and asynchronous variants of PSO on a standard benchmark.
+ The results show that the "global best" topology is sensitive to
+ the policy update, especially in the presence of high-dimensional
+ search spaces. In contrast, sparsely-connected topologies seem to
+ be much less sensitive to synchronization.},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.10.20}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{muttil2008,
+ author = {Muttil, N. and Jayawardena, A.},
+ title = {Shuffled Complex Evolution model calibration algorithm: enhancing
+ its robustness and efficiency},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {22},
+ pages = {4628--4638},
+ number = {23},
+ abstract = {Shuffled Complex Evolution—University of Arizona (SCE-UA) has been
+ used extensively and proved to be a robust and efficient global optimization
+ method for the calibration of conceptual models. In this paper, two
+ enhancements to the SCE-UA algorithm are proposed, one to improve
+ its exploration and another to improve its exploitation of the search
+ space. A strategically located initial population is used to improve
+ the exploration capability and a modification to the downhill simplex
+ search method enhances its exploitation capability. This enhanced
+ version of SCE-UA is tested, first on a suite of test functions and
+ then on a conceptual rainfall-runoff model using synthetically generated
+ runoff values. It is observed that the strategically located initial
+ population drastically reduces the number of failures and the modified
+ simplex search also leads to a significant reduction in the number
+ of function evaluations to reach the global optimum, when compared
+ with the original SCE-UA. Thus, the two enhancements significantly
+ improve the robustness and efficiency of the SCE-UA model calibrating
+ algorithm.},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.7082},
+ tags = {SWAT, Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{najafi+al2011,
+ author = {Najafi, M. and Moradkhani, H. and Jung, I.},
+ title = {Assessing the uncertainties of hydrologic model selection in climate
+ change impact studies},
+ journal = {Hydrologcial Processes},
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {25},
+ pages = {2814--2826},
+ number = {18},
+ abstract = {The uncertainties associated with atmosphere-ocean General Circulation
+ Models (GCMs) and hydrologic models are assessed by means of multi-modelling
+ and using the statistically downscaled outputs from eight GCM simulations
+ and two emission scenarios. The statistically downscaled atmospheric
+ forcing is used to drive four hydrologic models, three lumped and
+ one distributed, of differing complexity: the Sacramento Soil Moisture
+ Accounting (SAC-SMA) model, Conceptual HYdrologic MODel (HYMOD),
+ Thornthwaite-Mather model (TM) and the Precipitation Runoff Modelling
+ System (PRMS). The models are calibrated based on three objective
+ functions to create more plausible models for the study. The hydrologic
+ model simulations are then combined using the Bayesian Model Averaging
+ (BMA) method according to the performance of each models in the observed
+ period, and the total variance of the models. The study is conducted
+ over the rainfall-dominated Tualatin River Basin (TRB) in Oregon,
+ USA. This study shows that the hydrologic model uncertainty is considerably
+ smaller than GCM uncertainty, except during the dry season, suggesting
+ that the hydrologic model selection-combination is critical when
+ assessing the hydrologic climate change impact. The implementation
+ of the BMA in analysing the ensemble results is
+
+ found to be useful in integrating the projected runoff estimations
+ from different models, while enabling to assess the model structural
+ uncertainty.},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.8043},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.07.11}
+}
+
+@BOOK{nakicenovic+al2000,
+ title = {IPCC {S}pecial {R}eport on {E}missions {S}cenarios},
+ publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
+ year = {2000},
+ editor = {Nakicenovic, N. and Swart, R.},
+ author = {Nakicenovic, N. and Swart, R.},
+ address = {Cambridge, UK},
+ tags = {IPCC}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{nashsutcliffe1970,
+ author = {Nash, J. and Sutcliffe, J.},
+ title = {River flow forecasting through conceptual models. {P}art {I}--{A}
+ discussion of principles},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {1970},
+ volume = {10},
+ pages = {282--290},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {The principles governing the application of the conceptual model technique
+ to river flow forecasting are discussed. The necessity for a systematic
+ approach to the development and testing of the model is explained
+ and some preliminary ideas suggested.
+
+ This is the first of a series of papers which it is hoped to publish
+ from time to time reporting the results of the continuing work in
+ this field of the Institute of Hydrology, Wallingford, Berkshire,
+ U.K.},
+ doi = {10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{nasr+al2007,
+ author = {Nasr, A. and Bruen, M. and Jordan, P. and Moles, R. and Kiely, G.
+ and Byrne, P.},
+ title = {A comparison of {SWAT}, {HSPF} and {SHETRAN/GOPC} for modelling phosphorus
+ export from three catchments in {I}reland},
+ journal = {Water Research},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {41},
+ pages = {1065--1073},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {Recent extensive water quality surveys in Ireland revealed that diffuse
+ phosphorus (P) pollution originating from agricultural land and transported
+ by runoff and subsurface flows is the primary cause of the deterioration
+ of surface water quality. P transport from land to water can be described
+ by mathematical models that vary in modelling approach, complexity
+ and scale (plot, field and catchment). Here, three mathematical models
+ (soil water and analysis tools (SWAT), hydrological simulation program-FORTRAN
+ (HSPF) and systeme hydrologique Europeen TRANsport (SHETRAN)/grid
+ oriented phosphorus component (GOPC)) of diffuse P pollution have
+ been tested in three Irish catchments to explore their suitability
+ in Irish conditions for future use in implementing the European Water
+ Framework Directive. After calibrating the models, their daily flows
+ and total phosphorus (TP) exports are compared and assessed. The
+ HSPF model was the best at simulating the mean daily discharge while
+ SWAT gave the best calibration results for daily TP loads. Annual
+ TP exports for the three models and for two empirical models were
+ compared with measured data. No single model is consistently better
+ in estimating the annual TP export for all three catchments. (C)
+ 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2006.11.026},
+ keywords = {phosphorus, SWAT, HSPF, SHETRAN, GOPC, RIVERS, CALIBRATION, EVAPORATION,
+ MANAGEMENT},
+ pmid = {17258266},
+ tags = {SWAT}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{ndiritudaniell2001,
+ author = {Ndiritu, J. and Daniell, T.},
+ title = {An improved genetic algorithm for rainfall-runoff model calibration
+ and function optimization},
+ journal = {Mathematical and Computer Modelling},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {33},
+ pages = {695--706},
+ abstract = {The standard binary-coded genetic algorithm (GA) has been improved
+ using the three strategies of automatic search space shifting to
+ achieve hill-climbing, automatic search space reduction to effect
+ time-tuning, and the use of independent subpopulation searches coupled
+ with shuffling to deal with the occurrence of multiple regions of
+ attraction. The degrees of search space shifting and reduction are
+ determined by the distribution of the best parameter values in the
+ previous generations and are implemented after every specified number
+ of generations. If the best parameter value in successive generations
+ is clustering in a small part of the search range, a higher level
+ of range reduction is used. The search shift is based on the deviation
+ from the middle of the current search range of the best parameter
+ values of a specified number of previous generations. With each independent
+ subpopulation, a search is performed until an optimum is reached.
+ Shuffling is then performed and new subpopulation search spaces are
+ obtained from the shuffled subpopulations. The improved GA performs
+ remarkably better than the standard GA with three global optimum
+ location problems. The standard GA achieves 11\% success with the
+ Hartman function and fails totally with the SIXPAR rainfall-runoff
+ model calibration and the Griewank function while the improved GA
+ effectively locates the global optima. Taking the number of function
+ evaluations used to locate the global optimum as a measure of efficiency,
+ the improved GA is about two times less efficient, three times more
+ efficient, and 34 times less efficient than the shuffled complex
+ evolution (SCE-UA) method for the SIXPAR rainfall-runoff model calibration,
+ the Hartman function, and the Griewank function, respectively. The
+ modified GA can therefore be considered effective but not always
+ efficient. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0895-7177(00)00273-9 },
+ keywords = {fine-tuning, hillclimbing, independent subpopulation searches, genetic
+ algorithm, GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION, HYDROLOGICAL MODELS, VALIDATION},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{ndomba+al2008,
+ author = {Ndomba, P. and Mtalo, F. and Killingtveit, A.},
+ title = {{SWAT} model application in a data scarce tropical complex catchment
+ in {T}anzania},
+ journal = {Physics and Chemistry of the Earth},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {33},
+ pages = {626--632},
+ number = {8-13},
+ abstract = {This study intended to validate the Soil and Water Assessment Tool
+ (SWAT) model in data scarce environment in a complex tropical catchment
+ in the Pangani River Basin located in northeast Tanzania. The validation
+ process involved the model initialization, calibration, verification
+ and sensitivity analysis. Both manual and auto-calibration procedures
+ were used to facilitate the comparison of the results with past studies
+ in the same catchment. For this study, some model parameters including
+ Soil depth (SOL\_Z) and Saturated hydraulic conductivity (SOL-K)
+ were assumed uniform within the study catchment and were therefore
+ lumped comprising the huge computation resource requirement of the
+ SWAT model. Results indicated that the same set of important parameters
+ was identified with or without the use of observed flows data. Some
+ of the parameters had physical interpretation and could therefore
+ relate directly to hydrological controlling factors within the catchment.
+ Despite swapping ranking importance of parameters, these results
+ suggest the suitability of the SWAT model for identifying hydrological
+ controlling factors/parameters in ungauged catchments. Results of
+ calibration and validation at the daily timescale gave moderately
+ satisfactory Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) of 54.6\%
+ for calibration and 68\% for validation while simulated and observed
+ mean annual flow discharges gave an Index of Volumetric Fit (IVF)
+ of 100\%. The Study further indicated the improvement of model estimation
+ when more reliable spatial representation of rainfall was used. Although
+ in this study SWAT model has performed satisfactorily in data poor
+ and complex catchment, the authors recommend a wider validation effort
+ of the model before it is adopted for operational purpose. (c) 2008
+ Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.pce.2008.06.013},
+ keywords = {SWAT model, auto-calibration, sensitivity analysis, RAINFALL-RUNOFF
+ MODELS, AUTOMATIC CALIBRATION, SENSITIVITY},
+ tags = {SWAT}
+}
+
+@MANUAL{neitsch+al2005a,
+ title = {Soil and Water Assessment Tool Theoretical Documentation Version
+ 2005},
+ author = {Neitsch, S. and Arnold, J. and Kiniry, J. and Srinivasan, R. and
+ Williams, J.},
+ address = {Grassland, Soil and Water Research Laboratory; Agricultural Research
+ Service 808 East Blackland Road; Temple, Texas 76502; Blackland Research
+ \& Extension Center; Texas Agricultural Experiment Station 720 East
+ Blackland Road Temple, Texas 76502, USA},
+ year = {2005},
+ bibkey = {SWAT},
+ institution = {Grassland, Soil and Water Research Laboratory; Agricultural Research
+ Service},
+ tags = {SWAT},
+ url = {www.brc.tamus.edu/swat/doc.html}
+}
+
+@MANUAL{neitsch+al2005b,
+ title = {Soil and Water Assessment Tool Input/Output file documentation, Version
+ 2005},
+ author = {Neitsch, S. and Arnold, J. and Kiniry, J. and Srinivasan, R. and
+ Williams, J.},
+ address = {Grassland, Soil and Water Research Laboratory; Agricultural Research
+ Service 808 East Blackland Road; Temple, Texas 76502; Blackland Research
+ \& Extension Center; Texas Agricultural Experiment Station 720 East
+ Blackland Road Temple, Texas 76502, USA},
+ year = {2005},
+ institution = {Grassland, Soil and Water Research Laboratory; Agricultural Research
+ Service},
+ keywords = {SWAT},
+ tags = {SWAT},
+ url = {www.brc.tamus.edu/swat/doc.html}
+}
+
+@MANUAL{swat2005,
+ title = {Soil and water assessment tool - theoretical documentation (SWAT-2005)},
+ author = {Neitsch, S. and Arnold, J. and Kiniry, J. and Williams, J.},
+ organization = {Grassland, Soil and Water Research Laboratory - Blackland Research
+ Centre},
+ address = {Temple, Texas},
+ edition = {1st},
+ year = {2005},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.10.18},
+ url = {http://swatmodel.tamu.edu/media/1292/SWAT2005theory.pdf}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{neuman2004,
+ author = {Neuman, S.},
+ title = {Stochastic groundwater models in practice},
+ journal = {Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {18},
+ pages = {268--270},
+ number = {4},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00477-004-0192-6},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{neuman2003,
+ author = {Neuman, S.},
+ title = {Maximum likelihood {B}ayesian averaging of uncertain model predictions},
+ journal = {Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {17},
+ pages = {291-305},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {Hydrologic analyses typically rely on a single conceptual-mathematical
+ model. Yet hydrologic environments are open and complex, rendering
+ them prone to multiple interpretations and mathematical descriptions.
+ Adopting only one of these may lead to statistical bias and underestimation
+ of uncertainty. A comprehensive strategy for constructing alternative
+ conceptual-mathematical models of subsurface flow and transport,
+ selecting the best among them, and using them jointly to render optimum
+ predictions under uncertainty has recently been developed by Neuman
+ and Wierenga (2003). This paper describes a key formal element of
+ this much broader and less formal strategy that concerns rendering
+ optimum hydrologic predictions by means of several competing deterministic
+ or stochastic models and assessing their joint predictive uncertainty.
+ The paper proposes a Maximum Likelihood Bayesian Model Averaging
+ (MLBMA) method to accomplish this goal. MLBMA incorporates both site
+ characterization and site monitoring data so as to base the outcome
+ on an optimum combination of prior information (scientific knowledge
+ plus data) and model predictions. A preliminary example based on
+ real data is included in the paper.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00477-003-0151-7},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{neumanwierenga2003,
+ author = {Neuman, S. and Wierenga, P.},
+ title = {A comprehensive strategy of hydrogeologic modeling and uncertainty
+ analysis for nuclear facilities and sites},
+ institution = {US Nuclear Regulatory Commission},
+ year = {2003},
+ type = {Report NUREG/CR-6805},
+ address = {Washington USA},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{newhulme2000,
+ author = {New, M. and Hulme, M.},
+ title = {Representing uncertainties in climate change scenarios: {A} {M}onte
+ {C}arlo approach},
+ journal = {Integrated Assessment},
+ year = {2000},
+ volume = {1},
+ pages = {203--213},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {Climate change impact assessment is subject to a range of uncertainties
+ due to both incomplete and unknowable knowledge. This paper presents
+ an approach to quantifying some of these uncertainties within a probabilistic
+ framework. A hierarchical impact model is developed that addresses
+ uncertainty about future greenhouse gas emissions, the climate sensitivity,
+ and limitations and unpredictability in general circulation models.
+ The hierarchical model is used in Bayesian Monte-Carlo simulations
+ to define posterior probability distributions for changes in seasonal-mean
+ temperature and precipitation over the United Kingdom that are conditional
+ on prior distributions for the model parameters. The application
+ of this approach to an impact model is demonstrated using a hydrological
+ example},
+ doi = {10.1023/A:1019144202120},
+ keywords = {cascade of uncertainty},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, Scenarios}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{new+al2000,
+ author = {New, M. and Hulme, M. and Jones, P.},
+ title = {{Representing twentieth-century space–time climate variability. Part
+ II: Development of 1901–96 monthly grids of terrestrial surface climate}},
+ journal = {Journal of Climate},
+ year = {2000},
+ volume = {13},
+ pages = {2217--2238},
+ number = {13},
+ abstract = {The authors describe the construction of a 0.5° lat–long gridded dataset
+ of monthly terrestrial surface climate for the period of 1901–96.
+ The dataset comprises a suite of seven climate elements: precipitation,
+ mean temperature, diurnal temperature range, wet-day frequency, vapor
+ pressure, cloud cover, and ground frost frequency. The spatial coverage
+ extends over all land areas, including oceanic islands but excluding
+ Antarctica. Fields of monthly climate anomalies, relative to the
+ 1961–90 mean, were interpolated from surface climate data. The anomaly
+ grids were then combined with a 1961–90 mean monthly climatology
+ (described in Part I) to arrive at grids of monthly climate over
+ the 96-yr period. The primary variables—precipitation, mean temperature,
+ and diurnal temperature range—were interpolated directly from station
+ observations. The resulting time series are compared with other coarser-resolution
+ datasets of similar temporal extent. The remaining climatic elements,
+ termed secondary variables, were interpolated from merged datasets
+ comprising station observations and, in regions where there were
+ no station data, synthetic data estimated using predictive relationships
+ with the primary variables. These predictive relationships are described
+ and evaluated. It is argued that this new dataset represents an advance
+ over other products because (i) it has higher spatial resolution
+ than other datasets of similar temporal extent, (ii) it has longer
+ temporal coverage than other products of similar spatial resolution,
+ (iii) it encompasses a more extensive suite of surface climate variables
+ than available elsewhere, and (iv) the construction method ensures
+ that strict temporal fidelity is maintained. The dataset should be
+ of particular relevance to a number of applications in applied climatology,
+ including large-scale biogeochemical and hydrological modeling, climate
+ change scenario construction, evaluation of regional climate models,
+ and comparison with satellite products. The dataset is available
+ from the Climatic Research Unit and is currently being updated to
+ 1998.},
+ doi = {10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<2217:RTCSTC>2.0.CO;2},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.03.29}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{nikulin2011,
+ author = {Nikulin, G. and Kjellstr\"om, E. and Hansson, U. and Strandberg,
+ G. and Ullerstig, A.},
+ title = {Evaluation and future projections of temperature, precipitation and
+ wind extremes over {E}urope in an ensemble of regional climate simulations},
+ journal = {Tellus {A}},
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {63},
+ pages = {41--55},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {Temperature, precipitation and wind extremes over Europe are examined
+ in an ensemble of RCA3 regional climate model simulations driven
+ by six different global climate models (ECHAM5, CCSM3, HadCM3, CNRM,
+ BCM and IPSL) under the SRES A1B emission scenario. The extremes
+ are expressed in terms of the 20-year return values of annual temperature
+ and wind extremes and seasonal precipitation extremes. The ensemble
+ shows reduction of recurrence time of warm extremes from 20 years
+ in 1961–1990 (CTL) to 1–2 years over southern Europe and to 5 years
+ over Scandinavia in 2071–2100 (SCN) while cold extremes, defined
+ for CTL, almost disappear in the future. The recurrence time of intense
+ precipitation reduces from 20 years in CTL to 6–10 years in SCN over
+ northern and central Europe in summer and even more to 2–4 years
+ in Scandinavia in winter. The projected changes in wind extremes
+ have a large spread among the six simulations with a disperse tendency
+ (1–2 m s?1) of strengthening north of 45°N and weakening south of
+ it which is sensitive to the number of simulations in the ensemble.
+ Changes in temperature extremes are more robust compared to those
+ in precipitation extremes while there is less confidence on changes
+ in wind extremes.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00466.x},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.21}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{nilsson2007,
+ author = {Nilsson, B. and H{\o}jberg, A. and Refsgaard, J. and Troldborg, L.},
+ title = {Uncertainty in geological and hydrogeological data},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {11},
+ pages = {1551--1561},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {Uncertainty in conceptual model structure and in environmental data
+ is of essential interest when dealing with uncertainty in water resources
+ management. To make quantification of uncertainty possible is it
+ necessary to identify and characterise the uncertainty in geological
+ and hydrogeological data. This paper discusses a range of available
+ techniques to describe the uncertainty related to geological model
+ structure and scale of support. Literature examples on uncertainty
+ in hydrogeological variables such as saturated hydraulic conductivity,
+ specific yield, specific storage, effective porosity and dispersivity
+ are given. Field data usually have a spatial and temporal scale of
+ support that is different from the one on which numerical models
+ for water resources management operate. Uncertainty in hydrogeological
+ data variables is characterised and assessed within the methodological
+ framework of the HarmoniRiB classification.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-11-1551-2007},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{nunes2008,
+ author = {Nunes, J. and Seixas, J. and Pacheco, R.},
+ title = {Vulnerability of water resources, vegetation productivity and soil
+ erosion to climate change in {M}editerranean watersheds},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {22},
+ pages = {3115--3134},
+ number = {16},
+ abstract = {Climate change is expected to increase temperatures and lower rainfall
+ in Mediterranean regions; however, there is a great degree of uncertainty
+ as to the amount of change. This limits the prediction capacity of
+ models to quantify impacts on water resources, vegetation productivity
+ and erosion. This work circumvents this problem by analysing the
+ sensitivity of these variables to varying degrees of temperature
+ change (increased by up to 6·4 °C), rainfall (reduced by up to 40%)
+ and atmospheric CO2 concentrations (increased by up to 100%). The
+ SWAT watershed model was applied to 18 large watersheds in two contrasting
+ regions of Portugal, one humid and one semi-arid; incremental changes
+ to climate variables were simulated using a stochastic weather generator.
+ The main results indicate that water runoff, particularly subsurface
+ runoff, is highly sensitive to these climate change trends (down
+ by 80%). The biomass growth of most species showed a declining trend
+ (wheat down by 40%), due to the negative impacts of increasing temperatures,
+ dampened by higher CO2 concentrations. Mediterranean species, however,
+ showed a positive response to milder degrees of climate change. Changes
+ to erosion depended on the interactions between the decline in surface
+ runoff (driving erosion rates downward) and biomass growth (driving
+ erosion rates upward). For the milder rainfall changes, soil erosion
+ showed a significant increasing trend in wheat fields (up to 150%
+ in the humid watersheds), well above the recovery capacity of the
+ soil. Overall, the results indicate a shift of the humid watersheds
+ to acquire semi-arid characteristics, such as more irregular river
+ flows and increasingly marginal conditions for agricultural production.},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.6897},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.21}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{olea2006,
+ author = {Olea, R.},
+ title = {A six--step practical approach to semivariogram modeling},
+ journal = {Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {20},
+ pages = {307--318},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {Geostatistical prediction and simulation are being increasingly used
+ in the earth sciences and engineering to address the imperfect knowledge
+ of attributes that fluctuate over large areas or volumes—pollutant
+ concentration, electromagnetic fields, porosity, thickness of a geological
+ formation. Central to the application of such techniques is the need
+ to know the spatial continuity, knowledge that is commonly condensed
+ in the form of covariance or semivariogram models. Their preparation
+ is subdivided here into the following steps: (1) Data editing, (2)
+ Exploratory data analysis, (3) Semivariogram estimation, (4) Directional
+ investigation, (5) Simple modeling, (6) Nested modeling. I illustrate
+ these stages practically with a real data set from a geophysical
+ survey from Elk County, Kansas, USA. The applicability of the approach
+ is not limited by the physical nature of the attribute of interest.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00477-005-0026-1},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{olesen+al2007,
+ author = {Olesen, J. and Carter, T. and {D\'iaz-Ambrona}, C. and Fronzek, S.
+ and Heidmann, T. and Hickler, T. and Holt, T. and Minguez, M. and
+ Morales, P. and Palutikof, J. and Quemada, M. and {Ruiz-Ramos}, M.
+ and Rub{\ae}k, G. and Sau, F. and Smith, B. and Sykes, M.},
+ title = {Uncertainties in projected impacts of climate change on {E}uropean
+ agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems based on scenarios from regional
+ climate models},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {81},
+ pages = {123--143},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {The uncertainties and sources of variation in projected impacts of
+ climate change on agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems depend not
+ only on the emission scenarios and climate models used for projecting
+ future climates, but also on the impact models used, and the local
+ soil and climatic conditions of the managed or unmanaged ecosystems
+ under study. We addressed these uncertainties by applying different
+ impact models at site, regional and continental scales, and by separating
+ the variation in simulated relative changes in ecosystem performance
+ into the different sources of uncertainty and variation using analyses
+ of variance. The crop and ecosystem models used output from a range
+ of global and regional climate.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10584-006-9216-1},
+ tags = {Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{oliver1997,
+ author = {Oliver, D. and Cunha, L. and Reynolds, A.},
+ title = {Markov {C}hain {M}onte {C}arlo methods for conditioning a permeability
+ field to pressure data},
+ journal = {Mathematical Geology},
+ year = {1997},
+ volume = {29},
+ pages = {61--91},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {Generating one realization of a random permeability field that is
+ consistent with observed pressure data and a known variogram model
+ is not a difficult problem. If, however, one wants to investigate
+ the uncertainty of reservior behavior, one must generate a large
+ number of realizations and ensure that the distribution of realizations
+ properly reflects the uncertainty in reservoir properties. The most
+ widely used method for conditioning permeability fields to production
+ data has been the method of simulated annealing, in which practitioners
+ attempt to minimize the difference between the ’ ’true and simulated
+ production data, and “true†and simulated variograms. Unfortunately,
+ the meaning of the resulting realization is not clear and the method
+ can be extremely slow. In this paper, we present an alternative approach
+ to generating realizations that are conditional to pressure data,
+ focusing on the distribution of realizations and on the efficiency
+ of the method. Under certain conditions that can be verified easily,
+ the Markov chain Monte Carlo method is known to produce states whose
+ frequencies of appearance correspond to a given probability distribution,
+ so we use this method to generate the realizations. To make the method
+ more efficient, we perturb the states in such a way that the variogram
+ is satisfied automatically and the pressure data are approximately
+ matched at every step. These perturbations make use of sensitivity
+ coefficients calculated from the reservoir simulator.},
+ doi = {10.1007/BF02769620},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.09.11}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{olsthoom2006,
+ author = {Olsthoom, T. and Kamps, P.},
+ title = {Challenges to calibration: {F}acing an increasingly critical environment},
+ journal = {Ground Water},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {44},
+ pages = {876--879},
+ number = {6},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1745-6584.2006.00247.x},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.12.03}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{oz2003,
+ author = {Oz, B. and Deutsch, C. and Tran, T. and Xie, Y--L},
+ title = {D{SSIM-HR}: {A} {FORTRAN 90} program for direct sequential simulation
+ with histogram reproduction},
+ journal = {Computers \& Geosciences},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {29},
+ pages = {39--51},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {Sequential simulation is a frequently used geostatistical simulation
+ technique. The most widely used version of this technique is sequential
+ Gaussian simulation, where the data are transformed to follow a Gaussian
+ distribution and the entire multivariate distribution is then assumed
+ to be Gaussian. This critical assumption greatly simplifies the simulation
+ process since every conditional distribution is Gaussian with parameters
+ given by kriging. Direct sequential simulation does not require any
+ Gaussian assumption and simulates directly the data space; however,
+ a longstanding problem of direct simulation is that the histogram
+ of the variable is not reproduced even though the mean, variance,
+ and variogram are reproduced. This lack of histogram reproduction
+ is due to the unknown shape of the conditional distributions, which
+ are used for drawing the simulated values.
+
+
+ We derive a simple and theoretically valid approach by establishing
+ the shapes of the sequentially constructed conditional distributions.
+ These shapes ensure histogram reproduction. The approach has been
+ coded in FORTRAN 90 and called DSSIM-HR, where the extension HR refers
+ to the feature of “Histogram Reproductionâ€.},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0098-3004(02)00071-7},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{pappenberger2006a,
+ author = {Pappenberger, F. and Beven, K.},
+ title = {Ignorance is bliss: {O}r seven reasons not to use uncertainty analysis},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {42},
+ pages = {W05302},
+ abstract = {Uncertainty analysis of models has received increasing attention over
+ the last two decades in water resources research. However, a significant
+ part of the community is still reluctant to embrace the estimation
+ of uncertainty in hydrological and hydraulic modeling. In this paper,
+ we summarize and explore seven common arguments: uncertainty analysis
+ is not necessary given physically realistic models; uncertainty analysis
+ cannot be used in hydrological and hydraulic hypothesis testing;
+ uncertainty (probability) distributions cannot be understood by policy
+ makers and the public; uncertainty analysis cannot be incorporated
+ into the decision-making process; uncertainty analysis is too subjective;
+ uncertainty analysis is too difficult to perform; uncertainty does
+ not really matter in making the final decision. We will argue that
+ none of the arguments against uncertainty analysis rehearsed are,
+ in the end, tenable. Moreover, we suggest that one reason why the
+ application of uncertainty analysis is not normal and expected part
+ of modeling practice is that mature guidance on methods and applications
+ does not exist. The paper concludes with suggesting that a Code of
+ Practice is needed as a way of formalizing such guidance.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2005WR004820},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{pappenberger+al2007,
+ author = {Pappenberger, F. and Beven, K. and Frodsham, K. and Romanowicz, R.
+ and Matgen, P.},
+ title = {Grasping the unavoidable subjectivity in calibration of flood inundation
+ models: {A} vulnerability weighted approach},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {333},
+ pages = {275--287},
+ number = {2-4},
+ abstract = {Quantitative modeling of risk and hazard from flooding involves decisions
+ regarding the choice of model and goal of the modeling exercise,
+ expressed by some measure of performance. This paper shows how the
+ subjectivity in the choices of performance measures and observation
+ sets used for model calibration inevitably results in variability
+ in the estimation of flood hazard. We compare the predictions of
+ a 2D flood inundation model obtained using different global and local
+ evaluation criteria. It is shown that traditional area averaging
+ performance measures are inadequate in the face of model imperfection,
+ especially when such models are calibrated for flood hazard studies.
+ In this study we include flood risk weighting into the performance
+ measure of the model. This allows us to calibrate the model to places
+ that are important, e.g. location of houses. The quantification of
+ the importance of places requires the necessity of engaging stakeholders
+ into the model calibration process.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.08.017},
+ keywords = {Flood inundation model, LISFLOOD-FP, GLUE, Raster map comparison,
+ Utility function, Flood risk, Flood hazard},
+ tags = {Calibration, Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{pappenberger2006b,
+ author = {Pappenberger, F. and Matgen, P. and Beven, K. and Henry, J. and Pfister,
+ L. and {de Fraipont}, P.},
+ title = {Influence of uncertain boundary conditions and model structure on
+ flood inundation predictions},
+ journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {29},
+ pages = {1430--1449},
+ number = {10},
+ abstract = {In this study, the GLUE methodology is applied to establish the sensitivity
+ of flood inundation predictions to uncertainty of the upstream boundary
+ condition and bridges within the modelled region. An understanding
+ of such uncertainties is essential to improve flood forecasting and
+ floodplain mapping. The model has been evaluated on a large data
+ set. This paper shows uncertainty of the upstream boundary can have
+ significant impact on the model results, exceeding the importance
+ of model parameter uncertainty in some areas. However, this depends
+ on the hydraulic conditions in the reach e.g. internal boundary conditions
+ and, for example, the amount of backwater within the modelled region.
+ The type of bridge implementation can have local effects, which is
+ strongly influenced by the bridge geometry (in this case the area
+ of the culvert). However, the type of bridge will not merely influence
+ the model performance within the region of the structure, but also
+ other evaluation criteria such as the travel time. This also highlights
+ the difficulties in establishing which parameters have to be more
+ closely examined in order to achieve better fits. In this study no
+ parameter set or model implementation that fulfils all evaluation
+ criteria could be established. We propose four different approaches
+ to this problem: closer investigation of anomalies; introduction
+ of local parameters; increasing the size of acceptable error bounds;
+ and resorting to local model evaluation. Moreover, we show that it
+ can be advantageous to decouple the classification into behavioural
+ and non-behavioural model data/parameter sets from the calculation
+ of uncertainty bounds.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.advwatres.2005.11.012},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.12.03}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{parajka+al2007,
+ author = {Parajka, J. and Merz, R. and Bl{\"o}schl, G.},
+ title = {Uncertainty and multiple objective calibration in regional water
+ balance modelling: case study in 320 {A}ustrian catchments},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {21},
+ pages = {435--446},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {We examine the value of additional information in multiple objective
+ calibration in terms of model performance and parameter uncertainty.
+ We calibrate and validate a semi-distributed conceptual catchment
+ model for two 11-year periods in 320 Austrian catchments and test
+ three approaches of parameter calibration: (a) traditional single
+ objective calibration (SINGLE) on daily runoff; (b) multiple objective
+ calibration (MULTI) using daily runoff and snow cover data; (c) multiple
+ objective calibration (APRIORI) that incorporates an a priori expert
+ guess about the parameter distribution as additional information
+ to runoff and snow cover data. Results indicate that the MULTI approach
+ performs slightly poorer than the SINGLE approach in terms of runoff
+ simulations, but significantly better in terms of snow cover simulations.
+ The APRIORI approach is essentially as good as the SINGLE approach
+ in terms of runoff simulations but is slightly poorer than the MULTI
+ approach in terms of snow cover simulations. An analysis of the parameter
+ uncertainty indicates that the MULTI approach significantly decreases
+ the uncertainty of the model parameters related to snow processes
+ but does not decrease the uncertainty of other model parameters as
+ compared to the SINGLE case. The APRIORI approach tends to decrease
+ the uncertainty of all model parameters as compared to the SINGLE
+ case},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.6253},
+ keywords = {multiple objective calibration, parameter uncertainty, water balance
+ modelling},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{parasuraman2008,
+ author = {Parasuraman, K. and Elshorbagy, A.},
+ title = {Toward improving the reliability of hydrologic prediction: {M}odel
+ structure uncertainty and its quantification using ensemble-based
+ genetic programming framework},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {44},
+ pages = {W12406},
+ abstract = {Uncertainty analysis is starting to be widely acknowledged as an integral
+ part of hydrological modeling. The conventional treatment of uncertainty
+ analysis in hydrologic modeling is to assume a deterministic model
+ structure, and treat its associated parameters as imperfectly known,
+ thereby neglecting the uncertainty associated with the model structure.
+ In this paper, a modeling framework that can explicitly account for
+ the effect of model structure uncertainty has been proposed. The
+ modeling framework is based on initially generating different realizations
+ of the original data set using a non-parametric bootstrap method,
+ and then exploiting the ability of the self-organizing algorithms,
+ namely genetic programming, to evolve their own model structure for
+ each of the resampled data sets. The resulting ensemble of models
+ is then used to quantify the uncertainty associated with the model
+ structure. The performance of the proposed modeling framework is
+ analyzed with regards to its ability in characterizing the evapotranspiration
+ process at the Southwest Sand Storage facility, located near Ft.
+ McMurray, Alberta. Eddy-covariance-measured actual evapotranspiration
+ is modeled as a function of net radiation, air temperature, ground
+ temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. Investigating the
+ relation between model complexity, prediction accuracy, and uncertainty,
+ two sets of experiments were carried out by varying the level of
+ mathematical operators that can be used to define the predictand-predictor
+ relationship. While the first set uses just the additive operators,
+ the second set uses both the additive and the multiplicative operators
+ to define the predictand-predictor relationship. The results suggest
+ that increasing the model complexity may lead to better prediction
+ accuracy but at an expense of increasing uncertainty. Compared to
+ the model parameter uncertainty, the relative contribution of model
+ structure uncertainty to the predictive uncertainty of a model is
+ shown to be more important. Furthermore, the study advocates that
+ the search to find the optimal model could be replaced by the quest
+ to unearth possible models for characterizing hydrological processes.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2007WR006451},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.02.22}
+}
+
+@BOOK{parry+al2007,
+ title = {Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution
+ of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
+ Panel on Climate Change},
+ publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
+ year = {2007},
+ editor = {Parry, M. and Canziani, O. and Palutikof, J. and {van der Linden},
+ P. and Hanson, C.},
+ author = {Parry, M. and Canziani, O. and Palutikof, J. and {van der Linden},
+ P. and Hanson, C.},
+ pages = {1000pp.},
+ address = {Cambridge, UK},
+ tags = {IPCC}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{pasquier2006,
+ author = {Pasquier, P. and Marcotte, D.},
+ title = {Steady-- and transient--state inversion in hydrogeology by successive
+ flux estimation},
+ journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {29},
+ pages = {1934--1952},
+ number = {12},
+ abstract = {A calibration method to solve the groundwater inverse problem under
+ steady- and transient-state conditions is presented. The method compares
+ kriged and numerical head field gradients to modify hydraulic conductivity
+ without the use of non-linear optimization techniques. The process
+ is repeated iteratively until a close match with piezometric data
+ is reached. The approach includes a damping factor to avoid divergence
+ and oscillation of the solution in areas of low hydraulic gradient
+ and a weighting factor to account for temporal head variation in
+ transient simulations. The efficiency of the method in terms of computing
+ time and calibration results is demonstrated with a synthetic field.
+ It is shown that the proposed method provides parameter fields that
+ reproduce both hydraulic conductivity and piezometric data in few
+ forward model solutions. Stochastic numerical experiments are conducted
+ to evaluate the sensitivity of the method to the damping function
+ and to the head field estimation errors.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.advwatres.2006.02.001},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.03.13}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{patriarche2005,
+ author = {Patriarche, D. and Castro, M. and Goovaerts, P.},
+ title = {Estimating regional hydraulic conductivity fields--{A} comparative
+ study of geostatistical methods},
+ journal = {Mathematical Geology},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {37},
+ pages = {587--613},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {Geostatistical estimations of the hydraulic conductivity field (K)
+ in the Carrizo aquifer, Texas, are performed over three regional
+ domains of increasing extent: 1) the domain corresponding to a three-dimensional
+ groundwater flow model previously built (model domain); 2) the area
+ corresponding to the 10 counties encompassing the model domain (County
+ domain), and; 3) the full extension of the Carrizo aquifer within
+ Texas (Texas domain). Two different approaches are used: 1) an indirect
+ approach where transmissivity (T) is estimated first and K is retrieved
+ through division of the T estimate by the screen length of the wells,
+ and; 2) a direct approach where K data are kriged directly. Due to
+ preferential well screen emplacement, and scarcity of sampling in
+ the deeper portions of the formation (> 1 km), the available data
+ set is biased toward high values of hydraulic conductivities. Kriging
+ combined with linear regression, simple kriging with varying local
+ means, kriging with an external drift, and cokriging allow the incorporation
+ of specific capacity as secondary information. Prediction performances
+ (assessed through cross-validation) differ according to the chosen
+ approach, the considered variable (log-transformed or back-transformed),
+ and the scale of interest. For the indirect approach, kriging of
+ log T with varying local means yields the best estimates for both
+ log-transformed and back-transformed variables in the model domain.
+ For larger regional scales (County and Texas domains), cokriging
+ performs generally better than other kriging procedures when estimating
+ both (log T)? and T?. Among procedures using the direct approach,
+ the best prediction performances are obtained using kriging of log
+ K with an external drift. Overall, geostatistical estimation of the
+ hydraulic conductivity field at regional scales is rendered difficult
+ by both preferential well location and preferential emplacement of
+ well screens in the most productive portions of the aquifer. Such
+ bias creates unrealistic hydraulic conductivity values, in particular,
+ in sparsely sampled areas.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s11004-005-7308-5},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{payne+al2004,
+ author = {Payne, J. and Wood, A. and Hamlet, A. and Palmer, R. and Lettenmaier,
+ D.},
+ title = {Mitigating the effects of climate change on the water resources of
+ the {C}olumbia {R}iver basin},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {62},
+ pages = {233--256},
+ number = {1--3},
+ abstract = {The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water
+ resources of the Columbia River Basin (CRB) were evaluated using
+ simulations from the U.S. Department of Energy and National Center
+ for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (DOE/NCAR PCM). This
+ study focuses on three climate projections for the 21st century based
+ on a `business as usual' (BAU) global emissions scenario, evaluated
+ with respect to a control climate scenario based on static 1995 emissions.
+ Time-varying monthly PCM temperature and precipitation changes were
+ statistically downscaled and temporally disaggregated to produce
+ daily forcings that drove a macro-scale hydrologic simulation model
+ of the Columbia River basin at 1/4-degree spatial resolution. For
+ comparison with the direct statistical downscaling approach, a dynamical
+ downscaling approach using a regional climate model (RCM) was also
+ used to derive hydrologic model forcings for 20-year subsets from
+ the PCM control climate (1995--2015) scenario and from the three
+ BAU climate(2040--2060) projections. The statistically downscaled
+ PCM scenario results were assessed for three analysis periods (denoted
+ Periods 1--3: 2010--2039,2040--2069, 2070--2098) in which changes
+ in annual average temperature were +0.5,+1.3 and +2.1 °C, respectively,
+ while critical winter season precipitation changes were --3, +5 and
+ +1 percent. For RCM, the predicted temperature change for the 2040--2060
+ period was +1.2 °C and the average winter precipitation change was
+ --3 percent, relative to the RCM controlclimate. Due to the modest
+ changes in winter precipitation, temperature changes dominated the
+ simulated hydrologic effects by reducing winter snow accumulation,
+ thus shifting summer streamflow to the winter. The hydrologic changes
+ caused increased competition for reservoir storage between firm hydropower
+ and instream flow targets developed pursuant to the Endangered Species
+ Act listing of Columbia River salmonids. We examined several alternative
+ reservoir operating policies designed to mitigate reservoir system
+ performance losses. In general, the combination of earlier reservoir
+ refill with greater storage allocations for instream flow targets
+ mitigated some of the negative impacts to flow, but only with significant
+ losses in firm hydropower production (ranging from --9 percent in
+ Period1 to --35 percent for RCM). Simulated hydropower revenue changes
+ were lessthan 5 percent for all scenarios, however, primarily due
+ to small changes inannual runoff.},
+ doi = {10.1023/B:CLIM.0000013694.18154.d6},
+ tags = {Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{pebesma2004,
+ author = {Pebesma, E.},
+ title = {Multivariable geostatistics in {S}: {T}he gstat package},
+ journal = {Computers \& Geosciences},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {30},
+ pages = {683--691},
+ number = {7},
+ abstract = {This paper discusses advantages and shortcomings of the S environment
+ for multivariable geostatistics, in particular when extended with
+ the gstat package, an extension package for the S environments (R,
+ S-Plus). The gstat S package provides multivariable geostatistical
+ modelling, prediction and simulation, as well as several visualisation
+ functions. In particular, it makes the calculation, simultaneous
+ fitting, and visualisation of a large number of direct and cross
+ (residual) variograms very easy. Gstat was started 10 years ago and
+ was released under the GPL in 1996; gstat.org was started in 1998.
+ Gstat was not initially written for teaching purposes, but for research
+ purposes, emphasising flexibility, scalability and portability. It
+ can deal with a large number of practical issues in geostatistics,
+ including change of support (block kriging), simple/ordinary/universal
+ (co)kriging, fast local. neighbourhood selection, flexible trend
+ modelling, variables with different sampling configurations, and
+ efficient simulation of large spatially correlated. random fields,
+ indicator kriging and simulation, and (directional) variogram and
+ cross variogram modelling. The formula/models interface of the S
+ language is used to define multivariable geostatistical models. This
+ paper introduces the gstat S package, and discusses a number of design
+ and implementation issues. It also draws attention to a number of
+ papers on integration of spatial statistics software, GIS and the
+ S environment that were presented on the spatial statistics workshop
+ and sessions during the conference (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights
+ reserved.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.cageo.2004.03.012},
+ keywords = {kriging, cokriging, linear model of coregionalisation, open source
+ software, S language, Stochastic simulation, PREDICTION},
+ tags = {R, interpolation}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{pengxu2009,
+ author = {Peng, D. and Xu, Z.},
+ title = {Simulating the impact of climate change on streamflow in the {T}arim
+ {R}iver basin by using a modified semi--distributed monthly water
+ balance model},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {24},
+ pages = {209--216},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {A modified semi-distributed monthly water balance model is proposed
+ to simulate the streamflow in the Tarim River. With the comparative
+ study among TOPMODEL, Xinanjiang model and the modified semi-distributed
+ monthly water balance model in the headwater catchment of the Tarim
+ River, it showed that the proposed model with simple structure and
+ two parameters as well as TOPMODEL, Xinanjiang model perform well
+ in the study area (the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies R-2 were between
+ 0.60 and 0.69, and the relative errors of the volumetric fitness
+ R-E were between -19% and 19%). At Shaliguilank hydrological station
+ in the Aksu River basin, R-2 is around 0.60. Those values at other
+ stations are generally between 0.60 and 0.66 in headwater catchment
+ of the Tarim River. The high-flow year, average year and dry year
+ were determined by analysing the frequency of annual runoff in the
+ Tarim River from 1957 to 2005 using Pearson type III (P-III) distribution,
+ and the L-moment approach was applied to the parameter estimation
+ for P-III distribution. With the reference years (high-flow year,
+ average year and dry year) and the long-term trend, different scenarios
+ for the precipitation in 2010 and 2020 have been generated. The streamflow
+ was simulated by using the proposed model with different scenarios,
+ and the impact of climate change on streamflow was analysed. The
+ results showed that the streamflow in 2010 and 2020 exhibited an
+ increasing tendency in the Aksu, Yarkant, and Hotan River basins},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.7485},
+ tags = {Climate Change}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{perrin+al2001,
+ author = {Perrin, C. and Michel, C. and Andreassian, V.},
+ title = {Does a large number of parameters enhance model performance? {C}omparative
+ assessment of common catchment model structures on 429 catchments},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {242},
+ pages = {275--301},
+ number = {3-4},
+ abstract = {Hydrological models must be reliable and robust as these qualities
+ influence all applications based on model output. Previous studies
+ on conceptual rainfall-runoff models have shown that one of the root
+ causes of their output uncertainty is model over-parameterisation.
+ The problem of poorly defined parameters has attracted much attention
+ but has not yet been satisfactorily solved. We believe that the most
+ fruitful way forward is to improve the structures where these parameters
+ act. The main objective of this paper is to examine the role of complexity
+ in hydrological models by studying the relation between the number
+ of optimised parameters and model performance. An extensive comparative
+ performance assessment of the structures of 19 daily lumped models
+ was carried out on 429 catchments, mostly in France but also in the
+ United States, Australia, the Ivory Coast and Brazil. Bulk treatment
+ of the data showed that the complex models outperform the simple
+ ones in calibration mode but not in verification mode. We argue that
+ the main reason why complex models lack stability is that the structure,
+ i.e. the way components are organised, is not suited to extracting
+ information available in hydrological time-series An inadequate complexity
+ typically results in model over-parameterisation and parameter uncertainty.
+ Although complexity has been used as a response to the challenge
+ of predicting the hydrological effects of environmental changes,
+ this study suggests that such models may have been developed with
+ excessive confidence and that they could face difficulties of parameter
+ estimation and structure validation when confronted with hydro-meteorological
+ time-series. This comparative study indicates that some parsimonious
+ models can yield promising results and should be further developed,
+ although they are not able to tackle all types of problems, which
+ would be the case if their complexity were ideally adapted.},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00393-0},
+ keywords = {France, United States, Australia, Ivory Coast, Brazil, models, rain
+ water, runoff, evapotranspiration, optimization, digital simulation,
+ calibration, drainage basins, Western Europe, Europe, North America,
+ Australasia, West Africa, Africa, South America},
+ tags = {Calibration, conceptual model}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{piani+al2010a,
+ author = {Piani, C. and Haerter, J. and Coppola, E.},
+ title = {Statistical bias correction for daily precipitation in regional climate
+ models over {E}urope},
+ journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {99},
+ pages = {187--192},
+ number = {1--2},
+ month = {January},
+ abstract = {We design, apply, and validate a methodology for correcting climate
+ model output to produce internally consistent fields that have the
+ same statistical intensity distribution as the observations. We refer
+ to this as a statistical bias correction. Validation of the methodology
+ is carried out using daily precipitation fields, defined over Europe,
+ from the ENSEMBLES climate model dataset. The bias correction is
+ calculated using data from 1961 to 1970, without distinguishing between
+ seasons, and applied to seasonal data from 1991 to 2000. This choice
+ of time periods is made to maximize the lag between calibration and
+ validation within the ERA40 reanalysis period. Results show that
+ the method performs unexpectedly well. Not only are the mean and
+ other moments of the intensity distribution improved, as expected,
+ but so are a drought and a heavy precipitation index, which depend
+ on the autocorrelation spectra. Given that the corrections were derived
+ without seasonal distinction and are based solely on intensity distributions,
+ a statistical quantity oblivious of temporal correlations, it is
+ encouraging to find that the improvements are present even when seasons
+ and temporal statistics are considered. This encourages the application
+ of this method to multi-decadal climate projections.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00704-009-0134-9},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.18}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{piani+al2010b,
+ author = {Piani, C. and Weedon, G. and Best, M. and Gomes, S. and Viterbo,
+ P. and Hagemann, S. and Haerter, J.},
+ title = {Statistical bias correction of global simulated daily precipitation
+ and temperature for the application of hydrological models},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {395},
+ pages = {199--215},
+ number = {3--4},
+ abstract = {A statistical bias correction methodology for global climate simulations
+ is developed and applied to daily land precipitation and mean, minimum
+ and maximum daily land temperatures. The bias correction is based
+ on a fitted histogram equalization function. This function is defined
+ daily, as opposed to earlier published versions in which they were
+ derived yearly or seasonally at best, while conserving properties
+ of robustness and eliminating unrealistic jumps at seasonal or monthly
+ transitions. The methodology is tested using the newly available
+ global dataset of observed hydrological forcing data of the last
+ 50 years from the EU project WATCH (WATer and global CHange) and
+ an initial conditions ensemble of simulations performed with the
+ ECHAM5 global climate model for the same period. Bias corrections
+ are derived from 1960 to 1969 observed and simulated data and then
+ applied to 1990–1999 simulations. Results confirm the effectiveness
+ of the methodology for all tested variables. Bias corrections are
+ also derived using three other non-overlapping decades from 1970
+ to 1999 and all members of the ECHAM5 initial conditions ensemble.
+ A methodology is proposed to use the resulting “ensemble of bias
+ corrections†to quantify the error in simulated scenario projections
+ of components of the hydrological cycle.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.10.024},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.07.29}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{pillingjones2002,
+ author = {Pilling, C. and Jones, J.},
+ title = {The impact of future climate change on seasonal discharge, hydrological
+ processes and extreme flows in the {U}pper {W}ye experimental catchment,
+ {M}id-{W}ales},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {16},
+ pages = {1201--1213},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {Analysing the impact of future climate change on hydrological regimes
+ is hampered by the disparity of scales between general circulation
+ model (GCM) output and the spatial resolution required by catchment-scale
+ hydrological simulation models. In order to overcome this, statistical
+ relationships were established between three indices of atmospheric
+ circulation (vorticity and the strength and direction of geostrophic
+ windflow) and daily catchment precipitation and potential evapotranspiration
+ (PET) to downscale from the HadCM2 GCM to the Upper Wye experimental
+ catchment in mid-Wales. The atmospheric circulation indices were
+ calculated from daily grid point sea-level pressure data for: (a)
+ the Climatic Research Unit observed data set (1975-90); (b) the HadCM2SUL
+ simulation representing the present climate (1980-99); and (c) the
+ HadCM2SUL simulation representing future climate conditions (2080-99).
+ The performance of the downscaling approach was evaluated by comparing
+ diagnostic statistics from the three downscaled precipitation and
+ PET scenarios with those recorded from the Upper Wye catchment. The
+ most significant changes between the downscaled HadCM2SUL 1980-99
+ and 2080-99 scenarios are decreases in precipitation occurrence and
+ amount in summer and autumn combined with a shortening of mean wet
+ spell length, which is most pronounced in autumn. A hydrological
+ simulation model (HYSIM) was calibrated on recorded flow data for
+ the Upper Wye catchment and forced with the three downscaled precipitation
+ and PET scenarios to model changes in river flow and hillslope hydrological
+ processes. Results indicate increased seasonality of flows, with
+ markedly drier summers. Analysis of extreme events suggests significant
+ increases in the frequency of both high- and low-flow events},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.1057},
+ tags = {Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{plavcova2011,
+ author = {Plavcov\'a, E. and Kysel\'y, J.},
+ title = {{Evaluation of daily temperatures in Central Europe and their links
+ to large-scale circulation in an ensemble of regional climate models}},
+ journal = {Tellus {A}},
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {63},
+ pages = {763--781},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {Reproduction of daily maximum and minimum temperatures, including
+ tails of their distributions and links to large-scale circulation,
+ is evaluated in an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model
+ (RCM) simulations over the Czech Republic. RCM data for recent climate
+ (1961–1990) are validated against observed data gridded from a high-density
+ station network. We find large biases in mean monthly temperatures
+ and in seasonal extremes, which are significant in most RCMs throughout
+ the year. The results suggest that an RCM's formulation plays a much
+ more important role in summer, whereas in winter RCM performance
+ is closely linked to the driving GCM. Biases are usually larger for
+ extremes than central parts of temperature distributions, and RCMs
+ tend to underestimate the severity of extremes in both seasons. Substantial
+ underestimation of diurnal temperature range throughout the year
+ in all RCMs and a shift of maximum in its annual cycle suggest general
+ errors in simulating climate processes affecting the difference between
+ daytime and night-time temperatures. Some features of the temperature
+ biases in RCMs are related to deficiencies in the simulation of atmospheric
+ circulation, particularly too strong advection and overestimation
+ of westerly flow at the expense of easterly flow in most RCMs. The
+ general biases in simulating anticyclonic, cyclonic and straight
+ flow also contribute to the underestimated diurnal temperature range.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0870.2011.00514.x},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.02.07}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{poeterander2005,
+ author = {Poeter, E. and Anderson, D.},
+ title = {Multimodel ranking and inference in ground water modelling},
+ journal = {Ground Water},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {43},
+ pages = {597--605},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {Uncertainty of hydrogeologic conditions makes it important to consider
+ alternative plausible models in an effort to evaluate the character
+ of a ground water system, maintain parsimony, and make predictions
+ with reasonable definition of their uncertainty. When multiple models
+ are considered, data collection and analysis focus on evaluation
+ of which model(s) is(are) most supported by the data. Generally,
+ more than one model provides a similar acceptable fit to the observations;
+ thus, inference should be made from multiple models. Kullback-Leibler
+ (K-L) information provides a rigorous foundation for model inference
+ that is simple to compute, is easy to interpret, selects parsimonious
+ models, and provides a more realistic measure of precision than evaluation
+ of any one model or evaluation based on other commonly referenced
+ model selection criteria. These alternative criteria strive to identify
+ the true (or quasi-true) model, assume it is represented by one of
+ the models in the set, and given their preference for parsimony regardless
+ of the available number of observations the selected model may be
+ underfit. This is in sharp contrast to the K-L information approach,
+ where models are considered to be approximations to reality, and
+ it is expected that more details of the system will be revealed when
+ more data are available. We provide a simple, computer-generated
+ example to illustrate the procedure for multimodel inference based
+ on K-L information and present arguments, based on statistical underpinnings
+ that have been overlooked with time, that its theoretical basis renders
+ it preferable to other approaches.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1745-6584.2005.0061.x},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{poeterhill1999,
+ author = {Poeter, E. and Hill, M.},
+ title = {{UCODE, a computer code for universal inverse modeling}},
+ journal = {Computer \& Geosciences},
+ year = {1999},
+ volume = {25},
+ pages = {457--462},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {This article presents the US Geological Survey computer program UCODE,
+ which was developed in collaboration with the US Army Corps of Engineers
+ Waterways Experiment Station and the International Ground Water Modeling
+ Center of the Colorado School of Mines. UCODE performs inverse modeling,
+ posed as a parameter-estimation problem, using nonlinear regression.
+ Any application model or set of models can be used; the only requirement
+ is that they have numerical (ASCII or text only) input and output
+ files and that the numbers in these files have sufficient significant
+ digits. Application models can include preprocessors and postprocessors
+ as well as models related to the processes of interest (physical,
+ chemical and so on), making UCODE extremely powerful for model calibration.
+ Estimated parameters can be defined flexibly with user-specified
+ functions. Observations to be matched in the regression can be any
+ quantity for which a simulated equivalent value can be produced,
+ thus simulated equivalent values are calculated using values that
+ appear in the application model output files and can be manipulated
+ with additive and multiplicative functions, if necessary. Prior,
+ or direct, information on estimated parameters also can be included
+ in the regression. The nonlinear regression problem is solved by
+ minimizing a weighted least-squares objective function with respect
+ to the parameter values using a modified Gauss–Newton method. Sensitivities
+ needed for the method are calculated approximately by forward or
+ central differences and problems and solutions related to this approximation
+ are discussed. Statistics are calculated and printed for use in (1)
+ diagnosing inadequate data or identifying parameters that probably
+ cannot be estimated with the available data, (2) evaluating estimated
+ parameter values, (3) evaluating the model representation of the
+ actual processes and (4) quantifying the uncertainty of model simulated
+ values. UCODE is intended for use on any computer operating system:
+ it consists of algorithms programmed in perl, a freeware language
+ designed for text manipulation and Fortran90, which efficiently performs
+ numerical calculations.},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0098-3004(98)00149-6},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.10.13}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{poeterhill1997,
+ author = {Poeter, E. and Hill, M.},
+ title = {Inverse models: {A} necessary step in {G}round--{W}ater modeling},
+ journal = {Ground Water},
+ year = {1997},
+ volume = {35},
+ pages = {250--260},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {Inverse models using, for example, nonlinear least-squares regression,
+ provide capabilities that help modelers take full advantage of the
+ insight available from ground-water models. However, lack of information
+ about the requirements and benefits of inverse models is an obstacle
+ to their widespread use. This paper presents a simple ground-water
+ flow problem to illustrate the requirements and benefits of the nonlinear
+ least-squares regression method of inverse modeling and discusses
+ how these attributes apply to field problems. The benefits of inverse
+ modeling include: (1) expedited determination of best fit parameter
+ values; (2) quantification of the (a) quality of calibration, (b)
+ data shortcomings and needs, and (c) confidence limits on parameter
+ estimates and predictions; and (3) identification of issues that
+ are easily overlooked during nonautomated calibration.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1745-6584.1997.tb00082.x},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{poeter2005,
+ author = {Poeter, E. and Hill, M. and Banta, E. and Mehl, S. and Christensen,
+ S.},
+ title = {U{CODE}--2005 and six other computer codes for universal sensitivity
+ analysis, calibration, and uncertainty evaluation},
+ institution = {United States Geological Survey},
+ year = {2005},
+ type = {Technical Methods 6--A11},
+ address = {Reston, Virginia, USA},
+ booktitle = {Technical Methods 6-A11},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ pages = {--283 pp},
+ publisher = {U.S. Geological Survey},
+ refid = {POETER2005A},
+ timestamp = {2008.11.04}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{poeter1995,
+ author = {Poeter, E. and McKenna, S.},
+ title = {Reducing uncertainty associated with groundw--water flow and transport
+ predictions},
+ journal = {Ground Water},
+ year = {1995},
+ volume = {33},
+ pages = {899--904},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {Effective evaluation of ground-water flow and transport problems requires
+ consideration of the range of possible interpretations of the subsurface
+ given the available, disparate types of data. Geostatistical simulation
+ (using a modified version of ISIM3D) of hydrofacies units produces
+ many realizations that honor the available geologic data and represent
+ the range of subsurface interpretations of unit geometry. Hydraulic
+ observations are utilized to accept or reject the geometric configurations
+ of hydrofacies units and to estimate ground-water flow parameters
+ for the units (using MODFLOWP). These realizations are employed to
+ evaluate the uncertainty of the resulting value of the response function
+ (ground-water flow velocity and contaminant concentration) using
+ MT3D. The process is illustrated with a synthetic data set for which
+ the "truth" is known, and produces a striking reduction in the distribution
+ of predicted contaminant concentrations. The same system is evaluated
+ three times: first with only hard data, then with both hard and soft
+ data, and finally with only the realizations that honor the hydraulic
+ data (i.e., those accepted after parameter estimation via inverse
+ flow modeling). Using only hard data, the mean concentration predicted
+ for all realizations at the point of interest is nearly two orders
+ of magnitude lower than the true value and the standard deviation
+ of the log of concentration is two. The addition of soft data brings
+ the mean concentration within one order of magnitude of the true
+ value and reduces the standard deviation of the log of concentration
+ to one. After eliminating realizations using inverse flow modeling,
+ the mean concentration is one-third of the true value and the standard
+ deviation of the log of concentration less than 0.5.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1745-6584.1995.tb00034.x},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.02.12}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{pokhrel+al2010,
+ author = {Pokhrel, P. and Gupta, H.},
+ title = {On the use of spatial regularization strategies to improve calibration
+ of distributed watershed models},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {46},
+ pages = {W01505},
+ number = {1},
+ doi = {10.1029/2009WR008066},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{pokhrel+al2008,
+ author = {Pokhrel, P. and Gupta, H. and Wagener, T.},
+ title = {A spatial regularization approach to parameter estimation for a distributed
+ watershed model},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {44},
+ pages = { W12419},
+ abstract = {Partial support for this work provided by the National Weather Service
+ Office of Hydrology under grant NA04NWS462001 and by SAHRA under
+ NSF-STC grant EAR-9876800 is gratefully acknowledged. The first author
+ was also partially supported by a grant from the World Laboratory
+ International Center for Scientific Culture.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2007WR006615},
+ keywords = {RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS, INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT, GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION,
+ HYDROLOGIC-MODELS, AUTOMATIC CALIBRATION, REGIONALIZATION, IDENTIFICATION,
+ UNCERTAINTY, INFORMATION, SIMULATION},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{pokhrel+al2011,
+ author = {Pokhrel, P. and Yilmaz, K. and Gupta, H.},
+ title = {Multiple-criteria calibration of a distributed watershed model using
+ spatial regularization and response signatures},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2011},
+ note = {in press.},
+ abstract = {This paper explores the use of a semi-automated multiple-criteria
+ calibration approach for estimating the parameters of the spatially
+ distributed HL-DHM model to the Blue River basin, Oklahoma. The study
+ was performed in the context of Phase 2 of the DMIP project organized
+ by the Hydrology Lab of the NWS. To deal with the problem of ill
+ conditioning, we employ a regularization approach that constrains
+ the search space using information contained in a priori estimates
+ of the spatially distributed parameter fields developed from soils
+ and other geo-spatial datasets. Unlike the commonly used spatial-multiplier
+ method, our more general approach allows the parameters to depart
+ non-uniformly (to some degree) from the a priori spatial pattern.
+ The approach reduces the number of unknowns to be estimated using
+ historical input{--}output data from 860 to 35. Two commonly used
+ summary statistics of the model residuals, MSE and MSEL, are used
+ to optimize fitting of the model to both the peaks and the recession
+ periods of the time series data. A signature measure approach is
+ used to select parameter sets that are close to Pareto-optimal in
+ terms of MSE and MSEL, but which provide more consistent representation
+ of the hydrologic behavior of the watershed as summarized by measures
+ derived from the flow duration curve. While the results support the
+ methods used in this analysis and show considerable improvement over
+ the a priori parameter estimates, we find that the basin has some
+ peculiar behaviors (including time non-stationarity) that the HL-DHM
+ model as implemented is not set up to reproduce},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.12.004},
+ keywords = {Distributed watershed models, Regularization, Multiple-criteria calibration,
+ Diagnostics, Parameter estimation, Information},
+ tags = {Calibration, Signatures}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{poli2008,
+ author = {Poli, Riccardo},
+ title = {Analysis of the Publications on the Applications of Particle Swarm
+ Optimisation},
+ journal = {Journal of Artificial Evolution and Applications},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {2008},
+ pages = {1--10},
+ number = {685175},
+ abstract = {Particle swarm optimisation (PSO) has been enormously successful.
+ Within little more than a decade hundreds of papers have reported
+ successful applications of PSO. In fact, there are so many of them,
+ that it is difficult for PSO practitioners and researchers to have
+ a clear up-to-date vision of what has been done in the area of PSO
+ applications. This brief paper attempts to fill this gap, by categorising
+ a large number of publications dealing with PSO applications stored
+ in the IEEE Xplore database at the time of writing.},
+ doi = {10.1155/2008/685175},
+ tags = {PSO}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{poli+al2007,
+ author = {Poli, R. and Kennedy, J. and Blackwell, T.},
+ title = {Particle swarm optimization},
+ journal = {Swarm Intelligence},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {1},
+ pages = {33--57},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {Particle swarm optimization (PSO) has undergone many changes since
+ its introduction in 1995. As researchers have learned about the technique,
+ they have derived new versions, developed new applications, and published
+ theoretical studies of the effects of the various parameters and
+ aspects of the algorithm. This paper comprises a snapshot of particle
+ swarming from the authors{'} perspective, including variations in
+ the algorithm, current and ongoing research, applications and open
+ problems. },
+ doi = {10.1007/s11721-007-0002-0},
+ keywords = {Particle swarms - Particle swarm optimization - PSO - Social networks
+ - Swarm theory - Swarm dynamics - Real world applications },
+ tags = {PSO}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{pollock1994,
+ author = {Pollock, D.},
+ title = {User's guide for {MODPATH/MODPATH}--{PLOT}, Version 3: {A} particle
+ tracking post--processing package for {MODFLOW}, the {U}.{S}. {G}eological
+ {S}urvey finite--difference ground--water flow model},
+ institution = {United States Geological Survey},
+ year = {1994},
+ type = {Open--File Report 94--464},
+ address = {Reston, Virginia, USA},
+ booktitle = {Open-File Report 94-464},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ pages = {--249 pp},
+ publisher = {U.S. Geological Survey},
+ refid = {POLLOCK1994},
+ timestamp = {2008.11.04}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{pope+al2000,
+ author = {Pope, V. and Gallani, M. and Rowntree, P. and Stratton, R.},
+ title = {The impact of new physical parametrizations in the {H}adley {C}entre
+ climate model: {HadAM3}},
+ journal = {Climate Dynamics},
+ year = {2000},
+ volume = {16},
+ pages = {123--146},
+ number = {2--3},
+ abstract = {Results are presented from the latest version of the Hadley Centre
+ climate model, HadAM3 (Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model version 3).
+ It represents a significant improvement over the previous version,
+ HadAM2b. This is demonstrated using a series of ten year integrations
+ with AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) boundary conditions.
+ The work covers three aspects of model performance: (1) it shows
+ the improvements in the mean climate in changing from HadAM2b to
+ HadAM3; (2) it demonstrates that the model now compares well with
+ observations and (3) it isolates the impacts of new physical parametrizations.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s003820050009},
+ keywords = {HadAM3 climate model},
+ tags = {Climate Models}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{praskieviczchang2009,
+ author = {Praskievicz, S. and Chang, H.},
+ title = {A review of hydrological modelling of basin--scale climate change
+ and urban development impacts},
+ journal = {Progress in Physical Geography},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {33},
+ pages = {650--671},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {Hydrological modelling is a valuable tool for researchers in geography
+ and other disciplines for studying the processes governing impacts
+ of climate change and urban development on water resources and for
+ projecting potential ranges of impacts from scenarios of future change.
+ Modelling is an inherently probabilistic exercise, with uncertainty
+ amplified at each stage of the process, from scenario generation
+ to issues of scale, to simulation of hydrological processes, to management
+ impacts. At the basin scale, significant factors affecting hydrological
+ impacts of climate change include latitude, topography, geology,
+ and land use. Under scenarios of future climate change, many basins
+ are likely to experience changes not only in their mean hydrology,
+ but also in the frequency and magnitude of extreme hydrological events.
+ Impacts of climate change on water quality are largely determined
+ by hydrological changes and by the nature of pollutants as flushingor
+ dilution-controlled. The most significant impact of urban development
+ on water resources is an increase in overall surface runoff and the
+ flashiness of the storm hydrograph. The increase in impervious surface
+ area associated with urban development also contributes to degradation
+ of water quality as a result of non-point source pollution. Modelling
+ studies on the combined impacts of climate change and urban development
+ have found that either change may be more significant, depending
+ on scenario assumptions and basin characteristics, and that each
+ type of change may amplify or ameliorate the effects of the other.
+ Hydrological impacts of climate change and urban development are
+ likely to significantly affect future water resource management.},
+ doi = {10.1177/0309133309348098},
+ tags = {Impacts}
+}
+
+@INPROCEEDINGS{prudhomme2006,
+ author = {Prudhomme, C.},
+ title = {G{CM} and downscaling uncertainty in modelling of current river flow:
+ {W}hy is it important for future impacts?},
+ booktitle = {5th FRIEND World Conf.},
+ year = {2006},
+ pages = {375--381},
+ publisher = {Havana. IAHS Publication 308},
+ tags = {Downscaling}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{prudhommedavies2009b,
+ author = {Prudhomme, C. and Davies, C.},
+ title = {Assessing uncertainties in climate change impact analyses on the
+ river flow regimes in the {UK}. {P}art 2: {F}uture climate},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {93},
+ pages = {197--222},
+ number = {1--2},
+ abstract = {The first part of this paper demonstrated the existence of bias in
+ GCM-derived precipitation series, downscaled using either a statistical
+ technique (here the Statistical Downscaling Model) or dynamical method
+ (here high resolution Regional Climate Model HadRM3) propagating
+ to river flow estimated by a lumped hydrological model. This paper
+ uses the same models and methods for a future time horizon (2080s)
+ and analyses how significant these projected changes are compared
+ to baseline natural variability in four British catchments. The UKCIP02
+ scenarios, which are widely used in the UK for climate change impact,
+ are also considered. Results show that GCMs are the largest source
+ of uncertainty in future flows. Uncertainties from downscaling techniques
+ and emission scenarios are of similar magnitude, and generally smaller
+ than GCM uncertainty. For catchments where hydrological modelling
+ uncertainty is smaller than GCM variability for baseline flow, this
+ uncertainty can be ignored for future projections, but might be significant
+ otherwise. Predicted changes are not always significant compared
+ to baseline variability, less than 50% of projections suggesting
+ a significant change in monthly flow. Insignificant changes could
+ occur due to climate variability alone and thus cannot be attributed
+ to climate change, but are often ignored in climate change studies
+ and could lead to misleading conclusions. Existing systematic bias
+ in reproducing current climate does impact future projections and
+ must, therefore, be considered when interpreting results. Changes
+ in river flow variability, important for water management planning,
+ can be easily assessed from simple resampling techniques applied
+ to both baseline and future time horizons. Assessing future climate
+ and its potential implication for river flows is a key challenge
+ facing water resource planners. This two-part paper demonstrates
+ that uncertainty due to hydrological and climate modelling must and
+ can be accounted for to provide sound, scientifically-based advice
+ to decision makers.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10584-008-9461-6},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, Thesis}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{prudhommedavies2009a,
+ author = {Prudhomme, C. and Davies, H.},
+ title = {Assessing uncertainties in climate change impact analyses on the
+ river flow regimes in the {UK}. {P}art 1: {B}aseline climate},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {93},
+ pages = {177--195},
+ number = {1--2},
+ abstract = {Assessing future climate and its potential implications on river flows
+ is a key challenge facing water resource planners. Sound, scientifically-based
+ advice to decision makers also needs to incorporate information on
+ the uncertainty in the results. Moreover, existing bias in the reproduction
+ of the ‘current’ (or baseline) river flow regime is likely to
+ transfer to the simulations of flow in future time horizons, and
+ it is thus critical to undertake baseline flow assessment while undertaking
+ future impacts studies. This paper investigates the three main sources
+ of uncertainty surrounding climate change impact studies on river
+ flows: uncertainty in GCMs, in downscaling techniques and in hydrological
+ modelling. The study looked at four British catchments’ flow series
+ simulated by a lumped conceptual rainfall--runoff model with observed
+ and GCM-derived rainfall series representative of the baseline time
+ horizon (1961--1990). A block-resample technique was used to assess
+ climate variability, either from observed records (natural variability)
+ or reproduced by GCMs. Variations in mean monthly flows due to hydrological
+ model uncertainty from different model structures or model parameters
+ were also evaluated. Three GCMs (HadCM3, CCGCM2, and CSIRO-mk2) and
+ two downscaling techniques (SDSM and HadRM3) were considered. Results
+ showed that for all four catchments, GCM uncertainty is generally
+ larger than downscaling uncertainty, and both are consistently greater
+ than uncertainty from hydrological modelling or natural variability.
+ No GCM or downscaling technique was found to be significantly better
+ or to have a systematic bias smaller than the others. This highlights
+ the need to consider more than one GCM and downscaling technique
+ in impact studies, and to assess the bias they introduce when modelling
+ river flows},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10584-008-9464-3},
+ tags = {Thesis, Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@INCOLLECTION{prudhommedavies2007,
+ author = {Prudhomme, C. and Davies, H.},
+ title = {Comparison of different sources of uncertainty in climate change
+ impact studies in {G}reat {B}ritain},
+ booktitle = {Climatic and anthropogenic impacts on the variability of water resources},
+ publisher = {FRIEND},
+ year = {2007},
+ pages = {183--190},
+ address = {Paris. Paris, UNESCO},
+ abstract = {The paper assesses the range of changes from a comprehensive set of
+ scenarios describing uncertainties due to climate modelling and climate
+ projections for the 2080s. The study focuses on the mean annual flow
+ ANN and the low flow regime indicator Q95. The changes are represented
+ by confidence bands including 90% of the future simulations and are
+ compared with estimate variations in ANN and Q95 due to natural climatic
+ variability. The climatic projections include incertainty in future
+ emissions of greenhouse gases, in midolling global climate and in
+ downscaling methodologies, while the natural variability is assessed
+ through data resampling. Results are analysed to assess which of
+ the considered uncertainties is largest for one British test catchment,
+ and to provide guidance for incorporating uncertainty in future impact
+ studies.},
+ journal = {Hydrol. Process},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{prudhomme+al2003,
+ author = {Prudhomme, C. and Jakob, D. and Svensson, C.},
+ title = {Uncertainty and climate change impact on the flood regime of small
+ {UK} catchments},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {277},
+ pages = {1--23},
+ number = {1--2},
+ abstract = {A rigorous methodology is described for quantifying some of the uncertainties
+ of climate change impact studies, excluding those due to downscaling
+ techniques, and applied on a set of five catchments in Great Britain.
+ Uncertainties in climate change are calculated from a set of 25,000
+ climate scenarios randomly generated by a Monte Carlo simulation,
+ using several Global Climate Models, SRES-98 emission scenarios and
+ climate sensitivities. Flow series representative of current and
+ future conditions were simulated using a conceptual hydrological
+ model. Generalised Pareto Distributions were fitted to Peak-Over-Threshold
+ series for each scenario, and future flood scenarios were compared
+ to current conditions for four typical flood events. Most scenarios
+ show an increase in both the magnitude and the frequency of flood
+ events, generally not greater than the 95% confidence limits. The
+ largest uncertainty can be attributed to the type of GCM used, with
+ the magnitude of changes varying by up to a factor 9 in Northern
+ England and Scotland. It is therefore essential that climate change
+ impact studies consider a range of climate scenarios derived from
+ different GCMs, and that adaptation policies do not rely on results
+ from only very few scenarios},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00065-9},
+ keywords = {Climate change impact, Flood regime, UK, Resampling, Uncertainty,
+ GCMs, Natural variability, Bootstrapping, Confidence intervals, Flood
+ magnitude, Flood frequency, Risk assessment},
+ tags = {Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{prudhomme+al2011,
+ author = {Prudhomme, C. and Parry, S. and Hannaford, J. and Clarck, D. and
+ Hagemann, S. and Voss, F.},
+ title = {{How well do large-scale models reproduce regional hydrological extremes
+ in Europe?}},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {12},
+ pages = {1181--1204},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {This paper presents a new methodology for assessing the ability of
+ gridded hydrological models to reproduce large-scale hydrological
+ high and low flow events (as a proxy for hydrological extremes) as
+ described by catalogues of historical droughts [using the regional
+ deficiency index (RDI)] and high flows [regional flood index (RFI)]
+ previously derived from river flow measurements across Europe. Using
+ the same methods, total runoff simulated by three global hydrological
+ models from the Water Model Intercomparison Project (WaterMIP) [Joint
+ U.K. Land Environment Simulator (JULES), Water Global Assessment
+ and Prognosis (WaterGAP), and Max Planck Institute Hydrological Model
+ (MPI-HM)] run with the same meteorological input (watch forcing data)
+ at the same spatial 0.5° grid was used to calculate simulated RDI
+ and RFI for the period 1963–2001 in the same European regions, directly
+ comparable with the observed catalogues. Observed and simulated RDI
+ and RFI time series were compared using three performance measures:
+ the relative mean error, the ratio between the standard deviation
+ of simulated over observed series, and the Spearman correlation coefficient.
+ Results show that all models can broadly reproduce the spatiotemporal
+ evolution of hydrological extremes in Europe to varying degrees.
+ JULES tends to produce prolonged, highly spatially coherent events
+ for both high and low flows, with events developing more slowly and
+ reaching and sustaining greater spatial coherence than observed—this
+ could be due to runoff being dominated by slow-responding subsurface
+ flow. In contrast, MPI-HM shows very high variability in the simulated
+ RDI and RFI time series and a more rapid onset of extreme events
+ than observed, in particular for regions with significant water storage
+ capacity—this could be due to possible underrepresentation of infiltration
+ and groundwater storage, with soil saturation reached too quickly.
+ WaterGAP shares some of the issues of variability with MPI-HM—also
+ attributed to insufficient soil storage capacity and surplus effective
+ precipitation being generated as surface runoff—and some strong spatial
+ coherence of simulated events with JULES, but neither of these are
+ dominant. Of the three global models considered here, WaterGAP is
+ arguably best suited to reproduce most regional characteristics of
+ large-scale high and low flow events in Europe. Some systematic weaknesses
+ emerge in all models, in particular for high flows, which could be
+ a product of poor spatial resolution of the input climate data (e.g.,
+ where extreme precipitation is driven by local convective storms)
+ or topography. Overall, this study has demonstrated that RDI and
+ RFI are powerful tools that can be used to assess how well large-scale
+ hydrological models reproduce large-scale hydrological extremes—an
+ exercise rarely undertaken in model intercomparisons.},
+ doi = {10.1175/2011JHM1387.1},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.07.05}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{prudhomme+al2002,
+ author = {Prudhomme, C. and Reynard, N. and Crooks, S.},
+ title = {Downscaling of global climate models for flood frequency analysis:
+ {W}here are we now?},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {16},
+ pages = {1137--1150},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {The issues of downscaling the results from global climate models (GCMs)
+ to a scale relevant for hydrological impact studies are examined.
+ GCM outputs, typically at a spatial resolution of around 3° latitude
+ and 4° longitude, are currently not considered reliable at time
+ scales shorter than 1 month. Continuous rainfall-runoff modelling
+ for flood regime assessment requires input at the daily or even hourly
+ time-step. A review of the different methodologies suggested in the
+ literature to downscale GCM results at smaller spatial and temporal
+ resolutions is presented. The methods, from simple interpolation
+ to more sophisticated dynamical modelling, through multiple regression
+ and weather generators, are, however, mostly based directly on GCM
+ outputs, sometimes at daily time-step. The approach adopted is a
+ simple, empirical methodology based on modelled monthly changes from
+ the HadCM2 greenhouse gases experiment for the time horizon 2050s.
+ Three daily rainfall scenarios are derived from the same set of monthly
+ changes, representing different possible changes in the rainfall
+ regime. The first scenario represents an increase of the occurrence
+ of frontal systems, corresponding to a decrease in the rainfall intensity;
+ the second corresponds to an increase in convective storm-type rainfall,
+ characterized by extreme events with higher intensity; the third
+ one assumes an increase in the monthly rainfall without any change
+ in rainfall variability. A continuous daily rainfall-runoff model,
+ calibrated for the Severn catchment, was used to generate daily flow
+ series for the 1961-90 baseline period and the 2050s, and a peaks-over-threshold
+ analysis was undertaken to produce flood frequency distributions
+ for the two time horizons. Though the three scenarios lead to an
+ increase in the magnitude and the frequency of the extreme flood
+ events, the impact is strongly influenced by the type of daily rainfall
+ scenario applied. We conclude that if the next generation of GCMs
+ produce more reliable rainfall variance estimates, then more appropriate
+ ways of deriving rainfall scenarios could be developed using weather
+ generators rather than empirical methods.},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.1054.},
+ tags = {Downscaling}
+}
+
+@MANUAL{R2011,
+ title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
+ author = {{R Development Core Team}},
+ organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
+ address = {Vienna, Austria},
+ year = {2011},
+ note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
+ organisation = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
+ tags = {Technical reports, R},
+ url = {http://www.R-project.org}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{raisaneneklund2011,
+ author = {R\"ais\"anen, J. and Eklund, J.},
+ title = {{21st Century changes in snow climate in Northern Europe: a high-resolution
+ view from ENSEMBLES regional climate models}},
+ journal = {Climate Dynamics},
+ year = {2011},
+ pages = {1--17},
+ abstract = {Changes in snow amount in northern Europe are analysed from 11 regional
+ model simulations of 21st century climate under the Special Report
+ on Emissions Scenarios A1B scenario. These high-resolution models
+ collectively indicate a future decrease in the water equivalent of
+ the snow pack (SWE). Although winter precipitation increases, this
+ is insufficient to compensate for the increased fraction of liquid
+ precipitation and increased snowmelt caused by higher temperatures.
+ The multi-model mean results suggest a slight increase in March mean
+ SWE only locally in mountains of northern Sweden, and even there,
+ snow is reduced earlier in winter and later in spring. The nature
+ of the changes remains the same throughout the 21st century, but
+ their magnitude increases with time as the greenhouse gas forcing
+ grows larger. The geographical patterns of the change support the
+ physically intuitive view that snow is most vulnerable to warming
+ in areas with relatively mild winter climate. A similar relationship
+ emerges when comparing the 11 simulations with each other: the ratio
+ between the relative SWE decrease and winter mean temperature change
+ is larger (smaller) for simulations with higher (lower) late 20th
+ century winter temperatures. Despite the decrease in long-term mean
+ SWE, individual snow-rich winters do occur in the simulations, but
+ they become increasingly uncommon towards the end of the 21st century.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00382-011-1076-3},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.07.12}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{raisanen2004,
+ author = {R\"ais\"anen, J. and Hansson, U. and Ullerstig, A. and Graham, L.
+ and Jones, C. and Meier, H. and Samuelsson, P. and Will\'en, U.},
+ title = {European climate in the late twenty-first century: regional simualtions
+ with two driving global models and two forcing scenarios},
+ journal = {Climate Dynamics},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {22},
+ pages = {13--31},
+ number = {1},
+ month = {January},
+ abstract = {A basic analysis is presented for a series of regional climate change
+ simulations that were conducted by the Swedish Rossby Centre and
+ contribute to the PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and
+ Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects)
+ project. For each of the two driving global models HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3,
+ a 30-year control run and two 30-year scenario runs (based on the
+ SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios) were made with the regional model.
+ In this way, four realizations of climate change from 1961–1990 to
+ 2071–2100 were obtained. The simulated changes are larger for the
+ A2 than the B2 scenario (although with few qualitative differences)
+ and in most cases in the ECHAM4/OPYC3-driven (RE) than in the HadAM3H-driven
+ (RH) regional simulations. In all the scenario runs, the warming
+ in northern Europe is largest in winter or late autumn. In central
+ and southern Europe, the warming peaks in summer when it locally
+ reaches 10 °C in the RE-A2 simulation and 6–7 °C in the RH-A2 and
+ RE-B2 simulations. The four simulations agree on a general increase
+ in precipitation in northern Europe especially in winter and on a
+ general decrease in precipitation in southern and central Europe
+ in summer, but the magnitude and the geographical patterns of the
+ change differ markedly between RH and RE. This reflects very different
+ changes in the atmospheric circulation during the winter half-year,
+ which also lead to quite different simulated changes in windiness.
+ All four simulations show a large increase in the lowest minimum
+ temperatures in northern, central and eastern Europe, most likely
+ due to reduced snow cover. Extreme daily precipitation increases
+ even in most of those areas where the mean annual precipitation decreases.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00382-003-0365-x},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.08.14}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{raisanenpalmer2001,
+ author = {R\"ais\"anen, J. and Palmer, T.},
+ title = {A probability and decision--model analysis of a multimodel ensemble
+ of climate change simulations},
+ journal = {Journal of Climate},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {14},
+ pages = {3212--3226},
+ number = {15},
+ abstract = {Because of the inherent uncertainties in the computational representation
+ of climate and because of unforced chaotic climate variability, it
+ is argued that climate change projections should be expressed in
+ probabilistic form. In this paper, 17 Coupled Model Intercomparison
+ Project second-phase experiments sharing the same gradual increase
+ in atmospheric CO2 are treated as a probabilistic multimodel ensemble
+ projection of future climate. Tools commonly used for evaluation
+ of probabilistic weather and seasonal forecasts are applied to this
+ climate change ensemble. The probabilities of some temperature- and
+ precipitation-related events defined for 20-yr seasonal means of
+ climate are first studied. A cross-verification exercise is then
+ used to obtain an upper estimate of the quality of these probability
+ forecasts in terms of Brier skill scores, reliability diagrams, and
+ potential economic value. Skill and value estimates are consistently
+ higher for temperature- related events (e.g., will the 20-yr period
+ around the doubling of CO2 be at least 1 degreesC warmer than the
+ present?) than for precipitation-related events (e.g., will the mean
+ precipitation decrease by 10% or more?). For large enough CO2 forcing,
+ however, probabilistic projections of precipitation-related events
+ also exhibit substantial potential economic value for a range of
+ cost-loss ratios. The treatment of climate change information in
+ a probabilistic rather than deterministic manner (e.g., using the
+ ensemble consensus forecast) can greatly enhance its potential value.},
+ doi = {10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<3212:APADMA>2.0.CO;2},
+ keywords = {OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL, TRANSIENT CO2 EXPERIMENT, COUPLED MODEL, INTEGRATIONS,
+ FORECASTS, VERSION, WEATHER, SYSTEM, SPINUP, GCM},
+ tags = {Multimodel - Ensambles}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{raftery2003,
+ author = {Raftery, A. and Balabdaoui, F. and Gneiting, T. and Polakowski, M.},
+ title = {Using {B}ayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles},
+ institution = {Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington},
+ year = {2003},
+ type = {Technical Report no. 440},
+ address = {Washington, USA},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.07.16}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{rafteryzheng2003,
+ author = {Raftery, A. and Zhang, Y.},
+ title = {Discussion: {P}erformance of {B}ayesian model averaging},
+ journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {98},
+ pages = {931--938},
+ number = {464},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23},
+ url = {http://ideas.repec.org/a/bes/jnlasa/v98y2003p931-938.html}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{rahmstorf+al2007,
+ author = {Rahmstorf, S. and Cazenave, A. and Church, J. and Hansen, J. and
+ Keeling, R. and Parker, D. and Somerville, R.},
+ title = {Recent climate observations compared to projections},
+ journal = {Science},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {316},
+ pages = {709},
+ number = {5825},
+ abstract = {We present recent observed climate trends for carbon dioxide concentration,
+ global mean air temperature, and global sea level, and we compare
+ these trends to previous model projections as summarized in the 2001
+ assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
+ (IPCC). The IPCC scenarios and projections start in the year 1990,
+ which is also the base year of the Kyoto protocol, in which almost
+ all industrialized nations accepted a binding commitment to reduce
+ their greenhouse gas emissions. The data available for the period
+ since 1990 raise concerns that the climate system, in particular
+ sea level, may be responding more quickly to climate change than
+ our current generation of models indicates.},
+ doi = {10.1126/science.1136843},
+ pmid = {17272686},
+ tags = {Global Cycle}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{rajemujumdar2010,
+ author = {Raje, D. and Mujumdar, P.},
+ title = {Reservoir performance under uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of
+ climate change},
+ journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {33},
+ pages = {312--326},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {Relatively few studies have addressed water management and adaptation
+ measures in the face of changing water balances due to climate change.
+ The current work studies climate change impact on a multipurpose
+ reservoir performance and derives adaptive policies for possible
+ future scenarios. The method developed in this work is illustrated
+ with a case study of Hirakud reservoir on the Mahanadi river in Orissa,
+ India, which is a multipurpose reservoir serving flood control, irrigation
+ and power generation. Climate change effects on annual hydropower
+ generation and four performance indices (reliability with respect
+ to three reservoir functions, viz. hydropower, irrigation and flood
+ control, resiliency, vulnerability and deficit ratio with respect
+ to hydropower) are studied. Outputs from three general circulation
+ models (GCMs) for three scenarios each are downscaled to monsoon
+ streamflow in the Mahanadi river for two future time slices, 2045--65
+ and 2075--95. Increased irrigation demands, rule curves dictated
+ by increased need for flood storage and downscaled projections of
+ streamflow from the ensemble of GCMs and scenarios are used for projecting
+ future hydrologic scenarios. It is seen that hydropower generation
+ and reliability with respect to hydropower and irrigation are likely
+ to show a decrease in future in most scenarios, whereas the deficit
+ ratio and vulnerability are likely to increase as a result of climate
+ change if the standard operating policy (SOP) using current rule
+ curves for flood protection is employed. An optimal monthly operating
+ policy is then derived using stochastic dynamic programming (SDP)
+ as an adaptive policy for mitigating impacts of climate change on
+ reservoir operation. The objective of this policy is to maximize
+ reliabilities with respect to multiple reservoir functions of hydropower,
+ irrigation and flood control. In variations to this adaptive policy,
+ increasingly more weightage is given to the purpose of maximizing
+ reliability with respect to hydropower for two extreme scenarios.
+ It is seen that by marginally sacrificing reliability with respect
+ to irrigation and flood control, hydropower reliability and generation
+ can be increased for future scenarios. This suggests that reservoir
+ rules for flood control may have to be revised in basins where climate
+ change projects an increasing probability of droughts. However, it
+ is also seen that power generation is unable to be restored to current
+ levels, due in part to the large projected increases in irrigation
+ demand. This suggests that future water balance deficits may limit
+ the success of adaptive policy options},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.advwatres.2009.12.008},
+ keywords = {Reservoir performance, Climate change, Uncertainty, Adaptive policy},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, Impacts, Disturbed Catchment}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{ramarao1995,
+ author = {{RamaRao}, B. and {LaVenue}, A. and {de Marsily}, G. and Marietta,
+ M.},
+ title = {Pilot point methodology for automated calibration of an ensemble
+ of conditionally simulated transmissivity fields. 1. {T}heory and
+ computational experiments},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1995},
+ volume = {31},
+ pages = {475--493},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {A new methodology for solution of the inverse problem in groundwater
+ hydrology is proposed and applied to a site in southeastern New Mexico
+ with extensive hydrogeologic data. The methodology addresses the
+ issue of nonuniqueness of the inverse solutions by generating an
+ ensemble of transmissivity fields considered to be equally likely,
+ each of which is in agreement with the measured transmissivity and
+ pressure data. It consists of generating a selected number of conditionally
+ simulated transmissivity fields and then calibrating each of the
+ fields to match the measured steady state or transient pressures,
+ in a least squares sense. The calibration phase involves an iterative
+ implementation of an automated pilot point approach coupled with
+ conditional simulations. Pilot points are the parameters of calibration.
+ They are synthetic transmissivity data which are added to the transmissivity
+ database to produce a revised conditional simulation during calibration.
+ Coupled kriging and adjoint sensitivity analysis is employed for
+ the optimal location of pilot points, and gradient search methods
+ are used to derive their optimal transmissivities. The pilot point
+ methodology is well suited for characterizing the spatial variability
+ of the transmissivity field in contrast to methods using zonation.
+ Pilot points are located where their potential for minimizing the
+ objective function is the highest. This minimizes the perturbations
+ in the transmissivities which are optimally assigned to the pilot
+ point and results in minimal changes to the covariance structure
+ of the transmissivity field. The calibrated fields honor the transmissivity
+ measurements at their locations, preserve the variogram, and match
+ the measured pressures in a least squares sense. Since there are
+ numerous options in the execution of this methodology, computational
+ experiments have been conducted to identify the most efficient among
+ them. The method has been applied to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant
+ (WIPP) site, in southeastern New Mexico, where the U.S. Department
+ of Energy is conducting probabilistic system assessment for the permanent
+ disposal of transuranic nuclear waste. The resulting calibrated transmissivity
+ fields are input to a Monte Carlo analysis of the total system performance.
+ The present paper, paper 1 of a two-paper presentation, describes
+ the methodology. Paper 2, a companion paper, presents the methodology's
+ application to the WIPP site.},
+ doi = {10.1029/94WR02258},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.09.11}
+}
+
+@INCOLLECTION{randall+al2007,
+ author = {Randall, D. and Wood, R. and Bony, S. and Colman, R. and Fichefet,
+ T. and Fyfe, J. and Kattsov, V. and Pitman, A. and Shukla, J. and
+ Srinivasan, J. and Stouffer, R. and Sumi, A. and Taylor, K.},
+ title = {Climate models and their evaluation},
+ booktitle = {Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of
+ Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
+ Panel on Climate Change},
+ publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
+ year = {2007},
+ editor = {S. Solomon and D. Qin and M. Manning and Z. Chen and M. Marquis and
+ K. B. Averyt and M. Tignor and H. L. Miller},
+ address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
+ tags = {IPCC}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{rankinen2006,
+ author = {Rankinen, K. and Karvonen, T. and Butterfield, D.},
+ title = {An application of the {GLUE} methodology for estimating the parameters
+ of the {INCA}--{N} model},
+ journal = {Science of the Total Environment},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {365},
+ pages = {123--139},
+ number = {1--3},
+ abstract = {The conceptual and parameter uncertainty of the semi-distributed INCA-N
+ (Integrated Nutrients in Catchments—Nitrogen) model was studied using
+ the GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) methodology
+ combined with quantitative experimental knowledge, the concept known
+ as ‘soft data’. Cumulative inorganic N leaching, annual plant N uptake
+ and annual mineralization proved to be useful soft data to constrain
+ the parameter space. The INCA-N model was able to simulate the seasonal
+ and inter-annual variations in the stream-water nitrate concentrations,
+ although the lowest concentrations during the growing season were
+ not reproduced. This suggested that there were some retention processes
+ or losses either in peatland/wetland areas or in the river which
+ were not included in the INCA-N model. The results of the study suggested
+ that soft data was a way to reduce parameter equifinality, and that
+ the calibration and testing of distributed hydrological and nutrient
+ leaching models should be based both on runoff and/or nutrient concentration
+ data and the qualitative knowledge of experimentalist.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2006.02.034},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{rapaiczeljko2009,
+ author = {Rapai{\'c}, M. and Kanovi{\'c}, {\v{Z}}},
+ title = {Time-varying PSO - convergence analysis, convergence-related parameterization
+ and new parameter adjustment schemes},
+ journal = {Information Processing Letters},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {109},
+ pages = {548--552},
+ number = {11},
+ abstract = {In this paper, a formal convergence analysis of the conventional PSO
+ algorithms with time-varying parameters is presented. Based on this
+ analysis, a new convergence-related parametric model for the conventional
+ PSO is introduced. Finally, several new schemes for parameter adjustment,
+ providing significant performance benefits, are introduced. Performance
+ of these schemes is empirically compared to conventional PSO algorithms
+ on a set of selected benchmarks. The tests prove effectiveness of
+ the newly introduced schemes, especially regarding their ability
+ to efficiently explore the search space.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.ipl.2009.01.021},
+ keywords = {Analysis of algorithms, Global optimization, Particle Swarm Optimization},
+ tags = {Calibration, PSO}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{ratnaweera+al2004,
+ author = {Ratnaweera, A. and Halgamuge, S. and Watson, H.},
+ title = {Self-Organizing Hierarchical Particle Swarm Optimizer With Time-Varying
+ Acceleration Coefficients},
+ journal = {IEEE Transactions on Evolutionary Computation},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {8},
+ pages = {240--255},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {This paper introduces a novel parameter automation strategy for the
+ particle swarm algorithm and two further extensions to improve its
+ performance after a predefined number of generations. Initially,
+ to efficiently control the local search and convergence to the global
+ optimum solution, time-varying acceleration coefficients (TVAC) are
+ introduced in addition to the time-varying inertia weight factor
+ in particle swarm optimization (PSO). From the basis of TVAC, two
+ new strategies are discussed to improve the performance of the PSO.
+ First, the concept of "mutation" is introduced to the particle swarm
+ optimization along with TVAC (MPSO-TVAC), by adding a small perturbation
+ to a randomly selected modulus of the velocity vector of a random
+ particle by predefined probability. Second, we introduce a novel
+ particle swarm concept "self-organizing hierarchical particle swarm
+ optimizer with TVAC (HPSO-TVAC)". Under this method, only the "social"
+ part and the "cognitive" part of the particle swarm strategy are
+ considered to estimate the new velocity of each particle and particles
+ are reinitialized whenever they are stagnated in the search space.
+ In addition, to overcome the difficulties of selecting an appropriate
+ mutation step size for different problems, a time-varying mutation
+ step size was introduced. Further, for most of the benchmarks, mutation
+ probability is found to be insensitive to the performance of MPSO-TVAC
+ method. On the other hand, the effect of reinitialization velocity
+ on the performance of HPSO-TVAC method is also observed. Time-varying
+ reinitialization step size is found to be an efficient parameter
+ optimization strategy for HPSO-TVAC method. The HPSO-TVAC strategy
+ outperformed all the methods considered in this investigation for
+ most of the functions. Furthermore, it has also been observed that
+ both the MPSO and HPSO strategies perform poorly when the acceleration
+ coefficients are fixed at two.},
+ doi = {10.1109/TEVC.2004.826071},
+ keywords = {internal combustion spark ignition engines, parameter automation strategy,
+ parameter estimation, self-organizing hierarchical particle swarm
+ optimizer, time-varying acceleration coefficients, time-varying inertia
+ weight factor, optimisation, parameter estimation},
+ mzbnote = {TVc1, TVc2},
+ tags = {Calibration, PSO}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{rauscher+al2010,
+ author = {Rauscher, S. and Coppola, E. and PIani, C. and Girogi, F.},
+ title = {{Resolution effects on regional climate model simulations of seasonal
+ precipitation over Europe}},
+ journal = {Climate Dynamics},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {35},
+ pages = {685--711},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {We analyze a set of nine regional climate model simulations for the
+ period 1961–2000 performed at 25 and 50 km horizontal grid spacing
+ over a European domain in order to determine the effects of horizontal
+ resolution on the simulation of precipitation. All of the models
+ represent the seasonal mean spatial patterns and amount of precipitation
+ fairly well. Most models exhibit a tendency to over-predict precipitation,
+ resulting in a domain-average total bias for the ensemble mean of
+ about 20% in winter (DJF) and less than 10% in summer (JJA) at both
+ resolutions, although this bias could be artificially enhanced by
+ the lack of a gauge correction in the observations. A majority of
+ the models show increased precipitation at 25Â km relative to 50Â km
+ over the oceans and inland seas in DJF, JJA, and ANN (annual average),
+ although the response is strongest during JJA. The ratio of convective
+ precipitation to total precipitation decreases over land for most
+ models at 25Â km. In addition, there is an increase in interannual
+ variability in many of the models at 25Â km grid spacing. Comparison
+ with gridded observations indicates that a majority of models show
+ improved skill in simulating both the spatial pattern and temporal
+ evolution of precipitation at 25Â km compared to 50Â km during the
+ summer months, but not in winter or on an annual mean basis. Model
+ skill at higher resolution in simulating the spatial and temporal
+ character of seasonal precipitation is found especially for Great
+ Britain. This geographic dependence of the increased skill suggests
+ that observed data of sufficient density are necessary to capture
+ fine-scale climate signals. As climate models increase their horizontal
+ resolution, it is thus a key priority to produce high quality fine
+ scale observations for model evaluation.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00382-009-0607-7},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.01.12}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{reddykumar2007,
+ author = {Reddy, J. and Kumar, N.},
+ title = {Multi-objective particle swarm optimization for generating optimal
+ trade-offs in reservoir operation},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {21},
+ pages = {2897--2909},
+ number = {21},
+ abstract = {A multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) approach is
+ presented for generating Pareto-optimal solutions for reservoir operation
+ problems. This method is developed by integrating Pareto dominance
+ principles into particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. In addition,
+ a variable size external repository and an efficient elitist-mutation
+ (EM) operator are introduced. The proposed EM-MOPSO approach is first
+ tested for few test problems taken from the literature and evaluated
+ with standard performance measures. It is found that the EM-MOPSO
+ yields efficient solutions in terms of giving a wide spread of solutions
+ with good convergence to true Pareto optimal solutions. On achieving
+ good results for test cases, the approach was applied to a case study
+ of multi-objective reservoir operation problem, namely the Bhadra
+ reservoir system in India. The solutions of EM-MOPSOs yield a trade-off
+ curve/surface, identifying a set of alternatives that define optimal
+ solutions to the problem. Finally, to facilitate easy implementation
+ for the reservoir operator, a simple but effective decision-making
+ approach was presented. The results obtained show that the proposed
+ approach is a viable alternative to solve multi-objective water resources
+ and hydrology problems.},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.6507},
+ keywords = {Multi-objective optimization, Particle swarm optimization, Elitist-mutation,
+ Reservoir operation, Hydropower, Irrigation, Water quality, Pareto
+ optimal solutions},
+ tags = {Disturbed Catchments, PSO, Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{refsgaard+al2010,
+ author = {Refsgaard, J. and Hansen, J.},
+ title = {A good-looking catchment can turn into a modeller's nightmare},
+ journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {55},
+ pages = {899--912},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {This paper tells a real-life story of a modelling study that in many
+ respects, failed to achieve its objectives. The study was carried
+ out in 2003 as part of a Danish government policy process aiming
+ to identify cost-effective measures to reduce nitrate loads from
+ agricultural diffuse pollution in order to be able to meet Water
+ Framework Directive requirements (of achieving good ecological status
+ in surface water by 2015). To support this process, we established
+ a distributed model that we expected could provide reliable predictions
+ of the impacts of local-scale measures. The distributed model established
+ for the 1312-km2 Odense Pilot River Basin was based on a combination
+ of two model codes: (a) DAISY, which simulated root zone processes;
+ and (b) MIKE SHE/MIKE 11, which simulated the catchment flow and
+ transport processes in surface water and groundwater using a 500-m
+ horizontal grid and nine subsurface layers. The reliability of the
+ modelling results turned out to be significantly poorer than the
+ expectations. The simulations of catchment discharge were not as
+ good as previous simulations with lumped models, owing to inappropriate
+ conceptualisation of the catchment heterogeneity. Subsequent analysis
+ in a PhD study showed that the dominating nitrate reduction process
+ in the subsurface (where more than 50\% of the nitrate disappears)
+ is governed by geological heterogeneity with length scales smaller
+ than the grid size of the numerical model. This poses a severe limitation
+ for predicting the effects of local-scale measures, which was one
+ of the reasons for choosing a distributed modelling approach. The
+ entire modelling process was carried out in a policy context with
+ very short deadlines, few allocated resources, and confusion about
+ the terms of reference and the roles and functions of the actors
+ involved. This context, which is far from the ideal modelling process
+ recommended in protocols for good modelling practice, contributed
+ significantly to the problems experienced. },
+ doi = {10.1080/02626667.2010.505571},
+ tags = {Calibration, Philosophical}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{refsgaard2004,
+ author = {Refsgaard, J. and Henriksen, H.},
+ title = {Modelling guidelines--terminology and guiding principles},
+ journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {27},
+ pages = {71--82},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {Some scientists argue, with reference to Popper’s scientific philosophical
+ school, that models cannot be verified or validated. Other scientists
+ and many practitioners nevertheless use these terms, but with very
+ different meanings. As a result of an increasing number of examples
+ of model malpractice and mistrust to the credibility of models, several
+ modelling guidelines are being elaborated in recent years with the
+ aim of improving the quality of modelling studies. This gap between
+ the views and the lack of consensus experienced in the scientific
+ community and the strongly perceived need for commonly agreed modelling
+ guidelines is constraining the optimal use and benefits of models.
+ This paper proposes a framework for quality assurance guidelines,
+ including a consistent terminology and a foundation for a methodology
+ bridging the gap between scientific philosophy and pragmatic modelling.
+ A distinction is made between the conceptual model, the model code
+ and the site-specific model. A conceptual model is subject to confirmation
+ or falsification like scientific theories. A model code may be verified
+ within given ranges of applicability and ranges of accuracy, but
+ it can never be universally verified. Similarly, a model may be validated,
+ but only with reference to site-specific applications and to pre-specified
+ performance (accuracy) criteria. Thus, a model’s validity will always
+ be limited in terms of space, time, boundary conditions and types
+ of application. This implies a continuous interaction between manager
+ and modeller in order to establish suitable accuracy criteria and
+ predictions associated with uncertainty analysis.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.advwatres.2003.08.006},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{refsgaard2006,
+ author = {Refsgaard, J. and {Van der Sluijs}, J. and Brown, J. and {Van der
+ Keur}, P.},
+ title = {A framework for dealing with uncertainty due to model structure error},
+ journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {29},
+ pages = {1586--1597},
+ number = {11},
+ abstract = {Although uncertainty about structures of environmental models (conceptual
+ uncertainty) is often acknowledged to be the main source of uncertainty
+ in model predictions, it is rarely considered in environmental modelling.
+ Rather, formal uncertainty analyses have traditionally focused on
+ model parameters and input data as the principal source of uncertainty
+ in model predictions. The traditional approach to model uncertainty
+ analysis, which considers only a single conceptual model, may fail
+ to adequately sample the relevant space of plausible conceptual models.
+ As such, it is prone to modelling bias and underestimation of predictive
+ uncertainty. In this paper we review a range of strategies for assessing
+ structural uncertainties in models. The existing strategies fall
+ into two categories depending on whether field data are available
+ for the predicted variable of interest. To date, most research has
+ focussed on situations where inferences on the accuracy of a model
+ structure can be made directly on the basis of field data. This corresponds
+ to a situation of ‘interpolation’. However, in many cases environmental
+ models are used for ‘extrapolation’; that is, beyond the situation
+ and the field data available for calibration. In the present paper,
+ a framework is presented for assessing the predictive uncertainties
+ of environmental models used for extrapolation. It involves the use
+ of multiple conceptual models, assessment of their pedigree and reflection
+ on the extent to which the sampled models adequately represent the
+ space of plausible models.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.advwatres.2005.11.013},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{refsgaard2007,
+ author = {Refsgaard, J. and {Van der Sluijs}, J. and H{\o}jberg, A. and Vanrolleghem,
+ P.},
+ title = {Uncertainty in the environmental modelling process--{A} framework
+ and guidance},
+ journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {22},
+ pages = {1543--1556},
+ number = {11},
+ abstract = {A terminology and typology of uncertainty is presented together with
+ a framework for the modelling process, its interaction with the broader
+ water management process and the role of uncertainty at different
+ stages in the modelling processes. Brief reviews have been made of
+ 14 different (partly complementary) methods commonly used in uncertainty
+ assessment and characterisation: data uncertainty engine (DUE), error
+ propagation equations, expert elicitation, extended peer review,
+ inverse modelling (parameter estimation), inverse modelling (predictive
+ uncertainty), Monte Carlo analysis, multiple model simulation, NUSAP,
+ quality assurance, scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis, stakeholder
+ involvement and uncertainty matrix. The applicability of these methods
+ has been mapped according to purpose of application, stage of the
+ modelling process and source and type of uncertainty addressed. It
+ is concluded that uncertainty assessment is not just something to
+ be added after the completion of the modelling work. Instead uncertainty
+ should be seen as a red thread throughout the modelling study starting
+ from the very beginning, where the identification and characterisation
+ of all uncertainty sources should be performed jointly by the modeller,
+ the water manager and the stakeholders.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2007.02.004},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{refsgaard2005,
+ author = {Refsgaard, J. and {Van der Sluijs}, J. and H{\o}jberg, A. and Vanrolleghem,
+ P.},
+ title = {Uncertainty analysis. {H}armoni--{CA} {Guidance N0. 1}},
+ year = {2005},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.03.26}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{reilly+al2001,
+ author = {Reilly, J. and Stone, P. and Forest, C. and Webster, M. and Jacoby,
+ H. and Prinn, R.},
+ title = {Climate change. {U}ncertainty and climate change assessments},
+ journal = {Science},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {293},
+ pages = {430--433},
+ number = {5529},
+ abstract = {Clear and quantitative discussion of uncertainties is critical for
+ public policy making on climate change. The recently completed report
+ of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessed the uncertainty
+ in its findings and forecasts. The uncertainty assessment process
+ of the IPCC should be improved in the future by using a consistent
+ approach to quantifying uncertainty, focusing the quantification
+ on the few key results most important for policy making. The uncertainty
+ quantification procedure should be fully documented, and if expert
+ judgment is used, a specific list of the experts consulted should
+ be included},
+ doi = {10.1126/science.1062001},
+ pmid = {11463897},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, Thesis}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{renard2010,
+ author = {Renard, B. and Kavetski, D. and Kuczera, G. and Thyer, M. and Franks,
+ S.},
+ title = {Understanding predictive uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: {T}he
+ challenge of identifying input and structural errors},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {46},
+ pages = {W05521},
+ abstract = {Meaningful quantification of data and structural uncertainties in
+ conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling is a major scientific and engineering
+ challenge. This paper focuses on the total predictive uncertainty
+ and its decomposition into input and structural components under
+ different inference scenarios. Several Bayesian inference schemes
+ are investigated, differing in the treatment of rainfall and structural
+ uncertainties, and in the precision of the priors describing rainfall
+ uncertainty. Compared with traditional lumped additive error approaches,
+ the quantification of the total predictive uncertainty in the runoff
+ is improved when rainfall and/or structural errors are characterized
+ explicitly. However, the decomposition of the total uncertainty into
+ individual sources is more challenging. In particular, poor identifiability
+ may arise when the inference scheme represents rainfall and structural
+ errors using separate probabilistic models. The inference becomes
+ ill-posed unless sufficiently precise prior knowledge of data uncertainty
+ is supplied; this ill-posedness can often be detected from the behavior
+ of the Monte Carlo sampling algorithm. Moreover, the priors on the
+ data quality must also be sufficiently accurate if the inference
+ is to be reliable and support meaningful uncertainty decomposition.
+ Our findings highlight the inherent limitations of inferring inaccurate
+ hydrologic models using rainfall-runoff data with large unknown errors.
+ Bayesian total error analysis can overcome these problems using independent
+ prior information. The need for deriving independent descriptions
+ of the uncertainties in the input and output data is clearly demonstrated.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2009WR008328},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.21}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{renard+al2008,
+ author = {Renard, B. and Lang, M. and Bois, P. and Dupeyrat, A. and Mestre,
+ O. and Niel, H. and Sauquet, E. and Prudhomme, C. and Parey, S. and
+ Paquet, E. and Neppel, L. and Gailhard, J.},
+ title = {Regional methods for trend detection: Assessing field significance
+ and regional consistency},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {44},
+ pages = {W08419},
+ doi = {10.1029/2007WR006268},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.06.26}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{renard2007,
+ author = {Renard, P.},
+ title = {Stochastic hydrogeology: {W}hat professionals really need?},
+ journal = {Ground Water},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {45},
+ pages = {531--541},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {Quantitative hydrogeology celebrated its 150th anniversary in 2006.
+ Geostatistics is younger but has had a very large impact in hydrogeology.
+ Today, geostatistics is used routinely to interpolate deterministically
+ most of the parameters that are required to analyze a problem or
+ make a quantitative analysis. In a small number of cases, geostatistics
+ is combined with deterministic approaches to forecast uncertainty.
+ At a more academic level, geostatistics is used extensively to study
+ physical processes in heterogeneous aquifers. Yet, there is an important
+ gap between the academic use and the routine applications of geostatistics.
+ The reasons for this gap are diverse. These include aspects related
+ to the hydrogeology consulting market, technical reasons such as
+ the lack of widely available software, but also a number of misconceptions.
+ A change in this situation requires acting at different levels. First,
+ regulators must be convinced of the benefit of using geostatistics.
+ Second, the economic potential of the approach must be emphasized
+ to customers. Third, the relevance of the theories needs to be increased.
+ Last, but not least, software, data sets, and computing infrastructure
+ such as grid computing need to be widely available.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1745-6584.2007.00340.x},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.25}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{reynard+al2001,
+ author = {Reynard, N. and Prudhomme, C. and Crooks, S.},
+ title = {The flood characteristics of large {U.K.} rivers: potential effects
+ of climate and land use},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {48},
+ pages = {343--359},
+ number = {2--3},
+ abstract = {A continuous flow simulation model(CLASSIC) has been used to assess
+ the potential impactof climate and land use changes on the flood
+ regimesof large U.K. catchments. Climate change scenarios,based on
+ the HadCM2 experiments from the HadleyCentre, are applied to the
+ Severn and Thames rivers.The analysis shows that, for the 2050s,
+ the climatechange scenarios result in an increase in both thefrequency
+ and magnitude of flooding events in theserivers. The various ways
+ of applying the rainfallscenario can have a significant effect on
+ thesegeneral conclusions, although generally do not affecteither
+ the direction or consistency of the changes.While lsquobest guessrsquo
+ land use changes show little impacton flood response, a 50% increase
+ in forest covercould counter-act the impact of climate change. Aswould
+ be expected, a large change in the urban coverof the catchments does
+ have a large effect on theflood regimes, increasing both the frequency
+ andmagnitude of floods significantly beyond the changesdue to climate
+ alone. Further research is requiredinto the potential impacts of
+ seasonal changes in thedaily rainfall and potential evaporation regimes,
+ landuse changes and the interaction between the two.},
+ doi = {10.1023/A:1010735726818},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.08.04}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{rijks+al1998,
+ author = {Rijks, D. and Terres, J. and Vossen, P.},
+ title = {Agrometeorological applications for regional crop monitoring and
+ production assessment},
+ institution = {European Commission, Joint Research Centre},
+ year = {1998},
+ number = {EUR 17735},
+ address = {Ispra, Italy},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.08.17}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{risacher2003,
+ author = {Risacher, F. and Alonso, H. and Salazar, C.},
+ title = {The origin of brines and salts in {C}hilean salar: {A} hydrochemical
+ review},
+ journal = {Earth-Sciences Reviews},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {63},
+ pages = {249--293},
+ number = {3--4},
+ abstract = {Northern Chile is characterized by a succession of north–south-trending
+ ranges and basins occupied by numerous saline lakes and salt crusts,
+ collectively called salars. Fossil salt crusts are found to the west
+ in the extremely arid Central Valley, while active salars receiving
+ permanent inflows fill many intravolcanic basins to the east in the
+ semiarid Cordillera. Sea salts and desert dust are blown eastward
+ over the Cordillera, where they constitute an appreciable fraction
+ of the solute load of very dilute waters (salt content<0.1 g/l).
+ The weathering of volcanic rocks contributes most components to inflow
+ waters with salt content ranging from 0.1 to 0.6 g/l. However, the
+ average salt content of all inflows is much higher: about 3.2 g/l.
+ Chemical composition, Cl/Br ratio, and 18O–2H isotope contents point
+ to the mixing of very dilute meteoric waters with present lake brines
+ for the origin of saline inflows. Ancient gypsum in deep sedimentary
+ formations seems to be the only evaporitic mineral recycled in present
+ salars. Saline lakes and subsurface brines are under steady-state
+ regime. The average residence time of conservative components ranges
+ from a few years to some thousands years, which indicates a permanent
+ leakage of the brines through bottom sediments. The infiltrating
+ brines are recycled in the hydrologic system where they mix with
+ dilute meteoric waters. High heat flow is the likely driving force
+ that moves the deep waters in this magmatic arc region. Active Chilean
+ salars cannot be considered as terminal lakes nor, strictly speaking,
+ as closed basin lakes. Almost all incoming salts leave the basin
+ and are transported elsewhere. Moreover, the dissolution of fossil
+ salt crusts in some active salars also carries away important fluxes
+ of components in percolating brines. Evaporative concentration of
+ inflow waters leads to sulfate-rich or calcium-rich, near-neutral
+ brines. Alkaline brines are almost completely lacking. The alkalinity/calcium
+ ratio of inflow waters is lowered by the oxidation of native sulfur
+ (reducing alkalinity) and the deposition of eolian gypsum (increasing
+ Ca concentration). Theoretically, SO4-rich inflow waters and their
+ derived SO4-rich brines should be found in the intravolcanic basins
+ of the Cordillera because of the ubiquity of native sulfur, while
+ Ca-rich brines should prevail in sedimentary basins where Ca-rich
+ minerals are abundant. This relation is perfectly observed in the
+ salar de Atacama, the largest in Chile. However, several salars located
+ within the volcanic Cordillera belong to the Ca-rich group. Inflows
+ and brines may have acquired their Ca-rich composition in Pleistocene
+ time when their drainage basins were mainly sedimentary. Later on,
+ recent lava flows and ignimbrites covered the sedimentary formations.
+ Underground waters may have kept their early sedimentary signature
+ by continuous recycling. However, the weathering of volcanic rocks
+ tend to slowly shift the water compositions from the Ca-rich to the
+ SO4-rich type.},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0012-8252(03)00037-0},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.04.07}
+}
+
+@BOOK{robert2007,
+ title = {The {B}ayesian {C}hoice--{F}rom decision--theoretic foundations to
+ computational implementation},
+ publisher = {Springer-Verlag},
+ year = {2007},
+ author = {Robert, C.},
+ pages = {577},
+ address = {New York},
+ edition = {Second},
+ booktitle = {Springer Texts in Statistics},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ refid = {ROBERT2007},
+ timestamp = {2008.11.04}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{robertson2006,
+ author = {Robertson, R. and Mueller, U. and Bloom, L.},
+ title = {Direct sequential simulation with histogram reproduction: {A} comparison
+ of algorithms},
+ journal = {Computers \& Geosciences},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {32},
+ pages = {382--395},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {Sequential simulation is a widely used technique applied in geostatistics
+ to generate realisations that reproduce properties such as the mean,
+ variance and semivariogram. Sequential Gaussian simulation requires
+ the original variable to be transformed to a standard normal distribution
+ before implementing variography, kriging and simulation procedures.
+ Direct sequential simulation allows one to perform the simulation
+ using the original variable rather than in normal score space. The
+ shape of the local probability distribution from which simulated
+ values are drawn is generally unknown and this results in direct
+ simulation not being able to guarantee reproduction of the target
+ histogram; only the Gaussian distribution ensures reproduction of
+ the target distribution, and most geostatistical data sets are not
+ normally distributed. This problem can be overcome by defining the
+ shape of the local probability distribution through the use of constrained
+ optimisation algorithms or by using the target normal-score transformation.
+ We investigate two non-parametric approaches based on the minimisation
+ of an objective function subject to a set of linear constraints,
+ and an alternative approach that creates a lookup table using Gaussian
+ transformation. These approaches allow the variography, kriging and
+ simulation to be performed using original data values and result
+ in the reproduction of both the histogram and semivariogram, within
+ statistical fluctuations. The programs for the algorithms are written
+ in Fortran 90 and follow the GSLIB format. Routines for constrained
+ optimisation have been incorporated.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.cageo.2005.07.002},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{robinsonrahmatsamii2004,
+ author = {Robinson, J. and {Rahmat-Samii}, Y.},
+ title = {Particle Swarm Optimization in Electromagnetics},
+ journal = {IEEE Transactions on Antennas and Propagation},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {52},
+ pages = {397--407},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {The particle swarm optimization (PSO), new to the electromagnetics
+ community, is a robust stochastic evolutionary computation technique
+ based on the movement and intelligence of swarms. This paper introduces
+ a conceptual overview and detailed explanation of the PSO algorithm,
+ as well as how it can be used for electromagnetic optimizations.
+ This paper also presents several results illustrating the swarm behavior
+ in a PSO algorithm developed by the authors at UCLA specifically
+ for engineering optimizations (UCLA-PSO). Also discussed is recent
+ progress in the development of the PSO and the special considerations
+ needed for engineering implementation including suggestions for the
+ selection of parameter values. Additionally, a study of boundary
+ conditions is presented indicating the invisible wall technique outperforms
+ absorbing and reflecting wall techniques. These concepts are then
+ integrated into a representative example of optimization of a profiled
+ corrugated horn antenna.},
+ doi = {10.1109/TAP.2004.823969},
+ tags = {Calibration, PSO}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{rode+al2007,
+ author = {Rode, M. and Suhr, U. and Wriedt, G.},
+ title = {Multi-objective calibration of a river water quality model - Information
+ content of calibration data},
+ journal = {Ecological Modelling},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {204},
+ pages = {129--142},
+ number = {1-2},
+ abstract = {Substantial uncertainties exist in the identification of river water
+ quality models, which partially depend on the information content
+ of the calibration data. To evaluate the dependencies between available
+ calibration data and model predictions, investigations were conducted
+ based on a 536 km free-flowing reach of the German part of the River
+ Elbe. Five extensive flow-time-related longitudinal surveys with
+ 14 sampling locations were used. The multi-objective calibration
+ of the deterministic river water quality model QSIM was carried out
+ with the nonlinear parameter estimator PEST. At the investigated
+ river reach, parameter sensitivities were highly variable depending
+ mainly on the growth of algal biomass. Based on 30 multi-objective
+ calibration runs considering different numbers and combinations of
+ the data sets, we found that calibration was only slightly improved
+ using more than three data sets. Uncertainties can be decreased by
+ increasing the amount of calibration data. For the calibration data
+ sets, the cumulative distribution functions of the Nash and Sutcliffe
+ coefficient steepen progressively and the uncertainties of model
+ parameters decreased with an increased number of data sets included
+ in the calibration procedure. Also the combination of different calibration
+ data sets had an effect on the goodness of the model validation.
+ Most uncertainties were associated with the calculation of oxygen.
+ These findings are restricted to cases where data sets of different
+ conditions are available. The suggested methodology for model calibration
+ including a cross validation is especially suited for cases where
+ available data are limited, which is common for river water quality
+ modelling investigations. The results of this study will help model
+ users to define appropriate data collections and monitoring schemes},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.12.037},
+ keywords = {River water quality modelling, Automatic model calibration, Data information
+ content, PEST},
+ tags = {Calibration, Water Quality}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{roeckner+al1996,
+ author = {Roeckner, E. and Arpe, K. and Bengtsson, L. and Christoph, M. and
+ Claussen, M. and D\"umenil, L. and Esch, M. and Giorgetta, M. and
+ Schlese, U. and Schulzweida, U.},
+ title = {The atmospheric general circulation model {ECHAM-4}: {M}odel description
+ and simulation of present--day climate},
+ institution = {Max Planck Institute for Meteorology},
+ year = {1996},
+ type = {Report No. 218},
+ address = {Hamburg, Germany},
+ note = {{ISSN} 0937-1060},
+ tags = {Climate Models}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{echam5,
+ author = {Roeckner, E. and B\"auml, G. and Bonaventura, L. and Brokopf, R.
+ and Esch, M. and Giorgetta, M. and Hagemann, S. and Kirchner, I.
+ and Kornblueh, L. and Manzini, E. and Rhodin, A. and Sclese, U. and
+ Schulzweida, U. and Tompkins, A.},
+ title = {{The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5 Part I: Model description}},
+ institution = {Max Planck Institute for Meteorology},
+ year = {2003},
+ number = {349},
+ abstract = {A detailed description of the fth-generation ECHAM model is presented.
+ Compared to the previous version, ECHAM4, a number of substantial
+ changes have been introduced in both the numerics and physics of
+ the model. These include a ux-form semi-Lagrangian transport scheme
+ for positive de nite variables like water components and chemical
+ tracers, a new longwave radiation scheme, separate prognostic equations
+ for cloud liquid water and cloud ice, a new cloud microphysical scheme
+ and a prognostic-statistical cloud cover parameterization. The number
+ of spectral intervals is increased in both the longwave and shortwave
+ part of the spectrum. Changes have also been made in the representation
+ of land surface processes, including an implicit coupling between
+ the surface and the atmosphere, and in the representation of orographic
+ drag forces. Also, a new dataset of land surface parameters has been
+ compiled for the new model. On the other hand, horizontal and vertical
+ di usion, cumulus convection and also the spectral dynamics remain
+ essentially unchanged.},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.08.09}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{rojas2010a,
+ author = {Rojas, R. and Batelaan, O. and Feyen, L. and Dassargues, A.},
+ title = {Assessment of conceptual model uncertainty for the regional aquifer
+ {P}ampa del {T}amarugal--{N}orth {C}hile},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {14},
+ pages = {171--192},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {In this work we assess the uncertainty in modelling the groundwater
+ flow for the Pampa del Tamarugal Aquifer (PTA) – North Chile using
+ a novel and fully integrated multi-model approach aimed at explicitly
+ accounting for uncertainties arising from the definition of alternative
+ conceptual models. The approach integrates the Generalized Likelihood
+ Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA)
+ methods. For each member of an ensemble M of potential conceptualizations,
+ model weights used in BMA for multi-model aggregation are obtained
+ from GLUE-based likelihood values. These model weights are based
+ on model performance, thus, reflecting how well a conceptualization
+ reproduces an observed dataset D. GLUE-based cumulative predictive
+ distributions for each member of M are then aggregated obtaining
+ predictive distributions accounting for conceptual model uncertainties.
+ For the PTA we propose an ensemble of eight alternative conceptualizations
+ covering all major features of groundwater flow models independently
+ developed in past studies and including two recharge mechanisms which
+ have been source of debate for several years. Results showed that
+ accounting for heterogeneities in the hydraulic conductivity field
+ (a) reduced the uncertainty in the estimations of parameters and
+ state variables, and (b) increased the corresponding model weights
+ used for multi-model aggregation. This was more noticeable when the
+ hydraulic conductivity field was conditioned on available hydraulic
+ conductivity measurements. Contribution of conceptual model uncertainty
+ to the predictive uncertainty varied between 6% and 64% for ground
+ water head estimations and between 16% and 79% for ground water flow
+ estimations. These results clearly illustrate the relevance of conceptual
+ model uncertainty.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-14-171-2010},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.09.10}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{rojas2007,
+ author = {Rojas, R. and Dassargues, A.},
+ title = {Groundwater flow modelling of the regional aquifer of the {P}ampa
+ del {T}amarugal, northern {C}hile},
+ journal = {Hydrogeology Journal},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {15},
+ pages = {537--551},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {The Pampa del Tamarugal Aquifer (PTA) is an important source of groundwater
+ in northern Chile. In this study, a groundwater flow model of this
+ aquifer is developed and calibrated for the period 1983–2004. The
+ model reproduces the observed flow-field and the water balance components
+ reasonably well. Five scenarios are defined to evaluate the response
+ to different pumping situations. These scenarios show that groundwater
+ heads will continue to decrease with the present pumping discharge
+ rates. To account for variations in the model results due to uncertainties
+ in average recharge rates, randomly generated recharge realizations
+ with different levels of uncertainty are simulated. Evaporation flow
+ rates and groundwater flowing out of the modelled area seem unaffected
+ by the recharge uncertainty, whereas the storage terms can vary considerably.
+ For the most intensive pumping scenario under the generated random
+ recharge rates, it is unlikely that the cumulative discharged volume
+ from the aquifer, at the end of the simulation period, will be larger
+ than 12% of the estimated groundwater reserve. Fluctuations in simulated
+ groundwater heads due to uncertainties in the average recharge values
+ are more noticeable in certain areas. These fluctuations could explain
+ unusual behaviour in the observed groundwater heads in these areas.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10040-006-0084-6},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.07.16}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{rojas2010b,
+ author = {Rojas, R. and Feyen, L. and Batelaan, O. and Dassargues, A.},
+ title = {On the value of conditioning data to reduce conceptual model uncertainty
+ in groundwater modelling},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {46},
+ pages = {1--20},
+ number = {W08520},
+ doi = {10.1029/2009WR008822},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.04.07}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{rojas+al2012,
+ author = {Rojas, R. and Feyen, L. and Bianchi, A. and Dosio, A.},
+ title = {{Assessment of future flood hazard in Europe using a large ensemble
+ of bias-corrected regional climate simulations}},
+ journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
+ year = {2012},
+ volume = {117},
+ pages = {D17109},
+ abstract = {We assess future flood hazard in view of climate change at pan-European
+ scale using a large ensemble of climate projections. The ensemble
+ consists of simulations from 12 climate experiments conducted within
+ the ENSEMBLES project, forced by the SRES A1B emission scenario for
+ the period 1961–2100. Prior to driving the hydrological model LISFLOOD,
+ climate simulations are corrected for bias in precipitation and temperature
+ using a Quantile Mapping (QM) method. For time slices of 30 years,
+ a Gumbel distribution is fitted by the maximum likelihood method
+ through the simulated annual maximum discharges. Changes in extreme
+ river flows, here exemplified by the 100-year discharge (Q100), are
+ then analyzed with respect to a control period (1961–1990). We assess
+ the uncertainty arising from using alternative climate experiments
+ to force LISFLOOD and from the fitting of extreme value distributions.
+ Results show large discrepancies in the magnitude of change in Q100
+ among the hydrological simulations for different climate experiments,
+ with some regions even showing an opposite signal of change. Due
+ to the low signal-to-noise ratio in some areas the projected changes
+ showed not all to be statistically significant. Despite this, western
+ Europe, the British Isles and northern Italy show a robust increase
+ in future flood hazard, mainly due to a pronounced increase in extreme
+ rainfall. A decrease in Q100, on the other hand, is projected in
+ eastern Germany, Poland, southern Sweden and, to a lesser extent,
+ the Baltic countries. In these areas, the signal is dominated by
+ the strong reduction in snowmelt induced floods, which offsets the
+ increase in average and extreme precipitation.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2012JD017461},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.10.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{rojas2009,
+ author = {Rojas, R. and Feyen, L. and Dassargues, A.},
+ title = {Sensitivity analysis of prior model probabilities and the value of
+ prior knowledge in the assessment of conceptual model uncertainty
+ in groundwater modelling},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {23},
+ pages = {1131--1146},
+ number = {8},
+ abstract = {A key point in the application of multi-model Bayesian averaging techniques
+ to assess the predictive uncertainty in groundwater modelling applications
+ is the definition of prior model probabilities, which reflect the
+ prior perception about the plausibility of alternative models. In
+ this work the influence of prior knowledge and prior model probabilities
+ on posterior model probabilities, multi-model predictions, and conceptual
+ model uncertainty estimations is analysed. The sensitivity to prior
+ model probabilities is assessed using an extensive numerical analysis
+ in which the prior probability space of a set of plausible conceptualizations
+ is discretized to obtain a large ensemble of possible combinations
+ of prior model probabilities. Additionally, the value of prior knowledge
+ about alternative models in reducing conceptual model uncertainty
+ is assessed by considering three example knowledge states, expressed
+ as quantitative relations among the alternative models. A constrained
+ maximum entropy approach is used to find the set of prior model probabilities
+ that correspond to the different prior knowledge states. For illustrative
+ purposes, a three-dimensional hypothetical setup approximated by
+ seven alternative conceptual models is employed. Results show that
+ posterior model probabilities, leading moments of the predictive
+ distributions and estimations of conceptual model uncertainty are
+ very sensitive to prior model probabilities, indicating the relevance
+ of selecting proper prior probabilities. Additionally, including
+ proper prior knowledge improves the predictive performance of the
+ multi-model approach, expressed by reductions of the multi-model
+ prediction variances by up to 60% compared with a non-informative
+ case. However, the ratio between-model to total variance does not
+ substantially decrease. This suggests that the contribution of conceptual
+ model uncertainty to the total variance cannot be further reduced
+ based only on prior knowledge about the plausibility of alternative
+ models. These results advocate including proper prior knowledge about
+ alternative conceptualizations in combination with extra conditioning
+ data to further reduce conceptual model uncertainty in groundwater
+ modelling predictions.},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.7231},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.07.16}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{rojas2008,
+ author = {Rojas, R. and Feyen, L. and Dassargues, A.},
+ title = {Conceptual model uncertainty in groundwater modeling: {C}ombining
+ generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation and {B}ayesian model
+ averaging},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {44},
+ pages = {W12418},
+ number = {12},
+ abstract = {Uncertainty assessments in groundwater modeling applications typically
+ attribute all sources of uncertainty to errors in parameters and
+ inputs, neglecting what may be the primary source of uncertainty,
+ namely, errors in the conceptualization of the system. Confining
+ the set of plausible system representations to a single model leads
+ to underdispersive and prone-to-bias predictions. In this work, we
+ present a general and flexible approach that combines generalized
+ likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and Bayesian model averaging
+ (BMA) to assess uncertainty in model predictions that arise from
+ errors in model structure, inputs, and parameters. In a prior analysis,
+ a set of plausible models is selected, and the joint prior input
+ and parameter space is sampled to form potential simulators of the
+ system. For each model, the likelihood measures of acceptable simulators,
+ assigned to them based on their ability to reproduce observed system
+ behavior, are integrated over the joint input and parameter space
+ to obtain the integrated model likelihood. The latter is used to
+ weight the predictions of the respective model in the BMA ensemble
+ predictions. For illustrative purposes, we applied the methodology
+ to a three-dimensional hypothetical setup. Results showed that predictions
+ of groundwater budget terms varied considerably among competing models;
+ despite this, a set of 16 head observations used for conditioning
+ did not allow differentiating between the models. BMA provided average
+ predictions that were more conservative than individual predictions
+ obtained for individual models. Conceptual model uncertainty contributed
+ up to 30% of the total uncertainty. The results clearly indicate
+ the need to consider alternative conceptualizations to account for
+ model uncertainty.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2008WR006908},
+ keywords = { GLUE, BMA, multimodel prediction, Monte Carlo methods, uncertainty
+ assessment.},
+ tags = {Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{rojas+al2011,
+ author = {Rojas, R. and Feyen, L. and Dosio, A. and Bavera, D.},
+ title = {Improving {pan-European hydrological simulation of extreme events
+ through statistical bias correction of RCM-driven climate simulations}},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {15},
+ pages = {2599--2620},
+ number = {8},
+ abstract = {In this work we asses the benefits of removing bias in climate forcing
+ data used for hydrological climate change impact assessment at pan-European
+ scale, with emphasis on floods. Climate simulations from the HIRHAM5-ECHAM5
+ model driven by the SRES-A1B emission scenario are corrected for
+ bias using a histogram equalization method. As predictand for the
+ bias correction we employ gridded interpolated observations of precipitation,
+ average, minimum, and maximum temperature from the E-OBS data set.
+ Bias removal transfer functions are derived for the control period
+ 1961–1990. These are subsequently used to correct the climate simulations
+ for the control period, and, under the assumption of a stationary
+ error model, for the future time window 2071-2100. Validation against
+ E-OBS climatology in the control period shows that the correction
+ method performs successfully in removing bias in average and extreme
+ statistics relevant for flood simulation over the majority of the
+ European domain in all seasons. This translates into considerably
+ improved simulations with the hydrological model of observed average
+ and extreme river discharges at a majority of 554 validation river
+ stations across Europe. Probabilities of extreme events derived employing
+ extreme value techniques are also more closely reproduced. Results
+ indicate that projections of future flood hazard in Europe based
+ on uncorrected climate simulations, both in terms of their magnitude
+ and recurrence interval, are likely subject to large errors. Notwithstanding
+ the inherent limitations of the large-scale approach used herein,
+ this study strongly advocates the removal of bias in climate simulations
+ prior to their use in hydrological impact assessment.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-15-2599-2011},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.04.29}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{rojas+al2011discus,
+ author = {Rojas, R. and Feyen, L. and Dosio, A. and Bavera, D.},
+ title = {{Improving pan-european hydrological simulation of extreme events
+ through statistical bias correction of RCM-driven climate simulations}},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions},
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {8},
+ pages = {3883--3936},
+ number = {2},
+ doi = {10.5194/hessd-8-3883-2011},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.07.26}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{rojas2010c,
+ author = {Rojas, R. and Kahunde, S. and Peeters, L. and Batelaan, O. and Feyen,
+ L. and Dassargues, A.},
+ title = {Application of a multimodel approach to account for conceptual model
+ and scenario uncertainties in groundwater modelling},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {394},
+ pages = {416--435},
+ number = {3--4},
+ abstract = {Groundwater models are often used to predict the future behaviour
+ of groundwater systems. These models may vary in complexity from
+ simplified system conceptualizations to more intricate versions.
+ It has been recently suggested that uncertainties in model predictions
+ are largely dominated by uncertainties arising from the definition
+ of alternative conceptual models. Different external factors such
+ as climatic conditions or groundwater abstraction policies, on the
+ other hand, may also play an important role. Rojas et al. (2008)
+ proposed a multimodel approach to account for predictive uncertainty
+ arising from forcing data (inputs), parameters and alternative conceptualizations.
+ In this work we extend upon this approach to include uncertainties
+ arising from the definition of alternative future scenarios and we
+ apply the extended methodology to a real aquifer system underlying
+ the Walenbos Nature Reserve area in Belgium. Three alternative conceptual
+ models comprising different levels of geological knowledge are considered.
+ Additionally, three recharge settings (scenarios) are proposed to
+ evaluate recharge uncertainties. A joint estimation of the predictive
+ uncertainty including parameter, conceptual model and scenario uncertainties
+ is estimated for groundwater budget terms. Finally, results obtained
+ using the improved approach are compared with the results obtained
+ from methodologies that include a calibration step and which use
+ a model selection criterion to discriminate between alternative conceptualizations.
+ Results showed that conceptual model and scenario uncertainties significantly
+ contribute to the predictive variance for some budget terms. Besides,
+ conceptual model uncertainties played an important role even for
+ the case when a model was preferred over the others. Predictive distributions
+ showed to be considerably different in shape, central moment and
+ spread among alternative conceptualizations and scenarios analysed.
+ This reaffirms the idea that relying on a single conceptual model
+ driven by a particular scenario, will likely produce bias and under-dispersive
+ estimations of the predictive uncertainty. Multimodel methodologies
+ based on the use of model selection criteria produced ambiguous results.
+ In the frame of a multimodel approach, these inconsistencies are
+ critical and can not be neglected. These results strongly advocate
+ the idea of addressing conceptual model uncertainty in groundwater
+ modelling practice. Additionally, considering alternative future
+ recharge uncertainties will permit to obtain more realistic and,
+ possibly, more reliable estimations of the predictive uncertainty.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.09.016},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{romanowicz2010,
+ author = {Romanowicz, R.},
+ title = {An application of a log-transformed low-flow ({LTLF}) model to baseflow
+ separation},
+ journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {55},
+ pages = {952--964},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {A logarithmic transformation of flow is applied to the estimation
+ of baseflow. Such a transformation has been applied in several hydrological
+ studies since the discovery that flow is well described by a log-normal
+ distribution. However, the main purpose of previous applications
+ was normalisation of the error between simulated and observed flows.
+ The new approach proposed here consists of an application of log-transform
+ that leads to a formulation of the rainfall-flow process as a rate
+ of change, instead of a typical mass balance problem. It applies
+ a stochastic transfer function approach to log-transformed flow,
+ enabling the problem to be stated in a statistically rigorous form.
+ The difficulty in obtaining good hydrological predictions in extreme
+ conditions lies both in the nonlinear character of processes governed
+ by extreme hydrological signals and in the scarcity and inaccuracy
+ of extreme flow measurements, particularly in early records. It has
+ previously been shown that a log-transformed low-flow (LTLF) model
+ allows for the decomposition of the simulated flow into slow and
+ fast components that can be interpreted as baseflow and runoff. This
+ paper compares the baseflow estimates obtained from the LTLF model
+ with those obtained from other flow separation techniques, i.e. the
+ Wittenberg nonlinear storage model and the Chapman linear filter.
+ Also, the conditions for the applicability of the LTLF formulation
+ are stated and the discussion is illustrated using some {``}monstrous{''},
+ i.e. difficult to model, catchments from the UK and Poland. A rainfall-flow
+ model based on the logarithm of flow gives a good representation
+ of baseflow for catchments with a well-defined baseflow component.
+ },
+ doi = {10.1080/02626667.2010.505172},
+ keywords = {catchment modelling, baseflow separation, daily streamflow, logarithmic
+ transformation of flow, stochastic transfer function },
+ tags = {Calibration, Low-Flows, Goodness-of-Fit}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{romanowicz2006,
+ author = {Romanowicz, R. and Beven, K.},
+ title = {Comments on generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation},
+ journal = {Reliability Engineering \& System Safety},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {91},
+ pages = {1315--1321},
+ number = {10--11},
+ abstract = {The paper presents an application of the generalised likelihood uncertainty
+ estimation methodology to the problem of estimating the uncertainty
+ of predictions produced by environmental models. The methodology
+ is placed in a wider context of different approaches to inverse modelling
+ and, in particular, a comparison is made with Bayesian estimation
+ techniques based on explicit structural assumptions about model error.
+ Using a simple example of a rainfall-flow model, different evaluation
+ measures and their influence on the prediction uncertainty and credibility
+ intervals are demonstrated.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.ress.2005.11.030},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{romanowicz2003a,
+ author = {Romanowicz, R. and Beven, K.},
+ title = {Estimation of flood inundation probabilities as conditioned on event
+ inundation maps},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {39},
+ pages = {1073--1084},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology
+ is applied to the problem of predicting the spatially distributed,
+ time-varying probabilities of inundation of all points on a floodplain.
+ Advantage is taken of the relative independence of different effective
+ conveyance parameters to minimize the simulations required. Probability
+ estimates are based on conditioning predictions of Monte Carlo realizations
+ of a distributed quasi-two-dimensional flood routing model using
+ maps of maximum inundation and aerial photographs of flooding in
+ the area. The methodology allows posterior distributions of conveyance
+ parameters to be estimated and maps of inundation potential probabilities
+ to be drawn up for flood events of different magnitudes. The results
+ suggest that combining information from different magnitude events
+ should be done with care, as the distributions of effective parameter
+ values may vary with event magnitude. The value of accurate topographic
+ information that is consistent with mapped inundation is also highlighted.
+ The methodology can be used to obtain dynamic probabilities of floodplain
+ inundation in real time forecasting.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2001WR001056},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@INCOLLECTION{romanowicz1994,
+ author = {Romanowicz, R. and Beven, K. and Tawn, J.},
+ title = {Evaluation of prediction uncertainty in non--linear hydrological
+ models using a {B}ayesian approach},
+ booktitle = {Statistics for the environment II - Water related issues},
+ publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons Inc.},
+ year = {1994},
+ editor = {Barnett, V. and Trukman, F.},
+ address = {Chichester},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{romanowicz2003b,
+ author = {Romanowicz, R. and Young, P.},
+ title = {Data assimilation and uncertainty analysis of environmental assessment
+ problems--an application of {S}tochastic {T}ransfer {F}unction and
+ {G}eneralized {L}ikelihood {U}ncertainty {E}stimation techniques},
+ journal = {Reliability Engineering \& System Safety},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {79},
+ pages = {161--174},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {Stochastic Transfer Function (STF) and Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty
+ Estimation (GLUE) techniques are outlined and applied to an environmental
+ problem concerned with marine dose assessment. The goal of both methods
+ in this application is the estimation and prediction of the environmental
+ variables, together with their associated probability distributions.
+ In particular, they are used to estimate the amount of radionuclides
+ transferred to marine biota from a given source: the British Nuclear
+ Fuel Ltd (BNFL) repository plant in Sellafield, UK. The complexity
+ of the processes involved, together with the large dispersion and
+ scarcity of observations regarding radionuclide concentrations in
+ the marine environment, require efficient data assimilation techniques.
+ In this regard, the basic STF methods search for identifiable, linear
+ model structures that capture the maximum amount of information contained
+ in the data with a minimal parameterisation. They can be extended
+ for on-line use, based on recursively updated Bayesian estimation
+ and, although applicable to only constant or time-variable parameter
+ (non-stationary) linear systems in the form used in this paper, they
+ have the potential for application to non-linear systems using recently
+ developed State Dependent Parameter (SDP) non-linear STF models.
+ The GLUE based-methods, on the other hand, formulate the problem
+ of estimation using a more general Bayesian approach, usually without
+ prior statistical identification of the model structure. As a result,
+ they are applicable to almost any linear or non-linear stochastic
+ model, although they are much less efficient both computationally
+ and in their use of the information contained in the observations.
+ As expected in this particular environmental application, it is shown
+ that the STF methods give much narrower confidence limits for the
+ estimates due to their more efficient use of the information contained
+ in the data. Exploiting Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) analysis, the
+ GLUE technique is used to estimate how the errors involved in the
+ STF model structure and observations influence the model outputs
+ and errors. The discussion on updating information originating from
+ different locations using GLUE procedure is also given. A final aim
+ of the paper is to use the results obtained in this particular example
+ to explore the differences between the GLUE and STF approaches.},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0951-8320(02)00227-2},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{rouhani+al2007,
+ author = {Rouhani, H. and Willems, P. and Wyseure, G. and Feyen, J.},
+ title = {Parameter estimation in semi-distributed hydrological catchment modelling
+ using a multi-criteria objective function},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {21},
+ pages = {2998--3008},
+ number = {22},
+ abstract = {Output generated by hydrologic simulation models is traditionally
+ calibrated and validated using split-samples of observed time series
+ of total water flow, measured at the drainage outlet of the river
+ basin. Although this approach might yield an optimal set of model
+ parameters, capable of reproducing the total flow, it has been observed
+ that the flow components making up the total flow are often poorly
+ reproduced. Previous research suggests that notwithstanding the underlying
+ physical processes are often poorly mimicked through calibration
+ of a set of parameters hydrologic models most of the time acceptably
+ estimates the total flow. The objective of this study was to calibrate
+ and validate a computer-based hydrologic model with respect to the
+ total and slow flow. The quick flow component used in this study
+ was taken as the difference between the total and slow flow. Model
+ calibrations were pursued on the basis of comparing the simulated
+ output with the observed total and slow flow using qualitative (graphical)
+ assessments and quantitative (statistical) indicators. The study
+ was conducted using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model
+ and a 10-year historical record (1986-1995) of the daily flow components
+ of the Grote Nete River basin (Belgium). The data of the period 1986-1989
+ were used for model calibration and data of the period 1990-1995
+ for model validation. The predicted daily average total flow matched
+ the observed values with a Nash-Sutcliff coefficient of 0{$\cdot$}67
+ during calibration and 0{$\cdot$}66 during validation. The Nash-Sutcliff
+ coefficient for slow flow was 0{$\cdot$}72 during calibration and
+ 0{$\cdot$}61 during validation. Analysis of high and low flows indicated
+ that the model is unbiased. A sensitivity analysis revealed that
+ for the modelling of the daily total flow, accurate estimation of
+ all 10 calibration parameters in the SWAT model is justified, while
+ for the slow flow processes only 4 out of the set of 10 parameters
+ were identified as most sensitive},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.6527},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{rowell2006,
+ author = {Rowell, D.},
+ title = {A demonstration of the uncertainty in projections of {UK} climate
+ change resulting from regional model formulation},
+ journal = {Climate Change},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {79},
+ pages = {243--257},
+ number = {3--4},
+ abstract = {Regional climate models (RCMs) are now commonly used to downscale
+ climate change projections provided by global coupled models to resolutions
+ that can be utilised at national and finer scales. Although this
+ extra tier of complexity adds significant value, it inevitably contributes
+ a further source of uncertainty, due to the regional modelling uncertainties
+ involved. Here, an initial attempt is made to estimate the uncertainty
+ that arises from typical variations in RCM formulation, focussing
+ on changes in UK surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation
+ projected for the late twenty-first century. Data are provided by
+ a relatively large suite of RCM and global model integrations with
+ widely varying formulations. It is found that uncertainty in the
+ formulation of the RCM has a relatively small, but non-negligible,
+ impact on the range of possible outcomes of future UK seasonal mean
+ climate. This uncertainty is largest in the summer season. It is
+ also similar in magnitude to that of large-scale internal variations
+ of the coupled climate system, and for SAT, it is less than the uncertainty
+ due to the emissions scenario, whereas for precipitation it is probably
+ larger. The largest source of uncertainty, for both variables and
+ in all seasons, is the formulation of the global coupled model. The
+ scale-dependency of uncertainty due to RCM formulation is also explored
+ by considering its impact on projections of the difference in climate
+ change between the north and south of the UK. Finally, the implications
+ for the reliability of UK seasonal mean climate change projections
+ are discussed.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10584-006-9100-z},
+ tags = {Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{rowell2005,
+ author = {Rowell, David},
+ title = {A scenario of European climate change for the late twenty-first century:
+ seasonal means and interannual variability},
+ journal = {Climate Dynamics},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {25},
+ pages = {837-849},
+ abstract = {A scenario of European climate change for the late twenty-first century
+ is described, using a high-resolution state-of-the-art model. A time-slice
+ approach is used, whereby the atmospheric general circulation model,
+ HadAM3P, was integrated for two periods, 1960–1990 and 2070–2100,
+ using the SRES A2 scenario. For the first time an ensemble of such
+ experiments was produced, along with appropriate statistical tests
+ for assessing significance. The focus is on changes to the statistics
+ of seasonal means, and includes analysis of both multi-year means
+ and interannual variance. All four seasons are assessed, and anomalies
+ are mapped for surface air temperature, precipitation and snow mass.
+ Mechanisms are proposed where these are dominated by straightforward
+ local processes. In winter, the largest warming occurs over eastern
+ Europe, up to 7°C, mean snow mass is reduced by at least 80% except
+ over Scandinavia, and precipitation increases over all but the southernmost
+ parts of Europe. In summer, temperatures rise by 6–9°C south of about
+ 50°N, and mean rainfall is substantially reduced over the same area.
+ In spring and autumn, anomalies tend to be weaker, but often display
+ patterns similar to the preceding season, reflecting the inertia
+ of the land surface component of the climate system. Changes in interannual
+ variance are substantial in the solsticial seasons for many regions
+ (note that for precipitation, variance estimates are scaled by the
+ square of the mean). In winter, interannual variability of near-surface
+ air temperature is considerably reduced over much of Europe, and
+ the relative variability of precipitation is reduced north of about
+ 50°N. In summer, the (relative) interannual variance of both variables
+ increases over much of the continent.},
+ affiliation = {Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Met Office Fitzroy
+ Road Exeter EX13PB UK},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00382-005-0068-6},
+ issn = {0930-7575},
+ issue = {7},
+ keyword = {Earth and Environmental Science},
+ publisher = {Springer Berlin / Heidelberg}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{rozos+al2004,
+ author = {Rozos, E. and Efstratiadis, A. and Nalbantis, I. and Koutsoyiannis,
+ D.},
+ title = {Calibration of a semi-distributed model for conjunctive simulation
+ of surface and groundwater flows},
+ journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {49},
+ pages = {819--842},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {A hydrological simulation model was developed for conjunctive representation
+ of surface and groundwater processes. It comprises a conceptual soil
+ moisture accounting module, based on an enhanced version of the Thornthwaite
+ model for the soil moisture reservoir, a Darcian multi-cell groundwater
+ flow module and a module for partitioning water abstractions among
+ water resources. The resulting integrated scheme is highly flexible
+ in the choice of time (i.e. monthly to daily) and space scales (catchment
+ scale, aquifer scale). Model calibration involved successive phases
+ of manual and automatic sessions. For the latter, an innovative optimization
+ method called evolutionary annealing-simplex algorithm is devised.
+ The objective function involves weighted goodness-of-fit criteria
+ for multiple variables with different observation periods, as well
+ as penalty terms for restricting unrealistic water storage trends
+ and deviations from observed intermittency of spring flows. Checks
+ of the unmeasured catchment responses through manually changing parameter
+ bounds guided choosing final parameter sets. The model is applied
+ to the particularly complex Boeoticos Kephisos basin, Greece, where
+ it accurately reproduced the main basin response, i.e. the runoff
+ at its outlet, and also other important components. Emphasis is put
+ on the principle of parsimony which resulted in a computationally
+ effective modelling. This is crucial since the model is to be integrated
+ within a stochastic simulation framework. },
+ doi = {10.1623/hysj.49.5.819.55130},
+ keywords = {conjunctive surface and groundwater use, Thornthwaite model, multi-cell
+ model, global optimization, evolutionary annealing-simplex algorithm,
+ hydrological simulation},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@BOOK{rubin2003,
+ title = {Applied stochastic hydrogeology},
+ publisher = {Oxford University Press},
+ year = {2003},
+ author = {Rubin, Y.},
+ pages = {416},
+ address = {New York},
+ edition = {First},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{rubin1987,
+ author = {Rubin, Y. and Dagan, G.},
+ title = {Stochastic identification of transmissivity and effective recharge
+ in steady groundwater flow 1. {T}heory},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1987},
+ volume = {23},
+ pages = {1185--1192},
+ number = {7},
+ abstract = {The study is a continuation and extension of a previous work (Dagan,
+ 1985a) whose aim was to identify the values of the log-transmissivity
+ Y for steady flow. The common basic assumptions are that Y is a normal
+ and stationary random space function, the aquifer is unbounded, and
+ a first-order approximation of the flow equation is adopted. The
+ expected value of the water head H, as well as the Y unconditional
+ autocovariance, are supposed to have analytical expressions which
+ depend on a parameters vector ?. The proposed solution of the inverse
+ problem consists of identifying ? with the aid of the model and of
+ the measurements of Y and H and subsequently computing the statistical
+ moments of Y conditioned on the same data, The additional features
+ of the present study are (1) incorporation of a constant, but random,
+ effective recharge and its identification and (2) accounting for
+ the fact that ? estimation is associated with some uncertainty, whereas
+ before ? was assumed to be identified with certainty. Analytical
+ expressions are derived for the Y and H covariances for an exponential
+ autocovariance of Y. Paper 2 (Rubin and Dagan, this issue) of the
+ study illustrates the applications of the method to a real-life case.},
+ doi = {10.1029/WR023i007p01185},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.10.21}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{dunn+al2008,
+ author = {Dunn; S. and Freer, J. and Weiler, M. and Kirkby, M. and Seibert,
+ J. and Quinn, P. and Lischeid, G. and Tetzlaff, D. and Soulsby, C.},
+ title = {Conceptualization in catchment modelling: simply learning?},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {22},
+ pages = {2389--2393},
+ number = {13},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.7070},
+ keywords = {SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS, SPATIAL VARIABILITY, DYNAMIC TOPMODEL, WATER,
+ UNCERTAINTY, CALIBRATION, HYDROLOGY, RUNOFF, PREDICTION, FRAMEWORK},
+ tags = {Calibration, Philosophical, conceptual model}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{sanchez2009,
+ author = {S\'anchez, E. and Romera, R. Gaertner, M. and Gallardo, C. and Castro,
+ M.},
+ title = {A weighting proposal for an ensemble of regional climate models over
+ {E}urope driven by 1961-2000 {ERA40} based on monthly precipitation
+ probability density functions},
+ journal = {Atmospheric Science Letters},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {10},
+ pages = {241--248},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {Present climate over Europe is simulated by 12 regional climate models
+ (RCMs), forced by ERA40 reanalysis. A method is proposed to score
+ models from the 1961-1990 monthly precipitation cumulative density
+ functions (CDFs) for each season and eight chosen subregions, compared
+ with the CRU observational database. Ensemble CDF curves compare
+ well against observations for all the subregions and seasons. Higher
+ percentiles (heavy precipitation amounts) show a larger spread among
+ results. Important differences in scores are obtained among models,
+ regions and seasons. Applying the scores to compute 1991-2000 weighted
+ ensemble precipitation, results are slightly closer to observations
+ than the direct (unweighted) ensemble, and some cases show a larger
+ improvement.},
+ doi = {10.1002/asl.230},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.03.08}
+}
+
+@INCOLLECTION{sahuquillo1992,
+ author = {Sahuquillo, A. and Capilla, J. and G\'omez-Hern\'andez, J. and Andreu,
+ J.},
+ title = {Conditional simulation of transmissivity fields honouring piezometric
+ data},
+ booktitle = {Hydraulic Engineering Software IV. Fluid Flow Modelling},
+ publisher = {Kluwer Academic Publishers},
+ year = {1992},
+ editor = {Blain, W. and Cabrera, E.},
+ pages = {210--214},
+ journal = {Hydraulic Engineering Software},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.09.11}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{salathe2005,
+ author = {Salath\'e, E.},
+ title = {Downscaling simulations of future global climate with application
+ to hydrologic modelling},
+ journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {25},
+ pages = {419--436},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {This study approaches the problem of downscaling global climate model
+ simulations with an emphasis on validating and selecting global models.
+ The downscaling method makes minimal, physically based corrections
+ to the global simulation while preserving much of the statistics
+ of interannual variability in the climate model. Differences among
+ the downscaled results for simulations of present-day climate form
+ a basis for model evaluation. The downscaled results are used to
+ simulate streamflow in the Yakima River, a mountainous basin in Washington,
+ USA, to illustrate how model differences affect streamflow simulations.
+ The downscaling is applied to the output of three models (ECHAM4,
+ HADCM3, and NCAR-PCM) for simulations of historic conditions (1900-2000)
+ and two future emissions scenarios (A2 and B2 for 2000-2100) from
+ the IPCC assessment. The ECHAM4 simulation closely reproduces the
+ observed statistics of temperature and precipitation for the 42 year
+ period 1949-90. Streamflow computed from this climate simulation
+ likewise produces similar statistics to streamflow computed from
+ the observed data. Downscaled climate-change scenarios from these
+ models are examined in light of the differences in the present-day
+ simulations. Streamflows simulated from the ECHAM4 results show the
+ greatest sensitivity to climate change, with the peak in summertime
+ flow occurring 2 months earlier by the end of the 21st century},
+ doi = {10.1002/joc.1125},
+ keywords = {Pacific Northwest, statistical downscaling, hydrology, hydrologic
+ modelling, precipitation, streamflow, climate change},
+ tags = {Thesis, Downscaling, Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{salathe2003,
+ author = {Salath\'e, E.},
+ title = {Comparison of various precipitation downscaling methods for the simulation
+ of streamflow in a rainshadow river basin},
+ journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {23},
+ pages = {887--901},
+ number = {8},
+ abstract = {Global simulations of precipitation from climate models lack sufficient
+ resolution and contain large biases that make them unsuitable for
+ regional studies, such as forcing hydrologic simulations. In this
+ study, the effectiveness of several methods to downscale large-scale
+ precipitation is examined. To facilitate comparisons with observations
+ and to remove uncertainties in other fields, large-scale predictor
+ fields to be downscaled are taken from the National Centers for Environmental
+ Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalyses. Three
+ downscaling methods are used: (1): a local scaling of the simulated
+ large-scale precipitation; (2) a modified scaling of simulated precipitation
+ that takes into account the large-scale wind field; and (3) an analogue
+ method with 1000 hPa heights as predictor. A hydrologic model of
+ the Yakima River in central Washington state, USA, is then forced
+ by the three downscaled precipitation datasets. Simulations with
+ the raw large-scale precipitation and gridded observations are also
+ made. Comparisons among these simulated flows reveal the effectiveness
+ of the downscaling methods. The local scaling of the simulated large-scale
+ precipitation is shown to be quite successful and simple to implement.
+ Furthermore, the tuning of the downscaling methods is valid across
+ phases of the Pacific decadal oscillation, suggesting that the methods
+ are applicable to climate-change studies},
+ doi = {10.1002/joc.922},
+ tags = {Downscaling}
+}
+
+@CONFERENCE{salazar1999,
+ author = {Salazar, C. and Rojas, L. and Pollastri, A.},
+ title = {Evaluaci\'on de recursos h\'idricos en el sector de Pica hoya de
+ la {Pampa del Tamarugal I Regi\'on-Chile}},
+ booktitle = {VI Jornadas del CONAPHI Chile},
+ year = {1999},
+ address = {Santiago, Chile},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.04.07}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{saltelli+al2000,
+ author = {Saltelli, A. and Tarantola, S. and Campolango, F.},
+ title = {Sensitivity analysis as an ingredient of modeling},
+ journal = {Statistical Science},
+ year = {2000},
+ volume = {15},
+ pages = {377--395},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {We explore the tasks where sensitivity analysis (SA) can be useful
+ and try to assess the relevance of SA within the modeling process.
+ We suggest that SA could considerably assist in the use of models,
+ by providing objective criteria of judgement for different phases
+ of the model-building process: model identification and discrimination;
+ model calibration; model corroboration. We review some new global
+ quantitative SA methods and suggest that these might enlarge the
+ scope for sensitivity analysis in computational and statistical modeling
+ practice. Among the advantages of the new methods are their robustness,
+ model independence and computational convenience. The discussion
+ is based on worked examples.},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.10.10},
+ url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2676831}
+}
+
+@BOOK{saltelli2008,
+ title = {Sensitivity analysis in practice: {A} guide to assessing scientific
+ models},
+ publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons},
+ year = {2008},
+ author = {Saltelli, A. and Tarantola, S. and Campolango, F. and Ratto, M.},
+ pages = {232},
+ address = {Chichester},
+ edition = {First},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.03.26}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{salvadori2004,
+ author = {Salvadori, G. and {De Michele}, C.},
+ title = {{Frequency analysis via copulas: Theoretical aspects and applications
+ to hydrological events}},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {40},
+ pages = {W12511},
+ abstract = {In this paper we provide a general theoretical framework exploiting
+ copulas for studying the return periods of hydrological events; in
+ particular, we consider events depending upon the joint behavior
+ of two nonindependent random variables, an approach which can easily
+ be generalized to the multivariate case. We show that using copulas
+ may greatly simplify the calculations and may even yield analytical
+ expressions for the isolines of the return periods, both in the unconditional
+ and in the conditional case. In addition, we show how a new probability
+ distribution may be associated with the return period of specific
+ events and introduce the definitions of sub-, super-, and critical
+ events as well as those of primary and secondary return periods.
+ An illustration of the techniques proposed is provided by analyzing
+ some case studies already examined in literature.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2004WR003133},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.06.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{samaniego+al2010,
+ author = {Samaniego, L. and Kumar, R. and Attinger, S.},
+ title = {Multiscale parameter regionalization of a grid-based hydrologic model
+ at the mesoscale},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {46},
+ pages = {W05523},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {The requirements for hydrological models have increased considerably
+ during the previous decades to cope with the resolution of extensive
+ remotely sensed data sets and a number of demanding applications.
+ Existing models exhibit deficiencies such as overparameterization,
+ the lack of an effective technique to integrate the spatial heterogeneity
+ of physiographic characteristics, and the nontransferability of parameters
+ across scales and locations. A multiscale parameter regionalization
+ (MPR) technique is proposed as a way to address these issues simultaneously.
+ Using this technique, parameters at a coarser scale, in which the
+ dominant hydrological processes are represented, are linked with
+ their corresponding ones at a finer resolution in which input data
+ sets are available. The linkage is done with upscaling operators
+ such as the harmonic mean, among others. Parameters at the finer
+ scale are regionalized through nonlinear transfer functions which
+ link basin predictors with global parameters to be determined through
+ calibration. MPR was compared with a standard regionalization (SR)
+ method in which basin predictors instead of model parameters are
+ first aggregated. Both methods were tested in a basin located in
+ Germany using a distributed hydrologic model. Results indicate that
+ MPR is superior to SR in many respects, especially if global parameters
+ are transferred from coarser to finer scales. Furthermore, MPR, as
+ opposed to SR, preserves the spatial variability of state variables
+ and conserves the mass balance with respect to a control scale. Cross-validation
+ tests indicate that the transferability of the global parameters
+ to ungauged locations is possible},
+ doi = {10.1029/2008WR007327},
+ tags = {Regionalization}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{sanchezetal2009,
+ author = {Sanchez-Gomez, E. and Somot, S. and D\'equ\'e, M.},
+ title = {Ability of an ensemble of regional climate models to reproduce weather
+ regimes over {E}urope-{A}tlantic during the period 1961--2000},
+ journal = {Climate Dynamics},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {33},
+ pages = {723--736},
+ number = {5},
+ month = {October},
+ abstract = {One of the main concerns in regional climate modeling is to which
+ extent limited-area regional climate models (RCM) reproduce the large-scale
+ atmospheric conditions of their driving general circulation model
+ (GCM). In this work we investigate the ability of a multi-model ensemble
+ of regional climate simulations to reproduce the large-scale weather
+ regimes of the driving conditions. The ensemble consists of a set
+ of 13 RCMs on a European domain, driven at their lateral boundaries
+ by the ERA40 reanalysis for the time period 1961–2000. Two sets of
+ experiments have been completed with horizontal resolutions of 50
+ and 25 km, respectively. The spectral nudging technique has been
+ applied to one of the models within the ensemble. The RCMs reproduce
+ the weather regimes behavior in terms of composite pattern, mean
+ frequency of occurrence and persistence reasonably well. The models
+ also simulate well the long-term trends and the inter-annual variability
+ of the frequency of occurrence. However, there is a non-negligible
+ spread among the models which is stronger in summer than in winter.
+ This spread is due to two reasons: (1) we are dealing with different
+ models and (2) each RCM produces an internal variability. As far
+ as the day-to-day weather regime history is concerned, the ensemble
+ shows large discrepancies. At daily time scale, the model spread
+ has also a seasonal dependence, being stronger in summer than in
+ winter. Results also show that the spectral nudging technique improves
+ the model performance in reproducing the large-scale of the driving
+ field. In addition, the impact of increasing the number of grid points
+ has been addressed by comparing the 25 and 50 km experiments. We
+ show that the horizontal resolution does not affect significantly
+ the model performance for large-scale circulation.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00382-008-0502-7},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.21}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{sankarasubra+al2009,
+ author = {Sankarasubramanian, A. and Lall, U. and {Souza Filho}, F. and Sharma,
+ A.},
+ title = {Improved water allocation utilizing probabilistic climate forecasts:
+ {S}hort--term water contracts in a risk management framework},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {45},
+ pages = {W11409},
+ number = {11},
+ abstract = {Probabilistic, seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts are becoming
+ increasingly available as the ability to model climate teleconnections
+ is improving. However, water managers and practitioners have been
+ slow to adopt such products, citing concerns with forecast skill.
+ Essentially, a management risk is perceived in {\grqq}gambling�
+ with operations using a probabilistic forecast, while a system failure
+ upon following existing operating policies is {\grqq}protected�
+ by the official rules or guidebook. In the presence of a prescribed
+ system of prior allocation of releases under different storage or
+ water availability conditions, the manager has little incentive to
+ change. Innovation in allocation and operation is hence key to improved
+ risk management using such forecasts. A participatory water allocation
+ process that can effectively use probabilistic forecasts as part
+ of an adaptive management strategy is introduced here. Users can
+ express their demand for water through statements that cover the
+ quantity needed at a particular reliability, the temporal distribution
+ of the {\grqq}allocation,� the associated willingness to pay, and
+ compensation in the event of contract nonperformance. The water manager
+ then assesses feasible allocations using the probabilistic forecast
+ that try to meet these criteria across all users. An iterative process
+ between users and water manager could be used to formalize a set
+ of short-term contracts that represent the resulting prioritized
+ water allocation strategy over the operating period for which the
+ forecast was issued. These contracts can be used to allocate water
+ each year/season beyond long-term contracts that may have precedence.
+ Thus, integrated supply and demand management can be achieved. In
+ this paper, a single period multiuser optimization model that can
+ support such an allocation process is presented. The application
+ of this conceptual model is explored using data for the Jaguaribe
+ Metropolitan Hydro System in Ceara, Brazil. The performance relative
+ to the current allocation process is assessed in the context of whether
+ such a model could support the proposed short-term contract based
+ participatory process. A synthetic forecasting example is also used
+ to explore the relative roles of forecast skill and reservoir storage
+ in this framework},
+ doi = {10.1029/2009WR007821},
+ keywords = {water contracts, drought management, reservoir rule curves, probabilistic
+ forecasts},
+ tags = {Multimodel - Ensambles, Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{sankarasubramanian+al2001,
+ author = {Sankarasubramanian, A. and Vogel, R. and Limbrunner, J.},
+ title = {Climate elasticity of streamflow in the {U}nited {S}tates},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {37},
+ pages = {1771--1781},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {Precipitation elasticity of streamflow, ? P , provides a measure of
+ the sensitivity of streamflow to changes in rainfall. Watershed model-based
+ estimates of ? P are shown to be highly sensitive to model structure
+ and calibration error. A Monte Carlo experiment compares a nonparametric
+ estimator of ? P with various watershed model-based approaches. The
+ nonparametric estimator is found to have low bias and is as robust
+ as or more robust than alternate model-based approaches. The nonparametric
+ estimator is used to construct a map of ? P for the United States.
+ Comparisons with 10 detailed climate change studies reveal that the
+ contour map of ? P introduced here provides a validation metric for
+ past and future climate change investigations in the United States.
+ Further investigations reveal that ? P tends to be low for basins
+ with significant snow accumulation and for basins whose moisture
+ and energy inputs are seasonally in phase with one another. The Budyko
+ hypothesis can only explain variations in ? P for very humid basins.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2000WR900330},
+ tags = {Rainfall, conceptual model}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{santhi+al2001,
+ author = {Santhi, C. and Arnold, J. and Williams, J. and Dugas, W. and Srinivasan,
+ R. and Hauck, L.},
+ title = {Validation of the swat model on a large river basin with point and
+ nonpoint sources},
+ journal = {Journal of the American Water Resources Association},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {37},
+ pages = {1169--1188},
+ abstract = {The State of Texas has initiated the development of a Total Maximum
+ Daily Load program in the Bosque River Watershed, where point and
+ nonpoint sources of pollution are a concern. Soil Water Assessment
+ Tool (SWAT) was validated for flow, sediment, and nutrients in the
+ watershed to evaluate alternative management scenarios and estimate
+ their effects in controlling pollution. This paper discusses the
+ calibration and validation at two locations, Hico and Valley Mills,
+ along the North Bosque River. Calibration for flow was performed
+ from 1960 through 1998. Sediment and nutrient calibration was done
+ from 1993 through 1997 at Hico and from 1996 through 1997 at Valley
+ Mills. Model validation was performed for 1998. Time series plots
+ and statistical measures were used to verify model predictions. Predicted
+ values generally matched well with the observed values during calibration
+ and validation (R-2 greater than or equal to 0.6 and Nash-Suttcliffe
+ Efficiency greater than or equal to 0.5, in most instances) except
+ for some underprediction of nitrogen during calibration at both locations
+ and sediment and organic nutrients during validation at Valley Mills.
+ This study showed that SWAT was able to predict flow, sediment, and
+ nutrients successfully and can be used to study the effects of alternative
+ management scenarios.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1752-1688.2001.tb03630.x},
+ keywords = {watershed management, total maximum daily load, erosion, sedimentation,
+ phosphorus loading, dairy manure management, BALANCE, QUALITY, FLOW},
+ tags = {SWAT}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{santhi+al2008,
+ author = {Santhi, C. and Kannan, N. and Arnold, J. and {Di Luzio}, M.},
+ title = {Spatial calibration and temporal validation of flow for regional
+ scale hydrologic modeling},
+ journal = {JAWRA Journal Of The American Water Resources Association},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {44},
+ pages = {829--846},
+ abstract = {The USDA-NRCS Resource Inventory Assessment Division provided funding
+ for this work as part of the Conservation Effects Assessment Project
+ (CEAP). Thanks to the editor and the anonymous reviewers for their
+ constructive comments. The Agricultural Policy/Environmental extender
+ (APEX) modeling team's contribution is acknowledged.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00207.x},
+ keywords = {spatially distributed calibration, validation, hydrologic modeling,
+ regional scale, HUMUS, SWAT, CEAP, CONTERMINOUS UNITED-STATES, MISSISSIPPI
+ RIVER-BASIN, SWAT, PRECIPITATION, TEMPERATURE, CLIMATE},
+ tags = {SWAT, Calibration},
+ url = {http://ddr.nal.usda.gov/dspace/bitstream/10113/18990/1/IND44097230.pdf}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{santos2010,
+ author = {Santos, J. and {Pulido-Calvo}, I. and Portela, M.},
+ title = {Spatial and temporal variability of droughts in {P}ortugal},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {46},
+ pages = {W03503},
+ abstract = {An analysis of droughts in mainland Portugal based on monthly precipitation
+ data, from September 1910 to October 2004, in 144 rain gages distributed
+ uniformly over the country is presented. The drought events were
+ characterized by means of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
+ applied to different time scales (1, 6, and 12 consecutive months
+ and 6 months from April to September and 12 months from October to
+ September). To assess spatial and temporal patterns of droughts,
+ a principal component analysis (PCA) and K-means clustering (KMC)
+ were applied to the SPI series. In this way, three different and
+ spatially well-defined regions with different temporal evolution
+ of droughts were identified (north, central, and south regions of
+ Portugal). A spectral analysis of the SPI patterns obtained with
+ principal component analysis and clusters analysis, using the fast
+ Fourier transform algorithm (FFT), showed that there is a manifest
+ 3.6-year cycle in the SPI pattern in the south of Portugal and evident
+ 2.4-year and 13.4-year cycles in the north of Portugal. The observation
+ of the drought periods supports the occurrence of more frequent cycles
+ of dry events in the south (droughts from moderate to extreme approximately
+ every 3.6 years) than in the north (droughts from severe to extreme
+ approximately every 13.4 years). These results suggest a much stronger
+ immediate influence of the NAO in the south than in the north of
+ Portugal, although these relations remain a challenging task.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2009WR008071},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.03.08}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{schar+al2004,
+ author = {Sch\"ar, C. and Vidale, P. and Luthi, D. and Frei, C. and Haberli,
+ C. and Liniger, M. and Appenzeller, C.},
+ title = {{The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer
+ heatwaves}},
+ journal = {Nature},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {427},
+ pages = {332--336},
+ number = {6972},
+ doi = {10.1038/nature02300},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.06.26}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{schaefligupta2007,
+ author = {Schaefli, B. and Gupta, H.},
+ title = {Do {N}ash values have value?},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {21},
+ pages = {2075--2080},
+ number = {15},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.6825},
+ mzbnote = {Benchmark Efficiency (BE), scaling the rainfall to match the mean
+ discharge and to shift the sequence in time by some optimum lag.},
+ tags = {Goodness-of-Fit, Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{schaefli+al2005,
+ author = {Schaefli, B. and Hingray, B. and Niggli, M. and Musy, A.},
+ title = {A conceptual glacio-hydrological model for high mountainous catchments},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {9},
+ pages = {95--109},
+ abstract = {In high mountainous catchments, the spatial precipitation and therefore
+ the overall water balance is generally difficult to estimate. The
+ present paper describes the structure and calibration of a semi-lumped
+ conceptual glacio-hydrological model for the joint simulation of
+ daily discharge and annual glacier mass balance that represents a
+ better integrator of the water balance. The model has been developed
+ for climate change impact studies and has therefore a parsimonious
+ structure; it requires three input times series - precipitation,
+ temperature and potential evapotranspiration - and has 7 parameters
+ to calibrate. A multi-signal approach considering daily discharge
+ and - if available - annual glacier mass balance has been developed
+ for the calibration of these parameters. The model has been calibrated
+ for three different catchments in the Swiss Alps having glaciation
+ rates between 37\% and 52\%. It simulates well the observed daily
+ discharge, the hydrological regime and some basic glaciological features,
+ such as the annual mass balance.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-9-95-2005},
+ keywords = {EQUILIBRIUM-LINE ALTITUDES, CLIMATE-CHANGE, MASS-BALANCE, HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
+ MODEL, RUNOFF MODEL, SNOW, GLACIERS, RIVER, ICE, HYDROLOGY},
+ tags = {Snow, conceptual model}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{scheerlinck+al2009,
+ author = {Scheerlinck, K. and Pauwels, V. and Vernieuwe, H. and {De Baets},
+ B.},
+ title = {Calibration of a water and energy balance model: Recursive parameter
+ estimation versus particle swarm optimization},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {45},
+ pages = {1--22},
+ number = {10},
+ abstract = {It is well known that one of the major problems in the application
+ of land surface models is the determination of the various model
+ parameters. In most cases, only one or a limited number of variables
+ are used to estimate these parameters. This study evaluates the use
+ of two fundamentally different global optimization methods, multistart
+ weight-adaptive recursive parameter estimation (MWARPE) and particle
+ swarm optimization (PSO), for the estimation of hydrologic model
+ parameters on the basis of data for multiple variables. MWARPE iteratively
+ uses the linear recursive filter equations in a Monte Carlo setting
+ and therefore does not rely on the explicit minimization of an objective
+ function. However, a major drawback of the MWARPE method is the high
+ dimensionality, determined by the number of observations, of the
+ matrix to be inverted. On the other hand, PSO is a stochastic optimization
+ method based on the collective strength of a population of individuals
+ with flocking or herding behavior, as observed in a wide number of
+ biological systems. In situ observations of net radiation; latent,
+ sensible, and ground heat fluxes; and the soil moisture profile are
+ used to determine the parameters of a simplified water and energy
+ balance model. Both optimization methods are analyzed in terms of
+ model performance and computational efficiency. Comparable results,
+ expressed in terms of the root mean square error values, were obtained
+ for both methods. However, it was found that MWARPE tends to slightly
+ overfit the data. },
+ doi = {10.1029/2009WR008051},
+ tags = {PSO, Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{schertzer+al2010,
+ author = {Schertzer, D. and Tchiguirinskaia, I. and Lovejoy, S. and Hubert,
+ P.},
+ title = {No monsters, no miracles: in nonlinear sciences hydrology is not
+ an outlier!},
+ journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {55},
+ pages = {965--979},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {The end users of hydrological models may be justified for being tired
+ of the excessive uncertainty of these models, not to mention their
+ simplistic approximations and crude modelling. The ever-increasing
+ sophistication of model parameter fitting is simply a smoke-screen
+ that hides the models' lack of physical basis, their scale dependence,
+ and their inability to fit widely diverse behaviours. More generally,
+ we have to admit a lack of qualitative improvement in hydrological
+ modelling in recent times. In fact, operational hydrology may have
+ suffered for some time from ignoring the advances in theoretical
+ hydrology, which have, in contrast, greatly stimulated the nonlinear
+ sciences. For instance, more than a century ago fractals were considered
+ as geometrical monsters, whereas decades ago river networks became
+ classical fractal objects, and rainfall and discharges are now classical
+ examples of multifractal fields. These hydrological characteristics
+ are still often ignored by operational hydrology, whereas they explain
+ not only its current limitations, but also how to overcome them.
+ To illustrate these problems, this paper focuses on the fact that
+ hydrological fields are most likely singular with respect to measures
+ of time and volume. This would not only explain the ubiquitous scale
+ dependence of hydrological observations, but would also give the
+ possibility to transform them into scale-independent quantities.
+ The upscaling of a rainfall time series from an hour to a year is
+ therefore discussed in detail, and enables us to quickly introduce
+ other examples. },
+ doi = {10.1080/02626667.2010.505173},
+ keywords = {scales, measure, singularities, balance equation, fractals, multifractals
+ },
+ tags = {Calibration, Philosophical, Outliers}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{schmidli+al2006,
+ author = {Schmidli, J. and Frei, C. and Vidale, P.},
+ title = {Downscaling from {GCM} precipitation: {A} benchmark for dynamical
+ and statistical downscaling methods},
+ journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {26},
+ pages = {679--689},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {A precipitation downscaling method is presented using precipitation
+ from a general circulation model (GCM) as predictor. The method extends
+ a previous method from monthly to daily temporal resolution. The
+ simplest form of the method corrects for biases in wet-day frequency
+ and intensity. A more sophisticated variant also takes account of
+ flow-dependent biases in the GCM. The method is flexible and simple
+ to implement. It is proposed here as a correction of GCM output for
+ applications where sophisticated methods are not available, or as
+ a benchmark for the evaluation of other downscaling methods. Applied
+ to output from reanalyses (ECMWF, NCEP) in the region of the European
+ Alps, the method is capable of reducing large biases in the precipitation
+ frequency distribution, even for high quantiles. The two variants
+ exhibit similar performances, but the ideal choice of method can
+ depend on the GCM/reanalysis and it is recommended to test the methods
+ in each case. Limitations of the method are found in small areas
+ with unresolved topographic detail that influence higher-order statistics
+ (e.g. high quantiles). When used as benchmark for three regional
+ climate models (RCMs), the corrected reanalysis and the RCMs perform
+ similarly in many regions, but the added value of the latter is evident
+ for high quantiles in some small regions},
+ doi = {10.1002/joc.1287},
+ keywords = {statistical downscaling, European alps, precipitation statistics,
+ regional climate model, reanalysis},
+ tags = {Downscaling}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{schmidli+al2007,
+ author = {Schmidli, J. and Goodess, C. and Frei, C. and Haylock, M. and Hundecha,
+ Y. and Ribalaygua, J. and Schmith, T.},
+ title = {Statistical and dynamical downscaling of precipitation: {A}n evaluation
+ and comparison of scenarios for the {E}uropean {A}lps},
+ journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {112},
+ pages = {D04105},
+ number = {D4},
+ abstract = {This paper compares six statistical downscaling models (SDMs) and
+ three regional climate models (RCMs) in their ability to downscale
+ daily precipitation statistics in a region of complex topography.
+ The six SDMs include regression methods, weather typing methods,
+ a conditional weather generator, and a bias correction and spatial
+ disaggregation approach. The comparison is carried out over the European
+ Alps for current and future (2071--2100) climate. The evaluation
+ of simulated precipitation for the current climate shows that the
+ SDMs and RCMs tend to have similar biases but that they differ with
+ respect to interannual variations. The SDMs strongly underestimate
+ the magnitude of the year-to-year variations. Clear differences emerge
+ also with respect to the year-to-year anomaly correlation skill:
+ In winter, over complex terrain, the better RCMs achieve significantly
+ higher skills than the SDMs. Over flat terrain and in summer, the
+ differences are smaller. Scenario results using A2 emissions show
+ that in winter mean precipitation tends to increase north of about
+ 45°N and insignificant or opposite changes are found to the south.
+ There is good agreement between the downscaling models for most precipitation
+ statistics. In summer, there is still good qualitative agreement
+ between the RCMs but large differences between the SDMs and between
+ the SDMs and the RCMs. According to the RCMs, there is a strong trend
+ toward drier conditions including longer periods of drought. The
+ SDMs, on the other hand, show mostly nonsignificant or even opposite
+ changes. Overall, the present analysis suggests that downscaling
+ does significantly contribute to the uncertainty in regional climate
+ scenarios, especially for the summer precipitation climate},
+ doi = {10.1029/2005JD007026},
+ tags = {Downscaling}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{schneider2002,
+ author = {Schneider, S.},
+ title = {Can we estimate the likelihood of climatic changes at 2100?},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {52},
+ pages = {441--451},
+ number = {4},
+ doi = {10.1023/A:1014276210717},
+ keywords = {SRES, scenarios, equally plausible, equally sound, uncertainty cascade},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, Scenarios}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{schoofpryor2001,
+ author = {Schoof, J. and Pryor, S.},
+ title = {Downscaling temperature and precipitation: {A} comparison of regression--based
+ methods and artificial neural networks},
+ journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {21},
+ pages = {773--790},
+ number = {7},
+ abstract = {A comparison of two statistical downscaling methods for daily maximum
+ and minimum surface air temperature, total daily precipitation and
+ total monthly precipitation at Indianapolis, IN, USA, is presented.
+ The analysis is conducted for two seasons, the growing season and
+ the non-growing season, defined based on variability of surface air
+ temperature. The predictors used in the downscaling are indices of
+ the synoptic scale circulation derived from rotated principal components
+ analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis of variables extracted from an
+ 18-year record from seven rawinsonde stations in the Midwest region
+ of the United States. PCA yielded seven significant components for
+ the growing season and five significant components for the non-growing
+ season. These PCs explained 86% and 83% of the original rawinsonde
+ data for the growing and non-growing seasons, respectively. Cluster
+ analysis of the PC scores using the average linkage method resulted
+ in eight growing season synoptic types and twelve non-growing synoptic
+ types. The downscaling of temperature and precipitation is conducted
+ using PC scores and cluster frequencies in regression models and
+ artificial neural networks (ANNs). Regression models and ANNs yielded
+ similar results, but the data for each regression model violated
+ at least one of the assumptions of regression analysis. As expected,
+ the accuracy of the downscaling models for temperature was superior
+ to that for precipitation. The accuracy of all temperature models
+ was improved by adding an autoregressive term, which also changed
+ the relative importance of the dominant anomaly patterns as manifest
+ in the PC scores. Application of the transfer functions to model
+ daily maximum and minimum temperature data from an independent time
+ series resulted in correlation coefficients of 0.34-0.89. In accord
+ with previous studies, the precipitation models exhibited lesser
+ predictive capabilities. The correlation coefficient for predicted
+ versus observed daily precipitation totals was less than 0.5 for
+ both seasons, while that for monthly total precipitation was below
+ 0.65. The downscaling techniques are discussed in terms of model
+ performance, comparison of techniques and possible model improvements},
+ doi = {10.1002/joc.655},
+ tags = {Downscaling}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{schoups+al2008,
+ author = {Schoups, G. and {van de Giesen}, N. and Savenije, H.},
+ title = {Model Complexity Control for Hydrologic Prediction},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {44},
+ pages = { W00B03},
+ note = {They conclude (end of Section 3) that temporally variable model parameters,
+ by season or by event, result in increasingly better fits to the
+ data, as shown by Re values in Table 3. However, models with time-variable
+ parameters exhibit parameter non-uniqueness and equifinality,},
+ abstract = {A common concern in hydrologic modeling is over-parameterization of
+ complex models given limited and noisy data. This leads to problems
+ of parameter non-uniqueness and equifinality, which may negatively
+ affect prediction uncertainties. A systematic way of controlling
+ model complexity is therefore needed. We compare three model complexitycontrol
+ methods for hydrologic prediction, namely Cross-Validation (CV),
+ Akaike{'}s Information Criterion (AIC), and Structural Risk Minimization
+ (SRM). Results show that simulation of water flow using non-physically
+ based models (polynomials in this case) leads to increasingly better
+ calibration fits as the model complexity (polynomial order)increases.
+ However, prediction uncertainty worsens for complex non-physically
+ based models due to over-fitting of noisy data. Incorporation of
+ physically based constraints into the model (e.g. storage-discharge
+ relationship) effectively bounds prediction uncertainty, even as
+ the number of parameters increases. The conclusion is that overparameterization
+ and equifinality do not lead to a continued increase in prediction
+ uncertainty, as long as models are constrained by such physical principles.
+ Complexity control of hydrologic models reduces parameter equifinality
+ and identifies the simplestmodel that adequately explains the data,
+ thereby providing a means of hydrologic generalization and classification.
+ SRM is a promising technique for this purpose, as it (i) provides
+ analytic upper bounds on prediction uncertainty, hence avoiding the
+ computational burden of CV, and (ii) extends the applicability of
+ classic methods such asAIC to finite data. The main hurdle in applying
+ SRM is the need for an a priori estimation of the complexity of the
+ hydrologic model, as measured by its Vapnik-Chernovenkis (VC) dimension.
+ Further research is needed in this area.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2008WR006836},
+ organization = {Department of Water Management, Delft University of Technology},
+ tags = {Applications}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{schoups+al2005,
+ author = {Schoups, G. and Hopmans, J. and Young, C. and Vrugt, J. and Wallender,
+ W.},
+ title = {Multi-criteria optimization of a regional spatially-distributed subsurface
+ water flow model},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {311},
+ pages = {20--48},
+ number = {1-4},
+ abstract = {This paper presents the multi-criteria calibration of a regional distributed
+ subsurface water flow model for a 1400 km2 irrigated agricultural
+ area in the western San Joaquin Valley of California. Two global
+ optimization algorithms were used to identify model parameters using
+ data on spatially distributed local water table depth measurements,
+ district-average groundwater pumping and district-average subsurface
+ drainage data. Model parameters that were subjected to calibration
+ included irrigation efficiency, effective drain depth and conductance,
+ crop evapotranspiration correction coefficient, saturated hydraulic
+ conductivity and specific yield values of coarse and fine fractions,
+ and saturated hydraulic conductivity values defining water fluxes
+ across domain boundaries. Using the single-objective function approach,
+ the three measurement types were weighted into a single-objective
+ function for global optimization purposes. Additionally, a three-objective
+ multi-criteria optimization problem was formulated in which no prior
+ weighting of the individual objectives was specified. The single-objective
+ optimization approach resulted in identifiable parameters with relatively
+ small uncertainties, however, most likely values for various optimized
+ parameter approached the outer bounds of their physical-realistic
+ ranges. The normalized weighting of the single-objective function
+ approach emphasized the pumping and drainage data more than the water
+ table depth data. In the multi-objective approach, the objective
+ function of each measurement type was treated independently, so that
+ no subjective preferences were assigned a priori. Within a single
+ optimization run, a Pareto set of solutions was generated, which
+ included the optimal results for each end-member of each of the three
+ objective functions. The results showed a moderate trade-off between
+ pumping and water table predictions, and a slight independence of
+ drainage predictions from the other two measurements. The estimated
+ Pareto set exhibited large parameter uncertainty, indicating possible
+ model structural inadequacies. We further show that the magnitude
+ of prediction uncertainties associated with the Pareto parameter
+ uncertainty is large for making water table predictions, but much
+ smaller for drainage and pumping predictions. Trade-offs between
+ fitting shallow and deep water tables were revealed by considering
+ additional performance criteria for model evaluation, namely BIAS
+ and RMSE values for six water table depth groups. These results point
+ to possible model improvements by spatially distributing some of
+ the model parameters.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.01.001},
+ keywords = {Vadose zone hydrology, Salinity, Drainage, Irrigation efficiency,
+ Measurement error},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{schuol2006,
+ author = {Schuol, J. and Abbaspour, K.},
+ title = {Calibration and uncertainty issues of a hydrological model (SWAT)
+ applied to West Africa},
+ journal = {Advances in Geosciences},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {9},
+ pages = {137--143},
+ number = {9},
+ doi = {10.5194/adgeo-9-137-2006},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, SWAT}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{schuol+al2008a,
+ author = {Schuol, J. and Abbaspour, K. and Srinivasan, R. and Yang, H.},
+ title = {Estimation of freshwater availability in the {W}est {A}frican sub-continent
+ using the {SWAT} hydrologic model},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {352},
+ pages = {30},
+ number = {1-2},
+ abstract = {Accurate knowledge of freshwater availability is indispensable for
+ water resources management at regional or national level. This information,
+ however, has historically been very difficult to obtain because of
+ lack of data, difficulties in the aggregation of spatial information,
+ and problems in the quantification of distributed hydrological processes.
+ The currently available estimates of freshwater availability by a
+ few large international organizations such as FAO and UNESCO are
+ often not sufficient as they only provide aggregated rough quantities
+ of river discharge and groundwater recharge (blue water) at a national
+ level and on a yearly basis. This paper aims to provide a procedure
+ to improve the estimations of freshwater availability at subbasin
+ level and monthly intervals. Applying the distributed hydrological
+ model {``}Soil and Water Assessment Tool{''} (SWAT), the freshwater
+ availability is quantified for a 4-million km2 area covering some
+ 18 countries in West Africa. The procedure includes model calibration
+ and validation based on measured river discharges, and quantification
+ of the uncertainty in model outputs using {``}Sequential Uncertainty
+ Fitting Algorithm{''} (SUFI-2) The aggregated results for 11 countries
+ are compared with two other studies. It was seen that for most countries,
+ the estimates from the other two studies fall within our calculated
+ prediction uncertainty ranges. The uncertainties are, in general,
+ within reasonable ranges but larger in subbasins containing features
+ such as dams and wetlands, or subbasins with inadequate climate or
+ landuse information. As the modelling procedure in this study proved
+ quite successful, its application for quantification of freshwater
+ availability at a global scale is already underway. There are, however,
+ two limitations in the West African model: (1) not all the components
+ of the water balance model such as soil moisture or deep aquifer
+ recharge could be directly calibrated because of lack of data and
+ (2) the full capabilities of the SWAT model could not be realized
+ because of the lack of local water and agricultural management information},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.12.025},
+ keywords = {SWAT, Blue water, Green water, Prediction uncertainty, SUFI-2, dGen},
+ tags = {SWAT, Uncertainty, Applications}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{schwartz1978,
+ author = {Schwartz, G.},
+ title = {Estimating the dimension of a model},
+ journal = {Annals of Statistics},
+ year = {1978},
+ volume = {6},
+ pages = {461--464},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {The problem of selecting one of a number of models of different dimensions
+ is treated by finding its Bayes solution, and evaluating the leading
+ terms of its asymptotic expansion. These terms are a valid large-sample
+ criterion beyond the Bayesian context, since they do not depend on
+ the a priori distribution.},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ refid = {SCHWARTZ1978},
+ timestamp = {2008.11.04},
+ url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2958889}
+}
+
+@BOOK{schwartz1996,
+ title = {The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain
+ World},
+ publisher = {Currency Doubleday},
+ year = {1996},
+ author = {Schwartz, P.},
+ tags = {Scenarios}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{sefton1997,
+ author = {Sefton, C. and Boorman, D.},
+ title = {A regional investigation of climate change impacts on {UK} streamflows},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {1997},
+ volume = {195},
+ pages = {26--44},
+ number = {1--4},
+ abstract = {A framework has been developed that enables the estimation of climate
+ change impacts on flow regimes of catchments in England and Wales.
+ Within this framework, rainfall-runoff processes are represented
+ by a unit hydrograph-based model that was calibrated against historical
+ data from 39 catchments. Rainfall and temperature inputs were perturbed
+ according to an equilibrium climate change scenario. Three study
+ catchments, of widely differing flow regime, are presented as examples
+ of the versatility of the model, and to illustrate variations in
+ catchment response under the modified climate. Results, quantified
+ by percentage change in low, mean and flood flows, were interpolated
+ spatially to provide a regional picture of hydrological response.
+ Catchments in central and eastern England suffer the most severe
+ reductions in low flows whilst flooding is seen to increase in the
+ north and west. The linking of model parameters to physical landscape
+ characteristics allows estimation of flows, both historical and climate-changed,
+ at ungauged sites. Since these characteristics include land use indices,
+ it is possible to quantify second-order effects resulting from changes
+ in land use.},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0022-1694(96)03257-X},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.08.05}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{seibert2001,
+ author = {Seibert, J.},
+ title = {On the need for benchmarks in hydrological modelling},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {15},
+ pages = {1063--1064},
+ number = {6},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.446},
+ mzbnote = {What is "acceptable accurracy" ?},
+ tags = {Calibration, Goodness-of-Fit}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{seibert1997,
+ author = {Seibert, J.},
+ title = {Estimation of parameter uncertainty in the HBV model},
+ journal = {Nordic Hydrology},
+ year = {1997},
+ volume = {28},
+ pages = {247--262},
+ number = {4--5},
+ doi = {10.2166/nh.1997.015},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.10.10}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{seibertmcdonnell2002,
+ author = {Seibert, J. and McDonnell, J.},
+ title = {On the dialog between experimentalist and modeler in catchment hydrology:
+ {U}se of soft data for multicriteria model calibration},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {38},
+ pages = {1241},
+ number = {11},
+ abstract = { The dialog between experimentalist and modeler in catchment hydrology
+ has been minimal to date. The experimentalist often has a highly
+ detailed yet highly qualitative understanding of dominant runoff
+ processes; thus there is often much more information content on the
+ catchment than we use for calibration of a model. While modelers
+ often appreciate the need for {``}hard data{''} for the model calibration
+ process, there has been little thought given to how modelers might
+ access this {``}soft{''} or process knowledge. We present a new method
+ where soft data (i.e., qualitative knowledge from the experimentalist
+ that cannot be used directly as exact numbers) are made useful through
+ fuzzy measures of model simulation and parameter value acceptability.
+ We developed a three-box lumped conceptual model for the Maimai catchment
+ in New Zealand, a particularly well-studied process-hydrological
+ research catchment. The boxes represent the key hydrological reservoirs
+ that are known to have distinct groundwater dynamics, isotopic composition,
+ and solute chemistry. The model was calibrated against hard data
+ (runoff and groundwater levels) as well as a number of criteria derived
+ from the soft data (e.g., percent new water, reservoir volume, etc.).
+ We achieved very good fits for the three-box model when optimizing
+ the parameter values with only runoff (Reff = 0.93). However, parameter
+ sets obtained in this way showed in general a poor goodness of fit
+ for other criteria such as the simulated new water contributions
+ to peak runoff. Inclusion of soft data criteria in the model calibration
+ process resulted in lower Reff values (around 0.84 when including
+ all criteria) but led to better overall performance, as interpreted
+ by the experimentalist{'}s view of catchment runoff dynamics. The
+ model performance with respect to soft data (like, for instance,
+ the new water ratio) increased significantly, and parameter uncertainty
+ was reduced by 60\% on average with the introduction of the soft
+ data multicriteria calibration. We argue that accepting lower model
+ efficiencies for runoff is {``}worth it{''} if one can develop a
+ more {``}real{''} model of catchment behavior. The use of soft data
+ is an approach to formalize this exchange between experimentalist
+ and modeler and to more fully utilize the information content from
+ experimental catchments.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2001WR000978},
+ keywords = {multicriteria calibration, conceptual catchment modeling, hillslope
+ hydrology, qualitative knowledge, soft data, HUMID HEADWATER CATCHMENTS,
+ STORM RUNOFF GENERATION, PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY, NEW-ZEALAND, HBV
+ MODEL, HILLSLOPE, SCALE, WATER, EQUIFINALITY, METHODOLOGY},
+ tags = {Philosophical}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{seifert2008,
+ author = {Seifert, D. and Sonnenberg, T. and Scharling, P. and Hinsby, K.},
+ title = {Use of alternative conceptual models to assess the impact of a buried
+ valley on groundwater vulnerability},
+ journal = {Hydrogeology Journal},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {16},
+ pages = {659--674},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {A buried valley incised into a sequence of pre-Quaternary sediments
+ is shown to seriously affect the vulnerability of groundwater. Often
+ the existence of buried valleys is not known or is not described
+ explicitly in a hydrogeological model. In the present study, two
+ numerical groundwater models, representing two alternative conceptual
+ models, were produced to help quantify the effect of the valley on
+ groundwater vulnerability. One model included the buried valley and
+ the other did not. Both models were subjected to calibration and
+ were found to describe hydraulic head and river discharge equally
+ well. Even though the two models showed similar calibration statistics;
+ fluxes, travel paths and travel times were affected by the inclusion
+ of the buried valley. The recharge area and the groundwater age of
+ potential abstraction wells placed in the pre-Quaternary deep aquifers
+ surrounding the buried valley were different for the two models,
+ with significantly higher vulnerability when the valley was included
+ in the model. Based on the results of the present study, it is concluded
+ that a buried valley may not always be detectable when calibrating
+ a wrong conceptual model. If reliable results should be obtained
+ a good geological model has to be constructed.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10040-007-0252-3},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.24}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{selroos2002,
+ author = {Selroos, {J-O}. and Walker, D. and Str{\"o}m, A. and Gylling, B.
+ and Follin, S.},
+ title = {Comparison of alternative modelling approaches for groundwater flow
+ in fractured rock},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {257},
+ pages = {174--188},
+ number = {1--4},
+ abstract = {In performance assessment studies of radioactive waste disposal in
+ crystalline rocks, one source of uncertainty is the appropriateness
+ of conceptual models of the physical processes contributing to the
+ potential transport of radionuclides. The Alternative Models Project
+ (AMP) evaluates the uncertainty of models of groundwater flow, an
+ uncertainty that arises from alternative conceptualisations of groundwater
+ movement in fractured media. The AMP considers three modelling approaches
+ for simulating flow and advective transport from the waste canisters
+ to the biosphere: Stochastic Continuum, Discrete Fracture Network,
+ and Channel Network. Each approach addresses spatial variability
+ via Monte Carlo simulation, whose realisations are summarised by
+ the statistics of three simplified measures of geosphere performance:
+ travel time, transport resistance (a function of travel distance,
+ flow-wetted surface per volume of rock, and Darcy velocity along
+ a flowpath), and canister flux (Darcy velocity at repository depth).
+ The AMP uses a common reference case defined by a specific model
+ domain, boundary conditions, and layout of a hypothetical repository,
+ with a consistent set of summary statistics to facilitate the comparison
+ of the three approaches. The three modelling approaches predict similar
+ median travel times and median canister fluxes, but dissimilar variability.
+ The three modelling approaches also predict similar values for minimum
+ travel time and maximum canister flux, and predict similar locations
+ for particles exiting the geosphere. The results suggest that the
+ problem specifications (i.e. boundary conditions and gross hydrogeology)
+ constrain the flow modelling, limiting the impact of this conceptual
+ uncertainty on performance assessment.},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00551-0},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@INBOOK{SREX2012,
+ author = {Seneviratne, S. and Nicholls, N. and Easterling, D. and Goodess,
+ C. and Kanae, S. and Kossin, J. and Luo, Y. and Marengo, J. and {McInnes},
+ K. and Rahimi, M. and Reichstein, M. and Sorteberg, A. and Vera,
+ C. and Zhang, X.},
+ editor = {Field, C. and Barros, V. and Stocker, T. and Qin, D. and Dokken,
+ D. and Ebi, K. and Mastrandrea, M. and Mach, K. and Plattner, G.
+ and Allen, S. and Tignor, M. and Midgley, P.},
+ title = {{A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of th eIntergovernmental
+ Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)}},
+ chapter = {Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical
+ environment. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters
+ to Advance Climate Change Adaptation},
+ pages = {109--230},
+ year = {2012},
+ publisher = {{Cambridge University Press}},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.05.16}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{setegn+al2009,
+ author = {Setegn, S. and Srinivasan, R. and Melesse, A. and Dargahi, B.},
+ title = {{SWAT} model application and prediction uncertainty analysis in the
+ {L}ake {T}ana {B}asin, {E}thiopia},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {4},
+ pages = {357--367},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {Lake Tana Basin is of significant importance to Ethiopia concerning
+ water resources aspects and the ecological balance of the area. Many
+ years of mismanagement, wetland losses due to urban encroachment
+ and population growth, and droughts are causing its rapid deterioration.
+ The main objective of this study was to assess the performance and
+ applicability of the soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model for
+ prediction of streamflow in the Lake Tana Basin, so that the influence
+ of topography, land use, soil and climatic condition on the hydrology
+ of Lake Tana Basin can be well examined. The physically based SWAT
+ model was calibrated and validated for four tributaries of Lake Tana.
+ Sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI-2), parameter solution (ParaSol)
+ and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) calibration
+ and uncertainty analysis methods were compared and used for the set-up
+ of the SWAT model. The model evaluation statistics for streamflows
+ prediction shows that there is a good agreement between the measured
+ and simulated flows that was verified by coefficients of determination
+ and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency greater than 0{$\cdot$}5. The hydrological
+ water balance analysis of the basin indicated that baseflow is an
+ important component of the total discharge within the study area
+ that contributes more than the surface runoff. More than 60\% of
+ losses in the watershed are through evapotranspiration},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.7457},
+ keywords = {SWAT, Lake Tana, hydrological modelling, SUFI-2, GLUE, ParaSol},
+ tags = {SWAT, Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{shabalova+al2003,
+ author = {Shabalova, M. and {van Deursen}, W. and Buishand, T.},
+ title = {Assessing future discharge of the river {R}hine using regional climate
+ model integrations and a hydrological model},
+ journal = {Climate Research},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {23},
+ pages = {233--246},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {Climate change scenarios based on integrations of the Hadley Centre
+ regional climate model HadRM2 are used to determine the change in
+ the flow regime of the river Rhine by the end of the 21st century.
+ Two scenarios are formulated: Scenario 1 accounting for the temperature
+ increase (4.8°C on average over the basin) and changes in the mean
+ precipitation, and Scenario 2 accounting additionally for changes
+ in the temperature variance and an increase in the relative variability
+ of precipitation. These scenarios are used as input into the RhineFlow
+ hydrological model, a distributed water balance model of the Rhine
+ basin that simulates river flow, soil moisture, snow pack and groundwater
+ storage with a 10 d time step. Both scenarios result in higher mean
+ discharges of the Rhine in winter (approx. +30%), but lower mean
+ discharges in summer (approx. -30%), particularly in August (approx.
+ -50%). RhineFlow simulations also indicate that the variability of
+ the 10 d discharges increases significantly, even if the variability
+ of the climatic inputs remains unchanged. The annual maximum discharge
+ increases in magnitude throughout the Rhine and tends to occur more
+ frequently in winter, thus suggesting an increasing risk of winter
+ floods. This is especially pronounced in Scenario 2. At the Netherlands-German
+ border, the magnitude of the 20 yr maximum discharge event increases
+ by 14% in Scenario 1 and by 29% in Scenario 2; the present-day 20
+ yr event tends to reappear every 5 yr in Scenario 1 and every 3 yr
+ in Scenario 2. The frequency of occurrence of low and very low flows
+ increases, in both scenarios alike.},
+ doi = {10.3354/cr023233},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.07.29}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{shannon1948,
+ author = {Shannon, C.},
+ title = {A mathematical theory of communication},
+ journal = {Bell System Technical Journal},
+ year = {1948},
+ volume = {27},
+ pages = {623--656},
+ number = {279--423},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23},
+ url = {10.1145/584091.584093}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{sheffieldwood2008,
+ author = {Sheffield, Justin and Wood, Eric},
+ title = {Projected changes in drought occurrence under future global warming
+ from multi-model, multi-scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations},
+ journal = {Climate Dynamics},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {31},
+ pages = {79--105},
+ abstract = {Recent and potential future increases in global temperatures are likely
+ to be associated with impacts on the hydrologic cycle, including
+ changes to precipitation and increases in extreme events such as
+ droughts. We analyze changes in drought occurrence using soil moisture
+ data for the SRES B1, A1B and A2 future climate scenarios relative
+ to the PICNTRL pre-industrial control and 20C3M twentieth century
+ simulations from eight AOGCMs that participated in the IPCC AR4.
+ Comparison with observation forced land surface model estimates indicates
+ that the models do reasonably well at replicating our best estimates
+ of twentieth century, large scale drought occurrence, although the
+ frequency of long-term (more than 12-month duration) droughts are
+ over-estimated. Under the future projections, the models show decreases
+ in soil moisture globally for all scenarios with a corresponding
+ doubling of the spatial extent of severe soil moisture deficits and
+ frequency of short-term (4–6-month duration) droughts from the mid-twentieth
+ century to the end of the twenty-first. Long-term droughts become
+ three times more common. Regionally, the Mediterranean, west African,
+ central Asian and central American regions show large increases most
+ notably for long-term frequencies as do mid-latitude North American
+ regions but with larger variation between scenarios. In general,
+ changes under the higher emission scenarios, A1B and A2 are the greatest,
+ and despite following a reduced emissions pathway relative to the
+ present day, the B1 scenario shows smaller but still substantial
+ increases in drought, globally and for most regions. Increases in
+ drought are driven primarily by reductions in precipitation with
+ increased evaporation from higher temperatures modulating the changes.
+ In some regions, increases in precipitation are offset by increased
+ evaporation. Although the predicted future changes in drought occurrence
+ are essentially monotonic increasing globally and in many regions,
+ they are generally not statistically different from contemporary
+ climate (as estimated from the 1961–1990 period of the 20C3M simulations)
+ or natural variability (as estimated from the PICNTRL simulations)
+ for multiple decades, in contrast to primary climate variables, such
+ as global mean surface air temperature and precipitation. On the
+ other hand, changes in annual and seasonal means of terrestrial hydrologic
+ variables, such as evaporation and soil moisture, are essentially
+ undetectable within the twenty-first century. Changes in the extremes
+ of climate and their hydrological impacts may therefore be more detectable
+ than changes in their means.},
+ affiliation = {Princeton University Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
+ Princeton NJ 08544 USA},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00382-007-0340-z},
+ issn = {0930-7575},
+ issue = {1},
+ keyword = {Earth and Environmental Science},
+ publisher = {Springer Berlin / Heidelberg}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{shen2008,
+ author = {Shen, Y. and Oki, T. and Utsumi, N. and Kanae, S. and Hanasaki, N.},
+ title = {Projection of future world water resources under {SRES} scenarios:
+ water withdrawal},
+ journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {53},
+ pages = {11--33},
+ number = {1},
+ month = {February},
+ doi = {10.1623/hysj.53.1.11},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.08.10}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{shi+al2008,
+ author = {Shi, X. and Wood, A. and Lettenmaier, D.},
+ title = {How Essential is Hydrologic Model Calibration to Seasonal Streamflow
+ Forecasting?},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {9},
+ pages = {1350--1363},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {Hydrologic model calibration is usually a central element of streamflow
+ forecasting based on the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) method.
+ Evaluation measures of forecast errors such as root-mean-square error
+ (RMSE) are heavily influenced by bias, which in turn is readily reduced
+ by calibration. On the other hand, bias can also be reduced by postprocessing
+ (e.g., {``}training{''} bias correction schemes based on retrospective
+ simulation error statistics). This observation invites the question:
+ How much is forecast error reduced by calibration, beyond what can
+ be accomplished by postprocessing to remove bias? The authors address
+ this question through retrospective evaluation of forecast errors
+ at eight streamflow forecast locations distributed across the western
+ United States. Forecast periods of length ranging from 1 to 6 months
+ are investigated, for forecasts initiated from 1 December to 1 June,
+ which span the period when most runoff occurs from snowmelt-dominated
+ western U.S. rivers. ESP forecast errors are evaluated both for uncalibrated
+ forecasts to which a percentile mapping bias correction approach
+ is applied, and for forecasts from an objectively calibrated model
+ without explicit bias correction. Using the coefficient of prediction
+ (Cp), which essentially is a measure of the fraction of variance
+ explained by the forecast, the authors find that the reduction in
+ forecast error as measured by Cp that is achieved by bias correction
+ alone is nearly as great as that resulting from hydrologic model
+ calibration..},
+ doi = {10.1175/2008JHM1001.1},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@INPROCEEDINGS{shieberhart1999,
+ author = {Shi, Y. and Eberhart, R.},
+ title = {Empirical study of particle swarm optimization},
+ booktitle = {Proceedings of the 1999 Congress on Evolutionary Computation-CEC99
+ (Cat. No. 99TH8406)},
+ year = {1999},
+ pages = {1945},
+ abstract = {We empirically study the performance of the particle swarm optimizer
+ (PSO). Four different benchmark functions with asymmetric initial
+ range settings are selected as testing functions. The experimental
+ results illustrate the advantages and disadvantages of the PSO. Under
+ all the testing cases, the PSO always converges very quickly towards
+ the optimal positions but may slow its convergence speed when it
+ is near a minimum. Nevertheless, the experimental results show that
+ the PSO is a promising optimization method and a new approach is
+ suggested to improve PSO's performance near the optima, such as using
+ an adaptive inertia weight},
+ doi = {10.1109/CEC.1999.785511},
+ tags = {Calibration, PSO}
+}
+
+@INPROCEEDINGS{shieberhart1998a,
+ author = {Shi, Y. and Eberhart, R.},
+ title = {Parameter Selection in Particle Swarm Optimization},
+ booktitle = {EP '98 Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Evolutionary
+ Programming VII},
+ year = {1998},
+ tags = {Calibration, PSO}
+}
+
+@INPROCEEDINGS{shieberhart1998b,
+ author = {Shi, Y. and Eberhart, R.},
+ title = {A modified particle swarm optimizer},
+ booktitle = {Evolutionary Computation Proceedings, 1998. IEEE World Congress on
+ Computational Intelligence., The 1998 IEEE International Conference
+ on},
+ year = {1998},
+ pages = {69--73},
+ abstract = {Evolutionary computation techniques, genetic algorithms, evolutionary
+ strategies and genetic programming are motivated by the evolution
+ of nature. A population of individuals, which encode the problem
+ solutions are manipulated according to the rule of survival of the
+ fittest through ldquo;genetic rdquo; operations, such as mutation,
+ crossover and reproduction. A best solution is evolved through the
+ generations. In contrast to evolutionary computation techniques,
+ Eberhart and Kennedy developed a different algorithm through simulating
+ social behavior (R.C. Eberhart et al., 1996; R.C. Eberhart and J.
+ Kennedy, 1996; J. Kennedy and R.C. Eberhart, 1995; J. Kennedy, 1997).
+ As in other algorithms, a population of individuals exists. This
+ algorithm is called particle swarm optimization (PSO) since it resembles
+ a school of flying birds. In a particle swarm optimizer, instead
+ of using genetic operators, these individuals are ldquo;evolved rdquo;
+ by cooperation and competition among the individuals themselves through
+ generations. Each particle adjusts its flying according to its own
+ flying experience and its companions' flying experience. We introduce
+ a new parameter, called inertia weight, into the original particle
+ swarm optimizer. Simulations have been done to illustrate the significant
+ and effective impact of this new parameter on the particle swarm
+ optimizer},
+ doi = {10.1109/ICEC.1998.699146},
+ keywords = {competition, cooperation, evolutionary computation techniques, evolutionary
+ strategies, flying birds, flying experience, genetic algorithms,
+ genetic programming, inertia weight, modified particle swarm optimizer,
+ particle swarm optimization, social behavior simulation, survival
+ of the fittest, genetic algorithms, iterative methods, search problems},
+ tags = {Calibration, PSO}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{shiau2011,
+ author = {Shiau, {J.-T.} and {Wen Shen}, H.},
+ title = {Recurrence analysis of hydrologic droughts of differeing severity},
+ journal = {Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management},
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {127},
+ pages = {30--40},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {Droughts are stochastic in nature, therefore, statistical assessment
+ of droughts is an attractive approach for water resources planning
+ and management. In this study, a methodology of frequency and risk
+ analysis of hydrologic droughts, defined as an event during which
+ the streamflow is continuously below a certain truncation level,
+ is formulated. The theoretical derivation of the recurrence interval
+ of hydrologic droughts with a certain severity or greater is obtained
+ based on the concept of stochastic processes. For risk analysis,
+ the distribution of the number of droughts occurring within a specific
+ period of time and the distribution of the interarrival time of hydrologic
+ droughts with a certain severity or greater are determined. To illustrate
+ the feasibility of the proposed methodology, a recorded reservoir
+ inflow is used as a case study. Satisfactory agreement is found between
+ the observed data and the results of the proposed models.},
+ doi = {10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2001)127:1(30)},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.07.05}
+}
+
+@BOOK{shiklomanovrodda2003,
+ title = {World Water Resources at the Beginning of the 21st Century},
+ publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
+ year = {2003},
+ author = {Shiklomanov, I. and Rodda, J.},
+ address = {Cambridge}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{shuklawood2008,
+ author = {Shukla, S. and Wood, A.},
+ title = {Use of standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrologic drought},
+ journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {35},
+ pages = {L02505},
+ abstract = {Many current metrics of drought are derived solely from analyses of
+ climate variables such as precipitation and temperature. Drought
+ is clearly a consequence of climate anomalies, as well as of human
+ water use practices, but many impacts to society are more directly
+ related to hydrologic conditions resulting from these two factors.
+ Modern hydrology models can provide a valuable counterpart to existing
+ climate-based drought indices by simulating hydrologic variables
+ such as land surface runoff. We contrast the behavior of a standardized
+ runoff index (SRI) with that of the well-known standardized precipitation
+ index (SPI) during drought events in a snowmelt region. Although
+ the SRI and SPI are similar when based on long accumulation periods,
+ the SRI incorporates hydrologic processes that determine seasonal
+ lags in the influence of climate on streamflow. As a result, on monthly
+ to seasonal time scales, the SRI is a useful complement to the SPI
+ for depicting hydrologic aspects of drought.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2007GL032487},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.07.05}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{sieberuhlenbrook2005,
+ author = {Sieber, A. and Uhlenbrook, S.},
+ title = {Sensitivity analyses of a distributed catchment model to verify the
+ model structure},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {310},
+ pages = {216--235},
+ number = {1--4},
+ abstract = {Sensitivity analyses are valuable tools for identifying important
+ model parameters, testing the model conceptualization, and improving
+ the model structure. They help to apply the model efficiently and
+ to enable a focussed planning of future research and field measurement.
+ Two different methods were used for sensitivity analyses of the complex
+ process-oriented model TACD (tracer aided catchment model, distributed)
+ that was applied to the meso-scale Brugga basin (40 km2) and the
+ sub-basin St Wilhelmer Talbach (15.2 km2). Five simulations periods
+ were investigated: two summer events, two snow melt induced events
+ and one summer low flow period. The model was applied using 400 different
+ parameter sets, which were generated by Monte Carlo simulations using
+ latin hypercube sampling. The regional sensitivity analysis (RSA)
+ allowed determining the most significant parameters for the complete
+ simulation periods using a graphical method. The results of the regression-based
+ sensitivity analysis were more detailed and complex. The temporal
+ variability of the simulation sensitivity could be observed continuously
+ and the significance of the parameters could be determined in a quantitative
+ way. A dependency of the simulation sensitivity on initial- and boundary
+ conditions and the temporal and spatial variability of the sensitivity
+ to some model parameters was revealed by the regression-based sensitivity
+ analysis. Thus, the difficulty of transferring the results to different
+ time periods or model applications in other catchments became obvious.
+ The analysis of the temporal course of the simulation sensitivity
+ to parameter values in conjunction with simulated and measured additional
+ data sets (precipitation, temperature, reservoir volumes etc.) gave
+ further insight into the internal model behaviour and demonstrated
+ the plausibility of the model structure and process conceptionalizations.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.01.004},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.10.10}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{sillmann2008,
+ author = {Sillmann, J. and Roeckner, E.},
+ title = {Indices for extreme events in projections of anthropogenic climate
+ change},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {86},
+ pages = {83--104},
+ number = {1--2},
+ month = {January},
+ abstract = {Indices for temperature and precipitation extremes are calculated
+ on the basis of the global climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM simulations
+ of the twentieth century and SRES A1B and B1 emission scenarios for
+ the twenty-first century. For model evaluation, the simulated indices
+ representing the present climate were compared with indices based
+ on observational data. This comparison shows that the model is able
+ to realistically capture the observed climatological large-scale
+ patterns of temperature and precipitation indices, although the quality
+ of the simulations depends on the index and region under consideration.
+ In the climate projections for the twenty-first century, all considered
+ temperature-based indices, minimum Tmin, maximum Tmax, and the frequency
+ of tropical nights, show a significant increase worldwide. Similarly,
+ extreme precipitation, as represented by the maximum 5-day precipitation
+ and the 95th percentile of precipitation, is projected to increase
+ significantly in most regions of the world, especially in those that
+ are relatively wet already under present climate conditions. Analogously,
+ dry spells increase particularly in those regions that are characterized
+ by dry conditions in present-day climate. Future changes in the indices
+ exhibit distinct regional and seasonal patterns as identified exemplarily
+ in three European regions.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10584-007-9308-6},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.21}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{singh2009,
+ author = {Singh, A. and Mishra, S. and Ruskauff, G.},
+ title = {Model averaging techniques for quantifying conceptual model uncertainty},
+ journal = {Ground Water},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {48},
+ pages = {701--715},
+ number = {5},
+ month = {September},
+ abstract = {In recent years a growing understanding has emerged regarding the
+ need to expand the modeling paradigm to include conceptual model
+ uncertainty for groundwater models. Conceptual model uncertainty
+ is typically addressed by formulating alternative model conceptualizations
+ and assessing their relative likelihoods using statistical model
+ averaging approaches. Several model averaging techniques and likelihood
+ measures have been proposed in the recent literature for this purpose
+ with two broad categories—Monte Carlo-based techniques such as Generalized
+ Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation or GLUE (Beven and Binley 1992)
+ and criterion-based techniques that use metrics such as the Bayesian
+ and Kashyap Information Criteria (e.g., the Maximum Likelihood Bayesian
+ Model Averaging or MLBMA approach proposed by Neuman 2003) and Akaike
+ Information Criterion-based model averaging (AICMA) (Poeter and Anderson
+ 2005). These different techniques can often lead to significantly
+ different relative model weights and ranks because of differences
+ in the underlying statistical assumptions about the nature of model
+ uncertainty. This paper provides a comparative assessment of the
+ four model averaging techniques (GLUE, MLBMA with KIC, MLBMA with
+ BIC, and AIC-based model averaging) mentioned above for the purpose
+ of quantifying the impacts of model uncertainty on groundwater model
+ predictions. Pros and cons of each model averaging technique are
+ examined from a practitioner's perspective using two groundwater
+ modeling case studies. Recommendations are provided regarding the
+ use of these techniques in groundwater modeling practice.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1745-6584.2009.00642.x},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.01.05}
+}
+
+@INBOOK{sorooshiangupta1995,
+ author = {Singh, V.},
+ editor = {Singh, V.},
+ title = {Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology},
+ chapter = {Model calibration},
+ pages = {23--68},
+ year = {1995},
+ publisher = {Water Resources Publications},
+ address = {Colorado},
+ altauthor = {S. Sorooshian and V.K. Gupta},
+ optannote = {Sorooshian, S. and Gupta, V.K., 1995. Model calibration. In: Singh,
+ V.P., Editor, , 1995. Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology, Water
+ Resources Publications, Colorado, pp. 23{--}68.},
+ tags = {conceptual model}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{skahill2006,
+ author = {Skahill, B. and Doherty, J.},
+ title = {Efficient accomodation of local minima in watershed model calibration},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {329},
+ pages = {122--139},
+ number = {1--2},
+ abstract = {The Gauss–Marquardt–Levenberg (GML) method of computer-based parameter
+ estimation, in common with other gradient-based approaches, suffers
+ from the drawback that it may become trapped in local objective function
+ minima, and thus report “optimized†parameter values that are not,
+ in fact, optimized at all. This can seriously degrade its utility
+ in the calibration of watershed models where local optima abound.
+ Nevertheless, the method also has advantages, chief among these being
+ its model-run efficiency, and its ability to report useful information
+ on parameter sensitivities and covariances as a by-product of its
+ use. It is also easily adapted to maintain this efficiency in the
+ face of potential numerical problems (that adversely affect all parameter
+ estimation methodologies) caused by parameter insensitivity and/or
+ parameter correlation. The present paper presents two algorithmic
+ enhancements to the GML method that retain its strengths, but which
+ overcome its weaknesses in the face of local optima. Using the first
+ of these methods an “intelligent search†for better parameter sets
+ is conducted in parameter subspaces of decreasing dimensionality
+ when progress of the parameter estimation process is slowed either
+ by numerical instability incurred through problem ill-posedness,
+ or when a local objective function minimum is encountered. The second
+ methodology minimizes the chance of successive GML parameter estimation
+ runs finding the same objective function minimum by starting successive
+ runs at points that are maximally removed from previous parameter
+ trajectories. As well as enhancing the ability of a GML-based method
+ to find the global objective function minimum, the latter technique
+ can also be used to find the locations of many non-global optima
+ (should they exist) in parameter space. This can provide a useful
+ means of inquiring into the well-posedness of a parameter estimation
+ problem, and for detecting the presence of bimodal parameter and
+ predictive probability distributions. The new methodologies are demonstrated
+ by calibrating a Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) model
+ against a time series of daily flows. Comparison with the SCE-UA
+ method in this calibration context demonstrates a high level of comparative
+ model run efficiency for the new method.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.02.005},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.07.16}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{smakhtin2001,
+ author = {V.U. Smakhtin},
+ title = {Low flow hydrology: a review},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {240},
+ pages = {147--186},
+ number = {3--4},
+ abstract = {The paper intends to review the current status of low-flow hydrology
+ — a discipline which deals with minimum flow in a river during the
+ dry periods of the year. The discussion starts with the analysis
+ of low-flow generating mechanisms operating in natural conditions
+ and the description of anthropogenic factors which directly or indirectly
+ affect low flows. This is followed by the review of existing methods
+ of low-flow estimation from streamflow time-series, which include
+ flow duration curves, frequency analysis of extreme low-flow events
+ and continuous low-flow intervals, baseflow separation and characterisation
+ of streamflow recessions. The paper describes the variety of low-flow
+ characteristics (indices) and their applications. A separate section
+ illustrates the relationships between low-flow characteristics. The
+ paper further focuses on the techniques for low-flow estimation in
+ ungauged river catchments, which include a regional regression approach,
+ graphical representation of low-flow characteristics, construction
+ of regional curves for low-flow prediction and application of time-series
+ simulation methods. The paper presents a summary of recent international
+ low-flow related research initiatives. Specific applications of low-flow
+ data in river ecology studies and environmental flow management as
+ well as the problem of changing minimum river flows as the result
+ of climate variability are also discussed. The review is largely
+ based on the research results reported during the last twenty years.},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00340-1},
+ issn = {0022-1694},
+ keywords = {Low flow}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{smith+al2008b,
+ author = {Smith, P. and Beven, K. and Tawn, J.},
+ title = {Detection of structural inadequacy in process-based hydrological
+ models: A particle-filtering approach},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {44},
+ pages = { W01410},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {In recent years, increasing computational power has been used to weight
+ competing hydrological models in a Bayesian framework to improve
+ predictive power. This may suggest that for a given measure of association
+ with the observed data, one hydrological model is superior to another.
+ However, careful analyses of the residuals of the model fit are required
+ to propose further improvements to the model. In this paper we consider
+ an alternative method of analyzing the shortcomings in a hydrological
+ model. The hydrological model parameters are treated as varying in
+ time. Simulation using a particle filter algorithm then reveals the
+ parameter distribution needed at each time to reproduce the observed
+ data. The resulting parameter, and the corresponding model state,
+ distributions can be analyzed to propose improvements to the hydrological
+ model. A demonstrative example is presented using rainfall-runoff
+ data from the Leaf River, United States. This indicates that even
+ when explicitly representing the uncertainty of the observed rainfall
+ and discharge series, the technique shows shortcomings in the model
+ structure.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2006WR005205},
+ keywords = {MONTE-CARLO METHODS, RECURSIVE PARAMETER-ESTIMATION, EXTENDED KALMAN
+ FILTER, RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODEL, DATA ASSIMILATION, STREAMFLOW SIMULATION,
+ DYNAMIC-SYSTEMS, UNCERTAINTY, CALIBRATION, OPTIMIZATION},
+ tags = {conceptual model}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{smith2008,
+ author = {Smith, P. and Beven, K. and Tawn, J.},
+ title = {Informal likelihood measures in model assessment: {T}heoretic development
+ and investigation},
+ journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {31},
+ pages = {1087--1100},
+ number = {8},
+ abstract = {Within hydrology performance criteria such as the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency
+ have been used to condition the parameter space of a model. Their
+ use is motivated by the fact that the stochastic error series between
+ a model output and corresponding observations is the result of the
+ composite effect of multiple error sources which cannot be described,
+ even in form, a priori. This paper formalises the use of such performance
+ criteria within a Bayesian framework, such as Generalised Likelihood
+ Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE), by introducing the concept of Informal
+ Likelihoods. Informal Likelihoods are used to characterise desirable
+ features in the relationship between the model output and corresponding
+ observed data. A number of common performance criteria are considered
+ as Informal Likelihoods. Analytical results and a simulation indicate
+ all of the performance criteria considered as Informal Likelihoods
+ in this paper have one or more properties which may be considered
+ undesirable, but may perform no less well in conditioning model parameters
+ than formal likelihoods for which the assumptions are only mildly
+ incorrect.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.advwatres.2008.04.012},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.12.03}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{snowling2001,
+ author = {Snowling, S. and Kramer, J.},
+ title = {Evaluating modelling uncertainty for model selection},
+ journal = {Ecological Modelling},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {138},
+ pages = {17--30},
+ number = {1--3},
+ abstract = {Modelling uncertainty is evaluated with respect to model complexity,
+ sensitivity and error. The hypothesis that more complex models simulate
+ reality better, but with more sensitivity and less error, is tested.
+ An Index of Complexity is proposed. Improvements in fit of more complex
+ models are weighed against the increase in model sensitivity. A simple
+ index of utility is then proposed for model selection. The index
+ of utility evaluates model sensitivity (response to changes in input)
+ and model error (closeness of simulation to measurement). Model utility
+ is evaluated for several models in two case studies, a simple system
+ involving sorption of metals on sediments, and a more complex system,
+ involving groundwater transport of a hydrophobic contaminant. Moderately
+ complex models are found to be the more utile of those tested.},
+ doi = {doi:10.1016/S0304-3800(00)00390-2},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{sohn2000,
+ author = {Sohn, M. and Small, M. and Pantazidou, M.},
+ title = {Reducing uncertainty in site characterization using {B}ayes {M}onte
+ {C}arlo methods},
+ journal = {Journal of Environmental Engineering--ASCE},
+ year = {2000},
+ volume = {126},
+ pages = {893--902},
+ number = {10},
+ abstract = {A Bayesian uncertainty analysis approach is developed as a tool for
+ assessing and reducing uncertainty in ground-water flow and chemical
+ transport predictions. The method is illustrated for a site contaminated
+ with chlorinated hydrocarbons. Uncertainty in source characterization,
+ in chemical transport parameters, and in the assumed hydrogeologic
+ structure was evaluated using engineering judgment and updated using
+ observed field data. The updating approach using observed hydraulic
+ head data was able to differentiate between reasonable and unreasonable
+ hydraulic conductivity fields but could not differentiate between
+ alternative conceptual models for the geological structure of the
+ subsurface at the site. Updating using observed chemical concentration
+ data reduced the uncertainty in most parameters and reduced uncertainty
+ in alternative conceptual models describing the geological structure
+ at the site, source locations, and the chemicals released at these
+ sources. Thirty-year transport projections for no-action and source
+ containment scenarios demonstrate a typical application of the methods.},
+ doi = {10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9372(2000)126:10(893)},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@INCOLLECTION{solomon+al2007,
+ author = {S. Solomon and D. Qin and M. Manning and R.B. Alley and T. Berntsen
+ and N. L. Bindoff and Z. Chen and A. Chidthaisong and J. M. Gregory
+ and G.C. Hegerl and M. Heimann and B. Hewitson and B.J. Hoskins and
+ F. Joos and J. Jouzel and V. Kattsov and U. Lohmann and T. Matsuno
+ and M. Molina and N. Nicholls and J. Overpeck and G. Raga and V.
+ Ramaswamy and J. Ren and M. Rusticucci and R. Somerville and T. F.
+ Stocker and P. Whetton and R. A. Wood and D. Wratt},
+ title = {Technical Summary},
+ booktitle = {Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of
+ Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
+ Panel on Climate Change},
+ publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
+ year = {2007},
+ editor = {S. Solomon and D. Qin and M. Manning and Z. Chen and M. Marquis and
+ K. B. Averyt and M. Tignor and H.L. Miller},
+ address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
+ tags = {IPCC}
+}
+
+@BOOK{sorensen2002,
+ title = {Likelihood, {B}ayesian, and {MCMC} methods in quantitative genetics},
+ publisher = {Springer-Verlag},
+ year = {2002},
+ author = {Sorensen, D. and Gianola, D.},
+ volume = {I},
+ pages = {740},
+ address = {New York},
+ edition = {First},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ refid = {SORENSEN2002},
+ timestamp = {2008.11.04}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{sorooshiandracup1980,
+ author = {Sorooshian, S. and Dracup, J.},
+ title = {Stochastic Parameter Estimation Procedures for Hydrologic Rainfall-Runoff
+ Models: Correlated and Heteroscedastic Error Cases},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1980},
+ volume = {16},
+ pages = {430--442},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {A maximum likelihood estimation procedure is presented through which
+ two aspects of the streamflow measurement errors of the calibration
+ phase are accounted for. First, the correlated error case is considered
+ where a first-order autoregressive scheme is presupposed for the
+ additive errors. This proposed procedure first determines the anticipated
+ correlation coefficient of the errors and then uses it in the objective
+ function to estimate the best values of the model parameters. Second,
+ the heteroscedastic error case (changing variance) is considered
+ for which a weighting approach, using the concept of power transformation,
+ is developed. The performances of the new procedures are tested with
+ synthetic data for various error conditions on a two-parameter model.
+ In comparison with the simple least squares criterion and the weighted
+ least squares scheme of the HEC-1 of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
+ for the heteroschedastic case, the new procedures constantly produced
+ better estimates. The procedures were found to be easy to implement
+ with no convergence problem. In the absence of correlated errors,
+ as theoretically expected, the correlated error procedure produces
+ the exact same estimates as the simple least squares criterion. Likewise,
+ the self-correcting ability of the heteroschedastic error procedure
+ was effective in reducing the objective function to that of the simple
+ least squares as data gradually became homoscedastic. Finally, the
+ effective residual tests for detection of the above-mentioned error
+ situations are discussed. },
+ doi = {10.1029/WR016i002p00430 },
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{sorooshianduangupta2003,
+ author = {Sorooshian, S. and Duan, Q. and Gupta, V.},
+ title = {Calibration of Rainfall-Runoff Models - Application Of Global Optimization
+ To The Sacramento Soil-Moisture Accounting Model},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1993},
+ volume = {29},
+ pages = {1185--1194},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {Conceptual rainfall-runoff models are difficult to calibrate by means
+ of automatic methods; one major reason for this is the inability
+ of conventional procedures to locate the globally optimal set of
+ parameters. This paper investigates the consistency with which two
+ global optimization methods, the shuffled complex evolution (SCE-UA)
+ method (developed by the authors) and the multistart simplex (MSX)
+ method, are able to find the optimal parameter set during calibration
+ of the Sacramento soil moisture accounting model (SAC-SMA) of the
+ National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS). In the first
+ phase of this study, error-free synthetic data are used to conduct
+ a comparative evaluation of the algorithms under ''ideal'' conditions.
+ In 10 independent trials of each algorithm in which 13 parameters
+ of the SAC-SMA model were optimized simultaneously, the SCE-UA method
+ achieved a 100\% success rate in locating the precise global optimum
+ (i.e., the ''true'' parameter values) while the MSX method failed
+ in all trials even with more than twice the number of function evaluations.
+ In the second phase, historical data from the Leaf River watershed
+ are used to conduct a comparative evaluation of the algorithms under
+ ''real'' conditions, using two different estimation criteria, DRMS
+ and HMLE; the SCE-UA algorithm obtained consistently lower function
+ values and more closely grouped parameter estimates, while using
+ one-third fewer function evaluations than the MSX algorithm.},
+ doi = {10.1029/92WR02617 },
+ keywords = {SMALL HYPOTHETICAL CATCHMENTS, AUTOMATIC CALIBRATION, OBSERVABILITY,
+ UNCERTAINTY, UNIQUENESS, ALGORITHMS, REPRESENT, DYNAMICS, ABILITY},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{sorooshiangupta1983,
+ author = {Sorooshian, S. and Gupta, V.},
+ title = {Automatic Calibration of Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Models: The Question
+ of Parameter Observability and Uniqueness},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1983},
+ volume = {19},
+ pages = {260--268},
+ number = {1},
+ doi = {10.1029/WR019i001p00260},
+ tags = {Calibration, Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{sorooshian+al1983,
+ author = {Sorooshian, S. and Gupta, V. and Fulton, J.},
+ title = {Evaluation of Maximum Likelihood Parameter Estimation Techniques
+ for Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Models : Influence of Calibration
+ Data Variability and Length on Model Credibility},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1983},
+ volume = {19},
+ pages = {251--259},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {The success of an automatic calibration procedure is highly dependent
+ on the choice of the objective function and the nature (quantity
+ and quality) of the data used. The objective function should be selected
+ on the basis of the stochastic properties of the errors present in
+ the data and in the model. Also, the data should be chosen so as
+ to contain as much valuable information about the process as possible.
+ In this paper we compare the performance of two maximum likelihood
+ estimators, the AMLE, which assumes the presence of first lag autocorrelated
+ homogeneous variance errors, and the HMLE, which assumes the presence
+ of uncorrelated inhomogeneous variance errors, to the commonly used
+ simple least squares criterion, SLS. The model calibrated was the
+ soil moisture accounting model of the U.S. National Weather Service's
+ river forecast system (SMA-NWSRFS). The results indicate that a properly
+ chosen objective function can enhance the possibility of obtaining
+ unique and conceptually realistic parameter estimates. Furthermore,
+ the sensitivity of the estimation results to various characteristics
+ of the calibration data, such as hydrologic variability and length,
+ are substantially reduced.},
+ doi = {10.1029/WR019i001p00251},
+ tags = {conceptual model, Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{soussana+al2009,
+ author = {Soussana, {J.-F.} and Tubiello, F. and Graux, {A.-I.}},
+ title = {Use and misuse of modelling for projections of climate change impacts
+ on crops and pastures},
+ journal = {Comparative Biochemistry and Physiology - Part A: Molecular \& Integrative
+ Physiology},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {153},
+ pages = {S223--S224},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {Projections of climate change impacts on global food supply are largely
+ based on crop and pasture modelling. The consistency of these models
+ with experimental data and their ability to simulate the effects
+ of elevated CO2 and of increased climate variability has been debated.
+ It has recently been argued that most models tend to overestimate
+ the CO2 response of crops compared to Free Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment
+ (FACE) data. In addition, the effects of high temperatures, of increased
+ climate variability and of several limiting factors such as nutrients,
+ air quality, pests and weeds, may reduce the effects of elevated
+ CO2 and such interactions are neither well understood nor well implemented
+ in leading models. We discuss possible improvements in crop and pasture
+ models based on fundamental knowledge at the plant and plot level.
+ We conclude by making recommendations for current and future research
+ needs, with a focus on stable and increased support for long-term
+ studies and multi-factor experiments, explicit inclusion of biodiversity,
+ disturbance, and extreme events in experiments and models and increased
+ support for model–model and model–experiment comparisons.},
+ abstracts = {Projections of climate change impacts on global food supply are largely
+ based on crop and pasture modelling. The consistency of these models
+ with experimental data and their ability to simulate the effects
+ of elevated CO2 and of increased climate variability has been debated.
+ It has recently been argued that most models tend to overestimate
+ the CO2 response of crops compared to Free Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment
+ (FACE) data. In addition, the effects of high temperatures, of increased
+ climate variability and of several limiting factors such as nutrients,
+ air quality, pests and weeds, may reduce the effects of elevated
+ CO2 and such interactions are neither well understood nor well implemented
+ in leading models. We discuss possible improvements in crop and pasture
+ models based on fundamental knowledge at the plant and plot level.
+ We conclude by making recommendations for current and future research
+ needs, with a focus on stable and increased support for long-term
+ studies and multi-factor experiments, explicit inclusion of biodiversity,
+ disturbance, and extreme events in experiments and models and increased
+ support for model--model and model--experiment comparisons},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.cbpa.2009.04.555},
+ tags = {Agriculture}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{spear1980,
+ author = {Spear, R. and Hornberger, G.},
+ title = {Eutrophication in peel inlet--{II}. Identification of critical uncertainties
+ via generalized sensitivity analysis},
+ journal = {Water Research},
+ year = {1980},
+ volume = {14},
+ pages = {43--49},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {A generalized sensitivity analysis was carried out on a phosphorous
+ based model of cultural eutrophication processes in the Peel Inlet
+ of Western Australia. The object of the analysis was to identify
+ critical uncertainties in present knowledge of the system for the
+ direction and planning of future research. The main hypothesis suggested
+ by the results is that the nuisance alga, Cladophora aff. battersii,
+ have access to nutrients in the interstitial water of the sediments
+ in the Inlet and that a significant quantity of nutrient is deposited
+ in the major area of Cladophora growth by river-borne sediment. Suggested
+ areas for future research include investigation of mechanisms of
+ deposition, release and remineralization of nutrients in the sediment,
+ and of certain aspects of the physiology of Cladophora.},
+ doi = {10.1016/0043-1354(80)90040-8},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.26}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{spelucci1998,
+ author = {Spellucci, P.},
+ title = {An {SQP} method for general nonlinear programs using only equality
+ constrained subproblems},
+ journal = {Mathematical Programming},
+ year = {1998},
+ volume = {82},
+ pages = {413--448},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {In this paper we describe a new version of a sequential equality constrained
+ quadratic programming method for general nonlinear programs with
+ mixed equality and inequality constraints. Compared with an older
+ version [P. Spellucci, Han's method without solving QP, in: A. Auslender,
+ W. Oettli, J. Stoer (Eds), Optimization and Optimal Control, Lecture
+ Notes in Control and Information Sciences, vol. 30, Springer, Berlin,
+ 1981, pp. 123–141.] it is much simpler to implement and allows any
+ kind of changes of the working set in every step. Our method relies
+ on a strong regularity condition. As far as it is applicable the
+ new approach is superior to conventional SQP-methods, as demonstrated
+ by extensive numcrical tests.},
+ doi = {10.1007/BF01580078},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{sperna2010,
+ author = {{Sperna Weiland}, F. and {van Beek}, L. and Kwadijk, J. and Bierkens,
+ M.},
+ title = {The ability of a {GCM}--forced hydrological model to reproduce global
+ discharge variability},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {7},
+ pages = {687--724},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {Data from General Circulation Models (GCMs) are often used in studies
+ investigating hydrological impacts of climate change. However GCM
+ data are known to have large biases, especially for precipitation.
+ In this study the usefulness of GCM data for hydrological studies
+ was tested by applying bias-corrected daily climate data of the 20CM3
+ control experiment from an ensemble of twelve GCMs as input to the
+ global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. Results are compared with discharges
+ calculated from a model run based on a reference meteorological dataset
+ constructed from the CRU TS2.1 data and ERA-40 reanalysis time-series.
+ Bias-correction was limited to monthly mean values as our focus was
+ on the reproduction of runoff variability. The bias-corrected GCM
+ based runs resemble the reference run reasonably well, especially
+ for rivers with strong seasonal patterns. However, GCM derived discharge
+ quantities are overall too low. Furthermore, from the arctic regimes
+ it can be seen that a few deviating GCMs can bias the ensemble mean.
+ Moreover, the GCMs do not well represent intra- and inter-year variability
+ as exemplified by a limited persistence. This makes them less suitable
+ for the projection of future runoff extremes.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hessd-7-687-2010},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.21}
+}
+
+@BOOK{spitzmoreno1996,
+ title = {A practical guide to groundwater and solute transport modeling},
+ publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons Inc.},
+ year = {1996},
+ author = {Spitz, K. and Moreno, J.},
+ pages = {461},
+ address = {New York},
+ edition = {First},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{Stahl2010,
+ author = {Stahl, K. and Hisdal, H. and Hannaford, J. and Tallaksen, L. M. and
+ {van Lanen}, H. A. J. and Sauquet, E. and Demuth, S. and Fendekova,
+ M. and J\'odar, J.},
+ title = {Streamflow trends in Europe: evidence from a dataset of near-natural
+ catchments},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {14},
+ pages = {2367--2382},
+ number = {12},
+ abstract = {Streamflow observations from near-natural catchments are of paramount
+ importance for detection and attribution studies, evaluation of large-scale
+ model simulations, and assessment of water management, adaptation
+ and policy options. This study investigates streamflow trends in
+ a newly-assembled, consolidated dataset of near-natural streamflow
+ records from 441 small catchments in 15 countries across Europe.
+ The period 1962–2004 provided the best spatial coverage, but analyses
+ were also carried out for longer time periods (with fewer stations),
+ starting in 1932, 1942 and 1952. Trends were calculated by the slopes
+ of the Kendall-Theil robust line for standardized annual and monthly
+ streamflow, as well as for summer low flow magnitude and timing.
+ A regionally coherent picture of annual streamflow trends emerged,
+ with negative trends in southern and eastern regions, and generally
+ positive trends elsewhere. Trends in monthly streamflow for 1962–2004
+ elucidated potential causes for these changes, as well as for changes
+ in hydrological regimes across Europe. Positive trends were found
+ in the winter months in most catchments. A marked shift towards negative
+ trends was observed in April, gradually spreading across Europe to
+ reach a maximum extent in August. Low flows have decreased in most
+ regions where the lowest mean monthly flow occurs in summer, but
+ vary for catchments which have flow minima in winter and secondary
+ low flows in summer. The study largely confirms findings from national
+ and regional scale trend analyses, but clearly adds to these by confirming
+ that these tendencies are part of coherent patterns of change, which
+ cover a much larger region. The broad, continental-scale patterns
+ of change are mostly congruent with the hydrological responses expected
+ from future climatic changes, as projected by climate models. The
+ patterns observed could hence provide a valuable benchmark for a
+ number of different studies and model simulations.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-14-2367-2010}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{stainforth+al2005,
+ author = {Stainforth, D. and Aina, T. and Christensen, C. and Collins, M. and
+ Faull, F. and Frame, D. and Kettleborough, J. and Knight, S. and
+ Martin, A. and Murphy, J. and Piani, C. and Sexton, D. and Smith,
+ L. and Spicer, R. and Thorpe, A. and Allen, M.},
+ title = {Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels
+ of greenhouse gases},
+ journal = {Nature},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {433},
+ pages = {403--406},
+ number = {7024},
+ abstract = {The range of possibilities for future climate evolution needs to be
+ taken into account when planning climate change mitigation and adaptation
+ strategies. This requires ensembles of multi-decadal simulations
+ to assess both chaotic climate variability and model response uncertainty.
+ Statistical estimates of model response uncertainty, based on observations
+ of recent climate change admit climate sensitivities—defined as the
+ equilibrium response of global mean temperature to doubling levels
+ of atmospheric carbon dioxide—substantially greater than 5 K. But
+ such strong responses are not used in ranges for future climate change
+ because they have not been seen in general circulation models. Here
+ we present results from the 'climateprediction.net' experiment, the
+ first multi-thousand-member grand ensemble of simulations using a
+ general circulation model and thereby explicitly resolving regional
+ details. We find model versions as realistic as other state-of-the-art
+ climate models but with climate sensitivities ranging from less than
+ 2 K to more than 11 K. Models with such extreme sensitivities are
+ critical for the study of the full range of possible responses of
+ the climate system to rising greenhouse gas levels, and for assessing
+ the risks associated with specific targets for stabilizing these
+ levels.},
+ doi = {10.1038/nature03301},
+ pmid = {15674288},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, Thesis}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{stedinger2008,
+ author = {Stedinger, J. and Vogel, R. and Lee, S. and Batchelder, R.},
+ title = {Appraisal of the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation {(GLUE)}
+ method},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {44},
+ pages = {W00B06},
+ abstract = {Recent research documents that the widely accepted generalized likelihood
+ uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method for describing forecasting precision
+ and the impact of parameter uncertainty in rainfall/runoff watershed
+ models fails to achieve the intended purpose when used with an informal
+ likelihood measure. In particular, GLUE generally fails to produce
+ intervals that capture the precision of estimated parameters, and
+ the difference between predictions and future observations. This
+ paper illustrates these problems with GLUE using a simple linear
+ rainfall/runoff model so that model calibration is a linear regression
+ problem for which exact expressions for prediction precision and
+ parameter uncertainty are well known and understood. The simple regression
+ example enables us to clearly and simply illustrate GLUE deficiencies.
+ Beven and others have suggested that the choice of the likelihood
+ measure used in a GLUE computation is subjective and may be selected
+ to reflect the goals of the modeler. If an arbitrary likelihood is
+ adopted that does not reasonably reflect the sampling distribution
+ of the model errors, then GLUE generates arbitrary results without
+ statistical validity that should not be used in scientific work.
+ The traditional subjective likelihood measures that have been used
+ with GLUE also fail to reflect the nonnormality, heteroscedasticity,
+ and serial correlation among the residual errors generally found
+ in real problems, and hence are poor metrics for even simple sensitivity
+ analyses and model calibration. Most previous applications of GLUE
+ only produce uncertainty intervals for the average model prediction,
+ which by construction should not be expected to include future observations
+ with the prescribed probability. We show how the GLUE methodology
+ when properly implemented with a statistically valid likelihood function
+ can provide prediction intervals for future observations which will
+ agree with widely accepted and statistically valid analyses.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2008WR006822},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{steeledunne+al2008,
+ author = {{Steele-Dunne}, S. and Lynch, P. and McGrath, R. and Semmler, T.
+ and Wang, S. and Hanafin, J. and Nolan, P.},
+ title = {The impacts of climate change on hydrology in {I}reland},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {356},
+ pages = {28--45},
+ number = {1--2},
+ abstract = {A study of nine Irish catchments was carried out to quantify the expected
+ impact of climate change on hydrology in Ireland. Boundary data from
+ the European Centre Hamburg Model Version 5 (ECHAM 5) general circulation
+ model were used to force the Rossby Centre Atmosphere Model (RCA3)
+ regional climate model, producing dynamically downscaled precipitation
+ and temperature data under past and future climate scenarios. This
+ data was used to force the HBV-Light conceptual rainfall-runoff model
+ to simulate stream flow in the reference period (1961--2000) and
+ in the future (2021--2060) under the Special Report on Emissions
+ Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. A Monte-Carlo approach to calibration
+ was used to obtain 100 parameter sets which reproduced observed stream
+ flow well. Use of an ensemble provided results in terms of a range
+ rather than a single value. Results suggested an amplification of
+ the seasonal cycle across the country, driven by increased winter
+ precipitation, decreased summer precipitation and increased temperature.
+ The expected changes in mean winter and summer flows as well as annual
+ maximum daily mean flow varied depending on catchment characteristics
+ and the timing and magnitude of expected changes in precipitation
+ in each catchment.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.03.025},
+ keywords = {Climate change, Ireland, Catchment hydrology, Parameter uncertainty,
+ Calibration},
+ tags = {Climate Change}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{stone+al2005,
+ author = {Stone, D. and Allen, M.},
+ title = {The end--to--end attribution problem: {F}rom emissions to impacts},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {71},
+ pages = {303--318},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {When a damaging extreme meteorological event occurs, the question
+ often arises as to whether that event was caused by anthropogenic
+ greenhouse gas emissions. The question is more than academic, since
+ people affected by the event will be interested in recurring damages
+ if they find that someone is at fault. However, since this extreme
+ event could have occurred by chance in an unperturbed climate, we
+ are currently unable to properly respond to this question. A solution
+ lies in recognising the similarity with the cause-effect issue in
+ the epidemiological field. The approach there is to consider the
+ changes in the risk of the event occurring as attributable, as against
+ the occurrence of the event itself. Inherent in this approach is
+ a recognition that knowledge of the change in risk as well as the
+ amplitude of the forcing itself are uncertain. Consequently, the
+ fraction of the risk attributable to the external forcing is a probabilistic
+ quantity. Here we develop and demonstrate this methodology in the
+ context of the climate change},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10584-005-6778-2},
+ tags = {Thesis, Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{stonestrom2009,
+ author = {Stonestrom, D.},
+ title = {Introduction to special section on Impacts of Land Use Change on
+ Water Resources},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {45},
+ pages = {W00A00},
+ abstract = {Changes in land use have potentially large impacts on water resources,
+ yet quantifying these impacts remains among the more challenging
+ problems in hydrology. Water, food, energy, and climate are linked
+ through complex webs of direct and indirect effects and feedbacks.
+ Land use is undergoing major changes due not only to pressures for
+ more efficient food, feed, and fiber production to support growing
+ populations but also due to policy shifts that are creating markets
+ for biofuel and agricultural carbon sequestration. Hydrologic systems
+ embody flows of water, solutes, sediments, and energy that vary even
+ in the absence of human activity. Understanding land use impacts
+ thus necessitates integrated scientific approaches. Field measurements,
+ remote sensing, and modeling studies are shedding new light on the
+ modes and mechanisms by which land use changes impact water resources.
+ Such studies can help deconflate the interconnected influences of
+ human actions and natural variations on the quantity and quality
+ of soil water, surface water, and groundwater, past, present, and
+ future.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2009WR007937},
+ tags = {Climate Change}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{stottkettleborough2002,
+ author = {Stott, P. and Kettleborough, J.},
+ title = {Origins and estimates of uncertainty in prediction of twenty--first
+ century temperature rise},
+ journal = {Nature},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {416},
+ pages = {723--726},
+ number = {6882},
+ abstract = {Predictions of temperature rise over the twenty-first century are
+ necessarily uncertain, both because the sensitivity of the climate
+ system to changing atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations, as
+ well as the rate of ocean heat uptake, is poorly quantified and because
+ future influences on climate—of anthropogenic as well as natural
+ origin—are difficult to predict. Past observations have been used
+ to help constrain the range of uncertainties in future warming rates,
+ but under the assumption of a particular scenario of future emissions.
+ Here we investigate the relative importance of the uncertainty in
+ climate response to a particular emissions scenario versus the uncertainty
+ caused by the differences between future emissions scenarios for
+ our estimates of future change. We present probabilistic forecasts
+ of global-mean temperatures for four representative scenarios for
+ future emissions, obtained with a comprehensive climate model. We
+ find that, in the absence of policies to mitigate climate change,
+ global-mean temperature rise is insensitive to the differences in
+ the emissions scenarios over the next four decades. We also show
+ that in the future, as the signal of climate change emerges further,
+ the predictions will become better constrained.},
+ doi = {10.1038/416723a},
+ tags = {Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{strzepek1997,
+ author = {Strzepek, K. and Yates, D.},
+ title = {Climate change impacts on the hydrologic resources of {Europe}: a
+ simplified continental scale analysis},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {1997},
+ volume = {36},
+ pages = {79--92},
+ number = {1--2},
+ abstract = {U.S. Country Studies supported analyses of climate change impacts
+ on water resources have been completed or are underway in the following
+ Central and Eastern European nations: Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland,
+ Romania, Estonia, Russian Federation, and the Ukraine. Climate change
+ impacts on the hydrologic resources of these countries is being performed
+ at the river basin scale using monthly water balance models using
+ GCM-based climate scenarios. The authors have performed a regional
+ analysis of climate change impacts on the Hydrologic Resources of
+ Europe using the Turc Annual Model. The regional analysis was done
+ with GIS methodolgies using regional climate databases. The regional
+ results were compared to the U.S. Country Studies hydrologic assessmnent
+ results to validiate the use of this simplified methodolgy for making
+ regional climate change assessment. Results from three countries
+ showed acceptable performace of the annual approach . Using GCM-based
+ climate scenarios regional analysis of potential climate change impacts
+ on the hydrologic resources of Europe was conducted and national
+ and regional results are presented.},
+ doi = {10.1023/A:1005305827527},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.08.05}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{suklitsch+al2010,
+ author = {Suklitsch, M. and Gobiet, A. and Truhetz, H. and Awan, N. and G\"ottel,
+ H. and Jacob, D.},
+ title = {Error characteristics of high resolution regional climate models
+ over the {Alpine area}},
+ journal = {Climate Dynamics},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {37},
+ pages = {377-390},
+ number = {1--2},
+ abstract = {This study describes typical error ranges of high resolution regional
+ climate models operated over complex orography and investigates the
+ scale-dependence of these error ranges. The results are valid primarily
+ for the European Alpine region, but to some extent they can also
+ be transferred to other orographically complex regions of the world.
+ We investigate the model errors by evaluating a set of 62 one-year
+ hindcast experiments for the year 1999 with four different regional
+ climate models. The analysis is conducted for the parameters mean
+ sea level pressure, air temperature (mean, minimum and maximum) and
+ precipitation (mean, frequency and intensity), both as an area average
+ over the whole modeled domain (the “Greater Alpine Regionâ€, GAR)
+ and in six subregions. The subregional seasonal error ranges, defined
+ as the interval between the 2.5th percentile and the 97.5th percentile,
+ lie between ?3.2 and +2.0 K for temperature and between ?2.0 and
+ +3.1 mm/day (?45.7 and +94.7%) for precipitation, respectively. While
+ the temperature error ranges are hardly broadened at smaller scales,
+ the precipitation error ranges increase by 28%. These results demonstrate
+ that high resolution RCMs are applicable in relatively small scale
+ climate impact studies with a comparable quality as on well investigated
+ larger scales as far as temperature is concerned. For precipitation,
+ which is a much more demanding parameter, the quality is moderately
+ degraded on smaller scales.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00382-010-0848-5},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.02.02}
+}
+
+@BOOK{sun1994,
+ title = {Inverse {P}roblems in {G}roundwater {M}odeling ({T}heory and {A}pplications
+ of {T}ransport in {P}orous {M}edia)},
+ publisher = {Kluwer Academic Publishers},
+ year = {1994},
+ author = {Sun, N--Z.},
+ pages = {352},
+ address = {The Netherlands},
+ edition = {First},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{susuki1985,
+ author = {Suzuki, O. and Aravena, R.},
+ title = {Hidrolog\'ia isot\'opica y el recurso agua del sector {Esmeralda--Pica--Matilla}},
+ journal = {Nucleot\'ecnica},
+ year = {1985},
+ volume = {4},
+ pages = {41--51},
+ number = {8},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.04.07}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{svensson+al2005,
+ author = {Svensson, Cecilia and Kundzewicz, W. Zbigniew and Maurer, Thomas},
+ title = {Trend detection in river flow series: 2. Flood and low-flow index
+ series},
+ journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {50},
+ pages = {811--824},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = { Abstract Major floods in Europe and North America during the past
+ decade have provoked the question of whether or not they are an effect
+ of a changing climate. This study investigates changes in observational
+ data, using up to 100-year-long daily mean river flow records at
+ 21 stations worldwide. Trends in seven flood and low-flow index series
+ are assessed using Mann-Kendall and linear regression methods. Emphasis
+ was on the comparison of trends in these flow index series, particularly
+ in peak-over-threshold (POT) series as opposed to annual maximum
+ (AM) river flow series. There is a larger number of significant trends
+ in the AM than in the POT flood magnitude series, probably relating
+ to the way the series are constructed. Low flood peaks occurring
+ at the beginning or end of a time series with trend may be too low
+ to be selected for the POT analysis. However, one peak per year will
+ always be selected for the AM series, making the slope steeper and/or
+ the series longer, resulting in a more significant trend. There is
+ no general pattern of increasing or decreasing numbers or magnitudes
+ of floods, but there are significant increases in half of the low-flow
+ series. },
+ doi = {10.1623/hysj.2005.50.5.811}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hyung2007,
+ author = {{Tae-Choi}, H. and Beven, K.},
+ title = {Multi--period and multi--criteria model conditioning to reduce prediction
+ uncertainty in an application of {TOPMODEL} within the {GLUE} framework},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {332},
+ pages = {316--336},
+ number = {3--4},
+ abstract = {A new approach to multi-criteria model evaluation is presented. The
+ approach is consistent with the equifinality thesis and is developed
+ within the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework.
+ The predictions of Monte Carlo realisations of TOPMODEL parameter
+ sets are evaluated using a number of performance measures calibrated
+ for both global (annual) and seasonal (30 day) periods. The seasonal
+ periods were clustered using a Fuzzy C-means algorithm, into 15 types
+ representing different hydrological conditions. The model shows good
+ performance on a classical efficiency measure at the global level,
+ but no model realizations were found that were behavioural over all
+ multi-period clusters and all performance measures, raising questions
+ about what should be considered as an acceptable model performance.
+ Prediction uncertainties can still be calculated by allowing that
+ different clusters require different parameter sets. Variations in
+ parameter distributions between clusters, as well as examination
+ of where observed discharges depart from model prediction bounds,
+ give some indication of model structure deficiencies.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.07.012},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{tallaksen+al2009,
+ author = {Lena M. Tallaksen and Hege Hisdal and Henny A.J. Van Lanen},
+ title = {Space–time modelling of catchment scale drought characteristics},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {375},
+ pages = {363--372},
+ number = {3–-4},
+ abstract = {Summary Drought may affect all components of the water cycle and covers
+ commonly a large part of the catchment area. This paper examines
+ drought propagation at the catchment scale using spatially aggregated
+ drought characteristics and illustrates the importance of catchment
+ processes in modifying the drought signal in both time and space.
+ Analysis is conducted using monthly time series covering the period
+ 1961–1997 for the Pang catchment, UK. The time series include observed
+ rainfall and groundwater recharge, head and discharge simulated by
+ physically-based soil water and groundwater models. Drought events
+ derived separately for each unit area and variable are combined to
+ yield catchment scale drought characteristics. The study reveals
+ relatively large differences in the spatial and temporal characteristics
+ of drought for the different variables. Meteorological droughts cover
+ frequently the whole catchment; and they are more numerous and last
+ for a short time (1–2 months). In comparison, droughts in recharge
+ and hydraulic head cover typically a smaller area and last longer
+ (4–5 months). Hydraulic head and groundwater discharge exhibit
+ similar drought characteristics, which can be expected in a groundwater
+ fed catchment. Deficit volume is considered a robust measure of the
+ severity of a drought event over the catchment area for all variables;
+ whereas, duration is less sensitive, particular for rainfall. Spatial
+ variability in drought characteristics for groundwater recharge,
+ head and discharge are primarily controlled by catchment properties.
+ It is recommended not to use drought area separately as a measure
+ of drought severity at the catchment scale, rather it should be used
+ in combination with other drought characteristics like duration and
+ deficit volume.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.032},
+ issn = {0022-1694},
+ keywords = {Drought}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{tallaksen+al1997,
+ author = {Tallaksen, L. M. and Madsen, H. and Clausen, B.},
+ title = {On the definition and modelling of streamflow drought duration and
+ deficit volume},
+ journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
+ year = {1997},
+ volume = {42},
+ pages = {15--33},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {The threshold level approach is used to define drought characteristics,
+ i.e. drought duration and deficit volume from time series of daily
+ streamflow. Three different procedures for pooling dependent droughts
+ are compared: a method based on an inter-event time and volume criterion
+ (IC), a moving average procedure (MA), and a method based on the
+ sequent peak algorithm (SPA). The extreme values of drought duration
+ and deficit volume are analysed using both an annual maximum series
+ (AMS) and a partial duration series (PDS) approach. Two Danish catchments
+ with very different flow regimes were used in the study. The IC and
+ MA methods provided virtually the same sample statistics of the AMS
+ of drought duration and deficit volume for all thresholds considered.
+ The results of the SPA method differed significantly from the other
+ two methods for high thresholds due to the presence of multi-year
+ droughts. For analysis of seasonal droughts the SPA method is restricted
+ to low thresholds. The occurrence of a large number of zerodrought
+ years for low thresholds may significantly reduce the information
+ content of the AMS, and in this case the PDS model is superior. The
+ problem of minor droughts in the PDS was implicitly reduced by using
+ the MA and SPA methods, and in this respect these methods have an
+ important advantage as compared to the IC method.},
+ doi = {10.1080/02626669709492003},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.07.05}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{tamura2007,
+ author = {Tamura, R.},
+ title = {Rdonlp2: {A}n {R} extension library to use {P}eter {S}pellucci's
+ {DONLP}2 from {R}. {R} package version 0.3--1},
+ year = {2007},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23},
+ url = {http://arumat.net/Rdonlp2/}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{tangbagchi2010,
+ author = {Tang, Z. and Bagchi, K.},
+ title = {Globally Convergent Particle Swarm Optimization via Branch-and-Bound},
+ journal = {Computer and Information Science},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {3},
+ pages = {60--71},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is a recently developed optimization
+ method that has attracted interest of researchers in various areas.
+ PSO has been shown to be effective in solving a variety of complex
+ optimization problems. With properly chosen parameters, PSO can converge
+ to local optima. However, conventional PSO does not have global convergence.
+ Empirical evidences indicate that the PSO algorithm may fail to reach
+ global optimal solutions for complex problems. We propose to combine
+ the branch-and-bound framework with the particle swarm optimization
+ algorithm. With this integrated approach, convergence to global optimal
+ solutions is theoretically guaranteed. We have developed and implemented
+ the BB-PSO algorithm that combines the efficiency of PSO and effectiveness
+ of the branch-and-bound method. The BB-PSO method was tested with
+ a set of standard benchmark optimization problems. Experimental results
+ confirm that BB-PSO is effective in finding global optimal solutions
+ to problems that may cause difficulties for the PSO algorithm.},
+ tags = {PSO},
+ url = {http://www.ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/cis/article/view/7039/6114}
+}
+
+@MANUAL{RTeam2011b,
+ title = {{R} Data Import/Export},
+ author = {Team, R. Development Core},
+ year = {2011},
+ note = {ISBN 3-900051-10-0},
+ tags = {R}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{tebaldi+al2004,
+ author = {Tebaldi, C.},
+ title = {Regional probabilities of precipitation change: A {B}ayesian analysis
+ of multimodel simulations},
+ journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {31},
+ pages = {L24213},
+ number = {24},
+ abstract = {Tebaldi et al. [2005] present a Bayesian approach to determining probability
+ distribution functions (PDFs) of temperature change at regional scales,
+ from the output of a multi-model ensemble, run under the same scenario
+ of future anthropogenic emissions. The main characteristic of the
+ method is the formalization of the two criteria of bias and convergence
+ that the REA method [Giorgi and Mearns, 2002] first quantified as
+ a way of assessing model reliability. Thus, the General Circulation
+ Models (AOGCMs) of the ensemble are combined in a way that accounts
+ for their performance with respect to current climate and a measure
+ of each model's agreement with the majority of the ensemble. We apply
+ the Bayesian model to a set of transient experiments under two SRES
+ scenarios. We focus on predictions of precipitation change, for land
+ regions of subcontinental size. We highlight differences in the PDFs
+ of precipitation change derived in regions where models find easy
+ agreement, and perform well in simulating present day precipitation,
+ compared to regions where models have large biases, and/or their
+ future projections disagree. We compare results from the two scenarios,
+ thus assessing the consequences of the two alternative hypotheses,
+ and present summaries based on their averaging},
+ doi = {10.1029/2004GL021276},
+ tags = {Multimodel - Ensambles}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{tebaldiknutti2007,
+ author = {Tebaldi, C. and Knutti, R.},
+ title = {The use of the multi--model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections},
+ journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical, Physical
+ \& Engineering Sciences},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {365},
+ pages = {2053--2075},
+ number = {1857},
+ abstract = {Recent coordinated efforts, in which numerous climate models have
+ been run for a common set of experiments, have produced large datasets
+ of projections of future climate for various scenarios. Those multi-model
+ ensembles sample initial condition, parameter as well as structural
+ uncertainties in the model design, and they have prompted a variety
+ of approaches to quantify uncertainty in future climate in a probabilistic
+ way. This paper outlines the motivation for using multi-model ensembles,
+ reviews the methodologies published so far and compares their results
+ for regional temperature projections. The challenges in interpreting
+ multi-model results, caused by the lack of verification of climate
+ projections, the problem of model dependence, bias and tuning as
+ well as the difficulty in making sense of an ‘ensemble of opportunity’,
+ are discussed in detail},
+ doi = {10.1098/rsta.2007.2076},
+ pmid = {17569654},
+ tags = {Multimodel - Ensambles}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{tebaldi+al2005,
+ author = {Tebaldi, C. and Smith, R. and Nychka, D. and Mearns, L.},
+ title = {Quantifying uncertainty in projections of regional climate change:
+ A {B}ayesian approach to the analysis of multi--model ensembles},
+ journal = {Journal of Climate},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {18},
+ pages = {1524--1540},
+ number = {10},
+ abstract = {A Bayesian statistical model is proposed that combines information
+ from a multimodel ensemble of atmosphere–ocean general circulation
+ models (AOGCMs) and observations to determine probability distributions
+ of future temperature change on a regional scale. The posterior distributions
+ derived from the statistical assumptions incorporate the criteria
+ of bias and convergence in the relative weights implicitly assigned
+ to the ensemble members. This approach can be considered an extension
+ and elaboration of the reliability ensemble averaging method. For
+ illustration, the authors consider the output of mean surface temperature
+ from nine AOGCMs, run under the A2 emission scenario from the Synthesis
+ Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), for boreal winter and summer,
+ aggregated over 22 land regions and into two 30-yr averages representative
+ of current and future climate conditions. The shapes of the final
+ probability density functions of temperature change vary widely,
+ from unimodal curves for regions where model results agree (or outlying
+ projections are discounted) to multimodal curves where models that
+ cannot be discounted on the basis of bias give diverging projections.
+ Besides the basic statistical model, the authors consider including
+ correlation between present and future temperature responses, and
+ test alternative forms of probability distributions for the model
+ error terms. It is suggested that a probabilistic approach, particularly
+ in the form of a Bayesian model, is a useful platform from which
+ to synthesize the information from an ensemble of simulations. The
+ probability distributions of temperature change reveal features such
+ as multimodality and long tails that could not otherwise be easily
+ discerned. Furthermore, the Bayesian model can serve as an interdisciplinary
+ tool through which climate modelers, climatologists, and statisticians
+ can work more closely. For example, climate modelers, through their
+ expert judgment, could contribute to the formulations of prior distributions
+ in the statistical model.},
+ doi = {10.1175/JCLI3363.1},
+ tags = {Multimodel - Ensambles}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{teegavarapuchandramouli2005,
+ author = {Teegavarapu, R. and Chandramouli, V.},
+ title = {Improved weighting methods, deterministic and stochastic data--driven
+ models for estimation of missing precipitation records},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {312},
+ pages = {191},
+ number = {1--4},
+ abstract = {Distance-weighted and data-driven methods are extensively used for
+ estimation of missing rainfall data. Inverse distance weighting method
+ (IDWM) is one of the most frequently used methods for estimating
+ missing rainfall values at a gage based on values recorded at all
+ other available recording gages. In spite of the method's wide success
+ and acceptability, it suffers from major conceptual limitations.
+ Conceptual improvements are incorporated in the IDWM method that
+ led to several modified distance-based methods. A data-driven model
+ that uses artificial neural network concepts and a stochastic interpolation
+ technique, kriging, are also developed and tested in the current
+ study. These methods are tested for estimation of missing precipitation
+ data. Historical precipitation data from 20 rain-gauging stations
+ in the state of Kentucky, USA, are used to test the improvised methods
+ and derive conclusions about the efficacy of incorporated improvements.
+ Results suggest that the conceptual revisions can improve estimation
+ of missing precipitation records by defining better weighting parameters
+ and surrogate measures for distances that are used in the IDWM.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.02.015},
+ keywords = {Missing rainfall data, Inverse distance weighting method, Thiessen
+ polygon method, Geometric patterns, Weighting schemes, Kriging, Artificial
+ neural networks, Kentucky, USA},
+ tags = {Rainfall}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{terink+al2010,
+ author = {Terink, W. and Hurkmans, R. and Torfs, P. and Uijlenhoet, R.},
+ title = {Evaluation of a bias correction method applied to downscaled precipitation
+ and temperature reanalysis data for the {R}hine basin},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {14},
+ pages = {684--703},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {In many climate impact studies hydrological models are forced with
+ meteorological data without an attempt to assess the quality of these
+ data. The objective of this study is to compare downscaled ERA15
+ (ECMWF-reanalysis data) precipitation and temperature with observed
+ precipitation and temperature and apply a bias correction to these
+ forcing variables. Precipitation is corrected by fitting the mean
+ and coefficient of variation (CV) of the observations. Temperature
+ is corrected by fitting the mean and standard deviation of the observations.
+ It appears that the uncorrected ERA15 is too warm and too wet for
+ most of the Rhine basin. The bias correction leads to satisfactory
+ results, precipitation and temperature differences decreased significantly,
+ although there are a few years for which the correction of precipitation
+ is less satisfying. Corrections were largest during summer for both
+ precipitation and temperature, and for September and October for
+ precipitation only. Besides the statistics the correction method
+ was intended to correct for, it is also found to improve the correlations
+ for the fraction of wet days and lag-1 autocorrelations between ERA15
+ and the observations. For the validation period temperature is corrected
+ very well, but for precipitation the RMSE of the daily difference
+ between modeled and observed precipitation has increased for the
+ corrected situation. When taking random years for calibration, and
+ the remaining years for validation, the spread in the mean bias error
+ (MBE) becomes larger for the corrected precipitation during validation,
+ but the overal average MBE has decreased.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-14-687-2010},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.07.29}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{terink+al2009,
+ author = {Terink, W. and Hurkmans, R. and Torfs, P. and Uijlenhoet, R.},
+ title = {Bias correction of temperature and precipitation data for regional
+ climate model application to the {R}hine basin},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {6},
+ pages = {5377--5413},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {In many climate impact studies hydrological models are forced with
+ meteorological forcing data without an attempt to assess the quality
+ of these forcing data. The objective of this study is to compare
+ downscaled ERA15 (ECMWF-reanalysis data) precipitation and temperature
+ with observed precipitation and temperature and apply a bias correction
+ to these forcing variables. The bias-corrected precipitation and
+ temperature data will be used in another study as input for the Variable
+ Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Observations were available for
+ 134 sub-basins throughout the Rhine basin at a temporal resolution
+ of one day from the International Commission for the Hydrology of
+ the Rhine basin (CHR). Precipitation is corrected by fitting the
+ mean and coefficient of variation (CV) of the observations. Temperature
+ is corrected by fitting the mean and standard deviation of the observations.
+ It seems that the uncorrected ERA15 is too warm and too wet for most
+ of the Rhine basin. The bias correction leads to satisfactory results,
+ precipitation and temperature differences decreased significantly.
+ Corrections were largest during summer for both precipitation and
+ temperature, and for September and October for precipitation only.
+ Besides the statistics the correction method was intended to correct
+ for, it is also found to improve the correlations for the fraction
+ of wet days and lag-1 autocorrelations between ERA15 and the observations.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hessd-6-5377-2009},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.07.29}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{teutschbeinSeibert2010,
+ author = {Teutschbein, C. and Seibert, J.},
+ title = {Regional climate models for hydrological impact studies at the catchment
+ scale: {A} review of recent model strategies},
+ journal = {Geography Compass},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {4},
+ pages = {834--860},
+ number = {7},
+ abstract = {This article reviews recent applications of regional climate model
+ (RCM) output for hydrological impact studies. Traditionally, simulations
+ of global climate models (GCMs) have been the basis of impact studies
+ in hydrology. Progress in regional climate modeling has recently
+ made the use of RCM data more attractive, although the application
+ of RCM simulations is challenging due to often considerable biases.
+ The main modeling strategies used in recent studies can be classified
+ into (i) very simple constructed modeling chains with a single RCM
+ (S-RCM approach) and (ii) highly complex and computing-power intensive
+ model systems based on RCM ensembles (E-RCM approach). In the literature
+ many examples for S-RCM can be found, while comprehensive E-RCM studies
+ with consideration of several sources of uncertainties such as different
+ greenhouse gas emission scenarios, GCMs, RCMs and hydrological models
+ are less common. Based on a case study using control-run simulations
+ of fourteen different RCMs for five Swedish catchments, the biases
+ of and the variability between different RCMs are demonstrated. We
+ provide a short overview of possible bias-correction methods and
+ show that inter-RCM variability also has substantial consequences
+ for hydrological impact studies in addition to other sources of uncertainties
+ in the modeling chain. We propose that due to model bias and inter-model
+ variability, the S-RCM approach is not advised and ensembles of RCM
+ simulations (E-RCM) should be used. The application of bias-correction
+ methods is recommended, although one should also be aware that the
+ need for bias corrections adds significantly to uncertainties in
+ modeling climate change impacts.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1749-8198.2010.00357.x},
+ tags = {Multimodel - Ensambles, Uncertainty, Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{themessl+al2010,
+ author = {Theme{\ss}l, M. and Gobiet, A. and Leuprecht, A.},
+ title = {Empirical-statistical downscaling and error correction of daily precipitation
+ from regional climate models},
+ journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {31},
+ pages = {1530--1544},
+ number = {10},
+ abstract = {Although regional climate models (RCMs) are powerful tools for describing
+ regional and even smaller scale climate conditions, they still feature
+ severe systematic errors. In order to provide optimized climate scenarios
+ for climate change impact research, this study merges linear and
+ nonlinear empirical-statistical downscaling techniques with bias
+ correction methods and investigates their ability for reducing RCM
+ error characteristics. An ensemble of seven empirical-statistical
+ downscaling and error correction methods (DECMs) is applied to post-process
+ daily precipitation sums of a high-resolution regional climate hindcast
+ simulation over the Alpine region, their error characteristics are
+ analysed and compared to the raw RCM results. Drastic reductions
+ in error characteristics due to application of DECMs are demonstrated.
+ Direct point-wise methods like quantile mapping and local intensity
+ scaling as well as indirect spatial methods as nonlinear analogue
+ methods yield systematic improvements in median, variance, frequency,
+ intensity and extremes of daily precipitation. Multiple linear regression
+ methods, even if optimized by predictor selection, transformation
+ and randomization, exhibit significant shortcomings for modelling
+ daily precipitation due to their linear framework. Comparing the
+ well-performing methods to each other, quantile mapping shows the
+ best performance, particularly at high quantiles, which is advantageous
+ for applications related to extreme precipitation events. The improvements
+ are obtained regardless of season and region, which indicates the
+ potential transferability of these methods to other regions.},
+ doi = {10.1002/joc.2168},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.18}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{thiemann+al2001,
+ author = {Thiemann, M. and Trosset, M. and Gupta, H. and Sorooshian, S.},
+ title = {Bayesian Recursive Parameter Estimation For Hydrologic Models},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {37},
+ pages = {2521},
+ abstract = {The uncertainty in a given hydrologic prediction is the compound effect
+ of the parameter, data, and structural uncertainties associated with
+ the underlying model. In general, therefore, the confidence in a
+ hydrologic prediction can be improved by reducing the uncertainty
+ associated with the parameter estimates. However, the classical approach
+ to doing this via model calibration typically requires that considerable
+ amounts of data be collected and assimilated before the model can
+ be used. This limitation becomes immediately apparent when hydrologic
+ predictions must be generated for a previously ungauged watershed
+ that has only recently been instrumented. This paper presents the
+ framework for a Bayesian recursive estimation approach to hydrologic
+ prediction that can be used for simultaneous parameter estimation
+ and prediction in an operational setting. The prediction is described
+ in terms of the probabilities associated with different output values.
+ The uncertainty associated with the parameter estimates is updated
+ (reduced) recursively, resulting in smaller prediction uncertainties
+ as measurement data are successively assimilated. The effectiveness
+ and efficiency of the method are illustrated in the context of two
+ models: a simple unit hydrograph model and the more complex Sacramento
+ soil moisture accounting model, using data from the Leaf River basin
+ in Mississippi.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2000WR900405},
+ tags = {Calibration, Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{thiemig+al2010,
+ author = {Thiemig, V. and Pappenberger, F. and Thielen, J. and Gadian, H. and
+ {de Roo}, A. and Bodis, K. and {del Medico}, M. and Muthusi, F.},
+ title = {Ensemble flood forecasting in {Africa}: {A} feasibility study in
+ the {Juba-Shabelle} river basin},
+ journal = {Atmospheric Science Letters},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {11},
+ pages = {123--131},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {The European flood alert system (EFAS) achieves early flood warnings
+ for large to mediumsize river basins with lead times of 10 days.
+ This is based on probabilistic weather forecasts, the exceedance
+ of alert thresholds and persistence. The methodologies have been
+ tested for different events and time scales in mid-latitude basins
+ in Europe. In this article, the transferability of the EFAS-methodologies
+ to equatorial African basins is assessed with the analysis of the
+ Juba-Shabelle river basin as an example using a variety of different
+ meteorological data sources. In this context, ERA-40 and CHARM have
+ been used for the calculation of climatologies; re-forecasts of the
+ current operational European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
+ model provided hindcasts of historic flood events. The results show
+ that flood events have been detected successfully in more than 85%
+ of all cases, with a high accuracy in terms of timing and magnitude.},
+ doi = {10.1002/asl.266},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.08.10}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{thiemig+al2012,
+ author = {Thiemig, V. and Rojas, R. and {Zambrano-Bigiarini}, M. and Levizzani,
+ V. and {de Roo}, A.},
+ title = {Validation of Satellite-Based Precipitation Products Over Sparsely-Gauged
+ African River Basins},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
+ year = {2012},
+ volume = {in press},
+ doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-12-032.1},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.07.31}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{thodsen2007,
+ author = {Thodsen, H.},
+ title = {The influence of climate change on stream flow in {D}anish rivers},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {333},
+ pages = {226--238},
+ number = {2--4},
+ abstract = {The influence of climate change on river discharges in five major
+ Danish rivers divided into 29 sub-catchments is investigated for
+ the future period of 2071--2100. Climate changes are modelled by
+ the HIRHAM regional climate model on the basis of the IPCC A2 scenario.
+ A hydrological model (NAM) is used to convert precipitation to river
+ discharges. Difficulties are found in the direct use of climate model
+ generated precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (reference
+ evaporation) because of too many rainy days, deviations from mean
+ annual values of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration from
+ observed values, and poor agreement on seasonality. Therefore climate
+ model generated data is corrected to match observed mean annual values
+ and the mean monthly distribution. Mean annual precipitation is found
+ to increase 7%, potential evapotranspiration to increase 3% and river
+ discharges to increase 12% on average, between a control period (1961--1990)
+ and the future period. Because of increased precipitation from October
+ to March and reduced precipitation from July to September the monthly
+ river discharges are found to increase from December to August and
+ decrease in September and October. Extreme values of precipitation
+ and river discharge are examined and the level of the highest precipitation
+ and the highest river discharge events are estimated to increase.
+ The precipitation amount exceeded 0.1% of all days increases by an
+ average of 7%, the river discharge exceeded 0.1% of all days increases
+ approximately 15%. The 100-year flood is modelled to increase 11%
+ on average},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.08.012},
+ keywords = {NAM model},
+ tags = {Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{thomson+al2005,
+ author = {Thomson, A. and Brown, R. and Rosenberg, N. and Srinivasan, R. and
+ Izaurralde, R.},
+ title = {Climate change impacts for the conterminous {USA}: {A}n integrated
+ assessment: {P}art4. {W}ater {R}esources},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {69},
+ pages = {67--88},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {Global climate change will impact the hydrologic cycle by increasing
+ the capacity of the atmosphere to hold moisture. Anticipated impacts
+ are generally increased evaporation at low latitudes and increased
+ precipitation at middle and high latitudes. General Circulation Models
+ (GCMs) used to simulate climate disagree on whether the U.S. as a
+ whole and its constituent regions will receive more or less precipitation
+ as global warming occurs. The impacts on specific regions will depend
+ on changes in weather patterns and are certain to be complex. Here
+ we apply the suite of 12 potential climate change scenarios, previously
+ described in Part 1, to the Hydrologic Unit Model of the United States
+ (HUMUS) to simulate water supply in the conterminous United States
+ in reference to a baseline scenario. We examine the sufficiency of
+ this water supply to meet changing demands of irrigated agriculture.
+ The changes in water supply driven by changes in climate will likely
+ be most consequential in the semi-arid western parts of the country
+ where water yield is currently scarce and the resource is intensively
+ managed. Changes of greater than ±50% with respect to present day
+ water yield are projected in parts of the Midwest and Southwest U.S.
+ Interannual variability in the water supply is likely to increase
+ where conditions become drier and to decrease under wetter conditions.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10584-005-3610-y},
+ keywords = {SWAT, Climate Change},
+ tags = {application, Climate Change, SWAT}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{thorne2011,
+ author = {Thorne, R.},
+ title = {{Uncertainty in the impacts of projected climate change on the hydrology
+ of a subarctic environment: Liard River basin}},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions},
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {15},
+ pages = {1483--1492},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {Freshwater inputs from the Mackenzie River into the Arctic Ocean contribute
+ to the control of oceanic dynamics and sea ice cover duration. Half
+ of the annual runoff from the Mackenzie River drains from mountainous
+ regions, where the Liard River, with a drainage area of 275 000 km2,
+ is especially influential. The impact of projected atmospheric warming
+ on the discharge of the Liard River is unclear. Here, uncertainty
+ in climate projections associated with GCM structure (2 °C prescribed
+ warming) and magnitude of increases in global mean air temperature
+ (1 to 6 °C) on the river discharge are assessed using SLURP, a well-tested
+ hydrological model. Most climate projections indicate (1) warming
+ in this subarctic environment that is greater than the global mean
+ and (2) an increase in precipitation across the basin. These changes
+ lead to an earlier spring freshet (1 to 12 days earlier), a decrease
+ in summer runoff (up to 22%) due to enhanced evaporation, and an
+ increase in autumn flow (up to 48%), leading to higher annual discharge
+ and more freshwater input from the Liard River to the Arctic Ocean.
+ All simulations project that the subarctic nival regime will be preserved
+ in the future but the magnitude of changes in river discharge is
+ highly uncertain (ranging from a decrease of 3% to an increase of
+ 15% in annual runoff), due to differences in GCM projections of basin-wide
+ temperature and precipitation.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-15-1483-2011},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.21}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{thornton+al2009,
+ author = {Thornton, V. and {van de Steeg}, J. and Notenbaert, A. and Herrero,
+ M.},
+ title = {The impacts of climate change on livestock and livestock systems
+ in developing countries: {A} review of what we know and what we need
+ to know},
+ journal = {Agricultural Systems},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {101},
+ pages = {113--127},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {Despite the importance of livestock to poor people and the magnitude
+ of the changes that are likely to befall livestock systems, the intersection
+ of climate change and livestock in developing countries is a relatively
+ neglected research area. Little is known about the interactions of
+ climate and increasing climate variability with other drivers of
+ change in livestock systems and in broader development trends. In
+ many places in the tropics and subtropics, livestock systems are
+ changing rapidly, and the spatial heterogeneity of household response
+ to change may be very large. While opportunities may exist for some
+ households to take advantage of more conducive rangeland and cropping
+ conditions, for example, the changes projected will pose serious
+ problems for many other households. We briefly review the literature
+ on climate change impacts on livestock and livestock systems in developing
+ countries, and identify some key knowledge and data gaps. We also
+ list some of the broad researchable issues associated with how smallholders
+ and pastoralists might respond to climate change. The agendas of
+ research and development organisations may need adjustment if the
+ needs of vulnerable livestock keepers in the coming decades are to
+ be met effectively.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.agsy.2009.05.002},
+ keywords = {Development, Research, Poverty, Impact, Livestock, Systems, Climate
+ change},
+ tags = {Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{thyer+al1999,
+ author = {Thyer, M. and Kuczera, G. and Bates, B.},
+ title = {Probabilistic optimization for conceptual rainfall-runoff models:
+ {A} comparison of the shuffled complex evolution and simulated annealing
+ algorithms},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1999},
+ volume = {35},
+ pages = {767--773},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {Automatic optimization algorithms are used routinely to calibrate
+ conceptual rainfall-runoff (CRR) models. The goal of calibration
+ is to estimate a feasible and unique (global) set of parameter estimates
+ that best fit the observed runoff data. Most if not all optimization
+ algorithms have difficulty in locating the global optimum because
+ of response surfaces that contain multiple local optima with regions
+ of attraction of differing size, discontinuities, and long ridges
+ and valleys. Extensive research has been undertaken to develop efficient
+ and robust global optimization algorithms over the last 10 years.
+ This study compares the performance of two probabilistic global optimization
+ methods: the shuffled complex evolution algorithm SCE-UA, and the
+ three-phase simulated annealing algorithm SA-SX. Both algorithms
+ are used to calibrate two parameter sets of a modified version of
+ Boughton's [1984] SFB model using data from two Australian catchments
+ that have low and high runoff yields. For the reduced, well-identified
+ parameter set the algorithms have a similar efficiency for the low-yielding
+ catchment, but SCE-UA is almost twice as robust. Although the robustness
+ of the algorithms is similar for the high-yielding catchment, SCE-UA
+ is six times more efficient than SA-SX. When fitting the full parameter
+ set the performance of SA-SX deteriorated markedly for both catchments.
+ These results indicated that SCE-UA's use of multiple complexes and
+ shuffling provided a more effective search of the parameter space
+ than SA-SX's single simplex with stochastic step acceptance criterion,
+ especially when the level of parameterization is increased. Examination
+ of the response surface for the low-yielding catchment revealed some
+ reasons why SCE-UA outperformed SA-SX and why probabilistic optimization
+ algorithms can experience difficulty in locating the global optimum.
+ },
+ doi = {10.1029/1998WR900058},
+ kywords = {SCE, SCE-UA, SA},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{thyer+al2002,
+ author = {Thyer, M. and Kuczera, G. and Wang, Q.},
+ title = {Quantifying parameter uncertainty in stochastic models using the
+ Box–Cox transformation},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {265},
+ pages = {246--257},
+ number = {1–-4},
+ abstract = {The Box–Cox transformation is widely used to transform hydrological
+ data to make it approximately Gaussian. Bayesian evaluation of parameter
+ uncertainty in stochastic models using the Box–Cox transformation
+ is hindered by the fact that there is no analytical solution for
+ the posterior distribution. However, the Markov chain Monte Carlo
+ method known as the Metropolis algorithm can be used to simulate
+ the posterior distribution. This method properly accounts for the
+ nonnegativity constraint implicit in the Box–Cox transformation.
+ Nonetheless, a case study using the AR(1) model uncovered a practical
+ problem with the implementation of the Metropolis algorithm. The
+ use of a multivariate Gaussian jump distribution resulted in unacceptable
+ convergence behaviour. This was rectified by developing suitable
+ parameter transformations for the mean and variance of the AR(1)
+ process to remove the strong nonlinear dependencies with the Box–Cox
+ transformation parameter. Applying this methodology to the Sydney
+ annual rainfall data and the Burdekin River annual runoff data illustrates
+ the efficacy of these parameter transformations and demonstrate the
+ value of quantifying parameter uncertainty.},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00113-0},
+ issn = {0022-1694},
+ keywords = {Lag-one autoregressive models}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{thyer+al2011,
+ author = {Mark Thyer and Michael Leonard and Dmitri Kavetski and Stephen Need
+ and Benjamin Renard},
+ title = {The open source RFortran library for accessing R from Fortran, with
+ applications in environmental modelling},
+ journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software},
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {26},
+ pages = {219--234},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {The open source RFortran library is introduced as a convenient tool
+ for accessing the functionality and packages of the R programming
+ language from Fortran programs. It significantly enhances Fortran
+ programming by providing a set of easy-to-use functions that enable
+ access to R′s very rapidly growing statistical, numerical and visualization
+ capabilities, and support a richer and more interactive model development,
+ debugging and analysis setup. RFortran differs from current approaches
+ that require calling Fortran Dynamic link libraries (DLL) from R,
+ and instead enables the Fortran program to transfer data to/from
+ R and invoke R-based procedures via the R command interpreter. More
+ generally, RFortran obviates the need to re-organize Fortran code
+ into DLLs callable from R, or to re-write existing R packages in
+ Fortran, or to jointly compile their Fortran code with the R language
+ itself. Code snippets illustrate the basic transfer of data and commmands
+ to and from R using RFortran, while two case studies discuss its
+ advantages and limitations in realistic environmental modelling applications.
+ These case studies include the generation of automated and interactive
+ inference diagnostics in hydrological model calibration, and the
+ integration of R statistical packages into a Fortran-based numerical
+ quadrature code for joint probability analysis of coastal flooding
+ using numerical hydraulic models. Currently, RFortran uses the Component
+ Object Model (COM) interface for data/command transfer and is supported
+ on the Microsoft Windows operating system and the Intel and Compaq
+ Visual Fortran compilers. Extending its support to other operating
+ systems and compilers is planned for the future. We hope that RFortran
+ expedites method and software development for scientists and engineers
+ with primary programming expertise in Fortran, but who wish to take
+ advantage of R′s extensive statistical, mathematical and visualization
+ packages by calling them from their Fortran code. Further information
+ can be found at www.rfortran.org.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.05.007},
+ issn = {1364--8152},
+ keywords = {R}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{thyer+al2009,
+ author = {Thyer, M. and Renard, B. and Kavetski, D. and Kuczera, G. and Franks,
+ S. and Srikanthan, S.},
+ title = {Critical evaluation of parameter consistency and predictive uncertainty
+ in hydrological modeling: A case study using Bayesian total error
+ analysis},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {45},
+ number = {W00B14},
+ abstract = {The lack of a robust framework for quantifying the parametric and
+ predictive uncertainty of conceptual rainfallâ€runoff (CRR) models
+ remains a key challenge in hydrology. The Bayesian total error analysis
+ (BATEA) methodology provides a comprehensive framework to hypothesize,
+ infer, and evaluate probability models describing input, output,
+ and model structural error. This paper assesses the ability of BATEA
+ and standard calibration approaches (standard least squares (SLS)
+ and weighted least squares (WLS)) to address two key requirements
+ of uncertainty assessment: (1) reliable quantification of predictive
+ uncertainty and (2) reliable estimation of parameter uncertainty.
+ The case study presents a challenging calibration of the lumped GR4J
+ model to a catchment with ephemeral responses and large rainfall
+ gradients. Postcalibration diagnostics, including checks of predictive
+ distributions using quantileâ€quantile analysis, suggest that while
+ still far from perfect, BATEA satisfied its assumed probability models
+ better than SLS and WLS. In addition, WLS/SLS parameter estimates
+ were highly dependent on the selected rain gauge and calibration
+ period. This will obscure potential relationships between CRR parameters
+ and catchment attributes and prevent the development of meaningful
+ regional relationships. Conversely, BATEA provided consistent, albeit
+ more uncertain, parameter estimates and thus overcomes one of the
+ obstacles to parameter regionalization. However, significant departures
+ from the calibration assumptions remained even in BATEA, e.g., systematic
+ overestimation of predictive uncertainty, especially in validation.
+ This is likely due to the inferred rainfall errors compensating for
+ simplified treatment of model structural error.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2008WR006825},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.09.13}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{tiedeman2004,
+ author = {Tiedeman, C. and Ely, D. and Hill, M. and {O'Brien}, G.},
+ title = {A method for evaluating the importance of system state observations
+ to model predictions, with application to the {D}eath {V}alley regional
+ groundwater flow system},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {40},
+ pages = {W12411},
+ abstract = {We develop a new observation-prediction (OPR) statistic for evaluating
+ the importance of system state observations to model predictions.
+ The OPR statistic measures the change in prediction uncertainty produced
+ when an observation is added to or removed from an existing monitoring
+ network, and it can be used to guide refinement and enhancement of
+ the network. Prediction uncertainty is approximated using a first-order
+ second-moment method. We apply the OPR statistic to a model of the
+ Death Valley regional groundwater flow system (DVRFS) to evaluate
+ the importance of existing and potential hydraulic head observations
+ to predicted advective transport paths in the saturated zone underlying
+ Yucca Mountain and underground testing areas on the Nevada Test Site.
+ Important existing observations tend to be far from the predicted
+ paths, and many unimportant observations are in areas of high observation
+ density. These results can be used to select locations at which increased
+ observation accuracy would be beneficial and locations that could
+ be removed from the network. Important potential observations are
+ mostly in areas of high hydraulic gradient far from the paths. Results
+ for both existing and potential observations are related to the flow
+ system dynamics and coarse parameter zonation in the DVRFS model.
+ If system properties in different locations are as similar as the
+ zonation assumes, then the OPR results illustrate a data collection
+ opportunity whereby observations in distant, high-gradient areas
+ can provide information about properties in flatter-gradient areas
+ near the paths. If this similarity is suspect, then the analysis
+ produces a different type of data collection opportunity involving
+ testing of model assumptions critical to the OPR results.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2004WR003313},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.02.12}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{tiedeman1998,
+ author = {Tiedeman, C. and Goode, D. and Hsieh, P.},
+ title = {Characterizing a ground water basin in a {New England} mountain and
+ valley terrain},
+ journal = {Ground Water},
+ year = {1998},
+ volume = {36},
+ pages = {611--620},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {A ground water basin is defined as the volume of subsurface through
+ which ground water flows from the water table to a specified discharge
+ location. Delineating the topographically defined surface water basin
+ and extending it vertically downward does not always define the ground
+ water basin. Instead, a ground water basin is more appropriately
+ delineated by tracking ground water flowpaths with a calibrated,
+ three-dimensional ground water flow model. To determine hydrologic
+ and chemical budgets of the basin, it is also necessary to quantify
+ flow through each hydrogeologic unit in the basin. In particular,
+ partitioning ground water flow through unconsolidated deposits versus
+ bedrock is of significant interest to hillslope hydrologic studies.
+ To address these issues, a model is developed and calibrated to simulate
+ ground water flow through glacial deposits and fractured crystalline
+ bedrock in the vicinity of Mirror Lake, New Hampshire. Tracking of
+ ground water flowpaths suggests that Mirror Lake and its inlet streams
+ drain a ground water recharge area that is about 1.5 times the area
+ of the surface water basin. Calculation of the ground water budget
+ suggests that, of the recharge that enters the Mirror Lake ground
+ water basin, about 40% travels through the basin along flowpaths
+ that stay exclusively in the glacial deposits, and about 60% travels
+ along flowpaths that involve movement in bedrock.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1745-6584.1998.tb02835.x},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.02.12}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{tiedeman1997,
+ author = {Tiedeman, C. and Goode, D. and Hsieh, P.},
+ title = {Numerical simulation of ground--water flow through glacial deposits
+ and crystalline bedrock in the {M}irror {L}ake area, {G}rafton {C}ounty,
+ {N}ew {H}ampshire},
+ institution = {United States Geological Survey},
+ year = {1997},
+ type = {Professional Paper},
+ number = {1572},
+ address = {U.S., Reston, Virginia.},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.02.12}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{tiedeman2003,
+ author = {Tiedeman, C. and Hill, M. and {D'Agnese}, F. and Faunt, C.},
+ title = {Methods for using groundwater model predictions to guide hydrogeologic
+ data collection, with application to the {D}eath {V}alley regional
+ groundwater flow system},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {39},
+ pages = {1010--1027},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {Calibrated models of groundwater systems can provide substantial information
+ for guiding data collection. This work considers using such models
+ to guide hydrogeologic data collection for improving model predictions
+ by identifying model parameters that are most important to the predictions.
+ Identification of these important parameters can help guide collection
+ of field data about parameter values and associated flow system features
+ and can lead to improved predictions. Methods for identifying parameters
+ important to predictions include prediction scaled sensitivities
+ (PSS), which account for uncertainty on individual parameters as
+ well as prediction sensitivity to parameters, and a new “value of
+ improved information†(VOII) method presented here, which includes
+ the effects of parameter correlation in addition to individual parameter
+ uncertainty and prediction sensitivity. In this work, the PSS and
+ VOII methods are demonstrated and evaluated using a model of the
+ Death Valley regional groundwater flow system. The predictions of
+ interest are advective transport paths originating at sites of past
+ underground nuclear testing. Results show that for two paths evaluated
+ the most important parameters include a subset of five or six of
+ the 23 defined model parameters. Some of the parameters identified
+ as most important are associated with flow system attributes that
+ do not lie in the immediate vicinity of the paths. Results also indicate
+ that the PSS and VOII methods can identify different important parameters.
+ Because the methods emphasize somewhat different criteria for parameter
+ importance, it is suggested that parameters identified by both methods
+ be carefully considered in subsequent data collection efforts aimed
+ at improving model predictions.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2001WR001255},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.02.12}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{tierney1994,
+ author = {Tierney, L.},
+ title = {Markov chains for exploring posterior distributions},
+ journal = {The Annals of Statistics},
+ year = {1994},
+ volume = {22},
+ pages = {1701--1728},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {Several Markov chain methods are available for sampling from a poste-
+ rior distribution. Two important examples are the Gibbs sampler and
+ the Metropolis algorithm. In addition, several strategies are available
+ for con- structing hybrid algorithms. This paper outlines some of
+ the basic methods and strategies and discusses some related theoretical
+ and practical issues. On the theoretical side, results from the theory
+ of general state space Markov chains can be used to obtain convergence
+ rates, laws of large numbers and central limit theorems for estimates
+ obtained from Markov chain methods. These theoretical results can
+ be used to guide the construction of more effi- cient algorithms.
+ For the practical use of Markov chain methods, standard simulation
+ methodology provides several variance reduction techniques and also
+ gives guidance on the choice of sample size and allocation.},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ refid = {TIERNEY1994},
+ timestamp = {2008.11.04},
+ url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2242477}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{todini2007,
+ author = {Todini, E. and Mantovan, P.},
+ title = {Commnet on ``{O}n undermining the science?'' by {K}eith {B}even},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {21},
+ pages = {1633--1638},
+ number = {12},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.6670},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.07.16}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{tolson2007,
+ author = {Tolson, B. and Shoemaker, C.},
+ title = {The dynamically dimensional search algorithm for computationally
+ effcient automatic calibration of environmental simulation models},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {43},
+ pages = {1--16},
+ number = {W01413},
+ abstract = {A new global optimization algorithm, dynamically dimensioned search
+ (DDS), is introduced for automatic calibration of watershed simulation
+ models. DDS is designed for calibration problems with many parameters,
+ requires no algorithm parameter tuning, and automatically scales
+ the search to find good solutions within the maximum number of user-specified
+ function (or model) evaluations. As a result, DDS is ideally suited
+ for computationally expensive optimization problems such as distributed
+ watershed model calibration. DDS performance is compared to the shuffled
+ complex evolution (SCE) algorithm for multiple optimization test
+ functions as well as real and synthetic SWAT2000 model automatic
+ calibration formulations. Algorithms are compared for optimization
+ problems ranging from 6 to 30 dimensions, and each problem is solved
+ in 1000 to 10,000 total function evaluations per optimization trial.
+ Results are presented so that future modelers can assess algorithm
+ performance at a computational scale relevant to their modeling case
+ study. In all four of the computationally expensive real SWAT2000
+ calibration formulations considered here (14, 14, 26, and 30 calibration
+ parameters), results show DDS to be more efficient and effective
+ than SCE. In two cases, DDS requires only 15–20% of the number of
+ model evaluations used by SCE in order to find equally good values
+ of the objective function. Overall, the results also show that DDS
+ rapidly converges to good calibration solutions and easily avoids
+ poor local optima. The simplicity of the DDS algorithm allows for
+ easy recoding and subsequent adoption into any watershed modeling
+ application framework.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2005WR004723},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.10.11}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{tonkin2005,
+ author = {Tonkin, M. and Doherty, J.},
+ title = {A hybrid regularized inversion methodology for highly parameterized
+ environmental models},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {41},
+ pages = {W10412},
+ abstract = {A hybrid approach to the regularized inversion of highly parameterized
+ environmental models is described. The method is based on constructing
+ a highly parameterized base model, calculating base parameter sensitivities,
+ and decomposing the base parameter normal matrix into eigenvectors
+ representing principal orthogonal directions in parameter space.
+ The decomposition is used to construct super parameters. Super parameters
+ are factors by which principal eigenvectors of the base parameter
+ normal matrix are multiplied in order to minimize a composite least
+ squares objective function. These eigenvectors define orthogonal
+ axes of a parameter subspace for which information is available from
+ the calibration data. The coordinates of the solution are sought
+ within this subspace. Super parameters are estimated using a regularized
+ nonlinear Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg scheme. Though super parameters
+ are estimated, Tikhonov regularization constraints are imposed on
+ base parameters. Tikhonov regularization mitigates over fitting and
+ promotes the estimation of reasonable base parameters. Use of a large
+ number of base parameters enables the inversion process to be receptive
+ to the information content of the calibration data, including aspects
+ pertaining to small-scale parameter variations. Because the number
+ of super parameters sustainable by the calibration data may be far
+ less than the number of base parameters used to define the original
+ problem, the computational burden for solution of the inverse problem
+ is reduced. The hybrid methodology is described and applied to a
+ simple synthetic groundwater flow model. It is then applied to a
+ real-world groundwater flow and contaminant transport model. The
+ approach and programs described are applicable to a range of modeling
+ disciplines.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2005WR003995},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{tonkin2007,
+ author = {Tonkin, M. and Tiedeman, C. and Ely, D. and Hill, M.},
+ title = {O{PR-PPR, a computer program for assessing data importance to model
+ predictions using linear statistics}},
+ institution = {{U.S. Geological Survey}},
+ year = {2007},
+ type = {{Techniques and Methods 6-E2}},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.02.17}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{trelea2003,
+ author = {Trelea, I.},
+ title = {The particle swarm optimization algorithm: convergence analysis and
+ parameter selection},
+ journal = {Information Processing Letters},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {85},
+ pages = {317--325},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {The particle swarm optimization algorithm is analyzed using standard
+ results from the dynamic system theory. Graphical parameter selection
+ guidelines are derived. The exploration{--}exploitation tradeoff
+ is discussed and illustrated. Examples of performance on benchmark
+ functions superior to previously published results are give},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0020-0190(02)00447-7 },
+ keywords = {Particle swarm optimization, Stochastic optimization, Analysis of
+ algorithms, Parallel algorithms},
+ tags = {PSO}
+}
+
+@INCOLLECTION{trenberth+al2007,
+ author = {Trenberth, K. and Jones, P. and Ambenje, P. and Bojariu, R. and Easterling,
+ D. and Klein, T. and Parker, D. and Rahimzadeh, F. and Renwick, J.
+ and Rusticucci, M. and Soden, B. and Zhai, P.},
+ title = {Observations: {S}urface and atmospheric climate change},
+ booktitle = {Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of
+ Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
+ Panel on Climate Change},
+ publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
+ year = {2007},
+ editor = {S. Solomon and D. Qin and M. Manning and Z. Chen and M. Marquis and
+ K.B. Averyt and M. Tignor and H.L. Miller},
+ address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
+ tags = {IPCC}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{troldborg2007,
+ author = {Troldborg, L. and Refsgaard, J. and Jensen, K. and Engesgaard, P.},
+ title = {The importance of alternative conceptual models for simulation of
+ concentrations in a multi--aquifer system},
+ journal = {Hydrogeology Journal},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {15},
+ pages = {843--860},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {Four different conceptual models based on alternative geological interpretations
+ were formulated for a shallow 600 km2 aquifer system in Denmark comprising
+ Quaternary deposits. Each of the four models was calibrated against
+ groundwater heads and discharge measurements through inverse modeling.
+ Subsequently, the transport capabilities of the four models were
+ compared to 32 concentration measurements of environmental tracers
+ (tritium 3H, helium-3 3He, chlorofluorocarbons CFC11, CFC12 and CFC113).
+ The flow simulations showed only minor differences in spatial head
+ distribution associated with alternative conceptualizations despite
+ the complexity of the aquifer system and the significant differences
+ in geological interpretations. The models, however, showed major
+ differences in predictions of the age of the groundwater and environmental
+ tracer concentrations, differences that are seen as an effect of
+ model structure uncertainty, because no additional calibrations to
+ these data were performed. A single conceptualization may be adequate
+ in characterizing the natural behavior of a field system after calibration,
+ because the calibration procedure is able to compensate for errors
+ in the data or in the conceptual model through biased parameter values.
+ However, once extrapolation beyond the calibration base is attempted,
+ different conceptual model formulations result in significantly different
+ results. Consequently, it is crucial to take model conceptual uncertainty
+ into account when making predictions beyond the calibration base.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10040-007-0192-y},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.24}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{tsai2010,
+ author = {Tsai, F. and Li, X.},
+ title = {Reply to comment by {Ming Ye et al. on "Inverse groundwater modeling
+ for hydraulic conductivity estimation using Bayesian model averaging
+ and variance window"}},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {46},
+ pages = {W02802},
+ doi = {10.1029/2009WR008591},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.01.21}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{tsai2008,
+ author = {Tsai, F. and Li, X.},
+ title = {Inverse groundwater modeling for hydraulic conductivity estimation
+ using {B}ayesian model averaging and variance window},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {44},
+ pages = {W09434},
+ abstract = {This study proposes a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method to address
+ parameter estimation uncertainty arising from nonuniqueness in parameterization
+ methods. BMA is able to incorporate multiple parameterization methods
+ for prediction through the law of total probability and to obtain
+ an ensemble average of hydraulic conductivity estimates. Two major
+ issues in applying BMA to hydraulic conductivity estimation are discussed.
+ The first problem is using Occam's window in usual BMA applications
+ to measure approximated posterior model probabilities. Occam's window
+ only accepts models in a very narrow range, tending to single out
+ the best method and discard other good methods. We propose a variance
+ window to replace Occam's window to cope with this problem. The second
+ problem is the Kashyap information criterion (KIC) in the approximated
+ posterior model probabilities, which tends to prefer highly uncertain
+ parameterization methods by considering the Fisher information matrix.
+ With sufficient amounts of observation data, the Bayesian information
+ criterion (BIC) is a good approximation and is able to avoid controversial
+ results from using KIC. This study adopts multiple generalized parameterization
+ (GP) methods such as the BMA models to estimate spatially correlated
+ hydraulic conductivity. Numerical examples illustrate the issues
+ of using KIC and Occam's window and show the advantages of using
+ BIC and the variance window in BMA application. Finally, we apply
+ BMA to the hydraulic conductivity estimation of the “1500-foot†sand
+ in East Baton Rouge Parish, Louisiana.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2007WR006576},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.02.17}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{gensa1996,
+ author = {Tsallis, C. and Stariolo, D.},
+ title = {Generalized simulated annealing},
+ journal = {Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications},
+ year = {1996},
+ volume = {233},
+ pages = {395--406},
+ number = {1-2},
+ abstract = {We discuss and illustrate a new stochastic algorithm (generalized
+ simulated annealing) for computationally finding the global minimum
+ of a given (not necessarily convex) energy/cost function defined
+ in a continuous D-dimensional space. This algorithm recovers, as
+ particular cases, the so-called classical (“Boltzmann machineâ€) and
+ fast (“Cauchy machineâ€) simulated annealings, and turns out to be
+ quicker than both.},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0378-4371(96)00271-3},
+ issn = {0378-4371},
+ keywords = {Simulated annealing}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{uhlenbrook+al1999,
+ author = {Uhlenbrook, S. and Seibert, J. and Leibundgut, C. and Rodhe, A.},
+ title = {Prediction uncertainty of conceptual rainfall-runoff models caused
+ by problems in identifying model parameters and structure},
+ journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
+ year = {1999},
+ volume = {44},
+ pages = {779--797},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {The uncertainties arising from the problem of identifying a representative
+ model structure and model parameters in a conceptual rainfall-runoff
+ model were investigated. A conceptual model, the HBV model, was applied
+ to the mountainous Brugga basin (39.9 kmâ€) in the Black Forest, southwestern
+ Germany. In a first step, a Monte Carlo procedure with randomly generated
+ parameter sets was used for calibration. For a ten-year calibration
+ period, different parameter sets resulted in an equally good correspondence
+ between observed and simulated runoff. A few parameters were well
+ defined (i.e. best parameter values were within small ranges), but
+ for most parameters good simulations were found with values varying
+ over wide ranges. In a second step, model variants with different
+ numbers of elevation and landuse zones and various runoff generation
+ conceptualizations were tested. In some cases, representation of
+ more spatial variability gave better simulations in terms of discharge.
+ However, good results could be obtained with different and even unrealistic
+ concepts. The computation of design floods and low flow predictions
+ illustrated that the parameter uncertainty and the uncertainty of
+ identifying a unique best model variant have implications for model
+ predictions. The flow predictions varied considerably. The peak discharge
+ of a flood with a probability of 0.01 year?1, for instance, varied
+ from 40 to almost 60 mm day?1. It was concluded that model predictions,
+ particularly in applied studies, should be given as ranges rather
+ than as single values.},
+ doi = {10.1080/02626669909492273},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.10.10}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{valery+al2010,
+ author = {Val{\'e}ry, A. and Andr{\'e}assian, V. and Perrin, C.},
+ title = {Regionalization of precipitation and air temperature over high-altitude
+ catchments - learning from outliers},
+ journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {55},
+ pages = {928--940},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {Closing the water balance of mountainous catchments may sometimes
+ become tricky, even before applying a hydrological model. In this
+ paper, we focus on mountainous, snow-affected catchments and try
+ to understand the reasons for the {``}unrealistic{''} hydrological
+ behaviours that they sometimes show: when annual runoff is greater
+ than the annual areal precipitation estimate, something is obviously
+ wrong, but finding the appropriate means to adjust the water balance
+ is far from a trivial matter. This paper aims to improve our knowledge
+ of the water balance of mountainous and snow-affected catchments
+ in two different countries: Sweden and France. We use a simple non-dimensional
+ framework to detect outliers and then propose an regionalization
+ of precipitation and air temperature in order to better estimate
+ inputs over high-altitude catchments. Since we are interested in
+ catchment water balance, we evaluate our regionalized input estimates
+ by comparing them to streamflow measurements. The results are mixed:
+ in Sweden, our approach is successful because it can make most outlier
+ catchments become regular ones; but in France it is disappointing
+ because it does not solve most of the water balance problems identified.
+ However, for both countries, the regionalization approach significantly
+ improves the performance of a rainfall-runoff model at a daily time
+ step.},
+ doi = {10.1080/02626667.2010.504676},
+ keywords = {water balance, altitudinal gradients, precipitation, air temperature,
+ mountainous and snow-affected catchments, biased inputs },
+ tags = {Calibration, Rainfall, Philosophical, Outliers}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{vandersluijs2005,
+ author = {{Van der Sluijs}, J.},
+ title = {Uncertainty as a monster in the science--policy interface: {F}our
+ coping strategies},
+ journal = {Water Science \& Technology},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {52},
+ pages = {87--92},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {Using the metaphor of monsters, an analysis is made of the different
+ ways in which the scientific community responds to uncertainties
+ that are hard to tame. A monster is understood as a phenomenon that
+ at the same moment fits into two categories that were considered
+ to be mutually excluding, such as knowledge versus ignorance, objective
+ versus subjective, facts versus values, prediction versus speculation,
+ science versus policy. Four styles of coping with monsters in the
+ science-policy interface can be distinguished with different degrees
+ of tolerance towards the abnormal: monster-exorcism, monster-adaptation,
+ monster-embracement, and monster-assimilation. Each of these responses
+ can be observed in the learning process over the past decades and
+ current practices of coping with uncertainties in the science policy
+ interface on complex environmental problems. We might see this ongoing
+ learning process of the scientific community of coping with complex
+ systems as a dialectic process where one strategy tends to dominate
+ the field until its limitations and shortcomings are recognized,
+ followed by a rise of one of the other strategies. We now seem to
+ find ourselves in a phase with growing focus on monster assimilation
+ placing uncertainty at the heart of the science-policy and science-society
+ interfaces. Keywords Anomalies; monster theory; uncertainty},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ refid = {VANDERSLUIJS2005},
+ timestamp = {2008.11.04},
+ url = {http://www.iwaponline.com/wst/05206/wst052060087.htm}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{vanliewgarbrecht2003,
+ author = {{Van Liew}, M. and Garbrecht, J.},
+ title = {Hydrologic simulation of the {L}ittle {W}ashita {R}iver Experimental
+ Watershed using {SWAT}},
+ journal = {Journal of the American Water Resources Association},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {39},
+ pages = {413--426},
+ number = {2},
+ month = {April},
+ abstract = {Precipitation and streamflow data from three nested subwatersheds
+ within the Little Washita River Experimental Watershed (LWREW) in
+ southwestern Oklahoma were used to evaluate the capabilities of the
+ Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict streamflow under
+ varying climatic conditions. Eight years of precipitation and streamflow
+ data were used to calibrate parameters in the model, and 15 years
+ of data were used for model validation. SWAT was calibrated on the
+ smallest and largest sub-watersheds for a wetter than average period
+ of record. The model was then validated on a third subwatershed for
+ a range in climatic conditions that included dry, average, and wet
+ periods. Calibration of the model involved a multistep approach.
+ A preliminary calibration was conducted to estimate model parameters
+ so that measured versus simulated yearly and monthly runoff were
+ in agreement for the respective calibration periods. Model parameters
+ were then fine tuned based on a visual inspection of daily hydrographs
+ and flow frequency curves. Calibration on a daily basis resulted
+ in higher baseflows and lower peak runoff rates than were obtained
+ in the preliminary calibration. Test results show that once the model
+ was calibrated for wet climatic conditions, it did a good job in
+ predicting streamflow responses over wet, average, and dry climatic
+ conditions selected for model validation. Monthly coefficients of
+ efficiencies were 0.65, 0.86, and 0.45 for the dry, average, and
+ wet validation periods, respectively. Results of this investigation
+ indicate that once calibrated, SWAT is capable of providing adequate
+ simulations for hydrologic investigations related to the impact of
+ climate variations on water resources of the LWREW.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1752-1688.2003.tb04395.x},
+ keywords = {SWAT, calibration/validation, baseflow separation, modeling/statistics,
+ hydrology, watershed, runoff curve number, climate variability},
+ tags = {SWAT}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{vanwerkhoven+al2008,
+ author = {{Van Werkhoven}, K. and Wagener, T. and Reed, P. and Tang, Y.},
+ title = {Characterization of watershed model behavior across a hydroclimatic
+ gradient},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {44},
+ pages = { W01429},
+ abstract = {A fundamental tradeoff exists in watershed modeling between a model's
+ flexibility for representing watersheds with different characteristics
+ versus its potential for overparameterization. This study uses global
+ sensitivity analysis to investigate how a commonly used intermediate-complexity
+ model, the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (SAC-SMA), represents
+ a wide range of watersheds with diverse physical and hydroclimatic
+ characteristics. The analysis aims to establish a detailed understanding
+ of model behavior across watersheds and time periods with the ultimate
+ objective to guide model calibration and evaluation studies. Sobol's
+ sensitivity analysis is used to evaluate the SAC-SMA in 12 Model
+ Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) watersheds in the US. The
+ watersheds span a wide hydroclimatic gradient from arid to humid
+ systems. Four evaluation metrics reflecting base flows, midrange
+ flows, peak flows, and long-term water balance were used to comprehensively
+ characterize trends in sensitivity and model behavior. Results show
+ significant variation in parameter sensitivities that are correlated
+ with the hydroclimatic characteristics of the watersheds and time
+ periods analyzed. The sensitivity patterns are consistent with the
+ expected dominant processes and demonstrate the need for moderate
+ model complexity to represent different hydroclimatic regimes. The
+ analysis reveals that the primary model controls for some aspects
+ of the simulated hydrograph are different from those typically assumed
+ for the SAC-SMA. Results also show that between 6 and 10 parameters
+ are regularly identifiable from daily hydrologic data, which is about
+ twice the range that is often assumed (i. e., 3 to 5). Synthesized
+ results provide comprehensive SAC-SMA calibration guidance, demonstrate
+ the flexibility of the model for representing multiple hydroclimatic
+ regimes, and highlight the great difficulty in generalizing model
+ behavior across watersheds.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2007WR006271},
+ keywords = {GLOBAL SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS, MOISTURE ACCOUNTING MODEL, RAINFALL-RUNOFF
+ MODELS, HYDROLOGIC-MODELS, AUTOMATIC CALIBRATION, PARAMETER-ESTIMATION,
+ MULTIOBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION, EVOLUTIONARY ALGORITHMS, CATCHMENT MODELS,
+ SACRAMENTO MODEL},
+ tags = {Applications}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{vanhaute+al2012,
+ author = {Vanhaute, W. J. and Vandenberghe, S. and Scheerlinck, K. and De Baets,
+ B. and Verhoest, N. E. C.},
+ title = {Calibration of the modified {B}artlett-{L}ewis model using global
+ optimization techniques and alternative objective functions},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2012},
+ volume = {16},
+ pages = {873-891},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {The calibration of stochastic point process rainfall models, such
+ as of the Bartlett-Lewis type, suffers from the presence of multiple
+ local minima which local search algorithms usually fail to avoid.
+ To meet this shortcoming, four relatively new global optimization
+ methods are presented and tested for their ability to calibrate the
+ Modified Bartlett-Lewis Model. The list of tested methods consists
+ of: the Downhill Simplex Method, Simplex-Simulated Annealing, Particle
+ Swarm Optimization and Shuffled Complex Evolution. The parameters
+ of these algorithms are first optimized to ensure optimal performance,
+ after which they are used for calibration of the Modified Bartlett-Lewis
+ model. Furthermore, this paper addresses the choice of weights in
+ the objective function. Three alternative weighing methods are compared
+ to determine whether or not simulation results (obtained after calibration
+ with the best optimization method) are influenced by the choice of
+ weights.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-16-873-2012},
+ tags = {Calibration, PSO}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{varis+al2004,
+ author = {Varis, O. and Kajander, T. and Lemmela, R.},
+ title = {Climate and water: {F}rom climate models to water resources management
+ and vice versa},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {66},
+ pages = {321--344},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {This article reviews the recent developments in the functional chain
+ from climate models to climate scenarios, through hydrology all the
+ way to water resources management, design and policy making. Although
+ climate models, such as Global Circulation Models (GCMs) continue
+ to evolve, their outputs remain crude and often even inappropriate
+ to watershed-scale hydrological analyses. The bridging techniques
+ are evolving, though. Many families of regionalization technologies
+ are under progress in parallel. Perhaps the most important advances
+ are in the field of regional weather patterns, such as ENSO (El Nino-Southern
+ Oscillation), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and many more. The
+ gap from hydrology to water resources development is by far not that
+ wide. The traditional and contemporary practices are well in place.
+ In climate change studies, the bottleneck is not in this link itself
+ but in the climatic input. The tendency seems to be towards integrated
+ water resources assessments, where climate is only one among many
+ changes that are expected to occur, such as demography, land cover
+ and land use, economy, technologies, and so forth. In such a pragmatic
+ setting a risk-analytic interpretation of those scenarios is often
+ called for. The above-outlined continuum from climate to water is
+ a topic where the physically based modelers, the empiricists and
+ the pragmatists should not get restricted to their own way of thinking.
+ The issues should develop hand in hand. Perhaps the greatest challenge
+ is to incorporate and respect the pragmatic policy-related component
+ to the two other branches. For this purpose, it is helpful to reverse
+ the direction of thinking from time to time to start-instead of climate
+ models-from practical needs and think how the climate scenarios and
+ models help really in the difficult task of designing better water
+ structures, outline better policies and formulate better operational
+ rules in the water field.},
+ doi = {10.1023/B:CLIM.0000044622.42657.d4},
+ keywords = {GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL, DAILY PRECIPITATION MODELS, OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE
+ MODEL, HIGH-RESOLUTION, INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY, CONTROL SIMULATIONS,
+ CHANGE SCENARIOS, VAPOR FEEDBACK, UNITED-STATES, GOOD SCIENCE},
+ tags = {Climate Change}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{veijalainen+al2010,
+ author = {Noora Veijalainen and Eliisa Lotsari and Petteri Alho and Bertel
+ Vehviläinen and Jukka Käyhkö},
+ title = {National scale assessment of climate change impacts on flooding in
+ Finland},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {391},
+ pages = {333 - 350},
+ number = {3–4},
+ abstract = {This paper provides a general overview of changes in flooding caused
+ by climate change in Finland for the periods 2010–2039 and 2070–2099.
+ Changes in flooding were evaluated at 67 sites in Finland with variable
+ sizes of runoff areas using a conceptual hydrological model and 20
+ climate scenarios from both global and regional climate models with
+ the delta change approach. Floods with a 100-year return period were
+ estimated with frequency analysis using the Gumbel distribution.
+ At four study sites depicting different watershed types and hydrology,
+ the inundation areas of the 100-year floods were simulated with a
+ 2D hydraulic model. The results demonstrate that the impacts of climate
+ change are not uniform within Finland due to regional differences
+ in climatic conditions and watershed properties. In snowmelt-flood
+ dominated areas, annual floods decreased or remained unchanged due
+ to decreasing snow accumulation. On the other hand, increased precipitation
+ resulted in growing floods in major central lakes and their outflow
+ rivers. The changes in flood inundation did not linearly follow the
+ changes in 100-year discharges, due to varying characteristics of
+ river channels and floodplains. The results highlight the importance
+ of comprehensive climatological and hydrological knowledge and the
+ use of several climate scenarios in estimation of climate change
+ impacts on flooding. Generalisations based on only a few case studies,
+ or large scale flood assessments using only a few climate scenarios
+ should be avoided in countries with variable hydrological conditions.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.035},
+ issn = {0022-1694},
+ keywords = {Climate change}
+}
+
+@CONFERENCE{mads2012,
+ author = {Vesselinov, V. and Harp, D.},
+ title = {{Model analysis and decision support (MADS) for comple physics models}},
+ booktitle = {XIX International Conference on Water Resources - CMWR 2012},
+ year = {2012},
+ address = {Illinois, USA},
+ organization = {University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.09.26}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{squads2012,
+ author = {Vesselinov, V. and Harp, D.},
+ title = {Adaptive hydbrid optimisation strategy for calibration and parameter
+ estimation of physical process models},
+ journal = {Computers \& Geosciences},
+ year = {2012},
+ volume = {in press},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.cageo.2012.05.027},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.09.26}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{vicenteserrano+al2012,
+ author = {{Vicente-Serrano}, S. and {L\'opez-Moreno}, J. and Beguer\'ia, S.
+ and {Lorenzo-Lacruz}, J. and {Azorin-Molina}, C. and {Mor\'an-Tejeda},
+ E.},
+ title = {Accurate computation of streamflow drought index},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrologic Engineering},
+ year = {2012},
+ volume = {17},
+ pages = {318--322},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {In this study, the authors investigated an approach to calculate the
+ standardized streamflow index (SSI), which allows accurate spatial
+ and temporal comparison of the hydrological conditions of a stream
+ or set of streams. For this purpose, the capability of six three-parameter
+ distributions (lognormal, Pearson Type III, log-logistic, general
+ extreme value, generalized Pareto, and Weibull) and two different
+ approaches to select the most suitable distribution the best monthly
+ fit (BMF) and the minimum orthogonal distance (MD), were tested by
+ using a monthly streamflow data set for the Ebro Basin (Spain). This
+ large Mediterranean basin is characterized by high variability in
+ the magnitude of streamflows and in seasonal regimes. The results
+ show that the most commonly used probability distributions for flow
+ frequency analysis provided good fits to the streamflow series. Thus,
+ the visual inspection of the L-moment diagrams and the results of
+ the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test did not enable the selection of a single
+ optimum probability distribution. However, no single probability
+ distribution for all the series was suitable for obtaining a robust
+ standardized streamflow series because each of the distributions
+ had one or more limitations. The BMF and MD approaches improved the
+ results in the expected average, standard deviation, and the frequencies
+ of extreme events of the SSI series in relation to the selection
+ of a unique distribution for each station. The BMF and MD approaches
+ involved using different probability distributions for each gauging
+ station and month of the year to calculate the SSI. Both approaches
+ are easy to apply and they provide very similar results in the quality
+ of the obtained hydrological drought indexes. The proposed procedures
+ are very flexible for analyses involving contrasting hydrological
+ regimes and flow characteristics.},
+ doi = {10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000433},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.07.05}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{vicuna+al2010,
+ author = {Vicuna, S. and Dracup, J. and Lund, J. and Dale, L. and Maurer, E.},
+ title = {Basin--scale water system operations with uncertain future climate
+ conditions: {M}ethodology and case studies},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {46},
+ pages = {W04505},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {The old and useful paradigm used by water resource engineers, that
+ hydrology in a given place is stationary, and hence it is sufficient
+ to look into the past to plan for the future, does not hold anymore,
+ according to climate change projections. This becomes especially
+ true in snow-dominated regions like California, where not only the
+ magnitude but also the timing of streamflow could be affected by
+ changes in precipitation and temperature. To plan and operate water
+ resources systems at the basin scale, it is necessary to develop
+ new tools that are suited for this nonstationary world. In this paper
+ we develop an optimization algorithm that can be used for different
+ studies related to climate change and water resources management.
+ Three applications of this algorithm are developed for the Merced
+ River basin. The first of these gives an assessment of the climate
+ change effects on the operations of this basin considering an adaptive
+ management strategy embedded in the optimization algorithm. In a
+ second application we explore different long-term adaptation strategies
+ intended to mitigate the effects of climate change. A final application
+ is developed to determine how beneficial it is to build a new reservoir
+ considering explicitly the uncertainty about future climate projections.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2009WR007838},
+ tags = {Climate Change, Disturbed Catchments}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{vidalwade2009,
+ author = {Vidal, {J.P.} and Wade, S.},
+ title = {{A multimodel assessment of future climatological droughts in the
+ United Kingdom}},
+ journal = {Journal of Climatology},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {29},
+ pages = {2056--2071},
+ number = {14},
+ abstract = {This paper presents a detailed assessment of future rainfall drought
+ patterns over the United Kingdom. Previously developed bias-corrected
+ high-resolution gridded precipitation time series are aggregated
+ to the scale relevant for water resources management, in order to
+ provide 21st-century time series for 183 hydrologic areas, as computed
+ by six General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two emissions scenarios.
+ The control run data are used as a ‘learning time series’ to compute
+ the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at four different time
+ scales. SPI values for three 30-year future time slices are computed
+ with respect to these learning time series in order to assess the
+ changes in drought frequency. Multimodel results under the A2 scenario
+ show a dramatic increase in the frequency of short-term extreme drought
+ class for most of the country. A decrease of long-term droughts is
+ expected in Scotland, due to the projected increase in winter precipitation.
+ The analysis for two catchment case studies also showed that changes
+ under the B2 scenario are generally consistent with those of the
+ A2 scenario, with a reduced magnitude in changes. The overall increase
+ with time in the spread of individual GCM results demonstrates the
+ utility of multimodel statistics when assessing the uncertainty in
+ future drought indices to be used in long-term water resources planning.},
+ doi = {10.1002/joc.1843},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.07.05}
+}
+
+@INCOLLECTION{viner2003,
+ author = {Viner, D.},
+ title = {A qualitative assessment of the sources of uncertainty in climate
+ change impacts assessment studies},
+ booktitle = {Climatic Change: Implications for the Hydrological Cycle and for
+ Water Management},
+ publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {10},
+ series = {Advances in Global Change Research},
+ pages = {139--149},
+ abstract = {This paper, to be used as a guide by impacts assessors, identifies
+ and then presents a qualitative assessment of the sources of uncertainty
+ that are encapsulated in any climate change impacts assessment. The
+ initial source, that of emissions scenarios derived from socio-economic
+ projections is described and from here the cascade of the probable
+ ranges of uncertainty associated with each step in an impacts assessment
+ study is discussed. This assessment of the sources of uncertainty
+ is coupled to the evolution of the science during the course of the
+ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process. This is
+ used to explain (in specific cases) why certain de facto standards
+ have been adopted in climate change research},
+ doi = {10.1007/0-306-47983-4\_8},
+ tags = {Thesis, Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{LUCHEM-II,
+ author = {Viney, N. and Bormann, H. and Breuer, L. and Bronstert, A. and Croke,
+ B. and Frede, H. and Graff, T. and Hubrechts, L. and Huisman, J.
+ and Jakeman, A. and Kite, G. and Lanini, J. and Leavesley, G. and
+ Lettenmaier, D. and Lindstrom, G. and Seibert, J. and Sivapalan,
+ M. and Willems, P.},
+ title = {Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble
+ modelling {(LUCHEM) II}: {E}nsemble combinations and predictions},
+ journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {32},
+ pages = {147-158},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {This paper reports on a project to compare predictions from a range
+ of catchment models applied to a mesoscale river basin in central
+ Germany and to assess various ensemble predictions of catchment streamflow.
+ The models encompass a large range in inherent complexity and input
+ requirements. In approximate order of decreasing complexity, they
+ are DHSVM, MIKE-SHE, TOPLATS, WASIM-ETH, SWAT, PRMS, SLURP, HBV,
+ LASCAM and IHACRES. The models are calibrated twice using different
+ sets of input data. The two predictions from each model are then
+ combined by simple averaging to produce a single-model ensemble.
+ The 10 resulting single-model ensembles are combined in various ways
+ to produce multi-model ensemble predictions. Both the single-model
+ ensembles and the multi-model ensembles are shown to give predictions
+ that are generally superior to those of their respective constituent
+ models, both during a 7-year calibration period and a 9-year validation
+ period. This occurs despite a considerable disparity in performance
+ of the individual models. Even the weakest of models is shown to
+ contribute useful information to the ensembles they are part of.
+ The best model combination methods are a trimmed mean (constructed
+ using the central four or six predictions each day) and a weighted
+ mean ensemble (with weights calculated from calibration performance)
+ that places relatively large weights on the better performing models.
+ Conditional ensembles, in which separate model weights are used in
+ different system states (e.g. summer and winter, high and low flows)
+ generally yield little improvement over the weighted mean ensemble.
+ However a conditional ensemble that discriminates between rising
+ and receding flows shows moderate improvement. An analysis of ensemble
+ predictions shows that the best ensembles are not necessarily those
+ containing the best individual models. Conversely, it appears that
+ some models that predict well individually do not necessarily combine
+ well with other models in multi-model ensembles. The reasons behind
+ these observations may relate to the effects of the weighting schemes,
+ non-stationarity of the climate series and possible cross-correlations
+ between models.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.advwatres.2008.05.006},
+ owner = {Rodrigo},
+ timestamp = {2009.06.17}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{visser+al2000,
+ author = {Visser, H. and Folkert, R. and Hoekstra, J. and {De Wolff}, J.},
+ title = {Identifying key sources of uncertainty in climate change projections},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2000},
+ volume = {45},
+ pages = {421--457},
+ number = {3--4},
+ abstract = {What sources of uncertainty should be included in climate change projections
+ and what gains can be made if specific sources of uncertainty are
+ reduced through improved research? DIALOGUE, an integrated assessment
+ model, has been used to answer these questions. Central in the approach
+ of DIALOGUE is the concept of parallel modeling, i.e., for each step
+ in the chain from emissions to climate change a number of equivalent
+ models are implemented. The following conclusions are drawn:},
+ doi = {10.1023/A:1005516020996},
+ keywords = {ANTHROPOGENIC SULFATE AEROSOLS, GLOBAL CARBON-CYCLE, SIMPLE-MODEL,
+ SEA-LEVEL, SENSITIVITY, SIMULATIONS, TEMPERATURE, LIFETIME, DIOXIDE,
+ OH},
+ tags = {Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{vogelfennessey1995,
+ author = {Vogel, R. and Fennessey, N.},
+ title = {Flow duration curves {II}: {A} review of applications in water resources
+ planning},
+ journal = {Water Resources Bulletin},
+ year = {1995},
+ volume = {31},
+ pages = {1029--1039},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {A streamflow duration curve illustrates the relationship between the
+ frequency and magnitude of streamflow. Flow duration curves have
+ a long history in the field of water-resource engineering and have
+ been used to solve problems in water-quality management, hydropower,
+ instream flow methodologies, water-use planning, flood control, and
+ river and reservoir sedimentation, and for scientific comparisons
+ of streamflow characteristics across watersheds. This paper reviews
+ traditional applications and provides extensions to some new applications,
+ including water allocation, wasteload allocation, river and wetland
+ inundation mapping, and the economic selection of a water-resource
+ project},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1752-1688.1995.tb03419.x},
+ keywords = {FDC, flow duration curve},
+ tags = {FDC, General Hydrology}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{vogelfennessey1994,
+ author = {Vogel, R. and Fennessey, N.},
+ title = {Flow duration curves {I}: {A} new interpretation and confidence intervals},
+ journal = {Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management},
+ year = {1994},
+ volume = {120},
+ pages = {485--504},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {A flow-duration curve (FDC) is simply the complement of the cumulative
+ distribution function of daily, weekly, monthly (or some other time
+ interval of) streamflow. Applications of FDCs include, but are not
+ limited to, hydropower planning, water-quality management, river
+ and reservoir sedimentation studies, habitat suitability, and low-flow
+ augmentation. Although FDCs have a long and rich history in the field
+ of hydrology, they are sometimes criticized because, traditionally,
+ their interpretation depends on the particular period of record on
+ which they are based. If one considers n individual FDCs, each corresponding
+ to one of the individual n years of record, then one may treat those
+ n annual FDCs in much the same way one treats a sequence of annual
+ maximum or annual minimum streamflows. This new annual-based interpretation
+ enables confidence intervals and recurrence intervals to be associated
+ with FDCs in a nonparametric framework.},
+ doi = {10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(1994)120:4(485)},
+ tags = {FDC, General Hydrology}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{vogelsankarasubramanian2003,
+ author = {Vogel, R. and Sankarasubramanian, A.},
+ title = {Validation of a watershed model without calibration},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {39},
+ pages = {1292},
+ number = {10},
+ abstract = {Traditional approaches for the validation of watershed models focus
+ on the {``}goodness of fit{''} between model predictions and observations.
+ It is possible for a watershed model to exhibit a {``}good{''} fit,
+ yet not accurately represent hydrologic processes; hence {``}goodness
+ of fit{''} can be misleading. Instead, we introduce an approach which
+ evaluates the ability of a model to represent the observed covariance
+ structure of the input (climate) and output (streamflow) without
+ ever calibrating the model. An advantage of this approach is that
+ it is not confounded by model error introduced during the calibration
+ process. We illustrate that once a watershed model is calibrated,
+ the unavoidable model error can cloud our ability to validate (or
+ invalidate) the model. We emphasize that model hypothesis testing
+ (validation) should be performed prior to, and independent of, parameter
+ estimation (calibration), contrary to traditional practice in which
+ watershed models are usually validated after calibrating the model.
+ Our approach is tested using two different watershed models at a
+ number of different watersheds in the United States},
+ doi = {10.1029/2002WR001940},
+ keywords = {rainfall-runoff, catchment model, verification, hypothesis testing,
+ moment diagram},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{voss+al2002,
+ author = {Voss, R. and May, W. and Roeckner, E.},
+ title = {Enhanced resolution modelling study on anthropogenic climate change:
+ changes in extremes of the hydrological cycle},
+ journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {22},
+ pages = {755--777},
+ number = {7},
+ abstract = {Changes in variability and extremes of the hydrological cycle are
+ studied in two 30 year simulations using a general circulation model
+ at high horizontal resolution. The simulations represent the present-day
+ climate and a period in which the radiative forcing corresponds to
+ a doubling of the present-day concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse
+ gases. In most regions and seasons the probability density function
+ of daily precipitation experiences a stretching associated with a
+ higher probability of heavy precipitation events in the warmer climate.
+ Whereas extremely long wet spells show only moderate changes, the
+ extremely long dry spells are extended at middle latitudes over most
+ land areas. At high latitudes the changes in annual maximum river
+ runoff are mainly controlled by changes in snow budget. Eight out
+ of 14 selected major rivers show a statistically significant change
+ in 10 year return values of the annual maximum discharge. In two
+ cases a significant decrease is found and in six cases there is a
+ significant increase.},
+ doi = {10.1002/joc.757},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.08.04}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{vrugt+al2008a,
+ author = {Vrugt, J. and {ter Braak}, C. and Clark, M. and Hyman, J. and Robinson,
+ B.},
+ title = {Treatment of input uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: Doing hydrology
+ backward with {M}arkov {C}hain {M}onte {C}arlo simulation},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {44},
+ pages = {W00B09},
+ abstract = {There is increasing consensus in the hydrologic literature that an
+ appropriate framework for streamflow forecasting and simulation should
+ include explicit recognition of forcing and parameter and model structural
+ error. This paper presents a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)
+ sampler, entitled differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM),
+ that is especially designed to efficiently estimate the posterior
+ probability density function of hydrologic model parameters in complex,
+ high-dimensional sampling problems. This MCMC scheme adaptively updates
+ the scale and orientation of the proposal distribution during sampling
+ and maintains detailed balance and ergodicity. It is then demonstrated
+ how DREAM can be used to analyze forcing data error during watershed
+ model calibration using a five-parameter rainfall-runoff model with
+ streamflow data from two different catchments. Explicit treatment
+ of precipitation error during hydrologic model calibration not only
+ results in prediction uncertainty bounds that are more appropriate
+ but also significantly alters the posterior distribution of the watershed
+ model parameters. This has significant implications for regionalization
+ studies. The approach also provides important new ways to estimate
+ areal average watershed precipitation, information that is of utmost
+ importance for testing hydrologic theory, diagnosing structural errors
+ in models, and appropriately benchmarking rainfall measurement devices.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2007WR006720},
+ keywords = {uncertainty assessment, Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation, surface
+ hydrology, streamflow forecasting, rainfall uncertainty, posterior
+ exploration.},
+ tags = {Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{vrugt+al2008b,
+ author = {Vrugt, J. and {ter Braak}, C. and Gupta, H. and Robinson, B.},
+ title = {Equifinality of formal ({DREAM}) and informal ({GLUE}) {B}ayesian
+ approaches in hydrologic modelling?},
+ journal = {Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {In press},
+ pages = {1011--1026},
+ number = {7},
+ abstract = {In recent years, a strong debate has emerged in the hydrologic literature
+ regarding what constitutes an appropriate framework for uncertainty
+ estimation. Particularly, there is strong disagreement whether an
+ uncertainty framework should have its roots within a proper statistical
+ (Bayesian) context, or whether such a framework should be based on
+ a different philosophy and implement informal measures and weaker
+ inference to summarize parameter and predictive distributions. In
+ this paper, we compare a formal Bayesian approach using Markov Chain
+ Monte Carlo (MCMC) with generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation
+ (GLUE) for assessing uncertainty in conceptual watershed modeling.
+ Our formal Bayesian approach is implemented using the recently developed
+ differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM) MCMC scheme with
+ a likelihood function that explicitly considers model structural,
+ input and parameter uncertainty. Our results demonstrate that DREAM
+ and GLUE can generate very similar estimates of total streamflow
+ uncertainty. This suggests that formal and informal Bayesian approaches
+ have more common ground than the hydrologic literature and ongoing
+ debate might suggest. The main advantage of formal approaches is,
+ however, that they attempt to disentangle the effect of forcing,
+ parameter and model structural error on total predictive uncertainty.
+ This is key to improving hydrologic theory and to better understand
+ and predict the flow of water through catchments.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00477-008-0274-y},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.09.14}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{vrugt+al2009b,
+ author = {Vrugt, J. and {ter Braak}, C. and Gupta, H. and Robinson, B.},
+ title = {Response to comment by {K}eith {B}even on "{E}quifinality of formal
+ ({DREAM}) and informal ({GLUE}) {B}ayesian approaches in hydrologic
+ modeling?"},
+ journal = {Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {23},
+ pages = {1061--1062},
+ number = {7},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00477-008-0284-9},
+ tags = {Calibration, Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{vrugt+al2006c,
+ author = {Vrugt, J. and Clarck, M. and Diks, C. and Duan, Q. and Robinson,
+ B.},
+ title = {Multi--objective calibration of forecast ensembles using {B}ayesian
+ model averaging},
+ journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {33},
+ pages = {1--6},
+ number = {L19817},
+ abstract = {Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) has recently been proposed as a method
+ for statistical postprocessing of forecast ensembles from numerical
+ weather prediction models. The BMA predictive probability density
+ function (PDF) of any weather quantity of interest is a weighted
+ average of PDFs centered on the bias-corrected forecasts from a set
+ of different models. However, current applications of BMA calibrate
+ the forecast specific PDFs by optimizing a single measure of predictive
+ skill. Here we propose a multi-criteria formulation for postprocessing
+ of forecast ensembles. Our multi-criteria framework implements different
+ diagnostic measures to reflect different but complementary metrics
+ of forecast skill, and uses a numerical algorithm to solve for the
+ Pareto set of parameters that have consistently good performance
+ across multiple performance metrics. Two illustrative case studies
+ using 48-hour ensemble data of surface temperature and sea level
+ pressure, and multi-model seasonal forecasts of temperature, show
+ that a multi-criteria formulation provides a more appealing basis
+ for selecting the appropriate BMA model.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2006GL027126},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.02.22}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{vrugt+al2003b,
+ author = {Vrugt, J. and Gupta, H. and Bastidas, L. and Bouten, W. and Sorooshian,
+ S.},
+ title = {Effective and efficient algorithm for multiobjective optimization
+ of hydrologic models},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {39},
+ pages = { 1214},
+ abstract = {Practical experience with the calibration of hydrologic models suggests
+ that any single-objective function, no matter how carefully chosen,
+ is often inadequate to properly measure all of the characteristics
+ of the observed data deemed to be important. One strategy to circumvent
+ this problem is to define several optimization criteria (objective
+ functions) that measure different (complementary) aspects of the
+ system behavior and to use multicriteria optimization to identify
+ the set of nondominated, efficient, or Pareto optimal solutions.
+ In this paper, we present an efficient and effective Markov Chain
+ Monte Carlo sampler, entitled the Multiobjective Shuffled Complex
+ Evolution Metropolis (MOSCEM) algorithm, which is capable of solving
+ the multiobjective optimization problem for hydrologic models. MOSCEM
+ is an improvement over the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis
+ (SCEM-UA) global optimization algorithm, using the concept of Pareto
+ dominance (rather than direct single-objective function evaluation)
+ to evolve the initial population of points toward a set of solutions
+ stemming from a stable distribution (Pareto set). The efficacy of
+ the MOSCEM-UA algorithm is compared with the original MOCOM-UA algorithm
+ for three hydrologic modeling case studies of increasing complexity.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2002WR001746},
+ keywords = {parameter optimization, Markov chain Monte Carlo, multicriteria calibration,
+ population diversity, Pareto ranking, hydrologic models, RAINFALL-RUNOFF
+ MODELS, LAND-SURFACE MODEL, GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION, MULTICRITERIA METHODS,
+ AUTOMATIC CALIBRATION, PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY, CATCHMENT MODELS, MULTIPLE,
+ COMPLEXITY},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{vrugt+al2003a,
+ author = {Vrugt, J. and Gupta, H. and Bouten, W. and Sorooshian, S.},
+ title = {A {S}huffled {C}omplex {E}volution {M}etropolis algorithm for optimization
+ and uncertainty assessment of hydrological model parameters},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {39},
+ pages = {1201},
+ number = {8},
+ abstract = {Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have become increasingly popular
+ for estimating the posterior probability distribution of parameters
+ in hydrologic models. However, MCMC methods require the a priori
+ definition of a proposal or sampling distribution, which determines
+ the explorative capabilities and efficiency of the sampler and therefore
+ the statistical properties of the Markov Chain and its rate of convergence.
+ In this presentation, we present an MCMC sampler entitled the Shuffled
+ Complex Evolution Metropolis algorithm (SCEM-UA), which is well suited
+ to infer the posterior distribution of hydrologic model parameters.
+ The SCEM-UA algorithm is a modified version of the original SCE-UA
+ global optimization algorithm developed by Duan et al. [1992]. Two
+ case studies demonstrate that the adaptive capability of the SCEM
+ algorithm significantly reduces the number of model simulations needed
+ to infer the posterior distribution of the parameters when compared
+ with the traditional Metropolis-Hastings samplers. },
+ doi = {10.1029/2002WR001642},
+ tags = {Calibration, Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{vrugt+al2006a,
+ author = {Vrugt, J. and Gupta, H. and Dekker, S. and Sorooshian, S. and Wagener,
+ T. and Bouten, W.},
+ title = {Application of stochastic parameter optimization to the {S}acramento
+ {S}oil {M}oisture {A}ccounting Model},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {325},
+ pages = {288--307},
+ abstract = {Hydrological models generally contain parameters that cannot be measured
+ directly, but can only be meaningfully inferred by calibration against
+ a historical record of input-output data. While considerable progress
+ has been made in the development and application of automatic procedures
+ for model calibration, such methods have received criticism for their
+ lack of rigor in treating uncertainty in the parameter estimates.
+ In this paper, we apply the recently developed Shuffled Complex Evolution
+ Metropolis algorithm (SCEM-UA) to stochastic calibration of the parameters
+ in the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model (SAC-SMA) model
+ using historical data from the Leaf River in Mississippi. The SCEM-UA
+ algorithm is a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler that provides an
+ estimate of the most likely parameter set and underlying posterior
+ distribution within a single optimization run. In particular, we
+ explore the relationship between the length and variability of the
+ streamflow data and the Bayesian uncertainty associated with the
+ SAC-SMA model parameters and compare SCEM-UA derived parameter values
+ with those obtained using deterministic SCE-UA calibrations. Most
+ significantly, for the Leaf River catchments under study our results
+ demonstrate that most of the 13 SAC-SMA parameters are well identified
+ by calibration to daily streamflow data suggesting that this data
+ contains more information than has previously been reported in the
+ literature. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.10.041},
+ keywords = {hydrologic model, Bayesian statistics, parameter uncertainty, Markov
+ Chain Monte Carlo methods, rainfall-runoff, RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS,
+ HYDROLOGIC-MODELS, AUTOMATIC CALIBRATION, GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION, UNCERTAINTY,
+ CATCHMENTS, MULTIPLE},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{vrugt+al2006b,
+ author = {Vrugt, J. and {O. Nuallain}, B. and Robinson, B. and Bouten, W. and
+ Dekker, S. and Sloot, P.},
+ title = {Application of parallel computing to stochastic parameter estimation
+ in environmental models},
+ journal = {Computers \& Geosciences},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {32},
+ pages = {1139--1155},
+ number = {8},
+ abstract = {Parameter estimation or model calibration is a common problem in many
+ areas of process modeling, both in on-line applications such as real-time
+ flood forecasting, and in off-line applications such as the modeling
+ of reaction kinetics and phase equilibrium. The goal is to determine
+ values of model parameters that provide the best fit to measured
+ data, generally based on some type of least-squares or maximum likelihood
+ criterion. Usually, this requires the solution of a non-linear and
+ frequently non-convex optimization problem. In this paper we describe
+ a user-friendly, computationally efficient parallel implementation
+ of the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM-UA) global optimization
+ algorithm for stochastic estimation of parameters in environmental
+ models. Our parallel implementation takes better advantage of the
+ computational power of a distributed computer system. Three case
+ studies of increasing complexity demonstrate that parallel parameter
+ estimation results in a considerable time savings when compared with
+ traditional sequential optimization runs. The proposed method therefore
+ provides an ideal means to solve complex optimization problems. (c)
+ 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.cageo.2005.10.015},
+ keywords = {optimization, model, hydrology, bird migration, octave, message passing
+ interface, RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS, MULTIOBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION, METROPOLIS
+ ALGORITHM, GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION, GENETIC ALGORITHMS, HYDROLOGIC-MODELS,
+ BIRD MIGRATION, CALIBRATION, MINIMIZATION, SIMULATION},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{vrugtrobinson2007a,
+ author = {Vrugt, J. and Robinson, B.},
+ title = {Improved evolutionary optimization from genetically adaptive multimethod
+ search},
+ journal = {Proceedings of The National Academy of Sciences of The United States
+ of America},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {104},
+ pages = {708--711},
+ abstract = {In the last few decades, evolutionary algorithms have emerged as a
+ revolutionary approach for solving search and optimization problems
+ involving multiple conflicting objectives. Beyond their ability to
+ search intractably large spaces for multiple solutions, these algorithms
+ are able to maintain a diverse population of solutions and exploit
+ similarities of solutions by recombination. However, existing theory
+ and numerical experiments have demonstrated that it is impossible
+ to develop a single algorithm for population evolution that is always
+ efficient for a diverse set of optimization problems. Here we show
+ that significant improvements in the efficiency of evolutionary search
+ can be achieved by running multiple optimization algorithms simultaneously
+ using new concepts of global information sharing and genetically
+ adaptive offspring creation. We call this approach a multialgorithm,
+ genetically adaptive multiobjective, or AMALGAM, method, to evoke
+ the image of a procedure that merges the strengths of different optimization
+ algorithms. Benchmark results using a set of well known multiobjective
+ test problems show that AMALGAM approaches a factor of 10 improvement
+ over current optimization algorithms for the more complex, higher
+ dimensional problems. The AMALGAM method provides new opportunities
+ for solving previously intractable optimization problems.},
+ doi = {10.1073/pnas.0610471104},
+ keywords = {evolutionary search, multiple objectives, optimization problems, Pareto
+ front, GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION, ALGORITHM},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{vrugtrobinson2007b,
+ author = {Vrugt, J. and Robinson, B.},
+ title = {Treatment of uncertainty using ensemble methods: {C}omparison of
+ sequential data assimilation and {B}ayesian model averaging},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {43},
+ pages = {W01411},
+ abstract = {Predictive uncertainty analysis in hydrologic modeling has become
+ an active area of research, the goal being to generate meaningful
+ error bounds on model predictions. State-space filtering methods,
+ such as the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), have shown the most flexibility
+ to integrate all sources of uncertainty. However, predictive uncertainty
+ analyses are typically carried out using a single conceptual mathematical
+ model of the hydrologic system, rejecting a priori valid alternative
+ plausible models and possibly underestimating uncertainty in the
+ model itself. Methods based on Bayesian model averaging (BMA) have
+ also been proposed in the statistical and meteorological literature
+ as a means to account explicitly for conceptual model uncertainty.
+ The present study compares the performance and applicability of the
+ EnKF and BMA for probabilistic ensemble streamflow forecasting, an
+ application for which a robust comparison of the predictive skills
+ of these approaches can be conducted. The results suggest that for
+ the watershed under consideration, BMA cannot achieve a performance
+ matching that of the EnKF method.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2005WR004838},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.07.16}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{vrugt+al2009d,
+ author = {Vrugt, J.A. and Robinson, B.A. and Hyman, J.M.},
+ title = {Self-Adaptive Multimethod Search for Global Optimization in Real-Parameter
+ Spaces},
+ journal = {IEEE Transactions on Evolutionary Computation},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {13},
+ pages = {243-259},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {Many different algorithms have been developed in the last few decades
+ for solving complex real-world search and optimization problems.
+ The main focus in this research has been on the development of a
+ single universal genetic operator for population evolution that is
+ always efficient for a diverse set of optimization problems. In this
+ paper, we argue that significant advances to the field of evolutionary
+ computation can be made if we embrace a concept of self-adaptive
+ multimethod optimization in which multiple different search algorithms
+ are run concurrently, and learn from each other through information
+ exchange using a common population of points. We present an evolutionary
+ algorithm, entitled A Multialgorithm Genetically Adaptive Method
+ for Single Objective Optimization (AMALGAM-SO), that implements this
+ concept of self adaptive multimethod search. This method simultaneously
+ merges the strengths of the covariance matrix adaptation (CMA) evolution
+ strategy, genetic algorithm (GA), and particle swarm optimizer (PSO)
+ for population evolution and implements a self-adaptive learning
+ strategy to automatically tune the number of offspring these three
+ individual algorithms are allowed to contribute during each generation.
+ Benchmark results in 10, 30, and 50 dimensions using synthetic functions
+ from the special session on real-parameter optimization of CEC 2005
+ show that AMALGAM-SO obtains similar efficiencies as existing algorithms
+ on relatively simple unimodal problems, but is superior for more
+ complex higher dimensional multimodal optimization problems. The
+ new search method scales well with increasing number of dimensions,
+ converges in the close proximity of the global minimum for functions
+ with noise induced multimodality, and is designed to take full advantage
+ of the power of distributed computer networks.},
+ doi = {10.1109/TEVC.2008.924428},
+ tags = {Calibration, PSO}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{wohling2008,
+ author = {W\"ohling, T. and Vrugt, J.},
+ title = {Combining multiobjective optimization and {B}ayesian model averaging
+ to calibrate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {44},
+ pages = {W12432},
+ abstract = {Most studies in vadose zone hydrology use a single conceptual model
+ for predictive inference and analysis. Focusing on the outcome of
+ a single model is prone to statistical bias and underestimation of
+ uncertainty. In this study, we combine multiobjective optimization
+ and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to generate forecast ensembles
+ of soil hydraulic models. To illustrate our method, we use observed
+ tensiometric pressure head data at three different depths in a layered
+ vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand. A set of seven different
+ soil hydraulic models is calibrated using a multiobjective formulation
+ with three different objective functions that each measure the mismatch
+ between observed and predicted soil water pressure head at one specific
+ depth. The Pareto solution space corresponding to these three objectives
+ is estimated with AMALGAM and used to generate four different model
+ ensembles. These ensembles are postprocessed with BMA and used for
+ predictive analysis and uncertainty estimation. Our most important
+ conclusions for the vadose zone under consideration are (1) the mean
+ BMA forecast exhibits similar predictive capabilities as the best
+ individual performing soil hydraulic model, (2) the size of the BMA
+ uncertainty ranges increase with increasing depth and dryness in
+ the soil profile, (3) the best performing ensemble corresponds to
+ the compromise (or balanced) solution of the three-objective Pareto
+ surface, and (4) the combined multiobjective optimization and BMA
+ framework proposed in this paper is very useful to generate forecast
+ ensembles of soil hydraulic models.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2008WR007154},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.02.22}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hypres1999,
+ author = {W\"osten, J. and Lilly, A. and {Le Bas}, C.},
+ title = {Development and use of a database of hydraulic properties of European
+ soils},
+ journal = {Geoderma},
+ year = {1999},
+ volume = {90},
+ pages = {169--185},
+ number = {3--4},
+ abstract = {Many environmental studies on the protection of European soil and
+ water resources make use of soil water simulation models. A major
+ obstacle to the wider application of these models is the lack of
+ easily accessible and representative soil hydraulic properties. In
+ order to overcome this apparent lack of data, a project was initiated
+ to bring together the available hydraulic data which resided within
+ different institutions in Europe into one central database. This
+ information was then used to derive a set of pedotransfer functions
+ applicable to studies at a European scale. These pedotransfer functions
+ predict the hydraulic properties from parameters collected during
+ soil surveys and can be a good alternative for costly and time-consuming
+ direct measurement of these properties. A total of 20 institutions
+ from 12 European countries collaborated in establishing the database
+ of Image draulic Image operties of Image uropean Image oils (HYPRES).
+ This database has a flexible relational structure capable of holding
+ a wide diversity of both soil pedological and hydraulic data. As
+ these data were contributed by 20 different institutions it was necessary
+ to standardise both the particle-size and the hydraulic data. A novel
+ similarity interpolation procedure was successfully used to achieve
+ standardization of particle-sizes according to the FAO clay, silt
+ and sand particle-size ranges. Standardization of hydraulic data
+ was achieved by fitting the Mualem-van Genuchten model parameters
+ to the individual ?(h) and K(h) hydraulic properties stored in HYPRES.
+ The HYPRES database contains information on a total of 5521 soil
+ horizons (including replicates). Of these, 4030 horizons had sufficient
+ data to be used in the derivation of pedotransfer functions. Information
+ on both water retention and hydraulic conductivity was available
+ for 1136 horizons whereas 2894 horizons had only information on water
+ retention. Each soil horizon was allocated to one of 11 possible
+ soil textural/pedological classes derived from the six FAO texture
+ classes (five mineral and one organic) and the two pedological classes
+ (topsoil and subsoil) recognised within the 1:1 000 000 scale Soil
+ Geographical Data Base of Europe. Next, both class and continuous
+ pedotransfer functions were developed. By using the class pedotransfer
+ functions in combination with the 1:1 000 000 scale Soil Map of Europe,
+ the spatial distribution of soil water availability within Europe
+ was derived.},
+ doi = {10.1016/s0016-7061(98)00132-3},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.05.12}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{weglarczyk1998,
+ author = {W\k{e}glarczyk, S.},
+ title = {The interdependence and applicability of some statistical quality
+ measures for hydrological models},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {1998},
+ volume = {206},
+ pages = {98--103},
+ number = {1-2},
+ abstract = {There are only a few basic statistical measures of discrepancy between
+ a model and the modelled quantity. All the other quality measures
+ which can be called {`}derivative criteria{'} are mostly dimensionless
+ functions which use a selected basic measure (most often it is the
+ mean squared error of a model, MSE) calculated for the model assessed
+ and another measure calculated for a reference model. For this reason
+ these criteria are interrelated, which is not always sufficiently
+ realized. It is shown that MSE depends on the correlation coefficient
+ between observed and computed values R, another popular measure of
+ model performance. Other often employed criteria: the integral squared
+ error ISE, the special correlation coefficient Rs, the Nash-Sutcliffe
+ efficiency E are also interdependent as they are all based on MSE.
+ Thus, when employing two or more criteria at once, special care should
+ be taken in order not to draw contradictory conclusions, examples
+ of which are given in the paper.},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0022-1694(98)00094-8},
+ keywords = {Model performance, Accuracy criteria, Mean squared error, Correlation
+ coefficient},
+ tags = {Calibration, Goodness-of-Fit}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{wagener+al2001,
+ author = {Wagener, T. and Boyle, D. and Lees, M. and Wheater, H. and Gupta,
+ H. and Sorooshian, S.},
+ title = {A framework for development and application of hydrological models},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {5},
+ pages = {13--26},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {Many existing hydrological modelling procedures do not make best use
+ of available information, resulting in non-minimal uncertainties
+ in model structure and parameters, and a lack of detailed information
+ regarding model behaviour. A framework is required that balances
+ the level of model complexity supported by the available data with
+ the level of performance suitable for the desired application. Tools
+ are needed that make optimal use of the information available in
+ the data to identify model structure and parameters, and that allow
+ a detailed analysis of model behaviour. This should result in appropriate
+ levels of model complexity as a function of available data, hydrological
+ system characteristics and modelling purpose. This paper introduces
+ an analytical framework to achieve this, and tools to use within
+ it, based on a multi-objective approach to model calibration and
+ analysis. The utility of the framework is demonstrated with an example
+ from the field of rainfall-runoff modelling.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-5-13-2001},
+ keywords = {hydrological modelling, multi-objective calibration, model complexity,
+ parameter identifiability},
+ tags = {conceptual model}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{wagenergupta2005,
+ author = {Wagener, T. and Gupta, H.},
+ title = {Model identification for hydrological forecasting under uncertainty},
+ journal = {Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {19},
+ pages = {378--387},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {Methods for the identification of models for hydrological forecasting
+ have to consider the specific nature of these models and the uncertainties
+ present in the modeling process. Current approaches fail to fully
+ incorporate these two aspects. In this paper we review the nature
+ of hydrological models and the consequences of this nature for the
+ task of model identification. We then continue to discuss the history
+ (“The need for more POWER‘’), the current state (“Learning from other
+ fieldsâ€) and the future (“Towards a general frameworkâ€) of model
+ identification. The discussion closes with a list of desirable features
+ for an identification framework under uncertainty and open research
+ questions in need of answers before such a framework can be implemented.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00477-005-0006-5},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{wagener+al2003,
+ author = {Wagener, T. and McIntyre, N. and Lees, M. and Wheater, V and Gupta,
+ H.},
+ title = {Towards reduced uncertainty in conceptual rainfall-runoff modelling:
+ dynamic identifiability analysis},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {17},
+ pages = {455--476},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {Conceptual modelling requires the identification of a suitable model
+ structure and the estimation of parameter values through calibration
+ against observed data. A lack of objective approaches to evaluate
+ model structures and the inability of calibration procedures to distinguish
+ between the suitability of different parameter sets are major sources
+ of uncertainty in current modelling procedures. This paper presents
+ an approach analysing the performance of the model in a dynamic fashion
+ resulting in an improved use of available information. Model structures
+ can be evaluated with respect to the failure of individual components,
+ and periods of high information content for specific parameters can
+ be identified. The procedure is termed dynamic identifiability analysis
+ (DYNIA) and is applied to a model structure built from typical conceptual
+ components. Copyright {\copyright} 2003 John Wiley \& Sons, Ltd.},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.1135},
+ keywords = {conceptual rainfall-runoff models, model structural analysis, parameter
+ identifiability, information content of data, HYDROLOGICAL MODEL,
+ IMPROVED CALIBRATION, DISTRIBUTED MODELS, IDENTIFICATION, PREDICTION,
+ VALIDATION, WATER, EUTROPHICATION, COMPLEXITY, CATCHMENTS},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, conceptual model}
+}
+
+@INCOLLECTION{wagenerwheatergupta2003,
+ author = {T. Wagener and H. S. Wheater and H. V. Gupta},
+ title = {Calibration of watershed models},
+ booktitle = {Identification and evaluation of watershed models},
+ year = {2003},
+ editor = {Q. Duan and H. V. Gupta and R. Turcotte and S. Sorooshian and A.
+ N. Rousseau},
+ optannote = {Wagener,T., Wheater,H.S., Gupta,H.V., Identification and evaluation
+ of watershed models, In: Duan,Q., Gupta,H.V., Turcotte,R., Sorooshian,S.,
+ Rousseau,A.N., editor, Calibration of watershed models, Washington,
+ D.C., American Geophysical Union, 2003, ISBN: 0-8759-0355-X},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@BOOK{wagener+al2004,
+ title = {Rainfall--Runoff modelling in gauged and ungauged catchments},
+ publisher = {Imperial College Press},
+ year = {2004},
+ author = {Wagener, T. and Wheather, H. and Gupta, H.},
+ pages = {300},
+ address = {{L}ondon {UK}},
+ isbn = {1-86094-466-3},
+ tags = {conceptual model}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{wagner1995,
+ author = {Wagner, B.},
+ title = {Sampling design methods for groundwater modeling under uncertainty},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1995},
+ volume = {31},
+ pages = {2581--2591},
+ number = {10},
+ abstract = {A sampling network design model is presented that evaluates the trade-off
+ between the varying costs of different types of data and the contribution
+ of those data to improving model reliability. The methodology couples
+ parameter-estimate and model-prediction uncertainty analyses with
+ optimization to identify the mix of hydrogeologic information (e.g.,
+ head, concentration, and/or hydraulic conductivity measurement locations)
+ that will minimize model prediction uncertainty for a given data
+ collection budget. Two alternative optimization algorithms are presented
+ and compared: a branch-and-bound algorithm and a genetic algorithm.
+ A series of synthetic examples are presented to demonstrate the adaptability
+ of the methodology to different sampling scenarios. The examples
+ reveal two important properties of this network design problem. First,
+ model-parameter and model-prediction uncertainty analyses are important
+ components of the network design methodology because they provide
+ a natural framework for evaluating the cost/information trade-off
+ for different types of data and different sampling network designs.
+ Second, the genetic algorithm can identify near-optimal solutions
+ for a small fraction of the computational effort needed to determine
+ the globally optimal solutions of the branch-and-bound algorithm.},
+ doi = {10.1029/95WR02107},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.02.17}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{walker2003a,
+ author = {Walker, W. and Harremo\"es, P. and Rotmans, J. and {Van der Sluijs},
+ J. and {Van Asselt}, M. and Janssen, P. and {Krayer Von Krauss},
+ M.},
+ title = {Defining uncertainty: {A} conceptual basis for uncertainty management
+ in model--based decision support},
+ journal = {Integrated Assessment},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {4},
+ pages = {5--17},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {The aim of this paper is to provide a conceptual basis for the systematic
+ treatment of uncertainty in model-based decision support activities
+ such as policy analysis, integrated assessment and risk assessment.
+ It focuses on the uncertainty perceived from the point of view of
+ those providing information to support policy decisions (i.e., the
+ modellers’ view on uncertainty) – uncertainty regarding the analytical
+ outcomes and conclusions of the decision support exercise. Within
+ the regulatory and management sciences, there is neither commonly
+ shared terminology nor full agreement on a typology of uncertainties.
+ Our aim is to synthesise a wide variety of contributions on uncertainty
+ in model-based decision support in order to provide an interdisciplinary
+ theoretical framework for systematic uncertainty analysis. To that
+ end we adopt a general definition of uncertainty as being any deviation
+ from the unachievable ideal of completely deterministic knowledge
+ of the relevant system. We further propose to discriminate among
+ three dimensions of uncertainty: location, level and nature of uncertainty,
+ and we harmonise existing typologies to further detail the concepts
+ behind these three dimensions of uncertainty.We propose an uncertainty
+ matrix as a heuristic tool to classify and report the various dimensions
+ of uncertainty, thereby providing a conceptual framework for better
+ communication among analysts as well as between them and policymakers
+ and stakeholders. Understanding the various dimensions of uncertainty
+ helps in identifying, articulating, and prioritising critical uncertainties,
+ which is a crucial step to more adequate acknowledgement and treatment
+ of uncertainty in decision support endeavours and more focused research
+ on complex, inherently uncertain, policy issues.},
+ doi = {10.1076/iaij.4.1.5.16466},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{walker2003b,
+ author = {Walker, W. and Marchau, V.},
+ title = {Dealing with uncertainty in policy analysis and policy making},
+ journal = {Integrated Assessment},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {4},
+ pages = {1--4},
+ number = {1},
+ doi = {10.1076/iaij.4.1.1.16462},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{wallace2012,
+ author = {Wallace, J.},
+ title = {Weather- and climate-related extreme events: Teachable moments},
+ journal = {EOS, Transactions American Geophysical Union},
+ year = {2012},
+ volume = {93},
+ pages = {0096--3941},
+ number = {11},
+ doi = {10.1029/2012EO110004},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.05.24}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{wang2005,
+ author = {Wang, Guiling},
+ title = {Agricultural drought in a future climate: results from 15 global
+ climate models participating in the IPCC 4th assessment},
+ journal = {Climate Dynamics},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {25},
+ pages = {739--753},
+ abstract = {This study examines the impact of greenhouse gas warming on soil moisture
+ based on predictions of 15 global climate models by comparing the
+ after-stabilization climate in the SRESA1b experiment with the pre-industrial
+ control climate. The models are consistent in predicting summer dryness
+ and winter wetness in only part of the northern middle and high latitudes.
+ Slightly over half of the models predict year-round wetness in central
+ Eurasia and/or year-round dryness in Siberia and mid-latitude Northeast
+ Asia. One explanation is offered that relates such lack of seasonality
+ to the carryover effect of soil moisture storage from season to season.
+ In the tropics and subtropics, a decrease of soil moisture is the
+ dominant response. The models are especially consistent in predicting
+ drier soil over the southwest North America, Central America, the
+ Mediterranean, Australia, and the South Africa in all seasons, and
+ over much of the Amazon and West Africa in the June–July–August (JJA)
+ season and the Asian monsoon region in the December–January–February
+ (DJF) season. Since the only major areas of future wetness predicted
+ with a high level of model consistency are part of the northern middle
+ and high latitudes during the non-growing season, it is suggested
+ that greenhouse gas warming will cause a worldwide agricultural drought.
+ Over regions where there is considerable consistency among the analyzed
+ models in predicting the sign of soil moisture changes, there is
+ a wide range of magnitudes of the soil moisture response, indicating
+ a high degree of model dependency in terrestrial hydrological sensitivity.
+ A major part of the inter-model differences in the sensitivity of
+ soil moisture response are attributable to differences in land surface
+ parameterization.},
+ affiliation = {University of Connecticut Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
+ 261 Glenbrook Road, U-2037 Storrs CT 06269 USA},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00382-005-0057-9},
+ issn = {0930-7575},
+ issue = {7},
+ keyword = {Earth and Environmental Science},
+ publisher = {Springer Berlin / Heidelberg}
+}
+
+@BOOK{wang1995,
+ title = {Introduction to groundwater modelling: {F}inite difference and finite
+ element methods},
+ publisher = {Academic Press},
+ year = {1995},
+ author = {Wang, H. and Anderson, M.},
+ pages = {237},
+ address = {San Diego},
+ edition = {Second},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.03.25}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{wang2006,
+ author = {Wang, X. and Frankenberger, E. and Kladivko, E.},
+ title = {Uncertainties in {DRAINMOD} predictions of subsurface drain flow
+ for an Indiana silt loam using the {GLUE} methodology},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {20},
+ pages = {3069--3084},
+ number = {14},
+ abstract = {Good modelling practice requires the incorporation of uncertainty
+ analysis into hydrologic/water quality models. The generalized likelihood
+ uncertainty estimation procedure was used to evaluate the uncertainty
+ in DRAINMOD predictions of daily, monthly, and yearly subsurface
+ drain flow. A variance-based sensitivity analysis technique, the
+ extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test, was used to identify
+ the main sources of prediction uncertainty. The analysis was conducted
+ for the experimental drainage field at the Southeast Purdue Agricultural
+ Center in Indiana. Six years of data were used and the uncertainties
+ in eight model parameters were considered to analyse how uncertainties
+ in input parameters propagate to model outputs. The width of 90%
+ confidence interval bands of drain flow ranged from 0 to 0·6 cm day-1
+ for daily predictions, from 0 to 3·1 cm month-1 for the monthly predictions,
+ and from 7·6 to 12·4 cm year-1 for yearly predictions. Annual drain
+ flow predicted by DRAINMOD fell well within the 90% confidence bounds.
+ Model results were most sensitive to the vertical saturated hydraulic
+ conductivity of the restrictive layer and the lateral hydraulic conductivity
+ of the deepest soil layer, followed by the lateral hydraulic conductivity
+ of the top soil layer and surface micro-storage. Parameter interactions
+ also contributed to the prediction uncertainty.},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.6080},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.12.03}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{wang2007,
+ author = {Wang, Y. and Dietrich, F. and Voss, F. and Pahlow, M.},
+ title = {Identifying and reducing model structure uncertainty based on analysis
+ of parameter interaction},
+ journal = {Advances in Geosciences},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {11},
+ pages = {117--122},
+ number = {11},
+ abstract = {Multi-objective optimization algorithms are widely used for the calibration
+ of conceptual hydrological models. Such algorithms yield a set of
+ Pareto-optimal solutions, reflecting the model structure uncertainty.
+ In this study, a multi-objective optimization strategy is suggested,
+ which aims at reducing the model structure uncertainty by considering
+ parameter interaction within Pareto-optimal solutions. The approach
+ has been used to develop a nested setup of a rainfall-runoff model,
+ which is integrated in a probabilistic meso-/macroscale flood forecasting
+ system. The optimization strategy aided in determining the best combination
+ of a lumped (computationally efficient in operational real time forecasting)
+ and a semi-distributed parameterization of the hydrological model.
+ First results are shown for two subbasins of the Mulde catchment
+ in Germany. The different phenomena of parameter interaction were
+ analysed in this case study to reduce the model structure uncertainties.},
+ doi = {10.5194/adgeo-11-117-2007},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.02.19}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{wang+al2009a,
+ author = {Wang, {Q-J} and Robertson, D. and Haines, C.},
+ title = {A Bayesian network approach to knowledge integration and representation
+ of farm irrigation: 1. Model development},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {45},
+ pages = { W02409},
+ abstract = {The funding for this work was provided by the Victorian Government
+ Water for Growth Initiative through the Goulburn Broken Catchment
+ Management Authority and the Department of Sustainability and Environment.
+ The authors would like to gratefully acknowledge Ken Sampson, David
+ Lawler, and other interviewees for their contribution to the development
+ and validation of the farm irrigation systems model.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2006WR005419},
+ keywords = {WATER-USE EFFICIENCY, NORTHERN VICTORIA, PERENNIAL PASTURE, SALINE
+ WATER, DAIRY FARMS, YIELD, MANAGEMENT, SYSTEMS, BALANCE, TREES},
+ tags = {Irrigation, Disturbed Catchments}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{ward+al2011,
+ author = {Ward, P. J. and de Moel, H. and Aerts, J. C. J. H.},
+ title = {How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods?},
+ journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Science},
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {11},
+ pages = {3181--3195},
+ number = {12},
+ doi = {10.5194/nhess-11-3181-2011}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{wasserman2000,
+ author = {Wasserman, L.},
+ title = {Bayesian model selection and model averaging},
+ journal = {Journal of Mathematical Psychology},
+ year = {2000},
+ volume = {44},
+ pages = {92--107},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {This paper reviews the Bayesian approach to model selection and model
+ averaging. In this review, I emphasize objective Bayesian methods
+ based on noninformative priors. I will also discuss implementation
+ details, approximations, and relationships to other methods.},
+ doi = {10.1006/jmps.1999.1278},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{webster2003,
+ author = {Webster, M.},
+ title = {Communicating climate change uncertainty to policy--makers and the
+ public},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {61},
+ pages = {1--8},
+ number = {1--2},
+ doi = {10.1023/A:1026351131038},
+ tags = {Thesis, Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{webster+al2002,
+ author = {Webster, M. and Babiker, M. and Mayer, M. and Reilly, J. and Harnisch,
+ J. and Hyman, R. and Sarofim, M. and Wang, C.},
+ title = {Uncertainty in emissions projections for climate models},
+ journal = {Atmospheric Environment},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {36},
+ pages = {3659--3670},
+ number = {22},
+ abstract = {Future global climate projections are subject to large uncertainties.
+ Major sources of this uncertainty are projections of anthropogenic
+ emissions. We evaluate the uncertainty in future anthropogenic emissions
+ using a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy.
+ Results are simulated through 2100 for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane
+ (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons
+ (PFCs) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), sulfur dioxide (SO2), black
+ carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC), nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon
+ monoxide (CO), ammonia (NH3) and non-methane volatile organic compounds
+ (NMVOCs). We construct mean and upper and lower 95% emissions scenarios
+ (available from the authors at 1°×1° latitude--longitude grid).
+ Using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), we find a temperature
+ change range in 2100 of 0.9 to 4.0°C, compared with the Intergovernmental
+ Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios that result in a range
+ of 1.3 to 3.6°C when simulated through MIT IGSM},
+ doi = {10.1016/S1352-2310(02)00245-5},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, Thesis}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{webster+al2003,
+ author = {Webster, M. and Forest, C. and Reilly, J. and Babiker, M. and Kicklighter,
+ D. and Mayer, M. and Prinn, R. and Sarofim, M. and Sokolov, A. and
+ Stone, P. and Wang, C.},
+ title = {Uncertainty analysis of climate change and policy response},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {61},
+ pages = {295--320},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {To aid climate policy decisions, accurate quantitative descriptions
+ of the uncertainty in climate outcomes under various possible policies
+ are needed. Here, we apply an earth systems model to describe the
+ uncertainty in climate projections under two different policy scenarios.
+ This study illustrates an internally consistent uncertainty analysis
+ of one climate assessment modeling framework, propagating uncertainties
+ in both economic and climate components, and constraining climate
+ parameter uncertainties based on observation. We find that in the
+ absence of greenhouse gas emissions restrictions, there is a one
+ in forty chance that global mean surface temperature change will
+ exceed 4.9 °C by the year 2100. A policy case with aggressive emissions
+ reductions over time lowers the temperature change to a one in forty
+ chance of exceeding 3.2 °C, thus reducing but not eliminating the
+ chance of substantial warming},
+ doi = {10.1023/B:CLIM.0000004564.09961.9f},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, Thesis}
+}
+
+@BOOK{webster2007,
+ title = {Geostatistics for environment scientists},
+ publisher = {John WIley \& Sons},
+ year = {2007},
+ author = {Webster, R. and Oliver, M.},
+ address = {Chichester},
+ edition = {Second},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.03.27}
+}
+
+@TECHREPORT{WATCH-22-2010,
+ author = {Weedon, G. and Gomes, S. and Viterbo, P. and Osterle, H. and Adam,
+ J. and Bellouin, N. and Boucher, O. and Best},
+ title = {{The WATCH forcing data 1958–2001: a meteorological forcing dataset
+ land-surface and hydrological-models}},
+ institution = {{WATCH project, Technical Report Nr. 22}},
+ year = {2010},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.03.29}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{weigel+al2009,
+ author = {Weigel, A. and Liniger, M. and Appenzeller, C.},
+ title = {Seasonal ensemble forecasts: {A}re recalibrated single models better
+ than multimodels\?},
+ journal = {Monthly Weather Review},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {137},
+ pages = {1460--1479},
+ number = {4},
+ month = {April},
+ abstract = {Multimodel ensemble combination (MMEC) has become an accepted technique
+ to improve probabilistic forecasts from short- to long-range time
+ scales. MMEC techniques typically widen ensemble spread, thus improving
+ the dispersion characteristics and the reliability of the forecasts.
+ This raises the question as to whether the same effect could be achieved
+ in a potentially cheaper way by rescaling single model ensemble forecasts
+ a posteriori such that they become reliable. In this study a climate
+ conserving recalibration (CCR) technique is derived and compared
+ with MMEC. With a simple stochastic toy model it is shown that both
+ CCR and MMEC successfully improve forecast reliability. The difference
+ between these two methods is that CCR conserves resolution but inevitably
+ dilutes the potentially predictable signal while MMEC is in the ideal
+ case able to fully retain the predictable signal and to improve resolution.
+ Therefore, MMEC is conceptually to be preferred, particularly since
+ the effect of CCR depends on the length of the data record and on
+ distributional assumptions. In reality, however, multimodels consist
+ only of a finite number of participating single models, and the model
+ errors are often correlated. Under such conditions, and depending
+ on the skill metric applied, CCR-corrected single models can on average
+ have comparable skill as multimodel ensembles, particularly when
+ the potential model predictability is low. Using seasonal near-surface
+ temperature and precipitation forecasts of three models of the Development
+ of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual
+ Prediction (DEMETER) dataset, it is shown that the conclusions drawn
+ from the toy-model experiments hold equally in a real multimodel
+ ensemble prediction system. All in all, it is not possible to make
+ a general statement on whether CCR or MMEC is the better method.
+ Rather it seems that optimum forecasts can be obtained by a combination
+ of both methods, but only if first MMEC and then CCR is applied.
+ The opposite order—first CCR, then MMEC—is shown to be of only little
+ effect, at least in the context of seasonal forecasts.},
+ doi = {10.1175/2008MWR2773.1},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.07.30}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{weigel2008,
+ author = {Weigel, A. and Liniger, M. and Appenzeller, C.},
+ title = {Can multi--model combination really enhance the prediction skill
+ of probabilistic ensemble forecasts\?},
+ journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {134},
+ pages = {241--260},
+ number = {630},
+ abstract = {The success of multi-model ensemble combination has been demonstrated
+ in many studies. Given that a multi-model contains information from
+ all participating models, including the less skilful ones, the question
+ remains as to why, and under what conditions, a multi-model can outperform
+ the best participating single model. It is the aim of this paper
+ to resolve this apparent paradox. The study is based on a synthetic
+ forecast generator, allowing the generation of perfectly-calibrated
+ single-model ensembles of any size and skill. Additionally, the degree
+ of ensemble under-dispersion (or overconfidence) can be prescribed.
+ Multi-model ensembles are then constructed from both weighted and
+ unweighted averages of these single-model ensembles. Applying this
+ toy model, we carry out systematic model-combination experiments.
+ We evaluate how multi-model performance depends on the skill and
+ overconfidence of the participating single models. It turns out that
+ multi-model ensembles can indeed locally outperform a best-model
+ approach, but only if the single-model ensembles are overconfident.
+ The reason is that multi-model combination reduces overconfidence,
+ i.e. ensemble spread is widened while average ensemble-mean error
+ is reduced. This implies a net gain in prediction skill, because
+ probabilistic skill scores penalize overconfidence. Under these conditions,
+ even the addition of an objectively-poor model can improve multi-model
+ skill. It seems that simple ensemble inflation methods cannot yield
+ the same skill improvement.},
+ doi = {10.1002/qj.210},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.21}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{weiss+al2007,
+ author = {Wei{\ss}, M. and Fl\"orke, M. and Menzel, L. and Alcamo, J.},
+ title = {{Model-based scenarios of Mediterranean droughts}},
+ journal = {Advances In Geosciences},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {12},
+ pages = {145--151},
+ abstract = {This study examines the change in current 100-year hydrological drought
+ frequencies in the Mediterranean in comparison to the 2070s as simulated
+ by the global model WaterGAP. The analysis considers socio-economic
+ and climate changes as indicated by the IPCC scenarios A2 and B2
+ and the global general circulation model ECHAM4. Under these conditions
+ today's 100-year drought is estimated to occur 10 times more frequently
+ in the future over a large part of the Northern Mediterranean while
+ in North Africa, today's 100-year drought will occur less frequently.
+ Water abstractions are shown to play a minor role in comparison to
+ the impact of climate change, but can intensify the situation.},
+ doi = {10.5194/adgeo-12-145-2007},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.07.05}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{werritty2002,
+ author = {Werritty, A.},
+ title = {Living with uncertainty: {C}limate change, river flows and water
+ resource management in {S}cotland},
+ journal = {The Science of The Total Environment},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {294},
+ pages = {29--40},
+ number = {1--3},
+ abstract = {The recent increased variability of Scotland's hydroclimate poses
+ major problems for water resource managers charged with making informed
+ investment decisions given the likely impact of future climate change.
+ Two strategies are developed in this paper to assist managers faced
+ with this environmental uncertainty. The first involves trend analysis
+ of precipitation and runoff since the 1960s and 1970s viewed against
+ longer-term variability reported from instrumental records. The second
+ strategy is based upon current climate change scenarios coupled with
+ GCMs, and downscaling of precipitation and temperature to provide
+ inputs to rainfall-runoff models. The long-term records of precipitation
+ (back to the 1860s) and runoff (back to the 1930s) reveal the late
+ 1980s and early 1990s as the wettest period on record for the west
+ but not for the east. Over the period 1961--1996 the precipitation
+ gradient has intensified across Scotland: wetter west; relatively
+ dry east. Changes in runoff over the period 1970--1996 are also reported
+ with increases in annual flows at 33 out of 38 stations (significantly
+ at 12 stations) and decreases in low flows at 21 out of 38 stations
+ (significantly at one station). The bulk of these flow increases
+ occurred in the south and west especially in the autumn and spring.
+ In terms of high flows over the period 1970--1996, four out of 44
+ stations reported a change in magnitude and 15 reported an increase
+ in the frequency of POT events. In terms of future climate change,
+ Hulme and Jenkins (1998) predict annual precipitation increases of
+ 6--16% (Scotland) and 6--14% (Scottish Borders) from the 2020s to
+ the 2080s based on the Hadley Centre model (HadCM2) medium--high
+ scenario. Seasonal changes are concentrated in the autumn (SON) and
+ winter (DJF) with increases as high as 24 and 29% for the autumn
+ by the 2080s. ( Arnell NW, et al. Institute of Hydrology Report No.
+ 107, Wallingford, 1996), using an earlier transient Hadley experiment
+ (IS92a), predict a 5--15% increase in annual runoff across Scotland
+ by the 2050s, locally rising to 25%. Simulation flow duration curves
+ for the 2050s generate Q95 values up by 5% or less (Rivers Don, Almond
+ and Nith) and Q5 up by 10--24% (Rivers Don, Almond, Nith and Lyne
+ Water). In terms of water resource planning, these predicted changes
+ should be regarded as first order approximations, as they take no
+ account of natural climatic variability, and could generate different
+ absolute values if other scenarios were used. The predictions are,
+ however, broadly consistent with trends in precipitation and runoff
+ for Scotland since the 1970s. Major issues of concern to water resource
+ managers are identified and commented upon in the light of these
+ predictions},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0048-9697(02)00050-5},
+ keywords = {Climate change, River flows, Water resources, Scotland},
+ tags = {Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{westerberg+al2011,
+ author = {Westerberg, I. and Guerrero, {J-L} and Younger, P. and Beven, K.
+ and Seibert, J. and Halldin, S. and Freer, J. and Xu, {C-Y}},
+ title = {Calibration of hydrological models using flow-duration curves},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {7},
+ pages = {9467--9522},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {The degree of belief we have in predictions from hydrologic models
+ depends on how well they can reproduce observations. Calibrations
+ with traditional performance measures such as the Nash-Sutcliffe
+ model efficiency are challenged by problems including: (1) uncertain
+ discharge data, (2) variable importance of the performance with flow
+ magnitudes, (3) influence of unknown input/output errors and (4)
+ inability to evaluate model performance when observation time periods
+ for discharge and model input data do not overlap. A new calibration
+ method using flow-duration curves (FDCs) was developed which addresses
+ these problems. The method focuses on reproducing the observed discharge
+ frequency distribution rather than the exact hydrograph. It consists
+ of applying limits of acceptability for selected evaluation points
+ (EPs) of the observed uncertain FDC in the extended GLUE approach.
+ Two ways of selecting the EPs were tested {--} based on equal intervals
+ of discharge and of volume of water. The method was tested and compared
+ to a calibration using the traditional model efficiency for the daily
+ four-parameter WASMOD model in the Paso La Ceiba catchment in Honduras
+ and for Dynamic TOPMODEL evaluated at an hourly time scale for the
+ Brue catchment in Great Britain. The volume method of selecting EPs
+ gave the best results in both catchments with better calibrated slow
+ flow, recession and evaporation than the other criteria. Observed
+ and simulated time series of uncertain discharges agreed better for
+ this method both in calibration and prediction in both catchments
+ without resulting in overpredicted simulated uncertainty. An advantage
+ with the method is that the rejection criterion is based on an estimation
+ of the uncertainty in discharge data and that the EPs of the FDC
+ can be chosen to reflect the aims of the modelling application e.g.
+ using more/less EPs at high/low flows. While the new method is less
+ sensitive to epistemic input/output errors than the normal use of
+ limits of acceptability applied directly to the time series of discharge,
+ it still requires a reasonable representation of the distribution
+ of inputs. Additional constraints might therefore be required in
+ catchments subject to snow. The results suggest that the new calibration
+ method can be useful when observation time periods for discharge
+ and model input data do not overlap. The new method could also be
+ suitable for calibration to regional FDCs while taking uncertainties
+ in the hydrological model and data into account.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hessd-7-9467-2010},
+ tags = {Calibration, FDC}
+}
+
+@INCOLLECTION{wheater2008,
+ author = {Wheater, H.},
+ title = {Modelling hydrological process in arid and semi--arid areas: {A}n
+ introduction to the workshop},
+ booktitle = {Hydrological Modelling in Arid and Semi-Arid Areas},
+ publisher = {Cambridge University Press.},
+ year = {2008},
+ editor = {Howard Wheater and Soroosh Sorooshian and K. D. Sharma},
+ tags = {conceptual model}
+}
+
+@INCOLLECTION{wheater+al2008,
+ author = {Wheater, H. and {McIntire}, N. and Wagener, T.},
+ title = {Calibration, Uncertainty, and regional analysis of conceptual rainfall-runoff
+ models},
+ booktitle = {Hydrological Modelling in Arid and Semi-Arid Areas},
+ publisher = {Cambridge University Press.},
+ year = {2008},
+ editor = {Howard Wheater and Soroosh Sorooshian and K. D. Sharma},
+ tags = {Calibration, Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{whitechaubey2005,
+ author = {White, K. and Chaubey, I.},
+ title = {Sensitivity Analysis, Calibrations, and Validations for a Multisite
+ and Multivariable {SWAT} Model},
+ journal = {Journal of the American Water Resources Association},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {41},
+ pages = {1077--1089},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {The ability of a watershed model to mimic specified watershed processes
+ is assessed through the calibration and validation process. The Soil
+ and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) watershed model was implemented
+ in the Beaver Reservoir Watershed of Northwest Arkansas. The objectives
+ were to: (1) provide detailed information on calibrating and applying
+ a multisite and multivariable SWAT model; (2) conduct sensitivity
+ analysis; and (3) perform calibration and validation at three different
+ sites for flow, sediment, total phosphorus (TP), and nitrate-nitrogen
+ (NO3-N) plus nitrite-nitrogen (NO2-N). Relative sensitivity analysis
+ was conducted to identify parameters that most influenced predicted
+ flow, sediment, and nutrient model outputs. A multi objective function
+ was defined that consisted of optimizing three statistics: percent
+ relative error (RE), Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient (RNS2), and coefficient
+ of determination (R2). This function was used to successfully calibrate
+ and validate a SWAT model of Beaver Reservoir Watershed at multi-sites
+ while considering multivariables. Calibration and validation of the
+ model is a key factor in reducing uncertainty and increasing user
+ confidence in its predictive abilities, which makes the application
+ of the model effective. Information on calibration and validation
+ of multisite, multivariable SWAT models has been provided to assist
+ watershed modelers in developing their models to achieve watershed
+ management goals.},
+ bibkey = {modeling; water quality; nonpoint source pollution; nutrients; SWAT
+ model; sensitivity analysis; agriculture},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1752-1688.2005.tb03786.x},
+ tags = {Sensitivity Analysis, SWAT}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{whittemore2002,
+ author = {Whittemore, R.},
+ title = {Discussion - "Validation of the SWAT model on a large river basin
+ with point and nonpoint sources," by C. Santhi, J.G. Arnold, J.R.
+ Williams, W. A. Dugas, R. Srinivasan, and L.M. Hauck},
+ journal = {Journal of the American Water Resources Association},
+ year = {2002},
+ volume = {38},
+ pages = {1767--1768},
+ abstract = {The State of Texas has initiated the development of a Total Maximum
+ Daily Load program in the Bosque River Watershed, where point and
+ nonpoint sources of pollution are a concern. Soil Water Assessment
+ Tool (SWAT) was validated for flow, sediment, and nutrients in the
+ watershed to evaluate alternative management scenarios and estimate
+ their effects in controlling pollution. This paper discusses the
+ calibration and validation at two locations, Hico and Valley Mills,
+ along the North Bosque River. Calibration for flow was performed
+ from 1960 through 1998. Sediment and nutrient calibration was done
+ from 1993 through 1997 at Hico and from 1996 through 1997 at Valley
+ Mills. Model validation was performed for 1998. Time series plots
+ and statistical measures were used to verify model predictions. Predicted
+ values generally matched well with the observed values during calibration
+ and validation (R-2 greater than or equal to 0.6 and Nash-Suttcliffe
+ Efficiency greater than or equal to 0.5, in most instances) except
+ for some underprediction of nitrogen during calibration at both locations
+ and sediment and organic nutrients during validation at Valley Mills.
+ This study showed that SWAT was able to predict flow, sediment, and
+ nutrients successfully and can be used to study the effects of alternative
+ management scenarios.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1752-1688.2002.tb01003.x},
+ keywords = {watershed management, total maximum daily load, erosion, sedimentation,
+ phosphorus loading, dairy manure management, BALANCE, QUALITY, FLOW},
+ tags = {SWAT}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{wigleyRaper2001,
+ author = {Wigley, T. and Raper, S.},
+ title = {Interpretation of high projections for global--mean warming},
+ journal = {Science},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {293},
+ pages = {451--454},
+ number = {5529},
+ abstract = {The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has recently
+ released its Third Assessment Report (TAR), in which new projections
+ are given for global-mean warming in the absence of policies to limit
+ climate change. The full warming range over 1990 to 2100, 1.4° to
+ 5.8°C, is substantially higher than the range given previously in
+ the IPCC Second Assessment Report. Here we interpret the new warming
+ range in probabilistic terms, accounting for uncertainties in emissions,
+ the climate sensitivity, the carbon cycle, ocean mixing, and aerosol
+ forcing. We show that the probabilities of warming values at both
+ the high and low ends of the TAR range are very low. In the absence
+ of climate-mitigation policies, the 90% probability interval for
+ 1990 to 2100 warming is 1.7° to 4.9°C},
+ doi = {10.1126/science.1061604},
+ pmid = {11463906},
+ tags = {Climate Models}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{wilby2005,
+ author = {Wilby, R.},
+ title = {Uncertainty in water resource model parameters used for climate change
+ impact assessment},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {19},
+ pages = {3201--3219},
+ number = {16},
+ abstract = {Despite their acknowledged limitations, lumped conceptual models continue
+ to be used widely for climate-change impact assessments. Therefore,
+ it is important to understand the relative magnitude of uncertainties
+ in water resource projections arising from the choice of model calibration
+ period, model structure, and non-uniqueness of model parameter sets.
+ In addition, external sources of uncertainty linked to choice of
+ emission scenario, climate model ensemble member, downscaling technique(s),
+ and so on, should be acknowledged. To this end, the CATCHMOD conceptual
+ water balance model was used to project changes in daily flows for
+ the River Thames at Kingston using parameter sets derived from different
+ subsets of training data, including the full record. Monte Carlo
+ sampling was also used to explore parameter stability and identifiability
+ in the context of historic climate variability. Parameters reflecting
+ rainfall acceptance at the soil surface in simpler model structures
+ were found to be highly sensitive to the training period, implying
+ that climatic variability does lead to variability in the hydrologic
+ behaviour of the Thames basin. Non-uniqueness of parameters for more
+ complex model structures results in relatively small variations in
+ projected annual mean flow quantiles for different training periods
+ compared with the choice of emission scenario. However, this was
+ not the case for subannual flow statistics, where uncertainty in
+ flow changes due to equifinality was higher in winter than summer,
+ and comparable in magnitude to the uncertainty of the emission scenario.
+ Therefore, it is recommended that climate-change impact assessments
+ using conceptual water balance models should routinely undertake
+ sensitivity analyses to quantify uncertainties due to parameter instability,
+ identifiability and non-uniqueness. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley
+ \& Sons, Ltd.},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.5819},
+ keywords = {hydrologic model, parameter stability, climate change, uncertainty,
+ River Thames, GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL, SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS, HYDROLOGICAL
+ MODELS, LAND-USE, VARIABILITY, RUNOFF, BRITAIN, FUTURE, FLOWS, IDENTIFICATION},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{wilbyHarris2006,
+ author = {Wilby, R. and Harris, I.},
+ title = {A framework for assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts:
+ {L}ow--flow scenarios for the {R}iver {T}hames, {UK}},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {42},
+ pages = {W02419},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {A probabilistic framework is presented for combining information from
+ an ensemble of four general circulation models (GCMs), two greenhouse
+ gas emission scenarios, two statistical downscaling techniques, two
+ hydrological model structures, and two sets of hydrological model
+ parameters. GCMs were weighted according to an index of reliability
+ for downscaled effective rainfall, a key determinant of low flows
+ in the River Thames. Hydrological model structures were weighted
+ by performance at reproducing annual low-flow series. Weights were
+ also assigned to sets of water resource model (CATCHMOD) parameters
+ using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criterion. Emission scenarios
+ and downscaling methods were unweighted. A Monte Carlo approach was
+ then used to explore components of uncertainty affecting projections
+ for the River Thames by the 2080s. The resulting cumulative distribution
+ functions (CDFs) of low flows were most sensitive to uncertainty
+ in the climate change scenarios and downscaling of different GCMs.
+ Uncertainties due to the hydrological model parameters and emission
+ scenario increase with time but were less important. Abrupt changes
+ in low-flow CDFs were attributed to uncertainties in statistically
+ downscaled summer rainfall. This was linked to different behavior
+ of atmospheric moisture among the chosen GCMs},
+ doi = {10.1029/2005WR004065},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{wilbyetal2000,
+ author = {Wilby, R. and Hay, L. and {Gutowski Jr.}, W. and Arritt, R. and Takle,
+ E. and Pan, Z. and Leavesley, G. and Clark, M.},
+ title = {Hydrological responses to dynamically and statistically downscaled
+ climate model output},
+ journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
+ year = {2000},
+ volume = {27},
+ pages = {1199--1202},
+ number = {8},
+ abstract = {Daily rainfall and surface temperature series were simulated for the
+ Animas River basin, Colorado using dynamically and statistically
+ downscaled output from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/
+ National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis.
+ A distributed hydrological model was then applied to the downscaled
+ data. Relative to raw NCEP output, downscaled climate variables provided
+ more realistic simulations of basin scale hydrology. However, the
+ results highlight the sensitivity of modeled processes to the choice
+ of downscaling technique, and point to the need for caution when
+ interpreting future hydrological scenarios.},
+ doi = {10.1029/1999GL006078},
+ tags = {Downscaling}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{wilby+al1999,
+ author = {Wilby, R. and Hay, L. and Leavesley, G.},
+ title = {A comparison of downscaled and raw {GCM} output: implications for
+ climate change scenarios in the {S}an {J}uan {R}iver basin, {C}olorado},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {1999},
+ volume = {225},
+ pages = {67--91},
+ number = {1--2},
+ abstract = {The fundamental rationale for statistical downscaling is that the
+ raw outputs of climate change experiments from General Circulation
+ Models (GCMs) are an inadequate basis for assessing the effects of
+ climate change on land-surface processes at regional scales. This
+ is because the spatial resolution of GCMs is too coarse to resolve
+ important sub-grid scale processes (most notably those pertaining
+ to the hydrological cycle) and because GCM output is often unreliable
+ at individual and sub-grid box scales. By establishing empirical
+ relationships between grid-box scale circulation indices (such as
+ atmospheric vorticity and divergence) and sub-grid scale surface
+ predictands (such as precipitation), statistical downscaling has
+ been proposed as a practical means of bridging this spatial difference.
+ This study compared three sets of current and future rainfall-runoff
+ scenarios. The scenarios were constructed using: (1) statistically
+ downscaled GCM output; (2) raw GCM output; and (3) raw GCM output
+ corrected for elevational biases. Atmospheric circulation indices
+ and humidity variables were extracted from the output of the UK Meteorological
+ Office coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM (HadCM2) in order to downscale
+ daily precipitation and temperature series for the Animas River in
+ the San Juan River basin, Colorado. Significant differences arose
+ between the modelled snowpack and how regimes of the three future
+ climate scenarios. Overall, the raw GCM output suggests larger reductions
+ in winter/spring snowpack and summer runoff than the downscaling,
+ relative to current conditions. Further research is required to determine
+ the generality of the water resource implications for other regions,
+ GCM outputs and downscaled scenarios. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V.
+ All rights reserved.},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0022-1694(99)00136-5},
+ keywords = {climate change, downscaling, runoff, snowpack, general circulation
+ model, Colorado, GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL, LOCAL WEATHER, BRITISH-ISLES,
+ NORTH-AMERICA, PRECIPITATION, VALIDATION, SIMULATIONS, RAINFALL,
+ PATTERNS, INDEXES},
+ tags = {Downscaling}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{wilby+al2006,
+ author = {Wilby, R. and Whitehead, P. and Wade, A. and Butterfield, D. and
+ Davis, R. and Watts, G.},
+ title = {Integrated modelling of climate change impacts on water resources
+ and quality in a lowland catchment: {R}iver {K}ennet, {UK}},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {330},
+ pages = {204--220},
+ number = {1--2},
+ abstract = {An integrated approach to climate change impact assessment is explored
+ by linking established models of regional climate (SDSM), water resources
+ (CATCHMOD) and water quality (INCA) within a single framework. A
+ case study of the River Kennet illustrates how the system can be
+ used to investigate aspects of climate change uncertainty, deployable
+ water resources, and water quality dynamics in upper and lower reaches
+ of the drainage network. The results confirm the large uncertainty
+ in climate change scenarios and freshwater impacts due to the choice
+ of general circulation model (GCM). This uncertainty is shown to
+ be greatest during summer months as evidenced by large variations
+ between GCM-derived projections of future low river flows, deployable
+ yield from groundwater, severity of nutrient flushing episodes, and
+ long-term trends in surface water quality. Other impacts arising
+ from agricultural land-use reform or delivery of EU Water Framework
+ Directive objectives under climate change could be evaluated using
+ the same framework.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.04.033},
+ keywords = {Climate change, Uncertainty, Downscaling, Water resources, Water quality,
+ River Kennet},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{wilbywigley1997,
+ author = {Wilby, R. and Wigley, T.},
+ title = {Downscaling general circulation model output: a review of methods
+ and limitations},
+ journal = {Progress in Physical Geography},
+ year = {1997},
+ volume = {21},
+ pages = {530--548},
+ number = {4},
+ abstract = {General circulation models (GCMs) suggest that rising concentrations
+ of greenhouse gases may have significant consequences for the global
+ climate. What is less clear is the extent to which local (subgrid)
+ scale meteorological processes will be affected. So-called 'downscaling'
+ techniques have subsequently emerged as a means of bridging the gap
+ between what climate modellers are currently able to provide and
+ what impact assessors require. This article reviews the present generation
+ of downscaling tools under four main headings: regression methods;
+ weather pattern (circulation)-based approaches; stochastic weather
+ generators; and limited-area climate models. The penultimate section
+ summarizes the results of an international experiment to intercompare
+ several precipitation models used for downscaling. It shows that
+ circulation-based downscaling methods perform well in simulating
+ present observed and model-generated daily precipitation characteristics,
+ but are able to capture only part of the daily precipitation variability
+ changes associated with model-derived changes in climate. The final
+ section examines a number of ongoing challenges to the future development
+ of climate downscaling},
+ doi = {10.1177/030913339702100403},
+ tags = {Downscaling}
+}
+
+@INCOLLECTION{willmott1984,
+ author = {Willmott, C.},
+ title = {On the evaluation of model performance in physical geography},
+ booktitle = {Spatial Statistics and Models},
+ publisher = {Dordrecht, Holland: D. Reidel},
+ year = {1984},
+ editor = {G. L. Gaile and C. J. Willmott},
+ pages = {443--460},
+ bibkey = {"index of agreement"},
+ tags = {Calibration, Goodness-of-Fit}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{willmott1981,
+ author = {Willmott, C.},
+ title = {On the validation of models},
+ journal = {Physical Geography},
+ year = {1981},
+ volume = {2},
+ pages = {184--194},
+ keywords = {Index of Agreement, Calibration, goodness-of-fit},
+ tags = {Calibration, Goodness-of-Fit}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{willmott+al1985,
+ author = {Willmott, C. and Ackleson, S. and Davis, R. and Feddema, J. and Klink,
+ K. and Legates, D. and {O'Donnell}, J. and Rowe, C.},
+ title = {{S}tatistics for the {E}valuation and {C}omparison of {M}odels},
+ journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
+ year = {1985},
+ volume = {90},
+ pages = {8995--9005},
+ number = {C5},
+ abstract = {Procedures that may be used to evaluate the operational performance
+ of a wide spectrum of geophysical models are introduced. Primarily
+ using a complementary set of difference measures, both model acccuracy
+ and precision can be meaningfully estimated, regardless of whether
+ the model predicitons are manifested as scalars, directions, or vectors.
+ It is additionally suggested that the reliability of the accuracy
+ and precision measures can be determined from bootstrap estimates
+ of confidence and significance. Recommended procedures are illustrated
+ with a comparative evaluation of two models that estimate wind velocity
+ over the South Atlantic Bight. },
+ doi = {10.1029/JC090iC05p08995},
+ keywords = {Index of Agreement, Calibration, gooness-of-fit},
+ tags = {Calibration, Goodness-of-Fit}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{wilson+al2010,
+ author = {Donna Wilson and Hege Hisdal and Deborah Lawrence},
+ title = {Has streamflow changed in the Nordic countries? – Recent trends and
+ comparisons to hydrological projections},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {394},
+ pages = {334--346},
+ number = {3–-4},
+ abstract = {A pan-Nordic dataset of 151 streamflow records was analysed to detect
+ spatial and temporal changes in streamflow. Prior to undertaking
+ analyses, all streamflow records with significant levels of autocorrelation
+ were pre-whitened to remove the adverse effect of temporal autocorrelation
+ on the test results. The Mann–Kendall trend test was applied to study
+ changes in annual and seasonal streamflow as well as floods and droughts
+ for three periods: 1920–2005, 1941–2005 and 1961–2000. Field significance
+ was evaluated to determine the percentage of stations that are expected
+ to show a trend due to the effect of cross-correlation. The period
+ analysed and the selection of stations influenced the regional patterns
+ found, but the overall picture was that trends of increased streamflow
+ dominate annual values and the winter and spring seasons. Trends
+ identified in summer flows differed between the three periods analysed,
+ whereas no trend was found for the autumn season. In all three periods,
+ a signal towards earlier snowmelt floods was clear, as was the tendency
+ towards more severe summer droughts in southern and eastern Norway.
+ These trends in streamflow result from changes in both temperature
+ and precipitation, but the temperature induced signal is stronger
+ than precipitation influences. This is evident because the observed
+ trends in winter and spring, where snowmelt is the dominant process,
+ are greater than the annual trends. A qualitative comparison of the
+ findings with available streamflow projections for the region showed
+ that the strongest trends found are generally consistent with future
+ changes expected in the projection periods, for example increased
+ winter discharge and earlier snowmelt floods. However, there are
+ predicted changes that are not reflected in past trends, such as
+ the expected increase in autumn discharge in Norway. Hence, the changes
+ expected because of increased temperatures are reflected in the observed
+ trends, whereas changes anticipated due to increases in precipitation
+ are not.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.09.010},
+ issn = {0022-1694},
+ keywords = {Streamflow trends}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{winsemius+al2006,
+ author = {Winsemius, W. and Savenije, H. and Gerrits, A. and Zapreeva, A. and
+ Klees, R.},
+ title = {Comparison of two model approaches in the Zambezi river basin with
+ regard to model reliability and identifiability},
+ journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {10},
+ pages = {339--352},
+ abstract = {Variations of water stocks in the upper Zambezi river basin have been
+ determined by 2 different hydrological modelling approaches. The
+ purpose was to provide preliminary terrestrial storage estimates
+ in the upper Zambezi, which will be compared with estimates derived
+ from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) in a future
+ study. The first modelling approach is GIS-based, distributed and
+ conceptual (STREAM). The second approach uses Lumped Elementary Watersheds
+ identified and modelled conceptually (LEW). The STREAM model structure
+ has been assessed using GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty
+ Estimation) a posteriori to determine parameter identifiability.
+ The LEW approach could, in addition, be tested for model structure,
+ because computational efforts of LEW are low.},
+ doi = {10.5194/hess-10-339-2006},
+ keywords = {EQUIFINALITY, CALIBRATION, RAINFALL, SYSTEMS, CLIMATE, SCALE, AREAS,
+ NILE, SET},
+ tags = {conceptual model}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{woldeamlak2007,
+ author = {Woldeamlak, S. and Batelaan, O. and {De Smedt}, F.},
+ title = {Effects of climate change on the groundwater system in the {Grote}--{Nete}
+ catchment, {Belgium}},
+ journal = {Hydrogeology Journal},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {15},
+ pages = {891--901},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {The effects of climate change on the groundwater systems in the Grote-Nete
+ catchment, Belgium, covering an area of 525 km2, is modeled using
+ wet (greenhouse), cold or NATCC (North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation
+ Change) and dry climate scenarios. Low, central and high estimates
+ of temperature changes are adopted for wet scenarios. Seasonal and
+ annual water balance components including groundwater recharge are
+ simulated using the WetSpass model, while mean annual groundwater
+ elevations and discharge are simulated with a steady-state MODFLOW
+ groundwater model. WetSpass results for the wet scenarios show that
+ wet winters and drier summers are expected relative to the present
+ situation. MODFLOW results for wet high scenario show groundwater
+ levels increase by as much as 79 cm, which could affect the distribution
+ and species richness of meadows. Results obtained for cold scenarios
+ depict drier winters and wetter summers relative to the present.
+ The dry scenarios predict dry conditions for the whole year. There
+ is no recharge during the summer, which is mainly attributed to high
+ evapotranspiration rates by forests and low precipitation. Average
+ annual groundwater levels drop by 0.5 m, with maximum of 3.1 m on
+ the eastern part of the Campine Plateau. This could endanger aquatic
+ ecosystem, shrubs, and crop production.},
+ doi = {10.1007/s10040-006-0145-x},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.06.21}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{wood+al2004,
+ author = {Wood, A. and Leung, L. and Sridhar, V. and Lettenmaier, D.},
+ title = {Hydrologic implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to
+ downscaling climate model outputs},
+ journal = {Climatic Change},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {62},
+ pages = {189--216},
+ number = {1--3},
+ abstract = {Six approaches for downscaling climate model outputs for use in hydrologic
+ simulation were evaluated, with particular emphasis on each method's
+ ability to produce precipitation and other variables used to drive
+ a macroscale hydrology model applied at much higher spatial resolution
+ than the climate model. Comparisons were made on the basis of a twenty-year
+ retrospective (1975--1995) climate simulation produced by the NCAR-DOE
+ Parallel ClimateModel (PCM), and the implications of the comparison
+ for a future(2040--2060) PCM climate scenario were also explored.
+ The six approaches were made up of three relatively simple statistical
+ downscaling methods -- linear interpolation (LI), spatial disaggregation
+ (SD), and bias-correction and spatial disaggregation (BCSD) -- each
+ applied to both PCM output directly(at T42 spatial resolution), and
+ after dynamical downscaling via a Regional Climate Model (RCM --
+ at 1/2-degree spatial resolution), for downscaling the climate model
+ outputs to the 1/8-degree spatial resolution of the hydrological
+ model. For the retrospective climate simulation, results were compared
+ to an observed gridded climatology of temperature and precipitation,
+ and gridded hydrologic variables resulting from forcing the hydrologic
+ model with observations. The most significant findings are that the
+ BCSD method was successful in reproducing the main features of the
+ observed hydrometeorology from the retrospective climate simulation,
+ when applied to both PCM and RCM outputs. Linear interpolation produced
+ better results using RCM output than PCM output, but both methods
+ (PCM-LI and RCM-LI) lead to unacceptably biased hydrologic simulations.
+ Spatial disaggregation of the PCM output produced results similar
+ to those achieved with the RCM interpolated output; nonetheless,
+ neither PCM nor RCM output was useful for hydrologic simulation purposes
+ without a bias-correction step. For the future climate scenario,
+ only the BCSD-method (using PCM or RCM) was able to produce hydrologically
+ plausible results. With the BCSD method, the RCM-derived hydrology
+ was more sensitive to climate change than the PCM-derived hydrology.},
+ doi = {10.1023/B:CLIM.0000013685.99609.9e},
+ tags = {Downscaling, Thesis}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{wriedt2009a,
+ author = {Wriedt, G. and {Van der Velde}, M. and Aloe, A. and Bouraoui, F.},
+ title = {Estimating irrigation water requirements in {Europe}},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {373},
+ pages = {527--544},
+ number = {3--4},
+ month = {July},
+ abstract = {In Southern Europe, irrigated agriculture is by far the largest consumer
+ of freshwater resources. However, consistent information on irrigation
+ water use in the European Union is still lacking. We applied the
+ crop growth model EPIC to calculate irrigation requirements in the
+ EU and Switzerland, combining available regional statistics on crop
+ distribution and crop specific irrigated area with spatial data sources
+ on soils, land use and climate. The model was applied at a 10 × 10
+ km grid using different irrigation strategies over a period of 8
+ years. The irrigation requirements reflect the spatial distribution
+ of irrigated areas, climatic conditions and crops. Simulated net
+ irrigation requirements range from 53 mm/yr in Denmark to 1120 mm/yr
+ in Spain, translating into estimated volumetric net irrigation requirements
+ of 107 mio. m3 and 35,919 mio. m3, respectively. We estimate gross
+ irrigation demands to be 1.3–2.5 times higher than field requirements,
+ depending on the efficiency of transport and irrigation management.
+ A comparison with national and regional data on water abstractions
+ for irrigation illustrates the information deficit related to currently
+ available reported data, as not only model limitations but also different
+ national approaches, country-specific uncertainties (illegal or unrecorded
+ abstractions), and restrictions of actual water use come into play.
+ In support of European environmental and agricultural policies, this
+ work provides a large-scale overview on irrigation water requirements
+ in Europe applying a uniform approach with a sufficiently high spatial
+ resolution to support identification of hot spots and regional comparisons.
+ It will also provide a framework for national irrigation water use
+ estimations and supports further analysis of agricultural pressures
+ on water quantity in Europe.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.05.018},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.08.10}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{wriedt2009b,
+ author = {Wriedt, G. and {Van der Velde}, M. and Aloe, A. and Bouraoui, F.},
+ title = {A {European irrigation map for spatially distributed agricultural
+ modelling}},
+ journal = {Agricultural Water Management},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {96},
+ pages = {771--789},
+ number = {5},
+ month = {May},
+ abstract = {We present a pan-European irrigation map based on regional European
+ statistics, a European land use map and a global irrigation map.
+ The map provides spatial information on the distribution of irrigated
+ areas per crop type which allows determining irrigated areas at the
+ level of spatial modelling units. The map is a requirement for a
+ European scale assessment of the impacts of irrigated agriculture
+ on water resources based on spatially distributed modelling of crop
+ growth and water balance. The irrigation map was compiled in a two
+ step procedure. First, irrigated areas were distributed to potentially
+ irrigated crops at a regional level (European statistical regions
+ NUTS3), combining Farm Structure Survey (FSS) data on irrigated area,
+ crop-specific irrigated area for crops whenever available, and total
+ crop area. Second, crop-specific irrigated area was distributed within
+ each statistical region based on the crop distribution given in our
+ land use map. A global map of irrigated areas with a 5? resolution
+ was used to further constrain the distribution within each NUTS3
+ based on the density of irrigated areas. The constrained distribution
+ of irrigated areas as taken from statistics to a high resolution
+ dataset enables us to estimate irrigated areas for various spatial
+ entities, including administrative, natural and artificial units,
+ providing a reasonable input scenario for large-scale distributed
+ modelling applications. The dataset bridges a gap between global
+ datasets and detailed regional data on the distribution of irrigated
+ areas and provides information for various assessments and modelling
+ applications.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.agwat.2008.10.012},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.08.10}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{wujohnston2007,
+ author = {Wu, K. and Johnston, C.},
+ title = {Hydrologic response to climatic variability in a Great Lakes Watershed:
+ A case study with the {SWAT} model},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {337},
+ pages = {187},
+ number = {1-2},
+ abstract = {Process-based hydrologic models are usually calibrated prior to application
+ to ensure that they closely match reality. However, different hydrologic
+ response to varied climatic conditions might affect model calibration
+ and validation. A case study was conducted for a 901 km2 watershed
+ of northern Michigan to compare the effects of calibrating the Soil
+ and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) watershed model with different climatic
+ datasets representing drought (1948{--}1949) versus average (1969{--}1970)
+ conditions. The effects of the different climatic conditions on parameter
+ response and sensitivity were evaluated, and performance of the two
+ calibration versions was compared using a common validation period,
+ 1950{--}1965. For the drought- and average-calibration periods, models
+ were well calibrated, as indicated by high Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency
+ coefficients (E = 0.8 and 0.9), and low deviation of discharge values
+ (D = 2.9\% and 3.4\%). Evapotranspiration parameters differed under
+ the two sets of climatic conditions. The plant water uptake compensation
+ factor (EPCO), appropriately reflected plant water uptake patterns
+ in varied climatic conditions. Snow melting parameters differed between
+ the two scenarios. A comparison of baseflow values simulated by SWAT
+ versus those computed by a hydrograph separation method showed that
+ the SWAT method treated most snowmelt as surface runoff, whereas
+ the latter method treated much of it as baseflow. The drought-calibrated
+ version of the model performed much better during the validation
+ period (1950{--}1965) (E = 0.8, D = 2.6\%) than did the average-calibrated
+ version (E = 0.4, D = 41.4\%)},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.01.030},
+ keywords = {SWAT, Snow melting, Evapotranspiration, Baseflow, Dry and average
+ climatic condition, Great Lakes watershed},
+ tags = {Applications, SWAT}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{wuliu2012,
+ author = {Wu, Y. and Liu, S.},
+ title = {Automating calibration, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of complex
+ models using the R package Flexible Modeling Environment (FME): SWAT
+ as an example},
+ journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software},
+ year = {2012},
+ volume = {31},
+ pages = {99--109},
+ number = {0},
+ abstract = {Parameter optimization and uncertainty issues are a great challenge
+ for the application of large environmental models like the Soil and
+ Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which is a physically-based hydrological
+ model for simulating water and nutrient cycles at the watershed scale.
+ In this study, we present a comprehensive modeling environment for
+ SWAT, including automated calibration, and sensitivity and uncertainty
+ analysis capabilities through integration with the R package Flexible
+ Modeling Environment (FME). To address challenges (e.g., calling
+ the model in R and transferring variables between Fortran and R)
+ in developing such a two-language coupling framework, 1) we converted
+ the Fortran-based SWAT model to an R function (R-SWAT) using the
+ RFortran platform, and alternatively 2) we compiled SWAT as a Dynamic
+ Link Library (DLL). We then wrapped SWAT (via R-SWAT) with FME to
+ perform complex applications including parameter identifiability,
+ inverse modeling, and sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in the
+ R environment. The final R-SWAT-FME framework has the following key
+ functionalities: automatic initialization of R, running Fortran-based
+ SWAT and R commands in parallel, transferring parameters and model
+ output between SWAT and R, and inverse modeling with visualization.
+ To examine this framework and demonstrate how it works, a case study
+ simulating streamflow in the Cedar River Basin in Iowa in the United
+ Sates was used, and we compared it with the built-in auto-calibration
+ tool of SWAT in parameter optimization. Results indicate that both
+ methods performed well and similarly in searching a set of optimal
+ parameters. Nonetheless, the R-SWAT-FME is more attractive due to
+ its instant visualization, and potential to take advantage of other
+ RÂ packages (e.g., inverse modeling and statistical graphics). The
+ methods presented in the paper are readily adaptable to other model
+ applications that require capability for automated calibration, and
+ sensitivity and uncertainty analysis.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2011.11.013},
+ issn = {1364-8152},
+ keywords = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{xia+al2004,
+ author = {Xia, Y. and Yang, {Z-L} and Jackson, C. and Stoffa, P. and Sen, M.},
+ title = {Impacts of data length on optimal parameter and uncertainty estimation
+ of a land surface model},
+ journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {109},
+ pages = {D07101},
+ number = {D7},
+ abstract = {The optimal parameters and uncertainty estimation of land surface
+ models require that appropriate length of forcing and calibration
+ data be selected for computing error functions. Most of the previous
+ studies used less than two years of data to optimize land surface
+ models. In this study, 18-year hydrometeorological data at Valdai,
+ Russia, were used to run the Chameleon Surface Model (CHASM). The
+ optimal parameters were obtained by employing a global optimization
+ technique called very fast simulated annealing. The uncertainties
+ of model parameters were estimated by the Bayesian stochastic inversion
+ technique. Forty-four experiments were conducted by using different
+ lengths of data from the 18-year record, and a total of about 3 million
+ parameter sets were produced. This study found that different calibration
+ variables require different lengths of data to obtain optimal parameters
+ and uncertainty estimates which are insensitive to the period selected.
+ In the case of optimal parameters, monthly root-zone soil moisture,
+ runoff, and evapotranspiration require 8, 3, and 1 years of data,
+ respectively. In the case of uncertainty estimates, monthly root-zone
+ soil moisture, runoff, and evapotranspiration require 8, 8, and 3
+ years of data, respectively. Spin-up has little impact on the selection
+ of optimal parameters and uncertainty estimates when evapotranspiration
+ and runoff were calibrated. However, spin-up affects the selection
+ of optimal parameters when soil moisture was calibrated},
+ doi = {10.1029/2003JD004419},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{xiong2008,
+ author = {Xiong, L. and O'Connor, K.},
+ title = {An empirical method to improve the prediction limits of the {GLUE}
+ methodology in rainfall--runoff modeling},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {349},
+ pages = {115--124},
+ number = {1--2},
+ abstract = {The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method is
+ one of the most widely used methods for investigating the uncertainties
+ in the water resources and environmental modeling. However, some
+ researches have found that the percentage of the observations falling
+ within the prediction limits provided by the GLUE is much lower than
+ the given certainty level used to produce these prediction limits
+ in many cases. One possible reason contributing to such a low enveloping
+ efficiency is the fact that, as the GLUE method indiscriminatingly
+ accepts the simulation output of the hydrological model as its input,
+ the errors in the simulation output of the hydrological model will
+ be directly reflected in the prediction limits provided by the GLUE
+ method. So, it is suggested in this paper to modify the original
+ GLUE methodology by applying a new procedure designed to at least
+ partially correct the simulation/prediction of the hydrological model
+ prior to the derivation of the prediction limits at each time step,
+ in an attempt to improve the efficiency of the GLUE prediction limits
+ in enveloping the real-world observations. To test this simple concept,
+ both the original GLUE and the suggested modified GLUE methods have
+ been employed to produce the prediction limits of runoff on two different
+ catchments. In terms of the containing ratio, i.e. the percentage
+ of the observed data bracketed by the respective runoff prediction
+ limits, the modified GLUE method has shown substantial improvements
+ over the original method, in both the calibration and the verification
+ periods.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.10.029},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.07.16}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{xu1999a,
+ author = {Xu, {C.-Y.}},
+ title = {From {GCMs} to river flow: {A} review of downscaling methods and
+ hydrologic modelling approaches},
+ journal = {Progress in Physical Geography},
+ year = {1999},
+ volume = {23},
+ pages = {229--249},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {The scientific literature of the past decade contains a large number
+ of reports detailing the development of downscaling methods and the
+ use of hydrologic models to assess the potential effects of climate
+ change on a variety of water resource issues. This article reviews
+ the current state of methodologies for simulating hydrological responses
+ to global climate change. Emphasis is given to recent advances in
+ climatic downscaling and the problems related to the practical application
+ of appropriate models in impact studies. Following a discussion of
+ the advantages and deficiencies of the various approaches, challenges
+ for the future study of the hydrological impacts of climate change
+ are identified.},
+ doi = {10.1177/030913339902300204},
+ tags = {Downscaling, Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{xu1999b,
+ author = {Xu, {C.-Y.}},
+ title = {Climate change and hydrologic models: {A} review of existing gaps
+ and recent research developments},
+ journal = {Water Resources Management},
+ year = {1999},
+ volume = {13},
+ pages = {369--382},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {Global atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been developed
+ to simulate the present climate and used to predict future climatic
+ change. While GCMs demonstrate significant skill at the continental
+ and hemispheric spatial scales and incorporate a large proportion
+ of the complexity of the global system, they are inherently unable
+ to represent local subgrid-scale features and dynamics. The existing
+ gap and the methodologies for narrowing the gap between GCMs' ability
+ and the need of hydrological modelers are reviewed in this paper.
+ Following the discussion of the advantages and deficiencies of various
+ methods, the challenges for future studies of the hydrological impacts
+ of climate change are identified},
+ doi = {10.1023/A:1008190900459},
+ tags = {Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{Xu1999c,
+ author = {Xu, {C.-Y.}},
+ title = {Operational testing of a water balance model for predicting climate
+ change impacts},
+ journal = {Agricultural And Forest Meteorology},
+ year = {1999},
+ volume = {98-99},
+ pages = {295--304},
+ abstract = {The ability of water balance models to incorporate month-month or
+ seasonal variations in climate, snowfall and snowmelt, groundwater
+ fluctuations, soil moisture characteristics, and natural climatic
+ variability makes them especially attractive for water resources
+ studies of climatic changes. The use of conceptual models to explore
+ the impact of climate changes has increased in recent years. Because
+ of the success claimed for these studies, it is likely that computer
+ simulation of catchments will increasingly be used by and for water
+ resource managers as an aid to decision-making. There is therefore
+ a need for a generally accepted method for demonstrating a model's
+ fitness for such use. The simple split-sample test method may be
+ reasonable in the simplest case of the 'filling-in missing data'
+ problem but certainly not if the express purpose of the model is
+ to simulate records for conditions different from those corresponding
+ to the calibration record, such as the problem with predicting the
+ effects of climate changes where the data on the changed system are
+ not (and cannot be) available for comparison with the model predictions.
+ Thus, model validation must demonstrate 'fitness for the said purpose'.},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0168-1923(99)00106-9},
+ keywords = {water balance models, validation methods, climate change impacts,
+ NOPEX, HYDROLOGIC-MODELS, RIVER RUNOFF, SNOW COVER, NOPEX AREA, CATCHMENTS,
+ RAINFALL, FLOW},
+ tags = {Goodness-of-Fit, Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{xusingh2004,
+ author = {Xu, {C.-Y.} and Singh, V.},
+ title = {Review on regional water resources Assessment models under stationary
+ and changing climate},
+ journal = {Water Resources Management},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {18},
+ pages = {591--612},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {A comprehensive assessment of the water resources available in a region
+ or a river basin is essential for finding sustainable solutions for
+ water-related problems concerning both the quantity and quality of
+ the water resources. Research on the development and application
+ of water balance models at different spatial and temporal scales
+ has been carried out since later part of the 19th century. As a result,
+ a great deal of experience on various models and methods has been
+ gained. This paper reviews both traditional long-term water balance
+ methods and the new generation distributed models for assessing available
+ water resources under stationary and changing climatic conditions
+ at different spatial and temporal scales. The applicability and limitations
+ of the methods are addressed. Finally, current advances and challenges
+ in regional- and large-scale assessment of water resources are presented},
+ doi = {10.1007/s11269-004-9130-0},
+ tags = {Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{xu+al2010,
+ author = {Xu, {Y.-P.} and Booij, M. and Tong, {Y.-B.}},
+ title = {Uncertainty analysis in statistical modeling of extreme hydrological
+ events},
+ journal = {Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {24},
+ pages = {567--578},
+ number = {5},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00477-009-0337-8},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.07.12}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{yang+al2008,
+ author = {Yang, J. and Reichert, P. and Abbaspour, K. and Xia, J. and Yang,
+ H.},
+ title = {Comparing uncertainty analysis techniques for a {SWAT} application
+ to the {C}haohe {B}asin in {C}hina},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {358},
+ pages = {1--23},
+ number = {1-2},
+ abstract = {Distributed watershed models are increasingly being used to support
+ decisions about alternative management strategies in the areas of
+ land use change, climate change, water allocation, and pollution
+ control. For this reason it is important that these models pass through
+ a careful calibration and uncertainty analysis. To fulfil this demand,
+ in recent years, scientists have come up with various uncertainty
+ analysis techniques for watershed models. To determine the differences
+ and similarities of these techniques we compared five uncertainty
+ analysis procedures: Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation
+ (GLUE), Parameter Solution (ParaSol), Sequential Uncertainty FItting
+ algorithm (SUFI-2), and a Bayesian framework implemented using Markov
+ chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Importance Sampling (IS) techniques.
+ As these techniques are different in their philosophies and leave
+ the user some freedom in formulating the generalized likelihood measure,
+ objective function, or likelihood function, a literal comparison
+ between these techniques is not possible. As there is a small spectrum
+ of different applications in hydrology for the first three techniques,
+ we made this choice according to their typical use in hydrology.
+ For Bayesian inference, we used a recently developed likelihood function
+ that does not obviously violate the statistical assumptions, namely
+ a continuous-time autoregressive error model. We implemented all
+ these techniques for the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) and
+ applied them to the Chaohe Basin in China. We compared the results
+ with respect to the posterior parameter distributions, performances
+ of their best estimates, prediction uncertainty, conceptual bases,
+ computational efficiency, and difficulty of implementation. The comparison
+ results for these categories are listed and the advantages and disadvantages
+ are analyzed. From the point of view of the authors, if computationally
+ feasible, Bayesian-based approaches are most recommendable because
+ of their solid conceptual basis, but construction and test of the
+ likelihood function requires critical attention.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.05.012},
+ keywords = {uncertainty analysis, watershed modeling, Bayesian inference, SUFI-2,
+ GLUE, ParaSol, RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS, FLOOD FREQUENCY ESTIMATION,
+ NONPOINT-SOURCE POLLUTION, PARAMETER-ESTIMATION, BAYESIAN-INFERENCE,
+ WATERSHED MODEL, CLIMATE-CHANGE, ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS, CONTINUOUS
+ SIMULATION, CATCHMENT MODELS},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, SWAT}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{yang+al2007,
+ author = {Yang, J. and Reichert, P. and Abbaspour, K. and Yang, H.},
+ title = {Hydrological modelling of the Chaohe Basin in China: Statistical
+ model formulation and Bayesian inference},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {340},
+ pages = {167},
+ number = {3-4},
+ abstract = {Calibration of hydrologic models is very difficult because of measurement
+ errors in input and response, errors in model structure, and the
+ large number of non-identifiable parameters of distributed models.
+ The difficulties even increase in arid regions with high seasonal
+ variation of precipitation, where the modelled residuals often exhibit
+ high heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation. On the other hand, support
+ of water management by hydrologic models is important in arid regions,
+ particularly if there is increasing water demand due to urbanization.
+ The use and assessment of model results for this purpose require
+ a careful calibration and uncertainty analysis. Extending earlier
+ work in this field, we developed a procedure to overcome (i) the
+ problem of non-identifiability of distributed parameters by introducing
+ aggregate parameters and using Bayesian inference, (ii) the problem
+ of heteroscedasticity of errors by combining a Box{--}Cox transformation
+ of results and data with seasonally dependent error variances, (iii)
+ the problems of autocorrelated errors, missing data and outlier omission
+ with a continuous-time autoregressive error model, and (iv) the problem
+ of the seasonal variation of error correlations with seasonally dependent
+ characteristic correlation times. The technique was tested with the
+ calibration of the hydrologic sub-model of the Soil and Water Assessment
+ Tool (SWAT) in the Chaohe Basin in North China. The results demonstrated
+ the good performance of this approach to uncertainty analysis, particularly
+ with respect to the fulfilment of statistical assumptions of the
+ error model. A comparison with an independent error model and with
+ error models that only considered a subset of the suggested techniques
+ clearly showed the superiority of the approach based on all the features
+ (i){--}(iv) mentioned above.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.04.006},
+ keywords = {Watershed model calibration, Uncertainty analysis, Bayesian inference,
+ Continuous-time autoregressive error model, MCMC, SWAT, UNCSIM, Aggregate
+ parameters},
+ tags = {SWAT, Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{yapo+al1998,
+ author = {Yapo, P. and Gupta, H. and Sorooshian, S.},
+ title = {Multi-objective global optimization for hydrologic models},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {1998},
+ volume = {204},
+ pages = {83--97},
+ number = {1-4},
+ abstract = {The development of automated (computer-based) calibration methods
+ has focused mainly on the selection of a single-objective measure
+ of the distance between the model-simulated output and the data and
+ the selection of an automatic optimization algorithm to search for
+ the parameter values which minimize that distance. However, practical
+ experience with model calibration suggests that no single-objective
+ function is adequate to measure the ways in which the model fails
+ to match the important characteristics of the observed data. Given
+ that some of the latest hydrologic models simulate several of the
+ watershed output fluxes (e.g. water, energy, chemical constituents,
+ etc.), there is a need for effective and efficient multi-objective
+ calibration procedures capable of exploiting all of the useful information
+ about the physical system contained in the measurement data time
+ series. The MOCOM-UA algorithm, an effective and efficient methodology
+ for solving the multiple-objective global optimization problem, is
+ presented in this paper. The method is an extension of the successful
+ SCE-UA single-objective global optimization algorithm. The features
+ and capabilities of MOCOM-UA are illustrated by means of a simple
+ hydrologic model calibration study.},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00107-8},
+ issn = {0022-1694},
+ keywords = {Surface water, Watershed models, Parameter estimation, Calibration,
+ Multiple objectives, Global optimization, pareto optimality, multi-objective},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{yapo+al1996,
+ author = {Yapo, P. and Gupta, H. and Sorooshian, S.},
+ title = {Automatic calibration of conceptual rainfall-runoff models: Sensitivity
+ to calibration data},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {1996},
+ volume = {181},
+ pages = {23--48},
+ number = {1-4},
+ abstract = {The identification of hydrologic models requires that appropriate
+ data be selected for model calibration. In the research presented
+ here, the shuffled complex evolution (SCE-UA) global optimization
+ method was used to calibrate the NWSRFS-SMA conceptual rainfall-runoff
+ flood forecasting model of the US National Weather Service, using
+ a 40-year record of historical data. Based on 344 calibration runs
+ using different lengths of data from different sections of the historical
+ record, we conclude that approximately 8 years of data are required
+ to obtain calibrations that are relatively insensitive to the period
+ selected. Further, the reduction in parameter uncertainty is maximal
+ when the wettest data periods on record are used. A residual analysis
+ is used to compare the performance of the daily root mean square
+ (DRMS) and heteroscedastic maximum likelihood error (HMLE) objective
+ functions. The results suggest that the factor currently limiting
+ model performance is the unavailability of strategies that explicitly
+ account for model error during calibration.},
+ doi = {10.1016/0022-1694(95)02918-4},
+ keywords = {PBIAS, GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION, CATCHMENT MODELS},
+ optkey = {Automatic calibration; rainfall-runoff models},
+ optnumber = {1-4},
+ optpages = {23-48},
+ optvolume = {181},
+ tags = {Calibration, Goodness-of-Fit}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{yates1997,
+ author = {Yates, D.},
+ title = {Approaches to continental scale runoff for integrated assessment
+ models},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {1997},
+ volume = {201},
+ pages = {289--310},
+ number = {1--4},
+ abstract = {The need to incorporate water resources into regional and global integrated
+ assessment models for evaluating global change impacts has been identified
+ as being important, but given the spatial and temporal variability
+ of freshwater resources and limited data availability, the inclusion
+ of water within these large scale models has proven to be difficult.
+ A compromise between accurate representation of complex processes
+ and simplistic parameterization is necessary for capturing regional
+ and temporal variability and to minimize computational requirements.
+ An analysis of Western Europe's and Africa's freshwater runoff, which
+ spans a range of climate variability, was performed at varying levels
+ of spatial aggregation and at both monthly and annual time steps.
+ Model results showed that regional runoff characteristics were lost
+ beyond a data aggregation of 1° × 1° resolution. A monthly soil
+ moisture model proved to be adequate for assessing annual water availability,
+ which is the scale often used in integrated assessment models. Simpler
+ methods, such as an empirical annual model and a simple monthly model
+ did not consistently replicate annual historic runoff.},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00044-9},
+ keywords = {Continental scale runoff, Integrated assessment models, Climate variability,
+ Spatial aggregation},
+ tags = {Climate Change, Large Scale, conceptual model}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{ye2010,
+ author = {Ye, M.},
+ title = {M{MA}: {A} computer code for multimodel analysis},
+ journal = {Ground Water},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {48},
+ pages = {9--12},
+ number = {1},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1745-6584.2009.00647.x},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.01.05}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{yeetal2010,
+ author = {Ye, M. and Lu, D. and Neuman, S. and Meyer, P.},
+ title = {Comment on ``Inverse groundwater modeling for hydraulic conductivity
+ estimation using {B}ayesian model averaging and variance window"
+ by {Frank T.-C. Tsai and Xiaobao Li}},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {46},
+ pages = {W02801},
+ doi = {10.1029/2009WR008501},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.01.21}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{yeetal2008a,
+ author = {Ye, M. and Meyer, P. and Neuman, S.},
+ title = {On model selection criteria in multimodel analysis},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {44},
+ pages = {W03428},
+ abstract = {Hydrologic systems are open and complex, rendering them prone to multiple
+ conceptualizations and mathematical descriptions. There has been
+ a growing tendency to postulate several alternative hydrologic models
+ for a site and use model selection criteria to (1) rank these models,
+ (2) eliminate some of them, and/or (3) weigh and average predictions
+ and statistics generated by multiple models. This has led to some
+ debate among hydrogeologists about the merits and demerits of common
+ model selection (also known as model discrimination or information)
+ criteria such as AIC, AICc, BIC, and KIC and some lack of clarity
+ about the proper interpretation and mathematical representation of
+ each criterion. We examine the model selection literature to find
+ that (1) all published rigorous derivations of AIC and AICc require
+ that the (true) model having generated the observational data be
+ in the set of candidate models; (2) though BIC and KIC were originally
+ derived by assuming that such a model is in the set, BIC has been
+ rederived by Cavanaugh and Neath (1999) without the need for such
+ an assumption; and (3) KIC reduces to BIC as the number of observations
+ becomes large relative to the number of adjustable model parameters,
+ implying that it likewise does not require the existence of a true
+ model in the set of alternatives. We explain why KIC is the only
+ criterion accounting validly for the likelihood of prior parameter
+ estimates, elucidate the unique role that the Fisher information
+ matrix plays in KIC, and demonstrate through an example that it imbues
+ KIC with desirable model selection properties not shared by AIC,
+ AICc, or BIC. Our example appears to provide the first comprehensive
+ test of how AIC, AICc, BIC, and KIC weigh and rank alternative models
+ in light of the models' predictive performance under cross validation
+ with real hydrologic data.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2008WR006803},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{yeetal2004,
+ author = {Ye, M. and Neuman, S. and Meyer, P.},
+ title = {Maximum likelihood {B}ayesian averaging of spatial variability models
+ in unsaturated fractured tuff},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {40},
+ pages = {W05113},
+ abstract = {Hydrologic analyses typically rely on a single conceptual-mathematical
+ model. Yet hydrologic environments are open and complex, rendering
+ them prone to multiple interpretations and mathematical descriptions.
+ Adopting only one of these may lead to statistical bias and underestimation
+ of uncertainty. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) [ Hoeting et al.,
+ 1999 ] provides an optimal way to combine the predictions of several
+ competing models and to assess their joint predictive uncertainty.
+ However, it tends to be computationally demanding and relies heavily
+ on prior information about model parameters. Neuman [2002 , 2003]
+ proposed a maximum likelihood version (MLBMA) of BMA to render it
+ computationally feasible and to allow dealing with cases where reliable
+ prior information is lacking. We apply MLBMA to seven alternative
+ variogram models of log air permeability data from single-hole pneumatic
+ injection tests in six boreholes at the Apache Leap Research Site
+ (ALRS) in central Arizona. Unbiased ML estimates of variogram and
+ drift parameters are obtained using adjoint state maximum likelihood
+ cross validation [ Samper and Neuman, 1989a ] in conjunction with
+ universal kriging and generalized least squares. Standard information
+ criteria provide an ambiguous ranking of the models, which does not
+ justify selecting one of them and discarding all others as is commonly
+ done in practice. Instead, we eliminate some of the models based
+ on their negligibly small posterior probabilities and use the rest
+ to project the measured log permeabilities by kriging onto a rock
+ volume containing the six boreholes. We then average these four projections
+ and associated kriging variances, using the posterior probability
+ of each model as weight. Finally, we cross validate the results by
+ eliminating from consideration all data from one borehole at a time,
+ repeating the above process and comparing the predictive capability
+ of MLBMA with that of each individual model. We find that MLBMA is
+ superior to any individual geostatistical model of log permeability
+ among those we consider at the ALRS.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2003WR002557},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{yeetal2005,
+ author = {Ye, M. and Neuman, S. and Meyer, P. and Pohlmann, K.},
+ title = {Sensitivity analysis and assessment of prior model probabilities
+ in {MLBMA} with application to unsaturated fractured tuff},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {41},
+ pages = {W12429},
+ abstract = {Previous application of maximum likelihood Bayesian model averaging
+ (MLBMA, Neuman (2002, 2003)) to alternative variogram models of log
+ air permeability data in fractured tuff has demonstrated its effectiveness
+ in quantifying conceptual model uncertainty and enhancing predictive
+ capability (Ye et al., 2004). A question remained how best to ascribe
+ prior probabilities to competing models. In this paper we examine
+ the extent to which lead statistics of posterior log permeability
+ predictions are sensitive to prior probabilities of seven corresponding
+ variogram models. We then explore the feasibility of quantifying
+ prior model probabilities by (1) maximizing Shannon's entropy H (Shannon,
+ 1948) subject to constraints reflecting a single analyst's (or a
+ group of analysts') prior perception about how plausible each alternative
+ model (or a group of models) is relative to others, and (2) selecting
+ a posteriori the most likely among such maxima corresponding to alternative
+ prior perceptions of various analysts or groups of analysts. Another
+ way to select among alternative prior model probability sets, which,
+ however, is not guaranteed to yield optimum predictive performance
+ (though it did so in our example) and would therefore not be our
+ preferred option, is a minimum-maximum approach according to which
+ one selects a priori the set corresponding to the smallest value
+ of maximum entropy. Whereas maximizing H subject to the prior perception
+ of a single analyst (or group) maximizes the potential for further
+ information gain through conditioning, selecting the smallest among
+ such maxima gives preference to the most informed prior perception
+ among those of several analysts (or groups). We use the same variogram
+ models and log permeability data as Ye et al. (2004) to demonstrate
+ that our proposed approach yields the least amount of posterior entropy
+ (residual uncertainty after conditioning) and enhances predictive
+ model performance as compared to (1) the noninformative neutral case
+ in which all prior model probabilities are set equal to each other
+ and (2) an informed case that nevertheless violates the principle
+ of parsimony.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2005WR004260},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{yeetal2009,
+ author = {Ye, M. and Pohlman, K. and Chapman, J. and Pohll, G. and Reeves,
+ D.},
+ title = {A model--averaging method for assessing groundwater conceptual model
+ uncertainty},
+ journal = {Ground Water},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {48},
+ pages = {716--728},
+ number = {5},
+ abstract = {This study evaluates alternative groundwater models with different
+ recharge and geologic components at the northern Yucca Flat area
+ of the Death Valley Regional Flow System (DVRFS), USA. Recharge over
+ the DVRFS has been estimated using five methods, and five geological
+ interpretations are available at the northern Yucca Flat area. Combining
+ the recharge and geological components together with additional modeling
+ components that represent other hydrogeological conditions yields
+ a total of 25 groundwater flow models. As all the models are plausible
+ given available data and information, evaluating model uncertainty
+ becomes inevitable. On the other hand, hydraulic parameters (e.g.,
+ hydraulic conductivity) are uncertain in each model, giving rise
+ to parametric uncertainty. Propagation of the uncertainty in the
+ models and model parameters through groundwater modeling causes predictive
+ uncertainty in model predictions (e.g., hydraulic head and flow).
+ Parametric uncertainty within each model is assessed using Monte
+ Carlo simulation, and model uncertainty is evaluated using the model
+ averaging method. Two model-averaging techniques (on the basis of
+ information criteria and GLUE) are discussed. This study shows that
+ contribution of model uncertainty to predictive uncertainty is significantly
+ larger than that of parametric uncertainty. For the recharge and
+ geological components, uncertainty in the geological interpretations
+ has more significant effect on model predictions than uncertainty
+ in the recharge estimates. In addition, weighted residuals vary more
+ for the different geological models than for different recharge models.
+ Most of the calibrated observations are not important for discriminating
+ between the alternative models, because their weighted residuals
+ vary only slightly from one model to another.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1745-6584.2009.00633.x},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2010.01.05}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{yeetal2008b,
+ author = {Ye, M. and Pohlmann, K. and Chapman, J.},
+ title = {Expert elicitation of recharge model probabilities for the {D}eath
+ {V}alley regional flow system},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {354},
+ pages = {102--115},
+ number = {1--4},
+ abstract = {This study uses expert elicitation to evaluate and select five alternative
+ recharge models developed for the Death Valley regional flow system
+ (DVRFS), covering southeast Nevada and the Death Valley area of California,
+ USA. The five models were developed based on three independent techniques:
+ an empirical approach, an approach based on unsaturated-zone studies
+ and an approach based on saturated-zone studies. It is uncertain
+ which recharge model (or models) should be used as input for groundwater
+ models simulating flow and contaminant transport within the DVRFS.
+ An expert elicitation was used to evaluate and select the recharge
+ models and to determine prior model probabilities used for assessing
+ model uncertainty. The probabilities were aggregated using simple
+ averaging and iterative methods, with the latter method also considering
+ between-expert variability. The most favorable model, on average,
+ is the most complicated model that comprehensively incorporates processes
+ controlling net infiltration and potential recharge. The simplest
+ model, and the most widely used, received the second highest prior
+ probability. The aggregated prior probabilities are close to the
+ neutral choice that treats the five models as equally likely. Thus,
+ there is no support for selecting a single model and discarding others,
+ based on prior information and expert judgment. This reflects the
+ inherent uncertainty in the recharge models. If a set of prior probability
+ from a single expert is of more interest, we suggest selecting the
+ set of the minimum Shannon’s entropy. The minimum entropy implies
+ the smallest amount of uncertainty and the largest amount of information
+ used to evaluate the models. However, when enough data are available,
+ we prefer to use a cross-validation method to select the best set
+ of prior model probabilities that gives the best predictive performance.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.03.001},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.07.14}
+}
+
+@CONFERENCE{yeetal2006,
+ author = {Ye, M. and Pohlmann, K. and Chapman, J. and Shafer, D.},
+ title = {On evaluation of recharge model uncertainty: {A} priori and a posteriori},
+ booktitle = {2006 {I}nternational {H}igh {L}evel {R}adioactive {W}aste {M}anagement
+ {C}onference},
+ year = {2006},
+ address = {Las Vegas Nevada US},
+ publisher = {American Nuclear Society},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.04.23}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{ye+al1997,
+ author = {Ye, W. and Bates, B. and Viney, N. and Sivapalan, M. and Jakeman,
+ A.},
+ title = {Performance of conceptual rainfall-runoff models in low-yielding
+ ephemeral catchments},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1997},
+ volume = {33},
+ pages = {153--166},
+ number = {1},
+ abstract = {Low-yielding catchments with ephemeral streams involve highly nonlinear
+ relationships between rainfall and runoff, and there is much less
+ documentation and appreciation of the ability to predict streamflow
+ in these veiy difficult cases than in humid catchments. The predictions
+ of three conceptual rainfall-runoff models are assessed in three
+ low-yielding, emphemeral streams over a 10-year period. The models
+ are a simple conceptual model, Generalized Surface inFiltration Baseflow
+ (GSFB; eight parameters), a hybrid metric/conceptual model, Identification
+ of Hydrographs and Components from Rainfall, Evaporation and Streamflow
+ data (IHACRES; six parameters), and a complex conceptual model, the
+ Large Scale Catchment Model (LASCAM; 22 parameters). The Salmon (0.82
+ km2), Stones (15 km2), and Canning (517 km2) catchments in Western
+ Australia were selected for their range of sizes and low runoff yields
+ (1.6{--}12.2\% of rainfall). Their behavior is representative of
+ a large part of Australia and semiarid regions, where antecedent
+ conditions are critical determinants of streamflow response to rainfall.
+ Such catchments provide a stern test of the capability of conceptual
+ models. Five-year calibration and validation performances were assessed
+ with a range of statistics. The models were run daily but performance
+ was assessed on both a daily and monthly basis by aggregating daily
+ model streamflows and observations up to monthly. The models performed
+ well, particularly in the monthly case where often more than 90\%
+ of the variance of observed streamflow was explained in simulation
+ on independent periods. However, while the simple conceptual model
+ is adequate for monthly time periods, the daily simulation results
+ indicate that a slightly more complex model (the hybrid model or
+ the complex conceptual model) is required for daily predictions in
+ these diy catchments. The model simulation results extend the following
+ notion of Jakeman and Hornberger [1993] from humid to semiarid ephemeral
+ catchments: that a model of about six parameters, albeit in an appropriate
+ model structure, is sufficient to characterize the information in
+ rainfall-discharge time series over a wide range of catchment sizes.
+ Models of such modest complexity also predict runoff with good accuracy
+ outside calibration periods, even in ephemeral, low-yielding catchments.
+ The simulation results highlight the critical importance of the deep
+ groundwater and antecedent moisture conditions on stream yields in
+ ephemeral catchments and point to the desirability of accounting
+ for these factors in arid-zone modeling.},
+ doi = {10.1029/96WR02840},
+ tags = {Calibration, conceptual model, Low-Flows}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{yeh1986,
+ author = {Yeh, {W. W.-G.}},
+ title = {Review of parameter identification procedures in groundwater hydrology:
+ {T}he inverse problem},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {1986},
+ volume = {22},
+ pages = {95--108},
+ number = {2},
+ abstract = {The purpose of this survey is to review parameter identification procedures
+ in groundwater hydrology and to examine computational techniques
+ which have been developed to solve the inverse problem. Parameter
+ identification methods are classified under the error criterion used
+ in the formulation of the inverse problem. The problem of ill-posedness
+ in connection with the inverse problem is addressed. Typical inverse
+ solution techniques are highlighted. The review also includes the
+ evaluation of methods used for computing the sensitivity matrix.
+ Statistics which can be used to estimate the parameter uncertainty
+ are outlined. Attempts have been made to compare and contrast representative
+ inverse procedures, and direction for future research is suggested.},
+ doi = {10.1029/WR022i002p00095},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.03.25}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{yilmaz+al2008,
+ author = {Yilmaz, K. and Gupta, H. and Wagener, T.},
+ title = {A process-based diagnostic approach to model evaluation: Application
+ to the {NWS} distributed hydrologic model},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {44},
+ pages = {W09417},
+ number = {9},
+ abstract = {Distributed hydrological models have the potential to provide improved
+ streamflow forecasts along the entire channel network, while also
+ simulating the spatial dynamics of evapotranspiration, soil moisture
+ content, water quality, soil erosion, and land use change impacts.
+ However, they are perceived as being difficult to parameterize and
+ evaluate, thus translating into significant predictive uncertainty
+ in the model results. Although a priori parameter estimates derived
+ from observable watershed characteristics can help to minimize obstacles
+ to model implementation, there exists a need for powerful automated
+ parameter estimation strategies that incorporate diagnostic information
+ regarding the causes of poor model performance. This paper investigates
+ a diagnostic approach to model evaluation that exploits hydrological
+ context and theory to aid in the detection and resolution of watershed
+ model inadequacies, through consideration of three of the four major
+ behavioral functions of any watershed system; overall water balance,
+ vertical redistribution, and temporal redistribution (spatial redistribution
+ was not addressed). Instead of using classical statistical measures
+ (such as mean squared error), we use multiple hydrologically relevant
+ {``}signature measures{''} to quantify the performance of the model
+ at the watershed outlet in ways that correspond to the functions
+ mentioned above and therefore help to guide model improvements in
+ a meaningful way. We apply the approach to the Hydrology Laboratory
+ Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-DHM) of the National Weather Service
+ and show that diagnostic evaluation has the potential to provide
+ a powerful and intuitive basis for deriving consistent estimates
+ of the parameters of watershed models},
+ doi = {10.1029/2007WR006716},
+ keywords = {Diagnostic evaluation, distributed hydrologic modeling, parameter
+ estimation, calibration, models, watersheds, processes, information},
+ tags = {Calibration, Thesis, Signatures}
+}
+
+@INCOLLECTION{young1983,
+ author = {Young, P.},
+ title = {The validity and credibility of models for badly-defined systems},
+ booktitle = {Uncertainty and Forecasting of Water Quality},
+ publisher = {Springer-Verlag:Berlin},
+ year = {1983},
+ editor = {M. B. Beck and G. van Straten},
+ pages = {69--98},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{yu+al2012,
+ author = {Yu, J. and Qin, X. and Larsen, O.},
+ title = {Joint Monte Carlo and possibilistic simulation for flood damage assessment},
+ journal = {Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment},
+ pages = {1--11},
+ abstract = {A joint Monte Carlo and fuzzy possibilistic simulation (MC-FPS) approach
+ was proposed for flood risk assessment. Monte Carlo simulation was
+ used to evaluate parameter uncertainties associated with inundation
+ modeling, and fuzzy vertex analysis was applied for promulgating
+ human-induced uncertainty in flood damage estimation. A study case
+ was selected to show how to apply the proposed method. The results
+ indicate that the outputs from MC-FPS would present as fuzzy flood
+ damage estimate and probabilistic-possibilistic damage contour maps.
+ The stochastic uncertainty in the flood inundation model and fuzziness
+ in the depth-damage functions derivation would cause similar levels
+ of influence on the final flood damage estimate. Under the worst
+ scenario (i.e. a combined probabilistic and possibilistic uncertainty),
+ the estimated flood damage could be 2.4 times higher than that computed
+ from conventional deterministic approach; considering only the pure
+ stochastic effect, the flood loss would be 1.4 times higher. It was
+ also indicated that uncertainty in the flood inundation modeling
+ has a major influence on the standard deviation of the simulated
+ damage, and that in the damage-depth function has more notable impact
+ on the mean of the fitted distributions. Through applying MC-FPS,
+ rich information could be derived under various α-cut levels and
+ cumulative probabilities, and it forms an important basis for supporting
+ rational decision making for flood risk management under complex
+ uncertainties.},
+ affiliation = {School of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Nanyang Technological
+ University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798 Singapore},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00477-012-0635-4},
+ issn = {1436-3240},
+ keyword = {Earth and Environmental Science},
+ publisher = {Springer Berlin / Heidelberg}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{yuyang2000,
+ author = {Yu, P. and Yang, T.},
+ title = {Fuzzy multi-objective function for rainfall-runoff model calibration},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2000},
+ volume = {238},
+ pages = {1--14},
+ number = {1-2},
+ abstract = {Continuous rainfall-runoff modeling is essential to simulate the rainfall-runoff
+ relationship in water resource projects. The performance of a rainfall-runoff
+ model heavily depends on suitable choice of model parameters, which
+ are normally calibrated by using an objective function. This study
+ presents a fuzzy multi-objective function (FMOF) to improve the performance
+ of conventional objective functions, such as the root mean square
+ error (RMSE) and the mean absolute percent error (MPE). Daily rainfall
+ and flow discharge measurements, as well as monthly evaporation estimates
+ are used to calibrate and verify a rainfall-runoff model, over a
+ 9-year and a 4-year period, respectively. The model calibrated with
+ RMSE and MPE as objective functions tends to match high and low flow
+ periods, respectively. The FMOF leads to improved simulation of a
+ wide range of flow stages as it can combine various objective functions
+ with different acceptable levels. The method suggested herein is
+ shown to be more appropriate for basins with extremely heterogeneous
+ temporal flow distribution},
+ doi = {10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00317-6},
+ keywords = {Rainfall-runoff model, Objective function, Model calibration, Fuzzy
+ theory},
+ tags = {Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{zakermoshfegh+al2008,
+ author = {Zakermoshfegh, M. and Neyshabouri, S. and Lucas, C.},
+ title = {Automatic Calibration of Lumped Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model
+ Using Particle Swarm Optimization},
+ journal = {Journal of Applied Sciences},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {8},
+ pages = {3703--3708},
+ number = {20},
+ abstract = {The main objective in Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff (CRR) model calibration
+ is to find a set of optimal model parameter values that provides
+ a best fit between observed and estimated flow hydrographs, where
+ the traditional trial and error manual calibration is very tedious
+ and time consuming. Recently in multi dimensional combinatorial optimization
+ problems, meta-heuristic algorithms have shown an encouraging performance
+ with a low computational cost. In this study as a new application
+ of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm, it is applied to
+ automatic calibration of HEC-1 lumped CRR model and the methodology
+ is tested in two example applications: a synthetic hypothetical example
+ and a real case study for the Gorganrood river basin in the north
+ of Iran. The results show encouraging performance of the proposed
+ automated methodology. },
+ doi = {10.3923/jas.2008.3703.3708},
+ tags = {Calibration, PSO}
+}
+
+@MANUAL{hydroGOF,
+ title = {hydroGOF: Goodness-of-fit functions for comparison of simulated and
+ observed hydrological time series},
+ author = {{Zambrano-Bigiarini}, M.},
+ year = {2012},
+ note = {R package version 0.3-2-2},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.03.07},
+ url = {http://www.rforge.net/hydroGOF/, http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/hydroGOF/}
+}
+
+@MANUAL{hydroTSM,
+ title = {hydroTSM: Time series management, analysis and interpolation for
+ hydrological modelling},
+ author = {{Zambrano-Bigiarini}, M.},
+ year = {2012},
+ note = {R package version 0.3-3},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2012.03.22},
+ url = {http://www.rforge.net/hydroTSM/}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{hydroPSO2012,
+ author = {{Zambrano-Bigiarini}, M. and Rojas, R.},
+ title = {{hydroPSO: A model-independent particle swarm optimization software
+ for calibration of environmental models}},
+ journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software},
+ year = {2012},
+ volume = {submitted},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2011.12.02}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{zhang+al2006,
+ author = {Zhang, D. and Beven, K. and Mermoud, A.},
+ title = {A comparison of non--linear least square and {GLUE} for model calibration
+ and uncertainty estimation for pesticide transport in soils},
+ journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {29},
+ pages = {1924--1933},
+ number = {12},
+ abstract = {The problems of calibrating soil hydraulic and transport parameters
+ are well documented, particularly when data are limited. Programs
+ such as CXTFIT, UUCODE and PEST, based on well established principles
+ of statistical inference, will often provide good fits to limited
+ observations giving the impression that a useful model of a particular
+ soil system has been obtained. This may be the case, but such an
+ approach may grossly underestimate the uncertainties associated with
+ future predictions of the system and resulting dependent variables.
+ In this paper, this is illustrated by an application of CXTFIT within
+ the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach
+ to model calibration which is based on a quite different philosophy.
+ CXTFIT gives very good fits to the observed breakthrough curves for
+ several different model formulations, resulting in very small parameter
+ uncertainty estimates. The application of GLUE, however, shows that
+ much wider ranges of parameter values can provide acceptable fits
+ to the data. The wider range of potential outcomes should be more
+ robust in model prediction, especially when used to constrain field
+ scale models.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.advwatres.2006.02.004},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2008.12.03}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{zhang+al2009b,
+ author = {Zhang, X. and Srinivasan, R. and Bosch, D.},
+ title = {Calibration and uncertainty analysis of the {SWAT} model using {G}enetic
+ {A}lgorithms and {B}ayesian {M}odel {A}veraging},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {374},
+ pages = {307},
+ number = {3-4},
+ abstract = {In this paper, the Genetic Algorithms (GA) and Bayesian Model Averaging
+ (BMA) were used to simultaneously conduct calibration and uncertainty
+ analysis for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). In this combined
+ method, several SWAT models with different structures are first selected;
+ next GA is used to calibrate each model using observed streamflow
+ data; finally, BMA is applied to combine the ensemble predictions
+ and provide uncertainty interval estimation. This method was tested
+ in two contrasting basins, the Little River Experimental Basin in
+ Georgia, USA, and the Yellow River Headwater Basin in China. The
+ results obtained in the two case studies show that this combined
+ method can provide deterministic predictions better than or comparable
+ to the best calibrated model using GA. The 66.7\% and 90\% uncertainty
+ intervals estimated by this method were analyzed. The differences
+ between the percentage of coverage of observations and the corresponding
+ expected coverage percentage are within 10\% for both calibration
+ and validation periods in these two test basins. This combined methodology
+ provides a practical and flexible tool to attain reliable deterministic
+ simulation and uncertainty analysis of SWAT},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.023},
+ keywords = {Optimization, Modeling, Basin, Uncertainty, SWAT},
+ tags = {SWAT, Calibration, Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{zhang+al2008a,
+ author = {Zhang, X. and Srinivasan, R. and Debele, B. and Hao, F.},
+ title = {Runoff simulation of the headwaters of the Yellow River using the
+ {SWAT} model with three snowmelt algorithms},
+ journal = {Journal of the American Water Resources Association},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {44},
+ pages = {48--61},
+ abstract = {The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model combined with different
+ snowmelt algorithms was evaluated for runoff simulation of an 114,345
+ km(2) mountainous river basin (the headwaters of the Yellow River),
+ where snowmelt is a significant process. The three snowmelt algorithms
+ incorporated into SWAT were as follows: (1) the temperature-index,
+ (2) the temperature-index plus elevation band, and (3) the energy
+ budget based SNOW17. The SNOW17 is more complex than the temperature-based
+ snowmelt algorithms, and requires more detailed meteorological and
+ topographical inputs. In order to apply the SNOW17 in the SWAT framework,
+ SWAT was modified to operate at the pixel scale rather than the normal
+ Hydrologic Response Unit scale. The three snowmelt algorithms were
+ evaluated under two parameter scenarios, the default and the calibrated
+ parameters scenarios. Under the default parameters scenario, the
+ parameter values were determined based on a review of the current
+ literature. The purpose of this type of evaluation was to assess
+ the applicability of SWAT in ungauged basins, where there is little
+ observed data available for calibration. Under the calibrated parameters
+ scenario, the parameters were calibrated using an automatic calibration
+ program, the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE-UA). The purpose of
+ this type of evaluation was to assess the applicability of SWAT in
+ gauged basins. Two time periods (1975-1985 and 1986-1990) of monthly
+ runoff data were used in this study to evaluate the performance of
+ SWAT with different snowmelt algorithms. Under the default parameters
+ scenario, the SWAT model with complex energy budget based SNOW17
+ performed the best for both time periods. Under the calibrated parameters
+ scenario, the parameters were calibrated using monthly runoff from
+ 1975-1985 and validated using monthly runoff from 1986-1990. After
+ parameter calibration, the performance of SWAT with the three snowmelt
+ algorithms was improved from the default parameters scenario. Further,
+ the SWAT model with temperature-index plus elevation band performed
+ as well as the SWAT model with SNOW17. The SWAT model with temperature-index
+ algorithm performed the poorest for both time periods under both
+ scenarios. Therefore, it is suggested that the SNOW17 model be used
+ for modeling ungauged basins; however, for gauged basins, the SNOW17
+ and simple temperature-index plus elevation band models could provide
+ almost equally good runoff simulation results.},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1752-1688.2007.00137.x},
+ keywords = {Yellow River, SWAT, runoff, snow hydrology, simulation, GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION,
+ TEMPERATURE, INDEX, CALIBRATION, HYDROLOGY, RADIATION, TERRAIN, BASINS},
+ tags = {Lapse Rate}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{zhangsrinivasan+al2010,
+ author = {Zhang, X. and Srinivasan, R. and {Van Liew}, M.},
+ title = {On the use of multi-algorithm, genetically adaptive multi-objective
+ method for multi-site calibration of the {SWAT} model},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {24},
+ pages = {955--969},
+ number = {8},
+ abstract = {With the availability of spatially distributed data, distributed hydrologic
+ models are increasingly used for simulation of spatially varied hydrologic
+ processes to understand and manage natural and human activities that
+ affect watershed systems. Multi-objective optimization methods have
+ been applied to calibrate distributed hydrologic models using observed
+ data from multiple sites. As the time consumed by running these complex
+ models is increasing substantially, selecting efficient and effective
+ multi-objective optimization algorithms is becoming a nontrivial
+ issue. In this study, we evaluated a multi-algorithm, genetically
+ adaptive multi-objective method (AMALGAM) for multi-site calibration
+ of a distributed hydrologic model - Soil and Water Assessment Tool
+ (SWAT), and compared its performance with two widely used evolutionary
+ multi-objective optimization (EMO) algorithms (i.e. Strength Pareto
+ Evolutionary Algorithm 2 (SPEA2) and Non-dominated Sorted Genetic
+ Algorithm II (NSGA-II)). In order to provide insights into each method's
+ overall performance, these three methods were tested in four watersheds
+ with various characteristics. The test results indicate that the
+ AMALGAM can consistently provide competitive or superior results
+ compared with the other two methods. The multi-method search framework
+ of AMALGAM, which can flexibly and adaptively utilize multiple optimization
+ algorithms, makes it a promising tool for multi-site calibration
+ of the distributed SWAT. For practical use of AMALGAM, it is suggested
+ to implement this method in multiple trials with relatively small
+ number of model runs rather than run it once with long iterations.
+ In addition, incorporating different multi-objective optimization
+ algorithms and multi-mode search operators into AMALGAM deserves
+ further research},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.7528},
+ keywords = {Keywords:distributed hydrologic model, multi-method search, multi-objective
+ optimization, multi-site calibration, soil and water assessment tool},
+ tags = {SWAT, Calibration, PSO}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{zhang+al2008b,
+ author = {Zhang, X. and Srinivasan, R. and {Van Liew}, M.},
+ title = {Multi-Site Calibration of The {SWAT} Model For Hydrologic Modeling},
+ journal = {Transactions of the ASABE},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {51},
+ pages = {2039--2049},
+ number = {6},
+ abstract = {The growing popularity of applying complex, semi-physically based
+ distributed hydrologic models to solve water resource problems poses
+ important issues that must be addressed related to the use of spatial
+ data to calibrate and validate such models. In this study, a single-objective
+ optimization method (GA) and a multi-objective optimization algorithm
+ (SPEA2) were applied to optimize the parameters of the Soil and Water
+ Assessment Tool (SWAT) using observed streamflow data at three monitoring
+ sites within the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed, Idaho. Results
+ indicated that different optimization schemes can lead to substantially
+ different objective function values, parameter solutions, and corresponding
+ simulated hydrographs. Thus, the selection of an optimization scheme
+ can potentially impact modeled streamflow. Parameters estimated by
+ optimizing the objective function at three monitoring sites consistently
+ produced better goodness-of-fit than those obtained by optimization
+ at a single monitoring site. This stresses the importance of collecting
+ detailed, spatially distributed data to conduct simultaneous multi-site
+ calibrations. When applied with multi-site data, the single-objective
+ (GA) method better identified parameter solutions in the calibration
+ period, but the multi-objective (SPEA2) method performed better in
+ the validation period. Overall, the application of different optimization
+ schemes in the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed demonstrated
+ that the single-objective (GA) and the multi-objective (SPEA2) optimization
+ methods can provide promising results for multi-site calibration
+ and validation of the SWAT model. These results are expected to help
+ the users of SWAT and other distributed hydrologic models understand
+ the sensitivity of distributed hydrologic simulation to different
+ calibration methods and to demonstrate the advantages and disadvantages
+ of single-objective and multi-objective parameter estimation methods.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2004WR003695.},
+ keywords = {Automatic calibration, Distributed hydrologic model, Multi-objective
+ optimization, Multi-site calibration, SWAT, MULTIOBJECTIVE EVOLUTIONARY
+ ALGORITHMS, SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS, GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION, RIVER-BASIN,
+ SIMULATION, VALIDATION, WATERSHEDS, CATCHMENT, EFFICIENT, POINT},
+ tags = {SWAT, Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{zhang+al2009a,
+ author = {Zhang, X. and Srinivasan, R. and Zhao, K. and {Van Liew}, M.},
+ title = {Evaluation of global optimization algorithms for parameter calibration
+ of a computationally intensive hydrologic model},
+ journal = {Hydrological Processes},
+ year = {2009},
+ volume = {23},
+ pages = {430--441},
+ number = {3},
+ abstract = {With the popularity of complex hydrologic models. the time taken to
+ run these models is increasing substantially. Comparing and evaluating
+ the efficacy of different optimization algorithms; for calibrating
+ computationally intensive hydrologic models is becoming, a nontrivial
+ issue. In this study, live global optimization algorithms (genetic
+ algorithms. shuffled complex evolution, particle swarm optimization,
+ differential evolution, and artificial immune system) were tested
+ for automatic parameter calibration of a complex hydrologic model,
+ Soil and Water Assessment Too] (SWAT), in four watersheds. The results
+ show that genetic algorithms (GA) outperform the other four algorithms
+ given model evaluation numbers larger than 2000. while particle swarm
+ optimization (PSO) call obtain better parameter solutions than other
+ algorithms given fewer number of model runs (less than 2000). Given
+ limited computational time, the PSO algorithm is preferred, while
+ GA should be chosen given plenty of computational resources. When
+ applying GA and PSO for parameter optimization of SWAT, small population
+ Size should be chosen. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley \& Sons, Ltd.},
+ doi = {10.1002/hyp.7152},
+ keywords = {global optimization algorithm, calibration, hydrologic model, SWAT,
+ computational intensive, IMMUNE-BASED OPTIMIZATION, RAINFALL-RUNOFF
+ MODELS, DIFFERENTIAL EVOLUTION, CATCHMENT MODELS, SWAT MODEL, RIVER,
+ SIMULATION, HEADWATERS, MANAGEMENT, SYSTEM},
+ tags = {SWAT, Calibration}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{zhang+al2008,
+ author = {Zhang, X. and Wagener, T. and Reed, P. and Bhushan, R.},
+ title = {Reducing uncertainty in predictions in ungauged basins by combining
+ hydrologic indices regionalization and multiobjective optimization},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {44},
+ pages = {W00B04},
+ abstract = {Approaches to predictions in ungauged basins have so far mainly focused
+ on a priori parameter estimates from physical watershed characteristics
+ or on the regionalization of model parameters. Recent studies suggest
+ that the regionalization of hydrologic indices (e.g., streamflow
+ characteristics) provides an additional way to extrapolate information
+ about the expected watershed response to ungauged locations for use
+ in continuous watershed modeling. This study contributes a novel
+ multiobjective framework for identifying behavioral parameter ensembles
+ for ungauged basins using suites of regionalized hydrologic indices.
+ The new formulation enables the use of multiobjective optimization
+ algorithms for the identification of model ensembles for predictions
+ in ungauged basins for the first time. Application of the new formulation
+ to 30 watersheds located in England and Wales and comparison of the
+ results with a Monte Carlo approach demonstrate that the new formulation
+ will significantly advance our ability to reduce the uncertainty
+ of predictions in ungauged basins.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2008WR006833},
+ tags = {Regionalization, Calibration, Uncertainty}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{zhangyuhu2005,
+ author = {Zhang, {L-P} and Yu, {H-J} and Hu, {S-Xu}},
+ title = {Optimal choice of parameters for particle swarm optimization},
+ journal = {Journal of Zhejiang University SCIENCE},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {6A},
+ pages = {528},
+ number = {6},
+ doi = {10.1631/jzus.2005.A0528},
+ tags = {Calibration, PSO}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{DEPSO2003,
+ author = {Zhangn, {W-J} and Xie, {X-F}},
+ title = {DEPSO: hybrid particle swarm with differential evolution operator},
+ journal = {IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics},
+ year = {2003},
+ volume = {4},
+ pages = {3816--3821},
+ number = {0},
+ doi = {10.1109/ICSMC.2003.1244483},
+ tags = {Calibration, PSO}
+}
+
+@INCOLLECTION{zhao2006,
+ author = {Zhao, B.},
+ title = {An Improved Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm for Global Numerical
+ Optimization},
+ booktitle = {Computational {S}cience - {ICCS} 2006},
+ publisher = {Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg},
+ year = {2006},
+ editor = {Vassil Alexandrov and Geert van Albada and Peter Sloot and Jack Dongarra},
+ volume = {3991},
+ series = {Lecture Notes in Computer Science},
+ pages = {657--664},
+ abstract = {This paper presents an improved particle swarm optimization algorithm
+ (IPSO) for global numerical optimization. The IPSO uses more particles{'}
+ information to control the mutation operation. A new adaptive strategy
+ for choosing parameters is also proposed to assure convergence of
+ the IPSO. Meanwhile, we execute the IPSO to solve eight benchmark
+ problems. The results show that the IPSO is superior to some existing
+ methods for finding the best solution, in terms of both solution
+ quality and algorithm robustness.},
+ highlights = {IPSO, ipso},
+ tags = {PSO, Calibration}
+}
+
+@BOOK{zheng2002,
+ title = {Applied contaminant transport modelling: {T}heory and practice},
+ publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons, Inc.},
+ year = {2002},
+ author = {Zheng, C. and Bennett, G.},
+ pages = {621},
+ address = {New York},
+ edition = {Second},
+ owner = {RRojas},
+ timestamp = {2009.03.25}
+}
+
+@INPROCEEDINGS{zheng+al2003,
+ author = {Zheng, {Y-L} and Ma, {L-H} and Zhang, {L-Y} and Qian, {J-X}},
+ title = {On the convergence analysis and parameter selection in particle swarm
+ optimization},
+ booktitle = {Machine Learning and Cybernetics, 2003 International Conference on},
+ year = {2003},
+ pages = {1802--1807},
+ abstract = {A PSO with increasing inertia weight, distinct from a widely used
+ PSO with decreasing inertia weight, is proposed in this paper. Far
+ from drawing conclusions from sole empirical study or rule of thumb,
+ this algorithm is derived from particle trajectory study and convergence
+ analysis. Four standard test functions are used to confirm its validity
+ finally. From the experiments, it is clear that a PSO with increasing
+ inertia weight outperforms the one with decreasing inertia weight,
+ both in convergent speed and solution precision, with no additional
+ computing load.},
+ doi = {10.1109/ICMLC.2003.1259789},
+ keywords = {convergence analysis, inertia weight, parameter selection, particle
+ swarm optimization, particle trajectory study, thumb rule, convergence,
+ optimisation, search problems},
+ tags = {Calibration, PSO}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{zhou+al2012,
+ author = {Q. Zhou and P.S. Mikkelsen and K. Halsnæs and K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen},
+ title = {Framework for economic pluvial flood risk assessment considering
+ climate change effects and adaptation benefits},
+ journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
+ year = {2012},
+ volume = {414–415},
+ pages = {539--549},
+ number = {0},
+ abstract = {Summary Climate change is likely to affect the water cycle by influencing
+ the precipitation patterns. It is important to integrate the anticipated
+ changes into the design of urban drainage in response to the increased
+ risk level in cities. This paper presents a pluvial flood risk assessment
+ framework to identify and assess adaptation options in the urban
+ context. An integrated approach is adopted by incorporating climate
+ change impact assessment, flood inundation modeling, economic tool,
+ and risk assessment, hereby developing a step-by-step process for
+ cost-benefit assessment of climate change adaptation measures. A
+ Danish case study indicates that the introduced framework presented
+ in the paper can be considered as an important decision support tool
+ that can supplement and further develop existing decision practices
+ in relation to urban drainage.},
+ doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.11.031},
+ issn = {0022-1694},
+ keywords = {Flood risk assessment}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{zierlbugmann2005,
+ author = {Zierl, B. and Bugmann, H.},
+ title = {Global change impacts on hydrological processes in {A}lpine catchments},
+ journal = {Water Resources Research},
+ year = {2005},
+ volume = {41},
+ pages = {W02028},
+ abstract = {This analysis assesses the impacts of global change on hydrological
+ processes in Alpine catchments. We applied the regional hydroecological
+ simulation system RHESSys to five case studies from different climatic
+ zones in the European Alps. Seven scenarios based on the so-called
+ SRES emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
+ Change were used to describe changes in climate and land use. Shifts
+ in runoff regimes and annual and summer runoff were investigated.
+ The focus was on analyzing differences in the hydrological responses
+ of different Alpine climate zones, exploring differences between
+ SRES scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1, and B2), and analyzing the importance
+ of applying several global circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM2, CSIRO2,
+ and PCM). Under all scenarios, rising temperatures were projected
+ to strongly affect runoff regimes via the impact on snow cover. The
+ overall effect is a substantial runoff regime shift across the Alps,
+ with specific differences depending on the climatic zone considered.},
+ doi = {10.1029/2004WR003447},
+ tags = {Uncertainty, Impacts}
+}
+
+@ARTICLE{zimmerman2008,
+ author = {Zimmerman, J. and Michelcic, J. and Smith, J.},
+ title = {Global stressors on water quality and quantity},
+ journal = {Environmental Science \& Technology},
+ year = {2008},
+ volume = {42},
+ pages = {4247--4254},
+ number = {12},
+ month = {June},
+ doi = {10.1021/es0871457},
+ owner = {rojasro},
+ timestamp = {2009.08.10}
+}
+
+@BOOK{bates+al2008,
+ title = {Climate Change and Water},
+ publisher = {{T}echnical {P}aper of the {I}ntergovernmental {P}anel on {C}limate
+ {C}hange, {IPCC} {S}ecretariat},
+ year = {2008},
+ editor = {Bates, B. and Kundzewicz, Z. and Wu,S. and Palutikof, J.},
+ pages = {210},
+ address = {Geneva},
+ tags = {IPCC}
+}
+
--
GitLab